/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/221125.mbx        T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Friday, November 25, 2022, Vol. 23, No. 230

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

AGUA Y SANEAMIENTOS: Fitch Downgrades LongTerm IDRs to 'C'
ARGENTINA: Can Play a Strategic Role as Lithuim Supplier
ARGENTINA: IDB OKs $125M-Loan to Help Strengthen Health Services
ARGENTINA: Templeton's Hasenstab Exits Bet After Losing Billions


B E R M U D A

SAGICOR FINANCIAL: Fitch Keeps IDR at 'BB' and Rating Watch Pos.


B O L I V I A

BANCO UNION: S&P Withdraws 'B+/B' Issuer Credit Ratings


B R A Z I L

PETRO RIO: Fitch Publishes 'BB-' LongTerm IDRs, Outlook Stable


C H I L E

LATAM AIRLINES: Posts Narrower Quarterly Loss as Fuel Costs Bite


D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C

[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Haitian Migration Difficult to Control


P A R A G U A Y

PARAGUAY: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Stable


P U E R T O   R I C O

ECSEM CORPORATION: Seeks to Hire Jimenez Vazquez as Accountant
ESJ TOWERS: Oriental Bank Opposes Exclusivity Extension


S T .   V I N C E N T   A N D   T H E   G R E N A D I N E S

ST. VINCENT & GRENADINE: Recovering From Pandemic, IMF Says

                           - - - - -


=================
A R G E N T I N A
=================

AGUA Y SANEAMIENTOS: Fitch Downgrades LongTerm IDRs to 'C'
----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Agua y Saneamientos Argentinos S.A.'s
(AySA) Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings
(IDRs) to 'C' from 'CC'. In addition, Fitch has also downgraded
AySA's USD500 million senior unsecured 6.625% notes due 2023 to
'C'/'RR4' from 'CC'/'RR4'. The Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) has
been assessed at 'c'.

The downgrades and SCP assessment reflect Fitch's view that AySA's
announced exchange offer and consent solicitation of its
outstanding 6.625% senior notes due 2023 for 7.9% senior notes due
2026 is deemed a Distressed Debt Exchange (DDE), per Fitch's
ratings criteria. Fitch views the offer as a material reduction of
the original terms and principal, due to a write down in principal,
with 99% of the original outstanding amount being exchanged, into
the new 2026 notes, with a minimum tender of 95%. Moreover, there
is a consent solicitation that will be achieved with a simple
majority to amend the event of default clauses of the original
note. If a simple majority is reached to proceed with the
amendment, AySA will be allowed to modify the offer and include an
Acuerdo Preventivo Extrajudicial (pre-agreed upon restructuring)
program to bind investors who do not voluntarily participate in the
exchange, without the change constituting an event of default.

The exchange is comprised of an early- and late tender cash
consideration. The early tender cash consideration consists of an
aggregate amount in cash of USD350 for each USD1,000 principal
amount of the existing 2023 notes, plus the applicable pro-rata
distribution (between all early tenders) of USD50 for USD1,000
principal amount of the note that are validly tendered and accepted
after the early tender date but prior to the late tender date. The
late tender cash consideration is for USD300 for each USD1,000. The
early tender period expires on Dec. 8, 2022 and the late tender
expires on Dec. 19, 2022.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Exchange Offer Qualifies as DDE: Fitch believes the company's
refinancing proposal qualifies as a DDE under its rating criteria,
as the modification of covenants for the USD500 million notes due
in 2023 is a material reduction in terms for non-exchanging
bondholders. The exchange is necessary to comply with central bank
capital controls restricting companies' ability to convert
Argentine pesos into dollars in order to repay dollar-denominated
debt abroad.

Fitch views this exchange as being exacerbated by Argentina's
intrusive capital controls rules that have been extended through
2023 exposing the company and its Argentine peers to significant
refinancing risk, along with elevated financing costs, and
deteriorating macroeconomic conditions in Argentina.

Unsustainable Leverage: AySA is expected to continue reporting
negative EBITDA estimated at ARS65 billion at FYE 2022; thus,
leverage is also expected to remain negative. AySA's FCF is also
expected to remain negative, projected at ARS215 billion at FYE
2022 due to increasing negative operating cash flow generation and
higher capex. The base case scenario assumes tariff growth of 32%
in 2022 (plus inflation), and in line with inflation rates
thereafter.

Government-Related Entity (GRE): AySA's ratings now reflect its
likelihood of default, but the company's GRE assessment score was
recently downgraded to 22.5 from 35 as a result of the downward
revision of the Support Track Record from 'very strong' to
'moderate' and Financial Implications of a Default from 'strong' to
'moderate.' The downgrade of the Support Track Record reflects the
lack of financial support from the government through either an
equity injection or adjustment in tariffs and/or subsidies to
improve the company's credit profile.

Weak Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for AySA is
weak given a demonstrated track record of reduced enforceability,
with annual tariff increase ultimately a political decision from
the federal government, which poses uncertainty about future
regulatory mechanisms to adjust tariffs.

Agua y Saneamientos Argentinos S.A. has an ESG Relevance score of
'4' for Governance Structure, due to its nature as a majority
government-owned entity and the inherent governance risk that
arises with a dominant state shareholder, which has a negative
impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the ratings in
conjunction with other factors.

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3' - ESG issues are credit
neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either
due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by
the entity.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

AySA's SCP is weak as compared with its main peers in other Latin
American countries owing to its fragile operating performance, weak
regulatory environment and strong dependence on shareholders to
support its negative operating cash flow generation and debt
payments.

This condition compares unfavorably with Companhia de Saneamento
Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo (Sabesp; Local Currency IDR
BB+/Stable), a state-owned company based in Brazil with sound cash
flow generation and strong credit metrics, and Aegea Saneamento e
Participacoes S.A. (Local Currency IDR BB/Rating Watch Negative), a
privately owned company in Brazil with strong EBITDA margins and
diversified portfolio of concessions.

AySA's efficiency ratios, such as water distribution losses and
connection per employee are weak as compared with these two peers,
which also benefit from improved regulatory environment,
demonstrated financial flexibility and better corporate governance
practices.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

- Continued support from government through capital injections;

- Tariff segmentation and removal of subsidies as of Nov. 1, 2022;

- A tariff increase in 2022 of 32% in 2022 and increase in line
with inflation estimates thereafter;

- Additional revenue growth in 2022 and thereafter in line with the
four-year historical annual average growth in connections;

- Average annual capex of around ARS437 billion over the 2022-2025
period;

- Operating losses, capex, and financial obligations backed by
government transfers.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The completion of the proposed exchange offer will lead to a
downgrade of the Long-Term IDRs to 'RD'. The IDR would subsequently
be upgraded to a rating level reflecting the post-DDE credit
profile.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Weak Liquidity: AySA's liquidity fully relies on cash injections
from the shareholder given its inability to generate internal cash
and its restricted access to debt and capital markets on a
standalone basis. The company's refinancing risk is currently being
tested as its bullet maturity comes due in February 2023.

ISSUER PROFILE

AySA is the water/wastewater concessionaire of Buenos Aires and 26
municipalities of the metropolitan region. The company is a service
provider to an estimated 15 million people through a 20-year,
extendable concession agreement.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Agua y Saneamientos Argentinos S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of
'4' for Governance Structure due to {DESCRIPTION OF
ISSUE/RATIONALE}, which has a negative impact on the credit
profile, and is relevant to the rating[s] in conjunction with other
factors.

