/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA

/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCRLA_Public/170208.mbx T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R L A T I N A M E R I C A Wednesday, February 8, 2017, Vol. 18, No. 028 Headlines A R G E N T I N A ARGENTINE PROVINCE: Moody's Withdraws B3/Baa3 Rating on Notes CAR SECURITY: Moody's Withdraws B3/Baa2 Corporate Family Rating B R A Z I L BRAZIL: Gov't. Deal With Rio de Janeiro Won't Solve Debt Crisis BRAZIL: Plans Changes to Bankruptcy Law to Help Recovery STONEWAY CAPITAL: Fitch to Rate $500MM Senior Secured Notes 'B' VALE OVERSEAS: Moody's B3 Rating Unaffected by Unsec. Notes Add-On C A Y M A N I S L A N D S ADAM SMITH: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report ALIZES INVESTMENTS: Shareholders Receive Wind-Up Report APQ ALEXANDRIA: Members Receive Wind-Up Report BRAX EQUITY: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report CELESTIAL FINANCE: Members Receive Wind-Up Report CHOL INTERNATIONAL: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report CONVERGENX LTD: Shareholders Receive Wind-Up Report CRYSTAL MARINE: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report CZECH & SLOVAK: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report INTERCONTINENTAL COMPONENT: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report ORMARYD INSURANCE: Members Receive Wind-Up Report PELICANCROSS HOLDINGS: Shareholders' Final Meeting Set for Feb. 3 PRYSMA INVEST: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report ROUNDABOUT HOLDINGS: Members Receive Wind-Up Report SEASONAL COMMODITY: Shareholders Receive Wind-Up Report STARBOARD VALUE: Shareholders Receive Wind-Up Report STEERSMEN II: Shareholders Receive Wind-Up Report VINCI ALLOCATION: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report VINCI ARGENTINA: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report VINCI CAPITAL: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report VINCI INTERNATIONAL: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report J A M A I C A SAGICOR FINANCIAL: Fitch Affirms 'B' IDR, Outlook Stable P U E R T O R I C O TERRASSA CONCRETE: Unsecured Creditors to Get 2% Under Plan UNIVERSAL INDUSTRIAL: Court Conditionally OKs Disclosures UNIVERSAL INDUSTRIAL: Unsecureds to Get 2% Under Exit Plan U R U G U A Y URUGUAY: Former President Mujica Warns of Trade Wars V E N E Z U E L A PDVSA: Braces for Oil Production Drop as Default Looms Large VENEZUELA: Credit Dashboard Shows Default Risk Falls Below 50% - - - - - ================= A R G E N T I N A ================= ARGENTINE PROVINCE: Moody's Withdraws B3/Baa3 Rating on Notes ------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Latin America Agente de Calificacion de Riesgo has withdrawn the following ratings assigned to the Argentine Province of Mendoza: Baa3.ar, Issuer rating, Argentina national scale in local currency; Baa3.ar, Issuer rating, Argentina national scale, foreign currency; Debt ratings in both Global Scale and Argentina national scale, respectively, local currency of the following instruments; B3/Baa3.ar, Mendoza's Secured Argentine Bonds; B3/Baa3.ar, Mendoza's Senior Secured Bonds; (P)B3/Baa3.ar, Treasury Note Programs; B3/Baa3.ar, Medium Term Notes; (P)B3/Baa3.ar, MTN Programs; In addition, Moody's withdraws the Baa3.ar national scale rating assigned to Mendoza's 5.5% Global Bonds. RATINGS RATIONALE Moody's has withdrawn the ratings for its own business reasons. CAR SECURITY: Moody's Withdraws B3/Baa2 Corporate Family Rating ---------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Latin America Agente de Calificacion de Riesgo S.A. has withdrawn Car Security S.A.'s B3/Baa2.ar corporate family rating for its own business reasons. The following ratings were withdrawn: -- Corporate Family Rating: B3/Baa2.ar RATINGS RATIONALE Headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina, Car Security markets Stolen Vehicle Recovery System (SVRS) devices that use radio signals to monitor vehicles and offers a tracking service for stolen vehicles that serves more than 600,000 consumers. Car security offers equipment and fleet telematics for cars, motorcycles and trucks, as well as personalized assistance inside the vehicles. The company also offers monitoring systems for homes and tracking and monitoring systems for pets and cargo. Annual revenues and EBITDA in fiscal year 2015 were ARS645 million ($70 million) and ARS137 million ($15 million), respectively. Car Security has been Lo Jack Corporation's (not rated) local licensee in Argentina since June 1998. As a difference from its licensor Lo Jack Corp, Car Security not only provides the equipment, but also offers the tracking service. =========== B R A Z I L =========== BRAZIL: Gov't. Deal With Rio de Janeiro Won't Solve Debt Crisis --------------------------------------------------------------- Rachel Gamarski and Samy Adghirni at Bloomberg News report that Brazilian politicians inflated growth estimates to facilitate an agreement between the federal government and Rio de Janeiro to resolve the state's financial crisis, raising doubts over the viability of the deal. The projections, even if proven true, would still leave the state running a deficit by 2021, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly. The deal was crucial as it sets a precedent for other states in financial difficulties, according to Bloomberg News. Bloomberg News notes Rio Governor Luiz Fernando Pezao heralded the "good news" of a deal with the federal government that would allow the state to suspend its debt payments to the national treasury for three years in exchange for cuts in spending and tax hikes. The plan still requires approval from Congress and Rio's state assembly. But politicians, eager to close a deal overruled technocrats to inflate growth estimates, according to the two people familiar with the calculations as well as internal documents reviewed by Bloomberg. If Rio fails to hit the agreed target, the federal government will be left to pick up the tab and further increase an already rising stock of public debt, said one of the two people, Bloomberg News discloses. Even in the best-case scenario, Rio de Janeiro will start running a deficit again in 2021, when it would resume paying debt back to the federal government, Bloomberg News notes. The state is currently so broke that it has been unable to pay many of its public sector workers and pensioners. Brazil's finance ministry denied that political interest prevailed over the technical rigor that was used during the negotiation, according to an e-mailed statement from its press department, Bloomberg News relays. Rio's revenue estimates were sent by the state finance ministry office, and the state government has no interest in inflating its income numbers, the statement read. Under the terms of the deal, the federal government estimates the state's gross domestic product will grow 2.5 percent over the next few years, while its revenues will increase 8 percent, Bloomberg News discloses. This is based on an assumption of inflation of 4.5 percent and a rise in the state's tax take of 3.5 percent per year. The two people told Bloomberg that these projections were unrealistic and that the state will need federal assistance if its fiscal conditions do not improve at the anticipated rate. Internal studies show Brazil growing at 2.5 percent over the next few years, with the expectation that some individual states will recover even more gradually, Bloomberg News relays. Data from Rio's finance secretariat shows tax revenue has been falling since 2013. Rio is far from the only state facing financial difficulties two years into Brazil's worst recession in over a century, Bloomberg News notes. Across the country state governments have been cutting expenditures. The outlook for state and municipal governments this year remains negative even if tax revenue grows as the economy emerges from recession, Paco Debonnaire, an analyst for Moody's Investors Service said in a Dec. 5 report. Efforts to curb spending will continue to face resistance, he added. Other States In 2017, nearly half of Brazil's 27 regional governments expect to post a primary budget deficit, which excludes debt interest payments, according to O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper, Bloomberg News relays. In late December, President Michel Temer vetoed part of a bill providing relief for the nation's debt-ridden states, after lawmakers stripped it of virtually all austerity obligations, Bloomberg News notes. The agreement with Rio was hailed as a way out of the impasse. Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles even described it as a model for other states to follow, Bloomberg News notes. Shortly after announcing the deal, Meirelles met representatives from Rio Grande do Sul to discuss its unsustainable debt problems, Bloomberg News relays. The state declared a state of financial calamity in November. As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Nov. 15, 2016, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB'/ Negative Outlook. Brazil's senior unsecured Foreign- and Local- Currency bonds are also affirmed at 'BB'. The Country Ceiling is affirmed at 'BB+' and the Short-Term Foreign and Local-Currency IDRs at 'B'. BRAZIL: Plans Changes to Bankruptcy Law to Help Recovery -------------------------------------------------------- Alonso Soto and Marcela Ayres at Reuters report that Brazil plans to overhaul its bankruptcy law to help troubled companies survive a two-year recession that has led a record number of them to suspend debt payments, a senior member of the government's economic team said. President Michel Temer also plans to announce new measures next week to increase productivity and bolster the construction sector, said the official, who requested anonymity to speak freely, according to Reuters. The measures could also include creating a new income bracket for applicants of the government-backed home-ownership program known as "Minha Casa Minha Vida," the report notes. Hamstrung by a crippling fiscal crisis, the President Temer administration has relied on various measures to reduce the debt burden of consumers and companies struggling with country's deepest recession on record, the report relays. Those measures, as well as other major reforms to the labor and pension legislations, could bolster potential growth to up to 4 percent a year from the current range of 2 percent to 2.5 percent, the official said, the report notes. Reuters says that a key legislative change involves relaxing the bankruptcy law to allow debt-laden companies to sell healthy assets without transferring part of the credit risk connected to them. "The changes would give guarantees and viability to the recovery of these companies by, for example, facilitating the sale of assets," said the official, the report notes. Bankers and lawyers expect bankruptcies to set a record in 2017, with tight credit and the lingering recession forcing a growing number of large Brazilian companies to seek protection from creditors. A new bankruptcy law is part of the government's push to improve the business climate. Other efforts include slashing red tape and simplifying the intricate tax system. To increase his dwindling popularity, President Temer in December unveiled measures to reduce credit card interest rates and allow workers to draw on severance fund accounts, known as FGTS, Reuters notes. Since taking office in May after the removal of his leftist predecessor, Dilma Rousseff, on mismanagement charges, President Temer has struggled to revive an economy that not long ago was an emerging-market superstar. The Brazilian economy is expected to grow a meager 0.5 percent in 2017 after shrinking more than 7 percent in the previous two years, according to a weekly central bank poll, the report adds. As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Nov. 15, 2016, Fitch Ratings has affirmed Brazil's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB'/ Negative Outlook. Brazil's senior unsecured Foreign- and Local- Currency bonds are also affirmed at 'BB'. The Country Ceiling is affirmed at 'BB+' and the Short-Term Foreign and Local-Currency IDRs at 'B'. STONEWAY CAPITAL: Fitch to Rate $500MM Senior Secured Notes 'B' --------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings expects to rate Stoneway Capital Corporation's $500 million senior secured notes 'B(EXP)' with a Stable Rating Outlook, subject to receipt of final documentation. Proceeds from the notes, together with $136.5 million in equity to be funded at closing, are expected to be used to pay engineering, procurement, construction and development costs of four power plants, land purchase and rental costs and provide the initial funding of the Interest During Construction (IDC) Account. A portion of $115 million out of the total equity is expected to be financed by the Sponsor through a borrowing under a credit facility from Siemens Financial Services, Inc. The expected rating reflects Stoneway's power purchase agreement (PPA) with sole off-taker CAMMESA, moderate operating risks established through fixed-priced operation and maintenance (O&M) and overhaul costs with an experienced counterparty, and the project's pre-completion status mitigated through a fixed-price Engineering, Procurement, Construction (EPC) agreement signed with Siemens Energy Inc. The project benefits from an adequate debt structure, with fixed interest rate, adequate covenants and reserves. While DSCR results are consistent with a higher rating category, the rating is ultimately capped by Fitch's view on the credit quality of the revenue stream derived through payments by CAMMESA as sole off- taker and Argentina's 'B' country ceiling. KEY RATING DRIVERS Low Complexity of Works; Fixed Price, Date Certain EPC Agreement [Completion Risk: Midrange]: The greenfield project benefits from individual full EPC turnkey- lump sum contracts with a strong-counterparty (Siemens) and other contractors on a joint and several basis. The simple-cycle technology nature of the oil & gas thermal plants is considered of low complexity and scale, with technology widely established. Contract terms and scope are adequate and encompass all needed activities, delivery date of Dec. 1, 2017 is challenging but achievable, liquidated damages (LDs) provisions and delivery dates are in line with PPA obligations, and funded contingencies are approximately 5% of EPC costs. Delay risks which lead to PPA termination (+180 days delayed) are viewed as very unlikely due to low complexity of works, contractor expertise, and adequate LDs. Experienced Operator and Defined Overhaul Costs [Operations Risk: Midrange]: All four plants benefit from O&M agreements and Long-Term Services Agreements (LTSA) with Siemens S.A. for the entire tenor of the debt. Plants benefit from a defined overhaul routine with fixed prices for up to 60,000 hours (Las Palmas/San Pedro plants) and 75,000 hours (Lujan/Matheu plants), which is consistent with