/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/220311.mbx        T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Friday, March 11, 2022, Vol. 23, No. 45

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

ARCOS DORADOS: Fitch Affirms 'BB' Foreign Curr. IDR,Outlook Stable


B R A Z I L

CAN B CORP: Signs Distribution Agreement With PrimeX
COSAN SA: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Neg.
SAMARCO MINERACAO: Creditors Reject New Restructuring Plan


C O L O M B I A

PATRIMONIO AUTONOMO: Fitch Assigns 'BB+' Rating to Loans and Notes


D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Expert Predicts Inflation Will Reach 13%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Government Plans to Absorb Oil Hike


J A M A I C A

JAMAICA: Fitch Affirms B+ LT Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Stable
JAMAICA: NIR Records Increase in February
JAMAICA: Remittances Decline in January


P U E R T O   R I C O

BANCO POPULAR: To Close LifeMiles Credit Cards by March 31


V E N E Z U E L A

CITGO PETROLEUM: Sales Process Put in Motion

                           - - - - -


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A R G E N T I N A
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ARCOS DORADOS: Fitch Affirms 'BB' Foreign Curr. IDR,Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.'s Long-Term
Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured
notes at 'BB'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.

The rating reflects improved credit metrics and the company's
resilient business profile. Fitch expects Arcos to refinance its
2023 bond outstanding (USD202 million as of Sep. 30, 2021). The
rating also reflect the challenging environment in the region due
to high inflation and elevated interest rates, as well as increased
macro uncertainties.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

EBITDA Recovery: Fitch expects Arcos Dorados' performance to
improve in 2021-2022 due to the economic recovery in most regions
where the company operates, a gradual opening of dine-in services
as mandated restrictions are gradually relaxed, and strong sales
from drive-thru, delivery and digital. Drive-thru and delivery
generated 49% of systemwide sales in the third quarter of 2021 and
digital sales, which include delivery, mobile app and self-order
kiosks, contributed 36%.

Fitch forecasts EBITDA to reach USD303 million in 2022 compared to
about USD270 million in 2021 (USD68 million in 2020) based on the
company's capacity to manage costs inflation (food and headcounts)
through price management initiatives and stores openings.

Deleveraging Expected: Fitch expects lease-adjusted net leverage to
fall to about 3.3x in 2021 (6.9x in 2020) and trend toward 3.0x in
2022, reflecting higher EBITDA. The company also benefited from
debt derivatives gains, USD93 million in 3Q21, which had a positive
impact on net debt, in line with the company's policy to hedge 50%
of its USD denominated debt.

Neutral FCF: Fitch expects FCF to be neutral due to higher capex in
2022. Capex, mainly related to openings and store modernization, is
expected to reach USD180 million to USD200 million in 2022,
compared to about USD110 million to USD130 million estimated in
2021. The company expects to open at least 55 new restaurants in
2022 and 200 or more locations from 2022 to 2024. The number of
free-standing restaurant openings will be about twice the number
opened during the most recent, pre-pandemic growth cycle
(2017-2019).

Country Ceiling: Arcos Dorados is headquartered in Argentina (CCC),
but its cash flow generation is heavily concentrated in Brazil
(BB-/Negative), which is estimated to account for 38% of revenues
and 52% of adjusted EBITDA in 2021. The Long-Term Foreign Currency
IDR is not constrained by Brazil's Country Ceiling (BB), given the
company's ability to cover hard currency debt service with
cumulative cash flow from higher-rated countries, such as Chile,
Mexico, Colombia, Uruguay, and Panama.

Solid Business Profile: Arcos Dorados' ratings reflect a solid
business position as the sole franchisee of McDonald's restaurants
across Latin America, benefitting from the McDonald's brand.
However, the company faces various regional economic challenges.
The company operates or franchises 2,263 McDonald's restaurants and
265 McCafes in 20 countries as of Sep. 30, 2021. About 70% of these
restaurants are operated by Arcos Dorados, while the remainder are
franchised restaurants.

McDonald's Franchise Strength: The ratings incorporate the strength
of McDonald's as a franchisor and the longstanding relationship
with Arcos Dorados' owners and management. The master franchise
agreement (MFA) sets strict strategic, commercial and financial
guidelines for Arcos Dorados' operations, which support the
operating and financial stability of the business and the
underlying value of the McDonald's brand in the region.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Arcos Dorados' ratings reflect its solid business position as the
sole franchisee of McDonald's restaurants across Latin America,
benefiting from the iconic McDonald's brand. The company is
confronted by several economic challenges facing the region, as
most of Arcos Dorados' EBITDA is generated in Brazil. The company's
geographical diversification and presence in several countries in
Latin America outside of Brazil and Argentina support the Foreign
Currency IDR.

Arcos Dorados' credit profile compares favorably to Alsea, S.A.B.
de C.V.'s (BB-) financial profile due to higher leverage and lesser
financial flexibility. Alsea's ratings incorporate its history of
debt-financed acquisitions that have resulted in higher than
expected leverage levels. The business profile is constrained by
the company's smaller size relative to its international peers such
as McDonald's, Starbucks Corporation (BBB/Stable) and Darden
Restaurants, Inc. (BBB/Stable). The company also reported lower
profitability than its peers due to its presence in less mature
countries.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's key assumptions within the rating case for the issuer
include:

-- EBITDA of about USD303 million in 2022;

-- Capex of USD200 million in 2022;

-- Lease-adjusted net leverage moving toward 3x by 2022.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

-- Net lease-adjusted debt levels below 3.5x on a sustained
    basis;

-- Strong liquidity, positive FCF and refinancing of the 2023.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

-- Adjusted net leverage exceeding 4.5x on a sustained basis
    beyond 2021;

-- Weak liquidity position.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Adequate Liquidity: Fitch views Arcos Dorados' liquidity as strong
due to its solid cash position of USD207 million as of Sept. 30,
2021, committed bank lines, including a USD25 million of undrawn
committed revolving credit facility with JP Morgan, and manageable
long-term debt maturity profile. Arcos Dorados' debt consists of
two U.S. notes maturing in 2023 (USD203 million outstanding as of
3Q21) and 2027. The company has little debt in the short-term.

ISSUER PROFILE

Arcos Dorados is the world's largest McDonald's franchisee in terms
of system-wide sales. It has the exclusive right to own, operate
and grant franchises of McDonald's restaurants in 20 countries and
territories in Latin America and the Caribbean.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.




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B R A Z I L
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CAN B CORP: Signs Distribution Agreement With PrimeX
----------------------------------------------------
Can B Corp. entered into a definitive agreement with PrimeX LLC on
Jan. 12 2022, for the distribution of certain of the Company's
products in Brazil and other potential international markets.

Pursuant to the Agreement, the Company will supply PrimeX with its
CBD and non-CBD products for distribution in Brazil at a 50/50 net
revenue share, with all expenses relating to such product to be
reimbursed to the Company before the revenue split.  In addition,
the Company has agreed to white label products for PrimeX at a
price of the Company's cost plus 25%.  

PrimeX will be the exclusive provider of Company products in Brazil
and will have the option to enter additional international
markets.

The Company has agreed to provide requested samples to PrimeX at
cost.  The Company will assist PrimeX with marketing and USA
compliance relating to the products.  The Company has agreed to
extend PrimeX 60 day payment terms with a line of credit up to
$200,000.

