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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Thursday, January 1, 2026, Vol. 27, No. 1
Headlines
B A H A M A S
SCILEX HOLDING: Subsidiary Secures $100MM Non-Recourse Loan
B R A Z I L
ACHE LABORATORIES: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LT Foreign Currency IDR
BANCO DE BRASILIA: S&P Withdraws 'B-/B' Issuer Credit Ratings
C O L O M B I A
[] Fitch Takes Actions on 3 Colombian Local & Regional Gov'ts.
[] Fitch Takes Actions on 5 Colombian Transportation Projects
P A N A M A
BANISTMO SA: Moody's Alters Outlook on Ba1 Deposit Rating to Neg.
P U E R T O R I C O
RED LOBSTER: High Rents Force Executive Cuts During Turnaround
V E N E Z U E L A
VENEZUELA: Starts Shutting Oil Wells as U.S. Blockade Halts Flows
- - - - -
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B A H A M A S
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SCILEX HOLDING: Subsidiary Secures $100MM Non-Recourse Loan
-----------------------------------------------------------
Scilex Holding Company disclosed in a Form 8-K Report filed with
the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that SCLX Stock
Acquisition JV LLC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company,
entered into a Non-Recourse Loan and Securities Pledge Agreement
with The St. James Bank & Trust Company Ltd., a corporation
existing under the laws of the Bahamas, pursuant to which the
Lender agreed to loan SCLX JV an aggregate principal amount of up
to $100 million in one or more tranches.
The timing and amount of any particular tranche of the Loan shall
be determined at the sole discretion of the Lender, and the Lender
shall notify SCLX JV in advance of its intention to fund a
particular tranche.
The Loan will accrue interest at the rate of the 12-month Secured
Overnight Financing Rate, with such interest due and payable on
the
earlier of Maturity Date and the date of an event of default.
The "Maturity Date" of the Loan is the eighth anniversary of the
closing date of the first tranche of the Loan, and may be extended
by up to 12 months at the request of SCLX JV. SCLX JV is also
required to pay a fee of 0.25% of the principal amount of each
tranche.
Pursuant to the terms of the Loan Agreement, SCLX JV agreed to
pledge such number of shares of common stock of the Company
currently held by SCLX JV equal to 70% of the aggregate principal
amount of the Loan, calculated in accordance with the terms set
forth in the Loan Agreement in favor of the Lender as security for
SCLX JV's satisfaction of its obligations thereunder. The Pledged
Securities will be held in a securities account that SCLX JV or
its
affiliates will open with the Lender.
The Loan Agreement contains certain events of default, including,
without limitation:
* a decrease in the closing price of the Pledged Securities
of
more than 20%, provided that such decrease is not cured within
three days by delivering additional securities into the securities
account or depositing cash into a bank account with the Lender as
security for the Loan;
* a decrease in the average trading volume of the Pledged
Securities for any three consecutive trading days of more than 20%
relative to the average trading volume of the 30 trading day
period
immediately preceding the closing of a tranche of the Loan;
* or the Pledged Securities are delisted from the national
securities exchange on which they are currently listed.
If an event of default occurs and is not cured within the
specified
cure period under the terms of the Loan Agreement, then the Lender
has certain remedies under the Loan Agreement, in addition to any
remedies provided at law or in equity, including, without
limitation, that the interest rate of the Loan will increase by an
additional 5.0% per annum and the Loan Agreement will terminate
automatically with the Lender entitled to foreclose upon or
otherwise dispose of the Pledged Securities.
The Loan Agreement also contains positive and negative covenants,
representations and warranties and indemnification provisions that
are customary for transactions of this type.
A full text copy of the Loan Agreement is available at
https://tinyurl.com/4cud6yxn
About Scilex Holding Company
Palo Alto, Calif.-based Scilex Holding Company --
www.scilexholding.com -- is an innovative revenue-generating
company focused on acquiring, developing and commercializing
non-opioid pain management products for the treatment of acute and
chronic pain and, following the formation of its proposed joint
venture with IPMC Company, neurodegenerative and cardiometabolic
disease. Scilex targets indications with high unmet needs and
large
market opportunities with non-opioid therapies for the treatment
of
patients with acute and chronic pain, and is dedicated to
advancing
and improving patient outcomes. Scilex's commercial products
include: (i) ZTlido (lidocaine topical system) 1.8%, a
prescription
lidocaine topical product approved by the U.S. Food and Drug
Administration for the relief of neuropathic pain associated with
postherpetic neuralgia, which is a form of post-shingles nerve
pain; (ii) ELYXYB, a potential first-line treatment and the only
FDA-approved, ready-to-use oral solution for the acute treatment
of
migraine, with or without aura, in adults; and (iii) Gloperba, the
first and only liquid oral version of the anti-gout medicine
colchicine indicated for the prophylaxis of painful gout flares in
adults.
