/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/230424.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
L A T I N A M E R I C A
Monday, April 24, 2023, Vol. 24, No. 82
Headlines
A R G E N T I N A
ARGENTINA: Inflation Accelerates More Than Expected to 104%
ARGENTINA: Secures US$500-Million Saudi Investment on Food, Energy
C A Y M A N I S L A N D S
AMOUDI AVIATION: Taps Grant Thorton as Joint Official Liquidators
PROVIDER RE: Taps Crowe Cayman as Joint Official Liquidators
C O L O M B I A
SOCIEDAD CONCESIONARIA: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Rating on Sr. Sec Notes
G U A T E M A L A
BANCO DE LOS TRABAJADORES: Moody's Upgrades Deposit Ratings to Ba2
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Insurance Sector Plays Big Role in GDP
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Oil Production Lowest in a Generation
X X X X X X X X
[*] BOND PRICING: For the Week April 17 to April 21, 2023
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A R G E N T I N A
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ARGENTINA: Inflation Accelerates More Than Expected to 104%
-----------------------------------------------------------
Patrick Gillespie at Bloomberg News reports that inflation jumped
in Argentina more than expected as seasonal factors collided with
the impact of a historic drought and government overspending to
fuel the highest monthly price hikes in two decades.
Inflation accelerated to 7.7 percent in March, more than the median
expectation of seven percent among economists surveyed by
Bloomberg. From a year ago, prices rose 104.3%, the highest annual
level since 1991, according to government data published April 14,
reports Bloomberg News.
The surprise price jump poses new hurdles to the political future
of Economy Minister Sergio Massa, widely seen as a potential
presidential candidate this year within his ruling Peronist
coalition, Bloomberg News relays. A litany of measures, such as
extensive price controls, haven't tamed inflation, Bloomberg News
notes. Late last year, Massa estimated the monthly inflation rate
would be below 4% by April, a nearly impossible task now, Bloomberg
News recalls.
Education and clothing categories led all increases in March, a
month known in Argentina for seasonal price hikes due to the start
of the school year, Bloomberg News notes. The worst drought in
Argentina's history is also driving pressure on food prices in
Argentina, the most weighted category in the country's inflation
index, Bloomberg News relays. Food costs rose 9.3 percent from a
month prior as prices for chicken and eggs surged more than 25
percent due to a breakout of avian flu in Argentina, Bloomberg News
discloses.
The government's cobweb of currency controls and price freezes have
failed to cool inflation or offset the impact of money printing to
finance its spending and lack of a credible economic plan in the
eyes of investors, Bloomberg News notes. Voters in Argentina say
high inflation is their top issue ahead of the presidential vote in
October, Bloomberg News adds.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Alberto Angel Fernandez is
the current president of Argentina after winning the October 2019
general election. He succeeded Mauricio Macri in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
Last March 25, 2022, Argentina finalized agreement with the IMF for
a new USD44 billion Extended Funding Facility (EFF) intended to
fund USD40 billion in looming repayments of the defunct Stand-By
Arrangement (SBA), with an extra USD4 billion in up-front net
financing. This has averted the risk of a default to the IMF
and is facilitating a parallel rescheduling of Paris Club debt.
S&P Global Ratings, on March 29, 2023, lowered its long-term
foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Argentina to 'CCC-'
from 'CCC+'. S&P also affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency
sovereign credit rating and its 'CCC-/C' local currency ratings on
Argentina. The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. S&P
also lowered the transfer and convertibility assessment to 'CCC-'
from 'CCC+'.
The negative outlook on the long-term ratings reflects risks
surrounding pronounced economic imbalances and policy uncertainties
before and after the 2023 national elections. Divisions across the
political spectrum constrain the sovereign's ability to implement
timely changes in economic policy. Global capital markets are
closed to Argentina. In the local market, swaps are being deployed
to manage large maturities before placing debt through traditional
auctions. The central bank continues to play a key role as a
backstop for local debt management in the secondary market. The
ongoing severe drought has exacerbated pressures in the already
disrupted foreign exchange (FX) market.
