/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/221214.mbx        T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Wednesday, December 14, 2022, Vol. 23, No. 243

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

ARGENTINA: To Introduce Income Tax Relief in January


B R A Z I L

BANCO BV: Moody's Affirms Ba2 Deposit & Sr. Unsecured Debt Ratings
BRAZIL: Ambassador Estimates Trade With Russia at US$8.8 Billion
BRAZIL: Inflation Slows to 0.41% in November
EMBRAER SA: Eve Chooses Startup From Brazil to Launch 'Flying Car'
GUARA NORTE: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Sr. Sec. Notes, Outlook Now Stable

SBM BALEIA SII: Fitch Affirms BB- Notes Rating, Outlook Now Stable


D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Monetary Policy Rate Fluctuated Constantly


E L   S A L V A D O R

GRUPO UNICOMER: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' LT IDRs, Outlook Now Stable


J A M A I C A

TRANSJAMAICAN HIGHWAY: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Rating on Sr. Sec. Notes


X X X X X X X X

LATIN AMERICA: Venezuelan Migrants Bring Economic Opportunity

                           - - - - -


=================
A R G E N T I N A
=================

ARGENTINA: To Introduce Income Tax Relief in January
----------------------------------------------------
Reuters reports that Argentina's government will raise the floor
for income taxes in January, the country's Economy Minister Sergio
Massa said, amid union demands to ease the burden on workers.

"With this tax relief, in 2023, no worker who earns less than
404,062 pesos (about $2,378 monthly) will pay the tax," Massa said
in a tweet, according to the report.

The minister did not disclose the fiscal cost of the decision,
which he said is set to benefit some 312,864 workers, the report
notes.

The previous floor stood at 330,000 pesos ($1,942.32), the report
relays.  With this update, Massa said fewer than 600,000 wage
earners in the country will pay the tax, less than 10% of the
country's total workforce, the report adds.

                     About Argentina

Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Alberto Angel
Fernandez is the current president of Argentina after winning
the October 2019 general election. He succeeded Mauricio
Macri in the position.

Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America.  The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however,
its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.

Last March 25, 2022, Argentina finalized agreement with the IMF
for a new USD44 billion Extended Funding Facility (EFF) intended
to fund USD40 billion in looming repayments of the defunct
Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), with an extra USD4 billion in up-front
net financing. This has averted the risk of a default to the IMF
and is facilitating a parallel rescheduling of Paris Club debt.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on
Nov. 18, 2022, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'CCC+/C' foreign
currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina. S&P lowered the
long-term local currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC-' from
'CCC+' and the national scale rating to 'raCCC+' from 'raBBB-'.
S&P also affirmed its 'C' short-term local currency rating.
The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. S&P's 'CCC+'
transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged.

Last April 14, 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'CCC'.
Fitch said Argentina's 'CCC' ratings reflect weak external
liquidity and pronounced macroeconomic imbalances that undermine
debt repayment capacity, and uncertainty regarding how much
progress can be made on these issues under a new IMF program.
On July 19, 2022, Fitch Ratings placed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and Long-Term Local
Currency IDR Under Criteria Observation (UCO) following the
conversion of the agency's Exposure Draft: Sovereign Rating
Criteria to final criteria. The UCO assignment indicates that
ratings may change as a direct result of the final criteria. It
does not indicate a change in the underlying credit profile, nor
does it affect existing Rating Outlooks.

Moody's credit rating for Argentina was last set at Ca on
Sept. 28, 2020.

DBRS has also confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency
Issuer Rating at CCC and Long-Term Local Currency Issuer Rating at
CCC (high) on July 21, 2022.



===========
B R A Z I L
===========

BANCO BV: Moody's Affirms Ba2 Deposit & Sr. Unsecured Debt Ratings
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed all ratings and assessments
assigned to Banco BV (BV), including its long- and short-term local
and foreign currency deposit ratings of Ba2 and Not Prime as well
as its foreign currency senior unsecured debt and senior unsecured
MTN Program ratings of Ba2 and (P)Ba2, respectively. Moody's also
affirmed the bank's ba3 baseline credit assessment (BCA), its ba2
adjusted BCA and its long-term counterparty risk assessment (CR
assessment) of Ba1(cr). The rating outlook remains stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

In affirming BV's ba3 BCA, Moody's acknowledges the bank's
consistent reporting of good profitability metrics in the seven
quarters up to September 2022, which reflects BV's efforts to
reinforce its business strategy and increase earnings
diversification. BV has expanded the origination of unsecured
consumer finance products, in addition to its traditional portfolio
of inherently riskier pre-owned auto loans, which has contributed
to strengthen earnings generation in 2022. However, Moody's expect
this strategy will also likely rise asset risks in the next two to
three quarters, particularly amid a scenario of high inflation and
decelerating economic activity that will continue to pressure
households' repayment capacity beyond 2022.  

The BCA affirmation also incorporates BV's more conservative
approach to underwrite loans since the end of last year, which
resulted in a more contained asset quality deterioration,
especially in auto loans. In September 2022, the non-performing
loans over 90 days for auto loans was 4.6%, from 3.8% in September
2021, while the banking system's average loan delinquency for that
product increased to 5.2% from 3.4%. In addition, the overall loan
loss reserves remained above problem loans by 117%, representing
8.2% of gross loans in September 2022. This reserve coverage will
likely provide some buffer amid a still challenging underlying
environment in 2023.

BV's net income to tangible banking assets ratio increased to 1.45%
in September 2022, from 1.32% one year before. Profitability
benefited from growth of higher margin loans and lower credit costs
in the last 12 months ended in September 2022, despite negative
effects from a slowdown in the origination of its core product
(auto loans, that accounted for 52% of total credit exposure) and
elevated operating expenses. Moody's expect the bank's bottom line
results to improve in the short to mid-term from higher business
diversification and efficiency gains stemming from investments in
technology and new business initiatives. Despite that,
profitability metrics remains challenged by macroeconomic headwinds
that will likely result in lower business origination and higher
provision costs in 2023. BV's digital bank and its
bank-as-a-service platforms can serve as channels to attract retail
depositors, adding more granular funding resources, which will
continue to support business growth and its ample liquidity
position.

