/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/221213.mbx        T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Tuesday, December 13, 2022, Vol. 23, No. 242

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

ARGENTINA: UCA Report Puts Argentina's Poverty Rate at 43.1%


B O L I V I A

BOLIVIA: IDB OKs $50M Loan to Improve Road Connections in La Paz


B R A Z I L

BRAZIL: Has The Highest Real Interest Rates in The World
MRS LOGISTICA: Fitch Affirms Foreign Currency IDR at 'BB'


C O S T A   R I C A

BAC SAN JOSE 2020-1: Fitch Affirms LT Rating at BB+, Outlook Stable


D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C

AES ANDRES: Fitch Affirms BB- Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Stable
[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Has the Strongest Economic Recovery in 2023


G U Y A N A

GUYANA: IDB OKs US$97M Loan to Strengthen Health Services


J A M A I C A

JAMAICA: Net International Reserves Rose in November


T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O

CL FIN'L: Won't Survive Liquidation, Says CLICO Exec. Chair

                           - - - - -


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A R G E N T I N A
=================

ARGENTINA: UCA Report Puts Argentina's Poverty Rate at 43.1%
------------------------------------------------------------
Buenos Aires Times reports that around 17 million people in
Argentina are poor, according to the latest figures from the widely
respected Observatorio de la Deuda Social of the Universidad
Catolica Argentina (Social Debt Observatory of the Catholic
University of Argentina, UCA).

In its annual report, the UCA body concluded that 43.1 percent of
the population are living below the poverty line, according to
Buenos Aires Times.  Extreme poverty, according to the observatory,
affects 8.1 percent or some 8.5 million people, the report notes.

The study from UCA's observatory underlined that poverty has grown
by 10 percentage points according to its data over the past decade,
the report relays.

It observed that poverty is now affecting middle-class and
lower-class workers substantially due to their vulnerability to
"crises, lack of work and inflation," while the nation's poorest
were reliant on "an informal subsistence economy, which does not
get them out of poverty, but at least alleviates it," the report
discloses.

Most strikingly, the UCA report warns that without existing welfare
support packages, poverty would rise to affect 50 percent of the
population with extreme poverty rising to 20 percent, the report
relays.  According to the study, around 40 percent of households
receive some form of state assistance, the report notes.

The profile of the Observatorio de la Deuda Social rose
considerably during the administration of former president Cristina
Fernandez de Kirchner, when official statistics supplied by the
INDEC national statistics bureau became unreliable, the report
discloses.  The government body's official poverty survey is due to
be published next March, the report relays.  In September, it
reported a rate of 36.5 percent for the first half of 2022, the
report notes.

According to the report, Argentina's poverty rate is increasing,
with "sectors from the lower middle class forming a new layer of
new poor," the report relays.

"Neither economic liberalisation policies nor social assistance
policies are sufficient on their own to promote a balanced
development model in the productive and social spheres, with the
capacity to include productive agents, labour sectors and the state
in the same political-economic project, integrating the socially
and labour-intensive society of the excluded into the social
model," said the UCA report, the report says.

According to its authors, taking into account data on access to
health, education, food, housing, public services, work and healthy
habitat, "between 2010 and 2022, 70 percent of the population was
affected in at least one of these fundamental rights," the report
notes.

"In population terms, this last figure implies that at least 13
million Argentines suffer from severe exclusion in access to goods
and services of social inclusion," said the report, Buenos Aires
Times relays.

If inflation were to fall to single digits, poverty would fall by
10 to 15 percentage points, UCA said. "It is not the increase in
prices but the non-creation of new jobs, the deterioration of
existing jobs and the fall in salaries, which generates
imbalances," the report reads, Buenos Aires Times notes.

In terms of employment figures, they detail that "only 40 percent
of the economically active population has a decent or dignified
job, either through salaried or non-salaried employment." This
"strong labor segmentation is closely linked to chronic poverty and
its increase over more than a decade," said the study, Buenos Aires
Times discloses.

"One particularity of the current economic cycle (post-Covid-19
pandemic) is that there is significant employment growth, but no
recovery in labour income," it concluded, the report adds.

                     About Argentina

Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South America. Its capital is Buenos Aires. Alberto Angel
Fernandez is the current president of Argentina after winning
the October 2019 general election. He succeeded Mauricio
Macri in the position.

Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America.  The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however,
its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.

Last March 25, 2022, Argentina finalized agreement with the IMF
for a new USD44 billion Extended Funding Facility (EFF) intended
to fund USD40 billion in looming repayments of the defunct
Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), with an extra USD4 billion in up-front
net financing. This has averted the risk of a default to the IMF
and is facilitating a parallel rescheduling of Paris Club debt.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on
Nov. 18, 2022, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'CCC+/C' foreign
currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina. S&P lowered the
long-term local currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC-' from
'CCC+' and the national scale rating to 'raCCC+' from 'raBBB-'.
S&P also affirmed its 'C' short-term local currency rating.
The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. S&P's 'CCC+'
transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged.

Last April 14, 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'CCC'.
Fitch said Argentina's 'CCC' ratings reflect weak external
liquidity and pronounced macroeconomic imbalances that undermine
debt repayment capacity, and uncertainty regarding how much
progress can be made on these issues under a new IMF program.
On July 19, 2022, Fitch Ratings placed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and Long-Term Local
Currency IDR Under Criteria Observation (UCO) following the
conversion of the agency's Exposure Draft: Sovereign Rating
Criteria to final criteria. The UCO assignment indicates that
ratings may change as a direct result of the final criteria. It
does not indicate a change in the underlying credit profile, nor
does it affect existing Rating Outlooks.

