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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Friday, June 5, 2026, Vol. 27, No. 112
Headlines
F R A N C E
MEDIAWAN HOLDING: Fitch Affirms 'B' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
G E O R G I A
BANK OF GEORGIA: Moody's Rates New USD Sr. Unsecured Notes 'Ba2'
G E R M A N Y
PROCREDIT HOLIDING: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)' Rating on AT1 Notes
I R E L A N D
ARBOUR CLO II: Moody's Affirms B3 Rating on EUR11.3MM F-R Notes
AURIUM CLO II: Moody's Cuts Rating on EUR11.285MM F Notes to B3
BAIN CAPITAL 2018-1: Moody's Cuts Rating on EUR11.2MM F Notes to Ca
PROVIDUS CLO VIII: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class F-R Notes
L U X E M B O U R G
AMAGGI LUXEMBOURG: Fitch Puts 'BB-' Sr. Debt Rating on Watch Neg.
EPHIOS SUBCO 1: Fitch Rates EUR730MM PIK Toggle Notes 'CCC+'
N E T H E R L A N D S
BOI FINANCE: Fitch Affirms 'B' Rating on Senior Unsecured Notes
S P A I N
CIRSA ENTERPRISES: Moody's Ups CFR to Ba3, Alters Outlook to Stable
T U R K E Y
GURMAT ELEKTRIK: Fitch Rates USD380MM USD Secured Notes 'B+'
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
ABSOLUTE POST: Oury Clark Appointed as Administrator
BORR IHC: Moody's Rates Secured Notes Due 2032/2034 'B3'
CASTELL 2025-1: S&P Affirms 'B+(sf)' Rating on Class F-Dfrd Notes
DIONE BIDCO: Fitch Gives BB- Rating to EUR500MM Term Loan B
RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE 33: Fitch Affirms CCCsf Rating on Cl. F Notes
ULIVING@ESSEX3: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'B', On Watch Negative
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F R A N C E
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MEDIAWAN HOLDING: Fitch Affirms 'B' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
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Fitch Ratings has affirmed Mediawan Holding SAS's Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has also
affirmed Mediawan Financing SAS's senior secured debt at 'B+' with
a Recovery Rating of 'RR3'.
The ratings reflect Mediawan's leading position as a prominent
independent studio, focusing primarily on scripted content
production activities, and its developing licensing platform. It
benefits from long-term relationships with streaming platforms and
premium home entertainment broadcasters but has a relatively
concentrated customer base. The recent acquisition of the North
Road Company (NRC) broadens Mediawan's scale, geographic reach, and
genre mix, particularly in unscripted and documentary content.
Fitch expects revenue growth to be driven by sustained high
investment in Mediawan's production and licensing content,
translating into some volatility in free cash flow (FCF).
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's view that Mediawan's credit
metrics will remain consistent with the 'B' rating.
Key Rating Drivers
Independent Production and Licensing Platform: The acquisition of
NRC strengthens Mediawan's position as a leading independent
content production platform, through offering a slightly more
balanced mix across scripted and unscripted content, with the
latter representing 48% of NRC's revenue (compared with 30% for
Mediawan). Nevertheless, Mediawan remains predominantly focused on
scripted content (about 62% pro forma) across TV, film,
documentaries and animation. The company also benefits from its
expanding licensing and distribution activities and acts as a
one-stop shop for broadcasters, streamers and distributors,
covering all genres and distribution channels.
Combined Models Diversify Cash Flows: The combined platform
balances Mediawan's ownership-driven licensing model with NRC's
stable fee-based and customer-financed model, supporting
diversified cash flows and reducing earnings volatility. Mediawan
creates and produces content, retaining intellectual property (IP)
rights. Its projects are generally backed by customer funding and
tax credits, limiting upfront financial exposure. Mediawan
generates additional income through content licensing after the
initial broadcast window. This activity is cash-generative,
although revenue can fluctuate with production schedules and the
timing of distribution for successful titles.
In contrast, NRC operates a fee-based business model in which
customers fully finance projects and retain IP rights, limiting
NRC's content ownership and back-end monetisation while supporting
steadier fee income.
Improved Geographic Reach: NRC's acquisition enhances Mediawan's
geographic diversification, adding a stronger U.S. and U.K.
presence and broadening its English-speaking content. Prior to the
acquisition, the company's operations were concentrated in two
countries, France and Germany, which together represented about 77%
of total revenue (41% and 36%, respectively). This exposure will
fall to 58%, with the U.S. and U.K. now representing 30% of pro
forma revenue (18% and 12%, respectively).
Concentrated Customer Portfolio: Customer concentration remains
high after the NRC acquisition, with the top 10 customers
representing close to 60% of pro forma production revenue. NRC
increases exposure to over-the-top platforms, but reliance is
heightened, with Netflix representing nearly half of NRC's 2025
revenue. Fitch expects this to be reduced by a larger share of
future revenue from Apple, while the two streamers remain
Mediawan's two largest customers and represent about 30% of pro
forma production revenue in 2026. This aligns with the industry's
ongoing shift toward streaming platforms as dominant content
buyers.
Portfolio Mix Affects Margin: Fitch anticipates that lower-margin
production revenue will grow faster than the licensing and
distribution segment. The NRC's fee-based model, which supports a
higher margin of about 20%, partly offsets the mix-driven pressure
on group margins but does not fully counteract the expected decline
given the continued faster growth of lower-margin production
revenue. Fitch forecasts Fitch-defined EBITDA margins to increase
to 12.5% in 2026 from 11.5% in 2025, due to NRC's contribution.
Fitch then expects it to decline slightly to 12.2% in the following
three years due to the revenue mix effect.
Neutral to Positive FCF: Fitch forecasts Mediawan's FCF to remain
broadly neutral in 2026, constrained by production capex of about
9% of sales, reflecting content pre-financing needs. This should be
partly offset by positive working-capital inflows from customer
advance payments on production projects. Fitch anticipates the FCF
margin to rise to about 2% by 2029 as capex intensity gradually
declines. FCF should become more stable over time as the growing IP
library reduces reliance on production activity. In addition, NRC's
greater exposure to unscripted content, alongside its fee-based
model, should support steadier cash flow and reduce operational
volatility across the group.
Neutral Leverage Impact: The acquisition is broadly neutral to pro
forma leverage, with NRC's EBITDA contribution largely offsetting
an EUR225 million increase in debt. Fitch expects Fitch-EBITDA
gross leverage to improve slightly to 5.5x by end-2026 from 5.6x in
2025, before gradually declining to 5.3x by 2028. Mediawan's
leverage is moderate for the sector, given FCF volatility and
potential swings in IP-related film and TV content. Its leverage
calculations include EUR238 million production funding, raised at
the production studio level to bridge funding shortfalls, and
secured by IP rights and customer revenue, with no recourse to
Mediawan.
Likely Opportunistic M&A Strategy: Fitch expects Mediawan to focus
on integrating NRC within the group. However, Fitch expects
Mediawan to retain its opportunistic stance on acquisitions,
particularly if suitable entities, such as smaller production
labels, emerge in a consolidating industry. This is not included in
its base case projections, as it is considered event risk, and will
be reviewed if and when it materialises.
Peer Analysis
Mediawan's direct peers include other Fitch-rated content producer
and distributor Banijay S.A.S. (B+/Stable) and integrated media
business ITV plc (BBB-/Stable), which includes its own content
producing subsidiary, ITV Studios.
Banijay is larger, has more geographic reach, and a focus on
non-scripted content that contributes to steadier cash flow and
less operational fluctuation. However, Mediawan's high-quality
scripted content also has the potential to ensure stable cash flow
through its licensing and distribution division. Banijay's IDR is
influenced by Fitch's assessment of the robustness of its parent
company, Banijay Group N.V., resulting in a one-notch uplift from
Banijay's 'b' Standalone Credit Profile (SCP).
ITV Studios is also larger than Mediawan but has weaker geographic
diversification and direct exposure to the secular challenges of
the linear broadcasting division. This is balanced by a strong
market position in the UK as a vertically integrated public service
broadcaster, stronger financial flexibility and much lower
leverage.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Revenue growth of about 20% in 2026, reflecting NRC pro forma
contribution, followed by mid-single digit growth in 2027-2029
- EBITDA margin increasing to 12.5% in 2026 due to NRC contribution
and stabilising at 12.2% in 2027-2029
- Fitch-defined capex in 2026 at 9% of sales, before gradually
declining to 7.5% in 2028-2029
- M&A-related cash outflows (excluding NRC's upfront payment)
averaging EUR60 million annually in 2026-2029
- Annual increase in recourse to production credits in line with
revenue growth
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the SCP:
Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management ('b+', Moderate), sector characteristics
('bb+', Lower), market and competitive positioning ('b+', Higher),
diversification and asset quality ('bb+', Lower), company
operational characteristics ('bb', Moderate), profitability ('bb-',
Moderate), financial structure ('b-', Higher), and financial
flexibility ('b', Moderate).
The quantitative financial subfactors are based on standard CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the historical year
2025, 40% for the forecast year 2026 and 40% for the forecast year
2027.
B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and have no impact.
The governance assessment of 'some deficiencies' has no impact.
The operating environment assessment of 'a+' has no impact.
The SCP is 'b'.
To derive the Long-Term IDR:
Fitch made no adjustments to the SCP, resulting in an IDR of 'B'.
Recovery Analysis
Its recovery analysis assumes that Mediawan will be considered a
going concern (GC) in bankruptcy, and that it would be reorganised
rather than liquidated. This is because most of its value lies
within its production and rights management capabilities,
strengthened by long-dated client relationships and IP portfolio.
Fitch assesses GC EBITDA at EUR135 million, after corrective
measures and a restructuring of its capital structure allowing
Mediawan to retain a viable business model. Financial distress
leading to a restructuring may be driven by Mediawan losing some of
its customer contracts, alongside the progressively deteriorating
quality of its IP portfolio. A distressed enterprise value multiple
of 5.5x is applied to GC EBITDA to calculate a post-restructuring
valuation.
Its estimates of creditor claims include its two fully drawn term
loans B (TLB) of respectively EUR575 million and EUR225 million, as
well as an equally ranking EUR275 million revolving credit facility
(RCF). Mediawan has access to incentive programmes and tax credits
to fund content production costs.
The company uses dedicated facilities to bridge the timing
variations between content creation outflows and associated
receipts. The use of these facilities fluctuates based on changes
to the content creation schedules and tax receipt timing. The
facilities are raised at the level of each production studio and
are secured by broadcaster receivables and tax credits associated
with the ongoing seasons. Fitch recognises the necessity of the
facilities as a funding source and includes them in its leverage
calculations. However, Fitch excludes them from its recovery
analysis, as Fitch assumes they are likely to remain in place
during distress.
After deducting 10% for administrative claims, this generates a
ranked recovery in the 'RR3' band, leading to a 'B+' instrument
rating for the TLBs and RCF, ranking pari passu with each other.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Total debt/Fitch-calculated EBITDA deteriorating to above 6.0x,
due to EBITDA margin contraction or greater recourse to debt-funded
acquisitions
- More volatile FCF generation due to weaker cash conversion from
production investments
- EBITDA interest cover remaining below 2.8x
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion resulting in total
debt/Fitch-calculated EBITDA sustainably below 5.0x with a
conservative funding mix of cash and debt or equity-funded M&A
- Lower reliance on scripted production revenue and consolidation
of the licensing business leading to lower capex requirements and
consistently positive FCF generation through the cycle
- EBITDA interest cover sustained above 3.5x
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-2025, Mediawan had cash and cash equivalents of EUR174
million. Fitch expects it to be able to sustain most of its cash on
balance sheet despite continued high investments and acquisitions
earn-outs over the period. Consequently, Fitch does not see any
meaningful liquidity risks. In addition, the company has access to
a EUR275 million fully undrawn committed RCF with no major debt
maturity before 2031.
Issuer Profile
Mediawan is a prominent independent scripted and unscripted content
production platform with licensing and distribution activities.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for Mediawan.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
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Mediawan Holding SAS
LT IDR B Affirmed B
Mediawan Financing SAS
senior secured LT B+ Affirmed RR3 B+
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G E O R G I A
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BANK OF GEORGIA: Moody's Rates New USD Sr. Unsecured Notes 'Ba2'
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Moody's Ratings has assigned a Ba2 foreign-currency senior
unsecured rating to JSC Bank of Georgia (BoG)'s planned issuance of
USD-denominated notes. The outlook on the Ba2 rating is negative.
The proposed notes will constitute senior unsecured obligations of
BoG ranking at least pari passu in right of payment with the claims
of all other unsecured and unsubordinated creditors of BoG.
