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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Thursday, March 19, 2026, Vol. 27, No. 56
Headlines
F I N L A N D
MEHILAINEN YHTYMA: Moody's Affirms B2 CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
F R A N C E
EDUCATION GROUP: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, Alters Outlook to Stable
I R E L A N D
ARMADA EURO V: Moody's Affirms B3 Rating on EUR9MM Class F Notes
BILBAO CLO III: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating to Cl. E-RR Notes
CARLYLE EURO 2019-1: Moody's Cuts Rating on EUR10MM E Notes to Caa1
CARLYLE GLOBAL 2014-3: Fitch Affirms 'B+sf' Rating on Cl. E-R Notes
CUMULUS STATIC 2024-1: Fitch Affirms 'BB-sf' Rating on Cl. F Notes
CVC CORDATUS XXIV: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Rating to Class F-R-R Notes
MARINO PARK: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating to Class F Notes
NEUBERGER BERMAN 2: Moody's Affirms B3 Rating on EUR9MM F Notes
I T A L Y
FABBRICA ITALIANA: Fitch Affirms 'B+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
GOLDEN BAR 2026-1: Fitch Assigns 'BB+(EXP)sf' Rating to Cl. E Notes
L U X E M B O U R G
ARENA LUXEMBOURG: Moody's Affirms Ba3 CFR, Alters Outlook to Stable
GARFNKELUX HOLDCO 3: Fitch Affirms 'C' Rating on Sr. Secured Debt
SES FINANCING: Moody's Rates New Junior Subordinated Notes 'Ba3'
M O N T E N E G R O
MONTENEGRO: Moody's Affirms Ba3 Issuer Rating, Outlook Now Pos.
N E T H E R L A N D S
BOELS TOPHOLDING: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
P O L A N D
CITY OF ZABRZE: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT IDRs, Alters Outlook to Pos.
S P A I N
SANTANDER CONSUMO 10: Moody's Assigns (P)B3 Rating to Class F Notes
S W E D E N
REN10 HOLDING: Fitch Affirms 'B+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
U K R A I N E
FERREXPO PLC: Fitch Lowers Long-Term IDR to 'CC'
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
AMBER ENERGY: FRP Advisory Appointed as Joint Administrators
BRACCAN MORTGAGE 2026-1: Moody's Assigns (P)B2 Rating to X Notes
C2 VTG: Bespoke Insolvency Appointed as Administrator
DOWSON PLC 2024-1: Moody's Ups Rating on GBP22.75MM E Notes to Ba2
HONOURS PLC 2: Moody's Cuts Rating on GBP11.95MM Cl. D Notes to Ca
WILSHIRE BENCHMARKS: FRP Advisory Appointed as Joint Administrators
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F I N L A N D
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MEHILAINEN YHTYMA: Moody's Affirms B2 CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
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Moody's Ratings has affirmed the B2 corporate family rating and the
B2-PD probability of default rating of Mehilainen Yhtyma Oy
(Mehilainen). Moody's have also affirmed the B2 ratings on the
senior secured and backed senior secured instruments issued by
Mehilainen Yhtiot Oy. The outlook remains stable on both entities.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating affirmation reflects Mehilainen's good operating
performance, supporting adjusted credit metrics that remain well
aligned with the B2 rating.
In 2025, revenue increased by 16.9% to EUR2.4 billion and reported
pre-IFRS EBITDA increased by 21.2% to EUR370 million. The reported
EBITDA margin improved to 15.3%, compared with 14.8% in 2024.
Revenue growth was supported by both organic development and
acquisitions: organic revenue growth amounted to 3.4%, driven by
pricing, contract wins and continued strength in core healthcare
services, while the majority of growth came from acquisitions, most
notably the consolidation of InMedica from March 2025 and the
December 2025 consolidation of Regina Maria and MediGroup. EBITDA
growth was likewise driven primarily by acquisitions, complemented
by a positive organic EBITDA increase of around EUR8 million,
supported by greenfield units, new contracts and efficiency gains.
In 2026, Moody's expects a steady EBITDA margin increase driven by
the first full-year contribution from the recent acquisitions and
continued organic growth across core healthcare services. Margin
improvement is expected to be further supported by the initial
realisation of integration synergies, particularly from Regina
Maria and MediGroup, as operational efficiencies and scale benefits
begin to materialise.
On a pro forma basis for acquisitions, adjusted gross debt to
EBITDA stood at 6.2x in 2025, and Moody's expects this ratio to
decline to around 5.9x in 2026. In 2026, Moody's forecasts adjusted
EBITA to interest expense of 1.8x and an adjusted free cash flow to
debt ratio of 2.2%, metrics that are gradually trending toward the
B1 rating category.
In Moody's base case, Moody's assumes approximately EUR110 million
of additional acquisitions in 2026, reflecting the company's
strategy to further expand its geographic footprint in attractive
jurisdictions. These are expected to be primarily bolt-on
acquisitions in markets where the regulatory environment and
payment systems are not fully public, thereby limiting exposure to
adverse regulatory changes and reducing price-taker risk. At the
same time, Moody's notes that the pursuit of larger-scale
acquisitions beyond bolt-ons could lead to renewed leverage
pressure and constrain the pace of improvement in credit metrics
toward the B1 rating level.
More generally, Mehilainen's B2 ratings are supported by the
company's (1) leadership position in Finland's (Aa1 stable) private
healthcare and social care market; (2) a degree of geographical
diversification with the recent acquisitions in Romania (Baa3
negative), Serbia (Ba2 stable), and Lithuania (A2 stable); (3)
favorable secular trends, driven by an ageing population with a
higher life expectancy resulting in an increased demand for medical
care in Europe; and (4) business diversification providing
healthcare services to various customers in the public and private
sectors.
Conversely, the ratings are constrained by (1) the leveraged
financial profile, illustrated by adjusted gross debt to EBITDA of
6.2x pro forma for acquisitions in 2025; (2) its exposure to
adverse regulatory changes, budgetary pressures on public payers,
which could limit Mehilainen's pricing power; (3) large fixed-cost
base and staff shortages that could exert pressure on
profitability; and (4) potential debt-funded acquisitions which
could impede credit metrics improvement.
LIQUIDITY
Mehilainen's liquidity is good. It is supported by cash of EUR229
million as of December 31, 2025, and an undrawn revolving credit
facility (RCF) of EUR350 million. Moody's estimates the company to
maintain headroom against the springing net leverage covenant set
at 9.75x, tested when the RCF is drawn by more than 40%.
RATING OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Mehilainen
will maintain adjusted credit metrics comfortably within the
guidance for the B2 rating, while also incorporating the risk of
potential releveraging associated with sizable acquisition activity
over the next 12–18 months.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Positive rating pressure could develop if Moody's-adjusted gross
debt to EBITDA remains below 5.5x on a sustained basis; Moody's
adjusted EBITA to interest expense ratio remains above 2.0x on a
sustained basis; Moody's-adjusted free cash flow (FCF) to gross
debt ratio trends towards 5% on a sustained basis.
