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                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Friday, November 12, 2021, Vol. 22, No. 221

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

CHUBUT: Fitch Affirms 'CC' LongTerm IDRs
NEUQUEN: Fitch Affirms 'CC' LongTerm IDRs
PAMPA ENERGIA: Records Solid Third Quarter 2021 Results


B R A Z I L

CIELO SA: Fitch Affirms 'BB' IDRs, Outlook Negative
GOL LINHAS: Reports Third Quarter Loss, Expects Better Q4


C H I L E

GUACOLDA ENERGIA: S&P Cuts ICR to 'B' on Rising Refinancing Risks


C O L O M B I A

CANACOL ENERGY: Commences Cash Tender Offer of 2025 Sr. Notes


D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Fuel Crunch Shutters Consulate in Haiti
[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Ensures Jobs Are Almost Fully Recovered


J A M A I C A

GUARDIAN GROUP: Reports Profit Decline for Third Quarter


M E X I C O

CYDSA SAB: S&P Affirms 'BB/B' ICR & Alters Outlook to Stable


P A N A M A

GLOBAL BANK: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LT IDR, Outlook Negative

                           - - - - -


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A R G E N T I N A
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CHUBUT: Fitch Affirms 'CC' LongTerm IDRs
----------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Province of Chubut's Foreign and
Local Currency Long Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'CC'.
Chubut's stand-alone credit profile (SCP) is assessed at 'cc'.
Chubut's senior secured step-up notes of USD650 million due in 2030
(Bocade) have also been affirmed at 'CC'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Risk Profile: 'Vulnerable'

The risk profile for Province of Chubut, like all Argentine LRGs,
is assessed as 'Vulnerable' and reflects Fitch's view of a very
high risk relative to international peers that the issuer's ability
to cover debt service with the operating balance may weaken
unexpectedly over the forecast horizon (2021-2023) due to lower
revenue, higher expenditure, or an unexpected rise in liabilities
or debt or debt-service requirement.

Revenue Robustness: 'Weaker

The 'Weak' revenue robustness assessment considers the country's
complex and imbalanced fiscal framework for LRGs with no
equalization funding. Weak and volatile national economic
performance is also factored into Fitch's revenue robustness KRF
assessment. In recent years, national GDP has dropped 2.5% in real
terms (2018), a further 2.2% in 2019, and around 10% during 2020;
with an expected recovery of around 6.5% for 2021.

Chubut's revenue structure highlights a moderate fiscal autonomy
and reliance on cyclical oil & gas royalties and transfers from a
'CCC' sovereign. Transfers from the national government amounted to
45% of operating revenues in 2020, while royalties amounted to 24%.
Tax collection represented 22.6% of operating revenues.

Revenue Adjustability: 'Weaker'

For Argentine LRGs, Fitch considers that local revenue
adjustability is low, and challenged by the country's large and
distortive tax burden, and high inflation that could affect
real-term revenue growth and affordability. The weak macroeconomic
environment also limits LRGs' ability to increase tax rates and
expand tax bases to boost their local operating revenues.

Chubut´s ability to generate additional revenue in response to
possible economic downturns is further limited by its high
dependency on royalties. Legislation on royalties is defined at the
national level and provinces´ influence is limited. Chubut´s
affordability to raise revenue is also constrained by the moderate
income of residents by international standards and social-political
sensitivity to tax increases; income metrics in Chubut are
distorted by a high economic dependence on non-renewable
resources.

Expenditure Sustainability: 'Weaker'

Argentine LRGs have high expenditure responsibilities, in a context
of structurally high inflation. The country's fiscal regime is
structurally imbalanced regarding revenue-expenditure
decentralization.

Chubut's operating balance has been quite volatile across the
years, reflecting its dependency on oil royalties. The province has
delayed salaries in 2019-2020. Higher revenues collection in 2021,
especially due to higher oil prices, allowed the province to pay
for delayed salaries, and Chubut is now current on its payroll. The
province had accumulated four months of delayed salaries, which
were finally settled as of October 2021.

Expenditure Adjustability: 'Weaker'

For argentine subnationals, infrastructure needs and expenditure
responsibilities are deemed high, with little leeway to cut
expenses. Chubut's capex to total expenditure ratio averaged 13.5%
for 2016-2020 after declining to 8.6% in 2020, the lowest figure in
the period. Staff cost in 2020 corresponded to 81.6% of operating
expenditures, translating into a high expenditure rigidity. This
further limits the ability of the province to perform expenditure
cuts. The province did not transfer its pension scheme to the
nation. The pension system functions on a pay-as-you-go basis and
carries a structural deficit.

Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: 'Weaker'

Capital market discipline is currently heightened by a 'CCC' rated
sovereign, thus curtailing external market access to LRGs. Unhedged
foreign currency debt exposure is an important structural weakness
considered in this KRF assessment, along with the weak national
framework for debt and liquidity and underdeveloped local market.
It is worth noting that during 2021 Province of Chubut remained
current on its debt after the DDE of its senior secured bonds in
December 2020. At YE 2020, Chubut's direct debt totaled ARS83.5
billion. Short-term debt corresponded to 7% of direct debt, while
foreign currency debt corresponded to 67%.

Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: 'Weaker'

For liquidity, Argentine LRGs rely mainly on their own unrestricted
cash. This KRF assessment considers that in Fitch's view, the
Argentine national framework in place regarding liquidity support
and funding available to subnationals is 'Weaker', as there are no
formal emergency liquidity support mechanisms established. The
current context of national capital controls is another risk
captured in the liquidity flexibility assessment, as the imposition
of exchange regulations could ultimately affect LRGs' ability to
fulfill their financial obligations.