Fitch Ratings, on the other hand, downgraded Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'C' from 'CCC-', and has affirmed
the Long-Term Local Currency IDR at 'CCC-' on March 24, 2023.
Fitch's downgrade of Argentina's rating to 'C' from 'CCC-' follows
an executive decree that forces domestic public-sector entities
into operations involving their holdings of
sovereign debt securities, which would involve unilateral exchanges
and forced currency conversion that constitute default events under
Fitch's criteria. The 'C' rating reflects Fitch's view that
default
is thus imminent. Fitch said the rating would be downgraded to
'Restricted Default' (RD) upon execution of the exchanges.
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.
ARGENTINA: Secures US$500-Million Saudi Investment on Food, Energy
------------------------------------------------------------------
Patrick Gillespie at Bloomberg News reports that Argentina
announced a US$500-million investment from the Saudi Fund for
Development, securing some rare international financing as the
government seeks to contain an economic crisis.
The state-run Saudi fund is putting money into food and energy
projects in the South American nation, including the Nestor
Kirchner gas pipeline that's expected to be finished this year,
according to an Argentine Economy Ministry statement, which didn't
detail exactly when the funds would arrive, according to Bloomberg
News.
Economy Minister Sergio Massa met with the fund's CEO, Sultan
Abdulrahman Al-Marshad, in Washington on the sidelines of the
International Monetary Fund's spring meetings, Bloomberg News
relays. The outlay comes just two weeks after President Alberto
Fernandez told US President Joe Biden in Washington that he's
seeking to secure a "bridge" of financing to offset losses from a
severe drought, Bloomberg News discloses.
While the Saudi investment isn't enough to be a bridge on its own,
it's a rare instance of foreign backing in Argentina since the
country lost access to international debt markets after it
defaulted on private creditors in 2020, Bloomberg News relays.
Fernandez's government is struggling to contain inflation of over
100 percent as the economy is expected to go into recession this
year, exacerbated by the worst drought on record slashing commodity
exports almost in half, Bloomberg News notes.
About Argentina
Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Alberto Angel Fernandez is
the current president of Argentina after winning the October 2019
general election. He succeeded Mauricio Macri in the position.
Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.
Last March 25, 2022, Argentina finalized agreement with the IMF for
a new USD44 billion Extended Funding Facility (EFF) intended to
fund USD40 billion in looming repayments of the defunct Stand-By
Arrangement (SBA), with an extra USD4 billion in up-front net
financing. This has averted the risk of a default to the IMF
and is facilitating a parallel rescheduling of Paris Club debt.
S&P Global Ratings, on March 29, 2023, lowered its long-term
foreign currency sovereign credit rating on Argentina to 'CCC-'
from 'CCC+'. S&P also affirmed its 'C' short-term foreign currency
sovereign credit rating and its 'CCC-/C' local currency ratings on
Argentina. The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. S&P
also lowered the transfer and convertibility assessment to 'CCC-'
from 'CCC+'.
The negative outlook on the long-term ratings reflects risks
surrounding pronounced economic imbalances and policy uncertainties
before and after the 2023 national elections. Divisions across the
political spectrum constrain the sovereign's ability to implement
timely changes in economic policy. Global capital markets are
closed to Argentina. In the local market, swaps are being deployed
to manage large maturities before placing debt through traditional
auctions. The central bank continues to play a key role as a
backstop for local debt management in the secondary market. The
ongoing severe drought has exacerbated pressures in the already
disrupted foreign exchange (FX) market.
Fitch Ratings, on the other hand, downgraded Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'C' from 'CCC-', and has affirmed
the Long-Term Local Currency IDR at 'CCC-' on March 24, 2023.