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

   Entity/Debt                 Rating         Recovery   Prior
   -----------                 ------         --------   -----
Agua y Saneamientos
Argentinos S.A.       LT IDR    C  Downgrade                CC
                      LC LT IDR C  Downgrade                CC

   senior unsecured   LT        C  Downgrade     RR4        CC

ARGENTINA: Can Play a Strategic Role as Lithuim Supplier
--------------------------------------------------------
Rio Times Online report that Argentina can help the world through
the supply of lithium, according to The Economist.

They add that the country could play a strategic role, even despite
the country's macroeconomic constraints, according to Rio Times
Online.

As they pointed out, Argentina could become a key global player for
lithium, and estimated that it could represent 16% of the world's
lithium, up from 6% in 2021, the report notes.

                            About Argentina

Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South America.  Its capital is Buenos Aires. Alberto Angel
Fernandez is the current president of Argentina after winning  
the October 2019 general election. He succeeded Mauricio  
Macri in the position.

Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America.  The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however,  
its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.

Last March 25, 2022, Argentina finalized agreement with the IMF
for a new USD44 billion Extended Funding Facility (EFF) intended
to fund USD40 billion in looming repayments of the defunct
Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), with an extra USD4 billion in up-front
net financing. This has averted the risk of a default to the IMF
and is facilitating a parallel rescheduling of Paris  Club debt.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on
Nov. 18, 2022, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'CCC+/C' foreign
currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina. S&P lowered the
long-term local currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC-' from
'CCC+' and the national scale rating to 'raCCC+' from 'raBBB-'.
S&P also affirmed its 'C' short-term local currency rating.
The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. S&P's 'CCC+'
transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged.

Last April 14, 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'CCC'.
Fitch said Argentina's 'CCC' ratings reflect weak external
liquidity and pronounced macroeconomic imbalances that undermine
debt repayment capacity, and uncertainty regarding how much
progress can be made on these issues under a new IMF program.
On July 19, 2022, Fitch Ratings placed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and Long-Term Local
Currency IDR Under Criteria Observation (UCO) following the
conversion of the agency's Exposure Draft: Sovereign Rating
Criteria to final criteria. The UCO assignment indicates that
ratings may change as a direct result of the final criteria. It
does not indicate a change in the underlying credit profile, nor
does it affect existing Rating Outlooks.

Moody's credit rating for Argentina was last set at Ca on
Sept. 28, 2020.

DBRS has also confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency
Issuer Rating at CCC and Long-Term Local Currency Issuer Rating at
CCC (high) on July 21, 2022.

ARGENTINA: IDB OKs $125M-Loan to Help Strengthen Health Services
----------------------------------------------------------------
The Inter-American Development Bank approved a $125 million loan to
help Argentina strengthen its agricultural health services and
enhance the sustainability of its marine resources. The program
aims to bolster pest control to safeguard the country's
zoo-sanitary and phytosanitary assets, expand the diagnostic
capacity of plant and animal health laboratories, and support
research on the resources in the country's oceans.

The loan will strengthen the work of the National Service for
Agro-Food Health and Quality (SENASA) and the National Institute
for Fishery Research and Development (INIDEP), two agencies that
play a pivotal role in the country's growth as a food supplier.

The vast scale of Argentina's territory, the diversity of its
ecosystems, the length of the land and river borders it shares with
five countries, and the volume of its agricultural trade raise the
risk of disease and pest infestations and pose considerable
challenges for maintaining the health of the country's plants and
animals.

The program will strengthen SENASA's infrastructure to improve its
disease prevention and phytosanitary and zoo-sanitary protection
capabilities. The loan will benefit over one million private-sector
parties in the agricultural industry, such as primary agricultural
producers, industrial establishments, service providers, logistics
and transportation firms, and members of the different agro-food
chains.

Meanwhile, climate change is triggering significant problems in
marine ecosystems, like receding ice, acidification, increasingly
extreme weather events, and shifts in the biodiversity and
distribution of species. This program aims to mitigate the
potentially negative effects of these changes on fisheries.

The program will therefore enhance the INIDEP's capabilities for
oceanographic research on fisheries and marine resources. It will
also finance the construction of laboratories and office buildings
in coastal provinces to enhance coordination with private fishing
outfits and other institutions. Finally, it will provide the
resources for funding and building a modern vessel that is fully
equipped for oceanographic research.

By strengthening fishery research capabilities, the program is
expected to directly benefit over 5,000 operators in the fishing
industry, primarily fishers, scientists, technicians, researchers
and ship owners.

                          About Argentina

Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South America.  Its capital is Buenos Aires. Alberto Angel
Fernandez is the current president of Argentina after winning  
the October 2019 general election. He succeeded Mauricio  
Macri in the position.

Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America.  The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however,  
its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.

Last March 25, 2022, Argentina finalized agreement with the IMF
for a new USD44 billion Extended Funding Facility (EFF) intended
to fund USD40 billion in looming repayments of the defunct
Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), with an extra USD4 billion in up-front
net financing. This has averted the risk of a default to the IMF
and is facilitating a parallel rescheduling of Paris  Club debt.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on
Nov. 18, 2022, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'CCC+/C' foreign
currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina. S&P lowered the
long-term local currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC-' from
'CCC+' and the national scale rating to 'raCCC+' from 'raBBB-'.
S&P also affirmed its 'C' short-term local currency rating.
The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. S&P's 'CCC+'
transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged.

Last April 14, 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'CCC'.
Fitch said Argentina's 'CCC' ratings reflect weak external
liquidity and pronounced macroeconomic imbalances that undermine
debt repayment capacity, and uncertainty regarding how much
progress can be made on these issues under a new IMF program.
On July 19, 2022, Fitch Ratings placed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and Long-Term Local
Currency IDR Under Criteria Observation (UCO) following the
conversion of the agency's Exposure Draft: Sovereign Rating
Criteria to final criteria. The UCO assignment indicates that
ratings may change as a direct result of the final criteria. It
does not indicate a change in the underlying credit profile, nor
does it affect existing Rating Outlooks.

Moody's credit rating for Argentina was last set at Ca on
Sept. 28, 2020.

DBRS has also confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency
Issuer Rating at CCC and Long-Term Local Currency Issuer Rating at
CCC (high) on July 21, 2022.


ARGENTINA: Templeton's Hasenstab Exits Bet After Losing Billions
----------------------------------------------------------------
Ignacio Olivera Doll and Scott Squires at Bloomberg News reports
that six years after placing a multibillion-dollar bet on
Argentina's resurgence, Franklin Templeton's Michael Hasenstab
appears set to finally exit the money-losing wager, concluding a
painful chapter for the once-vaunted money manager known for his
moonshot bets in emerging markets.

The firm sold more than 25 billion pesos ($156 million) of local
bonds in the third quarter, filing data show, according to
Bloomberg News.  It's continued to offload Argentine debt since
then, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, who
declined to provide details on the size of the sales, Bloomberg
News relays.  Market participants say a spike in trading volume
last month, particularly in inflation-linked bonds known to be held
by Franklin Templeton, hints at a sizeable retreat, Bloomberg News
discloses.

The exodus caps six brutal years of losses, estimated in the
billions of dollars, and marks the departure of one of Argentina's
most important financial backers over the last half-decade - a span
in which the nation struggled through a $65 billion default and a
failed pivot toward market-friendly reforms, Bloomberg News  notes.
In total, Franklin Templeton's stake, which once stood in excess
of $5 billion, has shrunk to roughly $250 million, not including
any divestments in October or November, according to data compiled
by Bloomberg.

"The bet was horrendous, and on the one hand, you can fault
Franklin Templeton for making it because similar wagers in
Argentina have always ended in tears," said Diego Ferro, founder of
M2M Capital in New York.  "At the same time, people in government
were saying all the right things, were credible at the time, and
made a lot of promises," adding that "of course, hindsight is
20/20," Bloomberg News relays.