BV's BCA of ba3 remains challenged by the banks low capitalization
metrics, measured as Moody's ratio of tangible common equity to
risk weighted assets (TCE/RWA), that remain well below that of its
peers. This capital ratio, that stood at 6.94% in September 2022,
reflects the large volume of deferred tax assets (DTAs) held by BV
on its balance sheet. The TCE/RWA ratio steadily improved in the
past two years supported by the relatively stable profitability
that allowed the reduction of DTAs. On a regulatory basis, BV's
common equity tier 1 was 12.9% in September 2022, in line with its
peers.

BV's Ba2 global local currency deposit ratings reflect the bank's
fundamental credit strength, as evidenced by its ba3 BCA, and
incorporates a one-notch uplift from Moody's assessment of high
affiliate support from Banco do Brasil S.A. (BB, Ba2 stable, ba2).

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

BV's BCA could be upgraded if the bank reports sustained
strengthening of asset quality and capitalization metrics.
Nevertheless, the upward pressure on BV's Ba2 deposit and debt
ratings is limited because they are at the same level as the
Government of Brazil's sovereign rating of Ba2.

Downward pressures to BV's BCA and ratings could be arise from
sharp asset quality deterioration over the next outlook horizon,
resulting in consistent weakening of its capital ratios (under
Moody's metric), or a significant decline in liquid resources and
funding quality.

METHODOLOGY USED

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks
Methodology published in July 2021.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS AND ASSESSMENTS

The following ratings and assessments of Banco BV were affirmed:

Long-term global local currency deposit rating of Ba2, stable
outlook

Short-term global local currency deposit rating of Not Prime

Long-term global foreign currency deposit rating of Ba2, stable
outlook

Short-term global foreign currency deposit rating of Not Prime

Senior unsecured foreign currency debt rating of Ba2, stable
outlook

Senior unsecured foreign currency Medium-Term Note Program of
(P)Ba2

Other Short Term foreign currency of (P)Not Prime

Pref. Stock Non-cumulative foreign currency of B2(hyb)

Long-term global local currency counterparty risk rating of Ba1

Short-term global local currency counterparty risk rating of Not
Prime

Long-term global foreign currency counterparty risk rating of Ba1

Short-term global foreign currency counterparty risk rating of Not
Prime

Baseline credit assessment of ba3

Adjusted baseline credit assessment of ba2

Long-term counterparty risk assessment of Ba1(cr)

Short-term counterparty risk assessment of Not Prime(cr)

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Remains Stable

BRAZIL: Ambassador Estimates Trade With Russia at US$8.8 Billion
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Rio Times Online reports that trade between Brazil and Russia
has already reached US$8.8 billion, according to the Brazilian
ambassador in Moscow, Rodrigo de Lima Baena Soares.

"By November 2022, our trade has risen to US$8.8 billion, a record
number," the diplomat said during a webinar, according to The Rio
Times Online.

Rodrigo de Lima Baena Soares was convinced that Brazil and Russia
could "little by little achieve the goal of US$10 billion," the
report relays.

                        About Brazil

Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas.  Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022
Brazilian general election. He will be sworn in on January 1, 2023,

as the 39th president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.

In July 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating at 'BB-' and revised the Rating
Outlook to Stable from Negative.  In June 2022, S&P Global
Ratings also affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term foreign and
local currency sovereign credit ratings on Brazil.  Moody's, in
April 2022, affirmed Brazil's long-term Ba2 issuer ratings and
senior unsecured bond ratings, (P)Ba2 senior unsecured shelf
ratings, and maintained the stable outlook.  On the other had,
DBRS, in August 2022, confirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign and
Local Currency Issuer Ratings at BB (low).


BRAZIL: Inflation Slows to 0.41% in November
--------------------------------------------
Rio Times Online reports that inflation in Brazil was 0.41% in
November. The IPCA (National Broad Consumer Price Index) slowed
down in relation to October when it was 0.59%.

The IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) released
the result on Dec. 9, the report relays.

The result surprised the financial market, which estimated a rate
close to 0.54% for the month, the report notes.

The price index accumulates a high of 5.13% in the year. In 12
months, it decreased from 6.47% in October to 5.90% in November,
the report adds.

                        About Brazil

Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas.  Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022
Brazilian general election. He will be sworn in on January 1, 2023,

as the 39th president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.

In July 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating at 'BB-' and revised the Rating
Outlook to Stable from Negative.  In June 2022, S&P Global
Ratings also affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term foreign and
local currency sovereign credit ratings on Brazil.  Moody's, in
April 2022, affirmed Brazil's long-term Ba2 issuer ratings and
senior unsecured bond ratings, (P)Ba2 senior unsecured shelf
ratings, and maintained the stable outlook.  On the other had,
DBRS, in August 2022, confirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign and
Local Currency Issuer Ratings at BB (low).

EMBRAER SA: Eve Chooses Startup From Brazil to Launch 'Flying Car'
------------------------------------------------------------------
Sergio Ripardo at Rio Times Online reports that one of the
companies on investor radar in 2023, Eve (EVEX), an electric
aircraft company controlled by Embraer (EMBR3), closed an agreement
for the sale of 40 eVTOLs (electric flying vehicle) with the air
mobility startup FlyBis, headquartered in the city of Caxias do Sul
in the State of Rio Grande do Sul.

Headquartered in Sao Jose dos Campos, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil,
Embraer SA manufactures and markets commercial, corporate, and
defense aircraft.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Nov.
10, 2022,  Egan-Jones Ratings Company, on October 4, 2022, retained
the 'B' local currency senior unsecured rating on debt issued by
Embraer SA.  

GUARA NORTE: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Sr. Sec. Notes, Outlook Now Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the senior secured notes issued by Guara
Norte S.a r.l. at 'BB+' and has revised the Rating Outlook to
Stable from Negative to align with the sovereign. Brazil's Stable
Outlook considers the better than expected evolution of public
finances since May 2020. The notes are collateralized by a charter
agreement and the related proceeds from the operations of the
Cidade de Ilhabela (CdI) floating-production storage and offloading
(FPSO) vessel.