Debt sustainability: b' category

Province of Chubut 'b' debt sustainability assessment considers a
'b' primary payback ratio of 47.5x in 2021 and 146.6x by 2022. The
assessment also considers that the secondary metric, actual debt
service coverage ratio, will remain below 1x throughout the
projection horizon, corroborating with the 'b' assessment. Fiscal
debt burden is expected to hover around 112.5% in 2021 and 110.2%
in 2022.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Fitch relies on its rating definitions to position the Province of
Chubut. Chubut has a 'Vulnerable" risk profile and a 'b' debt
sustainability assessment. Actual debt service coverage ratio is in
distress in the following 12-months, below 1.0x for 2021-2022,
aligned with a 'cc' SCP. The SCP also factors in the peer
comparison. Chubut does not count with any form of extraordinary
support and no asymmetric risks are considered, what leads to a FC
and LC IDR of 'CC'. The rating of the province´s senior secured
step-up notes for USD650 million due in 2030 is affirmed at the
same level of the province´s IDRs of 'CC'.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Qualitative assumptions:

Risk Profile: Vulnerable

-- Revenue Robustness: Weaker

-- Revenue Adjustability: Weaker

-- Expenditure Sustainability: Weaker

-- Expenditure Adjustability: Weaker

-- Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: Weaker

-- Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: Weaker

Debt sustainability: 'b' category

Quantitative Assumptions - Issuer Specific

Fitch's rating case scenario is a "through-the-cycle" scenario,
which incorporates a combination of revenue, cost and financial
risk stresses. It is based on the 2016-2020 figures and 2021-2023
projected ratios. The key assumptions for the scenario include:

-- yoy 45.4% increase in operating revenue on average in 2021-
    2023;

-- yoy 43.4 % increase in operating spending on average in 2021-
    2023;

-- Net capital balance of minus ARS10 billion on average in 2021-
    2023;

-- Cost of debt considers non-cash debt movements due to currency
    depreciation with an average exchange of ARS102.4 per U.S.
    dollar for 2021, ARS149.4 for 2022 and ARS211.1 for 2023.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factor that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

-- If operating balance increases, resulting on improved debt
    metrics with actual debt service coverage ratio (ADSCR) above
    1x for the first two years of the projected horizon under
    Fitch's rating case.

Factor that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

-- Signs of deeper liquidity stress that could compromise debt
    repayment capacity today and in the initial years of the
    projected horizon, including evidence of increased refinancing
    risk in its local and foreign currency debt.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance
and Infrastructure issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario
(defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in
a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating
horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative
direction) of three notches over three years. The complete span of
best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating
categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario
credit ratings are based on historical performance.

ISSUER PROFILE

Chubut is located in the Patagonian region of Argentina, where
socioeconomic indicators tend to be better than the national
average. Chubut's economy is based on services. The province is in
a strategic geographic position and is the country's largest
oil-producing province.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG - Environmental: Chubut has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Biodiversity and Natural Resource Management due to the province's
significant economic and financial exposure to the hydrocarbon
sector, which negatively affects the credit profile and is relevant
to the rating in conjunction with other factors.

ESG - Social: Chubut has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Labor
Relations & Practices as a result of the province's historically
volatile operating balances which created continuous delays in
funding employee salaries. While Chubut is now current on payroll
and paid all accumulated salaries arrears as of October 2021, risk
remains that weaker, future operating performance could again
result in salary delays, which negatively affects the credit
profile and is relevant to the rating in conjunction with other
factors.

ESG - Governance: Chubut's ESG Relevance Score for Creditor Rights
was revised to '4' from '5' as the province concluded its DDE in
December 2020 and has complied with the negotiated terms throughout
2021. Fitch expects that fiscal challenges at the national and
local level will continue to hinder the province's ability to repay
its debt obligations, which negatively affects the credit profile
and is relevant to the rating in conjunction with other factors.

ESG - Governance: Chubut has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Rule
of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of
Corruption, reflecting the negative impact a weak regulatory
framework and national policies over the province, which negatively
affects the credit profile and is relevant to the rating in
conjunction with other factors.

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.


NEUQUEN: Fitch Affirms 'CC' LongTerm IDRs
-----------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Province of Neuquen's (PN) Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'CC'.
Additionally, Fitch maintained Neuquen's Standalone Credit Profile
(SCP) at 'cc'. Fitch relied on its rating definitions to position
the province's ratings and SCP.

In addition, Fitch also affirmed at 'CC' the province's issue
ratings, which include TICADE senior secured step-up notes for an
original USD348.69 million due May 12, 2030 and an outstanding of
USD314.85 million, and TIDENEU senior unsecured step-up notes for
an original USD366 million and a current outstanding of USD377.16
million due April 27, 2030. The bonds are rated at the same level
as the province's IDRs.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Risk Profile: 'Vulnerable'

The risk profile for PN, like other Argentine subnationals, is
'Vulnerable' and captures Fitch's view of very high risk relative
to international peers that the issuer's ability to cover debt
service by the operating balance may weaken unexpectedly because of
lower-than-expected revenue or expenditure above expectations, or
because of an unanticipated rise in liabilities.

Revenue Robustness: 'Weaker'

The assessment considers the province's local revenue dependency on
the hydrocarbon sector (highly cyclical economic activity) and the
country's complex and imbalanced fiscal framework for local and
regional governments (LRGs). Neuquen has a lower reliance on
federal transfers from the co-participation regime, with current
transfers at around 27.9% of total revenues in YE2020 being mostly
transfers from a 'CCC' sovereign with a weak economic performance.

In 2020, national real GDP decreased around 10%, dragging down
co-participation transfers to an estimated real-term drop of 2.5%
relative to 2019. For 2021 real term GDP growth along with high
inflation dynamics drove growth in transfers of federal origin as
of September 2021.

Revenue Adjustability: 'Weaker'

Local revenue adjustability is low, and challenged by the country's
large and distortive tax burden. The volatile and weak economic
environment also limits LRG's ability to boost revenues.

Hydrocarbon royalties represented 25% of Neuquen's YE2020 revenues.
Commodity-based revenues add cyclicality and volatility to the
finances of Neuquen, as tax revenues are also highly concentrated
in oil and gas sector. These revenues have influence of exogenous
determinants, like market conditions and national regulation.

In 2020 hydrocarbon royalties grew a nominal 7.0% and local taxes
2.4%, both with a real-term decrease due to the context of low
global oil prices and economic activity. In 2021, commodity price
recovery and higher non-conventional oil production led to an
increase of 24% in provincial oil production as of September, while
gas production has remained on a flatter trajectory due to
infrastructure needs to increase production.

Expenditure Sustainability: 'Weaker'

Argentine provinces have high expenditure responsibilities and the
country's fiscal regime is structurally imbalanced regarding
revenue-expenditure decentralization. Due to the coronavirus
pandemic in 2020, operating expenditure (opex) grew above operating
revenues resulting in a lower operating balance of 4% of operating
revenues (2019: 8.6%). Neuquen is among the provinces that did not
transfer their pension scheme to the nation, thus when considering
the weight of this additional burden the operating balance results
in 0.5%.