RATINGS RATIONALE
ASSIGNMENT OF SENIOR UNSECURED RATING
The Ba2 rating assigned to the notes reflects the bank's ba2
Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA). The rating does not benefit from
government support uplift despite BoG's significant systemic
importance because the bank's ba2 Adjusted BCA is in line with the
Government of Georgia Ba2 issuer and senior unsecured bond
ratings.
BoG's ba2 BCA reflects its strong profitability, driven by its
entrenched domestic market position, and solid capitalisation.
These strengths are balanced by elevated asset risks from the
bank's considerable foreign-currency lending along with high credit
growth. At the same time, high deposit dollarisation and some
reliance on non-resident deposits further constrain the bank's
funding profile, although mitigated by good liquidity.
RATING OUTLOOK
The negative outlook on the Ba2 foreign-currency senior unsecured
rating is driven by the negative outlook on the Government of
Georgia, similarly to the negative outlook on BoG's Ba2 long-term
deposit and local-currency senior unsecured ratings.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING
An upgrade of the foreign-currency senior unsecured rating is
unlikely given the negative outlook. However, the outlook may
change back to stable if the outlook on the sovereign changes to
stable.
The foreign-currency senior unsecured rating could be downgraded in
case the Government of Georgia's sovereign rating is downgraded.
The rating could also be downgraded if operating conditions weaken
(as reflected in Moody's Macro Profile for the country), or if the
bank's solvency and liquidity were to deteriorate materially.
Specifically, this could be the result of a sharp rise in problem
loans, significant capital outflows or a material increase in
deposit dollarisation, and a large depreciation of the Georgian
lari.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in this rating was Banks published
in November 2025.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
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G E R M A N Y
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PROCREDIT HOLIDING: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)' Rating on AT1 Notes
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Fitch Ratings has assigned ProCredit Holding AG's (PCH; BBB/
Stable) planned issue of additional Tier 1 (AT1) instruments an
expected rating of 'B-(EXP)'.
The assignment of the final rating is contingent on the receipt of
final documents conforming to the information that Fitch has
already received.
All other issuer and debt ratings are unaffected.
Key Rating Drivers
PCH's AT1 notes are rated four notches below its 'bb' Viability
Rating (VR), comprising two notches for loss severity, in the
absence of shareholder support, due to deep subordination and two
notches for incremental non-performance risk relative to the anchor
VR, given their fully discretionary, non-cumulative coupons.
The VR is used as the anchor rating for this instrument as it best
indicates the risk of the issuer becoming non-viable and reflects
its view that extraordinary support from PCH's largest
international financial institution's (KfW; AAA/Stable) shareholder
is less likely to fully extend to non-senior obligations. The
notching is in line with Fitch's baseline notching for AT1
instruments.
Fitch has not applied additional notching for non-performance risk
as the bank operates with adequate headroom above its mandatory
coupon-omission trigger, which Fitch expects to continue. At
end-2025, PCH's common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 13.1%, above
its regulatory minimum requirement of 10.3%, and the buffer above
the maximum distributable amount restriction point was more than
100bp.
The AT1 issue is intended to improve PCH's buffers above its
minimum total capital ratio requirement and support planned loan
growth. The notes will be subject to partial or full write-down if
PCH's consolidated CET1 ratio falls below 5.125%.
For more information about PCH's other ratings see 'Fitch Affirms
ProCredit Holding AG and ProCredit Bank AG at 'BBB'; Outlook
Stable' published on 14 April 2026.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The notes would likely be downgraded if PCH's VR is downgraded.
The ratings of the AT1 notes could also be downgraded if Fitch
perceives a heightened risk that the bank's capital cushion above
the maximum distributable amount trigger point could fall below
100bp.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
The notes would likely be upgraded if PCH's VR is upgraded.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating
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ProCredit Holding AG
Subordinated LT B-(EXP) Expected Rating
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I R E L A N D
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ARBOUR CLO II: Moody's Affirms B3 Rating on EUR11.3MM F-R Notes
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Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings on the following notes
issued by Arbour CLO II Designated Activity Company:
EUR27,700,000 Class B-1-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2034, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2021 Definitive
Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)
EUR12,300,000 Class B-2-R Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due
2034, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2021 Definitive
Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)
EUR25,000,000 Class C-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned A2 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR248,000,000 (Current outstanding amount EUR246,160,751) Class
A-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2034, Affirmed Aaa (sf);
previously on Jun 15, 2021 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR27,000,000 Class D-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed Baa3 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
EUR21,200,000 Class E-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed Ba3 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned Ba3 (sf)
EUR11,300,000 Class F-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed B3 (sf); previously on Jun 15, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned B3 (sf)
Arbour CLO II Designated Activity Company, originally issued in
January 2015, refinanced in May 2017 and reset in June 2021, is a
collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a portfolio of
mostly high-yield senior secured European loans. The portfolio is
managed by Oaktree Capital Management (UK) LLP. The transaction's
reinvestment period ended in January 2026.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrades on the Class B-1-R, Class B-2-R and Class C-R
notes are primarily a result of the benefit of the transaction
having reached the end of the reinvestment period in January 2026.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A-R, Class D-R, Class
E-R and Class F-R notes are primarily a result of the expected
losses on the notes remaining consistent with their current rating
levels, after taking into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its
relevant structural features and its actual over-collateralisation
ratios.
In light of reinvestment restrictions during the amortisation
period, and therefore the limited ability to effect significant
changes to the current collateral pool, Moody's analysed the deal
assuming a higher likelihood that the collateral pool
characteristics would maintain an adequate buffer relative to
certain covenant requirements.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR394.9m
Defaulted Securities: EUR0.4m
Diversity Score: 59
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3089
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 3.79 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS): 3.66%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 3.48%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 42.64%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: 0%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Moody's notes that the April 2026 trustee report was published at
the time Moody's were completing Moody's analysis of the March 2026
data. Key portfolio metrics such as WARF, diversity score, weighted
average spread and life, and OC ratios exhibit little or no change
between these dates.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in April 2026.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank and swap provider,
using the methodology "Structured Finance Counterparty Risks"
published in May 2025. Moody's concluded the ratings of the notes
are not constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's
over-collateralisation levels. Further, the timing of recoveries
and the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Moody's analysed
defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the market price or the
recovery rate to account for potential volatility in market prices.
Recoveries higher than Moody's expectations would have a positive
impact on the notes' ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
AURIUM CLO II: Moody's Cuts Rating on EUR11.285MM F Notes to B3
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Moody's Ratings has taken a variety of rating actions on the
following notes issued by Aurium CLO II Designated Activity
Company:
EUR35,000,000 Class B Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2034,
Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Jul 8, 2021 Definitive Rating
Assigned Aa2 (sf)
EUR11,285,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Downgraded to B3 (sf); previously on Jul 8, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned B2 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR187,000,000 (Current outstanding amount EUR186,961,273) Class
A-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2034, Affirmed Aaa (sf);
previously on Jul 8, 2021 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR30,000,000 Class A-2 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2034, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 8, 2021 Definitive
Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR24,500,000 Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed A2 (sf); previously on Jul 8, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned A2 (sf)
EUR21,000,000 Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed Baa3 (sf); previously on Jul 8, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
EUR17,500,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed Ba2 (sf); previously on Jul 8, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned Ba2 (sf)
Aurium CLO II Designated Activity Company, issued in June 2016 and
refinanced in July 2018 and July 2021, is a collateralised loan
obligation (CLO) backed by a portfolio of mostly high-yield senior
secured European loans. The portfolio is managed by Spire
Management Limited. The transaction's reinvestment period ended in
December 2025.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrade on the Class B notes is primarily a result of
the benefit of the transaction having reached the end of the
reinvestment period in December 2025. In light of reinvestment
restrictions during the amortisation period, and therefore the
limited ability to effect significant changes to the current
collateral pool, Moody's analysed the deal assuming a higher
likelihood that the collateral pool characteristics would maintain
an adequate buffer relative to certain covenant requirements.
The downgrade on the ratings on the Class F notes is primarily a
result of the deterioration in over-collateralisation ratios since
the payment date in June 2025.
The over-collateralisation ratios of the rated notes have
deteriorated since the payment date in June 2025. According to the
trustee report dated June 2025[1] the Class F OC ratio is reported
at 105.8% compared to March 2026[2] level of 104.7%.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A-1, Class A-2, Class
C, Class D and Class E notes are primarily a result of the expected
losses on the notes remaining consistent with their current rating
levels, after taking into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its
relevant structural features and its actual over-collateralisation
ratios.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR341.4 million
Defaulted Securities: EUR2.1 million
Diversity Score: 51
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 2952
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 4.1 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors): 3.5%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 3.0%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 43.8%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: 0%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in April 2026.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank, using the
methodology "Structured Finance Counterparty Risks" published in
May 2025. Moody's concluded the ratings of the notes are not
constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's
over-collateralisation levels. Further, the timing of recoveries
and the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Recoveries higher
than Moody's expectations would have a positive impact on the
notes' ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
BAIN CAPITAL 2018-1: Moody's Cuts Rating on EUR11.2MM F Notes to Ca
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has downgraded the rating on the following notes
issued by Bain Capital Euro CLO 2018-1 Designated Activity
Company:
EUR11,200,000 (Current outstanding amount EUR11,319,873) Class F
Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes due 2032, Downgraded
to Ca (sf); previously on Jul 11, 2025 Downgraded to Caa2 (sf)
Bain Capital Euro CLO 2018-1 Designated Activity Company, issued in
May 2018, is a collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a
portfolio of mostly high-yield senior secured European loans. The
portfolio is managed by Bain Capital Credit, Ltd. The transaction's
reinvestment period ended in April 2022.
A comprehensive review of all credit ratings for the respective
transaction(s) has been conducted during a rating committee.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating downgrade on the Class F notes is primarily based on
Moody's expectations of the ultimate loss-given-default on the
notes as a percent of their original principal balance. On April
27, 2026, Moody's were informed that in connection with an optional
redemption, the noteholders of Class F notes agreed to receive an
amount less than the original principal amount and waive interest
and deferred interest due. According to the May 2026[1] trustee
report, the portfolio is composed of EUR33.6m cash and EUR4.8m of
assets. Following the notice of Redemption Threshold Amount on May
21, 2026, EUR31.2m will be used to repay the Class D and E notes,
and the rest will be distributed to the Class F noteholders,
leading to the termination of this transaction.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in this rating was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in April 2026.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank, using the
methodology "Structured Finance Counterparty Risks" published in
May 2025. Moody's concluded the ratings of the notes are not
constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
In addition to the quantitative factors, qualitative factors are
part of the rating committee's considerations. These qualitative
factors include the structural protections in the transaction, its
recent performance given the market environment, the legal
environment, specific documentation features, the collateral
manager's track record and the potential for selection bias in the
portfolio. All information available to rating committees,
including macroeconomic forecasts, input from Moody's other
analytical groups, market factors, and judgments regarding the
nature and severity of credit stress on the transactions, can
influence the final rating decision.
PROVIDUS CLO VIII: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class F-R Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Providus CLO VIII DAC's refinancing
notes final ratings and affirmed its existing F-R notes.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Providus CLO VIII DAC
A-R XS2905408014 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AAAsf
A-R-R XS3385532000 LT AAAsf New Rating
B-R XS2905408105 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AAsf
B-R-R XS3385532265 LT AAsf New Rating
C-R XS2905408527 LT PIFsf Paid In Full Asf
C-R-R XS3385532422 LT Asf New Rating
D-R XS2905408873 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BBB-sf
D-R-R XS3385532778 LT BBB-sf New Rating
E-R XS2905409095 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BB-sf
E-R-R XS3385532935 LT BB-sf New Rating
F-R XS2905409251 LT B-sf Affirmed B-sf
Transaction Summary
Providus CLO VIII DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior secured
obligations (at least 90%) with a component of senior unsecured,
mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield bonds, and is managed
by Permira European CLO Manager LLP. Net proceeds from the
refinancing notes were used to redeem the existing notes, except
for the class F-R notes and the subordinated notes. The CLO has 2.9
years remaining in the reinvestment period and a seven-year
weighted average life (WAL) test at closing of the refinancing,
with an original target par of EUR425 million. The deal originally
closed in April 2023 and was reset in October 2024.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The
Fitch-calculated weighted average rating factor of the identified
portfolio is 25.1.
Strong Recovery Expectation (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated
weighted average recovery rate of the identified portfolio is
61.3%.
Diversified Portfolio (Positive): The transaction has various
concentration limits, including a maximum exposure to the three
largest Fitch-defined industries in the portfolio at 40%. These
covenants ensure the asset portfolio will not be exposed to
excessive concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): Two of the transaction's Fitch
matrices were updated in connection with this refinancing,
corresponding to a WAL covenant of seven years. The two matrices
correspond to fixed-rate asset limits of 5% and 12.5% respectively.
