/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/240221.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Wednesday, February 21, 2024, Vol. 25, No. 38
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
ARGENTINA: Milei Refuses Minimum Wage Hike
CLISA: S&P Upgrades ICR to 'CCC-', Outlook Negative
B O L I V I A
BOLIVIA: Fitch Lowers LongTerm Foreign Currency IDR to 'CCC'
B R A Z I L
BRAZIL: Enters 2024 Facing an Economic Slowdown
BRAZIL: Farmer Bankruptcy Filings Worry Global Grain Traders
PETROBRAS: Commits $100BB to Global Offshore Ventures
SAMARCO MINERACAO: Moody's Assigns 'B3' CFR, Outlook Stable
C A Y M A N I S L A N D S
E-HOUSE (CHINA): Chapter 15 Case Summary
C O L O M B I A
FIDEICOMISO PA COSTERA: Fitch Affirms BB+ Rating on USD & UVR Notes
D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Concerns in the Avocado Market
[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Highlights Diaspora Impact on Economy
J A M A I C A
JAMAICA: Inflation Touches One-Year High
P A R A G U A Y
PARAGUAY: Fitch Rates 2031 Bonds and 2036 USD Bonds 'BB+'
P U E R T O R I C O
BOWLING CENTER: Hires Charles A. Cuprill P.S.C. as Counsel
GAFC SERVICES: Hires Andres Gabriel Gonzalez Orengo as Realtor
- - - - -
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A R G E N T I N A
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ARGENTINA: Milei Refuses Minimum Wage Hike
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Buenos Aires Times reports that President Javier Milei has said he
will not set a new minimum wage in Argentina, despite soaring
inflation running at more than 250 percent per annum.
The bullish La Libertad Avanza leader also predicted a "rebound" in
Argentina's economy is on the cards - but only after an even
"tougher" time ahead in the next two months, according to Buenos
Aires Times.
"I don't believe that a politician can define a price by hand. I'm
not even going to issue a decree setting a price," Milei declared,
as he was asked why the nation's Consejo del Salario Minimo
(Minimum Wage Council) had failed to raise the minimum wage from
its current value of 156,000 pesos (around US$177 at the official
exchange rate), the report notes.
The opposition-aligned CGT, Argentina's largest trade union
umbrella grouping, has called for an 85 percent increase in the
minimum wage but an agreement has not been reached with employers,
the report relays. Milei's government has refused to legally set a
new value unilaterally, the report discloses.
For Milei, a self-described "anarcho-capitalist," setting a minimum
wage is "a question that has to be addressed by workers and
employers," without state intervention, the report notes.
The government announced a 311 percent increase for the Asignacion
de Ayuda Escolar (School Help Allowance) payment that reaches 7.3
million children, whose families will now receive 70,000 pesos
(US$79) to cover expenses needed for the start of the school year,
the report notes.
Since taking office last December, Milei has overseen a 50 percent
devaluation of the peso, stripped away price controls and
authorised large hikes for public transport fares, fuel and
utilities such as gas and electricity, which will continue in the
coming months as subsidies are removed, the report relays.
Consumer prices rose 20.6 percent last month and year-on-year
inflation is now running at 254.2 percent. The price of the basic
food basket for a family of four is now 285,561 pesos (US$324.50),
according to official data, the report discloses.
President Milei reaffirmed his government's economic course and
predicted that within three months the country would begin to
recover, the report notes.
"You're going to do a sort of 'V,' a first section falling, with
the hardest moment around March-April, which is when you hit rock
bottom, and then you start to bounce back, and when you open the
'cepo' [currency controls in place since 2019], [and] the economy
shoots forward," he argued, the report says.
Argentina has a US$44.5-billion credit program with the
International Monetary Fund, which had collapsed under the previous
government and was revived by Milei upon taking office, the report
discloses.
"The IMF estimates that if we continue to do this, we can clean up
the Central Bank's balance sheet and open the cepo in the middle of
the year," revealed Milei, who reaffirmed that his promise to
dollarise Argentina's economy is "ever closer" to becoming a
reality, the report says.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Javier Milei is the current
president of Argentina after winning the November 19, 2023 general
election. He succeeded Alberto Angel Fernandez in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
The IMF's executive board completed on August 23, 2023, the fifth
and six reviews of Argentina's 30-month Extended Fund Facility
(EFF), and approved a US$7.5-billion disbursement to Argentina as
part of the larger program, which refinances payments Argentina
owes the institution from a previous bailout that failed to
stabilize the economy in 2018. Argentina would receive another IMF
disbursement in November of about US$2.75 billion pending another
staff-level agreement and board approval.
S&P Global Ratings, on June 13, 2023, raised its local currency
sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC-/C' from 'SD/SD' and
0its national scale rating to 'raCCC+' from 'SD'. S&P also affirmed
its 'CCC-/C' foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on
Argentina. The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. S&P's
'CCC-' transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged. None of
its rated bond issues are affected.
S&P said the negative outlook on the long-term ratings is based on
the risks surrounding pronounced economic imbalances and policy
uncertainties before and after the 2023 national elections.
Divisions within the government coalition, and infighting among the
opposition, constrain the sovereign's ability to implement timely
changes in economic policy.
Fitch Ratings also upgraded on June 13, 2023, Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency (FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CC' from
'C'and affirmed the Long-Term Local Currency (LC) IDR at 'CCC-'.
Fitch typically does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a
rating of 'CCC+' or below.
The upgrade of the FC IDR reflects that Fitch no longer deems a
default-like process to have begun, as the authorities have not
signaled a clear intention to follow through with an intra-public
debt swap announced in March. The new 'CC' rating signals a default
event of some sort appears probable in the coming years, regardless
of the outcome of upcoming elections. The affirmation of the LC IDR
at 'CCC-' follows the peso debt swap in June that Fitch did not
deem to be a "distressed debt exchange" (DDE).
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.
CLISA: S&P Upgrades ICR to 'CCC-', Outlook Negative
---------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings raised its global scale issuer credit rating on
CLISA-Compania Latinoamericana de Infraestructura & Servicios S.A.
to 'CCC-' from 'SD' and its issue-level rating on its 2027 notes to
'CCC-' from 'D'.
The negative outlook reflects the company's weak liquidity position
amid worsening economic conditions in Argentina. The outlook also
reflects the company's heavy dependence on variables that are out
of its control to continue honoring its financial obligations
throughout the year.
S&P said, "Our positive actions on the ratings on CLISA reflect the
execution of the indenture after the company obtained consent
solicitation acceptance from 93.6% of its bondholders to fully pay
in kind the January 2024 coupon. Although the payment-in-kind (PIK)
exercised on the January 2024 interest payment brings some relief
to CLISA's cash flows--which are being pressured amid a worsening
of Argentina's macroeconomic conditions--we think the company's
liquidity will remain weak throughout the year, making it more
difficult for it to honor other financial obligations.
"For 2024, we expect a 154% devaluation of the Argentine peso,
which will increase CLISA's interest burden since about 82% of the
company's debt was denominated in foreign currency as of September
2023. In turn, we expect persistently high inflation of 250% over
the next year, which will continue to dent EBITDA margins as tariff
increases and pass-through into prices lag inflation while most
costs are largely indexed. At the same time, an acceleration of
inflation will continue to reduce the value of CLISA's collections
in Argentine pesos.
"Furthermore, we expect that the new Argentine government will
maintain very little activity related to public works during 2024
as it addresses fiscal correction. This will directly affect
CLISA's construction segment, and that will continue to deplete
CLISA's finances, including its cash generation."
Most of CLISA's EBITDA is generated in Argentina, and therefore,
it's highly exposed to restrictions on accessing or transferring
funds abroad. The new administration aims to eliminate such
restrictions as soon as it's feasible, and it has already relaxed
some, but low international reserves and limited sources of
additional funding pose a near-term constraint. These factors could
compromise the company's ability to service its foreign currency
financing obligations if the sovereign further restricts access to
FX markets.
