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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Wednesday, January 15, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 11
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
ARGENTINA: Central Bank Poll Predicts 2025 Inflation Rate of 25.9%
ARGENTINA: City Inflation Accelerated Slightly to 3.3% Last Month
ARGENTINA: La Nina Effects Surprise Farmers as Dryness Kicks In
C H I L E
CHILE: Prices Drop in Temporary Blip as Inflation Risks Loom
J A M A I C A
JAMAICA: Sugar Industry on Track to Recover, Says Minister
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A R G E N T I N A
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ARGENTINA: Central Bank Poll Predicts 2025 Inflation Rate of 25.9%
------------------------------------------------------------------
Buenos Aires Times reports consultants, experts and banking
institutions participating in the Central Bank's REM (Relevamiento
de Expectativas del Mercado) survey project that Argentina's
inflation rate for 2024 will be 117.8 percent.
This REM survey, which includes the updated projections of the main
analysts of the City financial district, also shows that experts
expect a massive slowdown to just under 26 percent this year,
according to Buenos Aires Times.
What Will Inflation be in 2025?
A strong deceleration of the IPC (Indice de Precios al Consumidor)
index to 25.9 percent is expected for 2025, the report relays.
What is The Projection For Last Month?
This will be officially announced by INDEC national statistics
bureau with the estimates falling from 2.9 to 2.7 percent, the
report discloses.
What is Expected for the Early Months of 2025?
Along the same lines, the projections will keep descending in the
first five months of 2025 with the IPC only falling below the two
percent monthly barrier in May, the report says.
What are the expectations for price increases this year in
comparison with last year?
The price increases for this year have shrunk 3.5 percentage points
in comparison with the previous publication, the report adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a new
30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina
in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion,
or 1000 percent of quota). The IMF Executive Board's decision
allowed the authorities an immediate disbursement of an equivalent
of US$9.65 billion in March 2022.
Argentina's IMF-supported program seeks to improve public finances
and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a
multi-pronged strategy, involving a gradual elimination of monetary
financing of the fiscal deficit and enhancements in the monetary
policy framework.
In June 2024, the IMF Board completed an eighth review of the
Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for
Argentina. The IMF Board's decision enabled a disbursement of
around US$800 million to support the authorities' efforts to
entrench the disinflation process, rebuild fiscal and external
buffers, and underpin the recovery.
On Nov. 15, 2024, Fitch Ratings has upgraded Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC' from 'CC',
and its Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to 'CCC' from 'CCC-'.
Argentina's upgrade to 'CCC' from 'CC' reflects developments that
have improved Fitch's confidence in the authorities' ability to
make upcoming foreign-currency bond payments without seeking relief
of some sort.
S&P, in March 2024, raised its local currency sovereign credit
ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and its national scale
rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign
currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from 'CCC-' and affirmed
its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The S&P ratings have
been affirmed as of August 2024. S&P said the stable outlook on
the long-term ratings balances the risks posed by pronounced
economic imbalances and other uncertainties with recent progress in
making fiscal adjustments, reducing inflation, and undertaking
structural reforms to address long-standing microeconomic
weaknesses that have contributed to poor economic performance for
many years that it would likely consider to be distressed.
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local
Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC on November 25, 2024.
The trend on all ratings is Stable.
ARGENTINA: City Inflation Accelerated Slightly to 3.3% Last Month
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Buenos Aires Times reports inflation accelerated slightly in
Argentina's capital last month, with consumer prices up 3.3 percent
due to increases in services.
December's rate was a rise of 0.1 points from November's 3.2
percent, according to Buenos Aires Times. Goods increased by 1.9
percent, with services rising 4.2 percent, the report notes.
Data from City Hall reveals that consumer prices rose 136.7 percent
in Buenos Aires City in 2024, the report relays.
Last month's figure, something to watch for President Javier
Milei's national government, ran contrary to the expectations of
most private analysts, who had predicted a continuing consumer
price slowdown in the last month of the year, the report notes.
Analysts are waiting for the official national figure next because
if it is below 2.5 percent, the Milei government is expected to
lower the crawling peg from two percent to one percent, with an
accompanying interest rate cut from the Central Bank, the report
discloses.
Monthly hikes in Buenos Aires were led by rises for insurance and
financial services, restaurants and hotels and alcoholic beverages
and tobacco, the report says.