The term of the Agreement is two years with one-year automatic
extensions unless either party terminates before extension.  The
Agreement contains indemnification, confidentiality,
non-disparagement and non-solicitation obligations for both
parties.

                         About Can B Corp

Headquartered in Hicksville New York, Canbiola, Inc. (now known as
Can B Corp) -- http://www.canbiola.com-- develops, produces, and
sells products and delivery devices containing CBD. Cannabidiol
("CBD") is one of nearly 85 naturally occurring compounds
(cannabinoids) found in industrial hemp (it is also contained in
marijuana).  The Company's products contain CBD derived from Hemp
and include products such as oils, creams, moisturizers, isolate,
and gel caps.  In addition to offering white labeled products,
Canbiola has developed its own line of proprietary products, as
well as seeking synergistic value through acquisitions of products
and brands in the Hemp industry.

Can B Corp. reported a loss and comprehensive loss of $5.72 million
for the year ended Dec. 31, 2020, compared to a loss and
comprehensive loss of $5.90 million for the year ended Dec. 31,
2019.  As of Sept. 30, 2021, the Company had $14.61 million in
total assets, $9.01 million in total liabilities, and $5.61 million
in total stockholders' equity.

Hauppauge, NY-based BMKR, LLP, the Company's auditor since 2014,
issued a "going concern" qualification in its report dated April
12, 2021, citing that the Company incurred a net loss of $5,851,512
during the year ended Dec. 31, 2020 and as of that date, had an
accumulated deficit of $30,521,025.  Due to recurring losses from
operations and the accumulated deficit, the Company stated that
substantial doubt exists about its ability to continue as a going
concern.


COSAN SA: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Neg.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Cosan S.A.'s (Cosan) Long-Term Foreign
Currency (FC) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB', Local Currency
(LC) IDR at 'BB+' and National Long-Term Rating at 'AAA(bra)'. The
Rating Outlook is Negative for the FC IDR and Stable for the LC IDR
and National Scale Rating. Fitch has also affirmed the ratings on
all related cross border debts at 'BB', as they are unconditionally
and irrevocably guaranteed by Cosan. The ratings of Cosan's
unsecured BRL-denominated debentures have been affirmed at
'AAA(bra)'.

Cosan's credit profile is supported by its strong and diversified
asset portfolio underpinned by leading market share positions in
key business segments. The ratings incorporate the expectation that
the Group will report robust cash flow generation, preserve strong
liquidity and net leverage below 3.0x as per Fitch's adjustments
over the next three years, as Rumo and Compass' cash flow
generation capacity improves and Raizen (the combined denomination
of Raizen S.A and Raizen Energia S.A) and Comgas pay meaningful
dividends to the Group. The Negative Outlook for Cosan's FC IDR
follows the outlook for Brazil's sovereign rating.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Adjusted Consolidated Financials: Fitch's analysis is based on
Cosan's adjusted consolidated financials, which excludes 70% of
Rumo's and 100% of Comgas's numbers, and includes dividends
received from Comgas and Raizen in adjusted EBITDA. The
proportional consolidation of 30% of Rumo recognizes the economic
rather than the voting control of the subsidiary as per Fitch's
Corporate Rating Criteria. Comgas is deconsolidated due to its
insulated and ring-fenced structure. Raizen, the Joint Venture with
Shell, has its own financing and investing strategies and Cosan's
access to its cash is also limited to dividends received.

Robust and Diversified Asset Portfolio: Cosan's credit profile is
supported by its strong and diversified asset portfolio underpinned
by leading sugar and ethanol business, sales of fuels and
lubricants, railroad operations and natural gas activity. Raizen
(FC and LC IDRs BBB/Negative and Long-Term National Scale Rating
AAA[bra]/Stable]) is the leading global producer of sugar and
ethanol and energy from sugar cane bagasse and currently owns more
than 15% of Brazil's sugar cane crushing capacity following Biosev
acquisition. The company is also the second largest fuel
distributor in Brazil, with over 20% volumes market share in 2021
operating under the Shell brand.

Cosan's stake into Compass Gas e Energia S.A. (FC IDR
'BB'/Negative; LC IDR BB+/Stable; and National Scale Rating
AAA[bra]/Stable) provides access to the low-to-moderate natural gas
distribution industry. Compass' key asset is Companhia de Gas de
Sao Paulo - Comgas (FC IDR BB/Negative; LC IDR BBB-/Negative; and
National Scale Rating AAA(bra)/Stable). With operations in the
state of Sao Paulo, Comgas is the largest company in this sector in
Brazil, and has robust credit metrics and solid business profile.
Comgas's ratings benefit from the presence of long-term concession
contracts with pass-through mechanisms of non-manageable costs and
manageable supply risks, with predictable and stable operating cash
flow.

Cosan's stake into Rumo (FC IDR BB/Negative; LC IDR BB+/Stable; and
National Scale Rating AAA[bra]/Stable) enhances the Group's cash
flow visibility in an economically resilient industry. Rumo
benefits from its market position as the sole railroad
transportation company in Brazil's South and Midwest regions
through five concessions that operate more than 14 thousand
kilometers of tracks with access to Brazil's three main ports. Due
to a low-cost structure and solid presence in transportation of
agricultural goods, the company enjoys solid competitive advantages
over truck transportation, which limits volume volatilities over
different economic cycles.

Strong Cash Flow Generation: The Group should report adjusted
EBITDA of BRL5.0 billion in 2022 and 2023, including dividends from
Raizen and Comgas as per Fitch adjustments, with an average EBITDA
margin of 44%. This compares with adjusted EBITDA plus dividends of
BRL2.6 billion in 2021. Fitch expects higher EBITDA from Rumo and
Compass in 2022, and increased dividends from Raizen.

Rumo's EBITDA is expected to increase to BRL3.7 billion in 2022
from BRL3 billion in 2021, while Compass' EBITDA without Comgas
should improve to BRL274 million from negative BRL483 million over
the same period. Raizen is expected to pay BRL3 billion in
dividends in 2022, of which Cosan's share is 44%. Comgas' dividends
are expected to be BRL1.9 billion in 2022.

Cosan is expected to report adjusted cashflow from operations of
BRL1.7 billion and BRL2.4 billion in 2022 and 2023, respectively,
and base case projections incorporate annual investments around
BRL1.9 billion and dividends of BRL900 million. Fitch expects
adjusted FCF to be negative at BRL1 billion in 2022 and BRL388
million in 2023.

Moderate Leverage: Cosan's adjusted net leverage should decline to
an average of 2.6x in 2022 and 2023 as per Fitch adjustments, as
Rumo's and Compass's EBITDA and dividends paid out by Raizen
increase. In 2021, adjusted net leverage was 4.3x. The Group's
adjusted net debt is expected to average BRL13.1 billion over the
next two years, comparing with BRL11.1 billion in December 2021.
The Group hedges all of its exposure to foreign exchange (FX) risk
through swaps and other derivative instruments.

