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251031.mbx T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R L A T I N A M E R I C A Friday, October 31, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 218 Headlines A R G E N T I N A ARGENTINA: IDB OKs $500MM-Loan to Expand Healthcare Benefits YPF SA: Argentina Fights $16 Billion Lawsuit in U.S. Court B R A Z I L JBS SA: Acquires Majority Stake in Granjeros Campo 9 C H I L E CHILE: Quiet Boom as Peso Strengthens and Stocks Soar Amid Shadows C O S T A R I C A BANCO NACIONAL DE COSTA RICA: S&P Raises LongTerm ICR to 'BB' INSTITUTO COSTARRICENSE: Fitch Affirms 'BB' IDRs, Outlook Positive E C U A D O R ECUADOR: IMF Unlocks $600 Million as Reforms Gain Pace J A M A I C A JAMAICA: Generates $448.8BB in Tax Revenues for April to August M E X I C O ASCEND PERFORMANCE: Court Approves Disclosure Statement in Ch. 11 MEXICO: Constrained by Needed Fiscal Consolidation, IMF Says P A R A G U A Y BANCO CONTINENTAL: Fitch Alters Outlook on 'BB+' IDR to Positive - - - - - ================= A R G E N T I N A ================= ARGENTINA: IDB OKs $500MM-Loan to Expand Healthcare Benefits ------------------------------------------------------------ The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has approved a $500 million Loan Based on Results to increase healthcare benefits for retirees and pensioners affiliated with the National Institute of Social Services for Retirees and Pensioners. The operation, which has been approved by the IDB Board of Executive Directors, aims to improve existing comprehensive care policies for chronic diseases, provide more access to cancer treatment, expand coverage for people who need long-term care, and enhance affiliates’ experience with the services provided by the Institute. The program will also promote the systematic use of information from institutional systems as input to guide government work. Among other outcomes, the operation aims to expand comprehensive coverage for hypertension, diabetes, and kidney disease; reduce waiting times for breast and colon cancer surgeries; and increase access to long-term care for those who need it. This program will benefit nearly 5.4 million affiliates. The National Institute of Social Services for Retirees and Pensioners provides comprehensive health coverage and social assistance to retirees and pensioners and their dependents through its own health centers or by purchasing services from public or private entities. The IDB loan has a 25-year repayment term, a 5.5-year grace period, and an interest rate based on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR). About Argentina Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position. Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution and in the recent decades, increasing poverty. In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion, or 1000 percent of quota) -- with an approved immediate disbursement of an equivalent of US$9.65 billion. Argentina's IMF-supported program sought to improve public finances and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a multi-pronged strategy. On April 11, 2025, the IMF further approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling US$20 billion (or 479 percent of quota), with an immediate disbursement of US$12 billion, and a first review planned for June 2025 with an associated disbursement of about US$2 billion. The program is expected to help catalyze additional official multilateral and bilateral support, and a timely re-access to international capital markets. Fitch Ratings, on May 12, 2025, upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign-Currency and Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC+' from 'CCC'. The upgrade reflects the launch of a new IMF program, among other things. S&P Global Ratings, in February 2025 lowered its local currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'SD/SD' from 'CCC/C' and its national scale rating to 'SD' from 'raB+'. Moody's Ratings, in January 2025, raised Argentina's local currency ceiling to B3 from Caa1 and the foreign currency ceiling to Caa1 from Caa3. DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC in November 2024. YPF SA: Argentina Fights $16 Billion Lawsuit in U.S. Court ---------------------------------------------------------- Matias Sebastian Lopez at Rio Times Online reports that Argentina is engaged in a high-stakes legal battle in New York, appealing a monumental $16.1 billion court judgment that threatens to destabilize its fragile economic recovery. The case, stemming from Argentina's 2012 nationalization of energy company YPF, represents one of the largest claims ever brought against a sovereign nation in U.S. courts, according to Rio Times Online. The core of the dispute dates back over a decade, when the Argentine government seized a controlling stake in YPF from Spanish firm Repsol without offering to purchase shares from minority investors, the report notes. U.S. courts found this action violated YPF's own corporate bylaws, leading to the massive penalty now under review, the report says. For President Javier Milei, the timing is critical. His administration has implemented severe austerity measures that have begun stabilizing Argentina's economy, achieving its first budget surplus in 14 years, the report notes. A ruling against Argentina could consume nearly half of the nation's 2024 budget, potentially undermining this progress, the report discloses. The legal proceedings have drawn attention beyond Argentina's borders, the report says. The U.S. government has expressed concerns that enforcing the judgment by seizing Argentine state assets could set a problematic precedent for international relations and sovereign immunity, the report notes. As a three-judge panel of the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals considers the case, the international business community watches closely, the report relays. The outcome will test the