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                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Friday, January 6, 2023, Vol. 24, No. 6

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

ARGENTINA: Vaca Muerta Shale Boom Running Out of Road


J A M A I C A

JAMAICA: Business Leaders Bemoan Shortage of Skilled Labor
[*] JAMAICA: Industry's Q3 2022  Performance Improves


V E N E Z U E L A

VENEZUELA: Nine-Cent Bonds Lure Distressed-Debt Veteran


X X X X X X X X

CARIBBEAN: Headwinds Facing Post-Pandemic Recovery
LATAM: Job Recovery in the Region Attained in 2022

                           - - - - -


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A R G E N T I N A
=================

ARGENTINA: Vaca Muerta Shale Boom Running Out of Road
-----------------------------------------------------
Reuters reports that Argentina's booming shale production in Vaca
Muerta, a formation that rivals the U.S.'s Permian Basin, is at
risk of running out of road as infrastructure to handle the oil and
gas nears capacity, threatening to put the brakes on rapid growth.


The government is now racing to build out infrastructure: A major
new gas pipeline is set to come online mid this year, and there are
plans for new export terminals near Buenos Aires, according to the
report.

The government is also working on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) law
to send to Congress hoping to stimulate investment, the report
relates.

How the government fares is key to Vaca Muerta's future after years
of stop-start development, the report relays.

The formation, in Argentina's Patagonian south, is the size of
Belgium, the report notes.

It holds the world's second-largest shale gas reserves and the
fourth-largest shale oil deposits, the report discloses.

It could become a key global supplier of gas as the world looks for
alternatives to Russia, whose energy industry has been heavily
sanctioned over its invasion of Ukraine, the report relays.

But industry data reviewed by Reuters, interviews with a dozen
executives, local and national officials and Vaca Muerta residents,
reveal how bottlenecks - from pipelines operating at capacity to a
lack of fracking equipment and utilities - threaten to hold up the
country's plans, the report says.

"The current gas pipelines are very full," said Pablo Trovarelli,
head of midstream operations at a gas treatment plant run by
Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS) in Vaca Muerta, adding that new
pipelines were needed to raise production, the report adds.

                     About Argentina

Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Alberto Angel
Fernandez is the current president of Argentina after winning
the October 2019 general election. He succeeded Mauricio
Macri in the position.

Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America.  The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however,
its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.

Last March 25, 2022, Argentina finalized agreement with the IMF
for a new USD44 billion Extended Funding Facility (EFF) intended
to fund USD40 billion in looming repayments of the defunct
Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), with an extra USD4 billion in up-front
net financing. This has averted the risk of a default to the IMF
and is facilitating a parallel rescheduling of Paris Club debt.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on
Nov. 18, 2022, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'CCC+/C' foreign
currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina. S&P lowered the
long-term local currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC-' from
'CCC+' and the national scale rating to 'raCCC+' from 'raBBB-'.
S&P also affirmed its 'C' short-term local currency rating.
The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. S&P's 'CCC+'
transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged.

Last April 14, 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'CCC'.
Fitch said Argentina's 'CCC' ratings reflect weak external
liquidity and pronounced macroeconomic imbalances that undermine
debt repayment capacity, and uncertainty regarding how much
progress can be made on these issues under a new IMF program.
On July 19, 2022, Fitch Ratings placed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and Long-Term Local
Currency IDR Under Criteria Observation (UCO) following the
conversion of the agency's Exposure Draft: Sovereign Rating
Criteria to final criteria. The UCO assignment indicates that
ratings may change as a direct result of the final criteria. It
does not indicate a change in the underlying credit profile, nor
does it affect existing Rating Outlooks.

Moody's credit rating for Argentina was last set at Ca on
Sept. 28, 2020.

DBRS has also confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency
Issuer Rating at CCC and Long-Term Local Currency Issuer Rating at
CCC (high) on July 21, 2022.



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J A M A I C A
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JAMAICA: Business Leaders Bemoan Shortage of Skilled Labor
----------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that while business leaders have expressed
optimism about 2023, there are concerns about what they describe as
a shortage of adequate labor.

President of the Jamaica Manufacturers and Exporters Association
John Mahfood is warning if the issue is not addressed soon, Jamaica
could miss out on growth opportunities, according to RJR News.

He pointed to the robust growth in hotel rooms, which will require
more workers, when, according to him, it is already difficult to
meet the employment requirements of the existing operations, the
report notes.

In that regard, Metry Seaga, President of the Private Sector
Organization of Jamaica, is in no doubt about one solution, the
report discloses.  It is time to look for talent outside of
Jamaica, he has asserted, the report relays.

Mr. Seaga has expressed great disappointment with the performance
of the national training agency, HEART, arguing that it is failing
in its mandate to produce skilled workers for various areas of
economic activity, the report notes.

Until that can be adequately addressed, he argued, the country
might have no option but to import skilled labour to meet its
manpower needs, the report discloses.