For 2021-2023 Fitch estimates the province's operating balance will
average around 6.8%. Budgetary risks remain, including the growing
pension deficit weight and salary adjustment pressures due to
structurally high inflation, weakening expenditure predictability.

Expenditure Adjustability: 'Weaker'

Neuquen's ratio of staff expenses in its opex structure is high at
70.3%; with opex totaling around 86.2% of total expenditure. On
average only a low 2016-2020 10.2% of total expenditure corresponds
to capex. Due to high infrastructure needs, there is not much
leeway to adjust capex as infrastructure works are relevant for
hydrocarbon sector development.

Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: 'Weaker'

During 2020, Neuquen executed a distressed debt exchange (DDE)
process and restructured most of its foreign currency debt,
including its senior secured TICADE notes, senior unsecured TIDENEU
notes, and a loan with Credit Suisse. In YE2020 direct debt totaled
ARS105.8 billion, mostly denominated in foreign currency, and total
debt grew 40% relative to 2019 mainly due to currency depreciation.
In September 2021, debt totaled ARS127.9 billion.

Despite the obtained debt relief for 2021-2022, in the short to
medium term liquidity and refinancing risks remain considering the
outstanding amount of treasury bill issuances of ARS14.4 billion as
of September 2021. Neuquen's fiscal debt burden ratio was of 72.6%
in YE 2020, and the province's debt service coverage levels
averaged 0.5x the operating balance during 2016-2020 and are
projected to hover around 0.7x in 2021-2023.

Neuquen's TICADE notes are secured with hydrocarbon royalties,
which are linked to the U.S. dollar and payable monthly in
Argentine pesos. TICADE's 2021 coverage levels have been above the
transaction's 1.35x required level.

Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: 'Weaker'

For liquidity, Argentine provinces rely mainly on their own
unrestricted cash. For cash imbalances, Neuquen has issued short to
medium term Treasury bills. At YE 2020 Neuquen's unrestricted cash
totaled ARS6.3 billion with a 0.5x liquidity coverage ratio
reflecting a very tight and volatile liquidity position. According
to law No. 3269 that will be effective Jan. 1, 2022, the province
intends to create a stabilization and development fund that will
include an anticyclical sub-fund.

Debt sustainability: 'bbb' category

In Fitch's rating case (2021-2023) the primary metric of payback
will be between 9x-13x with a score of 'a', reflecting the
province's weak operating balances. The actual debt service
coverage ratio (ADSCR) will continue to be close to or below 1.0x;
a 'b' score, resulting in a 'bbb' assessment due to an override of
the weaker ADSCR.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Neuquen's 'cc' SCP is derived from a 'Vulnerable' risk profile and
'bbb' debt sustainability score. The SCP considers comparison with
peers, including the Municipality of Cordoba and the Provinces of
Chubut and La Rioja. Fitch does not apply any asymmetric risk or
extraordinary support from upper-tier government.

Fitch classifies Province of Neuquen as a type B LRG, as it covers
debt service from cash flow on an annual basis.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Qualitative Assumptions

-- Risk Profile: Vulnerable

-- Revenue Robustness: Weaker

-- Revenue Adjustability: Weaker

-- Expenditure Sustainability: Weaker

-- Expenditure Adjustability: Weaker

-- Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: Weaker

-- Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: Weaker

-- Debt Sustainability: 'bbb' category

Quantitative Assumptions - Issuer Specific:

Fitch's rating case scenario is a "through-the-cycle" scenario,
which incorporates a combination of revenue, cost and financial
risk stresses. It is based on the 2016-2020 figures and 2021-2023
projected ratios. The key assumptions for Fitch's rating case
scenario include:

-- Operating revenue average growth of 46.2% for 2021-2023;

-- Operating expenditure average growth of 46% for 2021-2023;

-- Average net capital balance of around minus ARS22 billion
    during 2021-2023;

-- Cost of debt considers non-cash debt movements due to currency
    depreciation with an average exchange rate of ARS102.4 per
    U.S. dollar for 2021, ARS149.4 per U.S. dollar for 2022 and
    ARS211.1 per U.S. dollar for 2023.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factor that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

-- An improved operating balance that strengthens the actual debt
    service coverage ratio above 1.0x on a sustained basis, fueled
    by a containment in the operating expenditure front.

Factor that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

-- Signs of deeper liquidity stress that could compromise debt
    repayment capacity in the short to medium term, including
    evidence of increased refinancing risk in its local and
    foreign currency debt.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance
and Infrastructure issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario
(defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in
a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating
horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative
direction) of three notches over three years. The complete span of
best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating
categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario
credit ratings are based on historical performance.

ISSUER PROFILE

Neuquen is located in the southwestern region of Argentina. The
province's economy is highly concentrated in the hydrocarbon
sector, contributing to around 36% of national oil production and
55% of natural gas production in 2020 and 2021.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Neuquen, Province of has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Rule of
Law, Institutional & Regulatory Quality, Control of Corruption
reflecting the negative impact of a weak regulatory framework and
national policies have over the province, which negatively affects
the credit profile and is relevant to the rating in conjunction
with other factors.

Neuquen, Province of has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Biodiversity and Natural Resource Management due to the province's
significant economic and financial concentration in the hydrocarbon
sector, which negatively influences the credit profile and is
relevant to the rating in conjunction with other factors

Neuquen, Province of has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Creditor
Rights revised from '5', due to the entity´s improved willingness
to service and repay its debt obligations, which is relevant to the
current rating affirmation. The 2020 DDE continues to weigh on its
credit profile in conjunction with other factors.

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.


PAMPA ENERGIA: Records Solid Third Quarter 2021 Results
-------------------------------------------------------
Pampa Energia S.A. (NYSE: PAM; Buenos Aires Stock Exchange: PAMP),
an independent company with active participation in Argentina's
electricity and gas value chain, announced the results for the
nine-month period and quarter ended on September 30, 2021.

Pampa recorded a consolidated profit attributable to the Company's
shareholders of US$131 million, US$53 million higher than the third
quarter 2020 ('Q3 20'), mainly due to better operating margin in
oil and gas, offset by higher losses from the holding of financial
securities and the own debt buyback profit recorded in Q3 20.

Consolidated net debt decreased to US$917 million as of September
30, 2021, recording a continuous and significant reduction (mainly
AR$-nominated maturities) compared to the US$1,148 million recorded
by the end of 2020.