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B O L I V I A
=============
BOLIVIA: Fitch Lowers LongTerm Foreign Currency IDR to 'CCC'
------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Bolivia's Long-Term Foreign Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'CCC' from 'B-'. Fitch typically
does not assign Outlooks to sovereigns with a rating of 'CCC+' or
below.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Rating Downgrade: The downgrade reflects a significant decline in
usable international reserves to very low levels, heightening risks
to macroeconomic stability and debt service capacity. Wide fiscal
deficits, largely financed by borrowing from the central bank, and
the absence of a concrete consolidation plan are likely to continue
to put pressure on reserves. This has resulted in foreign exchange
(FX) rationing and the emergence of parallel-market exchange rates
in the context of a stabilized currency regime. External commercial
debt service remains low during 2024-2025, which Fitch expects the
authorities will prioritize with their scarce FX liquidity, but
risks to debt service capacity are rising.
Foreign Reserves Depleted: Reserves fell USD2.1 billion during 2023
to USD1.7 billion, USD1.57 billion of which reflects gold reserves
and just USD166 million FX. The Gold Law approved in May authorized
the sale of half of gold reserves, which has since been liquidated,
leaving the stock just slightly above the minimum 22 tons permitted
by the law. However, the central bank (BCB) has begun to sell
certified gold held abroad and purchase non-certified gold from
local producers (4.6 tons in 2023), which may not be freely usable,
and it aims to purchase up to 10 tons in 2024. In December 2023,
the BCB also entered into a repo transaction with a commercial
bank, borrowing USD99 million in FX that was netted out of reserves
because it used another reserve asset as collateral, which was
likely to have been gold. Reduced timeliness of reserves data
publication has added to the uncertainty.
Balance of Payments Pressures: Fitch forecasts the current account
deficit will widen to 1.9% of GDP in 2024, from 1.5% in 2023. Gas
exports continue to decline on dwindling production, while imports
of heavily subsidized fuel remain elevated. Large errors and
emissions in balance-of-payments data likely indicate a weaker
external position given widespread contraband activity.
Political Divisions Constrain External Financing: Fragmentation
within the ruling MAS party has complicated approval of external
loans to prop up reserves. Net external disbursements totalled just
USD147 million in January-October 2023. A stock of USD3.7 billion
in external loans approved by congress and USD700 million pending
approval largely reflect project loans rather than more quickly
disbursing budget support loans. Bolivia is locked out of global
capital markets with yields on the 2028 bond at 24% as of January
2024. The BCB has changed rules to incentivize repatriation of
foreign assets by banks and investment funds which could help
alleviate near-term pressures, but a lack of policy adjustment
means external pressures are likely to continue.
External Debt Service: External debt service to private sector
creditors in 2024-2025 is low, but risks are mounting given the low
level of liquid FX reserves. Bolivia owes USD110 million in coupon
payments in both 2024 and 2025 on its 2028 and 2030 bonds, which
Fitch expects the government to continue prioritizing. The 2028
Eurobond will mature in three annual instalments of USD333 million
starting in 2026, which could pose a much greater challenge to
repayment capacity in the absence of corrective policy measures.
FX Rationing: The decline in reserves has led to FX rationing, with
some periodic fuel shortages caused by delays in FX authorization
for imports, and restriction by banks on withdrawals of FX
deposits. Given the requirement to sell FX at the official fixed
exchange rate, banks have begun to charge higher commissions. This
has meant the emergence of a parallel exchange rate market,
currently around 15%-20% above the official exchange rate. The
large presence of dollars in the informal economy may be helping to
satisfy dollar demand at this higher rate, and avoid an even larger
gap with the official rate.
Banking Sector Resilient: The banking sector has remained resilient
despite the broader macroeconomic pressures. The collapse of Banco
Fassil, the country's fourth largest bank (10% of assets), in 2023
did not have broad spillovers to the rest of the banking system.
Credit growth excluding Banco Fassil in 2023 has been positive
(10%), with deposits growing by 8%, according to banking supervisor
ASFI. NPLs remain low at 3% as of October 2023 but have increased
slightly from 2.2% in 2022.
Fiscal Deficits Remain Wide: Fitch estimates the general government
deficit rose to 6.3% of GDP in 2023, from 5.8% in 2022. Fiscal data
available through 1H23 show a fall in total revenue (1%) and
sharper decline in hydrocarbon revenues (4.3%). Lower capital
spending (down 11% thru June) has been offset by much higher
current spending (up 11%). Higher external interest costs on
floating rate multilateral debt contributed to a higher interest
burden, growing 57%. Fitch forecasts the deficit to remain wide at
5.7% in 2024. Financing of the 2023 deficit relied heavily on loans
from the BCB and the government is likely to continue to do so in
2024, with increasing risks for macroeconomic stability given the
pressure this produces on the domestic money supply and,
consequently, FX reserves.
Fitch estimates government debt rose to 71.7% of GDP at end-2023,
and projects it will rise to 73.8% in 2024, from 66.5% in 2022.
External government debt, particularly external debt to the private
sector, remains relatively low (28% and 4% of GDP, respectively).
Interest as a share of revenue remains quite low (8.1% forecasted
in 2024).
2025 Election Cycle Begins: Bolivia faces general elections in
2025, which could make any changes to subsidies or policy
adjustment politically difficult this year. Deep divisions have
emerged within the ruling MAS party. Bolivia's constitutional court
ruled in December 2023 that former president Evo Morales was barred
from running in the 2025 election. However, it remains to be seen
if this decision will be upheld and could be challenged before the
elections. Recent protests led by his supporters have resulted in
blockades and fuel shortages.
Growth Slows: Growth has slowed down as these stresses permeate
through the economy and is likely to continue to remain low over
the medium term. Fitch estimates growth slowed to 2.1% in 2023 from
3.6% in 2022 and forecasts growth of 1.8% in 2024 and 2025 as
balance of payments pressures continue to weigh on the economy,
public investment remains low, and private investment is
constrained by a weak regulatory environment. Intensification of FX
rationing or other manifestations of balance-of-payments stress is
a clear downside risk to these projections.
ESG - Governance: Bolivia has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5'
for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law,
Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank
Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in its proprietary Sovereign
Rating Model. Bolivia has a low WBGI ranking at the 24th
percentile, reflecting recent political instability, weak
regulatory quality, weak rule of law, a high level of corruption,
and moderate voice and accountability.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- External Finances: Depletion of usable foreign currency reserves
and/or disorderly policy adjustments that jeopardize
macro-financial stability and undermine the sovereign's ability to
pay debt service.
- Structural: Evidence of reduced willingness to pay external debt
as a means of alleviating current external liquidity pressures.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- External Finances: Reduced current account pressures and/or
improved access to external financing sources that rebuild usable
FX reserves, improve debt service capacity, and support the
sustainability of the stabilized exchange rate regime.
- Public Finances: Fiscal consolidation that supports stabilization
of the government debt-to-GDP ratio and improves financing
flexibility.
SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)
Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Bolivia a score equivalent to a
rating of 'B' on the Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR scale. However,
in accordance with its rating criteria, Fitch's sovereign rating
committee has not utilized the SRM and QO to explain the ratings in
this instance. Ratings of 'CCC+' and below are instead guided by
the rating definitions.
Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating
model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred
averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score
equivalent to a Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR. Fitch's QO is a
forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for
adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting
factors within its criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or
not fully reflected in the SRM.
