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       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Wednesday, February 8, 2023, Vol. 24, No. 29

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

ARGENTINA: Bank Approves Higher Denomination 2,000-Peso Bill


B R A Z I L

BRAZIL: President Attacks the Central Bank's Autonomy Again
OI SA: S&P Cuts ICR to 'D' on Judicial Protection From Creditors


D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Economy Cites Sectors Affecting Growth


E C U A D O R

INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: Fitch Affirms B- Rating on $400MM Sec. Notes


E L   S A L V A D O R

EL SALVADOR: Moody's Affirms Caa3 Issuer & Unsecured Debt Ratings


J A M A I C A

JAMAICA: Real Estate Players, Mortgage Firms Brace for Fallout


T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Expect 'Normal' Growth in 2023


X X X X X X X X

LATAM: CEOs Fear Their Organizations Risk Failure if No Transform
LATAM: Governments Urged to Address Regional Transportation Issues

                           - - - - -


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A R G E N T I N A
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ARGENTINA: Bank Approves Higher Denomination 2,000-Peso Bill
------------------------------------------------------------
Buenos Aires Times reports that Argentina's Central Bank has
confirmed it will issue a new 2,000-peso banknote in order to meet
the demands of the financial system amid soaring inflation.

The news comes amid constant complaints from businesses, residents
and tourists who, faced with an annual inflation rate of 95 percent
a year, have to carry increasingly bigger piles of cash to pay for
everyday purchases, according to Buenos Aires Times.  

The new banknote, designed in collaboration with the Mint and
approved by the Central Bank's board of directors, is double the
value of the country's largest denomination, the report notes.

Its design will honor the development of science and medicine in
Argentina with the ANLIS-Instituto Malbran and Doctors Cecilia
Grierson and Ramon Carrillo, both pioneers in the development of
medicine, as the protagonists, the report discloses.

The front of the banknote will portray Grierson and Carrillo with
the building of the Instituto Nacional de Microbiologia Dr. Carlos
G. Malbran on the back, the Central Bank confirmed, the report
discloses.

"While the process of digitising payments advances, this banknote
of a higher value will permit ATMS to function and at the same time
optimise cash flow," read a Central Bank communique, the report
notes.

Officials have been reluctant to print higher-value bank notes for
months, insisting that investment in digital payment platforms was
a better use of resources, the report relays.  The decision to
launch a 2,000-peso bill hints at that hesitancy: Local media had
reported that denominations of as much as 10,000 pesos were being
considered, the report says.

According to Central Bank data, this year kicked off with a record
8.064 billion banknotes in circulation, the report discloses.  Of
this total, 3.0865 billion (38 percent) correspond to banknotes of
1,000 pesos, which last year became those in most circulation in
the country, and 1.346 billion (16 percent) to 500-peso bills, the
report notes.

In the face of this situation, some banks had to build new vaults
and inland warehouses or optimize their space to store the quantity
of excess banknotes, the report relays.

The Central Bank said that it would be pushing the use of
electronic means of payment in transactions with innovative methods
whose development is permitted by the program Transferencia 3.0,
the report notes.

Immediate transfers grew by 98.8 percent in the last month of 2022
as against the previous December while transfers via the
interoperable QR code rose 41.4 percent in the same period, the
report says.

This trend also extended to cheque payments with the participation
of ECHEQ reaching 33.1 percent of transactions and 57.9 percent of
the money involved, the report discloses.

                       About Argentina

Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South
America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Alberto Angel Fernandez is
the current president of Argentina after winning the October 2019
general election. He succeeded Mauricio Macri in the position.

Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America.  The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year
2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its
economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.

Last March 25, 2022, Argentina finalized agreement with the IMF for
a new USD44 billion Extended Funding Facility (EFF) intended to
fund USD40 billion in looming repayments of the defunct Stand-By
Arrangement (SBA), with an extra USD4 billion in up-front net
financing. This has averted the risk of a default to the IMF and is
facilitating a parallel rescheduling of Paris Club debt.

S&P Global Ratings, on Jan. 20, 2023, affirmed its 'CCC+/C' foreign
currency and 'CCC-/C' local currency sovereign credit ratings on
Argentina. The outlook on the long-term ratings remains negative.
S&P's 'CCC+' transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged.
The negative outlook on the long-term ratings reflects risks
surrounding pronounced economic imbalances and policy uncertainties
before and after the 2023 national elections.  Global capital
markets are closed to Argentina.  Moreover, disagreement within the
government coalition and infighting among the opposition constrains
the sovereign's ability to implement timely changes in economic
policy.

