---

       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Thursday, January 12, 2023, Vol. 24, No. 10

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

ARGENTINA: Analysts Forecast 98.4% Inflation in 2023


B R A Z I L

BRASILSEG: After Crop Failure Plans, Firm to Dilute Reinsurance


C A Y M A N   I S L A N D S

TRANSOCEAN TITAN: S&P Rates New $500MM Senior Secured Notes 'B-'


C O L O M B I A

ECOPETROL SA: S&P Rates New $2BB Senior Unsecured Notes 'BB+'


M E X I C O

GRUPO KALTEX: S&P Withdraws 'D' Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating
MEXICANA AIRLINE: Mexico Inks Deal to Buy Brand for $42 Million


T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Oil Benchmark Climbs 7% in 2022


X X X X X X X X

LATAM: Will Face Economic Challenges in 2023

                           - - - - -


=================
A R G E N T I N A
=================

ARGENTINA: Analysts Forecast 98.4% Inflation in 2023
----------------------------------------------------
Juan Martinez at Rio Times Online reports that private analysts
consulted by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) estimated that
inflation in the South American country will reach 98.4 percent
interannual for this 2023, above the level projected for 2022, the
monetary authority informed last week.

The data comes from a new Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado
(REM) released by the entity, in which 25 consulting firms and
local and international research centers, and 13 financial entities
in Argentina participated, according to Rio Times Online.

Analysts estimated that inflation in the South American country
last year was 95.5 percent year-on-year, while for 2024, a
deceleration of price increases is expected with a projection of 75
percent year-on-year, the report notes.

Those consulted by the BCRA expect Argentina's Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) to grow 0.5 percent in 2023, with a better
performance of the domestic economy for 2024, when the growth of
1.4 percent is expected, the report relays.

Regarding the official exchange rate, analysts predicted it would
reach 328.32 pesos per dollar by the end of the year, with a
year-on-year variation of close to 89.9 percent, the report
discloses.

On the other hand, they predicted that the country’s total
exports would be around 84.73 billion dollars with a 5.4 percent
drop in foreign shipments, while imports would reach 78.619 billion
dollars with a 4.6 percent decrease, the report notes.

Finally, analysts forecast an unemployment rate of 7.5 percent of
Argentina's economically active population at the end of 2023, the
report adds.

                     About Argentina

Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Alberto Angel
Fernandez is the current president of Argentina after winning
the October 2019 general election. He succeeded Mauricio
Macri in the position.

Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America.  The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however,
its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.

Last March 25, 2022, Argentina finalized agreement with the IMF
for a new USD44 billion Extended Funding Facility (EFF) intended
to fund USD40 billion in looming repayments of the defunct
Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), with an extra USD4 billion in up-front
net financing. This has averted the risk of a default to the IMF
and is facilitating a parallel rescheduling of Paris Club debt.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on
Jan. 11, 2023,  S&P Global Ratings raised on Jan. 9, 2023, its
local
currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'CCC-/C' from
'SD/SD' and its national scale rating to 'raCCC+' from 'SD'. S&P
also
affirmed its 'CCC+/C' foreign currency sovereign credit ratings
on Argentina. The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative.
S&P's 'CCC+' transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged.
None of its rated bond issues are affected. The negative outlook
on the long-term ratings reflects risks surrounding pronounced
economic imbalances and policy uncertainties before and after
the 2023 national elections. Global capital markets are closed to
Argentina. Moreover, disagreement within the government coalition,

and infighting among the opposition, constrains the sovereign's
ability to implement timely changes in economic policy.

Last April 14, 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'CCC'.
Fitch said Argentina's 'CCC' ratings reflect weak external
liquidity and pronounced macroeconomic imbalances that undermine
debt repayment capacity, and uncertainty regarding how much
progress can be made on these issues under a new IMF program.
On July 19, 2022, Fitch Ratings placed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and Long-Term Local
Currency IDR Under Criteria Observation (UCO) following the
conversion of the agency's Exposure Draft: Sovereign Rating
Criteria to final criteria. The UCO assignment indicates that
ratings may change as a direct result of the final criteria. It
does not indicate a change in the underlying credit profile, nor
does it affect existing Rating Outlooks.

Moody's credit rating for Argentina was last set at Ca on
Sept. 28, 2020.

DBRS has also confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency
Issuer Rating at CCC and Long-Term Local Currency Issuer Rating at
CCC (high) on July 21, 2022.