Pampa reported 49% year-on-year increase in sales, recording US$435
million[2] in the third quarter 2021 ('Q3 21'), explained by the
rise in prices of oil, gas and petrochemical products, increased
physical volume sold in all our businesses and higher sales of own
fuel to thermal power plants.

Pampa's financial information adopts US$ as functional currency,
and it's expressed in AR$ at the transactional nominal exchange
rate ('FX'). However, its affiliates Transener, TGS and Refinor
report under local currency. Hence, their figures are adjusted by
inflation as of September 30, 2021, except for previous periods
already reported.

A copy of the company's financial result is available free at:

                  https://bit.ly/3ktWw8Z

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Sept.
9, 2021,  S&P Global Ratings affirmed the 'CCC+' ratings on
Argentine energy company Pampa Energia S.A., because they continue
to be capped by its 'CCC+' transfer and convertibility assessment
(T&C) of Argentina. However, S&P revised its outlook to stable from
negative and revised upwards Pampa's stand-alone credit profile
(SACP) to 'b-' from 'ccc+'.




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B R A Z I L
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CIELO SA: Fitch Affirms 'BB' IDRs, Outlook Negative
---------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Cielo S.A.'s Foreign and Local Currency
Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB' with a Negative Outlook, and
its Long-Term National Scale Rating at 'AAA(bra)' with a Stable
Rating Outlook. Fitch has also affirmed the senior unsecured notes
for Cielo's wholly owned subsidiary, Cielo USA Inc., at 'BB'.

Cielo's ratings reflect its leading position in the Brazilian
payment industry and its relationship with and distribution network
of Banco do Brasil and Bradesco. The company's commitment to
preserve robust liquidity and its conservative credit metrics and
strong financial flexibility remain key rating factors.

The ratings incorporate Fitch's expectation that Cielo's market
share will continue to decline and the challenges the company will
face in adapting its strategy to the sector's technological and
structural changes. The Negative Outlook for the IDRs follows the
Outlooks of Bradesco's and Banco do Brasil's IDRs, as well as the
Brazilian leading banks, which are Cielo's counterparty risks.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Highly Competitive Environment: The market dynamics for the
Brazilian payment industry will continue to change quickly and
Fitch expects competition to remain strong in the near term. The
sector should continue to evolve rapidly, with technological
innovations and new payment options, structurally changing the
traditional business model. The pure acquiring model should remain
on a declining trajectory and Cielo has the important challenge of
quickly adapting its business model, and improve diversification in
other products like financial solutions and software services.

Cielo is the largest Brazilian merchant acquirer, with an estimated
market share of 31% as of June 2021, based on a proxy with the six
largest Brazilian acquirers. The company lost approximately 17 p.p.
of market share since 2017, when about half of Brazil's total
payment volume (TPV) was processed through Cielo, and Fitch expects
it to continue to fall gradually in the medium term. Capitalized
market participants contributed to a more aggressive growth
strategy, significantly pressuring operating margins and business
model innovation. Despite the significantly increased of
competition in recent years, the industry still remains highly
concentrated, with the two largest participants still accounting
for approximately 59% of the market.

Financial Volumes to Grow Below Industry: Fitch projects Cielo's
TPV to grow below the industry in 2021 and 2022, due to the
company's strategy to prioritize profitability, with increasing
penetration among smaller accounts. Cielo's TPV is expected to
increase by 6% in 2021 in relation to 2020, affected by the
coronavirus pandemic, and a reduction of 5% in 2022. For 2023 and
on, Cielo has the challenge to deliver a more stable growth trend
and stabilize market share. Cielo processed BRL505 billion in
credit and debit transactions in the 9M21.

Brazilian market TPV is expected to grow 15% in 2021, followed by a
high-single digit growth for 2022 and going forward. Historically,
the industry has presented growth rates well above the GDP levels,
supported by the still low penetration of cards in the country,
increased market opportunities in the small and micro-merchants
segments and higher penetration of e-commerce. Fitch projects
Brazil's GDP to increase 5.0% in 2021 and 2.0% in 2022.

Challenge to Recover Cash Generation: Increased competition in the
payments industry in Brazil and more aggressive pricing have
resulted in a contraction in Cielo's cash flow generation since
2018. Cielo's adjusted EBITDA, including financial income derived
from the acquisition of receivables from merchants, is expected to
be around BRL2.9 billion in 2021 and BRL3.4 billion in 2022. These
figures compare with adjusted EBITDA of BRL2.6 billion in 2020 and
BRL4.2 billion in 2019, according to Fitch's calculations.

Cielo's working capital requirements is directly linked with the
company's strategy to fund the acquisition of receivables from
merchants. Fitch expects Cielo to generate positive FCF of BRL246
million in 2021 and BRL764 million in 2022, considering annual
investments around BRL800 million and dividends of BRL 454 million
in 2021 and around 25% of the net income for 2022.

The reduction in the net MDR (Merchant Discount Rate) fee, revenues
from point of sale (POS) equipment rental and in the financial
income from the acquisition of receivables, combined with lower
growth of the volume of transactions due to the competition
pressured its EBITDA. Cielo's capacity to gradually recover EBITDA
will depend on its ability to successfully increase the volume of
smaller clients in the TPV mix and the penetration of the
acquisition of receivables over total credit volume, and increase
product diversification.

Low Risk of Credit Loss: Cielo has no direct credit exposure to
cardholders, as the card-issuing bank guarantees cardholders'
payments, while the company's exposure to merchants is limited. The
company is, however, partially exposed to card-issuing bank
defaults on a payment settlement for Visa and MasterCard
transactions.

The risk associated with Visa and MasterCard transactions is
mitigated because more than 95% of the volume of transactions is
concentrated in the five largest Brazilian banks, Banco do Brasil
(BB-/Negative), Banco Bradesco (BB/Negative), Itau (BB/Negative),
Caixa (BB-/Negative), and Santander Brasil (not rated). For some
non-investment-grade banks, Cielo's risk management policy requires
the card-issuing bank to pledge collateral.

Strong Capital Structure: Cielo's net adjusted leverage, measured
by the net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio, including financial
income derived from the acquisition of receivables from merchants,
should be close to 2.7x in 2021 and gradually reduce in subsequent
years. Cielo's net debt is expected to reduce by about BRL2.1
billion since December 2019, to BRL7.9 billion by YE21. As of Sept.
30, 2021, net adjusted leverage was 2.7x.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Cielo is the leading company in Brazil's merchant acquiring and
payment processing industry, with an estimated 31% market share.
The second-largest is Redecard (not rated; controlled by Itau
Unibanco Holding S.A.) with a 27% share, and the third-largest is
GetNet (not rated; controlled by Grupo Santander) with 18%.

