250918.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Thursday, September 18, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 187
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
ARGENTINA: IMF Offers Milei Backing, Hails Inflation Progress
ARGENTINA: Inflation Undershot Forecast Before Buenos Aires Vote
B A H A M A S
SPIRIT AIRLINES: Gets Court OK to Tap Over $275MM to Fund Ch. 11
B R A Z I L
BANCO DE BRASILIA: Fitch Alters Outlook on 'B-' IDR to Negative
M E X I C O
BRASKEM IDESA: Fitch Lowers Local & Foreign Currency IDRs to 'CCC+'
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Plans Mass Retrenchment in Public Sector
- - - - -
=================
A R G E N T I N A
=================
ARGENTINA: IMF Offers Milei Backing, Hails Inflation Progress
-------------------------------------------------------------
AFP News reports that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) offered
timely backing to President Javier Milei, highlighting Argentina's
economic "progress" and urging the government to stay the course.
"We recognise the significant progress made in reducing inflation,
which has resulted in monthly price increases of under two percent
for the fourth consecutive month," said IMF Spokesperson Julie
Kozack at a press conference in Washington DC, according to AFP
News.
Speaking days after the ruling party suffered a stinging defeat in
key regional elections in Buenos Aires Province, Kozack hailed the
Milei administration's progress on inflation and fiscal surplus
figures, the report relays.
However, she warned of "interest rate volatility" and the "negative
effects" it could have on economic activity, the report notes.
Inflation remained at 1.9 percent in August, the report discloses.
Over the first eight months of the year, the government's consumer
price index reached 19.5 percent – a sharp decline from the 94.8
percent recorded in the same period of 2024, the report relays.
AFP Notes that Argentina has recorded a primary fiscal surplus
(before interest payments on debt), an effort the IMF "welcomes,"
noted Kozack, adding that it "aligns with the objectives of the
ongoing program."
In April, the Milei administration reached an agreement with the
IMF over a new four-year loan worth US$20 billion, of which it has
already received US$14 billion, the report relays.
Argentina also has a US$44-billion program with the Fund dating
back to 2018, agreed by the former president Mauricio Macri's
government, the report discloses.
Kozack said the IMF has no specific concerns regarding the Milei
government's intervention in the foreign exchange market, a move
aimed at halting the depreciation of the peso against the US
dollar, the report says.
"Our team was informed of these interventions by the Argentine
Treasury. The authorities clarified that it was a temporary measure
in response to high market volatility," she explained, the report
relays.
"In our conversations with the authorities, we have continued to
stress the importance of a transparent, consistent and predictable
monetary and exchange rate framework to help manage market
volatility," added Kozack, the report discloses.
The peso has been under pressure for several weeks amid
pre-election jitters in the financial markets, the report says.
Tensions intensified following an alleged corruption scandal
involving the president's sister, Karina Milei, who also serves as
the head of state's chief-of-staff, the report relates
Milei's party, La Libertad Avanza, suffered a clear setback in
legislative elections in the Buenos Aires Province, a key
battleground ahead of the October midterm elections, which will see
parts of Congress renewed, the report notes.
Following the vote, the President reaffirmed his commitment to
implementing his economic plan, reiterating as priorities a
"balanced budget," a "tight monetary market" and the peso's managed
float against the US dollar as agreed with the IMF, the report
relates.
AFP discloses that Kozack said that the Fund "encourages the
authorities to continue their efforts, to keep rebuilding foreign
exchange reserves and to strengthen confidence in the peso."
The spokesperson confirmed that Economy Minister Luis Caputo spoke
by phone with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, the
report notes.
Nonetheless, the multilateral lender is not expecting Caputo to
visit Washington until next month for the IMF's annual meeting, the
report discloses.
"The IMF staff remains closely engaged with the Argentine
authorities in implementing their programme," which "aims to
durably entrench stability and strengthen Argentina's growth
prospects," Kozack said during the briefing, the report relays.
"We look forward to the 2026 budget to continue this progress and
also to lay the groundwork for necessary fiscal reforms and to
consolidate the achievements needed to make this happen," she
added.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a
30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina
in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion,
or 1000 percent of quota) -- with an approved immediate
disbursement of an equivalent of US$9.65 billion. Argentina's
IMF-supported program sought to improve public finances and start
to reduce persistent high inflation through a multi-pronged
strategy.