   Entity/Debt             Rating           Prior
   -----------             ------           -----
Guara Norte S.a r.l.

   Senior Secured
   Notes due
   15-Jun-2034
   400666AA1            LT BB+  Affirmed      BB+

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

The senior secured notes issued by Guara Norte S.a.r.l. are backed
by the flows related to the charter agreement initially signed with
Guara B.V. for the use of the FPSO Cidade de Ilhabela (CdI) for a
term of 20 years. The BM-S-9 consortium is comprised of Petrobras,
with 45% share, and Shell Brasil (wholly owned subsidiary of Royal
Dutch Shell plc) with 30% share, and Repsol YPF Brazil S.A. (a
joint venture between Repsol and Sinopec) with 25% share.

The vessel is operated by a Brazilian subsidiary of SBM Offshore,
through a services agreement. The CdI FPSO began operating in 2014
at the Sapinhoa oil field in the pre-salt layer of the Santos Basin
off the coast of Brazil. Fitch's rating addresses the timely
payment of interest and principal on a semiannual basis until the
legal final maturity in June 2034.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

CONSORTIUM OBLIGATION STRENGTH EXCEEDS PETROBRAS': The offtaking
consortium is backed by Petrobras (45% share), the Shell subsidiary
Shell Brasil Petroleo Ltda (30%) and the Repsol/Sinopec joint
venture (25%); all the pro rata obligations are guaranteed by
affiliate companies (for the Petrobras group, Petrobras
International Braspetro B.V.).

The offtakers' obligations related to the 20-year charter and joint
operating agreements are several, but not joint, as each party
guarantees that it will make its portion of the payment. However,
these payments can be seen as joint and several as the underlying
concession states that each party must support all the obligations
related to ongoing production. Fitch expects the payments to
continue given the high economic incentives to maintain the
concession. Therefore, the rating of the lowest-rated member,
Petrobras (BB-/Stable), does not strictly limit the notes' rating.

SOVEREIGN EVENTAND T&C RISK SUPPORTS UPLIFT: The transaction's
reserve of six months of debt service (through letters of credit
provided by Mizuho Bank Ltd. and MUFG Bank Ltd., both
rated'A-'/Stable/'F1' and the offshore payment obligations offer
sufficient protection to mitigate potential transfer and
convertibility (T&C) restrictions and exceed Brazil's Country
Ceiling of 'BB' by one notch. However, the event risk linked to the
operating environment, with Petrobras being a state-owned
enterprise, subject the transaction to potential political
interference, limits the uplift over Brazil's 'BB-' Issuer Default
Rating (IDR) 'BB-' and Stable Outlook to two notches and,
therefore, to 'BB+'/Stable.

EXPERIENCED OPERATOR MITIGATES RISK: The group of the operator, SBM
Offshore, is a global player in building and managing FPSOs, a
concentrated industry. Fitch views SBM's experience as the operator
as a strength, given the past performance their overall fleet and
other rated transactions. CdI's record shows an excellent
historical of commercial uptime, at 99.65% from September 2021 to
September 2022 and 99.02% uptime from 2014-September 2022. Due to
the complexities of replacing SBM as the operator, the credit
quality SBM remains an important rating driver; however, Fitch
views the credit metrics of SBM to be in line with investment grade
metrics.

STRONG FINANCIAL METRICS: Fitch's cash flow analysis has assessed
the repayment of the fully amortizing debt, assuming timely
interest and principal payments according to a nondeferrable
sculpted amortization schedule and a cash trapping condition should
the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) fall below 1.15x. In our
base case, the DSCR remains at 1.72x-1.94x through the life of the
transaction, and stress case DSCRs remain well above trigger
levels.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

As described in Key Rating Drivers, the rating of the transaction
is linked to Brazil's IDR, with an uplift of two notches.
Therefore, a sovereign downgrade would trigger a downgrade of the
notes.

Considering the credit strength of the other operators, Fitch
assigned a rating in excess of Petrobras' by two notches, and this
remains possible as long as the other offtakers remain rated above
the notes. Given the current ratings of the other offtakers, Fitch
deems this risk to be remote.

The other counterparty that could constrain the rating is the
operator, the SBM group, which Fitch considers to have a better
credit quality than the senior notes.

Finally, the cash flow analysis results in very robust output,
consistent with ratings in the 'BBB' category. Although the DSCR
and ultimate debt repayment depend on uptime, maintenance days,
opex and CPI, none of these variables could drive ratings down
under the stresses Fitch applied (and considering a cap for opex).

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

The rating is constrained by the operating environment and
counterparty issues. An upgrade of Brazil (which would likely also
result in an upgrade of Petrobras) may result in an upgrade.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

SBM BALEIA SII: Fitch Affirms BB- Notes Rating, Outlook Now Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed SBM Baleia Azul, SII/ S.a.r.l.'s series
2012-1 senior secured notes due 2027 at 'BB-'. The Rating Outlook
has been revised to Stable from Negative due to Fitch's review of
transaction performance amidst vessel shutdown and the alignment of
the outlook with the off-taker, Petrobras. The transaction's rating
is capped by Fitch's view of the strength of the offtaker's payment
obligation, which in this case is equalized with Petrobras' Issuer
Default Rating (IDR).

   Entity/Debt        Rating         Prior
   -----------        ------         -----
SBM Baleia Azul,
SII/ S.a.r.l.

