---

       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                 L A T I N   A M E R I C A

          Friday, December 11, 2020, Vol. 21, No. 248

                           Headlines



A R G E N T I N A

CORDOBA MUNICIPALITY: Fitch Upgrades LT IDRs to CC
NEUQUEN: S&P Hikes ICR to 'CCC+' on Debt Restructuring Completion


B A H A M A S

BAHAMAS: Economy Hit Hard by COVID-19


B R A Z I L

TRIANGULO DO SOL: Moody's Withdraws Ba3 Global Scale Issuer Rating


C O L O M B I A

COLOMBIA: $161.8MM IDB Loan to Help Sustain Social Security System


D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: 85,461 Domestic Workers Lose Jobs in 2019
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Construction Sector Recovers Amid Concern
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Offers to Buy Existing Notes


J A M A I C A

JAMAICA: S&P Affirms 'B+' Long-Term Sovereign Credit Rating


M E X I C O

BRASKEM IDESA: Fitch Downgrades LT IDRs to B+


P U E R T O   R I C O

AUTO MASTER: Plan of Reorganization Confirmed by Judge

                           - - - - -


=================
A R G E N T I N A
=================

CORDOBA MUNICIPALITY: Fitch Upgrades LT IDRs to CC
--------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded the Municipality of Cordoba's Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'CC'
from 'RD'. Additionally, Fitch raised Cordoba's Standalone Credit
Profile (SCP) to 'cc' from 'rd'. Fitch relied on its rating
definitions to position the municipality's ratings and SCP.

The issue ratings on the municipality's 7.875% senior unsecured
notes for USD150 million affected by the city's "consent
solicitation" have been withdrawn for debt restructuring reasons.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The upgrade of the city's rating to 'CC' reflects the completion of
a 'distressed debt exchange' (DDE) that Fitch deems to have cured
the restricted default event initiated by the 'consent
solicitation' on Oct. 30, 2020. On Nov. 18, 2020, the municipality
announced the settlement of its consent solicitation, after having
received acceptance of their offer from bondholders (83.79%) above
the threshold set in the collective action clause (CAC). The deal
pushed maturity from 2024 to 2027, modified the coupon rate from
7.875% to a step-up coupon schedule with semiannual interest
payments starting at 2.125% in September 2021 and reaching 7.0% in
September 2027.

Despite this relief, however, the 'CC' Long-Term Foreign and Local
Currency IDR reflect deep liquidity and tight budgetary flexibility
driven by fiscal challenges at the national and local level that
continue to hinder its repayment capacity, including an economic
recession that has been greatly exacerbated by the coronavirus
pandemic and the curtailment to the external market that keeps
refinancing risks at high levels. Additionally, the ratings reflect
the city's tight liquidity coverage ratios (below 1.0x) that are
forecast to continue over the next three years in Fitch's rating
case.

The process of sovereign debt renegotiation influenced
subnational-level debt policy decisions; as such, the Municipality
of Cordoba restructured its 7.875% senior unsecured notes for
USD150.0 million. On Oct. 28, 2020, the city announced that it was
seeking to modify the terms of its notes due 2024 and to that end
it has commenced a solicitation of consents from eligible holders
to amend the securities and its indenture. Later, on Nov. 18, 2020,
the City announced that its consent solicitation has settled. The
deal pushed maturity to 2027, changed the amortization profile from
three principal payments of USD50 million each to eight principal
payments of USD19.4 million each starting March 2024 ending
September 2027, and modified the coupon rate from 7.875% to a
step-up coupon schedule with semiannual interest payments starting
at 2.125% in September 2021 and reaching 7% in September 2027. In
Fitch's opinion, regardless of the sovereign restructuring process,
external market access remains curtailed amid an adverse
macroeconomic environment.

The economic lockdown triggered by the coronavirus has hindered
operating balance, increasing payables, and deteriorating the
Municipality's liquidity metrics. As such, the City has been
tapping the LC capital market issuing short-term debt on a regular
basis to cover seasonal cash imbalances. During September and
October, the City issued two short-term notes for a total of ARS1.2
billion to cover working capital needs.

Risk Profile: 'Vulnerable'

The Municipality of Cordoba's 'Vulnerable' risk profile reflects
Fitch's 'Weaker' assessment on all six key risk factors: revenue
robustness and adjustability, expenditure sustainability and
adjustability, and liabilities and liquidity robustness and
flexibility. In a combination with a 'CCC' on Argentina sovereign
rating. The 'Vulnerable' risk profile reflects a very high risk
that the city's cash flow available for debt service will remain
low over the rating case horizon.

Argentine LRGs operate in a context of a weak institutional revenue
framework and sustainability, high expenditure structures, and
tight liquidity and FX debt risks, further worsened by
macroeconomic recession, high inflation, sharp currency
depreciation and market uncertainty.

Debt Sustainability: 'b' category

Fitch classifies the Municipality of Cordoba as a type B LRG, as it
covers debt service from cash flow on an annual basis.

In line with its LRG criteria, for an entity with base case
financial profile indicating an SCP of 'b' or below, the base case
analysis alone may be sufficient to evaluate the risk of default
and transition for the debt. Therefore, in the case of Municipality
of Cordoba, Fitch's base case is the rating case which already
incorporates a very stressful scenario. Considering the current
adverse economic scenario, sovereign debt distress situation, and
economic and fiscal uncertainty, Fitch is only projecting a rating
case for a three-year horizon. Debt sustainability metrics are
analyzed to evaluate the Municipality of Cordoba's specific debt
repayment capacity and liquidity position that already factors in
the restructuring of the U.S. dollar denominated notes.

It is worth mentioning, that in circumstances other than those
previously referred to, Fitch's rating case will incorporate a
negative shock from the coronavirus pandemic to the city's economy
and fiscal accounts for the next five years.

Therefore, under Fitch's rating case the debt payback ratio (net
adjusted debt-to-operating balance) -- the primary metric of debt
sustainability for type B LRGs -- will be larger than 25x toward
the end of 2022, which corresponds to a 'b' assessment. The actual
debt service coverage ratio (operating balance-to-debt service,
ADSCR) will weaken at below 1.0x in its rating case, which leads to
a final 'b' debt sustainability. A deteriorated operating balance
underpins debt sustainability score.

The Municipality of Cordoba is the capital of the Province of
Cordoba (C) and is the second most populated city in Argentina
after the City of Buenos Aires (B-/Stable). Cordoba is one of the
most important social, educational and economic centers in
Argentina. The municipality's population was 1.3 million, or 3.31%
of the nation and 40.18% of the province. Cordoba has a diverse
economy encompassing automobile manufacturing, a strong
construction sector and an IT cluster with more than 130 companies.
Cordoba contributed more than 40% of regional GDP in 2015.

The main economic activities encompass manufacturing at 18.0% of
GDP; real estate and other entrepreneurial activities at 19.0% of
GDP; wholesale and retail commerce at 13.6% of GDP; transportation,
warehousing and communications at 10.9% of GDP; financial services
at 13.3% of GDP; and other activities at 25.2%. Since the territory
of the municipality is mostly urban, the agricultural sector has
little effect on the local economy, accounting for only 0.2% of
total GDP.