Food items rose 2.3 percent last month, contributing 0.42 points to
the overall index, the report relays. The main increases came from
meat and meat products (7.6 percent) and milk, dairy products and
eggs (2.1 percent), the report notes.
Meanwhile, housing maintenance recorded a rise of 3.9 percent,
contributing 0.75 points to the overall level, the report
discloses.
This increase was impacted by rises in the values of common housing
costs and rent, the report says.
Transport registered a rise of 3.5 percent due to increases in the
prices of airline tickets, fuel and lubricants for household
vehicles, the report relays.
Health expenditure rose by 3.7 percent, due to adjustments in
prepaid medical care, the report notes. Information and
telecommunications rose 4.3 percent, the report adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank.
Historically, however, its economic performance has been very
uneven, with high economic growth alternating with severe
recessions, income maldistribution and in the recent decades,
increasing poverty.
In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a new
30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina
in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion,
or 1000 percent of quota). The IMF Executive Board's decision
allowed the authorities an immediate disbursement of an equivalent
of US$9.65 billion in March 2022.
Argentina's IMF-supported program seeks to improve public finances
and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a
multi-pronged strategy, involving a gradual elimination of monetary
financing of the fiscal deficit and enhancements in the monetary
policy framework.
In June 2024, the IMF Board completed an eighth review of the
Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for
Argentina. The IMF Board's decision enabled a disbursement of
around US$800 million to support the authorities' efforts to
entrench the disinflation process, rebuild fiscal and external
buffers, and underpin the recovery.
On Nov. 15, 2024, Fitch Ratings has upgraded Argentina's
Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC'
from 'CC', and its Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to 'CCC' from
'CCC-'. Argentina's upgrade to 'CCC' from 'CC' reflects
developments that have improved Fitch's confidence in the
authorities' ability to make upcoming foreign-currency bond
payments without seeking relief of some sort.
S&P, in March 2024, raised its local currency sovereign credit
ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and its national scale
rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign
currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from 'CCC-' and affirmed
its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The S&P ratings have
been affirmed as of August 2024. S&P said the stable outlook on
the long-term ratings balances the risks posed by pronounced
economic imbalances and other uncertainties with recent progress in
making fiscal adjustments, reducing inflation, and undertaking
structural reforms to address long-standing microeconomic
weaknesses that have contributed to poor economic performance for
many years that it would likely consider to be distressed.
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local
Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC on November 25, 2024.
The trend on all ratings is Stable.
ARGENTINA: La Nina Effects Surprise Farmers as Dryness Kicks In
---------------------------------------------------------------
Buenos Aires Times reports reports that a La Nina weather pattern
that wreaked havoc on Argentina's farms just two years ago was
expected to be kinder this time around. But as the growing season
gets under way, a long bout of dry weather is emerging again,
according to Buenos Aires Times.
Growers are struggling with an incipient drought and need rain in
the coming weeks to avoid losses to soybean and corn crops, the
report notes. La Nina, which typically brings dryness to
Argentina, is suddenly on the lips of farmers across the prime
growing belt, the report relays.
"All I'm reading in the messaging groups are cries for water," said
Francisco Perkins, a grower in Pehuajo, the report discloses. "It
could get ugly," he added.
La Nina is a serious issue in Argentina, the world's number
provider of processed soy meal and oil, the report notes. The
nation's soy crop was devastated by a La Nina-fuelled drought
during the 2022-2023 season, slashing the harvest to the smallest
since the turn of the century, the report says.
The report discloses that the weather pattern is returning this
season just as growers grapple with a poor economic backdrop,
including low prices and a strong local currency. That's pushed
down their profit margins to lows not seen in a decade, according
to a research report by Buenos Aires brokerage house Latin
Securities, the report notes.
Tighter agricultural harvests also may hurt President Javier
Milei's bid for a sustained rebound in the economy, the report
says.
Plants on the Pampas are already off to a poor start, the report
relays. The soybean crop is harvested in the second quarter and
requires rain in January and February to perform well, the report
notes.
"Over spring and the first days of summer, La Nina has begun to
make itself felt, producing water deficits across a large part of
the farming region," Eduardo Sierra, a climatologist with the
Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, wrote in a report, Buenos Aires Times
says.
The forecasts aren't good. Weather maps published by Sierra predict
lower-than-average rainfall through March, the report discloses.