Fitch's downgrade of Argentina's rating to 'C' from 'CCC-' follows
an executive decree that forces domestic public-sector entities
into operations involving their holdings of
sovereign debt securities, which would involve unilateral exchanges
and forced currency conversion that constitute default events under
Fitch's criteria. The 'C' rating reflects Fitch's view that
default
is thus imminent. Fitch said the rating would be downgraded to
'Restricted Default' (RD) upon execution of the exchanges.
Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings. The outlook remains stable. The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.
DBRS, Inc. confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating at CCC and downgraded its Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Rating to CCC from CCC (high) on March 3, 2023.
===========================
C A Y M A N I S L A N D S
===========================
AMOUDI AVIATION: Taps Grant Thorton as Joint Official Liquidators
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Amoudi Aviation Limited, which is in liquidation, seeks to hire
Sandipan Bhowmik and Margo MacInnis both of Grant Thornton
Specialist
Services (Cayman) Limited as joint official liquidators of the
company.
The liquidators can be reached at:
Sandipan Bhowmik
Margo MacInnis
Grant Thornton Specialist Services (Cayman) Limited
2nd floor Century Yard, Crocket Square
Grand Cayman, KY1-1102, Cayman Islands
PROVIDER RE: Taps Crowe Cayman as Joint Official Liquidators
------------------------------------------------------------
Provider RE SPC, which is in liquidation, appointed
Graham Robinson and James Parkinson both of Crowe Cayman Limited as
joint official liquidators of the company.
The first meeting of the company's creditors will be held on April
25, 2023,
at 11:00 am by telephone conference.
The liquidators can be reached at:
Graham Robinson
James Parkinson
Crowe Cayman Ltd
94 Solaris Avenue, Camana Bay
PO Box 30851, Grand Cayman KY1-1204
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C O L O M B I A
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SOCIEDAD CONCESIONARIA: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Rating on Sr. Sec Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings affirmed the 'BB+' rating of Sociedad Concesionaria
Operadora Aeroportuaria Internacional, S.A.'s (OPAIN) USD415
million senior secured notes (the notes) and revised the Rating
Outlook to Stable from Negative. OPAIN is the concessionaire of El
Dorado International Airport in Bogota, Colombia.
The rated notes coexist on a pari-passu basis with two Colombian
peso denominated loans, for amounts of COP100 billion and COP315
billion, which mature in October 2025 and December 2028,
respectively.
RATING RATIONALE
The Outlook revision to Stable from Negative reflects Fitch's
alleviated concerns with respect to the pace of traffic recovery,
given 2022 traffic already surpassed pre-pandemic levels. It also
reflects the concession's ability to pay in June 2022 the remaining
deferred concession fees from 2020. Fitch has adjusted its
projections to reflect actual volume performance in 2022, but also
updated macroeconomic assumptions and a higher operational
expenditures (Opex) budget as released by the sponsor, which
resulted in slightly deteriorated average debt service coverage
ratio (DSCR) compared to the prior review. Nevertheless, projected
coverages remain commensurate with the assigned rating.
The rating reflects El Dorado airport as a strategic asset for
Colombia, being the main gateway to the country and the
third-largest airport in Latin America in terms of traffic volume.
The airport has a robust traffic base, comprising mainly origin and
destination (O&D) passengers and has a demonstrated history of
strong traffic performance with relatively low volatility. The
rating also reflects a dual-till rate-setting framework, with an
adjustment mechanism for regulated revenues that tracks local and
U.S. consumer prices indices. The debt is fixed-interest rate and
fully-amortizing with a six-month debt service reserve account
(DSRA) and standard covenant package and structural features.
Under Fitch's rating case, minimum and average DSCR are 1.1x (2025)
and 1.2x (2023-2026), respectively. Credit metrics are consistent
with the assigned rating, according to applicable criteria.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Essential Infrastructure Asset in Colombia [Revenue Risk: Volume -
Stronger]: Located in Bogota's metropolitan area, El Dorado airport
is a critical facility that serves as the country's largest
commercial airport and its international gateway. The airport
benefits from a large O&D base, with traffic volume showing strong
positive growth for the last decade and no meaningful competition
from other airports or forms of transportation. Avianca Holdings
S.A. constitutes roughly 40% of total traffic, however counterparty
risk is relatively mitigated by the airport's strategic and
competitive position within the country and the region.