the high dispatch scenario expected. Weaknesses of contract structure are the exposure to foreign exchange (FX) risk, as a major part of the O&M fixed fee is denominated in Argentine pesos (ARS), and LTSA for Las Palmas/San Pedro plants are defined in Swedish kronas (SEK), and expected to be hedged only after commercial operations date (COD). Nevertheless, project can withstand a very high increase on the overhaul routines in SEK of 171.6%, or an appreciation of ARS to the order of 400%. Supply Risk Embedded in the Offtake Agreement [Supply Risk: Midrange]: Both oil and gas will be fully supplied by CAMMESA, project's sole off-taker. As per the PPA, in case of any supply failure the project is not obligated to dispatch and still receives its fixed capacity payment. Weak Counterparty with Sufficient Capacity Payments [Revenue Risk: Weaker]: The project's sole off-taker is CAMMESA, the wholesale power market administrator in Argentina. CAMMESA is considered a counterparty of weak financial profile and is dependent on sovereign subsidies to honor commitments. Most of the project's revenues will come from fixed capacity payments that cover fixed costs and debt service. Project also benefits from a one year tail on its PPA. Adequate Debt Structure with Overhaul Provisions [Debt Structure: Stronger]: The fixed-rate debt is fully amortizing and senior ranking, and benefits from a six-month Debt Service Reserve Account (DSRA), which will be funded with cash generation, and a 1.40x DSCR distribution test. The debt structure includes an O&M Reserve Account, which accumulates overhaul provisions whenever project is dispatched and will be used to make scheduled major maintenance payments. Additional debt can only be issued with a rating confirmation after giving pro forma effect to such new debt. Low Leverage with Strong Credit Metrics: The project presents very low leverage, with the rating case, which considers a higher dispatch scenario, yielding Debt/EBITDA of 3.5x in 2018, the first full year of operations, and deleveraging to 2.6x in 2021. Rating case minimum and average DSCRs of 1.17x and 1.58x are consistent with higher ratings. In addition, the project also presents very strong breakevens: (i) 171.6% increase in overhaul linked to SEK, (ii) 375% increase on O&M costs linked to ARS and (iii) 370% increase on SG&A costs. Rating Constrained at Country Ceiling: Revenues are indexed to USD but received in ARS. The project is therefore exposed to transfer and convertibility risks. The rating is ultimately constrained by Argentina's 'B' country ceiling. Peers Analysis: The transaction's rating is capped by the credit quality of the off-taker and the country ceiling of Argentina. There are no other transactions in Fitch's Latin American portfolio with a similar profile. Criteria Variation: For this transaction, a criteria variation to the 'Rating Criteria for Infrastructure and Project Finance,' dated July 8, 2016, is being applied with respect to the section 'Contractor Rating and Credit Enhancement' in 'Appendix 1 - Completion Risk in Project Finance.' The criteria does not specify which Issuer Default Rating (IDR) should be used for the contractor rating in the case of important subsidiaries of strong global or regional multinational companies, with a solid reputation and widely recognized expertise in a certain sector or industry. The variation considers that when a regional or country subsidiary of a multinational corporation that meets the aforementioned conditions and is part of a strategic business line of such multinational company is a contractual counterparty of an EPC agreement, the IDR that will be used for the purposes of the completion risk analysis will be the one of the ultimate parent company. Siemens Energy Inc., counterparty of the EPC agreement, is the U.S.-based subsidiary of Siemens AG which consolidates the power and gas business unit for Siemens A.G. ('A'/Outlook Stable) for the Americas. The 'Americas' segment represents +30% of total Siemens A.G. consolidated revenues. The Power and Gas business line, of which Siemens Energy Inc. ultimately reports to, is the largest revenue contributor, with over EUR16 billion in sales in 2016. For purposes of the contractor IDR under the 'Contractor Rating and Credit Enhancement' section of the 'Rating Criteria for Infrastructure and Project Finance', this analysis considers Siemens A.G.'s 'A'/Outlook Stable IDR. RATING SENSITIVITIES Positive -- An improvement in the credit quality of CAMMESA as sole off- taker to the revenue stream combined with an upgrade of Argentina's country ceiling could result in a positive rating action. Negative -- Deterioration in the credit quality of CAMMESA as sole off- taker to the revenue stream and/or a downgrade of Argentina's country ceiling could result in negative rating action; -- Significant delays in the completion schedule which could ultimately lead to the possibility of PPA cancellation could lead to a negative rating action; -- Delays from CAMMESA on the PPA payments leading to a deterioration of the project's liquidity could lead to a negative rating action; -- Although unlikely in the near term, significant appreciation of the argentine peso, leading to an increased share of contracted O&M expenses as a percentage of revenues, and consequently, deteriorating DSCRs The notes will be senior and secured by a first-priority security interest on all of existing and future tangible and intangible assets, including but not limited to all physical assets of the project, all inventory, machinery and equipment and all accounts, real estate rights under land agreements. TRANSACTION SUMMARY Stoneway is a private company constituted with the purpose of constructing, owning and operating four simple-cycle power- generating plants with a total installed capacity of 686.5 MW, through two indirect subsidiaries, Araucaria Energy S.A. (Araucaria) and SPI Energy S.A. (SPI). Stoneway thermal plants will be dual-fired and will utilize diesel & heavy fuel oil or natural gas to provide electricity to the wholesale electricity market in Argentina. Each of these plants benefits from 10-year PPAs with CAMMESA the Argentinean entity in charge of the management of the wholesale market and the dispatch of electricity into the country's power grid. PPAs are USD-denominated and have a fixed price based on contracted capacity and a variable charge; the majority of project's revenues are anticipated to be derived from fixed capacity payments. Under the terms of the PPAs, plants are required to achieve COD by Dec. 1, 2017. If COD is not attained within 180 days of Dec. 1, 2017, the PPAs shall be automatically terminated without the need of any notice whatsoever and without the right of any claim of any kind. Maximum delay penalties as per PPA are fully covered by a performance bond placed by the sponsor at auction bid. Two out of the four plants will be constructed by a consortium comprised of Siemens Energy, Inc., Siemens S.A. and affiliates of Duro Felguera S.A.; the other two plants will constructed by a consortium comprised of Siemens Energy, Inc., Siemens S.A., SoEnergy International Inc. and SoEnergy Argentina S.A. Each plant has individual EPCs on a turn-key basis. Stoneway has also engaged individual O&M Contracts with Siemens S.A. to perform the services necessary for the proper O&M of the plants, and long-term maintenance contracts with Siemens Energy, Inc. and Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery AB, for the annual inspections and overhaul