/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/240321.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Thursday, March 21, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 59
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
ARGENTINA: Industrial Output Plunges Again as Austerity Bites
ARGENTINA: Just Starting Talks w/ IMF Over New Program, Caputo Says
B R A Z I L
BRF SA: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' CFR & Alters Outlook to Positive
IOCHPE-MAXION SA: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' CFR, Outlook Stable
MARFRIG GLOBAL: Moody's Affirms 'Ba2' CFR, Alters Outlook to Stable
OEC SA: Fitch Downgrades LT IDR to 'CC'
C O L O M B I A
CREDISERVICIOS SA: Fitch Cuts IDRs to 'RD'
D O M I N I C A
DOMINICA: IMF Says Economy Fully Recovered to Pre-Pandemic Levels
D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Airfare Costs, Main Obstacle to Tourism
[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Works with IDB to Become a Logistics Hub
P U E R T O R I C O
LANDMARK COMMERCIAL: Plan Exclusivity Period Extended to March 29
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
GUARDIAN MEDIA: Loss-Making Position Worsens, $11.2M in the Red
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Young Rebukes Harford's Criticism
U R U G U A Y
HDI SEGUROS: Moody's Ups Local Currency IFS Rating to Ba1
V E N E Z U E L A
CITGO PETROLEUM: Weak Bids Spur Venezuela to Pitch Alternative
X X X X X X X X
LATAM: Governors OK Changes for IDB Group to Support the Region
- - - - -
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A R G E N T I N A
=================
ARGENTINA: Industrial Output Plunges Again as Austerity Bites
-------------------------------------------------------------
Reuters reports that Argentina's industrial output slid 12.4% in
January from a year earlier, the second straight month it has
plunged in double digits amid a tough austerity and cost-cutting
drive since new libertarian President Javier Milei took office in
December.
The decline was the eighth straight month falling, official data
showed, amid a prolonged economic contraction and soaring inflation
running at over 250%, that has badly hurt consumer spending power
and consumption, according to Reuters.
The INDEC statistics agency also said industrial production
decreased 1.3% from December in seasonally adjusted terms, the
report notes.
Latin America's third-largest economy has been hit by soaring
inflation that clocked in at over 20% in the month of January
alone, while foreign reserves are depleted and the peso is only
held in check by strict currency controls, the report relays.
Milei, who took office on Dec. 10, has looked to tame inflation
with tough cost-cutting, which has helped improve the country's
fiscal position, but hurt economic growth, the report notes. A
sharp currency devaluation also dented the value of people's
savings, the report adds.
According to the report, in January, 14 out of the 16 manufacturing
categories showed year-on-year declines, headed by a 32.5% drop in
"other equipment, appliances and instruments," which includes
electronics and computers, and a 25% decrease in production of
"metal products, machinery and equipment."
But the largest hit on output came from the "food and beverages"
sector, which fell 6.4% year over year, INDEC said, notes Reuters.
"The main negative impact in the month was seen in the production
of other food products, which shows a year-on-year decrease of
11.6%," INDEC added, reflecting a drop in sales in soft drinks,
snacks and condiments, dressings and sauces, the report notes.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
The IMF's executive board completed on August 23, 2023, the fifth
and six reviews of Argentina's 30-month Extended Fund Facility
(EFF), and approved a US$7.5-billion disbursement to Argentina as
part of the larger program, which refinances payments Argentina
owes the institution from a previous bailout that failed to
stabilize the economy in 2018. Argentina would receive another IMF
disbursement in November of about US$2.75 billion pending another
staff-level agreement and board approval.
S&P Global Ratings, on March 15, 2024, raised its local currency
sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and
its national scale rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its
long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from
'CCC-' and affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The
outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. In addition, S&P
revised its transfer and convertibility assessment to 'CCC' from
'CCC-'.
S&P said the stable outlook on the long-term ratings balances the
risks posed by pronounced economic imbalances and policy
uncertainties with the favorable change in near-term debt service
obligations. S&P also expect no further debt exchanges that it
would likely consider to be distressed.
Fitch Ratings upgraded on June 13, 2023, Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency (FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CC' from
'C'and affirmed the Long-Term Local Currency (LC) IDR at 'CCC-'.
Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a
rating of 'CCC+' or below.
The upgrade of the FC IDR reflects that Fitch no longer deems a
default-like process to have begun, as the authorities have not
signaled a clear intention to follow through with an intra-public
debt swap announced in March. The new 'CC' rating signals a default
event of some sort appears probable in the coming years, regardless
of the outcome of upcoming elections. The affirmation of the LC IDR
at 'CCC-' follows the peso debt swap in June that Fitch did not
deem to be a "distressed debt exchange" (DDE).
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.
ARGENTINA: Just Starting Talks w/ IMF Over New Program, Caputo Says
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Buenos Aires Times reports that Economy Minister Luis Caputo says
that Argentina's government is holding talks with the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) and that the multilateral lender is open to a
new program.
"We are talking to the Fund. We are just starting to talk about the
new program, but we haven't agreed on anything at all. Not even if
it's going to involve more money or not," revealed Caputo, as he
spoke during a high-profile address at the AmCham 2024 Summit in
Buenos Aires, according to Buenos Aires Times.
"They always said they were open to a new program and, as part of
that, we are talking," he told those gathered at the event, which
brings together representatives from US companies active in
Argentina, the report notes.
Buenos Aires Times relays that Caputo's remarks came after
President Javier Milei again put the dollarization of Argentina's
economy on the agenda. During a television interview, the La
Libertad Avanza leader declared that he would remove currency
controls overnight if he had US$15 billion, the report discloses.
According to the president, Argentina's economy will then "take
off," the report notes.
Buenos Aires Times says that quizzed about the statements during an
engaging interview with AmCham President Facundo Gomez Minujin, a
senior country officer at JP Morgan, Caputo said that the cash
required by Milei could "come from anywhere," the IMF included.
"Dollarization or currency competition?" the host asked the economy
minister.
"The president started talking about currency competition before
the elections, perhaps it went unnoticed by many," responded
Caputo, the report says.
"The idea is to go there, the objective is to try to lower
inflation more at a level of shock. We are not inclined to think of
a gradual monetary scenario, people have no tolerance for a gradual
decline, inflation has to come down," he added, the report relays.
Buenos Aires Times notes that he added that currency competition
would imply a free float, when the conditions are right. He refused
to put a date on the topic.
"We do know that it will work and it will lower inflation, and it
will allow for a faster recovery of the economy," argued Caputo,
the report relays.
"It's very important to remove the cepo," he said, using the word
that refers to currency controls. "But we're not going to take
unnecessary risks," he added.
High-Profile
The report discloses that Caputo was the headline speaker of an
event featuring many high-profile figures from President Javier
Milei's government.
Foreign Minister Diana Mondino and US Ambassador to Argentina Marc
Stanley were among those talking up the potential for bilateral
relations, with the latter declaring the nation is a "natural
partner" for Washington, the report says.
Stanley, who highlighted the numerous visits made by US officials
to Argentina since Milei took office, said US President Joe Biden's
administration is "very interested in economic reforms already
underway" and would support the government's commitment to reform,
the report relays.
He stressed, however, that the government in Buenos Aires should
look out for the nation's most vulnerable and ensure they are not
punished during the reform push, the report notes.
In his speech opening the conclave, Gomez Minujin said that it is
clear that Argentina needs "a deep political transformation," the
report relays.
The preceding government's "formulas and recipes" did not work, he
argued, leaving behind a country without growth, the report notes.
Though "today we face significant challenges," he added.
He was among a number of voices to call for the backing of
President Milei's proposed 'Pacto del 25 de Mayo' laying out ground
rules for provincial governments to observe, the report discloses.
Buenos Aires city Mayor Jorge Macri also echoed that call.
"I want to guarantee that I will be there on 25 May, because I
believe in the need to find structural agreements that give
certainty, above all to those who invest, develop and have the
immense responsibility and opportunity to generate wealth in
Argentina," said the City mayor, the report relays.
"The reconstruction of Argentina calls to us all. We can't let
another possibility pass us by," agreed Gomez Minujin, the report
adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
The IMF's executive board completed on August 23, 2023, the fifth
and six reviews of Argentina's 30-month Extended Fund Facility
(EFF), and approved a US$7.5-billion disbursement to Argentina as
part of the larger program, which refinances payments Argentina
owes the institution from a previous bailout that failed to
stabilize the economy in 2018. Argentina would receive another IMF
disbursement in November of about US$2.75 billion pending another
staff-level agreement and board approval.
S&P Global Ratings, on March 15, 2024, raised its local currency
sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC/C' from 'SD/SD' and
its national scale rating to 'raB+' from 'SD'. S&P also raised its
long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC' from
'CCC-' and affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency rating. The
outlook on the long-term ratings is stable. In addition, S&P
revised its transfer and convertibility assessment to 'CCC' from
'CCC-'.
S&P said the stable outlook on the long-term ratings balances the
risks posed by pronounced economic imbalances and policy
uncertainties with the favorable change in near-term debt service
obligations. S&P also expect no further debt exchanges that it
would likely consider to be distressed.
Fitch Ratings upgraded on June 13, 2023, Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency (FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CC' from
'C'and affirmed the Long-Term Local Currency (LC) IDR at 'CCC-'.
Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a
rating of 'CCC+' or below.
The upgrade of the FC IDR reflects that Fitch no longer deems a
default-like process to have begun, as the authorities have not
signaled a clear intention to follow through with an intra-public
debt swap announced in March. The new 'CC' rating signals a default
event of some sort appears probable in the coming years, regardless
of the outcome of upcoming elections. The affirmation of the LC IDR
at 'CCC-' follows the peso debt swap in June that Fitch did not
deem to be a "distressed debt exchange" (DDE).
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.