Downgrade rating pressure could develop if Moody's-adjusted gross
debt to EBITDA ratio remains above 6.5x for a prolonged period;
Moody's-adjusted EBITA to interest expense ratio remains materially
below 1.5x for a prolonged period; Moody's-adjusted FCF remains
negative for a prolonged period; profitability deteriorates because
of competitive, regulatory and pricing pressure; the company
increases financial risk, resulting from debt-funded acquisitions;
liquidity deteriorates.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Services published in February 2026.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Mehilainen Yhtyma Oy is a leading private provider of healthcare
and social care services in Europe, operating across Finland,
Sweden, Estonia, Germany, Lithuania, Romania and Serbia. The group
operates a network of approximately 1,450 units, including medical
clinics, hospitals, diagnostic centres, residential care homes and
child welfare units. Mehilainen provides healthcare and social care
services to public sector, corporate and private customers, with a
growing share of revenue generated outside Finland following recent
international expansion. Mehilainen is majority owned by private
equity investors, with funds managed by CVC Capital Partners
holding approximately 41% of the company and Hellman & Friedman
holding approximately 38%, alongside Finnish institutional
investors, management and employees.
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F R A N C E
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EDUCATION GROUP: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, Alters Outlook to Stable
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Moody's Ratings has downgraded to B3 from B2 the long-term
corporate family rating and to B3-PD from B2-PD the probability of
default rating of The Education Group SAS (Grandir), a France-based
international provider of childcare and early education.
Concurrently, Moody's downgraded to B3 from B2 the ratings on the
EUR525 million senior secured term loan B (TLB) due September 2028
and the EUR110 million senior secured revolving credit facility
(RCF) due March 2028, both borrowed by Grandir. The outlook has
been changed to stable from negative.
"The rating downgrade reflects Grandir's ongoing staffing
challenges in France and intensified competition, particularly in
the B2B segment. These persistent pressures have led to a material
weakening of key credit metrics, with leverage remaining elevated
and free cash flow turning negative," says Víctor García
Capdevila, Moody's Ratings Vice President–Senior Analyst.
"While the international segment continues to perform well and
provides some offset to the weak performance in France, v do not
expect these structural challenges to be fully addressed over the
next 12–18 months," adds Mr. García Capdevila.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Grandir's operating and financial performance has deteriorated
materially and more than Moody's had anticipated at the time of
Moody's April 2025 rating action, when Moody's affirmed the
company's B2 rating and revised the outlook to negative. That
action reflected the deterioration in the group's key credit
metrics driven by its debt-funded inorganic growth strategy, weak
free cash flow generation, and persistent staffing challenges in
France. Since then, performance has continued to weaken, resulting
in a further deterioration of leverage, interest coverage and cash
flow generation.
In 2025, Grandir's organic revenue reached EUR835 million, 3% below
Moody's base case expectation of EUR863 million. Moody's-adjusted
organic EBITDA was EUR161 million, 8% below the EUR174 million
expected. M&A activity contributed an additional EUR16 million of
revenue and EUR3 million of company reported EBITDA in 2025.
For 2026, Moody's base case assumes continued weak operating
performance, with organic revenue increasing by only 1% to EUR847
million, or by 4% to EUR885 million including acquisitions.
Moody's-adjusted organic EBITDA is projected to rise by 1% to
EUR162 million, or by 3% to EUR169 million including inorganic
contributions.
Moody's expects operating performance to recover in 2027, with
revenue increasing by 3% to EUR909 million and Moody's-adjusted
EBITDA rising by 5% to EUR179 million. This improvement is
supported primarily by strong international performance and
continued contributions from the group's inorganic growth
strategy.
The company's underperformance relative to expectations is
primarily driven by structural staffing challenges in France and an
intensifying competitive environment, particularly in the B2B
segment. Staffing shortages continue to weigh on occupancy levels,
increase reliance on temporary personnel, and undermine
profitability. These issues appear structural rather than temporary
in nature, and Moody's do not expect the company to fully overcome
them over the next 12–18 months. At the same time, competitive
and pricing pressures in the B2B segment have intensified, further
constraining revenue growth and margins.
As a result of these pressures, Grandir's key credit metrics have
weakened materially. Moody's-adjusted gross leverage (pre leases)
increased to 6.8x in 2025 from 5.9x in 2024 and is expected to rise
further to around 7.0x in 2026 before moderating to 6.8x in 2027.
Interest coverage, measured as EBITA to interest expense (pre
leases), declined slightly to 1.2x in 2025 from 1.3x in 2024 and is
expected to remain weak at around 1.2x in 2026 and before improving
slightly to 1.3x in 2027.
Free cash flow generation is also expected to weaken. After
generating positive free cash flow of EUR8 million in 2025, Moody's
forecasts a shift to negative free cash flow in 2026 (–EUR9
million) before returning positive in 2027 (EUR5 million).
Overall, Grandir's operating and financial performance has fallen
short of the original expectations underpinning the B2 rating
assigned at the time of the 2021 transaction. Leverage has remained
consistently above expectations and, rather than deleveraging as
initially anticipated, the group's leverage is trending back toward
levels observed at the closing of the 2021 transaction.
Moody's views the company's shareholder support as a credit
positive. This is evidenced by a EUR30 million equity injection in
December 2025, which provides additional financial flexibility and
supports liquidity. In addition, the group's international segment
continues to perform well and helps partially offset the weak
operating performance in France, although this is insufficient to
fully counterbalance the structural challenges affecting the
domestic business.
Social considerations are material to the rating action because of
the structural staffing challenges the company continues to face in
its French domestic market.
LIQUIDITY
Liquidity remains adequate, supported by a cash balance of EUR46
million as of December 2025 and full availability under the EUR110
million senior secured revolving credit facility. The RCF is
subject to a consolidated senior secured net leverage springing
covenant of 9.1x when drawings exceed 40%.
However, the company faces upcoming debt maturities—specifically
the TLB in September 2028 and the RCF in March 2028—which
heighten refinancing risk given the challenging operating
performance in France, weakened credit metrics, and negative free
cash flow generation.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
Grandir's probability of default rating of B3-PD reflects the use
of an expected family recovery rate of 50%, as is consistent with
all first-lien covenant-lite capital structures.
The EUR525 million TLB and the EUR110 million RCF are rated B3, in
line with the company's CFR. Both facilities are guaranteed by the
company's subsidiaries and benefit from a guarantor coverage of not
less than 80% of the group's consolidated EBITDA. The security
package includes shares, bank accounts and intercompany receivables
of material subsidiaries.
The shareholder loan provided by InfraVia Capital Partners
(InfraVia) and Sodexo SA (Sodexo) and due after the final debt
maturity of the TLB is treated as equity under Moody's
methodologies.
RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations of a gradual
stabilization in the group's operating performance over the next
12–24 months, while maintaining an adequate liquidity profile at
all times and gradually improving key credit metrics.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Upward pressure on the rating is unlikely over the next 12–18
months given the currently weak credit metrics. Positive momentum
could emerge if Grandir's Moody's adjusted gross debt/EBITDA falls
below 6.0x before lease adjustments or 4.5x after lease
adjustments, and the company establishes a track record of solid
organic revenue growth, sustained positive free cash flow, and
EBITA/interest expense approaching 1.5x.
The rating could come under pressure if the company's operating
performance deteriorates beyond Moody's current expectations,
resulting in Moody's adjusted gross leverage rising above 7.0x
before lease adjustments or 5.5x after lease adjustments. Negative
rating pressure could also develop if EBITA/interest expense falls
below 1.0x or if free cash flow is sustainably negative, leading to
a material weakening of liquidity.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Services published in February 2026.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
The Education Group SAS (Grandir) is a leading international
provider of childcare and early education for infants and children
under the age of six years, with more than 48,000 seats and 1,100
nurseries in five countries. In 2025, Moody's estimates that the
group had operations in France (57% of revenue), Canada (14%), the
UK (15%), the US (9%), Germany (5%).
The business model is predominantly focused on business-to-consumer
(B2C) (43% of revenue in 2025), B2B (25%) and B2G (32%). In 2025,
Moody's estimates the group generated revenue of EUR851 million and
Moody's-adjusted EBITDA of EUR164 million.
Grandir is owned by funds managed by InfraVia Capital Partners
(InfraVia, 61%), Sodexo SA (20%), the founder and CEO (18%), and
the management team (1%).
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ARMADA EURO V: Moody's Affirms B3 Rating on EUR9MM Class F Notes
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Moody's Ratings has upgraded the rating on the following notes
issued by Armada Euro CLO V Designated Activity Company:
EUR30,500,000 Class B Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2034,
Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Aug 11, 2021 Definitive Rating
Assigned Aa2 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR186,000,000 Class A Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2034, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 11, 2021 Definitive
Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR21,000,000 Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed A2 (sf); previously on Aug 11, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned A2 (sf)
EUR18,000,000 Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed Baa3 (sf); previously on Aug 11, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
EUR16,000,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed Ba3 (sf); previously on Aug 11, 2021
Definitive Rating Assigned Ba3 (sf)
EUR9,000,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes
due 2034, Affirmed B3 (sf); previously on Aug 11, 2021 Definitive
Rating Assigned B3 (sf)
Armada Euro CLO V Designated Activity Company, issued in August
2021, is a collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a
portfolio of mostly high-yield senior secured European loans. The
portfolio is managed by Brigade Capital Europe Management LLP. The
transaction's reinvestment period ended in January 2026.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrade on the Class B notes is primarily a result of
the benefit of the transaction having reached the end of the
reinvestment period in January 2026.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A, C, D, E and F notes
are primarily a result of the expected losses on the notes
remaining consistent with their current rating levels, after taking
into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its relevant structural
features and its actual over-collateralisation ratios.
In light of reinvestment restrictions during the amortisation
period, and therefore the limited ability to effect significant
changes to the current collateral pool, Moody's analysed the deal
assuming a higher likelihood that the collateral pool
characteristics would maintain an adequate buffer relative to
certain covenant requirements.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR298.5m
Defaulted Securities: EUR2.9m
Diversity Score: 41
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3029
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 4.34 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors: 3.47%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 3.96%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 45.41%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: 0%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in October 2025.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank provider, using the
methodology "Structured Finance Counterparty Risks" published in
May 2025. Moody's concluded the ratings of the notes are not
constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's
over-collateralisation levels. Further, the timing of recoveries
and the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Moody's analysed
defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the market price or the
recovery rate to account for potential volatility in market prices.
Recoveries higher than Moody's expectations would have a positive
impact on the notes' ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
BILBAO CLO III: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating to Cl. E-RR Notes
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Fitch Ratings has assigned Bilbao CLO III DAC reset notes final
ratings, as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
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Bilbao CLO III DAC
A-1-R XS2332235733 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AAAsf
A-1-RR XS3297707294 LT AAAsf New Rating
A-2-RR XS3297707534 LT AAsf New Rating
A-2A-R XS2332236384 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AA+sf
A-2B-R XS2332236970 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AA+sf
B-R XS2332237788 LT PIFsf Paid In Full A+sf
B-RR XS3297707708 LT Asf New Rating
C-R XS2332238323 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BBB+sf
C-RR XS3297735238 LT BBB-sf New Rating
D-R XS2332239131 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BB+sf
D-RR XS3297708268 LT BB-sf New Rating
E-R XS2332238919 LT PIFsf Paid In Full Bsf
E-RR XS3297708425 LT B-sf New Rating
Transaction Summary
Bilbao CLO III DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior secured
obligations (at least 90%) with a component of senior unsecured,
mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield bonds. Note proceeds
have been used to redeem the existing notes, except the
subordinated notes, and to fund the portfolio with a target par of
EUR350 million.
The portfolio is actively managed by Guggenheim Partners Europe
Ltd. The CLO has an approximately 4.5-year reinvestment period, and
a 7.5-year weighted average life (WAL) test covenant at closing.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch-weighted
average rating factor of the identified portfolio is 26.0.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch-weighted
average recovery rate of the identified portfolio is 60.8%.
Diversified Asset Portfolio (Positive): The transaction includes
various concentration limits, including a top 10 obligor
concentration limit of 20%, a fixed-rate obligation limit of 10%
and a maximum exposure to the three largest Fitch-defined
industries of 40%. These covenants ensure that the asset portfolio
will not be exposed to excessive concentration.
WAL Test Step-Up Feature (Neutral): The transaction can extend the
WAL by one year on or up to three months after the step-up date,
which is one year after closing. The WAL extension is subject to
conditions, including the satisfaction of collateral quality tests
and the collateral principal balance (with defaulted assets at
collateral value) being at least at the reinvestment target par,
unless the transaction has already moved to the matrix with a WAL
of 8.5 years, in which case no further conditions apply.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction has an
approximately 4.5-year reinvestment period, which is governed by
reinvestment criteria that are similar to those of other European
transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on a stressed-case
portfolio with the aim of testing the robustness of the transaction
structure against its covenants and portfolio guidelines.
The transaction includes three sets of Fitch test matrices. Two are
effective at closing, one with a WAL of 8.5 years and one with a
WAL of 7.5 years. The third has a WAL of seven years and will
become effective 18 months after closing. Matrix switches are
conditional on the collateral principal amount (with defaults
accounted for at Fitch-calculated collateral value) being at least
at the reinvestment target par balance and the satisfaction of the
transaction's collateral quality tests.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL Fitch modelled is 12 months
less than the WAL covenant. This is to account for the strict
reinvestment conditions envisaged after the reinvestment period.
These include passing both the coverage tests and the Fitch 'CCC'
limit as well as a WAL covenant that progressively steps down.