Fitch Ratings, on the other hand, downgraded in October 2022
Argentina's Long-Term Foreign-Currency (FC) and Local-Currency (LC)
Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'CCC-' from 'CCC'.  The downgrade
reflects deep macroeconomic imbalances and a highly constrained
external liquidity position, which Fitch expects to increasingly
undermine repayment capacity as foreign-currency debt service ramps
up in the coming years.

Moody's Investors Service, in September 2022, affirmed Argentina's
Ca foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior
unsecured ratings.  The outlook remains stable.  The decision to
affirm the Ca ratings balances Argentina's limited market access,
weak governance, and history of recurrent debt restructurings with
recent efforts to marshal fiscal and monetary measures to start
addressing underlying macroeconomic imbalances in the context of
the IMF program that was approved in 2022, according to Moody's.

DBRS confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Rating
at CCC and Long-Term Local Currency Issuer Rating at CCC (high) on
July 21, 2022.




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B R A Z I L
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BRAZIL: President Attacks the Central Bank's Autonomy Again
-----------------------------------------------------------
Rio Times Online reports that President Lula da Silva once again
attacked the Central Bank's (BC) autonomy and promised "changes"
when the mandate of the current BC president, Roberto Campos Neto,
ends.

Silva also criticized the current level of interest rates,
according to Rio Times Online.

The speeches were made, in an interview with Rede TV,! The report
notes.

"I'm going to wait for this citizen Campos Neto to finish his
mandate so we can make an evaluation," the report relays.

                          About Brazil

Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022
Brazilian general election. He was sworn in on January 1, 2023, as
the 39th president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.

As recently reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin
America, Fitch Ratings, in December 2022, affirmed Brazil's
Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-'
with a Stable Outlook. The ratings are constrained by high
government indebtedness, a rigid fiscal structure, weak economic
growth potential, and a record of governability challenges that
have hampered efforts to address these fiscal and economic issues
and clouded policy predictability. The Stable Outlook reflects
Fitch's expectation that growth will slow in the coming year and
that recent fiscal improvement will erode under a new government,
but within a margin consistent with the current rating, and from a
better starting point than previously expected. Uncertainty is
elevated regarding the plans of the incoming government and the
extent to which these could ease or aggravate fiscal and economic
challenges. However, Fitch does not expect policies that
jeopardize broad economic stability.

Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term
foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Brazil, and
the outlook remains stable (June 2022).  The stable outlook
reflects S&P's base-case assumption that Brazil will maintain its
fiscal anchors over the next two years despite an increasing
interest burden, preventing significant fiscal slippage and
limiting the rise in its already high debt burden.

Moody's credit rating for Brazil was last set at Ba2 in 2018 with
stable outlook.  Moody's affirmed the Ba2 issuer ratings and
senior unsecured bond ratings in April 2022.

DBRS's credit rating for Brazil is BB (low) with stable outlook
(March 2018).


OI SA: S&P Cuts ICR to 'D' on Judicial Protection From Creditors
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its global and national scale issuer
credit ratings on Brazilian telecom company, Oi S.A., to 'D' from
'CCC-' and from 'brCCC-', respectively. At the same time, S&P
lowered its issue-level ratings on Oi's senior unsecured debt to
'D' from 'CCC-' and on its senior secured debt to 'D' from 'CCC'.

S&P also withdrew the '4' recovery rating on the senior unsecured
debt and the '2' recovery rating on the senior secured debt.

On Feb. 3, 2023, the 7th Corporate Court of the state of Rio de
Janeiro granted Oi S.A. an injunction relief, suspending for 30
days the enforceability of all debt obligations, including payments
of interest and principal.

Although the relief doesn't represent a new judicial
reorganization, it can be an initial step toward one.

The 'D' ratings reflect S&P's view that the injunction relief
granted to Oi is similar to a standstill, since it allows the
company not to pay any of its debt obligations in the next 30 days.
Oi's interest payment due on Feb. 5, 2023, totals $82 million,
coupled with other smaller liabilities.

Oi can use the 30-day period to prepare for a new judicial
reorganization. The alternative would be for Oi to reach an
agreement with creditors to restructure its debt, which we would
consider as a de facto default given the company's distressed
financial position.