Cosan's gross debt level at the holding company is high. Cosan's
net debt to EBITDA plus dividends is expected to remain around
6.0x, and the company has the challenge to preserve EBITDA plus
dividends received to interest paid above 1.5x on a sustained basis
to avoid a rating pressure. As of Dec. 31 2021, Cosan's debt at the
holding level of BRL12.6 billion consisted of intercompany loans of
BRL6.9 billion, which represent the 2023 and 2027 bond issuances by
Cosan's fully owned subsidiaries, the USD750 million 2029 notes
from Cosan Limited and BRL3.9 billion in debentures, of which
BRL1.7 billion came from Cosan LogĂ­stica.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Cosan's ratings compare unfavorably with Votorantim S.A's. (VSA; LT
FC/LC IDR BBB-/Stable and National Scale Rating AAA[bra]/Stable),
one of Latin America's largest industrial conglomerates. VSA has a
diversified business portfolio, strong market position in the
industries it participates in, and geographic diversification with
strong operations in the Americas, while Cosan's assets are
primarily located in Brazil and with a representative share of its
cash flow generation capacity in the more volatile S&E business.

Cosan is in a weaker position in terms of cash flow generation and
leverage compared to VSA, but compares well with Grupo KUO, S.A.B.
de C.V.'s (KUO; LT FC/LC IDR BB/Stable), a Mexican Group with
diversified business portfolio in the consumer, automotive and
chemical industries.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's key assumptions within its rating case for the issuer
include:

-- Adjusted consolidated revenues of BRL10.6 billion and BRL11.9
    billion in 2022 and 2023, respectively;

-- Average EBITDA margin, excluding dividends received, of 18% in
    2022 and 2023;

-- Raizen and Comgas will pay total dividends of BRL3.2 billion
    in 2022 and BRL2.7 billion 2023 to Cosan;

-- Average annual investments of BRL1.9 billion, of which Cosan's
    30% stake into Rumo should account for 64% in 2022 and 90% in
    2023;

-- Dividends paid out of BRL900 million in 2022 and 2023.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

-- Increased performance of Rumo and Compass and/or higher-than
    anticipated dividends from Comgas and Raizen leading to
    adjusted cash flow generation for the Group above Fitch
    expectations;

-- Adjusted consolidated net leverage below 2.0x on a sustainable
    basis;

-- The revision of the Outlook on Brazil's sovereign rating to
    Stable from Negative would trigger a revision of the Outlook
    for Cosan's FC IDR.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

-- Higher than expected negative FCF over the next two years;

-- Adjusted consolidated net leverage above 3.0x on a sustainable
    basis;

-- Net debt to EBITDA plus dividends received above 5.0x, in
    conjunction with EBITDA plus dividends received to interest
    paid below 1.5x and weaker liquidity position at the holding
    company level.

-- A downgrade of the sovereign rating may also trigger a
    downgrade of Cosan's FC IDR and ratings for the associated
    bond issuances.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Strong Liquidity: Cosan Group is expected to maintain strong
liquidity position over the next three years, benefiting from
robust dividend flow paired with a well-laddered debt maturity
schedule. The Group should report cash position near BRL9 billion
and short-term debt of BRL1.6 billion in Dec. 31, 2022, as per
Fitch calculations.

This compares with cash and short-term debt positions of BRL11
billion and BRL1.3 billion, respectively, reported for 2021. The
Group's strong financial flexibility relative to its access to the
debt and capital markets, in combination with dividends received
from its investees ensures adequate refinancing capacity for
Cosan.

The holding company had a cash position of BRL2.9 billion and
BRL12.6 billion of total debt as of Dec. 31, 2021, of which BRL572
million matures in 2022. Around 80% of its debt is due in five
years and beyond, and Cosan's liquidity is reinforced by an undrawn
standby credit facility of BRL250 million.

ISSUER PROFILE

Cosan S.A (Cosan) is the holding company of a Brazilian group with
presence in sugar, ethanol and energy production, natural gas
distribution, railroad operations and distribution of fuels &
lubricants. Cosan's credit profile incorporates the representative
market shares the company holds in its businesses.

SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS

Net derivative balances for FX risk management have been added to
Cosan's adjusted debt figures.

Cosan's Fitch-adjusted consolidated financials for 2021 depart from
published consolidated financials minus 70% of Rumo and 100% of
Comgas. Cosan's adjusted consolidated EBITDA includes dividends
paid out by Raizen and Comgas. Prior to 2021, Fitch-adjusted
consolidated financials depart from published consolidated
financials plus 30% of Rumo and minus 100% of Comgas. Dividends
paid out by Raizen and Comgas included to Fitch-adjusted
consolidated figures.

Principal and Interest on Rumo's concession assets (resulted from
IFRS-16) are considered as "rental expense" and impacts Cosan's
Fitch-adjusted consolidated EBITDA.

Rumo's confirming (reverse factoring) are considered as debt and is
also included in Cosan's Fitch-adjusted consolidated debt
position.


SAMARCO MINERACAO: Creditors Reject New Restructuring Plan
----------------------------------------------------------
Cristiane Lucchesi, writing for Bloomberg News, reports that
creditors from Samarco, jointly owned by Vale SA and BHP Group Ltd,
filed a court document rejecting the new restructuring plan
proposed by the company in February 2022.

Bondholders including Bluebay Emerging Market Aggregate Bond Fund
and Canyon Capital Finance said the company's new plan is the same
presented eight months ago, previously rejected, with only "tiny
modifications."

They said that under the new plan, Vale and BHP would still not pay
for what creditors see as their share of the repairs from Samarco's
2015 deadly dam disaster.

                About Samarco Mineracao SA

Samarco Mineracao SA is a Brazilian mining joint venture between
BHP Group and Vale SA.  It serves as an iron ore processing
company. The company provides blast furnace, direct reduction,
sinter feed, as well as low and normal silica content pellets.

On April 9, 2021, the Debtor filed a voluntary petition for
judicial reorganization in the 2nd Business State Court for the
Belo Horizonte District of Minas Gerais in Brazil pursuant to
Brazilian Federal Law No. 11,101 of Feb. 9, 2005.

Samarco Mineracao filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy recognition
(Bankr. S.D.N.Y. Case No. 21-10754) on April 19, 2021, in New
York,
to seek U.S. recognition of its Brazilian proceedings.

The Debtor's U.S. counsel is Thomas S. Kessler of Cleary Gottlieb
Steen & Hamilton LLP.




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C O L O M B I A
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PATRIMONIO AUTONOMO: Fitch Assigns 'BB+' Rating to Loans and Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned the following ratings to Patrimonio
Autonomo Union del Sur, in connection with the Rumichaca - Pasto
toll road project in Colombia:

-- USD Loan A: USD125 million at SOFR + 2.375% due in May 2030
    'BB+'; Outlook Stable;

-- USD Loan B: USD152 million at SOFR + 2.75% years 1-7 and 3%
    years 8 until maturity, due in May 2037 'BB+'; Outlook Stable;

-- COP Loan: COP1,019.5 billion at IPC+ 5.25% due in April 2030
    'BB+'; Outlook Stable;

-- UVR Notes: COP1,027.5 billion at 6.6% due in February 2041
    'BB+'; Outlook Stable;

Fitch has also affirmed the national ratings for all of the debt at
'AA+(col)' with a Positive Outlook.