Hasenstab didn't respond to multiple requests seeking comment,
while Stacey Coleman, a spokesperson for San Mateo,
California-based Franklin Templeton declined to comment on the
firm's Argentine holdings or broader investment strategy, Bloomberg
News notes.

Hasenstab shot to prominence more than a decade ago following
massive, successful wagers on struggling countries including
Ireland and Hungary that reaped billions in returns for investors,
Bloomberg News says.

But that same strategy would prove disastrous in Argentina,
Bloomberg News relays.

He piled into the country's bonds around the start of former
President Mauricio Macri's rise to power, betting the South
American country was primed to lead a rebound among developing
nations under his market-friendly watch, Bloomberg News  notes.

Hasenstab was initially so bullish on Argentina's turnaround that
in mid-2016 the money manager decided to buy about $5 billion of
fixed-rate peso bonds, convinced that inflation would quickly be
cut in half, according to a person familiar with the matter,
Bloomberg News  discloses.  The bet was so big that Argentine
authorities initially didn't believe Hasenstab's envoys were
serious about the purchase, said the person, who asked not to be
named discussing private conversations, Bloomberg News says.

Bloomberg News discloses that when Franklin Templeton did buy the
notes around the end of 2016, it purchased them near par. In recent
months, as it's continued to exit what's left of the position, some
have traded below 30 cents, Bloomberg data show, while the peso has
weakened more than 90% over the span.

                           Losing Bet

Hasenstab's wager took a turn in early 2018 as persistent
inflation, drought and a global trade war dented investor
confidence, sparking months of exchange-rate volatility and market
selloffs that forced Macri to return to the International Monetary
Fund to negotiate a record $56 billion bailout, Bloomberg News
relays.

By that October, Hasenstab decided to personally travel to
Argentina, furious that the country had made a deal with the IMF,
which he believed had been primarily responsible for leading
Ukraine - another one of his outsized wagers - into a debt crisis
years earlier, the person said, Bloomberg News discloses.

The following year, Macri's stunning defeat in primary elections
caused a steep sell-off that wiped out almost $2 billion of
Franklin Templeton's stake in a single day, the report relays.
Days later he defaulted on the nation's local debt and brought back
capital controls, Bloomberg News notes.  That, along with the
country's decision to ultimately restructure its international
bonds, would trap the firm and other large creditors, even as the
government offered buybacks and swaps for local bonds to help ease
the pain, Bloomberg News discloses.

Hasenstab has been trimming down his position in Argentina since
2020, filings show, around the time Argentina was exiting its ninth
default, Bloomberg News relays.  Since then, the left-leaning
government of President Alberto Fernandez has applied patchwork
economic policies to try and bring down inflation and lift the
economy out of its pandemic-induced doldrums, Bloomberg News notes

Those efforts have mostly been in vain, as inflation spirals toward
triple digits, the nation's international reserves wallow near a
six-year low, and draconian capital controls continue to limit
international investment, Bloomberg News says.

                          Argentine Whale

Hasenstab was such a big player that the firm's retreat may
complicate Argentina's ability to roll over large debt maturities
due next year, squeezing the country's tiny local market, Bloomberg
News notes.

"We are seeing a more saturated local market, with fewer inflows to
bonds in pesos," said Carolina Gialdi, head of
international-markets sales and trading at Max Capital in Buenos
Aires, Bloomberg News relays.

Argentina's parallel exchange rate, known locally as the blue-chip
swap, strengthened 0.6% to about 310 pesos per dollar as of 5:05pm
local time. Argentina's official exchange rate weakened 0.7% to
about 162 pesos per dollar, Bloomberg News discloses.

Even with Argentines expected to pivot back to a more
market-friendly regime when they head to the polls in less than a
year, Franklin Templeton has shown little sign it's willing to give
the country a second chance, Bloomberg News says.

Last month Fitch Ratings cut the nation's credit grade one notch to
CCC-, citing the country's dwindling debt-repayment capacity,
Bloomberg News discloses.

"The country once again finds itself in a place of stagnating
growth and high inflation," said Jared Lou, a portfolio manager for
emerging-market debt at William Blair Investment Management,
Bloomberg News relays.  "Although many expect regime change in next
year's elections, it's unclear how many dollars will be left in the
central bank when a new government takes over, raising fresh
concerns about Argentina's ability to pay its debts," Bloomberg
News adds.

                          About Argentina

Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of
South America.  Its capital is Buenos Aires. Alberto Angel
Fernandez is the current president of Argentina after winning  
the October 2019 general election. He succeeded Mauricio  
Macri in the position.

Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America.  The
country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal
year 2019, according to the World Bank. Historically, however,  
its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic
growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution
and in the recent decades, increasing poverty.

Last March 25, 2022, Argentina finalized agreement with the IMF
for a new USD44 billion Extended Funding Facility (EFF) intended
to fund USD40 billion in looming repayments of the defunct
Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), with an extra USD4 billion in up-front
net financing. This has averted the risk of a default to the IMF
and is facilitating a parallel rescheduling of Paris  Club debt.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on
Nov. 18, 2022, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'CCC+/C' foreign
currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina. S&P lowered the
long-term local currency sovereign credit rating to 'CCC-' from
'CCC+' and the national scale rating to 'raCCC+' from 'raBBB-'.
S&P also affirmed its 'C' short-term local currency rating.
The outlook on the long-term ratings is negative. S&P's 'CCC+'
transfer and convertibility assessment is unchanged.

Last April 14, 2022, Fitch Ratings affirmed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) at 'CCC'.
Fitch said Argentina's 'CCC' ratings reflect weak external
liquidity and pronounced macroeconomic imbalances that undermine
debt repayment capacity, and uncertainty regarding how much
progress can be made on these issues under a new IMF program.
On July 19, 2022, Fitch Ratings placed Argentina's Long-Term
Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and Long-Term Local
Currency IDR Under Criteria Observation (UCO) following the
conversion of the agency's Exposure Draft: Sovereign Rating
Criteria to final criteria. The UCO assignment indicates that
ratings may change as a direct result of the final criteria. It
does not indicate a change in the underlying credit profile, nor
does it affect existing Rating Outlooks.

Moody's credit rating for Argentina was last set at Ca on
Sept. 28, 2020.

DBRS has also confirmed Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency
Issuer Rating at CCC and Long-Term Local Currency Issuer Rating at
CCC (high) on July 21, 2022.




=============
B E R M U D A
=============

SAGICOR FINANCIAL: Fitch Keeps IDR at 'BB' and Rating Watch Pos.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings maintains Sagicor Financial Company Ltd's (SFCL) at
Rating Watch Positive (RWP). SFCL's Long-Term Foreign-Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured debt remain
unchanged at 'BB' and 'BB-', respectively.

Fitch placed SFCL's ratings on RWP in August 2022 following the
announcement of its intended acquisition of ivari, a leading
middle-market insurer in Canada, and reflects prospective
improvement in the credit quality of SFCL's insurance operating
company group. Fitch expects to resolve SCFL'S Rating Watch upon
successful completion of the transaction, anticipated to take place
in the first half of 2023, subject to regulatory approvals and
closing conditions.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

ivari Acquisition Completion: Fitch expects to resolve the RWP
following SFCL's acquisition of ivari. The RWP reflects that Fitch
is likely to affirm or upgrade SFCL's Long-Term IDR and senior
unsecured debt should the acquisition proceed under the assumptions
considered by Fitch.