Mr. Mahfood and Mr. Seaga were both guests on the latest episode of
the JNN/Financial Gleaner Business Forum - The Exchange, the report
adds.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in March
2022, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is
Stable.

[*] JAMAICA: Industry's Q3 2022  Performance Improves
-----------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that the performance of the Agriculture, Forestry
& Fishing industry improved over the third quarter ended
September.

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica says gross domestic product
for the sector grew by 17 per cent over the third quarter in 2021,
according to RJR News.

The improvement was due to 17 per cent growth in the sub-industry
Other Agricultural Crops, the report relays.

Traditional Export Crops also increased 16 per cent, the report
notes.

Within the Other Agricultural Crops sub-industry, vegetables and
root crops were the main contributors to growth, increasing by 18.6
per cent for vegetables and 15.9 per cent for root crops, the
report relays.

There was also an 11.6 per cent rise in the total area of
vegetables harvested, indicating an improvement in vegetable
production, the report discloses.

Growth was recorded for the group animal farming, largely
influenced by an increase in broiler production and the rearing of
pigs and cattle, the report notes.

The growth in broiler production was mainly attributed to a rise in
demand as the economy continues to recover, the report adds.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in March
2022, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is
Stable.



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V E N E Z U E L A
=================

VENEZUELA: Nine-Cent Bonds Lure Distressed-Debt Veteran
-------------------------------------------------------
Nicolle Yapur at Bloomberg News reports that a European
distressed-debt trader is raising money to buy defaulted Venezuelan
bonds trading below 10 cents on the dollar amid signs of easing
tensions between President Nicolas Maduro, the political opposition
and the United States.

Claudio Zampa, the Switzerland-based founder and manager of Mangart
Capital Management Ltd., said his Phoenix Recovery Fund has seen
more interest and investment pledges since Venezuelan politicians
struck an agreement last month to restart talks aimed at setting
conditions for 2024 presidential elections, according to Bloomberg
News.  That led the US to ease some restrictions on Chevron Corp to
allow the oil producer to expand its operations in Venezuela, the
report notes.

"We are at the start of a normalization process that will
eventually lead to a debt restructuring," Zampa, whose Phoenix fund
is independent from Mangart, said in an interview, the report
relays. "Recovery values are much higher than current prices," he
added.

Zampa, who has been involved in restructurings in Argentina and
Mozambique, says that Venezuela bonds could eventually be worth 50
cents, the report notes.  He's making a long-term bet on the
country, wagering it will have to restructure one of the world's
largest piles of defaulted debt at favorable terms, the report
discloses.

Bondholders have been in the dark since payments were halted on
some US$60 billion of debt issued by the government and state oil
producer PDVSA in late 2017, the report relays.  US sanctions
imposed in 2019 aimed at hampering Maduro's sources of financing,
also placed restrictions on US-based investors trying to trade the
debt, the report notes.  While Maduro has repeatedly expressed
willingness to engage with creditors, there are few signs that a
resolution is around the corner, the report discloses.

Since launching the fund in March, Zampa has seen inflows of about
US$10 million, enough to accumulate bonds with a face value of
roughly US$200 million, the report relays.  He's looking to raise
another US$40 million, the report notes.

Other funds have taken similar positions, hoping for a big payoff,
the report relays. Just days before the November agreement between
Maduro and the opposition, bonds issued by Petroleos de Venezuela
SA, known as PDVSA, were trading as low as two cents on the dollar,
the report notes.  They're now at 5 cents.

Government bonds also jumped one cent and remain above nine cents,
the report discloses.  Uncertainty regarding when and how the US
will grant further sanctions relief is preventing prices from
rising further since a formal restructuring is nearly impossible
under current conditions, the report says.

Venezuela's defaulted debt has accumulated almost $30 billion in
interest, according to calculations from EMFI Group Ltd, the report
relays.

The agreement that gave Chevron a six-month license to produce oil
in Venezuela and resume exports is a positive development for
bondholders as it involves an accord between a US firm and the
Venezuelan government that has the blessing of the Biden
administration, Zampa said, the report relays.  The deal also
allows Chevron to collect on money it's owed by PDVSA, the report
says.

The development represents a step forward for creditors, but US
bondholders still can't engage in debt talks with the Maduro
adminis tration or enforce their claims in US courts, the report
notes. "Investors are not currently being treated equally," he
said.

Unlike some of its peers, Cayman Islands-based Phoenix is not a
litigation fund, Zampa says, the report discloses.  It operates
separately from Mangart. The fund doesn't charge management fees,
opting instead take a cut of any gains upon redemption, the report
says.

Zampa emphasises that investors could still be a long way from
seeing a meaningful payout, the report relays.  The next milestone
may come with the elections but it could be three more years before
any debt talks start, Zampa says.  He thinks it'll be worth the
wait, the report notes.

"Venezuela bonds are like an option that never expires," he said,
adds the report.