Dual-Till Rate Setting [Revenue Risk: Price - Midrange]: The
concession contract establishes that regulated revenues, which
comprise the majority of OPAIN's revenues, are adjusted yearly to
track 95% of Colombian or the U.S. CPI, depending on the currency
denomination of the tariff. Extraordinary increases in tariffs may
occur in case either CPI varies by more than 10%, since the last
tariff update. Commercial revenues are not subject to a tariff
adjustment mechanism and are negotiated in private agreements with
each tenant.
Well-Maintained Airport [Infrastructure Development/Renewal -
Stronger]: El Dorado is a modern airport in good condition, with
well-defined maintenance needs, as the concession expires in six
years. The airport ended the construction phase in January 2019,
and no major works are pending, aside from potential complementary
and voluntary works. According to the independent engineer, capex
related to refitting the airport (replacement capex, or repex) is
adequate to cope with the expected expenses associated to the
concession's expiration.
Midrange Structural Features [Debt Structure - Midrange]: Debt
structure comprises the U.S. dollar-denominated senior secured
notes issuance and two non-rated Colombian peso-denominated loans.
The notes are fully amortizing and with a 4.09% fixed-interest
rate. The structure benefits from six-month DSRAs with one offshore
account for the rated debt and one onshore account for the
non-rated facilities. The offshore account shall increase over the
debt term to 12-months debt service if the historical DSCR ended on
or after June 30, 2024 is less than 1.20x.
Other structure features include adequate debt incurrence and a
dividend distribution test at 1.20x, which provides adequate
mitigation for the absence of a cash waterfall. Exposure to foreign
exchange risk is seen as limited as approximately 75% of revenues
are U.S. dollar-denominated, providing a natural hedge against
Colombian peso/U.S. dollar exchange rate variations.
Financial Profile
DSCR is viewed as the relevant metric for the transaction, given
its short maturity and fully-amortizing nature. Minimum and average
DSCRs under Fitch's rating case are 1.1x (2025) and 1.2x
(2023-2026), respectively, consistent with the assigned rating,
according to applicable criteria.
PEER GROUP
El Dorado's closest peer is Mexico City's airport (Grupo
Aeroportuario de la Ciudad de Mexico, GACM), rated 'BBB-' with a
Stable Outlook. GACM and El Dorado are international gateways for
their countries with a sizable O&D market. However, GACM has aged
facilities and significant capacity constraints, while El Dorado is
a modern and well-maintained airport with defined maintenance
needs.
GACM's peak leverage of 9.7x in 2025 is strong for the 'BBB-'
rating, according to Fitch's applicable criteria. Nonetheless, the
standalone credit profile (SCP) is limited given the uncertainty
with respect to the impact of a potential traffic migration to the
new Felipe Angeles International Airport. El Dorado shows an
average DSCR of 1.2x, consistent with the current rating.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:
- Annual traffic growth consistently below 3.0%;
- Increases in operational expenses that result in observed DSCR
below 1.15x;
- Material deterioration of liquidity that jeopardize the project's
ability to pay debt service.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:
- A positive rating action on Colombia's sovereign rating, as long
as the airport's fundamentals support that view.
CREDIT UPDATE
In 2022, total passengers reached 35.5 million, which represented
101% of the levels observed in 2019, while Fitch's base and rating
case assumed 100% and 94% respectively. Domestic traffic showed a
greater resilience than international traffic, with an average
recovery of 104% versus 95% expected by Fitch in its base case.
According to the concessionaire, traffic recovery was benefited in
2022 as a result of the exclusion of VAT charges in price tickets,
the opening of new international routes and entrance of airlines,
as well as an increase in Avianca's capacity factor.