Final pricing of the debt was slightly below the assumptions
considered in Fitch's projections, which allowed for a final debt
size that is somewhat higher than the initially projected amount.
Updated metrics remain consistent with the assigned rating.

RATING RATIONALE

The ratings reflect the project's robust concession agreement
structure, which limits exposure to revenue risk via traffic
top-ups and grantor payments. The ratings are further supported by
an adequate tariff adjustment mechanism that increases toll rates
by inflation. The ratings consider a strong debt structure,
characterized by robust reserve accounts, cash sweep mechanisms
that largely protect the transaction from traffic performance being
materially above or below expected, and a satisfactory distribution
test.

A 12-month debt service reserve comes from a letter of credit (LOC)
provided by investment-grade (IG) entities for the USD tranches and
from a liquidity facility provided by the
infrastructure-specialized investment manager, Union Para La
Infraestructura (UPLI), for the COP tranches. Fitch's rating case
minimum loan life coverage ratio (LLCR) of 1.3x is adequate for the
rating category according to applicable criteria and revenue
profile, reflecting the entity's strong dependence on the grantor
payments, as toll revenues roughly represent 30% of the project's
total revenues.

The Stable Outlook on the 'BB+' international ratings reflect the
transaction's exposure to the credit quality of the National
Infrastructure Agency (ANI). Fitch views ANI as a credit-linked
entity to the Government of Colombia (Local Currency Issuer Default
Rating [IDR] BB+/Stable).

The Positive Outlook on the 'AA+(col)' national scale ratings
reflects Fitch's expectation that once the remaining termination
certificates of the Functional Units (FUs) are received, the
project will no longer be exposed to residual completion risks and
the rating would be consistent with the highest category on the
national scale.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Limited Volume Risk (Volume Risk: Midrange): Traffic at the
currently operating toll station, El Placer, has certain degree of
volatility. Tariffs at El Placer and El Contadero are somewhat
high, but the project's substantial time savings mitigate the risk
of elasticity compared with competing roads. Nonetheless, about 70%
of the project's revenues consist of ANI's contributions, mostly
streaming from top-up payments, future budget allocations (FBA),
and 90% of the difference between the estimated toll revenues at
the shadow toll booth of Ipiales and the collected toll revenues at
El Contadero.

Fitch believes the ANI payment obligations under the concession
agreement are consistent with the project's credit quality.

Sources of revenue are subject to infrastructure availability,
service levels and quality standards based on the fulfillment of
indicators provided in the concession agreement. There are clearly
defined penalty deduction mechanisms in the concession agreement
with robust cure periods, and deductions are legally capped at 10%.
Additionally, fines imposed on the Concessionaire and penalty
clauses in case of early termination of the agreement are limited
by the contract. The midrange assessment reflects the road's
traffic characteristics solely as per applicable criteria; however,
exposure to traffic risk is limited due to the concession
framework.

Inflation-adjusted tolls (Price Risk: Midrange): Tariffs are
adjusted annually by the Colombian inflation rate at the beginning
of the year, and toll rates are somewhat elevated compared to
Colombian peers. Still, if the net present value of toll
collections received by the eighth, 13th, 18th, and last year of
the concession is below guaranteed values, the ANI must cover any
shortfalls after deductions.

Adequate Maintenance Plan (Infrastructure Development and Renewal:
Midrange): The project depends on a moderately developed capital
and maintenance plan to be implemented directly by the
concessionaire. The program will be funded mainly from project cash
flows, and the concession agreement does not contemplate hand-back
requirements. However, the concessionaire must continuously operate
and maintain the road in compliance with pre-established
contractual requirements.

Infrata Limited (Infrata), who acts as the independent engineer
(IE), confirmed the concessionaire has the experience and the
ability to operate the project successfully. Per the IE, the O&M
plan is reasonable, and the budget allowances are at the upper end
of the range compared to similar 4G Colombian projects,
anticipating reduced cost overruns. The structure benefits from a
robust 12-month forward-looking O&M reserve account (OMRA) and a
dynamic major maintenance accrual account funded to the extent
resources are available equivalent to 100% of the forward-looking
maintenance costs forecasted for the first year, 66% of expenses to
be incurred during the second year, and 33% for the following third
year.

Robust Debt Structure (Debt Structure: Stronger): The project's
debt is fully amortizing, senior secured, comprising USD-, UVR- and
COP-denominated financings. USD-denominated debts are matched with
USD-linked revenues settled in COP as 57% of future budget
allocations are USD-linked but are partially exposed to a variable
interest rate. UVR denominated debts are indexed to inflation;
similarly, the COP debt interest rate is exposed to inflation
fluctuations.

Structural features include 12-month debt service reserve accounts
(DSRA) in the form of a LOC provided by IG entities and a liquidity
facility from UPLI, and cash sweep mechanisms for traffic over and
underperformance, according to pre-established debt service
coverage ratio (DSCR) levels. While the UVR tranche legal maturity
dates extend beyond the minimum concession termination date, deemed
as a negative feature, Fitch believes it is highly unlikely the
toll collection present value will be reached by the concession's
25th anniversary.

Fitch does not currently rate UPLI. However, Fitch is aware of the
creditworthiness of some of the entities that have committed
investments in UPLI or of its holding companies. This is the case
with Atlantic Security Bank, whose parent company is an
investment-grade counterparty. The same applies to the regulated
obligatory pension funds managed by Skandia Pensiones y Cesantias
S.A., AFP Proteccion, and Porvenir S.A. Fitch rates the funds'
underlying assets 'AAAf(col)' and views their management quality as
excellent.

Together with the characteristics of the liquidity facility, the
nature of the investment commitments, and the quality of the
underlying asset, this has resulted in Fitch giving credit to the
investment commitments associated with the investors, and
ultimately, to give partial credit to UPLI's commitment to the
project.

Financial Profile: The most relevant financial metric for the
project is LLCR, given the transaction's debt structure. While
DSCRs are projected below 1.0x under Fitch's rating case due to the
assumed delays to ANI's payment obligations, the existence of cash
sweep mechanisms and reserve accounts support liquidity in case
top-up payments or future budget allocations are not timely
received.

The debt's legal amortization profile offers additional flexibility
for the structure as it considers ANI's maximum payment delays
before triggering an early concession termination. Fitch's base and
rating case minimum LLCR is 1.3x in 2022, which is adequate for the
rating category according to applicable criteria and also when
compared against other similarly rated transactions, particularly
in light of the project's low exposure to volume risk.

PEER GROUP

Rumichaca is comparable to PA Autopista Rio Magdalena (ARM; BB+/RWN
and AA+[col]/RWN). Both projects are part of Colombia's 4G toll
road program and share the same assessments for all risk
attributes. ARM has a slightly lower contribution of toll revenues
to total revenues than Rumichaca (roughly 20% versus 30%), which
makes the latter more exposed to volume risk. Although ARM and
Rumichaca have similar LLCRs at 1.3x, ARM is still highly exposed
to completion risk. ARM and Rumichaca's ratings are both
constrained by the counterparty risk of the ANI.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

-- Deterioration in Fitch's view regarding the credit quality of
    ANI's grantor obligations;

-- Unexpected and material difficulties in achieving the full
    certificate of completion for the remaining FUs.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

-- Improvement on Fitch's view regarding the credit quality of
    ANI's grantor obligations;

-- For the national scale rating only: Obtention of the
    completion certificates for the remaining FUs.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance
and Infrastructure issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario
(defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in
a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating
horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative
direction) of three notches over three years. The complete span of
best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating
categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario
credit ratings are based on historical performance.