On April 11, 2025, the IMF further approved a 48-month Extended
Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling US$20
billion (or 479 percent of quota), with an immediate disbursement
of US$12 billion, and a first review planned for June 2025 with an
associated disbursement of about US$2 billion. The program is
expected to help catalyze additional official multilateral and
bilateral support, and a timely re-access to international capital
markets.
Fitch Ratings, on May 12, 2025, upgraded Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency and Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to
'CCC+' from 'CCC'. The upgrade reflects the launch of a new IMF
program, among other things. S&P Global Ratings, in February 2025
lowered its local currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to
'SD/SD' from 'CCC/C' and its national scale rating to 'SD' from
'raB+'. Moody's Ratings, in January 2025, raised Argentina's local
currency ceiling to B3 from Caa1 and the foreign currency ceiling
to Caa1 from Caa3. DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC in
November 2024.
ARGENTINA: Inflation Undershot Forecast Before Buenos Aires Vote
----------------------------------------------------------------
Manuela Tobias at Bloomberg News reports that Argentina's monthly
inflation climbed less than expected as a crucial vote in Buenos
Aires Province had stirred up currency volatility.
Consumer prices rose 1.9 percent in August from July, just below
the two percent median estimate of economists surveyed by
Bloomberg, matching July's print, according to Bloomberg News.
Annual inflation slowed to 33.6 percent, according to government
data published, Bloomberg News relays.
Volatility last month before the vote, which the libertarian's
party lost to his leftist Peronist rivals by nearly 14 percentage
points, led the government to eventually intervene in Argentina's
currency market, Bloomberg News notes.
Congress also overturned some of Milei's vetoes on spending bills
in August, reflecting his dwindling support in the legislature,
Bloomberg News discloses.
Bloomberg News discloses that after the voting, the currency
weakened further, nearing the upper limit of a range where the peso
freely floats as part of a US$20-billion agreement with the
International Monetary Fund.
Milei still has six weeks before much bigger midterm elections on
October 26, when Argentines will renew nearly half the seats in
Congress.
To prevent currency volatility in August, Argentina's monetary
authority tightened policy restrictions for banks, including the
percentage of deposits they need to park at the Central Bank and
validated record-high interest rates in multiple Treasury auctions,
Bloomberg News relays.
Argentina is expected to finish the year with 28 percent annual
inflation this year, according to an August Central Bank survey of
economists. Growth is expected at 4.4 percent, Bloomberg News
adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a
30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina
in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion,
or 1000 percent of quota) -- with an approved immediate
disbursement of an equivalent of US$9.65 billion. Argentina's
IMF-supported program sought to improve public finances and start
to reduce persistent high inflation through a multi-pronged
strategy.
On April 11, 2025, the IMF further approved a 48-month Extended
Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling US$20
billion (or 479 percent of quota), with an immediate disbursement
of US$12 billion, and a first review planned for June 2025 with an
associated disbursement of about US$2 billion. The program is
expected to help catalyze additional official multilateral and
bilateral support, and a timely re-access to international capital
markets.
Fitch Ratings, on May 12, 2025, upgraded Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency and Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to
'CCC+' from 'CCC'. The upgrade reflects the launch of a new IMF
program, among other things. S&P Global Ratings, in February 2025
lowered its local currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to
'SD/SD' from 'CCC/C' and its national scale rating to 'SD' from
'raB+'. Moody's Ratings, in January 2025, raised Argentina's local
currency ceiling to B3 from Caa1 and the foreign currency ceiling
to Caa1 from Caa3. DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC in
November 2024.
=============
B A H A M A S
=============
SPIRIT AIRLINES: Gets Court OK to Tap Over $275MM to Fund Ch. 11
----------------------------------------------------------------
Alex Wittenberg of Bloomberg Law reports that Spirit Airlines won
approval from a New York bankruptcy judge on September 8, 2025, to
borrow up to $275 million and tap additional funds to sustain
operations as it prepares to reject aircraft leases in its Chapter
11 case.
