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250507.mbx T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R L A T I N A M E R I C A Wednesday, May 7, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 91 Headlines A R G E N T I N A ARGENTINA: Milei Sets End of Inflation Timeline Amid Union Unrest GENERACION MEDITERRANEA: Fitch Lowers Rating on Sr. Unsec Debt to C B R A Z I L BRAZIL: Finance Minister Sees Growing Support for Mercosur-EU Deal CAIXA ECONOMICA: Fitch Rates New Sr. Unsec Notes 'BB(EXP)' CAIXA ECONOMICA: Moody's Rates Sr. Unsecured MTN Program '(P)Ba1' C O L O M B I A GRUPO NUTRESA: Fitch Rates New USD2BB Sr. Unsecured Notes 'BB+' D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Awaits Timely U.S. Response on Tariff J A M A I C A JAMAICA: Strategic Approach Needed to Address Skilled Migration PETROJAM: Gov't. Urged to Make Decision on Refinery's Future T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: US Tariffs Could Pose Economic Threat X X X X X X X X LATAM: Growth Prospects Dim For Region, Says ECLAC - - - - - ================= A R G E N T I N A ================= ARGENTINA: Milei Sets End of Inflation Timeline Amid Union Unrest ----------------------------------------------------------------- Buenos Aires Times reports that President Javier Milei has hailed his government as "the best in Argentina's history" and promised that inflation will be a thing of the past by the middle of next year. But the head of state's remarks -- rather bold, given the nation's regular struggles with runaway price hikes -- arrived as unions began to again ramp up pressure on the government and voice resistance to his "chainsaw" austerity cuts, which they say have left millions struggling to make ends meet, according to Buenos Aires Times. During a speech to investors and economists at the EXPO EFI 2025 event in Buenos Aires, Milei, 54, assured that "inflation has its sell-by date for the middle of next year and now is the time to think of growth," the report notes. "We have concluded the stage of stabilisation," he told the audience, while adding "that does not mean things are perfect," the report relays. Milei assured the crowd that Argentina's period of emergency lay in the past as he fired off enthusiastic praise for his administration's fiscal results, the report notes. He also hailed this month's partial removal of currency and capital controls, which have been in place since 2019, says the report. "The 'cepo' is a monstrous tool because it does not permit those of you who want to save and influences the future," he maintained, using the word to refer to restrictions on the access of foreign currency, relates the report. The head of state also highlighted his recent US$20-billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), blasting -- in coarse language -- critics of his government who had forecast that he would never be able to pull it off, the report notes. Labour Unrest Just hours after Milei spoke, union leaders led thousands of members onto the streets in protest at austerity measures, BA Times relates. Carrying union banners, anti-austerity slogans and images of the late Pope Francis, the demonstrators marched in a protest organised by the CGT (Confederacion General del Trabajo) umbrella union grouping, Argentina's largest and most powerful labour federation, the report relays. The CGT issued a communique complaining that the government "does not attend grievances, nor does it listen or engage in dialogue while implementing a grave austerity whose cost is being paid by workers and the unemployed with deteriorating incomes," the report says. Hours after the march, the UTA transport union announced a bus strike for May 6 following a breakdown in talks with firms and officials, the report discloses. The government has placed a one-percent monthly cap on collective wage bargaining with the aim of containing inflation, which accelerated to a monthly 3.7 percent in March, in the run-up to the October midterms, the report says. Apart from the 14 arrests for allegedly provoking disturbances, the Security Ministry announced that 29 buses transporting demonstrators had been held back "for infractions," the report relays. 'Vaccum' At the CGT rally, Father Lorenzo 'Toto' de Vedia transmitted the support of the so-called slum priests known as "curas villeros," relates BA Times. Denouncing the "indecent wages" and "lack of jobs," the Catholic leader said that in low-income neighbourhoods "the vacuum left by the state is a space filled by narcos," the report notes. "Nobody can reach the end of the month," said Gisela, a cleaning lady who prefers not to give her surname at the rally, the report relays. "There is so much inequality." Since taking office in December 2023, the Milei government's austerity has slashed public spending by 4.7 percent of the Gross Domestic Product, according to data published by the IARAF (Instituto Argentino de Analisis Fiscal) thinktank last February, recalls the report. This effort helped to lower annual inflation from 211 percent in 2023 to 118 percent the following year. Monthly consumer prices hikes are