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/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/200629.mbx T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R L A T I N A M E R I C A Monday, June 29, 2020, Vol. 21, No. 129 Headlines A R G E N T I N A ARGENTINA: Debt Talks Ongoing; More Terms to Cover, Guzman Says B A H A M A S BAHAMAS: Moody's Cuts Issuer & Unsec. Ratings to Ba2, Outlook Neg. B R A Z I L BRAZIL: Economy Forecasted to Contract More Amid Pandemic INTERCEMENT BRASIL: S&P Lowers ICR to 'CC' on Exchange Offer INTERCEMENT PARTICIPACOES: Fitch Cuts IDR to C on Exchange Offer D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Central Bank Projects Rapid Economic Recovery DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Has Opportunity to Attract Foreign Investment J A M A I C A DIGICEL GROUP: Fitch Lowers LT Issuer Default Rating to D JAMAICA: Payouts Made to Small Businesses Under CARE Program M E X I C O ALPHA HOLDING: S&P Affirms 'B-' LongTerm ICR, Outlook Stable X X X X X X X X BOND PRICING: For the Week June 22 to June 26, 2020 LATAM: IMF Forecasts 9.4% Economic Contraction for 2020 - - - - - ================= A R G E N T I N A ================= ARGENTINA: Debt Talks Ongoing; More Terms to Cover, Guzman Says --------------------------------------------------------------- Cassandra, Garrison, Eliana Raszewski at Reuters report that Argentina is still working with its creditors to reach a debt restructuring deal after talks stalled, though there is still distance to cover in economic and legal terms, Economy Minister Martin Guzman said. Guzman said the government is in negotiations with two main creditor groups, though the "biggest differences" remain with the Ad Hoc Bondholder Group, which includes AllianceBernstein, BlackRock, Ashmore and others, according to Reuters. "It takes a lot of dialogue, we remain hopeful that it will be able to in some point reach an agreement, but clearly there is more work to do and there is a distance to cover in economic terms and in legal terms as well," Guzman said at the webinar, hosted by Bloomberg, the report notes. Argentina extended a deadline for $65 billion debt restructuring talks to July 24 after negotiations with creditors reached an impasse, the report discloses. Creditor groups want Argentina to improve its offer, but the government has said it cannot cede ground after raising its proposal to around 50 cents on the dollar, plus an additional export-linked sweetener, the report says. Guzman said ongoing talks with the Argentina Creditor Committee had been constructive, though issues remained to be resolved with the Ad-Hoc bondholders group, specifically around collective action clauses, the report notes. "One of the proposals we received asked Argentina to go back in time and undo the progress that has been done over the last few years, the enhanced collective action clauses endorsed by ICMA (International Capital Markets Association), the G20 and the IMF (International Monetary Fund), and that is not something that Argentina can do," Guzman said, the report relays. A deal with creditors is key for avoiding a messy standoff with Argentina, which in May defaulted for a ninth time, the report adds. About Argentina Argentina is a country located mostly in the southern half of South America. It's capital is Buenos Aires. Alberto Angel Fernandez is the current president of Argentina after winning the October 2019 general election. He succeeded Mauricio Macri in the position. Argentina has the third largest economy in Latin America. The country's economy is an upper middle-income economy for fiscal year 2019 according to the World Bank. Historically, however, its economic performance has been very uneven, with high economic growth alternating with severe recessions, income maldistribution and in the recent decades, increasing poverty. As reported by the Troubled Company Reporter - Latin America on April 14, 2020, Fitch Ratings upgraded Argentina's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating to 'CC' from 'RD' and Short-Term Foreign Currency IDR to 'C' from 'RD'. The TCR-LA reported on April 13, 2020, that S&P Global Ratings also lowered its long- and short-term foreign currency sovereign credit ratings on Argentina to 'SD/SD' from 'CCC-/C'. S&P also affirmed the local currency sovereign credit ratings at 'SD/SD'. There is no outlook on 'SD' ratings. On April 9, the TCR-LA reported that Moody's Investors Service downgraded the Government of Argentina's foreign-currency and local-currency long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Ca from Caa2. ============= B A H A M A S ============= BAHAMAS: Moody's Cuts Issuer & Unsec. Ratings to Ba2, Outlook Neg. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the Government of The Bahamas' long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings by two notches to Ba2 from Baa3. Moody's also changed the outlook to negative. This concludes the review for downgrade that commenced on April 9, 2020. The key drivers behind the rating action were: 1. The large shock caused by the coronavirus crisis will weigh significantly on economic and fiscal strength over the medium term; 2. Funding conditions will become more constrained for the government because of larger financing needs. The negative outlook reflects Moody's expectation that given the severity of the coronavirus shock, the government's credit profile will continue to be exposed to downside risks related to the recovery of the tourism sector. This could weigh on a consolidation process that Moody's currently expects will begin in earnest in fiscal 2021/22. Additionally, given its higher borrowing requirements for fiscal 2020/21, the government could face more pronounced liquidity challenges than currently expected. Moody's has also lowered The Bahamas' long-term foreign-currency bond ceiling to Baa3 from Baa1 and long-term foreign-currency deposit ceiling to Ba3 from Baa3. The short-term foreign-currency bond ceiling was lowered to Prime-3 from Prime-2, whereas the short-term foreign-currency deposit ceiling was lowered to Not Prime from Prime-3. The Bahamas' long-term local currency country risk ceilings were lowered to A3 from A2. The long-term foreign-currency bond ceilings for Bahamas - Off Shore Banking Center was lowered to A2 from Aa3, while the long-term foreign-currency deposit ceiling remains at A2. The short-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings for the Off Shore Banking Center are unchanged at Prime-1. RATINGS RATIONALE RATIONALE FOR THE DOWNGRADE TO Ba2 THE LARGE SHOCK CAUSED BY THE CORONAVIRUS CRISIS WILL WEIGH SIGNIFICANTLY ON ECONOMIC AND FISCAL STRENGTH OVER THE MEDIUM TERM The main driver for the downgrade is the significant negative effect the coronavirus outbreak will have on The Bahamas' economic and fiscal metrics. For The Bahamas, the shock mainly transmits through the sharp decline and potentially prolonged slump in the tourism industry, which represents a sizable proportion of gross value added in the economy as well as a source of government revenue and export earnings. