/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/240405.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Friday, April 5, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 70
Headlines
B R A Z I L
ATLAS LITHIUM: Board Appoints Brian Talbot as Director and COO
BRAZIL: Macron Slams EU-Mercosur Deal, Proposes New One
DEXCO SA: Fitch Lowers LongTerm IDR to 'BB', Outlook Stable
JBS SA: Rosen Law Continues to Probe Potential Securities Claims
NATURA & CO: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDR to 'BB+', Outlook Stable
TRAFIGURA GROUP: Admits to a Decade of Bribery in Brazil
C A Y M A N I S L A N D S
KUWAIT FINANCE: Fitch Affirms 'BB+(xgs)/B(xgs)' IDRs
C H I L E
INVERSIONES LATIN: Fitch Assigns 'BB' Rating to Sr. Secured Notes
WOM S.A.: Case Summary & 30 Largest Unsecured Creditors
WOM S.A.: Enters Chap. 11 With $210MM DIP Financing From JPMorgan
WOM S.A.: JPMorgan Deal, Easter Call Were Last Steps Before Ch. 11
C O L O M B I A
COLOMBIA: IMF Says Economy to Transition Toward Sustainable Level
E C U A D O R
ECUADOR: 17K Farmers on Verge of Bankruptcy Due to Lack of Water
M E X I C O
FORTALEZA MATERIALES: Fitch Ups IDRs to 'BB+' Then Withdraws Rating
TOTAL PLAY: Moody's Rates New $361.5MM Sr. Secured Notes 'Caa1'
P A N A M A
PANAMA: Fitch Lowers LongTerm IDR to 'BB+', Outlook Stable
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
CL FINANCIAL: CLICO Credit Union Launches Youth Arm
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B R A Z I L
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ATLAS LITHIUM: Board Appoints Brian Talbot as Director and COO
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Atlas Lithium Corporation disclosed in a Form 8-K filed with the
Securities and Exchange Commission that on March 19, 2024, in
accordance with the applicable provisions of the Company's second
amended and restated bylaws, the Board of Directors of the Company
increased the number of directors of the Company from four to five
and appointed Brian Talbot to serve as director on the Board,
effective as of April 1, 2024.
In addition to joining the Board, Mr. Talbot was also appointed by
the Board to the office of Chief Operating Officer of the Company,
effective as of April 1, 2024. In his capacity as COO, Mr. Talbot
will be responsible for both the Company's development of its
lithium mine and processing plant as well as the entirety of its
lithium exploration program. Mr. Talbot is a qualified person for
lithium as such term is defined in Item 1300 of Regulation S-K.
Mr. Talbot, age 51, has an extensive track record as a technical
and operational leader throughout his career with over 30 years of
experience in mining operations. In particular, he has extensive
experience in DMS (dense media separation) plant development and
operation. Most recently, Mr. Talbot was employed by RTEK
International DMCC, a consulting firm which he co-founded and that
advises lithium developers and producers. From July 2022 to
September 2023, Mr. Talbot was the chief operating officer at Sigma
Lithium Corporation, a Canadian lithium producer with operations in
Brazil. At Sigma Lithium, he oversaw the development of that
company's flagship Grota do Cirilo hard-rock lithium project from
construction through commissioning and operations. From 2017 to
2022, Mr. Talbot held positions as General Manager and Head of
Australian Operations at Galaxy Resources, now part of Arcadium
Lithium PLC, one of the world's largest fully integrated lithium
companies. While at Galaxy Resources, Mr. Talbot was instrumental
in increasing the production at Mt. Cattlin (a hard-rock lithium
mine in Ravensthorpe, Western Australia) which resulted in record
production. From 2015 to 2017, Mr. Talbot was at Bikita Minerals
in Zimbabwe, which owns and operates the longest running hard-rock
lithium mine in the world. Mr. Talbot holds a bachelor's degree in
chemical engineering with Honors from the University of
Witwatersrand, South Africa.
Mr. Talbot has no family relationship with any director or
executive officer of the Company. The Company entered into a
Technical Services Agreement, dated July 17, 2023, with RTEK,
pursuant to which RTEK was retained by the Company to provide
consulting services and in connection therewith, the Company has
paid to RTEK approximately $1,449,000.
In connection with Mr. Talbot's appointment as COO and as director,
the Compensation Committee of the Board recommended, and the Board
subsequently approved, compensation to Mr. Talbot consisting of (I)
a monthly salary of $55,000 and (ii) the following equity awards,
which will be granted pursuant to the Company's 2023 Stock
Incentive Plan:
A. 75,000 shares of the Company's common stock, par value $0.01
per share, which shares shall be immediately vested as of the date
of grant on the effective date of Mr. Talbot's appointment.
B. 10,000 time-based restricted stock units ("RSUs"), which shall
vest monthly in six equal installments, beginning the first month
after the Start Date.
C. 50,000 performance-based RSUs, which shall vest on the delivery
of the Definitive Feasibility Study of the Company's Neves lithium
project.
Each RSU entitles Mr. Talbot to one share of the Company's Common
Stock upon vesting, and any unvested RSUs shall immediately vest in
the event of a change in control (as such term is defined in the
Plan).
The Company and Mr. Talbot intend to enter into an employment
agreement that will contain confidentiality, indemnification, and
other provisions.
About Atlas Lithium
Atlas Lithium Corporations formerly Brazil Minerals, Inc. is a
mineral exploration and development company with lithium projects
and exploration properties in other critical and battery minerals,
including nickel, rare earths, graphite, and titanium, to power the
increased demand for electrification. The Company's current focus
is on developing its hard-rock lithium project located in Minas
Gerais State in Brazil at a well-known, premier pegmatitic district
in Brazil. The Company intends to produce and sell lithium
concentrate, a key ingredient for the global battery supply chain.
Atlas Lithium reported a net loss of $5.66 million in 2022, a net
loss of $4.03 million in 2021, a net loss of $1.55 million in 2020,
a net loss of $2.08 million in 2019, a net loss of $1.85 million in
2018, a net loss of $1.89 million in 2017, a net loss of $1.74
million in 2016, and a net loss of $1.88 million in 2015. For the
nine months ended Sept. 30, 2023, the Company reported a net loss
of $25.60 million.
Atlas Lithium stated in its Quarterly Report for the period ended
Sept. 30, 2023, that its future short- and long-term capital
requirements will depend on several factors, including but not
limited to, the rate of the Company's growth, the Company's
ability to identify areas for mineral exploration and the economic
potential of such areas, the exploration and other drilling
campaigns needed to verify and expand the Company's mineral
resources, the types of processing facilities the Company would
need to install to obtain commercial-ready products, and the
ability to attract talent to manage the Company's different
business activities. To the extent that its current resources are
insufficient to satisfy its cash requirements, the Company may
need to seek additional equity or debt financing. If the needed
financing is not available, or if the terms of financing are less
desirable than it expects, it may be forced to scale back its
existing operations and growth plans, which could have an adverse
impact on its business and financial prospects and could raise
substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.
BRAZIL: Macron Slams EU-Mercosur Deal, Proposes New One
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Buenos Aires Times reports French President Emmanuel Macron has
dismissed the free-trade agreement negotiated between Mercosur and
the European Union (EU) and proposed ditching it for a "new one."
The remarks, delivered on the second day of the French leader's
visit to Brazil, are the clearest sign yet that the accord - which
took some two decades to negotiate - is off the table, according to
Buenos Aires Times.
The EU-Mercosur agreement "as is currently being negotiated is very
bad for us and for you," Macron said at an economic forum event in
Sao Paulo, according to Buenos Aires Times.
The pact, talks over which began in 1999, would see the elimination
of many tariffs between both areas, creating a commercial market of
over 700 million consumers, the report notes.
Yet, the deal has yet to be ratified by parliaments on both sides
of the Atlantic and has been heavily criticized by French farmers,
the report relays. There is also reluctance within the European
Commission to sign off on it, the report says.
"That agreement has nothing taking into account biodiversity and
climate. Nothing! That's why I say it's not good at all," stressed
Macron before an auditorium packed with Brazilian business people,
the report notes.
The French leader called for the construction of another agreement
between the EU and Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay
and Bolivia) that concentrates more on environmental issues, the
report discloses.
"We've been negotiating with Mercosur for 20 years now. Let's make
a new agreement . . . that is responsible from a point of view of
development, climate and biodiversity," insisted Macron, the report
relays.
After agreeing the terms of a deal in 2019, the opposition of
several countries - including France - and the agricultural lobby
in Europe has blocked its adoption, the report notes.
Some influential European nations, such as Germany and Spain,
advocate for its inclusion into law, the report discloses.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is also enthusiastic
about the free-trade agreement, the report relays. Earlier this
month, during a visit by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, he
said was optimistic about closing it, the report says.
Submarine Launch
Macron stopped in Sao Paulo, Brazi's financial capital, after
spending the morning with Lula near Rio de Janeiro to inaugurate a
new Brazilian-French submarine, the report notes. Both leaders
talked up the strategic association between their two countries,
the report relates.
The conventionally powered "Tonelero" submarine, manufactured with
the cooperation of France at the naval shipyard in Itaguaí, was
christened with a bottle of sparkling wine by the Brazilian First
Lady Rosangela da Silva, Janja, the report discloses.
Both Lula and Macron underlined the importance of that association
in a world marked by wars and global disruption, the report notes.
"It will help two major countries . . . prepare for cohabitation
with that diversity without worrying about any kind of war, because
we're defenders of peace," Lula said, the report discloses.
The "Tonelero" is the third of four conventionally powered
Scorpenes within Prosub, a US$7.2-billion programme to develop
Brazilian submarines and their industry, the report relays. The
"Angostura," the latest of these examples aimed at the protection
of the 8,500 km of coast of the Latin American giant, should be
launched into the sea in 2025, the report notes.
Brazil's agreement with France, which dates all the way back to
2008, also includes a fifth submarine, which would be the first
nuclear powered one in the South American nation's history, the
report relates.
"I want us to open a new chapter for new submarines . . . to look
at nuclear power face to face while being perfectly respectful of
all non-proliferation commitments," said Macron, the report
discloses.
"France will be with you," the French leader declared to Lula.
Brasilia wants to convince Paris to increase its transfer of
technology to incorporate the reactor and for it to sell equipment
linked with nuclear power (turbine, generator), the report says.
"If Brazil wants to access nuclear technology know-how, it's not to
wage war. We want it to ensure to all countries which want peace
that Brazil will be by their side", Lula stated, the report notes.
The first day of the visit, Macron and Lula announced a program to
raise EUR1 billion (US$1.08 billion) to invest in sustainable
economy projects in the Brazilian and French-Guiana Amazon, the
report relates.
France is the third-largest investor in Brazil, with nearly US$38
billion engaged, according to data from the Brazilian government,
the report notes.
Macron will meet Lula once again in Brasilia, on the last day of
his official visit to the South American giant, the report adds.
About Brazil
Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022 Brazilian
general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as the 39th
president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.
S&P Global Ratings raised on Dec. 19, 2023, its long-term global
scale ratings on Brazil to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook on the
long-term ratings is stable. S&P affirmed Brazil's global scale
short-term ratings at 'B' and its national scale long-term rating
at 'brAAA'. S&P also raised the transfer and convertibility
assessment on the country to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. S&P said, "The
stable outlook reflects our expectation that Brazil will maintain a
strong external position, thanks to strong commodity output and
limited external financing needs. We also believe Brazil's
institutional framework can sustain stable and pragmatic
policymaking based on extensive checks and balances across the
executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government. We
expect a very gradual fiscal correction but anticipate fiscal
deficits will remain large."
Fitch Ratings affirmed on Dec. 15, 2023, Brazil's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with a Stable
Outlook. Fitch said Brazil's ratings are supported by its large and
diverse economy, high per-capita income, and deep domestic markets
and a large cash cushion that support the sovereign's financing
flexibility and its high local-currency debt share. Strong external
finances support resilience to shocks, underpinned by a flexible
exchange rate, robust international reserves and a sovereign net
external creditor position. The ratings are constrained by weak
economic growth potential, relatively low governance scores, high
and rising government debt/GDP, and budgetary rigidities. A new
fiscal framework introduced this year aims to anchor a gradual
consolidation process and address these fiscal weaknesses, but its
effectiveness is increasingly unclear.
Moody's credit rating for Brazil was last set at Ba2 in 2018 with
stable outlook. Moody's affirmed the Ba2 issuer ratings and
senior unsecured bond ratings in April 2022.
DBRS Inc., on August 15, 2023, upgraded Brazil's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings to BB from BB (low).
At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed Brazil's
Short-term Foreign and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings at R-4.
The trend on all ratings is Stable (March 2018).
DEXCO SA: Fitch Lowers LongTerm IDR to 'BB', Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Dexco S.A.'s Long-Term Foreign
Currency (FC) and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to
'BB', from 'BB+'. Fitch has also affirmed Dexco's National Scale
long-term rating at 'AAA(bra)'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.