Municipality of Cordoba has an Environmental, Social and Governance
(ESG) Relevance Score of '5' for Creditor Rights due to the city's
recent DDE that has negatively affected creditors' rights and is
driving the rating action.

The Municipality of Cordoba has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of
Corruption considering its weak management performance that ended
up in a DDE.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

The Municipality of Cordoba's 'cc' SCP reflects a combination of a
'Vulnerable' risk profile and an 'b' debt sustainability
assessment. However, due to the currently low sovereign rating
levels, Fitch positions the ratings according to Fitch's rating
definitions to scale to 'C' from 'CCC' ratings. Fitch has relied on
its rating definitions to position the city's ratings and SCP. The
positioning of the SCP also factors in national and international
peer comparison. No other factors affect the rating.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Quantitative Assumptions - Issuer-Specific

In line with its LRG criteria, for an entity with base case
financial profile indicating an SCP of 'b' or below, the base case
analysis alone may be sufficient to evaluate the risk of default
and transition for the debt. Therefore, in the case of Municipality
of Cordoba, Fitch's base case is the rating case, which already
incorporates a very stressful scenario. It is based on 2015-2018,
2019 provisional figures and on updated figures as of first-quarter
2020, and October 2020 for transfers.

The key assumptions for the scenario include:

  -- 41.9% yoy increase in operating revenue, including a real term
decrease in taxes and federal transfers in 2020;

  -- 42.8% yoy increase in operating expenditure;

  -- Net capital balance of around minus ARS3.2 billion in 2022;

  -- Cost of debt considers non-cash debt movements due to currency
depreciation, assuming an exchange rate of ARS88.2 for 2020,
ARS130.5 for 2021 and ARS179.4 for 2022.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

  -- Improved operating balance that strengthens the actual debt
service coverage ratio above 1.0x on a sustained basis, fueled by
better economic prospects along with a containment in the
expenditure front;

  -- A structural improvement in cash flow generation over the
rating case horizon.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

  -- Emergence of liquidity stress that could compromise debt
repayment capacity in the coming years, including evidence of
increased refinancing risk in its foreign currency notes.

SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS

No material adjustments were made to figures reported by the
municipality.

SOURCES OF INFORMATION

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Municipality of Cordoba has an Environmental, Social and Governance
(ESG) Relevance Score of '5' for Creditor Rights due to the city's
recent DDE that has negatively affected creditors' rights and is
driving the rating action.

The Municipality of Cordoba has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of
Corruption considering its weak management performance that ended
up in a DDE.

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

NEUQUEN: S&P Hikes ICR to 'CCC+' on Debt Restructuring Completion
-----------------------------------------------------------------
On Dec. 9, 2020, S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term foreign
and local currency issuer credit ratings to 'CCC+' from 'SD' on the
province of Neuquen. S&P also affirmed its senior unsecured and
secured issue-level ratings at 'CCC+'.

Outlook

The stable outlook reflects lower risks of default in the next 12
months following the province's restructuring of its international
debt, which slashed debt service obligations.

Downside scenario

S&P could downgrade the province if a weaker-than-expected
budgetary performance or liquidity position increases the risk of
default or distressed debt exchange in the next 12 months.
Argentina's creditworthiness and its transfer and convertibility
assessment (T&C), currently at 'CCC+' continue to cap ratings on
the province. A downgrade of Argentina or its T&C would result in a
downgrade of Neuquen.

Upside scenario

During the next 12 months, S&P would upgrade Neuquen as a result of
Argentina's improved creditworthiness and T&C, and the province
significantly strengthening its budgetary performance and liquidity
position, including a greater certainty about its capacity to tap
domestic debt markets.

Rationale

Given that the terms of Neuquen loan from an international bank
became effective on Dec. 4, 2020, the province completed the
restructuring of its international debt. This reduces sharply the
province's debt service and mitigates the risk of default for the
next two years. However, our ratings reflect Neuquen's fragile
budgetary performance and liquidity position, along with the weak
debt payment culture, constraining our assessment of the province's
financial management. S&P also believes the debt profile is
unsustainable in the long term, absent unexpected and favorable
economic and financial conditions.

Moreover, the Argentine local and regional governments' (LRGs')
institutional framework, which S&P considers as very volatile and
underfunded, limits the province's capacity for fiscal planning,
and makes the LRGs vulnerable to higher tiers of government
transferring fiscal stress to the local level. In addition, amid a
weak external position, the rapidly shifting nature of Argentina's
foreign exchange controls raises concern, given the significant
share of foreign currency debt as a percentage of Neuquen's total
debt.

The province's budgetary performance and liquidity to remain weak.
Data as of September 2020 shows significant pressure on Neuquen's
fiscal position. Tax, non-tax, and royalties revenues plummeted in
2020. On the other hand, the pandemic and economic contraction have
prevented the government from restraining its expenditures. While a
pickup in oil prices should help the province's revenue to recover
faster than other Argentine provinces, spending pressures
(especially to compensate for public-servant real salary losses in
2020) will likely keep budgetary performance weak in the
intermediate term. Our base-case scenario assumes an average
operating deficit of 2% of operating revenues and deficit after
capex of about 7% of total revenue during 2020-2022. Our assessment
of a weak budgetary performance captures the volatile nature of a
significant share of the oil-derived revenue and the province's
limited capacity to adjust its expenditures.

S&P said, "With international debt markets virtually closed to
Argentine provinces, we expect Neuquen to rely mostly on the
domestic markets to finance its deficits. We have seen the province
tapping domestic markets, but at relatively short maturities that
will gradually increase rollover risks, and will keep the
province's liquidity insufficient to service debt obligations.

"The province's debt as percentage of operating revenue is set to
marginally decrease during 2020-2022, given the foreign exchange
dynamics of the official Argentine peso exchange rate. Our
base-case scenario assumes that Neuquen's debt will trend towards
50% of operating revenues by 2022. The restructuring of its foreign
currency-denominated debt will lower interest burden, which we
expect to represent 4% of operating revenue in 2020-2022. But given
that foreign currency-denominated debt makes up the bulk of the
province's debt, this ratio could spike in case of the peso's
unexpected depreciation."

A weak institutional framework caps the province's
creditworthiness.

The recent restructuring will weigh on the province's payment
culture and limits its financial management assessment. Moreover,
high inflation and a weak institutional framework will continue to
restrict Neuquen's capacity for the middle- to long-term financial
planning. In an effort to strengthen fiscal buffers, starting in
2022, the province will start to accumulate oil royalty surpluses,
which in the future will be used to stabilize fiscal revenue and
finance countercyclical spending.

Compared with other Argentine provinces and the sovereign, an
economic recovery in Neuquen might occur faster than expected,
given the likely pickup in oil prices. Long-term economic prospects
will still rely on Argentina's capacity to attract investors to
explore one of the largest unconventional hydrocarbon fields in the
world. In that sense, Argentina recently announced its "gas plan",
which aims to create more attractive conditions for investors.

S&P said, "Finally, we believe that, amid eroding macroeconomic
conditions, the sovereign could delay fiscal support measures to
subnational governments, especially given Argentina's history of
major policy swings. We assess the institutional framework for
Argentina's LRGs as very volatile and underfunded, reflecting our
perception of the sovereign's very weak institutional
predictability and volatile intergovernmental system that has been
subject to various modifications to fiscal regulations, and lack of
consistency over the years, which jeopardize the LRGs' financial
planning, and consequently, their credit quality."