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak to be a social risk under its ESG framework. Tourism's direct contribution to Bahamian GDP is close to 20% of the total, while its indirect contribution through other sectors represents another estimated 20% of GDP. As a consequence of the outbreak, the country closed its borders in late March, which essentially halted the flow of tourists through the second quarter of 2020. The government imposed additional restrictions on movements on the local population to control the spread of the disease, which will also have a negative impact on overall economic activity. Over the past few weeks, the government has gradually lifted some of those restrictions, and the tourism sector is slated to reopen on July 1. However, some hotels will only restart their operations in the fourth quarter of 2020, likely weighing on tourism flows during the rest of the year. Uncertainty about the resumption of the cruise sector also weighs on the short-term outlook for the tourism sector. Given these dynamics, Moody's expects a loss of over 50% of tourism flows in 2020 relative to 2019, which would lead to a GDP contraction of about 16% to 20%. Moody's believes that the recovery of the global tourism sector is exposed to potential changes to consumer behavior following the coronavirus outbreak. The performance of the sector will also depend on the speed of the recovery of the airlines industry and ability to service tourist destinations such as The Bahamas. That said, a recovery in 2021 to 60% to 70% of 2019 tourism flows could lead to a GDP expansion of over 10% in The Bahamas. Notwithstanding this expected increase, The Bahamas' medium-term economic performance will likely remain subdued because of pre-existing structural constraints -- such as weak credit growth, high energy costs and weak ease of doing business -- which hinder the sovereign's economic strength. The large GDP contraction in 2020 will weigh on the fiscal accounts through the fiscal year that ends in June 2021. In the 2020/21 budget that was presented in May, the government estimated a fiscal deficit that would exceed 11% of GDP -- the highest in its history. The large fiscal shortfall reflects a significant loss in revenue, increased capital expenditures to support the economic recovery and reconstruction efforts following the damage caused by Hurricane Dorian in September 2019. Under Moody's baseline scenario, The Bahamas' debt burden will reach 85% of GDP by June 2021, from 60% in June 2019. Additionally, the government's debt affordability will deteriorate as a consequence of higher interest payments and the loss of revenue, which will push the interest-to-revenue ratio to 22.6% in 2020/21 from 13.5% in 2018/19, although Moody's expects the ratio to decline somewhat in subsequent years as government revenue recovers. Overall, The Bahamas' fiscal strength will materially weaken relative to its prior Baa-rated peers. Despite significant improvements in fiscal policy credibility and effectiveness -- as denoted by the strengthening of the fiscal policy framework and significant consolidation achieved between 2016/17 and 2018/19 -- The Bahamas' credit profile will now be more vulnerable to climate-related events given its weaker balance sheet. The government has sought to renew some of the instruments that helped to mitigate the short-term financial impact caused by Hurricane Dorian. However, its more limited fiscal space could translate into heightened government and external liquidity pressures should market access become more constrained. FUNDING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONSTRAINED FOR THE GOVERNMENT BECAUSE OF LARGER FINANCING NEEDS Following the intensification of the coronavirus crisis in March 2020, The Bahamas' sovereign bond spreads widened significantly. The yield on its 2028 global bond reached 11.6% in May but has since stabilized around 8.2%. Even at this lower level, The Bahamas' bond yields are still higher than historical levels of around 6%. This points to more constrained market access and, should these bond spreads remain at these levels, it would increase government liquidity risks and place additional pressure on debt affordability metrics. Moody's forecasts government borrowing needs will exceed 17% of GDP in 2020/21, above historical levels of about 7% of GDP. About 5% of GDP corresponds to principal repayments, most of which are due to reliable domestic sources. Moreover, because of the loss in tourism flows, The Bahamas' external accounts will deteriorate in 2020 and lead to a reduction in its foreign exchange reserves. Consequently, the government plans to finance a large share of its borrowing needs -- over 11% of GDP -- via external sources. Moody's expects the government will be able to fund part of its financing requirements through official creditors, including multilateral institutions. However, the authorities have stated that an important portion of the funding needs will have to be financed through external bond issuances, which will likely prove more expensive than historically and add pressure to debt affordability metrics. RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK Given the severity of the crisis, downside risks to the credit profile will remain over the next two years. There is still significant uncertainty about the strength and speed of the recovery of the global tourism sector. If in particular the recovery in 2021 is weaker than Moody's expects, this would put additional pressure on government revenue and further erode the government's fiscal strength. Moody's also considers that prospects for debt stabilization are highly susceptible to economic performance in 2021 and 2022. There is also a risk that market sentiment towards The Bahamas does not improve enough to enable the government to finance its larger funding needs through 2021/22. While the favorable maturity profile mitigates some risks related to government liquidity (the next global bond is not due until 2024), limited market access could create external liquidity pressures. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS Environmental risks are a key concern for The Bahamas because it is located in the so-called Hurricane Belt (as reflected by the occurrence of Hurricane Dorian in September 2019). In addition, The Bahamas is exposed to rising sea levels, with 72% of its land being low lying or within five meters above sea level. Social risks are material for The Bahamas. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak to be a social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety. Additionally, while unemployment rates have remained high over the past decade, in particular for the younger segment of the labor force, labor market conditions had improved in recent years. The coronavirus crisis is likely to weigh significantly on employment levels in the short term. This will increase pressure on government finances, which will also be stretched out in response to the coronavirus outbreak. Governance risks are not a source of constraint to The Bahamas' credit profile. The country showcases a stable political environment, underpinned by a general consensus around key policy issues. The government's small size may limit policy implementation, which Moody's has taken into consideration in the country's institutions and governance strength assessment. Moreover, improvements in the fiscal policy framework in recent years have improved the government's credibility in responding to shocks. FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS Given the negative outlook, a rating upgrade is unlikely. The outlook could be changed to stable if the government were to successfully finance its larger borrowing requirements for fiscal 2020/21 and a recovery in the tourism supports growth and budgetary revenues. Additionally, the implementation of fiscal and economic policies that support a fiscal consolidation process and the stabilization of the debt trend over the coming years would be credit positive. Negative rating pressure would emerge should the government face heightened liquidity pressures that limited its ability to fund its larger fiscal deficits in 2020/21 and 2021/22 and caused a more material decline in foreign exchange reserves. Finally, if prospects for debt trend stabilization beyond 2020/21 were to weaken, due to poor economic growth or limited fiscal consolidation, additional credit-negative pressures would emerge. GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 33,333 (2019 Estimate) (also known as Per Capita Income) Real GDP growth (% change): 0.6% (2019 Estimate) (also known as GDP Growth) Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 2.3% (2019 Actual) Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -1.7% (2019 Estimate) (also known as Fiscal Balance) Current Account Balance/GDP: 1.2% (2019 Estimate) (also known as External Balance) External debt/GDP: 24.4% (2019 Estimate) Economic resiliency: baa3 Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983. On June 22, 2020, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Bahamas, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have materially decreased. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially decreased. The issuer has become more susceptible to event risks. The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Ratings Methodology published in November 2019. The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable. =========== B R A Z I L =========== BRAZIL: Economy Forecasted to Contract More Amid Pandemic --------------------------------------------------------- Richard Mann at Rio Times Online reports that projections for the Brazilian economy are becoming increasingly bleak as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its projection for the country's GDP (Gross Domestic Product) drop in 2020 from 5.3 to 9.1 percent, according to Rio Times Online. As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on May 8, 2020, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating at 'BB-' and has revised the Rating Outlook to Negative. The Outlook revision to Negative reflects the deterioration of Brazil's economic and fiscal outlook, and downside risks to both given renewed political uncertainty, including tensions between the executive and congress, and uncertainty over the duration and intensity of the coronavirus pandemic. On April 10, 2020, the TCR-LA reported that S&P Global Ratings revised on April 6, 2020, its outlook on its long-term ratings on Brazil to stable from positive. At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings. S&P also affirmed its 'brAAA' national scale rating and its transfer and convertibility assessment of 'BB+'. The outlook on the national scale rating remains stable. INTERCEMENT BRASIL: S&P Lowers ICR to 'CC' on Exchange Offer ------------------------------------------------------------ S&P Global Ratings, on June 25, 2020, lowered its global scale issuer credit and issue-level ratings on Brazil-based cement company InterCement Brasil S.A. (InterCement) to 'CC' from 'CCC', and its national scale rating on the company to 'brCC' from 'brB-'. At the same time, S&P assigned a 'CCC+' issue-level rating and '2' recovery rating to InterCement Financial Operations B.V.'s proposed new secured notes. The downgrade follows InterCement's launch of an exchange offer to holders of its senior unsecured notes due 2024 for new senior secured notes. The exchange offer includes a haircut of 15%, while the new notes would mature in 2027 and have interest PIK option until January 2022. S&P said, "In our view, this implies that investors will receive less value than the promise of the original securities, despite the higher interest on the notes. Also, we view the offer as distressed because without considering the exchange, we assess there would be a possibility of a conventional default in the near term, given our expectation that InterCement will burn cash over the next few quarters. As a result, if the exchange is completed as announced, we would lower the issuer credit ratings to 'SD' and the issue-level rating on the 2024 unsecured notes to 'D'." The 'CCC+' new issue-level rating on the company's proposed senior secured notes is one notch above S&P's issuer credit rating after the completion of the exchange offer. The one-notch difference reflects the seniority of the new notes over the company's unsecured debt, with a collateral package that includes some of InterCement's facilities. InterCement Financial Operations, a wholly-owned finance subsidiary of InterCement Participacoes S.A., is the issuer of the existing and the proposed new notes. InterCement Participacoes is the ultimate parent and driver of the ratings on InterCement. These two companies fully and unconditionally guarantee InterCement Financial Operations' notes. INTERCEMENT PARTICIPACOES: Fitch Cuts IDR to C on Exchange Offer ---------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has downgraded InterCement Participacoes S.A.'s Long-Term Local and Foreign Currency Issuer Default Ratings to 'C' from 'CCC-.' InterCement Financial Operations BV's 2024 notes were downgraded to 'C'/'RR4' from 'CCC-'/'RR4'. Concurrently, with these actions, Fitch has assigned a Long-Term Rating of 'CCC+ (EXP)'/'RR4' to InterCement Financial Operations' proposed senior secured 2027 notes. The downgrades follow InterCement's announcement of a proposed tender offer to exchange its unsecured notes due in 2024 for new secured notes due in 2027, which Fitch considers to be a distressed debt exchange as per its DDE criteria. In Fitch's opinion, the offering imposes to bondholders of existing 2024 notes a material reduction in terms, as the exchange will eliminate restrictive covenants and certain events of default included in the existing 2024 notes indenture for the bonds that are not tendered and implies a reduction in principal of 15%. The proposed amendments require 85% participation of the outstanding principal amount of the existing notes. The exchange offering also proposes an option for the company to pay-in-kind (PIK) up to 100% of the interest payments on the 18 months following the closing of the exchange offer. Under the proposed offer, interest would accrue at a rate of 8.5% for relevant periods if InterCement opts for the PIK option. If the proposed tender offer is successfully completed, the IDR will be downgraded to Restricted Default. Subsequently, Fitch will re-rate InterCement's IDRs to a level that is consistent with the company's post-exchange capital structure and risk profile, which would likely be at the same level of the proposed issuance. Upon completion, any remaining existing bonds will likely be upgraded to levels below the new notes due to lower levels of credit protection and priority. KEY RATING DRIVERS Exchange Offer Qualifies as DDE: The exchange offer, if agreed, will constitute a DDE under Fitch's criteria, as existing bondholders face a material reduction in terms and conditions. Fitch believes this exchange is a way for InterCement to preserve its liquidity for working capital and to service its upcoming interest payments in the context of weak prospects for construction activity due to the global pandemic as well as Argentina's macroeconomic prospects. It is also a way for the company to avoid a maturity wall in 2024. According to Fitch's DDE criteria, a material reduction in terms has occurred when an exchange proposes a change from a cash pay basis to PIK, discount basis or other form of noncash payment, as well as when exchange offers that are accepted if the tendering bondholder also