now running at between two and four percent, the report relays. In his EXPO EFI speech, Milei overlooked all this or any reference to the CGT rally, celebrating "a 30-percent reduction in the size of the state," the report says. In his speech, which was laden with insults for his enemies, he mocked those who "weep over social questions," notes the report. Milei highlighted that "with the motosierra," or chainsaw, his government has undertaken "the biggest adjustment in the history of humanity," the report discloses. But political analyst Artemio Lopez sees "the social situation in Argentina as critical," saying: "The distribution of income is the worst in the last 20 years," the report notes. The pensioner organisations staged a new protest outside Congress, snarling traffic in the area, the report notes. The protest was escorted by Border Guard and Federal Police officers to ensure that Security Minister Patricia Bullrich's "anti-picket" protocol was heeded, the report relates. About Argentina Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position. Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution and in the recent decades, increasing poverty. In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a new 30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion, or 1000 percent of quota). The IMF Executive Board's decision allowed the authorities an immediate disbursement of an equivalent of US$9.65 billion in March 2022. Argentina's IMF-supported program seeks to improve public finances and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a multi-pronged strategy, involving a gradual elimination of monetary financing of the fiscal deficit and enhancements in the monetary policy framework. On April 11, 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling US$20 billion (or 479 percent of quota), with an immediate disbursement of US$12 billion, and a first review planned for June 2025 with an associated disbursement of about US$2 billion. The program is expected to help catalyze additional official multilateral and bilateral support, and a timely re-access to international capital markets. On Feb. 17, 2025, S&P Global Ratings lowered its local currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'SD/SD' from 'CCC/C' and its national scale rating to 'SD' from 'raB+'. At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'CCC/C' foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina. The outlook on the long-term foreign currency rating remains stable. On Jan. 8, 2025, Moody's Ratings raised Argentina's local currency ceiling to B3 from Caa1 and the foreign currency ceiling to Caa1 from Caa3. Moody's said the decision to raise the local and foreign currency ceilings reflects the increased predictability and the greater consistency in economic policy that has led to a rapid reduction in monetary and fiscal imbalances that were stoking very high inflation. On Nov. 15, 2024, Fitch Ratings upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC' from 'CC', and its Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to 'CCC' from 'CCC-'. Argentina's upgrade to 'CCC' from 'CC' reflects developments that have improved Fitch's confidence in the authorities' ability to make upcoming foreign-currency bond payments without seeking relief of some sort. DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC on November 25, 2024. The trend on all ratings is Stable. GENERACION MEDITERRANEA: Fitch Lowers Rating on Sr. Unsec Debt to C ------------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has downgraded Generacion Mediterranea S.A.'s (GEMSA) Long-Term Local Currency and Foreign Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'C' from 'CCC'. Fitch has also downgraded GEMSA's senior secured and unsecured debt co-issued by GEMSA and Central Termica Roca S.A. to 'C' from 'CCC+'/'RR3'. The downgrade reflects the initiation of a 30-day grace period following GEMSA's election of non-payment of $19.6 million of interest on its USD354 million senior notes maturing 2031, scheduled for May 5, 2025. Fitch would further downgrade the IDR to 'RD' (Restricted Default) if the interest payment deferral is not cured on expiry of the original grace period or in case of a debt restructuring that constitutes a distressed debt exchange (DDE) under Fitch's rating definitions. Key Rating Drivers Initiation of Grace Period: GEMSA announced that they opted not to make the interest payment scheduled for May 5, 2025. The initiation of a grace or cure period following non-payment of a material financial obligation is commensurate with a 'C' (Near Default) IDR, per Fitch's ratings definitions. Failure to cure the missed interest payment within the 30-day grace period would be an event of default and result in a further downgrade of GEMSA's IDR to 'RD'. Alternatively, any changes agreed to by bondholders resulting in a worsening of terms that constitute a DDE per Fitch's definitions would also result in a downgrade to 'RD'. As of February 2025, GEMSA's total consolidated debt was USD1.5 billion, primarily consisting of USD429 debt from international capital markets and USD938 million from both local capital markets & local bank loans. The company had USD5 million of cash at YE 2024. As of February 2025, debt schedule amortizations were USD216 in 2025, USD188 in 2026 and USD440 million in 2027. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade - Inability to cure the missed interest payment within the allowed grace period; - Initiation of a formal bankruptcy procedure reflected in an uncured payment default on any material financial obligation would lead to a downgrade of the IDRs to 'RD' Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade - Fitch does not expect to take a positive rating action at least until the company resolves the interest payments during the cure period and resolves its liquidity Issuer Profile Generacion Mediterranea S.A. (GEMSA) is a holding company for most of Grupo Albanesi's electricity generation assets. Albanesi has been operating in the sector since 2004, and currently owns or participates in five generation companies: Generacion Mediterranea S.A., Central Termica Roca S.A., GM Operaciones S.A., Generacion Litoral S.A., and Solalban Energia S.A. MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items included. ESG Considerations The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. Entity/Debt Rating Prior ----------- ------ ----- Generacion Mediterranea S.A. LT IDR C Downgrade CCC LC LT IDR C Downgrade CCC senior unsecured LT C Downgrade CCC+ senior secured LT C Downgrade CCC+ Central Termica Roca S.A. senior unsecured LT C Downgrade CCC+ senior secured LT C Downgrade CCC+ =========== B R A Z I L =========== BRAZIL: Finance Minister Sees Growing Support for Mercosur-EU Deal ------------------------------------------------------------------ globalinsolvency.com, citing Reuters, reports that Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said that he sees greater momentum for ratification of the long-delayed trade agreement between the South American bloc Mercosur and the European Union as geopolitical and trade tensions grow. Following 25 years of talks, the free trade deal, which had divided European nations, was finalized in December, according to the report. But it still requires legalization, translation, and approval by member nations from both blocs, the report notes. About Brazil Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022 Brazilian general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as the 39th president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro. In October 2024, Moody's Ratings upgraded the Government of Brazil's long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings to Ba1 from Ba2, the senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)Ba1 from (P)Ba2; and maintained the positive outlook. S&P Global Ratings raised on Dec. 19, 2023, its long-term global scale ratings on Brazil to 'BB' from 'BB-'. Fitch Ratings affirmed on Dec. 15, 2023, Brazil's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with a Stable Outlook. DBRS' credit rating for Brazil was last reported at BB with stable outlook at July 2023. CAIXA ECONOMICA: Fitch Rates New Sr. Unsec Notes 'BB(EXP)' ---------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has assigned Caixa Economica Federal's (Caixa) proposed senior unsecured notes an expected Long-Term rating of 'BB(EXP)'. The issuance is targeted for five years. The amount, rate of interest and final maturity date will be determined at the time of issuance. This issuance is part of the Global Medium-Term Note program with a maximum value of USD 5.0 billion. The net proceeds will used by for general corporate purposes. The final rating is contingent upon the receipt of final documents conforming to the information already received Key Rating Drivers The notes' expected rating matches Caixa's Long-Term IDR (BB/Stable), as they are senior obligations. A default on these notes would equate to a default by the bank, with expected recoveries being average upon default. Caixa 's IDRs are driven by its 'bb' Government Support Rating (GSR) and align with Brazil's 'BB' IDRs. Fitch's assessment of support considers Caixa's important policy role and its full ownership by Brazil's federal government. For more information on Caixa's rating rationale and sensitivities please see Fitch's latest commentary "Fitch Affirms Caixa Economica Federal's IDRs at 'BB'; Outlook Stable, " dated March 14, 2025, at www. fitchratings.com. Rating Sensitivities Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade The notes' rating could be downgraded in the event of a downgrade of Caixa's IDR. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade The note's rating could be upgraded in the event of an upgrade of Caixa's IDR. VR ADJUSTMENTS Fitch does not assign a VR or score the standalone credit factors ESG Considerations Caixa has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' [+] for Human Rights, Community Relations, Access & Affordability due to Caixa's public sector ownership supports its ability to attract low-cost retail deposits, while its policy role ensures it retains a dominant position in the low-income retail mortgage market, which has a positive impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the rating[s] in conjunction with other factors. The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. Entity/Debt Rating ----------- ------ Caixa Economica Federal senior unsecured LT BB(EXP) Expected Rating CAIXA ECONOMICA: Moody's Rates Sr. Unsecured MTN Program '(P)Ba1' ----------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Ratings has assigned a (P)Ba1 long-term foreign currency senior unsecured MTN program rating to Caixa Economica Federal's (Caixa) USD5.0 billion Global MTN Program. Moody's also assigned a Ba1 long-term foreign currency senior unsecured debt rating to the proposed notes to be issued by Caixa under the program. The proposed notes will be denominated and settled in USD, and will mature in five years. The outlook on the senior unsecured debt rating is positive. RATINGS RATIONALE The ratings of (P)Ba1 assigned to the bank's MTN program and Ba1 on the senior unsecured notes derive from Caixa's Ba1 supported long-term deposit ratings. The bank's deposit ratings incorporate one notch of uplift from Caixa's standalone baseline credit assessment (BCA) of ba2 that reflect Moody's assessments of the highest systemic support, as Moody's considers Caixa a government-backed bank because of its full ownership by the federal government and importance as the country's savings bank, with a policy mandate to act as a mortgage lender. Caixa's ba2 BCA incorporates the bank's consistent financial performance, particularly its good capital and asset quality metrics. Caixa's management has focused on enhancing risk management practices and corporate governance during the last five years, a positive to its financial profile. At the same time, the bank has increased earnings retention in agreement with its shareholder, the Government of Brazil (Brazil, Ba1 positive), key to preserve its capital position and solvency levels. The bank also has ample liquidity and adequate capital buffers. Caixa's local and foreign currency long-term deposit ratings and foreign currency senior unsecured debt rating of Ba1, as well as its foreign currency senior unsecured MTN program rating of (P)Ba1, are at the same level as Brazil's sovereign debt rating. The long-term deposit and senior unsecured debt ratings have a positive outlook in line with the outlook on the sovereign debt rating. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS Caixa's BCA could be upgraded if the bank improves its profitability while still maintaining good metrics for asset quality and capitalization. Caixa's deposit ratings incorporate Moody's assumptions of the highest degree of government support because the bank is wholly-owned by the federal government. They could face positive pressure as a result of an upgrade of Brazil's sovereign ratings. Downward pressure on Caixa's BCA could materialize if the bank's financial performance deteriorates as a result of an increase in loan losses and aggressive loan growth, which could drain its capital position. Downward pressure on Caixa's deposit ratings could derive from a downgrade of Brazil's sovereign ratings, although highly unlikely at this time considering the positive outlook on that rating. The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks published in November 2024. =============== C O L O M B I A =============== GRUPO NUTRESA: Fitch Rates New USD2BB Sr. Unsecured Notes 'BB+' --------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has assigned Grupo Nutresa S.A.'s (Nutresa) proposed USD2 billion senior unsecured notes a rating of 'BB+'. The proceeds are being used to repay the outstanding USD2 billion bridge loan the majority shareholder used to increase his stake in the company. Grupo Nutresa's Issuer Default Rating already reflects this refinancing. Key Rating Drivers New Bond Issuance: Grupo Nutresa has announced a notes issuance aimed at refinancing the existing USD2 billion bridge loan that was used to fund majority shareholder Jaime Gilinski's acquisition of Nugil S.A.S., which holds 34.81% of Nutresa's shares, resulting in the Gilinsky family having an 84.5% stake in Grupo Nutresa. The bonds will be a senior unsecured obligation of Grupo Nutresa and may be issued in two tranches with different maturities. Pressure on Capital Structure: The recent USD2 billion debt increase pressures the company's credit metrics. Gross leverage, defined as adjusted debt to EBITDAR, is projected to rise to 4.8x, with net leverage reaching 4.5x by YE 2025, up from 2.3x and 1.8x at YE 2024 respectively, considering share repurchases and the Alcora transaction. Fitch believes Nutresa might gradually reduce gross leverage toward 3.0x over the next three to four years, depending on the results from efficiency plans and potential investments. Sound Operating Metrics: Nutresa's historical EBITDAR margins of around 12% are slightly above the regional peer median of 11%. In addition, the company is working on several initiatives to improve profitability, mostly focused on logistics, commercial execution, plant efficiencies, segments