The transaction has a six-year reinvestment period, which is
governed by reinvestment criteria similar to those of other
European transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on a
Fitch-stressed portfolio with the aim of testing the robustness of
the transaction structure against its covenants and portfolio
guidelines.
Cash Flow Modelling (Neutral): The WAL for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio and matrices analysis is in line with the
WAL covenant, which, under Fitch's criteria, is below the floor
with no further reduction. In addition, its analysis has considered
that the transaction is about 0.5% below the target par of EUR425
million.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) and a 25% decrease of
the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of the identified
portfolio would lead to downgrades of one notch each for the class
B-R-R, D-R-R and E-R-R notes, two notches for the C-R-R notes, and
to below 'B-sf' for the class F-R notes.
Downgrades, which are based on the identified portfolio, may occur
if the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration. The class C-R-R
notes have a one-notch rating cushion and the class B-R-R, D-R-R,
E-R-R and F-R notes each have a two-notch rating cushion, due to
the better metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio
than the Fitch-stressed portfolio.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings of the
Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of up to three
notches each across the capital structure.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR and a 25% increase in the RRR
across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to
upgrades of up to three notches each across the capital structure.
Upgrades during the reinvestment period, which are based on the
Fitch-stressed portfolio, may occur on better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, allowing
the notes to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the
transaction's remaining life. Upgrades after the end of the
reinvestment period may result from stable portfolio credit quality
and deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the rating
agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating
methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Providus CLO VIII
DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
===================
L U X E M B O U R G
===================
AMAGGI LUXEMBOURG: Fitch Puts 'BB-' Sr. Debt Rating on Watch Neg.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has placed on Rating Watch Negative (RWN) Andre Maggi
Participacoes S.A.'s (Amaggi) 'BB-' Long-Term Foreign and Local
Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) as well as Amaggi Luxembourg
International S.a r.l.'s 'BB-' senior debt and Amaggi's 'AA(bra)'
Long-Term National Scale Rating.
The RWN follows the recently announced acquisition of a 40% stake
in FS Industria de Combustiveis Ltda. and related companies,
financed with USD700 million of new debt. Fitch believes the
transaction weakens Amaggi's credit profile and financial
flexibility. RMI leverage and net leverage will rise to 7.1x and
4.0x, respectively, levels not commensurate with the 'BB' category.
Metrics will likely remain elevated longer than previously expected
as deleveraging progresses. Although the deal supports
diversification, Amaggi's access to FS's cash flow will be limited
to dividend distributions.
The acquisition is still pending antitrust approvals and, if
completed, the ratings will likely be downgraded by one notch.
Key Rating Drivers
Prolonged High Leverage: The acquisition of a 40% stake in FS will
substantially increase Amaggi's leverage and reduce its financial
flexibility. Fitch expects the transaction to weaken the company's
credit metrics relative to previous expectations, with RMI-leverage
of 7.1x in 2026, 6.6x in 2027 and 6.1x in 2028, and RMI net
leverage remaining above 4.0x during the same period. This compares
unfavorably with the current rating sensitivities and increases
downside risks if operating performance is weaker than expected or
deleveraging is delayed.
Strategic Benefits Support Business Profile: Fitch believes the
acquisition could strengthen Amaggi's business profile because it
enhances diversification and increases integration in the corn
value chain. The investment should expand the issuer's exposure to
value-added products and support a broader operating platform.
These benefits, however, are offset in the near to medium term by
the additional pressure on the financial profile.
Stable Soybeans Outlook: Fitch's base case assumes that soybean
production in Mato Grosso in 2026 will be in line with 2025 at
around 51 million tons. After a challenging 2024, expected
production provides healthier competition for origination by
improving margin spreads and diluting logistics expenses for
traders, as well as improving margins for farmers in the region.
However, El Niño developments in 2H26 add downside risk to Fitch's
assumptions due to potential drought and irregular rainfall and
could affect production and yields. For 2027, Fitch expects soybean
production to decline due to higher fertilizer and freight costs
from the Iran conflict.
Commodities Prices: Fitch assumes soybean prices of USD11.30 per
bushel in 2026 and USD11.10 per bushel in 2027, as well as corn
prices of USD4.47 per bushel in 2026 and 2027. These prices should
not pressure the working capital needs of commodity trading
companies. However, fertilizer prices in the second half of 2026
warrant monitoring because they will affect soybean crop costs for
harvest in the first quarter of 2027.
Competitive Structure in Mato Grosso: Amaggi's capacity to process
large volumes, thanks to its logistics, enables the group to
compete with large multinational grain companies such as Archer
Daniels Midland Company (ADM; A/Negative), Cargill Incorporated,
and Bunge Global S.A. (Bunge; BBB+/Stable) in the acquisition of
grains in Mato Grosso, which is the largest soy and corn producing
region in Brazil.
Counterparty Risks: Financing provided to farmers is subject to
strict criteria and is secured by rural credit notes. No single
producer represents more than 1.4% of Amaggi's annual origination.
As a large agricultural producer with farmlands in different
locations, the company follows the development of the crop over
different locations in the state.
EBITDA Margins Around 5.3%: Fitch forecasts EBITDA margins of
around 5.3% in 2026 versus 3.6% in 2024 and 6.1% in 2025. The crop
failure in Mato Grosso in 2024 impacted the group's overall
performance, but the strong performance of the 2025 crop season was
important for margin recovery. Fitch projects cash flow from
operations of USD209 million in 2026 and USD252 million in 2027.
Peer Analysis
Fitch views Amaggi's business risk profile as weak relative to its
peers Bunge, Cargill and ADM. Amaggi has a smaller operational
scale, lower diversification, and substantial concentration in one
region. Although Amaggi's consolidated profitability is adequate,
it remains exposed to intense industry competition from large
international groups with strong credit profiles.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Soybeans prices of USD11.30 per bushel in 2026 and USD11.10 per
bushel in 2027;
- Corn prices of USD4.47 per bushel in 2026 and in 2027;
- Cotton prices of USD71 cents per pound in 2026 and USD74 cents
per pound in 2027;
- Total investments of USD416 million in 2026 and USD425 million in
2027.
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
- Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management (bbb-, Lower), sector characteristics (bb+,
Moderate), market and competitive positioning (bb-, Higher),
diversification and asset quality (bb, Moderate), company
operational characteristics (bbb-, Moderate), profitability (a-,
Lower), financial structure (b-, Moderate), and financial
flexibility (bb, Moderate).
- The quantitative financial subfactors are based on standard CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the latest historical
year 2025, 40% for the forecast year 2026 and 40% for the forecast
year 2027.
- The Governance assessment of 'good' has no impact.
- The Operating Environment assessment of 'bb+' has no impact.
- The SCP is 'bb-'.
To derive the Long-Term IDR:
- Fitch made no adjustments to the SCP, resulting in Foreign
Currency and Local Currency IDRs of 'BB-'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Loss of business diversification;
- RMI-adjusted net leverage (RMI adjusted total net debt to
operating EBITDA) above 4.0x on a sustainable basis;
- RMI-adjusted gross leverage (RMI adjusted total gross debt to
operating EBITDA) above 4.5x on a sustainable basis;
- Liquidity ratio (cash and marketable securities + RMI + account
receivables/total short liabilities) below 0.8x at year-end;
- RMI-adjusted EBITDA/interest paid below 2.3x;
- Secured debt/EBITDA above 2.5x;
- A multi-notch downgrade of Brazil's Country Ceiling and inability
to cover hard currency interest expenses by offshore cash and
exports.
The RWN would be resolved with a downgrade upon confirmation of the
transaction's closing and funding from a new USD700 million
facilities plus up to USD150 million in an intercompany loan from
its sister company in Europe.
Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Improved scale and geographical diversification;
- RMI-adjusted net leverage (RMI adjusted total net debt to
operating EBITDA) below 3.0x on a sustained basis;
- RMI-adjusted gross leverage (RMI adjusted total gross debt to
operating EBITDA) below 3.5x on a sustainable basis;
- Liquidity ratio (cash and marketable securities + RMI + account
receivables/total short-term liability) above 1x on a sustainable
basis;
- Secured debt/EBITDA below 1x.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Amaggi's financial flexibility weakens post-transaction following
an increase in gross leverage and higher medium-term refinancing
risks. Liquidity headroom to absorb shocks inherent to the business
have also diminished. However, the company has demonstrated access
to diversified sources of external liquidity for short-term working
capital along with cash, short-term marketable securities, and high
levels of liquid RMI, .
As of Dec. 31, 2025, Amaggi reported consolidated cash and
marketable securities of USD870 million and USD890 million of
short-term debt. The company also has access to several uncommitted
bank lines and maintains a minimum cash policy of USD400 million.
The company's liquidity ratio, based on cash, receivables, RMI and
derivatives divided by total current liabilities, was 1.0x as of
Dec. 31, 2025. On a pro forma basis, Amaggi's debt amortization
profile would be USD1.2 billion in 2026, USD765 million in 2027 and
USD1.3 billion in 2028.
Issuer Profile
Amaggi is Brazil's fourth largest soft commodity trader, trading
around 18 million tons of grains annually. It is the third largest
agricultural producer with 386,000 hectares of farmland. Amaggi
operates across the agribusiness chain including farming, trading,
processing and logistics.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for Amaggi.
ESG Considerations
Andre Maggi Participacoes S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4'
for Waste & Hazardous Materials Management; Ecological Impacts due
to the ecological impact of its land use. A large amount of the
grain in its commodity business comes from the Amazon and Cerrado
biomes. This has a negative impact on the company's credit profile
and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Andre Maggi Participacoes S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4'
for Group Structure due to due to the existence of related-party
transactions, which has a negative impact on the credit profile and
is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Andre Maggi Participacoes S.A. has an ESG Relevance Score of '4'
for Governance Structure due to the lack of board independence
given that the company is privately controlled, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Amaggi Luxembourg
International S.a r.l.
senior unsecured LT BB- Rating Watch On BB-
Andre Maggi
Participacoes S.A.
LT IDR BB- Rating Watch On BB-
LC LT IDR BB- Rating Watch On BB-
Natl LT AA(bra)Rating Watch On AA(bra)
EPHIOS SUBCO 1: Fitch Rates EUR730MM PIK Toggle Notes 'CCC+'
------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Ephios Subco 1 S.a.r.L.'s EUR370 million
structurally and contractually subordinated payment in kind (PIK)
toggle notes a final 'CCC+' subordinated rating with a Recovery
Rating of 'RR6'.
Proceeds from the notes have been used to refinance EUR370 million
of the outstanding EUR400 million PIK loan with the remaining EUR30
million having been amended and extended (A&E) until January 2032
with both treated as debt. Following the issuance, Fitch-calculated
leverage will temporarily increase in 2026 above the sensitivities
for Ephios Subco 3 S.a.r.l.'s (Synlab) 'B' Long-Term Issuer Default
Rating (IDR), given Fitch's debt treatment for the new PIK notes.
The IDR is supported by strong visibility of revenue and margin
growth through 2027, allowing leverage to ease into the
sensitivities over the next 18 to 24 months. Its expectations of
neutral to positive free cash flow (FCF) generation, adequate
EBITDAR fixed charge coverage and Synlab's ability to deleverage
underpin the Stable Outlook.
Key Rating Drivers
PIK Notes Debt Treatment: Synlab issued new PIK toggle notes of
EUR370 million due January 2032 that are structurally and
contractually subordinated to the existing senior secured and
unsecured debt. The notes features, mainly the "pay if you can"
interest regime subject to a minimum balance sheet cash level
restriction, drive Fitch's treatment as debt of the rated entity.
Temporary Spike in Leverage: The issuance has increased Synlab's
gross debt, leading to a deterioration in leverage metrics. Fitch
expects Fitch calculated EBITDAR gross leverage to rise to 7.8x
(7.4x net) at end-2026, above the negative leverage sensitivity for
the 'B' rating. Nevertheless, Fitch expects an improvement in gross
leverage to below 7.5x in 2027 and below 7.0x in 2028, driven by
its expectations of organic revenue growth close to 3% annually and
modest margin expansion. Fitch expects EBITDAR fixed charge
coverage to remain around 1.7x-2.0x during 2026-2029, adequate for
the 'B' rating.
Its rating case does not factor in faster deleveraging through
divestments of non-core countries or portfolio pruning at
attractive multiples. However, the Stable Outlook is supported by
the financial flexibility these strategic options provide. Fitch
understands management intends to pursue these options selectively,
as it did in 2025, depending on its ability to divest at attractive
valuations.
Financial Policy Key to Rating: Any further rise in debt,
debt-funded acquisitions or dividend distributions might further
pressure the already exhausted leverage headroom, potentially
driving negative rating action. The expected deleveraging is driven
by the assumed operating performance improvements, but also implies
a more conservative financial policy, abstaining from shareholders
distributions and potential divestment-led deleveraging.
