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260409.mbx T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R L A T I N A M E R I C A Thursday, April 9, 2026, Vol. 27, No. 71 Headlines A R G E N T I N A ARGENTINA: Rising Fuel Prices Test Milei's Free‑Market Gamble PLUNIMAR SA: Declared Bankrupt by Commercial Court B A H A M A S BAHAMAS: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable B R A Z I L AEGEA SANEAMENTO: Fitch Lowers IDR to 'BB-', On Watch Negative BRAZIL: IDB OKs $80M Loan to Support Rio Grande State MSME Recovery CAIXA ECONOMICA: Moody's Affirms Ba1 Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable RELIZ TECHNOLOGY: Retains Ordinary Course Professionals E C U A D O R BOLIVARIANO DPR: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Rating on Series 2024-1 Notes M E X I C O MEXICO: IDB OKs $8MM Grant for Small Rural Producers X X X X X X X X LATIN AMERICA: Chile Hardest Hit by Rising Fuel Prices - - - - - ================= A R G E N T I N A ================= ARGENTINA: Rising Fuel Prices Test Milei's Free‑Market Gamble --------------------------------------------------------------- Lucinda Elliott and Eliana Raszewski, writing for Reuters, report that the global surge in fuel prices is exposing how unevenly South America is positioned to absorb the shock, with Argentina's radical free‑market experiment under President Javier Milei facing particular pressure. The price surge is hitting Argentines' transport, food and household costs, undermining Milei's argument that he is winning a fight with what had been runaway inflation through deep spending cuts and deregulation, according to Reuters. In what has been posing a challenge to Milei's inflation-slayer narrative, monthly inflation has stalled near 3% for nine months, or about 33% annually, and private forecasters were already raising 2026 estimates before crude prices surged in February, says the report. "The Iran shock has arrived at the worst possible moment for Milei’s counter‑inflation program," the report quotes Mariano Machado, Americas analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, as saying. Reuters says gasoline prices in Argentina are up about 15% on average since late February, according to energy analyst Fernando Bazan at consultancy Abeceb, putting Milei's goal of pushing monthly inflation below 1% by mid‑year increasingly out of reach. Two weeks ago, ‌officials have ⁠relaxed gasoline quality standards and postponed a tax hike on fuel, though Bazan said the impact will be limited, the report relays. An Argentine government source told Reuters that no further measures were being contemplated and energy subsidies must remain capped at 0.5% of GDP this year to meet fiscal targets. At the center of the dilemma is state energy firm YPF which dominates Argentina's fuel market and has so far raised prices more cautiously than global benchmarks, Reuters relates. "If oil is at $120 or $150 per barrel, then YPF's shareholders will pressure management to maximize returns," said financial advisor Paula Bujia, the report notes. Despite repeated assurances that ⁠price pressures would be transitory, YPF late on Wednesday, April 1, introduced a 45‑day buffer on gasoline prices, aiming to shield households from volatility in global markets, Reuters says. "During this period, YPF will not pass on the impact of new fluctuations in Brent prices to consumers," the report quotes Chief Executive Horacio Marin as telling local media, adding that the measure was "not a price cap" and prices would remain constant. Reuters notes that Argentina's position is structurally stronger ⁠than a decade ago. Development of the Vaca Muerta shale formation has turned a nearly $7 billion energy deficit in 2013 into a surplus. Still, the country remains reliant on natural gas imports during peak winter demand, which begins in June. The experience elsewhere in the region underscores the political risks Milei faces, the report relays. "A fuel price shock impacts an electorate lacking financial leeway, turning economic discomfort into a political grievance," Machado said -- one that could "provide the glue" for Argentina's fragmented opposition ahead of the 2027 presidential race, the report adds. About Argentina Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position. Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution and in the recent decades, increasing poverty. In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion, or 1000 percent of quota) -- with an approved immediate disbursement of an equivalent of US$9.65 billion. Argentina's IMF-supported program sought to improve public finances and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a multi-pronged strategy. On April 11, 2025, the IMF further approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling US$20 billion (or 479 percent of quota), with an immediate disbursement of US$12 billion, and a first review planned for June 2025 with an associated disbursement of about US$2 billion. The program is expected to help catalyze additional official multilateral and bilateral support, and a timely re-access to international capital markets. S&P Global Ratings on Dec. 17, 2025, raised its local currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC+/C' from 'SD/SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'CCC' and affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. In addition, S&P raised its issue ratings on local currency bonds to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. S&P's 'B-' transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged. Moody's Ratings on July 17, 2025, upgraded Argentina's long-term foreign currency and local currency issuer ratings to Caa1 from Caa3 and changed the outlook to stable from positive. Fitch Ratings, on May 12, 2025, upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign-Currency and Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC in November 2024. PLUNIMAR SA: Declared Bankrupt by Commercial Court -------------------------------------------------- Noticias Ambientales reports that the commercial court declared the bankruptcy of Plunimar S.A., the operating company