===========
B R A Z I L
===========
BRF SA: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' CFR & Alters Outlook to Positive
--------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed BRF S.A.'s Ba3 corporate family rating
and the Ba3 ratings on its senior unsecured notes. The outlook
changed to positive from stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The change in outlook to positive from stable reflects the
improvement in credit metrics observed in 2023, reflecting the
reduction of absolute debt levels. Total financial debt declined to
BRL20.4 billion at the end of 2023 from BRL23.5 billion at the end
of 2022, which reduces liquidity risk and increases the company's
flexibility to continue to focus on operational efficiencies while
demand gradually recovers in key markets for BRF, namely Brazil and
international markets. The positive outlook reflects Moody's
expectation that BRF will be able to leverage its operations and
benefit from a gradual recovery in its key markets during 2024,
supported by lower financial leverage and strong liquidity, which
will lead to positive free cash flow generation.
The recovery in operational performance is supported by a
combination of external factors, such as lower grain prices and
better prices in Brazil and for exports, which help improve
margins. The initiatives implemented by the company will also
materially improve efficiencies, which have already resulted in
gains of BRL2.2 billion in 2023.
Moreover, BRF has reduced liquidity risk through liability
management initiatives and debt payment. BRF raised BRL5.4 billion
in July 2023 with a capital increase, which allowed the company to
fully redeem its senior unsecured notes due 2024 and part of the
2026 totaling USD500 million and to repay the BRL1 billion CRA due
in December 2023. At the end of 2023, cash and equivalents of
BRL10.2 billion covered debt maturities through 2028, which reduces
refinancing risks. Moreover, liquidity is further enhanced by a
fully available revolver credit facility of BRL1.5 billion due in
October 2024.
BRF ratings remains supported by its strong business profile and
leadership in both processed foods in Brazil and global poultry
exports. The company's good liquidity and comfortable debt
amortization schedule also support the Ba3 ratings. Offsetting
these positive attributes are the relatively low geographic
diversity in terms of production footprint, as most of BRF's plants
and production facilities are in Brazil, and heavy concentration in
poultry, which makes the company strongly exposed to grain prices
and currency volatility, given the large share of exports in
revenues.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
An upgrade would be considered if BRF is able to sustain operating
performance at healthy levels, with positive free cash flow
generation while maintaining financial discipline towards capital
allocation. An upward rating movement would require BRF to maintain
a strong liquidity position and further reduce leverage, with total
adjusted debt/EBITDA reaching and staying at 3.5x or below, and
CFO/debt trending towards 20% and above.
A downgrade could result from a deterioration in BRF's operating
performance, with, for example, crop disruptions leading to higher
grain prices or a global oversupply of poultry and pork pressuring
margins, or disruption in production coming from bird flu. Weak
demand in key markets, such as Brazil, could also affect
profitability. A deterioration in liquidity position, with weaker
cash flow limiting the company's ability reduce leverage, could
also prompt a negative rating action. Quantitatively, a downgrade
could also occur if total adjusted debt/EBITDA remains above 4x on
a sustained basis and CFO/debt stays below 15% on a prolonged
basis.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Protein and
Agriculture published in November 2021.
BRF S.A. is one of the largest food companies globally and posted
consolidated net revenue of BRL53.6 billion ($10.7 billion,
considering average exchange rate) for 2023. BRF's business
profile combines frozen products, in natura proteins - mainly
poultry and pork - margarines, cold cuts, lunch meats, ingredients
and animal feed, including a large portfolio of value-added
products. The company operates 44 plants, 103 distribution centers
and two innovation centers in the world. BRF also has a strong
presence in the export markets, with a strong focus on the Halal
and Asian markets. BRF exports to more than 120 countries and has a
leading position in global poultry exports. Marfrig Global Foods
S.A. currently owns 50.08% of BRF.
IOCHPE-MAXION SA: Moody's Affirms 'Ba3' CFR, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed Iochpe-Maxion S.A. (Iochpe-Maxion)'s
Ba3 corporate family rating and the Ba3 backed senior unsecured
rating of its $400 million sustainability-linked notes due 2028
co-issued by Iochpe-Maxion Austria GmbH and Maxion Wheels de
Mexico, S. de R.L. de C.V., and fully and unconditionally
guaranteed by Iochpe-Maxion. The outlook for the ratings is
stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Iochpe-Maxion's Ba3 ratings reflect the company's size, scale and
position as a leading global supplier of steel and aluminum wheels
for light and commercial vehicles, and as a major provider of
structural components in the Americas; its good geographic
diversification; and long-standing relationships with original
equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The ratings also incorporate
Iochpe-Maxion's adequate corporate governance standards,
experienced management team and strengthened financial policies.
The company's adequate liquidity after several liability management
initiatives since the beginning of 2021 also supports its rating.
Iochpe-Maxion's cash position covers all of its short-term debt
maturities.
The rating also reflects Iochpe-Maxion's ability to expand its
market share and its track record of robust revenue growth, even
when the operating environment is difficult for the global
automotive industry; and its adequate credit metrics, with
Moody's-adjusted leverage ranging between 3.0x and 4.0x through
economic cycles.
Iochpe-Maxion's ratings are constrained by its limited free cash
flow (FCF) generation as a result of the industry's thin margins
and high capital intensity. Additional rating constraints include
the company's history of growth through leveraged acquisitions,
although it is likely to focus on organic growth in the next few
years; and its exposure to the cyclicality of the automotive
industry and the volatility in the prices of raw materials (steel
and alumina). The company's exposure to a commoditized product
offering and the bargaining power of large OEMs is also credit
negative because it increases pricing pressure and limits margin
expansion.
In 2023, Iochpe-Maxion's revenue declined to BRL15 billion from
BRL16.9 billion in 2022, reflecting lower commercial vehicle
production in Brazil as part of the transition to Euro 6, and lower
sales prices following reduced raw material costs. The company's
profitability also declined, with Moody's-adjusted EBITDA margin
falling to 9.4% in 2023 from 10.4% in 2022. Moody's- adjusted
leverage increased to 5.0x in 2023, compared with 3.9x in 2022, but
Moody's expects it to gradually decrease in the next 12-18 months
as Iochpe-Maxion's operating performance recover following a pickup
in commercial vehicles production in Brazil. Moody's expects
Iochpe-Maxion's revenue to increase to BRL15.5-16.0 billion in 2024
and 2025, while EBITDA margin will recover to 11.0-12.0% in the
same period. Adjusted gross leverage will improve to 3.5-4.0x, with
stable debt levels and higher EBITDA stream.
LIQUIDITY
Iochpe-Maxion has adequate liquidity. The company's cash position
of BRL3.0 billion as of year-end 2023 is sufficient to cover all
short-term debt maturities by 1.8x, and the company still has a
BRL500 million committed revolving credit facility due in April
2025. Iochpe-Maxion continues to work on additional refinancing
initiatives to lengthen its debt amortization schedule further,
such as the latest issuance of debentures approved by the board in
the amount of BRL750 million to refinance upcoming debt
amortization.
The company's liquidity has improved since the beginning of 2020,
reflecting several initiatives to improve its debt amortization
schedule. Moody's expects Iochpe-Maxion to generate positive FCF in
the next few years despite a capital spending of about BRL550
million per year, but its internal cash generation will remain
limited by the industry's thin margins and capital intensity. The
company's bylaws have established a dividend payout of 37% of net
income, above the 25% payout required by Brazilian laws, and
historically, Iochpe-Maxion has maintained an adequate buffer under
incurrence financial covenants applicable to part of its total
outstanding debt, setting a maximum reported net leverage of 3.5x
(2.9x at the end of 2023).
RATING OUTLOOK
The stable rating outlook reflects Moody's expectations that
Iochpe-Maxion's profitability and leverage will remain adequate in
the next 12-18 months despite potential market volatility; and that
the company will prudently manage debt refinancing, capital
spending and dividend distributions to preserve its liquidity.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Iochpe-Maxion's rating could be upgraded if its profitability
improves, with adjusted leverage below 3.0x, and its interest
coverage ratio (EBITA/interest expense) approaches 3.5x on a
sustained basis. For an upgrade, Iochpe-Maxion would have to
maintain adequate liquidity, with cash coverage of short-term debt
above 1.0x on a sustained basis; and positive FCF generation, which
would help the company withstand the volatility in its end
markets.
Iochpe-Maxion's rating could be downgraded if its profitability
deteriorates, with an EBITA margin below 8%, while its adjusted
leverage is maintained above 4.0x and its FCF generation remains
negative without any prospect of improvement. A deterioration in
the company's liquidity could also lead to a rating downgrade.
Weaker financial policies — reflected in funding concentrated in
short-term facilities, a sizable debt-funded acquisition or a large
shareholder distribution — would also strain the rating. Finally,
an increase in the proportion of secured debt compared with
unsecured debt would also lead to a downgrade of the rating of the
unsecured notes.
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in Cruzeiro, Brazil, Iochpe-Maxion S.A.
(Iochpe-Maxion) is the largest global producer of steel wheels for
light and commercial vehicles, is among the top 10 global producers
of aluminum wheels for light vehicles, and is a leading producer of
side rails and chassis in the Americas. The company has 33 plants
located in 14 countries in Europe, South America, North America,
Asia and Africa, with around 50 million wheels produced per year.
Iochpe-Maxion also has a 19.5% interest in an associated company
that produces freight cars, railway wheels and castings, and
industrial castings in Brazil. In 2023, the company generated
BRL15.0 billion ($3.0 billion) in net revenue and BRL1.4 billion
($280 million) in Moody's-adjusted EBITDA.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Automotive
Suppliers published in May 2021.
MARFRIG GLOBAL: Moody's Affirms 'Ba2' CFR, Alters Outlook to Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings affirmed Marfrig Global Foods S.A.'s Ba2 corporate
family rating and changed the outlook to stable from negative.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The change in outlook to stable indicates that Moody's does not
expect to see further deterioration in Marfrig's credit metrics
during 2024. Even though the US beef segment will remain pressured
by limited cattle availability and higher costs, the South America
beef segment will continue to benefit from more favorable
fundamentals in costs and export markets. Moreover, BRF S.A. (BRF),
which is fully consolidated in Marfrig's financials, will show an
improved performance in 2024 compared to 2022-23, which will also
support Marfrig's consolidated credit metrics. During 2023, Marfrig
increased its share in BRF to 50.08% through the acquisition of
additional shares in the market and through the contribution to the
BRL5.4 billion capital increase at BRF, which was funded by a
capital increase of BRL2.2 billion at Marfrig.