In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the
Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to
vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the
appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology
applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that
the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary
analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient
for Committee members to make an informed decision.

After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and
critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria.
Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and
discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.

The committee's assessment of the key rating factors is reflected
in the Ratings Score Snapshot above.

The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to
articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the
draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The
views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in
the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating
factors is described in the methodology used in this rating
action.

  Ratings List

  Upgraded; CreditWatch/Outlook Action  
                                   To         From
  Neuquen (Province of)
   Issuer Credit Rating     CCC+/Stable/--   SD/--/--

  Ratings Affirmed  

  Neuquen (Province of)
   Senior Secured      CCC+
   Senior Unsecured    CCC+




=============
B A H A M A S
=============

BAHAMAS: Economy Hit Hard by COVID-19
-------------------------------------
According to the International Monetary Fund Staff's concluding
statement of its 2020 Article IV Mission, the Bahamas has been hit
hard by COVID-19. The pandemic will lead to a deep recession this
year and it could take years for employment and incomes to return
to pre-crisis levels. The overarching policy priorities are to save
lives, preserve livelihoods and mitigate scarring effects, while
setting the stage for a robust recovery. This will require a
package of near-term fiscal support, credible plans to secure
fiscal and financial sustainability over the medium term, and
structural reforms to enhance potential growth and resilience.

Two unprecedented shocks

The pandemic has exacted a significant human, social, and economic
toll on The Bahamas . The archipelago was just starting to recover
from the severe damage caused by Hurricane Dorian in the fall of
2019, when the global outbreak of COVID-19 devastated its
tourism-dependent economy. It has since become one of the hardest
hit countries in the Caribbean, with over 7,500 infections and more
than 160 deaths due to COVID-19.

The authorities mounted a rapid emergency response to support the
economy . They took timely measures to sustain public health,
protect the most vulnerable and cushion the impact of the pandemic
on employment, including providing food assistance, doubling the
duration of unemployment benefits, deferring tax payments for
companies that retained at least 80 percent of their workforce and
extending loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. These
measures came on top of the recovery measures following Hurricane
Dorian. As a result, and amid significant revenue shortfalls, the
2019/20 fiscal deficit increased to 6½ percent of GDP—about 5½
percentage points higher than budgeted—and public debt increased
to 69 percent of GDP. The central bank meanwhile focused on
ensuring adequate reserves and asked banks to extend loan moratoria
to provide some relief to borrowers.

Faced with large financing needs, the authorities requested IMF
emergency assistance . On June 1, 2020, the IMF Executive Board
approved access of 100 percent of quota (SDR 182.4 million or about
$250 million) under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) ( Press
release no. 20/231 ). The RFI provides financial assistance to
countries whose public debt is assessed as sustainable, without the
need to have a full-fledged program with conditionality in place.
In response to the fallout from the pandemic, the IMF has extended
emergency financing to more than 75 countries, including many
countries in the Caribbean region.

A deep contraction followed by a gradual recovery

The pandemic is expected to lead to a deep recession in 2020,
driven by the sharp drop in tourism and necessary disease
containment measures . Real GDP is projected to decline by 16.2
percent in 2020, followed by a modest rebound of 2 percent in 2021,
and to converge back to its pre-pandemic level only by 2024. The
current account balance is projected at a deficit of 17.4 percent
of GDP in 2020 and will improve only gradually, consistent with the
projected pick up in tourism in 2022. Foreign reserves reached a
record level of $2.3 billion in October and should remain well
above the minimum suggested threshold of three months of imports
over the medium-term. Risks around the baseline are high,
reflecting the uncertain evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, and
vulnerability to weather-related natural disasters.

Providing near-term fiscal support, preserving sustainability and
ensuring a resilient recovery

The key near-term challenge is to save lives, preserve livelihoods
and mitigate scarring effects . The continuation of the various
COVID-19 related measures to support the vulnerable, employment and
the health sector in the 2020/21 budget is appropriate. The planned
capital projects—hospitals, roads, and infrastructure
rehabilitations—should be put through rigorous appraisal and
selection processes. The authorities are encouraged to phase out
the broad set of hurricane and pandemic-related tax waivers at the
first legislative opportunity as there are more effective and
targeted measures to support the vulnerable. Given the substantial
uncertainty about the outlook, a detailed and explicit contingency
plan should be developed.

Achieving the Fiscal Responsibility Act targets over the medium
term will require additional fiscal effort . The withdrawal of
fiscal support is expected to start next fiscal year as the various
pandemic and hurricane-related measures phase out. Given the
significant increase in public debt, postponing the achievement of
the debt target by another two years in response to the pandemic
would be appropriate. However, achieving the debt target of 50
percent of GDP by the beginning of the next decade will require
significant additional fiscal effort compared to what is planned in
the medium-term budget framework. It is advisable to start
preparing measures now and communicate a timetable to implement
them as soon as the pandemic-related uncertainty subsides.

Tax policy and administration measures are essential to a robust
consolidation . Comprehensive real estate price indices would
facilitate market-value-based property taxation, while the
progressive features of the current system could be strengthened by
increasing the rate on higher value residences. Income taxation can
help achieve a more equitable income distribution. In tax
administration, the review and modernization of the Department of
Inland Revenue's organizational structure should be prioritized.
For customs, priorities include establishing an effective exemption
monitoring and verification unit, strengthening risk management,
and developing post-audit clearance capacity.

A reprioritization of public spending would promote inclusive and
resilient medium-term growth. Savings could be achieved through
containing administrative costs and improving the operational
efficiency of state-owned enterprises to facilitate a reduction in
state-owned enterprises' (SOE) subsidies. The planned comprehensive
spending review should be used to identify areas offering scope for
savings, and to develop a guiding framework to rank outlays by
their medium-term effects on growth and resilience.

The Bahamas would benefit from a robust financing strategy. Central
government debt is projected to increase to over 85 percent of GDP
this fiscal year. Financing needs will decline only gradually over
the medium-term, resulting in elevated risks of debt distress. A
robust, multi-year government financing strategy should also aim to
support the overall foreign exchange position. The new debt
management office within the Ministry of Finance should be fully
operationalized without delay.

Ensuring financial stability

Monetary policy should continue focusing on reserve adequacy. The
COVID-19 related capital flow measures are appropriate for now but
should be monitored closely and phased out when the pandemic
recedes. The new central bank law, which, among others, limits
lending to the government, and the listing of government debt on
the Bahamas International Stock Exchange in July 2020, will help
strengthen domestic debt markets. Establishing an asset registry
and real estate price index would reduce information asymmetries
and support monetary policy transmission.

The banking sector remains vulnerable to pandemic-induced risks .
Although direct exposures to tourism are limited, lower incomes and
higher unemployment will eventually weigh on asset quality as loan
moratoria expire. The central bank should provide guidance to banks
to ensure their estimates of expected credit losses are robust and
ask for regular loan portfolio reviews and risk assessments. The
recent legislative reforms of crisis management, resolution, and
safety nets are timely, but their effective implementation,
including by ensuring adequate staffing at the central bank,
remains key.