COUNTRY CEILING
The Country Ceiling for Bolivia is 'B-', which is the floor for the
Country Ceiling absent the materialization of transfer and
convertibility risks. For sovereigns rated 'CCC+' or below, Fitch
assumes a starting point of 'CCC+' for determining the Country
Ceiling. Fitch's Country Ceiling Model produced a starting point
uplift of one notch. Fitch's rating committee did not apply a
qualitative adjustment to the model result.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Bolivia has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Political Stability
and Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest
weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the
rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As Bolivia has a
percentile rank below 50 for the respective Governance Indicator,
this has a negative impact on the credit profile.
Bolivia has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Rule of Law,
Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as
World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's
SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key
rating driver with a high weight. As Bolivia has a percentile rank
below 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a
negative impact on the credit profile.
Bolivia has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the
World Bank Governance Indicators is relevant to the rating and a
rating driver. As Bolivia has a percentile rank below 50 for the
respective Governance Indicator, this has a negative impact on the
credit profile.
Bolivia has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and
is a rating driver for Bolivia, as for all sovereigns. As Bolivia
has a fairly recent restructuring of public debt in 2006, this has
a negative impact on the credit profile.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Bolivia LT IDR CCC Downgrade B-
ST IDR C Downgrade B
LC LT IDR CCC Downgrade B-
LC ST IDR C Downgrade B
Country Ceiling B- Affirmed B-
senior
unsecured LT CCC Downgrade B-
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B R A Z I L
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BRAZIL: Enters 2024 Facing an Economic Slowdown
-----------------------------------------------
Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that after years of
benefiting from robust commodity markets, Brazil enters 2024 facing
an economic slowdown.
The forecast shows a significant drop in the grain harvest and a
prediction of only 1.60% GDP growth, down from nearly 3% the
previous year, according to Rio Times Online.
This trend underlines Brazil's ongoing dependency on commodities, a
reliance that poses both challenges and opportunities, the report
notes.
Recent projections signal a 4.2% decrease in grain production,
affecting the broader economy, the report relays.
About Brazil
Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022 Brazilian
general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as the 39th
president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.
Fitch Ratings upgraded on July 26, 2023, Brazil's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BB', from 'BB-',
with a Stable Outlook. The upgrade reflects better-than-expected
macroeconomic and fiscal performance amid successive shocks in
recent years, proactive policies and reforms that have supported
this, and Fitch's expectation that the new government will work
toward further improvements.
In mid-June 2023, S&P Global Ratings, revised the outlook on its
long-term global scale ratings on Brazil to positive from stable.
S&P affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term foreign and local
currency sovereign credit ratings on Brazil. S&P also affirmed its
'brAAA' national scale rating, and the outlook remains stable. The
transfer and convertibility assessment remains 'BB+'. The positive
outlook reflects signs of greater certainty about stable fiscal and
monetary policy that could benefit Brazil's still-low GDP growth
prospects. Continued GDP growth plus the emerging framework for
fiscal policy could result in a smaller government debt burden than
expected, which could support monetary flexibility and sustain the
country's net external position.
Moody's credit rating for Brazil was last set at Ba2 in 2018 with
stable outlook. Moody's affirmed the Ba2 issuer ratings and
senior unsecured bond ratings in April 2022.
DBRS Inc., on August 15, 2023, upgraded Brazil's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings to BB from BB (low).
At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed Brazil's
Short-term Foreign and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings at R-4.
The trend on all ratings is Stable (March 2018).
BRAZIL: Farmer Bankruptcy Filings Worry Global Grain Traders
------------------------------------------------------------
globalinsolvency.com, citing Reuters, reports that Brazilian grain
exporters lobby Anec warned it was concerned about a rise in farmer
bankruptcy filings in the country, adding a recent increase in
cases potentially compromises the execution of grain contracts.
The rise in farmer bankruptcy cases, which may affect delivery of
committed grains throughout the season, may also hamper traders'
ability to complete their export programs, Anec said, according to
globalinsolvency.com.
Farmer groups, including Aprosoja-Mato Grosso and Aprosoja Brasil,
did not have an immediate comment.
"Anec views with great concern the growth in the number of requests
of judicial recovery," the statement said, the report notes.
"Farmers have been offered - indiscriminately and often maliciously
- the judicial recovery procedure as a means of renegotiation of
debts and contracts," Anec said referring to loans and also soy and
corn contracts, the report relays.
Anec represents global grain merchants, including ADM, Bunge,
Cargill, Louis Dreyfus Commodities and China's Cofco, among others,
the report discloses.
Brazil is the world's biggest soybean producer and exporter, and a
major corn provider to clients in Asia, Europe and the Middle East,
the report says.
In the current season, however, Brazilian grain production will be
below expectations because of the negative effect of the El Nino
weather pattern on crops, the report notes. El Nino caused a
severe drought in the center-west of Brazil, reducing soy yields
and production potential in the nation's largest farm state Mato
Grosso, the report adds.
About Brazil
Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022 Brazilian
general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as the 39th
president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.
S&P Global Ratings raised on Dec. 19, 2023, its long-term global
scale ratings on Brazil to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook on the
long-term ratings is stable. S&P affirmed Brazil's global scale
short-term ratings at 'B' and its national scale long-term rating
at 'brAAA'. S&P also raised the transfer and convertibility
assessment on the country to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. S&P said, "The
stable outlook reflects our expectation that Brazil will maintain a
strong external position, thanks to strong commodity output and
limited external financing needs. We also believe Brazil's
institutional framework can sustain stable and pragmatic
policymaking based on extensive checks and balances across the
executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government. We
expect a very gradual fiscal correction but anticipate fiscal
deficits will remain large."
Fitch Ratings affirmed on Dec. 15, 2023, Brazil's Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with a Stable
Outlook. Fitch said Brazil's ratings are supported by its large and
diverse economy, high per-capita income, and deep domestic markets
and a large cash cushion that support the sovereign's financing
flexibility and its high local-currency debt share. Strong external
finances support resilience to shocks, underpinned by a flexible
exchange rate, robust international reserves and a sovereign net
external creditor position. The ratings are constrained by weak
economic growth potential, relatively low governance scores, high
and rising government debt/GDP, and budgetary rigidities. A new
fiscal framework introduced this year aims to anchor a gradual
consolidation process and address these fiscal weaknesses, but its
effectiveness is increasingly unclear.
Moody's credit rating for Brazil was last set at Ba2 in 2018 with
stable outlook. Moody's affirmed the Ba2 issuer ratings and
senior unsecured bond ratings in April 2022.
DBRS Inc., on August 15, 2023, upgraded Brazil's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings to BB from BB (low).
At the same time, DBRS Morningstar confirmed Brazil's
Short-term Foreign and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings at R-4.
The trend on all ratings is Stable (March 2018).
PETROBRAS: Commits $100BB to Global Offshore Ventures
-----------------------------------------------------
Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that Brazil's Petroleo
Brasileiro S.A. or Petrobras plans a $100 billion investment in
offshore oil exploration and production, CEO Jean Paul Prates
announced.
As Latin America's leading oil firm, it targets global growth,
eyeing Europe, West Africa, and the Americas, according to Rio
Times Online.
This move aims to make Brazil a frontrunner in offshore wind
energy, aligning with the global pivot from fossil fuels, the
report notes.
Prates highlighted a careful approach to exploring new avenues
while securing oil sector presence, the report relays.
Under President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Petrobras revisits its
focus, boosting its capital budget, the report adds.
About Petrobras
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. or Petrobras (in English, Brazilian
Petroleum Corporation - Petrobras) is a semi-public Brazilian
multinational corporation in the petroleum industry headquartered
in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Petrobras control significant oil and
energy assets in 16 countries in Africa, the Americas, Europe and
Asia. But, Brazil represents majority of its production.
The Brazilian government directly owns 54% of Petrobras' common
shares with voting rights, while the Brazilian Development Bank
and
Brazil's Sovereign Wealth Fund (Fundo Soberano) each control 5%,
bringing the State's direct and indirect ownership to 64%.