The stable outlook also incorporates Moody's assumption that
Marfrig will maintain adequate liquidity over the next 12 to 18
months and that the company will maintain its financial discipline
on capital allocation.
Although consolidated metrics such as leverage and interest
coverage have been relatively weak, Marfrig has announced an asset
sale in South America (BRL7.5 billion) in August 2023, and the
proceeds from that divestment will reportedly be directed to debt
reduction. Marfrig received BRL 1.5 billion at the agreement and
will receive the remaining BRL 6 billion at the closing of the
transaction, which is subject to the approval of anti-trust
authorities in Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Chile. Based on
Moody's projections, if Marfrig is able to complete the asset
divestiture and use the proceeds to reduce debt levels, pro-forma
leverage will decline to 4.0x at the end of 2024, from 6.8x in last
twelve months (LTM) ended September 2023. If the sale is not
completed, leverage will be 4.8x at the end of 2024 – still an
improvement compared to LTM Sept 2023 levels.
The Ba2 rating remains supported by Marfrig's scale as the second
largest beef producer globally, its good geographic footprint and
diversification in terms of raw material sourcing, which reduce
weather-related risks and animal diseases. The 50.08% share in BRF
supports a larger geographic and segment diversification into
poultry and pork. These strengths are balanced against the
company's narrow focus in the cyclical beef industry, which is
characterized by volatile earnings, and the reliance on the North
America segment for cash flows.
Marfrig has adequate liquidity to weather the challenging
environment over the next twelve months, supported by a cash
balance of $4.7 billion (consolidated) at the end of September
2023, which covers all debt maturities through the end of 2025, and
solid positive free cash flow generation in the past three years.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING
An upward rating movement would require Marfrig to maintain a
strong liquidity position, a track record of financial discipline
and to increase its financial flexibility by adjusting its capital
structure with reduction in debt levels as such that even in
periods of a market downturn, leverage would stay at or below
Moody's total adjusted debt/EBITDA 2.5x and interest coverage,
measured by EBITA/interest expense, sustained at 5.5x and above. An
upgrade would also require the maintenance of strong operating
performance, with CFO/Debt sustained at 25% or above, and a
resilient performance irrespective of the underlying cattle cycle,
macroeconomic environment, and consumption and trade patterns in
key markets, in particular in the US and Brazil.
Marfrig's ratings could be downgraded if the company's operating
performance weakens, its financial policy becomes more aggressive,
or its liquidity deteriorates. Quantitatively, the ratings could be
downgraded if total debt/EBITDA is sustained above 3.5x for a
prolonged period, EBITA/interest expense stays below 5x or
CFO/debt stays below 20% on a sustained basis. All credit metrics
incorporate Moody's standard adjustments and reflect Marfrig's
consolidated financials.
The principal methodology used in this rating was Protein and
Agriculture published in November 2021.
Marfrig Global Foods S.A., headquartered in Sao Paulo, is the
second-largest beef producer globally, with consolidated revenue of
BRL138 billion ($27 billion) in the twelve months that ended
September 2023. Marfrig owns 81.73% of National Beef Packing
Company LLC and 50.08% of BRF S.A. The company has a large scale
and is diversified in terms of operating production facilities,
with slaughtering plants in the US, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and
Uruguay, and processing facilities in the US, Brazil, Argentina and
Uruguay.
In North America, National Beef is the fourth-largest beef
processor, while Marfrig is the second-largest beef processor in
Brazil, and also the largest beef patty producer worldwide. Marfrig
also has relevant positions in South America, as the largest
protein producer of Uruguay and Chile's leading beef importer and
lamb producer. Marfrig fully consolidates BRF, which is the largest
poultry exporter globally. BRF reported revenues of BRL53.6 billion
(10.7 billion) in fiscal-year 2023.
OEC SA: Fitch Downgrades LT IDR to 'CC'
---------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded OEC S.A.'s (OEC) Long-Term Foreign and
Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'CC' from 'CCC-'
and National Long-Term Rating to 'CC(bra)', from 'CCC(bra)'. Fitch
has also downgraded OEC Finance Ltd.'s (OEC Finance) USD1.9 billion
senior unsecured payment-in-kind (PIK) toggle notes to 'C'/'RR5'
from 'CC/RR5'. The notes are unconditionally and irrevocably
guaranteed by OEC.
The downgrade reflects OEC's heightened refinancing risk and weak
financial flexibility to service debt maturities in 2024. The
company's still limited operating cash flow generation and
estimated cash position of about BRL350 million, as of September
2023, has been weak to support debt amortizations and coupon
payments of about USD100 million during 2024. OEC's capital
structure remains unsustainable. The company is still challenged to
pursue new contracts and recover profitability consistently to
support operations, although EBITDA generation gradually improved
during the second half 2023.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Short-Term Liquidity Pressure: OEC's financial flexibility to
service debt is weak, and debt restructuring is a real possibility.
The company has about USD100 million of debt amortization and
coupon payments in 2024, including the USD46 million senior
unsecured notes due October 2024, and about USD100 million of
coupon payments in 2025, as the ability to PIK them falls to 30%
from 65%, respectively. As of September 2023, OEC's cash position
was BRL350 million. Fitch expects the company to continue financing
the execution of contracts with short-term working capital lines.
Slower Than Expected Turnaround: OEC faces significant challenges
to turnaround operations and recover backlog in order to improve
overall credit quality. It closed 2023 with a backlog of
approximately BRL20 billion, as per Fitch's estimates, which is 20%
higher than 2022's BRL16.8 billion backlog. OEC successfully signed
about BRL8.8 billion in new contracts in 2023 and has the challenge
to continue winning new infrastructure bids in 2024 and 2025.
Infrastructure projects in Angola, Peru, the U.S., and Brazil are
OEC's main priority. For Angola and Peru, high commodity prices in
oil and copper , respectively, encourage greater infrastructure
spending. The recovery of OEC's operations will largely depend on
GDP growth in each of these countries and the company's capability
to add profitable projects.
Still Limited Operating Cash Flow: OEC is gradually recovering
operations, with EBITDA of BRL152 million in the first nine months
of 2023 as per Fitch's calculations. EBITDA is expected to reach
BRL333 million in 2024 and BRL436 million in 2025, as the company
accelerates the execution of the contracts, enabling to dilute
fixed costs and improve margins. FCF, however, should remain
negative at around BRL200 million per year over 2023-2025, mainly
pressured by increasing coupon payments with the reduction of the
flexibility to PIK payments.
Aggressive Capital Structure: OEC's financial leverage is not
sustainable. Fitch forecasts net leverage to remain above 25x,
while net equity is negative. Total debt is projected to reach
BRL11.2 billion in 2024 and BRL12.3 billion in 2025, up from an
expectation of BRL10.5 billion at the end of 2023, pushed by the
accrual of the coupons and negative FCFs. Total debt consists of
USD1.9 billion of senior unsecured PIK toggle notes issued by OEC
Finance and working capital lines related to projects. Fitch
believes OEC will PIK coupons until 2025, which spares cash flow in
the short term but increases outstanding debt in the medium term.
There is an additional challenge to increase hard-currency revenues
to partially mitigate the FX exposure.
Operating Environment Stabilizing: Short-term challenges for
Brazilian contractors continue to surpass medium-term potential
benefits, mainly due to weak capital structures and limited
capacity to generate sustained EBITDA. Fitch expects GDP to grow
1.5% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Contractors continue to depend on
the evolution of the pipeline of infrastructure projects. The
government's investment package Programa de Aceleracao do
Crescimento (PAC) totals BRL1.7 trillion (USD344 billion), of which
BRL1.4 trillion (USD283 billion) is expected to be rolled out until
2026.
DERIVATION SUMMARY
OEC's credit profile is weaker than local peer Andrade Gutierrez
Engenharia S.A. (AGE: CCC-). Both companies have weak financial
flexibility and face challenges in recovering backlog, improving
EBITDA generation and reducing leverage to more sustainable levels.
OEC has USD46 million bond maturities in October 2024, while the
bond guaranteed by AGE matures only in December 2029.
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within the Rating Case for the Issuer
Include
- Order book of BRL20.1 billion for 2023 and BRL17.6 billion for
2024, executed on average in 4.5 years;
- Criteria-based EBITDA of BRL190 million in 2023 and BRL333
million in 2024;
- Capitalization of the coupons of OEC Finance notes, as per
indentures;
- Postponement of one year for fine payments of the consent
solicitation;
- Capex of BRL30 million in 2023 and BRL107 million in 2024;
- No dividends.
RECOVERY ANALYSIS
Assumptions
- The recovery analysis assumes that OEC would be liquidated in a
bankruptcy rather than considered a going concern;
- Fitch assumed a 10% administrative claim.
Going Concern Approach
Fitch excluded the going concern approach due to expectations of
low EBITDA in the foreseeable future. In a scenario which OEC
starts reporting substantial positive EBITDA, the going concern
will be the preferred approach as Brazilian bankruptcy protection
legislation tends to favor the maintenance of the business to
preserve direct and indirect jobs.
Liquidation Approach
Fitch includes 75% of the accounts receivables, 50% of the
inventory and net PP&E reported in September 2023 when calculating
the liquidation value (LV). The allocation of value in the
liability waterfall corresponds to a 'RR5' Recovery Rating for the
senior unsecured notes and other bank debt of BRL10.2 billion. The
'RR5' Recovery Rating reflects below-average recovery prospects.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Capacity to consistently increase backlog above Fitch's
expectations;
- Substantial improvements in profitability;
- Improved financial flexibility.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Indications that a default or default-like process has begun,
such as the entrance into a grace or cure period following
non-payment of a material financial obligation.
LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE
High Short-Term Refinancing Risk: OEC's financial flexibility is
weak. Access to new long-term credit lines is limited and will
depend on the company's ability to increase its backlog and turn
around operations. In September 2023, OEC had a cash position of
BRL349 million, which is 0.8x its short-term debt of BRL458
million. OEC has USD50 million coupon payments of OEC Finance's
bonds, distributed throughout the year, and USD46 million
amortization of the 2024 notes in October. Coupons step up to
USD100 million in 2025 with the ability to PIK coupons falls to
30%, from 65% this year. At Sept. 30, 2023, OEC's total debt of
BRL10.2 billion (USD1.9 billion) was 97% composed of restructured
bonds while the remaining 3% were working capital lines.
ISSUER PROFILE
Brazilian-based OEC is one of the largest Latin American
contractors, operating in four countries mostly in the Americas and
Africa. OEC Finance Limited is the investment vehicle that issues
the bonds that are irrevocably guaranteed by OEC.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
OEC S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '4' for Management
Strategy, as it relies mostly on winning sizable contracts in
coming years, which has a high degree of uncertainty and depends on
economic growth, funding availability, client financials and
competition. This has a negative effect on the credit profile and
is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors. This
RS could be lowered to '3' if the company manages to win and
execute sizable contracts without sacrificing profitability.
OEC S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Group Structure due
to its complexity with participations within sister companies,
which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant
to the ratings in conjunction with other factors. Fitch sees the
provisions made by the company to simplify related-party
transactions with other entities of the Novonor Group as
constructive, and a lower relevance score would require a more
tangible simplification of the group structure.
OEC S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance Structure
due to and qualified financial statements in the past, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors. OEC has made progress
since car wash investigations began in 2014. Plea bargain
agreements have been signed, and most of the top management was
replaced. Stringent compliance rules and internal controls were
implemented to guide stakeholder relationships and to avoid
repeating misconduct practices. Lowering this ESG.RS to '3' would
require more concrete steps such as publishing unqualified
financial statements on a sustainable basis.
OEC S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Financial
Transparency due to consolidation of assets with minority economic
stake, and several partnerships that retain cash before it reaches
the parent, which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and
is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
OEC Finance
Limited
senior
unsecured LT C Downgrade RR5 CC
OEC S.A. LT IDR CC Downgrade CCC-
LC LT IDR CC Downgrade CCC-
Natl LT CC(bra)Downgrade CCC(bra)
===============
C O L O M B I A
===============
CREDISERVICIOS SA: Fitch Cuts IDRs to 'RD'
------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Credivalores - Crediservicios S.A.'s
(Credivalores) Long- and Short Term Foreign and Local Currency
Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'Restricted Default' (RD) from 'C'
and its long and short term National Scale Rating to 'RD(col)' from
'C(col)'. Fitch has also affirmed Credivalores' USD210 million
senior unsecured notes due 2025 at 'C'/'RR4' and the company's
partial credit guarantee (PCG) local issuance national rating at
'CCC+(col)'/'RR4'.
The rating actions follow the company's failure to cure the missed
interest payment on USD210 million of 8.875% senior notes due 2025
upon expiration of its original 30-day grace period as part of the
company's ongoing negotiations with creditors.
Credivalores announced an exchange offer of its 2025 bonds, subject
to completion in 8 to 12 weeks following the necessary regulatory
requirements.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Credivalores' IDRs are based on its Standalone Credit Profile
(SCP), which is below the implied SCP due to Fitch's assessment of
the company's funding, liquidity and coverage at the lowest
possible level on its scale.
Uncured Missed Interest Payment: Credivalores missed an interest
payment due on Feb. 7, 2024 on its USD210 million senior unsecured
notes. Fitch views the failure to cure the missed interest payment
within the 30-day original grace period as a restricted default as
per its ratings definitions.
Announcement of Exchange Offer: On March 8, 2024, Credivalores
announced an exchange offer of its 2025 bonds for new senior
secured notes due 2029, backed by a loan portfolio of USD168
million with staggered coupons, following agreements with an ad-hoc
committee of bondholders. Fitch believes this offer constitutes a
distressed debt exchange (DDE) under its criteria, as the
transaction will lead to a material reduction in terms and, in its
view, is being conducted to avoid a default. Fitch will reevaluate
the IDRs based on the new capital structure and credit profile upon
completion of the exchange offer.
Ongoing Debt Negotiation: Credivalores is negotiating a debt
restructuring in the midst of challenging market conditions. The
reprofiling of its debt is part of the company's strategy to
strengthen its capital structure and contribute to its long-term
financial sustainability. The payment relies on the successful
completion of the agreement and positive advances in its payroll
business strategy.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- The IDR will be downgraded to 'D' if a bankruptcy filings,
administration, receivership, liquidation or other formal
winding-up procedure or that has otherwise ceased business and debt
is still outstanding.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Fitch will reassess the IDRs upon the completion of a debt
restructuring process; the updated IDRs will reflect the new
capital structure and credit profile of the issuer.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
Partial Credit Guarantee (PGC) Issuance
Credivalores' partial guarantee bond local issuance for COP160.000
million is rated four notches above its national long-term rating.
The level of enhancement above the base recovery corresponds to the
additional recovery that the guarantee gives to the notes, which
improves the recovery rate for the bond holders is case of default.
The notes have an irrevocable partial guarantee for 70% for payment
of interest or principal from Fondo Nacional de Garantias rated
'AAA(col)'.
Credivalores' senior unsecured debt is in line with its respective
corporate rating level, as the debt is senior unsecured. The 'RR4'
Recovery Rating assigned to Credivalores' senior unsecured issuance
reflects average recovery prospects.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
- The company's senior unsecured debt is expected to move in line
with the Long-Term IDR, although a material increase in the
proportion of secured debt could result in the unsecured debt being
notched down from the IDR;
- The four-notch relativity of the PCG issuance above Credivalores'
Long-Term National Scale rating could be reduced by future
increases in the issuer rating or by an improvement in its
intrinsic recovery according to Fitch's methodology;
- A downward move in Credivalores' Long-Term National Scale rating
would negatively affect the PCG ratings.
ADJUSTMENTS
The Standalone Credit Profile has been assigned below the implied
Standalone Credit Profile due to the following adjustment reason:
Weakest Link - Funding, Liquidity & Coverage (negative).
The Business Profile score has been assigned below the implied
score due to the following adjustment reason: Business model
(negative), Historical and future developments (negative).
The Asset Quality score has been assigned below the implied score
due to the following adjustment reason: Risk profile and business
model (negative).
The Earnings & Profitability score has been assigned above the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: Historical
and future metrics (positive).
The Capitalisation & Leverage score has been assigned below the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: Risk profile
and business model (negative).
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Credivalores-
Crediservicios
S.A. LT IDR RD Downgrade C
ST IDR RD Downgrade C
LC LT IDR RD Downgrade C
LC ST IDR RD Downgrade C
Natl LT RD(col)Downgrade C(col)
Natl ST RD(col)Downgrade C(col)
senior
unsecured LT C Affirmed RR4 C
guaranteed Natl LT CCC+(col)Affirmed RR4 CCC+(col)
===============
D O M I N I C A
===============
DOMINICA: IMF Says Economy Fully Recovered to Pre-Pandemic Levels
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An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Mr.
Christopher Faircloth, visited Roseau and held discussions on the
2024 Article IV consultation with Dominica's authorities during
March 5-14. At the end of the consultation, the mission issued the
following statement, which summarizes its main conclusions and
recommendations.
1. The economy has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels and
economic imbalances have gradually narrowed. Real GDP grew by 5.6
percent in 2022 and 4.7 percent in 2023, returning to pre-pandemic
output levels. The recovery has been underpinned by an ambitious
public sector investment program (PSIP), strong agricultural
activity, and a rebound in tourism despite airlift challenges.
Inflation fell from its 2022 peak of 9.7 percent to 2.3 percent
(y/y) at end 2023, largely due to softening global commodity
prices. Favorable terms of trade and strong service exports further
reduced the current account deficit to 26.2 percent.
2. The fiscal position has gradually improved but fiscal space
remains tight with elevated public debt. The primary balance
improved modestly in FY2022/23 to a deficit of 4.3 percent of GDP
supported by record high citizenship-by-investment (CBI) revenues
and reduced current expenditures. These developments were partly
offset by increases in capital spending as the construction of
resilient infrastructure (roads and bridges, water infrastructure,
housing, and emergency shelters), the new airport, and geothermal
project advanced. Public debt declined to 102.9 percent of GDP in
FY2022/23 but remains elevated above pre-pandemic levels and
constrains fiscal space going forward.
3. The financial system remains liquid despite slow credit growth.
Banks remain well-capitalized and liquid, benefiting from a stable
and low-cost deposit base, with a substantial portion of assets in
overseas holdings. Banks' asset quality has improved, but
nonperforming loans (NPLs) remain elevated while provisioning is
modestly below the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank's (ECCB's) 60
percent threshold. Credit Unions (CUs) play a significant role in
the financial landscape, accounting for nearly half of private
sector credit. Indicators point to relatively low capital adequacy,
elevated NPLs, and declining profitability that bears careful
monitoring. Overall, private sector credit growth remains subdued.
4. The outlook remains positive, predicated on the full recovery
of stayover arrivals, implementation of key investment plans, and
prudent fiscal management. Growth is expected to average 4½
percent during 2024-25, as stayover tourism returns to pre-pandemic
levels, agriculture expansion initiatives take hold, and priority
infrastructure projects further advance. Inflation is projected to
converge to 2 percent consistent with trading partner dynamics. The
transition to geothermal production, the new airport and hotel
projects to expand tourism capacity, and projects to bolster
resilient infrastructure are expected to yield long-term growth
dividends and reduce external imbalances. The current account
deficit should gradually narrow over the medium term with the
increase of tourism exports and a steady decline in the imports of
investment goods and fuel. Public debt is set to decline in coming
years, albeit slowly, supported by a consolidation of public
finances.