Moody's credit rating for Argentina was last set at Ca on
Sept. 28, 2020.

DBRS has also confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency
Issuer Rating at CCC and Long-Term Local Currency Issuer Rating at
CCC (high) on July 21, 2022.




=============
B O L I V I A
=============

BOLIVIA: IDB OKs $50M Loan to Improve Road Connections in La Paz
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) approved a $50 million
loan to better connect the Department of La Paz and further
integrate its economy. This funding will be used to improve and
pave a 33.1 kilometer stretch of Highway RVF19
Botijlaca-Caquiaviri, lowering travel costs and times.

With a focus on safety, sustainability, and inclusion, the program
will also implement better road safety standards, and the roadworks
will be engineered to meet climate-resilient design standards.

Around 26,000 citizens and 6,552 inhabitants of the project area
(Botijlaca-Caquiaviri) will directly benefit from better road
connections along this initial corridor that will link up the
municipalities of Caquiaviri, Comanche, Charaña and San Andrés de
Machaca, in addition to providing access to the Peruvian border.
The highway runs parallel to the Nazacara-Hito IV corridor.

The financing will also cover activities to support institutions
and boost road maintenance micro enterprises, as well as products
designed to narrow socioeconomic gaps.

Maintaining and renovating Bolivia's road infrastructure is crucial
to strengthening its economy and closing socioeconomic gaps. More
than 80% of the country's exports are by road. These land routes
provide inter-urban and rural areas with their only physical means
of accessing goods and services.

The total program cost is $58 million, of which $50 million will be
financed by the IDB and $8 million will be funded as a local
contribution. The loan will be disbursed over a period of five
years, with a 20-year repayment term, a 10.5-year grace period, and
an interest rate based on the Secured Overnight Financing Rate
(SOFR).

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on
Dec. 8, 2022, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term sovereign
credit ratings on Bolivia to 'B' from 'B+'. The outlook on the
long-term ratings is stable. At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'B'
short-term foreign and local currency ratings. S&P revised down
Bolivia's transfer and convertibility assessment to 'B' from 'B+'




===========
B R A Z I L
===========

BRAZIL: Has The Highest Real Interest Rates in The World
--------------------------------------------------------
Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that Brazil has the
highest real interest rates in the world, according to a ranking
published by the asset manager Infinity Asset.  It is in 1st place
in a list made with 40 countries, according to Rio Times Online.

The real interest rates are those corrected by inflation, the
report notes.  Infinity drew the projection for the next 12 months,
which is the "ex-ante" calculation, the report relays.

In December 2021, the estimated Brazilian real interest rates were
5.03%, below Turkey's (5.83%), the report discloses.

The chief economist of Austin Rating, Alex Agostini, calculated
that the rate would be 7.8% in the next 12 months, starting in
December, the report adds.

                        About Brazil

Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world and third largest
in the Americas.  Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the 2022
Brazilian general election. He will be sworn in on January 1, 2023,

as the 39th president of Brazil, succeeding Jair Bolsonaro.

In July 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating at 'BB-' and revised the Rating
Outlook to Stable from Negative.  In June 2022, S&P Global
Ratings also affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term foreign and
local currency sovereign credit ratings on Brazil.  Moody's, in
April 2022, affirmed Brazil's long-term Ba2 issuer ratings and
senior unsecured bond ratings, (P)Ba2 senior unsecured shelf
ratings, and maintained the stable outlook.  On the other had,
DBRS, in August 2022, confirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign and
Local Currency Issuer Ratings at BB (low).

MRS LOGISTICA: Fitch Affirms Foreign Currency IDR at 'BB'
---------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed MRS Logistica S.A.'s (MRS) Long-Term
Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB', Long-Term
Local Currency IDR at 'BBB-' and Long-Term National Scale Rating at
'AAA(bra)'. In addition, Fitch has affirmed the Long-Term National
Rating for MRS's unsecured debentures and promissory notes at
'AAA(bra)'. The Rating Outlook for the corporate ratings is
Stable.

The ratings reflect MRS's mature railroad operation, strong and
resilient operational cash generation and margins, conservative
capital structure, and adequate liquidity, even during the large
investment period required by the early concession contract
renewal. The company's business model consists of captive demand
for transportation, take-or-pay protection clauses for most of its
contracts and well-defined tariff model. MRS's Foreign Currency IDR
is constrained by Brazil's 'BB' Country Ceiling.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Solid Business Profile: MRS runs a mature and important railway
concession in Brazil that expires in 2056. It benefits from its
prominent position as sole provider of railway transportation for
large clients, which are also the company's major shareholders. Its
network connects Brazil's center region to the most important ports
in the southeast region. The competition from other transportation
modes is marginal, enhancing the company's cash flow
predictability. Railway transportation in Brazil enjoys solid
demand, low competition among operators, high barriers to entry and
medium to high profitability. These advantages, along with the
great opportunities to enhance the country's transportation
infrastructure, make for a favorable credit environment for
Brazilian railway companies.