About Spirit Airlines
Spirit Airlines, Inc. (SAVE) is a low-fare carrier committed to
delivering the best value in the sky by offering an enhanced travel
experience with flexible, affordable options. Spirit serves
destinations throughout the United States, Latin America and the
Caribbean with its Fit Fleet, one of the youngest and most
fuel-efficient fleets in the U.S. On the Web:
http://wwww.spirit.com/
Spirit Airlines and its affiliates sought Chapter 11 protection
(Bankr. S.D.N.Y. Case No. 24-11988) on Nov. 18, 2024, after
reaching terms of a pre-arranged plan with bondholders.
At the time of the filing, Spirit Airlines reported $1 billion to
$10 billion in both assets and liabilities. Judge Sean H. Lane
oversees the case.
The Debtors tapped Davis Polk & Wardwell, LLP as legal counsel;
Alvarez & Marsal North America, LLC, as financial advisor; and
Perella Weinberg Partners LP as investment banker. Epiq Corporate
Restructuring, LLC, is the claims agent.
Paul Hastings, LLP and Ducera Partners, LLC serve as legal counsel
for the Ad Hoc Group of Convertible Noteholders.
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, LLP and Evercore Group LLC
represent the Ad Hoc Group of Senior Secured Noteholders.
The official committee of unsecured creditors retained Willkie Farr
& Gallagher LLP as counsel.
Citigroup Global Markets, Inc., is serving as financial advisor and
Latham & Watkins LLP is serving as legal counsel to Frontier.
2nd Attempt
Spirit Airlines and its affiliates sought Chapter 11 protection
(Bankr. S.D.N.Y. Case No. 25-11896) on August 29, 2025. In its
petition, the Debtors reports estimated assets and liabilities
between $1 billion and $10 billion each.
Honorable Bankruptcy Judge Sean H. Lane handles the case.
The Debtor is represented by Marshall Scott Huebner, Esq. and
Darren S. Klein, Esq. at Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP.
===========
B R A Z I L
===========
BANCO DE BRASILIA: Fitch Alters Outlook on 'B-' IDR to Negative
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised the Rating Watch on BRB - Banco de
Brasília S.A.'s (BRB) and Banco Master S.A.'s (Master) ratings to
Negative (RWN) from Evolving (RWE). This action follows the
Brazilian Central Bank's (BCB) denial of authorization for a
proposed transaction between the institutions.
Fitch has downgraded Master's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency
Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'B-' from 'B+', its Viability
Rating (VR) to 'b-' from 'b+', and its National Long-Term Rating
(Brazil) to 'BB-(bra)' from 'A-(bra)'. In addition, Fitch has
affirmed the Government Support Rating (GSR) at 'no support' (ns)
and removed it from RWE.
These rating actions are consistent with Fitch's negative rating
sensitivity considerations published in April 2025, which envisaged
regulatory non-approval of the transaction and the potential for
additional pressure on liquidity, as well as funding access to
Master and capital to BRB.
Announced in March 2025, a proposed acquisition envisaged BRB
acquiring 49% of Master's common shares and 100% of its preferred
shares, representing 58% of total capital. The proposed combination
included corporate and operational integration that, if approved,
could have enhanced scale and scope, diversified revenues and
funding, generated operating synergies and potentially strengthened
the combined entity's capital and liquidity. Following BCB's
rejection of the acquisition, these prospective benefits are no
longer incorporated, and the ratings revert to each entity's
standalone fundamentals. Fitch will reassess the analysis of the
transaction if the authorities reconsider the decision under
materially revised terms.
Key Rating Drivers
BRB's Ratings Driven by Shareholder Support: BRB's IDRs and
National Ratings remain support-driven, reflecting Fitch's
assessment of the capacity and propensity of its controlling
shareholder, the Federal District Government (GDF), to provide
timely support if required. The VR is maintained at 'b-', mirroring
the bank's intrinsic credit profile. With the transaction rejected,
integration-related uncertainties have receded; however, structural
capitalization challenges persist over the planning horizon,
alongside indications of delayed equity reinforcement, which keep
core regulatory capital buffers modest relative to the bank's
growth ambitions.
The RWN reflects the possibility of further action if tangible and
timely capital reinforcement does not materialize, or if pressures
emerge on asset quality and profitability. As a support-driven
case, the ratings also remain sensitive to changes in the GDF's
capacity and propensity to provide support, including developments
in the GDF's own credit profile and any institutional or budgetary
constraints that could affect the timeliness of such support.
The revision of the Business Profile Outlook to Negative reflects
uncertainties about achieving scale gains without the consummation
of the transaction with Master.