Steady Margin Recovery: Synlab's Fitch-defined EBITDA margin
(calculated excluding IFRS16 lease-related expenses) improved in
2025 to 9.7% from 8.9% in 2024 (pro forma for a cyberattack). Fitch
forecasts a further gradual rise in margins, supported by the cost
optimisation programme, portfolio optimisation focusing on core
markets and disposal of non-core assets. Fitch expects the
Fitch-defined EBITDA margin to expand towards 11% in 2026,
gradually improving towards 13% by 2029.
Neutral FCF to Improve: Fitch forecasts marginally negative FCF
generation in 2026 due to ongoing capex programmes, high interest
expenses and reorganisation costs in some countries. Fitch expects
the FCF margin to be slightly positive in 2027 and to gradually
improve towards 2.5% in 2029, driven by higher EBITDA and lower
capex intensity.
Defensive Sector, Reimbursement Pressure: Fitch views lab testing
as a defensive and non-cyclical industry. The sector benefits from
structurally rising demand, supported by the growing prevalence of
preventive and stratified medicine. However, these favourable
demand trends are partly offset by ongoing price and reimbursement
pressures as national regulators seek to contain healthcare
spending. Larger operators such as Synlab are better positioned to
benefit from long-term demand growth, given their ability to
capture scale efficiencies and gain market share from smaller, less
efficient and less focused peers.
Diversification Mitigates Regulatory Pressure: Synlab operates
across multiple regulated healthcare markets, subject to different
pricing and reimbursement dynamics. This mitigates the impact of
adverse reimbursement changes in any single country. Synlab's
largest markets are France, Germany, Italy and the UK, which
together account for around two-thirds of revenue. Certain
jurisdictions, such as France, are subject to tight price and
volume agreements, while others, particularly in northern and
eastern Europe, benefit from greater pricing flexibility through
inflation-indexed tariff frameworks.
Peer Analysis
Synlab compares well with its direct peers in European clinical
laboratory services. It is much smaller than higher-rated peers
like Quest Diagnostics, Inc. (BBB+/Stable) and Eurofins Scientific
S.E. (BBB-/Stable), more concentrated on European market (about 90%
of sales) and more exposed to the routine lab-testing market. Quest
and Eurofins are more diversified across other diagnostic markets
such as environmental and food testing.
Nevertheless, Synlab has larger scale than its direct competitors
in European clinical laboratory services such as Inovie Group
(B/Negative) and Laboratoire Eimer Selas (Biogroup; B/Stable).
Synlab also benefits from a better geographical diversification
than Inovie and Biogroup, which are primarily focused on France.
Synlab's Fitch-defined EBITDA margins of 10%-13% are lower than
peers due to its geographic mix and associated regulatory
reimbursement environment. Synlab's EBITDAR leverage is better than
Inovie and Biogroup's, albeit weaker than higher-rated peers such
as Quest Diagnostics and Eurofins reflecting their more
conservative financial policies.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Organic sales growth of 2.9% on average for 2026-2029, as volume
growth offsets price declines
- Revenue to increase by 2.8% in 2026 and in 2027, with further
growth of 2.9% in 2028 and 3.5% in 2029 supported by acquisitions
in 2029
- EBITDA margins (after IFRS16 lease expenses) to rise to 11% in
2026 with further gradual improvement towards 13% by 2029
- Disposal proceeds of EUR35 million in 2026
- No acquisitions during 2026-2028 followed by EUR50 million
acquisitions in 2029, at enterprise value/EBITDA multiple of 10x
- Modest working capital inflow in 2026-2027, followed by modest
outflows in 2028-2029
- Capex at 4.5% of sales in 2026, followed by 3%-4% during
2027-2029
- Repayment of EUR248 million of the existing PIK loan with a mix
of drawn revolving credit facility (RCF) of EUR125 million and
available cash on balance
- New PIK loan of EUR370 million treated as debt; Fitch treats the
residual amount of EUR30 million under the rolled and amended
existing PIK loan also as debt
- No common dividends paid over 2026-2029
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
- Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): Management (b+, Moderate), Sector Characteristics
(bb-, Moderate), Market and Competitive Positioning (bb, Moderate),
Diversification and Asset Quality (bb, Higher), Company Operational
Characteristics (bb-, Moderate), Profitability (bb-, Moderate),
Financial Structure (ccc, Higher), and Financial Flexibility (bb-,
Moderate).
- The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the historical year
2025, 30% for the forecast year 2026, 30% for the forecast year
2027 and 20% for the forecast year 2028.
- B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and result in no
adjustment.
- The Governance assessment of 'Good' results in no adjustment.
- The Operating Environment assessment of 'a+' results in no
adjustment.
- The other risk elements adjustment applies and results in an
adjustment of 1 notch(es).
- The SCP is 'b'.
Recovery Analysis
The recovery analysis assumes that Synlab would be reorganised as a
going concern in bankruptcy rather than liquidated, given its
leading market positions, asset-light operations and diversified
geographical exposure.
Fitch estimates going-concern EBITDA of EUR225 million, which
reflects the potential regulatory changes, a failure to improve
margins, and an aggressive and poorly executed M&A strategy leading
to an unsustainable capital structure. At this EBITDA level Synlab
will have an unsustainable capital structure with neutral to
negative cash flow generation.
Fitch assumes a 10% administrative claim.
Fitch uses a 6.0x EBITDA enterprise value multiple to calculate a
post-reorganisation valuation, which is comparable with multiplies
applied to peers such as Biogroup. This multiple reflects Synlab's
geographic breadth and scale as a leader in the European
lab-testing market and its cash-generative operations.
Fitch assumes Synlab's EUR500 million RCF is fully drawn on default
and ranks equally with senior secured loans and notes. Fitch treats
the EUR85.5 million term loan B4 (TLB4) issued by Synlab Bondco as
subordinated to its senior secured debt, as not guaranteed by any
operating subsidiary. The new PIK EUR370 million notes are
structurally and contractually subordinated to the senior secured
and unsecured debt.
Its waterfall analysis indicates ranked recovery in the 'RR3' band
for the senior secured debt, supporting a 'B+' instrument rating.
Ranked recovery for the senior unsecured debt falls in the 'RR6'
band, supporting a 'CCC+' instrument rating. The subordinated PIK
notes also fall in the 'RR6' band, supporting a 'CCC+(EXP)'
instrument rating. Fitch does not apply further notching despite
the presence of another 'RR6' instrument, as the outstanding under
TLB4 is not material, matures in 2027, and the group does not
intend to issue new unsecured debt.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- EBITDAR leverage above 7.5x on a sustained basis.
- EBITDAR fixed-charge coverage below 1.5x on a sustained basis.
- Negative or neutral FCF margins beyond 2026.
- Absence of like-for-like sales growth, inability to extract
synergies and integrate acquisitions, or other operational
challenges.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- A more conservative and clearly communicated financial policy
leading to EBITDAR leverage below 5.5x on a sustained basis.
- EBITDAR fixed-charge coverage above 2.0x on a sustained basis.
- Strengthening FCF margins in the low-single digits on a sustained
basis.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-2025 Synlab's Fitch-defined readily available cash (net of
restricted cash of EUR50 million) was EUR265 million. This is
sufficient to cover expected marginally negative FCF of EUR10
million in 2026. The group's only material upcoming maturity is its
EUR85 million TLB due in July 2027.
The liquidity position is also supported with an available
committed EUR500 million RCF due in October 2030, which has been
partly drawn by around EUR125 million to repay EUR248 million of
the existing EUR648 million PIK loan. Available cash of EUR123
million was used to redeem the existing PIK loan.
The group has issued EUR370 million PIK toggle notes due January
2032, which Fitch treats as debt and that have been used to redeem
the existing EUR370 million PIK loan.
The group's sources of funding mainly consist of EUR1.3 billion TLB
due April 2031 and EUR450 million senior secured notes due January
2031. The group repriced its TLB due April 2031 in February 2026
and partly repaid its TLB due July 2027 with EUR85 million
currently outstanding. The group also repriced its RCF in April
2026, which together with TLB repricing resulted in about 150bp
savings since the take-private transaction.
Issuer Profile
Synlab is one of Europe's largest providers of medical diagnostic
testing services. It runs operations in around 40 countries, with a
predominant focus on France, Germany, Italy and the UK.
Summary of Financial Adjustments
Fitch restricts EUR50 million from readily available cash.
Fitch-defined EBITDA deducts IFRS16 lease expenses, calculated as
depreciation of right-of-use assets plus interest on lease
borrowings.
Fitch decided to adjust the reported lease liability to calculate
the EBITDAR leverage ratios. Fitch's lease-equivalent debt was
calculated using a capitalisation multiple of 5.5x to Fitch-defined
lease expenses of EUR104 million for 2025. Fitch-defined lease
expenses were calculated as 60% of IFRS16 lease expenses,
representing the approximate share of leases related to real
estate.
Date of Relevant Committee
May 8, 2026
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for Ephios Subco 3 S.a.r.l.
ESG Considerations
Ephios Subco 3 S.a.r.l has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for
Exposure to Social Impacts due to increased risks of tightening
regulation that may constrain its ability to maintain operating
profitability and cash flow. This has a negative impact on the
credit profile and is relevant to the rating[s] in conjunction with
other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Ephios Subco 1
S.a.r.l.
Subordinated LT CCC+ New Rating RR6 CCC+(EXP)
=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================
BOI FINANCE: Fitch Affirms 'B' Rating on Senior Unsecured Notes
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nigeria-based Bank of Industry Limited's
(BOI) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' and its National
Long-Term Rating at 'AAA(nga)'. The Outlooks are Stable.
Key Rating Drivers
BOI's IDRs are driven by potential support from the Nigerian
authorities, as reflected by the bank's Government Support Rating
(GSR) of 'b', and are equalised with the sovereign ratings. The
Stable Outlook on BOI's Long-Term IDR mirrors that on the
sovereign. BOI's National Long-Term Rating also reflects potential
support from the sovereign and is the highest attainable on Fitch's
National Rating scale for Nigeria.
Fitch does not assign a Viability Rating to BOI, consistent with
its approach for development banks. This is because the bank's
business model is driven by its policy role and is dependent on
government support and so could not be carried out on a commercial
basis.
Government Support: The Nigerian authorities have a high propensity
to support BOI, given its 99.9% state ownership and
well-established and clearly defined policy role. Further, most of
BOI's borrowings are guaranteed - directly and indirectly - by the
state. Nevertheless, Fitch views the authorities' ability to
support BOI as limited, as indicated by Nigeria's 'B' Long-Term
IDR.
Improved Operating Environment: The Nigerian naira has stabilised,
the banking sector's underlying profitability and foreign-currency
(FC) liquidity have improved, and capital raisings have boosted
Nigerian banks' capitalisation. However, inflation remains high,
regulatory intervention is burdensome, and the expiry of
forbearance has increased impaired loans (Stage 3 loans under IFRS
9) ratios and prudential provisions.
Well-Defined Policy Role: BOI's mandate as Nigeria's main
development bank is to finance the country's industrial sector and
promote financial inclusion. BOI mostly provides low-cost long-term
financing to micro-SMEs and corporates through direct customer
loans, and customer loans granted at preferential rates and
guaranteed by domestic banks.
BOI has started investing in debt, convertible notes and equities
of corporates. It will offer non-interest banking through a
separate window after being granted a license in early 2026.
Strategy Aligned with Public Mission: The bank's strategy is linked
to public policy, including the country's industrialisation and
import-substitution initiatives. The "Nigeria First" policy
(approved by the Federal Executive Council in May 2025 and aimed at
prioritising local industries and boosting industrial
transformation) provides growth opportunities for BOI.
Policy Role Drives Risk Appetite: BOI targets some vulnerable
segments of the economy, as part of its development mandate. The
bank lends to priority and emerging sectors typically underserved
by other financial institutions. Nevertheless, adequate
underwriting standards and risk controls mitigate risks associated
with this type of lending.
Sound Asset-Quality Metrics: BOI's Stage 3 loans ratio remains well
below the sector average although the bank targets vulnerable
segments of the economy. Fitch views reserve coverage of Stage 3
loans as reasonable, while the loan book is highly collateralised.
Improved Profitability: Profitability declined slightly in 2025
from 2024, when profits were boosted by strong gains on derivatives
and low impairment charges. Net interest margin (NIM) compares
favourably with that of commercial banks due to lower funding
costs.
Solid Capital Ratios: BOI maintains high capital ratios, which
Fitch views as necessary for its policy role in the challenging
domestic operating environment. Healthy internal capital generation
supports capital ratios, while capital support from the state is
available to facilitate growth.