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

The project placed fixed-rate notes denominated in UVR for the
equivalent of COP1,027,500 million legally due in February 2041.
The notes are senior pari passu with a COP-denominated loan for
COP1,019,500 million due in April 2030 and with two additional
USD-denominated loans of up to USD125 million due in May 2030 and
USD152 million due in May 2037. The COP loan will pay interest at
Colombia's consumer price index (CPI) plus a spread.

The issuance proceeds were used primarily to pay amounts
outstanding under the previous project debt (Mini-Perm Facility)
and its associated hedge arrangements, fund reserve accounts, pay
financing-related expenses, finance a portion of the remaining
construction works, pay a subordinated shareholder loan and a
dividend recapitalization amount. The project's cash flows are
administered through a separate trust. All assets and liabilities
of the project were transferred to the trust, isolating project
cash flows from other parties' risks.

USD Loan A

-- Amount: Up to USD125 million

-- Target Maturity Date: March 15, 2030

-- Legal Maturity Date: May 15, 2030

-- Interest rate: SOFR + 2.375%

USD Loan B

-- Amount: Up to USD152 million

-- Target Maturity Date: March 15, 2037

-- Legal Maturity Date: May 15, 2037

-- Interest rate: years 1 through 7: SOFR + 2.75%; year 8 through
    maturity SOFR + 3%

COP Loan

-- Amount: Up to COP1,019.5 billion

-- Target Maturity Date: March 15, 2029

-- Legal Maturity Date: April 30, 2030

-- Interest rate: CPI + 5.25%

UVR Notes

--  Amount: Up to the UVR equivalent of COP1,027.5 billion

-- Target Maturity Date: March 15, 2040

-- Legal Maturity Date: Feb. 28, 2041

-- Interest rate: Fixed at 6.60%

All debt tranches make semi-annual interest payments and annual
amortizations each March. The transaction benefits from a 12-month
OMRA backed by a liquidity facility provided by UPLI, and a dynamic
Major Maintenance Accrual Account equivalent to 100% of the
forward-looking maintenance costs forecasted for the first year,
66% of expenses incurred during the second year, and 33% for the
following third year.

Restricted payments are subject, among other conditions, to a
backward looking 12-month DSCR test at 1.20x, which Fitch considers
adequate. The debt structure also has a 12-month DSRAs in COP and
USD for all senior obligations. The COP DSRA is backed by a
liquidity facility provided by UPLI, while a LOC issued by
investment-grade institutions backs the USD DSRA.

Finally, the structure has cash sweep and prepayment mechanisms to
mitigate the risk of traffic underperformance (triggered if DSCR is
lower than 1.20x for two consecutive periods) and the associated
potential liquidity shortfalls, as well as the risk of traffic
overperformance and the related concession length reduction. The
structure also includes an additional cash sweep for the COP term
loan, in which a mandatory redemption event will occur if as of
February 2023 or any subsequent date until the year eight top-up
payment is received the DSCR is lower than 1.25x.

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Fitch's base case assumed Colombia's inflation at 5.2% for 2021,
3.5% for 2022 and 3.0% from 2023 onward. For the U.S.'s CPI, the
assumption was 4.4% in 2021, 2.7% in 2022, 2.5% in 2023, and 2.0%
throughout the life of the debt. The agency assumed a complete
traffic recovery in 2022 at 123% of 2019's levels and a traffic
reduction in 2023 of roughly 17% driven by the expected toll rates
increase once FU1 is completed. From 2023-2040, the agency assumed
traffic would grow at a CAGR of 2.4%.

Fitch assumed FBAs payment would present a three-month delay, while
the top-up payment delay would be equivalent to 18 months. The
assumptions represent the maximum days of delay allowed per the
concession contract before a termination event is triggered. Fitch
also assumed deductions of 0.2%, in line with the IE's
expectations. The assumed cost profile aligns with the sponsor's
original assumptions and forecast since the IE confirmed operating
expenses are sufficient to support operations. SOFR rate was
considered at 4.0%. Under Fitch's base case, the minimum LLCR is
1.3x in 2022.

Fitch's rating case reflects a reasonable likely combination of
uncorrelated stresses that could occur in any given year but are
not expected to persist. Because of this, the rating case further
sensitizes Fitch's base case financial performance by assuming a
traffic recovery in 2022 of 120% of 2019's levels, and a reduction
of roughly 17% in 2023. Under this case, the agency assumed traffic
would grow at a CAGR of 1.8% from 2023 to 2040.

The Fitch rating case also assumed revenue deductions at 1.8%
following the IE's lenders' downside case, a 7.5% increase for
operating expenses and capital expenses. Inflation and ANI payment
delays assumptions remained as described for the base case. Fitch's
rating case resulted in a minimum LLCR of 1.3x in 2022.

SECURITY

The security package constitutes substantially all of the assets of
the issuer, Patrimonio Autonomo Union del Sur, and Concesionaria
Vial Union del Sur S.A.S., the co-obligor. The collateral also
includes certain reserve accounts, pledges of rights and stock,
including stand-by letters of credit or other acceptable support
instruments such as UPLI's liquidity facility, assignments of
revenues, the concession and the transaction trust.

On Sept. 11, 2015, Concesionaria Vial Union del Sur S.A.S. was
granted a 25-year concession for the construction and operation of
the existing 83-kilometer Rumichaca-Pasto corridor, located in the
Narino department. The concession period began on Oct. 27, 2015,
and can be extended up to a maximum of 29 years if the tolls
collection net present value (VPIP) is not reached by the 25th
concession anniversary.

The conversion of the 83-km toll road into a dual carriageway aims
to provide connectivity between local and international markets
(Ecuador) with indigenous and farmers' communities in the region's
municipalities. The project includes the construction of seven
bridges with a total length of approximately 1,670 meters and two
toll stations: El Contadero and the replacement of the existing
toll booth, El Placer. The project construction is divided into
five subsections or functional units, three of which (FU3, FU4 and
FU5) have been completed.

FU2 was delivered for verification on Dec. 22, 2021, starting the
corresponding 60-day verification period, with minor pending works
expected to be concluded during this time period. Overall
construction advancement is roughly 96% as of Dec. 15, 2021, with
the completion of FU1 scheduled for March 2022. According to the
Independent Engineer, outstanding and ongoing works in FU1 are
considered of low complexity, and mainly comprise earthworks and
final road construction, including slope stabilization works.

In September 2020, Colombia's Ministry of Transportation approved
and confirmed the toll station relocation of the Ipiales toll booth
(contemplated initially under the concession agreement) to El
Contadero (FU1) due to indigenous communities' opposition.
Nevertheless, the Concessionaire will install traffic counting
equipment in a control stand (shadow toll booth) located in La
Josefina (FU2) as confirmed by the concession agreement amendment
No. 7. The compensation for lower toll collection will be quarterly
calculated and paid by the ANI, and equal to 90% of the difference
between the toll collection that would have been collected at
Ipiales and El Contadero's actual toll revenue collection.

