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260105.mbx T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R L A T I N A M E R I C A Monday, January 5, 2026, Vol. 27, No. 3 Headlines A R G E N T I N A ARGENTINA: Economy Grew Less Than Expected Before Midterms ARGENTINA: Firms Pile Into Short-term Bonds to Dodge FX Controls ARGENTINA: To Try Not to Sell Bonds This Month, Caputo Says B R A Z I L ERO COPPER: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDR to B+, Outlook Stable C A Y M A N I S L A N D S WATER WOOD: Chapter 15 Case Summary C O L O M B I A GRUPO CIBEST: Inversiones Deal No Impact on Moody's 'Ba2' Rating J A M A I C A JAMAICA: BOJ Accepts Bids Just for the J$2.5B Offered M E X I C O NUEVA ELEKTRA: Moody's Cuts CFR to B1, Under Review for Downgrade REALTRUCK GROUP: Moody's Cuts CFR to 'Caa2', Outlook Stable P E R U PETROLEOS DEL PERU: Peru Approves Emergency Overhaul of Oil Firm V E N E Z U E L A VENEZUELA: U.S. Strikes as Trump Claims Maduro and Wife Captured - - - - - ================= A R G E N T I N A ================= ARGENTINA: Economy Grew Less Than Expected Before Midterms ---------------------------------------------------------- Economic activity expanded 3.2 percent in October compared to the same month of the previous year, the INDEC national statistics bureau said, below the 4.2 percent median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Manuela Tobias at Bloomberg News reports that on the month, economic activity shrank 0.4 percent, marking the first monthly contraction since June. In late October, Argentines elected half of the lower house of Congress and a third of the Senate, recounts Bloomberg News. In the run-up to the vote, investor concern that President Javier Milei would perform poorly - given a stinging defeat in a September local election - set off a sharp bout of extreme volatility in local financial markets, Bloomberg News notes. Bloomberg News says that the peso depreciated roughly five percent that month even after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stepped in to defend the currency with a US$20-billion currency swap line, Bloomberg News discloses. Ultimately, Milei's party won by a landslide and assets rallied on his resurgence, Bloomberg News relays. On the heels of Milei's victory, Argentina's authorities announced the bands within which the currency is allowed to trade would be expanded at a quicker clip, set by the last inflation print, starting this month, Bloomberg News relays. The move is expected to help Argentina's Central Bank accumulate much-needed dollar reserves, Bloomberg News discloses. "Economic activity was tepid again in October, marking more than half a year of sluggish activity in the run-up to Argentina's October 26 midterm election. At the margin, it shows some payback in the financial services that drove September's surprisingly resilient print, along with more fundamental weakness in manufacturing and sectors reliant on domestic demand, such as retail and hotels and restaurants," said Jimena Zuniga, Argentina economist for Bloomberg Economics. Bloomberg News relays that Argentina's economy managed to stave off a recession and expanded slightly in the third quarter in the face of the market sell-off. A surge in exports drove growth during the period while consumer spending and government expenditure were mildly positive, Bloomberg News notes. Economists in the Central Bank's November survey of expectations see South America's second-largest economy expanding 4.4 percent this year, up from October's 3.9 percent forecast, with 30.4 percent inflation, Bloomberg News adds. About Argentina Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position. Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution and in the recent decades, increasing poverty. In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion, or 1000 percent of quota) -- with an approved immediate disbursement of an equivalent of US$9.65 billion. Argentina's IMF-supported program sought to improve public finances and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a multi-pronged strategy. On April 11, 2025, the IMF further approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling US$20 billion (or 479 percent of quota), with an immediate disbursement of US$12 billion, and a first review planned for June 2025 with an associated disbursement of about US$2 billion. The program is expected to help catalyze additional official multilateral and bilateral support, and a timely re-access to international capital markets. S&P Global Ratings on Dec. 17, 2025, raised its local currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC+/C' from 'SD/SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'CCC' and affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. In addition, S&P raised its issue ratings on local currency bonds to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. S&P's 'B-' transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged. Moody's Ratings on July 17, 2025, upgraded Argentina's long-term foreign currency and local currency issuer ratings to Caa1 from Caa3 and changed the outlook to stable from positive. Fitch Ratings, on May 12, 2025, upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign-Currency and Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC in November 2024. ARGENTINA: Firms Pile Into Short-term Bonds to Dodge FX Controls ---------------------------------------------------------------- Ignacio Olivera Doll at Bloomberg News reports that Argentine businesses and investors are paying a premium to stock up on dollars in a creative effort to sidestep President Javier Milei's currency controls. Although individuals face fewer restrictions, companies still confront barriers around buying and selling greenbacks as Milei tries to prevent major swings in the peso, according to Bloomberg News. To get around the controls, firms are buying short-term corporate, provincial and sovereign bonds using pesos to receive coupon and principal payments in dollars, Bloomberg News notes. Bloomberg News relays that the surge in demand has reduced yields so much that some of Argentina's locally issued corporate and provincial dollar bonds come