Total revenues were COP1,503 billion (USD353 million), representing
131% of the levels registered in 2019, and exceeded Fitch's rating
case projections by 18%, mainly driven by a higher-than-expected
recovery in international traffic.
Operating expenditures in 2022, excluding the concession fee, were
COP289 billion, in line with Fitch's expectation of COP285 billion,
while capex reached COP13 billion, above its expectation of COP2
billion. In June 2022, Opain completed the payment of the
concession fee corresponding to 1H20 that had been deferred to
2022.
Debt service in 2022 was COP302 billion, higher than projected due
to a higher IBR rate during the year, which increased the interest
payment of Opain's loan. Also, when considering the actual average
COP/USD exchange rate in 2022, debt service of the USD notes,
express in COP, were higher than projected.
As a result of higher revenues and lower expenses, DSCR in 2022
(including deferred concession fees) was 1.6x, above Fitch's rating
case projection of 1.0x.
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Fitch's base case reflects actual performance in 2022 and assumes a
4.5% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2023 to 2026. For
international passengers, the agency assumed a 100% recovery in in
2023 compared with 2019 plus a 5.4% growth; then, a 5.1% CAGR from
2024 to 2026. The budgets for administrative and operating expenses
were stressed by 3%. U.S. CPI reflects Fitch's forecast of 3.7% in
2023, 2.7% in 2024 and 2.0% from 2025 onwards, while Colombia's CPI
forecast is 6.0% in 2023, 3.0% in 2024 and 2.5% from 2023 onward.
Under this scenario, minimum DSCR is 1.2x in 2025 and average
(2023-2026) is 1.3x.
Fitch's rating case assumes a 3.3% CAGR for domestic traffic from
2023 to 2026. For international passengers, the agency assumed a
recovery of 100% in 2023 compared to 2019; then, a 3.8% CAGR from
2024 to 2026. The budgets of administrative, operating and capital
expenses were stressed by 5%. U.S. CPI and Colombia's CPI were
assumed the same as the base case. Under this scenario, minimum
DSCR is 1.1x in 2025 and average (2023-2026) is 1.2x.
SECURITY
The ANI granted OPAIN a 20-year concession to operate and expand El
Dorado International Airport on September 2006. Located in Bogota,
the capital city of Colombia, El Dorado is the third-busiest
airport in Latin America in terms of traffic and the most active in
the region in terms of cargo. It has an estimated catchment area of
10.7 million people and serves all major Colombian cities at 41
domestic routes and major international destinations at 50
international routes across the Americas and Europe.
The concession agreement excludes the runways and air traffic
control, taxiways, administrative buildings, and designated
military, police and government facilities. The airport airfield
consists of two parallel independent runways. In January 2019,
OPAIN ended the construction phase. All the mandatory works have
been carried out including the construction of a new passenger
terminal, new cargo facilities, new office buildings and new
apron.
ESG CONSIDERATIONS
Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Sociedad
Concesionaria
Operadora
Aeroportuaria
Internacional S.A.
Sociedad
Concesionaria
Operadora
Aeroportuaria
Internacional
S.A./Senior
Secured Bond/1 LT LT BB+ Affirmed BB+
=================
G U A T E M A L A
=================
BANCO DE LOS TRABAJADORES: Moody's Upgrades Deposit Ratings to Ba2
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has upgraded to Ba2, from Ba3, the
long-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings assigned to
Banco de los Trabajadores (Bantrab) as well as its baseline credit
assessment (BCA) and adjusted BCA to ba3, from b1. The bank's long-
and short-term counterparty risk ratings of Ba2 and Not Prime, both
in local and foreign currency, as well as the counterparty risk
assessments (CRA) of Ba2(cr) and Not Prime(cr) were affirmed. The
short-term local and foreign currency deposit ratings were also
affirmed at Not Prime. The outlook on the deposit ratings remains
stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrade of Bantrab's BCA to ba3, from b1, acknowledges the
consistent improvement on the bank's capitalization since 2019,
supported by strong profitability metrics stemming from recurrent
earning generation and a high margined business. The ba3 also
reflects Bantrab's sound financial performance and the enhanced
corporate governance practices over the last six years. Focused on
providing unsecured consumer lending to public-sector employees,
the bank has strengthened its anti-money laundering policies,
organizational structure, and compliance policies, reinforcing its
risk management standards, a positive development that supports its
credit profile.