limits of cross-border investment protection and could influence how foreign governments interact with global capital markets, the report says. For Argentina, it represents both a legacy of past policies and a critical challenge to its economic future, the report notes. The court's decision, expected within months, will determine whether Argentina must pay the staggering sum or if it can continue focusing on its delicate economic restructuring, the report adds. About YPF SA YPF SA, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in Argentina. Its upstream operations include the exploration, exploitation, and production of crude oil, and natural gas. The company's downstream operations include petrochemical production and crude oil refining; transportation and distribution of refined and petrochemical products; commercialization of crude oil, petrochemical products, and specialties. As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in January 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed YPF S.A.'s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'CCC'. Additionally, Fitch has affirmed YPF's outstanding senior unsecured notes at 'CCC' with Recovery Rating of 'RR4'. The company's Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) remains 'b', and its ratings are aligned with Fitch's "Government Related Entities Criteria," reflecting government ownership and strategy. =========== B R A Z I L =========== JBS SA: Acquires Majority Stake in Granjeros Campo 9 ---------------------------------------------------- Latinlawyer.com reports that law firm Ferrere has helped Brazilian meat giant JBS acquire a 90% stake in Paraguayan poultry producer Granjeros Campo 9 for US$135 million. About JBS SA JBS S.A. is a Brazilian company that is a large meat processing enterprise, producing factory processed beef, chicken, salmon, pork, and also selling by-products from the processing of these meats. It is headquartered in Sao Paulo. It was founded in 1953 in Anapolis, Goias. As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in August 2021, S&P Global Ratings revised the global scale outlook on JBS S.A. (JBS) and its fully owned subsidiary JBS USA Lux S.A. (JBS USA) to positive from stable and affirmed its 'BB+' issuer credit rating. The recovery expectations remain unchanged, and S&P affirmed the 'BB+' ratings on the senior unsecured notes and the 'BBB' ratings on the secured term loans. ========= C H I L E ========= CHILE: Quiet Boom as Peso Strengthens and Stocks Soar Amid Shadows ------------------------------------------------------------------ Rio Times Online reports that Chile's economy pulses with understated vigor, a beacon for those tracking emerging markets from afar. On Oct. 29, the Chilean peso nudged ahead against the U.S. dollar, settling at 942.67—a 0.23% easing from Oct. 28 - while the IPSA stock index claimed its 50th annual record at 9,232.17, rising 0.27%, according to Rio Times Online. These moves reveal more than metrics: they spotlight a copper-dependent powerhouse deftly sidestepping global tempests, from Fed rate jitters to trade truce hopes, the report notes. The session set the stage. The dollar-peso traded in a tight 930-944 band, closing at 942.27 after a faint 0.10% uptick, as investors paused ahead of the Federal Reserve verdict, the report relays. Copper, fueling half of Chile's exports, lifted 0.5% to $4.50 per pound, a vital buffer against dollar flux, the report discloses. With inflation anchored at 3.2% and 2025 GDP eyed at 2.1%, $15 billion in foreign inflows underscore appeal, the report says. Overnight, U.S.-China détente murmurs trimmed the Dollar Index to 98.577—off 2.5% this month—historically boosting commodity peers like the peso by 85% in tandem rallies, the report relays. Beneath the surface, Chile's story is elemental: as the world's premier copper supplier, it harnesses Beijing's electric vehicle surge and Washington's monetary thaw, the report notes. Chile Tests Resilience as Dollar and Fed Shifts Loom Yet fragility persists—a hawkish Fed could jolt the dollar, probing 935 support in a daily bearish channel where RSI lingers at 45, edging oversold on four-hour scans, the report relays. IPSA's climb highlights sectoral divides. Mining leader CAP jumped 2.1%, retailer Cencosud 1.8%, telecom Entel 1.5%, Banco de Chile 1.5%, and utility Colbún 1.0%, buoyed by Wall Street echoes, the report says. Consumer holdouts faltered: Ripley shed 1.15%, Mallplaza 0.74%, Viña Concha y Toro 0.39%, Parque Arauco 0.34%, and Itau CorpBanca 0.30%, exposing valuation pressures, the report notes. Should the Fed lean dovish, expect the peso at 935 and IPSA nearing 9,300—a narrative of poised export resilience, the report discloses. For global observers, Chile illustrates how distant wires in EVs can wire prosperity home, urging a closer gaze at this Andean outlier, the report adds. =================== C O S T A R I C A =================== BANCO NACIONAL DE COSTA RICA: S&P Raises LongTerm ICR to 'BB' ------------------------------------------------------------- S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term issuer credit ratings on Banco Nacional de Costa Rica (BNCR) to 'BB' from 'BB-'. At the same time, S&P affirmed its short-term global scale rating at 'B' on the bank. The outlook is stable. On Oct 22, 2025, S&P Global Ratings upgraded its long-term foreign currency credit rating on Costa Rica to 'BB' from 'BB-'. S&P also affirmed its 'B' short-term credit rating. The outlook on the long-term rating is stable. S&P also revised its view of economic risk in Costa Rica's Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) to a stronger category, reflecting lower economic imbalances in the country that would support business conditions for the banking system. This change led S&P to revise Costa Rica's BICRA group to '7' from '8' and the bank anchor to 'bb' from 'bb-'. The trends for economic risk and industry risk are stable. The sovereign upgrade