Compared with independent players, such as Stone and PagSeguro,
both with 11%, the three leaders have some competitive advantages
due to their controlling shareholders' structure, as their
relationship with leading commercial banks gives them access to a
broad customer base to acquire merchant accounts. As is
characteristic of the industry in Brazil, Cielo and its peers have
no direct credit exposure to cardholders, as the card-issuing bank
guarantees cardholders' payments.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

-- Revenues of Cielo Brasil close to BRL5.0 billion in 2021 and
    in 2022;

-- Revenues of Cateno to increase by 14% in 2021 and 6% in 2022;

-- Annual investments around BRL800 million;

-- Dividends of BRL454 million in 2021 and 25% of the net income
    in 2022.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factor that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

-- The Outlook of the Foreign and Local Currency IDRs could be
    revised to Stable if the revision of Brazil's sovereign
    Outlook leads to the stabilization of the Outlook of Banco do
    Brasil, Bradesco, Caixa Economica Federal and Itau.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

-- An increase in the volume of credit and debit transactions
    with banks rated 'BB-' and below without collateral being
    pledged by the card-issuing bank or not guaranteed by
    MasterCard;

-- Weakening credit profile of the main banks that operate with
    Cielo;

-- A significant loss due to fraud and chargebacks;

-- Tougher competition leading to a significant loss of market
    share and profitability;

-- Significant changes in regulatory risk;

-- A negative rating action on Brazil's sovereign ratings that
    leads to negative rating actions on Banco do Brasil, Bradesco,
    Caixa Economica Federal and Itau.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Strong Liquidity: Cielo has strong liquidity and financial
flexibility. As of Sept. 30, 2021, the company had cash and
marketable securities of BRL5.2 billion and total debt was BRL13.6
billion. The company has BRL2.8 billion of debt maturing up to the
end-2022, including the USD502 million bond that is due in November
2022, and BRL3.5 billion in 2023. Cielo has good financial
flexibility to address upcoming maturities and strong access to
funding, banks and capital markets.

As of Sept. 30, 2021, about 20% of total debt was denominated in
foreign currency. Total debt was composed of private debentures
(25%), FIDC (55%), bonds (14%) and others (6%).

SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS

Fitch includes financial income from the acquisition of receivables
from merchants in EBITDA.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.


GOL LINHAS: Reports Third Quarter Loss, Expects Better Q4
---------------------------------------------------------
globalinsolvency.com, citing Reuters, reports that Brazilian
airline Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes reported a net loss of 884.6
million reais (US$160.54 million) for the third quarter as traffic
remained below pre-pandemic levels, Reuters reported.  That
compared with a loss of 872 million reais a year earlier and the
company said that while demand for air travel continued to pick up
in Brazil, it has still only reached 53% of pre-pandemic levels.
Gol said that including losses from the steep depreciation of the
Brazilian real and non-recurring items, its quarterly net loss
totalled 2.53 billion reais, widening from a loss of 1.72 billion
reais a year earlier.  The group's net revenue totaled 1.9 billion
reais in the third quarter, up 96.4% year-on-year, while adjusted
earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization
(EBITDA) came in at 464.7 million reais, a 63.6% rise

                     About Gol Linhas

Founded in 2000 and based in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Gol is the largest
low-cost carrier in Latin America, offering over 750 daily
passenger flights to connect Brazil's major cities and various
destinations in South America, North America and the Caribbean,
along with cargo and charter flight services.  Gol also owns 100%
of Smiles, a loyalty program company with more than 18.5 million
participants that allows members to accumulate miles and redeem
tickets in more than 900 destinations around the world and offer
non-ticket reward products and services. In the twelve months ended
June 2021, Gol reported consolidated net revenues of BRL5.5
billion.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America, Fitch
Ratings, in September 2021, upgraded GOL Linhas Aereas Inteligentes
S.A.'s (GOL) Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default
Ratings (IDRs) to 'B-' from 'CCC+' and upgraded its Long-Term
National Scale rating to 'BB+(bra)' from 'B-(bra)'.  Fitch has also
upgraded GOL Finance's unsecured bonds to 'B-'/'RR4' from
'CCC+'/'RR4'.  Fitch has assigned a Stable Outlook for the IDRs and
the Outlook for the national scale rating remains Stable.  S&P
Global Ratings, also in September 2021, revised the outlook on
Brazilian airline Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes S.A. (Gol) to
positive from stable and affirmed its global scale 'CCC+' issuer
credit rating.




=========
C H I L E
=========

GUACOLDA ENERGIA: S&P Cuts ICR to 'B' on Rising Refinancing Risks
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings, on Nov. 10, 2021, lowered its issuer and
issue-level ratings on Chilean coal-fired Generator Guacolda
Energia S.A. to 'B' from 'B+' and removed them from CreditWatch
with negative implications, where it placed them on June 1, 2021.

The negative outlook reflects the likelihood of a further downgrade
in the next 12 months if refinancing risks for the company's bond
due April 2025 rise. In addition, if the company's financial
strategy is more aggressive than expected, for example, due to the
incurrence of new debt or high dividend payments that weakens
leverage or liquidity, S&P could lower the ratings.

On July 20, 2021, Capital Advisors become Guacolda's sole
shareholder through the 100% ownership of the intermediate company,
El Aguila Energy II SpA. Capital Advisors is a real estate
investment fund and private equity based in Chile, with more than
$2.6 billion in asset under management. The investments in Chile
include the hotel chain "Atton Hoteles S.A.", the shopping mall
company "Patio Comercial S.A.", the cemetery chain "Grupo Nuestros
Parques", Guacolda, and several commercial office buildings, a
condo development, and multifamily assets in Chile and the U.S.

The new management hasn't disclosed yet its strategy for Guacolda.
S&P said, "The lack of clarity over refinancing plan is what most
concerns us from a credit perspective, because our base-case
scenario doesn't include contract renewals at their expiration.
Therefore, we don't believe that Guacolda will generate sufficient
cash to repay its $500 million bond due April 2025. Our cash flow
analysis suggests a deficit of $150 million by mid-2025, which can
increase further in case of unexpected dividend distributions or if
the company decides to take a more aggressive approach to leverage,
which is permitted given that financial covenants don't limit new
debt or dividend payments."