Captive Clients: Captive clients demand enforceable take or pay
clauses for most of MRS contracts, and positive long-term industry
fundamentals benefit the ratings. The company's main individual
shareholder is Mineracoes Brasileiras Reunidas S.A. (MBR), which is
controlled by Vale (Foreign and Local Currency IDR BBB/Stable). In
2021, MBR and Vale were responsible for almost half of MRS's
revenues. MBR and Vale's operations, as well as those of its other
main shareholders, such as CSN (37.2%), Usiminas (11.1%) and Gerdau
(1.3%), are heavily dependent on MRS's iron ore cargo capacity.
Captive cargo responds for about 60% of total volume transported by
MRS.

Shareholder Agreement Protects Profitability: MRS's shareholder
agreement provides a tariff model that protects the company's
profitability and cash flow generation capacity. In recent years,
MRS's operating cash flow generation has been resilient against
strong economic downturns and unfavorable exchange rate movements,
fuel and iron ore prices. The tariff model establishes, on an
annual basis, freight rates for each captive client, through a
pre-defined cargo volume and a return target over equity ratio.
Furthermore, the model determines tariff adjustments on a monthly
basis in the event of substantial cost increases, chiefly regarding
fuel. This operating model has proven efficient over many years,
and has translated into high EBTIDA margin resilience in the
40%-45% range over the cycles.

Concession Renewal is Neutral to Ratings: Fitch considers that
MRS's early concession contract renewal in July 2022, for an
additional 30 years, has limited impact on company's financial
profile over the medium term. MRS stands robust balance sheet and
strong financial flexibility to face the additional capex
obligation without materially deteriorate its capital structure and
liquidity. The issuer's estimated additional capex is BRL11 billion
within the contract period - BRL6.0 billion of infrastructure
construction and BRL5.0 billion of rolling stocks - and new grant
fee of approximately BRL56 million per year. The investments should
not result in relevant volumes increases, as only 20% of the
additional construction capex relates to capacity expansion, while
80% is to solve urban conflicts and public interests. The
concession renewal guarantees business predictability for a longer
period.

Negative FCF: MRS should continue to report consistent operating
cash flow generation to support part of the large capex plan during
the rating cycle. The company's EBITDA should gradually increase,
benefiting from increases in captive and non-captive freight
orders, resulted from the infrastructure and rolling cars capex
completion. Fitch's base case foresees volumes to reach 176 million
tons (TUs) in 2022 and 188 million TUs in 2023, while average
tariff should range BRL31-33/ton in that period. The base case
scenario considers MRS's EBITDA of BRL2.3 billion and cash flow
from operations (CFFO) of BRL1.1 billion in 2022, and BRL2.5
billion and BRL1.7 billion in 2023, respectively. Following the
aggressive capex required by the concession contract, MRS's FCF
should be significantly negative over the rating horizon, totaling
BRL5.9 billion negative up to 2025. Investments should reach
BRL12.3 billion from 2022 to 2025, being BRL6.7 billion to attend
the concession renewal requirements. CFFO should finance around
55%-60% of the capex in this period.

Leverage to Increase, Still Conservative: MRS's net debt should
increase substantially to finance the large negative FCF during the
rating cycle. Fitch's rating case foresees net debt will increase
by BRL5.4 billion up to 2025, being BL1.6 billion in the 4Q22 and
2023. During the last five years, MRS's net debt/EBITDA was very
conservative, around 1.5x, which prepared the company to face the
aggressive capex plan. Net leverage should increase up to 2.3x
during the rating period, still conservative, and consistent with
current ratings. The company should also report low funds from
operations (FFO)-adjusted net leverage within the 2.0x-2.7x range.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

MRS rating is below those of the other mature rail companies in the
U.S. and Canada, which are generally rated in the mid 'BBB' to low
'A' range. MRS's operations are concentrated solely in Brazil, and
its captive clients (shareholders) are rated 'BBB' or below.
Compared with other Brazilian railroads, MRS is the best positioned
based on consistent operating cash flow generation, relatively flat
operating margins, historical positive FCF, low leverage and sound
liquidity. Rumo (BB+/AAA(bra)/Stable) and VLI (NR/AAA(bra)/Stable)
present negative FCF trends from substantial capex plans that need
to be financed, and higher leverage, which is compatible with their
growth momentum.

A broader comparison shows MRS with lower leverage metrics than
other large rail companies, such as Norfolk Southern, Canadian
Pacific and Kansas City Southern. MRS also exhibits operating
margins in line with Brazilian railroads. Solid credit metrics are
partially offset by MRS's geographic concentration compared with
other large world rail companies, which constrains the IDRs. MRS's
'BB'/Outlook Stable Foreign Currency IDR is capped by Brazil's
Country Ceiling, due to its total concentration in that country.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

- Volumes of heavy haul to increase by 10% per year in 2023 and
2024;

- Volumes of general cargo to increase by 1.6% in 2023 and 4.0% in
2024;

- Tariffs increase by inflation;

- Capex of BRL10.0 billion from 2023 to 2025;

- Payout of 25% of net income.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

- Improvements in cargo diversification;

- Material improvement in credit quality of its major clients
and/or shareholders combined with positive rating actions on
Brazil's sovereign IDR (BB-/Stable);

- Positive actions toward the sovereign rating may lead to positive
actions regarding MRS's Foreign Currency IDR, currently limited by
the Brazilian Country Celling.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

- Deterioration of EBITDA margins to lower than 35% on a
sustainable basis;

- Net debt/EBITDA ratios consistently above 3.0x;

- Severe deterioration of credit quality of its major clients
and/or shareholders;

- A downgrade of Brazil's sovereign rating and of the country
ceiling could lead to a negative rating action regarding MRS's
Foreign and Local Currency IDRs.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Healthy Liquidity: MRS's liquidity profile is satisfactory,
supported by adequate cash position and manageable debt
amortization schedule. As of September 2022, MRS's cash and
marketable securities reached BRL1.4 billion, which covered
short-term debt of BRL1.0 billion. Fitch expects MRS's cash to
remain around BRL700 million by the end of the year, and range from
BRL500 million to BRL900 million over the next three years,
covering satisfactorily short-term debt.