with lower borrowing costs than benchmark US Treasury bonds. In some cases, yields are negative, indicating that the primary goal isn't to hold the assets to maturity but access dollars, Bloomberg News notes. Bloomberg News discloses that behind the distortion is a policy framework that continues to stifle access to dollars. Argentina's Central Bank, ahead of the midterm elections in October, imposed a so-called cross restriction that limits companies' ability to switch between the official foreign-exchange market and the two main securities-based routes to acquire dollars, recalls Bloomberg News. Before the new rule took effect, investors and companies routinely bought securities in pesos and sold them for dollars. This allowed them to legally convert pesos into dollars at an implied exchange rate weaker than the official one. The cross restriction matters to firms that need the official exchange market to pay import invoices or service external debt, Bloomberg News relays. Under the rule, a company that exchanges dollars using the securities route risks losing access to that market for 90 days, it adds. Buying short-duration US dollar bonds offers a workaround by providing access to dollars while keeping the official window open, Bloomberg News discloses. That has turned yields on certain instruments negative, with Pan American Energy LLC's note due March 2 returning minus 4.5 percent and Grupo Financiero Galicia SA's December 30 paper at around minus two percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Pampa Energía SA's March 26 bond is nearing a 1.7 percent return, while notes issued by Córdoba Province due in October come with a negative yield of 2.5 percent, the data show, Bloomberg News relays. Issuers including Pampa and Genneia SA last month bought back debt after yields on some of their short-dated debt fell even further, Bloomberg News discloses. "This is linked to the restrictions," said Diego Mendez, team leader for corporate credit at local brokerage PPI. "Investors buy short bonds and when the dollars are paid, they keep them on their books. They pay an extra premium because what they want is the dollars," he added. Demand is strongest in cases in which companies seek dollars to hedge their currency exposure, Bloomberg News notes. "There's pressure at the very front end because hedging is done with actual dollars," Mendez said, Bloomberg News relays. Further out the Argentine Treasury curve, yields remain firmly positive, suggesting that the recent trend doesn't mark a broad re-rating of Argentine credit risk, relates Bloomberg News. Longer-dated bonds, such as Grupo Galicia's notes maturing in July, currently yield about 5.5 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Argentina's long-term sovereign bonds issued abroad, such as notes maturing in 2035, yield over 9.8 percent, which more accurately reflects global investors’ risk assessment, Bloomberg News notes. A similar premium is showing in the CCL rate, a free-floating exchange rate for investors which recently recently traded above the Central Vank's FX band, Bloomberg News relays. The band, launched with a range of 1,000 to 1,400 pesos and monthly adjustments, is set to expand faster from its current one percent monthly pace in January, when the Central Bank plans to index it to monthly inflation, now at 2.5 percent, Bloomberg News relays. The recent changes on the front-end also come with a benefit for issuers, Bloomberg News says. Pampa, Genneia and others have been able to repurchase outstanding debt below the issue price, with the same premium that's hurting buyers turning into a discount for issuers looking to retire liabilities early, Bloomberg News notes. "For local investors, going into a US Treasury or an Apple bond often makes no sense – once you add taxes on foreign assets, FX controls and broker fees, the net return can turn negative, so all that cash ends up chasing short-dated Argentine corporate and provincial bonds instead," said Juan Manuel Pazos, chief of strategy at local brokerage One618, Bloomberg News relays. "Having these bonds yield negative returns or below a US Treasury isn't so irrational when the alternative is leaving dollars at zero percent in a savings account — any positive yield on a local bond looks better than that," Pazos added. About Argentina Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position. Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution and in the recent decades, increasing poverty. In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion, or 1000 percent of quota) -- with an approved immediate disbursement of an equivalent of US$9.65 billion. Argentina's IMF-supported program sought to improve public finances and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a multi-pronged strategy. On April 11, 2025, the IMF further approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling US$20 billion (or 479 percent of quota), with an immediate disbursement of US$12 billion, and a first review planned for June 2025 with an associated disbursement of about US$2 billion. The program is expected to help catalyze additional official multilateral and bilateral support, and a timely re-access to international capital markets. S&P Global Ratings on Dec. 17, 2025, raised its local currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC+/C' from 'SD/SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'CCC' and affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. In addition, S&P raised its issue ratings on local currency bonds to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. S&P's 'B-' transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged. Moody's Ratings on July 17, 2025, upgraded Argentina's long-term foreign currency and local currency issuer ratings to Caa1 from Caa3 and changed the outlook to stable from positive. Fitch Ratings, on May 12, 2025, upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign-Currency and Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC in November 2024. ARGENTINA: To Try Not to Sell Bonds This Month, Caputo Says ----------------------------------------------------------- David Feliba & Manuela Tobias at Bloomberg News report that Argentina