restructuration and price adjustments. Fitch projects profitability margins could rise by two percentage points and EBITDAR might reach COP3.1 trillion by YE 2025. Strong Competitive Position: Nutresa has a strong competitive position in Colombia's food industry, generating 60% of 2024 revenue, with a 50% market share. It maintains an almost 50% share in key segments, contributing over 65% of its consolidated EBITDA, before International Financial Reporting Standards' (IFRS) 16 adjustments. This strength is supported by recognized brands, innovation, and an extensive distribution network. Internationally, it ranks first or second in markets like Chile and Mexico, with significant market shares in Instant Cold Beverages. ESG- Governance Structure: Nutresa's majority shareholder's decision to increase its leverage to boost his stake in the company weakens the latter's credit profile and heightens key person risk, reducing the Board of Directors' independence. Fitch believes the Gilinski Group is an experienced and successful business and banking conglomerate that can, at times, pursue business strategies that may not be aligned with the interests of all stakeholders. Peer Analysis Nutresa has a more robust business profile than Alicorp S.A.A. (Alicorp; BBB/Stable) in terms of geographical and product diversification, but higher prospective leverage. Fitch anticipates Nutresa's net leverage to increase to 4.5x in 2025 and for Alicorp to remain in the 2.0x to 2.5x range during the next couple of years. Nutresa has a smaller scale, less diversification of products and brands, and a weaker credit profile when compared to Nestle SA (Nestle; A+/Stable) and Grupo Bimbo, S.A.B. De C.V. (Bimbo; BBB+/Stable). Both Nestle and Bimbo also have a greater geographic presence than Nutresa. Key Assumptions - Average revenue growth of 8.5% over the projection horizon; - Total volume remains stable in 2025 compared to 2024; - Average EBITDA margin of 14.5%, after adjustment for IFRS 16 defined by Fitch, and EBITDAR margin of 15.9%. EBITDA and EBITDAR improve due to the execution of efficiency plans and optimization initiatives; - Capital investment intensity, defined as capital expenditure (capex) to revenue, averages 2.8%; - Dividend payment in line with management's projections. 30% of EBITDAR between 2026 and 2028; - Disbursement of a bridge loan for USD2 billion; - Bridge loan of USD2 billion is refinanced in 2025 with a USD2 billion 144A/Reg S bond offering; - USD2 billion is deposited in a bank as a Certificate of Deposit (CD); - Alcora's capitalization; - Repurchase of 4,580,000 shares at a price of COP130,000; - Average exchange rate of COP4,412 per USD; - Average YE rate of COP4,456 per USD. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade - Dividend distribution or value extraction mechanisms from the company that pressure leverage and makes the free cash flow (FCF) negative on a sustained basis; - Lower than anticipated operating performance, including a decline in the company's revenues and margins; - More aggressive growth policy that includes acquisitions financed mainly with debt; - Net debt to EBITDAR above 4.0x on a sustained basis. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade - Net debt to EBITDAR below 3.0x on a sustained basis; - Increased geographic diversification in investment-grade countries; - FCF margin over 3% on a sustained basis. Liquidity and Debt Structure Fitch projects that by YE 2025, cash and equivalents stand at COP843,000 million and current maturities at COP560,437 million, with a liquidity ratio of 1.5x. Fitch anticipates Nutresa will maintain its financial flexibility in the short to medium term, as the company has debt maturities distributed over time. Nutresa has broad access to the local and international financial and capital markets, which provides it additional liquidity to meet financing needs. Fitch views the USD2 billion held in certificates of deposit in Banco GNB Sudameris, S.A. (BB/Stable), a related party, as restricted cash given that it is securing the shareholders' loan to acquire Nugil S.A.S. Furthermore, as per the offering memorandum, noteholders cannot rely on proceeds from these certificates of deposit as a source of repayment of the notes. Issuer Profile Founded in 1920, Grupo Nutresa S.A. is Colombia's leading processed food company with almost 49,000 employees operating across various units. It holds a strong market position due to its dominant brands and wide distribution network in Latin America. Summary of Financial Adjustments Fitch uses the balance sheet reported lease liability as the capitalized lease value when computing lease equivalent debt. MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items included. ESG Considerations Grupo Nutresa S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Governance Structure and Group Structure due to weak Board independence, ownership concentration and related parties' transactions, which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is highly relevant to the rating, in conjunction with other factors. The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. Entity/Debt