of the Aquarium of Mar del Plata. Consequently, the process revealed an issue that goes beyond financial matters: the sale of animals. Currently, 66 animals remain on the premises under judicial administration, notes the report. Among them are penguins and sea lions that require constant attention. Additionally, the case is being processed in the National Commercial Court No. 20. Thus, a scenario has opened where the priority is not only economic but also environmental, the report says. Before the bankruptcy, the company attempted to sell several specimens, the report recalls. Among the completed operations, the transfer of dolphins to Egypt for a sum of $800,000 stands out, which, as stated in the case, was used to pay salaries, feed the animals, and cover other operating expenses. Additionally, there were proposals from Mexico, China, and Sao Paulo. However, none were finalized. This is partly due to environmental and sanitary regulations, the report says. Therefore, the trade of marine fauna involves complex and highly controlled processes. Consequently, the fate of the animals remains undefined, the report relays. Now, the resolution depends on the progress of the judicial file. Causes of the Closure of the Aquarium of Mar del Plata According to the report, the economic deterioration accelerated after the closure of the park in March of last year. At that time, the company failed to renew the lease of the premises. As a result, it lost its main source of income: ticket sales. Additionally, there was the added obligation to vacate the space, relates the report. Moreover, the company declared cessation of payments in January. This included salary and financial defaults. Furthermore, the crisis of the Dolphin group, its international controller, worsened the situation, notes Noticias Ambientales. The lack of support ultimately created a scenario of unviability. Consequently, the combination of closure, debts, and lack of financing led to the bankruptcy. An Uncertain Future Under Judicial Control The report states that as the process progresses, the priority is to maintain the care of the animals. However, the available resources are limited. Furthermore, the premises must be vacated within a limited timeframe. This adds pressure on the decisions to be made. Therefore, the court must define viable alternatives. Among them, possible transfers to specialized centers, says the report. Finally, the case of the Aquarium of Mar del Plata leaves a key lesson. The conservation of fauna requires planning, responsibility, and solid environmental policies, the report adds. ============= B A H A M A S ============= BAHAMAS: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable ---------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Commonwealth of The Bahamas Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. The ratings reflect the Commonwealth of The Bahamas's high GDP per capita and strong governance, as reflected in recent progress on structural fiscal consolidation. These strengths are offset by low potential growth, heavy reliance on tourism and the country's exposure to climate-related shocks. The ratings are also constrained by high interest and debt burdens relative to peers, although these are improving from ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts. Key Rating Drivers Solid Economy Begins to Taper: The Bahamas economy continues to grow, expanding by 2.8% in 2025. While this expansion reflects a slowdown from an upward revision to 3.4% in 2024 and the 8.7% average in 2021-2024, it is well-above estimated potential of around 1.5% and the pre-pandemic average of 1.0%. Fitch forecasts growth will slow further to 2.2% in 2026, given a slowdown in the tourism industry. Short-term risks are skewed to the downside in light of the global energy price shock and its potential effect on tourism through higher costs, particularly fuel for airlines and cruises, and weakened demand from tourists if the U.S. economy slows materially. The Bahamas could benefit from mitigating factors, including its proximity the U.S., its leading position as a cruise destination, and its safety. Tourism is Economic Backbone: The Bahamas is one of the most tourism-dependent economies, with the sector directly accounting for 40% of GDP. Tourism arrivals have grown to an all-time high, expanding 11.5% in 2025 to 12.5 million. The main driver is a continuous expansion of the cruise industry, which benefits from the proximity to the U.S. and The Bahamas's archipelago geography. Growth, however, has tapered as the post-pandemic rebound has come to an end and capacity constraints, including a reduced room count, cap upward momentum. Fitch expects growth to continue at a slower rate, although the economy remains highly exposed to U.S. economic cycles. Structural Constraints: Like many Caribbean economies, potential growth is hindered by longstanding structural constraints, including difficulties in doing business, high costs, labor market inefficiencies, and demographic challenges such as emigration and aging. An ambitious energy reform is under development and may contribute to some modest offset to these constraints by lowering high energy costs and improving the electric grid over the short-term. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates these reforms may contribute an additional 0.5ppts to GDP by 2035. Fiscal Consolidation Continues: Government finances continue to improve, with the deficit shrinking to 0.5% of GDP in the fiscal YE June 2025 (FY24/25), the smallest since 2001 and a fraction of the pre-pandemic average of 3.7%. The government budgeted for the first-ever surplus of 0.5% of GDP in FY25/26. However, Fitch assumes a modest deficit of 0.5%, given uncertainty, the oil price shock, and a tourism slowdown. In December 2025, the government locked in the fuel price at $70 per barrel (bbl) for one year through a hedging arrangement, minimizing risks from the price spike. Fitch expects consolidation to gradually move the balance into surplus in the medium term. Revenue Growth Drives Consolidation: Fiscal consolidation has mainly reflected revenue outperformance, which grew 10.7% in FY24/25, despite cuts to the value-added tax (VAT) on unprepared foods. The new domestic minimum top-up tax will contribute an estimated USD130 million (0.8% of GDP) going forward. Improved tax administration, digitalization, and reduction of fiscal leakages, particularly from previously unaccounted-for activity in the cruise industry, have led to increased revenue buoyancy with respect to economic growth. The replacement of the business license fee with a potential corporate income tax, which is under consideration, may drive growth, although a broad personal income tax, as recommended by the IMF, is not politically feasible. Debt is High but Improving: General government gross debt (GGGD) increased marginally to 75.3% of GDP in FY24/25. However, Fitch expects it to resume its gradual decline, shrinking to 71.8% by FY26/27. This marks an improvement from a peak of 89.5% in FY19/20 but is still considerably higher than the 'BB'-median of 52% in 2025. Without faster fiscal consolidation or stronger economic growth than Fitch's baseline assumes, The Bahamas will struggle to meet its main debt anchor of 50% of GDP by FY30/31. Contingent Liabilities: The Bahamas is exposed to contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Although SOE debt has declined from a peak of 13.7% of GDP in 2018, it is still high at 9%, and direct transfers have increased. Of the total SOE debt, the government explicitly guarantees 1.9% of GDP, which may nearly double if a plan to purchase the Grand Bahama Power Company proceeds. The government is also exposed to spending pressures and liabilities from public-private partnerships (PPPs,) although the scope is unclear. These include traditional PPPs, which could become a contingent liability, and non-revenue generating infrastructure projects that pose off-balance-sheet liabilities and budgetary costs. Vulnerability to Shocks: The Bahamas is also exposed to external shocks, including global prices and the U.S. economic cycle, as well as hurricanes. It is a highly import-dependent economy, with a large current account deficit of 10% of GDP, and has minimal monetary policy. The archipelago geography mitigates hurricane risk, as the tourism sector is spread across multiple islands. The government has also implemented a fiscal risk strategy, which includes insurance, contingency lines and other fiscal tools, to provide resources following a potential hurricane. ESG - Governance: The Bahamas has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5[+]' for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in its proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. The Bahamas has a high WBGI ranking at 69.6, reflecting its long track record of stable and peaceful political transitions, well established rights for participation in the political process, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade - Public Finances: A renewed rise in debt and interest burdens, for example, driven by an economic shock or a reversal in ongoing fiscal consolidation or evidence of financing challenges; - External Finances: An adverse tourism or weather shock that undermines foreign reserve levels and the external position. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade - Public Finances: Further fiscal consolidation that delivers a material reduction in debt and interest burdens; - External Finances: Policies that allow for accumulation of substantial buffers against external shocks, such as hurricanes; - Macro: Improved investment and growth prospects and evidence of greater economic diversification. Sovereign Rating Model (SRM) and Qualitative Overlay (QO) Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns The Bahamas a score equivalent to a rating of 'BB+' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR scale. Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its QO, relative to SRM data and output, as follows: - Public Finances: -1 notch, to reflect fiscal financing constraints and a high government debt burden. The SRM is estimated on the basis of a linear approach to government debt/GDP and does not fully capture the risk at high debt levels. Financing needs remain high, and financing options limited and costly in regard to external market financing. - External Finances: -1 notch, to reflect vulnerability to external shocks, stemming from exposure to natural disasters and high dependence on tourism, and limited policy flexibility and buffers to manage such shocks. The economy also has a large current account deficit and high net external debt and has resorted to capital controls. Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within its criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM. Debt Instruments: Key Rating Drivers Senior Unsecured Debt Equalized: The senior unsecured long-term debt ratings are equalized with the applicable long-term IDR, as Fitch assumes recoveries will be 'average' when the sovereign's long-term IDRs is 'BB-' and above. No Recovery Ratings are assigned at this rating level. See Rating Actions table below for the full set of instrument ratings. Country Ceiling The Country Ceiling for The Bahamas is 'BB- in line with the LT FC IDR. This reflects no material constraints and incentives, relative to the IDR, against capital or exchange controls being imposed that would prevent or significantly impede the private sector from converting local currency into foreign currency and transferring the proceeds to non-resident creditors to service debt payments. Fitch's Country Ceiling Model produced a starting point uplift of 0 notches above the IDR. Fitch's rating committee did not apply a qualitative adjustment to the model result. Climate Vulnerability Signals The Bahamas has an elevated Climate Vulnerability Signal (Climate.VS) of 50 in 2035, mainly reflecting its exposure to physical risks including more frequent and severe storms and sea level rise. The impact of current climatic conditions as well as the current cost of decarbonizing the economy are reflected in the SRM. In recognition of these climate risks Fitch has adjusted the SRM output as described in the SRM and QO section above. ESG Considerations The