Master's Ratings Driven by VR: The downgrades reflect the removal
of the expected benefits of the proposed combination with BRB.
Without the transaction, Master's ratings fully reflect its
standalone earnings capacity and access to funding in a tougher
environment, with greater uncertainty over funding stability and
cost, potential tenor shortening and tighter rollover conditions.
Lacking scale and synergy gains reduces flexibility to sustain the
previously envisaged pace of growth, heightening vulnerability to
liquidity shocks.
The RWN captures the risk of additional near-term pressures, as
Fitch monitors the trajectory of liquidity metrics, market access
and execution against the business plan, consistent with negative
sensitivity considerations related to regulatory non-approval and
potential deterioration in funding conditions.
Changes to the Business Profile and Financial Profile scores
reflect heightened uncertainty captured under Future Developments
and Metrics following the non-completion of the proposed
transaction with BRB. In addition, the revisions to the Funding &
Liquidity and Risk Profile scores are driven by the liability
structure — namely, a higher share of interest rate-sensitive
deposits, recent changes to leverage rules for the Fundo Garantidor
de Crédito (Deposit Guarantee Fund) guaranteed instruments,
greater reliance on broker-distributed funding and time deposits,
and ongoing challenges in matching asset and liability tenors given
current funding options. Together, these forward-looking
considerations justify the recalibration of the scores to reflect
the standalone risk profile without the combination of the banks.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
BRB:
Negative actions could occur if capitalization remains weak
relative to growth appetite, if asset quality or liquidity
deteriorate, or if the support assessment weakens due to reduced
capacity and/or propensity of the GDF to provide timely support,
including signs of further delays in equity reinforcement.
Banco Master:
Further negative actions could occur if liquidity weakens,
evidenced by a greater reliance on confidence-sensitive funding,
shorter tenors or higher funding costs, if capital, asset quality
or profitability metrics deteriorate materially, or if business
plan execution proves inconsistent with prevailing market
conditions.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
BRB:
The RWN could be resolved if there is evidence of capital
strengthening — via organic generation and/or external capital
measures — together with maintenance of asset quality and
profitability consistent with adequate regulatory buffers, and
reaffirmation of the GDF's capacity and timeliness of support.
Banco Master:
The RWN could be resolved, with ratings stabilized, if there is a
sustainable strengthening of liquidity and funding access aligned
with the duration of assets, potential shareholder support that
bolsters capital and liquidity, and consistent execution of the
business plan, resulting in a more robust and stable financial
profile.
VR ADJUSTMENTS
BRB:
The Viability Rating has been assigned below the implied Viability
Rating due to the following adjustment reason(s): Weakest Link -
Capitalization & Leverage (negative).
The Business Profile score has been assigned below the implied
score due to the following adjustment reason(s): Management and
Governance (negative).
The Earnings & Profitability score has been assigned below the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason(s): Historical
and Future Metrics (negative).
Banco Master:
The Viability Rating has been assigned below the implied Viability
Rating due to the following adjustment reason(s): Weakest Link -
Funding & Liquidity (negative).
The Business Profile score has been assigned below the implied
score due to the following adjustment reason(s): Historical and
Future Developments (negative).
The Asset Quality score has been assigned below the implied score
due to the following adjustment reason(s): Historical and Future
Metrics (negative).
The Earnings & Profitability score has been assigned below the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason(s): Historical
and Future Metrics (negative).
The Funding & Liquidity score has been assigned below the implied
score due to the following adjustment reason(s): Deposit Structure
(negative), Historical and Future Metrics (negative).
Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings
BRB's SSR and National Ratings are driven by a credit assessment of
the federal district government
ESG Considerations
BRB - Banco de Brasilia SA has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Financial Transparency due to delays in the presentation of audited
financial statements, raising concerns about governance, which has
a negative impact on the credit profile and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
BRB - Banco
de Brasilia
S.A. LT IDR B- Rating Watch Revision B-
ST IDR B Rating Watch Revision B
LC LT IDR B- Rating Watch Revision B-
LC ST IDR B Rating Watch Revision B
Natl LT BBB+(bra)Rating Watch Revision BBB+(bra)
Natl ST F2(bra) Rating Watch Revision F2(bra)
Viability b- Rating Watch Revision b-
Shareholder Support b- Rating Watch Revision b-
Banco
Master S.A. LT IDR B- Downgrade B+
ST IDR B Rating Watch Revision B
LC LT IDR B- Downgrade B+
LC ST IDR B Rating Watch Revision B
Natl LT BB-(bra) Downgrade A-(bra)
Natl ST B(bra) Downgrade F2(bra)
Viability b- Downgrade b+
Government Support ns Affirmed ns
===========
M E X I C O
===========
BRASKEM IDESA: Fitch Lowers Local & Foreign Currency IDRs to 'CCC+'
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Local Currency and Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of Braskem Idesa SAPI to
'CCC+' from 'B+'. Fitch also downgraded Braskem Idesa's senior
secured bonds to 'CCC+' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4' from
'B+'/'RR4'.
The downgrades reflect substantial credit risk for Braskem Idesa in
making timely payment of interest on its obligations following the
announcement that it had hired Lazard Inc., Cleary Gottlieb Steen &
Hamilton, and Sainz Abogados to evaluate financial alternatives for
its strained liquidity and capital structure. This action
underscores the company's stressed financial situation and
underlines the possibilities default or debt restructuring in the
near-to-medium term.
Key Rating Drivers
Heightened Debt Restructuring Risk: Braskem Idesa must retain
access to bank or capital markets funding to avoid a restructuring
due to downward pressure on petrochemical spreads that is unlikely
to ease in the near term. Fitch believes the company's engagement
of Lazard and other financial and legal advisors, firms frequently
involved in past restructurings, may signal an imminent
restructuring or other debt actions that could be detrimental to
bondholders.
High Leverage: Fitch expects polyethylene (PE) prices to remain
lower than Fitch previously expected throughout 2025 and into 2026.
This will cause Braskem Idesa's net leverage to remain elevated and
commensurate with the 'CCC' rating category, exceeding 15x in 2025.
Cost efficiencies and favorable ethane prices have been
insufficient to offset compressed spreads in 2025. Fitch expects a
delayed and muted recovery.
Acute Liquidity Strain: The combination of price pressures and
hindered production due to major maintenance and feedstock
constraints has had a material effect on liquidity. As of June 30,
2025, Braskem Idesa had USD 100 million cash on hand, but Fitch
estimates that its cash balance was significantly lower by the end
of August. Despite proactive measures like debt refinancing in
2029, immediate cash needs are at risk of being unmet without
further access to debt or capital injections.
Spreads Remain Under Pressure: PE prices remained weak in the first
half of 2025, and spreads have been low. Fitch expected a U-shaped
recovery in 2025 rather than the V-shape expected for 2024, but
even that has been slow to materialize. Prolonged price pressure
through the first half of 2025 indicated that these lower prices
might now be the new mid-cycle prices, although some curtailments
in capacity sector-wide could support a modest price recovery.
Standalone Rating Approach: Fitch assesses Braskem Idesa's ratings
and those of its majority shareholder Braskem S.A., with a 75%
equity interest, independently. Braskem S.A. lacks a strong legal
incentive to support Braskem Idesa, as there are no parent
guarantees or cross-default provisions on Braskem Idesa's debt. In
addition, Braskem Idesa's financial contribution in the form of
dividends to the parent has been low, and operational synergies
between the companies are weak.
Peer Analysis
Fitch's calculation of Braskem Idesa's expected net leverage for
year-end (YE) 2025 was above that of its peers at 22.4x, compared
with Braskem S.A. (BB-/Rating Watch Negative) at 12.0x, Orbia
Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. (BBB/Stable) at 3.0x, Cydsa,
S.A.B. de C.V. (BB+/Stable) at 2.3x, and Alpek, S.A.B. de C.V.
(BBB-/Negative) at 3.1x. Historically, Braskem Idesa benefited from
access to a competitive cost feedstock, with its EBITDA margin well
positioned relative to other PE producers, such as Braskem S.A.,
and more diversified participants, such as Dow, in terms of
operating margins. Braskem Idesa has higher exposure to supply and
contract risks than its peers. The company also has a weaker
position in terms of exposure to a single asset and product.