A corruption scandal was uncovered in 2014 that involved
Petrobras.
The scandal related to money laundering that involved Petrobras
executives. The executives were alleged to get received kickbacks
from overpriced contracts, to the tune of about $3 billion in
total. Over a thousand warrants were issued against politicians
and businessmen in relation to the scandal. In 2016, Marcelo
Odebrecht, CEO of Odebrecht, was sentenced to 19 years in prison
after being convicted of paying more than $30 million in bribes to
Petrobras executives.
In January 2018, Petrobras agreed to pay $2.95 billion to settle a
U.S. class action corruption lawsuit. In September 2018, Petrobras
agreed to pay $853.2 million to settle with Brazilian and U.S.
authorities.
In July 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Petrobras' BB- Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating. In addition, Fitch has revised the Rating
Outlook to Stable from Negative following a similar revision to
Brazil's Sovereign Rating Outlook. Also in July 2022, Egan-Jones
Ratings Company upgraded the foreign currency and local currency
senior unsecured ratings on debt issued by Petrobras to BB+ from
BB.
In January 2024, S&P Global Ratings assigned a new management &
governance (M&G) assessment of moderately negative to Brazil-based
Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras. At the same time, S&P has
affirmed its issuer credit ratings on Petrobras at 'BB' on the
global scale and 'brAAA' on the Brazilian national scale. S&P has
also affirmed its issue-level ratings on the company, and removed
all its ratings from under criteria observation (UCO).
SAMARCO MINERACAO: Moody's Assigns 'B3' CFR, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has assigned a B3 corporate family rating
to Samarco Mineracao S.A. and to its $3.9 billion senior unsecured
notes due 2031. The outlook is stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The B3 ratings of Samarco Mineracao S.A. (Samarco) reflect
Samarco's capital structure resulting from the judicial recovery.
The terms approved under the judicial recovery allowed Samarco to
materially reduce debt levels and direct cash flows to the full
ramp-up of its operations, which the company expects to achieve
through 2028. The B3 ratings also reflect the operational
constraints and financial liabilities Samarco faces as a
consequence of the Fundao dam disaster in November 2015, which led
to the full interruption of operations through end of 2020 and
significant liabilities under the so-called Framework Agreement
established in 2016.
The rating assignment follows the confirmation of the judicial
recovery under Brazilian Court on August 30, 2023 and under Chapter
15 of the US bankruptcy Court issued on October 10, 2023 by the
United States Bankruptcy Court of the Southern District of New
York. The rating assumes that the judicial recovery plan will be
implemented as approved and within the established deadlines.
The senior unsecured notes issued in December 2023 and due 2031 are
part of judicial recovery plan. Capital structure post-judicial
recovery consists of about $4.0 billion total debt (including $260
million in debt to shareholders) compared to $4.8 billion of listed
financial claims before the judicial recovery (excluding
shareholders' claims). Samarco issued $3.7 billion in 9% senior
unsecured notes due 2031, which were exchanged for the previous
notes outstanding (due 2022, 2023, 2024), and an additional $259.6
million in 9% senior unsecured notes owed to Samarco's
shareholders. Shareholders subordinated claims (treated as
related-party transactions, with no interest payment and no defined
maturity date) amount to $3.8 billion and are not treated as
financial debt.
As Samarco's operations are constrained – the company is
currently operating at 26%-30% of nominal production capacity (or
about 9 million tons of pellets), cash flows are still relatively
weak. However, the judicial recovery plan limits obligations
related to remediation and compensation measures (implemented
through the Renova Foundation) as a consequence of the tailings dam
disaster in November 2015, which allows Samarco to direct cash
flows to its operations and capex needs. Production will materially
increase in 2025 and 2028, with the re-start of two additional
concentrators, which will take capacity to 60% and 100%
utilization, respectively. The viability of Samarco's operations
in the Germano complex is predominantly linked to the availability
of storage structures required to accommodate the output levels of
its concentrators. The main operational risk is related to delays
for the start-up of the concentrators, which is mitigated by the
fact that the timeline for the second concentrator starting in 2025
is on schedule and all required licenses are in place.
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Samarco will
conclude the implementation of the debt restructuring according to
the judicial recovery plan, while the company continues to invest
for the ramp-up of its operations, with the start-up of its second
concentrator in 2025 and the third concentrator in 2028. The
outlook also reflects Samarco's financial strategy and capital
allocation as stated in the judicial recovery plan, which allows
the company to meet debt obligations while it continues to invest
in the operations.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL & GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
As for the environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors
incorporated into Samarco's ratings, Moody's considers Samarco's
high exposure to environmental risks, associated primarily with
natural capital and waste and pollution (including credit
implications of the tailings dam disaster), and to social risks,
arising mainly from health and safety concerns around the
operations, which is inherent to the mining industry, as well as
responsible production, given the tailings dams accident in 2015
and implications to the surrounding communities and room for
additional lawsuits. Governance considerations reflect Samarco's
judicial recovery plan and the still limited track record of
financial strategy and risk management under the recently
implemented capital structure.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
An upgrade would require Samarco to expand its scale – thus
allowing for higher fixed cost dilution - with the ramp-up of its
operations, strengthening its cash flows and reducing leverage.
Quantitively, an upgrade would require that the company generates
positive free cash flow on a sustained basis and maintains leverage
below 2x.
Samarco's ratings could be downgraded if its profitability and cash
generation capacity deteriorate significantly as a consequence of a
decline in metal prices (iron ore pellets) or significantly lower
production volumes, or the company is not able to fulfill the
conditions stated in the judicial recovery plan relative to the
changes in the capital structure.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Mining
published in October 2021.
Samarco Mineracao S.A. ("Samarco") is a 50%-50% joint-venture
between mining companies Vale S.A. (Baa3, stable) and BHP Billiton
Brazil Ltda, owned by BHP Group Limited (A1, stable). The company
is a major exporter of seaborne iron ore pellets worldwide with
operations located in Espírito Santo and Minas Gerais, in the
Southeast region of Brazil. The company has a fully integrated
business model with a nominal capacity to produce 30 million Mt of
pellets annually. In the afternoon of November 5, 2015, an accident
occurred with a tailings dam, also partially affecting another dam
– a water dam - next to the industrial operations at the Germano
beneficiation units and next to Samarco's iron ore mines, releasing
mine tailings, flooding one nearby community and impacting many
other communities downstream. Samarco resumed operations in
December 2020, after five years of full stoppage due to the
tailings dam accident in November 2015. Samarco is currently
operating with about 26-30% of its nominal capacity.
===========================
C A Y M A N I S L A N D S
===========================
E-HOUSE (CHINA): Chapter 15 Case Summary
----------------------------------------
Chapter 15 Debtor: E-House (China) Enterprise Holdings Limited
Ugland House, P.O. Box 309
Grand Cayman KY1-1104
Foreign
Proceeding: Scheme of Arrangement Under Sec. 86 of
Cayman Islands Companies Act
Chapter 15
Petition Date: February 14, 2024
Court: United States Bankruptcy Court
Southern District of New York
Case No.: 24-10234
Judge: Hon. Judge Philip Bentley
Foreign
Representative: Alexander Lawson
Foreign
Representative's
Counsel: Lisa Laukitis, Esq.
SKADDEN, ARPS, SLATE, MEAGHER & FLOM LLP
Tel: 212-735-3000
E-mail: lisa.laukitis@skadden.com
Estimated Assets: Unknown
Estimated Debt: Unknown
A full-text copy of the Chapter 15 petition is now available for
download at PacerMonitor.com.