===========
B R A Z I L
===========

BRASILSEG: After Crop Failure Plans, Firm to Dilute Reinsurance
---------------------------------------------------------------
Rio Times Online reports that Brazilian company Brasilseg is
planning to share the risk of its agribusiness policies with more
reinsurers to minimize the global spike in prices in the sector, in
the wake of climate setbacks, including the drought that broke
crops in the south of the country in 2022.

According to the company's president, Rogerio Idino, there is a
large volume of contracts in the rural segment expiring in March,
the report notes.



===========================
C A Y M A N   I S L A N D S
===========================

TRANSOCEAN TITAN: S&P Rates New $500MM Senior Secured Notes 'B-'
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'B-' issue-level rating and '1'
recovery rating to Transocean Titan Financing Ltd.'s (Cayman
Islands-based subsidiary of offshore drilling contractor
Transocean
Ltd.) proposed $500 million senior secured notes due 2028. The '1'
recovery rating indicates S&P's expectation for very high
(90%-100%; rounded estimate: 95%) recovery to creditors in the
event of a payment default. The notes are secured by the eighth
generation ultra-deepwater drillship Deepwater Titan, which was
delivered to the company in December 2022. The rig is under a
five-year contract with Chevron through the second quarter of 2028
at a day rate of $455,000. The notes are fully and unconditionally
guaranteed by parent companies Transocean Inc., Transocean Ltd.,
and the collateral rig-owning subsidiary.

S&P said, "We expect the company to use the proceeds from these
notes primarily to replenish its liquidity after making its final
milestone payment to the shipyard for the construction of the
Deepwater Titan and additional related costs.

"At the same time, we affirmed our 'B-' issue-level rating on
Transocean's existing secured debt (including its secured credit
facility), our 'CCC+' issue-level rating on its super priority
unsecured senior notes with subsidiary guarantees, and our 'CCC+'
issue-level rating on its priority unsecured senior notes with
subsidiary guarantees. We also affirmed the 'CCC' issue-level
rating on its unsecured debt without guarantees and its unsecured
debt issued by Global Marine, and revised our recovery rating to
'4' from '3'. Our 'CCC' issuer credit rating on Transocean Ltd. is
unchanged."

ISSUE RATINGS--RECOVERY ANALYSIS

Key analytical factors

-- S&P estimates that for the company to default it would require
sustained minimal demand for offshore contract drilling services.
This would likely occur due to sustained low oil prices or a
permanent shift toward onshore resources and away from offshore
resources.

-- S&P values Transocean on a discrete asset value basis based on
its net book value and its estimated appraisal values for the
company's fleet.

S&P said, "We apply a 5% annual dilution rate and between 25%-75%
realization factor to the estimated $17 billion in gross asset
value. We also apply about 50% shrinkage to the company's accounts
receivable, materials, and supplies, and 100% shrinkage to cash.

"We base our recovery analysis on a net enterprise value (net of 7%
administrative expenses) of about $7.8 billion. In our hypothetical
default scenario, where the offshore drilling market does not
recover sufficiently and the company needs to pursue other
alternatives, we believe Transocean's creditors would realize
greater value through reorganization rather than liquidation of its
assets.

"Our analysis assumes Transocean's secured credit facility has a
first-priority security interest in the following rigs: Deepwater
Asgard, Deepwater Invictus, Deepwater Skyros, Dhirubhai Deepwater
KG2, Discoverer Inspiration, Deepwater Orion, Deepwater Mykonos,
Deepwater Corcovado, and Development Driller III UDW, Transocean
Barents, and Transocean Spitsbergen. We also assume its secured
notes have a first-priority security interest in the rigs
Deepwater
Proteus, Deepwater Thalassa, Deepwater Pontus, Deepwater Poseidon,
and Deepwater Titan drillships, Transocean Encourage, Transocean
Enabler, Transocean Endurance, and Transocean Equinox harsh
environment rigs. Parents Transocean Inc. and Transocean Ltd.
guarantee each secured note.

"We also assume the company's 11.5% notes with subsidiary
guarantees, 2.5% exchangeable notes due in 2027, and 4.0% notes
due
2025 have structural priority over all existing unsecured notes
(with and without subsidiary guarantees)."
Simulated default assumptions

-- Simulated year of default: 2024

-- Jurisdiction (Rank A): Although Transocean Ltd. is
headquartered in Switzerland, S&P believes it would most likely
file for bankruptcy protection in the U.S. or restructure under
the
U.S. bankruptcy code given its nexus in the country.

-- S&P assumes Transocean's current $774 million revolving credit
facility is 60% utilized with total outstanding borrowings at the
time of its hypothetical default of about $475 million.