Rating ----------- ------ Grupo Nutresa S.A. senior unsecured LT BB+ New Rating =================================== D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C =================================== DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Awaits Timely U.S. Response on Tariff --------------------------------------------------------- Dominican Today reports that the Dominican Republic government is awaiting a response from U.S. authorities following its official request to eliminate the 10% tariff imposed during the Trump administration. Foreign Minister Roberto Alvarez stated that the issue was discussed in a 33-minute meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, where he emphasized that the Dominican Republic has been a cooperative and reliable trade partner, according to Dominican Today. Alvarez noted that Greer acknowledged the 10% tariff was the minimum applied and praised the Dominican Republic's compliance, the report notes. The Dominican government, supported by President Luis Abinader, hopes to resolve the matter within weeks or months through ongoing negotiations, particularly to benefit goods from free trade zones and reinforce respect for the existing Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. and Central America, the report says. About Dominican Republic The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation. S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB' long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Dominican Republic on December 3, 2024. The outlook remains stable. S&P also affirmed its 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings and kept the transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment unchanged at 'BBB-'. Fitch, on November 26, 2024, affirmed the Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-'. The Rating Outlook is Positive. Moody's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last set at Ba3 in August 2023 with the outlook changed to positive. ============= J A M A I C A ============= JAMAICA: Strategic Approach Needed to Address Skilled Migration --------------------------------------------------------------- Radio Jamica News reports that the Planning Institute of Jamaica is urging Caribbean countries to take a more coordinated and strategic approach to the migration of highly skilled professionals from the region because this is both a challenge to and opportunity for the region. According to Radio Jamica, this recommendation was made by Dr. Wayne Henry, Director General of the PIOJ, during a recent World Bank PIOJ Forum on the migration of highly skilled workers from the Caribbean to the USA, Canada and to the UK. About Jamaica Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial and insurance services. On Feb. 21, 2025, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-', with a positive rating outlook. In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has been changed to positive from stable. In September 2024, S&P affirmed 'BB-/B' longterm foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook to positive. PETROJAM: Gov't. Urged to Make Decision on Refinery's Future ------------------------------------------------------------ RJR News reports that trade expert Dr. Andre Gordon says Jamaica's trade data for 2024 is signaling to the government that it needs to focus more on production and exports, particularly agricultural exports and the production of renewable energy. In that vein, Dr. Gordon, Managing Director of Technological Solutions, is urging the government to decide what it will do with the PetroJam Refinery, according to RJR News. That advice comes in light of the fact that the refining and re-exporting of petroleum products dropped by US$370 million last year, the report notes. Petrojam Limited is Jamaica's only petroleum refinery. ===================================== T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O ===================================== TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: US Tariffs Could Pose Economic Threat -------------------------------------------------------- Newsday reports that Trinidad and Tobago's energy exports to the US are facing new challenges following the introduction of US tariffs earlier last month. Newsday relates that the Energy Chamber of TT, in a release on April 22, raised concerns about the potential impact on key commodities such as ammonia, methanol, iron and steel. On April 2, US President Donald Trump announced a sweeping tariff policy, imposing a baseline ten per cent duty on imports from most countries, including TT, recounts the report. While certain energy products like crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) are exempt, other exports such as ammonia, methanol, iron and steel are subject to the new tariffs. Newsday says the US market is significant for TT, the chamber noted, accounting for approximately 30 per cent of its exports. Over 95 per cent of these exports are energy-related commodities. According to Newsday, the chamber warns that the tariffs could make TT's