The downgrade reflects Dexco's weaker than expected operating
margins and cash flow generation, pressured by the deterioration of
the finishing division during the last two years amid an aggressive
capex cycle. Dexco's business profile is more volatile than
previously expected, with market share loss, and the pace of
recovery of volume and profitability in metals and sanitary wares
and tiles segments is still uncertain. Dexco's net leverage should
remain close to 3.5x until the end-2025, which was not commensurate
with the previous rating and the volatile nature of its business.
Dexco's ratings continue to reflect its strong business position in
the Brazilian wood panel and building materials industries, and its
commitment to preserve robust liquidity. The National Scale
long-term rating considers Dexco's strong financial flexibility,
that is enhanced by the company's multiple access to financing,
potential sale of forestry assets, if necessary, and a BRL750
million unused revolving credit facility.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Downturn in Finishing Division: Dexco's finishing division
performance was pressured by the confluence of challenging market
conditions for building products and internal issues that resulted
in market share loss and significant profitability deterioration.
Sales volumes decreased by 18% in metals and sanitary wares and 21%
in tiles in 2023, while EBITDA of the division was negative BRL8
million. The company implemented several measures to recover
profitability, but the turnaround speed remains unclear. Fitch's
base-case incorporates a gradual recovery, with BRL170 million of
EBITDA in 2024 and BRL355 million in 2025, still below historical
average. Finishing division represents about 35% to 40% of total
revenue.
Strong Business Position in Wood Panel: Dexco's rating are
underpinned by its prominent position in the wood panel division
that continues to sustain cash flow generation. The company's large
operating scale and wood self-sufficiency are key competitive
advantages that are difficult to be replicated. Dexco is the
largest Brazilian wood panel producer, with estimated capacity
share of 33%. This segment generated EBITDA of BRL1.4 billion in
2023, supported by the sale of raw wood that benefited from the
shortage in local market, and Fitch projects EBITDA of
approximately BRL1.3 billion in the medium-term, sustained by the
mature stage of the business. The accounting value of Dexco's
biological assets was BRL2.5 billion as of Dec. 31, 2023.
Capex Program Pressures FCF: Base case projections considered
elevated investments of BRL3.8 billion in 2024/2026 and dividends
at 30% of net income, resulting in negative FCF in the next three
years. Dexco should generate BRL1.4 billion of EBITDA and BRL840
million of CFFO in 2024, and BRL1.6 billion and BRL1 billion,
respectively, in 2025. This compares with BRL1.3 billion of EBITDA
in 2023 and about BRL2 billion annually previous expected for
2024/2025. EBITDA margins should remain between 18% to 21%. FCF is
projected to be negative at BRL780 million in 2024 and BRL325
million in 2025. Dexco remains challenged to capture additional
cash generation from its capex cycle.
Increased Leverage: Fitch expects Dexco's net debt to EBITDA ratio
of 3.6x in 2024 and 3.3x in 2025, compared with 3.2x in 2023 and a
track record of below 2.5x until 2022. High investments and weaker
operating cash flow resulted in higher indebtedness. Net debt
increased to BRL4.3 billion at YE 2023, from BRL2.4 billion at YE
2021. Net debt is expected to further increase to BRL5.1 billion by
YE 2024.
Joint Venture (JV) Off-Balance Sheet Debt: Dexco's 49% stake in
dissolving pulp producer LD Celulose diversifies its business model
and will contribute to a dividends flow in hard currency in the
long term. LD Celulose has annual production capacity of 500,000
tons of dissolving pulp and generated EBITDA of BRL1.25 billion
(USD250 million) in 2023.
Fitch's rating case does not incorporate dividends inflow in the
next four years. Fitch included BRL2.8 billion of off-balance sheet
debt from LD Celulose guaranteed by Dexco at YE 2023 on adjusted
leverage metrics. Conversely, a scenario in which Dexco has to
honor off-balance debt is unlikely. Considering off-balance sheet
debt, net adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio should remain high, at 5.3x
in 2024 and 4.5x in 2025.
DERIVATION SUMMARY
Dexco has a weaker business risk profile than its Latin American
pulp & paper peers Celulosa Arauco y Constitucion S.A. (FC IDR
BBB/Stable), Empresas CMPC (FC IDR BBB/Stable), Klabin S.A. (FC IDR
BB+/Stable) and Suzano S.A. (FC IDR BBB-/Stable). These peers all
have greater operating scale, strong revenue flow from the pulp
division and a more export-oriented business profile. Dexco, on the
other hand, is more exposed to demand from the local market than
its peers, which makes it more vulnerable to the domestic
macroeconomic conditions. Liquidity is historically strong for
these issuers, and Dexco has proved access to debt and capital
markets.
Dexco's rating equals Eldorado Brasil Celulose S.A. (FC IDR
BB/Stable), despite Eldorado's deleveraged capital structure, as
the company has only one pulp mill and is therefore more exposed to
the cyclicality of pulp prices compared with companies with higher
product diversification.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within the Rating Case for the Issuer:
- Wood sales volume of 2.9 million cubic meters in 2024 and in
2025, annually;
- Deca division sales volume between 16 million items to 20 million
items in 2024 and 2025;
- Ceramic tiles sales volume of 18 million sqm in 2024 and 21
million sqm in 2025;
- Investments of BRL3.8 billion during 2024-2026;
- Dividends limited to 30% of net income.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Consistent turnaround of the finishing division on a sustainable
basis, with maintenance of solid performance in the wood division;
- Net debt/EBITDA ratio recurrently below 2.5x;
- Ability to reduce net debt.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Net debt/EBITDA ratio recurrently above 3.5x;
- Inability to recover profitability in the finishing division
and/or adverse environment in the wood division, resulting in
EBITDA margin below 18% and/or cash flow generation below its
estimates;
- Material capital injections or additional debt guarantees at the
JV LD Celulose.
LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE
Strong Liquidity: Dexco has historically maintained strong cash
reserves and an extended debt amortization profile. At YE 2023,
Dexco had BRL2.8 billion of cash and marketable securities,
benefited by the issuance of BRL1.5 billion in CRAs in Oct. 2023,
and BRL7.1 billion of total debt (excluding off-balance debt). The
company's current cash position plus its BRL750 million of unused
RCF cover debt maturities up to the end 2026, of BRL3.2 billion.
Dexco enjoys strong access to both the debt and equity markets.
Financial flexibility is further enhanced by the potential sale of
forestry assets and/or less strategic assets, if necessary. The
accounting value of Dexco's biological assets was BRL2.5 billion as
of Dec. 31, 2023. Debt is denominated in local currency with a
competitive cost.
ISSUER PROFILE
Dexco is the leading wood panel producer in Brazil, with 3.5
million cubic meters of annual domestic production and 0.2 million
cubic meters in Colombia. Dexco is also one of the largest
producers of sanitary ware and metals in Brazil and one of the main
ceramic tile producers.
SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS
- Fitch excludes from EBITDA: asset impairment, results from asset
sale, biological asset's fair value variation and impact from
business restructuring.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
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Dexco S.A. LT IDR BB Downgrade BB+
LC LT IDR BB Downgrade BB+
Natl LT AAA(bra)Affirmed AAA(bra)
JBS SA: Rosen Law Continues to Probe Potential Securities Claims
----------------------------------------------------------------
Rosen Law Firm, a global investor rights law firm, continues to
investigate potential securities claims on behalf of shareholders
of JBS S.A. (OTC: JBSAY) resulting from allegations that JBS may
have issued materially misleading business information to the
investing public.
SO WHAT: If you purchased JBS securities you may be entitled to
compensation without payment of any out of pocket fees or costs
through a contingency fee arrangement. The Rosen Law Firm is
preparing a class action seeking recovery of investor losses.
WHAT TO DO NEXT: To join the prospective class action, go to
https://rosenlegal.com/submit-form/?case_id=22976 or call Phillip
Kim, Esq. toll-free at 866-767-3653 or email case@rosenlegal.com
for information on the class action.
WHAT IS THIS ABOUT: On February 28, 2024, Reuters published an
article entitled "New York sues meatpacking giant JBS over climate
claims." The article stated, in pertinent part, that "JBS, the
world's largest beef producer, was sued by New York state's
attorney general, which accused it of misleading the public about
its impact on the environment in order to boost sales. Attorney
General Letitia James said JBS USA Food Co, the Brazilian company's
American-based unit, has "no viable plan" to reach net zero
greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, making its stated commitment to
achieving that goal false and misleading."
On this news, JBS' American Depositary Receipts ("ADRs") fell $0.22
per ADR, or 2.4%, to close at $9.02 per ADR on February 28, 2024.
WHY ROSEN LAW: We encourage investors to select qualified counsel
with a track record of success in leadership roles. Often, firms
issuing notices do not have comparable experience, resources, or
any meaningful peer recognition. Many of these firms do not
actually litigate securities class actions. Be wise in selecting
counsel. The Rosen Law Firm represents investors throughout the
globe, concentrating its practice in securities class actions and
shareholder derivative litigation. Rosen Law Firm has achieved the
largest ever securities class action settlement against a Chinese
Company. Rosen Law Firm was Ranked No. 1 by ISS Securities Class
Action Services for number of securities class action settlements
in 2017. The firm has been ranked in the top 4 each year since 2013
and has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for investors. In
2019 alone the firm secured over $438 million for investors. In
2020, founding partner Laurence Rosen was named by law360 as a
Titan of Plaintiffs' Bar. Many of the firm's attorneys have been
recognized by Lawdragon and Super Lawyers.
About JBS SA
As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in
August 2021, S&P Global Ratings revised the global scale outlook on
JBS S.A. (JBS) and its fully owned subsidiary JBS USA Lux S.A. (JBS
USA) to positive from stable and affirmed its 'BB+' issuer credit
rating. The recovery expectations remain unchanged, and S&P
affirmed the 'BB+' ratings on the senior unsecured notes and the
'BBB' ratings on the secured term loans.
NATURA & CO: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDR to 'BB+', Outlook Stable
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Natura &Co Holding S.A. (Natura) and
Natura Cosmeticos S.A.'s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency
Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'BB+' from 'BB' and National Scale
Rating to 'AAA(bra) from 'AA+(bra)'. Fitch has also upgraded
Natura&Co Luxembourg Holdings S.a.r.l's unsecured notes to 'BB+'
from 'BB'. In addition, Fitch has affirmed Avon Products, Inc. and
its unsecured notes at 'BB'. Rating Outlook is Stable.
The upgrades reflect Natura's sustainably conservative capital
structure, following the past year of asset sales, and its strategy
to streamline operations. The company has raised USD2.6 billion in
asset sale and effectively paid down 55% of its debt (around BRL7.6
billion). The stronger financial profile and financial flexibility
better positioned the company to navigate current challenges, like
the completion of Avon's turnaround and the profitability rebound
at Natura Latam, its core operation. The net adjusted leverage
ratio, which is stronger for the rating category, is expected to
remain below 1.5x in the medium to long term.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Robust Capital Structure: Fitch expects Natura to maintain a strong
capital structure in the next few years, while it completes its
Wave 2 Project focusing on improving its profitability, as well as
managing Avon International's challenges and shareholders returns.
Fitch estimates Natura's 2024 total and net adjusted leverage
ratios, including rental obligations per Fitch's criteria, to be
2.6x and 0.6x, respectively, and around 2.3x and 0.4x on average
for the next two subsequent years. This represents a significant
improvement from a median net and total leverage ratio of 4.2x and
2.8x during the 2019-2022 period.
During 2023, Natura completed the sale of Aesop for USD2.525
billion, with resources received during 3Q23. Natura used a large
part of this cash inflow to retire around BRL7.6 billion of debt
and to paydown interests and derivatives settlements. At the end of
FY 2023, total and net adjusted leverage ratios were 3.0x and 0.1x,
respectively.
Return to Latin America Business Focused: Following the asset sales
of Aesop and The Body Shop (4Q23), Natura is looking to simplifying
its operations and focus on its core business (brands) and markets
(Brazil and Latin America). During 2022, Aesop and The Body Shop
(TBS) contributed around 17% and 12% of consolidated EBITDA. During
2019-2021, TBS contributed with on average 22% to the consolidated
EBITDA, but operations dropped significantly over the last few
years.
On proforma basis, Natura's FY 2023 revenue outside Latin America
has declined to 26%, which compares to 47% in 2020, just after
Avon's acquisition, and 37% in 2019 when it still had Aesop and The
TBS operations. Natura has a solid business position in Brazil and
Latin America, with a strong brand and product portfolio. Natura
has also announced that it is studying a potential separation of
Natura&Co and Avon. There is still limited visibility on this
strategy; however, Fitch does not expect any major impact on
Natura's business profile or ratings following a potential
spin-off, considering the capital structure remains solid.
Ongoing Execution Risk: Natura continues to face challenges of
turning around Avon's international operations. The operations in
Latin America have advanced relatively better there was some fit
with Natura's operations in the region. Natura is moving ahead with
the second wave of integration (Wave 2), seeking to reshape its
cost structure and focus on market portfolio, as well strategic,
decisions to rightsized its operation in select markets.
Natura must also move forward with its strategy to transition from
a direct sales single-model, with declining trends in certain
markets, to an omnichannel strategy. Natura's strategy related to
online and physical stores are key factors to watch. The company
closed 2023, with 112 owned stores and 773 franchised stores.