reflects stronger external buffers that have reduced the impact from external shocks. Costa Rica is increasingly becoming a high-tech manufacturing and service hub, attracting foreign direct investment and high-end tourism. Substantial dollar inflows from trade, FDI, and some access to borrowings from the IMF and MLIs have bolstered the country's external buffers. Costa Rica's international reserves rose to almost $16 billion in October 2025 from $6 billion-$8 billion during the past decade. Furthermore, Costa Rica was granted a flexible credit line from the IMF for $1.5 billion and a contingent credit line from Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean for $500 million, among other buffers. As a result, S&P forecasts gross external financing needs to decline to around 95% of current account receipts (CAR) and usable reserves in the next three years. Finally, the dynamic export sector has also allowed Costa Rica to improve consistently its external debt profile, through increasing exports mainly in the free-trade zones related mostly to high-tech manufacturing for electronic and medical devices and services. The country is projected to have a current account deficit (CAD) of 1%-2% of GDP over the next four years, fully financed by foreign direct investment (FDI) of about 4.5% of GDP annually. As a result, narrow net external debt is expected to decline to an average of 19% of current account receipts. However, the country remains vulnerable to sudden shifts in FDI. S&P said, "We revised our economic risk score in Costa Rica's BICRA to a stronger category driven by abated imbalances. We expect current economic momentum in the country will ultimately translate into more favorable business conditions for the financial sector, reflecting improved lending dynamics and receding risks from imbalances. The latter as a result of a better external positioning in the country, while the financial system maintains healthy lending dynamics. We consider the banking system to be in a recovery phase due to muted growth in the mortgage segment. Nevertheless, improving macroeconomic conditions in the country have resulted in buoyant consumer spending and favorable dynamics in the commercial lending segments, especially industrial, tourism, and services. "Moreover, we anticipate the improving conditions for the financial system will be accompanied by manageable asset quality metrics. Asset quality has proven resilient during periods of stress such as the pandemic-induced economic crisis. We anticipate the financial system to post nonperforming assets to total loans at about 2.8% by year end 2025, and for this ratio to continue improving gradually to 2.5% for the next two years, fully covered by reserves. We project a similar trend in credit losses, which will hover around 0.9% in 2025 and 0.7%-0.8% in 2026-2027, and we expect NPAs and credit losses to converge to new cyclical lows. In our view, these asset quality indicators are consistent with peers that have the same BICRA economic risk score as Costa Rica. "Our revised economic risk score also results in a revision of the BICRA group and the bank anchor to stronger categories. We now assess the country's BICRA group as '7' compared with '8' previously, on a scale of '1' to '10', with '10' denoting the highest risk. In addition, we revised the anchor, our starting point for rating banks operating primarily in Costa Rica, to 'bb' from 'bb-'. "Our BICRA economic risk and industry risk trends are stable. In our view, the country will maintain a favorable economic panorama--reflected in steady unemployment rates and rising business confidence--which will translate into more favorable conditions for the banking system amid lower economic imbalances. We expect the financial system will gradually benefit from the spillover from recent economic momentum through steady lending growth rates. Moreover, we anticipate the system will continue posting controlled and improving asset quality. "On the other hand, we anticipate that state-owned banks will continue to dominate the domestic market, resulting in lower profitability metrics than other regional systems. Moreover, Costa Rica's banking regulatory framework remains below international standards. The adoption of Basel III is still pending, and it will take time to be fully adopted. Finally, the stable industry risk trend incorporates our expectations that the systemwide funding will continue composed mainly by core customer deposits while access to capital markets will remain limited. "The upgrade of BNCR mirrors the sovereign rating action. In our view, the bank will remain a key GRE for Costa Rica, acting as a financial vehicle for economic development in the country. Moreover, the current central government's guarantee of BNCR's liabilities provides higher financial flexibility to the bank than peers and reflects a commitment to grant extraordinary government support, if necessary. As a result, we align our local and foreign currency ratings on the bank with those on the country. In addition, following the BICRA anchor revision for banks operating only in Costa Rica, we also revised BNCR's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) to 'bb' from 'bb-'." BNCR's SACP continues to reflect: -- Its strong presence in the financial system and broad product diversification, -- S&P's expectations of steady capitalization, -- Delinquency levels slightly above those of the financial system average, -- Stable funding base (mainly composed of core customer deposits), and -- Sound liquidity position. S&P said, "For the next several years, amid the favorable economic momentum in the country, we anticipate BNCR will continue promoting key economic sectors such as agriculture, small and midsize enterprises, housing, tourism, and productive activities. We also anticipate that the bank's long-term strategy will remain aligned with its objectives stated by regulatory bylaws, without any material disruption amid