Fitch believes these conditions would reduce the effective risk
horizon of the portfolio during stress periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) across all ratings
and a 25% decrease of the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of
the current portfolio would have no impact on the class A-1-RR
notes and would lead to downgrades of two notches on the class
A-2-RR, B-RR, D-RR notes, one notch for the class C-RR notes and to
below 'B-sf' for the class E-RR notes.
Based on the current portfolio, downgrades may occur if the loss
expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of defaults and portfolio deterioration. Due to the
better metrics and shorter life of the current portfolio than the
stressed-case portfolio, the class C-RR and D-RR notes display
rating cushions of two notches and the class A-2-RR, B-RR and E-RR
notes of one notch. The class A-1-RR notes do not display any
rating cushion as they are already at the highest achievable
rating.
Should the cushion between the current portfolio and the
stressed-case portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
across all ratings and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings
of the stressed-case portfolio would lead to downgrades of four
notches for the class A-2-RR and B-RR notes, three notches for the
class A-1-RR and C-RR notes and to below 'B-sf' for the class D-RR
and E-RR notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the RDR across all ratings and a 25% increase in
the RRR across all ratings of the stressed-case portfolio would
lead to upgrades of up to two notches for the rated notes, except
for the 'AAAsf' rated notes, which are at the highest level on
Fitch's scale and cannot be upgraded.
During the reinvestment period, based on the stressed-case
portfolio, upgrades may occur on better-than-expected portfolio
credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, leading to the
ability of the notes to withstand larger-than-expected losses for
the remaining life of the transaction.
After the end of the reinvestment period, upgrades may occur in
case of stable portfolio credit quality and deleveraging, leading
to higher credit enhancement and excess spread available to cover
losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Bilbao CLO III
DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
CARLYLE EURO 2019-1: Moody's Cuts Rating on EUR10MM E Notes to Caa1
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has taken a variety of rating actions on the
following notes issued by Carlyle Euro CLO 2019-1 DAC:
EUR23,000,000 Class B Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2032, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 19, 2025
Upgraded to Aa3 (sf)
EUR27,000,000 Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2032, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Aug 19, 2025
Upgraded to Baa2 (sf)
EUR10,000,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2032, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Aug 19, 2025
Downgraded to B3 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR240,000,000 (Current outstanding amount EUR103,776,973) Class
A-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2032, Affirmed Aaa (sf);
previously on Aug 19, 2025 Affirmed Aaa (sf)
EUR36,000,000 Class A-2A Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2032, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 19, 2025 Upgraded to Aaa
(sf)
EUR10,000,000 Class A-2B Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due 2032,
Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Aug 19, 2025 Upgraded to Aaa (sf)
EUR22,700,000 Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2032, Affirmed Ba2 (sf); previously on Aug 19, 2025
Affirmed Ba2 (sf)
Carlyle Euro CLO 2019-1 DAC, issued in March 2019, is a
collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by a portfolio of
mostly high-yield senior secured European and US loans and bonds.
The portfolio is managed by CELF Advisors LLP. The transaction's
reinvestment period ended in September 2023.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The upgrades on the ratings on the Class B and C notes are
primarily a result of the deleveraging of the Class A-1 notes
following amortisation of the underlying portfolio since the last
rating action in August 2025; the downgrade on the rating on the
Class E notes is due to the deterioration in the credit quality of
the underlying collateral pool since the last rating action in
August 2025.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A-1, A-2A, A-2B and D
notes are primarily a result of the expected losses on the notes
remaining consistent with their current rating levels, after taking
into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its relevant structural
features and its actual over-collateralisation ratios.
The Class A-1 notes have paid down by approximately EUR83.0million
(37.3%) since the last rating action in August 2025 and EUR136.2
million (56.8%) since closing. As a result of the deleveraging,
over-collateralisation (OC) has increased across the capital
structure. According to the trustee report dated February 2026 [1],
the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D and Class E OC ratios are
reported at 164.44%, 142.55%, 123.28%, 110.70% and 105.95% compared
to July 2025 [2] levels of 142.73%, 129.90%, 117.49%, 108.76% and
105.31%, respectively.
The deleveraging and OC improvements primarily resulted from high
prepayment rates of leveraged loans in the underlying portfolio.
Since the last rating action in August 2025, vast majority of such
prepaid proceeds has been applied to amortise the liabilities. All
else held equal, such deleveraging is generally a positive credit
driver for the CLO's rated liabilities.
At the same time, the credit quality of the underlying portfolio
has deteriorated as reflected in the deterioration in the average
credit rating of the portfolio (measured by the weighted average
rating factor, or WARF) and an increase in the proportion of
securities from issuers with ratings of Caa1 or lower. According to
the trustee report dated February 2026 [1], the WARF was 3284,
compared with 3015 for the July 2025 [2] report used for the last
rating action. Securities with ratings of Caa1 or lower currently
make up approximately 7.6% of the underlying portfolio as per
February 2026 [1] report, versus 6.2% respectively in July 2025 [2]
report as used for the last rating action in August 2025.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR246,447,367
Defaulted Securities: EUR581,697
Diversity Score: 34
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3409
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 3.29 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors): 3.66%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 3.90%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 43.76%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: none
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in October 2025.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank, using the
methodology "Structured Finance Counterparty Risks" published in
May 2025. Moody's concluded the ratings of the notes are not
constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: The main source of uncertainty in this
transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's
over-collateralisation levels. Further, the timing of recoveries
and the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Moody's analysed
defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the market price or the
recovery rate to account for potential volatility in market prices.
Recoveries higher than Moody's expectations would have a positive
impact on the notes' ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
CARLYLE GLOBAL 2014-3: Fitch Affirms 'B+sf' Rating on Cl. E-R Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Carlyle Global Market Strategies Euro
CLO 2014-3 DAC 's class B-R and C-R notes, and affirmed the rest,
as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Carlyle Global Market
Strategies Euro
CLO 2014-3 DAC
A-1A-R XS1751482305 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
A-1B-R XS1751482644 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
A-2A-R XS1751483022 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
A-2B-R XS1751483451 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B-R XS1751483709 LT AA+sf Upgrade AA-sf
C-R XS1751484004 LT AAsf Upgrade A-sf
D-R XS1751484699 LT BB+sf Affirmed BB+sf
E-R XS1751484343 LT B+sf Affirmed B+sf
Transaction Summary
Carlyle Global Market Strategies Euro CLO 2014-3 DAC is a cash flow
CLO comprising senior secured obligations. The transaction closed
in October 2014 and was reset in January 2018. It is managed by
CELF Advisors LLP and exited its reinvestment period in July 2022.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Transaction Deleveraging: About EUR224.8 million of the class
A-1A-R and A-1B-R notes has been repaid since its last review in
April 2025. This deleveraging has resulted in an increase in credit
enhancement for the rated notes, and the rating upgrades for the
class B-R and C-R notes reflect sufficient default rate cushions at
their ratings.