   Senior
   L8038*AA4       LT BB-  Affirmed    BB-

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

The notes are backed by the flows related to the charter agreement
signed with Petrobras for the use of the Cidade de Anchieta
floating production storage and offloading unit (FPSO) for a term
of 18 years. SBM do Brasil Ltda. (SBM Brasil), the Brazilian
subsidiary of SBM Holding Inc. S.A. (SBM), is the operator of the
FPSO. SBM is the sponsor of the transaction. The Cidade de Anchieta
FPSO began operating at the Baleia Azul oil field (now considered
part of the New Jubarte field) in September 2012.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

PETROBRAS' CREDIT QUALITY AS CONSTRAINT

Fitch uses the offtaker's IDR as the starting point to determine
the appropriate strength of the offtaker's payment obligation. On
July 18, 2022, Fitch affirmed Petrobras' Long-Term (LT) IDR at
'BB-' and revised the Outlook to Stable. Petrobras' ratings
continue to reflect its close linkage with the sovereign rating of
Brazil and the outlook reflects the better-than-expected evolution
of public finances amid successive shocks in recent years since May
2020.

STRENGTH OF THE OFFTAKER'S PAYMENT OBLIGATION ALIGNED WITH
PETROBRAS' IDR

Fitch's view on the strength of the off-taker's payment obligation
acts as the ultimate rating cap to the transaction. Given Fitch's
qualitative assessment of asset/contract/operator characteristics
and the off-taker's/industry's characteristics related to this
transaction, the strength of such payment obligation has been
equalized to Petrobras' LT IDR.

EXPERIENCED OPERATOR MITIGATES RISK

SBM Offshore N.V. is the ultimate parent to SBM Holding Inc. S.A.,
the main sponsor of the transaction. The transaction benefits from
SBM Offshore N.V.'s solid business position, global leadership in
leasing FPSOs and overall strong operational performance of its
fleet, aligning SBM's credit quality with investment-grade metrics.
The rating of the transaction is ultimately capped by Fitch's view
of the credit quality of the sponsor.

TRANSACTION CONTINUES TO MEET PAYMENT OBLIGATIONS AMIDST SHUTDOWN

The company, SBM, has been supporting the transaction structure
since vessel shut down in January 2022 due to an oil leak detected
stemming from a corroded tanker. A shareholder loan has been in
place between SBM Holding Inc. (Lender) and SBM Baleia Azul, SII/
S.A.R.L (Borrower) to help support the transaction's timely payment
obligations as necessary. The focus of activities to date has been
on the repair of the four tanks required for the safe restart of
the vessel and is on schedule to resume operations by the end of
2022.

As a result of the shutdown, the overall uptime average since
commercial operations began in 2012 has declined to 91.2%, down
from 97.9% prior to the shutdown.

AVAILABLE LIQUIDITY REDUCES RISK

The transaction benefits from a $26 million (LoCs provided by ABN
Amro, rated A/Stable) debt service reserve account (DSRA)
equivalent to the following two quarterly payments of principal and
interest. This provides support to meet the next debt service
obligations should the vessel be delayed in coming back online and
resuming the charter and SBM ceasing to provide liquidity to the
transaction. From Fitch's understanding, the company and Petrobras
have been working to resume vessel operations in a timely and safe
manner before year-end 2022.

DSCR CONTINUES TO MEET EXPECTATIONS GIVEN SBM SUPPORT

The key leverage metric for fully amortizing FPSO transactions is
the DSCR. The rolling 12-month pre-opex debt service coverage ratio
(DSCR) for the period ending September 2022 was 1.70x. Through the
shareholder loan, SBM Baleia Azul, SII/ S.a.r.l received $11
million in June 2022, $18.5 million in September 2022, and is
expected to receive $18.7 million in December 2022 to assist with
meeting timely interest and principal and to assist with
cost/expenses incurred while repairing the vessel. Since the vessel
is currently not receiving any charter revenue from normal
operations, SBM's support is instrumental for the DSCRs to remain
above trigger levels.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

The rating may be sensitive to changes in Petrobras' credit quality
as charter off-taker, and any deterioration in SBM's credit quality
as operator and sponsor. In addition, the transaction's rating may
be impacted by the Cidade de Anchieta FPSO's operating performance
and prolonged shut down of the vessel that could lead to a contract
termination.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

Fitch does not anticipate developments that could likely trigger an
upgrade. However, the main constraint to the transaction's rating
is currently the offtaker's credit quality. If upgraded, Fitch will
consider whether the strength of the offtaker's payment obligation
would be equalized with the entity's IDR.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.



===================================
D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C
===================================

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Monetary Policy Rate Fluctuated Constantly
--------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that the monetary policy rate (TPM) has
fluctuated constantly, rising 550 basis points since November 2021,
from 3.00% to 8.50% per year.

The Central Bank's (BC) measure aims to combat rising inflation,
which stood at 8.24% in October, according to Dominican Today.
According to Marta Betances, general manager of United Capital
Puesto de Bolsa, the changing macroeconomic environment caused by
the war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the effects left by
the covid-19 pandemic in 2020, caused inflation to reach
historically high levels this year, the report relays.

She expressed that the accelerated, but "timely," upward adjustment
of the interest rate is required to mitigate the inflationary
effects and represents an opportunity to invest in the Dominican
Republic's stock market, the report notes.  "This rate scenario is
an excellent opportunity for investors to take advantage of higher
yields through the different stock exchanges," Betances said,
adding that the national stock market has enabled individuals and
businesses to protect their savings from inflation by investing in
"very attractive" returns, the report discloses.

According to the capital market expert, this sector has aided
regulators in their goal of lowering inflation because by
attracting funds from investors, consumption is replaced by
investment, resulting in a decrease in prices, the report relays.

In this regard, he emphasized that the financial intermediation and
insurance sector, which includes the stock market, accounts for
3.7% of GDP, and that the average growth of this sector in the
economy from January to September 2022 was 5.7%, which was higher
than the overall growth of the economy, which was 5.4% during the
same period, the report adds.

                   About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the
island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis
Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.

The TCR-LA reported in April 2019 that Juan Del Rosario of the
UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

The TCR-LA reported on December 12, 2022, that Fitch Ratings has
affirmed Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a Stable Rating Outlook. Fitch
said Dominican Republic's ratings are supported by a track record
of robust economic growth, a diversified export structure, high
per-capita GDP and social indicators, and governance scores that
compare favorably to peers' after sustained improvement in the
past
decade.