MRS benefits from proven access to credit and equity markets in
order to adequately finance its large investments plan and support
negative FCF. As of Sept. 30, 2022, MRS's total debt was BRL4.5
billion, comprised of BRL2.8 billion in debentures (62%); BRL883
million in outstanding debt with Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento
Economico e Social (BNDES; 20%); and other long-term credit.

ISSUER PROFILE

MRS is a Brazilian railroad concessionaire, which operates the
mature Southeastern stretch of the country's railnet. MRS's cargo
includes iron ore, coal, coke (60% of the total volume) and general
cargo, including agricultural, siderurgy and cement products (40%
of total volume).

SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS

Net derivatives adjusted to debt. D&A removed from costs and
allocated as other operating expenses. Assets sales excluded from
EBITDA account.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

   Entity/Debt             Rating                      Prior
   -----------             ------                      -----
MRS Logistica S.A.    LT IDR    BB       Affirmed        BB
                      LC LT IDR BBB-     Affirmed       BBB-
                      Natl LT   AAA(bra) Affirmed   AAA(bra)

   senior unsecured   Natl LT   AAA(bra) Affirmed   AAA(bra)



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C O S T A   R I C A
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BAC SAN JOSE 2020-1: Fitch Affirms LT Rating at BB+, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed BAC San Jose DPR Funding Ltd's series
2020-1 loans at 'BB+'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.

   Entity/Debt        Rating         Prior
   -----------        ------         -----
BAC San Jose
DPR Funding Ltd

   2020-1          LT BB+  Affirmed    BB+

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

The transaction is backed by existing and future U.S.
dollar-denominated diversified payment rights (DPRs) originated by
Banco BAC San Jose, S.A. (BAC SJ). The majority of DPRs are
processed by designated depository banks (DDBs) that have signed
Acknowledgement Agreements (AAs), irrevocably obligating them to
make payments to an account controlled by the transaction trustee.

Fitch's ratings address the timely payment of P&I on a quarterly
basis.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

FF Rating Driven by Originator's Credit Quality: The ratings of the
future flow transactions are tied to the credit quality of the
originator, Banco BAC San Jose, S.A. (BAC San Jose). On July 21,
2022, Fitch affirmed BAC San Jose's Long-Term Local Currency Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-'. Fitch also affirmed BAC San Jose's
Viability Rating (VR) at 'b' and the Shareholder Support Rating
(SSR) at 'b+'. The Rating Outlook remains Stable

Strong Going Concern Assessment (GCA): Fitch uses a GCA score to
gauge the likelihood that the originator of a future flow
transaction will stay in operation through the transaction's life.
Fitch assigned a GCA score of 'GC2' to BAC San Jose, which reflects
the bank's systemic importance within the Costa Rican banking
system, being the third largest bank in the country by assets and
the largest private bank in the country. Furthermore, Fitch deems
BAC San Jose as strategically important to BAC International Bank,
Inc. (BIB) and considers BIB's ability and propensity to provide
support if needed.

Factor Limiting Notching Differential: The 'GC2' score allows for a
maximum rating uplift of four notches from the bank's IDR pursuant
to Fitch's future flow methodology. However, the uplift is tempered
to two notches given the maximum uplift is only applied to
transactions with originators that are rated in the lower end of
the rating scale.

Moderate Future Flow Debt Relative to Balance Sheet: Future flow
debt represents approximately 2.1% of BAC San Jose's total funding
and 21.1% of non-deposit funding when considering the current
outstanding balance of the program ($150 million) as of Oct. 2022
and utilizing September 2022 financials. While Fitch considers
these ratios small enough to differentiate from BAC San Jose's
Long-Term Local Currency IDR, an increase in future flow debt size
could constrain the transaction ratings.

Coverage Levels Commensurate with Assigned Rating: When considering
average rolling quarterly DDB flows over the past five years
(November 2017 - October 2022) and the maximum periodic debt
service over the life of the program, Fitch's projected quarterly
debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) is 148.1x. Moreover, the
transaction can withstand a drop in flows of approximately 99.3%
and still cover the maximum quarterly debt service obligations.
Nevertheless, Fitch will continue to monitor the performance of the
flows, as potential economic pressures could negatively impact the
assigned rating.

Sovereign/Diversion Risks Reduced: The structure mitigates certain
sovereign risks by keeping cash flows offshore until scheduled debt
service is paid to investors, allowing the transactions to be rated
above Costa Rica's country ceiling. Fitch believes diversion risk
is partially mitigated by the AAs executed by the four DDBs
processing the vast majority of DPR flows.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

- The transaction ratings are sensitive to changes in the credit
quality of BAC San Jose, which in turn is sensitive to changes in
the credit quality of Costa Rica and its OE. A deterioration of the
credit quality of BAC San Jose by one notch is likely to pose a
constraint to the rating of the transaction from its current
level;

- The transaction ratings are sensitive to the DPR business line's
ability to continue operating, as reflected by the GCA score and a
change in Fitch's view on the bank's GCA score can lead to a change
in the transaction's rating. Additionally, the transaction rating
is sensitive to the performance of the securitized business line.
The expected quarterly DSCR is approximately 148.1x, and should
therefore withstand a significant decline in cash flows in the
absence of other issues. However, significant declines in flows
could lead to a negative rating action. Any changes in these
variables will be analyzed in a rating committee to assess the
possible impact on the transaction ratings.