routines of the engines. All contracts cover the tenor of the debt. Financial Analysis Fitch's base case incorporates COD on Dec. 1, 2017 and a 50% dispatch scenario throughout the life of debt. O&M and LTSA costs were considered as per the signed agreements, with the inclusion of the 'Program Initiation' and 'Mobilization' upfront fees (USD 14.07 million), funded through the permitted working capital facility of the project. O&M fixed prices denominated in ARS were escalated 5.95% in 2018 and 5% onwards. An excess fuel consumption penalty in excess of PPA heat rate of 2.5% and an unscheduled maintenance downtime penalty of 5% due to unavailability were considered. A 5% stress was also applied over administrative and insurance costs. Fitch's base case scenario resulted in average and minimum DSCRs of 1.56x and 1.31x, respectively. Debt/EBITDA is 3.3x in 2018, first year of full operations, and 2.5x in 2021. Fitch's rating case also incorporates COD on Dec. 1, 2017 and a 67% dispatch scenario throughout the life of debt. O&M and LTSA costs were considered as per the signed agreements, with the inclusion of the 'Program Initiation' and 'Mobilization' upfront fees (USD 14.07 million), funded through the permitted working capital facility of the project. O&M fixed prices denominated in ARS were escalated 5.95% in 2018 and 5% onwards, and overhaul routines denominated in SEK were stressed in 10%. An excess fuel consumption penalty in excess of PPA heat rate of 5% and an unscheduled maintenance downtime penalty of 7.5% due to unavailability were considered. A 10% stress was also applied over administrative and insurance costs. Fitch's rating case scenario resulted in average and minimum DSCRs of 1.58x and 1.17x, respectively. Debt/EBITDA is 3.5x in 2018, first year of full operations, and 2.6x in 2021. Additional scenarios were run to measure the cash flow's sensitivity to FX exposure and operational expenditures. A break even analysis indicates the structure is able to survive to (i) a 171.6% increase in overhaul routines denominated in SEK, (ii) a 375% increase on O&M fixed prices denominated in ARS and (iii) a 370% increase over administrative and insurance costs. A delay in COD scenario up to June 2018 yields DSCRs above 1.0x. VALE OVERSEAS: Moody's B3 Rating Unaffected by Unsec. Notes Add-On ------------------------------------------------------------------ Moody's Investors Service comments that Vale Overseas Limited's Ba3 senior unsecured foreign currency rating and stable outlook remain unchanged following the company's announcement that it plans to issue an add-on to the 10-year USD 1 billion senior unsecured notes issued by Vale Overseas Limited in August 2016 and fully and unconditionally guaranteed by Vale S.A. The proposed add-on to the USD 1 billion notes issued in August 2016 is part of Vale's liability management strategy and proceeds from the transaction will be mainly used for the refinancing of existing debt obligations, including the notes (EUR 750 million) due March 2018. The transaction will further lengthen the company's amortization schedule, but will have no impact on leverage. Vale has taken a number of initiatives targeting leverage reduction in 2016. The company raised about USD 1.32 billion with the gold streaming, sale of vessels and minority participations. For 2017, Vale expects to conclude the fertilizer assets sale -- which totals USD1.25 billion in cash and USD 1.25 billion in shares to be issued by Mosaic - and also conclude the coal transaction in Mozambique, for which Vale will receive, from Mitsui & Co Ltd (A3 negative), USD 768 million for the divestiture of part of its share in the Moatize coal mine and the Nacala Logistics Corridor, and up to USD 2.7 billion from the project finance. On a pro-forma basis, including all transactions, Moody's estimates that Vale's leverage (measured by total debt to EBITDA, including Moody's standard adjustments) would decline to 3.4x from 4x at the end of September 2016. Moody's expects Vale's leverage to decline further in the next 12- 18 months considering prices at Moody's sensitivity medium-term ranges ($45-65/ton), as the company continues to undertake cost saving measures and reduces its annual capex to around USD 4.5 billion from 2017 onwards, which will reduce debt requirements and lead to positive free cash flow generation. Vale's Ba3 rating continues to be supported by the company's diversified product base and competitive cost position, and substantive portfolio of long lived assets. While Vale has diversified its geographic footprint through various acquisitions in Canada, Australia and elsewhere, the dominant revenue, earnings and cash flow driver continues to be its Brazilian-based iron ore operations and its major position in the seaborne iron ore markets. The rating acknowledges Vale's more focused and disciplined approach to project development, capital allocation, resizing of its asset portfolio to strategically important business segments, divestiture of non-strategic assets, and focus on cost reduction, which better positions Vale to withstand volatility in the prices for its major products over the next twelve to eighteen months. Constraining the ratings are the challenging fundamentals for iron ore, a key earning driver, and base metals prices, and Moody's expectations that prices will remain at lower levels for a prolonged period, as a consequence of the slowdown in China's economic growth and steel demand, which the World Steel Association (WSA) forecasts to decline to 652 mm tons in 2017, a 8% decline over 2014 levels, bringing heightened uncertainty over demand for iron ore and base metals in the next few years. Lower prices relative to 2011-2014 levels will prevent a faster recovery in credit metrics for Vale and the company will likely continue to pursue asset divestitures and other liquidity alternatives to strengthen its capital structure and reduce debt levels at a steady pace. Vale's ratings also incorporate the long term overhang represented by the uncertainties regarding the level of support Vale will provide to Samarco and the impact it would have on the company's liquidity and debt profile. The stable outlook reflects the improvement in Vale's credit metrics throughout 2016, supported by the initiatives taken by the company to improve its liquidity and expand production volumes at lower costs, and Vale's financial discipline regarding capex and dividend payments, which enhance its operating resilience. The improvement in credit metrics also reflect the recovery observed in iron ore prices, base metals and coal relative to the levels evidenced in 2015 and early 2016. From 2017 onwards, Moody's expects Vale's metrics to benefit from the additional sales volume coming from the S11D project, with total iron ore production capacity of 90 million tons per year at a lower cost base after full ramp-up by 2020. Headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Vale is one of the largest mining enterprises globally, with substantive positions in iron ore and nickel, and participation in copper, coal and fertilizers, as well as supplemental positions in energy and steel production. Vale is the largest global supplier of iron ore, with approximately 345 million metric tons (t) of production in the twelve months ended September 2016 (excluding its share of Samarco), and the largest global producer of nickel, with around 310,700 t produced during the same period. Vale's principal mining operations are located in Brazil, Canada, Australia, Indonesia, and