The authorities are encouraged to further enhance systemic risk
oversight . The collection of loan-level data would assist in
market monitoring and future implementation of loan-to-value and
debt-to-income-based lending standards. Interagency coordination on
systemic matters could be enhanced, and the central bank should
have the authority to recommend regulatory policy for non-bank
financial institutions. The central bank is encouraged to further
strengthen its data collection and capacity for assessing solvency
and liquidity risks.

The "Sand Dollar" digital currency (CBDC), which was rolled out to
all residents in October, can help foster more financial inclusion.
It will allow previously unbanked parts of the population to
participate in digital payments and enhance payment infrastructure
resilience to natural disasters. However, there are risks to
financial intermediation, integrity, and cybersecurity that require
careful consideration and monitoring. The operationalization of the
credit bureau would also improve financial inclusion.

Adopting international standards and best practices

Ensuring effective implementation of the strengthened anti-money
laundering/combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) framework
will be key. Good progress in implementing action items agreed with
the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has been noted. In February
2020, the FATF made an initial determination that The Bahamas had
largely completed its action plan. An on-site assessment to verify
complete implementation took place in November, with results
expected to be published by early 2021.

Tax transparency efforts are showing first results, but there is
scope to expand accountability initiatives to the wider public
sector. The EU removed The Bahamas from its list of Non-Cooperative
Jurisdictions for Tax Purposes in February 2020, highlighting
recent efforts to improve information exchange and tackling harmful
tax practices. All public sector entities, from small to large
public enterprises, can benefit from similar efforts, at a minimum
by timely publishing financial information.

Boosting potential growth and enhancing resilience against natural
disasters

The Bahamas faces long-standing structural impediments, and
COVID-19 brought them to the fore. Reform priorities, many of which
are listed in the recent report by the Economic Recovery Committee,
include modernizing administrative services and rationalizing
regulatory requirements for starting a business; enhancing the
operational efficiencies of utility SOEs; and reducing frictions in
the job matching process.

The prospect of more frequent natural disasters makes it paramount
to further enhance resilience. The disaster relief fund, which was
exhausted following Hurricane Dorian should be gradually rebuilt. A
proactive data exchange among relevant agencies can increase
agility of social programs, while better targeting could broaden
the reach of services. A mandatory insurance for all private
properties, not just for those financed by mortgages, can help
increase private sector resilience. To ease the socioeconomic
burden, a means-tested subsidy for insurance premiums could be
considered.



===========
B R A Z I L
===========

TRIANGULO DO SOL: Moody's Withdraws Ba3 Global Scale Issuer Rating
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's America Latina Ltda. withdrawn TRIANGULO DO SOL AUTO -
ESTRADAS S/A Ba3/A3.br issuer ratings. Prior to the withdrawal, the
outlook on the ratings was negative.

The following ratings were withdrawn:

Issuer: TRIANGULO DO SOL AUTO - ESTRADAS S/A

Issuer Ratings: Ba3 (Global Scale Rating), A3.br (National Scale
Rating)

RATINGS RATIONALE

Moody's has decided to withdraw the ratings for its own business
reasons.

Triangulo do Sol holds a 23-year toll road concession granted in
1998 to operate a 442-kilometer (km) toll road system composed of
three roads located in the State of Sao Paulo: SP-310 (Rodovia
Washington Luís), SP-326 (Rodovia Brigadeiro Faria Lima) and
SP-333 (Rodovia Carlos Tonani, Nemesio Cadetti, Laurentino Mascari
and Dr. Mario Gentil). Triangulo do Sol is part of AB CONCESSÕES
S.A, one of the five largest toll road operators in Brazil. AB
Concessões' largest shareholder is Atlantia S.p.A., with a
controlling stake of 50%+1 share, while Hauolimau Empreendimentos e
Participações S.A. (Bertin's Group and Tarallo's Family) holds
the remaining stake. In 2019, Triangulo do Sol reported net
operating revenues (net of construction revenues) of BRL507 million
and EBITDA of BRL423 million.



===============
C O L O M B I A
===============

COLOMBIA: $161.8MM IDB Loan to Help Sustain Social Security System
-------------------------------------------------------------------
With the objective of supporting the improvement of the Colombian
social security system's sustainability, the Inter-American
Development Bank (IDB) approved a US$161.8 million program. These
will be destined to improve the management of the total cost of
services and technologies in health, as well as the efficiency and
coverage of the General Social Security System; and to increase
health coverage for the immigrant population.

In Colombia, the social security system has made important
structural advances. However, both COVID-19 and the
sociodemographic transition facing the country, present challenges
that threaten its economic sustainability and puts at risk the
successes achieved in coverage and financial protection. Added to
this, the country faces specific challenges to its social security
system, such as limited financing for new technologies; a
fragmented model of care; and a flow of migrants whose health needs
are being attended through the emergency system and not the
insurance.

The funds will be used for three components. The first component
will seek to alleviate the pressures that affect health spending
for the provision of services and technologies not financed with
the per capita Payment Unit without affecting the quality of
service provision. The second component is a model of comprehensive
territorial action that allows improving the efficiency and
effective coverage of the General Social Security System. The third
component is coverage for insurance and services for the immigrant
population, which will provide coverage to insure immigrants and
coverage of services for the vulnerable immigrant population.

With this project it is expected to obtain savings for: services
and technologies not financed with the Unit of per capita payment
in contributory; number of departments / districts that are
monitored for health promotion and maintenance program activities;
and affiliated immigrant population.

The program is made up of a US$150 million loan that will have a
repayment term of 14.7 years and a LIBOR interest rate; and a
US$11.8 million of non-reimbursable resources aimed at improving
access to health for the migrant population, of which US$9.6
million are contributed from the IDB migration facility and US$2.2
from the German government. This operation is the first under the
Disbursement for Results modality in Colombia. In addition, this
program is financed by an additional $150 million from the World
Bank.



===================================
D O M I N I C A N   R E P U B L I C
===================================

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: 85,461 Domestic Workers Lose Jobs in 2019
-------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that domestic work has also been one of the
most affected by the coronavirus pandemic, with 85,461 jobs lost in
this sector during confinement than in 2019.

This figure was released by the Ministry of Economy, Planning, and
Development (MEPyD) in a study analyzing the impact of COVID-19,
according to Dominican Today.

The research highlights that the main domestic employees lost were
informal, the report notes.

                       Effects on Employment

The study states that FASE covered 73% of the people suspended
between March and July in the formal private sector, the report
notes.

It adds that between April and May, there was a drop of 530,029
jobs, but between June and October, 58% of the jobs lost had
already been recovered, so that only 211,000 jobs would remain to
be recovered at present, the report says.

                       Other Vulnerable Sectors

Research presented by the ministry's director of Poverty,
Inequality and Democratic Culture Analysis, Rosa Canete Alonso,
indicates that 13,000 hairdressers also lost their income sources,
the report relays.

Canete Alonso considered that the study concluded that there are
challenges for social protection, among which are the mechanisms
for formal work and expanding social protection systems to address
them better, the report adds.

                About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the
island of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo
Domingo has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada
de America dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district.

Luis Rodolfo Abinader Corona is the current president of the
nation.

The Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America reported in April 2019
that the Dominican Today related that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

Standard & Poor's, on December 4, 2020, affirmed its 'BB-'
long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on
the Dominican Republic. The outlook remains negative. S&P also
affirmed its 'B' short-term
sovereign credit ratings.

The negative outlook reflects S&P's view that it could lower the
ratings on the Dominican Republic over the next six to 18 months,
given the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the
sovereign's already vulnerable fiscal and external profiles, as
well as the potential for a weaker-than-expected economic
recovery.

Moody's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last set at Ba3
with stable outlook (July 2017). Fitch's credit rating for
Dominican Republic was last reported at BB- with negative outlook
(May 8, 2020).


DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Construction Sector Recovers Amid Concern
-------------------------------------------------------------
Dominican Today reports that despite the signs of recovery that the
Dominican Republic's construction sector since its reopening last
May, the first vice president of the Association of Housing
Builders and Promoters (Acoprovi), Jorge Montalvo, shows concern
because the main items have risen 33%.

"Expectations are good at the moment. We believe that it will
continue to recover for next year and that, since the reopening in
May, at the end of last May, sales have been normalizing. But there
are some aspects that concern us, which are, for example, the
increases that have occurred in construction materials in recent
months," said the Acoprovi executive, according to Dominican
Today.

He said the price of paint increased 21%, concrete 23%, cement 13%,
aggregates 13%, PVC pipes 24%, electrical materials 33%, blocks
20%, among others, the report notes.

"When you calculate the main inputs for the construction sector and
take an average, that gives you about 18%. That 18% of materials
you later take it to what it represents in the cost of housing
construction. That is around 13%," the report relays.

                About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the
island of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo
Domingo has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada
de America dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district.

Luis Rodolfo Abinader Corona is the current president of the
nation.

The Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America reported in April 2019
that the Dominican Today related that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

Standard & Poor's, on December 4, 2020, affirmed its 'BB-'
long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on
the Dominican Republic. The outlook remains negative. S&P also
affirmed its 'B' short-term
sovereign credit ratings.

The negative outlook reflects S&P's view that it could lower the
ratings on the Dominican Republic over the next six to 18 months,
given the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the
sovereign's already vulnerable fiscal and external profiles, as
well as the potential for a weaker-than-expected economic
recovery.

Moody's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last set at Ba3
with stable outlook (July 2017). Fitch's credit rating for
Dominican Republic was last reported at BB- with negative outlook
(May 8, 2020).


DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Offers to Buy Existing Notes
------------------------------------------------
The Dominican Republic (the "Republic") announced the commencement
of an offer to purchase for cash (the "Offer") from each registered
holder (each, a "Holder" and, collectively, the "Holders") notes of
each series  (collectively, the "Existing Notes" and each a
"series" of Existing Notes) such that the Total Purchase Price (as
defined below) to be paid for the outstanding principal amount of
Existing Notes validly tendered and accepted for purchase by the
Republic pursuant to the Offer does not exceed a maximum amount to
be determined by the Republic in its sole discretion (the "Maximum
Purchase Price"). The terms and conditions of the Offer are set
forth in the offer document dated Tuesday, December 1, 2020 (the
"Offer Document").

The Offer is not conditioned upon any minimum participation of any
series of Existing Notes but is conditioned, among other things, on
the concurrent (or earlier) closing of an additional issuance by
the Republic of its existing 4.875% Bonds due 2032, in an aggregate
principal amount, with pricing and on terms and conditions
acceptable to the Republic in its sole discretion. The offering of
the 4.875% Bonds due 2032 will be made solely by means of an
offering memorandum relating to that offering, and neither this
announcement nor the Offer Document constitutes an offer to sell or
the solicitation of an offer to buy such bonds.

The Republic reserves the right, in its sole discretion, not to
accept any valid orders to tender Existing Notes in accordance with
the terms and conditions of the Offer ("Tenders"), to modify the
fixed price, per each original US$1,000 principal amount of
Existing Notes, indicated in the rightmost column on the table
below (the "Purchase Price") for any or all series of Existing
Notes, or to terminate the Offer for any reason. In the event of a
termination of the Offer, the tendered Existing Notes will be
returned to the tendering Holder.

The total purchase price for the principal amount of a series of
Existing Notes validly tendered by a Holder and accepted by the
Republic (the "Total Purchase Price") will be an amount in cash
equal to the original principal amount of such Existing Notes,
multiplied by the Purchase Price, and then multiplied by the Factor
(as defined herein), plus accrued and unpaid interest on such
Existing Notes up to, but excluding, the Settlement Date ("Accrued
Interest"). If the Total Purchase Price minus Accrued Interest for
all validly tendered Existing Notes (the "Tendered Aggregate
Purchase Price") would exceed the Maximum Purchase Price, then the
Republic will, in its sole discretion, select one or more series of
Existing Notes to be prorated on the basis of the same or different
proration factors.

                About Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the
island of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo
Domingo has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada
de America dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district.

Luis Rodolfo Abinader Corona is the current president of the
nation.

The Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America reported in April 2019
that the Dominican Today related that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD
Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the
Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues,
growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if
that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international
commitments."

An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of
participants in the electricity sector to establish financial
viability for the system.

Standard & Poor's, on December 4, 2020, affirmed its 'BB-'
long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on
the Dominican Republic. The outlook remains negative. S&P also
affirmed its 'B' short-term
sovereign credit ratings.

The negative outlook reflects S&P's view that it could lower the
ratings on the Dominican Republic over the next six to 18 months,
given the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the
sovereign's already vulnerable fiscal and external profiles, as
well as the potential for a weaker-than-expected economic
recovery.

Moody's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last set at Ba3
with stable outlook (July 2017). Fitch's credit rating for
Dominican Republic was last reported at BB- with negative outlook
(May 8, 2020).




=============
J A M A I C A
=============

JAMAICA: S&P Affirms 'B+' Long-Term Sovereign Credit Rating
-----------------------------------------------------------
On Dec. 8, 2020, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B+' long-term
foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings, its 'B'
short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on
Jamaica, and its 'BB-' transfer and convertibility assessment. The
outlook is negative.

Outlook

S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects our view that there is at
least a one-in-three chance that we could lower the ratings on
Jamaica over the next 12 months if the strong economic recovery
that we expect in 2021 is weaker, or the pandemic is more
prolonged, than our base case. If such a scenario were to result in
prolonged deficits at current high levels, or weaker external
accounts, we could lower the ratings.

"Alternatively, we could revise the outlook to stable over the next
12 months if risks of a more severe or prolonged outbreak were to
subside, the country's public finances began returning to previous
levels, and its external position remained in line with our
forecast."

Rationale

S&P said, "We believe the ongoing pandemic and the related economic
contraction and fall in government revenues remain a heightened
risk to Jamaica's economy, public finances, and external accounts;
consequently, we have maintained our negative outlook.

"Our ratings on Jamaica continue to be limited by the country's
high debt and interest burden, which restrict its fiscal
flexibility. We expect the economy will recover from the pandemic
over the next few years; nevertheless, we expect average GDP growth
will be lower than that of peers, and will remain constrained by
structural impediments. The government's commitment to resume
fiscal consolidation following the pandemic fosters macroeconomic
stability--including stable inflation--and supports the country's
creditworthiness. We believe that Jamaica's policymaking stability
and predictability are bolstered by the institutionalization of
fiscal consolidation policies. We believe ongoing changes in the
governance and mandate of the central bank could gradually improve
Jamaica's limited monetary flexibility."