wants to avoid selling bonds under New York law this month, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said on X, as anticipation for the country's comeback to international debt markets continues to mount. Caputo, who was responding to a question on the social media website about whether Argentina would issue bonds this month, added that the government wants Wall Street to be a "marginal source of financing," according to Bloomberg News "The objective is to eliminate the dependence the country has on Wall Street," Caputo wrote, Bloomberg News relays. Caputo and President Javier Milei have repeatedly emphasized the country will make its January 9 bond payments, Bloomberg News discloses. The country owes its bondholders US$4.5 billion then, and has a similar amount due in July, Bloomberg News discloses. Besides selling bonds to refinance payments, Caputo has previously touted a menu of options available to the government, including a repo line with banks and a US$20-billion swap line from the US Treasury, Bloomberg News relays. Investors have been readying for Argentina to return to global debt markets as yields fall to around to 10 percent, near the levels that Caputo has signalled he'd be willing to sell bonds at, Bloomberg News relays. Earlier this month, the minister said Argentina was "the closest we've ever been to having access to markets," Bloomberg News notes. The last time the nation had sold hard-currency debt - excluding the 2020 restructuring - was under former president Mauricio Macri, who tapped Caputo as his finance secretary at the time. In May, the country's Treasury placed a five-year, peso-denominated bond open to international investors subscribing in US dollars, Bloomberg News discloses. Then last month, it sold US$1 billion in local-law bonds, which was seen as another step to regaining access to global debt markets, Bloomberg News notes. But Caputo has also insisted on the need for the country to develop its domestic capital market, Bloomberg News relays. That, he says, would allow companies and provinces to finance themselves locally rather than resorting to international investors. "No country has the dependence on Wall Street that Argentina has," Caputo said in an interview on a YouTube channel, Bloomberg News relays. "Argentina never developed a capital market." The minister's comments follow a wave of Argentine corporate and provincial issuances after the midterm election in October 26, which saw sovereign risk drop sharply and opened the door for the country's largest companies to tap international markets once again, Bloomberg News adds. About Argentina Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position. Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution and in the recent decades, increasing poverty. In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion, or 1000 percent of quota) -- with an approved immediate disbursement of an equivalent of US$9.65 billion. Argentina's IMF-supported program sought to improve public finances and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a multi-pronged strategy. On April 11, 2025, the IMF further approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling US$20 billion (or 479 percent of quota), with an immediate disbursement of US$12 billion, and a first review planned for June 2025 with an associated disbursement of about US$2 billion. The program is expected to help catalyze additional official multilateral and bilateral support, and a timely re-access to international capital markets. S&P Global Ratings on Dec. 17, 2025, raised its local currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC+/C' from 'SD/SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'CCC' and affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. In addition, S&P raised its issue ratings on local currency bonds to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. S&P's 'B-' transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged. Moody's Ratings on July 17, 2025, upgraded Argentina's long-term foreign currency and local currency issuer ratings to Caa1 from Caa3 and changed the outlook to stable from positive. Fitch Ratings, on May 12, 2025, upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign-Currency and Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC in November 2024. =========== B R A Z I L =========== ERO COPPER: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDR to B+, Outlook Stable ---------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has upgraded Ero Copper Corp.'s (Ero) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'B+' from 'B'. Fitch has also upgraded Ero's senior unsecured notes to 'B+' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4' from 'B'/'RR4'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. The upgrade follows advanced ramp-up of the Tucuma copper operation and the resulting increased size, higher profitability and swing into positive FCF. Ero's credit profile is limited by its product and geographic concentration amid growing EBITDA and scale with a degree of execution risk. The Stable Outlook reflects Ero's average cost profile, increased mine diversification, sound mine lives, and improved capital structure. Fitch expects Ero to conservatively manage its capital allocation strategy amid increasing operating cash flow generation. Fitch also expects Ero's credit metrics to remain relatively low for its rating category over the rating horizon, with total and net EBITDA leverage below 1.2x and 1.0x during 2025-27. Key Rating Drivers Advancing Copper Ramp Up: Commercial production was achieved at Ero's new low-cost copper mine Tucuma in 3Q25. Quarterly output grew nearly 20% thanks to improved initiatives in the tailings filtration circuit and high-grade blocks mine sequencing. Fitch expects Tucuma to contribute 40% of revenue in 2026 while the copper mine site Caraiba will account with 33%, reflecting lower planned grades. The Xavantina gold mine is expected to provide 13% of revenue and the new processing of stockpiled gold concentrates will contribute a similar 14%. Improving Gold Operational Flexibility: Ero is swiftly reacting to tap high gold prices by almost doubling