5. However, risks stemming from an uncertain global environment,
climate change, and volatile CBI flows, weigh on the downside.
External risks from geopolitical tensions or tighter global
financial conditions cloud the outlook for trade, commodity prices,
and global demand, with significant spillovers to Dominica's
economy. An intensification of natural disasters due to climate
change could lead to large output and capital losses, hindering
fiscal sustainability and financial stability. Shortfalls in CBI
inflows could hamper implementation of planned infrastructure,
climate resilience, economic activity, and the fiscal position.
6. More ambitious fiscal consolidation is needed to achieve
objectives under the fiscal rule and adequately self-insure against
disaster risks, thus setting the stage for resilient growth. The
ongoing economic expansion provides an opportunity to rebuild
essential fiscal buffers, which include not only achieving a
minimum 2 percent of GDP primary surplus and reducing public debt
to 60 percent of GDP by 2035, but also to adequately capitalize the
Vulnerability, Risk and Resilience Fund as envisioned under the
2021 Disaster Resilience Strategy to insure against disaster
shocks. On current estimates, this involves identifying roughly
EC$65 million in fiscal consolidation measures, phased in over two
years, to achieve a primary surplus of 3.5 percent of GDP by
FY2025/26. This consolidation plan should be underpinned by a
sizeable improvement in non-CBI fiscal balances, while protecting
investment and other priority programs to safeguard growth and the
most vulnerable. Stronger fiscal consolidation would also benefit
the economy by facilitating external rebalancing and reducing the
exposure of the financial system to the public sector.
7. The recommended consolidation strategy involves broadening the
revenue base, strategically rationalizing expenditures, and
prioritizing investment with economic returns. Fiscal measures
should build on the package advanced in the FY2023/24 budget.
Mobilizing tax revenue by streamlining tax incentives (including by
curtailing discretionary concession powers), rationalizing personal
income tax allowances, and strengthening tax administration and
compliance risk management are priorities. Additional measures
include reversing the reduction of VAT on electricity, raising the
excise tax on diesel in line with gasoline, and exploring options
to transition to a broader property tax regime. On the spending
side, the decline in the public wage bill is welcome and should be
preserved, including through further civil service reform. Given
limited fiscal space, efforts should further rationalize
inefficient spending and prioritize PSIP outlays on projects with
clear economic returns. Tariff adjustments on key public
services—notably water and sewerage and medical services—should
be pursued to strengthen the financial position of state-owned
enterprises, thus reducing contingent liability risks and current
transfers. The National Employment Program (NEP) has evolved beyond
its original mandate and should be reassessed from a cost-benefit
standpoint. Reforms that restore the program's temporary
skills-retooling orientation could achieve significant savings.
8. At the same time, it is critical to safeguard the social
protection system and support the vulnerable. The framework of
social protection in Dominica is fragmented, partly reflecting
capacity constraints and widespread informality in the labor market
that hamper the use of conventional income-based targeting.
Streamlining and consolidating these programs to reduce overlap and
tailor social assistance to the most vulnerable households is a
priority. This involves operationalizing a centralized information
system or unified database to track support and identify gaps. The
completion of the ongoing population census would further support
establishing a comprehensive social registry. A package of
parametric reforms should also be pursued to safeguard the
viability of the National Insurance Scheme against the backdrop of
increasing demographic pressures.
9. Addressing structural impediments to financial intermediation
that constrain private sector credit remains a priority. The
operationalization of the regional credit bureau should help
streamline the lending process and enhance credit quality.
Introducing a movable collateral framework could also help ease
credit-access constraints. Recent enhancements to the Eastern
Caribbean Partial Credit Guarantee Corporation could better support
MSMEs in meeting documentation and collateral requirements for
enhanced access to finance. Modernizing national foreclosure and
bankruptcy legislation is critical for resolving NPLs.
10. A modern supervisory framework is necessary to underpin
financial stability. Granting the national financial supervisory
agency (FSU) statutory independence from the Ministry of Finance
would further improve its effectiveness and support risk-based
supervision. The FSU should pursue sound underwriting practices,
proper asset classification and provisioning, and require CUs with
capital shortfalls to submit credible restoration plans.
Participating in ECCB-led initiatives to establish a Regional
Standards Setting Body for non-bank financial institutions and
regularize data sharing as well as integrating climate risks into
supervisory frameworks are also recommended to enhance overall
financial resilience.
11. Structural reforms to modernize the economy will support
sustainable, inclusive, and resilient growth. The transition to
geothermal energy is pivotal for meeting climate mitigation goals
while both enhancing competitiveness and the external balance
through lower electricity costs and fuel imports, respectively. The
new international airport will significantly boost connectivity
with large markets but should be accompanied by efforts to enhance
regional connectivity and marketing strategies to tap new source
markets. Initiatives to support the agricultural sector and broaden
the export base are welcome and should explore synergies with the
growing tourism sector. Reforms to improve the business environment
and reduce labor market frictions that hamper inclusive growth are
also priorities. This includes policies to reduce burdensome
administrative costs and persistent skills mismatches.
12. Institutional reforms to help mitigate risks and support
economic policymaking should continue. Ongoing efforts to
strengthen AML/CFT legislation and procedures in line with the
latest Caribbean Financial Action Task Force (CFATF) mutual
evaluation report should help protect correspondent bank
relationships and the integrity of the CBI program. Efforts to
further strengthen the CBI regime in line with the principles of
the 2023 US-Caribbean Roundtable Agreement are welcome. Deepening
regional cooperation on CBI programs in terms of common due
diligence, transparency, and disclosure standards, could further
safeguard this important source of revenue. Weaknesses in
statistical compilation, tax administration, and public financial
management (PFM) frameworks—including under-developed internal
CBI reporting systems—complicate policy management such as the
implementation of the national fiscal rule. Strengthening
institutional capacity in statistical compilation and PFM processes
for medium-term budgeting, fiscal reporting, treasury operations,
and public investment management remain priorities. The IMF stands
ready to build on its ongoing capacity development program with
Dominica in these and other areas.
===================================
D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
===================================
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Airfare Costs, Main Obstacle to Tourism
-----------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that the tourism sector in the Dominican
Republic, while celebrating a significant milestone in February
2024 with a record-breaking 1,057,216 visitors, confronts pressing
challenges requiring immediate attention.
Foremost among these challenges, as identified by officials, is the
issue of air connectivity and the associated high cost of airfares,
according to Dominican Today. Despite a notable surge in visitor
arrivals by air, totaling 755,832 in February alone, the
prohibitive expense of flights remains a deterrent for many
potential travelers, the report notes. Tourism Minister David
Collado underscored the urgency of addressing this matter to ensure
sustainable growth within the tourism industry, the report relays.
A second critical challenge revolves around the shortage of hotel
accommodations, the report discloses. With demand on the rise, the
country requires approximately 30,000 additional rooms to
adequately cater to tourists, the report says. While around 16,000
rooms are currently under construction, representing a $9,000
million investment, there remains much ground to cover in bridging
this gap and providing a quality lodging experience for all
visitors, the report relays.
An analysis of travel motivations in February 2024 reveals a
diverse array of activities enticing visitors to the country, the
report notes. Sports tourism, at 4.4%, visiting friends (4.5%),
business trips (4.4%), weddings (4.3%), and medical consultations
(4.4%) emerge as some of the primary reasons for travel to the
Dominican Republic during this period, the report relays.
Despite the outlined challenges, Dominican tourism continues to
exhibit resilience and allure, the report notes. Collado expressed
optimism regarding the sector's future, citing ongoing growth in
tourist arrivals and projecting a year-end total of over 11 million
visitors, the report relays.
In addition to these challenges, significant shifts are occurring
within Dominican tourism, as reported by El Caribe, the report
discloses.
In terms of air connectivity, February 2024 witnessed a total of
5,873 flights recorded in Dominican airspace, reflecting a 15%
increase compared to the previous year, the report says. This
uptick in air activity underscores the critical need to address
ticket costs and enhance air accessibility as top priorities in
fortifying the country's tourism sector, the report adds.
About Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.
TCR-LA reported in April 2019 that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."
An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.
On December 4, 2023, the TCR-LA reported that Fitch Ratings has
affirmed Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' and revised the Outlook to Positive
from Stable. Fitch says the Positive Outlook reflects a trend
improvement in governance, and robust growth prospects that should
lead to continued gains in per capita income. According to Fitch,
growth has decelerated in 2023, but it expects Dominican Republic
to recover to high levels during 2024-2025. External liquidity
metrics have improved in recent years, and foreign currency share
of government debt is on a downward path.
In August 2023, Moody's Investors Service changed the outlook on
the Government of Dominican Republic's ratings to positive from
stable and affirmed the local and foreign-currency long-term issuer
and senior unsecured ratings at Ba3. Moody's said the key drivers
for the outlook change to positive are: (i) sustained high growth
rates have enhanced the scale and wealth levels of the economy; and
(ii) a material decline in the government debt burden coupled with
improved fiscal policy effectiveness will support medium-term debt
sustainability.
The affirmation of the Ba3 ratings balances the Dominican
Republic's strong economic growth dynamics and relatively contained
susceptibility to event risks, with a comparatively weaker fiscal
position, reflecting long-standing credit challenges which include:
(i) a shallow revenue base compared to peers, (ii) weak debt
affordability metrics, and (iii) high exposure to foreign currency
borrowing.
S&P Global Ratings, in December 2022, raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Dominican
Republic to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook on the long-term ratings
is stable. S&P affirmed its 'B' short-term sovereign credit
ratings. S&P also revised its transfer and convertibility (T&C)
assessment to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. The stable outlook reflects S&P's
expectation of continued favorable GDP growth and policy continuity
over the next 12-18 months that will likely stabilize the
government's debt burden.