Standard & Poor's, also in December 2021, revised its outlook on
the Dominican Republic to stable from negative.S&P also affirmed
its 'BB-' long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit
ratings and its 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings. The
stable
outlook reflects S&P's expectation of continued favorable GDP
growth and policy continuity over the next 12 to 18 months that
will likely stabilize the government's debt burden, despite lack
of
progress with broader tax reforms, S&P said.A rapid economic
recovery from the downturn because of the pandemic should mitigate
external and fiscal risks.

Moody's affirmed the Dominican Republic's long-term issuer and
senior unsecured ratings at Ba3 and maintained the stable outlook
in March 2021.



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E L   S A L V A D O R
=====================

GRUPO UNICOMER: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' LT IDRs, Outlook Now Stable
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Grupo Unicomer Corp.'s (Unicomer)
Long-Term Local and Foreign Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs)
at 'BB-'. The Rating Outlook has been revised to Stable from
Positive. Fitch has also affirmed Unicomer's USD350 million senior
notes due 2024 at 'BB-'.

The Outlook revision to Stable reflects Fitch's view that a rating
upgrade is unlikely within the next 12 months, as the company's
financial profile will temporarily weaken should the CrediScotia
Financiera (CSF) acquisition materializes. In addition, Unicomer
has some operational challenges to face amid a weakened
macroeconomic environment in the Latin American region. These, are
related to some countries' operating performance and inventory
management due to supply chain interruptions, similar to other
retailers in the region.

Unicomer's ratings incorporate its leading business position,
relatively stable operating cash flows and the solid financial
position of its shareholders. The ratings also consider Unicomer's
geographic and format diversification, which have contributed to
solid operating cash flow generation throughout economic cycles.
The company has proved ability to innovate and quickly respond to
different consumer environments with the combination of its retail
and financial businesses.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Solid Business Position: Unicomer has commercial operations in 26
countries across Central America, South America and the Caribbean.
The company has a track record of more than 22 years in consumer
durables sales, which enabled it to develop long-term relationships
with suppliers. These relationships provide competitive advantages
in terms of store location within small countries, where prime
retailing points of sale are very limited. The company maintains a
leading business position in the retailing of consumer durable
goods. This is supported by proprietary financing services and
economies of scale in terms of purchasing power and logistics.

Geographic and Format Diversification: Geographic diversification
allows Unicomer to have a broad revenue base, supported by
different economic dynamics and mitigates the company's country
risk from any individual market. Jamaica, Costa Rica, Trinidad and
Tobago, Guyana and El Salvador, are among the most important cash
flow contributors, which gives Unicomer some strength and stability
to operating cash flows. Despite geographic diversification, most
of the sovereign ratings of countries in which the company operates
are in the 'B' rating category. The company has several store
formats and brands across operations that cover different
socioeconomic segments of the population.

Growth Funded Mainly with Debt: Historically, Grupo Unicomer
expanded its operations through a combination of organic and
inorganic growth. While organic growth was primarily funded with
internal operating cash flows, acquisitions were funded mainly with
debt. As of September 2022, consolidated gross adjusted
debt/EBITDAR was 5.7x and Fitch expects the company to reduce this
ratio to historical levels of around 4.5x in the medium term. Fitch
believes Unicomer's adjusted leverage could be around 5.0x in the
next two years in case of the CSF acquisition materializes.

An important portion of the company's debt is related to the
financial business and repaid with credit portfolio collections.
Excluding the consumer finance business, the retail-only gross
adjusted leverage should be around 4.0x by the end of fiscal year
ending March 2023, according to Fitch's calculations.

Expected Positive FCF: Fitch expects the company's CFO to be above
USD85 million and FCF to be above USD30 million by FYE ending March
2023. During 2021 and part of 2022, the company's CFO was affected
by higher working capital requirements related to resumption of
portfolio growth and higher inventory levels to mitigate supply
disruptions. To normalize CFO generation, Unicomer is executing
inventory management initiatives to reduce inventory to normal
levels, which is expected to start showing results by FYE March
2023.

Medium term CFO is estimated to be over USD90 million. Capex levels
should be around USD48 million per year during the medium term,
excluding potential acquisitions, and FCF is projected to be above
USD50 million per year.

Attractive Portfolio Net Yield: The company's consumer finance
strategy includes sufficient financial spreads to cover credit
risks in the portfolio. During the past 10 years, the portfolio
yield after deducting expenses, uncollectable expenses and
write-offs has been nearly 35% on average. As of Sept. 30, 2022,
Unicomer's credit portfolio had NPLs (past due accounts for 90 days
or more) of 8.3%, lower than 9.2% a year ago. The company has
provisions equivalent to 134% of those NPLs. The level of overdue
accounts is offset by the company's efficient collection program
and portfolio yield.

Strong Shareholders: Grupo Unicomer's ratings are viewed on a
standalone basis, however, the ratings consider the sound financial
position of Unicomer shareholders Milady Group and El Puerto de
Liverpool, S.A.B. de C.V. (BBB+/Stable), each of which owns 50% of
the company. Liverpool has a proven track record in retail since
1847 in Mexico. In Fitch's view, the shareholders' solid credit
profiles give flexibility to Grupo Unicomer, as the shareholders'
financial position do not rely on Unicomer's dividend payments.

Milady's operations include real estate developments, department
store chains, all Inditex's franchises in Central America, and a
vertically integrated textile manufacturing and wholesaling
business. Liverpool, a department store business with 287 units and
28 shopping malls in Mexico, had approximately USD7.3 billion in
total revenues during 2021.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Unicomer has about the same scale in number of stores as Grupo
Elektra, S.A.B. de C.V. (BB/Stable), fewer than Americanas S.A.
(BB/Negative) and more than El Puerto de Liverpool S.A.B. de C.V.
(BBB+/Stable). Unicomer's credit portfolio is smaller in size than
Elektra's, and Liverpool's. The company is more geographically
diversified than Elektra, Liverpool and Americanas, which mitigates
Unicomer's operating risk of any individual market. From a
financial profile view, the company maintains lower profitability
margins and higher leverage than its Mexican peers, but it presents
lower gross leverage than its Brazilian peer.

