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       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Tuesday, December 20, 2022, Vol. 23, No. 247

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

AGUAS Y SANEAMIENTOS: Deal to Have Critical Mass to Deter Holdouts


B A R B A D O S

BARBADOS: IDB OKs $100M Loan to Improve Public Policy & Fiscal Mgmt


B R A Z I L

BRAZIL: Central Bank Sees Lower GDP Growth in 2023
BRAZIL: Meat Consumption Falls in 2022
MOVIDA: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable, Affirms 'BB-' ICR
[*] BRAZIL: Agribusiness Surpasses US$10B in Monthly Exports


J A M A I C A

JAMAICA: Remittances Projected to Exceed US$3B Despite Flow Slide


X X X X X X X X

LATAM: Debt Set for a Comeback as Politics Give a Break

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A R G E N T I N A
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AGUAS Y SANEAMIENTOS: Deal to Have Critical Mass to Deter Holdouts
------------------------------------------------------------------
Scott Squires at Bloomberg News reports that any creditors
considering holding out for a better deal in a debt restructuring
offer from Argentina's state-owned water utility AySA should
probably think again.

An ad hoc group of investors hold enough of the US$500 million of
bonds issued by Aguas y Saneamientos Argentinos SA, known as AySA,
to force potential holdouts into accepting the deal, according to
two people with direct knowledge of the matter, according to
Bloomberg News.

An accord, known as a preventive extrajudicial agreement, allows
the company and its creditors to impose the restructuring terms on
holdouts by demonstrating to an Argentine court that it has
majority support, the Bloomberg News relays.  The mechanism in this
case is an alternative to collective action clauses - the legal
language in a bond's contracts that are designed to maximize
participation and discourage holdouts, the Bloomberg News notes.

Argentina's battles with holdout creditors in the last decade has
made the country a testing ground for novel legal language in debt
exchanges, the Bloomberg News relays.

"We have seen levels of holdouts that have been quite significant
in past debt exchanges, which is why we've put together this
consent solicitation," said Daniel Marx, founder of Quantum
Finanzas consultancy firm in Buenos Aires, which is acting as
financial advisor for AySA in the exchange, Bloomberg News says.

The creditor group is comprised of Callaway Capital Management,
GoldenTree Asset Management, Moneda SA, Sandglass Capital Advisors,
Shiprock Capital Management and VR Advisory Services, and holds 80
percent of AySA's outstanding 2023 securities, according to a
statement published November 19, Bloomberg News discloses.

Creditors who don't voluntarily accept the offer and are then
dragged into the exchange would receive worse terms than creditors
who accepted early, and would take longer to be paid, Marx said,
Bloomberg News says.

AySA is offering creditors an exchange of bonds due February 2023
for new notes maturing in 2026 that carry a higher coupon of 7.9
percent, versus 6.625 percent previously, Bloomberg News relays.
Holders who tender will also receive a cash consideration,
Bloomberg News notes.  AySA's bonds have soared since it announced
the restructuring in November, climbing more than 11 cents to 72
cents on the dollar, Bloomberg News relays.

The early deadline for AySA's exchange is December 8 at 5pm in New
York. The offer was to expire at 11.59pm on December 19.



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B A R B A D O S
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BARBADOS: IDB OKs $100M Loan to Improve Public Policy & Fiscal Mgmt
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Barbados will strengthen the efficiency and effectiveness of public
policy and fiscal management in response to the health and economic
crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic, with a $100 million loan from
the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).  

This operation is the second in a Programmatic Policy-Based (PBP)
series consisting of two contractually independent but technically
connected loans. The first operation was approved in December
2020.

The first operation supported the countercyclical effect of fiscal
policy through temporary measures to protect vulnerable households
and increase liquidity for businesses during the health and
economic crisis.

This second operation ensures the timely availability of financial
resources to respond to the health crisis and attain the required
level of health services to manage and/or suppress future COVID-19
cases. It also includes measures to increase health personnel to
support COVID-19 efforts and promote the economic and fiscal
recovery during the post-pandemic period in the country.

The program also supports increased cash transfer benefits to
vulnerable populations and credit for low-income households to
build or buy a home. It also supports financial assistance for
self-employed and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to strengthen
business continuity in an online environment and the design of an
industrial development plan and a capitalization plan for the
National Insurance Scheme.

To promote economic recovery during the post-pandemic period, the
project is supporting the appointment of the Jobs and Investment
Council to contribute to policy response during and after COVID-19
and measures to strengthen tax revenue collection, tax, and customs
administration as well as macro fiscal management.

This operation continues to build climate resiliency and
decarbonization through green tax incentives for electromobility
adoption. It also further strengthens the capacity of the Ministry
of Finance in climate finance and the mainstreaming of climate
considerations.