Institutional and economic profile: Economic shock of the pandemic
is expected to wane over 2021 and the government's reelection will
foster policy consistency.

-- The pandemic has led to a sharp contraction in Jamaican GDP in
2020.

-- S&P expects growth will resume in 2021 and 2022, but
bottlenecks, such as crime, will continue limiting the long-term
pace of growth.

-- The government's reelection and commitment to sustainable
fiscal policy should support macroeconomic stability in the medium
term.

The pandemic has led to a significant contraction in the economy,
primarily in the important tourism sector, but also in other
sectors affected by public health measures and the global economy.
S&P said, "Our base case assumes a dramatic decline in tourism as
well as lower activity in related sectors. Although we expect a
rebound in tourism in 2021, we do not expect a full recovery until
2022-2023, at the earliest. We believe that the pace of recovery
will depend on the timing of the outbreak peak in Jamaica and key
visitors' countries, the nature and resiliency of the tourism
sector and sectors that indirectly depend on tourism, and the
government's policy response."

S&P said, "Jamaica's economy is relatively well diversified;
therefore, we expect the contraction will be more moderate than in
many other Caribbean sovereigns. Under our base case, we expect GDP
per capita will shrink to just below US$5,200 this year, down about
11.4% from almost US$5,900 in 2019. Although there is a high
uncertainty about the duration of the pandemic and the effects on
local economies, our base case assumes the impact of COVID-19 will
be temporary, and we expect a strong--although not full--economic
recovery in 2021. We believe nominal GDP will reach pre-outbreak
levels in 2022."

Tourism, agriculture, mining, and manufacturing make Jamaica
diversified for a small open economy. Nevertheless, growth is
constrained by high security costs, perceived corruption, low
productivity, lack of business competitiveness, and vulnerability
to external shocks. S&P said, "Links between tourism and other
sectors, especially agriculture, are limited, in our opinion,
muting the impact of tourism growth on the overall economy. Over
the longer term, we believe structural barriers will continue to
impede stronger economic growth in Jamaica. We expect the country's
10-year weighted-average growth will be 1.1%, which is below that
of sovereigns in the same GDP category. Although the government
continues to address this issue through the Economic Growth Council
and a dedicated department in the Ministry of Tourism, we expect
that the dividends of these efforts will take time to translate
into higher GDP growth."

National elections were held in September and the incumbent party
won a strong majority. S&P said, "We expect policy continuity as a
result, including continued commitment to fiscal consolidation, to
foster macroeconomic stability. Jamaica's two main political
parties--the ruling Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) and the opposition
People's National Party (PNP)--share a similar outlook on economic
policymaking and commitment to fiscal consolidation. This political
commitment has survived changes in government and we believe is
representative of bipartisan consensus on the general direction of
macroeconomic policies. Although we view Jamaica's policymaking as
relatively effective, crime continues to aggravate civil society."
This, in addition to concerns about the prevalence of corruption
and the enforcement of contracts, remain key factors that hamper
the country's productivity.

In 2013, Jamaica entered an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program
with the IMF, which was followed by a precautionary Stand-By
Agreement (SBA) in 2016. The SBA expired in November 2019. Under
the EFF, Jamaica implemented a series of fiscal reforms to meet the
strict fiscal targets under the program, generating primary
surpluses. To do so, local authorities focused on identifying
redundancies and services that public sector entities could share;
and establishing clear controls on public sector wages, among other
measures. The government has made progress toward these goals and
had entered 2020 with an overall budgetary surplus (which it could
direct toward pandemic-related health and social spending) and a
debt to GDP ratio below 100%. In the past few years, the government
has shifted spending toward expenditures to support growth, and we
expect that spending will again move toward such expenditures as
the economy recovers.

Flexibility and performance profile: S&P expects a return to fiscal
austerity targets in the next one-two years while Jamaica remains
vulnerable to external shocks.

-- An improving economy will support government finances, and S&P
expects the country will return to fiscal surpluses over the next
couple of years.

-- S&P expects the government will stabilize the recent spike in
its debt burden, although the high level of foreign
currency-denominated debt leaves the country exposed to exchange
rate fluctuations.

Still high, albeit improving, external liquidity needs and
indebtedness make the country vulnerable to external shocks.
After three years of fiscal surpluses, the country will return to a
deficit position in 2020/2021. The general government debt burden
will increase due to fiscal deficits and the impact of currency
depreciation, as much of the debt is denominated in foreign
currency. Nevertheless, S&P believes Jamaica will return to fiscal
surpluses and a declining debt burden in the next couple of years.

Heading into 2020, the government of Jamaica had been planning
fiscal surpluses and a continuation of debt retirement; however, at
the onset of the pandemic the government shifted its focus to
health and social measures. Owing to the surplus from the 2019/2020
fiscal year, the government was able to deploy almost J$20 million.
In 2020, it introduced an additional J$8 billion in health
spending, as well as almost J$20 billion via the COVID-19
Allocation of Resources for Employees (CARE) Program that provided
cash transfers to persons affected by the pandemic. In addition to
spending measures, a fall in revenues will also put pressure on
government finances, and lead to an estimated deficit of about 4%
of GDP and a rise in debt to about 100% of GDP in 2020. S&P expects
the government will finance most of the deficit domestically, to
mitigate the costs of foreign exchange movements on debt service.

Jamaica's debt burden has significant exposure to exchange rate
movements, as approximately 60% of general government debt is
denominated in foreign currency. Currency depreciation caused the
government's external debt to rise 7.9% in the first four months of
the current fiscal year. S&P said, "We do not expect the government
will raise new foreign currency-denominated debt in the domestic
market in the medium term. We expect the government will seek to
refinance external maturities through domestic issuances and
revenue, to the extent that the private sector is not crowded out.
We assess Jamaica's contingent liabilities from the financial
sector and all nonfinancial public enterprises as limited. The
limited assessment of contingent liabilities of banks is based on
our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment score of '8' (with '1'
being the lowest-risk category and '10' the highest) and the ratio
of banking sector assets to GDP of less than 100%."

S&P said, "We expect tourism-driven exports will severely contract
in 2020, although the impact on the current account will be
partially mitigated by a fall in imports, given the high import
component of tourism in the country. Services, which include
tourism, account for about 40% of current account receipts,
according to the latest available annual data. The country should
benefit from the fall in global oil prices, which we believe
represent about a quarter of merchandise imports. Nevertheless, we
expect the current account deficit could widen to about 7% of GDP,
based on lower tourism receipts that are only partially mitigated
by declining oil prices and tourism-related imports.

"We expect the external debt of the public and financial sectors,
net of usable reserves and financial sector external assets, will
be about 132% of current account receipts in 2020 and the country's
gross external financing needs will rise to 109% of current account
receipts and usable reserves in 2020, from about 97% in 2019."

Shortly after the onset of the pandemic in 2020, the government
obtained $520 million via the IMF's Rapid Financing Instruments
(RFI), as a precaution to support balance of payments needs. Unlike
previous IMF support, the RFI funds are granted without policy
conditionality. Although we understand that they could be
reallocated to budgetary support, to date, the funds remain with
the Bank of Jamaica to support the country's foreign exchange
reserves. This debt is added to our measure of general government
debt.