Oi has been posting subpar credit metrics, with weak cash flows and
EBITDA interest coverage below 1x. In November 2022, the company
hired a financial advisor to assist in negotiation with creditors
to adjust its capital structure, which was still highly leveraged.
The company's request of an injunction relief suggests that
negotiations took longer than expected, prompting Oi to move to
protect its cash position and ordinary operations.




===================================
D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C
===================================

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Economy Cites Sectors Affecting Growth
----------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that the Ministry of Economy, Planning, and
Development (Mepyd) attributed the 5% growth experienced by the
Dominican economy in 2022 to the positive performance of the
industrial sector, services, and tourism by 25.2%.

In the report "Situacion Macroeconomica, Seguimiento de Coyuntura"
December 2022, the institution highlights that "the country's
economic performance in 2022 is a continuous demonstration of
resilience and its capacity to face the uncertainty of the
international environment," according to Dominican Today.

The study indicates that the Dominican Republic's economic growth
of around 5% in 2022 "was driven by the positive behavior of the
industrial and services sectors, particularly in tourism (25.2%),"
the report notes.

The report further highlights that tourism growth was driven by the
arrival of some 6.4 million non-resident passengers between January
to November 2022, equivalent to an inter-annual increase of 50
percent, the report relays.

It adds that as a result of this, more significant foreign exchange
flow, the exchange rate appreciation cycle materialized with an
average rate of RD$55.09 per dollar by the end of 2022 and an
appreciation rate of 3.7% in relation to the average of 2021, the
report adds.

                     About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.

The TCR-LA reported in April 2019 that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

The TCR-LA reported in December 2022, that Fitch Ratings affirmed
Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default
Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a Stable Rating Outlook. Fitch said
Dominican Republic's ratings are supported by a track record of
robust economic growth, a diversified export structure, high
per-capita GDP and social indicators, and governance scores that
compare favorably to peers' after sustained improvement in the past
decade.

Standard & Poor's, in December 2021, revised its outlook on the
Dominican Republic to stable from negative. S&P also affirmed its
'BB-' long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings
and its 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings. The stable outlook
reflects S&P's expectation of continued favorable GDP growth and
policy continuity over the next 12 to 18 months that will likely
stabilize the government's debt burden, despite lack of progress
with broader tax reforms, S&P said.  A rapid economic recovery from
the downturn because of the pandemic should mitigate external and
fiscal risks.

Moody's affirmed the Dominican Republic's long-term issuer and
senior unsecured ratings at Ba3 and maintained the stable outlook
in March 2021.




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E C U A D O R
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INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: Fitch Affirms B- Rating on $400MM Sec. Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the long-term rating assigned to
International Airport Finance S.A.'s USD400 million senior secured
notes at 'B-'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.

The issuance was made in connection with Corporacion Quiport S.A.
(Quiport), the concessionaire of Quito's Mariscal Sucre
International Airport.

RATING RATIONALE

The rating reflects Quiport's strategic but somewhat modest traffic
base, comprising mostly origin and destination (O&D) and
leisure-oriented passenger traffic, a history of moderate
volatility, and some competition from Guayaquil's Jose Joaquin de
Olmedo International Airport, the country's second largest airport.
It also reflects a tariff setting mechanism that allows for
indexation according to increases in U.S. and Ecuadorian consumer
prices. The rated debt is fixed-rate, fully amortizing and includes
additional liquidity in the form of an offshore debt service
reserve account (DSRA) and a stand-by LOC (SLOC), enough to cover
12 months of debt service.

Quiport's rating also reflects the projected financial profile
through 2025 based on Fitch's expectation of traffic recovery
combined with the company's intensive capital improvement program
and the scheduled increase in mandatory principal payments. Under
Fitch's Rating Case, minimum and average (2023-2032) debt service
coverage ratios (DSCR) are 1.0x (2024) and 1.4x, respectively.
Rating case maximum leverage, measured as net debt to cash flow
available for debt service (CFADS) is 5.1x for 2024.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

O&D, Leisure-Oriented Airport [Revenue Risk: Volume - Midrange]:
The airport is located in Quito's metropolitan region, which
accounts for 16% of the country's population (2.8 million people),
and had a smaller enplanement base of 2.5 million departing
passengers (pax) in 2019. The airport's traffic base is mostly O&D
(approximately 99% of total), with leisure-oriented traffic
exceeding business traffic. Traffic volatility is moderate with the
largest historic peak-to-trough of 12.9% occurring between 2014 and
2016, excluding 2020. Carrier concentration in terms of revenue is
low. There is some competition from Ecuador's second largest
airport, Guayaquil's Jose Joaquin de Olmedo International Airport.