Gradual Improvement in Profitability: Natura remains focused on its
business simplification and improving profitability, with marginal
improvements delivered during 2023. Per Fitch's criteria, Natura's
adjusted EBITDAR margin during 2023 was 10.1%, an improvement from
8.7% during 2022. For 2024, Fitch expects an adjusted EBITDAR
margin of 11.5%, then moving to around 12% during the next two
years.
In terms of adjusted EBITDAR generation, the company should achieve
BRL3.2 billion in 2024 and BRL3.4 billion in 2025. In past years,
Natura has invested heavily in digitalization and on increasing its
online sales, which have more than doubled. During 2023, 88% of
total sales utilized the traditional direct selling model, 8%
digital, 4% retail and 1% wholesale.
FCF Impacted by Extraordinary Dividends: Fitch expects Natura's FCF
to be negative in 2024 at around BRL1.2 billion after BRL1 billion
of capex and extraordinary dividends of BRL979 million to be paid
during April 2024. Natura is expected to maintain a strong pipeline
of innovation to keep up with fast-changing beauty trends and to
digitalize to engage more directly with end consumers, which is
expected to require solid capex levels.
Fitch's base case incorporates average annual capex of around BRL1
billion in 2024-2026, which will continue to pressure FCF. For 2025
and 2026, FCF should be around BRL332 million and BRL535 million.
Fitch includes minimum dividends payments (30% of net income) for
2025 and 2026.
Top-Down-1 Approach for Avon: Natura wholly owns Natura Cosmeticos
S.A. and Avon Products, which are separate legal entities. Fitch
assesses the group on a consolidated basis, given the strong
operational and strategic incentives, centralized treasury,
substantial asset contribution via synergies at the Latin American
operations, and the tangible financial support in the form of
payment of Avon's secured and unsecured notes. Natura's operations
supported the payment of around BRL4 billion at Avon's level.
Natura has indicated it is studying the separation of Avon
International's operations and that currently there are limited
synergies. Therefore, Fitch has reassessed the operational and
strategic linkage to medium, resulting in a Top Down -1 rating
approach. For Natura and Natura Cosméticos, the consolidated
approach also includes cross-guarantees, and others cross defaults
clauses support the consolidated approach.
DERIVATION SUMMARY
Natura's ratings reflect the combination of its good business
position in the CF&T industry, underpinned by strong brand
recognition and market position in Brazil and main markets in Latin
America, as well as conservative credit profile. Current credit
metrics (net adjusted leverage of 0.4x-0.6x) are strong for the
rating category. This helps to mitigate the challenges the company
continues to face to recover its business profitability and new
industry dynamics moving to an omnichannel strategy and fierce
competition. Any deviation in terms of implementing a more
friendly-shareholder policies or inorganic cash outflows could
pressure the ratings.
Rated peers in the consumer/beauty products space include Coty Inc.
(BB/Positive Outlook). Coty's ratings reflect its leading market
position as one of the world's largest beauty companies with a
recently improved mix toward higher growth and higher margined
prestige fragrance and skincare, but still high to moderate
leverage (estimated net leverage trending below 4.0x).
Natura also faces strong competition from a local player, O
Boticario (not rated), which also presents a solid business
profile, supported mainly by its bricks-and-mortar franchise chain,
and adequate leverage.
Within the retail/consumer universe, Fitch rates MercadoLibre,
Inc.'s (MELI) (BB+/Stable). MELI's ratings reflects its leadership
position in the competitive and underpenetrated e-commerce and
digital payments sectors in Latin America, and Fitch's expectation
that MELI will preserve good financial discipline while it
continues to invest in logistics and technology. MELI`s rating is
also somewhat limited by operating environment of Brazil and
Argentina.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
- Fitch expects Natura's revenue to grow around low single digit
during 2024-2026;
- Consolidated EBITDAR margins moving round 11%-12% in 2024-26;
- Capex of around BRL1 billion;
- Dividends of BRL979 million in 2024 and around 30% of net income
afterwards.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:
- Consistent EBITDA margins improvements commensurate with peers;
- Consolidated total adjusted debt/EBITDAR below 2,0x and net
adjusted debt/EBITDAR ratio below 1.5x on a consistent basis;
- Maintenance of strong liquidity and no refinancing risks within
18-24 months.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:
- Consolidated EBITDAR margins declining to below 10% on a
recurrent basis;
- Consolidated net adjusted leverage consistently above 2.5x;
- Competitive pressures leading to severe loss in market-share for
either Natura and Avon or a significant deterioration in its brands
reputation.
LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE
Strong Liquidity and Financial Flexibility: Natura has a track
record of robust liquidity position and solid access to both local
and international credit and debt markets. The company had BRL7.8
billion in cash and marketable securities at YE 2023 and total debt
of BRL8.1 billion, including Fitch's adjusted rental obligations of
BRL2.0 billion.
Natura's debt mainly consists of BRL3.5 billion at Natura&Co Lux
(group's financial vehicle), BRL2.5 billion at Natura Cosmeticos
and BRL131 million at Avon. Cross-border bonds (57%), local
debentures (32%) and local commercial notes (8%) are the company's
main debt. Natura& Co holding has no debt as of Dec. 31, 2023.
During 3Q23 and 4Q23, Natura paid more than BRL7.6 billion in debt
using the resource of the Aesop sale. This includes accrued
interests and derivatives settlements, Tender Offer of its USD 550
million due 2028 and USD 330 million due 2029 bonds, as well as USD
468 million in disbursements under its revolving credit facility
due 2024 and USD 250 million in a Club Loan due 2025.
Following these debt prepayment, Natura's debt schedule
amortization is currently quite extended with no refinancing
exposure in the next three years. The company faces BRL164 million
of short-term debt, BRL500 million in 2025, and next maturity is
BRL1.1 billion at 2027, with a remaining balance of BRL4.4 billion
from 2028 on. Fitch expects Natura to remain proactive in its
liability management strategy to avoid exposure to high refinancing
risks in the medium term.
ISSUER PROFILE
Natura&Co is composed by two iconic beauty companies: Natura and
Avon with strong market presence in Latin America. During 2023, 74%
of its revenues were originated in Latin America, with Brazil
representing 45%. , 12% i .
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Natura
Cosmeticos S.A. LT IDR BB+ Upgrade BB
LC LT IDR BB+ Upgrade BB
Natl LT AAA(bra)Upgrade AA+(bra)
Avon Products,
Inc. LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
senior
unsecured LT BB Affirmed BB
Natura &Co
Holding S.A. LT IDR BB+ Upgrade BB
LC LT IDR BB+ Upgrade BB
Natl LT AAA(bra)Upgrade AA+(bra)
Natura &Co
Luxembourg
Holdings S.a r.l.
senior
unsecured LT BB+ Upgrade BB
TRAFIGURA GROUP: Admits to a Decade of Bribery in Brazil
--------------------------------------------------------
Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that Trafigura Group has
confessed to a decade-long bribery operation in Brazil,
spotlighting the pervasive corruption within global commodity
trading.
This acknowledgment is part of a settlement with the U.S.
Department of Justice in Miami, where Trafigura agrees to pay fines
and forfeitures totaling $127 million, according to Rio Times
Online.
This marks Trafigura's first admission, distinguishing it from its
competitors, who have also faced U.S. scrutiny for corrupt
practices, the report notes.
The disclosure reveals deep-seated issues in a sector that
significantly influences the global economy but operates with
minimal oversight, he report adds.
===========================
C A Y M A N I S L A N D S
===========================
KUWAIT FINANCE: Fitch Affirms 'BB+(xgs)/B(xgs)' IDRs
----------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Kuwait Finance House (K.S.C.P.)'s (KFH)
Viability Rating (VR) at 'bb+', Long-Term Issuer Default Rating
(IDR) (xgs) at 'BB+(xgs)' and Short-Term IDR (xgs) at 'B(xgs)'.
The rating actions correct an error, where Fitch affirmed KFH's VR
at 'bb+' below the implied VR of 'bbb-' without assigning a
negative adjustment in the rating action commentary published on 18
January 2024. Fitch has now assigned a negative adjustment and the
bank's VR of 'bb+' is below the implied VR of 'bbb-' due to the
following adjustment reason: risk profile (negative). This
adjustment reflects KFH's significant operations in weak and
volatile markets, particularly Turkiye and Bahrain, which together
represented 33% of group credit risk exposures and 30% of group
financing at end-2023.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmation of the VR reflects the absence of any major credit
events or changes since the previous rating review. KFH's key
rating drivers are detailed in the rating action commentary "Fitch
Affirms Kuwait Finance House at 'A'; Stable Outlook" published on
18 January 2024.
The bank's IDRs and Government Support Rating are unaffected.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Aggressive growth or considerably higher risks in foreign markets
(including Turkiye, Bahrain and Egypt) where KFH operates that
place significant pressure on asset quality and capital could lead
to a downgrade of the VR.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Lower or more diversified credit risk exposures to volatile
markets, including Turkiye, Bahrain and Egypt, could support an
upgrade of the bank's VR. Improvement in the bank's asset quality
and risk appetite, in line with its restructuring and divestment
strategy, could also trigger a VR upgrade.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
KFH's 'BB+(xgs)' Long-Term IDR (xgs) is at the level of its VR.
KFH's 'B(xgs)' Short-Term IDR (xgs) is mapped to its Long-Term IDR
(xgs).
KFH's USD4 billion trust certificate issuance programme and sukuk,
all senior unsecured obligations, issued via KFH Sukuk Company (a
wholly owned special purpose vehicle) are rated at the level of the
bank's IDRs and IDRs (xgs). This reflects Fitch's view that default
of these senior unsecured obligations would reflect a default of
KFH, in accordance with Fitch's rating definitions.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
KFH's Long-Term IDR (xgs) will mirror changes to its VR. KFH's
Short-Term IDR (xgs) are sensitive to changes in its Long-Term IDR
(xgs).
The programme's and issuance's senior unsecured ratings (xgs) are
sensitive to changes in KFH's IDRs (xgs).
VR ADJUSTMENTS
The operating environment score of 'bb+' is below the 'a' category
implied score due to the following adjustment reasons: size and
structure of economy (negative), financial market development
(negative) and international operations (negative).
The business profile score of 'bbb-' is above the 'bb' category
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: market
position (positive).
The funding and liquidity score of 'bbb+' is above the 'bb'
category implied score due to the following adjustment reason:
deposit structure (positive).
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
As an Islamic bank, KFH needs to ensure compliance of its entire
operations and activities with sharia principles and rules. This
entails additional costs, processes, disclosures, regulations,
reporting and sharia audit. This results in a Governance Structure
Relevance Score of '4' for the bank, which has a negative impact on
the bank's credit profile and is relevant to its rating in
combination with other factors.
In addition, Islamic banks have an ESG Relevance Score of '3' for
exposure to social impacts, above sector guidance for an ESG
relevance score of '2' for comparable conventional banks, which
reflects certain sharia limitations being embedded in Islamic
banks' operations and obligations, although this only has a minimal
credit impact on the entities.
Except for the matter discussed above, the highest level of ESG
credit relevance, if present, is a score of 3 - ESG issues are
credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs
in the rating process; they are an observation of the materiality
and relevance of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Kuwait Finance
House (K.S.C.P.) Viability bb+ Affirmed bb+
LT IDR (xgs) BB+(xgs)Affirmed BB+(xgs)
ST IDR (xgs) B(xgs) Affirmed B(xgs)
KFH Sukuk
Company
senior
unsecured ST (xgs) B(xgs) Affirmed B(xgs)
senior
unsecured LT (xgs) BB+(xgs)Affirmed BB+(xgs)
=========
C H I L E
=========
INVERSIONES LATIN: Fitch Assigns 'BB' Rating to Sr. Secured Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned a 'BB' rating to Inversiones Latin
America Power Limitada's (ILAP, the issuer) USD264.3 million
take-back senior secured notes due in 2033. The notes are supported
by cash flows from two windfarms, San Juan, S.A. (San Juan) and
Norvind, S.A. (Totoral). The Rating Outlook is Stable.
RATING RATIONALE
The rating for ILAP's portfolio of two windfarms in Chile, San Juan
(81% of total generation capacity) and Totoral (19%), reflects its
mostly contracted position with distribution companies (DisCos)
through regulated, fixed-priced, long-term power purchase
agreements (PPAs) and short-term bilateral PPAs through 2033. The
transaction is exposed to profitability erosion risk due to varying
prices between the energy injection node and the DisCo withdrawal
node, which Fitch expects to be mitigated over the medium term by
transmission network expansions. There is also some reliance on the
monetization of the price stabilization (PEC I and PEC II)
receivables, the most relevant of which is expected to be received
during 2024.
The projects' most relevant counterparties are either investment
grade or DisCos under regulated PPAs, which benefit from protective
regulatory step-in provisions. Together, both farms have a P50 and
one- year P90 difference of 13%, indicating moderate wind resource
variability, and have performed at around P50 in most years. The
windfarms have some curtailment risk, which Fitch expects to
persist going forward. Both farms have presented an adequate
operating track record and benefit from long-term, fixed-price
service and availability agreements with Vestas Chile, guaranteed
by Vestas Wind Systems A/S, which is considered an experienced O&M
contractor.