In its report dated March 31, 2025, the Company's auditor, BMP
LLP,
issued a "going concern" qualification, attached to the Company's
Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended Dec. 31, 2024,
citing
that the Company has suffered recurring losses from operations and
has a net capital deficiency that raise substantial doubt about
its
ability to continue as a going concern.
As of June 30, 2025, Scilex Holding had $83.76 million in total
assets, $332.74 million in total liabilities, and a total
stockholders' deficit of $248.99 million.
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B R A Z I L
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ACHE LABORATORIES: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LT Foreign Currency IDR
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ache Laboratorios Farmaceuticos S.A's
(Ache) Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (LT FC IDR)
and national scale and senior unsecured ratings, respectively at
'BB+' and 'AAA(bra)'. Fitch has also downgraded Ache Laboratorios
Farmaceuticos S.A.'s Long-Term Local Currency Issuer Default Rating
(LT LC IDR) to 'BB+' from 'BBB'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.
The affirmation of Ache's LT FC IDR, national scale and senior
unsecured ratings reflect its solid regional position in Brazil's
stable pharmaceutical retail market. The company leads the
prescription segment and maintains strong, well-established brands
that command pricing premiums.
The downgrade of the LC IDR reflects the concentration of Ache's
operations in Brazil, lack of geographic diversification and its
smaller size compared to the top global pharmaceutical companies,
which limits the rating at this level. It also reflects Ache's
challenges in recovering EBITDA margins and preserving market share
amid a more competitive business environment.
Key Rating Drivers
Pressured Market Position and Diversification: Fitch expects Ache's
market position to remain limited by the highly competitive
environment. Ache is the fourth-largest retail pharmaceutical
company in Brazil and a leader in prescription drugs. It has
well-established brands and a diverse product portfolio. However,
industry players are operating under aggressive commercial
conditions, actively acquiring brands from multinationals and
expanding their products across segments. Fitch believes the
company will continue to face challenges defending its market
position, which will limit its ability to increase scale and
diversification away from Brazil.
Lower Margins Likely to Sustain: As a result of this competitive
environment, Ache's EBITDA margins should revolve around 19%-20%
through 2028, down from a previous expectation of 25%. The
company's strategy to increase investments in sales and R&D to
regain market share and increase profitability in a more
competitive environment may take some time to prove successful.
Recurring Operating Cash Flow: Ache's pre-dividend FCF should
remain close to historical levels. Fitch forecasts EBITDA and cash
flow from operations (CFFO) of BRL1.1 billion and BRL900 million,
respectively, in 2025, and BRL1.2 billion and BRL800 million in
2026, compared with EBITDA of BRL1 billion and CFFO of BRL930
million in 2024. This growth is supported by increased sales from
new product launches and lower working capital pressures.
Conservative Capital Structure: Fitch expects Ache to maintain its
historically low leverage ratios and a conservative capital
structure. Gross and net leverage are expected to remain between
1.5x-2.0x, and 1.0x-1.5x, respectively, from 2025 to 2028, as
margins linger in the high-teens. In 2024, those metrics were
2.2x-1.3x.
Low Portfolio Risk: Ache is not significantly exposed to license
renewals or patent expirations. Like other emerging market
pharmaceutical companies, it has a narrower R&D pipeline than
multinational competitors and a weaker portfolio of patented
products. The company's mature and consistently renewed portfolio,
alongside its capacity to sustain product launches and increase
innovation, will be key factors in maintaining its competitive
position.
Positive Industry Prospects: The pharmaceutical industry has
positive long-term fundamentals in Brazil, driven by an aging
population, increased demand for chronic disease medication and
improved healthcare access. Sector growth has consistently outpaced
that of the Brazilian economy, with annual increases above 10%
since 2021, and Fitch believes that this rate will be sustained at
7% to 10% in the following years. Innovation and investment in
specialized treatments should enhance medicine consumption.