Losses Below Rating Case Assumptions: As of the latest trustee
report, the transaction was about 3% below par (calculated as the
current par difference over the original target par) and no
defaulted assets were in the portfolio. However, the shortfall to
par is below its rating-case loss assumptions.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the underlying obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The weighted average rating
factor of the current portfolio is 26.9 as calculated by Fitch.
About 14.3% of the portfolio comprises assets with an Issuer
Default Rating on Negative Outlook.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
100% of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for these
assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery
rate of the current portfolio is 62.1%.
Increasing Portfolio Concentration: The top 10 obligor
concentration, as calculated by Fitch, is 23.7%, and no obligor
represents more than 2.8% of the portfolio balance. This represents
a sharp increase from April 2025, when the top 10 obligor
concentration was 14.1% and the largest obligor accounted for 1.7%,
which is common in deleveraging transactions. Exposure to the three
largest Fitch-defined industries is 31.3% as calculated by Fitch.
Fixed-rate assets as reported by the trustee are at 6.6%, currently
complying with the limit of 10%.
Deviation from MIR: The class C-R notes are rated one notch below
their respective model-implied rating (MIR), due to insufficient
default rate cushion at the MIR.
Transaction Outside Reinvestment Period: The transaction exited its
reinvestment period in July 2022, and the most senior notes are
being repaid. The transaction is failing some tests, with the Fitch
'CCC' assets accounting for 8.6% of the portfolio balance, above
the 7.5% limit. However, strict test satisfaction is not required
by the reinvestment criteria and its analysis has therefore tested
the notes' achievable ratings across the Fitch matrices.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Downgrades, which are based on the current portfolio, may occur if
the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may result from stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the rating
agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating
methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Carlyle Global
Market Strategies Euro CLO 2014-3 DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
CUMULUS STATIC 2024-1: Fitch Affirms 'BB-sf' Rating on Cl. F Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Cumulus Static CLO 2024-1 DAC's class B
and C notes and affirmed the rest.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Cumulus Static
CLO 2024-1 DAC
A XS2797356842 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B XS2797421505 LT AA+sf Upgrade AAsf
C XS2797421927 LT A+sf Upgrade Asf
D XS2797422149 LT BBBsf Affirmed BBBsf
E XS2797422495 LT BBsf Affirmed BBsf
F XS2797422578 LT BB-sf Affirmed BB-sf
Transaction Summary
Cumulus Static CLO 2024-1 DAC is an arbitrage cash flow
collateralised loan obligation (CLO). Net proceeds from the notes
issuance were used to purchase a static pool of primarily secured
senior loans and bonds, with a target par of EUR400 million.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Deleveraging Transaction: The transaction is static, leading to
rapid deleveraging, with about EUR71.7 million of class A notes
having been repaid since the issuance date in May 2024. This
deleveraging has resulted in an increase in credit enhancement
across the capital structure, which supports the rating upgrades
and affirmations.
Large Cushion for Most Notes: All notes, except class F, benefit
from comfortable default-rate buffers that can absorb additional
portfolio defaults, supported by low near- and medium-term
refinancing risk, with no assets maturing in 2026 and about 2%
maturing in 2027. A weakening in portfolio credit quality could
erode the limited class F buffer, potentially triggering a
downgrade.
Stable Performance, Static Deal: The transaction does not have a
reinvestment period, and discretionary sales are not permitted. The
transaction's performance has been stable, with the latest trustee
report showing 3.3% of assets with a Fitch-Derived Rating of 'CCC+'
and below. The transaction is exposed to 18% of assets that have an
Issuer Default Rating with a Negative Outlook, according to Fitch's
calculations. The transaction is only slightly below par, with
losses well below the rating case assumption.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch-calculated weighted average
rating factor of the current portfolio is 25.
Diversified Portfolio Composition: The three-largest industries
comprise 33.8% of the portfolio balance, the top 10 obligors
represent 17.8% of the portfolio balance and the largest obligor
represents 2.4% of the portfolio.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
99.3% of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for
these assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery
rate of the current portfolio is 60.7%.
Deviation from Model-Implied Rating (MIR): The class B, D and E
notes are rated one notch below their model-implied ratings (MIR),
respectively. due to thin break-even default-rate cushion within
the Fitch portfolio at their MIRs, and due to uncertain
macro-economic conditions that may increase default risk.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Downgrades, which are based on the identified portfolio, may occur
if the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may result from stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the rating
agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating
methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Cumulus Static CLO
2024-1 DAC. In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance
scores in connection with the credit rating of a transaction,
programme, instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor
that is a key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of
the relevant rating action commentary.
CVC CORDATUS XXIV: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Rating to Class F-R-R Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned CVC Cordatus Loan Fund XXIV DAC reset
notes final ratings, as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
CVC Cordatus Loan
Fund XXIV DAC
A XS2511417979 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AAAsf
A-R XS3295693652 LT AAAsf New Rating
Class B1-R XS2786924691 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AA+sf
B-1-R-R XS3295694890 LT AAsf New Rating
B-2 XS2511417110 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AA+sf
B-2-R XS3295695277 LT AAsf New Rating
Class C-R XS2786924774 LT PIFsf Paid In Full A+sf
C-R-R XS3295695517 LT Asf New Rating
Class D-R XS2786925078 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BBB+sf
D-R-R XS3295695780 LT BBB-sf New Rating
Class E-R XS2786925235 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BB+sf
E-R-R XS3295695947 LT BB-sf New Rating
Class F-R XS2786925318 LT PIFsf Paid In Full B-sf
F-R-R XS3295696242 LT B-sf New Rating
Transaction Summary
CVC Cordatus Loan Fund XXIV Reset DAC is a securitisation of mainly
(at least 90%) senior secured obligations with a component of
senior unsecured, mezzanine, second lien loans and high-yield
bonds. Note proceeds have been used to redeem the existing notes
(except the subordinated notes) and to fund the existing portfolio
with a target par of EUR310 million.
The portfolio is actively managed by CVC Credit Partners Investment
Management Limited. The CLO will have a 4.5-year reinvestment
period and a seven-year weighted average life (WAL) test at
closing
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch weighted
average rating factor of the identified portfolio is 25.0.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate of the identified portfolio is 57.6%.
Diversified Portfolio (Positive): The reset transaction includes
one matrix set at closing. The matrix set comprises two matrices
with fixed-rate asset limits of 5% and 12.5%. The transaction
includes various portfolio concentration limits, including a top 10
obligor concentration limit of 20% and a maximum exposure to the
three largest Fitch-defined industries of 40%. These covenants
ensure the asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive
concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction will have a
4.5-year reinvestment period and includes reinvestment criteria
similar to those of other European transactions. Fitch's analysis
is based on a stressed case portfolio with the aim of testing the
robustness of the transaction structure against its covenants and
portfolio guidelines.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio analysis is 12 months shorter than the WAL
covenant. This is to account for the strict reinvestment conditions
envisaged by the transaction after its reinvestment period, which
include passing the coverage tests and the Fitch 'CCC' bucket
limitation test after reinvestment as well as a WAL covenant that
gradually steps down, before and after the end of the reinvestment
period. Fitch believes these conditions would reduce the effective
risk horizon of the portfolio during stress periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) across all ratings
and a 25% decrease of the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of
the identified portfolio would have no impact on the class A-R-R,
B1-R-R and B2-R notes and lead to downgrades of one notch for the
class C-R-R, D-R-R and E-R-R notes and to below 'B-sf' for the
class F-R-R notes.