"The expectation is for spotty rains, which would affect crop
growth in key areas," Cecilia Conde, the bourse's chief estimates
analyst, said in a phone message, the report relays. To be sure,
she said, several corners of the Pampas are OK, the report notes.
The Rosario Board of Trade, which tends to be quicker than its
rivals in revising crop figures, is scheduled to publish its
monthly estimates report, Buenos Aires Times notes. Its current
forecast is for between 53 million and 53.5 million metric tons,
the report says.
"Soy and corn are doing relatively well for now," said Santiago
Fernandez de Maussion, a farmer in Jesus Maria, Cordoba Province.
"I hope the drought doesn't come up this way," the report adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
In March 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a new
30-month arrangement under an Extended Fund Facility for Argentina
in the amount of SDR 31.914 billion (equivalent to US$44 billion,
or 1000 percent of quota). The IMF Executive Board's decision
allowed the authorities an immediate disbursement of an equivalent
of US$9.65 billion in March 2022.
Argentina's IMF-supported program seeks to improve public finances
and start to reduce persistent high inflation through a
multi-pronged strategy, involving a gradual elimination of monetary
financing of the fiscal deficit and enhancements in the monetary
policy framework.
In June 2024, the IMF Board completed an eighth review of the
Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for
Argentina. The IMF Board's decision enabled a disbursement of
around US$800 million to support the authorities' efforts to
entrench the disinflation process, rebuild fiscal and external
buffers, and underpin the recovery.
On Nov. 15, 2024, Fitch Ratings has upgraded Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC' from 'CC',
and its Long-Term Local-Currency IDR to 'CCC' from 'CCC-'.
Argentina's upgrade to 'CCC' from 'CC' reflects developments that
have improved Fitch's confidence in the authorities' ability to
make upcoming foreign-currency bond payments without seeking relief
of some sort.
S&P, in March 2024, raised its local currency sovereign credit
ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and its national scale
rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its long-term foreign
currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from 'CCC-' and affirmed
its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The S&P ratings have
been affirmed as of August 2024. S&P said the stable outlook on
the long-term ratings balances the risks posed by pronounced
economic imbalances and other uncertainties with recent progress in
making fiscal adjustments, reducing inflation, and undertaking
structural reforms to address long-standing microeconomic
weaknesses that have contributed to poor economic performance for
many years that it would likely consider to be distressed.
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign and Local
Currency Issuer Ratings to B (low) from CCC on November 25, 2024.
The trend on all ratings is Stable.
=========
C H I L E
=========
CHILE: Prices Drop in Temporary Blip as Inflation Risks Loom
------------------------------------------------------------
globalinsolvency.com, citing Bloomberg News, reports that Chile's
consumer prices fell last month for the first time since June,
giving the central bank only limited relief as it monitors
inflationary threats including higher electricity tariffs and a
weak currency.
Prices fell 0.2% in December, below all forecasts in a Bloomberg
survey of analysts that had a median estimate of no change,
according to globalinsolvency.com.
Annual inflation accelerated to 4.5%, the national statistics
institute reported, globalinsolvency.com says. Central bankers led
by Rosanna Costa have cut borrowing costs by 6.25 percentage points
since mid-2023 to the current level of 5%, the report adds.
=============
J A M A I C A
=============
JAMAICA: Sugar Industry on Track to Recover, Says Minister
----------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that Jamaica's Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining
Minister Floyd Green says the floundering sugar industry is on
track to recover.
Speaking while on a recent tour of the Pan Caribbean Sugar Factory,
he said now is an exciting time for the industry as more farmers
and companies are requesting land to increase sugarcane production,
according to RJR News.
Minister Green also cited the US$1 million investment by Pan
Caribbean Sugar Company to acquire harvesting equipment as a
positive development for sugar production, the report adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea. Jamaica
is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily dependent
on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy include
agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining, financial
and insurance services.
In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's
long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and
senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has
been changed to positive from stable. In September 2023, S&P
Global Ratings raised its long-term foreign and local currency
sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to 'BB-' from 'B+', and
affirmed its short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit
ratings at 'B', with a stable outlook. In September 2024, S&P
affirmed 'BB-/B' sovereign ratings on Jamaica and revised outlook
to positive. In March 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's
Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'.
The Rating Outlook is Stable.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.
Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746.
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of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
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