upcoming presidential elections." Outlook S&P said, "The stable rating outlook on BNCR for the next 12-24 months mirrors the outlook on our sovereign rating on Costa Rica. We expect the GRE will maintain its key role for the government by acting as financing vehicle for the development of the country. Therefore, the ratings on the bank will move in tandem with those on the sovereign." Downside scenario S&P said, "If we take a negative rating action on Costa Rica in the coming 12-24 months, we could take the same action on BNCR. This could happen if persistent delays in accessing external borrowing were to lead to significant pressures on the domestic capital markets. Furthermore, an economic slowdown among Costa Rica's key trading partners, external shocks, or insecurity weighing on its balance-of-payments position and economic performance could lead to a downgrade." Upside scenario S&P said, "We could raise our ratings on BNCR in the next 12-24 months if we take the same action on the sovereign. This could occur if Costa Rica's improved policy coordination between the executive and the legislative branches of government were to lessen the long-standing political obstacles to pass reform legislation. We could also raise the rating if Costa Rica's economy were to grow consistently above those of peers, gradually increasing its per capita income." Costa Rica--BICRA Score Snapshot To From BICRA group 7 8 Economic risk 6 7 Economic resilience High Risk High Risk Economic imbalances Intermediate Risk High Risk Credit risk in the economy High Risk High Risk Trend Stable Positive Industry risk 8 8 Institutional framework High Risk High Risk Competitive dynamics Extremely Extremely High Risk High Risk Systemwide funding High Risk High Risk Trend Stable Stable Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) economic risk and industry risk scores are on a scale from 1 (lowest risk) to 10 (highest risk). Ratings Score Snapshot To From Issuer Credit Rating BB/Stable/B BB-/Positive/B SACP bb bb- Anchor bb bb- Business position Strong (1) Strong (1) Capital and earnings Moderate (0) Moderate (0) Risk position Moderate (-1) Moderate (-1) Funding and liquidity Adequate and Adequate and adequate (0) adequate (0) Comparable ratings analysis 0 0 Support 0 0 ALAC support 0 0 GRE support 0 0 Group support 0 0 Sovereign support 0 0 Additional factors 0 0 SACP--Stand-alone credit profile. INSTITUTO COSTARRICENSE: Fitch Affirms 'BB' IDRs, Outlook Positive ------------------------------------------------------------------ Fitch Ratings has affirmed Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad y Subsidiarias' (ICE) Long-Term Foreign Currency and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB' and its senior unsecured bonds at 'BB'. The Rating Outlook is Positive. ICE has a strong link with the government of Costa Rica (BB/Positive), given its strategic importance to the country and the potential socio-political and financial implications that could arise from any financial difficulty of the company. The ratings also incorporate ICE's diversified asset portfolio, moderate capital investment program, and strong market position in both the electricity and telecommunications sectors. Key Rating Drivers Sovereign Equalization Drives Outlook: ICE is an autonomous entity, but its ratings and Outlook are directly influenced by its strong connection and ownership by the Costa Rican government. Costa Rica plays a role in authorizing the company's capex and debt issuances, supporting ICE's monopolistic control over the country's electricity sector and 40% control of national telecommunications services. Per the "Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria," Fitch views government support as 'virtually certain' for the company, resulting in a score of 50 out of 60. A default event at ICE would have a very strong negative impact on the sovereign regarding the availability and cost of financing. Capex Increase: Fitch expects a significant rise in capital investments in the coming years to modernize power generation and distribution and fund telecom upgrades. Fitch projects capex will average CRC 477,000 million per year through 2028. This is an elevated 29% of revenue vs. an 8% average in prior years. It will be funded by internally generated cash flow and additional debt. Stable Leverage: Projected gross debt/EBITDA will maintain between 3x and 4x through 2028 due to incremental debt supporting the sizable capex plan, as well as reflecting debt amortizations, EBITDA growth and lower expenses. In 2024 the company faced higher costs due to drought conditions, which have reversed during 2025 so far. Fitch's base case assumes electricity demand growth of about 2.8% per year, driven mainly by higher residential consumption (extreme heat). Improved Regulatory Transparency: Fitch believes the tariff-setting process has been reformed toward greater clarity, supported by an impartial regulator with company input. Information and inputs are drawn from audited financial statements and transparent accounting records. Tariffs are adjusted at least annually and account for the company's operating costs and variable generation costs (CVG), while ensuring a return on investment. Diversified Asset Portfolio: ICE is a vertically integrated monopoly in the electricity sector and the incumbent operator in Costa Rica's telecommunications industry. ICE accounts for 75% of the National Electric System's installed capacity and generates an average of 85% of total electricity consumed in Costa Rica. The company holds about 44% of the postpaid mobile market by subscribers. The ratings reflect the company's low business risk, stemming from its commercial diversification and favorable attributes as a public service provider. Peer Analysis ICE's linkage to the sovereign is similar to that of integrated utility Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE; BBB-/Stable), the rating of which mirrors that of the Mexican sovereign. CFE's strategic importance to Mexico, and the potentially significant negative socio-political and financial implications of any financial distress at the company, results in a very strong incentive and responsibility of the Mexican government to provide support. Key Assumptions - ICE remains important to the government as a strategic asset for the country; - Electricity demand drives the majority of revenue, approximating to 3% yoy GDP growth; - Leverage approaching 4.0x from 2025-2028 with additional debt to service capex plan; - Capex spending of CRC1.9 billion from 2025-2028; - Year-end cash averaging around CRC500 million through 2028; - ICE's telecommunications market share remains dominant. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade - A sovereign downgrade; - A weakening of the link between ICE and the sovereign, and a material deterioration of ICE's operating and financial profile; - Regulatory intervention that negatively affects the company. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade - An upgrade of the sovereign's ratings. Liquidity and Debt Structure ICE's liquidity position is adequate, with a cash and equivalents balance of approximately of CRC318 billion as of 2Q25 and total debt of CRC1.778 billion. ICE's expects debt to increase for capex financing in the next three years, primarily to fund electricity segment projects. Issuer Profile ICE is a government-owned, vertically integrated monopoly in the electricity industry, in charge of developing, constructing and operating an electric power generation, transmission and distribution system. It is also the incumbent player in the telecommunications industry. MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items included. ESG Considerations ICE has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance Structure and Group Structure due to ownership concentration as a majority government-owned entity and due to the inherent governance risks that arise with a dominant state shareholder. This has a negative impact on the credit profile and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors. The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. Entity/Debt Rating Prior ----------- ------ ----- Instituto Costarricense de Electricidad y Subsidiarias LT IDR BB Affirmed BB LC LT IDR BB Affirmed BB senior unsecured LT BB Affirmed BB ============= E C U A D O R ============= ECUADOR: IMF Unlocks $600 Million as Reforms Gain Pace ------------------------------------------------------ Matias Sebastian Lopez at Rio Times Online reports that Ecuador just unlocked $600 million from the International Monetary Fund after the lender's board signed off on the program's third review. The four-year arrangement began in May 2024 at $4 billion and was expanded in mid-2025 to $5 billion at Quito's request, according to Rio Times Online. With this tranche, total disbursements rise to roughly $2.7 billion, the report notes. Crucially, the IMF said Ecuador met all agreed targets through end-August 2025—an important credibility signal for a country that uses the U.S. dollar and cannot print its way out of trouble, the report says. Dollarization is the story behind the story. Because Ecuador lacks its own currency, it must fund the budget and the economy with real cash—from taxes, borrowing, or external support—and keep the central bank stocked with reserves, the report discloses. IMF money matters not only for the headline figure but for what it unlocks: lower borrowing costs, steadier reserves, and a green light for other lenders who want to see reforms on track before stepping in, the report notes. The reforms are where the politics and economics collide, the report relays. The government has tightened fiscal policy and is reshaping subsidies so support is better targeted to low-income households, while pushing clearer electricity tariff rules, the report discloses. Ecuador's Reforms Test Stability and Market Confidence Those moves aim to cut waste and reduce debt without gutting social protection, the report notes. On the macro side, growth is rebounding faster than earlier projections, non-oil exports are setting records, inflation is low, and banks remain broadly stabl -- conditions that make each dollar of external support go further, the report relays. Yet the path is narrow. Fuel and electricity reforms are sensitive, global rates remain volatile, and commodity swings can widen financing needs overnight, the report discloses. Future IMF reviews—and whether Ecuador keeps meeting them—will determine if spreads keep falling, reserves keep rising, and the country reopens durable market access, the report says. Why this matters beyond Ecuador: it's a live test of how a dollarized, commodity-exposed economy can restore stability without sacrificing the social floor, the report notes. The outcome will shape Andean trade and capital flows, influence investor appetite for frontier markets, and offer a real-world playbook—good or bad—for countries weighing hard choices between subsidies today and solvency tomorrow, the report adds. ============= J A M A I C A ============= JAMAICA: Generates $448.8BB in Tax Revenues for April to August --------------------------------------------------------------- RJR News reports that the Government of Jamaica says it generated $448.8 billion in tax revenues and grants during the period April to August of this fiscal year. It says this amount was 1.3% more than the $442.8 billion in budgeted for, according to RJR News. Tax revenues were running at $356 billion or 2.2% more than programmed for, the report notes. However, despite this higher than programmed revenue collection, it spent only $466 billion, 2.9% less than the amount projected, the report relays. The $21 billion capital budget was underutilised by 19%, the report says. The fiscal deficit, which measures the difference between what the government collects in revenues and grants and what it spends, was $17.8 