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250606.mbx T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R L A T I N A M E R I C A Friday, June 6, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 113 Headlines B R A Z I L BRAZIL: Moody's Affirms Ba1 Issuer Rating, Alters Outlook to Stable C A Y M A N I S L A N D S GFH FINANCIAL: Fitch Affirms 'B' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable C H I L E AGROSUPER SA: Moody's Affirms Ba1 CFR & Alters Outlook to Positive D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C [] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Tourism Fuels Over 40% of Economic Growth G U A T E M A L A BANCO INDUSTRIAL: S&P Upgrades LT ICR to 'BB+', Outlook Stable J A M A I C A JAMAICA: BOJ Warns US Debt Time Bomb Outweighs Trade War Risks JAMAICA: CDB Study Urges Policy Reform to Tackle Market Inequities JAMAICA: Money Lost to Fraud Jumped to $1.73BB in 2023 M E X I C O BANCO COMPARTAMOS: S&P Affirms 'BB+/B' ICRs, Outlook Stable P E R U TELEFONICA DEL PERU: Fitch Cuts IDR to 'D' & Then Withdraws Rating T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Shift in US Policy Could Impact T&T LNG Trade TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: SMEs Hopeful as New Government Settles In X X X X X X X X LATAM: CARICOM Members Urged to Up Chicken Products Production [] LATAM: IDB and WTTC Join Forces to Strengthen Tourism - - - - - =========== B R A Z I L =========== BRAZIL: Moody's Affirms Ba1 Issuer Rating, Alters Outlook to Stable ------------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Ratings has changed the outlook on the Government of Brazil's to stable from positive and affirmed long-term local and foreign currency issuer rating and senior unsecured bond ratings at Ba1, the senior unsecured shelf rating was also affirmed at (P)Ba1. The change in outlook to stable reflects a tapering of upside credit risks in light of a pronounced deterioration in debt affordability and slower-than-expected progress in addressing spending rigidity and building credibility around fiscal policy, despite adherence to primary balance targets. The government's ability to materially reduce fiscal vulnerabilities and stabilize debt burden in the short run remains constrained by spending rigidity and rising borrowing costs. These challenges offset upside investment and GDP growth potential and continued economic reforms that are broadly supportive of Brazil's credit quality. At Ba1, Moody's now assess the credit risks to be balanced. The affirmation of Brazil's Ba1 rating reflects sustained solid growth of the country's large and diversified economy, a demonstrated track record of reform implementation over successive administrations, and limited vulnerability to external shocks given a strong external position. These credit strengths are balanced against elevated and rising debt burden, high interest payments, and a rigid spending structure that limits the government's ability to respond to shocks. Brazil's country ceilings remain unchanged. The local-currency country ceiling is positioned four notches above the sovereign rating at A3, reflecting external stability, moderate political risk, against the government's relatively large footprint in the economy. The foreign-currency country ceiling is Baa1, one-notch below the local-currency country ceiling reflects large foreign exchange reserves, which reduces the risk of restrictions on transfer and convertibility in times of stress, and open capital account, balanced against exchange-rate volatility and some restrictions on short-term capital flows. RATINGS RATIONALE RATIONALE FOR THE STABLE OUTLOOK FISCAL CONSOLIDATION EFFORTS UNDERWAY, BUT POLICY CREDIBILITY GAP, WEAK AFFORDABILITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER DEBT LEVEL Over the past three years, Brazil's real GDP growth has remained strong around 3%, and the government has met its primary deficit targets as expected. However, a material increase in inflation and inflation expectations in the context of strong economic activity led the central bank to resume forceful monetary policy tightening. As the government debt structure is very sensitive to interest rate movement, interest payments will increase materially and lead to larger overall fiscal deficits and debt accumulation in 2025-26 than Moody's previously expected. Market concerns over the direction of fiscal policy have also contributed to the rise in inflation expectations and risk premium on government debt. Because of reliance on variable-rate and inflation-linked debt, Brazil's fiscal profile is highly susceptible to interest rate movements, while shortcomings in monetary policy channels of transmission result in large and rapid shifts in the interest rate environment, weaking the impact of fiscal consolidation efforts during tightening cycles. Although the fiscal policy stance has not changed, Moody's now expect Brazil's debt burden to stabilize around 88% of GDP in the next 5 years, up from 82% in October 2024, mostly driven by larger-than-expected interest payments. Moody's estimates that the interest-to-revenue ratio will peak in 2025 close to 21%, up from around 15% in 2023. While Moody's expects the government to achieve a primary balance, spending rigidity and rising interest payments limit the prospects of additional expenditure cuts to compensate for the impact of rising borrowing costs on the debt burden. Although successive governments took steps to improve fiscal management, revenue earmarking, a large share of mandatory spending, and susceptibility to interest rate movements constrain the scope for adjustments. The current administration introduced revenue measures to meet primary deficit targets and a cap on increasing minimum wage, in line with the fiscal framework, which will contribute to reducing mandatory spending overtime. However, deeper reforms, such as reducing revenue earmarking and de-linking social benefits from the minimum wage, would be needed to alleviate much of Brazil's spending rigidity and increase the government's ability to respond to shocks. Such structural spending reforms would also help lower inflation expectations and interest rates more broadly. Building consensus around the design and implementation of deeper spending reforms would involve the government, Congress, and the public more broadly, which will likely take time. Furthermore, the government aims to rebalance its debt structure towards fixed-rate instruments and extend debt maturity in the coming years. The strategy involves increasing the share of fixed-rate and inflation-linked instruments, extending debt maturity, smoothing the maturity profile, and maintaining liquidity buffers to manage short-term shocks effectively. Such changes to the debt profile will likely be gradual. As such Moody's are not expecting significant change in the short run. RATIONAL FOR RATING AFFIRMATION The affirmation of the Ba1 ratings reflect Brazil's large economic size and diversification, and limited vulnerability to external shocks given its domestic-driven economy and strong external position. Brazil's economy has displayed more robust growth in recent years partly a result of structural reforms implemented over successive administrations and a growing track record of economic and fiscal reforms that lend resilience to the credit profile. The affirmation also reflects Moody's views that ongoing fiscal consolidation efforts, although gradual, will stabilize debt burden in the medium term. However, limited progress on deeper structural reforms to address spending rigidity and the high sensitivity of fiscal outcomes to interest rate movements constrain upward rating momentum in the short term. Brazil has the potential to sustain higher GDP growth by attracting investment in renewable energy production and energy-intensive sectors and is relatively less impacted by global policy uncertainty, mitigating the risks related to elevated debt burden and borrowing costs. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS Brazil's Credit Impact Score (CIS-3) reflects exposure to environmental and social risks, and moderately strong institutions. Social and environmental risks are driven by high income inequality and exposure to carbon transition risk. Brazil's exposure to environmental risks (E-3 issuer profile score) reflects carbon-transition risk, impacting its oil sector, and risks related to waste and pollution, water management and the depletion of natural capital. However, those risks are mitigated by Brazil's significant endowment of natural capital and its continental landmass, where any given climate shock impacts only part of the country. Exposure to social risks (S-3 issuer profile score) reflects high income inequality and some deficiency in the provision of basic services, notwithstanding a large social safety net. Future social pressure may arise if employment and wage growth were to persistently weaken, leading to deterioration in living standards. The influence of governance on Brazil's credit profile (G-2 issuer profile score) reflects the effectiveness of economic, political, and judicial institutions in enacting difficult reforms across multiple administrations and strong monetary policy framework set against Moody's assessments of the impact of relatively weak governance indicators related to corruption and rule of law. GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 21,120 (2023) (also known as Per Capita Income) Real GDP growth (% change): 3.2% (2023) (also known as GDP Growth) Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 4.6% (2023) Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -7.6% (2023) (also known as Fiscal Balance) Current Account Balance/GDP: -1.3% (2023) (also known as External Balance) External debt/GDP: 33.4% (2023) Economic resiliency: baa1 Default history: At least one default event (on bonds and/or loans) has been recorded since 1983. On May 27, 2025, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Brazil, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer's institutions and governance strength, have not materially changed. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially decreased. The issuer's susceptibility to event risks has not materially changed. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS Brazil's sovereign rating could be upgraded if a broad consensus among policy makers and Congress emerges to advance deeper spending reforms. For example, measures that would reduce earmarking of revenues, indexation of social benefits to the minimum wage, or reform to social security benefits would create fiscal space and improve the credit profile. More broadly, macroeconomic reforms that improve the monetary policy framework, leading to a more effective transmission of monetary policy would also contribute to reducing the vulnerability of Brazil's fiscal position to cycles of monetary policy tightening. The rating could face downward pressure if fiscal consolidation efforts were reversed or less effective than Moody's currently assumes, further weakening investor confidence and resulting in persistently weaker debt affordability and debt metrics. Signs of materially weaker growth would also weigh on Brazil's credit profile and could prompt a negative rating action. The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereigns published in November 2022. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable. Brazil' long-term issuer rating is Ba1, one notch below the final scorecard-indicated outcome of Baa1-Baa3. This reflects uncertainty around the government's debt trajectory in the context of high borrowing costs. =========================== C A Y M A N I S L A N D S =========================== GFH FINANCIAL: Fitch Affirms 'B' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable ------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed GFH Financial Group BSC's (GFH) Long- and Short-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'B'. The Outlook on the Long-Term IDR is Stable. Fitch has also affirmed the senior unsecured long-term rating of the USD500 million sukuk due 2029 issued through GFH Senior Sukuk Limited (GFH SSL) at 'B' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4'. GFH SSL is a special-purpose vehicle, incorporated in the Cayman Islands and was established solely to issue certificates (sukuk). Key Rating Drivers High Asset Risk-Weights: GFH's Long-Term IDR reflects its ongoing exposure to individually significant pieces of real estate and other unquoted investments, which carry heightened liquidity and valuation risk relative to listed financial instruments. The rating also considers GFH's market position in Bahrain both as owner of the commercial bank, Khaleeji Bank BSC (Khaleeji; unrated), and at holdco level as an Islamic wholesale investment bank with a developing asset management franchise. Low-Rated Operating Environment: GFH is incorporated and regulated in Bahrain (B+/Negative), with further activities across the MENA region. Khaleeji's business is entirely domestic. Bahrain's sovereign rating, on which Fitch revised the Outlook to Negative from Stable in February 2025, does not directly cap GFH's Long-Term IDR, but restricts upgrade potential at its current level. Illiquid Investment Exposure: In Fitch's view GFH's exposure to unquoted and therefore less liquid assets remains significant. Real estate and Level 2 and 3 financial instruments reduced to a total USD2.6 billion at end-2024 (2023: USD3.0 billion), but still represented 23% (2023: 27%) of total assets and more than double shareholders' equity. In addition to its own real estate, GFH has exposure via its 52.5% (but unconsolidated) interest in Infracorp BSC (unrated). Infracorp holds a portfolio of real estate assets divested from GFH in 2022, alongside other assets. GFH also has a material volume of more liquid assets in its treasury portfolio, although these are necessary to manage its shorter-dated financial liabilities. Prudential Regulation: GFH is regulated for capital and liquidity by the Central Bank of Bahrain in view of its wholesale banking licence. Fitch regards its capitalisation as adequate for the rating, with an end-2024 common equity Tier 1 ratio of 16.35% at the GFH level and 21.72% within Khaleeji. Restricted Fungibility of Liquidity: GFH's liquidity coverage ratio and net stable funding ratio are above regulatory requirements at 194% and 133%, respectively. However, in Fitch's view, GFH remains exposed to longer-term liquidity risks, given the high proportion of less liquid assets it continues to hold alongside its treasury investments, and the lack of fungibility of both capital and liquidity between the parent entity and Khaleeji as a separately regulated subsidiary. Variable Investment Banking Revenue: GFH increased fee-earning assets under management in 2024 to USD10.7 billion from USD9.9 billion at end-2023. Asset management income grew significantly to USD75.1 million from only USD18.7 million the previous year. However, the other component of investment banking income, deal-related income, decreased to USD105.1 million from USD182.7 million in 2023, demonstrating the potential volatility of revenue from this source. Khaleeji Profitability Strengthening: GFH's commercial banking activities are principally within Khaleeji, where profit for the year increased to USD27.9 million in 2024 (2023: USD24.1 million). Following strategic revisions, this represented its fifth successive year of positive contribution, after previous losses. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade Material reduction in GFH's regulatory capital headroom, for example, via significant impairment of its unlisted investments. Reduced investor appetite for GFH as a deposit-taker or asset manager, negatively affecting its liquidity or fee income and increasing the reliance of its cash generation on illiquid assets. A deterioration in the Bahrain operating environment, giving rise to significant asset-quality problems within Khaleeji, losses in GFH's own treasury activities or to lower demand for GFH's other investment banking services. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade Increased revenue stability by generating a materially greater proportion of recurring income. This would be likely to require further development of GFH's asset management business and reduced exposure to real estate investments. Improvements in the macroeconomic condition of GFH's key operating environments, supporting investment exit multiples and investment banking demand. DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS The USD500 million 2029 certificates issued through GFH SSL are rated 'B'/'RR4'. GFH SSL is incorporated in the Cayman Islands as a trust for charitable purposes, with its share capital held by Walkers Fiduciary Limited. The US dollar certificates' ratings are driven solely by GFH's 'B' Long-Term IDR. This reflects Fitch's view that a default of these senior unsecured obligations would reflect a default of GFH in accordance with Fitch's rating definitions. The Recovery Rating of 'RR4' reflects Fitch's expectation of average recoveries in the event of a default. DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES GFH SSL's sukuk rating is principally sensitive to changes in GFH's IDR. The ratings could also be sensitive to changes to the roles and obligations of GFH under the sukuk's structure and documents. ESG Considerations As an Islamic bank, GFH needs to ensure compliance of its entire operations and activities with sharia principles and rules. This entails additional costs, processes, disclosures, regulations, reporting and a sharia audit which results in a Governance Structure Relevance Score of '4', which has a negative impact on the entity's credit profile in combination with other factors. The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior ----------- ------ -------- ----- GFH Financial Group BSC LT IDR B Affirmed B ST IDR B Affirmed B GFH Senior Sukuk Limited senior unsecured LT B Affirmed RR4 B ========= C H I L E ========= AGROSUPER SA: Moody's Affirms Ba1 CFR & Alters Outlook to Positive ------------------------------------------------------------------ Moody's Ratings affirmed Agrosuper S.A.'s ("Agrosuper") Ba1 Corporate Family Rating and the senior unsecured Global Notes rating. The outlook was changed to positive from stable. RATINGS RATIONALE The change in outlook to positive from stable reflects Agrosuper's strong financial performance, strengthened liquidity, and resiliency in credit metrics supported by above-average profitability and by its commitment to financial soundness. The company has strengthened its liquidity position with committed revolving credit facilities totaling around $100 million and has used positive free cash flow to reduce its debt stock and leverage over the last five quarters. As a result, the company's credit metrics rebounded quickly from the 2023 market downturn. Moody's may upgrade Agrosuper if Moody's assesses that the company can sustain metrics consistent with a higher rating, with only small fluctuations associated with the protein and economic cycles, such that gross debt to EBITDA remains below 2.0x (1.2x as of the last twelve months (LTM) ended March 2025), interest coverage above 8.0x (13.3x as of LTM March-2025), and retained cash flow to net debt above 30% (100% as of LTM March-2025). Agrosuper's credit profile is supported by sustained and strong profitability reinforced by its diversified product range in poultry, pork, and salmon, integrated production model, and strong global export business and logistics network. The company holds over half market share in the Chilean domestic markets for chicken and pork and is the third largest salmon exporter worldwide. The company's integration within its production and commercial chain results in improved efficiency and profitability compared to regional peers. It has a diverse portfolio of clients worldwide and an export business accounting for 59% of the company's revenues in 2024. Agrosuper's credit metrics improved during 2024 and continued to benefit from enhanced profitability and debt reduction initiatives into Q1 2025. As of LTM March-2025, the company's Moody's adjusted gross leverage, which was already comfortably at 1.5x in December 2024, further decreased to 1.2x as of March 2025, and Moody's expects the company to maintain leverage within 1.0x-1.5x range in 2025-2026. Agrosuper's credit profile is mainly constrained by its sensitivity to protein and grain price changes, the cyclical protein industry, climate risks, and environmental regulations. Also, the company faces potential trade barriers in international markets and faces risks related to animal disease and safety. These risks are exacerbated due to the concentration of its production facilities in Chile. Other key credit challenges arise from external factors such as US tariffs, which are considered to have low materiality for Agrosuper. While family-owned, Agrosuper adheres to good governance practices in compliance with local capital markets regulations. The company maintains a very good liquidity position to support its operations and growth initiatives. As of March 2025, the company had about $297 million in cash and marketable securities with 84% denominated in US dollars, and Moody's expects $400-500 million in cash flow from operations in the next 12-18 months, which will in turn support positive free cash flow generation in the same period. These compare favorably with the company's debt obligations of around $121 million in next 18 months. Additionally, Agrosuper has strengthened its liquidity by performing liability management to extend its debt maturity profile during 2024 as well as securing committed revolving credit facilities totaling around $100 million. Agrosuper's Ba1 rating is three notches below the Baa1 indicated by Moody's Protein and Agriculture rating methodology scorecard as of March 2025. This is due to its smaller scale and concentrated production base relative to global peers, increasing risks related to climate, environmental regulations and trade barriers. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS Positive pressure on the ratings would require Agrosuper to show a resilient performance regardless of the underlying macroeconomic environment and consumption patterns supported by a broader geographic distribution of its production facilities, while maintaining a conservative approach to financial policy regarding capital expenditure and dividends. Quantitatively, an upgrade would be dependent on the company achieving greater stability in earnings and cash flow through the cycle so that gross debt to EBITDA is sustained below 2.0x; EBITDA to interest expenses above 8.0x; and retaining cash flow to net debt above 30% (with some volatility during the high and low points of the protein industry cycles). Conversely, Agrosuper's ratings could be downgraded if its liquidity or operating performance deteriorates. Quantitatively, a downgrade could also occur if the company's leverage, as measured by Moody's-adjusted gross debt to EBITDA ratio, remains above 3.0x, while EBITDA to interest expense falls below 7.0x, and retained cash flow to net debt ratio dips below 25%. COMPANY PROFILE Founded in 1955 and headquartered in Rancagua, Chile, Agrosuper is a vertically integrated protein producer with more than 1,500 fresh, frozen and value-added products. Through its meat business, Agrosuper produces chicken, pork, turkey and processed food; through its aquaculture business, it produces both Pacific and Atlantic salmon. The principal methodology used in these ratings was Protein and Agriculture published in August 2024. =================================== D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C =================================== [] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Tourism Fuels Over 40% of Economic Growth ---------------------------------------------------------------- Dominican Today reports that Tourism Minister David Collado underscored the vital role of tourism in the Dominican Republic's economy, noting that the sector accounts for over 15% of the national GDP. He described tourism as the pillar of economic stability, citing revenues of more than US$10,500 million in 2024, which helped maintain a stable exchange rate, according to Dominican Today. Collado highlighted that from 2022 to 2024, over 40% of the