contribution from its smallest mining unit in a new development. Xavantina began processing stockpiled high-grade gold concentrates in 4Q24 to unlock value from material accumulated since 2012. Ramp-up will continue through year-end and 4Q25 project sales will reach 15,000 oz. Management expects sales are over the next 12-18 months, according to inferred resources where ongoing sampling continues into 2026 with potential annual output of 50,000 oz. Continued Exploration Efforts: Ero has stabilized and extended mine life. Reserves-to-production ratios remain stable at Caraiba (17 years), Tucuma (12 years), and Xavantina (11 years). The Furnas project in Para, Brazil, completed the second of three drill programs for a scoping study to help Ero's bid to secure 60% ownership from Vale Base Metals Ltd. Copper Sensitivity: Fitch estimates a USD500/metric ton (MT) increase in 2026 in copper prices from the current USD9,500/MT would lift EBITDA by USD37 million. Ero's average realized copper price was USD3.91/pound (lb; USD8,620/MT) in 2024, compared to USD3.64/lb (USD8,025/MT) in 2023. Spot prices are about USD11,737/MT (USD5.32/lb), compared with Fitch's assumptions of USD9,500/MT (USD4.31/lb) in 2026, USD8,500/MT (USD3.86/lb) in 2026, and USD8,000/MT (USD3.63/lb) in 2028 and thereafter. Turning into Positive FCF: Fitch projects Ero will generate around USD550 million of EBITDA in 2026 from more than USD360 million in 2025, spurred by increased copper and gold production. Capex is forecast to increase to USD310 million in 2026 due to the new external shaft at Caraiba, higher throughput and filtering investments in Tucuma and mechanization expenses at Xavantina. Opportunistic share buybacks are assumed in 2027. Fitch expects FCF to turn positive by 2026. Lower Leverage: Ero is anticipated to maintain a manageable leverage profile during the production ramp-up of Tucuma. Total and net EBITDA leverage ratios are expected to decrease to 0.8x and 0.7x in 2026, from 1.7x and 1.5x in 2025, as EBITDA increases from Tucuma and the gold concentrates production. Total debt will average below USD520 million as Ero intends to payback drawdowns from its credit facility, available up to USD200 million (USD45 million available) and the use of its USD75 million copper prepayment facility (USD46 million to be repaid). Peer Analysis Ero's production scale and diversification, with copper and gold spread across multiple sites, is larger and less concentrated than Taseko Mines Ltd. (B-/Positive) and comparable to Aris Mining Corp. (B+/Stable), but smaller than Eldorado Gold Corp. (B+/Stable), Hudbay Minerals Inc. (BB-/Stable), and IAMGOLD Corp. (B+/Stable). Copper comprises over 80% of Ero's revenue. Peers like Taseko and Hudbay have concentrated revenue in copper, while Aris, Eldorado, and IAMGOLD focus on gold. Hudbay also diversifies into gold, zinc, molybdenum, and silver. Ero's mine life average of 14 years, which is comparable to Aris and shorter than Taseko's 22 years but longer than IAMGOLD's five years. Ero's cost position in the third to fourth quartile is worse than Hudbay's first and Eldorado's second but better than Taseko's and IAMGOLD's fourth. Ero's expected average Total EBITDA leverage for 2025-2026 should be around 1.3x, which is similar to IAMGOLD's 1.3x, and lower than Taseko's 2.2x, Eldorado's 2.15x, Aris' 1.5x, and Hudbay's 2.1x. Fitch's Key Rating-Case Assumptions -- Copper price at USD9,500/MT, USD8,500/MT, and USD8,000/MT in 2026, 2027, and 2028; -- Gold price at USD3,400/ounce (oz), USD2,500/oz, and USD2,000/oz in 2026, 2027, and 2028; -- Copper sold from Caraiba at 38,000 MT, 40,000 MT, and 42,000 MT in 2026, 2027, and 2028; -- Copper sold from Tucuma at 37,000 MT in 2026, 2027, and 2028; -- Gold sold from Xavantina at 50,000 oz in 2026, 2027, and 2028; -- Gold sold from Xavantina Concentrates at 50,000 oz, 20,000 oz and 5,000 oz in 2026, 2027, and 2028; -- Tucuma reaches full production in 2026; -- No dividends or share-repurchases until 2027, with USD10 million if stock price weakens; -- Capex (investing cash flow in additions to mineral PPE, exploration and evaluation assets) including exploration USD310 million, USD270 million, and USD160 million in 2026-2028. Recovery Analysis The recovery analysis assumes Ero would be reorganized as a going-concern in bankruptcy rather than liquidated. Fitch assumed a 10% administrative claim, the USD200 million revolver is fully drawn, and pending USD46 million copper prepayment facility is not repaid. Ero's going-concern EBITDA assumption is based on copper at USD8,000/MT and cash costs at USD2.75/lb for Tucuma and Caraiba in 2026, when capital spending is elevated and additional funding or a project delay of the Xavantina concentrates would be required. The going-concern EBITDA estimate reflects Fitch's view of a sustainable, post-reorganization EBITDA level upon which it bases the enterprise valuation in a low copper price environment. An enterprise valuation multiple of 5x EBITDA is applied to the going-concern EBITDA to calculate a post-reorganization enterprise value (EV). The choice of this multiple considered the following factors: the historical bankruptcy case study exit multiples for peer companies were 4.0x-6.0x, Ero's relatively small size, average cost and country risk. Fitch applies a waterfall analysis to the post-default EV based on the relative claims of the debt in the capital structure. The debt waterfall assumptions consider the company's total debt. These assumptions result in a recovery rate for the unsecured debt within the 'RR1' range, but due to the soft cap of Brazil at 'RR4', Ero Copper's senior secured debt is rated at 'B+'/'RR4'. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade -- Increased costs or material disruption at Caraiba or Tucuma; -- Total debt/EBITDA after minority distributions anticipated to be sustained above 3.5x; -- Large debt-funded acquisitions; -- Negative FCF on a sustained basis and debt funding; -- Material deterioration in liquidity and difficulties to access funding. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade -- Increasing size and diversification over the medium term; -- Financial policies in place resulting in consolidated total debt/EBITDA after minority distributions anticipated to be sustained below 2.5x Liquidity and Debt Structure As of Sept. 30, 2025, Ero held approximately USD66 million of cash and cash equivalents and USD612 million of total debt and USD50 million in the short term. Ero has a RCF of USD200 million due December 2028, with USD45 million currently undrawn. In addition, Ero counts with a fully drawn USD75 million a copper prepayment facility with a bank syndicate, the remaining principal to be repaid was USD45.6 million. This remaining principal amount is being repaid in monthly instalments through YE 2026. Ero's senior unsecured USD400 million bond is due in 2030. Fitch expects Ero's cash generation to be underpinned by the contribution from the Tucuma mine. Depending on copper prices, Fitch expects the company to make credit facility repayments in the short to medium term. Issuer Profile Ero Copper Corp., based in Vancouver, holds 99.6% of Caraíba copper operations (Bahia) and 97.6% of the Xavantina gold mine (Mato Grosso), and owns the Tucuma IOCG-type copper development project in Para, Brazil. =========================== C A Y M A N I S L A N D S =========================== WATER WOOD: Chapter 15 Case Summary ----------------------------------- Lead Debtor: Water Wood Capital Management Limited (In Official Liquidiation) 18 Forum Lane, Camana Bay 258 Grand Cayman KY1-1104 Cayman Islands Business Description: Water Wood Capital Management Limited, formerly Amber Hill Capital Management Limited, is an exempted limited company incorporated in the Cayman Islands that operates as an investment manager for a group of segregated portfolio companies. The Company manages Mozi Fund SPC, Amber Hill GO Fund SPC, Mount Peak Fund SPC, Oasis FX Opp SPC, Water Wood Fund SPC, and Water Wood I Fund SPC, all organized under Cayman Islands law. Foreign Proceeding: In the Matter of Water Wood Capital Management Limited (In Voluntary Liquidation), Cause No. FSD 380 of 2024 (Grand Court of the Cayman Islands, Financial Services Division). Chapter 15 Petition Date: December 23, 2025 Court: United States Bankruptcy Court Southern District of New York Four affiliates that concurrently filed voluntary petitions for relief under Chapter 15 of the Bankruptcy Code: Debtor Case No. ------ -------- Water Wood Capital Management Limited (Lead Case) 25-12876 Mozi Fund SPC (In Official Liquidation) 25-12877 Amber Hill GO Fund SPC (In Official Liquidation) 25-12878 Mount Peak Fund SPC (In Official Liquidation) 25-12879 Judge: Hon. Michael E Wiles Foreign Representatives: Simon Conway; Yat Kit Jong; Man Chun So 18 Forum Lane, Camana Bay 258 Grand Cayman KY1-1104 Cayman Islands Foreign Representatives' Counsel: Scott M. Berman, Esq. FRIEDMAN KAPLAN SEILER ADELMAN & ROBBINS LLP 7 Times Square New York NY 10036 Tel: (212) 833-1100 Email: sberman@fklaw.com Estimated Assets: Unknown Estimated Debt: Unknown A full-text copy of Water Wood Capital's Chapter 15 petition is available for free on PacerMonitor at: https://www.pacermonitor.com/view/V6DPPAA/Water_Wood_Capital_Management__nysbke-25-12876__0001.0.pdf?mcid=tGE4TAMA =============== C O L O M B I A =============== GRUPO CIBEST: Inversiones Deal No Impact on Moody's 'Ba2' Rating ---------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Ratings said that GRUPO CIBEST S.A.'s (Cibest, Ba2 Stable) recent agreement to sell its Panamanian subsidiary, Banistmo, S.A. (Banistmo, ba1, Ba1/Negative), to Inversiones Cuscatlan Centroamerica S.A. will not have an immediate effect on its ratings or outlook. The transaction is deemed credit neutral for now, though the ultimate impact on Cibest's credit profile will hinge on how the group utilizes the freed capital. Even with this uncertainty, Moody's expects Cibest's credit profile to continue to be driven by the credit profile of its main subsidiary, Bancolombia S.A. (ba1, Baa3/Stable), and any variation in double leverage of Cibest will likely remain commensurate with its current rating. As a holding company, Cibest's Ba2 issuer rating is anchored on its main operating entity Bancolombia's ba1 baseline credit assessment (BCA), while being one notch lower due to the structural subordination of Cibest's obligations to those of its subsidiaries. Post-transaction, Bancolombia is expected to remain the principal contributor to the group's dividends. Since its acquisition by Bancolombia in 2013, Banistmo's performance has lagged behind other Cibest subsidiaries. This, combined with its size within Cibest's operations, leads to the expectation that the transaction will not affect the ratings. While Banistmo contributes nearly 11% to Cibest's consolidated assets and gross loans, its underperformance in Panama has limited its contribution to just 4% of the bank's consolidated net income between 2020 and 2024. As a result, Cibest is not dependent on Banistmo's dividends for cash flows or debt payments. If the group reallocates the liquidity from the sale to more lucrative operations in Colombia or other countries where it operates, there could be potential for enhanced earnings generation in the medium term. As of September 2025, Banistmo's book value stood at $1.2 billion, with the sale price set at $1.4 billion, close to 1.2 times book value. However, the impact on Cibest's capital will be influenced by the write-down of goodwill originally recorded when Bancolombia acquired Banistmo in 2013. The group's total goodwill amounted to close to $2.3 billion as of September 2025, with the largest portion attributed to its Panamanian operations. Therefore, the acquisition is anticipated to negatively affect Cibest's equity. Nonetheless, the impact on Cibest's double leverage ratio, currently around 105%, is not expected to be significant. It may initially improve post-transaction and could rise again depending on how the capital is deployed or if extraordinary dividends are distributed. ============= J A M A I C A ============= JAMAICA: BOJ Accepts Bids Just for the J$2.5B Offered ----------------------------------------------------- RJR News reports that the Bank of Jamaica received four bids, totalling $2.75 billion for the $2.5 billion in liquidity support it offered to deposit-taking institutions, after