billion, when it should have been $37.6 billion, the report discloses. Meanwhile, the primary surplus, or the amount of money which is set aside to service the debt was $50.5 billion, when it should have been $36.4 billion, the report adds. About Jamaica Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial and insurance services. On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable. In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to positive. =========== M E X I C O =========== ASCEND PERFORMANCE: Court Approves Disclosure Statement in Ch. 11 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Ascend Performance Materials, a leading producer of high-performance and durable engineered materials for everyday essentials and new technologies, announced on Oct. 20, 2025, that the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of Texas has approved the Disclosure Statement for Ascend's Plan of Reorganization. Court approval of the Disclosure Statement marks the beginnings of the formal process to solicit votes on the Company's Plan. The Disclosure Statement provides creditors with detailed information regarding the terms of the Plan and will accompany the ballots that will be sent to those eligible to vote on the Plan. The Court has set a voting deadline of November 18, 2025, at 4:00 p.m. prevailing Central Time. Following the solicitation process, the Bankruptcy Court will conduct a hearing to consider confirmation of the Plan, which is currently scheduled for November 24, 2025. The Company remains on track to emerge from the Chapter 11 process by Q4 2025 with a recapitalized, healthier balance sheet. "We began this process with a clear goal: to strengthen Ascend's financial foundation so we can continue executing our long-term strategy from a position of stability and growth," said Phil McDivitt, president and CEO of Ascend Performance Materials. "Today's milestone represents meaningful progress toward that goal. I'm deeply grateful to our customers and partners for their continued trust, and to our employees for their dedication and hard work. Together, we're positioning Ascend to emerge as a strong, well-capitalized business--ready to deliver the high-quality performance materials our customers rely on for many years to come." A spokesperson for the new investor consortium said, "We are excited to provide over $500 million of fresh equity capital to support Ascend's significant delevering and help drive the company's long-term growth. We are confident that Ascend has bright prospects ahead, and we are looking forward to partnering with the company to continue to deliver high-quality, reliable materials to its customers in the future." About Ascend Performance Materials Holdings The Debtors, together with their non-Debtor affiliates, are one of the largest, fully-integrated producers of nylon, a plastic that is used in everyday essentials, like apparel, carpets, and tires, as well as new technologies, like electric vehicles and solar energy systems. Ascend's business primarily revolves around the production and sale of nylon 6,6 (PA66), along with the chemical intermediates and downstream products derived from it. Common applications of PA66 include heating and cooling systems, air bags, batteries, and athletic apparel. Headquartered in Houston, Texas, Ascend has a global workforce of approximately 2,200 employees and operates eleven manufacturing facilities that span the United States, Mexico, Europe, and Asia. Ascend Performance Materials Holdings Inc. and its affiliates filed voluntary petitions for relief under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code (Bankr. S.D. Tex. Lead Case No. 25-90127) on April 21, 2025. In the petitions signed by Robert Del Genio, chief restructuring officer, the Debtors disclosed $1 billion to $10 billion in both estimated assets and liabilities. Judge Christopher M. Lopez oversees the cases. The Debtors tapped Bracewell LLP and Kirkland & Ellis LLP as counsel; PJT Partners, Inc. as investment banker; FTI Consulting, Inc. as restructuring advisor; and Deloitte LLP as tax advisor. Epiq Corporate Restructuring LLC is the Debtors' claims, noticing, and solicitation agent. GA Group Advisory & Valuation Services, LLC serves as valuation advisor. The official committee of unsecured creditors retained Brown Rudnick LLP as co-counsel; Parkins & Rubio LLP as Texas co counsel; AlixPartners, LLP as financial advisor; and Ducera Partners LLC and Ducera Securities LLC as investment banker. Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher LLP represents an Ad Hoc Group of Term Loan Lenders. MEXICO: Constrained by Needed Fiscal Consolidation, IMF Says ------------------------------------------------------------ The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Article IV Consultation for Mexico. The authorities have consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation. After expanding by 1.5 percent in 2024, the economy is projected to grow 1.0 percent in 2025, as activity is constrained by needed fiscal consolidation and restrictive monetary policy, as well as the dampening effect of trade uncertainty on consumption and investment. Activity is expected to pick up to 1.5 percent in 2026 as domestic policies ease, although the effect of tariffs and trade uncertainty will continue constraining growth. Soft activity, normalizing food prices, and the recent appreciation of the peso are all expected to support the convergence of inflation to Banxico's 3-percent target by the second half of 2026. While the fiscal expansion of 2024 is expected to be reversed this year, gross public sector debt is projected to reach 58.9 percent of GDP at end-year. The authorities' fiscal targets for 2026-30 entail additional deficit reduction, although the debt-to-GDP ratio would rise steadily over the medium term. Banxico has cut interest rates by 375 basis points since early-2024, in tandem with the decline in inflation, although monetary policy