In February 2023, S&P said its BB ratings reflect the country's
fast-growing and resilient economy. It also incorporates the
country's historical political and social challenges in passing
structural reforms to contain fiscal deficits, despite recent
improvements in the electricity sector. The ratings are constrained
by relatively high debt, a hefty interest burden, and limited
monetary policy flexibility.
[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Works with IDB to Become a Logistics Hub
----------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that the president of the Inter-American
Development Bank (IDB), Ilan Goldfajn, described the Dominican
Republic as a model of development to follow. He highlighted its
"remarkable economic growth, above the average for the region,"
which he attributed mainly to sound economic policies, promotion of
investment, and the growth of the private sector, according to
Dominican Today.
He added that the country is now hosting a series of historic
meetings that will enable the region to overcome common challenges
such as climate change, food security, poverty reduction, education
improvement, clean energy generation, and biodiversity protection,
the report notes.
President Luis Abinader described the IDB as a fundamental ally for
the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean to strategically
face these common challenges in a faster and safer way, the report
relays.
"The IDB Group is a key player, creating innovative products that
allow us to access these funds under better conditions," the report
notes.
In this sense, the president said that they have been able to raise
the quality of life of their people thanks to the financial and
technical support they have received in infrastructure, energy,
transportation, education, health, and institutional strengthening,
the report relays.
He also said that these alliances generate opportunities such as
the potential for trade integration and efficiency in logistics,
the report says. In the Dominican Republic's case, its geographic
location gives it a competitive advantage to become a regional
logistics hub, the report discloses.
"One of the most recent joint initiatives with the IDB is the
rehabilitation of the port of Manzanillo, a work that will allow us
to boost exports, foreign investment, job creation and the entire
logistics sector," the report relays.
IDB's Transforming Axes
To overcome these challenges, Goldfajn indicated that the IDB Group
is proposing three transformational changes: a new Institutional
Strategy to increase the impact and scale of the works and impact
and scale of the work, and a new vision and business model for IDB
Invest and IDB Lab that would increase their investment power, the
report relays.
Presidency Pro Tempore
Previously, the Minister of Finance, Jochi Vicente, assumed the pro
tempore presidency of the Meetings of the Boards of Governors of
the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the Inter-American
Investment Corporation (IDB Invest), within the framework of the
organization's meetings, which have been held in Punta Cana since
mid-week, the report discloses.
In his speech, Vicente expressed his gratitude for the financial
and technical support provided by the IDB Group to Latin American
and Caribbean nations in favor of better social and economic
stability, fiscal sustainability, and strengthening of
institutions, the report relays.
"In the case of the Dominican Republic, it is our largest source of
resources among official international creditors (the IDB),
providing 44% of multilateral financing," concluded the minister,
the report adds.
About Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.
TCR-LA reported in April 2019 that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."
An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.
On December 4, 2023, the TCR-LA reported that Fitch Ratings has
affirmed Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' and revised the Outlook to Positive
from Stable. Fitch says the Positive Outlook reflects a trend
improvement in governance, and robust growth prospects that should
lead to continued gains in per capita income. According to Fitch,
growth has decelerated in 2023, but it expects Dominican Republic
to recover to high levels during 2024-2025. External liquidity
metrics have improved in recent years, and foreign currency share
of government debt is on a downward path.
In August 2023, Moody's Investors Service changed the outlook on
the Government of Dominican Republic's ratings to positive from
stable and affirmed the local and foreign-currency long-term issuer
and senior unsecured ratings at Ba3. Moody's said the key drivers
for the outlook change to positive are: (i) sustained high growth
rates have enhanced the scale and wealth levels of the economy; and
(ii) a material decline in the government debt burden coupled with
improved fiscal policy effectiveness will support medium-term debt
sustainability.
The affirmation of the Ba3 ratings balances the Dominican
Republic's strong economic growth dynamics and relatively contained
susceptibility to event risks, with a comparatively weaker fiscal
position, reflecting long-standing credit challenges which include:
(i) a shallow revenue base compared to peers, (ii) weak debt
affordability metrics, and (iii) high exposure to foreign currency
borrowing.
S&P Global Ratings, in December 2022, raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Dominican
Republic to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook on the long-term ratings
is stable. S&P affirmed its 'B' short-term sovereign credit
ratings. S&P also revised its transfer and convertibility (T&C)
assessment to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. The stable outlook reflects S&P's
expectation of continued favorable GDP growth and policy continuity
over the next 12-18 months that will likely stabilize the
government's debt burden.
In February 2023, S&P said its BB ratings reflect the country's
fast-growing and resilient economy. It also incorporates the
country's historical political and social challenges in passing
structural reforms to contain fiscal deficits, despite recent
improvements in the electricity sector. The ratings are constrained
by relatively high debt, a hefty interest burden, and limited
monetary policy flexibility.
=====================
P U E R T O R I C O
=====================
LANDMARK COMMERCIAL: Plan Exclusivity Period Extended to March 29
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Judge Edward A. Godoy of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District
of Puerto Rico extended Landmark Commercial Centers Development
Inc.'s exclusive periods to file its plan of reorganization, and
solicit acceptances thereof to March 29 and May 28, 2024,
respectively.
As shared by Troubled Company Reporter, the Debtor asserts that it
has acted in good faith and has been approaching creditors in order
to reach agreements that are mutually beneficial. The present
extension grants the Debtor a necessary timeframe not only to
continue negotiations with creditors but also evaluate the claim
presented just a few days ago and construct a disclosure statement
and plan of reorganization that would allow creditors to determine
whether to accept the same.
Additionally, Debtor has filed all required Monthly Operating
Reports to date and has no recurring bills past due as reflected
therein.
Landmark Commercial Centers Development Inc., is represented by:
Wigberto Lugo Mender, Esq.
LUGO MENDER GROUP, LLC
100 Carr. 165, Suite 501
Guaynabo, PR 00968-8052
Telephone: (787) 707-0404
Facsimile: (787) 707-0412
Email: a_betancourt@lugomender.com
About Landmark Commercial Centers Development
Landmark Commercial Centers Development Inc. is primarily engaged
in renting and leasing real estate properties.
Landmark Commercial Centers Development filed its voluntary
petition for relief under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code (Bankr.
D.P.R. Case No. 23-03338) on Oct. 16, 2023. The petition was
signed by Jose A. Feliciano-Ruiz as president. At the time of
filing, the Debtor disclosed $6,555,072 in assets and $8,609,063 in
liabilities.
Judge Edward A Godoy presides over the case.
Wigberto Lugo Mender, Esq. at Lugo Mender Group, LLC, is the
Debtor's counsel.
=====================================
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
=====================================
GUARDIAN MEDIA: Loss-Making Position Worsens, $11.2M in the Red
---------------------------------------------------------------
Trinidad Express reports that Guardian Media Ltd's loss-making
position worsened last year, with the company recording a total
comprehensive loss of $11.2 million for the period ended December
31, 2023.
This marked an increase in their unprofitability by $8.4 million
compared to 2022, according to Trinidad Express.
And as a result, GML's ordinary shareholders will not be receiving
a dividend, its chairman Peter Clarke has said, the report notes.
The report relays that Mr. Clarke reported that the media arm of
conglomerate ANSA McAL saw its revenue drop by $14.4 million
compared to last year.
Overall, both GML's print and multimedia segments experienced
significant dips in revenue last year compared to 2022, the report
discloses.
For the year ended December 31, 2023, GML's print division incurred
a before-tax loss of $8.3 million, while its multimedia segment
incurred a pre-tax loss of $2.3 million, the report says.
"Against the backdrop of shrinking advertising budgets and digital
market disruptions, management has worked diligently during the
year to navigate the changing local market environment through
improved sales and service capabilities, redoubled editorial
relevance and appeal, increased audience engagement, development of
content and productions and delivery of efficiency improvements
within the organisation," the report quoted Mr. Clarke as saying.
The report relates that Mr. Clarke said that GML's multi-media
revenues and profitability were negatively impacted by the
lower-than-expected commercial interest in the English Premier
League [EPL] campaign and the associated costs of those rights.
"There was an increase in fixed operating costs over the prior year
while all other controllable expenses were tightly managed.
Notwithstanding these results, our statement of financial position
metrics remain robust," he added.
"We recognize the importance of maintaining a responsible and
ethical approach to our operations and to ensuring that our
activities positively impact society and the environment," Mr.
Clarke said, the report relays.
Mr. Clarke said based on the overall performance of the company,
GML's directors have not recommended an ordinary dividend payment
in respect of the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, the report
relates.
Meanwhile, 6% Preference Shareholders will receive a final dividend
of 3%, the report notes.
"The Board remains committed to creating value for shareholders and
remains confident that by executing our strategies, delivering
efficiencies, and investing carefully, dividend payments will
resume once the Company returns to profitability," he said, the
report relates.
The report relays that Mr. Clarke also bid farewell to GML's former
managing director, Dr. Karrian Hepburn Malcolm, who stepped down
from the position on November 30 to return to Jamaica and assume
the role of head of the National Commercial Bank Jamaica (NCB)
Wealth Management division.
She is the third person to resign from the position of MD from GML
in four years, the report relays.
The first of those three was A Nicholas Sabga who resigned in June
2020, the report notes.
Mr. Sabga was replaced by Brandon Khan who resigned in February
last year,
Hepburn Malcolm was appointed GML's MD on March 1 replacing Khan.
Among the changes implemented by Hepburn Malcolm at GML was the
appointment of Kaymar Jordan as the managing editor in November
2022, the report recalls.
Since Hepburn Malcolm's resignation Gerhard Pettier, GML's
substantive chief financial officer has been appointed as the
organisation's acting manging director, the report says.
"I also take this opportunity to extend my gratitude to our
shareholders, employees, partners, and customers for your loyal and
unwavering support and look forward to the continuing support of
all our stakeholders, the report adds.