Improved Company Profile: The RWP is supported by an improved
company profile at the group operating company level as a result of
the acquisition of ivari, which operates in a stronger operating
environment. The acquisition of ivari will lead to a material
positive shift in SFCL's operating group's competitive positioning,
operating scale, and business mix, including geographic
diversification towards investment grade sovereign jurisdictions.

Strong Capitalization with Some Pressures: Fitch views
capitalization of SFCL's insurance operations to be strong and
supportive of the ratings. SFCL's strong capitalization is
supported by a consolidated MCCSR of 204% and operating leverage of
8.9x as of Sept. 30, 2022, which is very strong relative to life
insurance peers.

Capitalization ratios have shown deterioration in 2022 due to mark
to market declines from rising interest rates and increases in the
actuarial liabilities in line with company growth. Capitalization
levels could face additional pressures due to heightened
macroeconomic uncertainty, including continued rising interest
rates and inflation in key markets, and the introduction of IFRS
17.

Higher Financial Leverage Ratios: SFCL's financial leverage has
historically been high and is expected to increase modestly due to
the planned addition of new debt required to fund the ivari
acquisition, putting downward pressure on holding company notching.
FLR (including minority interest) of 32% as of Sept. 30, 2022
increased from 28% as of Dec. 31, 2021.

After the transaction closes, Fitch will review leverage and
capitalization levels compared with original rating expectations.
Fitch will also review the level of the new cash flow derived from
ivari, along with any other developments with respect to ivari's
standalone credit quality. In resolving the Rating Watch, Fitch
will balance the credit positives tied to improvements in the group
operating company credit quality relative to the credit negatives
tied to the impact of higher financial leverage, while also
balancing in regulatory restrictions on the acquired cash flows

Investment Risk Above Average with Manageable Exposure: SFCL's
investment portfolio has considerably above average investment risk
relative to the industry. SFCL's investment portfolio has
substantial concentrations in Jamaica and Barbados sovereigns.
These investments are primarily used to meet regulatory
requirements and for insurance liability matching purposes; as a
result, the portfolio has a significant concentration of below
investment-grade debt. SFCL's investment and asset risk factor will
improve with the purchase of ivari, as it will result in a
reduction of capital exposure to below investment grade bonds, but
it will still remain elevated relative to the industry.

Strong Financial Performance: During 2021 and the first nine months
of 2022, Sagicor experienced strong earnings from all business
segments, with particularly robust performance in the U.S. and
Jamaica. U.S. operations have reported strong net income in 2021
and 9M22 due to strong growth in U.S. annuity sales and premium
revenue, along with positive investment spreads. The Jamaican
segment's earnings were strong in 9M22, but decreased yoy due to
historically high volumes in 2021 and realized and unrealized
investment losses due to the rising rate environment.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

- Significant improvement in SFC's consolidated industry profile,
operating environment and company profile achieved by the closing
of the ivari acquisition, and the view that it materially enhances
the operating group's overall credit quality;

- FLR ratios maintained at or below current levels and not higher
than 35%;

- Fixed charge coverage ratio of at least 3x;

- Economic uncertainties do not result in a decline in ivari's
stand-alone credit quality implied at the current 'A-' Insurer
Financial Strength (IFS) rating;

- No material deterioration in economic and operating environments
and sovereigns of Jamaica, Trinidad, and Barbados;

- Below investment grade to capital ratio close to 130% and Risky
asset ratio below 250% and, along with minimal exposure to
sovereigns to capital specially Barbados, Jamaica and Trinidad.

The ratings could return to Stable Outlook if:

- The transaction is not completed;

- There is a decline in ivari's IFS rating on a standalone basis to
below 'A-', and/or available cash flows available to the holding
company would appear to be lower than expected;

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

- Significant deterioration in the economic and operating
environments and sovereigns of Jamaica, Trinidad and Barbados,
which would lead to a material decline in operating performance
and/or credit profile of SFCL's investment portfolio;

- Deterioration in key financial metrics, including consolidated
MCCSR falling below 180% and financial leverage exceeding 35% and
ROE below 5% on a sustained basis;

Criteria Variation

Bespoke IPOE

SFCL's primary operations are located in four jurisdictions: U.S.,
Jamaica, Trinidad and Barbados. Given the company's insurance
operations across the Caribbean and the U.S., SFCL's IPOE score is
an amalgamated IPOE range of 'bb+' to 'b-', reflecting its primary
regions of operations. SFCL's IPOE range continues to reflect the
skew of its business mix toward below-investment-grade
jurisdictions, which remains the majority but recognizes continued
growth in the U.S. over the last several years.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

   Entity/Debt              Rating                       Prior
   -----------              ------                       -----
Sagicor Financial
Company Ltd.          LT IDR BB  Rating Watch Maintained   BB

   senior unsecured   LT     BB- Rating Watch Maintained   BB-



=============
B O L I V I A
=============

BANCO UNION: S&P Withdraws 'B+/B' Issuer Credit Ratings
-------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings withdrew its 'B+/B' issuer credit ratings on
Banco Union at the bank's request. The outlook on the global scale
rating was negative, which reflects the outlook on Bolivia.

At the time of the withdrawal, Banco Union had a 'bb-' stand-alone
credit profile (SACP), one notch above the rating on Bolivia
(B+/Negative/B). The bank's SACP reflected its solid funding and
liquidity base, good business position in the Bolivian financial
system, and diversified revenue, but also its limited
capitalization considering our forecast risk-adjusted capital (RAC)
ratio for the bank that's only slightly above 3%. The sovereign
rating limits that on the bank because S&P doesn't think it could
withstand a sovereign default scenario, given its large exposure to
the country in the form of loans and investments.






===========
B R A Z I L
===========

PETRO RIO: Fitch Publishes 'BB-' LongTerm IDRs, Outlook Stable
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Petrorio Luxembourg Trading S.a.r.l. a
first-time 'BB- 'Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating
(IDR). The Rating Outlook is Stable.

In addition, Fitch has published the following ratings:

- Petro Rio S.A. (PRIO): 'BB-' Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency
IDRs and Stable Rating Outlook;

- Petrorio Luxembourg Trading S.a.r.l.: $600 million senior secured
notes due 2026 rated 'BB-'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Robust Reserves: PRIO has a strong 1P reserve life, which is
estimated to exceed 17 years in 2023, and a PDP reserve life of
more than 12 years; both ratios are consistent with the 'BB' rating
category, even under a conservative scenario of no replacement in
the five years covered in the rating horizon. The company is well
positioned to maintain its production metrics beyond 2026. PRIO's
1P reserve life compares favorably to that of the average of its
'B' rated peers of seven years.

Production Profile: PRIO's production size is modest with expected
output of 48,000 bbld in 2022. Current assets under operation
include the Frade field and the Polvo and TBMT cluster,
representing roughly 2/3 and 1/3 of total production in 2022,
respectively. Fitch estimates that after the acquisition of
Albacora Leste, PRIO's production will increase day one to 88,000
bbls in 2023 and to 100,000 bbls in 2024, which is consistent with
the 'BB' rating category.

The sharp production growth is due to the company's investments in
mid-cycle assets, and the reactivation and optimization of certain
wells via different low-cost, low-risk methods of extraction.
Production levels are expected to further increase with the
integration of the Wahoo asset exceeding 100,000 boed in 2024.

Low Leverage: Fitch expects PRIO's leverage to peak at 1.4x debt to
EBITDA in 2022, and to steadily decrease through the rating
horizon. The rating case assumes total debt of USD 1,462 million in
2022 and USD 1,410 million in 2023. Leverage metrics are supported
by strong brent prices assumed at $105 bbl in 2022. Fitch expects
PRIO will maintain robust credit metrics through the rating
horizon. In addition, Fitch expects gross leverage measured as
total debt to 1P reserves, proforma for the Albacora Leste
acquisition, to be $1.0/bbl on average through 2026, which compares
favorably to peers, which averaged $6.02/bbl at YE 2021.