Mozambique. In addition, the company is active in exploration activities in nine countries. For the twelve months through September 30, 2016, Vale had net operating revenues of USD25.6 billion. ========================== C A Y M A N I S L A N D S ========================== ADAM SMITH: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report ----------------------------------------------- The shareholder of Adam Smith Investments received on Jan. 27, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Commerce Corporate Services Limited P.O. Box 694 Grand Cayman Cayman Islands Telephone: 949 8666 Facsimile: 949 0626 ALIZES INVESTMENTS: Shareholders Receive Wind-Up Report ------------------------------------------------------- The shareholders of Alizes Investments received on Jan. 27, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Commerce Corporate Services Limited P.O. Box 694 Grand Cayman Cayman Islands Telephone: 949 8666 Facsimile: 949 0626 APQ ALEXANDRIA: Members Receive Wind-Up Report ---------------------------------------------- The members of APQ Alexandria Fund Limited received on Jan. 12, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Mourant Ozannes Attorneys-at-law Bart Turtelboom Corey Stokes 94 Solaris Avenue Camana Bay P.O. Box 1348 Grand Cayman KY1-1108 Cayman Islands Telephone: (345) 814-9277 Facsimile: (345) 949-4647 BRAX EQUITY: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report ------------------------------------------------ The shareholder of Brax Equity Fund SPC received on Jan. 11, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: First Management Ltd c/o Daniella Skotnicki Ogier, Attorneys 89 Nexus Way, Camana Bay Grand Cayman KY1-9009 Cayman Islands Telephone: +1 (345) 949 9876 Facsimile: +1 (345) 949 9877 CELESTIAL FINANCE: Members Receive Wind-Up Report ------------------------------------------------- The members of Celestial Finance Limited received on Jan. 19, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Kent Limited c/o Michelle R. Bodden-Moxam St. George's International Limited The Grand Pavilion Commercial Centre Oleander Way, 802 West Bay Road, P.O. Box 30691 Grand Cayman KY1-1203 Cayman Islands Telephone: 345-946-6145 Facsimile: 345-946-6146 CHOL INTERNATIONAL: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report ------------------------------------------------------- The shareholder of Chol International Inc. received on Jan. 27, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Commerce Corporate Services Limited P.O. Box 694 Grand Cayman Cayman Islands Telephone: 949 8666 Facsimile: 949 0626 CONVERGENX LTD: Shareholders Receive Wind-Up Report --------------------------------------------------- The shareholders of Convergenx Ltd received on Jan. 12, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Mourant Ozannes Erie Limited c/o Corey Stokes 94 Solaris Avenue Camana Bay P.O. Box 1348 Grand Cayman KY1-1108 Cayman Islands Telephone: (345) 814 9277 Facsimile: (345) 949 4647 CRYSTAL MARINE: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report --------------------------------------------------- The shareholder of Crystal Marine Two Ltd received on Jan. 20, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: William E. Craver III 2702 Ion Avenue, Box 754 Sullivan's Island, SC 29482 USA Telephone: (843) 577-7557 Facsimile: (843) 577-0811 CZECH & SLOVAK: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report --------------------------------------------------- The shareholder of Czech & Slovak Investment Corporation Inc. received on Jan. 9, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Lee Michael De'ath c/o Maples and Calder Attorneys-at-law P.O. Box 309, Ugland House Grand Cayman KY1-1104 Cayman Islands INTERCONTINENTAL COMPONENT: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report --------------------------------------------------------------- The shareholder of Intercontinental Component Supply International (Cayman) Ltd received on Jan. 27, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Commerce Corporate Services Limited P.O. Box 694 Grand Cayman Cayman Islands Telephone: 949 8666 Facsimile: 949 0626 ORMARYD INSURANCE: Members Receive Wind-Up Report ------------------------------------------------- The members of Ormaryd Insurance Company SPC received on Jan. 11, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: William Alt Strategic Risk Solutions (Cayman) Ltd. Caribbean Plaza, 2nd Floor North Building, 878 West Bay Road P.O. Box 1159, Grand Cayman KY1-1102 Cayman Islands PELICANCROSS HOLDINGS: Shareholders' Final Meeting Set for Feb. 3 ----------------------------------------------------------------- The shareholders of Pelicancross Holdings Limited will hold their final meeting on Feb. 3, 2017, at 10:00 a.m., to receive the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Dr. Rolf Schmid c/o Dorothee Langemann Limmatquai 94, Zurich, Switzerland CH-8021 Telephone: 41 44 711 71 71 Facsimile: 41 44 711 71 11 PRYSMA INVEST: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report -------------------------------------------------- The shareholder of Prysma Invest SPC received on Jan. 18, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Elian Fiduciary Services (Cayman) Limited c/o Daniella Skotnicki Telephone: +1 (345) 949 9876 Facsimile: +1 (345) 949 9877 ROUNDABOUT HOLDINGS: Members Receive Wind-Up Report --------------------------------------------------- The members of Roundabout Holdings received on Jan. 19, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Brott Limited c/o Michelle R. Bodden-Moxam St. George's International Limited The Grand Pavilion Commercial Centre Oleander Way, 802 West Bay Road P.O. Box 30691 Grand Cayman KY1-1203 Cayman Islands Telephone: (345) 946-6145 Facsimile: (345) 946-6146 SEASONAL COMMODITY: Shareholders Receive Wind-Up Report ------------------------------------------------------- The shareholders of Seasonal Commodity Spreads Portfolio (Master) Ltd. received on Jan. 12, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: J.P. Morgan IN-DX LLC c/o David Miller 383 Madison Avenue, 5th Floor New York New York 10179 United States of America Telephone: +1 (212)622-5346 STARBOARD VALUE: Shareholders Receive Wind-Up Report ---------------------------------------------------- The shareholders of Starboard Value and Opportunity Overseas Fund II, Ltd received on Jan. 12, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Starboard Value LP Kenneth Marlin 777 Third Avenue, 18th Floor New York New York 10017 United States of America Telephone: +1 (212) 845 7906 e-mail: kmarlin@starboardvalue.com STEERSMEN II: Shareholders Receive Wind-Up Report ------------------------------------------------- The shareholders of Steersmen II Ltd. received on Jan. 11, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Ho, Hsin-Hui 9th Floor., No.3, Aly. 30, Ln. 78 Sec. 2, Fuxing S. Rd., Da'an Dist. Taipei City 106 Taiwan (R.O.C.) Telephone: (8978) 9200-3997 VINCI ALLOCATION: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report ----------------------------------------------------- The shareholder of Vinci Allocation International Fund received on Jan. 25, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Vinci Partners USA LLC c/o Tim Cone Ogier, Attorneys 89 Nexus Way, Camana Bay Grand Cayman KY1-9009 Cayman Islands Telephone: +1 (345) 949 9876 Facsimile: +1 (345) 949 9877 VINCI ARGENTINA: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report ---------------------------------------------------- The shareholder of Vinci Argentina Opportunity Fund received on Jan. 25, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Vinci Gestora De Recursos Ltda. c/o Tim Cone Telephone: +1 (345) 949 9876 Facsimile: +1 (345) 949 9877 VINCI CAPITAL: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report -------------------------------------------------- The shareholder of Vinci Capital Venture - I Fund Ltd. received on Jan. 25, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Vinci Partners USA LLC c/o Tim Cone Ogier, Attorneys 89 Nexus Way, Camana Bay Grand Cayman KY1-9009 Cayman Islands Telephone: +1 (345) 949 9876 Facsimile: +1 (345) 949 9877 VINCI INTERNATIONAL: Shareholder Receives Wind-Up Report -------------------------------------------------------- The shareholder of Vinci International Fund received on Jan. 25, 2017, the liquidator's report on the company's wind-up proceedings and property disposal. The company's liquidator is: Vinci Gestora De Recursos Ltda. c/o Tim Cone Telephone: +1 (345) 949 9876 Facsimile: +1 (345) 949 9877 ============= J A M A I C A ============= SAGICOR FINANCIAL: Fitch Affirms 'B' IDR, Outlook Stable -------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Sagicor Financial Corporation Limited's (SFCL) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B'. The Rating Outlook is Stable. The rating action follows Fitch's rating action on Feb. 2, 2017 on Jamaica's sovereign ratings, which included the affirmation of both Jamaica's sovereign rating and country ceiling at 'B' with a Stable Outlook. SFCL's ratings remain constrained by Fitch's view of the economic environments and the sovereign risks in both Jamaica and Barbados, while the agency maintains internal viewpoints to establish the rating of SFCL. The constraint is driven by the company's business concentration in Jamaica and Barbados as well as the company's high investment exposure to Barbados and Jamaica sovereign debt. KEY RATING DRIVERS Fitch's ratings reflect the challenging operating and economic environments of the main insurance subsidiaries domiciled in Barbados and Jamaica; very high capital exposure to below investment grade sovereign debt, partially offset by good operating company capitalization; and good and improving profitability. The ratings also consider the company's high financial leverage, the positive impact of the re-domiciliation of the SFCL holding company to Bermuda from Barbados, macroeconomic challenges associated with low interest rates, and asset liability duration mismatches in the operations of Barbados and Trinidad. The capitalization of SFCL's primary insurance subsidiaries is considered good. Management uses Canadian regulatory capital standards to help manage capital, and the consolidated MCCSR for SFCL is strong on an absolute basis at 279% as of Sept. 30, 2016. The quality of SFCL's insurance subsidiary capital is lower relative to Canadian or international peers given a higher Tier 2 capital component. Historically, MCCSR at the consolidated SFCL level has remained relatively stable above 220% since 2011. The company's minimum target MCCSR range at the consolidated level is 175%. Fitch considers SFCL's operating earnings to be good and improving with an upward trend over the last four years as the company's Jamaica, Barbados and Trinidad operations have been drivers of increased SFCL profitability. Losses due to currency retranslation and discontinued operations have historically been sources of volatility for the company. Operating earnings for the first three quarters 2016 were improved over same period prior year levels due to the absence of residual losses from Sagicor Europe, for which the company is no longer liable as of year-end 2015, as well as higher investment and fee income but partially offset by currency retranslation losses primarily from Jamaica. SFCL's Fitch financial leverage ratio (FLR) is high at 42% (adjusted to exclude non-controlling interests from capital) as of the third quarter 2016, albeit lower than 49% as of year-end 2015. The higher leverage in year-end 2015 and subsequent decline in 2016 was due to debt issued in 2016, which was used in part to fund debt that matured in 2016. Fitch expects run rate interest coverage to be around 4x in the medium term, which is satisfactory for the current rating. SFCL's investment portfolio is concentrated in the sovereign debt of its countries of operations, including Jamaica and Barbados, and as a result, the company has a significant concentration of below investment grade debt. The concentration of investment exposure to Barbados and Jamaica sovereign debt could result in sharp declines in capitalization ratios in adverse sovereign scenarios. Management has taken steps to actively reduce the company's exposure to these sovereign instruments, which declined from year-end 2015 to third quarter 2016. Where possible, particularly in the Trinidad and Tobago and U.S. segments, the company invests in investment grade and the investment portfolios are of high quality. Fitch views the re-domiciliation of the SFCL holding company to Bermuda from Barbados to be a credit positive for the company as the completion reduces the company's exposure to Barbados to solely its insurance operations in that country. SFCL is in the process of reorganizing its company structure to unstack the non- Barbados Caribbean operating subsidiaries, including those in Jamaica, such that they are no longer rolled up underneath the Barbados operating entity and will instead be held directly by SFCL. The company expects to be completed with the unstacking in the second quarter 2017. Fitch also views the unstacking positively and factors it into the current ratings, as it reduces organizational complexity and increases transparency of cash flows between regional entities and SFCL. As a result of the lack of availability of long duration assets in Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, the company has a duration mismatch, where liabilities are much longer than assets, which would be a concern in a prolonged low rate environment. Concern over this duration mismatch is somewhat mitigated by the company's use of a Canadian accounting framework that requires SFCL to set aside reserves to address the rollover risk associated with the duration mismatch. Customarily, holding company senior debt is notched down by one from the IDR at a Recovery Rating of 'RR5'. However, in the case of SFCL the IDR has been pulled down due to concerns over risks tied to the concentration of the company's operations and sovereign debt exposure of Barbados and Jamaica, including transfer and convertibility (T&C) risks. T&C exposure is somewhat mitigated by substantial assets held in U.S. external accounts that is a source of debt service in the event of adverse sovereign scenarios. While Fitch does not publish a sovereign rating or a country ceiling for Barbados, it does maintain internal viewpoints on the sovereign that were considered in SFCL's rating. Fitch's sovereign rating for Jamaica is 'B' (local and foreign currency IDR) and the country ceiling is 'B'. The current use of external accounts, which are largely owned by non-Barbados subsidiaries, reduces much but not all T&C exposure to Barbados, but T&C risks tied to Jamaica largely remain due to the potential move back of funds into the Jamaican subsidiaries and imposition of foreign exchange controls in an adverse Jamaica scenario. Thus, Jamaica's country ceiling of 'B' has been applied to SFC's