In December 2022, as per Moody's preferred ratio of tangible common
equity to adjusted risk weighted assets, Bantrab's capital position
reached 17.0%, up by 200 basis points in two years, reflecting the
strong capital replenishment capacity and a conservative dividend
policy that has supported its growth strategy, while maintaining
adequate cushioning to absorb unexpected credit or investment
losses.
While asset quality pressures will likely stem from acceleration of
loan growth between 2021 and 2022, when the bank's loan book
increased 24% in 12 months ended in December 2022 (above the 16%
industry average in the period), problem loan ratio declined to
1.7% at the end of 2022 compared with 1.9% one year prior. Despite
inflationary pressures on households' disposable income that strain
on customers' repayment capacity, with Bantrab's loan book
comprised 96% of consumer loans to public employees, the
deterioration in loan delinquencies is mitigated by the bank's
preferential creditor status. This also helps to explain the bank's
relatively low loan loss reserves that accounted for 111% of
problem loans and 1.9% of gross loans as of December 2022, relative
to peers in the country.
Bantrab has maintained good and stable profitability metrics over
the last six years, supported by an ample net interest margin of
8.3% in December 2022 which reflected its pricing power provided by
its dominant position within the consumer finance segment in the
country. The bank's net income to tangible assets ratio increased
to 2.6% in December 2022, from 2.3% in year-end 2021, despite the
higher loan loss provisioning that accounted for 1.7% of gross
loans in 2022, compared to 1.0% in 2021. This increase in cost of
credit was mostly explained by the end of COVID related forbearance
measures at the end of 2022, and the gradual increase in
provisioning expenses to historic levels. Moreover, the increase of
interest rates in Guatemala had also pressured Bantrab's cost of
funding since May 2022, reflecting the high share of term deposits,
which will continue to weigh on its future bottom-line results.
However, the bank has been able to gradually shift resources to
lower-cost sight deposits and savings accounts over time, from term
deposits (down to 63% of total funding in 2022 from 75% in 2018).
The bank maintained ample liquidity buffers (38% of tangible
banking assets as of December 2022) mainly in the form of required
liquidity reserves at the central bank and Guatemalan government
bonds, which Moody's expect to remain stable in 2023.
Bantrab's Ba2 deposit ratings incorporate Moody's assessment of a
moderate probability of support from the Government of Guatemala
(Ba1 stable) to the bank, in case of stress. The support assumption
reflects Bantrab's deposit market share of about 7% in December
2022, and its importance as a retail bank that provides banking
services and credit to public workers in Guatemala. Bantrab's
deposit ratings receive one notch of uplift from its ba3 BCA
stemming from government support.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
An upgrade in Bantrab's standalone BCA would result from a
consistent improvement of the bank's profitability metrics, while
at the same time it is able to sustain good asset quality levels.
The capacity to maintain a robust capital base while posting loan
growth would also result in upward pressure on Bantrab's BCA. The
reestablishment of the bank's correspondent relationships with
foreign banks would provide funding diversification, a positive
driver for the bank's BCA.
Conversely, Bantrab's BCA could be downgraded if asset quality
deteriorates significantly, causing the bank's profitability to
decline and, eventually a reduction in its capital position.
Downward pressure on the bank's long-term ratings could also arise
from the deterioration in the sovereign's credit profile indicating
a lower government capacity to provide support and/or a
deterioration in the operating environment that would lead to a
lower macro profile of Guatemala (Weak+).
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks
Methodology published in July 2021.