Guacolda operates in dynamic and rapidly changing industry
conditions. The country aims to phase out coal from its energy
matrix by 2040, transitioning to cleaner sources. However, the
legislation under discussion includes an initiative to switch fully
from coal by 2025. If the law is approved, it will further pressure
Guacolda, which already faces a declining contractual position.

Under these circumstances, some of Guacolda's contracts might not
get renewed at their expiration, or if renewed, the conditions
wouldn't be as favorable as in the past and would include shorter
tenors, lower prices, and no indexation to the coal price. S&P
said, "In 2020, Guacolda sold around 4.4 gigawatt hours (GWh) under
existing contracts, and we expect that amount to decrease to 3.2
GWh by 2021 and 2.2 GWh by 2022. In addition, the company's current
contract average tenor is 3.3 years, compared with 4 years in 2020.
We will continue monitoring the business conditions and incorporate
any relevant development into our analysis."

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) credit factors for this
credit rating change: Climate transition risks and risk management
culture and oversight.




===============
C O L O M B I A
===============

CANACOL ENERGY: Commences Cash Tender Offer of 2025 Sr. Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------
Canacol Energy Ltd. (TSX:CNE) (OTCQX:CNNEF) (BVC:CNE.C) ("Canacol")
and Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (the "Purchaser") announced
the commencement of an offer by the Purchaser (directly or through
an affiliate) to purchase for cash (the "Tender Offer") any and all
of the outstanding 7.250% Senior Notes due 2025 (the "Notes")
issued by Canacol from each registered holder of the Notes (each, a
"Holder" and, collectively, the "Holders").  The Tender Offer is
being made pursuant to the offer to purchase and consent
solicitation statement dated November 8, 2021 (the "Offer and
Solicitation Statement").

In connection with the Tender Offer, the Purchaser (directly or
through an affiliate) is also soliciting on behalf of the Issuer
(the "Solicitation") with respect to the Notes, consents (the
"Consents") to proposed amendments (the "Proposed Amendments") to
the Notes and the indenture dated May 3, 2018 (as amended and
supplemented to the date hereof, the "Indenture") between Canacol,
the guarantors thereto and Citibank, N.A., as trustee (the
"Trustee"), under which the Notes were issued, providing for, among
other things, elimination of substantially all restrictive
covenants in the Indenture and modify the notice period applicable
to optional redemptions from not less than ten nor more than 60
days to not less than three Business Days nor more than 60 days.

Canacol, with headquarters in Alberta, Canada, is an independent
natural gas & oil exploration and production company in Colombia.
As of June 2021, its total assets amounted to $728 million.

As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on
Nov. 10, 2021, Moody's Investors Service assigned a Ba3 rating to
Canacol Energy Ltd.'s proposed up to $450 million senior unsecured
notes due 2028. Canacol's existing Ba3 ratings remain unchanged.
The outlook is stable.




===================================
D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C
===================================

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Fuel Crunch Shutters Consulate in Haiti
-----------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that the fuel shortage affecting Haiti
forced the Dominican consulate in Port-au-Prince to close its
doors, according to local media reports in that country.

The explanation for the closure was offered by the Dominican
diplomatic mission, by placing a sign on the facade of the
building, dated Saturday, November 6, with the information,
according to Dominican Today.

"The Administration of the Consulate General reports that the
consulate was closed due to fuel shortages, which prevented normal
operation. We will resume the normal schedule from this Monday,
November 8," reads the image of the poster published by the
newspapers, the report notes.

                  About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.

The Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America reported in April 2019
that the Dominican Today related that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

Fitch Ratings on Jan. 18, 2021, assigned a 'BB-' rating to
Dominican Republic's USD1.5 billion 5.3% notes due Jan. 21, 2041.
Concurrently, the Dominican Republic reopened its 2030 4.5% notes
for an additional USD1.0 billion, which Fitch rates 'BB-', raising
the total outstanding amount of the 2030 notes to USD2.0 billion.

Standard & Poor's, on December 4, 2020, affirmed its 'BB-'
long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on
the Dominican Republic. The outlook remains negative. S&P also
affirmed its 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings. The negative
outlook reflects S&P's view that it could lower the ratings on the
Dominican Republic over the next six to 18 months, given the
severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the sovereign's already
vulnerable fiscal and external profiles, as well as the potential
for a weaker-than-expected economic recovery.

Moody's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last set at Ba3
with stable outlook (July 2017). Fitch's credit rating for
Dominican Republic was last reported at BB- with negative outlook
(May 8, 2020).


[*] DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Ensures Jobs Are Almost Fully Recovered
---------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that to reach the total number of formal
and informal jobs that existed before the pandemic in the Dominican
Republic, only 10,000 would be missing, according to data presented
by the Minister of Economy, Planning, and Development (Mepyd),
Miguel Ceara Hatton.

In the first quarter of 2020, formally and informally employed
persons stood at 4,605.9 million, and in the third quarter of 2021,
employed persons reached 4,595,000, for -0.24%, according to
Dominican Today.

The most drastic fall in employed persons was registered in the
second quarter of 2020, when it stood at 4,246,700 unemployed
persons, for -7.79 less than the beginning of 2020, the report
notes.  From that figure, jobs were headed towards recovery, the
report relays.

Through a document issued, the Mepyd explains that the number of
employed workers has increased, the report discloses.  As of
October 2021, formal contract workers exceed the employment level
of February 2020, the report relates.  As a result, workers
employed in the private sector recovered what was lost in 2020 and
compensated for the reduction in formal public employment, the
report relays.

In addition, as of September 2021, according to the Central Bank's
Continuous National Survey of the Workforce (ENCFT), only 10,000
formal and informal jobs were missing to recover the total
employment lost in 2020, the report notes.

"The recovery of employment is marching, but not that it has
recovered in its entirety because if you analyze the tourism sector
as such, the occupancy that we have is around 70%, it is not that
of all the hotels in the country, the report relates.  If we
analyze the small and medium-sized companies, they have not
returned to the situation they experienced before the pandemic,
"said Rafael Pepe Abreu, president of the National Council of Trade
Union Unity (CNUS), the report relays.

According to the Labor Outlook of the Dominican Social Security
System (SDSS) and statistics of the collection of the Social
Security Treasury (TSS), as of September 2021 a total of 2,096,105
workers were registered in the SDSS, with a wage bill of RD $
58,866,796,671.3 and an average salary of RD $ 27,528.2, the report
discloses.