ratings. SFCL is a Bermuda-based financial holding company and leading provider of insurance products and financial services in the Caribbean region. It also provides insurance products in the U.S. as well as banking and investment management services in Jamaica. Primary insurance subsidiaries and the corresponding regions for SFCL include Sagicor Group Jamaica Ltd. (Jamaica and Cayman Islands), Sagicor Life Inc. (Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago), and Sagicor Life USA (U.S.). Aside from these main subsidiaries and regions, the company also has insurance operations in many of the Eastern and Dutch Caribbean islands and select Latin American countries. RATING SENSITIVITIES Key rating triggers that could result in an upgrade of the ratings for Sagicor Financial Corporation include: -- A higher country ceiling of Jamaica, without any heightened sovereign concerns in Barbados or decline in performance of the company; -- A shift in country mix, including a significantly greater percentage of profitability and capital in countries with higher sovereign ratings and a decline in Barbados and Jamaica sovereign debt concentration; Key rating triggers that could result in a downgrade include: -- Perceived deterioration by Fitch in the economic environments of Jamaica or Barbados, including a downgrade in Sovereign rating of Jamaica; -- Deterioration in key financial metrics, including consolidated MCCSR falling below 180% and financial leverage exceeding 50% and ROE below 5% on a sustained basis. Fitch affirms the following ratings with a Stable Outlook: Sagicor Financial Corporation -- IDR at 'B'. Sagicor Finance (2015) Limited -- Senior unsecured notes at 'B/RR5'. ====================== P U E R T O R I C O ====================== TERRASSA CONCRETE: Unsecured Creditors to Get 2% Under Plan ----------------------------------------------------------- General unsecured creditors of Terrassa Concrete Industries Inc. will be paid 2% of their claims under the company's proposed Chapter 11 plan. Under the plan, Class 6 unsecured creditors will be paid an estimated 2% of their allowed claims or $100,000 over 60 months. These creditors assert a total of $5 million in claims. The plan will be funded from the revenues to be generated by the Terrassa, according to the company's disclosure statement filed on Jan. 31 with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Puerto Rico. A copy of the disclosure statement is available for free at: https://is.gd/a0zKmY Terrassa is represented by: Alexis Fuentes Hernandez, Esq. Fuentes Law Offices, LLC P.O. Box 9022726 San Juan, PR 00902-2726 Tel: (787) 722-5216 Fax: (787) 722-5206 Email: alex@fuentes-law.com About Terrassa Concrete Industries Terrassa Concrete Industries Inc., founded in 1983 by Jose Terrassa Rosario, is a Bayamon-based company that produces materials for the construction industry in Puerto Rico. The Debtor sought protection under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code (Bankr. D. P.R. Case No. 16-00182) on January 15, 2016. The petition was signed by Luis E. Terrassa Muniz, president. The case is assigned to Judge Enrique S. Lamoutte Inclan. At the time of the filing, the Debtor estimated assets of less than $50,000 and liabilities of $1 million to $10 million. UNIVERSAL INDUSTRIAL: Court Conditionally OKs Disclosures --------------------------------------------------------- The Hon. Edward A Godoy of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Puerto Rico has conditionally approved the disclosure statement filed by Universal Industrial Supplies Inc. on Jan. 31, 2017, referring to the Debtor's plan of reorganization. A hearing to consider the final approval of the Disclosure Statement and the confirmation of the Plan will be held on March 8, 2017, at 9:30 a.m. Any objection to the final approval of the Disclosure Statement and the confirmation of the Plan must be filed on or before 14 days prior to the date of the hearing on confirmation of the Plan. Acceptances or rejections of the Plan may be filed in writing by the holders of all claims on or before 14 days prior to the date of the hearing on confirmation of the Plan. The Debtor will file with the Court a statement setting forth compliance with each requirement in section 1129, the list of acceptances and rejections and the computation of the same, within seven working days before the hearing on confirmation. Headquartered in Ponce, Puerto Rico, Universal Industrial Supplies Inc. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection (Bankr. D.P.R. Case No. 15-09895) on Dec. 15, 2015. The petition was signed by Javier Bustillo Gonzalez, president. Judge Edward A. Godoy presides over the case. Modesto Bigas Mendez, Esq., at Bigas & Bigas serves as the Debtor's bankruptcy counsel. UNIVERSAL INDUSTRIAL: Unsecureds to Get 2% Under Exit Plan ---------------------------------------------------------- Unsecured creditors of Universal Industrial Supplies Inc. will be paid 2% of their claims, according to the company's plan to exit Chapter 11 protection. Under the restructuring plan, Class 3 general unsecured creditors, which assert more than $1.097 million in claims, will receive total payment of $23,718.67, including 3% interest per annum. These creditors will be paid $395.31 per month for 60 months. Class 3 is impaired under the plan. Payments will be funded from Universal Industrial's post-petition income from the operation of its business, according to the company's disclosure statement filed on Jan. 31 with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Puerto Rico. A copy of the disclosure statement is available for free at: https://is.gd/ykbm21 Universal Industrial is represented by: Modesto Bigas Mendez, Esq. P.O. Box 7462 Ponce, PR 00732 Tel: 787 844-1444 Fax: 787-842-4090 Email: modestobigas@yahoo.com About Universal Industrial Supplies Universal Industrial Supplies Inc., a company based in Ponce, Puerto Rico, is engaged in the sale of commercial and residential electrical supplies and electrical constriction materials. Universal Industrial Supplies Inc. sought protection under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code (Bankr. D. P.R. Case No. 15-09895) on December 15, 2015. The petition was signed by Javier Bustillo Gonzalez, president. The Debtor did not disclose its assets and liabilities at the time of the filing. ============= U R U G U A Y ============= URUGUAY: Former President Mujica Warns of Trade Wars ---------------------------------------------------- EFE News reports that former President Jose Mujica, who governed Uruguay from 2010 to 2015, warned Monday of the possibility of global trade wars erupting. "The Uruguayan government must deal with an international situation full of uncertainties, and we don't know whether this situation will lead to a trade war. Hopefully not, but it's a latent danger," Mr. Mujica said after a meeting of his Broad Front coalition, according to EFE News. ================= V E N E Z U E L A ================= PDVSA: Braces for Oil Production Drop as Default Looms Large ------------------------------------------------------------ Lucia Kassai at Bloomberg News report that the recent bump in oil prices isn't enough to help Petroleos de Venezuela SA as it faces its fourth consecutive year of declining production. The company's crude output is expected to fall this year as it failed to raise cash for investments and after Venezuela agreed to cut 95,000 barrels a day for six months as part of a deal struck