As per Fitch's criteria, Unicomer's applicable Country Ceiling is
'BB-'. At the current rating level, the operating environments (OE)
of the countries where the company has operations do not constrain
the ratings but the OE cap the ratings in the upper 'BB' rating
range.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's Key Assumptions Within Its Rating Case for the Issuer
Include:

- Consolidated revenue growth of 6.4% on average for FY 2023 to FY
2026.

- An EBITDAR margin of 14% on average for FY 2023 to FY 2026.

- Average capex of USD48 million per year for FY 2023 to FY2026.

- No dividend payment in FY 2023 and average annual dividend
distributions of USD17.4 million for FY 2024 to FY 2026.

- Potential inorganic growth in FY 2024.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

- Diversification of operating subsidiaries in countries with lower
sovereign risk.

- Consolidated adjusted net leverage close to 4.0x on a sustained
basis.

- Retail-only adjusted net leverage close to 3.5x on a sustained
basis.

- Maintained credit quality of the portfolio and significant
reduction in its current maturities, resulting in a consistent
ratio of cash plus CFFO/short-term debt of 1.0x.

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

- Sustained deterioration in overdue accounts from the consumer
finance business.

- A significant reduction in cash flow generation that results in
sustained negative FCF margin.

- Further debt-financed acquisition activity resulting in a
consolidated net adjusted debt/EBITDAR above 5.0x.

- Retail-only net adjusted leverage above 4.5x on a sustained
basis.

- Deterioration of liquidity compared with short-term debt.

- Sustained deterioration in the operating environment of countries
where the company operates.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Adequate Liquidity:

Unicomer reported total debt of USD865 million, as of Sept. 30,
2022, of which USD255 million was short-term. This level of
short-term debt compares with USD80 million of cash and marketable
securities and a short-term credit receivables portfolio of USD520
million.

Fitch believes Unicomer's liquidity cushion of cash on hand and
operating cash flows coupled with its portfolio of receivables will
be sufficient to cover short-term debt. The liquidity ratio,
measured as cash and marketable securities over short-term debt,
was 0.3x as of Sept. 30, 2022. When including short-term account
receivables in the calculation, the ratio increases to 2.4x.

ISSUER PROFILE

Grupo Unicomer Co. Ltd. (Unicomer) is a leading retailer of durable
consumer goods with operations in 26 countries across Central
America, South America and the Caribbean. The company operates
1,202 points of sales and 4.2 million square feet of retail space
with different brands.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

   Entity/Debt             Rating            Prior
   -----------             ------            -----
Grupo Unicomer
Corp.             LT IDR    BB- Affirmed       BB-
                  LC LT IDR BB- Affirmed       BB-

   senior
   unsecured      LT        BB- Affirmed       BB-



=============
J A M A I C A
=============

TRANSJAMAICAN HIGHWAY: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Rating on Sr. Sec. Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed TransJamaican Highway Limited's (TJH)
senior secured notes at 'BB-'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.

RATING RATIONALE

The rating reflects the stability and resiliency of a commuting
asset strategically located in the outskirts of Kingston, Jamaica's
capital city. The rating is also supported by a satisfactory
rate-setting mechanism, which allows tariffs to be adjusted
annually by U.S. inflation and the variations in foreign-currency
(FX) rate between the Jamaican dollar (JMD) and the U.S. dollar
(USD). Debt is senior secured, with typical project finance
features that include limitations on additional indebtedness.

Rating case minimum and average debt service coverage ratio (DSCR)
are at 1.8x in 2035 and 2.2x, respectively, which are viewed as
strong for the rating category according to applicable criteria.
The transaction presents robust break-even values for its most
important variables and no dependency on traffic growth in order to
repay the rated debt. Furthermore, even though the credit profile
withstands domestic economic shocks beyond those observed between
2008-2014 when the Jamaican economy deeply deteriorated, the
transaction is ultimately capped at Jamaica's Country Ceiling of
'BB-' because of transfer and convertibility risk.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Strategically Located Essential Asset [Revenue Risk - Volume:
Midrange]:

The toll road is the main link between the capital city of Jamaica,
Kingston, and other populated urban and industrial centers
including the cities of Portmore and May Pen. The asset is
currently the only high-speed roadway serving the western part of
Kingston's metropolitan area, with an estimated population of 1.4
million people along the corridor. Growth prospects in the long
term are underpinned by its position as a strategic asset for the
country, along with the fact that motorization rates in Jamaica are
still low, so there is potential to increase.

Adequate Rate Adjustment Mechanism [Revenue Risk - Price:
Midrange]:

Toll rates are adjusted annually using an escalation formula based
on the U.S. CPI and the FX rate (USD/JMD) evolution, plus an
additional 1% until the foreign debt is repaid in full, in
accordance with the maximum capped toll level of that period, with
additional increases if USD/JMD exchange rate depreciates by more
than 10% intra-period. TJH is allowed to annually increase toll
rates, but any change needs to be authorized by the roll regulator.
If the toll regulator does not authorize such toll rates, the
concessionaire would need to be compensated for the lost revenue.
Fitch believes it is unlikely that the regulator would choose to
cut prices given the toll rates' updated track record since 2009.

Fully Operational Asset [Infrastructure Development & Renewal:
Midrange]:

The toll road has been fully operational, with its four toll
plazas, since 2012. It benefits from oversight from an independent
engineer who provides financial annual reviews of the budget and
the O&M plan and a commentary of the six succeeding semesters. The
structure holds a six-month operations and maintenance reserve
account, as well as a major maintenance reserve account funded with
100% of the costs to be carried out in the next 12 months, 50% in
the next 13 to 24 months and 25% in the next 25 to 36 months. The
assessment on this attribute is somewhat limited by the hand back
requirements as included in the concession, which oblige the
concessionaire to return the project to the grantor in a good and
operable condition.

TJH has executed an amendment to the concession agreement in which
the tenor could be renewed, at any time during 2034, at TJH's
request for an additional 35 years. With this updated agreement,
the hand back requirements will fall after the maturity of the
notes. Nonetheless, Fitch's financial projections assume such
expenses will be made in 2035-2036, given the concession currently
ends in 2036.