The IDB loan has a 20-year repayment term, a 5.5-year grace period,
and an interest rate based on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate
(SOFR).




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B R A Z I L
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BRAZIL: Central Bank Sees Lower GDP Growth in 2023
--------------------------------------------------
Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that the Brazilian Central
Bank (BC) has revised the projection for economic growth this year
from 2.7% to 2.9%.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate, the sum of all goods and
services produced in the country, is in the Inflation Report
released Dec. 15 by the Central Bank, according to Rio Times
Online.

For 2023, the GDP growth projection remains at 1%, the report
relays.

According to the report, the high GDP projection this year
reflected the "increase in the forecast for the services sector,
partially offset by a decrease in the estimates for agriculture and
livestock and industry," the report discloses.

                        About Brazil

Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas.  Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022
Brazilian general election. He will be sworn in on January 1, 2023,

as the 39th president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.

In July 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating at 'BB-' and revised the Rating
Outlook to Stable from Negative.  In June 2022, S&P Global
Ratings also affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term foreign and
local currency sovereign credit ratings on Brazil.  Moody's, in
April 2022, affirmed Brazil's long-term Ba2 issuer ratings and
senior unsecured bond ratings, (P)Ba2 senior unsecured shelf
ratings, and maintained the stable outlook.  On the other had,
DBRS, in August 2022, confirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign and
Local Currency Issuer Ratings at BB (low).


BRAZIL: Meat Consumption Falls in 2022
--------------------------------------
Tatiana Freitas at Bloomberg News reports that meat consumption in
Brazil, the world's biggest beef and chicken exporter, fell sharply
this year as rising food prices curbs demand.  What's most curious:
more than 90 percent of Brazilians say they don't want to return to
their past meat-eating habits, according to Bloomberg News.

Sixty-seven percent of Brazilians ate less animal protein in the
past 12 months than in the year before, according to research from
the Good Food Institute (GFI) and Toluna, a global research firm,
the report notes.  While most of them mentioned higher prices as
the main reason for the cut back, more than a third said health
concerns were the principal motivation for changing habits, the
report relays.  About half of those said the change was self
motivated, the report notes.

Brazil joins the list of big meat markets that curbed consumption
amid rising prices, sparked by higher feed and logistic costs and
lower supplies as exports to Asia soared, the report discloses.
Similar changes hit beef sales in Argentina and the United States,
which along with Brazil are the biggest consumers of the red meat,
the report says.

One-in-three Brazilians curbing meat consumption adopted
plant-based fake meat as a replacement, up from 25 percent a year
earlier, the report erlays.  Such products are most popular among
buyers that slashed meat from the diet for health issues, but are
also being chosen by customers hurt by food inflation, the GFI
said, the report notes.

Only seven percent of Brazilians said they want to eat more meat
next year, the report relays.  In the group that is already buying
less animal protein, 93 percent said they plan to keep their
current diet or reduce meat further, the report notes.  "There's no
immediate anxiety to increase meat consumption," GFI, said
mentioning a promising outlook for plant-based meat substitutes in
Brazil, the report relays.  "Those who curbs meat consumption enter
a journey to cut it even more," GFI added.

                        About Brazil

Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas.  Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022
Brazilian general election. He will be sworn in on January 1, 2023,

as the 39th president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.

In July 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating at 'BB-' and revised the Rating
Outlook to Stable from Negative.  In June 2022, S&P Global
Ratings also affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term foreign and
local currency sovereign credit ratings on Brazil.  Moody's, in
April 2022, affirmed Brazil's long-term Ba2 issuer ratings and
senior unsecured bond ratings, (P)Ba2 senior unsecured shelf
ratings, and maintained the stable outlook.  On the other had,
DBRS, in August 2022, confirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign and
Local Currency Issuer Ratings at BB (low).


MOVIDA: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable, Affirms 'BB-' ICR
-------------------------------------------------------
On Dec. 16, 2022, S&P Global Ratings revised the outlook on the
Brazilian rental car company Movida Participacoes S.A. (Movida) to
stable from positive and affirmed its global and national scale
ratings of 'BB-' and 'brAA+', respectively. S&P also affirmed the
issue-level ratings on the company's senior unsecured debentures
and senior notes, with a recovery rating of '3' (65%).

The stable outlook indicates S&P views that Movida will continue
expanding operations, cash flows, and its fleet. The outlook also
reflects that credit metrics will remain relatively weak in 2023,
but it expects them to gradually improve starting in 2024.

Movida's debt jumped in the past few years to fund capital
expenditures (capex), which amid elevated interest rates in Brazil
in 2022 and 2023, has increased the interest burden. S&P forecasts
gross debt of almost R$20 billion by the end of 2022, and net debt
of about R$12 billion. Higher interest burden will weaken EBIT
interest coverage to about 1.4x and FFO to debt to 12% by 2023,
compared with its previous expectation of about 2x and 20%.