Dual Till Regulation [Revenue Risk: Price - Midrange]: Regulated
revenue tariffs are indexed according to inflation in Ecuador and
the U.S., and commercial revenues have no tariff-setting
restrictions.

Modern Infrastructure [Infrastructure Development & Renewal:
Stronger]: The airport is modern and well-maintained and has
relatively detailed short- and long-term expansion plans. Future
expansions are to be funded with internal cash flow generation,
while the associated expenditures are smoothed through a rolling
capex reserve. Any requested changes to the airport's Master Capex
Plan as a result of material deviations to traffic projections must
be approved by the grantor. The Master Capex Plan defines the works
and milestones to be reached, but not specific investment amounts,
which must be estimated by the airport. The debt structure also
includes an offshore capex reserve account or SLBC covering
staggered percentages of the next 18 months of capex needs.

Fully Amortizing Debt Structure with Strong Liquidity [Debt
Structure: Stronger]: The senior secured debt is composed of a
single fixed-rate U.S. dollar-denominated tranche with a fully
amortizing repayment profile. Structural features include an
offshore 12-month DSRA, which limits transfer and convertibility
risk and a capex reserve account. The structure has robust debt
incurrence and dividend distribution tests.

Financial Profile

Under Fitch's rating case, DSCR is projected at 1.3x in 2023, 1.0
in 2024 and 1.1x in 2025. Considering the period between 2023 and
2032, average DSCR is 1.4x. DSCRs are commensurate with a higher
rating according to Fitch's applicable criteria.

PEER GROUP

Quiport's closest peer is ACI Airports SudAmerica, S.A. (ACI;
BB+/Negative), the indirect sponsor of Puerta del Sur S.A., who
holds the concession for Montevideo's Carrasco International
Airport in Uruguay. Both airports are small but represent the main
international gateways to their respective countries. ACI's metrics
until 2024 added to available liquidity are consistent with its
rating while Quiport's ratings are supported by tight metrics
through 2025, consistent with its current rating.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

- Slower than expected traffic recovery below Fitch's rating case
projections or deterioration of the project's liquidity sources;

- A negative rating action on Ecuador's sovereign rating.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

- Clear signals of sustained traffic recovery above Fitch's base
case expectations;

- Actual DSCRs close to 1.1x on a sustained basis;

- A positive rating action on Ecuador's sovereign rating, as long
as project fundamentals support a more optimistic view.

CREDIT UPDATE

Total enplanements in 2022 reached 2.2x million pax, which
represented 87% of 2019 levels. This recovery was well above
Fitch's rating case traffic estimate of a 60% recovery during the
year. Domestic traffic continued showing a greater recovery than
international traffic, with an average recovery of 92% versus 81%,
respectively.

According to Quiport's management, the better domestic traffic
performance is mainly due to a higher capacity offered by Latam and
Avianca, and the entrance of the airline Equair, while
international traffic has increased due to the increased airlines
capacity in South America and Central America.

As of September 2022, operating revenues reached USD103 million and
were above Fitch's rating case expectations of USD76 million, as a
result of a greater recovery in traffic. In the same period,
operating and capital expenditures reached USD31 million and were
below Fitch's estimate of USD38 million.

As a result of higher revenues and lower expenses, DSCR for the
period was 1.4x, above Fitch's rating case expectation of 0.6x for
the year.

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Fitch base case assumed average traffic recoveries for 2023 and
2024 at 97% and 100%, relative to 2019 levels, respectively. From
2025, Fitch assumed a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6%
in the long term. The budgets of operating and capex were stressed
by 3.0%. U.S. inflation was assumed at 3.6% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024
and 2.0% from 2025 onwards, while Ecuador inflation was forecast at
2.8% in 2023, 1.5% in 2024 and 2.0% from 2025 onwards. Under this
scenario, minimum and average DSCR (2023-2032) are 1.3x and 1.5x,
respectively. Net debt to CFADS reaches its highest point in 2024
at 3.9x.

Fitch's rating case assumes average traffic recoveries for 2023 and
2024 of 90% and 95%, respectively, relative to 2019 levels. In
2025, Fitch assumes traffic recovers to 2019 levels, followed by a
CAGR of 3.4% in the long term. U.S. and Ecuador inflation are
assumed the same as the base case, while the budgets of operating
and capex were stressed by 5.0%. Additional management costs of
USD100 million in litigation settlements were considered, amortized
over 10 yearly payments of USD10 million from 2020 onwards, and
also stressed at 5%. Under this scenario, average DSCR between 2023
and 2032 is 1.4x while minimum is 1.0x in 2024, due to deferred
expenditures of the airport's Master Capex Plan. Also, peak net
debt to CFADS is 5.1x in 2024.