===============
C O L O M B I A
===============
FIDEICOMISO PA COSTERA: Fitch Affirms BB+ Rating on USD & UVR Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the following Fideicomiso P.A. Costera
(Costera) ratings:
- USD150.8 million USD bonds at 'BB+'; Outlook Stable;
- COP327,000 million UVR bonds at 'BB+'/'AAA(col)'; Outlook
Stable;
- COP135,000 million UVR loan at 'BB+'/'AAA(col)'; Outlook Stable;
- COP250,000 million COP Loan A at 'AAA(col)'; Outlook Stable;
- COP300,000 million COP Loan B at 'AAA(col)'; Outlook Stable.
RATING RATIONALE
The ratings are based on a concession agreement structure that
limits revenue risks due to the existence of traffic top-ups and
grant payments. The ratings are further supported by an adequate
tariff mechanism that allows annual adjustments of toll rates by
inflation. The ratings also incorporate a strong debt structure
characterized by several prefunded reserve accounts, distribution
tests, a cash sweep mechanism and robust liquidity mechanisms.
Under the Fitch rating case, the loan life coverage ratio (LLCR) is
1.6x, which is strong for the rating category according to Fitch's
applicable criteria and the project's revenue profile, but is
constrained by the transaction's exposure to the credit quality of
Agencia Nacional de Infraestructura (ANI). ANI is a credit-linked
entity to the Government of Colombia (Local Currency IDR
BB+/Stable).
Costera continues the negotiation with ANI to reconcile the final
amount for the top-up payment of the eight-concession year (DR8).
Although ANI has yet to recognize the full calculation as per the
Concessionaire, due to differences in the application of the
payment formula, a second payment was received in November 2023.
Fitch believes Costera can withstand temporary liquidity stress
periods as it benefits from 12-month debt service reserve accounts
(DSRAs) and subordinated multipurpose credit facility (SMF).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Low Exposure to Volume Risk - Volume Risk: High Midrange
The project's main revenue sources are ANI's contributions and toll
revenues in the form of toll collection and traffic top-up
payments. Traffic revenues are not subject to demand or price risk,
even if traffic volumes are severely below expectations or expected
price increases are not implemented. ANI will periodically
compensate the concessionaire if toll collections are below the
amounts established in the concession contract. Historic traffic
data shows low-to-moderate volatility. The road is expected to face
limited competition during its operational stage, since the
alternatives are longer and have lower average speeds. Toll tariffs
and elasticity are moderate.
Sources of revenue are subject to infrastructure availability,
service levels and quality standards, based on fulfillment of
indicators provided in the concession agreement. There are clearly
defined, unambiguous, back-to-back penalty deduction mechanisms in
the concession agreement with robust cure periods. Deductions are
legally capped at 10%. Fines imposed on the concessionaire and
penalty clauses if the agreement is terminated early are limited by
the contract.
Inflation Adjusted Tolls - Price Risk: Midrange
Tariffs are inflation-adjusted annually. After the Colombian
government issued a national decree to unfreeze toll rates, tariffs
were effectively updated in January 2024 according to the inflation
of 2022. Whereas the catch-up mechanism to account for the
inflation of 2023 is yet to be defined, the concession agreement
protects against discretionary discounts or tariff variations,
allowing a quarterly compensation of loss revenues to the
concessionaire. Toll rates are moderate, and if the net present
value of toll collections received by the eighth, 13th, 18th, and
last year of the concession is below guaranteed values, ANI is
obligated to cover any shortfalls, after deductions.
Well-Established Maintenance Plan - Infrastructure Development and
Renewal: Midrange
The project depends on the concessionaire directly implementing a
moderately developed capital and maintenance plan. Project cash
flows will primarily fund the program. The O&M plan, organizational
structure and budget, appear reasonable and in line with similar
projects in Colombia.
In addition, the concessionaire will have a liquid support
instrument equivalent to the maximum amount of O&M expenses
forecast for six months. This instrument must be issued by a
financial entity with a minimum credit rating of 'BBB-' or
'AA+(col)'. The structure also includes a dynamic 12-month,
forward-looking O&M reserve to account for routine and periodic
maintenance expenditures.
Robust Debt Structure - Debt Structure: Stronger
The debt is fully amortizing, senior secured, comprising USD-, UVR-
and COP-denominated financings. USD-denominated debt is matched
with USD-linked currency revenues settled in COP (34% of future
budget allocations [Vigencias Futuras] are USD-linked), were issued
at a fixed rate. The transaction includes a short-term hedging
mechanism provided by eligible counterparties to cover FX risk
exposure fully. UVR- and COP-denominated debt are indexed to
inflation and are not exposed to basis risk.
Structural features include multiple reserve accounts and a cash
sweep mechanism. Robust liquidity mechanisms are in place to
mitigate liquidity/budgetary risk, construction delays, and reduced
cash flow generation due to low traffic performance. The
transaction has a fully committed, revolving subordinated SMF,
equal to 15% of outstanding senior debt, in which eligible lenders
have committed to disburse funds to the project company when
necessary. Additional liquidity includes 12-month P&I, prefunded
onshore and offshore DSRAs.
Financial Profile
Fitch's rating case LLCR is 1.6x. This metric is strong for the
ratings, according to Fitch's applicable criteria, and when
compared with other similarly rated transactions, especially in
light of the project's low exposure to volume risk. Costera can
withstand temporary liquidity stress periods as it benefits from
12-month DSRAs and the SMF.
PEER GROUP
Costera is comparable with Fideicomiso P.A. Pacifico 3 (Pacifico;
BB+/Stable, AA+[col]/Positive) and P.A. Autopista Rio Magdalena
(ARM; BB+/AA+[col]/Rating Watch Negative). The three projects are
part of Colombia's 4G toll road program, present similar revenue
streams, and have debt structures with robust mechanisms that
result in a low exposure to volume risk. However, Pacifico and ARM
are still under the construction phase with varied degree of
advance, which supports lower national scale ratings. Pacifico's
Positive Outlook for the national scale rating reflects the
satisfactory progress of its construction phase, while ARM's Rating
Watch Negative reflects its exposure to the deteriorated credit
quality of its EPC contractor.
Costera's LLCR is higher than both Pacifico (1.4x) and ARM (1.3x).
Costera's and Pacifico's ratings are constrained by the credit
quality of ANI, while ARM's ratings are constrained by exposure to
completion risk.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Deterioration of the financial and/or operational performance of
the project that leads to a minimum projected LLCR below 1.3x under
Fitch rating case assumptions;
- Deterioration of Fitch's view of the credit quality of ANI's
contributions to the project.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Improvement in Fitch's view of the credit quality of ANI's
contributions to the project.
CREDIT UPDATE
As of December 2023, all construction works had finalized, as
confirmed by the independent engineer. Considering the project
completion status under the financing documents, the issuer was
granted an extension up to February 2023 to avoid a breach with the
lenders. As of the date of this review, such extension has expired
and an additional extension is needed to complete the punch-list
items for UF6 and to resolve an ongoing claim between the
Concessionaire and the EPC Contractor due to the withholding of
payments to the latter for quality purposes. While the
concessionaire has yet to obtain this further extension, not
reaching this milestone only prevents distributions to the
concessionaire but does not constitute an event of default under
the financing documents.
Repair works in UF3 that started in December 2022, continued
throughout 2023. These works required the closure of approximately
1km of roadway and derived from a subsidence occurred in October
2022 in a section that was built by the previous concessionaire and
received by the current Concessionaire to perform O&M. Since the
collapse occurred in only one lane, the other lane was opened in
both directions in order to avoid closure of traffic flow. The
affected section became operational again in December 2023, after
14 months of disruption.