country's economic growth was driven by tourism, a figure confirmed by the Central Bank governor, the report notes. He added that in many countries, tourism would be regarded as the main industry - and in the Dominican Republic, it has proven to be indispensable to national development, the report adds. About Dominican Republic The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation. TCR-LA reported in April 2019 that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues, growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international commitments." An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of participants in the electricity sector to establish financial viability for the system. Standard & Poor's credit rating for Dominican Republic was raised to 'BB' in December 2022 with stable outlook. Moody's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last set at Ba3 in August 2023 with the outlook changed to positive. Fitch, in December 2023, affirmed the Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' and revised the outlook to positive. ================= G U A T E M A L A ================= BANCO INDUSTRIAL: S&P Upgrades LT ICR to 'BB+', Outlook Stable -------------------------------------------------------------- S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term issuer credit ratings on Guatemalan banks Banco Industrial S.A. (BI) and Banco G&T Continental S.A. (Banco G&TC) to 'BB+' from 'BB'. At the same time, S&P affirmed its short-term global scale rating at 'B' on both entities. The outlook is stable on both banks. On May 23, 2025, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term foreign currency credit rating on Guatemala to 'BB+' from 'BB'. We also affirmed our 'B' short-term credit rating. The outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. S&P said, "Despite the global economic uncertainty, we think Guatemala has very strong external and fiscal buffers to manage external shocks. The upgrade also reflects Guatemala's maintenance of conservative macroeconomic policies with the lowest level of net government debt in Latin America, despite potential bouts of political uncertainty. "Therefore, we are revising our economic risk score in Guatemala's Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) to '7' from '8', reflecting the banking system's higher economic resilience thanks to stable macroeconomic prospects and favorable dynamics for credit expansion." The sovereign's upgrade and the BICRA anchor revision triggered an upgrade on Guatemalan rated banks. The stronger economic risk score caused an upward revision of the banks' anchor to 'bb+' from 'bb'. This, in turn, resulted in an upward revision in BI and Banco G&TC's stand-alone credit profiles (SACPs) and issuer credit rating, which are now in line with the 'BB+' long-term foreign currency sovereign rating. The upgrade of Guatemala reflects its track record of macroeconomic stability and economic resiliency. The country's manageable fiscal deficits, very low net debt, strong external profile, and history of sound monetary policy constitute key credit strengths. On the other hand, the country faces substantial social and infrastructure needs, which curtail growth prospects. In addition, the ratings incorporate S&P's view of Guatemala's still developing public institutions, historically high perceived corruption, and a challenging political environment that constrains policymaking effectiveness. Favorable economic dynamics have lowered the risks for the Guatemalan banking sector. S&P said, "Similarly, the BICRA anchor revision indicates our view that the banking sector is benefitting from higher economic resilience supported by macroeconomic stability, and favorable business conditions and economic growth prospects. Therefore, we revised our assessment of the economic risk in BICRA to '7' from '8', along with the trend to stable from positive. As of March 2025, credit expansion was strong, with a year-over-year growth of 11% in nominal terms. Although we expect a slowdown in credit growth for 2025, reflecting the potential impact of lower remittance inflows, we anticipate credit expansion of around 10% for the next two years, with commercial and consumer loans representing about 65% and 35%, respectively." Guatemalan banks' asset quality metrics have slipped in the past 18 months due to robust loan growth. However, these metrics remain at manageable levels and are better than those of regional peers. S&P said, "In the past six months, nonperforming assets have stabilized at 2.8%, and we expect them to remain below 3% for the next couple of years. We expect profitability metrics to also stabilize during 2025, with return on assets and return on equity projected at 2.0% and 15%, respectively. So, despite the global economic uncertainty, we believe that Guatemala's inflation and interest rates within central bank targets, a stable unemployment rate, and satisfactory GDP growth prospects will continue to support banks' operating performance, enhancing their economic resilience." S&P said, "Finally, our industry risk assessment remains unchanged with a stable trend. The latter indicates the room for improvement in the institutional framework. It also reflects that the banking system continues to benefit from a broad deposit base that results in good financial flexibility. Finally, we do not perceive competitive disruption from government-owned banks and/or new digital competitors, while funding remains in a comfortable position as loan to deposits ratio was 70% at the end of 2024." BI S&P said, "Following the abovementioned actions, we also revised our assessment of BI's capital and earnings to adequate from moderate. This is because the upgrade of Guatemala and the improvement in the economic risk score reduced the bank's risk-weighted assets, strengthening its risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio. In this sense, our consolidated projected RAC ratio rose to 7.5%, a level consistent with the adequate category, from 6.6%. The change in the capital and earnings assessment did not impact the bank's SACP, given that both the moderate and adequate scores are neutral (0 notches), considering the bank's anchor of 'bb+'. "The ratings on BI also reflect its solid market position as Guatemala's largest bank, which will continue to support its business stability. We also capture the manageable asset quality indicators but offset by the above-average dollarization on the bank's balance sheet. Finally, the bank's deposit base remains one of its main strengths and provides it with enough liquidity to face short-term obligations, despite adverse market conditions." Outlook S&P said, "The stable outlook on BI incorporates our expectations that it will remain Guatemala's largest bank, which will continue to support its business stability. We expect the bank to maintain stable internal capital generation, resulting in healthy capitalization levels above 7% for the next 12 months. Furthermore, although asset quality indicators have been pressured due to retail loan growth, they should remain manageable and stronger than those of its regional peers." Downside scenario. S&P said, "We could lower the ratings if any of the bank's credit factors weaken beyond our base-case assumptions, resulting in a lower SACP. For instance, we could lower ratings on the bank if its and the consolidated RAC ratio dropped below 5%, resulting from lower internal capital generation and/or significantly higher-than-expected loan growth." Upside scenario. An upgrade of BI would require an upgrade of Guatemala, coupled with an improvement of the bank's SACP. However, S&P doesn't expect such a scenario in the next 12 months. Banco G&TC The ratings on the bank reflect its business stability and growing operating revenue, supported by its sound market position in Guatemala. The ratings also incorporate stable interest margins, and consequently, sufficient internal capital generation to expand its business, resulting in a consolidated RAC ratio of about 8.2% for the next two years. Moreover, S&P expects its asset quality indicators to remain manageable and in line with those