=====================================
T R I N I D A D A N D T O B A G O
=====================================
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Insurance Sector Plays Big Role in GDP
---------------------------------------------------------
Andrea Perez-Sobers at Trinidad Express reports that the insurance
industry is important to Tobago's economy, as it contributes four
per cent to its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to Tobago
House of Assembly (THA) Chief Secretary Farley Augustine.
Speaking to the media following the launch of the local chapter of
the General Agents and Managers Association (GAMA) at Hyatt
Regency, Port of Spain, Augustine said the insurance industry's
contribution to the island's GDP is more than agriculture and the
manufacturing sector combined, according to Trinidad Express.
He indicated that the industry employs 81 Tobagonians, out of a
population of 65,000, the report notes.
"That is a significant number for us and we see that as a
worthwhile partner for Tobago's economy. What also has to happen
is a change from the stigma surrounding insurance agencies and
benefit it has for the population on a whole, the report relays.
"We also have to begin to have the insurance industry understand
that they have to play a critical role in risk management not just
in the ordinary sense, but with climate change issues, treating
with potential global economic fallout," he stressed, the report
discloses.
Augustine said the Insurance and Financial sector has to play a
role with regards to these issues and there is a need for dialogue
when it comes to this, the report relays. "With the financial
institutions every year we see them with huge profits, but we
cannot reconcile how it helps moves the average citizen along. So,
we have to have those conversations to ensure that they well
positioned to drive the country's economy along, even as we
diversify from oil and gas," the Chief Secretary said, the report
notes.
At the launch of GAMA Trinidad and Tobago president Amery Rauseo
said the association's presence in this country augurs well for the
industry's future prospects, as it underscores the sector's
progress and promise in the region, the report notes.
Financial Well-Being
"Undoubtedly, we all take great pride in being affiliated with an
esteemed and time-honoured Global Association boasting a membership
of 12,000 worldwide over a period spanning 87 years. As a vital
extension of GAMA Global in the Caribbean, the establishment of
GAMATT marks the second chapter in the region following The
Bahamas. GAMA Global's unwavering commitment to fostering a
conducive environment that promotes the protection and enhancement
of financial well-being for individuals, families, and businesses
alike aligns seamlessly with the economic landscape," Rauseo said,
the report discloses.
He underscored that the launch of GAMA's chapter in Trinidad and
Tobago brings forth a multitude of benefits, such as a heightened
customer experience, bolstering the sector's distribution system,
improving product offerings, and providing education that
integrates technology while also partnering with companies and
regulatory bodies to promote business growth, policy alignment and
prudent financial management, the report discloses.
"As this country holds the distinction of being the Caribbean's
financial capital, the GAMATT chapter's arrival has the potential
to trigger momentous economic and social improvement in our
country, with reverberations felt throughout the region.
Furthermore, by providing access to indispensable tools, unwavering
support, and a robust multi-national network, GAMATT will elevate
and unite the industry, setting new benchmarks and accomplishing
unprecedented feats," Rauseo added.
TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Oil Production Lowest in a Generation
--------------------------------------------------------
Curtis Williams at Trinidad Express reports that Trinidad and
Tobago exported just over 19 million barrels of oil in 2022,
according to figures from the Ministry of Energy and Energy
Industries. But that was a nine-per cent decline from the previous
year.
According to the ministry's consolidated monthly bulletin, T&T
exported 19,661,005 barrels of oil last year; of that, State-owned
Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd was the largest exporter of its
Merlo crude, with the company selling just over one million barrels
of crude a month, for a combined total of 12,394,565 barrels in
2022, Trinidad Express discloses.
The next largest exporter of crude was bpTT, which sold both its
condensate and Perenco's light sweet crude for a combined total of
5,012,772 barrels of oil. BHP, now Woodside Energy, exported
2,253,668 barrels, the report revealed, according to Trinidad
Express.