S&P said, "For the next few years, we expect Movida to finance most
of its capex with existing cash position of R$5.5 billion, as of
September 2022, and operating cash generation of about R$1 billion
in 2023 and R$2 billion in 2024. Therefore, we forecast stable debt
levels in the next few years.

"We expect total fleet of about 210,000 cars in 2022 and growing
almost 5% in 2023 and 10% in 2024, given an expansion of the fleet
management segment, balanced by the contraction of the rent-a-car
(RaC) segment's fleet to improve efficiency. In 2022, RaC's
occupancy rate decreased to about 77.5% in the nine months ended
September from the historical level of more than 80%. We believe
this is mostly because of Movida's rapid expansion of the fleet in
the past few quarters, taking advantage of the spike in road travel
and rebound of auto production after several stoppages since the
beginning of the pandemic. We expect occupancy rate to normalize
above 80% in the next few quarters for the downsized fleet.

"We expect the rising cash-flow contribution from the fleet
management segment, which increases cash predictability due to the
nature of long-term contracts, while the RaC segment is more
volatile and dependent on discretionary demand. Still, the company
will continue expanding geographically, opening new RaC facilities
and raise sales of used cars in the cities and regions where it
currently has a small presence, benefiting from price premium."

ESG credit indicators: E-2, S-2, G-3

(Risk management, culture, and oversight)

S&P said, "Governance factors are a moderately negative
consideration in our credit rating analysis of Movida. The chairman
of the board and indirect controlling shareholder have been
implicated in alleged fraud in bidding for contracts, corruption,
and bribery. Although such allegations could increase reputational
risks and eventually result in fines for the parent, Simpar, no
legal decisions have taken place, and some lawsuits have been
dismissed for lack of sufficient evidence. Also, Simpar currently
has processes in place to monitor and mitigate the key risks
related to its public bidding activities, such as independent
third-party audits."


[*] BRAZIL: Agribusiness Surpasses US$10B in Monthly Exports
------------------------------------------------------------
Rio Times Online reports that Brazilian agribusiness exports, in
November of this year, reached US$12.65 billion, surpassing for the
first time, for the month of November, the figure of US$10 billion.


This value was 51.2% higher when compared to the US$8.36 billion
exported in November 2021, according to Rio Times Online.

The export record was a result of the increase in export volume
(+29.3%), but also influenced by prices high average exports
(+16.9%), according to data, the report relays.

                        About Brazil

Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas.  Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022
Brazilian general election. He will be sworn in on January 1, 2023,

as the 39th president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.

In July 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating at 'BB-' and revised the Rating
Outlook to Stable from Negative.  In June 2022, S&P Global
Ratings also affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term foreign and
local currency sovereign credit ratings on Brazil.  Moody's, in
April 2022, affirmed Brazil's long-term Ba2 issuer ratings and
senior unsecured bond ratings, (P)Ba2 senior unsecured shelf
ratings, and maintained the stable outlook.  On the other had,
DBRS, in August 2022, confirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign and
Local Currency Issuer Ratings at BB (low).




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J A M A I C A
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JAMAICA: Remittances Projected to Exceed US$3B Despite Flow Slide
-----------------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that despite a fall-off inflows in 2022 in
comparison to the prior year, remittances for the concluding year
seem set to exceed the US$3-billion mark another time.

In 2021, the historic benchmark of US$3.497 billion was achieved,
according to RJR News.

For the January to October 2022 period, remittance inflows to
Jamaica amounted to US$2836.9 million, the report discloses.  With
two reporting months left to be added to the total, and with
average monthly inflows being US$200 million, it seems a safe bet
that remittances will pass the US$3-billion mark another time, the
report relays.

The island usually sees higher than average inflows in December, as
relatives of Jamaicans who are resident abroad salute the season
with gifts of cash to those left behind, giving them assistance in
their efforts to celebrate the end of the year, the report
discloses.

In October 2022, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) in its latest remittance
report said that net remittance inflows of US$263.3 million,
declined by 5.3 per cent or US$ 14.6 million in comparison to
October of 2021, the report notes.

The BOJ indicates that the slide in inflows stemmed from a decline
in total remittance inflows of US$15.6 million, partly offset by a
reduction of US$0.9 million or 5.2 per cent in total remittance
outflows, the report discloses.

The decline in gross remittance inflows largely reflected a fall of
3.5 per cent in inflows via remittance companies further aided by a
decline in Inflows via the other remittances channel of 15.9 per
cent for the month of October, the report relays.

The BOJ commented, "The decline in remittance inflows is partly due
to increased cash in hand remittances as travel recovers," the
report says.