of regional peers. In addition, Banco G&TC's funding base relies mainly on deposits from the retail sector, which have been resilient and stable and provide the bank with enough liquidity to face its short-term obligations. Outlook S&P said, "The stable outlook on Banco G&TC reflects our expectations that Banco G&TC will maintain a solid market position in the country, resulting in business stability. We also expect the bank to maintain stable internal capital generation, resulting in healthy capitalization. Finally, although we expect asset quality indicators to continue to slip due to the bank's strategy of expanding its retail exposure, we believe they will remain manageable and in line with those of regional peers." Downside scenario. S&P said, "We could lower the ratings if any of the bank's credit factors weaken beyond our base-case assumptions, resulting in a lower SACP. For instance, we could lower ratings on the bank if its and the parent's RAC ratio drops below 5%, resulting from lower internal capital generation and/or significantly higher-than-expected loan growth." Upside scenario. An upgrade of Banco G&TC would require an upgrade of Guatemala, coupled with an improvement of the bank's SACP. However, S&P doesn't expect such a scenario in the next 12 months. Guatemala's BICRA snapshot To From BICRA group 6 7 Economic risk 7 8 Economic resilience Very high risk Extremely high risk Economic imbalances Intermediate risk Intermediate risk Credit risk in the economy Very high risk Very high risk Industry risk 5 5 Institutional framework High risk High risk Competitive dynamics Intermediate risk Intermediate risk System-wide funding Intermediate risk Intermediate risk Trends Economic risk trend Stable Positive Industry risk trend Stable Stable Ratings score snapshot To From BI Issuer credit rating BB+/Stable/B BB/Positive/B SACP bb+ bb Anchor bb+ bb Business position Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Capital and earnings Adequate (0) Moderate (0) Risk position Moderate (-1) Moderate (-1) Funding and liquidity Adequate/ Adequate/ Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Support ALAC support 0 0 GRE support 0 0 Group support 0 0 Sovereign support 0 0 Additional factors 0 0 Banco G&TC Issuer credit rating BB+/Stable/B BB/Positive/B SACP bb+ bb Anchor bb+ bb Business position Strong (+1) Strong (+1) Capital and earnings Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Risk position Moderate (-1) Moderate (-1) Funding and liquidity Adequate/ Adequate/ Adequate (0) Adequate (0) Support ALAC support 0 0 GRE support 0 0 Group support 0 0 Sovereign support 0 0 Additional factors 0 0 ============= J A M A I C A ============= JAMAICA: BOJ Warns US Debt Time Bomb Outweighs Trade War Risks -------------------------------------------------------------- Dashan Hendricks at Jamaica Observer reports that ANK of Jamaica (BOJ) governor Richard Byles has issued a stark warning that America's spiraling budget deficits now present a more severe danger to the global economy than ongoing trade conflicts, as the world's largest economy grapples with its third credit rating downgrade since 2011. His comments follow Moody's recent decision to cut the US government's credit rating from its top-tier Aaa to Aa1, citing concerns over its US$36-trillion debt burden - which now exceeds the nation's US$30 trillion GDP, according to Jamaica Observer. The move has sent ripples through financial markets and could complicate US president Donald Trump's push for further tax cuts, the report relays. "What it is saying is that all the rating agencies are now aligned, that the big problem the United States faces is the fiscal deficit," Byles told reporters in Kingston recently, the report relays. "And that deficit is what's driving the rating agencies to downgrade," he added. Moody's, in notes accompanying its downgrade, warned of "significantly higher" US borrowing costs compared to peers, joining Fitch which issued a downgrade in 2023 and Standard & Poor's which in 2011, stripped America of its pristine AAA status, the report discloses. But, while global attention has focused on Trump's tariff battles - including a recent US court ruling that found his steel/aluminum levies unlawful - Byles argued fiscal instability poses graver consequences, the report notes. "We have spent a lot of time and angst looking at tariffs, but the United States faces a bigger issue with their fiscal deficit," Byles continued, the report relays. "That can have implications for world trade and economies dealing with the US," he added. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had already projected 2025 global growth to slow to 2.8 per cent from 3.3 per cent in 2024, partly due to the trade tensions, the report notes. However, Byles emphasised that debt-driven market volatility could exacerbate the slowdown, the report says. "And that can have implications for world trade and for economies that deal with the United States. So that is something that we are watching very carefully," he confirmed. Jamaican manufacturers have already begin to outline how the trade war is impacting their efforts to sell into the United States, with some saying that distributors have asked them to absorb a portion of the tariffs, a request they have rejected in some cases, the report discloses. Economists have warned that without US fiscal reforms, emerging markets may face capital flight and currency pressures, the report says. Jamaica's sovereign debt, currently at 68 per cent of GDP, could become more expensive to service if global interest rates rise due to US market turbulence - the proverbial cold Jamaica catches when America sneezes, the report notes. The downgrade could also see investors flee US treasury securities, weakening the US dollar and reducing the value of earnings from remittances and tourism, the report relays. Earlier, a surprise ruling by the US Court of International Trade threatened to invalidate Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs — sweeping duties affecting most trading partners, with additional levies targeting Canada, Mexico and China over fentanyl-related trade disputes, the report discloses. The court found Trump had unconstitutionally bypassed Congress by using emergency powers to impose the tariffs, the report says. However, a federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the tariffs, creating new uncertainty for global commerce. The stay gives the administration until June 9 to file its appeal, while affected nations must respond by June 5, the report relays. Trump has argued that his trade policies will stoke economic growth in the future, though many economists predict the opposite, the report adds. About Jamaica Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial and insurance services. On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable. In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to positive. JAMAICA: CDB Study Urges Policy Reform to Tackle Market Inequities ------------------------------------------------------------------ Jamaica Observer reports that a new report by the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB) has revealed significant and persistent disparities in the region's labour markets, particularly affecting women, youth, indigenous peoples, and persons with disabilities, effecting a call for swift action. The study, titled 'Labour Market Differentials in the Caribbean', underscores the need for inclusive policies among CDB client countries to dismantle structural barriers and foster equitable economic growth, according to Jamaica Observer. The report outlined widespread inequalities in wages, labour force participation, education, and access to employment, Jamaica Observer discloses. It also emphasised the need for developing inclusive policies that not only promote equal opportunity but also directly address the entrenched disadvantages faced by marginalised groups, Jamaica Observer relays. A key finding of the report is the persistent gender wage gap, which continues to disproportionately affect women, particularly those heading households, the report notes. "Gender wage gaps have serious