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Young Rebukes Harford's Criticism
----------------------------------------------------
Anna Ramdass at Trinidad Express reports that Energy Minister
Stuart Young has taken umbrage at comments made by Ronald Harford,
former chairman of Republic Financial Holdings Ltd, as he boasted
about the success of the energy sector.
Young said whenever somebody becomes a "former", their "mouth gets
big", as he quoted from an article in Express report where Harford
made critical comments, according to Trinidad Express.
"We belong in this damn country and the politicians are here to
serve us. And when we see things going wrong, it is your money
that is going wrong--that's your tax money that is being wasted.
We must no longer be spectators. We must be citizens and assume the
rightful position and responsibilities to guide this country,"
Harford said, the report notes.
The report relays that Young noted that he was "astounded" that
Harford stated further, "It's quite remarkable that this is an oil
and gas country and we have no plan for oil and gas production."
"As chairman, you were removed; you were not elected a chairman.
And when it came time to an election, you couldn't get the support
to continue," said Young, the report discloses.
He challenged the Opposition members to do a simple search and they
would see all leading international publications reporting about
his recent trip to Venezuela, the report relays.
Young said he was in Venezuela for two days with BP, conducting
continued conversations for a project called Cocuina-Manakin, the
report notes.
Trinidad Express says that he said this has been in the top news in
the global energy international media publications. "To have this
gentleman and others--those who really know nothing about the
energy sector and those who decimated the energy sector--try and
comment on these things is a little bit more than Trinidad and
Tobago can stomach," he added.
Young said further that Libya's vice-minister read about the
project in the international press and sent him a message saying
"Great news brother, wish you all the best of luck and success,"
the report relays.
Young lambasted the Kamla Persad-Bissessar government, saying that
during her tenure, billions were spent and there was nothing
tangible to show for it, the report notes.
He accused the former government of decimating the energy sector,
saying that had the PNM Government not re-negotiated energy
contracts, some $19 billion would not have been earned in revenue,
the report adds.
=============
U R U G U A Y
=============
HDI SEGUROS: Moody's Ups Local Currency IFS Rating to Ba1
---------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the global local currency insurance
financial strength (IFS) ratings assigned to Banco de Seguros del
Estado (BSE) to Baa1 from Baa2, to Mapfre Uruguay Seguros S.A.
(Mapfre Uruguay) to Baa1 from Baa2, to Zurich Santander Seguros
Uruguay S.A. (Zurich Santander Uruguay) to Baa2 from Baa3, and to
HDI Seguros S.A. (HDI Uruguay) to Ba1 from Ba2. At the same time,
the baseline credit assessment (BCA) assigned to BSE was upgraded
to baa2 from baa3. The ratings outlook of the four insurers was
changed to stable from positive.
These actions follow Moody's upgrade of Government of Uruguay's
issuer rating to Baa1 from Baa2 and change of outlook to stable
from positive, published on March 15, 2024.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrade of these Uruguayan insurers' IFS ratings, and also BCA
in the case of BSE, incorporates the benefit to their operations
stemming from the country's sound economic prospects, with an
expectation of sustained growth rates supported by strong
investments and capital flows in Uruguay, and institutional
strength, which supports the country's commitment with its fiscal
policy framework. The latter ultimately supports the country's
credit profile and led to the recent upgrade of its rating. In
addition, the upgrade also incorporates these insurers' continued
sound business and financial performance.
In addition, these insurers' key credit fundamentals - including
asset quality, capitalization and financial flexibility – remain
partially correlated to Uruguay's operating environment and to the
credit quality of the Uruguayan sovereign securities, which
comprise a significant part of these companies' investment
portfolios.
Banco de Seguros del Estado
The upgrade of BSE's BCA and IFS rating acknowledges the
significant linkages of the company's credit profile with that of
the sovereign, including its government ownership, and its
investment portfolio that is mostly comprised of sovereign
securities. Considering those factors, in Moody's view, BSE would
benefit from a very high probability of support from the
government, in case of need. This assessment of the probability of
support, which leads to a one-notch uplift relative to the
company's baa2 baseline credit assessment, also takes into account
the systemic importance of BSE as the sole provider of pension and
workers' compensation insurance coverages in Uruguay. Therefore,
the upgrade of the sovereign leads to a larger potential benefit
from support, as the ability of the sovereign to provide financial
assistance -measured through its own credit rating- has
strengthened, and also leads to an improvement of BSE's standalone
profile, due to the positive implications for the company's asset
quality and financial flexibility.
In addition, the upgrade of BSE's IFS rating reflects the company's
dominant market position as the market leader in life and P&C
segments, with a market share of close to 70% of total premiums in
2023, its solid brand recognition and good product diversification.
The company has reported strong profitability metrics in recent
years, even in 2023 despite substantial losses incurred related to
the agribusiness segment that was exposed to a severe drought that
hit Uruguay last year. Historically strong bottom-line results has
allowed BSE to maintain sufficient capital buffers to absorb both
the high growth in its pension insurance segment and the
strengthening of reserves in recent years. BSE's main credit
challenges arise from its exposure to annuities in the pension
segment, related to longevity and reinvestment risks, and
asset-liability mismatches. However, these risks have reduced in
recent years, due to the introduction of updated mortality tables
that more accurately capture Uruguay's demographic trends and due
to the company's increased holdings of securities denominated in
wage-adjusted units, which provide a hedge for pensions that are
adjusted by the same unit.
Mapfre Uruguay, Zurich Santander Uruguay and HDI Uruguay
The upgrade of Mapfre Uruguay, Zurich Santander Uruguay and HDI
Uruguay's IFS ratings incorporates these companies' solid financial
fundamentals in the past five years, including sound asset quality
and financial flexibility that have been supported by an improved
operating environment in Uruguay. The upgrade of Uruguay's
sovereign bond rating to Baa1 from Baa2 also supports improvement
in the companies' financial fundamentals as between 65% and 95% of
their investment portfolios were held in Uruguayan sovereign
securities, as of 2023 year-end.
The upgrade of Mapfre Uruguay's IFS rating to Baa1 from Baa2,
reflects the company's strong capital adequacy, its above-peers
underwriting performance and good business diversification, in both
property and casualty and life segments. Mapfre Uruguay's
creditworthiness is also supported by its well-established market
position as the second largest insurer in Uruguay in terms of
premiums. These positive credit considerations are partially offset
by the company's reinvestment risks associated to its individual
life and annuity products. The rating also continues to consider
Moody's assessment of implicit and explicit support provided by its
ultimate parent company - Mapfre S.A. (not rated) - through brand
name sharing and risk transfer arrangements achieved through
intra-group reinsurance, as well as the parent's constant oversight
and its significant strategic interest in Latin America, as
demonstrated by a solid presence in several countries in the
region.
The upgrade of Zurich Santander Uruguay IFS rating to Baa2 from
Baa3, acknowledges the company's robust capitalization
(shareholders' equity represented close to 67% of total assets as
of December 2023), continued strong profitability levels (average
return on capital of 38% for the last five years) and low
product-risk profile, mainly comprised of short-term credit-related
life coverage and other granular short-term coverage products. The
company's rating also reflects implicit support provided by its
majority shareholder, Zurich Santander Insurance America S.L.,
which is 51% owned by Zurich Insurance Company Ltd (Aa3 positive)
and 49% by Banco Santander S.A. (Spain) (Banco Santander, A2
stable, baa1 BCA). This support is illustrated by the parent's
technical control and oversight over this subsidiary, brand-name
sharing, and the ultimate parents' strategic interest in Latin
America. These positive credit considerations are counterbalanced
by the company's small size in global terms, despite the
significant growth in recent years, and its exposure to regulatory
risk on the credit-related life insurance coverages.
The upgrade of HDI Uruguay's IFS rating to Ba1 from Ba2, is based
on the company's good product diversification, with a balanced book
of business that includes several property and casualty and life
insurance lines; its good capitalization reflected by the low gross
underwriting leverage, its adequate asset quality, mostly
comprising investment-grade securities and the implicit and
explicit support from Talanx Group (not rated), the company's
ultimate shareholder. These strengths are tempered by the company's
small market share, which has increased in the last years and
underwriting losses in the automobile segment, risk that are
mitigated by HDI Uruguay's good underwriting performance in other
lines of business.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Banco de Seguros del Estado
The following factors could lead to upward pressure on the ratings:
(i) an upgrade of Uruguay's sovereign bond rating, (ii) further
reductions in asset-liability mismatches in the company's pension
segment, (iii) a significant and sustained improvement in the
company's reserve adequacy, (iv) a sustained improvement in the
company's underwriting results, with the combined ratios for its
property and casualty (P&C) lines of business persistently below
100%.
Conversely, the following factors could lead to downward pressure
on the ratings: (i) a downgrade of Uruguay's sovereign bond rating,
(ii) a significant deterioration in the credit quality of BSE's
investments, (iii) persistent underwriting losses, with the
combined ratio for the company's P&C lines of business persistently
above 100%, and (iv) a decline in the company's capital adequacy
(with shareholders' equity-to-total assets below 4%).
Mapfre Uruguay
The following factors could lead to upward pressure on the ratings:
(i) an upgrade of the Government of Uruguay's rating, (ii) a
sustained improvement in the company's underwriting performance,
with combined ratios for P&C segments well below 100% on a
sustained basis, (iii) a sustained improvement in its capital
metrics (for example, gross underwriting leverage sustainably below
3x), and (iv) a significant and sustained improvement in reserve
adequacy.
Conversely, the following factors could lead to downward pressure
on the ratings: (i) a downgrade of Uruguay's sovereign bond rating,
(ii) a deterioration in profitability, with combined ratios
consistently above 100%, (iii) a decline in its capital adequacy
(for example, Gross Underwriting Leverage (GUL) rising above 5x),
and (iv) a deterioration of the ability or willingness of the
parent Mapfre S.A. to provide support to the Uruguayan subsidiary.