- No company is immune to the economic and political conditions of
its home country. Political risks and the potential for sovereign
interference may increase as a sovereign's rating is downgraded.
However, the underlying structure and transaction enhancements
mitigate these risks to a level consistent with the assigned
rating.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive

rating action/upgrade:

- The main constraint to the program rating is the originator's
rating and BAC San Jose's operating environment. If upgraded, Fitch
will consider whether the same uplift could be maintained or if it
should be further tempered in accordance with criteria.

- In September 2022, Fitch revised its "Global Economic Outlook"
forecasts as a result of the European gas crisis, high inflation
and a sharp acceleration in the pace of global monetary policy
tightening. Downside risks have increased and Fitch has published
an assessment of the potential rating and asset performance impact
of a plausible, but worse-than-expected, adverse stagflation
scenario on Fitch's major SF and CVB sub-sectors ("What a
Stagflation Scenario Would Mean for Global Structured Finance").
Fitch expects LatAm's Global Cross-Sector's financial future flow
transactions in the assumed adverse scenario to experience
"Virtually No Impact" indicating a low risk for rating changes.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.



===================================
D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C
===================================

AES ANDRES: Fitch Affirms BB- Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed AES Andres B.V.'s (Andres) Long-Term
Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a Stable
Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed Andres' USD300 million notes due
2028 at 'BB-' and its National Scale rating at 'AA(dom)' with a
Stable Outlook. The ratings consider the combined operating assets
of Andres and Dominican Power Partners (DPP; jointly referred to as
AES Dominicana), which are joint obligors of Andres' USD300 million
notes due 2028.

Andres' ratings reflect a strong linkage to the Dominican
Republic's (BB-/Stable) credit quality due to high government
subsidies, as well as an historically strong balance sheet and a
diversified asset portfolio. The ratings incorporate a weakening in
near-term credit metrics as high commodity (liquid natural gas,
LNG) prices drive a temporary change to the company's operating
profile. Fitch expects leverage should decline following a 2025
peak at 4.1x, assuming a return to a more stable and predictable
contracted structure, in which merchant and LNG sales are
de-emphasized.

A parent and subsidiary relationship exists between AES Andres and
AES Corporation (BBB-/Stable) due to the latter's pledge of shares
in the operating companies, but Fitch rates AES Andres on a
standalone basis, not assuming implicit support from the parent
company.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Weakening Leverage Profile: Fitch expects AES Andres' credit
profile to weaken in 2023 through 2025 due to a temporary reduction
in the company's dispatch of electric generation and cancellation
of its traditional purchased power agreements (PPAs) with the
state-owned public distribution companies (discos). This reduction
is because near-term, the company's new LNG supply contract with
Total, benchmarked to the TTF index, will make electricity
generation highly uneconomical for the discos, contrary to Andres'
historic position as the country's most cost-effective generator.

While Fitch-calculated leverage (debt/EBITDA) should stay favorable
yoy at 2.4x in fiscal 2022, Fitch expects leverage to steadily
increase thereafter as revenues reduce and become dependent on
unpredictable LNG and merchant sales. Leverage will approximate
4.1x by 2025, approaching Fitch's downward rating sensitivity of
4.5x. Fiscal 2022 EBITDA of USD346 million increased 27% yoy fiscal
2021 EBITDA, owing to stronger revenues, but should reduce to an
average USD226 million through 2026, weaker than historic norms.

Expanding Natural Gas Business: Andres operates the country's sole
LNG import terminal, offering regasification, storage, and
transportation infrastructure. In 2023, in lieu of its traditional
PPAs, AES Andres will increase third-party and extraordinary LNG
sales, as well as remain contracted with non-regulated users (NRUs,
which typically average 24% of revenues) and provide merchant spot
and peaking generation to the grid. LNG sales comprised 44% of
fiscal 2021 revenues and are estimated to grow to an average 55% in
2022 and 2023, including extraordinary one-time sales.

Extraordinary sales are being generated by gas purchases through
the current supply contract with BP plc, indexed to NYMEX Henry Hub
(HH), but sold at considerably higher TTF index-linked prices. The
BP supply contract expires in April 2023 and Fitch prices the Total
contract, indexed to TTF, at USD45/million Btu (mmBtu) in 2022 and
2023, USD20 in 2024 and USD10 beyond, much higher than HH prices.
Fitch's base case includes simultaneous contracts with discos via
physical PPAs for generation and capacity through 2025, followed by
a full re-contracting along similar, prior terms.

Dependence on Government Transfers: High energy distribution losses
have averaged a chronic 33% due to low collection rates and
important subsidies for end-users. This has created a strong
dependence on government transfers for the country's generation
companies, and is been exacerbated by the country's exposure to
fluctuations in fossil-fuel prices and strong energy demand growth
from discos. The regular delays in government transfers have
pressured generators' working capital needs and added volatility to
their cash flows.