Simplified waterfall

Secured debt recovery:

-- Net enterprise value*: $7.8 billion

-- Revolver and secured note debt outstanding: $4.0 billion

    --Recovery expectations: 90%-100% (rounded estimate: 95%)

Super priority unsecured senior notes with subsidiary guarantees:

-- Net recovery value: $3.8 billion

-- Priority unsecured senior debt outstanding at hypothetical
default: $1.3 billion

    --Recovery expectations: capped 70%-90% (rounded estimate:
85%)

Priority unsecured senior notes with subsidiary guarantees:

-- Net recovery value: $2.6 billion

-- Unsecured senior debt outstanding at hypothetical default: $1.9
billion

    --Recovery expectations: capped 70%-90% (rounded estimate:
85%)

Residual value available: $0.6 billion

-- Unsecured non-guaranteed debt outstanding at default: $1.6
billion

    --Recovery expectations: 30%-50% (rounded estimate: 40%)

Global Marine senior notes:

-- Net recovery value from Global Marine: $26.1 million

-- Recovery from Transocean Inc. guarantee: $94 million

-- Global Marine unsecured debt outstanding: $261 million

    --Recovery expectations: 50%-70% (rounded estimate: 45%)

Note: Assumes six months of accrued and unpaid interest on funded
debt and any scheduled amortization is paid to the default year.

  Ratings List

  TRANSOCEAN LTD.

  Issuer Credit
Rating     CCC/Negative/--   CCC/Negative/--

  NEW RATING  
                                  TO          FROM

  TRANSOCEAN TITAN FINANCING LTD.

  Senior Secured

   US$500 mil sr notes due 2028   B-

    Recovery Rating               1(95%)

  RATINGS AFFIRMED; RECOVERY EXPECTATIONS REVISED  

  GLOBAL MARINE INC.

   Senior
Unsecured               CCC          CCC

    Recovery
Rating               4(45%)       3(65%)

  TRANSOCEAN INC.

   Senior
Unsecured               CCC          CCC

    Recovery
Rating               4(40%)       3(65%)

  ISSUE-LEVEL RATINGS AFFIRMED  

  TRANSOCEAN INC.

   Senior
Unsecured               CCC+         CCC+

    Recovery
Rating               2(85%)       2(85%)

  TRANSOCEAN GUARDIAN LTD.
  TRANSOCEAN INC.
  TRANSOCEAN PHOENIX 2 LTD.
  TRANSOCEAN PONTUS LTD.
  TRANSOCEAN POSEIDON LTD.
  TRANSOCEAN PROTEUS LTD.
  TRANSOCEAN SENTRY LTD.

   Senior
Secured                 B-           B-

    Recovery
Rating               1(95%)       1(95%)



===============
C O L O M B I A
===============

ECOPETROL SA: S&P Rates New $2BB Senior Unsecured Notes 'BB+'
-------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BB+' issue-level rating to
Ecopetrol S.A.'s (BB+/Stable/--) proposed $2 billion senior
unsecured notes due 2033. The notes will rank pari passu with all
of Ecopetrol's other present and future senior, unsecured, and
unsubordinated obligations.

S&P views the transaction as debt neutral because Ecopetrol will
use the proceeds for general corporate purposes, including
refinancing debt obligations. S&P forecasts the company to maintain
an adjusted debt-to-EBITDAX ratio below 2x in the next 12-18
months.




===========
M E X I C O
===========

GRUPO KALTEX: S&P Withdraws 'D' Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating
--------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings withdrew all ratings on Grupo Kaltex S.A. de
C.V., including the 'D' long-term global scale issuer credit and
issue-level ratings and the recovery rating of '3', at the issuer's
request.

Although the company recently completed its debt restructuring on
its 2022 senior secured notes, S&P is withdrawing the ratings at
'D' because of the lack of information on the debt restructure.


MEXICANA AIRLINE: Mexico Inks Deal to Buy Brand for $42 Million
---------------------------------------------------------------
Kylie Madry at Reuters, citing union a spokesman, reports that the
Mexican government signed a deal with several aviation unions to
purchase the brand of the defunct Mexicana airline for MXN811.1
million ($42.41 million).

The deal includes rights to use the airline's brand and the
purchase of two buildings, a technical training center and a flight
simulator, pilots' union spokesman Jose Alonso said in an
interview, according to Reuters.  A time-frame for the payment has
yet to be agreed upon, he added.

Mexico's transportation ministry did not immediately respond to a
request for comment.

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has said the
government intends to use Mexicana to launch a military-run
commercial airline, the report notes.