The project's revenues consist of collected toll revenues at El
Placer and El Contadero and ANI's contributions, including future
budget allocations (vigencias futuras), top-up traffic payments
(diferencias de recaudo), the 90% difference between Ipiales
calculated toll revenues and El Contadero toll collection. ANI's
payments enhance revenue stability and predictability and are
denominated in COP and USD, although they are always paid in COP.
ANI's contributions are assigned upon completion or, under certain
circumstances, under partial completion of each FU.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.



===================================
D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C
===================================

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Expert Predicts Inflation Will Reach 13%
------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that in 2021, the Consumer Price Index
(CPI) in the Dominican Republic reached its highest level since
2008, at 8.50%, and everything seems to indicate that this year it
will surpass double digits.

According to estimates by economist Antonio Ciriaco Cruz, director
of the School of Economics of the Autonomous University of Santo
Domingo (UASD), by the end of 2022, inflation could be between 12%
and 13%, the report notes.

The expert makes these projections considering that the conflict
between Russia and Ukraine will continue for at least four months,
according to Dominican Today.

The economist said that although it is difficult to make accurate
predictions in a world full of uncertainty, this situation directly
affects the Dominican Republic, the report relays.  He commented
that this would undoubtedly alter the macroeconomic framework of
the country, the report discloses.

He said that it would probably be necessary to make a complementary
budget because, in the current one, the oil barrel is contemplated
at US$62, the report notes.  In this sense, he explained that if,
in the best-case scenario, the average price of oil is at US$90,
the oil bill would increase by some US$2.4 billion in addition to
the US$4 billion paid last year, the report says.

"The bill could reach US$7 billion. It is a difficult situation for
countries like the Dominican Republic, which is a net importer of
oil," said the expert, the report adds.

                  About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.

TCRLA reported in April 2019 that the Dominican Today related that
Juan Del Rosario of the UASD Economic Faculty cited a current
economic slowdown for the Dominican Republic and cautioned that if
the trend continues, growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del
Rosario said that if that happens, "we'll face difficulties in
meeting international commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

Fitch Ratings, in December 2021, revised the Outlook on Dominican
Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR)
to Stable from Negative and affirmed the IDRs at 'BB-'.  The
revision of the Outlook to Stable reflects the narrowing of
Dominican Republic's government deficit and financing needs since
Fitch's last review resulting in the stabilization of the
government debt/GDP ratio, as well as the investment-driven
economic momentum, reflected in the faster-than-expected economic
recovery in 2021 that Fitch expects to carry into above-potential
GDP growth during 2022 and 2023.

Standard & Poor's, also in December 2021, revised its outlook on
the Dominican Republic to stable from negative.  S&P also affirmed
its 'BB-' long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit
ratings and its 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings.  The
stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation of continued favorable
GDP growth and policy continuity over the next 12 to 18 months that
will likely stabilize the government's debt burden, despite lack of
rogress with broader tax reforms, S&P said.  A
rapid economic recovery from the downturn because of the pandemic
should mitigate external and fiscal risks.

Moody's affirmed the Dominican Republic's long-term issuer and
senior unsecured ratings at Ba3 and maintained the stable outlook
in March 2021.


DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Government Plans to Absorb Oil Hike
-------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that President Luis Abinader reported that
the government would not pass on fuel price increases to the
population at a time when West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, a
reference for the Dominican Republic, exceeded the barrier of 115
dollars a barrel.  The president also announced that he would
present the idea or proposal designed to deal with the rise in fuel
prices next week, according to the report.

Abinader spoke about the issue when he inaugurated the pluvial
drainage system of the Moscow neighborhood in the San Cristobal
province, built at the cost of 160 million pesos, the report
notes.

                         Historical Rises

The price of a barrel of WTI oil reached a maximum of US$115.68 on
March 7 in the New York market, the report discloses.

The rise puts another trigger in the increase in prices of white
fuels (gasoline, diesel, fuel oil) in non-oil countries, the report
says.  One of them is the Dominican Republic, which is also felt
directly in other inputs, intermediate and finished goods, the
report notes.

The prices of basic staples such as corn, wheat, and soybeans have
been reflecting increases, an effective ingredient to pressure the
Consumer Price Index (inflation), the report discloses.

The price of WTI crude oil gained US$7.43 on the New York stock
market March 4, equivalent to a percentage increase of 6.87%, the
report relays.

The rise in oil prices reflects a historical maximum concerning the
price of 13 years and six months ago, the report notes.

While Brent crude, which is listed on the London Stock Exchange,
but is not a reference for the Dominican Republic, closed March 4
at US$118.11, a maximum since August 2008, driven by the drop in
Russian exports, the report discloses.

The price of a barrel of Brent for delivery in May thus gained
6.92% in London, the report says. Since the Russian invasion of
Ukraine began, Brent has risen 21.9%, the report notes.

The war in Ukraine also pushed the price of natural gas to a new
all-time high, the report relays.

Fears of disruptions to exports from Russia, which supplies 40% of
gas imports on the continent, caused the European market benchmark,
the Dutch TTF, to hit a new record of 213,895 euros per
megawatt-hour (MWh), the report discloses.

                            Drop Bags

World stock markets fell again due to fears caused by the war in
Ukraine, aggravated by the bombing of the largest nuclear power
plant in Europe.

The New York stock market ended the week lower on March 4 due to
the intensification of the conflict, which overshadowed the good
news for the labor market in the United States, where unemployment
is close to pre-pandemic levels (3.8% in February), the report
relays.

Thus the Dow Jones index lost 0.53% to 33,614.67 units, the report
relays.  The technological Nasdaq lost 1.66% to 13,313.44 points
and the S&P 500 0.79% to 4,328.87 units, the report notes.

In Europe, Paris closed down 4.97%, Frankfurt lost 4.41%, and Milan
6.24%, the report relays.  The losses were somewhat lower in the
London and Madrid markets, with decreases of 3.48% and 3.63%,
respectively, the report notes.

Tokyo ended down 2.23% in Asia, Hong Kong 2.54%, and Shanghai
0.96%, the report discloses.

                  About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.

TCRLA reported in April 2019 that the Dominican Today related that
Juan Del Rosario of the UASD Economic Faculty cited a current
economic slowdown for the Dominican Republic and cautioned that if
the trend continues, growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del
Rosario said that if that happens, "we'll face difficulties in
meeting international commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

Fitch Ratings, in December 2021, revised the Outlook on Dominican
Republic's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR)
to Stable from Negative and affirmed the IDRs at 'BB-'.  The
revision of the Outlook to Stable reflects the narrowing of
Dominican Republic's government deficit and financing needs since
Fitch's last review resulting in the stabilization of the
government debt/GDP ratio, as well as the investment-driven
economic momentum, reflected in the faster-than-expected economic
recovery in 2021 that Fitch expects to carry into above-potential
GDP growth during 2022 and 2023.

Standard & Poor's, also in December 2021, revised its outlook on
the Dominican Republic to stable from negative.  S&P also affirmed
its 'BB-' long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit
ratings and its 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings.  The
stable outlook reflects S&P's expectation of continued favorable
GDP growth and policy continuity over the next 12 to 18 months that
will likely stabilize the government's debt burden, despite lack of
rogress with broader tax reforms, S&P said.  A
rapid economic recovery from the downturn because of the pandemic
should mitigate external and fiscal risks.