Zurich Santander Uruguay
The following factors could lead to upward pressure on the ratings:
(i) an upgrade of the Government of Uruguay's rating, (ii) a
significant and sustained improvement in Zurich Santander Uruguay's
market share and product diversification, coupled with continued
good profitability.
Conversely, the following factors could lead to downward pressure
on the ratings: (i) a downgrade of Uruguay's sovereign bond rating,
(ii) a decline in the support provided by Zurich Santander
Uruguay's shareholders or in the parent's strategic interest in the
subsidiary, (iii) a significant decline in its profitability (with
ROC below 10% on a sustained basis) and capital (that is, with the
capital-to-assets ratio remaining consistently under 30% or a
decrease in the company's regulatory solvency surplus above the
minimum required capital) and (iv) a significant decrease in the
company's size and market share.
HDI Uruguay
The following factors could lead to upward pressure on the ratings:
(i) an upgrade of the Government of Uruguay's rating, (ii) an
improvement in the company's underwriting performance, with
combined ratios for P&C segments remaining below 100% on a
sustained basis, and (iii) a significant and sustained improvement
in the company's market share.
Conversely, the following factors could lead to downward pressure
on the ratings: (i) a downgrade of Uruguay's sovereign bond rating,
(ii) sustained underwriting losses in its P&C products, (iii) a
decline in its capital adequacy (for example, GUL above 5x), (iv) a
reduction in support from Talanx Group or in its strategic interest
in HDI Uruguay.
The principal methodologies used in rating Banco de Seguros del
Estado were Property and Casualty Insurers Methodology published in
January 2023.
=================
V E N E Z U E L A
=================
CITGO PETROLEUM: Weak Bids Spur Venezuela to Pitch Alternative
--------------------------------------------------------------
globalinsolvency.com, citing Reuters, reports that the highest bid
received in a U.S. auction of shares that will decide the fate of
Venezuela-owned oil refiner Citgo Petroleum was $7.3 billion,
enough to cover only a third of court-approved claims.
A federal court in Delaware is auctioning the shares of a parent of
Venezuela's foreign crown jewel, Houston-based Citgo, that it found
liable for the South American country's debt defaults and
expropriations, according to the report.
Creditors have flocked to Delaware to press claims totaling $21.3
billion in a case first brought nearly seven years ago by miner
Crystallex. Results from the first bidding round in January,
however, show a sales process that is unlikely to provide a
satisfactory outcome for creditors or Citgo's current owners, the
report notes.
Offers received thus far in a case that broke new legal ground in
sovereign immunity would leave many claims unpaid, analysts and
sources warned, the report relays.
The court may have to revamp the sales process, or consider an
alternative being drafted by Venezuela, which would offer creditors
a larger payout with proceeds spread over several years, while
retaining some of Venezuela's stake in the company, the report
notes.
Judge Leonard Stark, who is overseeing the case, has declined to
consider Venezuela's payment proposals, the report relays. It is
unclear if he would reconsider with the highest offer in the
initial bidding round covering only 14 of the 26 claims that he has
accepted from 18 creditors, the report adds.
About CITGO Petroleum
Citgo Petroleum Corporation is a United States-based refiner,
transporter and marketer of transportation fuels, lubricants,
petrochemicals and other industrial products. Based in Houston,
Texas, Citgo is majority-owned by PDVSA, a state-owned company of
the Venezuelan government (although due to U.S. sanctions, in
2019, they no longer economically benefit from Citgo.)
As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in June
2022, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B-' long-term issuer credit
ratings on CITGO Holding Inc. and core subsidiary CITGO Petroleum
Corp.
===============
X X X X X X X X
===============
LATAM: Governors OK Changes for IDB Group to Support the Region
---------------------------------------------------------------
The Boards of Governors of the Inter-American Development Bank
(IDB) and IDB Invest approved three transformative changes to
increase the impact and scale of the IDB Group's development work
in Latin America and the Caribbean, including a new Institutional
Strategy and a $3.5 billion capital increase to support a new
business model for IDB Invest, the Group's private-sector arm.
The Board of Governors of the IDB also approved $400 million more
resources and a more scalable, catalytic and sustainable business
model for IDB Lab, the Group's innovation and venture capital arm.
The new Institutional Strategy puts impact and scale at the
forefront of the IDB Group's work for the 2024-2030 period. It aims
to boost the Group's results and impact through a series of
measures, including developing a results-based, programmatic
approach in work with member countries, upgrading lending tools and
measurement metrics, investing more in knowledge capacity, and
enhancing a culture of impact and meritocracy across the IDB, IDB
Invest and IDB Lab.
The Governors, who are the top economic and financial authorities
of the IDB Group's 48 member countries, approved the reforms at the
conclusion of the 64th Annual Meeting of the IDB Board of Governors
and the 38th Annual Meeting of the IDB Invest Board of Governors.
"These meetings have been truly historic. For the first time in the
65 years of our institution, our Boards of Governors have
simultaneously approved three transformative changes that will make
the IDB Group a bigger, better and more agile institution. These
changes will significantly boost our ability to support Latin
America and the Caribbean in addressing its challenges and
unlocking its potential to ignite a development turning point - all
to improve lives with greater impact and at greater scale," said
IDB President Ilan Goldfajn.
"Our region faces a triple structural challenge of rising social
demands, scarce fiscal resources and low growth, with the
additional major effects of climate change. But at the same time,
there is a great opportunity for the region to become part of the
solution to shared global challenges," President Goldfajn added.
"This could be an inflection point not just for the IDB Group but
also for the region."
Strategic Objectives and Greater Scale
The new Institutional Strategy has three core objectives: reduce
poverty and inequality, address climate change and bolster
sustainable regional growth.
To achieve these goals, the IDB Group will work through seven
operational focus areas. Three of these are cross-cutting through
all sectors: biodiversity, natural capital and climate action;
gender equality and inclusion of diverse population groups; and
institutional capacity, rule of law and citizen security.
The other four focus areas are social protection and human capital
development; productive development and innovation through the
private sector; sustainable, resilient and inclusive
infrastructure; and regional integration.
To meet its objectives, the IDB Group will bolster its financial
capacity.
The capitalization of $3.5 billion and the new business model would
allow IDB Invest to scale its ability to channel resources to the
region from the current approximate $8 billion per year to around
$19 billion.
The new IDB Invest business model will allow it to shift toward an
impact-driven originate-to-share approach. It will be able to take
on more risk, expand its field presence, and deploy innovative
products to deliver better results at the project and portfolio
levels.
To ensure that the IDB Group further leverages innovation to drive
social inclusion, climate action, and productivity in the region,
the IDB and IDB Invest Boards of Governors approved a proposal for
IDB Lab to enhance its operating model and become an innovation hub
for development. This approval allows IDB Lab to seek $400 million
in new funding, which would be deployed in the 2026-2032 period.
The hub model – which builds upon unique features of IDB Lab,
including its higher risk appetite, grassroots network and agility
in deploying financing – aims to triple the entity's resource
mobilization per dollar deployed and to scale up 40% of its
projects. Additionally, the new model will help ensure that all IDB
Lab projects benefit poor and vulnerable populations.
The institutional strategy intends to strengthen synergies across
the IDB Group, between IDB, IDB Invest and IDB Lab.
The Strategy also calls for the IDB Group to work with other
multilateral development banks (MDBs) as part of an integrated
system,
The IDB Group will intensify its work to develop innovative
financial instruments to mobilize more resources for addressing
development gaps and tackling climate change. The IDB Group has
pioneered innovative solutions, including debt-for-nature swaps;
climate-resilient debt clauses, which pause payments for countries
hit by natural disasters; currency-hedge platforms; and new ways to
reward borrowers that achieve nature and climate objectives, such
as our IDB CLIMA; among others.
The new strategy, along with the new business model and capital
increase for IDB Invest, and the new model for IDB Lab will
increase the scale of the Group's work by placing financial
innovation and mobilization of private-sector resources front and
center of each investment decision, strengthening selectivity and
crowding-in private investors at scale. Taken together, the
reforms, along with efforts by each institution to optimize their
balance sheets, will enable the IDB Group to increase its financing
capacity to up to $112 billion over the next 10 years.
Reforms for More Impact
Among the reforms set out in the new Strategy, the IDB Group will
ensure that impact and development effectiveness is woven into the
fabric of its structure, operations and organizational culture.
A new Impact Framework will include a set of measurable indicators
to translate the institutional priorities into clear metrics and
will serve as the primary tool for monitoring and measuring the IDB
Group's performance.
The new strategy also foresees changes to internal processes to
enhance the culture of impact and meritocracy at the IDB Group. The
first priority is to clearly define and quantify success, measure
and track progress, intended impact and evaluating outcomes. In
parallel to this sharpened focus on impact, the IDB Group is also
making changes to its human resource processes, including in its
selection processes to ensure a culture of meritocracy.
The new strategy includes proposals for greater and more efficient
investment in knowledge, including training support for countries.
It also calls for a catalogue of "cases" – including successes
and failures of programs and operations over the years. This will
allow the Group to provide more informed advice to member countries
based on accumulated evidence-based knowledge. This will enable the
IDB to become the knowledge bank of the region.
The strategy also includes changes to the Group's approach to
lending instruments to make them joint toolboxes for member
countries. Specifically, the institutional strategy proposes
reforming policy-based loans (PBL) to improve the quality and
impact of policy reforms. The objective is to strengthen the
quality, relevance, and accountability of PBLs and strategically
use them to support reforms that foster resource mobilization, the
enabling environment for private sector development, and the
provision of regional and global public goods.
A roadmap for implementing these and many other reforms has been
approved by the IDB and IDB Boards of Executive Directors.
"I am very thankful to the Board of Governors for their support and
the guidance provided by our Executive Directors. I am very
grateful and proud of our staff and confident in their talent,
resourcefulness, and dedication as we implement these changes and
make our institution more agile. I call the sum of these reforms
IDB Impact+, a new framework through which we'll achieve much more
impact, plus much more scale," President Goldfajn concluded.
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