In December, Lopez Obrador said the airline was set to launch
operations in 2023, the report relays.  The government is also in
talks with Boeing on renting aircraft, he said, the report
discloses.

The government will lift any legal actions in place against
Mexicana, which was declared bankrupt in 2014, Alonso said, the
report relays.

Founded in 1921, Mexicana had been among the world's oldest
airlines.

The payment will be divided between pilots' union ASPA, flight
attendants' union ASSA, ex-aviation workers' union AJTEAM and
transportation workers' union SNTTTASS proportionally by a
percentage of what was owed when Mexicana shuttered, Alonso said,
the report discloses.

Though the payment is a small fraction of what was owed to workers,
Alonso said, "it's a little bit of justice after 12 years," the
report relays.

The deal was reached between Mexico's transportation ministry and
the unions with supervision from the labor ministry, Alonso added.

A military-run business, Olmeca-Maya-Mexica, will take over the
company, Lopez Obrador has previously said, the report notes.

The push to operate the military carrier comes as Lopez Obrador has
expressed his discontent with the country's airlines, the report
adds.



=====================================
T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O
=====================================

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO: Oil Benchmark Climbs 7% in 2022
--------------------------------------------------
Trinidad Express reports that oil prices swung wildly in 2022,
climbing on tight supplies amid the war in Ukraine, then sliding on
weaker demand from top importer China and worries of an economic
contraction, but closed the year with a second straight annual
gain.

Prices surged in March as Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended
global crude flows, with international benchmark Brent reaching
US$139.13 a barrel, highest since 2008, according to Trinidad
Express.  Prices cooled rapidly in the second half as central banks
hiked interest rates and fanned worries of recession, the report
notes.

"This has been an extraordinary year for commodity markets, with
supply risks leading to increased volatility and elevated prices,"
said ING analyst Ewa Manthey, the report relays.  "Next year is set
to be another year of uncertainty, with plenty of volatility," she
said, the report notes.

According to Trinidad Express, for the year 2022, Brent gained
about ten per cent, after jumping 50 per cent in 2021. US crude
rose nearly seven per cent in 2022, following last year's gain of
55 per cent, the report relays.  Both benchmarks fell sharply in
2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic slashed fuel demand, the report
notes.

Investors in 2023 are expected to keep taking a cautious approach,
wary of interest rate hikes and possible recessions, the report
discloses.

"The demand and demand growth is going to be a real question
because of the heavy-handed actions by the global central banks and
the slowdown that they're trying to engineer," said John Kilduff,
partner at Again Capital LLC in New York, the report relays.

A survey of 30 economists and analysts forecast Brent would average
US$89.37 a barrel in 2023, about 4.6 per cent lower than the
consensus in a November survey, the report discloses.  US crude is
projected to average US$84.84 per barrel in 2023, down from the
prior view, the report says.

While a jump in year-end holiday travel and Russia's ban on crude
and oil product sales has supported crude, tighter supply will be
offset next year by declining fuel consumption due to a
deteriorating economic environment, said CMC Markets analyst Leon
Li, the report notes.

Oil's decline in the second half of 2022 as rising interest rates
to fight inflation boosted the US dollar, the report relays.  That
made dollar-denominated commodities like crude more costly for
holders of other currencies, the report notes.

China's zero-Covid restrictions, which were eased only this month,
had squashed demand recovery hopes, the report relays. The world's
top oil importer and second-biggest consumer in 2022 posted its
first drop in oil demand for years, adds the report.

While China's oil demand is expected to recover in 2023, a recent
surge in Covid-19 cases has dimmed hopes of an immediate boost in
barrel buying, the report discloses.

In an indicator of future supply, the US oil and gas rig count rose
33 per cent for the year, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in
its latest report, the report adds.



===============
X X X X X X X X
===============

LATAM: Will Face Economic Challenges in 2023
--------------------------------------------
Rio Times Online reports that Latin America is usually a region
that is highly dependent on economic cycles, given the high degree
of primarization of its economy.

That is why, very possibly, the slowdown in economic growth that is
expected for 2023 could have a negative impact on this part of the
world, according to Rio Times Online.

To make matters worse, it is not that the countries are exempt from
challenges: to historical problems in the region, such as the
reduction of poverty, in 2022 the fight against inflation was
added, the report notes.

On the other hand, in some Latin American countries the political
climate is somewhat convulsed, the report adds.


                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.

Copyright 2023.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2746.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.

Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year,
delivered via e-mail.  Additional e-mail subscriptions for members
of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each.  For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
.


                  * * * End of Transmission * * *