The overall debt structure is flexible, with payment-in-kind (PIK)
interest in the first 24 months and a cash sweep in excess of USD15
million in lieu of an amortization schedule. There is also some
subordination in the structure, as the cash sweep is allocated
first to the payment of super priority notes (SPN), although the
exposure is limited due to the negligible amount of the SPN
compared to the rated debt.
Under Fitch's rating case, minimum loan life coverage ratio (LLCR)
is 1.23x, which is consistent with the assigned rating. In Fitch
scenarios, the debt is repaid within its final maturity.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Robust O&M Agreement Provides Comfort (Operation Risk - Midrange)
Vestas Chile, which is supported by a guarantee of its parent
company, Vestas Wind Systems A/S, is a provider of equipment and
O&M contracts and has a long and proven track record with the
plants' technology. The plants benefit from a comprehensive service
and availability agreement (SAA) with fixed and defined costs,
including scheduled and unscheduled maintenance covering the
majority of the life of the debt.
The SAAs also provide minimum availability guarantees of 97% for
both windfarms since 2021 and of 98% for San Juan starting in 2022.
The transaction will be exposed to re-contracting risk once the
agreement with Totoral expires in 2029, which could lead to
increases in costs or lower availability guarantees.
Adequate Track Record (Revenue Risk - Volume: Midrange)
Both farms benefit from a resource forecast that considers
operating history, with a longer track record considered for the
smaller windfarm, Totoral, having started operations on 2010. Both
farms have P90/P50 differentials of 13%, indicating moderate wind
resource variability. San Juan has a shorter operating track record
and has been exposed to wake effect due to the construction of
neighboring windfarms.
Although wake effect remains a risk for this plant, losses have
been conservatively estimated by the project's independent engineer
(IE), included in the resource forecast utilized by Fitch. Both
plants are also exposed to some curtailment risk, which is expected
to continue as additional renewables incorporate themselves into
the system
Exposure to Adverse Market Dynamics (Revenue Risk - Price: Weaker)
Although the majority of revenues (around 90%) are contracted
through long-term, inflation-linked, fixed-priced PPAs, price
stabilization policies prevalent in Chile have prevented the
project of capturing the full price contracted in their regulated
PPAs. Additionally, price exposure mainly originates from the
differential between injection node and withdrawal node. The
company earns the injection price where the plants are located,
north of Santiago, and pays the withdrawal price for most of its
PPAs in Central Chile, where the majority of the energy demand is
located. The withdrawal price has been generally higher due to the
concentration of energy demand, but Fitch expects increased
geographic distribution of renewable penetration to partially
offset the differential.
Flexible Structure (Debt Structure - Midrange)
The debt has the possibility of capitalizing interest in the first
two years, and it has flexibility on the principal payment
obligation until maturity date. Instead of an amortization
schedule, there is a cash sweep mechanism in excess of a minimum
cash balance, which goes toward prepayment of the notes after the
superiority notes have been paid in full. The transaction benefits
from an adequate covenant and security package but lacks a debt
service reserve account (DSRA).
Financial Profile
Under Fitch's base case, which represents expected financial
performance under normal operating conditions, minimum LLCR is
1.36x and the debt is repaid four years before maturity. Fitch's
rating case represents a downside scenario and includes stresses on
injection node prices, operational expenses, and the tariff
stabilization mechanism for regulated PPAs, among other factors.
Under Fitch's rating case, minimum LLCR is 1.23x, consistent with
the assigned rating, and the debt is repaid three years before
maturity.
Breakevens demonstrate that the financial profile should be
resilient against a variety of stresses including generation,
increasing basis risk between injection and withdrawal node prices,
and increasing operating expenses, which supports the current
rating level.
PEER GROUP
Fitch considers other wind energy generation projects in the region
as peers for this project, such as Energia Eolica S.A. (Inka),
rated 'BBB-'/Stable, with a rating case DSCR minimum of 1.27x and
an average of 1.32x under Fitch's rating case. Parque Eolico Tres
Hermanas, S.A.C. is also rated 'BBB-'/Positive, with a rating case
DSCR minimum of 1.41x and an average of 1.53x. Like ILAP, these
projects also have a large proportion of revenues originating from
contracted energy sales. However, when compared to these
investment-grade peers, ILAP has lower metrics and is exposed to
other risks such as basis risk, exposure to DisCo demand and
working capital pressure from tariff stabilization receivables,
which justifies its lower rating.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Monetization of PEC II receivables does not happen before the end
of 2024;
- Decoupling costs at or above an annual average of around USD 13
per MWh;
- Delays in the publication of the tariff decree that will end the
regulated PPA price stabilization beyond the end of 2024;
- Net energy generation, after curtailment, consistently below 460
GWh in total for both wind farms.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- The decoupling costs remain close to zero, yielding a minimum
LLCR forecast of around 1.3x;
- Ability to timely monetize current and future tariff
stabilization receivables.
TRANSACTION SUMMARY
In June 2021, ILAP issued USD 403.9 million in partially amortizing
senior secured notes. A deterioration of ILAP's financial profile
resulting from spot price volatility, the extension of the
electricity tariff stabilization mechanism, and the continued delay
in the implementation of a monetization facility, impaired the
project's payment capacity, leading to the default of the notes in
July 2023 and ILAP's Chapter 11 filing on Nov. 30, 2023.
On Jan. 12, 2024, ILAP successfully emerged from its Chapter 11
restructuring following the confirmation of its plan of
reorganization by the corresponding court approval. Under this
plan, ILAP and its creditors exchanged more than USD430 million of
the defaulted senior debt projects for approximately USD264 million
of take-back senior secured notes and approximately USD165 million
in new convertible notes of ILAP's direct parent entity. In
addition, certain noteholders provided ILAP with approximately
USD14 million in exit financing in the form of super priority
senior secured notes. The take-back and super priority notes are
principally secured by a first priority security interest in all
assets, the material project documents and the project accounts.
The transaction consists of the holding company, ILAP, which issued
all of the transaction debt and receives upstreamed cash flows in
the form of shareholder loan payments from the project companies
and guarantors, San Juan, S.A. and Norvind, S.A. San Juan, S.A.
owns and operates the San Juan windfarm in Vallenar, within the
Atacama region in Chile, with an installed capacity of 193.2 MW
that consists of 56 Vestas V117-3.45MW wind turbine generators.
This windfarm reached commercial operations in March 2017. Norvind,
S.A. owns and operates the Totoral windfarm in Canela, within the
Coquimbo region in Chile, with an installed capacity of 46 MW that
consists of 23 Vestas V90-2.0MW wind turbine generators. This
windfarm reached commercial operations in January 2010.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Fitch's base case reflects the agency's view of long-term
sustainable performance. Fitch's base case assumes P50 generation
with an additional production haircut of 3% to account for forecast
uncertainty and potential wake losses. Curtailment and availability
are assumed at 5% and 96%, respectively for San Juan and 4% and 95%
for Totoral. U.S. inflation is assumed at 2.8% for 2024, 2.5% for
2025 and 2.0% from 2026 onwards. Chile's inflation is assumed at
3.6% in 2024 and 3.0% from 2025 onwards.
Spot price projections are assumed at an average of real USD 44/MWh
for 2024-2033, with the assumption of no decoupling between
withdrawal and injection prices. For the regulated PPAs, Fitch
assumed that during 1H2024 a discount of 15% over the regulated PPA
prices will still be applied, until the decree with the updated
tariffs is published by June. Inflows from stabilized tariff
receivables were assumed at around USD20 million in 2024, USD6
million in 2025, and USD5 million in both 2026 and 2027. The
operational cost profile assumed is in line with the sponsor's
original assumptions given the long-term, full-scope SAA.
Fitch also considered only five additional years of useful life
beyond the expiration of the Vestas contracts, for a total of 25
years of useful life for each asset. However, to reflect its view
that operating costs may increase after the typical 20-year useful
life of a wind asset, Fitch stressed the SAA costs by 5% after year
20 of operation.
Fitch's rating case reflects a reasonably likely combination of
uncorrelated stresses that could occur in any given year but which
are not expected to persist. The rating case assumes P90 generation
and the same generation haircut, curtailment, availability and
inflation as the base case. Withdrawal spot prices are assumed at
an average of USD 33/MWh for 2024-2033 with an average decoupling
with respect to injection prices of USD 6/MWh in 2024-2030 and zero
thereafter. For the regulated PPA prices, a discount of 15% in the
full year of 2024 is assumed, accounting for a delay in the
publication of the updated tariffs, while inflows from stabilized
tariff receivables were assumed at around USD9 million in 2024,
USD13 million in 2025, and USD5 million in both 2026 and 2027. The
rating case also assumes a 7.5% stress on operating expenses,
excluding SAA costs, which are stressed by 12.5% after year 20 of
operation.
Under Fitch's base case, minimum LLCR is 1.36x, while under the
rating case, this metric erodes to a minimum of 1.23x.
Fitch also ran break-even analyses to evaluate the project's
financial resilience to extreme stresses. These analyses indicated,
under Fitch's base case conditions, that the project could
withstand a maximum increase on the differentials between its
withdrawal and injection node prices to an average of USD 39/MWh
during 2024-2030 before defaulting. This is considered a strong
margin to protect against periods of congestion in comparison to
historical behavior. The transaction also shows solid resiliency
against stresses on generation, and costs.
SECURITY
This debt will be principally secured by a first priority security
interest in all assets, the material project documents and the
project accounts.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Inversiones Latin
America Power Ltda.
Inversiones Latin
America Power Ltda.
/Energy Revenues –
First Lien/1 LT BB New Rating
WOM S.A.: Case Summary & 30 Largest Unsecured Creditors
-------------------------------------------------------
Lead Debtor: WOM S.A.
General Mackenna 1369
Santiago, Chile
Business Description: WOM is a Chilean telecommunications
provider, focused on offering mobile voice,
data, and broadband services, along with a
rapidly expanding "Fiber to the Home"
broadband offering, to consumers and
businesses in Chile. Since the acquisition
of Nextel Chile in 2015 through Novator
Partners LLP's investment vehicle NC Telecom
AS, WOM has expanded from having virtually
no market share to establishing itself as
the second-largest mobile network operator
in Chile.
Chapter 11 Petition Date: April 1, 2024
Court: United States Bankruptcy Court
District of Delaware
Six affiliates that concurrently filed voluntary petitions for
relief under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code:
Debtor Case No.
------ --------
WOM S.A. (Lead Case) 24-10628
Kenbourne Invest S.A. 24-10625
NC Telecom II AS 24-10626
WOM Mobile S.A. 24-10627
Conect S.A. 24-10629
Multikom S.A. 24-10630
Judge: Hon. Karen B. Owens
Debtors'
General
Bankruptcy
Counsel: John K. Cunningham, Esq.
Richard S. Kebrdle, Esq.
WHITE & CASE LLP
Southeast Financial Center
200 South Biscayne Boulevard,
Suite 4900
Miami, Florida 33131
Tel: (305) 371-2700
Email: jcunningham@whitecase.com
rkebrdle@whitecase.com
- and -
Philip M. Abelson, Esq.
Andrew Zatz, Esq.
Samuel P. Hershey, Esq.
Andrea Amulic, Esq.
Lilian Marques, Esq.
Claire Tuffey, Esq.
1221 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY 10020
Phone: (212) 819-8200
Email: philip.abelson@whitecase.com
azatz@whitecase.com
sam.hershey@whitecase.com
andrea.amulic@whitecase.com
lilian.marques@whitecase.com
claire.tuffey@whitecase.com
Debtors'
Local
Bankruptcy
Counsel: John H. Knight, Esq.
Amanda R. Steele, Esq.
Brendan J. Schlauch, Esq.
RICHARDS, LAYTON & FINGER, P.A.
One Rodney Square
920 North King Street
Wilmington, Delaware 19801
Tel: (302) 651-7700
Email: knight@rlf.com
steele@rlf.com
schlauch@rlf.com
Debtors'
Restructuring &
Financial
Advisor: RIVERON CONSULTING LLC
Debtors'
Investment
Banker: ROTHSCHILD & CO US INC.
Debtors'
Notice &
Claims
Agent: KROLL RESTRUCTURING ADMINISTRATION
LLC
Estimated Assets: $1 billion to $10 billion
Estimated Liabilities: $1 billion to $10 billion
The petitions were signed by Timothy O'Connoer as independent
director.