This situation increases sector risk, especially at a time of
rising fiscal vulnerabilities affecting the Central Government's
finances. Cash flow to Andres and DPP has historically been
affected by delays in payment from the state-owned distribution
companies, particularly during periods of high fuel oil prices,
which have pressured the system financially. Payment delays should
stabilize following regulatory changes.

Moderate Cash Flow Volatility: Cash flow to Andres and DPP has
historically been affected by delays in payment from the
state-owned distribution companies, particularly during periods of
high fuel oil prices, which have pressured the system financially.
As of September 2022, distribution companies owed Andres and DPP a
combined USD119 million, in line with the prior year but down
considerably from past levels. Both Andres and DPP maintain USD165
million in working capital lines of credit to manage collection
issues.

High-Quality Asset Base: Historically, Andres has ranked among the
lowest-cost electricity generators in the country. Andres's
combined-cycle plant with dual natural gas as well as fuel oil No.
6 (diesel), and is generally expected to be fully dispatched as a
base-load unit as long as the LNG price is not more than 15% higher
than the price of imported diesel.

Given the currently high costs of LNG, the company will utilize
comparatively lower-cost diesel fuel for its near-term generation
needs. The company continues to invest in renewable assets as well,
adding 150 MW of solar and wind assets to the portfolio over the
past several years at zero variable cost. Longer-term, the company
will acquire a 24% ownership stake in one of two new 400 MW
combined cycle gas turbine plants in the country. ENADOM will
supply gas to both 400MW projects.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Andres's ratings are linked to and constrained by the Dominican
Republic's ratings, from which it indirectly receives its revenues.
This is the same situation for Empresa Generadora de Electricidad
Haina, S.A. (EGE Haina; BB-/Stable), another Dominican Republic
power generator. The two companies are exposed to working capital
volatility due to operating difficulties tied to state-owned
Dominican electric distribution companies, which are characterized
by high dependency on government transfers due to their and high
energy loss and lower collection rates.

AES Andres has a thermal generation asset with competitive cost
generation. In addition, AES Andres has an integrated operation
with a natural gas port, regasification, storage and gas pipeline
facilities, as well as an expanding renewables business. Meanwhile,
EGE Haina benefits from a diversified energy matrix which includes
thermal and nonconventional renewable energy assets. EGE Haina's
leverage should increase to 4.6x by 2022 as a new subsidiary, Siba
Energy Corporation (Siba), will issue debt to finance the
construction of a new natural gas plant. This short-lived leverage
spike is similar to Andres' expected leverage of 4.1x leverage
expected in 2024.

Andres's capital structure is strong relative to similarly rated,
unconstrained peers. The Orazul Energy Peru S.A. (BB/Stable)
ratings reflect the company's predictable cash flows supported by
an adequate contractual position, historically efficient and
reliable hydroelectric generation assets, and cost structure
flexibility. Historically elevated leverage levels have tempered in
the last fiscal year due to asset sales and debt reduction, and
leverage is projected to remain commensurate with the rating
category over the medium term.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

- Both Andres and DPP reduce generation volumes in favor of
lower-cost generators, cancelling disco PPAs during 2023 but
continuing non-regulated user contracts. Most margin driven through
spot market and LNG sales;

- Andres and DPP increase generation through physical PPAs, with
margins driven by capacity revenues;

- By 2026 both generators resume financial PPAs with discos and
margins revert to generation;

- Additional USD250 million to support ongoing capex and dividend
payments equivalent to 100% of prior year's net income;

- Monomic contract prices of USD159/MWh in 2022, USD101/MWh in
2023, USD254/MWh in 2024 and USD188 in 2024 for AES Andres & DPP;

- Electricity spot prices of USD132/MWh over the rating horizon;

- Santanasol I comes online in 2022, Santanasol II and Mirasol I in
2023, and Mirasol II in 2024 with each unit having a total capacity
of 50MW;

- Fuel prices track Fitch price deck;

- Additional USD240 million in debt to support capex and
dividends;

- Dividends average USD95 million through 2026, with year-end cash
estimated at no less than USD93 million.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

- An upgrade in the Dominican Republic's sovereign ratings,
inclusive of the electricity sector achieving financial
sustainability through proper policy implementation.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

- A downgrade in the Dominican Republic's sovereign ratings;

- Sustained deterioration in the reliability of government
transfers;

- Continued exposure to spot sales and gas sales that collectively
represent more than 60% of EBITDA, coupled with a financial
performance deterioration resulting in the combined Andres/DPP
ratio of debt-to-EBITDA to above 4.5x for a sustained period.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Well-spread Maturities: Andres and DPP have historically reported
very strong combined credit metrics for the rating category. Both
companies have financial profiles characterized by low to moderate
leverage and strong liquidity. Combined EBITDA as of LTM June 30,
2022 totaled USD270 million (versus USD272 million at Dec. 31,
2021), total debt/EBITDA of 2.3x and FFO interest coverage of 5.3x.
The companies' strong liquidity position is further supported by
the refinancing of their 2026 international bond to a bond due in
2028. Andres also has local, amortizing bonds due in 2027.