In 2023, the project reached an average annual daily traffic (AADT)
of 26,545 vehicles, 34% above 2022, 37% above Fitch's rating case
expectation of 19,409 vehicles and 30.2% above Fitch's base case
expectation of 20,382 vehicles. Traffic outperformance was mainly
driven by the substantial increase in traffic volume at the Papiros
toll station (152% against 2022 traffic). According to the
concessionaire, traffic was boosted by the closure of a competing
road from November 2022 to March 2023, after it was damaged by
heavy rains. It was also boosted by the government's intervention,
with a tariff mechanism by which toll payments for all vehicles in
Papiros were suspended between Feb. 10 and June 15, 2023. After
this period, the suspension remained in place for light vehicles,
which account for 97% of traffic at this station, and will be valid
until Feb. 15, 2024. Differentiated tariffs were established for
the rest of the categories. The concessionaire expects the
reactivation of payment will translate into a traffic reduction of
around 30% in Papiros. For that toll booth only, Fitch's rating
case assumes traffic goes back to the October 2022 AADT to match
volume levels with the existing traffic before the impact of the
aforementioned positive externalities, which is equivalent to a 67%
decrease.
Despite the suspension of payment in Papiros and the special
tariffs applied to light vehicles in the Marahuaco and Puerto
Colombia toll booths, collected toll revenues reached COP85.3
billion in 2023, which represents only a small decrease of 0.3%
from 2022 revenues. Revenue was between Fitch's base and rating
projections of COP86.4 billion and COP84.3 billion, respectively.
ANI must compensate for revenues lost due to the application of the
discounted/null tolls. According to Costera, the compensation for
the November 2022 to June 2023 period is around COP22 billion and
is expected to be received in the coming months.
In January 2024, the government announced tariffs would be
increased by 2022 inflation of 13.1%. Tariffs were already updated
accordingly, while special tariffs remain at Papiros and Marahuaco
stations. At the date of this commentary, there is no official
announcement regarding when the 2023 inflationary tariff adjustment
will be made. Given ANI is obliged to meet the contingent
obligations generated in the concession projects, the
concessionaire expects to receive around COP14.1 billion between
February and April 2024 as compensation for the 2023 loss in
revenues.
Operational expenditures and capex reached COP73 billion in 2023,
which were below Fitch's projections of COP82 billion in the base
case and COP83 billion in the rating case, due to lower capex
needs. The budget for 2024 assumes a 7.5% increase in this
category.
Concerning the DR8 payment, a new amount of COP113.4 billion was
recognized by ANI, which is higher than ANI's original calculation
but still below the concessionaire's estimates of COP166.4 billion.
Since ANI had made the first installment payment earlier in
February 2023, after recognizing the new amount, a second and final
payment was issued to the concessionaire in December 2023.
In the last date of payment of January 2024, approximately COP98
billion were drawn from the COP DSRA and around USD12 million were
drawn from the offshore DSRA, in order to serve the debt. Reserves
were used to complement CFADS, as has occurred in every prior date
of payment. According to the concessionaire, the current balances
of the DSRAs are COP135.7 billion and USD6.4 million, which account
for 88.7% and 34.4% of the target amounts. Fitch expects the
reserves to be fully replenished by mid-2025. In addition to the
DSRAs, the project counts with a secured, multipurpose loan
facility (SMF) with COP217.5 billion currently available.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Fitch's base case assumes that from 2024-2033 traffic for
Galapa/Juan Mina toll booths will grow at a CAGR of 2.5%, while
Marahuaco and Puerto Colombia will grow at a CAGR of 2.9% and 3.1%,
respectively. For Papiros, light vehicle tolls are expected to be
restored in February 2024, after 13 months of serving as a
toll-free option. Fitch expects traffic to suffer a 33.6% decrease
in 2024 at this station.
Fitch considers an inflation catch-up in tariffs is likely to occur
within the next two years. Fitch's base case assumes tariffs are
updated in January 2025 considering both the inflation of 2024 and
2023 (9.28%). Afterwards, regular inflation updates are projected.
O&M and major maintenance expenses were increased by inflation plus
5% and 3%, respectively, every year from the Concessionaire's
budget. The performance ratio was assumed at 98%. Inflation is
projected at 6.0% in 2024, 3.8% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026 onwards.
Fitch assumes FBAs payment would present a three-month delay. As
for the top-up payments for the 13th, 18th and last year of the
concession, 80% of each DR is assumed to be received in time while
the remaining 20% is assumed to be delayed up to the maximum time
allowed by the concession, i.e., 18 months. The assumptions
represent the maximum days of delay permitted before a termination
event is triggered according to the concession agreement. Under
this scenario, minimum LLCR is 1.7x.
Fitch's rating case assumes, from 2024 to 2033, traffic for the
Galapa and Juan Mina toll booths will grow at a CAGR of 1.4%, while
Marahuaco and Puerto Colombia will grow at a CAGR of 1.7% and 2.2%,
respectively. As for Papiros, it is assumed that in 2024 traffic
will grow not concerning 2023's full-year AADT, but concerning the
October 2022 AADT, before traffic was disrupted by the closure of
the alternative road and the tariff intervention, which results in
a 67.3% traffic decrease with respect to 2023. After 2024, traffic
is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.7%.
Fitch's rating case splits the tariff catch-up between 2025 and
2026, so the increase is gradually felt by the users. In those
years, Fitch assumes the tariff update will consider the applicable
inflation of the previous year plus 50% of the 2023 inflation,
i.e., 4.64% additional to the regular update. Afterwards, regular
inflation updates are projected.
O&M expenses were increased by inflation plus 7% and major
maintenance expenses were increased by inflation plus 5%, for every
year from the concessionaire's budget. The performance ratio was
assumed at 95%. Fitch assumes the same inflation figures, toll rate
increases and delays in FBAs and top-up payments than in the base
case. Under this scenario, minimum LLCR is 1.6x.
SECURITY
In September 2014, Concesion Cartagena-Barranquilla was granted a
25-year concession for the construction, rehabilitation,
improvement, operation and/or maintenance of 156.8km of roads
located in the departments of Atlantico and Bolivar, Colombia.
Concesion Cartagena-Barranquilla, the project company, is owned
100% by Interconexión Eléctrica S.A.E.S.P. (ISA; BBB/Stable)
through its subsidiary ISA Intervial Chile.
The project aims to connect two of the main ports of Colombia:
Cartagena and Barranquilla. The port of Barranquilla covers two
main routes, the Magdalena River, which communicates with the
interior of the country, and the Caribbean Sea, connecting goods
that are traded from/to the U.S., Europe and Asia. The port of
Cartagena is the third busiest in the Caribbean Sea.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Fideicomiso P.A.
Costera
Fideicomiso P.A.
Costera/Project
Revenues - First
Lien/1 LT LT BB+ Affirmed BB+
Fideicomiso P.A.
Costera/Project
Revenues - First
Lien/1 Natl LT Natl LT AAA(col)Affirmed AAA(col)
===================================
D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C
===================================
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Concerns in the Avocado Market
--------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that Dominican Republic should continue
taking advantage of the avocado market but with responsible crop
management not to pay Mexico's ecological price.
The global market value of this fruit reached $13.97 billion in
2021, and some predict it will exceed $26 billion by 2030,
according to Dominican Today.
Avocado (including all varieties and all destination markets) is
the third largest edible agricultural product exported by the
Dominican Republic, below cocoa and bananas, the report notes.
In 2023, fruit exports totaled US$97.2 million after rising to
US$67.5 million in 2020, US$77.9 million in 2021, and US$79.7
million in 2022, the report recalls. These figures place the
country as one of the largest avocado producers in the world,
ranking fifth globally, the report says.
The United States is the primary market for Dominican avocados,
accounting for approximately 48% of total exports, the report
notes.
This market is growing, and new markets are opening for the
country, such as Jamaica, in the Caribbean, whose government
recently opened imports of Dominican fruit after eliminating
phytosanitary restrictions that prevented access to that market,
the report relays.