Competitive Cost Structure: PRIO has a competitive cost production
profile that allows it to remain profitable at low market prices.
Fitch estimates the company's half-cycle cost was $20.82 bbl in
2021, and its full-cycle cost of production, which is defined as
the half-cycle cost plus the three-year average FD&A for 1P of
$27.67 bbl. For 2022, PRIO's estimated half-cycle cost of $17.84 is
lower than peers, which average $21 bbl. The difference in cost
profile is mostly attributed due to PRIO having high production
levels that allows economies of scale; a business model based on
low-cost extraction; and PRIO's interconnection projects between
nearby clusters, which translate into cost-savings and lower
emissions.

Over the rated horizon, PRIO's cost profile coupled with Fitch's
price deck, which assumes $100 Brent in 2022 and $53 long term, is
expected to generate ample cash flow.

Financial Flexibility and Liquidity: Fitch's rating case assumes
PRIO will have conservative financial policies. Over the rating
horizon, funds from operations should cover capex by an average of
3.5x under Fitch's price deck assumption. Further, a strong reserve
profile gives the company flexibility to allocate capital in the
event of price volatility. PRIO's competitive cost of production
also helps offset the need to enter hedging contracts, further
enhancing financial flexibility and liquidity.

Parent Guaranty: The $600 million 2026 bond is issued by Petrorio
Luxembourg Trading S.a.r.l., fully guaranteed by Petro Rio S.A.
(parent company and herein assigned a BB-/Stable). Per Fitch's
"Parent-Subsidiary Linkage Criteria," a full parent guarantee
warrants a "strong" Legal Incentive designation, which in turn
equalizes the issuer's rating with that of the parent-guarantor.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

PRIO's credit and business profile compares to that of other small
independent oil producers in Latin America. The ratings of Trident
Energy (B+/Stable), SierraCol (B+/Stable), Geopark (B+/Stable),
Frontera Energy Corporation (B/Stable), and Gran Tierra Energy
International Holdings Ltd. (B-/Stable) are all constrained to the
'B' category or below due to the inherent operational risk
associate with small scale and low diversification of their oil and
gas production.

PRIO's production profile compares favorably with other 'B' rated
Latin American oil exploration and production companies. Over the
rating horizon, Fitch expects PRIO's production will average 80,400
bbld. This figure almost doubles that of Geopark and Frontera, both
of which Fitch expects will average 45,000 bbld, and is also
significantly higher than SierraCol and Gran Tierra Energy, which
range from 30,000 bbld to 40,000 kbbl.

PRIO's PDP reserve life of 12.5 years and 1P reserve life of 39
years in 2021 compares favorably to Trident's at 7.2 years and 13
years, SierraCol at 4.8 years and 6.3 years, Frontera at 1.6 years
and 6.2 years, Geopark at 4.0 years and 7.4 years, and Gran Tierra
at 5.7 years and 9.5 years.

PRIO's half-cycle production cost was $17.52/bbl in 2021 and
full-cycle cost was $24.37/bbl, in line with other producers. The
lowest cost onshore producer in the region, Geopark, has a cost
profile of $13.60/bbl and $23.40/bbl. For Frontera, at the higher
side of the spectrum, these costs were $28.60/bbl and $42.20/bbl in
2021, and for Trident, an offshore producer these were $24.44/bbl
and $44.90/bbl.

PRIO has a strong capital structure, and Fitch expects it will have
average gross leverage below 1.0x over the rating horizon, total
debt to PDP of $3.94/bbl, and total debt to 1P of $1.20/bbl, which
is lower than all of its peers. Geopark has gross leverage of 1.8x
and Debt to PDP of $10.24/bbl and 1P of $5.48/bbl; Gran Tierra has
2.7x, $16.8/bbl and $10.05/bbl; SierraCol has 1.0x, $7.5/bbl and
$5.68/bbl; Trident has 2.7x, $6.55/bbl and $3.62/bbl; and Frontera
has 2.3x, $19.93/bbl and $4.98/bbl.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's Key Assumptions Within The Rating Case for the Issuer:

- Annual realized oil prices at a $3.7 discount in 2022, $2.90 in
2023, and $2.5 going forward, to Fitch's price deck for Brent of
$100 in 2022, $85 in 2023, and $53 thereafter;

- Average daily production of 80,800 bbld from 2022 through 2026;

- No reserve replacement;

- Lifting cost average of $8.80/bbl;

- SG&A cost average of $1.06/bbl;

- Consolidated capex of $2.361 billion from 2022 through 2026
averaging $472 million per year;

--Dividends of 20% of net income;

--Effective tax rate of 25% in 2022, 25% in 2023, and 30%
thereafter;

- No new debt issuances.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

- Net production approaching 100,000 boed on a sustained basis
while maintaining 1P reserve life of at least 20 years and/or
sustained gross 1P reserves of at least 1,000 million boe or more.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

- Extraordinary dividend payments that exceed FCF and weaken
liquidity;

- A significant deterioration of total debt/EBITDA to 3.0x or
more.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Robust Liquidity: As of Sept. 30, 2022, PRIO reported a total cash
balance of $2.6 billion. The company's liquidity is further
enhanced by its low leverage metrics that support credit quality
and thus access to markets. Fitch expects that PRIO will use
surplus cash for acquisitions the acquisition of the Albacora Leste
clusters, which is estimated to hold an additional 500 million bbl
of 2P reserves.

ISSUER PROFILE

Petro Rio S.A. is an independent oil and gas company in Brazil,
with a primary focus on operating and developing production assets
and a core portfolio consisting of four operating fields in the
Campos and Camamu-Almada Basins in offshore Brazil.

PRIO is the largest independent oil and gas company in Brazil and
has historically grown through concession acquisitions. Its
production increased from 11.7 Mboepd in 2018 to 31.6 Mboepd in
2021. The company's 2021 year-end reserves was 187.9 million boe.

Petrorio Luxembourg S.a r.l., the issuer of the notes, conducts the
group's oil trading activities.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

   Entity/Debt                 Rating        
   -----------                 ------        
Petrorio Luxembourg
Trading S.a r.l.      LT IDR    BB-  New Rating

   senior secured     LT        BB-  Publish

Petro Rio S.A.
                      LT IDR    BB-  Publish
                      LC LT IDR BB-  Publish



=========
C H I L E
=========

LATAM AIRLINES: Posts Narrower Quarterly Loss as Fuel Costs Bite
----------------------------------------------------------------
Reuters reports that LATAM Airlines, South America's largest
carrier, reported a narrower third-quarter net loss of $296
million, the company said in a statement, partly hit by high fuel
prices.

The Chile-based airline's quarterly loss this year compares to a
$694 million loss during the same three-month period last year,
according to the report.

LATAM's revenue during the July to September period rose 97% to
total $2.587 billion compared to the third quarter last year, the
report notes.

The airline, created by the 2012 merger of Chile's LAN with
Brazilian rival TAM, operates units in Chile, Brazil, Colombia and
Peru, the report relays.

The company's quarterly results follow the firm's early November
completion of a years-long restructuring. LATAM filed for chapter
11 bankruptcy protection in 2020 after the airline was hammered
during the pandemic, the report adds.

                   About LATAM Airlines Group

LATAM Airlines Group S.A. -- http://www.latam.com/ --is a
pan-Latin American airline holding company involved in the
transportation of passengers and cargo and operates as one unified
business enterprise.  It is the largest passenger airline in
South
America.