implications for women in employment. They result in financial disadvantage, contribute to career demotivation, and most significantly, reduce bargaining power in the workplace - undermining the principles of decent work," the report noted, the report relates. The study also highlighted labour force participation (LFP) as a major area of disparity, the report relays. This, as data from several countries show that men consistently participate in the labour market at higher rates than women, the report discloses. In Jamaica, for instance, male LFP increased from 73.1 per cent pre-COVID to 75.8 per cent by 2023. Female participation, however, rose only slightly from 58.5 per cent to 61.4 per cent during the same period, the report says. "Gender wage gaps have serious implications for women in employment. They result in financial disadvantage, contribute to career demotivation, and most significantly, reduce bargaining power in the workplace - undermining the principles of decent work," the report noted, Jamaica Observer notes. The study also highlighted labour force participation (LFP) as a major area of disparity, the report discloses. This, as data from several countries show that men consistently participate in the labour market at higher rates than women, the report relays. In Jamaica, for instance, male LFP increased from 73.1 per cent pre-COVID to 75.8 per cent by 2023, the report recalls. Female participation, however, rose only slightly from 58.5 per cent to 61.4 per cent during the same period, the report notes. The report attributed much of this gap to the disproportionate caregiving responsibilities borne by women - especially during the pandemic - which forced many out of the workforce or strained their mental health as they struggled to balance work and family, the report discloses. Despite women having higher tertiary education completion rates across the region, this has not translated into equal employment opportunities for that group, further underscoring systemic gender inequality in Caribbean societies, the report says. The report attributed much of this gap to the disproportionate caregiving responsibilities borne by women - especially during the pandemic - which forced many out of the workforce or strained their mental health as they struggled to balance work and family, Jamaica Observer relays. Despite women having higher tertiary education completion rates across the region, this has not translated into equal employment opportunities for that group, further underscoring systemic gender inequality in Caribbean societies, Jamaica Observer adds. About Jamaica Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial and insurance services. On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable. In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to positive. JAMAICA: Money Lost to Fraud Jumped to $1.73BB in 2023 ------------------------------------------------------ RJR News reports that data released by the Bank of Jamaica revealed that money fraudulently taken from the financial sector jumped to $1.73 billion during the financial year ended March 31, 2023. Cheque fraud, which accounted for $401 million during the period, grew rapidly to become the second highest instrument used to commit financial sector fraud, according to RJR News. A total $658 million was stolen from the financial sector due to credit card fraud, $305 million from debit card fraud and 262 million through internet banking fraud, the report notes. The BOJ says some $145 million was stolen by physical attacks, including armed robberies and attempts at ATM locations, the report adds. About Jamaica Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial and insurance services. On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable. In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to positive. =========== M E X I C O =========== BANCO COMPARTAMOS: S&P Affirms 'BB+/B' ICRs, Outlook Stable ----------------------------------------------------------- S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB+/B' global scale and 'mxAA/mxA-1+' national scale issuer credit ratings on Banco Compartamos S.A. The outlooks on the issuer credit ratings remain stable. Finally, S&P also affirmed its 'mxAA' issue-level rating on the bank's senior unsecured notes. S&P said, "We expect the acquisition to accelerate the group's business growth through synergies, cross selling, and leveraging Concredito's products. Gentera plans to purchase the remaining shares of Concredito, a Mexican microcredit lender, for Mexican peso (MXN) 2.495 billion in June 2025. The transaction will be funded 30% with capital surplus held in the group and 70% with debt booked in the nonoperating holding company." S&P said, "Banco Compartamos' holding company Gentera S.A.B. plans to purchase the remaining shares in Concredito, which we expect to continue accelerating the group's business growth but lead to lower risk-adjusted capital (RAC) for the next two years. Nonetheless, we consider Gentera and Banco Compartamos' profitability and internal capital generation to be superior to Mexican peers. "We estimate Gentera's and Compartamos' RAC ratios will remain consistently below 15% for the next 12-24 months. The bank has been growing its loan portfolio significantly during the past two years and we expect it to continue to do so. Coupled with Concredit's acquisition and a constant dividend policy, this will result in lower RAC ratios for the next two years of 14.1%-14.7% for Gentera and 12.4%-12.9% for Compartamos. Our forecast incorporates loan portfolio growth between 15% and 20% for the group and the bank in 2025-2026, coupled with dividend payout ratios of 40% for Gentera and 70% for Compartamos. "Nonetheless, we expect Gentera and Banco Compartamos' profitability and internal capital generation capacity to remain superior to those of Mexican peers. The bank continues to benefit from high margins, reflecting its focus on higher-risk customers compared with most commercial banks in Mexico. We expect 2025 operating revenue will grow 20%-25% with a stable NIM at about 44% for the next years. Moreover, we think the bank's sales force will become more efficient while its cost of risk will remain stable, albeit higher than the rest of the Mexican banking system. With these, we forecast a return on assets of 9%-10% and a return on average equity of 34%-38%, which compare positively to the Mexican banking sector averages of 2.0% and 18.2%, respectively. "Therefore, we apply a positive comparable analysis adjustment on the bank's stand-alone credit profile to reflect its solid earnings capacity, capital quality, and superior profitability--which in the past has enabled the bank to rebuild its capital in adverse economic conditions more quickly than peers. Furthermore, the bank has solid access to the local debt market and a highly diversified customer loan portfolio, making its creditworthiness stronger than peers in the same rating category. "We expect the bank's asset quality to remain stable but weaker than its regional peers for the next 12 months. During 2024, the bank's nonperforming asset (NPA) and net charge-off (NCO) ratios were 3.9% and 8.6%, respectively. In our opinion, Compartamos' asset quality is weaker than the average of the Mexican banking system, but in line with the high-risk nature of its clients. However, uncertainty regarding U.S. trade policy, lower expected economic growth in Mexico, and a series of local policy changes could pose additional challenges to the bank during 2025." Compartamos does not hold any client concentration. That said, many customers are in the informal segment, which is more vulnerable to economic downturns. This exacerbates losses during periods of stress, as seen during the pandemic; nonetheless, the bank also recovered faster than the rest of the industry after this period. S&P said, "We anticipate Compartamos' funding profile will remain concentrated in credit lines and market debt, with healthy liquidity in the next 12 months. The bank continues to rely on wholesale funding sources--mainly domestic debt and development banking lines. As of March 2025, its funding