The largest source market of remittance flows to Jamaica for
October 2022 continued to be the USA from which inflows accounted
for 70.8 per cent, of total flows up from 69.8 per cent recorded
for October 2021, the report relates.

Other source countries which contributed a notable share of
remittances for the month were Canada at 10.9 per cent, followed by
UK and the Cayman Islands at 8.6 per cent and 5.9 per cent,
respectively, the report notes.

Year to date inflows of US$2836.9 million for Jamaica represented a
decline of 2.2 per cent as opposed to El Salvador which registered
growth of 3.6 per cent for the period, the report adds.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in March
2022, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is
Stable.



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X X X X X X X X
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LATAM: Debt Set for a Comeback as Politics Give a Break
-------------------------------------------------------
Buenos Aires Times reports that Latin America's bonds are poised
for a comeback in 2023, with investors planning the perfect moment
to pounce on bargains before a Federal Reserve pivot and China's
reopening send them soaring.

Dollar-denominated debt from Latin American governments and
companies has handed investors returns of more than 10 percent so
far this quarter, outperforming all other regions in an
emerging-market index that has returned seven percent in that
period, according to Buenos Aires Times.  China's move away from
Covid Zero, the potential end of the Fed's interest-rate hiking
cycle and quieter politics could all help the region's notes shine
even brighter in the new year, the report notes.

"Latin America will be one of the most favoured regions, and as a
result, sovereign credits should perform quite well," said Graham
Stock, a strategist at Bluebay Asset Management in London, who
favours cheap bonds from Ecuador and Argentina, the report
discloses.  "Growth in China is likely to accelerate in 2023.  High
commodity prices and increased Chinese demand add important support
for the region," the report relays.

Large commodity exporters such as Brazil, Chile and Peru should
benefit from increased demand from China as Beijing shifts away
from its Covid Zero policies and stresses government support for
its beleaguered property market, the report notes.  The region is
also less exposed to Russia's war in Ukraine, which will likely
continue to weigh on emerging European credits, the report
discloses.

"Latin America is not a screaming buy, but we do expect some modest
outperformance," said Jared Lou, a portfolio manager for
emerging-market debt at William Blair Investment Management in New
York, the report relays.  "Even if we're no longer in the commodity
super cycle, we are still constructive on commodity prices due to
supply constraints and expectations of China reopening," the report
notes.  

According to Lou, Latin America's debt will benefit the most among
emerging markets from lower volatility in US rates, as it has a
longer duration - a measure of sensitivity to fluctuation in
interest rates, the report discloses.

Debt from the region has an average duration of 8.1 years, compared
to 6.9 years for JPMorgan Chase & Co's developing-market sovereign
debt index, the report says.  Africa's debt has an average duration
of 5.4 years, while Asia stands at 6.7, Europe at 5.3 and the
Middle East at 7.2, the report notes.

                              Risk Ebbs

According to the report, political risk may take a back seat in the
year ahead. None of the region's main economies has presidential
elections scheduled until October, when Argentines will choose a
new leader.

In Brazil, traders are hoping President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da
Silva's government will be fiscally responsible, even if his
finance minister pick isn't a market darling, notes Buenos Aires
Times.

Investors have also warmed up to Colombia's Gustavo Petro, who's
proposed to halt oil exploration and sell bonds to fund land
purchases, as the nation's bonds are too cheap to pass on,
according to Zulfi Ali, a money manager at PGIM Fixed Income in
Newark, the the report relays.

"The risk is that the market unfriendly policies persist, but so
far they've tended to pivot toward what the market expects," said
Ali, adding the firm has a small overweight on the region's
corporate bonds, the report notes. Other corners of Latin America,
such as the Dominican Republic, he said, are also attractive as
political risk is "quite small."

The report relates that investors also see little risk of a default
in El Salvador in 2023, where Nayib Bukele's policies have sent the
sovereign debt into a tailspin. The nation's bond due in January
has been edging closing to par.

And even in Peru, which just swore in its sixth president in four
years, investors are soothed by relatively strong fiscal and
external positions, as well as the new president's pick of a
US-educated former central bank economist as finance chief, says
Buenos Aires Times.

The report notes that since late October, when the sell-off in
emerging-market dollar bonds halted, Latin America has seen the
smallest relative narrowing in spreads among the five regions. That
suggests there's scope to contract further, especially given the
possibly improving political climate.

"All in all, political risk will be little a bit less pronounced
next year," said Sarah Glendon, a senior analyst at Columbia
Threadneedle Investments in New York, the report notes. "Even if
the market doesn't like who we have, the market knows who we have
in office in most major Latin American economies."


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S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.

Copyright 2022.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2746.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
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Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

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delivered via e-mail.  Additional e-mail subscriptions for members
of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each.  For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
.


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