Moody's affirmed the Dominican Republic's long-term issuer and
senior unsecured ratings at Ba3 and maintained the stable outlook
in March 2021.




=============
J A M A I C A
=============

JAMAICA: Fitch Affirms B+ LT Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Jamaica's Long-Term Foreign Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The Rating Outlook is Stable.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Credit Fundamentals: Jamaica's 'B+' rating is supported by World
Bank Governance Indicators that are substantially stronger than the
'B' and 'BB' medians, a favorable business climate and consistent
fiscal policy efforts to lower the debt burden. These strengths are
balanced by vulnerability to external shocks, average GDP growth
below peers, a high public debt level and a debt composition that
makes the sovereign vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations and
hikes in interest rates. The Stable Outlook is supported by Fitch's
expectation that having been interrupted by the pandemic, a
downward trend in public debt-to-GDP will be underpinned by
political consensus to maintain a high primary surplus.

Continued Deficit Reduction: Fitch projects that in fiscal 2022
(ending March 2022) the fiscal deficit will narrow to 0.3% of GDP
from 3.1% a year prior, among the narrowest deficits in the 'B'
category. Fitch projects fiscal outturns to continue to improve,
reaching a surplus of 0.3% of GDP by fiscal 2024, with strong
revenue growth being the main driver. Between April and December
2021, revenue grew by 15.4% yoy (excluding a 1.5% of GDP dividend
payment made by the central bank), while expenditure grew by 7.0%,
lower than the pre-pandemic annual growth rate (8.5% between fiscal
2016 and fiscal 2020), partly reflecting lower capex. The gradual
refinancing of expensive debt issued after the 2013 restructuring
will continue to lower debt service costs.

Debt on a Downward Path: Fitch projects government debt-to-GDP to
fall to 87.8% by end-March 2024 from 109.7% at end-March 2021.
Currency weakness, rising interest rates and high inflation are
risk factors that could put upward pressure on the debt and debt
service. Of total debt as of December 2021, 61.3% was in foreign
currency, 27.2% was variable-rate debt and 2.7% CPI-linked debt.
Financing costs have risen recently due to a rise in the central
bank policy rate, with the government selling in February 2022
three-month T-bills with a yield of 3.59%, up 206bp from a year
earlier.

Ambitious Debt-Reduction Target: The target to reduce debt to 60%
of GDP by March 2028, a target date postponed by two years amid the
pandemic, continues to be the main fiscal policy anchor and appears
to retain broad political support. The fiscal rule specifies the
fiscal balance needed to reach the target, a surplus of 0.3% of GDP
in fiscal 2023, which is stated in the budget. While Fitch sees the
renewal of debt reduction as positive for Jamaica's
creditworthiness, future shocks may emerge that would necessitate
more aggressive tightening of fiscal policy between now and 2028,
which might conflict with other policy objectives and render the
target difficult to achieve.

Weak Growth Outlook: Fitch projects that the economy will only
return to its pre-pandemic level by 2023 while most 'B'-rated peers
did so in 2021. Average annual growth between 2021 and 2023 is
projected at 4.0% (B median is 4.2%), however, the sharp
contraction in 2020 (9.9% in Jamaica versus 3.7% B median) shows
the relative weakness of the rebound. This reflects the staggered
nature of the tourism recovery. Fitch expects tourist arrivals to
return to their pre-pandemic level in 2H22. A low vaccination rate
is slowing down the re-opening of the economy. The aluminum sector
also faces headwinds as two of four mining operations are off-line
and another faces Russia-related sanctions risks; in 2018 when all
sites were online bauxite and alumina exports were 7.8% of GDP.

Strong Inflationary Pressures: Fitch forecasts average inflation
for 2022 at 8.0% well above the target range (4% to 6%). Upside
risks to this inflation projection stem from the recent jump in
global food, oil and LNG prices. Annual inflation in January 2021
was 9.7%, the highest since August 2014. The central bank has
responded by increasing the policy rate to 4.0%, 350bp higher than
in September 2021.

Strong Reserves Pushed by Remittances: Fitch forecast that in 2021
the current account had a surplus of 1.9% of GDP driven primarily
by strong growth in remittances (net inflows grew by 20.7% yoy). In
2021, net remittances were USD3.4 billion (23.7% of GDP), while in
2019, they were USD2.3 billion (14.4% of GDP). At YE 2021, gross
international reserves reached a record high of USD4.8 billion (7.0
months of current external payments). Fitch projects that the
current account surplus will narrow in 2022 driven by stronger
imports and deceleration of remittance growth, Fitch projects gross
international reserves to reach USD5.2 billion by YE 2023.

Well-Capitalized Banks: The banking sector is well capitalized with
low non-performing loans despite the pandemic shock and the
expiration of repayment moratoria. As of December 2021, the capital
adequacy ratio was 14.2% (well above the regulatory requirement of
10%) and NPLs were 2.9% of total loans (in December 2019 they were
2.2%). The health of the banking sector supports the government's
goal of borrowing 70% of its financing needs locally.

ESG - Governance: Jamaica has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5[+]'
for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law,
Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance
Indicators (WBGI) have in Fitch's proprietary Sovereign Rating
Model. Jamaica has a medium WBGI ranking at 58.1 reflecting its
track record of peaceful political transitions, accountability of
the government to civil society and regulatory quality.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

-- Public Finances: An increase in government debt-to-GDP, for
    example owing to a persistently loose fiscal stance or a
    marked increase in debt service costs;

-- Macro: A sustained period of economic growth below
    expectations caused, for example, by external shocks to key
    industries.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

-- Public Finances: A large and sustained decline in government
    debt-to-GDP ratio over the medium term caused, for example by
    consistent adherence to the fiscal framework;

-- Macro: A strengthening of growth prospects without the
    emergence of macroeconomic or fiscal imbalances;

-- Public Finances: Entrenchment of institutional improvements in
    the fiscal policy framework that enhance confidence in medium-
    term economic and fiscal performance.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Jamaica a score equivalent to a
rating of 'B+' on the Long-Term Foreign Currency (LT FC) IDR
scale.

Fitch's sovereign rating committee did not adjust the output from
the SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR.

Fitch has removed the +1 notch on macro that offset the impact of
the pandemic shock on GDP growth and GDP volatility on the SRM.

Fitch has removed the -1 notch on external finances as the
government has secured financing that would help meet external and
fiscal financing needs in the event of a natural disaster, and net
external debt is on a downward path that is bringing it much closer
to peers.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating
model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centered
averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score
equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking
qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM
output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within
Fitch's criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully
reflected in the SRM.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance
and Infrastructure issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario
(defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in
a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating
horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative
direction) of three notches over three years. The complete span of
best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating
categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario
credit ratings are based on historical performance.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Jamaica has an ESG Relevance Score of '5[+]' for Political
Stability and Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the
highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to
the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight. As Jamaica
has a percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance
Indicator, this has a positive impact on the credit profile.

Jamaica has an ESG Relevance Score of '5[+]' for Rule of Law,
Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as
World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's
SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key
rating driver with a high weight. As Jamaica has an average
percentile rank above 50 for the respective Governance Indicators,
this has a positive impact on the credit profile.