Typical Debt Structure [Debt Structure: Midrange]:

The notes are senior, fully amortizing, fixed-rate and with typical
project finance covenants. There is a six-month debt service
reserve account and a lock-up trigger at a 1.25x backward- and
forward-looking DSCR. No FX risk is anticipated given the formula
for toll rates increase captures movements in the JMD/USD exchange
rate.

Financial Profile

Fitch's Base Case, the project yields a minimum and average DSCR of
2.2x in 2023 and 2.5x. Fitch's Rating Case, the project yields a
minimum and average DSCR of 1.8x in 2035 and 2.2x, respectively,
which is strong for the rating category under the indicative
thresholds of the applicable Fitch criteria, but ultimately
constrained by Jamaica's Country Ceiling because of transfer and
convertibility risk.

PEER GROUP

The closest project in the region is Autopistas del Sol, S.A. (AdS;
B/Stable) in Costa Rica. AdS and TJH are similar, as both are
strong commuting assets within their respective country's capital
cities. They also share all attributes at the Midrange level, but
the difference in ratings comes from AdS's lower metrics (average
DSCR of 1.2x versus 2.2x of TJH under Fitch's rating case).

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

- Negative rating action on Jamaica's Country Ceiling;

- Nil or negative traffic growth rate for a sustained period.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

- Positive rating action on Jamaica's Country Ceiling.

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

TJH's concession stretches for 49.9km, connecting Kingston with May
Pen, and is divided in two fully operational corridors. The first
corridor stretches between Kingston and May Pen, with three toll
plazas: Spanish Town, Vineyards and May Pen. The other corridor,
also called the Portmore Causeway, begins on Marcus Garvey Drive in
Kingston and end on Dyke Road in Portmore. The toll road is the
largest infrastructure project in Jamaica. In 2020, TJH issued
senior secured debt for USD225 million through a fully amortizing
bond maturing in 2036 with a fixed 5.75% coupon rate.

CREDIT UPDATE

In 2021, annual average daily traffic (AADT) was 62,747 vehicles,
representing an 11.5% annual growth from 2020 and a 98% recovery
from 2019 levels and in line with Fitch's rating case expectation.
Looking at each of the toll plazas, we see that the road tranche
with the higher commuter's vocation, Portmore, was the one with the
slowest recovery, while the rest of the sections with greater
commercial traffic and lesser mobility restrictions had a greater
resilience and a faster recovery. According to the concessionaire,
most social distancing restrictions were lifted since late 2021.

As of September 2022, AADT performance has been strong reflected in
a 106% recovery from 2019 and above both its base and rating case
expectations of 98% and 95%, respectively, for the whole year.
Considering that seasonality impacts positively the last quarter
volumes, the whole year figures are likely to finish even stronger.
According to the concessionaire, this sustained strong performance
is explained by the national economy recovery specially in the
tourism sector, that is currently at historic highs.

Tariff increases were applied by July of 2022 resulting in a
weighted average annual increase of 16.4%, above Fitch's rating
case that considered significantly lower inflation. In terms of
revenue, the project collected USD52.7 million during 2021, 16.2%
more than the previous year, and in line with Fitch's rating case
expectations. As the traffic mix has remained practically unchanged
since the beginning of the pandemic, the strong performance is
explained by the traffic and tariff growth. From January to
September 2022, toll revenue was USD47.3million, 26.8% compared to
the same period of 2021 also as a result of the traffic performance
and tariff increases.

For the one-year period ending in September 2022, overall O&M
expenses were USD23.4 million, and were above Fitch rating case
projections while the difference was mainly explained due to the
variable component of the O&M fees, given higher traffic,
subcontracted with Jamaican Infrastructure Operator Limited (JIO)
whose status is about to change to become fully owned by TJH as it
is explained below. Regarding capex, during the same period, it
reached USD3.4 million, mildly below both Fitch cases given that in
its previous review the agency considered a partial deferral of the
lifecycle budget that did not happen in the end.

Fitch is aware that TJH is completing a process to acquire its
operator, JIO, including amendments to the O&M contract to reduce
the overall operator fees to the project. Although the agency
considers that the effect on net cashflows would be positive given
lower expenses, Fitch deems it necessary to apply these changes to
its projections to have the signed O&M amended contract along with
a track record showing the operator can comply with its contractual
obligations under the new contract fees. Likewise, given TJH's is
currently capped to Jamaica's country ceiling, this change in its
projections would be credit neutral.

Finally, from October 2021 to September 2022, the effect of
higher-than-expected toll revenues was offset by the
underestimation of O&M expenses resulting in lower CFADS and a DSCR
of 2.1x, slightly below Fitch rating case expectations of 2.2x.

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Fitch's base case assumes a CAGR from 2023 to 2027 of 2.7%, while
afterwards it assumes a CAGR of 2.2% from 2028 to 2036. The cost
profile assumed is in line with the sponsor's original assumptions
plus a 5% increase. US inflation was assumed at 7.0% in 2022, 3.6%
in 2023, 2.7% in 2024, and 2.0% from 2025 and onwards. Jamaican
inflation was assumed at 10.2% in 2022, 6.0% in 2023, 4.9% in 2024,
and 5.0% from 2025 and onwards Under this scenario, the minimum and
average DSCR are 2.2x and 2.5x, respectively.

Fitch's rating case assumes a CAGR from 2023 to 2027 of 1.7%, while
afterwards it assumes a CAGR of 1.2% from 2028 to 2036. Operating,
general and administrative, and maintenance budgeted expenses are
increased by 7.5% throughout the tenor of the debt. Inflation
assumptions are as in the base case. Rating case metrics are
slightly weaker than that of the base case, with minimum and
average DSCR of 1.8x in 2035 and 2.2x, respectively.

The transaction presents robust break-even values for its most
important variables and little dependency on traffic growth in
order to repay the rated debt, supporting the project rating above
the sovereign rating.