Before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, LATAM offered passenger
transport services to 145 different destinations in 26 countries,
including domestic flights in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia,
Ecuador and Peru, and international services within Latin America
as well as to Europe, the United States, the Caribbean, Oceania,
Asia and Africa.

LATAM and its 28 affiliates sought Chapter 11 protection (Bankr.
S.D.N.Y. Lead Case No. 20-11254) on May 25, 2020.  Affiliates in
Chile, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador and the United States are part of
the Chapter 11 filing.

The Debtors disclosed $21,087,806,000 in total assets and
$17,958,629,000 in total liabilities as of Dec. 31, 2019.

The Hon. James L. Garrity, Jr., is the case judge.

The Debtors tapped Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP as
bankruptcy counsel, FTI Consulting as restructuring advisor, Lee
Brock Camargo Advogados as local Brazilian litigation counsel, and
Togut, Segal & Segal LLP and Claro & Cia in Chile as special
counsel. The Boston Consulting Group, Inc. and The Boston
Consulting Group UK LLP serve as the Debtors' strategic advisors.
Prime Clerk LLC is the claims agent.

The official committee of unsecured creditors formed in the case
tapped Dechert LLP as its bankruptcy counsel, Klestadt Winters
Jureller Southard & Stevens, LLP as conflicts counsel, UBS
Securities LLC as investment banker, and Conway MacKenzie, LLC as
financial advisor.  Ferro Castro Neves Daltro & Gomide Advogados
is
the committee's Brazilian counsel.

The Ad Hoc Group of LATAM Bondholders tapped White & Case LLP as
counsel.

Glenn Agre Bergman & Fuentes, LLP, led by managing partner Andrew
Glenn and partner Shai Schmidt, has been retained as counsel to the
Ad Hoc Committee of Shareholders.




===================================
D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C
===================================

[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Haitian Migration Difficult to Control
--------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that controlling irregular Haitian
migration to the Dominican Republic has been a difficult task for
the governments in charge, while the cost of supporting these
immigrants in the Dominican Republic for childbirth care,
education, and security is high for the Dominican State.

Even if a deportation policy is established in the country, the
state has more than 22 billion pesos to support health care for
parturients, education, and actions of care and protection of the
Dominican-Haitian border to prevent the illegal entry of Haitian
citizens, according to Dominican Today.

The available resources fluctuate, but the reality is that the
number grows every year, the report notes.  For many years, the
Dominican Republic's largest investment as a result of Haitian
immigration has been in the health sector, the report relays.
According to Ministry of Public Health figures, the government has
invested 10 billion pesos per year in Haitian women in labor who
come to this side of the island to give birth over the last two
years, the report discloses.

Daniel Rivera, the current Minister of Health, explained that
previously, between 6 and 7 percent of Haitian women in labor
entered the country, but this did not affect the system, the report
relays.  As he explains, the figure is now concerning because it
has reached up to 40%, and in some areas of the country, the figure
is around 60% at the beginning of November, the report notes.
According to Public Health figures, the National District, Santo
Domingo province, Santiago, La Altagracia, and Valverde had the
highest number of births among Haitian women from January to
September 2021, the report adds.

                    About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.

TCRLA reported in April 2019 that the Dominican To related that
Juan Del Rosario of the UASD Economic Faculty cited a current
economic slowdown for the Dominican Republic and cautioned that if
the trend continues, growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del
Rosario said that if that happens, "we'll face difficulties in
meeting international commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

Fitch Ratings, in December 2021, revised the Outlook on Dominican
Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR)
to Stable from Negative and affirmed the IDRs at 'BB-'.  The
revision of the Outlook to Stable reflects the narrowing of
Dominican Republic's government deficit and financing needs since
Fitch's last review resulting in the stabilization of the
government debt/GDP ratio, as well as the investment-driven
economic momentum, reflected in the faster-than-expected economic
recovery in 2021 that Fitch expects to carry into above-potential
GDP growth during 2022 and 2023.

Standard & Poor's, also in December 2021, revised its outlook on
the Dominican Republic to stable from negative.  S&P also affirmed
its 'BB-' long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit
ratings and its 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings.  The
stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation of continued favorable
GDP growth and policy continuity over the next 12 to 18 months that
will likely stabilize the government's debt burden, despite lack of
progress with broader tax reforms, S&P said.  A rapid economic
recovery from the downturn because of the pandemic should mitigate
external and fiscal risks.

Moody's affirmed the Dominican Republic's long-term issuer and
senior unsecured ratings at Ba3 and maintained the stable outlook
in March 2021.




===============
P A R A G U A Y
===============

PARAGUAY: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Paraguay's Long-Term Foreign-Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB+' with a Stable Rating Outlook.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Ratings Affirmed, Stable Outlook: Paraguay's ratings reflect its
track record of prudent and consistent macroeconomic policies, low
government debt relative to rating peers, and robust external
liquidity. Its ratings are mainly constrained by weak governance
indicators, a shallow local capital market that narrows fiscal
financing flexibility, and vulnerability to adverse climactic
shocks reflected in high GDP volatility.

Severe Drought Affects Growth: A historic drought during the
2021-2022 agricultural harvest severely impacted soy production (a
60% loss). This led to a sharp downward revision in its 2022 growth
forecast, from 4% at end-2021 to -0.3% currently. The monthly
economic activity index has started to show positive figures (4%
yoy as of September). Fitch expects increased hydroelectricity
generation, higher water levels for transport, and expectations for
a more normal harvest in 2022-2023 to drive strong recovery in the
second half of the year.

Large Investments Support Rebound: Fitch forecasts growth of 5.8%
in 2023, absent a renewed drought in the 2022-2023 growing season.
Large investment projects, such as the Paracel pulp mill (the
nation's largest ever investment at more than USD3bn), will support
growth in 2023-2024. The maquila sector also continues to
demonstrate rapid growth (25% annually), supporting an important
diversification of the economy, especially as droughts may become
more frequent and severe in the future as a result of climate
change.

2023 Election Likely to Reflect Continuity: Paraguay will hold
presidential elections in April 2023. Fitch broadly expects policy
continuity regardless of the outcome and a relatively prudent
fiscal stance to be preserved. Recent U.S. government blacklisting
of key political players in the Colorado Party for alleged
corruption has upended the election cycle, removing one of the main
contenders. However, thus far this does not seem to have led to a
general backlash against the Colorado party nor presented
governability challenges.

IMF PCI to Support Reform Agenda: The outgoing government reached a
staff-level agreement with the IMF in October on a two-year
non-financing Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), which could
serve as an anchor for structural reforms. A procurement law was
recently approved by Congress, while reforms to the civil service,
pensions and the Fiscal Responsibility Law are pending. Paraguay's
relatively long transition period next year (elections take place
in April with new government starting in August) could open a
window of opportunity for advancement. Reforms to the 'Caja Fiscal'
(the pension system for public employees) are becoming more urgent,
as this is a growing source of pressures on the fiscal deficit.

Fiscal Consolidation Continues: Fitch forecasts a deficit of 3.2%
of GDP in 2022, slightly above the 3% target but down from 3.6% in
the 12 months through October. Revenue growth has been strong (10%
through October), supported by strong tax collections reflecting
high inflation and further yields from a 2018 tax reform. Current
spending has faced upward pressure (up 8% through October) due to
hikes in salaries and a higher interest burden. Capital expenditure
remains above pre-pandemic levels and could be the adjustment
variable in the final months of the year to reach the fiscal
deficit target.