consents to indenture amendments that materially impair the position of holders that do not tender. The existing USD551 million of 5.75% senior unsecured notes due 2024 will be exchanged for new 7.0% senior secured notes due 2027 secured by a first lien on eight cement plants in Brazil with an appraisal value of approximately USD650 million. The pricing of the new notes implies a reduction in principal of 15% to tendering noteholders. The exchange offer is subject to 85% participation in terms of the aggregate outstanding principal amount. Argentina to Remain Challenging: InterCement's Argentine subsidiary, which is currently the company's primary cash flow generator, is experiencing plummeting cement demand in 2020. Loma Negra C.I.A.S.A. generated EUR178 million of reported EBITDA in 2019. This figure benefited from an official exchange rate whose volatility has been reduced due to strict capital controls, and would likely be lower should the country lift controls. Cement demand in the country contracted 32% during the five months of the year. Brazil's Recovery Halts: Output in Brazil's cement market fell to 52 million tons from a high of 72 million tons during the economic downturn of 2015-2018. A rebound in consumption to 54 million tons of cement in this market in 2019 will likely be erased in 2020 as cement sales decline. The country's GDP is now projected to decline 6% in 2020, which will inevitably affect construction activity. Weakness in cement demand is likely to accelerate during second-half 2020 and extend into 2021. More intense competition could put pressure on pricing as capacity utilization rates decline throughout the industry. Recent Debt Refinancing: The company refinanced approximately EUR800 million of amortizing bank and debenture debt, which represented almost 50% of its EUR1.7 billion debt outstanding as of March 2020, with the issuance of local debentures. These new debentures have a final debt maturity of 2027 and begin to amortize in June 2023 and are secured by a first lien on the shares of Loma Negra held by InterCement. Holders of the new debentures have the right to shorten the maturity of these instruments to May 2024 should InterCement be unable to extend the maturity its unsecured 2024 notes. Debenture Issuance Lowered FX Exposure: FX mismatch was lowered after the recent debenture issuance, as 38% of total debt should be either U.S dollar or Euro denominated compared with 69% prior to the debenture issuance. This is an important reduction as the company does not generate hard currency revenue. InterCement mainly relies on its pricing strategy to offset U.S. dollar cost inflation and revenue weakness resulting from currency depreciation. Solid Business in Depressed Markets: InterCement is the second-largest cement producer in Brazil, which is one of the world's largest cement markets, and the leading cement producer in Argentina with close to 50% market share. The company also operates in Mozambique, where it is the largest producer with a 50% market share, as well as in Egypt, South Africa and Paraguay. InterCement's businesses in Argentina and Paraguay are operated through its 51%-owned subsidiary Loma Negra. InterCement's sales are relatively balanced among Brazil (30%), Argentina and Paraguay (41%) and its African subsidiaries. DERIVATION SUMMARY InterCement's 'C' rating reflects the company's announcement to launch a proposed tender offer to exchange its unsecured notes due in 2024 for new secured notes due in 2027, which Fitch considers to be a distressed debt exchange. The announcement occurs in the context of substantial weakening of EBITDA expectations resulting from depressed cement demand in Argentina and significantly weaker sales volumes for the rest of InterCement's markets as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. Prior expectations of a recovery in Brazil, which is the company's main market in terms of volume and which has seen stagnant cement consumption since 2016, have been set back due to economic recession resulting from the coronavirus. InterCement's consolidated net debt to EBITDA is projected to rise in 2020 to 7.7x, was 5.9x in 2019, which is consistent with leverage of ratings in the 'CCC' category. KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch's Key Assumptions Within its Rating Case for the Issuer Include: -- Brazilian volumes decline by high-single digits in 2020 and increase by low-single digits in 2021 and 2022; -- Argentine volumes decline approximately 25% in 2020 and rebound to low-double digit growth in 2021 and in 2022; -- Operating EBITDA of about EUR180 million in 2020 and EUR200 million in 2021; -- Capex levels around EUR80 million in 2020 and EUR120 million in 2021; RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade: -- The completion of the proposed exchange offer will lead to a downgrade of the Long-Term IDRs to 'RD'. The IDRs would be subsequently upgraded to a rating level reflecting the post-DDE credit profile, which would likely be at the same level of the proposed issuance at 'CCC+'. Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade: -- An uncured payment default on any material financial obligation would lead to a downgrade of the IDRs to 'RD'. BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE Weak Liquidity: InterCement refinanced EUR806 million of bank and debenture debt at the beginning of June. The refinancing reduced the company's debt maturities including revolving credit lines to EUR149 million in 2020 and EUR126 million in 2021 from EUR305 million in 2020 and EUR331 million in 2021 before the refinancing. This compares with EUR167 million of cash and short-term investments as of March 31, 2020. In addition to funding debt maturities, Fitch estimates that InterCement will generate negative FCF of approximately EUR50 million in 2020 and EUR40 million in 2021. This estimate assumes that the company utilizes the PIK under the proposed issuance for the next 18 months. It also reflects capex to complete the expansion of Loma Negra's L'Amali plant of EUR40 million remaining in 2020 and EUR20 million in 2021 and other capex is significantly curtailed. The negative FCF is expected to be funded primarily through local bank debt. REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. ESG CONSIDERATIONS InterCement has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance Structure due to limited board independence through ownership by key shareholder, Mover Participacoes S.A. For all other factors, unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. InterCement Financial Operations BV - Senior unsecured; LT C; Downgrade - Senior secured; LT CCC+(EXP); Expected Rating InterCement Brasil S.A. - LT IDR C; Downgrade - LC LT IDR C; Downgrade - Natl LT C(bra); Downgrade InterCement Participacoes S.A. - LT IDR C; Downgrade - LC LT IDR C; Downgrade - Natl LT C(bra); Downgrade =================================== D O M I N I C A N R E P U B L I C =================================== DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Central Bank Projects Rapid Economic Recovery ----------------------------------------------------------------- The Dominican Today reports that Hector Valdez Albizu, the current Governor of the Central Bank of the Dominican Republic, has stated that the low inflationary pressure presented by the Dominican Republic gives enough space to the Central Bank to maintain the expansionary measures before COVID-19, without jeopardizing its mission to preserve price stability. Albizu has disclosed that the dynamism of private credit, motivated by