some entities experienced cash shortfalls. The central bank accepted bids in line with the amount it intended to provide, according to RJR News. Eligible institutions included commercial banks, merchant banks, and building societies, the report relays. The average interest rate on the accepted bids was 6.18 per cent per annum, the report adds. About Jamaica Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial and insurance services. In December 2025, Moody's Ratings upgraded the Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Ba3 from B1, and the senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)Ba3 from (P)B1. The outlook has been changed to stable from positive. Also in December 2025, S&P revised its outlook on Jamaica to stable from positive. At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'BB' long-term and 'B' short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica. S&P's transfer and convertibility assessment remains 'BB+'. Fitch Ratings in November 2025, affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' and revised its Outlook to Stable from Positive. =========== M E X I C O =========== NUEVA ELEKTRA: Moody's Cuts CFR to B1, Under Review for Downgrade ----------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Ratings has downgraded the Corporate Family Rating of Nueva Elektra del Milenio, SA de CV. (NEM) to B1 from Ba3 and maintained the review for downgrade. The outlook also remains under review. RATINGS RATIONALE The downgrade to B1 reflects the deterioration of NEM's credit metrics, increased leverage, free cash flow, now negative due to extraordinary dividend payments during 2025, all of which have deviated from Moody's expectations. A significant recovery in the near term is not anticipated, and the company is unlikely to return to credit metrics consistent with a Ba category rating, such as Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA below 4.0x, Moody's-adjusted (EBITDA – Capex)/interest expense above 2.5x, and positive free cash flow generation. These metrics, together with a robust liquidity profile, are considered necessary to mitigate the potential impact of the group-level tax liability, which remains uncertain at this time. The review for downgrade will focus on the company's ability to improve its operating performance and credit metrics. The review will also assess the impact of the group-level tax liability on NEM's liquidity profile and credit metrics, as this situation remains unresolved. NEM and Grupo Elektra are currently involved in several legal proceedings related to historical tax assessments that will result in tax liabilities for the company. While management has secured these contingencies through administrative guarantees and maintains that there are reasonable grounds for a favorable outcome, the timing and magnitude of any required payments remain unpredictable. If the company is required by the Mexican tax authorities to settle these tax obligations in the near term, it could result in substantial cash outflows, placing additional strain on the liquidity buffer, further limiting financial flexibility. NEM's liquidity remains adequate, supported by a cash and marketable securities balance of approximately MXN10.9 billion ($594 million) as of September 2025. The company also holds an additional MXN1.9 billion ($105.7 million) in securities investments. However, the absence of cash flow separation between NEM and its parent increases the risk that liquidity could be used to meet parent-level obligations, further pressuring NEM's financial flexibility. Any adverse legal outcome could quickly erode liquidity. The rating under review also reflects the significant relationship between NEM and Grupo Elektra, which is critical due to NEM's strategic relevance to the group's commercial operations. Additionally, the rating considers Grupo Elektra's leading market position in the Mexican retail sector and its successful strategy of targeting mid- to low-income population segments through credit sales offered by its financial services subsidiary, Banco Azteca, S.A. (baseline credit assessment: ba3), which supports the company's leading market position. ESG CONSIDERATIONS Governance risks remain a key credit consideration for NEM. These risks are primarily linked to the company's holding structure under Grupo Elektra, which in the process of becoming private and continues to exhibit concentrated family ownership and decision-making. The absence of a formal dividend policy persists at NEM's level, although management has indicated that the significant dividend payments made in early 2025 were a one-time event, and that no further distributions are planned after the third quarter of 2025. Additionally, the company's governance profile is affected by the absence of structural safeguards between NEM and its parent. While Moody's recognizes the company's view that liquidity is managed at the group level to optimize financial, accounting, and tax efficiency, Moody's believes this approach implies that liquidity at the subsidiary level may be less robust than reported. The absence of structural safeguards between NEM and its parent means that cash flows—whether upstream or downstream—are subject to group-level priorities, which could constrain the subsidiary's financial flexibility under stress scenarios. The board's effectiveness is potentially undermined by highly centralized ownership. These factors are reflected in the Governance IPS of G-5, signaling that governance risks are a defining constraint on the company's credit profile. Despite these challenges, NEM has demonstrated adequate liquidity management and a manageable maturity profile, even during periods of economic stress. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING As the rating remains under review for downgrade, an upgrade is unlikely in the near term. Any upgrade would require a significant recovery in credit metrics, improved profitability, reduced leverage, sustained positive free cash flow generation, a definitive resolution of the tax liabilities, and the maintenance of adequate liquidity. Quantitatively, an upgrade would require Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA to remain below 3.5x, RCF (Retained Cash Flow)/Net Debt above 10%, Moody's-adjusted (EBITDA – Capex)/interest expense above 1.25x on a sustained basis, and sustained positive free cash flow generation. NEM's ratings could be downgraded if the company is not able to revert the negative operating trend and negative cash generation continues. A multiple notch downgrade remains possible as the tax situation continues to evolve, with potential for a significant deterioration in NEM's liquidity and credit metrics, particularly in the absence of cash flow restrictions. Quantitatively, negative pressure on the rating could arise if Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA remains above 4.0x, RCF (Retained Cash Flow)/Net Debt falls below 10%, and Moody's-adjusted (EBITDA – Capex)/interest expense remains below 1.25x on a sustained basis Nueva Elektra del Milenio, SA de CV. is a leading retail services company in Latin America, operating primarily in Mexico. The company is engaged in the sale of consumer electronics, appliances, and other products through a broad network of stores under the "Elektra" and "Salinas y Rocha" brands, and is a major provider of money transfer services. NEM is a wholly owned subsidiary of Grupo Elektra and plays a key role in the group's commercial operations, benefiting from a strong brand and extensive distribution footprint. The principal methodology used in this rating was Retail and Apparel published in September 2025. The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any, was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement. REALTRUCK GROUP: Moody's Cuts CFR to 'Caa2', Outlook Stable ----------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Ratings downgraded RealTruck Group, Inc.'s (RealTruck) corporate family rating to Caa2 from B3 and the probability of default rating to Caa2-PD from B3-PD. Moody's downgraded the senior secured bank credit facility ratings to Caa1 from B2 and the senior unsecured rating to Ca from Caa2. The outlook was changed to stable from negative. The rating downgrades reflect Moody's expectations that the company will continue to operate with an unsustainable capital structure, low interest coverage, and weak liquidity attributed to ongoing negative free cash flow. The downgrades also reflects rising concerns related to the need to timely address the springing maturity of the asset-based revolving credit facility of 91 days prior to the maturity of the $2.3 billion senior secured first lien term loan in January 2028. Governance was a key consideration in this rating action. Governance factors including aggressive financial strategies and risk management practices which contributed to weak liquidity and high financial leverage. The credit impact score was revised to CIS-5 from CIS-4 to reflect these risks. The CIS-5 indicates that the rating is lower than it would have been if ESG risk exposures did not exist and that the negative impact is more pronounced than for issuers scored CIS-4. The outlook change to stable reflects Moody's expectations for revenue growth and modest margin expansion from pricing actions and efforts to contain costs and reduce manufacturing expenses. These factors are expected to lead to modest leverage reduction, although debt/EBITDA is expected to remain high. RATINGS RATIONALE RealTruck's ratings reflect the company's very high leverage, weak credit metrics and negative free cash flow. RealTruck has good product diversification and brand recognition as a specialty provider in the light vehicle aftermarket segment. The acquisition of VAI in March 2025 diversifies RealTruck's sales by vehicle brand while expanding the company's portfolio of truck accessories. Moody's expects debt/EBITDA to decline yet remain high, over 10x at the end of 2026. Moody's forecasts low single digit revenue growth in 2026 and expanded EBITDA margin versus 2025 due to efforts to contain costs and reduce manufacturing expenses. Free cash flow is expected to remain negative due to the very high interest expense burden associated with the company's debt balance and capex requirements. The large debt load and significant annual interest expense limit the company's ability to absorb operational missteps or ineffective execution. RealTruck's weak liquidity is driven by Moody's expectations for negative free cash flow, resulting in heavy reliance on the unrated $250 million asset-based lending (ABL) facility. The gross availability of the ABL is lower than the commitment. In addition, the ABL's stated maturity date is February 2030, however, the ABL has springing maturity of 91 days prior to the maturity of the senior secured first lien term loan in January 2028. The facility is subject to a springing fixed charge covenant when availability falls below a specific threshold. The term loan does not have financial maintenance covenants. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS The ratings could be downgraded if RealTruck fails to improve liquidity, including if the company is unable to generate positive free cash flow, or if the capital structure becomes untenable. A downgrade could also occur if Moody's expects the probability of a debt restructuring increases or Moody's estimates of recovery rates decreases. The ratings could be upgraded if RealTruck materially improves its liquidity and operating performance. In addition, a trajectory of meaningfully reducing debt-to-EBITDA and adequately covering interest expense could support an upgrade. The principal methodology used in these ratings was Automotive Suppliers published in November 2025. RealTruck's Caa2 CFR is two notches below the B3 scorecard indicated outcome based on the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2025. The CFR reflects Moody's expectations for very high financial leverage, weak liquidity and upcoming debt maturities. RealTruck Group, Inc. is a vertically integrated manufacturer of branded aftermarket accessories for trucks, Jeeps, sport utility vehicles, crossover utility vehicles and vans with manufacturing operations in the US, Canada, Denmark, Mexico and Thailand and sales in 100+ countries. Products include hard and soft truck bed covers, truck caps, bed liners, floor