remains moderately contractionary. The financial system remains sound and resilient to shocks, amid effective financial supervision. Mexico maintains adequate external buffers and an external position in line with fundamentals. A near-term strengthening of the current account—due to weak domestic demand—is expected to unwind going forward, accompanied by a mild deterioration of the trade balance and a gradual decline in remittances Executive Board Assessment Executive Directors highlighted that Mexico's strong fundamentals and track record of very strong policies and policy frameworks have been instrumental to the resilience of the economy in the face of heightened global uncertainty. In light of the deceleration in economic activity and remaining risks, Directors underscored the importance of maintaining sound macroeconomic policies while advancing supply side reforms to bolster potential growth. Directors welcomed the reversal of the 2024 fiscal expansion, and generally encouraged the authorities to consider a more ambitious fiscal consolidation to help prevent further upward drifts in public debt and create fiscal space to respond to future shocks. However, a number of Directors highlighted the need to stabilize debt while preserving growth momentum, which could be achieved through a more gradual fiscal consolidation path. Directors underscored that, given the need to protect social spending and growth enhancing public investment, consolidation efforts should focus on mobilizing tax revenues through improvements in tax administration and tax policy changes. Strengthening the financial health and profitability of state-owned enterprises, especially Pemex, will also be essential. Directors stressed that strengthening the medium-term fiscal framework would enhance the credibility of fiscal plans. Directors commended Banxico for successfully bringing inflation back to the tolerance range. They considered that further monetary easing should follow clear signs that inflation is on a sustained path to the target. Directors concurred that further refinements to Banxico's communication toolkit could be considered to strengthen monetary policy transmission and better anchor inflation expectations, while safeguarding flexibility and maintaining credibility. They agreed that maintaining a flexible exchange rate is critical to absorb shocks, especially in the current external backdrop. Directors highlighted the soundness of the financial system, supported by strong capital and liquidity positions. They encouraged the authorities to continue implementing the recommendations of the 2022 Financial Sector Assessment Program. Directors emphasized that efforts to foster financial inclusion and expand credit should focus on addressing market failures and promoting competition. While acknowledging progress in the AML/CFT framework, Directors stressed the need to further strengthen interagency coordination and risk-based supervision to combat financial crimes and money laundering. Directors underscored that unlocking stronger growth requires addressing long-standing supply-side constraints. This includes closing infrastructure gaps, improving the business climate, strengthening judicial independence, and tackling corruption and crime. Directors stressed the importance of open trade as an engine of growth. They underscored that policy support for strategic sectors should be narrowly targeted to address market failures and avoid introducing barriers to trade and investment. =============== P A R A G U A Y =============== BANCO CONTINENTAL: Fitch Alters Outlook on 'BB+' IDR to Positive ---------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has conducted a portfolio review of Paraguayan banks after Paraguay's sovereign Outlook was revised to Positive from Stable. Following the sovereign action on Oct. 6, Fitch revised the Outlook on its 'bb' assessment of Paraguayan's banking system operating environment (OE) to Positive from Stable. Paraguay's macroeconomic stability and solid growth have supported sustained economic development and are expected to improve Fitch Core Metrics used to assess the OE score. Fitch forecasts GDP growth of 4.8% in 2025. The country's estimated GDP per capita for 2025 is USD 7,440 million, and the Operational Risk Index is 28.6% as of October 2025. Fitch expects the banks will continue to generate consistent business volumes due to positive macroeconomic dynamics. Fitch forecasts steady credit growth for 2025, with lower asset quality pressure than in 2024. This will support banking system profitability and capitalization. Key Rating Drivers Banco Continental S.A.E.C.A. Fitch has affirmed the Long Term (LT) Foreign Currency and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of Banco Continental S.A.E.C.A. (Continental) at BB+ and revised the Outlook to Positive from Stable. Fitch affirmed the Viability Rating (VR) at 'bb+'. The Outlook revision follows a similar action on Paraguay's OE assessment and Paraguay's IDR. An upgrade is likely if the Paraguay's sovereign rating is upgraded, and if the bank continues to improve its financial profile. Improving OE conditions would enhance the banks' credit profiles as their strong market positions are likely to continue supporting their financial performance. Continental's IDRs are supported by its credit profile, as reflected in its VR, which is aligned with its implied VR. The VR reflects the bank's adequate intrinsic credit profile which is underpinned by a strong business profile and prudent risk profile, which together support a stable financial performance. Continental is the largest bank in Paraguay by assets and deposits as of June 2025. Its operating profit to RWA ratio increased to 3.4% at June 30,2025 from 3.3% at Dec. 31, 2024. The bank's impaired loans increased but its asset quality remains satisfactory, with an NPL ratio increasing to 1.2% at 1H25 from 1.0% at YE24. Reasonable loss-absorption capacity is reflected by its