products less competitive, especially since domestic US producers are not subject to these duties. Additionally, countries like Mexico and Canada, operating under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), may have exemptions, potentially further affecting competitiveness. Newsday relates that the chamber said the situation is particularly concerning for ammonia exports. TT is a major supplier of ammonia to the US, accounting for over 40 per cent of its imports. Ammonia markets have remained relatively stable despite the tariffs, but the long-term effects are still in the balance, the report says. "TT's energy sector remains vigilant, monitoring developments and strategising to mitigate potential adverse effects on its exports," the chamber said, notes the report. =============== X X X X X X X X =============== LATAM: Growth Prospects Dim For Region, Says ECLAC -------------------------------------------------- Trinidad Express reports that the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) revised downwards, the growth projection for the region's economies in 2025. According to the new estimates, the United Nations organisation forecasts that the region's economies will grow two per cent on average this year, which is four-tenths lower than what was projected in December 2024, the report notes. By subregion, the downward revision is greater for the Caribbean, where it is eight-tenths lower, excluding Guyana, and for Central America and Mexico, seven-tenths lower than it is for South America, where the downward revision is just one-tenth, according to Trinidad Express. ECLAC said that the growth rates expected given the new revision are 2.5 per cent in South America, one per cent in Central America and Mexico and 1.8 per cent in the Caribbean, excluding Guyana, the report notes. According to ECLAC, the region is facing a very complex and highly uncertain international scenario, the report relays. It said the tariff-related announcements made by the United States not only have direct effects on what the region's countries export to that economy, but they also have indirect effects via greater volatility in international financial markets, with significant fluctuations in stock and bond markets, which has clear implications for the yield of assets and of the interest rate in the United States and for the main global financial markets, the report discloses. "These announcements and the geoeconomic confrontation sparked have increased the risk of severe disruptions in global production chains and in international trade flows. All these factors have prompted a downward revision for growth prospects at a global level and particularly among the region's main trading partners: the United States and China," ECLAC said, the report relays. It noted for example, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April downwardly revised its growth projection for the US from 2.7 per cent, which it had estimated in January, to 1.8 per cent; for the Euro zone, from one to 0.8%, and for China from 4.6 to 4%, the report relays. For the region, this has entailed significant changes to the macro conditions contemplated in ECLAC's last annual economic report, the Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2024, published last December, the report notes. This includes a deceleration in external aggregate demand, which could prompt increased imbalances in external accounts in 2025 beyond what had been anticipated, an increase in exchange-rate volatility, and greater accumulation of international reserves for precautionary purposes, the report discloses. Similarly, a deceleration is expected in domestic aggregate demand, where although private consumption will continue to be the main determinant of regional growth, its pace is expected to continue decreasing, the report relays. ECLAC said investment will show less dynamism than what was contemplated in the Preliminary Overview 2024, in accordance with the prospects for deceleration seen in global trade and particularly among the region's main trading partners, and the greater uncertainty being shown by the global economy, the report says. "Thus, there is an intensification in the region of the major challenge of reversing the path of low economic growth it has shown in the last decade. "Invigorating growth requires a combination of more proactive macroeconomic and productive development policies than those the region has had up to now, increasing investment in physical and human capital, and putting productive development agendas into practice in dynamic driving sectors. "That is why the region not only must invest more, but it also must invest better. This involves adopting new technologies, promoting cluster initiatives and good business practices, fostering deep improvements in the process of capital accumulation, and properly harnessing economies' social and environmental capital," ECLAC said, the report adds. ********* S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman, Editors. Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746. 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