T&T's total crude exports in 2022 are, however, down by just over
two million barrels when compared to 2021, when the country
exported 21,681,344, the report notes.
The main reason for the fall in exports is the decline in the
production from Heritage Petroleum from 14,064,304 in 2021 to
12,394,565 in 2022, the report relays.
The data also shows that the average daily production fell from
59,850 barrels of oil per day (bo/d) in 2021 to 58,436 bo/d (just
over 1,400 bo/d) in 2022, the report says.
This effectively means that despite the closure of Petrotrin and
the formation of Heritage Petroleum with a focus on crude
production, the country has not been able to stop the decline in
oil output, the report notes.
T&T's average daily production fell to below 100,000 bo/d in 2011
and has never recovered, and its present production remains the
lowest in a generation, the report notes.
The low output also means that Government was unable to benefit
fully from the high oil prices in 2022, as revenue is a reflection
of global prices, tax regime as well as production, the report
relays.
Global prices have been high and Government's fiscal regime
relatively intact, but production remains stymied, the report
adds.
===============
X X X X X X X X
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[*] BOND PRICING: For the Week April 17 to April 21, 2023
---------------------------------------------------------
Issuer Name Cpn Price Maturity Country Curr
----------- --- ----- -------- ------- ---
Noble Holding Internat 6.2 62.2 8/1/2040 KY USD
Provincia del Chaco Ar 9.4 74.8 8/18/2024 AR USD
Provincia de Cordoba 7.1 72.7 8/1/2027 AR USD
Provincia del Chaco Ar 4.0 0.0 12/4/2026 AR USD
Cia Latinoamericana de 9.5 74.3 7/20/2023 AR USD
Argentine Republic Gov 8.3 74.5 12/31/2033 AR USD
Cia Latinoamericana de 9.5 73.9 7/20/2023 AR USD
Sylph Ltd 2.4 65.1 9/25/2036 KY USD
City of Cordoba Argent 7.9 73.1 9/29/2024 AR USD
Argentine Republic Gov 8.3 72.9 12/31/2033 AR USD
Provincia de Rio Negro 7.8 70.3 12/7/2025 AR USD
Province of Santa Fe 6.9 74.7 11/1/2027 AR USD
Provincia de Buenos Ai 7.9 75.3 6/15/2027 AR USD
Argentine Republic Gov 8.3 72.9 12/31/2033 AR USD
Argentine Republic Gov 6.3 74.1 11/9/2047 AR EUR
Province of Santa Fe 6.9 75.2 11/1/2027 AR USD
Metrogas SA/Chile 6.0 41.6 8/1/2024 CL CLP
Province of Santa Fe 6.9 75.2 11/1/2027 AR US
Esval SA 3.5 49.9 2/15/2026 CL CLP
Provincia de Rio Negro 7.8 70.3 12/7/2025 AR USD
Argentine Republic Gov 7.1 75.7 6/28/2117 AR USD
Noble Holding Internat 6.1 62.0 3/1/2041 KY USD
AES Tiete Energia SA 6.8 1.2 4/15/2024 BR BRL
Argentine Republic Gov 8.3 72.9 12/31/2033 AR USD
Fospar S/A 6.5 1.2 5/15/2026 BR BRL
Argentina Bonar Bonds 7.6 74.4 4/18/2037 AR USD
Noble Holding Internat 5.3 60.5 3/15/2042 KY USD
Argentine Republic Gov 0.5 27.6 12/31/2038 AR JPY
Provincia de Rio Negro 7.8 70.4 12/7/2025 AR USD
Argentina Bonar Bonds 5.8 75.2 4/18/2025 AR USD
Argentine Republic Gov 6.9 75.2 1/11/2048 AR USD
Argentine Republic Gov 8.3 74.5 12/31/2033 AR USD
Province of Santa Fe 6.9 74.7 11/1/2027 AR USD
Provincia de Cordoba 7.1 74.7 8/1/2027 AR USD
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
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Chapman, Editors.
Copyright 2023. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746.
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