Convergence to Fiscal Target: The government targets a 2.3% of GDP
deficit in its proposed 2023 budget and intends to return to the
1.5% of GDP deficit limit set in its Fiscal Responsibility Law by
2024. Achieving this is likely to rely on cuts to capital spending,
given limited appetite for further tax reforms, salary pressures,
and higher borrowing costs. Fitch views returning to the fiscal
rule as important for preserving fiscal credibility, which has been
undermined somewhat after several years of deviation from the rule
both before and after the pandemic. Fitch does not presently expect
any windfall profits for the government in its forecasts from
renegotiation of Annex C of the Itaipu Treaty, which determines the
dam's electricity sale price scheme, in 2023.

Financing Strategy Shifts Towards Multilaterals: The government
relied more heavily on multilateral borrowing to finance the 2022
deficit. The government has been proactive in reducing amortization
of its 2023 bond (its first Eurobond to mature) from a USD780
million original amount to USD238 million currently, through two
liability management operations in 2021 and in 2022. Fitch expects
Paraguay to retain favorable market access in 2023, but it will
come at a significantly higher cost given higher rates.

Local Market Issuance Stalls: High local interest rates and the
availability of lower cost multilateral financing has challenged
further development of the small local capital market, although
progress could resume when global rates normalize. The absence of a
long-term institutional investor base remains a challenge to market
development. As a result, the already high share of foreign
currency debt has been rising (Fitch projects 91% in 2022). Fitch
expects debt to GDP to reach 31.8% in 2022, well below the 'BB'
median of 54%, and stabilize thereafter as the deficit falls and
growth normalizes.

Inflation Continues Downward Path: Inflation has been falling since
June, reaching 8.1% as of October from a peak of 11.8% in April.
The central bank was proactive in increasing interest rates well
ahead of the Fed, starting its hiking cycle of 775 bps in August
2021, with the policy rate reaching 8.5% in September 2022.

Wide Current Account Deficit in 2022: Fitch forecasts the current
account deficit to widen to 4% of GDP in 2022 from 0.9% in 2021,
driven primarily by a large increase in imports (20% yoy through
October) from higher fuel and fertilizer prices and the
post-pandemic recovery in domestic demand. Exports declined by less
than expected (2% yoy through October) despite the shock to soy
exports, in part offset by a historic corn crop (up 57% over 2021).
Fitch forecasts the current account to remain in deficit but narrow
in the coming years, as soy production recovers but capital imports
related to Paracel and other large infrastructure projects
increase. International reserves have declined somewhat in 2022 as
the central bank has intervened in FX markets to manage the effects
of the drought but remain at favorable levels in terms of CXP
coverage (6.3 months).

GAFILAT Evaluation Passed: Paraguay passed the Financial Action
Task Force of Latin America (GAFILAT)'s evaluation of AML/CTF
issues this year, avoiding the so-called 'grey list' and associated
reputational risks and reflecting positively on institutional
capacity despite lingering governance challenges.

ESG - Governance: Paraguay has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5'
for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law,
Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank
Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in its proprietary Sovereign
Rating Model. Paraguay has a medium WBGI ranking at the 36th
percentile, reflecting a recent track record of peaceful political
transitions, a moderate level of rights for participation in the
political process, weak institutional capacity, weak rule of law
and a high level of corruption.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

Public Finances: A trend increase in debt to GDP ratio due to
failure to achieve fiscal consolidation.

Macro: Deterioration in the credibility of macroeconomic
policymaking, or a shock that worsens economic prospects and
external accounts - for example, due to a fall in commodity prices
or adverse climate conditions.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

Public Finances: Strengthening of fiscal flexibility through
expansion of the revenue base and lower debt/GDP ratio and/or
greater financing flexibility through development of the local
capital market and/or buildup of fiscal saving buffers.

Macro: Higher economic growth (in the context of macro stability)
that increases prospects for GDP per capita convergence with
higher-rated sovereigns.

Structural: Sustained improvement in governance indicators - for
example, as a result of the government's efforts to combat
corruption and strengthen public institutions.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Paraguay a score equivalent to a
rating of 'BB-' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR
scale.

In accordance with its rating criteria, Fitch's sovereign rating
committee decided not to adopt the score indicated by the SRM as
the starting point for its analysis because the SRM output has
migrated to 'BB-', but in its view this is potentially a temporary
deterioration. Consequently, the committee decided to adopt 'BB' as
the starting point for its analysis, unchanged from the prior
committee.

Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the
adopted SRM score to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its
QO, relative to SRM data and output, as follows:

- Macro: +1 notch, to reflect Paraguay's track record of prudent
and consistent macroeconomic policies that include a floating FX
regime, inflation targeting and a fiscal responsibility law.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating
model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centered
averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score
equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking
qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM
output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within its
criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected
in the SRM.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Paraguay has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Political Stability
and Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest
weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the
rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As Paraguay has
a percentile rank below 50 for the respective Governance Indicator,
this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

Paraguay has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Rule of Law,
Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as
World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's
SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key
rating driver with a high weight. As Paraguay has a percentile rank
below 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a
negative impact on the credit profile.

Paraguay has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the
World Bank Governance Indicators is relevant to the rating and a
rating driver. As Paraguay has a percentile rank below 50 for the
respective Governance Indicator, this has a negative impact on the
credit profile.

Paraguay has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and
is a rating driver for Paraguay, as for all sovereigns. As Paraguay
has a fairly recent restructuring of public debt in 2004, this has
a negative impact on the credit profile.

Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG
credit relevance, if present, is a score of '3'. This means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity(ies), either due to their nature or to the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).

   Entity/Debt                       Rating           Prior
   -----------                       ------           -----
Paraguay              LT IDR          BB+  Affirmed     BB+
                      ST IDR          B    Affirmed     B
                      LC LT IDR       BB+  Affirmed     BB+
                      LC ST IDR       B    Affirmed     B
                      Country Ceiling BB+  Affirmed     BB+

   senior unsecured   LT              BB+  Affirmed     BB+



=====================
P U E R T O   R I C O
=====================

ECSEM CORPORATION: Seeks to Hire Jimenez Vazquez as Accountant
--------------------------------------------------------------
Ecsem Corporation seeks approval from the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for
the District of Puerto Rico to employ Jimenez Vazquez & Associates,
PSC as its accountant.

The firm will assist the Debtor's legal counsel with the filing of
schedules; preparation of monthly operating reports and cash flow
forecasts; drafting of reorganization payment plan; and other
bankruptcy related activities.

Jimenez Vazquez & Associates will bill $165 per hour for services
rendered by Jose Victor Jimenez, president of the firm.

The firm received a retainer in the amount of $3,500.

As disclosed in court filings, Jimenez Vazquez & Associates does
not represent interests adverse to the Debtor's estate.

The firm can be reached through:

     Jose Victor Jimenez CPA, CVA
     Jimenez Vazquez & Associates, PSC
     P.O. Box 3774
     Bayamon, PR  00958
     Phone 787-447-0098
     Fax 1-831-309-7425
     Email: jvjimenez@jimenezvazquezcpa.com

                       About Ecsem
Corporation

Ecsem Corporation filed a Chapter 11 bankruptcy petition (Bankr.
D.P.R. Case No. 22-03006) on Oct. 19, 2022, with up to $500,000 in
both assets and liabilities. Judge Mildred Caban Flores oversees
the case.

The Debtor tapped Mary Ann Gandia-Fabian, Esq., at Gandia-Fabian
Law Office as legal counsel and Jimenez Vazquez & Associates, PSC
as accountant.


ESJ TOWERS: Oriental Bank Opposes Exclusivity Extension
-------------------------------------------------------
Oriental Bank, a secured creditor of ESJ Towers, Inc., asked the
U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Puerto Rico to deny the
company's bid to remain in control of its bankruptcy until early
next year.