A full-text copy of Multikom S.A.'s petition is available for free
at PacerMonitor.com at:
https://www.pacermonitor.com/view/7L3IHDI/Multikom_SA__debke-24-10630__0001.0.pdf?mcid=tGE4TAMA
Consolidated List of Debtors' 30 Largest Unsecured Creditors:
Entity Nature of Claim Claim Amount
1. U.S. Bank Wealth Management 2024 Unsecured $356,237,762
Global Corporate Trust Boston Bonds
1 Federal Street, 3rd Floor
Boston, MA
02110, USA
Attn: Francine M. Thompson
Phone: 1-617-603-6598
Email: francine.thompson@usbank.com
2. U.S. Bank Wealth Management 2028 Unsecured $292,574,555
Global Corporate Trust Boston Bonds
1 Federal Street, 3rd Floor
Boston, MA 02110
USA
Attn: Francine M. Thompson
Phone: 1-617-603-6598
Email: francine.thompson@usbank.com
3. BCI Factoring SA Bank/Trade $44,609,369
Miguel Cruchaga 920
Santiago, Santiago, Chile
Email: carla.alday@bci.cl
4. China Construction Bank Bank/Trade $29,127,451
Corporation
(Shenzhen Branch)
5. Phoenix Tower International Trade $25,920,139
Chile SPA
Apoquindo 3500 Piso 16
Santiago, Las Condes, Chile
Email: apinvoicesch@phoenixintnl.com
6. Xiaomi Chile SPA Trade $16,453,604
Rosario Norte 555
Santiago, Las Condes, Chile
Phone: 56-9-71711261
Email: rosasfelipe@gmail.com
7. Motorola Mobility LLC Trade $14,651,915
600 North US 45
Libertyville, Illinois 60048, USA
Email: bdcm73@motorola.com
8. Mirgor Chile SPA Trade $11,163,267
Vitacura 2969
Santiago, Las Condes, Chile
Phone: 56-9-84794053
Email: jorge.trapaglia@mirgor.com
9. Industrial and Commerical Bank/Trade $10,948,568
Bank of China (Shenzhen)
10. Bank of China (Hong Kong) Bank/Trade $10,911,647
Limited
11. Banco BCI Lender $10,850,001
El Golf No. 125
Las Condes, Santiago
Attn: Felipe Brevis
Phone: 56-9-9450-2382
12. Huawei (Chile) S.A. Trade $8,958,393
Rosario Norte 532, Of. 1701-1704
Las Condes, Santiago, Chile
Email: laizhihao@huawei.com
13. Samsung Electronics Trade $7,570,580
Chile Limitada
Cerro El Plomo 6000 Piso 6
Santiago, Las Condes, Chile
Phone: 56-9-78784653
Email: b.rigotti@samsung.com
14. Honor Information Trade $5,807,378
Technology CO., Limited
Suite 1701, 17/F, K11 Atelier
18 Salisbury Road,
Tsim Sha Tsui, Hong Kong
Phone: 56-9-94894640
Email: soledad.canobra@hihonor.com
15. Banco Santander Chile Bank/Trade $5,702,018
Bandera 140
Santiago, Santiago, Chile
Email: ernesto.hernandez@santander.cl
16. Google Payment Corp. Trade $5,006,710
Amphitheatre Pkw 1600
Mountain View, CA 94043
United States
Email: payments-noreply@google.com
17. Corp Zte De Chile SA Trade $5,004,185
Los Militares #5890 Oficina 703
Santiago, Las Condes, Chile
Phone: 56-9-74768534
Email: mario.vielma@zte.com.cn
18. ATC Sitios De Chile SA Trade $4,827,124
Av. Pedro De Valdivia
555 Oficina 1101
Santiago, Providencia, Chile
Email: marlene.donoso@americantower.com
19. GTD Teleductos S.A. Trade $4,569,545
Moneda 920 Piso 11
Santiago, Santiago, Chile
Phone: 56-2-24139129
Email: marcela.sotomayor@grupogtd.com
20. Netflix Inc. Trade $4,102,698
100 Winchester Circle
Los Gatos CA 95032
United States
Email: billings@netflix.com
21. Protec-ING SpA Litigation $3,903,171
Avenida Club Hipico N 4676,
Oficina 811
E. Comuna De Pedro
Aguirre Cerda
Regionn Metropolitana, Chile
Phone: 56-9-81898535
+56-9-44188291
Email: c.tamayo@protec-ing.cl/
p.pavelic@protec-ing.cl
22. Andean Telecom Partners Trade $3,895,072
Chile SPA
Isidora Goyenechea 2939 Piso 11
Santiago, Las Condes Chile
Phone: 56-9-22210687
Email: felipe.vasconcelo@atpsites.com
23. Holdtech SA Trade $3,552,401
Lira 278
Santiago, Santiago, Chile
Phone: 56-2-24297772
Email: luis.montecinos@holdtech.cl
24. Falabella Retail S.A. Trade $3,377,248
Rosas 1665 1022
Santiago, Chile
Email: mgrell@falabella.cl
25. Banco BTG Pactual Chile Bank/Trade $3,315,062
Av. Costanera SUR 2730 Piso 19
Torre B Santiago, Las Condes, Chile
Phone: 56-2-25875942
Email: daniela.fica@btgpactual.com
26. Apple Chile Commercial Limitada Trade $3,285,061
Cerro El Plomo 5630 Torre 8
Piso 20
Oficina 2001/2002
Santiago, Las Condes, Chile
Phone: 56-9-6306-3687
Email: chilear@apple.com
27. Fynpal SPA Factoring $3,172,833
Santiago 1369
Santiago, Chile
Phone: 56-9-5639-3052
Email: irodriguez@stcapital.cl
28. Telefonica Chile S.A. Trade $3,020,131
Providencia 111
Santiago, Chile
Attn: Flipe Leon
Email: Felipe.leon@telefonica.com
29. Claro Chile SpA Trade $2,912,627
Av Salto 5450 Santiago
Metropolitana, Chile
Attn: Evelyn Santibanez
Email: evelyn.santibanez@clarochile.cl
30. Moneda Cumplo Pronto Factoring $2,771,948
Pago Pymes
Fondo De Inversion
Apoquindo 5400
Santiago, Las Condes, Chile
Email: crc@cumplo.com
WOM S.A.: Enters Chap. 11 With $210MM DIP Financing From JPMorgan
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Chilean mobile and broadband telecommunications provider WOM SA,
f/k/a Nextel Chile SA, and several affiliates filed chapter 11
petitions on April 1, 2024, in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the
District of Delaware.
WOM SA reported $1 billion to $10 billion in both assets and
liabilities.
The debtors enter chapter 11 with a $210 million DIP financing
commitment, which would be used to repay the Debtors' prepetition
securitization facility and critical vendors. JPMorgan Chase & Co.
had agreed to provide $200 million in debtor-in-possession
financing.
Although negotiations with stakeholders on a "definitive
restructuring solution" are underway, the Debtors have not yet
filed a reorganization plan.
According to the company's press release, the chapter 11 filing
will allow WOM to reorganize its capital structure and address
short-term liquidity needs in the face of a "difficult credit
market environment."
CEO Chris Bannister said that the chapter 11 process will allow the
debtors to work with creditors and access new sources of funding to
"ensure the financial stability of the company."
Bloomberg notes that the filing allows WOM, which had about $1.8
billion in total liabilities at the end of last year, to keep
operating while it works on a plan to repay creditors.
Fastest Growing
Robert Wagstaff, a Managing Director at Riveron RTS, LLC and the
chief restructuring advisor for debtor WOM S.A., said in the First
Day Declaration that WOM is one of the fastest growing and
market-leading Chilean telecommunications providers, focused on
offering mobile voice, data, and broadband services, along with a
rapidly expanding "Fiber to the Home" ("FTTH") broadband offering,
to consumers and businesses in Chile. Since the acquisition of
Nextel Chile in 2015 through Novator Partners LLP's investment
vehicle NC Telecom AS, WOM has expanded from having virtually no
market share to establishing itself as the second-largest mobile
network operator in Chile. As of December 2023, the Debtors' total
customer base is comprised of over 8.5 million customers and has
rapidly grown to approximately 31% of port-in market share across
pre- and post-paid customers. The Company expanded its offerings to
include FTTH broadband service in 2020, and 5G for its mobile
network in 2022. As of September 2023, WOM has the largest 5G
coverage area and the fastest mobile network in Chile.
As of the Petition Date, the Company's 5G wireless broadband
services deliver internet access to approximately one million
customers, with a coverage area that spans over 18 million people.
The Company holds spectrum in four bands, including 3G, 4G, and 5G
networks, which corresponds to approximately 25.8% of all spectrum
for mobile services in Chile. Along
with providing extensive coverage, large download capacity, high
speeds and stable connectivity, the Company provides 4G network
coverage to 99% of Chile through national roaming agreements with
certain other mobile companies operating in Chile.
Liquidity Challenges
According to Mr. Wagstaff, the Company has faced liquidity
challenges for the past year. In March 2023, Fitch downgraded the
2024 and 2028 unsecured U.S.-dollar-denominated notes issued by
Kenbourne Invest S.A. to B+/RR4 from BB-, with a negative rating
outlook. The downgrade cited an uncertain path to deleveraging in
issuing the downgrade.
The downgrade had multiple impacts on liquidity. First, it
triggered a margin call on the Company's CLP/USD derivative
contracts, resulting in a use of cash of more than $35 million
between April and November 2023, when the Company closed out its
remaining hedged positions. The downgrade also caused the
Inter-American Investment Corporation, an affiliate of
Inter-American Development Bank ("IDB"), to reduce its credit
facility to the Company from $100 million to $50 million, depriving
the Company of a vital source of liquidity to finance the customer
receivables generated from the remaining collections on the sale of
handsets. After a second downgrade in the Company's bonds in
November 2023, IDB closed the credit facility altogether. Since
then, the Company has been paying down the remaining balance to
IDB, absorbing another $35 million in liquidity between November
2023 and March 2024.
The delayed rollout of the Company's 5G network buildout also
negatively affected liquidity in 2023. The Company has been in an
international arbitration proceeding with the government of Chile
over restrictions in the construction of cellular towers in certain
areas of the country. The Company's inability to build towers at
the expected pace prevented the Company from selling the
constructed towers under the sale-leaseback agreement with Phoenix
Tower International and deprived the Company of an estimated $25
million in liquidity in 2023.
Since November 2023, given these negative impacts on liquidity, and
faced with a tight credit market and an uncertain path to
refinancing the Company's 2024 Notes with a maturity in November
2024, the Company has had to resort to expensive, short-term local
financing to finance its operations. It has also extended payment
terms to suppliers to manage liquidity. Despite management's
efforts to reduce costs, including through payroll reductions, the
combination of the negative impacts above on the Company's
liquidity caused the Company to explore restructuring
alternatives.
Prior to the commencement of these Chapter 11 Cases, the Company
pursued a capital raise to redeem its 2024 Notes and provide
additional cash to its balance sheet. To assist with those
negotiations and analyze the Company's liquidity position and cash
flow projections, Rothschild & Co, through its UK entity N.M.
Rothschild & Sons Limited, was hired as the Company's investment
banker. The Company also hired other restructuring advisors,
including Riveron, to develop and help implement options for a
potential restructuring of all its financial indebtedness in
parallel with the discussions regarding the capital raise.
$210M DIP Financing
While the Company and its advisors explored various out-of-court
financing options including a potential capital raise to refinance
the 2024 Notes, such financing was ultimately unsuccessful. In
light of its continued stressed liquidity position, the Company
launched a further process in March 2024 to raise either
out-of-court financing or an in-court debtor-in- possession ("DIP")
facility. After evaluating all available options, the Company
determined that the out-of-court proposals it had received were not
actionable within the necessary time frame for needed liquidity or
imposed unacceptable conditions to funding and instead the Company
turned to potential Chapter 11 Cases and
obtaining a DIP facility to address the Company's funding needs.
The most immediate issue for the Debtors is to obtain liquidity to
ensure sufficient working capital to efficiently operate its
business and administer their estates. Among the payments that
need to be made on an expedited basis are amounts owed to
employees, foreign and third-party vendors, and taxing authorities,
among others, who provide the essential services or authorizations
needed to operate, maintain, and protect the value of the Debtors'
assets. While those parties are essential to the prospects of
success for these Chapter 11 Cases, many of these foreign parties
also have no known material ties to the United States and so the
Debtors have no assurances that such parties will respect the
automatic stay or this Court's orders.
Thus, to ensure that there is sufficient liquidity to maintain
operations with minimal disruption and maximize the value of their
estates, the Debtors seek approval of a debtor-in-possession
financing facility from JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. (the "DIP
Agent").
The DIP Facility is a multi-draw term loan facility in the
aggregate principal amount of up to $210 million. The DIP Facility
will, among other things, permit the Debtors to continue to fund
their operations during the pendency of these Chapter 11 cases and
provide the Debtors with the funds that are critical to the
Debtors' efforts to maximize and preserve value for their
stakeholders during these Chapter 11 Case
About WOM
WOM is a Chilean telecommunications provider, focused on offering
mobile voice, data, and broadband services, along with a rapidly
expanding "Fiber to the Home" broadband offering, to consumers and
businesses in Chile. Since the acquisition of Nextel Chile in 2015
through Novator Partners LLP's investment vehicle NC Telecom AS,
WOM has expanded from having virtually no market share to
establishing itself as the second-largest mobile network operator
in Chile.
WOM sought relief under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code
(Bankr. D. Del. Lead Case No. 24-10628) on April 1, 2024. In the
petition filed by Timothy O'Connoer, as independent director, the
Debtor reports estimated assets and liabilities between $1 billion
and $10 billion each.
The Honorable Bankruptcy Judge Karen B. Owens oversees the case.