State-Guaranteed Funding: At end-2025, most of BOI's funding was
guaranteed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) or the federal
government of Nigeria. Funding is mainly sourced from international
development finance institutions, but also from the CBN.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
BOI's Long-Term IDR and GSR would be downgraded if Nigeria's
Long-Term IDRs are downgraded. The ratings are also sensitive to a
reduced propensity of the authorities to support the bank. This
could arise from a change in BOI's policy role, such as an
increasing shift towards commercial activities, or a material
reduction in government ownership. However, Fitch views this as
unlikely.
BOI's National Ratings are sensitive to negative changes in Fitch's
opinion of the bank's creditworthiness relative to that of domestic
peers.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
An upgrade of BOI's Long-Term IDR and GSR would require an upgrade
of Nigeria's Long-Term IDRs.
BOI's National Long-Term Rating is at the highest level on Fitch's
Nigerian National Rating scale and cannot be upgraded.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
The Short-Term IDR of 'B' and the National Short-Term Rating of
'F1+(nga)' are the only options mapping to a Long-Term IDR of 'B'
and a National Long-Term Rating of 'AAA(nga)', respectively.
BOI's EUR750 million 7.5% senior participation notes due in 2027,
which are placed through BOI Finance B.V., a Dutch-based special
purpose vehicle, are rated in line with BOI's and Nigeria's
Long-Term IDRs. The bank's financial obligations to BOI Finance
B.V. under the senior notes are irrevocably and unconditionally
guaranteed by the federal government of Nigeria. The Recovery
Rating of 'RR4' on the notes reflects average recovery prospects in
a default.
OTHER DEBT AND ISSUER RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
The Short-Term IDR and the National Short-Term Rating are sensitive
to changes in the Long-Term IDR and the National Long-Term Rating,
respectively.
The notes' rating would move in tandem with both Nigeria's and
BOI's Long-Term IDRs.
Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings
BOI's IDR and debt rating are equalised with Nigeria's sovereign
ratings.
ESG Considerations
BOI has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for human rights,
community relations, and access & affordability to reflect the
impact of its policy role, which includes supporting micro/small
local agricultural, manufacturing and service companies, as well as
women, youth and farmers, with the aim of creating employment and
reducing Nigeria's reliance on imports. This has a positive impact
on the credit profile through strengthening of BOI's policy role
and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
BOI Finance B.V.
senior unsecured LT B Affirmed RR4 B
Bank of Industry Limited
LT IDR B Affirmed B
ST IDR B Affirmed B
Natl LT AAA(nga) Affirmed AAA(nga)
Natl ST F1+(nga) Affirmed F1+(nga)
Gov't Support b Affirmed b
=========
S P A I N
=========
CIRSA ENTERPRISES: Moody's Ups CFR to Ba3, Alters Outlook to Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded to Ba3 from B1 the corporate family
rating of Cirsa Enterprises, S.A. (Cirsa or the company) and to
Ba3-PD from B1-PD its probability of default rating. Concurrently,
Moody's have also upgraded to Ba3 from B1 the instrument ratings on
the EUR575 million backed senior secured notes due 2031, the
EUR425million backed senior secured floating rate notes due 2032,
the EUR375 million backed senior secured notes due 2028, and the
EUR450 million backed senior secured notes due 2029, all issued by
Cirsa Finance International S.a r.l., a direct subsidiary of the
company. The outlook on both entities has been changed to stable
from positive.
"Moody's have upgraded Cirsa's ratings to Ba3 as a result of the
improvement in financial metrics achieved and the more conservative
financial policy adhered to since completing an IPO in July 2025,"
says Kristin Yeatman, a Moody's Ratings VP-Senior Analyst and lead
analyst for Cirsa.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrade to Ba3 reflects Cirsa's lower Moody's-adjusted leverage
of 3.1x in 2025 compared with 4.1x before the IPO, and Moody's
expectations that leverage will continue to reduce towards 2.5x in
the next 12-18 months. Moody's also expects a substantial
improvement in the company's interest coverage (EBIT/interest),
towards 4.0x in the next 12-18 months compared with 1.8x in 2025.
This is due to the reduced level of debt as well as the lower rate
of interest achieved in the October 2025 debt refinancing.
Cirsa's Ba3 CFR reflects its leading market positions in Spain and
Latin America and its geographic and business segment
diversification. Conversely, Cirsa's rating is constrained by the
company's material presence in emerging markets, which generate
around 40% of the company's EBITDA, the company's limited although
increasing online offering, its exposure to foreign-exchange
fluctuations and reliance on repatriation of cash from Latin
American countries as well as the regulatory risks inherent to the
gambling industry. Although it is not included in Moody's leverage
calculation Moody's notes that the PIK financing which sits outside
the restricted group weighs on the rating. If the PIK was included
it in Moody's leverage calculation it would add nearly 1.0x 2025
EBITDA.
Cirsa delivered another year of strong growth in 2025, with net
operating revenue rising 8.8% year-on-year to about EUR2.34
billion, supported by continued organic expansion across all
business units. Company-reported EBITDA increased by around 6.8%
(or 7.7% excluding IPO costs) to EUR747 million, implying a stable
margin of about 32% despite the rising contribution of lower-margin
online activities. The group's online segment was a key driver,
with revenue increasing about 25.8% and reaching more than EUR520
million, reflecting the success of its omnichannel strategy and
recent acquisitions.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE (ESG) CONSIDERATIONS
The decision to upgrade Cirsa's ratings to Ba3 reflects corporate
governance considerations associated with the growing track record
of lower leverage and adherence to a more conservative financial
policy since the IPO in July 2025. It also reflects an improvement
in Cirsa's social risk profile due to the stable performance of the
retail estate alongside a growing online presence.
LIQUIDITY
Cirsa's liquidity is good, supported by EUR313 million of cash as
of December 31, 2025 and a EUR350 million revolving credit facility
(RCF) maturing in March 2031, of which EUR26 million was drawn as
of the same date. Moody's expects that the majority of the RCF will
remain undrawn in the next 12-18 months.
The company's liquidity is also supported by Moody's expectations
of strong Moody's-adjusted free cash flow (FCF) of around EUR100
million per year in 2026 and 2027, after annual dividends of at
least EUR175 million, but excluding the group's business
acquisition-related cash outflows.
The RCF documentation contains a springing financial covenant based
on senior secured net leverage set at 7.52x, tested on a quarterly
basis when the RCF is drawn by more than 40%. A breach only
triggers a drawstop and not an event of default. Moody's expects
Cirsa to maintain a good buffer under this covenant.
Cirsa's next significant debt maturity within the backed senior
secured notes' restricted group is in July 2028, when its EUR375
million backed senior secured notes mature.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
Cirsa's Ba3-PD PDR is in line with the CFR, reflecting Moody's
assumptions of a 50% recovery rate, as is customary for capital
structures that include notes and bank debt. The backed senior
secured notes are rated Ba3, in line with the CFR, given they
represent most of the company's financial debt. There is also an
amount of bank debt at the operating company level, as well as a
super senior RCF, which ranks ahead of the senior secured notes.
However, the RCF is not material enough to drive notching on the
ratings of the senior secured notes.
RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Cirsa will
continue to record steady revenue and EBITDA growth which will
drive an improvement in credit metrics improvement including
continued reduction in leverage. In addition, Moody's expects that
its cash flow generation will remain strong even after accounting
for dividend payments.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Upward pressure on the ratings could develop if the company
continues to report strong and stable revenue growth and
sustainable EBITDA margins driven by a growing online segment,
combined with growth in land-based activities, such that its
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage reduces sustainably below 2.5x; its
Moody's-adjusted FCF remains strong and the company maintains good
liquidity. An upgrade would also require that the company continue
to build a good track record of adhering to its new financial
policy.
Negative rating pressures on Cirsa's ratings could develop if the
company's operating and financial performance weaken; or in case of
regulatory or fiscal evolutions with the potential to materially
impact the group's revenue or profitability; if its
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage increases above 3.5x; its
Moody's-adjusted FCF or its liquidity deteriorates.
This rating action reflects Moody's baseline expectation of a
contained impact on energy markets despite ongoing oil supply
disruption, and limited damage to production or infrastructure.
However, Cirsa remains exposed to macro-financial conditions under
a more adverse conflict scenario through the energy supply chains
transmission channel.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Gaming
published in September 2025.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Cirsa was founded in 1978 following the liberalisation of the
Spanish private gaming market. Headquartered in Terrassa, Spain,
Cirsa is an international gaming operator. The company is present
in nine countries where it has market-leading positions: Spain and
Italy in Europe; Panama, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Costa Rica and the
Dominican Republic in Latin America; and Morocco in Africa. Cirsa
operates casinos, slot machines, bingo halls and betting locations,
and also offers online gaming and betting services. In 2025, the
company reported net revenue of around EUR2.3 billion and
company-adjusted EBITDA of EUR747 million.
===========
T U R K E Y
===========
GURMAT ELEKTRIK: Fitch Rates USD380MM USD Secured Notes 'B+'
------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Gurmat Elektrik Uretim A.S.'s issue of
USD380 million US dollar-denominated senior secured notes a
long-term issuance rating of 'B+'.
The 'B+' rating reflects Gürmat's financial profile, driven by
increasing exposure to merchant electricity prices and geothermal
resource-driven generation variability. Resource risk is partly
mitigated by a clearly defined top-up drilling programme supported
by a fully funded, onshore-secured major maintenance reserve
account (MMRA), although long-term effectiveness remains a major
risk.
Fitch views debt service coverage ratios (DSCR) as key metrics to
evaluate the resilience of the project. Under Fitch's rating case,
the average and minimum DSCRs are 1.30x and 1.20x, respectively.
Fitch views counterparty risk as systemic, not bilateral, as
payments depend on EPİAŞ - Enerji Piyasaları İşletme A.Ş.'s
centralised market, the regulatory cost-sharing framework, and
ultimate pass-through of costs to end-consumers.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Operation Risk: Midrange
In-house Operations; Proven Record
Gürmat's operations are supported by long-standing in-house
delivery, experienced technical management, and broadly embedded
original equipment manufacturer (OEM) support, together delivering
consistently high availability of the portfolio's geothermal
assets. Exworks provides only administrative and staffing support,
with no technical authority, operational responsibility or
performance risk. OEMs handle preventive and corrective maintenance
and supply parts for equipment requiring specialist support.
Flexibility in scheduling major maintenance works and dedicated
MMRA for top-up wells, alongside well-managed spare parts, help
manage cost variability. In Fitch's view, the absence of a
fixed-price, full-scope operations and maintenance contract and the
limited contractual performance incentives shift cost and
performance responsibility onto Gürmat, but performance and costs
risks are mitigated by its demonstrated availability and
disciplined maintenance practices.
Revenue Risk - Volume: Midrange
Resource-Driven Generation Variability
The geothermal portfolio's volume risk is primarily linked to
resource/steam-side performance. Gürmat's generation has
historically closely tracked installed capacity, but total output
fell between 2022 and 2025, with a sharper downturn at certain
dual-flash units. The technical advisor's findings indicate
availability remains high and conversion efficiency has been
broadly stable, implying the recent capacity factor weakening is
more likely driven by reservoir behaviour than by equipment
reliability.
This risk is partly mitigated by management's plan to drill top-up
wells to support output. Two production wells have already been
drilled and are ready for commissioning, and the remaining wells
are scheduled to be drilled within one year under a clearly defined
commissioning timetable. However, the timing and long-term
effectiveness of these interventions remain key risks.
Curtailment-related volume risk appears low with no reported
curtailment events and sufficient grid connection capacity, meaning
revenue should largely reflect resource performance rather than
dispatch constraints.
Revenue Risk - Price: Weaker
Transition to Merchant Price Exposure
The portfolio's revenue profile is transitioning to increasingly
merchant revenue from predominantly regulatory fixed tariff-backed
as tariffs expire. During the remaining YEKDEM periods for Efe
VI-VIII, US dollar-indexed tariffs provide predictable cash flows
per MWh and reduce sensitivity to EPİAŞ day-ahead price
volatility. Once these protections lapse (end-2027, end-2028,
end-2031), output will be fully sold at market prices, heightening
exposure to hourly price volatility, regulatory interventions, and
FX movements given the lira-denominated settlements.
Consequently, the revenue risk profile is increasingly driven by
day-ahead market price fundamentals, gas input costs and BOTAŞ
tariffs, electricity demand growth, and potential policy actions,
which can compress margins in low-price periods and amplify
volatility absent hedging or fixed-price contracted offtake.
Debt Structure: Midrange
Fixed-Rate, Fully Amortising; FX Mismatch
The debt structure comprises a single tranche of senior secured
project bonds. The notes are fixed rate and fully amortise over
nine years, with semi-annual US dollar payments. They benefit from
a robust security package, including first-ranking pledges over
shares, accounts, movables and mortgages over immovables assets and
operation license, and collateral assignments of receivables
(including EPİAŞ market receivables). The covenant package is
strong, featuring minimum actual and projected DSCR tests of 1.10x
and a distribution lock-up DSCR trigger at 1.30x, alongside other
covenants typical of a project finance transaction.