The country has been prosperous in the different varieties of
avocado it grows (especially Hass and Green Peel, because the
Dominican Republic has the advantage of being an island located in
the tropics, where the fruits receive a lot of sun, and that is
reflected in the quality of the fruit; but in the Green Peel niche,
it has a unique potential, the report relays.
This explains why a strategy was worked on between 2015 and 2020 to
turn the country into the first major world exporter of Green Peel
avocado, which the United States Department of Agriculture funded,
the report notes.
As part of that strategy, in August 2022, they eliminated the
descriptions that the United States had with producers of the same
variant in the Florida area, which hindered access to Dominican
fruit, the report says.
The report relays that Dominican exporters have taken another step
to strengthen their participation in the U.S. market: they have
created the collective brand Dom Tropical Avocado from the
Dominican Republic, which will identify avocados produced in the
Dominican Republic for export to the western United States.
While this is happening, Mexico, the leading exporter to the United
States, is facing difficulties due to intensive avocado production
that has generated a loss of biodiversity, extreme weather
conditions, and extensive soil degradation to the point that an
environmental catastrophe is already feared, the report discloses.
This should serve as a lesson for the Dominican Republic, which
should take advantage of the opportunities offered by the world's
avocado market but with responsible management of this crop, the
report says.
This means that the proper areas for its cultivation must be
delimited, and obvious rules must be established for its management
to preserve the environment, the report notes.
Among the recommendations to reduce the carbon footprint caused by
avocado cultivation is to prioritize polycultures over
monocultures, which reduces erosion rates by 50% and lowers the
accumulated energy demand by 7.4 times, the report relays.
Studies have confirmed that, in particular, associating cocoa and
avocado crops allows for good carbon fixation, which contributes to
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the report notes.
If the country takes these steps, it will ensure the sustainability
of the avocado business and continue to please consumers' palates
at an environmental cost that is not as high as the one Mexico has
begun to pay, the report adds.
About Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.
TCR-LA reported in April 2019 that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."
An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.
On December 4, 2023, the TCR-LA reported that Fitch Ratings has
affirmed Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' and revised the Outlook to Positive
from Stable. Fitch says the Positive Outlook reflects a trend
improvement in governance, and robust growth prospects that should
lead to continued gains in per capita income. According to Fitch,
growth has decelerated in 2023, but it expects Dominican Republic
to recover to high levels during 2024-2025. External liquidity
metrics have improved in recent years, and foreign currency share
of government debt is on a downward path.
In August 2023, Moody's Investors Service changed the outlook on
the Government of Dominican Republic's ratings to positive from
stable and affirmed the local and foreign-currency long-term issuer
and senior unsecured ratings at Ba3. Moody's said the key drivers
for the outlook change to positive are: (i) sustained high growth
rates have enhanced the scale and wealth levels of the economy; and
(ii) a material decline in the government debt burden coupled with
improved fiscal policy effectiveness will support medium-term debt
sustainability.
The affirmation of the Ba3 ratings balances the Dominican
Republic's strong economic growth dynamics and relatively contained
susceptibility to event risks, with a comparatively weaker fiscal
position, reflecting long-standing credit challenges which include:
(i) a shallow revenue base compared to peers, (ii) weak debt
affordability metrics, and (iii) high exposure to foreign currency
borrowing.
S&P Global Ratings, in December 2022, raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Dominican
Republic to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook on the long-term ratings
is stable. S&P affirmed its 'B' short-term sovereign credit
ratings. S&P also revised its transfer and convertibility (T&C)
assessment to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. The stable outlook reflects S&P's
expectation of continued favorable GDP growth and policy continuity
over the next 12-18 months that will likely stabilize the
government's debt burden.
In February 2023, S&P said its BB ratings reflect the country's
fast-growing and resilient economy. It also incorporates the
country's historical political and social challenges in passing
structural reforms to contain fiscal deficits, despite recent
improvements in the electricity sector. The ratings are constrained
by relatively high debt, a hefty interest burden, and limited
monetary policy flexibility.
[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Highlights Diaspora Impact on Economy
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Dominican Today reports that during a speech on Capitol Hill,
Washington, United States, the Dominican ambassador to the United
States, Sonia Guzman, highlighted the Dominican community's impact
abroad on the Dominican Republic's domestic economy.
Sonia Guzman said that according to Central Bank figures, in 2023,
the country received US$10,157.2 million in remittances, according
to Dominican Today. Of this, some US$8,532 million, 84% of the
total received, came from the community established in the United
States, the report notes.
Guzman also highlighted that the United States continues to be the
Dominican Republic's leading trading partner, claiming that in
2023, bilateral trade between the Dominican Republic and the United
States totaled US$18,072 million, where it exported a total of
US$6,489 million in Dominican products and goods to the United
States, representing 54.38% of the total exported by the country,
the report relays.
"Exports from the DR to the US has not been reduced; what decreased
were mining exports due to a drop in their production and prices,"
informed the diplomat.
She also noted that the United States is the number one country
issuing non-resident foreign tourists to the Dominican Republic,
representing 46.8% of the total number of tourists received, the
report notes.
Professional Growth of Dominicans
During her speech at the Capitol, Sonia Guzman said, "The Dominican
community in the United States is a moving force that continues to
grow, not only in quantity, averaging about 2.3 million, but also
in quality, as more and more Dominicans living in the United States
have been educated and overcome, and currently occupy positions of
relevance at the political, commercial, cultural, academic,
economic, health and other levels, which fills us with pride," the
report relays.
Guzman added, "Dominicans are the fourth largest Latino community
in the US, after Mexicans, Salvadorans, and Cubans, and we know how
they have been efficiently integrating into US society and have
reached levels of employment and education like never before," the
report notes.
Diplomatic Relations Between DR and the US
The Dominican ambassador to the US, Sonia Guzman, indicated that
the Dominican Republic and the United States will celebrate 140
years of diplomatic relations established in 1884 next March, the
report notes.
She said that the relationship between the two countries continues
to be one of friendship and close collaboration, as was highlighted
during the visit of President Luis Abinader to the White House last
November, where he held a successful bilateral meeting in the Oval
Office of the White House with President Joe Biden, in the
framework of the summit of heads of states of the Alliance for
Economic Prosperity of the Americas (APEP), the report says.
The ambassador indicated that this alliance focuses on the
development of regional economic competitiveness and the promotion
of greater inclusion to contribute to financial stability and
prosperity, which is part of the program of the Dominican
Presidency, as is the prosperity of all Dominicans, both those
living in the national territory and those residing abroad, the
report discloses.
Sonia Guzman congratulated all Dominicans who have put down roots
in the United States of America and urged them to remain united,
working, and always maintaining a close link with the Dominican
Republic, the report adds.
About Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.
TCR-LA reported in April 2019 that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."
An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.
On December 4, 2023, the TCR-LA reported that Fitch Ratings has
affirmed Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' and revised the Outlook to Positive
from Stable. Fitch says the Positive Outlook reflects a trend
improvement in governance, and robust growth prospects that should
lead to continued gains in per capita income. According to Fitch,
growth has decelerated in 2023, but it expects Dominican Republic
to recover to high levels during 2024-2025. External liquidity
metrics have improved in recent years, and foreign currency share
of government debt is on a downward path.
In August 2023, Moody's Investors Service changed the outlook on
the Government of Dominican Republic's ratings to positive from
stable and affirmed the local and foreign-currency long-term issuer
and senior unsecured ratings at Ba3. Moody's said the key drivers
for the outlook change to positive are: (i) sustained high growth
rates have enhanced the scale and wealth levels of the economy; and
(ii) a material decline in the government debt burden coupled with
improved fiscal policy effectiveness will support medium-term debt
sustainability.