The Debtors tapped WHITE & CASE LLP as general bankruptcy counsel,
RICHARDS, LAYTON & FINGER, P.A., as local bankruptcy counsel,
RIVERON CONSULTING LLC as financial advisor, and ROTHSCHILD & CO US
INC. as investment banker. KROLL RESTRUCTURING ADMINISTRATION LLC
is the claims agent.
WOM S.A.: JPMorgan Deal, Easter Call Were Last Steps Before Ch. 11
------------------------------------------------------------------
Vinicius Andrade and Maria Elena Vizcaino at Bloomberg News report
that struggling Chilean telecom operator WOM had its fate sealed in
a 7 a.m. meeting on March 31, 2024 that capped months of creditor
angst and last-minute talks for funding.
Executives gathered at the company's headquarters on the banks of
the Mapocho River in Santiago, the nation's capital, according to
Bloomberg News. A deadline for filing earnings, plummeting bond
prices, and an approaching debt payment added to the urgency.
According to court filings, the team had five offers - known as
debtor-in-possession financing - on the table, Bloomberg News
notes.
Bloomberg News relays that after 30 minutes, they picked a deal for
around $210 million from JPMorgan Chase & Co.. Hours later, the
company filed for Chapter 11 in US bankruptcy court - protecting it
from having to pay bondholders and other creditors, Bloomberg News
notes.
The March 31 affair, which half of the eight participants joined by
phone and was detailed in the filings, marked an unceremonious fall
from grace for a closely held mobile operator that had once
thrilled bond investors by winning market share from bigger rivals
in the competitive Chile market, Bloomberg News says.
WOM - which stands for "word of mouth" was stung by what it deemed
"external events" including limited access to credit lines
following Moody's Ratings' downgrade to seven notches into junk
last October, Bloomberg News notes.
The company - and its financial adviser Rothschild & Co. - had
tried for months to find a way stave off bankruptcy and raise money
for a $348 million debt payment due in November, Bloomberg News
says. Finally, it buckled.
"We had explored lots of options and this is the best one to ensure
WOM moves forward and regains its mojo," Chief Executive Officer
Chris Bannister wrote in a LinkedIn post, citing high interest
rates, inflation and a weak peso as contributing to the company's
woes, Bloomberg News discloses.
The loan from JPMorgan, if approved by the court, will be used to
keep operations going and pay expenses, including employees,
according to the company, Bloomberg News relays.
Founded as a startup in 2015 when Icelandic businessman Thor
Bjorgolfsson's private equity fund Novator Partners LLP acquired
Nextel Chile, WOM quickly made waves for its brash ads, Bloomberg
News recalls. Soon, it became the nation's fastest-growing
mobile-phone operator, Bloomberg News says.
But trying to survive in a sector dominated by some of the world's
wealthiest telecom moguls, including Latin America's richest man,
Carlos Slim, and American billionaire John Malone, meant weathering
pricing wars that proved a cash drain, Bloomberg News notes. Back
in 2015, WOM said it was offering discounts of as much as 30% below
the competition, Bloomberg News says.
As of September, the company had about 21% of market share for
Chile's mobile lines, lagging Telefonica SA's Movistar and Entel
SA, according to data collected by the industry regulator,
Bloomberg News relates. Its modest revenue relative to global and
local peers, coupled with high leverage and intense competition in
the Andean nation, constrained its credit score, according to
Moody's, Bloomberg News says.
"There's too much competition, pricing, aggressive capex, lack of
funding vehicles," said Warren Hyland, a portfolio manager at
Muzinich & Co. in London who oversees $3.6 billion in
emerging-market assets, Bloomberg New snotes. "The best thing to
do is not to be invested in the high-yield telecom space," he
added.
In the case of WOM, some investors waited months for signs of
support from the controlling shareholder, Bloomberg News relates.
When the company delayed the release of financial results and it
became clear that controller support wouldn't materialize, the
collapse was hard and fast, Bloomberg News discloses. Bonds due
2024 last changed hands at around 33 cents on the dollar, from 77
cents where it traded less than a month ago, Bloomberg News says.
"When it became clear that the company would not be able to achieve
a regular-way refinancing of the 2024 notes, Rothschild pivoted to
sourcing out-of-court and DIP financing proposals," Marcelo Messer,
a managing director at Rothschild, said in court filings, Bloomberg
News notes.
As WOM reorganizes, strategists now see room for consolidation to
follow - a trend that has already picked up in countries like
Brazil, which saw telecom giant Oi SA file for bankruptcy
protection twice in less than seven years. Oi eventually sold its
mobile operations to local units of Telefonica SA and Telecom
Italia SpA, Bloomberg News relays.
WOM has been a "major disruptor" in the Chilean sector over the
past few years, BNP Paribas strategist Alexis Panton wrote in a
note, Bloomberg News discloses. But "there is sizable risk the
company will be unwound, and its assets sold and distributed among
its competitors," he said, Bloomberg News adds.
About WOM
WOM is a Chilean telecommunications provider, focused on offering
mobile voice, data, and broadband services, along with a rapidly
expanding "Fiber to the Home" broadband offering, to consumers and
businesses in Chile. Since the acquisition of Nextel Chile in 2015
through Novator Partners LLP's investment vehicle NC Telecom AS,
WOM has expanded from having virtually no market share to
establishing itself as the second-largest mobile network operator
in Chile.
WOM sought relief under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code
(Bankr. D. Del. Lead Case No. 24-10628) on April 1, 2024. In the
petition filed by Timothy O'Connoer, as independent director, the
Debtor reports estimated assets and liabilities between $1 billion
and $10 billion each.
The Honorable Bankruptcy Judge Karen B. Owens oversees the case.
The Debtors tapped WHITE & CASE LLP as general bankruptcy counsel,
RICHARDS, LAYTON & FINGER, P.A., as local bankruptcy counsel,
RIVERON CONSULTING LLC as financial advisor, and ROTHSCHILD & CO US
INC. as investment banker. KROLL RESTRUCTURING ADMINISTRATION LLC
is the claims agent.
===============
C O L O M B I A
===============
COLOMBIA: IMF Says Economy to Transition Toward Sustainable Level
-----------------------------------------------------------------
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
concluded the Article IV consultation with Colombia on March 27,
2024
With the sharp growth slowdown in 2023 from an overheated
post-pandemic position, the Colombian economy has reached more
sustainable levels of economic activity and domestic demand. This
has been underpinned by appropriately tight macroeconomic policies
over the last two years, which have supported an impressive
reduction in domestic and external imbalances built up during
2021-22.
The Colombian economy is set to continue its transition toward a
more sustainable level of demand and economic activity with
domestic imbalances continuing to narrow further in 2024. Real GDP
is expected to expand by 1.1 percent and inflation to gradually
fall to around 5 percent (y/y) by end-2024 on the back of prudent
macroeconomic policies. Meanwhile, the current account deficit is
projected to stabilize around 3.0 percent of GDP this year.
Although risks to the outlook remain elevated and to the downside,
Colombia's very strong economic fundamentals, policies, and policy
frameworks support its resilience. On the external front, risks
emanate from an intensification of geopolitical tensions, tighter
global financial conditions, and disruptions to supply chains,
which could adversely impact Colombia's growth and inflation.
Domestically, a stronger El Nino, weaker private demand,
miscalibration of policies, or reform uncertainties could hinder
economic activity and/or lead to higher inflation. The two-year
Flexible Credit Line (FCL) arrangement, with access amount
equivalent to SDR7.1557 billion (about US$9.8 billion) approved in
April 2022, provides additional external buffers against tail risk
scenarios on a precautionary basis, enhancing Colombia's already
strong resilience.
Executive Board Assessment
Directors commended the authorities for their very strong
macroeconomic policies and policy frameworks, which have
facilitated a marked reduction in domestic and external imbalances
despite a challenging environment. Directors highlighted that the
Flexible Credit Line (FCL) further supports resilience by providing
additional external buffers against tail risks and enhancing market
confidence. Noting the downside risks to the outlook, Directors
emphasized the importance of continued careful calibration of
macroeconomic policies to durably reduce remaining imbalances,
while also advancing Colombia's social agenda. Structural reforms
aimed at boosting productivity and supporting the energy transition
would also be important.
Directors commended the fiscal consolidation efforts in the past
two years as well as the continued gradual removal of distortive
fuel subsidies. They also welcomed the authorities' continued
commitment to the fiscal rule. Noting that the fiscal plan for 2024
poses risks, Directors broadly encouraged the authorities to take
proactive steps to scale back current spending plans while
protecting the vulnerable. Directors underscored that this would
help lower borrowing costs and also support disinflation efforts.
Reorienting public expenditures toward investment would also
facilitate the energy and climate transition and enhance potential
growth.
Directors commended the central bank's tight monetary policy stance
which resulted in a significant decline in the inflation rate.
Moving forward, a cautious and data driven monetary policy
normalization remains important with effective communication to
better anchor inflation expectations. Directors also agreed that
Colombia's flexible exchange rate regime should continue to
facilitate external adjustments and welcomed the central bank's
plan to proactively build additional international reserves.
Directors agreed that the financial sector remains resilient and
recommended continued close monitoring of risks, including given
rising NPLs, and encouraged continued progress in implementing the
2022 FSAP recommendations. They emphasized that managing potential
financial stability risks from the proposed pension reform would be
important.
To boost sustainable medium term growth, Directors recommended
reforms aimed at lifting productivity and encouraging private
investment. They emphasized that reforms to healthcare, pensions,
and labor markets should be designed within the existing policy
frameworks, while preserving fiscal and financial stability, and
balancing equity and efficiency considerations. Directors commended
the authorities' objective of reducing the country's reliance on
oil and coal and noted the importance of a well designed and
executed energy transition and export diversification plan. They
also encouraged the authorities to step up efforts to further
strengthen governance and transparency, and mitigate corruption
risks.
=============
E C U A D O R
=============
ECUADOR: 17K Farmers on Verge of Bankruptcy Due to Lack of Water
----------------------------------------------------------------
globalinsolvency.com, citing hortidaily.com, reports that in the
fertile lands of Tungurahua and Cotopaxi, the livelihoods of 17,000
farmers hang in the balance due to a devastating drought that has
left irrigation canals critical to their crops without water.
A catastrophic landslide has destroyed the water collection system
in the Latacunga-Salcedo-Ambato irrigation canal, plunging farmers
into a desperate fight for survival, according to the report.
The irrigation canal had been dry for 19 days when a landslide
destroyed a section of the catchment system in Salcedo on March 5,
2024, the report notes.
The tragedy fully hit the northern area of Ambato
(Tungurahua) and the cantons of Salcedo and Latacunga (Cotopaxi),
where more than 17,000 vegetable producers face a devastating
situation, the report relays.
The erosion of the terrain caused a landslide that dragged with it
about 30 meters of mountain, destroying a vital section of the
Latacunga-Salcedo-Ambato irrigation canal, which was previously the
vital artery that fed the crops and watering holes of numerous
communities, according to Marcelo Suarez, president of the
Irrigation System, the report adds.
===========
M E X I C O
===========
FORTALEZA MATERIALES: Fitch Ups IDRs to 'BB+' Then Withdraws Rating
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Fortaleza Materiales, S.A.P.I de C.V.'s
(Fortaleza) Long-Term Local and Foreign Currency Issuer Default
Ratings (IDRs) to 'BB+' from 'BB' and its National Scale rating to
'A+(mex)' from 'A(mex)'. Fitch has also affirmed Fortaleza's
Short-Term National Scale rating at 'F1(mex)'. The Rating Outlook
is Stable. Fitch has also withdrawn Fortaleza's IDRs for commercial
reasons.
The upgrades reflect Fortaleza's sustainable improvement of its
operating cash flow generation and credit metrics. Fortaleza
effectively reduced its debt in around MXN3 billion during 2023,
which will likely help the company to maintain conservative
leverage ratios in the next few years. Fitch expects Fortaleza's
net leverage to trend around 1.0x, without any major capex program
or dividend distribution.
Fortaleza's ratings reflect its medium-sized business scale in the
global cement industry with the backbone of its operations in
Mexico, a track record of good profitability and consistent FCF
generation. Fitch expects Fortaleza to remain proactive on its
liability management strategy to avoid short term refinancing
risks, and that it should continue to rely on its good access to
the local credit market in Mexico.
Fitch is withdrawing Fortaleza's IDRs for commercial reasons.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Diversified Medium-Size Player: Fortaleza's primary assets are
three cement plants in central Mexico with 3.75 million metric tons
(MT) of cement production capacity; a 55% stake in U.S.-based Giant
Cement Holding, Inc., which the company consolidate in its results;
and cement grinding facilities in southern Mexico, Costa Rica and
in El Salvador. Giant's capacity is approximately 2.8 million tons.
During 2023, around 79% of Fortaleza's EBITDA was generated in
Mexico, 18% in the U.S. and 3% in Central America.
Still Favorable Market Prospects: Fortaleza is expected to continue
to benefit from relatively favorable volume and pricing environment
on its main markets, Mexico and US. During 2023, the industry
strong price increases supported stronger operating cash flow
generation and helped the company to support inflationary pressure
and volumes volatilities. During 2023, Fortaleza's volumes
increased 5% in Mexico and 1% in US, while its respective revenues
increased 20% and 3%, respectively. For 2024, Fitch expects a
weaker price environment, yet to remain healthy to mitigate
inflation.