the expansion measures implemented by that entity, as well as the improvement of remittances and foreign investment, will contribute to the economy. The Dominican Republic will return in the short term to the levels of expansion registered prior to the pandemic, according to Albizu, Dominican Today relays. This would allow the country to close 2020 around neutral growth (0.0%), as estimated by Albizu in the analysis "The Dominican Economy vs. Covid-19: challenges and prospects," the report notes. Moreover, the official has indicated that the depreciation of the Dominican peso so far this year is 9.0%, much lower than that experienced by the main currencies of the Latin American region, such as Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia, as well like emerging economies, the report cites. However, it considered that the variation in the exchange rate in this pandemic has remained relatively controlled, being well below that observed in the great episodes of instability that the country has experienced, the report relays. Indeed, Albizu pointed out that, in addition to the decrease in the usual amount of foreign currency, more than 300 companies and institutions have increased their foreign currency purchases by more than 50% compared to what was observed in the same period of 2019. Therefore, the central bank has had to inject US$3.3 billion into the system since the beginning of 2020, the report says. "This reaction of the BCRD has allowed maintaining the relative stability of the exchange rate and preventing sudden movements of the currency from affecting the proper functioning of the economy," Albizu said, the report notes. Dominican Today cites that before the appearance of the virus in the country, the economy was growing at its potential level of 5.0% in the first two months before falling to -9.4% in March and -29.8% in April. About Dominican Republic The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. The Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America reported in April 2019 that the Dominican Today related that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues, growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international commitments." An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of participants in the electricity sector to establish financial viability for the system. Standard & Poor's credit rating for Dominican Republic stands at BB- with negative outlook (April 2020). Moody's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last set at Ba3 with stable outlook (July 2017). Fitch's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last reported at BB- with negative outlook (May 8, 2020). DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Has Opportunity to Attract Foreign Investment ----------------------------------------------------------------- Dominican Today reports that the Dominican Republic has the opportunity to attract foreign investment from multinationals that will seek to have their factories close to the United States due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This was stated by Ana Arias Urones, Senior Specialist of the Trade and Investment Division of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), who stressed that in the next six months, the country will have the opportunity to take advantage of post-covid-19 recovery scenarios to position itself as a foreign investment destination, according to Dominican Today reports. Urones explained that although this global crisis affects supply and demand, internal trade and investment, new opportunities open up and companies are re-evaluating their global presence reinforcing the trend of new locations, the report notes. She specified that after the health crisis 52% of new investment projects scheduled for Europe and Canada seeking location are suspended and 45% continue. And those who plan to relocate look for destinations much closer to the United States market, because it is the largest consumer, the report relates. Arias Urones explained that among the economic activities that they plan to relocate are storage and production or manufacturing, the report notes. While among the fastest-growing are: life sciences/biotechnology, logistics, and advanced manufacturing. Ms. Urones expressed that these multinationals are in the country to take advantage of the opportunities since investors seek to produce quality goods and services; connectivity or access to markets; competitive prices and security or a good business climate, the report relates. Urones also said that the country has good trade agreements with other countries and enjoys legal security and political stability, the report notes. Urones, in her speech, said that, however, there are gaps that must be overcome in the short term to take advantage of these investments, the report relates. Among these gaps, she cited more effort to support exporters and promote local products and goods; take advantage of trade agreements; Reduce bureaucracy in procedures and achieve greater coordination between institutions, the report discloses. The executive expressed herself in those terms during the video conference "Opportunities for Post Covid Exporters" from the Investment and Export Center of the Dominican Republic and the Dominican Embassy in the United States, the report notes. On the other hand, Paolo Giordano, chief economist of the IDB's Integration and Trade Sector, expressed that exporters in the agricultural sector will have to invest in quality and focus on more demanding markets since, in this new normality the prices of agricultural products are depressed, that will affect the margins of exports, the report adds. About Dominican Republic The Dominican Republic is a Caribbean nation that shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti to the west. Capital city Santo Domingo has Spanish landmarks like the Gothic Catedral Primada de America dating back 5 centuries in its Zona Colonial district. The Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America reported in April 2019 that the Dominican Today related that Juan Del Rosario of the UASD Economic Faculty cited a current economic slowdown for the Dominican Republic and cautioned that if the trend continues, growth would reach only 4% by 2023. Mr. Del Rosario said that if that happens, "we'll face difficulties in meeting international commitments." An ongoing concern in the Dominican Republic is the inability of participants in the electricity sector to establish financial viability for the system. Standard & Poor's credit rating for Dominican Republic stands at BB- with negative outlook (April 2020). Moody's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last set at Ba3 with stable outlook (July 2017). Fitch's credit rating for Dominican Republic was last reported at BB- with negative outlook (May 8, 2020). ============= J A M A I C A ============= DIGICEL GROUP: Fitch Lowers LT Issuer Default Rating to D --------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has revised and assigned new ratings to the entire Digicel corporate family following the conclusion of the group's distressed debt exchange. Specifically, Fitch has assigned a new Long-Term Foreign Currency Issuer Default Rating to Digicel Group 0.5 Limited (DGL0.5) of 'CCC', downgraded Digicel Limited to 'RD' from 'C' and simultaneously upgraded to 'CCC' from 'RD', and affirmed Digicel International Finance Limited at 'CCC+'. Fitch has downgraded the LT FC IDRs of Digicel Group Limited (DGL3), Digicel Group Two Limited (DGL2), and Digicel Group One Limited (DGL1) to 'D' and withdrawn the ratings, from 'C', 'RD', and 'RD', respectively. Fitch is simultaneously withdrawing its ratings on those entities' unsecured instruments, including the non-tendered notes from the two debt exchanges. Fitch expects these entities to remain dormant and hold the potential to be liquidated in the future. For Digicel Limited, an 'RD' will be recorded to denote the completion of the company's DDE and the new rating will then apply. The other entities involved in the DDE were previously at 'RD', following the expiration of their interest grace periods. The ratings for the surviving entities in the corporate structure reflect the improvements Digicel's financial structure and flexibility following the reorganization and restructuring. The consolidated credit profile is consistent with a 'CCC' category issuer, as leverage ratios remain high and economic conditions in the company's main operating environments remain quite challenged. The company's debt restructuring provides the company additional time to turn around operating performance and for economic performance in its markets to stabilize or improve. Over the last several years, the company's revenues have been under pressure primarily due to currency devaluation in its markets, and declining mobile voice revenues have outweighed gains elsewhere. The company's business profile is relatively strong; however, the group's willingness to execute multiple debt restructurings in a short time frame will weigh on the company's ratings. RATING WITHDRAWALS The ratings were withdrawn with the following reason: Bankruptcy of The Rated Entity, Debt Restructuring or Issue/Tranche Default. KEY RATING DRIVERS Financial Flexibility Increases: The restructuring extends Digicel's amortization profile and reduces annual interest expense. Digicel does not face a significant amortization until the DL2023 notes, which bondholders did not tender, mature in March 2023. The company has limited ability to raise additional debt; therefore, the PIK interest is essential as the company tries to stabilize operating performance in the near term. Fitch had previously forecasted revenues to stabilize in FY2021, but is now expecting a 5%-8% drop as the impact of the coronavirus lockdowns hits Digicel's markets. Refinancing risk for the DL 2023 notes is expected to remain elevated over the foreseeable future, absent revenue stabilization within the next 2 years. Financial Structure Improves: Digicel's debt restructuring cut gross debt by approximately $1.5 billion dollars, from $7.0 billion to $5.4 billion. As a result, Fitch-adjusted Total Debt / EBITDA should decline from 7.5x to 5.9x on a pro forma basis. Fitch does not expect Digicel to deleverage significantly, as adjusted EBITDA generation remains pressured in the company's markets, due to currency depreciation and the secular decline in voice revenues. Fitch forecasts that consolidated leverage will stabilize around 6.1x-6.3x, as PIK interest accrues amid operational cash flow stagnation. ESG - Aggressive Corporate Governance: Digicel's decision to restructure debt for the second time in as many years remains a constraint on the ratings. The group has a concentrated ownership and control structure along with a complex group structure that weakens both Digicel's corporate governance and the group's consolidated credit profile. While the group's financial reporting is appropriate and consistent with peers, management's financial strategy of carrying high leverage and a history of high shareholder distributions further weigh on the company's overall corporate governance assessment. The shareholder made a small equity contribution of $50m as part of this DDE. Distressed Debt Exchange: Digicel's debt restructuring counts as a DDE, as the exchange offers (principal reductions, extension of maturity, indenture amendments, etc.) constituted a material reduction in terms and the exchange was necessary to avoid a default. Per Fitch's criteria, following the completion of a DDE, an issuer's IDR will be lowered to 'RD' before being re-rated. DGL1 and DGL2 were already at RD due to the expiration of interest grace periods, and the ratings are being lowered to 'D'. DGL3 is also being lowered to 'D'. DL will be lowered to 'RD' to record the completion of the DDE and re-rated 'CCC'. Weak Cash Flow Expected: Local currency revenues have shown signs of growth; however, the decline in mobile voice combined with currency depreciation in the company's markets have outweighed underlying gains in other segments. The majority of Digicel's mobile customers are pre-paid consumers, who are generally more price sensitive. Tourism, which Fitch expects to be depressed in 2020, also accounts for a significant proportion of the economic activity in Digicel's markets. The company is diversifying into higher growth B2B solutions and home entertainment (B2C broadband and TV); however, these segments account for only 20% of revenues. Group Structure Drives Ratings: Following the reorganization, DGL0.5 will be the parent in the corporate structure. Fitch expects leverage of approximately 6.1x-6.3x, 5.4x-5.6x, and 4.1x-4.3x at DGL0.5, DL, and DIFL (excluding the DL guarantee), respectively. The company has twice restructured debt above the DIFL level, supporting a higher rating for DIFL, despite the likelihood that this is the only level at which the company can issue debt. Fitch forecasts recovery rates commensurate with 'RR1' for DIFL instruments, including the secured notes, the newly assigned unsecured notes, and the newly assigned junior subordinated notes; however, Digicel's debt instruments are capped at 'RR4', resulting in ratings equal to the IDR. Fitch also forecasts recovery rates commensurate with 'RR5' for the DL unsecured instruments, resulting in downward notching from the IDR to 'CCC-'. The newly assigned DGL0.5 secured notes benefit from the residual value of the Pacific operations, resulting in an 'RR4' and an equalization with the IDR at 'CCC'. The newly assigned unsecured and convertible DGL0.5 notes do not have material recovery prospects and have been notched down to 'CC'. Fitch's Country-Specific Treatment of Recovery Ratings Criteria constrains the upward notching of instruments, based on concerns about the rule of law, insolvency regimes and creditor protections in a given jurisdiction. Weak Parent, Weak Linkages: Fitch has de-emphasized the importance of strength of the linkages within the group, in light of Digicel's legal manuevering, aggressive corporate governance, and the uncertainties surrounding cross-border insolvency in the countries of operation. While strong operational ties bind the group, the debt restructuring has caused Fitch to de-emphasize their importance relative to the lack of legal guarantees between DIFL and the ultimate parent company. Particularly given the company's willingness to restructure debt at multiple levels, Fitch discounts the guarantee of the DL debt by DIFL. Strong Business Profile: Digicel's geographic diversification and competitive position share are strong for the rating category. The company is active in 31 markets across the Caribbean and Pacific; with leading mobile shares in most. Many of these are duopolies, and Fitch does not believe the risk of a new entrant is high, due to the small size of each market. The group's $2.3 billion in capital expenditures since FY2015 should ensure network competitiveness. Under these circumstances, Fitch expects the company's competitive position to remain stable over the medium term. DERIVATION SUMMARY Digicel Group Limited's