Bahamas has an ESG Relevance Score of '5[+]' for Political Stability and Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As The Bahamas has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile. The Bahamas has an ESG Relevance Score of '5[+]' for Rule of Law, Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key rating driver with a high weight. As The Bahamas has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicators, this has a positive impact on the credit profile. The Bahamas has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Human Rights and Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the World Bank Governance Indicators is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. As The Bahamas has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile. The Bahamas has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Creditor Rights as willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and is a rating driver for The Bahamas, as for all sovereigns. As The Bahamas has track record of 20+ years without a restructuring of public debt as captured in its SRM variable, this has a positive impact on the credit profile. The Bahamas has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Natural Disasters and Climate Change as frequent hurricanes are a vulnerability for public and external finances, which has a negative impact on the credit profile, is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. Entity/Debt Rating Prior ----------- ------ ----- The Commonwealth of the Bahamas LT IDR BB- Affirmed BB- ST IDR B Affirmed B LC LT IDR BB- Affirmed BB- LC ST IDR B Affirmed B Country Ceiling BB- Affirmed BB- senior unsecured LT BB- Affirmed BB- =========== B R A Z I L =========== AEGEA SANEAMENTO: Fitch Lowers IDR to 'BB-', On Watch Negative -------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has downgraded Aegea Saneamento e Participacoes S.A.'s (Aegea) Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'BB-' from 'BB' and the National Long Term Rating (NLTR) of the company and its debenture issuances to 'A+(bra)' from 'AA(bra)'. In addition, Fitch has downgraded Aegea Finance S.a. r.l. (Aegea Finance)'s senior unsecured notes to 'BB-' from 'BB'. Fitch placed all of the ratings for Aegea and its subsidiaries on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The downgrade reflects Fitch's reassessment of Aegea's management and governance considerations following the company's failure to publish its annual financial statements by the March 31 deadline. Fitch views this delay as evidence of weaker financial information quality and transparency, resulting in a governance-related negative rating impact. Fitch also downgraded Aegea's Management Quality subfactor to 'bb+' from 'bbb'. This is reflected in an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Financial Transparency and indicates issues with management effectiveness and risk controls, although the full extent of the impact remains unclear. Fitch expects the financial statements to be published within the next few days and within the cure period under certain debt indentures, which would avoid the need for additional waiver requests from debtholders. Failure to do so would trigger further review and could have negative rating implications. The RWN reflects the potential for further negative rating action if Aegea does not publish its financial statements within the applicable cure period. It also captures uncertainty regarding the effect of the delay on the company's access to financing and financial flexibility, both of which are important to its credit profile. Aegea depends on access to competitively priced capital to support business growth and maintain competitiveness. The RWN for Aegea's subsidiaries reflects the negative rating action on the parent. Fitch will reassess parent and subsidiary linkage in the coming weeks, which may result in a further downgrade for the subsidiaries. Key Rating Drivers ESG - Governance Assessment Weakened: Fitch reassessed Aegea's financial information quality and transparency after the company failed to publish its annual financial statements. This reassessment resulted in a one-notch negative rating impact (-1), reflecting deficiencies in financial transparency and disclosure practices. Fitch expects the company to publish the statements within the next few days and within the cure period defined in certain debt indentures, which would avoid the need for additional waiver requests from debtholders. Management Quality: Fitch downgraded Aegea's Management Quality subfactor to bb+ from bbb after the company did not file its financial statements on time. This issue is also reflected in a financial transparency ESG score of 5. The downgrade indicates concerns about management effectiveness and/or stability, as well as potential risk management weaknesses, although the extent of the impact remains unclear. Rating Watch Negative: The Rating Watch Negative reflects the potential for a downgrade if the company does not provide timely financial statements within the cure period. It also captures uncertainty around how this event could affect the company's access to financing, which has supported its rating, business growth, and overall competitiveness. Aegea relies on access to competitively priced capital to fund growth. Fitch estimates that EBITDA-to-interest coverage will average 2.0x over the rating horizon. Further deterioration in this metric could pressure the rating, while a higher cost of capital could weaken the competitiveness of the company's ongoing growth projects. Peer Analysis Aegea's Local Currency IDR is two notches below Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (Sabesp; BB+/Stable). Sabesp has stronger governance, lower leverage and more predictable cash generation due to its more mature operations. In contrast, Aegea has a more diversified portfolio of concessions in terms of geography, which reduces operational and regulatory risk. Both Aegea and Sabesp have strong EBITDA margins, although Sabesp, as the country's largest water and wastewater utility, benefits from economies of scale and has improved efficiency after its recent privatization. Transmissora Alianca de Energia Eletrica S.A. (BB+/Stable), a power transmission company, has a better credit profile than Aegea due to its more predictable cash flow, strong financial profile and lower regulatory risk. Its governance is also stronger than Aegea's. Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool (CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP): - Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative importance): Management (bb, Moderate), Sector Characteristics (bbb-, Moderate), Market and Competitive Positioning (bbb, Lower), Diversification and Asset Quality (bbb+, Moderate), Company Operational Characteristics (bb+, Moderate), Profitability (bb-, Higher), Financial Structure (bbb-, Moderate), and Financial Flexibility (bb-, Higher). - The quantitative financial subfactors are based on standard CRT financial period parameters: 20% weight for the latest historical year 2024, 40% for the forecast year 2025 and 40% for the forecast year 2026. - The Governance assessment of 'Some Deficiencies' results in an adjustment of -1 notch. - The Operating Environment assessment of 'bb' results in no adjustment. - The SCP is 'bb-'. To derive the IDR: - Fitch made no adjustments to the SCP, resulting in Local and Foreign Currency IDRs of 'BB-'. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade - Failure to restore adequate quality and timing of financial disclosure within the next few days; - Further weakening in governance or financial transparency; - Deterioration of the liquidity profile on a consolidated and standalone basis or weaker financial flexibility; - Restated 2024 financial statements and/or reported 2025 results that show credit metrics materially weaker than Fitch previously estimated and no longer consistent with the current ratings. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade - Removal of the RWN depends on publication of the delayed financial statements and restoration of timely, adequate financial disclosures. Liquidity and Debt Structure Fitch will monitor the company's capacity to sustain its strong liquidity profile and financial flexibility, which has been supported by local and international debt market access. By end-September 2025, Aegea's total adjusted debt was BRL34.8 billion on a consolidated basis, while cash and equivalents were BRL5.3 billion, compared with BRL3.9 billion of short-term debt. Issuer Profile Aegea operates water/wastewater concessions across 865 municipalities in 15 Brazilian states through long-term contractual agreements. The company is majority-owned by Equipav Group (52.8%), with additional ownership held by GIC, a Singaporean sovereign fund (34.3%), and Itausa S.A. (12.9%). MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items included. Climate Vulnerability Signals The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated risk for Aegea Saneamento e Participacoes S.A. ESG Considerations Aegea Saneamento e Participacoes S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Financial Transparency due to late fillings of its 2025 financials, which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is highly relevant to the rating, resulting in an implicitly lower rating and placement on Rating Watch Negative. The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. Entity/Debt Rating Prior ----------- ------ ----- Aegea Saneamento e Participacoes S.A. LT IDR BB- Downgrade BB LC LT IDR BB- Downgrade BB Natl LT A+(bra) Downgrade AA(bra) senior unsecured Natl LT A+(bra) Downgrade AA(bra) Aguas de Teresina Saneamento SPE S.A. Natl LT AA(bra) Rating Watch On AA(bra) senior unsecured Natl LT AA(bra) Rating Watch On AA(bra) Companhia Riograndense de Saneamento Corsan Natl LT AA(bra) Rating Watch On AA(bra) senior unsecured Natl LT AA(bra) Rating Watch On AA(bra) senior secured Natl LT AA(bra) Rating Watch On AA(bra) Prolagos S.A. – Concessionaria de Servicos Publicos de Agua e Esgoto Natl LT AA(bra) Rating Watch On AA(bra) BRAZIL: IDB OKs $80M Loan to Support Rio Grande State MSME Recovery ------------------------------------------------------------------- The Board of Executive Directors of the Inter‑American Development Bank (IDB) has approved an $80 million investment loan to Banco Regional de Desenvolvimento do Extremo Sul (BRDE) to support the financing of critical infrastructure and the recovery of micro, small, and medium‑sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul State. The project, Prosul Reergue Sul, is expected to promote investments by easing credit constraints. It will enable construction and strengthen the resilience to withstand future natural disasters and support the recovery of MSMEs’ production of goods and services in areas affected by flooding in 2024. Up to 7% of MSME financing is expected to be directed to women-led businesses. Direct beneficiaries of the program will include developers of small-scale critical infrastructure projects in the transportation, energy, and water sectors, as well as MSMEs with annual revenues of up to R$300 million that have been directly or indirectly affected by extreme weather events in the state. The broader population of Rio Grande do Sul is also expected to benefit indirectly, as new investments enhance resilience, boost productivity, and support employment generation. The IDB loan has a maturity of 25 years, including a grace period of 5.5 years, and carries an interest rate based on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). Following approval by the IDB's Board of Executive Directors, the operation is subject to the procedures established under national legislation prior to signature and implementation. This approval is part of a broader package of actions launched by the IDB to the state of Rio Grande do Sul following the 2024 floods. In the immediate aftermath, the IDB mobilized emergency resources and donations, as well as technical experts to assess the losses and damage caused by the disaster. Through this initiative, the IDB is supporting resilience and the state’s medium‑ and long‑term recovery. About Brazil Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022 Brazilian