mix was composed of credit lines (53%), market debt (34%), and deposits (13%). "We expect Compartamos' deposit base to gradually increase, but it would take some time for the bank to catch up with the rest of the system. On the other hand, we believe the bank has sufficient resources to meet its operating expenses and financial obligations in the next 12 months, including MXN6.2 billion of market debt and credit line maturities. "The stable outlook on Compartamos reflects our expectation that for the next 12 months, Compartamos' and Gentera's RAC ratios will remain below 15%. Nonetheless, the bank will maintain its solid earnings capacity and superior profitability -- compared with peers -- that could boost internal capital generation, if needed. Finally, we estimate the bank's NPAs plus NCOs will remain in line with its historical levels." S&P could take a negative rating action on the bank if Gentera's and Compartamos' RAC ratios and profitability erode significantly. This could occur if: -- The bank's profitability weakens until we no longer consider its capital generation capacity superior to its peers; or -- If the group's or the bank's capitalization decreases substantially due to an extraordinary capital outflow, such as an additional acquisition or an unexpected dividend payment. S&P said, "Additionally, we could lower our ratings on the bank if its asset quality is weaker or more volatile than we expect, resulting in NPAs plus NCOs consistently above 13%. "We could take a positive rating action on Compartamos if NPAs plus NCOs fall consistently below 8%, or if retail deposits become its main funding source. However, we consider this unlikely in the next 12 months." ======= P E R U ======= TELEFONICA DEL PERU: Fitch Cuts IDR to 'D' & Then Withdraws Rating ------------------------------------------------------------------ Fitch Ratings has downgraded Telefonica del Peru S.A.A.'s (TdP) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'D' from 'RD' and affirmed the senior unsecured notes at 'C' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4'. Simultaneously, Fitch withdrew all the ratings. The downgrade to 'D' is due to the approval of the Ordinary Restructuring Bankruptcy Process (Proceso Concursal Ordinario; PCO) by the National Institute for the Defense of Free Competition and the Protection of Intellectual Property (INDECOPI) to restructure TdP's financial obligations. This follows the company's failure to pay the principal and interest installments on its 2027 international bond as of April 10, 2025, and local bonds due April 19, 2025. Fitch has withdrawn TdP's 'D' IDR for commercial reasons. Accordingly, Fitch will no longer provide ratings or analytical coverage for TdP Key Rating Drivers Restructuring Process: In May 2025, INDECOPI approved the PCO which TdP entered in February to restructure its financial obligations, including its tax commitments with Superintendencia Nacional de Aduanas y de Administración Tributaria (SUNAT). The contingencies from 2000-2001 were recently formalized for PEN947 million. The downgrade indicates that the company has entered bankruptcy filings, administration, receivership, liquidation or another formal winding-up procedure. Peer Analysis Not applicable as the ratings have been withdrawn. RATING SENSITIVITIES Not applicable as the ratings have been withdrawn. Issuer Profile Telefonica del Peru, S.A.A. is Peru's largest integrated telecom operator in terms of revenue share. The company provides mobile and fixed-line telephony, broadband, and Pay TV though its Movistar brand, as well as IT solution services for corporate clients. MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items included. ESG Considerations The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior ----------- ------ -------- ----- Telefonica del Peru, S.A.A. LT IDR D Downgrade RD LT IDR WD Withdrawn LC LT IDR D Downgrade RD LC LT IDR WD Withdrawn senior unsecured LT C Affirmed RR4 C senior unsecured LT WD Withdrawn ===================================== T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O ===================================== TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Shift in US Policy Could Impact T&T LNG Trade ---------------------------------------------------------------- Trinidad Express reports that a regulatory shift in New England, USA, could ripple all the way to Trinidad and Tobago, potentially impacting LNG exports, the Energy Chamber warned, as it highlighted how interconnected the global energy market has become. In a blog post titled: "New York wind farms, pipelines and Trinidad LNG", the Energy Chamber stated that despite the USA being the world's largest LNG exporter, the world's biggest economy still imported 0.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) of LNG from Trinidad and Tobago in 2023, according to Trinidad Express. And New England has continued to rely on imported LNG to meet demand during peak periods, the blog stated, the report relays. "This is because local environmental opposition at the state level in New York and surrounding states has prevented the construction of gas transmission pipelines to bring gas from producing areas like Pennsylvania to consumers in the northeast, the report says. Cargoes Flagged in Some Countries "LNG export facilities on the US Gulf coast are also unable to ship LNG to Boston because US legislation (the Jones Act) means that only US-flagged LNG carriers can move cargoes between US ports (most carriers are flagged in countries like Japan, Liberia, Panama, Bermuda and Malaysia); so Trinidad, as the next nearest source of LNG, has continued to supply the US, despite the shale gas revolution," it stated, the report relays. However, the Energy Chamber warned this could soon change, the report discloses. "Recent reports from the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg suggest that there are moves to overcome the environmental opposition to new natural gas transmission pipelines linking consumers in New England with the producers further south and west," it stated. Local Impact "Furthermore, the greenlighting of the massive Empire offshore wind project located about 15 miles south of Long Island and spanning 80,000 acres, notwithstanding President Trump's well-documented opposition to wind turbines, will supply an additional 810 MW of clean electricity to the northeast", The Energy Chamber stated, the report notes. The Energy Chamber stated exports to the USA only account for 3% of Trinidad's total LNG exports and there is a lot of demand for LNG in key markets, especially in Europe and Asia, the report discloses. "Nevertheless, the impact of these local changes in the USA shows the interconnection of the global energy industry and how decisions elsewhere can impact on Trinidad and Tobago," it stated. TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: SMEs Hopeful as New Government Settles In ------------------------------------------------------------ Vishanna Phagoo at Trinidad Express reports that members of the local business community, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), have expressed support for the new administration and are urging citizens to be patient as the country begins its path to economic and social recovery. This is according to president of the Fyzabad Chamber of Commerce Angie Jairam, the report notes. In a WhatsApp exchange with the Express one month since the UNC's victory, she commented: "Given the reports and decisions made so far, we in the business sector understand it needs time to rebuild the various sectors of the economy based on the disaster of the past nine and a half years," according to Trinidad Express. Acknowledging the hardship faced by SMEs over the years, she added, "The business community, while difficult for us to operate - especially the SMEs - many of us were the forgotten sector of this country. And so we are prepared to give the new Government some time, as we are listening carefully to the disservice done to our beloved country in many sectors, as reported recently by Cabinet members," the report relays. Despite the challenges, Jairam noted the optimism