Liquidity is provided by a six-month debt service reserve account
(DSRA), cash-funded at closing and secured offshore, a minimum cash
balance of USD10 million and a cash-funded secured MMRA of about
USD24 million. The issuer faces a FX mismatch as US
dollar-denominated debt service is increasingly supported by
lira-denominated spot sales following the YEKDEM tariff roll-off.
This risk is partly mitigated by the inherent linkage between
Turkish electricity prices and the US dollar, reflecting the US
dollar-influenced cost structure of marginal power plants that set
the market-clearing price, absent political intervention that could
decouple prices from the exchange rate.
EPİAŞ settlement mechanics introduces variability between Turkish
lira collections and US dollar-indexed tariffs, which could
pressure margins and debt service capacity, particularly when the
Turkish lira depreciates between the timing of daily advance
payments and the monthly settlement conversion. Overall, the
company is exposed to FX movements for roughly 45 days on its
YEKDEM receivables.
Peer Analysis
The closest geothermal peers in Fitch's portfolio are Star Energy
Geothermal (Salak-Darajat) Restricted Group (SEGSD RG; BBB-/Stable)
and Star Energy Geothermal (Wayang Windu) Ltd. (SEGWW; BB/Stable),
both in Indonesia. A key differentiator versus Gürmat is the
absence of merchant exposure: both Indonesian issuers benefit from
fully contracted volumes under long-term (beyond the debt tenor),
US dollar-denominated, take-or-pay energy sales contracts with the
Indonesian state-owned power company, which mitigates inflation and
FX risks. For Gürmat, merchant exposure increases gradually, with
the portfolio becoming fully merchant in 2031. All three issuers
rely on top-up drilling to maintain steam supply and electricity
generation.
Fitch assesses operating risk for Gürmat at 'Midrange' and for the
Indonesian issuers at 'Weaker'. All three benefit from historically
strong availability and experienced management. Gürmat is
supported by an MMRA sized to fund the full top-up drilling
programme, funded and secured in an onshore account, whereas the
Indonesian MMRAs provide more limited funding.
All three debt structures are amortising. Gürmat has a more
conservative distribution lock-up ratio of 1.30x, compared with
1.15x for SEGSD RG and 1.10x for SEGWW. Gürmat and SEGWW have
six-month DSRAs, while SEGSD RG benefits from a 12-month DSRA.
However, SEGSD RG's security package excludes the generation
assets.
Gürmat has lower projected average DSCRs of 1.30x and 1.20x,
respectively, compared with SEGSD RG's 2.42x and 1.66x and SEGWW's
1.41x and 1.13x. Together with Gürmat's increasing merchant
exposure, this explains the rating differential.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- The projected DSCR under Fitch's rating case consistently falling
below 1.20x, with the threshold progressively increasing to 1.25x
by 2032 to reflect the project's growing exposure to merchant
revenue over the life of the debt.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- The projected DSCR under Fitch's rating case consistently rising
above 1.30x, with the threshold progressively increasing to 1.40x
by 2032 to reflect the project's growing exposure to merchant
revenue over the life of the debt.
Financial Profile
Under Fitch's base case, the annual DSCR averages 1.50x over
2026-2035 with a minimum DSCR of 1.41x. The average and minimum
DSCRs are 1.30x and 1.20x, respectively, under Fitch's rating
case.
TRANSACTION SUMMARY
Gürmat has issued a USD380 million (10.748% coupon) fully
amortising senior secured project bond. The bond benefits from a
full project finance-style security package and day-one,
cash-funded DSRA and MMRA. Proceeds are used to refinance Gürmat's
existing senior secured bank debt, fund the reserve accounts
required under the notes, pay transaction costs, distribute a
one-time payment to Mogan Energi and repay a shareholder loan, and
for general corporate purposes. The bond has a legal tenor of nine
years.
SECURITY
Project finance-style security package, includes: a first-ranking
pledge over 100% of the issuer's shares, first-ranking security
over key offshore and onshore bank accounts (including the DSRA,
disbursement account and MMRA), first-ranking security interests
over movable and immovable assets (including a first-degree
mortgage and mortgage over the operation license), and collateral
assignments of present and future receivables, including EPİAŞ
market receivables, subordinated shareholder-related receivables,
and insurance/reinsurance receivables.
Date of Relevant Committee
May 1, 2026
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
ABSOLUTE POST: Oury Clark Appointed as Administrator
----------------------------------------------------
Absolute Post Limited was placed into administration in the High
Court of Justice, Court Number CR-2026-003729. Nick Parsk of Oury
Clark Chartered Accountants was appointed as Administrator on May
14, 2026.
The company specialized in motion picture production activities.
Its registered office and principal trading address is 19-21
Mortimer Street, London, W1T 3JE.
The Administrator can be contacted at:
Nick Parsk
Oury Clark Chartered Accountants
Herschel House
58 Herschel Street
Slough
Berkshire SL1 1PG
Further information:
Alternative contact: Henry Everitt
Tel: 01753 551111
Email: absolute@ouryclark.com
Contact: The Administrator
BORR IHC: Moody's Rates Secured Notes Due 2032/2034 'B3'
--------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned a B3 rating to the announced backed
senior secured note issuances due 2032 and 2034 of Borr IHC
Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Borr Drilling Limited (Borr).
The rest of Borr's existing ratings, including its B3 corporate
family rating and B3-PD probability of default rating are
unaffected. The outlook on both entities remains unaffected at
stable.
Gross issuance proceeds of around $1.6 billion will refinance the
existing backed senior secured notes due 2028 in full, alongside a
portion of the backed senior secured notes due 2030 as well as
transaction fees and costs.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The B3 rating assigned to Borr IHC Limited's proposed notes is in
line with the company's CFR, reflecting the single debtor class in
the capital structure.
Borr's contemplated transaction is credit positive: it extends debt
maturities and moderately reduces both the interest burden and
annual mandatory debt amortisation, improving liquidity. Although
Moody's-adjusted gross debt to EBITDA of 4.6x (pro forma and
excluding the Noble seller credit) for the twelve months ended
March 31, 2026 remains high for the rating, Moody's projects it to
decline in the next 12 months on the back of stronger offshore
drilling market conditions.
Borr's B3 CFR continues to reflect the company's: large fleet,
premium rig quality and global operational footprint. Concurrently,
it reflects Borr's exposure to highly cyclical offshore drilling
expenditure, inherent re-contracting risks and appetite for
debt-funded rig acquisitions denoting tolerance for high leverage.
The B3 rating assigned to Borr is two notches below the
scorecard-indicated outcome, reflecting the indirect exposure to
highly volatile hydrocarbon prices and cyclical nature of offshore
drilling activities, somewhat still limited revenue visibility,
high absolute levels of debt carried on the balance sheet and still
limited track record of abiding by stated financial policy
commitments.
LIQUIDITY
Borr's liquidity is adequate. Moody's assessment reflects:
-- Strengthening positive FCF generation from 2026 onwards
-- Access to a new $250 million committed undrawn super senior
revolving credit facility and unrestricted cash balances of $246
million at March 31, 2026 that jointly provide sources of liquidity
that are commensurate with business needs
-- Compliance with applicable covenants
-- Extended debt maturity profile following the announced
transaction and the convertible bond refinancing executed in April
2026
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
Borr's pro forma capital structure includes $1,986 million of
senior secured notes, $250 million of commitments under the
revolving lines (respectively, issued and borrowed by Borr IHC
Limited), a $44 million senior unsecured convertible bond due 2028
and a $300 million senior unsecured convertible bond due May 2033
(issued by Borr Drilling Limited).
The $250 million RCF ranks ahead of the notes, given their super
senior status. The senior secured notes are rated in line with the
CFR at B3 because the instrument represents the majority of the
capital structure. The convertible bond ranks behind the senior
secured notes, given its status as unsecured and unguaranteed
liability subject to structural subordination.
Moody's factors in potential cash leakages associated with three
rigs currently sitting outside the restricted group for the rated
debt facilities. Should these rigs either remain uncontracted or
not generate sufficient cash to cover for their operational and
capital expenditure, then there will be a drag on the restricted
group's financial performance. A $150 million vendor loan also sits
outside the restricted group. Moody's excludes the vendor loan from
the computation of Moody's metrics, but consider the risk of it
potentially being refinanced with additional debt raised within the
restricted group in the future.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations of a near-term
slight deterioration in Borr's key credit metrics as a result of
the Noble rigs' acquisition and the somewhat uncertain fleet
re-contracting prospects. The stable outlook also reflects the
expectation that Borr will balance the interests of shareholders
and creditors. Any additional debt-funded acquisitions, shareholder
distributions or deterioration in backlog would put pressure on the
stable outlook.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Borr's ratings could be upgraded as a result of:
-- Material reduction in gross debt from current levels so that
its credit metrics are less sensitive to a deterioration in
financial performance
-- Sustained high fleet utilisation, growing revenue backlog and
visibility in an improving industry environment
-- Moody's-Adjusted Debt / EBITDA sustainedly below 3.5x and
-- Longer track record of adhering to the stated financial policy,
and
-- Achievement and maintenance of a strong liquidity position
Conversely, Borr's ratings could be downgraded following:
-- Difficulty in re-contracting rigs or new contracts are signed
at significantly lower day-rates
-- Sustained negative free cash flow generation, for instance as a
result of a deterioration in operating performance or aggressive
financial policies
-- Moody's-Adjusted Debt / EBITDA sustainedly above 4.5x
-- Interest coverage falling below 1.5x, or
-- Weakening liquidity
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Oilfield
Services published in October 2025.
PROFILE
Borr provides worldwide offshore contract drilling services to the
oil and gas industry. It owns and operates a modern fleet of 29
jack-up rigs. Borr generated revenue of $1,051 million and
Moody's-Adjusted EBITDA of $478 million in the twelve months ending
March 31, 2026.
Operational since 2018, the company is listed on the New York and
Oslo stock exchanges. Borr had a market capitalisation of around
$2.0 billion at the date of this publication.
CASTELL 2025-1: S&P Affirms 'B+(sf)' Rating on Class F-Dfrd Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings raised and removed from CreditWatch positive its
credit ratings on Castell 2025-1 PLC's class B-Dfrd notes to 'AA+
(sf)' from 'AA (sf)', C-Dfrd notes to 'AA (sf)' from 'A (sf)',
D-Dfrd notes to 'A (sf)' from 'BBB (sf)', E-Dfrd notes to 'BB+
(sf)' from 'BB (sf)', and X1-Dfrd notes to 'BBB+ (sf)' from 'B
(sf)'. At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'AAA (sf)' and 'B+ (sf)'
ratings on the class A and F-Dfrd notes, respectively.
S&P said, "The rating actions follow the placement of 119 U.K. RMBS
ratings on CreditWatch due to the implementation of updates to our
U.K. sector and industry variables under our global RMBS criteria.
They also reflect our full analysis of the most recent transaction
information and the transaction's current structural features.
"The performance of the loans in the collateral pool has slightly
deteriorated since closing. Based on our calculation methodology,
total arrears increased to 2.67% in February 2026, of which 1.46%
is 30-90 days arrears, from 1.25% at closing. There have been no
losses since closing.
"After applying our updated sector and industry variables, the
overall effect in our credit analysis resulted in a decrease in the
weighted-average foreclosure frequency (WAFF) due to lower anchor
default probabilities, lower loan-to-value adjustment, lower income
adjustment, lower payment shock adjustment, the lower loan purpose
adjustment and lower second-lien adjustment.
"Our weighted-average loss severities (WALS) have decreased at all
rating levels, primarily driven by our lower overvaluation
assessment for London and the southeast."
Table 1
Credit analysis results
Rating level WAFF (%) WALS (%) Credit coverage (%)
AAA 18.26 80.48 14.69
AA 12.60 75.41 9.50
A 9.69 64.64 6.27
BBB 6.94 56.38 3.91
BB 4.03 49.35 1.99
B 3.34 42.08 1.41
WAFF--Weighted-average foreclosure frequency.
WALS--Weighted-average loss severity.
The liquidity reserve is at its target level of GBP2,326,031.
Excess spread is 2.70% based on S&P's calculation, which considers
stressed servicing fees.
Considering the limited time since closing and the transaction's
prefunding feature, the pool factor represents 96.86% of the
closing pool balance. The transaction's sequential priority of
payments and the notes' amortization have increased the available
credit enhancement for the class A to F-Dfrd notes.
S&P said, "We affirmed our ratings on the class A and F-Dfrd notes
because our credit and cash flow results indicate their available
credit enhancement remains commensurate with the assigned ratings.