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X X X X X X X X
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CARIBBEAN: Headwinds Facing Post-Pandemic Recovery
--------------------------------------------------
Caribbean countries should prepare for prolonged effects of
external economic shocks in 2023, including for high food and fuel
prices and rising international interest rates, according to a new
report from the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

Higher interest rates could lead to economic slowdowns, or even
recessions, in important source markets for exported services and
goods from the Caribbean.

The impact of these shocks depends on the trade structure of
individual countries, as well as the external financing
requirements of each country, according to Headwinds Facing the
Post-Pandemic Recovery.  Households and firms everywhere, however,
feel the pinch of rising prices of key commodities.

The report's key findings include:

Rising commodity prices affect the terms of trade. The rise in
hydrocarbon prices has an obvious positive effect for net
hydrocarbon exporters, but a negative effect for net hydrocarbon
importers. The case is similar for net exporters versus net
importers of agricultural commodities. One simple way to measure
the potential impact is to look at the net trade value of these
commodities as a share of GDP. For net importers (the Bahamas,
Barbados, Guyana and Jamaica), net imports of hydrocarbons and
agricultural commodities ranged from about 5% to 15% of GDP in
2021. This implies that substantial price increases of those
products can have a significant impact on trade balance and real
incomes.

Rising inflation is "imported" from commodity-price inflation. The
annual inflation rate climbed to an average of 8% by mid-summer in
the Caribbean countries covered in this report, excluding Suriname,
which has been coping with high inflation since the fall of 2020.
This rate is lower than that of many other countries in the world.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), average
inflation for Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic
rose to 9% in August 2022, and average annual inflation of 12.5%is
projected for Latin America in 2022. An element of the lower rate
in the Caribbean is direct actions to keep prices from rising.
The rise in reference rates increases borrowing costs. The Russian
invasion of Ukraine occurred just as central banks in financial
centers – in particular, the United States – were starting a
tightening cycle. The additional price pressures may either
accelerate or lengthen the tightening cycle, or both. From the
onset of the pandemic until March 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve
had maintained the main policy rate at near zero. After an initial
increase in the range of one-fourth to one-half of a percent in
March, the Federal Reserve is now targeting 4.25- 4.5% (as of
mid-December 2022). This is the fastest rise in policy rates in
decades. The rise in the reference rate invariably raises the cost
of borrowing in international markets for most countries and
companies. There is pressure to raise domestic interest rates as
well.

Households and businesses are feeling the impact of price
increases. Although domestic inflation has been somewhat less
severe in Caribbean countries, rising prices diminish real incomes
for households and increase business costs for firms. Online
surveys from the World Food Program suggest a sharp rise in food
insecurity across the Caribbean.

"Hopefully, these unfortunate external conditions will improve
during 2023. As with natural disasters, however, it always prudent
to prepare for the worst, even as we hope for the best," said David
Rosenblatt, the regional economic advisor for the IDB's Caribbean
Department.

The authors put forward several reform priorities, such as
continued attention to fiscal consolidation and debt management on
the macroeconomic dimension and targeted interventions to help
households cope with the effects of rising food and fuel prices.

Headwinds Facing the Post-Pandemic Recovery is part of the IDB's
Caribbean Economics Quarterly series. In addition to a regional
overview section, it contains country-specific sections for the
Bahamas, Barbados, Guyana, Jamaica Suriname, and Trinidad and
Tobago.

LATAM: Job Recovery in the Region Attained in 2022
--------------------------------------------------
Latin America and the Caribbean registered a total recovery of jobs
in the second half of 2022, reaching levels greater than those
observed before the pandemic, according to a new report from the
Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).

By September 2022, economies in the region had gained 8 million
extra jobs compared to those available in March 2020 when the
pandemic hit. This is one of the main conclusions of IDB's Labor
Market Observatory in its latest report analyzing the labor markets
of 15 countries in our region. The study shows an uneven recovery
among the different countries and sectors of the economy and
highlights the growth of formal employment throughout the year.

Despite the good news, the report emphasizes that net employment
growth in the last 30 months is still slow and that even as 2021's
economic recovery led employment to its peak in November of that
year, it slumped again in the first months of 2022. "The increase
we saw in the third trimester of 2022 means that we barely had an
annual growth rate of 2% in almost 30 months. It's a sign of
continuing weakness," warned Oliver Azuara, senior specialist at
the IDB.

Even when the impact of the sanitary crisis was harder for
disadvantaged groups in the region, mainly affecting younger and
informal workers, those with lower education levels, and specially
women, the total job recovery observed in the second half of 2022
is explained by the growth of women's employment. For the first
time in the pandemic, women's employment recovery marginally
exceeded men's employment recovery. This, according to Laura
Ripani, head of the Labor Markets Division at the Inter-American
Development Bank, means that only the percentage of the gender gap
deepened and worsened by the pandemic was closed and that the
absolute gender gap persists.

Additionally, the study points to a growth in formal employment in
the second half of the year that surpasses the growth of informal
employment, showing a rise in quality employment, though not at the
rate and velocity the region requires.


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S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.

Copyright 2023.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2746.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
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Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

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delivered via e-mail.  Additional e-mail subscriptions for members
of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each.  For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
.


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