Key Assumptions
- Pemex provides 20kbpd in 2025, 20kbpd in 2025 and 2026 and 15kbpd
thereafter;
- Operating rates of 72% in 2025, 81% in 2025 and 95% in 2026
onwards;
- Braskem Idesa PE prices of USD1,116/ton in 2025 and USD1,126/ton
in 2026;
- Average ethane purchase costs of USD325/ton in 2025 and
USD314/ton in 2026;
- Braskem Idesa PE-ethane spreads of USD781/ton in 2025 and
USD812/ton in 2026;
- Braskem Idesa earns an 10% service margin over the industry
reference PE price;
- The ethane import terminal begins operations in 3Q 2025 and
operates at a rate of 45kbpd, lowering cost to USD190/ton;
- MXN/USD exchange rates of 19.95 in 2025 and 20.27 in 2026.
Recovery Analysis
The recovery analysis for Braskem Idesa assumes a liquidation
approach to valuation.
Liquidation Approach Inputs:
- MXN1,700 million of inventory valued at 50%;
- MXN29,400 million of PP&E valued at 50%;
- Total liquidation value USD31,240 million;
- A 10% administrative claim.
With these assumptions, Fitch's waterfall generated recovery
computation (WGRC) for the senior secured notes is in the 'RR3'
band. However, according to Fitch's Country-Specific Treatment of
Recovery Ratings Criteria, the Recovery Rating for corporate
issuers in Mexico is capped at 'RR4'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:
- A Fitch-defined default process has commenced;
- Announcement of a Distress Debt Exchange (DDE) or any type of
debt restructuring;
- Further deterioration of operational and financial indicators.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:
Fitch does not anticipate an upgrade in the near term due to the
company's elevated leverage;
- Medium-term, positive actions are possible if net debt/EBITDA are
sustained below 4.5x;
- EBITDA/ Interest coverage above 3.0x;
- Positive (CFO-Capex)/Debt ratio;
- Securing funding to stabilize liquidity.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Braskem Idesa reported cash of USD100 million and total debt of
USD2.2 billion as of June 30, 2025. Fitch estimates the company had
USD60 million of cash available as of end of August 2025. The
majority of the company's debt consists of a USD900 million bond
due 2029 and a USD 1.2 billion bond due 2032, evidencing a
favorable debt maturity schedule. In April 2025, Braskem Idesa
refinanced its US$95 million term loan, extending the bullet
amortization to 2029.
Issuer Profile
Braskem Idesa, S.A.P.I. is a polyethylene producer with operations
in the city of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Its annual production is 1.05
million tons of high- and low-density polyethylene. It began
operations in early 2016.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
Braskem Idesa SAPI has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance
Structure due shareholder concentration, which has a negative
impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the ratings in
conjunction with other factors.
Braskem Idesa SAPI has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Financial
Transparency due to lack of footnotes and adequate disclosures,
which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant
to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Braskem Idesa SAPI LT IDR CCC+ Downgrade B+
LC LT IDR CCC+ Downgrade B+
senior secured LT CCC+ Downgrade RR4 B+
=====================================
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
=====================================
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Plans Mass Retrenchment in Public Sector
-----------------------------------------------------------
Ria Taitt at Trinidad Express reports that Trinidad & Tobago
government plans to give public sector workers the promised 10%
salary increase but will retrench half of them.
So claimed former finance minister Colm Imbert as he addressed a
People's National Movement (PNM) meeting at the Diego Martin North
Community Centre, according to Trinidad Express.
Imbert said it was obvious the Government was struggling, the
report relays.
"Every day we get a new story about somebody who didn't get their
salary, or who didn't get their benefits," he said. "Every day we
have a new story about salaries being paid late, salaries not being
paid at all, deductions not being made, standing orders not being
processed, people not getting their allowances, and of course,
thousands of people being retrenched, bills are not being paid,
suppliers are not being paid, because the Government is
struggling," he added.
He said one of the reasons the Government was struggling was
because they made too many foolish promises they could never keep,
the report says.
The United National Congress (UNC) promised the Public Services
Association a 10% increase in salary for public servants for the
period 2014 to 2019, a six-year period, the report notes.
He said while a number of public sector unions settled for the 4%
offer from the last PNM government, once this UNC Government gives
the PSA 10% for the same period, they will have to give all of
those other workers—"police, prisons, fire, Defence Force,
teachers—(the same) 10% increase, the report discloses.
Otherwise they'll take them to court and they will win."