The DSRA is currently fully funded and has a balance of USD53
million (USD48 million in SLBC and USD5 million in cash).

SECURITY

Aeropuerto Mariscal Sucre is Ecuador's main airport, with 48% of
the country's offer (6.2 million seats), and acts as its main
international gateway both for passengers and cargo. The airport is
currently operated by Quiport under a 35-year concession agreement;
the airport will be handed back to the Municipality of Quito at the
end of the concession in 2041.

The concession included the administration and maintenance of the
old airport until the end of operations. It also included
development, design, financing and construction of the new airport,
as well as its operation, administration, and maintenance once
completed and until January 2041. Quiport transitioned to the new
airport in 2013, with operations in the old airport ceasing that
same year. The new airport allows more efficient and safer
operations (larger runaway and capacity for larger planes to
operate), adaptable facilities (land available for expansions), and
compliance with all international regulations.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

   Entity/Debt              Rating        Prior
   -----------              ------        -----
International
Airport Finance
S.A.

   International
   Airport Finance
   S.A./Senior
   Secured Notes/1 LT   LT B-  Affirmed     B-




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E L   S A L V A D O R
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EL SALVADOR: Moody's Affirms Caa3 Issuer & Unsecured Debt Ratings
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the ratings on the
Government of El Salvador Caa3 long-term foreign-currency issuer
rating and the Caa3 rating for the government's long-term
foreign-currency senior unsecured debt. Concurrently, Moody's also
changed the outlook to stable from negative.

The outlook change to stable from negative reflects Moody's view of
a decreased risk of a credit event in the near term, following the
distressed exchange in 2022 and the recent repayment of the 2023
international bond. The principal repayment schedule on external
market debt has improved through 2025 and liquidity stress has
eased in line with a narrowing of the fiscal deficit.

The affirmation of the Caa3 rating reflects Moody's view that
persistently high financing needs, a lack of access to
international capital markets, low debt affordability, and the lack
of a credible medium-term fiscal and financing framework will
continue to weigh on creditworthiness.

El Salvador's foreign-currency ceiling remains unchanged at Caa1,
maintaining the existing two-notch gap between the sovereign rating
and the foreign-currency ceiling to reflect the low predictability
of institutions and government policies, weak policy effectiveness
and the government's relatively large share in the country's total
external debt. Moody's do not assign a local currency country
ceiling for El Salvador because the country is fully dollarized.

RATINGS RATIONALE

RATIONALE FOR THE CHANGE IN OUTLOOK TO STABLE FROM NEGATIVE

DECREASED RISK OF A CREDIT EVENT IN THE NEAR TERM

Following the repayment of the sovereign's international bond due
January 24, 2023, El Salvador's principal repayment schedule on
external market debt has improved through 2025, decreasing the risk
of a credit event over the near term. Moody's estimates that the
government's external debt repayments for the remainder of 2023
will represent 1.7% of GDP, and 2.3% of GDP in 2024 and will be
covered by fresh multilateral disbursements.

Multilateral disbursements late in 2022, ahead of the 2023 bond
maturity, helped the government meet the principal payment. Prior
to this, the sovereign conducted two buyback operations in
September and November 2022 that Moody's viewed as a distressed
exchange (a default under Moody's definition), but that reduced the
principal outstanding on its next maturing bond due January 30,
2025 to $348 million (1% of GDP) from an original $800 million.
Despite the sovereign's lack of access to international capital
markets and limited funding alternatives, the remaining principal
amount on the 2025 international bond and repayments to official
creditors remain manageable so long as multilateral disbursements
remain around programmed levels.

Narrower fiscal deficits have also helped to gradually reduce
financing needs and eased liquidity stress. Moody's forecasts that
the 2022 non-financial public sector deficit narrowed to 4% of GDP
from 5.6% in 2021. Official data suggest that government revenues
grew 11.7% in January-November 2022 over the corresponding period
the year before, while government spending grew only 1.6%. Moody's
estimates that 2023 financing needs excluding the recent principal
repayment will be 14.8% of GDP and that given no amortizations due
on external market debt in 2024, financing needs will ease to 13.9%
of GDP, allowing for a further liquidity reprieve.