ISSUER PROFILE

AES Andres is a 319 MW combined cycle power station and has a
160,000 m3 LNG storage facility, regasification terminal and a 34km
pipeline to DPP. The company also operates 100 MW of solar and 50
MW of wind assets, with more in the pipeline. DPP is a combined
cycle natural gas-fired plant with an installed capacity of 359
MW.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

   Entity/Debt               Rating               Prior
   -----------               ------               -----
AES Andres B.V.       LT IDR  BB-    Affirmed       BB-
                      Natl LT AA(dom)Affirmed   AA(dom)

   senior unsecured   LT      BB-    Affirmed       BB-

[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Has the Strongest Economic Recovery in 2023
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that at a time when the world's major
economies are discussing a possible recession, a recent Oxford
Economics report details how most Central American nations will
outperform Latin America's largest.

Given such a scenario, the Dominican Republic would be the most
favored, according to Dominican Today.  The Caribbean country is
expected to have the strongest post-pandemic recovery in 2023,
according to the analysis, the report notes.  Together with Panama,
"it will most likely see the highest annual growth" due to the
economy's diversification and structure, "which will help them
during the global recession," the report relays.

According to the report, the recovery in Central America has been
fueled by large inflows of US dollars from commodity exports,
record remittances, and an increase in tourism, the report
discloses.  While they anticipate that the aggregate growth of
Latin America's largest economies will be nearly flat, Central
American and Caribbean countries will have a GDP of 2.5% in 2023,
the report relays.

Other countries will not be so fortunate. They specify that Belize
and Nicaragua may experience the most significant slowdowns next
year, the report relays.  While the first will be due to the
country's "huge" reliance on tourism, the second will be due to the
collapse of institutions under the Ortega regime, which may make
the country more vulnerable to global weakness, the report notes.
Costa Rica and El Salvador (along with Belize) face the greatest
risks in the short term due to their fiscal positions, which they
classify as weak, as well as their economic imbalances, the report
adds.

                   About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.

The TCR-LA reported in April 2019 that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

The TCR-LA reported on December 12, 2022, that Fitch Ratings has
affirmed Dominican Republic's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a Stable Rating Outlook. Fitch
said Dominican Republic's ratings are supported by a track record
of robust economic growth, a diversified export structure, high
per-capita GDP and social indicators, and governance scores that
compare favorably to peers' after sustained improvement in the past
decade.

Standard & Poor's, also in December 2021, revised its outlook on
the Dominican Republic to stable from negative.S&P also affirmed
its 'BB-' long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit
ratings and its 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings. The stable
outlook reflects S&P's expectation of continued favorable GDP
growth and policy continuity over the next 12 to 18 months that
will likely stabilize the government's debt burden, despite lack of
progress with broader tax reforms, S&P said.A rapid economic
recovery from the downturn because of the pandemic should mitigate
external and fiscal risks.

Moody's affirmed the Dominican Republic's long-term issuer and
senior unsecured ratings at Ba3 and maintained the stable outlook
in March 2021.



===========
G U Y A N A
===========

GUYANA: IDB OKs US$97M Loan to Strengthen Health Services
---------------------------------------------------------
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) approved a US$97 million
loan to strengthen Guyana's health care network - the first
operation under a conditional credit line for investment projects
(CCLIP). The overall objective of the CCLIP, which will include
multiple loans, is to improve access, quality, and efficiency of
health services in the country.  

The program will expand the capacity of seven hospitals (four
hinterland hospitals in Regions 1, 7, 8 and 9, Linden Hospital, New
Amsterdam Hospital, and Georgetown Public Hospital) and extend the
coverage of diagnostic exams and medical consultations. It will
also increase the efficiency of the public health system by
supporting improvements in logistics, management, and processes.
Infrastructure upgrades include more efficient use of water and
energy as well as accessibility provisions for disabled persons.

It is expected that the project will benefit around 406,000
persons, over half of the country's population. In addition, the
telehealth activities, which will be installed in over 15 health
facilities, will reach all ten of the country's regions, including
the hinterlands.

As part of the investment project activities, the CCLIP will also
finance Guyana's plans for a digital transformation in health,
including the expansion of the teleradiology and teleophthalmology
networks. Finally, it will strengthen supply chain management,
improve the provision of maternal and child health, and contribute
to pandemic and emergency preparedness, among other activities.

This program included a gender and diversity assessment to identify
and address health disparities by gender, ethnicity, and disability
status. In addition, it contributes to climate change mitigation
and adaptation by financing health infrastructure that is
environmentally sustainable and resilient to climate change.

The IDB loan has an amortization period of 25 years, a grace period
of 5,5 years, and an interest rate based on SOFR.




=============
J A M A I C A
=============

JAMAICA: Net International Reserves Rose in November
----------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that Jamaica's Net International Reserves (NIR)
rose in the month of November.

NIR for the period was US$3.85 billion, according to RJR News.

That's a $75.3 million increase over the month of October, the
report notes.

At the end of October 2022, the NIR was US$3.77 billion, the report
relays.

November's NIR was enough to cover 24 weeks of goods and services,
the report adds.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in March
2022, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign
Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is
Stable.



=====================================
T R I N I D A D   A N D   T O B A G O
=====================================

CL FIN'L: Won't Survive Liquidation, Says CLICO Exec. Chair
-----------------------------------------------------------
Anthony Wilson at Trinidad Express reports that executive chair of
Colonial Life Insurance Company (Trinidad) Limited (Clico), Claire
Gomez-Miller expressed pessimism about the ability of CL Financial,
the parent company of the insurer, to survive the court-appointed
liquidation process, which resulted from a petition by Finance
Minister Colm Imbert.