"Although the class B-Dfrd, C-Dfrd, D-Dfrd, E-Dfrd, and X1-Dfrd
notes passed cash flow stresses at higher rating levels than those
assigned, we considered the deferrable nature of the notes, the
increasing arrears, the relative levels of subordination, and the
current uncertain macroeconomic environment. We therefore limited
our upgrades of these classes of notes and removed these ratings
from CreditWatch positive.
"Counterparty risk does not constrain the ratings as we consider
the transaction to be in line with our counterparty criteria."
Macroeconomic forecasts and forward-looking analysis
S&P said, "We expect U.K. inflation to remain above the Bank of
England's 2% target in 2026, and we forecast a 2.6% year-on-year
change in house prices in Q4 2026. Given our current macroeconomic
forecasts and forward-looking view of the U.K. residential mortgage
market, we performed additional sensitivities relating to higher
default levels due to increased arrears and extended recovery
timings. The sensitivity analysis results indicate a deterioration
consistent with our credit stability considerations in our rating
definitions."
The transaction is backed by a pool of second-lien, owner-occupied
mortgage loans secured on properties in England, Scotland, and
Wales.
DIONE BIDCO: Fitch Gives BB- Rating to EUR500MM Term Loan B
-----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Dione Bidco's (LRQA; B+/Stable) EUR500
million term loan B (TLB) due 2032 a final 'BB-' rating with a
Recovery Rating of 'RR3'. The final rating is in line with the
expected 'BB-(EXP)' rating assigned at launch, as the terms are
largely aligned with Fitch's expectations.
LRQA's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) is supported by a
robust business model, with recurring revenue tied to multi-year
audit cycles and cross-selling opportunities, low customer churn
and high barriers to entry. Material cost transformation, mostly in
2026/2027, is improving profitability and should support organic
deleveraging, while execution risk remains moderate. This is
counterbalanced by moderate existing leverage and limited scale as
a main constraining credit factor.
The Stable Outlook reflects the group's ability to sustain
profitable growth globally while maintaining a leverage profile
anchoring the rating at 'B+', subject to conservative financial
discipline and successful M&A integration.
Key Rating Drivers
Strong Market Position: LRQA has an about 3% share of the global
risk management market (3% in certification, 6% in inspection and
3% in advisory). It has a stronger presence in selected niches,
such as UK and Ireland certification and inspection service and
EMEA inspection services. LRQA serves a well-diversified customer
base spanning global corporations, national champions and SMEs, but
its main focus is on multinational clients with more complex
requirements due to their global reach, process complexity and high
regulatory compliance standards.
Improved Profitability: Fitch expects the Fitch-defined EBITDA
margin (13.6% in 2025) to improve by 250bp to 16.1% by end-2027,
driven by cost savings - mostly staff reductions and efficiency
improvements that increase auditor utilisation rates and streamline
processes through AI optimisation tools. Fitch views execution risk
as moderate. Profitability is below best-in-class industry margins
of 20%-35%, but is supported by inelastic demand, with proven
inflation pass-through capacity and a flexible cost structure.
Fitch expects EBITDA leverage (Fitch-defined) below 5.0x by 2027
under its rating case, assuming conservative capital allocation.
For more information on LRQA's Key Rating Drivers see "Fitch
Assigns Dione Bidco 'B+' IDR and New TLB 'BB-(EXP)'/'RR3'"
published 2 March 2026.
Peer Analysis
Fitch compares LRQA with other broader global and regional services
peers in the 'B' category with high visibility of recurring
revenue.
LRQA business size is comparable with Transcom Holding AB
(B-/Stable), a global customer services provider, but smaller than
UK-based food services and hospitality service provider CD&R and
WSH Limited (WSH; B+/Stable). WSH benefits from long-term contracts
with recurring revenue, which is partly offset by LRQA's stronger
profitability and deleveraging capacity.
LRQA's profitability is broadly similar to larger, but regional TIC
services provider Amber Holdco Limited (Applus; B+/Stable), despite
being materially smaller and less diversified. Applus has slightly
higher debt capacity, supported by its exclusive concession for
mandatory vehicle inspections in Spain, which provides strong
long-term revenue visibility.
UK-based printed and digital communication services provider PCC
Global Plc (B/Stable) focuses on niche segments in the financial
sector and blue-chip regulated businesses. It has higher leverage
and lower profitability than LRQA and material concentration in the
UK, which explains the one notch difference.
PeopleCert Wisdom Limited (B+/Negative) is a leading professional
and language certification provider in the UK, with high customer
diversification and strong profitability margins. LRQA and
PeopleCert are broadly comparable in terms of EBITDA and leverage,
but PeopleCert has demonstrated best-in-class profitability with
EBITDA margins of around 30%.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- Annual revenue growth of 12% in 2026 and 8.0% to 8.9% between
2027 and 2029
- Fitch-defined EBITDA margin to reach 13.6% in 2025, improving
toward 16.7% in 2029
- Working capital outflows of 1.6% of revenue in 2025 and -0.5% of
revenue in 2026-2029
- Capex at 0.8%-0.9% of revenue during 2025-2029
- GBP20 million of M&A annually from 2026 to 2029
- Up to GBP70 million of one-off dividends in 2026 (if no M&A
signed), then no dividends or shareholder remuneration between 2026
and 2029
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): management ('b+', Moderate), sector characteristics
('bbb-', Lower), market and competitive positioning ('b+', Higher),
diversification and asset quality ('bbb-', Moderate), company
operational characteristics ('bb+', Moderate), profitability
('bbb+', Lower), financial structure ('b', Higher), and financial
flexibility ('b', Moderate).
The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 20% weight for the forecast year 2025,
40% for the forecast year 2026 and 40% for the forecast year 2027.
B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and has no impact.
The governance assessment of 'some deficiencies' has no impact.
The operating environment assessment of 'a' has no impact.
The SCP is 'b+'.
To derive the Long-Term IDR:
Fitch made no adjustments to the SCP, resulting in an IDR of 'B+'.
Recovery Analysis
The recovery analysis assumes that LRQA would be reorganised as a
going-concern in bankruptcy rather than liquidated.
The going concern EBITDA estimate of GBP55 million reflects Fitch's
view of a sustainable, post-reorganisation EBITDA level on which it
bases the enterprise value. In such a scenario, stress on EBITDA
would most likely result from operational underperformance,
reputational damages with contract losses, or major M&A integration
issues having a negative effect on profitability.
Fitch applies an enterprise value multiple of 5.5x EBITDA to the
going concern EBITDA to calculate a post-reorganisation enterprise
value. The multiple results from low customer churn, global stable
demand for LRQA's services and highly recurring revenues.
Its recovery calculations include LRQA's TLB for the sterling
equivalent of EUR500 million. The capital structure also includes a
committed GBP75 million revolving credit facility (RCF), which
Fitch assumes would be fully drawn upon in a default. Its debt
waterfall analysis, after deducting 10% for administrative claims,
generates a ranked recovery in the 'RR3' band for the senior
secured creditors, resulting in a debt rating of 'BB-' for the
first-lien TLB.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Operational underperformance affecting growth and profitability,
or weak M&A integration, or an appetite for material debt-funded
M&A
- EBITDA leverage sustained above 5.5x
- EBITDA interest coverage sustained below 3.0x
- Free cash flow (FCF) margin in the low single digits or trending
to neutral reducing liquidity headroom
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Successful expansion strategy that increases scale and
diversification, captures material market share in higher- growth
markets, and improves profitability in line with high-end peers
while maintaining conservative financial discipline
- EBITDA leverage sustained below 4.5x
- FCF margin sustained in the high single digits
- EBITDA interest coverage sustained above 4.0x
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Liquidity after the transaction is comfortable based on closing
cash on balance sheet of GBP26 million and a fully undrawn GBP75
million RCF. Fitch expects liquidity to remain strong over the next
three years. This is based on high cash flow generation with FCF to
sales margins of at least 6%, and average cash on balance sheet
greater than GBP25 million, after assuming bolt-on acquisitions of
GBP100 million in aggregate through to 2030.
The debt maturity profile is manageable, with the EUR500 million
TLB due in December 2032.
Issuer Profile
LRQA provides global risk management services across certification,
assessment, advisory, inspection and cybersecurity, underpinned by
multiple accreditations and data insights.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for Dione Bidco Limited.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Dione Bidco Limited
senior secured LT BB- New Rating RR3 BB-(EXP)
RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE 33: Fitch Affirms CCCsf Rating on Cl. F Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Residential Mortgage Securities 33 PLC's
(RMS 33) class B notes and affirmed the others, as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Residential Mortgage
Securities 33 PLC
Class A XS2835000121 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class B XS2835002689 LT AA+sf Upgrade AAsf
Class C XS2835002846 LT A-sf Affirmed A-sf
Class D XS2835003224 LT BBB-sf Affirmed BBB-sf
Class E XS2835003653 LT Bsf Affirmed Bsf
Class F XS2835003810 LT CCCsf Affirmed CCCsf
Transaction Summary
The transaction is a securitisation of non-prime owner-occupied and
buy-to-let (BTL) mortgages backed by properties in the UK. The
mortgages were primarily originated by Kensington Mortgage Company,
London Mortgage Company and Money Partners Limited. The transaction
is a refinancing of Residential Mortgage Securities 32 PLC, which
was issued in 2020.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
BTL Recovery Rate Cap: The transaction has reported losses that
exceed those implied by the indexed property values in the
underlying pools. Fitch has therefore applied borrower-level
recovery rate (RR) caps to the BTL loans, in line with those
applied to non-conforming loans: 85% at 'Bsf' and 65% at 'AAAsf'.
Transaction Adjustment: Fitch applied its non-conforming
assumptions, including an owner-occupied adjustment of 1.0x and a
buy-to-let adjustment of 1.5x to foreclosure frequency (FF). Fitch
would not typically apply an owner-occupied adjustment above 1.0x
to UK non-conforming portfolios, as underperformance is generally
captured through a late-stage arrears adjustment. The BTL
adjustment reflects the weaker historical performance of loans more
than three months in arrears for this transaction relative to
Fitch's non-conforming index.
Arrears Stable but Remain High: The proportion of new loans
entering arrears has generally stabilised since the last review a
year ago but remains high compared with the Fitch index. Arrears
greater than both one month and three months have stabilised at
33.2% and 27.0%, respectively.
Fitch's analysis assumes that loans more than 12 months in arrears
are defaulted loans for the purpose of its asset and cash flow
modelling. The proportion of defaulted loans has increased since
the last review to 21.2% from 17.5%. This has been driven by the
continued prepayment of performing collateral and arrears migrating
into later stages. Fitch expects the continued migration of arrears
into later stages to constrain model-implied ratings at this level.
The increased proportion of defaults, combined with the limited
subordination available to the class E notes, drives their
affirmation below the model-implied rating.
Increasing CE: Credit enhancement (CE) has increased since closing,
due to the sequential amortisation of the notes and the
transaction's static general reserve fund. CE for the class B notes
had risen to 26.7% as of March 2026 from 21.0% at closing. The
build-up of CE somewhat offsets the high arrears and supports the
upgrade of the class B notes.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The transaction's performance may be affected by changes in market
conditions and economic environment. Weakening economic performance
is strongly correlated to increasing levels of delinquencies and
defaults that could reduce CE available to the notes.
In addition, unanticipated declines in recoveries could result in
lower net proceeds, which may make certain notes susceptible to
negative rating action depending on the extent of the decline in
recoveries. Fitch found that a 15% increase in the weighted average
(WA) FF and a 15% decrease in the WARR indicate downgrades of up to
one notch for the class A notes, three notches for the class B
notes and up to four notches for the class C, D and E notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stable to improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies
and defaults would lead to increasing CE and potentially upgrades.
Fitch tested an additional rating sensitivity scenario by applying
a 15% decrease in the WAFF and a 15% increase in the WARR. This
would imply upgrades of up to four notches for the class C to E
notes and up to five notches for the class F notes. The class A and
B notes' ratings would be unchanged.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Prior to the transaction closing, Fitch sought to receive a third
party assessment conducted on the asset portfolio information, but
none was available for this transaction.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
RMS 33 has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Customer Welfare -
Fair Messaging, Privacy & Data Security due to high proportion of
interest only legacy OO mortgages, which has a negative impact on
the credit profile, and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction
with other factors.
RMS 33 has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Human Rights,
Community Relations, Access & Affordability due to a large
proportion of the pool consisting of OO loans advanced with limited
affordability checks, which has a negative impact on the credit
profile, and is relevant to the rating[s] in conjunction with other
factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
ULIVING@ESSEX3: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'B', On Watch Negative
------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its S&P Underlying Rating (SPUR) on
Uliving@Essex Issuerco PLC (Essex1) to 'B' from 'BB-'. S&P placed
its 'B-' SPUR on Essex1 on CreditWatch with negative implications,
indicating that S&P could lower it to the 'CCC' category in the
next three months if the project fails to support its draining
liquidity reserves. It also affirmed its 'B-' SPUR on Essex2.