Investment in R&D, maintenance of a sustainable volume of launches
each year and the expansion of the ability to benefit from sector
growth will be key for Ache.
Peer Analysis
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (BB+/Stable) and Viatris
Inc. (BBB/Negative) have far broader geographic footprints than
Ache and product breadth in generics/specialty. This provides
diversification and scale advantages. Teva's innovative assets and
biosimilars underpin growth, but leverage is higher, and
litigation/policy risks weigh on its financial profile. Viatris'
scale and diversified manufacturing footprint support resilient
cash generation, though U.S. generics pricing pressure and
reinvestment needs temper margins.
Hikma Pharmaceuticals PLC's (BBB/Stable) focused strategy in
sterile injectables and strong MENA/U.S. presence deliver
structurally higher EBITDA margins (over 25%) and conservative
leverage (over 1.5x), distinguishing its financial profile from
Aché's high-teens margin outlook. Royalty Pharma PLC's
(BBB-/Stable) model is fundamentally different. Its diversified
royalty portfolio with minimal operating costs yields very high
margins and strong free cash flow, albeit with revenue
concentration and dependence on product sales trajectories.
Originators like Amgen Inc. (BBB/Positive) and diversified life
sciences players like Bayer AG (BBB/Stable) benefit from global
scale, innovation pipelines, and access to capital, supporting
stronger business and financial profiles than Aché. While both
face event risks (patent cycles, litigation), their diversification
and cashflow capacity typically provide greater rating headroom.
Overall, Aché's lower geographic diversification and sustained
margin pressure, despite low leverage and adequate cash generation,
are the key differentiators versus larger, globally diversified and
higher margin peers.
Fitch's Key Rating-Case Assumptions
-- Sales volume growth of 4%-6%, with average price growth of 4%-7%
per year in 2025-2028;
-- Revenue growth of 6% in 2025 and 8%-10% per year in 2026-2028;
-- Average annual capex of BRL400 million in 2025-2028;
-- Dividend pay-out of 7% to 10% of net revenue per year.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
-- Gross and net leverage sustained above 3.5x and 3.0x,
respectively, coupled with EBITDA margin below 15%.
-- Intensifying competitive pressure leading to continued
market-share losses or brand deterioration.
-- A downgrade of Brazil's sovereign rating and/or Country Ceiling,
which could trigger negative rating action on Ache's IDRs.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
-- An upgrade of the LC IDR could occur if Ache's business profile
improves due to a stronger market position and diversification that
reduces exposure to Brazil;
-- Gross and net leverage sustained below 2.0x and 1.5x,
respectively, coupled with EBITDA margin above 25%.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Ache has historically maintained robust liquidity. The company
reported cash and marketable securities of BRL825 million as of
Sept. 30, 2025. Liquidity is further strengthened by an undrawn
BRL300 million revolving credit facility, strong pre-dividend FCF,
and flexible dividend payment to manage cash needs.
Ache's total debt of BRL2.3 billion consists of long-term
transactions from development banks such as Banco Nacional de
Desenvolvimento Economico e Social (BNDES; BB/Stable) with 8%,
Banco do Nordeste do Brasil S.A. (BB/Stable) and others with 14%,
debentures with 56% and Certificates of Real Estate Receivables -
CRI with 22%.
Issuer Profile
Ache is the fourth-largest pharmaceutical company in the Brazilian
retail market. It is a leader in prescription drugs with solid
brand recognition and a diversified product portfolio.
RATING ACTIONS
Rating Prior
------ -----
Ache Laboratorios
Farmaceuticos S.A.
LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
LC LT IDR BB+ Downgrade BBB
Natl LT AAA(bra) Affirmed AAA(bra)
senior unsecured Natl LT AAA(bra) Affirmed AAA(bra)
BANCO DE BRASILIA: S&P Withdraws 'B-/B' Issuer Credit Ratings
-------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings withdrew its long-term 'B-' and short-term 'B'
issuer credit ratings on BRB - Banco de Brasilia S.A. at the
issuer's request. The ratings were on CreditWatch with negative
implications at the time of the withdrawal, and the bank didn't
have any outstanding international issuances or short-term plans to
issue abroad.