The affirmation of the Ba3 ratings balances the Dominican
Republic's strong economic growth dynamics and relatively contained
susceptibility to event risks, with a comparatively weaker fiscal
position, reflecting long-standing credit challenges which include:
(i) a shallow revenue base compared to peers, (ii) weak debt
affordability metrics, and (iii) high exposure to foreign currency
borrowing.
S&P Global Ratings, in December 2022, raised its long-term foreign
and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the Dominican
Republic to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook on the long-term ratings
is stable. S&P affirmed its 'B' short-term sovereign credit
ratings. S&P also revised its transfer and convertibility (T&C)
assessment to 'BBB-' from 'BB+'. The stable outlook reflects S&P's
expectation of continued favorable GDP growth and policy continuity
over the next 12-18 months that will likely stabilize the
government's debt burden.
In February 2023, S&P said its BB ratings reflect the country's
fast-growing and resilient economy. It also incorporates the
country's historical political and social challenges in passing
structural reforms to contain fiscal deficits, despite recent
improvements in the electricity sector. The ratings are constrained
by relatively high debt, a hefty interest burden, and limited
monetary policy flexibility.
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J A M A I C A
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JAMAICA: Inflation Touches One-Year High
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Jamaica Observer reports that consumer prices dipped in the month
of January for the first time in 10 months as the Government's
decision to reduce adult fares for the Jamaica Urban Transit
Company took effect and some agricultural prices eased off
Christmas highs. The dip in prices in January was, however, not
enough to offset inflationary impulses impacting the country over
the last 12 months, according to Jamaica Observer.
Statistical Institute of Jamaica (Statin) said that prices in the
month of January cooled by 0.1 per cent after rising every month
since April, the report notes.
Still, the more keenly watched 12-month gauge for inflation rose
7.4 per cent, the highest since February last year, the report
discloses. It was the third-straight month of annual price
changes, the report notes.
Over the last year, the forces driving inflation have been the cost
of food, rent and transport, the report adds.
About Jamaica
Jamaica is an island country situated in the Caribbean Sea.
Jamaica is an upper-middle income country with an economy heavily
dependent on tourism. Other major sectors of the Jamaican economy
include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, petroleum refining,
financial and insurance services.
In October 2023, Moody's upgraded the Government of Jamaica's
long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to B1 from B2, and
senior unsecured shelf rating to (P)B1 from (P)B2. The outlook has
been changed to positive from stable. The upgrade of Jamaica's
rating to B1 reflects the government's sustained commitment to
fiscal consolidation and debt reduction. The positive outlook
reflects Moody's assessment that a continuation of the favorable
fiscal trajectory will further increase Jamaica's credit
resilience.
S&P Global Ratings raised on September 13, 2023, its long-term
foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Jamaica to
'BB-' from 'B+', and affirmed its short-term foreign and local
currency sovereign credit ratings at 'B'. The stable outlook
reflects S&P's expectation that the government will remain
committed to prudent fiscal policies and reducing debt, as well as
supportive economic policies including a flexible exchange rate
regime and effective monetary policy.
In March 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is
Stable.
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P A R A G U A Y
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PARAGUAY: Fitch Rates 2031 Bonds and 2036 USD Bonds 'BB+'
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Fitch Ratings has assigned a 'BB+' rating to Paraguay's inaugural
PYG3.64 trillion bonds (equivalent to USD500 million) maturing Feb.
9, 2031 and USD500 million bonds maturing Feb. 9, 2036.
The first notes are denominated in Paraguayan Guaranies, pay
principal and interest in U.S. dollars, and carry a coupon of 7.9%.
The U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds have a coupon of 6%.
Proceeds from this issuance are being used as part of a concurrent
liability management operation involving the buyback of existing
bonds, and for general budgetary purposes.
Fitch assigned a 'BB+(EXP)' rating to these bonds on Jan. 30,
2024.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
The bond ratings are in line with Paraguay's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BB+' (including the
Guarani-linked securities, given they are payable in U.S.
dollars).
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- The bond rating would be sensitive to any negative changes in
Paraguay's Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- The bond rating would be sensitive to any positive changes in
Paraguay's Long-Term Foreign Currency IDR.
Date of Relevant Committee
31 October 2023
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Paraguay has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Political Stability
and Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest
weight in Fitch's Sovereign Rating Model (SRM) and are therefore
highly relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high
weight. As Paraguay has a percentile rank below 50 for the
respective Governance Indicator, this has a negative impact on the
credit profile.
Paraguay has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Rule of Law,
Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as
World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's
SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key
rating driver with a high weight. As Paraguay has a percentile rank
below 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a
negative impact on the credit profile.
Paraguay has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the
World Bank Governance Indicators is relevant to the rating and a
rating driver. As Paraguay has a percentile rank below 50 for the
respective Governance Indicator, this has a negative impact on the
credit profile.
Paraguay has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and
is a rating driver for Paraguay, as for all sovereigns. As Paraguay
has a fairly recent restructuring of public debt in 2004, this has
a negative impact on the credit profile.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Paraguay
senior
unsecured LT BB+ New Rating BB+(EXP)
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P U E R T O R I C O
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BOWLING CENTER: Hires Charles A. Cuprill P.S.C. as Counsel
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Bowling Center, Inc. seeks approval from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court
for the District of Puerto Rico to employ Charles A. Cuprill,
P.S.C., Law Offices to handle its Chapter 11 bankruptcy case.
The firm will be paid at these rates:
Charles A. Cuprill-Hernandez, Esq. $350 per hour
Paralegal $85 per hour
The firm received a retainer in the amount of $25,000.
As disclosed in court filings, Charles A. Cuprill, P.S.C. is a
"disinterested person" within the meaning of Section 101(14) of
the
Bankruptcy Code.
The firm can be reached through:
Charles A. Cuprill, Esq.
CHARLES A. CUPRILL, P.S.C., LAW OFFICES
356 Fortaleza Street 2nd Floor
San Juan, PR 00901
Tel: (787) 977-0515
Email: ccuprill@cuprill.com
About Bowling Center, Inc.
Bowling Center, Inc. in Carolina, PR, filed its voluntary petition
for Chapter 11 protection (Bankr. D.P.R. Case No. 24-00215) on
January 25, 2024, listing $3,592,343 in assets and $2,581,376 in
liabilities. Roger Acosta Hernandez as president, signed the
petition.
Charles A. Cuprill, PSC Law Offices serve as the Debtor's legal
counsel.
GAFC SERVICES: Hires Andres Gabriel Gonzalez Orengo as Realtor
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GAFC Services, LLC seeks approval from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court
for the District of Puerto Rico to employ Andres Gabriel Gonzalez
Orengo, a realtor based in Puerto Rico.
The Debtor needs a realtor to assist in the sale of its real
property located at Barrio San Anton, Carolina, P.R.
The realtor will receive a commission of 4 percent of the
property's selling price.
Mr. Gonzalez Orengo disclosed in a court filing that he is a
"disinterested person" as the term is defined in Section 101(14)
of
the Bankruptcy Code.
The realtor can be reached at:
Andres Gabriel Gonzalez Orengo
1407 Ashford Ave.
San Juan, PR 00907
Telephone: (787) 243-3121
Email: andresgonzalezorengo@gmail.com
About GAFC Services
GAFC Services, LLC owns two properties in Puerto Rico valued at
$1.98 million.
GAFC Services filed Chapter 11 petition (Bankr. D.P.R. Case No.
23-02567) on August 18, 2023, with $2,245,501 in assets and
$1,565,422 in liabilities. Juan Carlos Arocha, president, signed
the petition.
Judge Mildred Caban Flores oversees the case.
Jacqueline Hernandez, Esq., at Hernandez Law Offices represents the
Debtor as bankruptcy counsel.
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S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
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