RATIONALE FOR THE AFFIRMATION OF THE CAA3 RATINGS

The affirmation of the Caa3 rating reflects Moody's view that
still-high financing needs, a lack of access to international
capital markets, low debt affordability, and the lack of a credible
medium-term fiscal and financing framework will continue to weigh
on creditworthiness. Low debt affordability remains a key credit
challenge that limits progress on fiscal consolidation. The ratio
of interest payments-to-revenue reached 17.6% in 2022 and Moody's
forecasts it will remain above 18% through 2025. Moreover,
government authorities have not outlined a medium-term fiscal
framework with details on their financing plans, undermining policy
predictability, as well as Moody's assessment of institutions and
governance strength. In recent years, a deterioration in the
quality of policymaking has decreased the level of policy
predictability and undermined investor confidence, leading to the
loss of international market access. Weak governance is also
reflected by the sovereign's limited capacity to maintain adequate
liquidity that has resulted in an elevated probability of credit
events, aligning El Salvador's credit profile with a Caa3 rating.

Although the authorities have not expressly communicated their
intention to carry out additional buyback operations, Moody's
believes that there is a moderate likelihood that they might
conduct other buybacks similar to the two prior ones in 2022. El
Salvador's global bonds continue to trade at distressed levels,
such that similar operations could constitute a distressed
exchange, a default under Moody's definition, potentially involving
instruments not bought back in the prior operations and resulting
in losses to bondholders. The potential for such actions weighs on
El Salvador's credit prospects despite the improved external debt
repayment schedule and easing of liquidity pressures.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

El Salvador's ESG Credit Impact Score is highly negative (CIS-4),
reflecting moderately negative exposure to environmental risk,
highly negative exposure to social risks, and a very highly
negative governance issuer profile score with limited financial
resilience.

El Salvador's exposure to environmental risks is moderately
negative (E-3 issuer profile score), related to physical climate
change and limited natural capital. El Salvador's geography is
dominated by a region known as the Dry Corridor, characterized by
heavy precipitation events that lead to flooding and landslides and
occasional droughts. The steady rise in the frequency and severity
of droughts and other climate-related shocks poses a threat to the
country's agriculture sector, which employs 16% of the country's
population. Extreme weather events can influence El Salvador's key
credit metrics, such as GDP growth volatility, household incomes
and agricultural export earnings.

Exposure to social risks is highly negative (S-4 issuer profile
score). El Salvador's homicide rate is one of the highest in the
Western Hemisphere and is emblematic of the country's weak domestic
security, a key driver behind the significant emigration of its
residents to the US. While remittances from El Salvadorans living
abroad support about 20%-25% of economic activity, which boosts
consumption, high levels of violence and insecurity stunt the
country's investment levels, productivity and long-term growth
potential.

The influence of governance on El Salvador's credit profile is very
highly negative (G-5 issuer profile score) reflecting its weak
government effectiveness, rule of law and control of corruption. A
deteriorating predictability of institutions and government actions
also undermines the governance issuer profile score.

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 9,668 (2021) (also known as Per
Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): 10.2% (2021) (also known as GDP
Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 6.1% (2021)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -5.6% (2021) (also known as Fiscal
Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: -5.1% (2021) (also known as External
Balance)

External debt/GDP: 70.6% (2021)

Economic resiliency: b2

Default history: At least one default event (on bonds and/or loans)
has been recorded since 1983.

On February 01, 2023, a rating committee was called to discuss the
rating of the El Salvador, Government of. The main points raised
during the discussion were: The issuer's institutions and
governance strength, have materially decreased.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

A significant narrowing of the fiscal deficit or a greatly
decreased reliance on costly short-term debt that supports an
improvement in the sovereign's liquidity situation could lead to an
upgrade. A credible medium-term fiscal framework and financing plan
would provide evidence of increase policy predictability and
support a higher rating.

The re-emergence of liquidity pressures, whether due to a material
widening of the fiscal deficit or a challenging debt maturity
schedule, that increase the likelihood of a credit event or losses
consistent with a Caa3 rating, would lead to a downgrade.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereigns
published in November 2022.



=============
J A M A I C A
=============

JAMAICA: Real Estate Players, Mortgage Firms Brace for Fallout
--------------------------------------------------------------
Jamaica Observer reports that EW mortgages written in 2022 outpaced
prior-year figures but players in the real estate market believe
there will be a slowdown in the number of mortgages disbursed in
2023 as higher interest rates begin to take hold.