general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as the 39th president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro. In October 2024, Moody's Ratings upgraded the Government of Brazil's long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings to Ba1 from Ba2, the senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)Ba1 from (P)Ba2; and maintained the positive outlook. S&P Global Ratings raised on Dec. 19, 2023, its long-term global scale ratings on Brazil to 'BB' from 'BB-'. Fitch Ratings affirmed on Dec. 15, 2023, Brazil's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with a Stable Outlook. DBRS' credit rating for Brazil was last reported at BB with stable outlook at July 2023. CAIXA ECONOMICA: Moody's Affirms Ba1 Deposit Rating, Outlook Stable ------------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Ratings has affirmed Caixa Economica Federal's (Caixa) long- and short-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings at Ba1 and Not Prime, respectively, following the affirmation of the bank's Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) and Adjusted BCA at ba2. Moody's also affirmed the bank's foreign currency senior unsecured debt and MTN program ratings at Ba1 and (P)Ba1, respectively, the long- and short-term local and foreign currency Counterparty Risk Ratings at Ba1 and Not Prime, respectively, and long- and short-term Counterparty Risk Assessments (CRA) at Ba1(cr) and Not Prime(cr), respectively. The outlook on the long-term bank deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings remains stable. RATINGS RATIONALE The affirmation of Caixa's BCA of ba2 reflects the bank's leading franchise as the largest mortgage lender in the country in line with its role as the government's agent for social housing financing. Caixa also has the largest market share in savings deposits, which are primarily used for originating the bank's market-rate mortgages. The ba2 standalone BCA also incorporates Caixa's strong capital position and large holdings of liquid assets. These strengths are moderated by profitability metrics that are inherently low compared to other large retail banks in the country and asset quality ratios that weakened in 2025 due to rising delinquencies in loans within the agribusiness and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) segments. In December 2025, Caixa's 90-day nonperforming loans (NPLs) accounted for 3.07% of total loans, compared to a ratio of 1.97% in the previous year. Asset quality in the bank's portfolio of secured low-risk mortgages remained virtually stable at 1.2% at year-end 2025, supported by a 13% growth in mortgages in the 12 months ended in December; this segment accounted for 68% of Caixa's total loans. Conversely, problem loans in the agribusiness portfolio reached 14.1% of total loans at the end of 2025 and 12.1% in in the commercial corporate loan book, largely comprised of SMEs. The rise in problem loans was affected mostly by high interest rates that have weakened borrowers' loan repayment capacity. Caixa's stage 3 loans under IFRS relative to gross loans also increased to 6.5% in December 2025, from 5.3% in March 2025. The bank maintained loan loss reserves at 52.4% of stage 3 loans and 4.6% of gross loans, that provides a cushion to absorb additional credit losses. Caixa's profitability metrics are low relative to its peers due to the high volume of lower-yield loans to individuals, mostly mortgages and payroll loans that together accounted for 47% of total assets in 2025, compared to other large banks in Brazil. Net income to tangible assets ratio was 0.7% for 2025, flat from one year prior. Over the course of last year, however, the bank's quarterly results declined gradually due to rising loan-loss provision expenses and higher administrative costs, which also reflects its extensive branch network and increased investments in technology. The negative pressure on performance was partially mitigated by efforts to strengthen fee income through more active participation in capital markets and increased lending to the infrastructure segment. Moody's expects Caixa to show limited improvement in profitability during 2026, with provision expenses likely to remain high. In December 2025, Moody's ratio of tangible common equity to risk-weighted assets for Caixa was 12.7%, while its regulatory common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio stood at 14.3%, providing an adequate cushion above the minimum requirement of 8.0%. The maintenance of a 25% dividend payout ratio and the reinvestment of earnings have supported Caixa's capitalization in recent years and allowed the bank to maintain loan growth above 10% in the past five years. Steady access to funding is a key positive driver for Caixa's ba2 BCA. In December 2025, the bank had a ratio of less stable funding to tangible assets of 14.2%, benefiting from holding 38.8% of the system's savings deposits, as well as consistent access to demand and judicial deposits and deposit-like residential mortgage-backed securities. Although access to stable funds has remained consistent in the past five years, there has been a gradual increase of deposit-like instruments in Caixa's funding mix, at about 14% of total funds, at the same time as deposits dropped to about 43%, from 53% in 2020. Caixa's core banking liquidity accounted for 22.2% of tangible assets at the same date, mostly comprised of Brazilian government securities. The Ba1 long-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings, as well as its foreign currency senior unsecured debt rating, incorporate Moody's assessments of the highest degree of support from the Government of Brazil (Brazil, Ba1 stable), its main shareholder, and the bank's systemic importance. This support results in a one-notch uplift from the bank's BCA of ba2. The outlook on Caixa's deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings is stable, driven by the stable outlook on Brazil's Ba1 sovereign bond rating. The stable outlook also incorporates Moody's expectations that despite an increase in problem loans, loss absorption in the form of loan loss reserves and capital will continue to limit asset risks. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS Caixa's BCA could be upgraded if the bank improves its profitability significantly in the next 12 to 18 months, while still maintaining good metrics for asset quality and capitalization. Caixa's long-term deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings incorporate Moody's assumptions of the highest degree of government support because the bank is wholly-owned by the federal government. They could face positive pressure as a result of an upgrade of Brazil's sovereign ratings. Downward pressure on Caixa's BCA could arise if the bank's financial performance deteriorates significantly as a result of an increase in loan losses and aggressive loan growth, which could drain its capital position. Downward pressure on Caixa's deposit ratings could derive from a downgrade of Brazil's sovereign ratings. PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published in November 2025. RELIZ TECHNOLOGY: Retains Ordinary Course Professionals ------------------------------------------------------- Reliz Technology Group and its affiliates seek approval from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware to employ and compensate certain professionals used in the ordinary course of business. The Ordinary Course Professionals are: Kathy Cowan & Juan Pablo Urrutia Harney's Fiduciary - Legal Services 3rd Floor, Harbour Place 103 South Church Street P.O. Box 11088 Grand Cayman, KY-11008 Cayman Islands - and - Richie Randolph RSM US LLP - Accounting Services 30 South Wacker Drive, 3300 Chicago, IL 60606 The professionals will be compensated in accordance with their standard billing rates, subject to an average monthly cap of $50,000 per professional over a rolling three-month period. Any fees exceeding this cap require Court approval. The professionals are considered "disinterested persons" insofar as they do not hold or represent any interest adverse to the Debtors or their estates in connection with these matters. About Reliz Technology Group Reliz Technology Group Holdings Inc. together with affiliates Reliz Ltd., Reliz Technologies LLC, and Reliz CI Ltd., operates the BlockFills digital-asset trading and liquidity platform, offering institutional clients spot and derivatives trading, collateralized lending, and mining solutions. Founded in 2017, the group aggregates liquidity from a global network of exchanges and market makers, integrating smart order routing, trade reconciliation, and risk management through a multi-asset technology platform with FIX API connectivity and white-label software. Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, it also maintains offices in London, Dubai, Sao Paulo, and the Cayman Islands. Reliz and three affiliates sought protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code (Bankr. D. Del. Lead Case No. 26-10371) on March 15, 2026. In the petition signed by Joseph Perry, interim chief executive officer, Reliz disclosed assets of between $50 million and $100 million and liabilities of between $100 million and $500 million. Judge Thomas M Horan oversees the cases. The Debtors tapped McDermott Will & Schulte, LLP as bankruptcy counsel; Katten Muchin Rosenman, LLP as bankruptcy-co-counsel; Berkeley Research Group, LLC as financial advisor; and Verita Global, LLC as claims agent. ============= E C U A D O R ============= BOLIVARIANO DPR: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Rating on Series 2024-1 Notes ------------------------------------------------------------------ Fitch Ratings has affirmed the ratings assigned to the series 2024-1 notes issued by Bolivariano DPR Limited at 'BB-'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. Entity/Debt Rating Prior ----------- ------ ----- Bolivariano DPR Limited 2024-1 097955AA6 LT BB- Affirmed BB- Transaction Summary The future flow program is backed by existing and future flow U.S. dollar-denominated diversified payment rights (DPRs) originated by Banco Bolivariano C.A. (Bolivariano). The majority of DPRs are processed by designated depository banks (DDBs), which have executed account agreements (AAs), irrevocably obligating them to make payments to an account controlled by the program agent. Fitch's ratings address the timely payment of interest and principal on a quarterly basis. KEY RATING DRIVERS Future Flow (FF) Rating Driven by Originator's Credit Quality: The rating of this FF transaction is tied to the credit quality of the originator, Bolivariano. On March 6, 2026, Fitch upgraded Bolivariano's Viability Rating (VR) to 'b-' from 'ccc+' and Long-Term (LT) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'B-' from 'CCC+', and assigned it a Stable Rating Outlook following a similar action on Ecuador's IDR. Bolivariano's IDR is driven by its intrinsic credit profile as reflected in its VR. The ratings continue to be capped by the Ecuadoran banks' OE score of 'b-', which is aligned with the sovereign rating and is expected to continue influencing the local banks' performance. GCA Supports Notching Differential: Fitch uses a going concern assessment (GCA) score to gauge the likelihood that the originator of an FF transaction will stay in operation throughout the transaction's life. Fitch assigned a GCA score of 'GC2' to Bolivariano based on the bank's systemic importance within a highly concentrated market. The assigned score allows for a maximum uplift of four notches above the IDR of the originator. Notching Uplift From IDR: The notching uplift is supported by the transaction's strong projected coverage levels, FF debt relative to the bank's funding ratios well below the thresholds outlined in Fitch's "Future Flow Securitization Rating Criteria". The 'GC2' allows for a maximum four-notch rating uplift from the bank's LT IDR pursuant to Fitch's FF methodology. However, as Fitch reserves the maximum notching uplift for originators rated at the lowest end of the rating scale, the notching uplift for the transaction's rating is tempered to three notches. Moderate Future Flow Debt: Fitch estimates Bolivariano's FF debt represents approximately 1.9% of its total funding and 11.4% of non-deposit funding when