Despite the pre-pandemic improvement in external liquidity and the
debt burden, Jamaica remains vulnerable to external shocks. To
address the country's vulnerabilities to weather-related events,
the government has created a disaster risk policy framework to
build resiliency and respond quicker in the aftermath of a
disaster, which served Jamaica well at the onset of the pandemic.
In addition, S&P believes the country faces elevated risk of
disruptions to external funding, given that Jamaica's net external
liability position is substantially worse than its net external
debt position.

S&P believes that economic policy continuity will support low
inflation over the next several years and that through
accommodative monetary policy, and despite some recent upward
pressure on prices, inflation will remain within the central bank's
target of 4%-6% over the medium term. Although it has a short track
record, the central bank will continue to facilitate orderly
movements in the local currency, in line with the floating exchange
rate, as shown by the two-way movement recorded against the U.S.
dollar in the past year. Although dollarization is still high in
the financial system, it has steadily declined in the past couple
of years. At the end of 2019, about 38% of financial assets were
denominated in U.S. dollars, down from 46% at the end of 2016.

In addition, the government recently approved revisions to the Bank
of Jamaica Act to support inflation targeting, such as changing the
central bank's mandate, strengthening its operational independence,
and improving market transparency. It will take time to gain more
credibility before these measures lead to fully operational
inflation targeting. S&P believes that monetary policy tools still
have a limited impact on the economy, given low--albeit
rising--levels of private sector lending and limited secondary bond
market trading.

  Ratings List

  Ratings Affirmed

  Jamaica
   Sovereign Credit Rating   B+/Negative/B
   Transfer & Convertibility Assessment
    Local Currency      BB-
    Senior Unsecured    B+

  Air Jamaica Ltd.
   Senior Unsecured     B+
   
  National Road Operating and Constructing Co. Ltd
   Senior Unsecured     B+




===========
M E X I C O
===========

BRASKEM IDESA: Fitch Downgrades LT IDRs to B+
---------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Braskem Idesa, S. A. P. I.'s Long-Term
Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'B+'
from 'BB-'. Fitch has also downgraded Braskem Idesa's senior
secured note to 'B+' from 'BB-'. Fitch has assigned the Recovery
Rating of 'RR4' for the secured notes. All the ratings have been
placed on Rating Watch Negative.

Braskem Idesa's downgrade follows the shutdown of its sole
petrochemical operation (Ethylene XXI) in Mexico. The halting of
operations is due to the Mexican government-controlled gas pipeline
operator, Centro Nacional de Control del Gas Natural's (CENAGAS),
decision to terminate natural gas transportation services. Natural
gas is used as fuel in the ethylene production process.

This action follows repeated calls for the cancelation or
renegotiation of the ethane supply contract between Braskem Idesa
and Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex; IDR BB-/Stable) by Mexican
authorities. Ethane is the key raw material for the production of
ethylene. Pemex's marked production declines have made it difficult
for it to fulfill its ethane supply commitments under this
contract, which has resulted in Braskem Idesa operating below
expected capacity and Pemex incurring liquidated damages payment
obligations to Braskem Idesa.

The one-notch downgrade reflects Fitch's base case expectation that
the company will be able to find alternative fuel sources that will
allow it to resume operation but at a lower capacity utilization
level and with a higher cost structure. The one-notch downgrade and
Rating Watch Negative also reflects heightened risk that the
company will need to renegotiate its ethane supply agreement with
Pemex with less favorable terms.

Fitch will evaluate Braskem Idesa's Rating Watch Negative status
following the restart of the facility to determine if the new
output levels and cost structure provide a sufficient level of cash
flow relative to debt service to maintain the 'B+' rating. A
failure to resume operations in the near-future would likely lead
to a multi-notch downgrade.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

CENEGAS Announcement: Braskem Idesa announced on Dec. 2, 2020 that
CENAGAS had made a unilateral decision to terminate its natural gas
transportation services. This event highlighted the ongoing
disputes between Braskem Idesa and the Mexican government, which
has indicated its desire to cancel and/or renegotiate the ethane
contract Braskem Idesa has with Pemex. Braskem Idesa has stated
that it will take the applicable legal measures to protect its
rights. The timeframe is still highly uncertain.

Single Facility Shutdown: Braskem has initiated the shutdown of its
single operating facility due to lack of natural gas, which is an
essential energy input for the production of ethylene (8% of Cost
of Goods Sold [COGS] needs as of 3Q20). Fitch estimates that the
company has about two months of inventory and account receivables
that it could monetize in the short term for liquidity. As of Sept.
30 2020, those accounts were USD132 million and USD94 million,
respectively.

Political Risk: Braskem Idesa heavily depends on government
entities that provide not only transportation of natural gas, but
ethane from Pemex and alternative sources of electric power, which
are all essential to the viability of its operations. The
government has publicly stated its desire to cancel or renew the
contract. Given the strong legal framework of the project finance
terms, Braskem Idesa has a put option against Pemex, in case of
default on its contractual obligations that would make Pemex assume
Braskem Idesa's debt and remunerate its shareholders for their
invested capital.

Exposure to Pemex: Pemex's lack of investments has resulted in a
decline of its total production, including ethane and natural gas.
Braskem Idesa and Pemex's ethane contract includes Pemex supplying
66k bpd of supply of ethane, which it has not been able to deliver.
During the last nine months Pemex was only able to provide about
48k bpd of the ethane on average to Braskem Idesa. Further, Braskem
Idesa is not receiving the credit notes that should have been
issued by PEMEX as liquidated damages for the supply of ethane at a
volume below that established in the contract. The accrued balance
as of Sept. 30, 2020 in credit notes that should have being issued
by Pemex is estimated at USD64 million.

Strategy to Diversify Raw Material Source: Despite some
improvements from recent investments, Braskem Idesa remains
dependent on Pemex's ethane supply. During February 2020, Braskem
Idesa initiated the operation of a fast-track project to import
ethane from the U.S. (capex of USD3.5 million), which is expected
to ramp-up, allowing imported ethane to reach up to 16k bpd by 2021
(out of 25k bpd of capacity), or 38% of total needs. The
construction of a new import terminal for ethane by Braskem Idesa
is not incorporated into the analysis. The company seeks logistic
partners for this project and potential impact on the rating from
this development will depend on terms and financing conditions.

Good Business Position: Braskem Idesa is a single asset complex
polyethylene producer with a relatively large business scale, which
is capable of producing 1.0 million ton when operating at normal
levels, compared to global peers in the industry; its production
facility is modern and uses industry leading technology. The
company has a market share of around 34% in Mexico in the segments
of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and low-density polyethylene
(LDPE). Its competition is primarily importing of PE. The company's
PE products serves a broad and diverse range of end markets,
including packaging, food and beverage, industrials, construction
and others. Amid the coronavirus pandemic, Braskem Idesa was able
to maintain solid sales volumes due to its cost competitive
advantages. The petrochemical industry remained operating at full
capacity, as it is considered an essential business.