Bank of Jamaica data show that up to September 2022, a total of
3,948 new mortgages were written, at an average of 438 per month,
according to Jamaica Observer.  That compares to 4,390 mortgages
which were written for all of 2021, at an average of 365 per month,
the report notes.   The figure for 2022 was 32 per cent higher than
the prior year, the report relays.  At the same time, the average
value of each mortgage was $15.4 million in 2022, down slightly
from $15.43 million in 2021 despite rising costs for materials, the
report notes.

However, Andrew James, a realtor with AS James and Associates and a
former head of the Realtors Association of Jamaica, is expecting
the growth in the number of new mortgages written this year to
slow, the report relays.

"The increase in interest rates are affecting some developers and
purchasers. There have also been delays in completions," he told
the Jamaica Observer in early January, the report discloses.

Pierre Shirley, president of the Realtors Association of Jamaica,
is simultaneously wary of weaker developments in 2023, citing lower
loan approval rates and possible mortgage defaults because of
higher interest rates, the report relays.

"Pre-pandemic, the average processing time of a real estate
transaction with a mortgage company would be between 3-6 months.
Since the pandemic that time line has extended to 6-9 months [for
various reasons] and even beyond," the RAJ head told the Business
Observer.

He argued, "That in itself would lend to a decline in the number of
transactions that would have been completed during the year," the
report says.

However, while Paul Elliot, deputy CEO of the VM Group, stayed
clear of analyzing mortgage processing time at the height of the
pandemic for clues about what the market could look like, he said
the consensus is that mortgage demand will slow this year, the
report relays.

"There is usually a correlation between a dampening of demand in
the market with interest rates rising.  And so at the point at
which we did our projection for this year, on the back of several
interest rate increases by the central bank, we opted for being
cautiously optimistic," he said as he indicated that VMBS has
lowered the forecast for the growth in the number of mortgages it
is expected to write this year, the report discloses.

"Now we could blow through the lowering of our numbers but that is
dependent on a number of factors. But, I actually think there could
be a little bit of slowing down in demand this year," he continued,
the report says.

However Leesa Kow, managing director of JN Bank, was more
optimistic in her outlook, the report relays.

"Mortgage demand continues to grow and we have continued to provide
several pre-approvals as new properties emerge on the market.  The
demand has been sustained amid an increase in housing prices and a
rise in interest rates. We believe this sustained demand is being
driven by the perception that real estate remains a very lucrative
investment that guarantees a very positive return.  Many people are
also genuinely desirous of owning a home and will purchase once
they can afford the payments," she told the Business Observer.

However for Shirley, "The increase in interest rates will affect
affordability for many and therefore [I expect] banks will approve
lower loan amounts in line with the payment the borrowers can
afford, based on their income, or decline applications for loan
amounts that one may have been able to qualify for this time last
year based on their income and interest rates then, compared to the
same income and the current interest rates now," the report
relates.

The realtor said that since mortgage rates are variable, current
mortgage payments are subject to the same increases, with some
borrowers having already been notified by their bank, the report
notes.

"There is a chance of borrowers falling behind in payments, thus
affecting the default rate. Depending on how widespread that is or
becomes, that could have a negative impact on the overall real
estate market," the report relays.

As to defaults, Shirley said: "There is a higher chance of this
happening with investment/rental properties that may be vacant,
such as properties that were bought for the short-term rental
market where the owners may not be getting the rental income that
they may have projected and/or anticipated, or even in long-term
rentals where the owner/borrower is relying on the rental income to
make the mortgage payments but the rental payment is fixed for the
period of the lease and cannot be adjusted simply because the bank
has adjusted the mortgage payment, the report relays.

"The owner/landlord would have to wait until the end of the lease
term, and even then they are restricted to a 7.5 per cent increase
due to the Rent Restriction Act, which may not be an adequate
increase to be in line with the increase in mortgage payments," the
report adds.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in March
2022, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is
Stable.




=====================================
T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O
=====================================

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Expect 'Normal' Growth in 2023
-------------------------------------------------
Andrea Perez-Sobers at Trinidad Express reports that regional
tourism-based economies saw strong economic growth in 2022, which
in some cases surpassed pre-Covid numbers.

So said International Monetary Fund's (IMF) acting director for the
Western Hemisphere Department, Nigel Chalk, according to Trinidad
Express.

Speaking to regional journalists in Barbados virtually, at a
conference hosted by the IMF, Chalk said tourism-dependent
economies, saw a lot of very fast growth coming out of the
pandemic, the report notes.