Downgrades are based on the identified portfolio. They may occur if
the loss expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to
unexpectedly high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Due to the better metrics and shorter life of the identified
portfolio than the Fitch-stressed portfolio, the rated notes
display rating cushions of up to two notches.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR of the Fitch-stressed portfolio
across all ratings would lead to downgrades of three notches for
the class B1-R-R to C-R-R notes, two notches for the class A-R-R
and D-R-R notes and to below 'B-sf' for the class E-R-R and F-R-R
notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR across all ratings and a 25%
increase in the RRR across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed
portfolio would lead to upgrades of up to two notches for the
notes, except for the 'AAAsf' notes, which are at the highest level
on Fitch's scale and cannot be upgraded.
During the reinvestment period, based on the Fitch-stressed
portfolio, upgrades may occur on better-than-expected portfolio
credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, allowing the notes
to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the remaining life of
the transaction. After the end of the reinvestment period, upgrades
may result from stable portfolio credit quality and deleveraging,
leading to higher credit enhancement and excess spread available to
cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
CVC Cordatus Loan Fund XXIV DAC
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for CVC Cordatus Loan
Fund XXIV DAC. In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance
scores in connection with the credit rating of a transaction,
programme, instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor
that is a key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of
the relevant rating action commentary.
MARINO PARK: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating to Class F Notes
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Marino Park CLO DAC reset notes final
ratings, as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Marino Park CLO DAC
A Loan LT AAAsf New Rating
A Notes XS3291784125 LT AAAsf New Rating
B XS3291784471 LT AAsf New Rating
C XS3291784711 LT Asf New Rating
D XS3291784984 LT BBB-sf New Rating
E XS3291785106 LT BB-sf New Rating
F XS3291785445 LT B-sf New Rating
Subordinated Notes
XS2262866838 LT NRsf New Rating
Transaction Summary
Marino Park CLO DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior secured
obligations (at least 90%) with a component of senior unsecured,
mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield bonds. Note proceeds
were used to redeem all the existing notes, except for the
subordinated notes, and to fund the portfolio with a target par of
EUR325 million and is managed by Blackstone Ireland Limited. The
collateralised loan obligation (CLO) has a 4.7-year reinvestment
period and a 7.5-year weighted average life test (WAL).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The
Fitch-calculated weighted average rating factor (WARF) of the
identified portfolio is 24.9.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated
weighted average recovery rate (WARR) of the identified portfolio
is 59.9%.
Diversified Portfolio (Positive): The transaction includes various
concentration limits, including a top-10 obligor concentration
limit at 20%, a maximum of 40% to the three-largest Fitch-defined
industries and a fixed-rate asset limit of 10%. These covenants
ensure the asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive
concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction has an
approximately 4.7-year reinvestment period and includes
reinvestment criteria similar to those of other European
transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on a stressed case
portfolio with the aim of testing the robustness of the transaction
structure against its covenants and portfolio guidelines.
The transaction includes four Fitch test matrices - two effective
at closing and another two effective one year after closing,
subject to the aggregate collateral balance (defaults treated at
Fitch collateral value) being at least at the reinvestment target
par. The closing matrices correspond to a 7.5-year WAL covenant and
the two forward matrices correspond to a seven-year WAL covenant.
All the matrices are based on the same top 10 obligors limit and
fixed-rate asset limits of 5% and 10%.
WAL Test Step-Up Feature (Neutral): The WAL test covenant may be
extended by a year, from 12 months after the issue date, and any
time thereafter, subject to the satisfaction of Fitch collateral
quality tests and the collateral principal amount (with defaults
treated at Fitch collateral value) being equal or exceeding the
reinvestment target par balance. If the manager switches to the
forward matrix set, the WAL can step up from 18 months after the
issue date.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio analysis is 12 months less than the WAL
covenant. This is to account for the strict reinvestment conditions
envisaged by the transaction after its reinvestment period. These
conditions include passing the coverage tests and the Fitch 'CCC'
bucket limitation test, and a WAL covenant that gradually steps
down, before and after the end of the reinvestment period. Fitch
believes these conditions would reduce the effective risk horizon
of the portfolio during stress periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) and a 25% decrease of
the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of the identified
portfolio would have no impact on the class A notes to and A loan,
and lead to downgrades of one notch each on the class B to E notes
and to below 'B-sf' for the class F notes.
Downgrades, which are based on the identified portfolio, may occur
if the loss expectation is larger than assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration. The class B to
F notes each have a rating cushion of two notches due to the better
metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio than the
Fitch-stressed portfolio.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings of the
Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of up to four
notches each for the notes and to below 'B-sf' for the class E and
F notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR and a 25% increase in the RRR
across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to
upgrades of up to three notches each for the rated notes, except
for the 'AAAsf' rated notes.
Upgrades during the reinvestment period, which are based on the
Fitch-stressed portfolio, may occur on better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, allowing
the notes to withstand larger-than- expected losses for the
remaining life of the transaction. Upgrades after the end of the
reinvestment period may result from stable portfolio credit quality
and deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the rating
agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating
methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Marino Park CLO
DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
NEUBERGER BERMAN 2: Moody's Affirms B3 Rating on EUR9MM F Notes
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings on the following notes
issued by Neuberger Berman Loan Advisers Euro CLO 2 DAC:
EUR23,000,000 Class B-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2034, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Sep 23, 2021 Assigned Aa2
(sf)
EUR10,000,000 Class B-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due 2034,
Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Sep 23, 2021 Assigned Aa2 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following notes:
EUR181,500,000 Class A Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2034, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Sep 23, 2021 Assigned Aaa
(sf)
EUR21,000,000 Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed A2 (sf); previously on Sep 23, 2021
Assigned A2 (sf)
EUR19,500,000 Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed Baa3 (sf); previously on Sep 23, 2021
Assigned Baa3 (sf)
EUR15,800,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed Ba3 (sf); previously on Sep 23, 2021
Assigned Ba3 (sf)
EUR9,000,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes
due 2034, Affirmed B3 (sf); previously on Sep 23, 2021 Assigned B3
(sf)
Neuberger Berman Loan Advisers Euro CLO 2 DAC originally issued in
September 2021, is a collateralised loan obligation (CLO) backed by
a portfolio of mostly high-yield senior secured European loans. The
portfolio is managed by Neuberger Berman Europe Limited. The
transaction's reinvestment period will end in April 2026.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrades on the Class B-1 and B-2 notes are primarily a
result of the benefit of the shorter period of time remaining
before the end of the reinvestment period in April 2026.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A, C, D, E and F notes
are primarily a result of the expected losses on the notes
remaining consistent with their current rating levels, after taking
into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its relevant structural
features and its actual over-collateralisation ratios.