within the community, largely due to the tone and direction being set by Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar: "However, there is a sense of comfort given by the honourable Prime Minister Mrs Kamla Persad-Bissessar, assuring all in the country that ‘all will be well and people can go about their business,' and the Government will continue to work towards fixing the ills from the past," she added. "There is a sense of confidence that's coming back to population, and it is certainly a relief, as we notice most ministers are busy with their teams on the ground working," Jairam added. She highlighted that improved access to government ministers and their engagement with communities is also welcome, the report notes. "We are happy to see it's so much easier to meet with ministers as we share ideas in the interest of business and all others. We look forward to working towards a better society, a better T&T." She added that she believes their proactiveness, and the boots-on-the-ground approach, can impact positively to rebuild confidence in the society, the report relays. The report discloses that Jairam also encouraged ongoing civic involvement and said, "The population must give the Government some time; but continue to engage, and report to your MP or other representative ways in which your communities can assist in bringing relief..." Jairam called for collaboration, saying: "It is important to keep an open-minded relationship with the citizens, as they sometimes have the solutions to resolving issues—and we see already this is happening," the report relays. She said as the new Government continues its work, many in the business sector are hopeful that this open engagement, combined with meaningful reform, will lay the foundation for a more prosperous, unified T&T, the report notes. Meanwhile, president of the San Juan Business Association (SJBA) Abrahim Ali also weighed in on the national conversation, the report says. "One month is definitely not a long enough time for the UNC Government to make an impact on the performance of the T&T economy and the crime situation that currently exists. SJBA, however, has taken note of how the Government intends to ramp up its efforts in improving the present situation," he said in a telephone conversation, the report discloses. He added that the SJBA is seeing the Government's approach as a positive one as it relates to their negotiations within the energy sector, the report relays. The report relays that Ali also raised concerns over port inefficiencies and their economic effects. "We would like to see some action taken on imported goods that remains on the ports for too long, causing escalation in charges which will impact the consumers." He further stressed the urgency of addressing the rising cost of living, the report notes. "The cost of living is an area that this Government will need to take a serious look at. This we see the Ministry of Agriculture taking steps to ensure the prices of produce are reduced." On the legislative front, he said the implementation of the AJIPA (Administration of Justice [Indictable Proceedings] Bill can help reduce crime, the report relays. "Another area that we understand the Ministry of Legal Affairs is looking at is the complete overhaul of the AJIPA Bill. When this legislation was implemented, it created lots of problems for the police in obtaining warrants, et cetera. The escalation of crime in T&T is linked directly to this piece of legislation," he added. =============== X X X X X X X X =============== LATAM: CARICOM Members Urged to Up Chicken Products Production -------------------------------------------------------------- RJR News reports that CARICOM member states are being urged to increase production of value-added chicken products as they currently supply just US$1 million worth of these items. This is according to Shaun Baugh, programme manager for agriculture and agro-industrial development at the CARICOM Secretariat, the report notes. He stressed that there is strong demand for these products in the region, adding that the CARICOM Secretariat will be implementing changes in order to facilitate this, according to RJR News. CARICOM notes data suggesting there has been an increase in demand for chicken nuggets, chicken sausages, chicken wings, pre-cooked and marinated chicken, and cold cuts, the report notes. The demand for poultry products in Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to reach 58 million tonnes, valued at US$198 billion by the year 2030, the report relays. The region plans to reduce its food import bill by 25% by the end of 2030, the report adds. [] LATAM: IDB and WTTC Join Forces to Strengthen Tourism -------------------------------------------------------- The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) launched a new Tourism Task Force. Announced during the Plenary Meeting of the Americas Business Dialogue (ABD), the initiative aims to position tourism as a key engine of economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean by strengthening ties between the public and private sectors. The ABD is a private sector-led initiative facilitated by the IDB that promotes high-level dialogue between governments and the private sector in the region to advance development-focused policies. This strategic partnership between the IDB and WTTC outlines a roadmap to shape public policy recommendations, mobilize investment, and scale solutions that benefit communities and tourism destinations. The Tourism Task Force initially brings together 22 companies, including Marriott International, Copa Airlines, Grupo Aviatur, The Leading Hotels of the World, Anato Colombia, Carnival Cruise Line, COHEP, and Grupo PuntaCana, among others. "This launch marks a milestone in integrating tourism into the productive agenda of the IDB and IDB Invest, recognizing its transformative potential for the region. In collaboration with our private sector partners and WTTC, we are working to deliver concrete results: more investment, jobs, and regional growth," said Fabrizio Opertti, Manager of the IDB's Sector of Productivity, Trade and Innovation. Christopher Imbsen, Vice President of Policy at WTTC, underscored the importance of travel and tourism as a growth driver in Latin America and the Caribbean: "The region has a generational opportunity to put Travel & Tourism at the center of their development agenda. With the ABD Task Force now in place, we can drive smarter investment, unlock growth, and deliver jobs and opportunity at scale," said Imbsen. According to WTTC's latest Economic Impact Research (EIR), the tourism sector contributed US$714 billion to the region's GDP in 2024 and generated over 28 million jobs. Yet its potential extends these figures: tourism can energize value chains across gastronomy, logistics, technology, creative industries, and financial services, while also advancing inclusion, digitalization, and territorial development. The ABD plenary session featured speakers including César Dargam, Executive Vice President of the National Council of Private Enterprise (CONEP); Tomás Bermúdez, General Manager of the IDB's Regional Country Department for Central America, Haiti, Mexico, Panama and the Dominican Republic; Fabrizio Opertti, Manager of the IDB's Sector of Productivity, Trade and Innovation; Christopher Imbsen, Vice President of Policy at WTTC; and Katharina Falkner-Olmedo, IDB Country Representative in the Dominican Republic, among others. The next stage for the Task Force will be the presentation of private sector-generated public policy proposals to regional leaders during the CEO Summit of the Americas, scheduled for December 3–4, 2025 in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. ********* S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman, Editors. Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746. This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of the publishers. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year, delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information, contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000. . * * * End of Transmission * * *