He noted things are starting to wane as the region gets back to
normal economic growth rates, the report relays.

"Generally the region is doing quite a lot better in tourism, in
many cases the number of tourists visiting are higher than it was
even before the pandemic period and the region is benefiting a lot
from pretty strong growth, particularly from the US and Canada and
to some extent Europe," Chalk explained, the report says.

Asked whether tourism-dependent Caribbean countries should be
optimistic despite the IMF's outlook of a slowdown in global
economic growth, the Chalk said while 2023 is going to be a harder
year for larger countries, their economies will start to bottom out
and grow again, the report relays.

"So I think, particularly for tourism-dependent countries, the US
is growing quite strongly. Consumption in the US is holding up
quite well, even though inflation is high and real incomes have
been going down to some extent, the report discloses.

"I think that resilience of the US economy is good for the region.
Europe is looking a little less positive, particularly the UK where
we're seeing a contraction this year.  But I think once we get
through this year, we should start seeing a return to more normal
growth rates and lower inflation," Chalk remarked, the report
relates.

In terms of the cushion available to smaller states to offset any
negative impact from recessions in larger economies, he said it is
really hard for some smaller countries to prepare for a big shock
to the global economy, the report relays.

"Building buffers, having responsible policies, not having very
high fiscal deficit and having a flexible exchange rate has its
benefits. In some cases, these have been very good for the region
and I would point, for example, to the case of Jamaica.  That
country had fund programs from 2013 to 2019.  Those programs
brought down its debt, they brought down their physical deficits
and built international reserves and they moved to a system where
they have a much more flexible exchange rate," said Chalk, the
report relays.

                           Challenges

Questioned about what challenges the English-speaking Caribbean
countries are encountering and how they can be mitigated, Chalk
said individually, these countries are relatively small, and there
are fewer economies of scale than one would see in some larger
countries, the report discloses.

"The pandemic also showed us that being very dependent on one
industry, particularly tourism, can leave you very exposed when you
get hit by an external shock. "So I think these two things go
together and having a more diversified structure of your economy
will help in the long run," the report notes.

Turning to the Latin American countries, Chalk pointed out it would
be a difficult year for them, the report relays.

"We've gone from a growth rate that was around 7 per cent to 4 per
cent last year and this year will hit below 2 per cent. That means
less job growth, less and less employment. Latin America is still
suffering from quite high inflation," Chalk highlighted, the report
says.




===============
X X X X X X X X
===============

LATAM: CEOs Fear Their Organizations Risk Failure if No Transform
-----------------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that thirty per cent of Caribbean CEOs think their
organizations will not be economically viable in a decade if they
do not transform.

Inflation, macroeconomic volatility, and climate change rank as the
top global threats, as cyber and health risks fall from the 2021
Caribbean CEO Survey, according to RJR News.

The PwC survey also found that Caribbean CEOs are cutting costs,
yet 66% do not plan to reduce headcount, and 84 per cent don't plan
to reduce compensation in the fight to retain talent following the
'Great Resignation,' the report notes.

In addition, Caribbean CEOs see climate risk impacting their cost
profiles and supply chains over the next 12 months; but only 38 per
cent are developing a strategy for reducing emissions and
mitigating climate risks, the report adds.


LATAM: Governments Urged to Address Regional Transportation Issues
------------------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that regional governments are being urged to
address the Caribbean's transportation issues.

President of the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), Dr. Gene Leon,
says trade and commerce have been seriously hampered by the absence
of airlift in some areas, according to RJR News.

He noted that intra-regional transport declined by as much as 50
per cent between 2008 and 2018, the report notes.

In the Eastern Caribbean, he said the situation is at crisis level,
as the demise of LIAT in 2020 meant a loss of airlift from an
average of 500 weekly flights in 2019 to 50 flights in 2022, the
report relays.

Dr. Leon stressed that dependable and cost-effective air transport
services are essential for the transformation of several of the
region's economies, the report notes.

He said governments must consider legislation and other "decisive
and integrated action" to address factors that contribute to the
high cost of travel as well as other factors that hinder the
seamless movement of people within the region, the report says.

He also suggested rationalising the regulatory environment and
promoting cooperation among regional airlines to "reduce wasteful
competition" and improve inter-airline connectivity, the report
adds.



                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.

Copyright 2023.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2746.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.

Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

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delivered via e-mail.  Additional e-mail subscriptions for members
of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each.  For subscription information,
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.


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