"Remember CL Financial is now in liquidation.  I have never
experienced when a company has gone into liquidation that it is
ever revived.  It is not like going into receivership.  When a
company is in liquidation, it is liquidated. So I don't expect CL
Financial, after the liquidation, will continue to exist," she
said, according to  Trinidad Express.

Founded by Cyril Duprey in 1936, CLICO started operations on June
1, 1937, becoming T&T's largest insurance company by 2009, when it
was placed under the control of the Central Bank, the report
recalls.  CL Financial was established in 1993 by Lawrence Duprey,
the nephew of Cyril. It started as a holding company for CLICO.

According to a February 17, 2009 Companies Registry filing, CL
Financial is owned by 325 shareholders, the report relays.
Corporation Sole became a 14.2 per cent shareholder of CL Financial
in 2014, as a result of a transaction with the judicial manager of
British American Insurance Company (BAICO), the report notes.
CLICO, on the other hand, is owned 51 per cent by CL Financial and
49 per cent by Corporation Sole, the report discloses.

Gomez-Miller, who has served has been running CLICO since 2017,
expressed optimism about the insurance company's survival, the
report relays.

"I do expect that CLICO will exist. The success story that the
Government, Central Bank and CLICO have right now is the ability of
CLICO to continue. I am not seeing CL Financial continuing," she
said, the report relays.

At the news conference called to explain the Central Bank's
decision to relinquish control of CLICO, Gomez-Miller said CLICO
made an $11 billion claim against CL Financial in 2018, the report
discloses.

As a result of CLICO's efforts, it was able to settle the transfer
of seven per cent of Methanol Holdings International Ltd (MHIL)
held by CL Financial to the insurance company, the report relays.
That transaction means that CLICO now holds 56.52 per cent of MHIL,
which the insurance company is now in the process of selling down
to 19.9 per cent, in accordance with the requirement's of the
Insurance Act, the report notes.

"We had some CL Marine debt there and we got that settled and there
were two matters that we agreed to remove (from the claim), but
those were small matters. (We removed them) primarily because we
put them in just in case the other organisation did not . . .  The
bulk of the claim is about $10 billion now," said Gomez-Miller, the
report notes.

Asked about the $984 million claim that publicly listed Angostura
Holdings Ltd made against CL Financial, the insurance executive
said: "That is one that we just agreed with the liquidator that we
are not going to include in our claim because we are satisfied that
Angostura has made that claim and it has been accepted by the
liquidator," the report relays.

On the issue of the claims against CL Financial, Gomez-Miller said
she believes that CLICO's claim is the largest "and I feel we are
the most aggressive."

She said: "When the claims are settled, even for CLICO, remember
the Government still has claims. The Government has its claim for
the rest of the bailout that was given to British American Trinidad
and that was given to CLICO Investment Bank," Gomez-Miller said,
the report relays.

She clarified that CLICO Investment Bank was a subsidiary of CL
Financial and not CLICO. She also said CLICO had no investment in
British American Insurance (BAICO), the report notes.

"CL Financial had the majority shares of BAICO and BAICO owned
British American Trinidad," said Gomez-Miller, adding that she is
also executive chair of British American Trinidad, the report
relays.

Among CL Financial's largest remaining assets is its 51 per cent
stake in CLICO, the report notes.

And both CL Financial and CLICO have an interest in a lawsuit
challenging the sale of the group's 51 per cent interest in a
company called CLICO Energy to Proman for US$46.5 million, the
report relays.  Some 34 per cent of CLICO Energy was held by CL
Financial and 17 per cent by CLICO, the report notes.

The purchase and sale agreement was executed by then CL Financial
chairman, Lawrence Duprey, on February 3, 2009, just days after he
signed the January 30, 2009, Memorandum of Understanding, which
imposed certain requirements upon CL Financial when disposing of
assets, the report discloses.

The September 30, 2021, judgment of Justice Devindra Rampersad in
the matter ordered that Proman immediately restore the 51 per cent
of CLICO Energy to CL Financial, the report says.

He also ordered that Proman provide an account of all the dividends
paid by CLICO Energy since February 3, 2009 and pay those dividends
to CL Financial, the report relays.

Justice Rampersad's judgment has been appealed, the report adds.

                     About CL Financial/CLICO

CL Financial was one of the largest privately held conglomerate in
Trinidad and Tobago. It was originally founded as an insurance
company and has since expanded to be the holding company for a
diverse group of companies and subsidiaries.

CL Financial is the parent company of Colonial Life Insurance
Company (Trinidad) Limited (Clico).  CLICO is now the Company's
insurance division.

CL Financial however experienced a liquidity crisis in 2009 that
resulted in a "bail out" agreement by which the government of
Trinidad and Tobago loaned the company funds ($7.3 billion as of
December 2010) to maintain its ability to operate, and obtained a
majority of seats on the company's board of directors.

The companies to be bailed out were: CL Financial Ltd (CLF);
Colonial Life Insurance Company Ltd (CLICO); Caribbean Money Market
Brokers Ltd (CMMB); Clico Investment Bank (CIB) and British
American Insurance Company (Trinidad) Ltd (BAICO).

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America in July
2017, CL Financial Limited shareholders vowed to pay back a TT$15
billion (US$2.2 billion) debt to the Trinidad Government.



                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.

Copyright 2022.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2746.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.

Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year,
delivered via e-mail.  Additional e-mail subscriptions for members
of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each.  For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
.


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