Sound Operating Cash Flow: Operating EBITDA is expected to remain
solid in 2024 and 2025 moving around MXN4.7 billion, up from MXN3.2
billion in 2022 and MXN4.5 billion in 2023 per the agency's
calculation (adjusted by IFRS16). For 2024-2025, Fitch estimates
adjusted EBITDA margin moving around 26%-27%. This margin compares
well with other cement players in the region.
Conservative Credit Profile: Fortaleza took advantage of the
stronger operating cash flow generation during 2023, lower capex
and MXN1.9 billion received from a capitalization of Giant, its US
related party, to paydown around MXN3 billion in debt. Fortaleza
has a track record of positive FCF generation that should hold for
the next three years excluding any major strategic capex plan or
dividend distribution.
For 2024 and 2025, Fortaleza's FCF should be MXN1 billion and
MXN1.2 billion, respectively, after average capex of MXN900
million. This FCF is expected to drive debt repayment helping to
sustain the deleverage trend. Fitch forecasts Fortaleza's adjusted
net debt/EBITDA ratio to be around 1.0x and 0.7x by YE 2024 and
2025, respectively. This represents a significant improvement from
2022 and 2023, at 2.8x and 1.2x.
Good Access to Local Debt Market: Fortaleza has improved its
financial flexibility over the past two years as being more
proactive to refinance its upcoming debt maturities within 12
months-18 months. The company has demonstrated good access to local
debt and capital markets, which helps to offset its relatively
larger exposure to medium term refinancing risks compared with
other companies with the same rating and/or sector. The increasing
stake of Grupo Carso in Fortaleza also benefits Fortaleza's
financial flexibility with its ongoing refinancing strategies.
Standalone Analysis: Fitch assesses Fortaleza on a standalone basis
from Grupo Carso (AAA[mex]), due to still weak legal, strategic and
operational incentives between the parent and the subsidiary. Fitch
also expects the links between Elementia Materiales S.A.P.I. de C.V
(Elementia) and Fortaleza to continue to wane over time as debt is
being repaid or refinanced. Currently, there are four financial
obligations with Elementia's guarantee, with a total amount of
MXN3.5 billion as of December 2023.
DERIVATION SUMMARY
Fortaleza's ratings reflect the company's scale as a mid-sized
company in the cement industry, with operations in Mexico being its
primary market, in addition to operations in the U.S. and Central
America. It also incorporates its track record of good
profitability, consistent free cash flow generation, and adequate
credit metrics.
When comparing Fortaleza to building materials and products
companies with relevant operations in Mexico such as CEMEX, S.A.B.
de C.V. (Cemex; AA[mex]/Positive), Grupo Lamosa, S.A.B. de C.V.
(Lamosa; AA[mex]/Stable), and Elementia Materiales, S. A.P.I. de
C.V. (Elementia; A[mex]/Stable); Cemex and Lamosa have superior
scale and geographic diversification, with operations in different
continents; they stand out for their international leadership in
terms of installed capacity and their ability to influence prices
in their main markets. Also, these companies, like Elementia, are
more diversified in terms of products and solutions for the
construction industry, which could partially mitigate the weakness
of other segments.
In terms of financial profile, Fortaleza has an average EBITDA
margin above 20%, above Cemex whose profitability is around 15%,
partly due to Fortaleza's greater focus on the Mexican market where
retail represents an important sales channel. Lamosa's
profitability is somewhat below Fortaleza's at around 20%. Fitch
expects Fortaleza, Cemex and Lamosa to maintain healthy financial
flexibility supported by positive FCF generation in the coming
years to allow them to reduce their level of indebtedness.
According to Fitch's calculations, Cemex and Lamosa ended 2023 with
net leverage close to 2.5x and Fortaleza closed at 1.2x.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
- Low single digit increase in Cement volumes in 2024 and 2025;
- EBITDA Margin around 26%-27% in 2024 and 2025;
- Capex around MXN900 million in 2024 and 2025;
- No dividend distribution;
- Proactive Liability Management Strategy debt within local credit
and debt market to avoid short-term refinancing risks.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:
- A larger scale and increased market position;
- Sustainable improvement in financial flexibility with stronger
liquidity position and no refinancing risks within 12 months-18
months;
- EBITDA margins sustainable above 27%;
- Total debt to EBITDA ratio sustained below 2.0x.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:
- A weakening of operating cash flow and FCF expectations that lead
to expectations of net debt to EBITDA being sustainable over 2.5x;
- Expectations of a sharp deterioration in Mexico's economic
environment leading to a significant contraction in the EBITDA
outlook;
- Large debt-funded acquisitions;
- Perception of weaker financial flexibility and ability to
refinance short-term debt at reasonable financial costs.
LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE
Medium Term Refinancing Risks Supported by Good Credit Access: Over
the past two years, Fortaleza has reduced its high exposure to
short term refinancing risks with recurring access to local capital
market. The company currently faces important debt amortizations
during 2025 ad 2026, in which Fitch expects the company to remain
proactive on its liability management strategy to avoid meaningful
short-term refinancing risks.
As of Dec. 31, 2023, the company had MXN2.1 billion in cash and
debt amortizations as follows: MXN957 million in 2024, MXN2.6
billion in 2025, MXN2.5 billion in 2026 and remaining MXN1.4
billion until 2027. Fortaleza's total debt was MXN7.6 as of 4Q23
and was mainly comprised of credit lines with BancoMext (32%),
Scotiabank (29%), Cebures (26%) and Santander (8%). The majority of
the company's debt is local-currency denominated (90%).
ISSUER PROFILE
Fortaleza Materiales, S.A.B. de C.V. produces cement and concrete
sold in bulk and in bag form. The company operates 17 cement plants
in the Americas with a distribution network covering three regions.
It serves customers throughout Mexico, the U.S., and Central
America. Fortaleza born from the spinoff of Elementia, and built
across the last seven years through M&A transactions and
maximization of synergies. The company is controlled Grupo Carso,
via Condumex (50.88%) and Grupo Kaluz (49.12%).
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Fortaleza
Materiales,
S.A.P.I. de C.V. LT IDR BB+ Upgrade BB
LT IDR WD Withdrawn BB+
LC LT IDR BB+ Upgrade BB
LC LT IDR WD Withdrawn BB+
Natl LT A+(mex)Upgrade A(mex)
Natl ST F1(mex)Affirmed F1(mex)
senior
unsecured Natl LT A+(mex)Upgrade A(mex)
senior
unsecured Natl ST F1(mex)Affirmed F1(mex)
TOTAL PLAY: Moody's Rates New $361.5MM Sr. Secured Notes 'Caa1'
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings assigned Caa1 rating to Total Play
Telecomunicaciones, S.A.P.I. de C.V. 's (Total Play)'s proposed up
to $361.5 million in Backed Senior Secured Global Notes due 2028.
Total Play's other ratings, including its Caa1 Corporate Family
Rating, and the existing Caa2 rating of its Backed Senior Unsecured
Global Notes due 2025 and 2028, and negative outlook remain
unchanged.
The proposed notes are offered in exchange for Total Play's 7.5%
senior unsecured notes due 2025 rated Caa2. The proposed secured
notes will have a higher coupon at 10.5% and amortization payments
beginning in 2026 (20% of principal payable in 2026, 30% in 2027
and 50% in 2028). The proposed exchange also includes a consent
solicitation to amend the 2025 senior unsecured notes indenture to
remove substantially all restrictive covenants.
The rating of the proposed senior secured notes assumes that the
final transaction documents will not be materially different from
draft legal documentation reviewed by Moody's to date and that
these agreements are legally valid, binding and enforceable. The
proposed notes will benefit from same collateral as other secured
debt; therefore, the new notes will rank pari passu with all other
secured debt obligations of Total Play.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The proposed transaction does not affect the company's Caa1
corporate family rating and the Caa2 on the senior unsecured debt
at this point. However, following the execution of the proposed
exchange offer, Moody's will assess the final capital structure and
ranking in the waterfall for the different instruments including
the remaining 2025 notes, if any.
Moody's views the proposed exchange to be a distressed exchange
under its criteria, as pushing the maturity date beyond the
November 2025 bond maturity in a tight funding environment
represents default avoidance and an economic loss relative to the
original promise to pay.
Pro forma for the proposed transaction, Total Play's near-term
liquidity will improve, reducing its refinancing risk, with close
to $647 million in debt coming due in 2024-25 that the company will
need to address, assuming full acceptance. Nonetheless, this amount
negatively compares with the company's liquidity sources that
include around $265 million as of December 2023 (including cash,
the master trust reserve and MXN300 million under the company's
committed facility with a non-regulated entity); and Moody's
expectation of slightly positive to neutral free cash flow (FCF)
over the same period.
On February 21, 2024, Total Play completed a private exchange for
$213.5 million (MXN3.7 billion) with a group of investors,
representing 37% of the company's $575 million in 7.5% senior
unsecured notes rated Caa2, due in 2025. Considering this exchange
and the proposed transaction, secured debt will be 72% and this
debt will be secured by 64% of current subscriber base. The
increase in the assigned subscribers to trust would reduce
flexibility to undertake additional secured debt. Nonetheless,
Total Play owns around MXN60,000 million (book value) in fixed
assets that mainly comprises the fiber optic network and which is
fully unencumbered.
Weak liquidity remains a key constraint to Total Play's Caa1 CFR,
given the company's reliance on external funding. The rating also
considers Total Play's relatively small size when compared to other
global rated peers; with 17.52% market share in broadband and
10.75% in Pay TV, in Mexico as of June 2023. Total Play is behind
larger operators including America Movil, S.A.B. de C.V. (Baa1
stable) and Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. (Baa3 stable). The rating also
incorporates the company's geographic concentration in only one
market and Moody's expectation of neutral to negative FCF (Moody's
adjustments include leases payments to capex) through 2024.
Total Play's Caa1 CFR reflects the company's high-quality network,
which is the only 100% fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) infrastructure in
Mexico; history of successful organic growth; and low churn of 1.6%
as of December 2023. The Caa1 rating also factors in the company´s
track record of growth, experienced management team and
Moody's-adjusted leverage of 3.2x and EBITDA margin of 43.3% for
the 12 months that ended December 2023.
The Caa2 rating on the company's senior unsecured notes
incorporates the effective subordination to Total Play's secured
debt. The senior unsecured notes represent the bulk of total
unsecured debt and benefit from the residual cash flows in the
waterfall after the repayment of the secured debt.
The negative outlook reflects uncertainties around the execution of
the company's liability management plan in the current tight
liquidity environment, increasing the risk of a debt restructuring
or a distressed exchange.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING
The ratings could be upgraded if Total Play materially improves its
liquidity securing alternative sources to address its debt
maturities through 2025 at least 12 months in advance.
Quantitatively, an upgrade would also require the maintenance of
leverage below 4.5x and (EBITDA - CAPEX) / Interest Expense above
1x.
Total Play's ratings could be downgraded if the company's liquidity
worsens further or the company is unable to refinance the debt
maturing in 2024 and 2025, including the proposed exchange,
increasing the risk of a distressed exchange or debt
restructuring.
The principal methodology used in this rating was
Telecommunications Service Providers published in November 2023.
Headquartered in Mexico, Total Play Telecomunicaciones, S.A.P.I. de
C.V. (Total Play) offers fixed-telephone, pay-TV and broadband
internet services to residential customers, and managed IT services
for business customers and government entities. As of December
2023, the company offered these services through its fully owned
fiber optic network, which passes 17.6 million homes with 27%
penetration and 4.7 million subscribers, generating revenue of
MXN40,503 million (about $2.3 billion) for the 12 months that ended
December 2023.
===========
P A N A M A
===========
PANAMA: Fitch Lowers LongTerm IDR to 'BB+', Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Panama's Long-Term Foreign Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BB+' from 'BBB-'. The Rating
Outlook is Stable.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Ratings Downgrade: Panama's downgrade to 'BB+' reflects fiscal and
governance challenges that have been aggravated by the events
surrounding closure of the country's largest mine. Large fiscal
deficits and revenue underperformance have driven some of the
largest rises in government debt/GDP and interest/revenues among
peers since 2019 before the pandemic. This has constrained
counter-cyclical policy space that was already more limited in the
context of dollarization, and poses a greater vulnerability in
light of the sovereign's heavy reliance on external markets for
funding. The Minera Panama copper mine closure further complicates
the fiscal outlook and highlights growing governance challenges, in
Fitch's view.
Fitch expects most of the likely winners of the May 2024 elections
to make some efforts to address these fiscal challenges. However,
an expected growth slowdown, a tense social backdrop and party
fragmentation are likely to constrain the scope for assertive
action, and re-building fiscal space and credibility would take
time.
Counterbalancing these fiscal and institutional weaknesses, and
supporting the Stable Outlook, are Panama's robust medium-term
growth prospects, which Fitch does not presently expect to be
greatly impaired by the mining episode, and are centered around
logistics activities and the strategic asset of the Panama Canal.
The ratings are also supported by high per-capita GDP, and low
inflation and macro-financial stability anchored by dollarization.