SECURITY

An onshore all assets debenture providing for (subject to certain
exceptions and limitations) a first priority security interest in
all present and after-acquired personal property of the Issuer
including all Project documents to which it is party, including the
Concession Agreement, and the local accounts, and further providing
for an assignment of the benefit of the Concession Agreement and
the other project documents; an assignment of the concession
agreement providing for a collateral assignment of the Issuer's
interest in the Concession Agreement; an onshore security trust
deed providing for the appointment of the local trustee and for the
transaction security to be held on trust for the Secured Parties;
the offshore accounts under the Indenture Trustee.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

   Entity/Debt             Rating          Prior
   -----------             ------          -----
TransJamaican
Highway Limited


   TransJamaican
   Highway Limited/
   Senior Secured
   Notes/1 LT           LT BB-  Affirmed     BB-



===============
X X X X X X X X
===============

LATIN AMERICA: Venezuelan Migrants Bring Economic Opportunity
-------------------------------------------------------------
Marco Arena, Emilio Fernandez Corugedo, Jaime Guajardo, and Juan
Francisco Yepez at imf.org reports that by promptly integrating
migrants, the economies of host countries stand to increase their
GDP by as much as 4.5 percentage points by 2030.

More than 7 million Venezuelans have fled the country since 2015,
with 6 million settling in other Latin American countries. The
region's largest migration episode in history is driven by the
collapse of the country's economy, which has left Venezuelans
struggling to meet their basic needs.

Between 2013 and 2021, Venezuela's gross domestic product is
estimated to have declined by more than 75 percent, the most for a
country not at war in the last 50 years. The COVID-19 pandemic
compounded the country's economic and humanitarian crisis, and in
2020 more than 95 percent of Venezuelans were living below the
poverty line.

The arrival of Venezuelans seeking better lives has strained the
economies -- and societies -- of Latin American host countries that
are already balancing tight budgets, especially since the
pandemic.

Colombia, which has received the most Venezuelan migrants,
estimated spending about $600 per migrant in 2019. This covered
humanitarian aid, healthcare, childcare, education, housing, and
job-search support. With more than 2 million arrivals, this
translates into $1.3 billion in assistance. In 2019, this cost
peaked at 0.5 percent of Colombia's GDP.

In the long term, however, this investment has the potential to
increase GDP in host countries by up to 4.5 percentage points by
2030, as we find in our latest research on the spillovers from
Venezuela's migration.

To reap the benefits from migration, host countries need to
integrate the new arrivals into the formal labor force-and
society-by promptly offering them work permits and access to
education and healthcare.

                          Migration Flows

After a brief interruption during the pandemic, when many countries
closed their borders, migration from Venezuela has resumed and is
expected to continue in the coming years, although at a slower
pace.

We estimate that Venezuelan migrants will number around 8.4 million
by 2025 -- more than 25 percent of the country's population in
2015.

The characteristics of migrants have evolved as the economic crisis
intensified. The first wave of migrants were mostly professionals
with high levels of education. The second consisted of middle-class
young people with a university degree. Since the economy collapsed
in 2017-2018, migrants have tended to be from low-income households
and with lower levels of education.

Overall, the demographic profile of Venezuela's migrants is like
that of the local population in host countries. Almost two-thirds
are of working age and almost half are female.

Most have settled in other Latin American countries, while some
have migrated to North America and Europe, mainly the US and
Spain.

While Colombia remains the main destination, Chile, Ecuador, and
Peru have also received sizable flows, with their combined number
of migrants exceeding 2 million, more than 3 percent of the local
population on average.

                     Effect on Labor Markets

Our research finds that Venezuelan migrants -- many of them more
educated than the local populations -- face higher unemployment,
are more likely to initially work in the informal sector, and earn
less than the local workers.

We didn't find evidence that migrants are displacing domestic
workers, although we have seen downward pressure on wages in the
informal sector.

The wage gap between domestic and migrant workers grows with the
level of education, which suggests a misallocation of human
capital-workers' skills, knowledge, and expertise-as educated
migrants tend to only find unskilled jobs. On average, domestic
workers earn about 30 percent more than migrants.

                        Cost and Benefits

Our analysis finds that providing migrants with humanitarian
assistance and access to public services carries a sizable fiscal
cost and puts pressure on the budgets of host countries, as the
Colombia example shows.

But the analysis also identifies large medium-term gains in
productivity and growth resulting from an increase in the labor
force and better alignment of migrants' human capital with jobs.
These gains are greater for countries that receive larger and more
educated migrant flows relative to the domestic population.

We estimate that, with the right support and integration policies,
migration from Venezuela has the potential to increase real GDP in
Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and Chile by 2.5 to 4.5 percentage points
relative to a no-migration baseline by 2030.

We also project that the cost of integrating migrants would narrow
over time as migrants join the labor force, increasing economic
activity and expanding the tax base.

                          Continued Support

Early in the migration crisis, countries in Latin America welcomed
Venezuelan migrants and provided support in the form of visa
waivers, mobility cards, and access to humanitarian assistance,
healthcare, education, and childcare. Migrants also received work
permits and credentials to help them integrate into the labor
market.

However, in 2018 and 2019, we saw a shift in policies as migration
flows intensified. While some countries introduced new programs to
facilitate the integration of migrants, others made it harder for
Venezuelans to enter by requiring additional documentation.

Countries should continue supporting migrants and helping them
integrate into the formal sector so they can find jobs that are in
line with their human capital and increase productivity in the
economy.

This will require improving transitional arrangements and asylum
systems, bringing in migrants into the health and education
systems, and formalizing migrant workers by giving them work
permits and accelerating the accreditation of skills and
education.

To cover the costs of implementing these policies, countries should
seek help from donors and international institutions. The IMF is
analyzing the impact of migration and coordinating with the United
Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and other relevant agencies
to help countries access funding sources.

Countries in the region should also agree on a coordinated response
to the migration crisis, in which each one contributes its fair
share to the support and integration of migrants.



                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.

Copyright 2022.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2746.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.

Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year,
delivered via e-mail.  Additional e-mail subscriptions for members
of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each.  For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
.


                  * * * End of Transmission * * *