considering the DPR program's current outstanding balance and utilizing nonconsolidated financials as of December 2025. Fitch considers the ratio of FF debt to the bank's overall liabilities small enough to not constrain the notching uplift for the FF transaction rating. Coverage Levels Commensurate with Rating: Fitch views the transaction's debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) as more than sufficient for the assigned rating. The minimum projected DSCR is approximately 274.3x when considering the maximum periodic debt service over the life of the program and DDB flows over the past five years, while excluding what could be considered nonrecurring DPR flows. Sovereign/Diversion Risks Reduced: The structure mitigates certain sovereign risks by collecting cash flows offshore until the collection of periodic debt service amounts. Fitch believes diversion risk is partially mitigated by the AAs that have been executed by the DDBs. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade - The transaction rating is sensitive to changes in Bolivariano's credit quality, which in turn is sensitive to changes in its operating environment. A deterioration of the Bolivariano's LT IDR by more than one notch would trigger a downgrade of the transaction rating; - The minimum expected quarterly DSCR when considering DDB flows for the past five years is approximately 274.3x; therefore, it should be able to withstand a significant decline in cash flows absent other issues. However, significant declines in flows could lead to a negative rating action. A rating committee will analyze any change to these variables to assess the potential impact on the transaction rating; - The transaction rating is sensitive to the DPR business line's performance and its ability to continue operating, as reflected by the GCA score. Changes in Fitch's view of the bank's GCA score can lead to a change in the transaction's rating. - No company is immune from the economic and political conditions of its home country. Political risks and the potential for sovereign interference may increase as a sovereign's rating is downgraded. However, the underlying structure and transaction enhancements mitigate these risks to a level consistent with the assigned rating. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade - The main constraint to the transaction rating is the originator's rating and Bolivariano's OE. If the bank's LT IDR is upgraded by one notch, Fitch would consider an upgrade to the rating of the transaction. USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10 Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action. PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS The FF ratings are driven by the credit risk of Banco Bolivariano C.A. as measured by its Long-Term IDR. ESG Considerations The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. =========== M E X I C O =========== MEXICO: IDB OKs $8MM Grant for Small Rural Producers ---------------------------------------------------- Small farmers in nine Mexican states will receive new support to improve their resilience against extreme weather with an $8 million investment grant from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). The grant, approved by the IDB's Board of Executive Directors, will expand financing for nature-based agricultural investments that protect soils, water, and ecosystems and enhance resilience at the farm level, helping safeguard rural livelihoods and food security. The IDB grant will support partial credit guarantees through Mexico's Agricultural Trust Funds (FIRA), a public financing mechanism created by the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit and managed by the Central Bank of Mexico. These guarantees will work by sharing financial risks among participating financial institutions, making it easier for them to finance projects that might otherwise be seen as too risky. The project is expected to mobilize an estimated $30 million in guaranteed loans, benefiting approximately 3,000 small farmers in vulnerable regions with high poverty rates. By mitigating portfolio risk for financial intermediaries, the project is expected to incentivize sustained participation of the rural financial system in adaptation lending, leading to improved access, longer loan maturities, and better terms for smallholders. The IDB grant is financed by donor funds from Germany’s Federal Ministry for Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMUKN) under their International Climate Initiative (IKI). =============== X X X X X X X X =============== LATIN AMERICA: Chile Hardest Hit by Rising Fuel Prices ------------------------------------------------------ Reuters reports that import‑dependent Chile has been among the hardest hit by fallout from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Fuel prices there are set to jump as much as 30% for gasoline and 60% for diesel after the government was forced to unwind its price‑stabilization scheme, citing strained public finances. The fuel hikes have already triggered ⁠protests, denting the popularity of Chile's freshly inaugurated President Jose Antonio Kast, the report notes. In Brazil, state-run energy firm Petrobras last week raised jet fuel prices by about 55%, relays Reuters. Central bank officials have warned that the oil shock could weigh on inflation even as Brazil's status as a net oil exporter offers some cushion. Peru has also felt the strain, with inflation spiking in March amid higher fuel prices and domestic supply disruptions, says the report. Uruguay stands out as ⁠an exception, according to a Citi analysis, due to its providing fewer direct energy subsidies and having adequate international reserves, the report relays. ********* S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman, Editors. Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746. This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of the publishers. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year, delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information, contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000. . * * * End of Transmission * * *