The TSS explains that, compared to September 2020, there is a
growth of 12.58% in the jobs registered in the Single Information,
Collection and Payment System (SUIR) and 24.70% in the wage bill,
the report says.

The document also indicates that men have a greater participation
in the labor market. As of September 2021, they have 53.94% of the
working population, while women make up 45.06%. On average, women
have a salary of RD $ 27,941.3, slightly higher than men at RD $
27,676.3, the report relates.

As for public sector workers as an economic sector, as of September
of this year, the largest number of employees are concentrated in
the service sector, representing 99.64% of the total distribution
of jobs, the report notes.  Within this sector, the four subsectors
with the highest participation are public administration with
90.81%, other services with 2.24%, and financial intermediation,
insurance, and others, with 2.18%, the report adds.

                    About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island
of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo
has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America
dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. Luis Rodolfo
Abinader Corona is the current president of the nation.

The Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America reported in April 2019
that the Dominican Today related that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

Fitch Ratings on Jan. 18, 2021, assigned a 'BB-' rating to
Dominican Republic's USD1.5 billion 5.3% notes due Jan. 21, 2041.
Concurrently, the Dominican Republic reopened its 2030 4.5% notes
for an additional USD1.0 billion, which Fitch rates 'BB-', raising
the total outstanding amount of the 2030 notes to USD2.0 billion.

Standard & Poor's, on December 4, 2020, affirmed its 'BB-'
long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on
the Dominican Republic. The outlook remains negative. S&P also
affirmed its 'B' short-term sovereign credit ratings. The negative
outlook reflects S&P's view that it could lower the ratings on the
Dominican Republic over the next six to 18 months, given the
severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the sovereign's already
vulnerable fiscal and external profiles, as well as the potential
for a weaker-than-expected economic recovery.

Moody's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last set at Ba3
with stable outlook (July 2017). Fitch's credit rating for
Dominican Republic was last reported at BB- with negative outlook
(May 8, 2020).




=============
J A M A I C A
=============

GUARDIAN GROUP: Reports Profit Decline for Third Quarter
--------------------------------------------------------
RJR News reports that Guardian Group is reporting reduced profits
of $457 million for the third quarter ending September 30.

This represents a decrease of $28 million over the $485 million
profit recorded during the same period last year, according to RJR
News.

Guardian attributed the reduced profits to a US$10 million loss in
Guardian Re, its Bermuda based reinsurance company, the report
relays.

The loss was related to the July floods in Germany, the report
adds.




===========
M E X I C O
===========

CYDSA SAB: S&P Affirms 'BB/B' ICR & Alters Outlook to Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings, on Nov. 10, 2021, affirmed its 'BB' long-term
and 'B' short-term issuer credit ratings on Mexican salt and
chemicals producer CYDSA S.A.B. de C.V. At the same time, S&P
affirmed its issue-level rating of 'BB' on CYDSA's senior unsecured
notes. S&P also kept a recovery rating of '4' on these notes,
indicating its expectation of an average recovery (30%-50%) for
lenders in the event of a payment default, unchanged.

The stable outlook reflects S&P's view that CYDSA's operating and
financial performance should continue to improve through higher
revenue and EBITDA in the next 12 months, thanks to better
caustic-soda prices and consistent results across all of the
company's business divisions.

Although the low average prices of caustic-soda during 2019 and
2020 dented the company's EBITDA, the current price rebound should
improve revenue and EBITDA for the next 12 months. This is because
CYDSA's chlorine and caustic-soda division generates about 40% of
consolidated revenue. S&P believes the company's sales will remain
strong due the pandemic-fueled demand for these products, given
their final applications for cleaning, disinfectants, soaps, and
personal hygiene products.

The company's other products, such as salt for human consumption
and industrial purposes, were also in high demand. Although the
salt market for human and industrial consumption has been stable
and mature, demand for this commodity has increased amid the
lockdowns, as salt consumption for home cooking has grown. While
some businesses started to reopen in 2021, such as restaurants,
hotels, and others, the salt consumption remains strong. CYDSA
still has a leading position in Mexico's salt for human consumption
segment through its renowned "La Fina" brand.

The company's refrigerant gases business reported lower revenue and
EBITDA in 2020 because of the pandemic-induced slump in the
automotive sector. However, CYDSA's sales of refrigerant gases to
homes, offices, businesses, and hospitals remained stable. During
the first half of 2021, the division's performance improved as the
automotive sector started to recover, while demand for refrigerant
gases across the rest of the applications mentioned above remains
solid amid the ongoing pandemic.

The company's products are of basic necessity, and their
consumption during the pandemic has skyrocketed. S&P believes that
demand for CYDSA's products will remain strong for the next 12
months, given that the expected economic recovery will fuel
consumption.

S&P said, "As demand for CYDSA's products remained resilient
despite the pandemic, we expect this trend to remain in place,
raising the company's cash flows. But we also expect no significant
debt increases in the next 12 months. We believe CYDSA has shown a
conservative and prudent financial policy towards leverage, given
that the company has maintained credit metrics in line with its
'BB' credit rating. Although CYDSA secured a revolving credit
facility of about MXN2.5 billion last year to reinforce its
liquidity amid the volatility triggered by the pandemic, the
company maintained broadly stable leverage metrics in the 3.0x
area. Given that the caustic-soda prices on average remained low
during 2021 and only now are currently gradually recovering, we
estimate CYDSA's could post a debt to EBTIDA of about 3.6x by the
end of 2021.

"We expect higher capital expenditures (capex) for 2021, as the
company resumes construction of a new membrane technology plant to
replace the current mercury technology at its Coatzacoalcos
Veracruz plant. However, CYDSA will fund this project through the
proceeds from its December 2019 $120 million add-on to its existing
senior notes. Through this new "state-of-the-art" technology, CYDSA
will achieve energy cost reductions as well as greater
efficiencies, which will raise EBITDA margins to the range of
27%-30%. Nonetheless, these improvements won't occur until 2023,
when the new plant begins operating. However, given the recovery in
the caustic-soda price, coupled with strong performance across all
of CYDSA's business units, we believe that the company's EBITDA
will continue to rise consistently in the next 12-18 months. This
should enable debt to EBITDA to drop to 3.5x or lower. Given the
company's efficient cost controls and broadly stable raw material
prices, we expect CYDSA's profitability to be robust with EBITDA
margins in the 26%-27% range for the next 12 months."