S&P's ratings reflected the bank's tight margins and profitability,
constrained capital metrics, and governance and risk management,
particularly in light of investigations into alleged fraud in loans
acquired from Banco Master. Moreover, the CreditWatch negative
reflected the 1-in-2 possibility of a downgrade in the short term,
given it's still unclear how the investigation will unfold and how
much it could affect the bank's reputation, financial risk,
funding, and liquidity.
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C O L O M B I A
===============
[] Fitch Takes Actions on 3 Colombian Local & Regional Gov'ts.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Long-Term Foreign and Local
Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of Bogota, the capital
district of Colombia, and the city of Medellin to 'BB' from 'BB+'.
The Rating Outlooks for both are Stable following the downgrade.
Fitch has also revised the Outlook on the Long-Term Foreign and
Local Currency IDRs of Distrito Especial Industrial y Portuario de
Barranquilla to Stable from Positive and affirmed the IDRs at 'BB'.
Key Rating Drivers
The rating actions reflect the downgrade of the Colombian sovereign
to 'BB' from 'BB+' on Dec. 16, 2025.
Colombian local and regional governments (LRGs) are subject to
decisions of the central government that influence their finances
and responsibilities, and for this reason they cannot be rated
above the sovereign (BB/Stable).
The LRGs' other key rating drivers are unchanged, as are the
standalone credit profiles. For other key rating drivers please see
the previous published rating action commentary for each LRG.
Key Assumptions
Qualitative Assumptions:
-- Risk Profile: Low Midrange;
-- Revenue Robustness: Midrange (Bogotá and Medellín), Weaker
(Barranquilla);
-- Revenue Adjustability: Midrange;
-- Expenditure Sustainability: Midrange;
-- Expenditure Adjustability: Midrange;
-- Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: Midrange;
-- Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: Weaker;
-- Financial Profile: 'aa' (Bogotá and Medellín)/'a'
(Barranquilla);
-- Budget Loans (Notches): N.A.;
-- Ad-Hoc Support (Notches): N.A.;
-- Asymmetric Risks (Notches): N.A;
-- Floor: N.A.;
-- Sovereign Cap: 'BB';
-- Sovereign Cap (Local Currency): 'BB'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
-- A negative action on the sovereign would be reflected in the
LRGs' ratings;
-- Bogota's IDRs could be downgraded if the payback ratio is close
to 11x in the last years of Fitch's rating case;
-- Medellin's IDRs could be downgraded if the enhanced payback
ratio is close to 9.0x, coupled with an enhanced synthetic debt
service coverage ratio (DSCR) below 1.5x, under Fitch's rating
case;
-- Barranquilla's IDRs could be downgraded if the payback ratio is
consistently close to 7.0x, with coverage ratios consistently below
1.2x under Fitch's rating case or if there is a reassessment to
'Weaker' of one of the KRFs assessed as 'Midrange'.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
-- A positive action on the sovereign would be reflected in
Bogota's and Medellin's ratings, all other factors being equal. For
Barranquilla, a payback ratio consistently close to 5.0x with a
ADSCR close to 2.0x, or a payback ratio below 5.0x, under Fitch's
rating case would also be required for an upgrade.
Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings
The IDRs of Bogota and Medellin are capped by those of the
Colombian sovereign. In addition, Barranquilla's Outlooks are
influenced by the Colombian sovereign Outlooks.
RATINGS ACTION
Rating Prior
------ -----
City of Medellin LT IDR BB Downgrade BB+
LC LT IDR BB Downgrade BB+
Distrito Especial Industrial
y Portuario de Barranquilla
LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
LC LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
Bogota, Distrito Capital
LT IDR BB Downgrade BB+
LC LT IDR BB Downgrade BB+
senior unsecured LT BB Downgrade BB+
[] Fitch Takes Actions on 5 Colombian Transportation Projects
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has taken the following rating actions on five
transportation projects in Colombia:
-- P.A. Autopista Rio Magdalena (ARM): Affirmed the ratings on
COP915,500 million UVR Notes and COP278,000 million UVR Loan at
'BB'. The Outlook was revised to Stable from Positive.
-- Fideicomiso P.A. Costera (Costera): Downgraded the ratings on
USD150.8 million USD bonds, COP327,000 million UVR bonds, and
COP135,000 million UVR loan to 'BB' from 'BB+'. The Outlook is
Stable following the downgrade.