by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other non-members to lift oil prices, analysts say, according to Bloomberg News. Even the recent increase in oil prices, following the cuts, aren't enough to ease the company's financial burden, Lucas Aristizabal, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, said, Bloomberg News notes. "Giving the tight liquidity, prices need to be significantly higher to revive output," Mr. Aristizabal said in a phone interview from New York. "At least more than $100 to start with," he said. Fitch reiterates that a default of PDVSA's debt is "probable" amid lower production associated with a moderate oil price increase and weak liquidity, Mr. Aristizabal added. Front-month Brent prices closed at $56.80 a barrel on the London- based ICE Futures Europe exchange, Bloomberg News relays. The last time Brent traded above the $100 a barrel mark was in August 2014. Prices have since declined on higher production from U.S. shale oil plays and with the recovery of oilfields in Libya, Bloomberg News notes. At a time that oil prices aren't high enough to generate adequate cash for PDVSA to pay off debts or invest in new rigs, the company also faces $10 billion in interest payments and principal maturities coming up this year with an estimated $2 billion, at most, in cash holdings to service the amount, Mr. Aristizabal said, the report relays. Venezuelan oil output is expected to fall by 200,000 barrels a day this year as PDVSA won't be able to realize projects announced last year, Luisa Palacios, a senior managing director at the Medley Global Advisors LLC, said in a phone interview from New York, Bloomberg News notes. "It's the result of a total collapse of the Venezuelan economy," Ms. Palacios, who is also a fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, said. "Production has been declining and I don't see that trend changing direction any time soon," she added. Bloomberg News relays that Venezuela crude output has fallen 16 percent since 2013, to 2.33 million barrels a day in September, the latest data made available by the energy ministry. Falling output should translate into reduced exports, notably to Caribbean countries that are part of the Petrocaribe program, where PDVSA sells oil under low-cost financing, Ms. Palacios said, Bloomberg News notes. She estimates Venezuelan exports of crude and fuel oil fell 10 percent last year, while shipments to China rose 11 percent. Exports to Petrocaribe countries declined 25 percent compared with a year earlier, Bloomberg News relays. Lower shipments to countries like the Dominican Republic have forced them to look elsewhere for supplies, Bloomberg News notes. Dominican Republic's Refineria Dominicana de Petroleo, known as Refidomsa, recently bought two cargoes of West Texas Intermediate from the U.S. and Jamaica's Petrojam Ltd. confirmed buying Mexican Maya and Isthmus oil for its refinery, Bloomberg News asdds. As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on Nov. 22, 2016, Moody's Investors Service assigned a Caa3 rating to Petroleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA)'s 8.5% $3.4 billion in senior secured notes due 2020. The outlook on the rating is negative. VENEZUELA: Credit Dashboard Shows Default Risk Falls Below 50% --------------------------------------------------------------- Nathan Crooks at Bloomberg News report that traders reduced their bets on a default of Venezuela's dollar debt over the next year amid a thin repayment schedule in the first quarter. The implied probability of non-payment over the next 12 months plunged to 44 percent in January from 59 percent at the end of December, according to credit-default swaps data compiled by Bloomberg. That's the first time the risk of default has been below 50 percent since September, according to Bloomberg News. The longer-term outlook is still a little murky, with the odds of a credit event over the next five years at 89 percent. January proved to be a volatile month in Venezuelan politics as President Nicolas Maduro reshuffled his cabinet, named and delegated wide-ranging powers to a new vice president, replaced the head of the central bank and appointed a new board at state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA, Bloomberg News notes. That happened as officials continue to face declining oil production, accelerating inflation and a currency still weakening on the black market, Bloomberg News relays. The real wild card for Venezuela's finances continues to be the price of crude, which stagnated in January even as OPEC cuts started to kick in, Bloomberg News notes. With large payments totaling nearly $3 billion coming due in April, nerves may start to fray again if a sustained increase in oil prices is not seen soon, Bloomberg News adds. As reported in the Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America on July 5, 2016, Fitch Ratings affirmed Venezuela's Long-Term Foreign-and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (LT FC/LC IDR) at 'CCC'. Fitch has also affirmed the sovereign's Short-Term Foreign Currency (ST FC) IDR at 'C' and country ceiling at 'CCC'. *********** Monday's edition of the TCR-LA delivers a list of indicative prices for bond issues that reportedly trade well below par. Prices are obtained by TCR-LA editors from a variety of outside sources during the prior week we think are reliable. Those sources may not, however, be complete or accurate. The Monday Bond Pricing table is compiled on the Friday prior to publication. Prices reported are not intended to reflect actual trades. Prices for actual trades are probably different. Our objective is to share information, not make markets in publicly traded securities. Nothing in the TCR-LA constitutes an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security of any kind. It is likely that some entity affiliated with a TCR-LA editor holds some position in the issuers' public debt and equity securities about which we report. Tuesday's edition of the TCR-LA features a list of companies with insolvent balance sheets obtained by our editors based on the latest balance sheets publicly available a day prior to publication. At first glance, this list may look like the definitive compilation of stocks that are ideal to sell short. Don't be fooled. Assets, for example, reported at historical cost net of depreciation may understate the true value of a firm's assets. A company may establish reserves on its balance sheet for liabilities that may never materialize. The prices at which equity securities trade in public market are determined by more than a balance sheet solvency test. Submissions about insolvency-related conferences are encouraged. Send announcements to conferences@bankrupt.com *********** S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N Troubled Company Reporter-Latin America is a daily newsletter co-published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA, Marites O. Claro, Joy A. Agravante, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Valerie U. Pascual, Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman, Editors. Copyright 2017. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2746. This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of the publishers. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. The TCR Latin America subscription rate is US$775 per half-year, delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information, contact Peter A. Chapman at 215-945-7000 or Nina Novak at 202-362-8552. * * * End of Transmission * * *