loan loss allowances coverage of 175.2% and FCC to RWA ratio of 15.5%. Funding and liquidity remain satisfactory, as customer deposits account for nearly two-thirds of non-equity funding and gross loans to customer deposits are about 124%. Ueno Bank SA Fitch affirmed the LT Foreign Currency IDR and Local Currency IDR of Ueno Bank SA (Ueno) at 'BB' and assigned a Stable Outlook. Fitch also affirmed the Viability Rating (VR) at 'bb'. Ueno's business model is still consolidating after the merger with Vision Banco (Vision). If post-merger consolidation of the business model and risk structure improves the bank's overall financial profile, Fitch could take a positive rating action in the future. Ueno has a 6.3% market share of total assets, 6.9% in deposits, and 4.2% in loans as of March 2025. Ueno's asset quality is sound, with NPLs at 0.6% (impaired loans over gross loans) in June 2025; however, the bank is still absorbing the impact of Vision's overdue loans and has received temporary regulatory waivers. Its operating profit to RWA ratio is sound but reduced to 3.6% at June 30,2025 from 7.3% at Dec. 31, 2024, due to higher credit costs and lower margins. Loss absorption capacity is reasonable, as its FCC to RWA ratio is 14.4% at June 2025 (YE24: 19.3%). Rating Sensitivities Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade VRs and IDRs Continental - The banks' IDRs and VRs would reflect any negative action on Paraguay's sovereign ratings and Country Ceiling or a downgrade of Fitch's assessment of the OE; - Continental's IDRs and VR could be affected by material weakening of the bank's currently strong capital metrics, specifically an FCC ratio sustained below 16%; - A deterioration of the OE that leads to sustained weakening of the bank's asset quality (impaired loans ratio above 3.5%) or a decline in operating profit to risk-weighted assets metric below 1.5% could be negative for creditworthiness; - Loss of the bank's strong competitive position in the local market could pressure the rating. Ueno - A sustained deterioration in Ueno's FCC ratio to a level below 13% or a decline in the bank's operating profit to RWA ratio below 2% could be negative for creditworthiness. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade VRs and IDRs Continental - Given that the IDRs have a Positive Outlook, an upgrade is possible following a sovereign upgrade, together with an improvement in the bank's financial profile. Ueno - A post-merger consolidation of the business model and risk structure that improves the bank's financial profile. OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS Continental The senior unsecured debt rating of 'BB+' is at the same level as the bank's Long-Term IDR because Fitch views the likelihood of default of the senior debt as the same as that of the issuer. Continental Continental's Government Support Rating (GSR) of 'bb' reflects a moderate probability of support because of uncertainties regarding the sovereign's ability or propensity to provide support despite the bank's systemic importance. The ability of the sovereign to provide support is based on Paraguay's Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR (BB+/Positive). Ueno UENO's GSR of 'b+' reflects Fitch's opinion that a default of the bank could result in contagion risks for the rest of the system because it is considered a domestic systemically important bank (D-SIB) by the Central Bank of Paraguay (BCP) and has the largest number of clients within the banking system. However, the GSR also reflects the limited probability of support because of significant uncertainty about the ability or propensity of the government to provide it. OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES Continental - Senior debt ratings would generally move together with the bank's Long-Term IDRs. Continental - Continental's GSR could be upgraded if Paraguay's rating is upgraded. - Continental's GSR would be affected if Fitch negatively changes its assessment of the Paraguayan government's propensity to provide timely support to the bank. Ueno - The GSR could be downgraded if Fitch believes that the government's propensity to support the bank has declined due to a material loss in the market share of customer deposits. VR ADJUSTMENTS Continental The Operating Environment score of 'bb' has been assigned above the 'b' category implied score due to the following adjustment reasons: Sovereign Rating (positive) and Economic Performance (positive). The Business Profile score of 'bb' has been assigned above the 'b' category implied score due to the following adjustment reason: Market Position (positive). Ueno - The Operating Environment score of 'bb' has been assigned above the 'b' category implied score due to the following adjustment reasons: Sovereign Rating (positive) and Economic Performance (positive). - The Business Profile score of 'bb-' has been assigned above the 'b' category implied score due to the following adjustment reasons: Business Model (positive). ESG Considerations Banco Continental S.A.E.C.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance Structure due to low board independence compared to regional peers, which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors. The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. Entity/Debt Rating Prior ----------- ------ ----- Banco Continental S.A.E.C.A. LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+ ST IDR B Affirmed B LC LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+ LC ST IDR B Affirmed B Viability bb+ Affirmed bb+ Government Support bb Affirmed bb senior unsecured LT BB+ Affirmed BB+ Ueno Bank SA LT IDR BB Affirmed BB ST IDR B Affirmed B LC LT IDR BB Affirmed BB LC ST IDR B Affirmed B Viability bb Affirmed bb Government Support b+ Affirmed b+ ********* S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman, Editors. Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746. 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