-- Fideicomiso P.A. Pacifico Tres (Pacifico Tres): Downgraded the
ratings on USD260.4 million USD bonds, COP397,000 million UVR
bonds and COP300,000 million UVR loan to 'BB' from 'BB+'. The
Outlook is Stable following the downgrade.
-- Patrimonio Autonomo Union del Sur (Union del Sur): Downgraded
the ratings on USD125 million and USD152 million loans,
COP1,019.5 billion loan and COP1,027.5 billion UVR notes to
'BB' from 'BB+'. The Outlook is Stable following the
downgrade.
-- Sociedad Concesionaria Operadora Aeroportuaria Internacional,
S.A. (OPAIN): Downgraded the rating on USD415 million senior
secured notes to 'BB+' from 'BBB-'. The Outlook is Stable.
RATING RATIONALE
The rating actions on ARM, Costera, Pacifico Tres and Union del Sur
reflect the deterioration of Fitch's view on the credit quality of
Agencia Nacional de Infraestructura (ANI)'s contributions to the
projects, which are one of their main revenue sources. These
actions follow Fitch's recent downgrade on Colombia's sovereign
ratings to 'BB'/Stable, as ANI is considered a credit-linked entity
to the Government of Colombia.
The downgrade of OPAIN's rating follows the downgrade on Colombia's
country ceiling to 'BB+' from 'BBB-'. In Fitch's view, the notes'
rating is constrained by Colombia's country ceiling due to the
rated debt's exposure to transfer and convertibility risks, as all
revenue is collected onshore.
These transactions' credit metrics are strong for the current
rating category under the applicable criteria; however, they are
constrained by the exposure to the credit quality of ANI
obligations under the concession agreements for ARM, Costera,
Pacífico Tres, and Union del Sur, and by Colombia's country
ceiling in the case of OPAIN.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Fitch has downgraded Colombia's ratings and country ceiling on
persistent large fiscal deficits that will result in general
government debt to GDP continuing to rise over the medium term and
are diverging further from the peer median. Fitch expects the lack
of a credible fiscal anchor, increased fiscal spending rigidities,
and potential political constraints in implementing revenue-raising
measures will challenge prospects for fiscal consolidation after
the 2026 election, regardless of the outcome.
Colombia's ratings are supported by a track record of preserving
macroeconomic and financial stability, and are constrained by high
fiscal deficits, rising debt/GDP, a high interest burden, and high
commodity dependence.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
For ARM, Costera, Pacifico Tres and Union del Sur
-- Deterioration in the financial and/or operational performance of
the project, leading to a minimum projected loan life coverage
ratio (LLCR) below 1.2x under Fitch rating case assumptions;
-- Deterioration in the credit quality of ANI's contributions to
the project.
For OPAIN
-- Deterioration of Colombia's country ceiling;
-- A substantial deterioration of the project's operational and/or
financial performance that results in DSCRs below 1.3x in FRC.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
For ARM, Costera, Pacifico Tres and Union del Sur
-- Improvement in the credit quality of ANI's grantor obligations.
For OPAIN
-- A positive rating action is unlikely, given the short remaining
life of the rated debt and the current credit quality of the
sovereign.
PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS
The ratings of Costera, Union del Sur, Pacifico Tres and ARM are
constrained by the transactions' exposure to the credit quality of
ANI's obligations under the concession agreements. ANI is a
credit-linked entity to the Government of Colombia (Local Currency
IDR BB/Stable). OPAIN's rating is capped by Colombia's country
ceiling.
RATING ACTIONS
Rating Prior
------ -----
P.A. Autopista Rio Magdalena
P.A. Autopista Rio Magdalena/
Project Revenues - First Lien/
1 LT LT
UVR notes - COU 3.25 bln
6.05% bond/note 15-Jun-2036
69313QAA7 LT BB Affirmed BB
UVR Loan - COU 985.56 mln
term loan 15-Jun-2036 LT BB Affirmed BB
Fideicomiso P.A. Costera
Fideicomiso P.A. Costera/
Project Revenues - First Lien/
1 LT LT
USD 150.8 mln 6.75%
Series A note 30-Jun-
2034 31574FAA5 LT BB Downgrade BB+
UVR 327 bln 6.25%
(Colombia) bond/note
15-Jan-2034 31574FAB3 LT BB Downgrade BB+
COP 135 bln Floating term
loan 30-Jun-2034 LT BB Downgrade BB+
Sociedad Concesionaria
Operadora Aeroportuaria
Internacional S.A.