He said if the Government gives the PSA 10% for the period and has
to give everybody else the same benefit, "the backpay would be,
when you add the 5% for the next period, 2020 to 2022, $28 billion.
You hear the number? $28 billion," Imbert said, the report relays.
"And the Government's wage bill will increase by three and a half
billion dollars a year. Now, they just don't have the money to do
that. Oil production is going down, gas production is going down,
they kill the Dragon deal, petrochemical prices are low . . . They
are already struggling to meet existing commitments. How are they
going to fund $28 billion in backpay and $3.5 billion in additional
recurrent expenditure every year? They can't. And that is why you
saw that story in the papers recently about devaluation. It's
called floating a balloon," he said, the report relays.
"But they didn't expect the backlash (over any proposed
devaluation) they would get. Everybody started to cuss them,
including their own people," he added.
He said this forced Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo to state
there would be no devaluation, the report discloses.
The report notes that Imbert said with devaluation off the table,
the Government's "next plan is to send home a setta public
servants".
Noting there would be "bacchanal" if the Government did not give
the expected 10% wage increase, the Government, he said, would do
what was done in another Caribbean country: "You give your public
servants a big increase—and then you retrench half of them. So
that is the next thing that is going to happen in this country," he
said, the report relays.
Imbert said another problem the Government faces is that "novice
ministers" are making demands on the Minister of Finance, the
report says. "They want the sun, the moon and the stars. They want
everything. And when you add up what they're asking for, the
expenditure for next year will be $15 billion more than the money
the country expects to earn, the report discloses.
"And that is without that $28 billion (in backpay) and without that
$3 billion extra in public service salaries," he said, adding that
the only way to get that extra $15 billion would be to borrow, the
report says.
Emerging Corruption
Imbert also said there was "emerging corruption" in this
four-month-old Government, the report notes.
He said a document from within the North Central Regional Health
Authority (NCRHA) came into his mailbox, the report says.
Reading from the document, he said at a meeting held on August 25,
2025, an instruction was given by the chairman of the board to the
manager of public procurement that any procurement activity over
the value of $75,000 - "that means all (procurement activity)" -
must first pass through him for his approval of small-scale,
simplified procurement, the report relays.
The report discloses said Imbert: "I am unable to follow this
instruction, as this is a direct violation of the proclaimed
Procurement Act. And this person and other people go on to make the
point that this is deduced by the Office of the Procurement
Regulator as collusion, and make the point that in 2017, the
Ministry of Finance stated the responsibility for procurement lies
with the chief executive officer or other designated official of
the organisation."
Imbert said the official (2017) letter from the Ministry of Finance
to all State enterprises and statutory authorities states that
there should be no involvement of the board of directors in
approving contracts, except for approving the policy on
procurement, the report notes.
But, Imbert said, the chairman of the NCRHA was saying in writing
that all contracts of this type were to pass through him for his
approval, the report discloses.
We Made Stupid Mistakes
Imbert said the PNM lost elections because of a lack of
communication with its base and with the general public, the report
relays.
He said the party made the mistake of calling three snap elections
and lost every time; he said he hoped the "next prime minister"
(Pennelope Beckles who was seated in the audience) was listening,
the report discloses.
Referencing former US vice-president Kamala Harris's recent book,
Imbert drew parallels between what happened in the last US election
and the T&T election, the report relays.
The report notes that he said Harris made the point that the choice
of whether Biden stayed on as the nominee or not was left to
"individual ego and individual ambition" and that it should have
been "more than a personal decision".
"Kamala Harris came in at the last minute; she couldn't break away
from Joe Biden. Joe Biden was already very unpopular . . .(The
media) asked her, what would you do differently to what Joe Biden
did? And she foolishly said: ‘I can't think of anything'. Well,
she'll lose . . . And we have parallels like that in the PNM. And
the parallel I am drawing is the absence of democratic decision
making. . . If you properly analyse why we lost that election, we
made stupid mistakes¬—in 1995, in 2010, and in 2025. Stupid
mistakes. We did not connect with the people and make decisions
based on consensus coming from our base and from the general
population. That's our weakness as a party . . .We don't listen.
Stick break in our ears. I ain't ashamed to say that."
He said once Beckles listened to the people, the PNM "was bound to
win" the next election, the report adds.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.
Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746.
This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.
Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.
The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year,
delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for members
of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
.
* * * End of Transmission * * *