The negative outlook on Essex2 and Essex3 indicates that their
financials and liquidity remain at risk of further deterioration in
the next 6-12 months, given the declining student demand at UoE and
intense rental competition in Colchester.
S&P affirmed its 'AA' issue ratings on the senior secured issuance
guaranteed by Assured Guaranty U.K. Ltd. and Assured Guaranty Inc.
(collectively Assured Guaranty) for all three projects. The stable
outlook reflects Assured Guaranty's unconditional and irrevocable
payment guarantee of scheduled interest and principal.
Uliving@Essex Issuerco PLC (Essex1)
In February 2012, U.K.-based limited-purpose entity Essex1 issued
GBP98.2 million rated senior secured index-linked fully amortizing
bonds, due Aug. 31, 2058. The proceeds were on-lent to
Uliving@Essex Ltd. to refinance its existing long-term senior debt
and distribute refinancing gains to shareholders and UoE, the main
project counterparty.
Essex1 was established in 2012 to construct and refurbish student
accommodation facilities at UoE. Construction was completed in 2013
by Bouygues (U.K.) Ltd. and includes a 649-bedroom accommodation
block, The Meadows, and a 780-bedroom refurbished accommodation
block, The Quays.
The project is backed by a 50-year agreement with UoE that runs
until 2063. UoE owns the land on which the assets are located and
leases it to Uliving@Essex Ltd. under a headlease until July 2063,
with an option to extend for a further 75 years. Essex1 leases the
accommodation blocks back to the university under a mirror-dated
underlease, in return for receipt of a fixed inflation-linked lease
payment based on student occupancy of the facilities.
Uliving@Essex2 Issuerco PLC (Essex2)
In May 2017, U.K.-based limited-purpose entity Essex2 issued
GBP60.6 million rated senior secured fully amortizing index-linked
bonds, due Aug. 31, 2063.
The proceeds were on-lent to ULiving@Essex2 Ltd. to finance the
design and construction of a 643-bedroom student accommodation
facility for UoE, known as The Meadows Phase 2A. The project
comprises two seven-story buildings on the university's Colchester
campus, approximately five kilometers from Colchester town center,
and located adjacent to UoE's accommodation facilities The Quays
and The Meadows.
The project is backed by a 50-year project agreement with UoE.
Under the project agreement, Essex2 receives an annual
inflation-linked lease fee from UoE, the level of which depends on
the number of available rooms reserved for use by UoE for the
academic year.
Construction was completed in September 2018 by Bouygues (U.K.f)
Ltd. Essex2 passes down the risk of facilities management (FM) to
Derwent HA. Essex2 retains life cycle risk.
Uliving@Essex3 LLP (Essex3)
In August 2021, U.K.-based limited-purpose entity Essex3 issued
GBP65 million senior secured 2.72% fixed-rate bonds and GBP48.371
million senior secured 0.10% bonds linked to the retail price index
(RPI), due Aug. 31, 2066.
The proceeds were used to finance the design, construction, and
operation of a 1,262-room student accommodation across five
separate blocks on UoE's main campus outside Colchester. The
accommodation project is governed by a 50-year project agreement
that allows UoE to reserve rooms each academic year. Construction
was completed on Aug. 25, 2023. This accommodation complements the
existing 4,755 rooms offered on campus and is located adjacent to
the most recently constructed accommodation on the northwest side
of the campus.
Essex3 has subcontracted hard and soft FM services to Bouygues E&S
Solutions Ltd. under a fixed-price, index-linked contract. Essex3
retains major maintenance (life cycle) risk. UoE markets and
allocates the rooms on behalf of the project on an equal basis to
its own on-campus accommodation. If rooms are reserved, UoE will
assume credit and void risk and retain 3% of the rental income in
exchange.
S&P said, "We expect falling student demand at UoE to continue to
weigh heavily on occupancy levels at all three Essex accommodation
projects. Current rating pressure is primarily driven by continued
uncertainty over future occupancy levels of international and
domestic students. We believe UoE -- a mid-ranking non-Russell
Group university -- is exposed to increased reputational risk as a
result of being placed on the UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI)
action plan since July 2025. This, in addition to ongoing pressure
from the U.K. government's shift to a more restrictive immigration
policy, will materially weigh on international student numbers. We
also view Russell Group universities' strategy of increasing share
of domestic students over the medium term as another key
contributing factor to domestic student demand. In recent years
these demand-side obstacles have resulted in lower student numbers
at UoE, which the university anticipates will be about 10,600 in
academic year 2025-2026. This represents a 36% decline from the
2022-2023 peak, in contrast to UoE's previous expectations of
continued student number growth.
"While we understand that UoE has taken significant measures to
comply with UKVI regulations and rebuild market confidence, how
these actions will help stabilize future student numbers remains to
be seen. We expect student numbers at UoE to stabilize at about
10,000-10,500 over the next two-to-three years, with the
international student share dropping to 30% from 40% in academic
year 2022-2023. We expect this volatile environment to materially
weigh on the already stressed student enrollment for the upcoming
2026-2027 academic year, subsequently affecting occupancy levels at
all three accommodation sites for at least the next two-to-three
years. Given the very low nominations for the next academic year,
all three Essex projects face significant short-term occupancy
risks.
"We understand Essex 1, 2, and 3 face heightened price competition
in Colchester, due to accommodation oversupply amid falling student
numbers. Following consultations with independent market experts,
the projects revised their accommodation rental pricing to better
align with asset age and type. Under this recalibration, Essex1
offers the most competitive rates at a weighted average of GBP184.5
per week, followed by Essex2 at GBP203.0, and Essex3 at GBP204.0.
We believe this measure could attract returning students who
previously opted for private rentals (GBP120-GBP250 per week) due
to the high cost of on-campus accommodation. We believe this could
partially help Essex1 become price competitive compared to Essex2
and Essex3, assuming student numbers stabilize over 2027-2029.
There is much uncertainty as to whether this will mean more
occupancy in the upcoming 2026-2027 academic year. The majority of
domestic students (who make up 70% of the total) attend the
university without living on campus, instead either at home or in
off-campus rentals, which make up an additional 2,000 rooms. This
means on-campus accommodations need to adjust their pricing
strategy to compete with off-campus options. In contrast, Essex1,
2, and 3 have to balance their pricing and discount strategy with
inflation-linked debt and have less flexibility in price
adjustments. We also understand that in addition to pricing
adjustments, the projects' management continues to explore other
revenue options, such as housing non-students (e.g., social housing
or critical sector workers in the NHS or defense sector. This,
however, remains highly speculative and would require additional
approvals.
"We believe Essex1 could become vulnerable to nonpayment of its
senior debt obligations in the next five years if it fails to
secure additional revenue through higher occupancy or alternative
uses for its accommodations. We believe that for Essex1, the 48%
occupancy rate for the current 2025-2026 academic year has resulted
in negative cash flow, which we expect will necessitate a 30%
drawdown of its current debt service reserve account (DSRA) balance
for the upcoming August 2026 debt payment. Consequently, any
measure to support future revenue streams through higher student
occupancy or third-party arrangements is critical for Essex1 to
sustain its creditworthiness. As a result, we have placed the
rating on CreditWatch with negative implications.
"The downgrade of Essex3 to 'B' from 'BB-' reflects its materially
weaker financials, with the risk of DSCRs falling below 1x for
longer than previously anticipated. In addition to pressures from
lower UoE student numbers and competition with off-campus
accommodation, we also see the risk that Essex3 may lose market
share if Essex1 and Essex2 offer more competitive rates than in
past academic years. We now expect Essex3 to achieve occupancy near
70%-75% by 2030 (compared to 75%-80% previously). However, we still
expect it to reach a long-term level of 82% post-2030, in line with
past assumptions owing to its newer and relatively attractive
facilities. With this lower occupancy forecast, we now expect
Essex3 to achieve DSCRs below 1x (with a minimum of 0.81x) until at
least 2030 compared to just 12 months as per our previous
estimates. As a result, we expect Essex3 to partially rely on
liquidity reserves in the medium term to service its senior debt
obligations, although to a much lower degree than Essex1.
"The 'B-' rating on Essex2 already reflects market pressures and
our expectation of lower occupancy following the abnormal 2025-2026
peak. Our base-case occupancy assumptions until 2030 already
reflect medium-term demand headwinds from lower enrollment and
greater competition. We do not expect Essex2 to sustain high
occupancy in the short to medium term, but we still expect it to
slightly benefit from price reductions compared to Essex1 due to
the age and size of the asset. We believe the high (90%) occupancy
levels achieved in the 2025-2026 academic year on the back of
substantial discounts is unlikely to be sustainable. We believe a
6%-7% price reduction on Essex2 rents for the academic year
2026-2027 could attract returning students. However, due to the
project's higher leverage compared to Essex1 and Essex3, we believe
any slight reduction in occupancy from our current estimates in the
upcoming 2026-2027 academic year could also make it vulnerable to
nonpayment of its debt obligations in medium to long term due to
higher-than-expected pressure on its liquidity reserves."
Uliving@Essex Issuerco PLC, Uliving@Essex2 Issuerco PLC, and
Uliving@Essex3 Issuerco PLC
The stable outlook on our 'AA' long-term issue rating on all three
projects reflects that on Assured Guaranty and will move in line
with our outlook on the same.
Uliving@Essex2 Issuerco PLC and Uliving@Essex3 Issuerco PLC
The negative outlook on the SPURs on Essex2 and Essex3 student
accommodation projects reflects the risk that their
creditworthiness could deteriorate further over the coming 6-12
months. This risk is driven by continued pressure on revenue and
liquidity, stemming from heightened rental competition in
Colchester and declining student occupancy rates, resulting from
challenges faced by UoE, tighter immigration policies, and
cost-of-living pressures.
Uliving@Essex2 Issuerco PLC (Essex2)
S&P said, "We could lower the SPUR on Essex2 if its liquidity
profile weakens further over the next 6-12 months, exhausting its
liquidity reserves significantly more than currently expected under
our base-case scenario, which could make it vulnerable to debt
nonpayment. This could occur if occupancy recovers at a much slower
rate than currently anticipated in our base case for the upcoming
academic year 2026-2027 due to lower student demand, increased
competition from other private rentals in Colchester, or Essex1 and
Essex3 offering higher rental discounts.
"Although currently unlikely, we could take a negative rating
action if the current event of default on the bonds results in
Assured Guaranty accelerating the debt repayment, as permitted
under the senior finance documents."
Uliving@Essex3 LLP (Essex3)
S&P stated: "We could lower the SPUR on Essex3 if we expect its
financial profile to weaken materially in the next 12 months,
resulting in increased reliance on liquidity reserves to service
its senior debt obligations. This could occur if occupancy recovers
at a much slower rate than currently anticipated in our base case
for the upcoming academic year 2026-2027, due to lower student
demand, increased competition from other private rentals in
Colchester, or from Essex1 and Essex2 offering reduced prices."
Although currently unlikely, we could take a negative rating action
if the current event of default on the bonds results in Assured
Guaranty accelerating the debt repayment, as permitted under the
senior finance documents.
Uliving@Essex2 Issuerco PLC and Uliving@Essex3 LLP
An outlook revision on the SPUR is unlikely over the short term.
However, it could materialize if there is a significant improvement
in student enrollment at UoE, resulting in higher demand for
on-campus accommodation. This would ensure that occupancy levels
remain above or similar to our current base-case levels. Under this
scenario, we expect Essex2 to comfortably survive the current
market downturn without relying heavily on its liquidity reserves.
Furthermore, we believe Essex3 would likely recover more quickly
than Essex1 and Essex2, benefiting from newer and competitively
priced rooms. Additionally, for Essex3, this scenario would result
in DSCRs remaining above 1x in the medium term, meaning it would
not need to use its liquidity reserves for debt service.
Uliving@Essex Issuerco PLC
S&P said, "The CreditWatch placement with negative implications on
the SPUR on Essex1 reflects that we could lower it by one notch in
the next three months. This could happen if the project fails to
secure additional revenue streams -- such as material agreements
for alternative uses of the accommodation blocks with a third party
(for example, social housing with Colchester City Council) -- to
bolster liquidity. In the absence of alternative use or guaranteed
equity support from shareholders, this scenario would increase the
likelihood of the project exhausting its liquidity reserves in the
medium term, making the project vulnerable to nonpayment of debt
instruments. If the project secures alternative revenue sources, we
will evaluate the contract terms, including lease duration, pricing
levels, market exposure, and other risks.
"Although unlikely, we could also take a multi-notch negative
rating action on the SPUR if the event of default on the bonds
leads controlling creditors to accelerate debt repayment, as
permitted under the senior finance documents due to a breach of
financial covenants."
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S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
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