New Contract to Change Profitability: The company has a 20-year
supply agreement to purchase ethane from state-owned Pemex at a
competitive market reference. A competitive feedstock in
combination with Braskem Idesa's large scale and modern facilities
has resulted in high EBITDA margins (40%-50%), which compares
favorably to margins of its peers of between 20% and 25% during
high periods in the cycle. A potential change in the contract terms
would likely change this profitability level and its debt service
coverage ratios. At this time, there is high levels of uncertainty
unknown in terms of potential changes in the contract, such as
volumes and/or prices.

No Immediate Liquidity Risk: Fitch believes that Braskem Idesa has
the capacity to comply with its short-term obligations, including
the fixed costs associated with the stopped facility, principal and
interest. As of Sep. 30 2020, Braskem Idesa reported USD187 million
of cash, USD224 million of short-term debt and USD2.2 billion of
long-term debt obligations (USD1.5 billion of project finance debt
and USD900 million of secured bonds). The company also has a debt
service reserve account of USD194 million and access to a
contingent equity line of USD208 million. Fitch estimates that
Braskem Idesa has around USD62 million of obligations in principal
and interests in 1Q21 and around USD103 million in 2Q21. Fitch
estimates that Braskem Idesa's fixed cost and maintenance of the
facility is around USD8.3 million per month, although the shutdown
would probably reduce this amount.

Moderate Rating Linkage: Braskem Idesa and its controlling
shareholder Braskem S.A. (75% equity interests, IDR BB+/Stable)
have some operational and functional ties within the production and
sale of PE. Braskem Idesa is strategically important for Braskem as
Braskem Idesa diversifies Braskem's feedstock sources and increases
its access to other markets. Legal ties are weak, as the parent
does not guarantee the debt obligations of the subsidiary. Braskem
Idesa's project finance debt has a strong set of covenants that
limits financial flexibility and dividends distributions. As of
Sept. 30, 2020, Braskem Idesa reported MXN53 billions of
subordinated shareholder loans, MXN40 billion with Braskem and
MXN13 billion with Grupo IDESA.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Braskem Idesa's current ratings reflects risks associated with its
operating facility being shut down and uncertainties related to
potential change in terms of its ethane supply contract with
Pemex.

Historically, Braskem Idesa benefited from access to a competitive
cost feedstock, with its EBITDA margin well positioned relative to
other PE producers such as Braskem S.A. (BB+/Stable) and more
diversified players such as Dow Chemical Company (BBB/Stable) in
terms of operating margins. Braskem Idesa compares positively with
its Latin American chemical peers such as Alpek S.A (BBB-/Stable)
or Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B de C.V. (BBB/Negative).
Nevertheless, Braskem Idesa has a higher exposure to
supply/contract risks compared to its peers. The company also has a
weaker position in terms of exposure to a single asset and product,
as well as limited geographic diversification. Braskem Idesa's net
leverage ratio is expected to be well above most of its peers until
mid-2022, when its net leverage should decline to below 4.0x. The
average net leverage for the Latin American investment grade
chemicals peers is around 2.5x, while Dow's net leverage is around
2.0x.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's Key Assumptions Within Its Rating Case for the Issuer

  - Braskem Idesa fulfilling its operational and financial
obligations on time while restarting its operations using
alternative fuel sources;

  - No equity support from shareholders, besides the contingent
equity of USD208 million guaranteed by Braskem S.A.

Recovery Ratings Assumptions

The recovery analysis assumes that Braskem Idesa would be
considered a going concern in bankruptcy and that the company would
be reorganized rather than liquidated. Fitch has assumed a 10%
administrative claim.

Going-Concern Approach

The going-concern EBITDA is USD350 million to reflect a mid-cycle
analysis and the volatility in the petrochemical industry's volume
and prices. The enterprise valuation/EBITDA multiple applied is 5x,
reflecting Braskem Idesa's modern asset base and strong market
share in Mexico.

Fitch applies a waterfall analysis to the post-default enterprise
value based on the relative claims of the debt in the capital
structure. Fitch's debt waterfall assumptions take into account the
company's total debt at Sept. 30, 2020. These assumptions result in
a recovery rate for the secured bonds within the 'RR3' range, but
due to the soft cap of Mexico at 'RR4' Braskem Idesa's senior
secured notes due 2029 are rated 'B+'/'RR4'.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

  -- Braskem Idesa's Negative Rating Watch status is likely to be
removed if the company is able to resume its operations on
sustainable basis and/or elimination of uncertainties surrounding
the supply contract with Pemex.

  -- A lower dependence on Pemex's ethane supply and/or elimination
of uncertainties surrounding the contract with Pemex should improve
Braskem Idesa's business risk and lead Fitch to reevaluate the
company's ratings.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

  -- Lack of resolution of the raw material supply agreements after
six months.

  -- A restart of operations with materially higher cost and
significantly lower capacity utilization levels.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Adequate Liquidity including Additional Reserves: As of Sept. 30
2020, Braskem Idesa reported USD187 million of cash, USD224 million
of short-term debt and USD2.2 billion of long-term debt obligations
(USD1.5 billion of project finance debt and USD900 million of
secured bonds due to 2029). The company also has a debt service
reserve account of USD194 million and access to a contingent equity
line of USD208 million.

SOURCES OF INFORMATION

In accordance with Fitch policies, the issuer appealed and provided
additional information to Fitch that resulted in a rating action
that is different than the original rating committee outcome.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Braskem Idesa has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for governance
structure due to shareholder concentration and track record of
corruption scandal of one of its parent company and '4' for
financial transparency with below average financial disclosure.
This has a negative impact on the credit profile and is relevant to
the rating in conjunction with other factors.

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.



=====================
P U E R T O   R I C O
=====================

AUTO MASTER: Plan of Reorganization Confirmed by Judge
------------------------------------------------------
Judge Enrique S. Lamoutte of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the
District of Puerto Rico has entered an order approving the
Disclosure Statement and confirming Plan of Reorganization of
debtor Auto Master Express Inc.

The Court has determined after notice and a hearing that the
requirements for final approval of the disclosure statement have
been satisfied, and determined after a hearing on notice that the
requirement for confirmation of the plan under 11 U.S.C Sec. 1129
have been satisfied.

A full-text copy of the order dated December 8, 2020, is available
at bit.ly/3qFYO6x from PacerMonitor.com at no charge.

Attorney for the Debtor:

          CARLOS A. RUIZ RODRIGUEZ
          P.O. Box 1298
          Caguas, PR 00726-1298
          Tel: (787)286-9775
          Fax: (787)747-2174
          E-mail: carlosalbertoruizquiebras@gmail.com

                     About Auto Master Express

Auto Master Express Inc. sought protection under Chapter 11 of the
Bankruptcy Code (Bankr. D.P.R. Case No. 18-01464) on March 19,
2018.  At the time of the filing, the Debtor estimated assets of
less than $500,000 and liabilities of less than $1 million.  The
Debtor engaged Lcdo. Carlos Alberto Ruiz, CSP, as its legal
counsel.


                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter
co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless
Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C.,
USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T.
Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A.
Chapman, Editors.

Copyright 2020.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2746.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic
re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior
written permission of the publishers.

Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
be reliable, but is not guaranteed.

The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year,
delivered via e-mail.  Additional e-mail subscriptions for members
of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or
balance thereof are US$25 each.  For subscription information,
contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000.
.


                  * * * End of Transmission * * *