ESJ on Oct. 3 proposed to extend its exclusive right to file a
Chapter 11 plan and solicit votes on the plan to Jan. 9 and March
10, respectively. The request was granted on an interim basis on
Oct. 5.

Attorney for Oriental Bank, Alfredo Fernandez-Martinez, Esq., at
Delgado & Fernandez, LLC, expressed concern the company will become
administratively insolvent within the next month given its lack of
profitability, substantial losses, and incurrence of huge
expenses.

The attorney cited ESJ's monthly operating report for August, which
reflects losses in the amount of -$481,948, and cumulative losses
of -$663,987 since the filing of the company's bankruptcy case.

"Cash projections provided by [ESJ] to Oriental show that [ESJ]
will run out of cash in December of this year, during the period of
the requested exclusivity extension, rendering the extension
request futile," Mr. Fernandez-Martinez said.

ESJ's bid to keep exclusive control of its bankruptcy case also
drew opposition from an association of homeowners.

"The granting of an extension would make creditors the hostage of
debtor given that it has not made any effort to resolve many
pending matters including debtor's failure to provide details of
specific units and intervals and proof of ownership of assets
claimed and the payment of post-petition administrative fees," ESJ
Towers Condominium Homeowners Association said in court papers.

Oriental Bank can be reached through:

     Alfredo Fernandez-Martinez, Esq.
     Maristella Sanchez Rodriguez, Esq.
     Carlos R. Baralt Suarez, Esq.  
     Delgado & Fernandez, LLC
     P.O. Box 11750
     Fernandez Juncos Station
     San Juan, PR 00910-1750
     Phone: (787) 274-1414/(787) 764-8241
     Email: afernandez@delgadofernandez.com
     Email: msanchez@delgadofernandez.com
     Email: cbaralt@delgadofernandez.com

ESJ HOA can be reached through:

     Jose A. Bague-Soto, Esq.
     DTS Law, LLC
     221 Plaza, Suite 801
     221 Ponce de Leon Ave.
     San Juan, PR 00917-1804
     Phone: (787) 754-8700
     Email: jbague@dtslaw.com

                         About ESJ Towers

ESJ Towers, Inc. owns the ESJ Towers in Carolina, P.R. The luxury
apartments and condo units at ESJ Towers have direct access to Isla
Verde Beach, widely considered one of the best in Puerto Rico.

ESJ sought protection under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code
(Bankr. D.P.R. Case No. 22-01676) on June 10, 2022, with as much as
50 million in both assets and liabilities. ESJ President Keith St.
Clair signed the petition.

Judge Enrique S. Lamoutte Inclan oversees the case.

The Debtor tapped Charles A. Cuprill, Esq., at Charles A. Cuprill,
PSC Law Offices as legal counsel; Ramon Luis Nieves, Esq., at RL
Legal Consulting Services, LLC as special counsel; Dage Consulting
CPAS, PSC as financial advisor; and De Angel & Compania, CPA, LLC
as auditor.

The U.S. Trustee for Region 21 appointed an official committee of
unsecured creditors on Sept. 12, 2022. MRO Attorneys at Law, LLC
and Dage Consulting CPAS, PSC serve as the committee's legal
counsel and financial advisor, respectively.




===========================================================
S T .   V I N C E N T   A N D   T H E   G R E N A D I N E S
===========================================================

ST. VINCENT & GRENADINE: Recovering From Pandemic, IMF Says
-----------------------------------------------------------
On November 14, 2022, the Executive Board of the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with St.
Vincent and the Grenadines.

St. Vincent and the Grenadines is recovering from the pandemic and
2021 volcanic eruptions. The authorities' decisive policy
responses-supported by two IMF Rapid Credit Facility (RCF)
disbursements and financing from other International Financial
Institutions-helped protect lives and livelihoods and contain
economic scars. Output decline in 2020 was the lowest in the ECCU
and the economy is estimated to have grown by 0.8 percent in 2021
supported by strong post-volcanic eruption reconstruction activity.
Nevertheless, the recovery is facing headwinds from inflation
pressures reflecting higher import prices. Despite the authorities'
strong efforts to contain fiscal deficits, critical responses to
the shocks pushed up public debt to about 89 percent of GDP as of
end-2021. The financial system has weathered the shocks relatively
well so far with adequate capital and liquidity buffers.

The economy is projected to grow by 5 percent this year, supported
by large-scale investment projects and recoveries in tourism and
agriculture. Growth is projected to strengthen further in 2023 as
large-scale construction projects get into full swing. External
inflation pressures are expected to raise the annual inflation to
5.8 percent in 2022. The outlook is subject to significant downside
risks, stemming primarily from an abrupt slowdown in trading
partners' growth, potential delays in investment projects including
due to supply chain disruptions, and the ever-present threat of
frequent natural disasters.

The authorities seek to rebuild fiscal buffers over the medium term
and are balancing the need to support the vulnerable, building
resilience, and maintaining fiscal prudence. While the primary
deficit is estimated to widen as the port construction starts, the
primary balance excluding pandemic-, volcano-, and port-related
spending is expected to improve from -0.4 percent of GDP in 2021 to
1.6 percent in 2022. They also remain committed to reaching the
regional debt ceiling and the medium-term fiscal strategy set out
in the 2021 RCF.

                     Executive Board Assessment

Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal.
They commended the authorities' proactive responses to the pandemic
and volcanic eruptions that reduced economic scarring and
contributed to a small positive growth in 2021. They noted that
while the outlook is favorable, supported by large-scale investment
projects and continued recovery of agriculture and tourism, it is
subject to significant downside risks and the economy remains
vulnerable to shocks.

Directors agreed that near-term priorities continue to be health
and reconstruction spending and supporting the vulnerable, while
maintaining fiscal prudence. Directors encouraged the authorities
to keep the generalized fiscal relief temporary as announced and
continue to enhance the coverage and targeting of the social safety
net. As the economy recovers, fiscal policy should move from income
support to active labor market policies (ALMP) to facilitate
training and employment.

Directors stressed the importance of rebuilding fiscal buffers,
including by fully operationalizing the Fiscal Responsibility
Framework (FRF), to withstand shocks and reinforce fiscal
sustainability. They welcomed the authorities' continued commitment
to reaching the regional debt target and the medium-term fiscal
strategy set out in the 2021 Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). They
noted that it is important to recalibrate and fully operationalize
the FRF to underpin the commitment and signal a credible
medium-term fiscal plan. Directors underscored the need for
continued complementary fiscal institutional reforms to support the
effective implementation of the FRF, and also called for building
additional buffers and preparing contingency plans, which will be
key to increasing resilience to external shocks.

Directors emphasized the need for continued broad-based structural
reforms to support inclusive growth, promote employment, and
bolster resilience to natural disasters. They noted that the recent
and ongoing key infrastructure projects are instrumental for
addressing supply-side constraints to growth and improving
structural resilience. Directors welcomed the authorities' efforts
to further improve the business climate, including through the
planned new Investment Act, and to invest into human capital by
improving the scope, coverage, and effectiveness of technical and
vocational education and training (TVET) programs, and considered
that the TVET programs should be complemented by ALMP to facilitate
employment. Directors also supported the authorities' efforts to
further develop the tourism sector to contribute more to the
economy.

Directors noted that the financial sector remains broadly stable.
They stressed the need to closely monitor asset quality following
the end of the loan moratoria and bolster the provisioning levels.
Directors considered that the financial authorities should continue
to strengthen the supervisory and regulatory frameworks and improve
crisis preparedness. They also welcomed the authorities' strong
efforts to strengthen the AML/CFT framework.


                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
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Chapman, Editors.

Copyright 2022.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2746.

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