liners, steps, suspension kits, Jeep parts and off-road accessories. Revenue for the twelve months ended September 30, 2025 was approximately $1.6 billion. ======= P E R U ======= PETROLEOS DEL PERU: Peru Approves Emergency Overhaul of Oil Firm ---------------------------------------------------------------- Aljazeera.com reports that Peru's government has approved an emergency decree allowing private investment in parts of the state-owned oil company Petroperu, as authorities move to stabilise a firm weighed down by mounting losses and debt. President Jose Jeri announced the decision shortly before the beginning of the new year, according to the report. The measure permits the reorganisation of Petroperu into one or more asset units, opening the door to private participation in key operations, the report notes. That includes those at the flagship Talara refinery, which recently underwent a $6.5bn upgrades, the report says. As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Aug. 26, 2025, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Petroleos del Peru - Petroperu S.A.'s (Petroperu) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'CCC+'. Fitch has also affirmed the rating of Petroperu's senior unsecured notes at 'CCC+' and an Recovery Rating of 'RR4' has been assigned. Fitch assessed Petroperu's Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) at 'cc'. ================= V E N E Z U E L A ================= VENEZUELA: U.S. Strikes as Trump Claims Maduro and Wife Captured ---------------------------------------------------------------- Lachlan Williams at Rio Times Online reports that the United States carried out a sudden, forceful operation against Venezuela in the early hours of Jan. 3, puncturing months of simmering tension with explosions, aircraft activity, and widespread power disruptions across parts of Caracas. President Donald Trump said the action culminated in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and his wife, who he claimed were flown out of the country by U.S. forces, according to Rio Times Online. Washington promised further details at a press briefing, the report notes. Residents across the capital reported low-flying helicopters, flashes, and concussions that rattled neighborhoods before dawn, the report discloses. Fires were seen at Fuerte Tiuna, the country's largest military complex and home to the defense ministry and army command, the report says. Authorities acknowledged strikes in Miranda, Aragua, and La Guaira states alongside Caracas, while admitting the full toll in casualties and damage remained unclear, says the report. The Maduro government responded by declaring a national state of emergency and mobilizing security forces, the report notes. Rio Times Online relays that officials framed the attack as an imperial overreach and called on citizens to rally in defense of national sovereignty. Power cuts were reported in the city's south near major bases, and residents described confusion as sirens and aircraft noise echoed through the night, the report says. U.S. actions followed a steady hardening of posture through 2025, including a reinforced military presence in the Caribbean and repeated interdictions of vessels Washington says were linked to narcotics trafficking, the report discloses. The administration has argued that pressure is necessary to dismantle criminal networks it alleges operate with state protection in Venezuela, the report relays. In November, Trump warned that ground operations were possible and authorized expanded intelligence activity, a signal that diplomacy had given way to coercion, the report says. Aviation authorities swiftly closed Venezuelan airspace to U.S. carriers, citing active military operations, notes the report. Regionally, leaders urged emergency consultations at the United Nations and the Organization of American States, warning of spillover risks, the report relays. Whether Trump's claim of Maduro's capture is independently confirmed or not, the episode marks a sharp escalation, the report relays. It tests norms around sovereignty, raises the stakes for regional stability, and places Venezuela's future -- and its vast energy resources -- at the center of a rapidly shifting geopolitical contest, the report adds. About Venezuela Venezuela, officially the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, is a country on the northern coast of South America, consisting of a continental landmass and a large number of small islands and islets in the Caribbean sea. The capital is the city of Caracas. Hugo Chavez was president to Venezuela from 1999 to 2013. The Chavez presidency was plagued with challenges, which included a 2002 coup d'etat, a 2002 national strike and a 2004 recall referendum. Nicolas Maduro was elected president in 2013 after the death of Chavez. Maduro won a second term at the May 2018 Venezuela elections, but this result has been challenged by countries including Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, France and the United States who deemed it fraudulent and moved to recognize Juan Guaido as president. The presidencies of Chavez and Maduro have challenged Venezuela with a socioeconomic and political crisis. It is marked by hyperinflation, climbing hunger, poverty, disease, crime and death rates, social unrest, corruption and emigration from the country. Moody's has withdrawn its 'C' local currency and foreign currency ceilings for Venezuela in September 2022. Standard & Poors has also withdrawn its 'SD/D' foreign currency sovereign credit ratings and 'CCC-/C' local currency ratings on Venezuela in September 2021 due to lack of sufficient information. Fitch withdrew its own 'RD/C' Issuer Default Ratings on Venezuela in June 2019 due to the imposition of U.S. sanctions on the country's government. ********* S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman, Editors. Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746. This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of the publishers. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year, delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information, contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000. . * * * End of Transmission * * *