Sociedad Concesionaria
Operadora Aeroportuaria
Internacional S.A./Airport
Revenues - First Lien/1 LT LT
USD 415 mln 4.09% bond/
note 15-Dec-2026 P8711*AA4. LT BB+ Downgrade BBB-
Patrimonio Autonomo Union del Sur
Patrimonio Autonomo Union
del Sur/Project Revenues -
First Lien/1 LT LT
USD Tranche A 124.7 mln
term loan 15-May-2030 LT BB Downgrade BB+
USD Tranche B 151.8 mln
term loan 15-May-2037 LT BB Downgrade BB+
IPC Loans COP 1.02 trl
term loan 30-Apr-2030 LT BB Downgrade BB+
COU 3.53 bln 6.66% bond/
note 28-Feb-2041 credit
agreement dated as of
10-feb-2022 70338LAA7 LT BB Downgrade BB+
Fideicomiso P.A. Pacifico Tres
Fideicomiso P.A. Pacifico Tres/
Project Revenues - First Lien/
1 LT LT
USD Bond 31574EAA8 LT BB Downgrade BB+
UVR Bond 31574EAB6 LT BB Downgrade BB+
UVR Loan LT BB Downgrade BB+
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P A N A M A
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BANISTMO SA: Moody's Alters Outlook on Ba1 Deposit Rating to Neg.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed all ratings and assessments assigned
to Banistmo, S.A. (Banistmo), including the Ba1 long-term foreign
currency deposit rating, the Ba1 long-term foreign currency senior
unsecured debt rating, as well as the Baa3(cr) long-term
counterparty risk assessment and Baa3 long-term counterparty risk
rating. In addition, Moody's also affirmed Banistmo's ba1 baseline
credit assessment (BCA) and ba1 adjusted BCA, the P-3 short-term
counterparty risk rating, Not-Prime short-term deposit rating, and
the P-3(cr) short-term counterparty risk assessment. The outlook on
the long-term deposit and senior unsecured ratings was changed to
negative, from stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The affirmation of Banistmo's Ba1 deposit rating and ba1 BCA is
supported by the bank's solid capitalization sustained over the
past five years and the gradual improvement in profitability since
early 2025. Its sizable core deposit base, that accounted for 9% of
total deposits in Panama in September 2025, is also a credit
strength supporting Banistmo's ba1 BCA.
However, over the past four years, Banistmo's asset quality has
remained weaker than peers and historic levels, and remains a
negative credit driver to its financial profile. Problem loans,
measured by Stage 3 exposures, stood at 9.4% of gross loans as of
September 2025, well above the system average of 2.4% in the same
period. Despite efforts to stabilize Stage 2 formation, the high
level of problem loans underscores the bank's significant portfolio
concentration in single-name borrowers and in the construction and
real estate sectors, as well as the ongoing contraction in loan
volumes since 2023. While Banistmo benefits from substantial
collateralization, loan loss coverage has trended downward since
2023, staying at a low 51.5% of problem loans as of September
2025.
Profitability improved in September 2025, with net income to
tangible assets rising to 1.1% from 0.6% a year earlier. However,
the slowdown in loan origination, persistent margin compression and
low efficiency metrics reported by the bank will constrain further
improvements over the coming quarters.
Capitalization remains a key credit strength supporting Banistmo's
ba1 BCA, alongside its sizable core deposit base. The bank's
tangible common equity (TCE) to risk-weighted assets (RWA) stood at
13.7% in September 2025, consistent with historical averages and
providing a buffer against continued asset risk pressures. As
Panama's second-largest commercial bank, Banistmo maintains a solid
funding profile compared to other similar sized banks in Panama,
with core deposits representing 80% of total liabilities in
September 2025, despite muted annual growth in the last nine
months. This funding strength helps offset its moderate liquidity
buffers.
OUTLOOK CHANGED TO NEGATIVE
The outlook revision to negative reflects the bank's pressured
financial profile, driven by persistent challenges in improving
asset quality since 2023 and profitability pressures from tighter
margins that have limited business expansion. In this context, the
announced sale of Banistmo by Colombian GRUPO CIBEST S.A. (Ba2
stable) to Inversiones Cuscatlán Centroamérica S.A. on December
18, 2025, introduce execution risks during the integration process,
given Panama's highly competitive banking segment, characterized by
elevated funding costs, which continues to strain overall loan
growth capacity.