solid business profile, with leading mobile market shares in its well-diversified operational geographies supported by network competitiveness, is stronger than Oi S.A.'s (CCC+), which has also restructured its debt in the last two years. Like Oi, Digicel has very limited financial flexibility and a weak financial structure, despite the recent debt restructurings. Digicel's financial profile is materially weaker than its regional diversified telecom peers in the speculative-grade rating categories, including Millicom International Cellular S.A. (BB+/Stable), and Cable & Wireless Communications Limited (BB-/Stable). Digicel's business profile is relatively less diversified on a service basis, given its reliance on mobile and position in generally poorer countries with significant exchange rate volatility. Parent/subsidiary linkages are weak; therefore, the weaker parent has been notched down from the consolidated credit profile. The aggressive corporate governance that has resulted in two debt restructurings in the last two years is a negative for the company. Under its "Country-Specific Treatment of Recovery Ratings Criteria", Fitch caps Digicel's debt instruments at 'RR4'; therefore, the instruments' ratings are capped at the issuers' IDRs. KEY ASSUMPTIONS Revenue declines of 6%-8% in 2020, followed by revenue growth of 1%-2%. EBITDA margins of ~40%, below recent margins in the 41%-42% range. Working capital deterioration in FY2021, as customers lengthen payment cycle. Average capex of $300 million-$325 million or ~15% of revenues. Company elects to utilize PIK interest on those instruments. No dividend payments to controlling shareholders. RATING SENSITIVITIES Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade: -- A positive rating action is unlikely in the near term, absent significant asset sales and/or additional equity. Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade: -- Deterioration of operating performance in key markets, such that leverage continues to increases towards 7.0x once again. BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE Restructuring Improves Liquidity: The restructuring improves Digicel's financial flexibility and liquidity position. Fitch expects the company to save $100 million-$125 million of cash interest expense per year, from a pre-restructuring amount of around $450 million-$500 million per year. By pushing back the maturity dates, the restructuring also affords Digicel additional time to turn around its operating performance. Fitch does not expect organic deleveraging, as cash flow will be constrained by tough operating conditions in the company's markets, currency devaluation, and capex requirements of around $300 million. SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS - Adjusted operating leases consistent with new criteria. - Adjustments to working capital and operating expenses. REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. ESG CONSIDERATIONS Digicel Group Limited: Group Structure: '5', Governance Structure: '5', Exposure to Environmental Impacts: '4', Financial Transparency: '4'. Fitch has revised governance scores for Digicel Group Limited and its subsidiaries. While Digicel previously scored a '4' on Governance Structure and Group Structure, Fitch has revised these scores to '5', in light of the group's aggressive debt restructurings. Digicel scores a '4' on Financial Transparency. Fitch has concerns about board independence from the controlling shareholder, the willingness and ability of the company to potentially move assets, and the group's financial transparency. Digicel Group Limited and its subsidiaries score a '4' on Exposure to Environmental Impacts, due to their operations in a hurricane-prone region. Except for the matters discussed, the highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score of '3' - ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity(ies). Digicel Group Two Limited - LT IDR D; Downgrade - LT IDR WD; Withdrawn - Senior unsecured; LT C; Affirmed Digicel International Finance Limited (DIFL) - LT IDR CCC+; Affirmed - Senior secured; LT CCC+; Affirmed - Junior subordinated; LT CCC+; New Rating - Senior unsecured; LT CCC+; New Rating Digicel Group Limited - LT IDR D; Downgrade - LT IDR WD; Withdrawn - Senior unsecured LT C; Affirmed - Subordinated; LT C; Affirmed Digicel Group One Limited - LT IDR D; Downgrade - LT IDR WD; Withdrawn - Senior unsecured; LT C; Affirmed - Senior unsecured; LT WD; Withdrawn Digicel Group 0.5 Limited - LT IDR CCC; New Rating - Senior unsecured; LT CC; New Rating - Senior secured; LT CCC; New Rating Digicel Limited LT IDR RD; Downgrade - LT IDR CCC; Upgrade - Senior unsecured; LT CCC-; Upgrade JAMAICA: Payouts Made to Small Businesses Under CARE Program ------------------------------------------------------------ RJR News reports that payouts have been made to nearly 600 small businesses which applied for grants under the Government's COVID-19 Allocation of Resources for Employees (CARE) program. According to an Auditor General's report on the program, as at June 1, a total of 580 eligible small business grant applications were batched and transferred for payment having met the eligibility and banking validation requirements, the report notes. All payments were approved by the Ministry of Finance And 579 applicants were paid and one was still being processed for payment, according to RJR News. The grants were for businesses that file income tax and payroll returns indicating that they have at least one employee, the report relays. The size of the small business grant was $100,000, the report adds. As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America, S&P Global Ratings revised on April 16, 2020 its outlook on Jamaica to negative from stable. At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'B+' long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings, its 'B' short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on the country, and its 'BB-' transfer and convertibility assessment. The TCR-LA also reported that Fitch Ratings, in April 2020, revised Jamaica's Outlook to Stable from Positive. The Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating is affirmed at B+. The Outlook change reflects the shock to Jamaica from the coronavirus pandemic, which is expected to lead to a sharp contraction in its main sources of foreign currency revenues: tourism, remittances and alumina exports. =========== M E X I C O =========== ALPHA HOLDING: S&P Affirms 'B-' LongTerm ICR, Outlook Stable ------------------------------------------------------------ S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B-' long-term global scale issuer credit rating (ICR) on Mexico-based consumer lender Alpha Holding S.A. de C.V. S&P removed the abovementioned ratings from CreditWatch with positive implications, where it placed them on March 27, 2020. The outlook is stable. Additionally, S&P affirmed its 'B+' issue-level rating on the company's existing senior notes. All of its operating subsidiaries guarantee the notes; therefore, S&P rated the outstanding issuances at the same level of its consolidated operating entities' creditworthiness. S&P also removed the debt ratings from CreditWatch developing where it placed them on March 27, 2020. Finally, S&P's group credit profile (GCP) remains unchanged at 'b+'. The rating action follows Alpha Holding's capital injection for up to $100 million led by SoftBank Latin America Fund (not rated), which resulted in a project RAC ratio of 6% for the next two years. S&P said, "This enhanced our capital and earnings assessment by two categories to moderate from very weak. The company will use the proceeds to fund portfolio growth and daily operations across Mexico and Colombia. Additionally, the rating action incorporates our revision of the company's risk position assessment to moderate from adequate, due to a holistic analysis and the company's capital metrics, widening NPLs and losses above regional peers, and the existing operational risk of working with government agencies in Mexico. Finally, we're now reflecting the lower anchor for nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) that are mainly exposed to lending in Mexico--we revised this anchor on March 27, 2020, to 'bb' from 'bb+'. This revision reflected weaker economic conditions in the country due to the pronounced hit to the economy following the combined shocks of COVID-19--in Mexico itself and in the U.S.