Mine Closure: In November 2023, Panama's Supreme Court overturned a
contract with First Quantum Minerals for operation of the Minera
Panama copper mine, following social backlash to congressional
approval of the contract. The shutdown of the mine will
significantly dent growth this year, given it represents around 5%
of GDP (via direct and indirect effects) and 7% of current external
receipts. It will also deprive the government of 0.5%-of-GDP in
expected annual royalties and raises the threat of a costly
arbitration.
No matter the outcome of the election, it remains uncertain if and
when the mine could reopen. And this is unlikely to happen quickly,
as it would require a new administration to achieve a major shift
in popular sentiment and overcome legal hurdles, such as
overturning a recently enacted mining moratorium.
Fiscal Pressures Persist: The non-financial public sector deficit
fell to 3% of GDP in 2023, in line with the fiscal rule (LRSF)
limit, but was around 4.5% of GDP net of large extraordinary
receipts. The 2024 budget projects resilient revenues despite
slower growth and drought affecting the Canal, and authorizes large
spending increases to comply with legal mandates for education and
salaries, with an implicit deficit of 5.6%.
The authorities hope to heavily under-execute the budget to comply
with the 2% LRSF limit, but this appears doubtful in Fitch's view.
Fitch projects the deficit will rise to 4.7% on the loss of the
one-offs, weaker Canal revenues due to the drought, higher interest
costs, and other spending increases (with less under-execution than
assumed by the authorities). These pressures are partially balanced
by cuts to fuel and social subsidies (0.8% of GDP).
Fiscal Consolidation Challenges: Consolidation prospects will hinge
on the next government's plans. Tax underperformance has been a key
fiscal challenge, driving a 3pp fall in the tax/GDP ratio to 7.0%
in the decade through 2023. Efforts to tackle tax evasion are
underway that could help, but rate increases or cuts in exemptions
might be necessary for major improvement, and would be politically
difficult, in its view.
Most candidates have pledged efforts to trim operating
expenditures, but if may be difficult to achieve large savings
given demands for improved public services. Capex could be
difficult to reduce significantly given outlays for ongoing
projects, those already completed under "deferred payment"
mechanisms, and new projects being pledged by most candidates.
The social security system (CSS) has a growing deficit, and focus
has mainly been on ways to fund a sub-regime (SEBD) set to exhaust
its reserves soon, with little appetite for parametric reforms to
contain the underlying pressures.
External Market Reliance: Meeting relatively high financing needs
will rely heavily on external bond markets and multilaterals, given
the local market is relatively shallow and represented just 9% of
net borrowing in the last five years. Panama saw strong demand for
a recent USD3.1 billion issuance, but at much higher costs,
highlighting a vulnerability to further adverse shifts in investor
confidence. A sovereign wealth fund (with equity of 1.7% of GDP)
and cash reserves (mostly held by social security) offer some
financing flexibility.
Rising Interest Burden: Fitch projects gross general government
debt will resume an upward path in 2024 as growth slows and the
fiscal deficit widens, jumping to 60.7% of GDP. On a consolidated
basis (net of CSS holdings), Fitch projects debt to rise to 56.0%,
above the 53.9% 'BB' median, and to over 330% as a share of
revenues, well above the 'BB' median of 190%.
Further risks could arise from additional borrowing that may be
needed to settle arrears reported by the private sector, or a
rescue of the SEBD should this rely on borrowing as opposed to
asset transfers. Interest/revenue is projected to rise to around
17.5% this year, one of the highest among 'BB' and BBB' peers and
nearly double the level of a decade ago, due to rising interest
costs and erosion in the revenue base.
Fiscal Credibility Challenges: Shortcomings in Panama's fiscal
framework persist. The authorities have not altered fiscal targets
since a major relaxation in 2020, but compliance has depended on
some one-off items and accounting maneuvers. Budgets are not well
anchored around fiscal targets, as seen in the 2024 budget, which
authorizes a major spending increase while also assuming this will
not be executed to achieve consolidation goals.
Other legal mandates are not being delivered, including updated
medium-term fiscal frameworks and audits by an independent fiscal
council. Data shortcomings, historical revisions, and episodes of
arrears also cloud visibility on the fiscal picture.
Governance Challenges: Issues around governance represent a growing
credit challenge, having hindered progress on needed fiscal reforms
(e.g. pension) and manifested in major social protests in 2022 and
2023. Panama's Worldwide Governance Score has slipped from the 55th
to 48th percentile in the five years through 2022, with large falls
in sub-scores for "government effectiveness" and "control of
corruption", and may not yet fully reflect the upheaval surrounding
Minera Panama. However, Panama's efforts to strengthen its
anti-money-laundering regime enabled it to exit several "grey
lists" in recent months.
Favorable Growth Outlook: Real GDP grew 7.3% in 2023, broadly
closing the large output gap left by the pandemic. The mine
protests had a major impact on activity, but this was offset by
strong performance otherwise. Fitch expects growth to slow to 1.5%
in 2024, reflecting a direct hit (3pp) from the mine closure and a
moderate impact from the drought. Second-round effects from the
mine closure pose some further downside risk, but Panama's
better-than-expected performance in recent years poses an upside.
Fitch's base case is for growth returning to 4.5% in 2025. However,
it is uncertain where Panama's post-pandemic trend growth will
settle given the higher interest rate environment (affecting the
key construction sector), narrower space for public works projects,
and the effect the dispute around the mine (a flagship FDI project)
could have on confidence and the business environment. Fitch does
not expect the mine dispute to undermine growth potential, as it
affects an enclave of the economy rather than the mainstay
logistics activities, but this represents a risk.
Rising External Debt: The current account deficit rose to an
estimated 7.4% of GDP in 2023 from 4.4% in 2022, although this was
due to the build-up of inventories at free-trade-zones. This should
unwind in 2024, helping the current account deficit. However, there
will be some offsetting pressure from loss of the export receipts
from the mine. Panama's current account deficit has a record of
adjusting smoothly and quickly, but has lifted net external debt to
an estimated 50% of GDP at end-2023. This is one of the highest in
the 'BB' and 'BBB' categories, posing some vulnerability to shifts
in external financing conditions.
Elections Loom: The May 5 elections will determine a new president
and congress for the next five-year term. Recent polls show voter
support spread widely among many candidates, with Jose Raul Mulino
of the Realizando Metas party recently emerging as the front-runner
after taking over the candidacy of ex-president Ricardo Martinelli,
who was disqualified. Broad policy continuity appears likely given
narrow divergence among parties in Panama on economic matters.
However, the political and social backdrop for addressing difficult
issues appears challenging given party fragmentation, recent social
tensions and an economic slowdown.
ESG - Governance: Panama has ESG Relevance Scores (RS) of '5 [+]'
for Political Stability and Rights, and '5' for the Rule of Law,
Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance
Indicators (WBGI) have in Fitch's proprietary Sovereign Rating
Model (SRM). Panama has a medium WBGI percentile score of 48.1,
reflecting a recent track record of peaceful political transitions,
a moderate level of rights for participation in the political
process, moderate institutional capacity and rule of law, and a
high level of corruption.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Public Finances: A significant increase in the government
debt/GDP and interest/revenue burdens, or material further erosion
in market borrowing conditions;
- Macro: Reduced confidence in Panama's ability to sustain
relatively high economic growth rates;
- Structural: Further social instability or political gridlock that
adversely affect the economy and public finances.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Public Finances: Structural fiscal consolidation that puts
government debt/GDP and interest/revenues on a firm downward path;
- Structural: Evidence of improving governance, for example via
enhancements in fiscal policy credibility and predictability.
SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)
Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Panama a score equivalent to a
rating of 'BB' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR
scale.
Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM
to arrive at the final the Long-Term Foreign-Currency LT FC IDR by
applying its Qualitative Overlay (QO), relative to SRM data and
output, as follows:
- Structural: Fitch has introduced a -1 notch to reflect
shortcomings in governance that are not fully captured in the
Worldwide Governance Indicators that feed into the SRM. These have
been reflected by the mine closure, recent social protests, and
weaknesses in fiscal policy management that is of greater relevance
in the absence of independent monetary policy.
- Macro: +1 notch, to offset the deterioration of GDP growth
volatility variable in the SRM due to the impact of the pandemic,
which Fitch expects will be temporary, and would otherwise add
excess volatility to the rating.
- Public Finances: +1 notch, to reflect that the SRM classifies
public debt as fully denominated in foreign currency due to
Panama's use of the U.S. dollar, but the well-entrenched
dollarization regime mitigates foreign exchange risk on the
sovereign balance sheet.
Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating
model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centered
averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score
equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking
qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM
output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within its
criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected
in the SRM.
COUNTRY CEILING
The Country Ceiling for Panama has been downgraded to 'A+' from
'AA-', +6 notches above the LT FC IDR. This uplift reflects Fitch's
view Panama's full dollarization is a longstanding and entrenched
part of its economic model, which has encouraged private-sector
entities to maintain strong liquidity buffers of their own in the
absence of a lender-of-last-resort, and reduces the sovereign's
incentives to impose transfer restrictions.
Fitch's Country Ceiling Model produced a starting point uplift of
+2 notches above the IDR. Fitch's rating committee applied a
+4-notch qualitative adjustment to this, under the Long-Term
Institutional Characteristics, reflecting Panama's fully dollarized
economy.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Panama has an ESG Relevance Score of '5 [+]' for Political
Stability and Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the
highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to
the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As Panama
has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance
Indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.
Panama has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Rule of Law,
Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as
World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's
SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key
rating driver with a high weight. As Panama has a percentile rank
below 50 for the respective Governance Indicators, this has a
negative impact on the credit profile.
Panama has an ESG Relevance Score of '4 [+]' for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the
World Bank Governance Indicators is relevant to the rating and a
rating driver. As Panama has a percentile rank above 50 for the
respective Governance Indicator, this has a positive impact on the
credit profile.
Panama has an ESG Relevance Score of '4 [+]' for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and
is a rating driver for Panama, as for all sovereigns. As Panama has
a track record of 20+ years without a restructuring of public debt
and captured in Fitch's SRM variable, this has a positive impact on
the credit profile.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Panama LT IDR BB+ Downgrade BBB-
ST IDR B Downgrade F3
Country Ceiling A+ Downgrade AA-
senior
unsecured LT BB+ Downgrade BBB-
=====================================
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
=====================================
CL FINANCIAL: CLICO Credit Union Launches Youth Arm
---------------------------------------------------
Trinidad and Tobago Guardian reports that the Clico Credit Union
has launched its youth arm.
President Ashraff Ali, who spearheaded the initiative explained
this was part of his vision for the future, as he highlighted the
pivotal role of young members in driving innovation and bridging
intergenerational gaps, according to Trinidad and Tobago Guardian.
During his address at the recent launch which took place at the
Brix Hotel, Port-of-Spain, Ali also hailed the work of the credit
union's education committee, who he noted has recognized the vital
importance of engaging and empowering young members in shaping the
future of the credit union, the report notes.
Saying that youth involvement was important, as this would offer
fresh perspectives and unwavering commitment to challenging the
status quo, Ali added youths were the architects of the credit
union's future success, the report relays.
CEO of the organization Holland Bronte-Tinkew echoed the
president's sentiments, as he emphasised the significance of
investing in youth and building them for both the present and the
future, the report discloses.
Minister of Youth Development and National Service Foster Cummings,
who was also present at the launch, hailed the foresight of the
credit union, the report says.
"If not young people, then who? Investing in youth is just about
the best investment you can take up so as to ensure continuity," he
said, notes the report.
Meanwhile, Pennelope Beckles-Robinson, Minister of Planning and
Development who also spoke, stated the importance and the value of
saving as she shared her positive personal experience of having
been a member of a credit union for more than 30 years, the report
relays.
Maritza Da Silva, senior manager of business development and
marketing at CCU reaffirmed that the objectives of the youth arm
was to empower, educate and support youths in their journey towards
financial independence, the report notes.
She explained the establishment of this platform underscored
commitment to fostering financial literacy, youth engagement, and
entrepreneurship within community, the report says.
The credit union appointed a seven-member youth arm committee who
received their certificates and letters of appointment, the report
adds.
About CL Financial/CLICO
CL Financial was one of the largest privately held conglomerate in
Trinidad and Tobago. It was originally founded as an insurance
company and has since expanded to be the holding company for a
diverse group of companies and subsidiaries.
CL Financial is the parent company of Colonial Life Insurance
Company (Trinidad) Limited (Clico). CLICO is now the Company's
insurance division.
CL Financial however experienced a liquidity crisis in 2009 that
resulted in a "bail out" agreement by which the government of
Trinidad and Tobago loaned the company funds ($7.3 billion as of
December 2010) to maintain its ability to operate, and obtained a
majority of seats on the company's board of directors.
The companies to be bailed out were: CL Financial Ltd (CLF);
Colonial Life Insurance Company Ltd (CLICO); Caribbean Money Market
Brokers Ltd (CMMB); Clico Investment Bank (CIB) and British
American Insurance Company (Trinidad) Ltd (BAICO).
As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in July
2017, CL Financial Limited shareholders vowed to pay back a TT$15
billion (US$2.2 billion) debt to the Trinidad Government.
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
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USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.
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