Banistmo's Ba1 deposit rating currently incorporates Moody's
assumptions of a moderate likelihood of support from GRUPO CIBEST
S.A. while the transaction awaits regulatory approval, which are
expected for the second half of 2026. However, this expectation of
affiliate support does not result in any ratings uplift for
Banistmo.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The BCA could be downgraded if execution risks from the change in
ownership materialize and Banistmo's asset quality does not recover
during the outlook horizon, or if the bank were to experience
significant deterioration in capitalization, funding conditions or
profitability levels as it awaits for regulatory approvals.
Evidence of increased risk appetite, for example, above-peer
average loan growth or a notable increase in lending
concentrations, would also be negative for the BCA.
While an upgrade of Banistmo's BCA and ratings is unlikely over the
next 12 to 18 months given the negative outlook, the bank could
return to a stable outlook if Moody's observes a
faster-than-expected recovery in asset quality, alongside steady
capitalization and profitability.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published
in November 2025.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
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P U E R T O R I C O
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RED LOBSTER: High Rents Force Executive Cuts During Turnaround
--------------------------------------------------------------
Eliza Ronalds-Hannon of Bloomberg News reports that Red Lobster is
cutting executive and corporate roles while working to renegotiate
burdensome leases that have complicated its efforts to return to
consistent profitability after bankruptcy, according to people
familiar with the matter.
Dozens of poorly performing locations continue to drag on results,
which remain largely unchanged from where the company stood before
its bankruptcy filing last year, the people said, notes the
report.
The company confirmed that about 10% of its corporate workforce
has
been eliminated, along with roughly 200 positions at the
restaurant
level, the report states.
About Red Lobster Restaurants
Red Lobster Hospitality, LLC is an American casual dining
restaurant chain headquartered in Orlando, Florida. The company
has
operations across most of the United States (including Puerto Rico
and Guam) and Canada, as well as in China, Ecuador, Hong Kong,
Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Turkey and the United Arab
Emirates; as of June 23, 2020, the company had 719 locations
worldwide.
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V E N E Z U E L A
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VENEZUELA: Starts Shutting Oil Wells as U.S. Blockade Halts Flows
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Bloomberg News reports that Venezuela started shutting wells in a
region
that holds the world's largest deposits of oil in the face of a
blockade
by the Trump administration meant to financially squeeze the
nation.
Petroleos de Venezuela SA began shuttering wells in the Orinoco
Belt on
Dec. 28 as the state-run refiner ran out of storage space and
inventory
swelled, according to the report.
PDVSA aims to reduce Orinoco Belt production by at least 25% to
500,000
barrels a day, the people said, the report notes.
The decrease represents a 15% cut of Venezuela's overall output of
1.1
million barrels a day, the report adds.
About Venezuela
Venezuela, officially the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, is a
country on the northern coast of South America, consisting of a
continental landmass and a large number of small islands and
islets in the Caribbean sea. The capital is the city of Caracas.
Hugo Chavez was president to Venezuela from 1999 to 2013. The
Chavez presidency was plagued with challenges, which included a
2002 coup d'etat, a 2002 national strike and a 2004 recall
referendum. Nicolas Maduro was elected president in 2013 after
the death of Chavez. Maduro won a second term at the May 2018
Venezuela elections, but this result has been challenged by
countries including Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Canada,
Germany, France and the United States who deemed it fraudulent and
moved to recognize Juan Guaido as president.
The presidencies of Chavez and Maduro have challenged Venezuela
with a socioeconomic and political crisis. It is marked by
hyperinflation, climbing hunger, poverty, disease, crime and death
rates, social unrest, corruption and emigration from the country.
Moody's has withdrawn its 'C' local currency and foreign currency
ceilings for Venezuela in September 2022. Standard & Poors has
also withdrawn its 'SD/D' foreign currency sovereign credit
ratings and 'CCC-/C' local currency ratings on Venezuela in
September 2021 due to lack of sufficient information. Fitch
withdrew its own 'RD/C' Issuer Default Ratings on Venezuela in
June 2019 due to the imposition of U.S. sanctions on the country's
government.
*********
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