===========
P A N A M A
===========

GLOBAL BANK: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' LT IDR, Outlook Negative
---------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Global Bank Corporation (GBC) Long-Term
(LT) Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB+' with a Negative Outlook.
Fitch has also affirmed the bank's Viability Rating (VR) at 'bb+'
and its Short-Term IDR at 'B'. The bank's National Scale Long-Term
rating was also affirmed at 'AA(pan)' with a Stable Outlook, and
the Short-Term rating at 'F1+(pan)'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

IDR, VR, AND NATIONAL RATINGS

GBC's IDRs and National Ratings are driven by its intrinsic
creditworthiness as reflected in its VR of 'bb+'. GBC 's ratings
continue to be highly influenced by Fitch's assessment of the
Panamanian operating environment (OE) at 'bb+' with a negative
trend. The IDR's Negative Outlook is aligned to the sovereign
Rating Outlook and reflects that downside risks in the OE are
prevailing despite the expected economic recovery.

Although Fitch expects an economic recovery of 12.1% by 2021, the
OE reactivates at a slower pace due to the high unemployment rate
and the significant share of relief loans (September 2021: 19%). In
Fitch's view, Panamanian banks won't start a material path of
credit and performance recovery until these loans are fully
addressed.

GBC's ratings are also highly influenced by the bank's profile
characterized by a competitive franchise in the local financial
system. As of June 2021, GBC is the third largest bank in Panama by
local loans (market share: 11%) and the fourth one in terms of
local deposits (9%).

A slow business dynamic and a high loan impairment charges
reinforced the decreasing trend of the bank's profitability. As of
June 2021, GBC's core operational profitability metric, operating
profit over risk-weighted assets (RWA), fell to 0.3%. Fitch expects
that GBC will keep a similar capacity for generating operating
profits under the current recovery scenario as the bank will be
facing and managing challenges such as a high unemployment rate,
modified loans performance, among others.

Fitch expects GBC's asset quality will be facing pressure in the
short-term as there are still downside risks in the OE. As of June
2021, GBC's non-performing loans (NPL) increased to a historically
high 3.2% of gross loans, above the average of the Panamanian
banking system (2%). As the loan impairment charges more than
doubled and increased up to account 82.6% of pre-impairment
operating profits, the reserves coverage of the NPLs stood at 108%,
also supported by a highly collateralized loan portfolio. The
proportion of modified loans continued diminishing to close 18% of
the loan book as of September 2021, and it is expected to remain in
that trend as the economy gains momentum.

GBC's capitalization has benefited from the asset contraction which
has compensated the lower capital internal generation. As of June
2021, GBC's Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) Capital Ratio (CET1 over
RWA) continued its increasing trend and stood at a high 12.7%
(average of the four fiscal years previous to the last one: 11.6%).
The agency also considers the bank's perpetual bond, which provides
additional loss absorption capacity due to its nature as a
convertible instrument with a high trigger (Tier 1 of 6.5%). The
regulatory solvency ratio is 15.9% (minimum: 8%).

In the last fiscal year, the loan to deposits metric continued
decreasing, and stood at 116.8% as of June 2021 as customer
deposits, the key funding source, grew by 1.8% while the loan
portfolio shrank. According to liquidity rations, the bank still
manages ample liquidity levels, and deposits are expected to remain
stable in the current fiscal year months. Moreover, wide access to
alternative funding sources and material liquid assets also
mitigate the bank's exposure to the liquidity risk.

The national rating of Global reflects its relative strength in the
local rating scale compared to other issuers in the same rating
category. The affirmation of the national rating with a stable
outlook reflects the agency's expectation that the bank will
maintain its relative financial strength in the banking system.

SENIOR DEBT

The rating of the senior unsecured global debt is at the same level
as GBC´s LT IDR of 'BB+', as the likelihood of default of the
notes is the same as the that of the bank.

Senior secured notes are rated one notch above the GBC´s national
LT rating to reflect their specific guarantees, mortgage portfolio
for 120% of the outstanding issuance, which allows a higher level
of recovery than other liabilities.

SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR

GBC's support rating (SR) of '5' and support rating floor (SRF) of
'NF' reflects Fitch's opinion that external support for GBC, while
possible, cannot be relied upon, given Panama's longstanding
dollarized economy and lack of a lender of last resort.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

IDRs, VR, National Ratings and Senior Debt

-- GBC's IDRs and VR are sensitive to changes in Panama's OE. A
    fragile economic recovery could lead to a lower OE score for
    Panamanian banks if an unexpected disruption takes place,
    which ultimately would pressure GBC's IDR and VR;

-- GBC's IDR and VR would be downgraded should the sovereign be
    downgraded;

-- A sustained decline in the bank's CET1 ratio below 10% when
    business volume begins to expand and the operational profits
    to RWA ratio remains below 0.5% could drive a downgrade in the
    bank's ratings;

-- The bank's National LT senior secured debt is sensitive to
    negative changes in GBC's National LT Rating;

-- The bank's International LT senior unsecured debt would mirror
    any potential downgrade on GBC's LT IDR.

SR and SRF

-- As these are the lowest levels in the respective scale, there
    is no downside potential for these ratings.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

IDRs, VR, National Ratings and Senior Debt

-- Given the current limitations of the OE, a rating upgrade is
    unlikely in the short term. However, a positive change in
    Fitch's OE assessment could lead to positive rating action;

-- The Negative Outlook on GBC's LT IDR would be revised to
    Stable if the OE assessment is maintained in the 'bb' range,
    and its trend changed to stable, while credit metrics recover
    rapidly;

-- Over the medium term, improvements in the bank's ratings could
    come from a stronger competitive position reflected in higher-
    than-peers and sustained profitability, which allows CET1
    capital level to be consistently above 15%;

-- The bank's National LT senior secured debt is sensitive to
    positive changes in GBC's National LT Rating;

-- The bank's International LT senior unsecured debt would mirror
    any potential upgrade on GBC's LT IDR.

SR and SRF

-- As Panama is a dollarized country with no lender of last
    resort, an upgrade in SR and SRF is unlikely.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Financial Institutions and
Covered Bond issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario
(defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in
a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating
horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative
direction) of four notches over three years. The complete span of
best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating
categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario
credit ratings are based on historical performance.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.



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S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.

Copyright 2021.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2746.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
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Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
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of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each.  For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
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