--and lower global oil prices. We note that we didn't take a negative rating action on Alpha Holding after the anchor revision because we were analyzing the impact of the capital injection on the firm." S&P said, "Finally, the ratings include our consolidated analysis of Alpha Holding's growing business operations that mostly involve payroll lending to public-sector employees and pensioners. We base our funding and liquidity assessment on Alpha Holding's diversified funding base in line with the Mexican NBFI industry average, and its sufficient liquidity, even in our downside scenario, to cover financial obligations and daily operations." Alpha Holding's ratings reflect two notches of subordination from its consolidated operating entities' creditworthiness. The rated entity is a non-operating holding company (NOHC), which depends on its operating units' upstream cash flow to service debt at the holding level. S&P said, "Therefore, we apply the standard notching for holding companies of financial services groups. However, we don't envision a default will take place in the next year because its cash flow is sufficient to cover financial obligations, both in our base and stress-case liquidity analysis." S&P said, "The 'B+' rating on the outstanding notes is at the same level as Alpha Holding's GCP because the notes are unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed by all operating subsidiaries and, consequently, the debt ratings represents our view of the consolidated group's creditworthiness. Moreover, the rating indicates that the notes rank equally in right of payment with all of the company's existing and future senior unsecured issuances. Both issuances have a cross-currency swap on the coupon payments and a participating swap for the principal. For the next 12 months, we expect Alpha Holding's priority debt (secured debt) to represent slightly less than 5% of total adjusted assets, with unencumbered assets covering more than 1x of the company's rated unsecured debt." =============== X X X X X X X X =============== BOND PRICING: For the Week June 22 to June 26, 2020 --------------------------------------------------- Issuer Name Cpn Price Maturity Country Curr ----------- --- ----- -------- ------- --- Provincia de Rio Negro 7.8 70.4 12/7/2025 AR USD KrisEnergy Ltd 4.0 40.4 6/9/2022 SG SGD Noble Holding Internat 5.3 60.5 3/15/2042 KY USD AES Tiete Energia SA 6.8 1.2 4/15/2024 BR BRL MIE Holdings Corp 7.5 56.2 4/25/2019 HK USD Enel Americas SA 5.8 32.7 6/15/2022 CL CLP Empresa Provincial de 12.5 0.0 1/29/2020 AR USD Odebrecht Finance Ltd 7.0 17.0 4/21/2020 KY USD SACI Falabella 2.3 50.6 7/15/2020 CL CLP Sylph Ltd 2.4 65.1 9/25/2036 KY USD Odebrecht Finance Ltd 7.0 16.5 4/21/2020 KY USD Noble Holding Internat 6.2 62.2 8/1/2040 KY USD Corp Universidad de Co 5.9 64.2 11/10/2021 CL CLP City of Cordoba Argent 7.9 73.1 9/29/2024 AR USD Argentine Republic Gov 8.3 72.9 12/31/2033 AR USD Province of Santa Fe 6.9 74.7 11/1/2027 AR USD Embotelladora Andina S 3.5 37.9 8/16/2020 CL CLP USJ Acucar e Alcool SA 9.9 74.0 11/9/2019 BR USD Empresa de Transporte 4.3 30.9 7/15/2020 CL CLP Odebrecht Finance Ltd 6.0 16.4 4/5/2023 KY USD Cia Latinoamericana de 9.5 73.9 7/20/2023 AR USD Automotores Gildemeist 8.3 54.2 5/24/2021 CL USD Province of Santa Fe 6.9 75.2 11/1/2027 AR USD Odebrecht Finance Ltd 7.0 16.5 4/21/2020 KY USD Province of Santa Fe 6.9 74.7 11/1/2027 AR USD Automotores Gildemeist 8.3 54.2 5/24/2021 CL USD Odebrecht Finance Ltd 6.0 16.4 4/5/2023 KY USD Cia Energetica de Pern 6.2 1.1 1/15/2022 BR BRL Yida China Holdings Lt 7.0 74.3 4/19/2020 CN USD Noble Holding Internat 6.1 62.0 3/1/2041 KY USD USJ Acucar e Alcool SA 9.9 74.0 11/9/2019 BR USD YPF SA 16.5 67.3 5/9/2022 AR ARS Provincia del Chubut A 4.5 2208 3/30/2021 AR USD Avadel Finance Cayman 4.5 55.0 2/1/2023 US USD Argentina Bonar Bonds 7.6 74.4 4/18/2037 AR USD Automotores Gildemeist 6.8 54.9 1/15/2023 CL USD Province of Santa Fe 6.9 75.2 11/1/2027 AR USD Embotelladora Andina S 3.5 37.9 8/16/2020 CL CLP USJ Acucar e Alcool SA 9.9 74.0 11/9/2019 BR USD Argentine Republic Gov 0.5 27.6 12/31/2038 AR JPY Plaza SA 3.5 38.3 8/15/2020 CL CLP Banco Security SA 3.0 5.6 7/1/2019 CL CLP Argentina Bonar Bonds 5.8 75.2 4/18/2025 AR USD Argentine Republic Gov 4.3 70.0 12/31/2033 AR JPY Automotores Gildemeist 6.8 54.9 1/15/2023 CL USD Cia Latinoamericana de 9.5 74.3 7/20/2023 AR USD Provincia de Rio Negro 7.8 70.3 12/7/2025 AR USD Argentine Republic Gov 6.9 75.2 1/11/2048 AR USD Polarcus Ltd 5.6 71.8 7/1/2022 AE USD MIE Holdings Corp 7.5 56.4 4/25/2019 HK USD Banco Macro SA 17.5 65.2 5/8/2022 AR ARS Provincia de Rio Negro 7.8 70.3 12/7/2025 AR USD Odebrecht Finance Ltd 6.0 16.4 4/5/2023 KY USD Banco Security SA 3.0 27.4 6/1/2021 CL CLP Provincia de Buenos Ai 7.9 75.3 6/15/2027 AR USD Argentine Republic Gov 8.3 72.9 12/31/2033 AR USD MIE Holdings Corp 7.5 56.2 4/25/2019 HK USD China Huiyuan Juice Gr 6.5 46.6 8/16/2020 CN USD Argentine Republic Gov 8.3 74.5 12/31/2033 AR USD YPF SA 16.5 67.3 5/9/2022 AR ARS Banco Macro SA 17.5 65.2 5/8/2022 AR ARS Provincia de Cordoba 7.1 72.7 8/1/2027 AR USD Argentine Republic Gov 6.3 74.1 11/9/2047 AR EUR Provincia del Chaco Ar 4.0 0.0 12/4/2026 AR USD Fospar S/A 6.5 1.2 5/15/2026 BR BRL Empresa Electrica de l 2.5 63.8 5/15/2021 CL CLP Sociedad Austral de El 3.0 17.0 9/20/2019 CL CLP Provincia del Chaco Ar 9.4 74.8 8/18/2024 AR USD Argentine Republic Gov 7.1 75.7 6/28/2117 AR USD Provincia de Cordoba 7.1 74.7 8/1/2027 AR USD Metrogas SA/Chile 6.0 41.6 8/1/2024 CL CLP Esval SA 3.5 49.9 2/15/2026 CL CLP LATAM: IMF Forecasts 9.4% Economic Contraction for 2020 ------------------------------------------------------- RJR News reports that the International Monetary Fund is forecasting a nearly double-digit recession for Latin America and the Caribbean in 2020 - a contraction of 9.4% - as the region is dragged down by its two largest economies, which continue to suffer from the coronavirus. The updated outlook for the region, released, is down sharply from the 5.2% recession forecast in April, which already would have been the worst performance since at least 1980, according to RJR News. The multilateral lending agency said in Latin America, most countries are still struggling to contain infections, the report notes. ********* S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman, Editors. Copyright 2020. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746. This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of the publishers. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year, delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information, contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000. . * * * End of Transmission * * *