In light of reinvestment restrictions during the amortisation
period, and therefore the limited ability to effect significant
changes to the current collateral pool, Moody's analysed the deal
assuming a higher likelihood that the collateral pool
characteristics would maintain an adequate buffer relative to
certain covenant requirements.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR298.8m
Defaulted Securities: 0
Diversity Score: 60
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3048
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 4.5 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors): 3.59%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 3.71%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 44.07%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: 0%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability Moody's are analysing.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in October 2025.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as account bank, using the
methodology "Structured Finance Counterparty Risks" published in
May 2025. Moody's concluded the ratings of the notes are not
constrained by these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: Once reaching the end of the
reinvestment period in April 2026, the main source of uncertainty
in this transaction is the pace of amortisation of the underlying
portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on market
conditions and have a significant impact on the notes' ratings.
Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high loan
prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral manager or
be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend restructurings.
Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings of the notes
beginning with the notes having the highest prepayment priority.
-- Weighted average life: The notes' ratings are sensitive to the
weighted average life assumption of the portfolio, which could
lengthen as a result of the manager's decision to reinvest in new
issue loans or other loans with longer maturities, or participate
in amend-to-extend offerings. The effect on the ratings of
extending the portfolio's weighted average life can be positive or
negative depending on the notes' seniority.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
=========
I T A L Y
=========
FABBRICA ITALIANA: Fitch Affirms 'B+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned F.I.S. Fabbrica Italiana Sintetici
S.p.A.'s (FIS) EUR470 million senior secured floating notes and
EUR300 million senior secured fixed notes final 'BB-' senior
secured ratings with a Recovery Rating of 'RR3'. Fitch has also
affirmed FIS's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+'. The
Outlook is Stable.
The final instrument rating is in line with the expected rating
Fitch assigned to the notes on 26 January. Proceeds have been used
to refinance existing indebtedness, finance shareholder
distributions of EUR332 million and pay transaction costs of EUR11
million.
FIS's 'B+' Long-Term IDR reflects its view that it will continue to
deliver solid organic growth and profitability improvements,
reducing EBITDA leverage towards 4.1x from 2027, after a temporary
increase to 4.5x in 2026 due to the current refinancing with
re-leveraging. It also reflects its view that free cash flow (FCF)
before expansion capex has turned sustainably positive from 2025,
assuming working-capital management remains tight.
Key Rating Drivers
Refinancing Temporarily Increases Leverage: FIS issued EUR770
million senior secured notes in two tranches, to refinance its
EUR350 million senior secured notes and EUR50 million private loan
maturing in August 2027 and to distribute EUR332 million to its
shareholders. The transaction will temporarily raise leverage to
4.5x in 2026, from a very low 2.9x estimated for 2025. Fitch
projects ongoing margin expansion in 2027-2029 will contribute to
deleveraging to below 4.5x, which is commensurate with a 'B+'
rating. Fitch expects FIS will adhere to a conservative financial
policy, pursuing M&A opportunities that do not result in a
permanent leverage increase and that support its deleveraging
trajectory.
Organic Deleveraging Prospects: Fitch expects EBITDA leverage to
reduce towards 4.1x in 2027, driven by mid-to-high single-digit
revenue growth and further EBITDA margin expansion towards 22% by
2029 (2025E: 19.9%), due to strong organic growth in the
high-margin custom business division and new cost-efficiency
measures. Revenue expansion will be driven by higher volumes and a
favourable product mix, led by increased sales in the anti-diabetic
and weight loss franchise in multiple presentations, which will
also drive margin gains alongside efficiency measures.
The Stable Outlook reflects its expectation of continued organic
deleveraging potential to below 4.0x by 2029, resulting in leverage
being comfortably within its sensitivities for a 'B+' rating.
Modest Scale, High Product Concentration: FIS's rating is
constrained by its small scale, although it has materially
increased in the last four years, and high product and customer
concentration. Fitch expects growth to be driven by the GLP-1
franchise, its largest revenue-generating therapeutics, over the
medium term. Revenue has some volatility as it relies on the
commercial success of target drugs, pricing pressures from
regulatory bodies, generic pressures from other GLP-1
presentations, and potential loss of key contracts. Fitch estimates
GLP-1 sales in 2025 were over 20% of total across multiple
customers and will expand as the GLP-1 pill is approved and
launched in Europe.
FCF Generation Supports Rating: The IDR reflects its estimate that
FCF before expansion capex has become sustainably positive from
2025, supported by revenue growth and profitability improvement,
alongside more efficient working-capital management. Expansion
capex will peak in 2027, resulting in FCF being near break-even
that year, before starting to improve by 2029. Sustained positive
FCF, along with a low leverage and a conservative financial policy,
were the main considerations for the recent upgrade to 'B+ '.
Comfortable Liquidity: High working-capital requirements and capex
intensity have historically constrained FCF. FIS has been
optimising working-capital management over the past two years.
Continued optimisation should help further improve working-capital
efficiency, supporting positive FCF generation before expansion
capex until 2029. Strong operating performance, efficient
working-capital management and temporarily increased but manageable
capex, should help build up cash for reinvestment. Fitch assumes
small M&A in 2026-2029, which is not included in the company's
business plan, to be financed from internally generated cash.
Strong Revenue Visibility: FIS has a well-established position in a
non-cyclical and growing market and strong revenue visibility. As a
CDMO of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) for small
molecules, FIS benefits from long-term contracts with profitable
clients that have high switching costs and focus more on
reliability of supply than on costs. Setting up a contract
manufacturer requires large capex, technical knowledge, regulatory
approvals and time to build reputation. These factors, alongside
the long lifecycle of pharma products, translate into high revenue
visibility.
Supportive Market Fundamentals: FIS's credit profile benefits from
the supportive fundamentals of the broader pharmaceuticals market,
with non-cyclical volume growth driven by growing and ageing
populations and increasing access to medical care. Fitch expects
the API CDMO market to grow at mid-to-high single digits until
2033. FIS is well- placed to capitalise on the trend for
outsourcing of non-core and technologically complex processes,
particularly as a main supplier of GLP-1 molecules, which in its
view offers potential for diversification and profitability
improvement. FIS may benefit from increased local production of
APIs.
Peer Analysis
Fitch regards capital- and asset-intensive businesses such as Roar
Bidco AB (Recipharm; B/Stable), Kepler S.p.A. (Biofarma, B/Stable)
and European Medco Development 3 S.a.r.l. (Axplora; B-/Stable) as
FIS's closest peers as they all rely on investments to grow at or
above market and to maintain or improve operating margins.
FIS is smaller than Recipharm, but this is balanced by its modest
leverage with expected EBITDA leverage at 4.5x after the notes
issuance versus an expected 6.0x at Recipharm by end-2025,
warranting FIS's higher rating.