Jamaica has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the
World Bank Governance Indicators is relevant to the rating and a
rating driver. As Jamaica has a percentile rank above 50 for the
respective Governance Indicator, this has a positive impact on the
credit profile.

Jamaica has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and
is a rating driver for Jamaica, as for all sovereigns. As Jamaica
had a fairly recent restructuring of domestic public debt in 2013,
this has a negative impact on the credit profile.

Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG
credit relevance, if present, is a score of 3. This means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity(ies), either due to their nature or to the way in which
they are being managed by the entity.


JAMAICA: NIR Records Increase in February
-----------------------------------------
RJR News reports that Jamaica's Net International Reserves (NIR)
increased at the end of February.
The NIR amounted to US$3.59 billion, which is US$81 million more
than in January, the report notes.

While the value increased, the NIR was able to cover less imports,
the report notes.

The reserves were valued at 46 weeks of goods imports, compared to
48 weeks in January, the report adds.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Nov.
25, 2021, Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the Government of
Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings at B2. The
senior unsecured shelf rating has also been affirmed at (P)B2. The
outlook on the ratings remains stable.


JAMAICA: Remittances Decline in January
---------------------------------------
RJR News reports that there was a decline in remittance inflows to
Jamaica in January, amounting to  US$221.4 million.  That was 1.3
per cent or US$3 million less than the same period in 2021, the
report notes.

For the fiscal year to date, total remittances were 14.2 per cent
higher at US$2.7 billion, the report discloses.

The United States remained the largest source market of
remittances, accounting for 70 per cent of total inflows, the
report adds.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Nov.
25, 2021, Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the Government of
Jamaica's long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings at B2. The
senior unsecured shelf rating has also been affirmed at (P)B2. The
outlook on the ratings remains stable.




=====================
P U E R T O   R I C O
=====================

BANCO POPULAR: To Close LifeMiles Credit Cards by March 31
----------------------------------------------------------
onemileatatime.com reports that Avianca LifeMiles currently has two
credit cards in the United States, both of which are issued by
Puerto Rico's Banco Popular.  The bank has just reached out to card
members to inform them that all cards will be closed as of March
31, 2022, according to the report.

The card issuer also stated that no annual fees are being charged
between January 1 and March 31, 2022, and that any annual fees
charged between February and December 2021 will be automatically
credited back to the account, the report notes.

While it's pretty common for credit card benefits to change over
time, it's not all that often that you see co-branded airline cards
discontinued altogether, the report relays.  Many in the miles &
points world picked up LifeMiles credit cards over time, given that
the cards offered decent welcome bonuses, the report notes.  The
perks of the cards were reasonably good as well, at least for those
who fly Avianca with any frequency, the report says.

Will there be a new LifeMiles credit card?

It's anyone's guess why the LifeMiles credit cards are being
discontinued:

   -- It could be that LifeMiles is starting a relationship with a
new credit card issuer, that's a bit more mainstream than Banco
Popular

   -- It could be that Banco Popular wasn't happy with the
profitability of the card portfolio (in terms of card spending,
number of members, etc.), and that it no longer made sense to issue
these cards

LifeMiles can be incredibly useful for Star Alliance first &
business class award redemptions, as the program frequently sells
miles at a discount, and is also transfer partners with Amex
Membership Rewards, Capital One, and Citi ThankYou, the report
notes.

The report discloses that if Avianca LifeMiles were to launch a
co-branded credit card with another issuer, which one would be most
likely?  This is purely speculation on my part, but:

   -- Amex and Citi don't really issue any "niche" co-branded
airline credit cards, but rather only massive card portfolios
(Delta and American, respectively)

   -- Chase does issue some lower volume cards (Aer Lingus, Iberia,
etc.), but the fact that LifeMiles isn't transfer partners with
Chase Ultimate Rewards suggests to me that there's not much of a
relationship there

   -- Barclays seems to me like the most likely bank that would
partner with LifeMiles

Only time will tell what's next, and if LifeMiles has plans for
another credit card, or if the popular program will just focus on
selling miles directly and mileage transfers, the report notes.

                      About Popular, Inc.

Popular, Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP) is the leading financial institution
in Puerto Rico, by both assets and deposits, and ranks among the
top 50 U.S. bank holding companies by assets. Founded in 1893,
Banco Popular de Puerto Rico, Popular's principal subsidiary,
provides retail, mortgage and commercial banking services in Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Popular also offers in Puerto
Rico auto and equipment leasing and financing, investment banking,
broker-dealer and insurance services through specialized
subsidiaries. In the mainland United States, Popular provides
retail, mortgage and commercial banking services through its New
York-chartered banking subsidiary, Popular Bank, which has branches
located in New York, New Jersey and Florida.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Jan.
9, 2020, S&P Global Ratings said it withdrew its 'B' short-term
issuer credit rating on Banco Popular de Puerto Rico at the
company's request. The 'BB+' long-term issuer credit rating on
Banco Popular de Puerto Rico is unchanged.  The outlook on the
long-term rating remains positive.




=================
V E N E Z U E L A
=================

CITGO PETROLEUM: Sales Process Put in Motion
--------------------------------------------
globalinsolvency.com, citing WSJ Pro Bankrupty, reports that a
federal judge put in motion a sale process for Venezuela's stake in
Citgo Petroleum Corp. "up to and including selecting a winning
bid," even as the U.S. government continues to block any change in
control of the Houston-based refiner.

Judge Leonard Stark of the U.S. District Court in Wilmington, Del.,
approved a sale procedure for the shares of Citgo's U.S. holding
company, a valuable state asset controlled by the U.S.-backed
opposition to Venezuela's authoritarian regime, according to
globalinsolvency.com.

The shares can't be transferred under current U.S. sanctions on
Venezuela, blocking the country's many unpaid creditors from
seizing them for repayment, the report notes.

The report relays that the judge nonetheless authorized a special
master to conduct a marketing and sales process for the shares,
while saying they can't be transferred unless the recipient obtains
permission from the Treasury Department.

Judge Stark said he was authorizing a "contingent auction" that
wouldn't transfer the shares' legal title until the winning bidder
held a specific license from the Treasury Department's Office of
Foreign Assets Control, the report adds.

                   About CITGO Petroleum

Citgo Petroleum Corporation is a United States-based refiner,
transporter and marketer of transportation fuels, lubricants,
petrochemicals and other industrial products.  Based in Houston,
Texas, Citgo is majority-owned by PDVSA, a state-owned company of
the Venezuelan government (although due to U.S. sanctions, in 2019,
they no longer economically benefit from Citgo.)

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on April
2021, Fitch Ratings affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Rating
(IDR) of CITGO Petroleum (Opco) at 'B' and CITGO Holding (Holdco)
at 'CCC+', Opco's senior secured term loans, notes, and industrial
revenue bonds at 'BB'/'RR1', and Holdco's senior secured term loans
and bonds at 'B+'/'RR1'. Fitch withdrew the ratings on Opco's $650
million July 2021 term loan, which was repaid earlier.  The Rating
Outlook was revised to Stable from Negative.



                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.

Copyright 2022.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2746.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
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of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
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.


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