Axplora and Biofarma benefit from their more niche market
positions, driving structurally higher profitability. Biofarma's
considerably smaller scale than all its peers and inorganic growth
strategy constrain its rating. Axplora's rating is limited by its
recent loss of key contracts and high leverage.
In the wider Fitch-rated pharmaceutical portfolio, Fitch compares
FIS with a generic drug manufacturing company, Nidda BondCo GmbH
(B/Stable), which is much larger and has stronger profitability,
but these factors are offset by a more aggressive financial policy,
resulting in higher leverage for the former.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- High single-digit revenue growth in 2025, followed by mid-to-high
single digits in 2026-2029
- Fitch-defined EBITDA margin close to 20% in 2025, continuing its
improvement to above 22% by 2029
- Working capital inflow in 2025-2027, on improved inventory
management and reduced factoring use. Fitch expects working-capital
requirements to continue to grow from 2028 as the business
continues to expand
- Capex increasing to above EUR100 million-EUR110 million in
2025-2029, from EUR61 million in 2024, as the company invests in
its facilities
- Total acquisitions of EUR80 million in 2026-2029
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
- Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): Management (bb-, Moderate), Sector Characteristics
(bbb, Lower), Market and Competitive Positioning (b+, Higher),
Diversification and Asset Quality (b+, Moderate), Company
Operational Characteristics (bb, Moderate), Profitability (bbb-,
Moderate), Financial Structure (bb-, Higher), and Financial
Flexibility (bb+, Moderate).
- The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 15% weight for the forecast year 2025,
35% for the forecast year 2026, 25% for the forecast year 2027 and
25% for the forecast year 2028.
- Weakest link considerations adjustment is applied based on Market
and Competitive Positioning factor and results in an adjustment of
-1 notch(es).
- B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and result in no
adjustment.
- The Governance assessment of 'Good' results in no adjustment.
- The Operating Environment assessment of 'a' results in no
adjustment.
- The SCP is 'b+'.
Recovery Analysis
FIS's recovery analysis is based on a going-concern (GC) approach,
reflecting Fitch's view that despite the company's valuable asset
base, a GC sale of the business in financial distress would yield a
higher realisable value for creditors than a balance-sheet
liquidation. In its view, financial distress could arise primarily
from sharp revenue and margin contraction, following volume losses
or price pressure related to contract losses and exposure to
generic competition.
Fitch assumed a post-restructuring EBITDA of about EUR125 million
to calculate the GC enterprise value (EV). This reflects Fitch's
expectation of organic portfolio earnings after distress, possible
corrective measures and a 5.5x distressed EV/EBITDA. In its view,
the latter would appropriately reflect FIS's minimum valuation
multiple before considering value added through portfolio and brand
management. The recovery multiple is in line with that of CDMO
peers like Biofarma and Axplora, and below Recipharm's 6.0x,
reflecting the more specialised production the latter engages in.
Its principal waterfall analysis generated a ranked recovery in the
'RR3' band, resulting in a senior secured debt rating of 'BB-', for
the new EUR770 million fixed and floating rate notes, after
deducting 10% for administrative claims. In its debt waterfall,
Fitch treats EUR10 million in short-term local lines and its new
EUR160 million super senior revolving credit facility (RCF), which
we assume to be fully drawn prior to distress, both as
super-senior. Outstanding factoring is partially excluded from the
waterfall analysis as Fitch assumes the facility would remain at
least partially available at times of distress, given the high
quality of the receivables.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- A more aggressive financial policy leading to EBITDA leverage
above 4.5x on a consistent basis
- Inability to execute its profitable organic growth strategy,
coupled with volatile working capital outflows and increased capex
requirements that lead to a deterioration of FCF generation
- EBITDA interest coverage below 3.0x
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Fitch does not envisage an upgrade to the 'BB' rating category in
the medium term until FIS improves its scale and diversifies its
product portfolio while maintaining profitable growth. conservative
leverage policy leading to EBITDA leverage below 3.5x on a
sustained basis and FCF margins consistently in the mid-single
digits
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-September 2025 FIS had EUR135 million of cash available for
debt repayment (excluding EUR20 million Fitch-defined restricted
cash), and full availability under its committed RCF. Fitch
forecasts FCF will generate enough cash to fund its heavy
investment cycle to 2029.
The executed refinancing has further strengthened the company's
liquidity profile as it extends its maturity to 2031 and increases
RCF to EUR160 million, which was fully undrawn at closing.
Issuer Profile
FIS is a CDMO that specialises in the production and development of
API. The business is organised into custom products (62% of 9M25
revenue), established products (35%) and R&D services (3%).
Summary of Financial Adjustments
Fitch considers around EUR134 million factoring facilities as debt
(as of 2024). Fitch treats the new EUR230 million payment in-kind
notes as equity, as per the final documentation provided. In
addition, Fitch treats EUR20 million as not readily available for
debt service.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for FIS.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
F.I.S. Fabbrica
Italiana Sintetici
S.p.A. LT IDR B+ Affirmed B+
senior secured LT BB- New Rating RR3 BB-(EXP)
GOLDEN BAR 2026-1: Fitch Assigns 'BB+(EXP)sf' Rating to Cl. E Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Golden Bar (Securitisation) S.r.l. -
Series 2026-1 (GB 2026-1) notes expected ratings.
The assignment of final ratings is contingent on the receipt of
final documents conforming to information already reviewed.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Golden Bar
(Securitisation)
S.r.l. - Series 2026-1
A1 LT AA+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
A2 LT AA+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
B LT AA-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
C LT A(EXP)sf Expected Rating
D LT BBB+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
E LT BB+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Transaction Summary
GB 2026-1 will be a securitisation of unsecured consumer loans and
vehicles loans with standard and flexible amortisation repayment
granted to individuals ("persone fisiche") and individual
entrepreneur borrowers, by Santander Consumer Bank S.p.A. (SCB),
with a revolving period of nine months. SCB is wholly owned by
Santander Consumer Finance, S.A. (A/Stable/F1), the consumer credit
arm of Banco Santander, S.A. (A/Stable/F1).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Diverse Portfolio Composition: Fitch's base-case default
expectations are set at 6.1% for personal loans, 1.7% for new
vehicles and 3% for used vehicles. Fitch assigned the same base
case to flexible and standard auto loans, consistent with the
previous transaction as historical performance is not materially
different. Fitch assumes the portfolio's composition will be
broadly unchanged during the nine-month revolving period. In its
cash flow analysis, Fitch modelled the current portfolio without
applying stresses
Pro Rata Subject to Triggers: The class A to D notes will repay pro
rata until a sequential redemption event occurs. Fitch views a
switch to sequential amortisation as unlikely in the base case due
to the gap between its portfolio loss expectations and performance
triggers. The mandatory switch to sequential paydown, when the
collateral balance falls below a certain threshold, mitigates tail
risk.
No Servicing Fees Modelled: The deal envisages an amortising
replacement servicer fee reserve that will be funded on certain
triggers being breached. The reserve is adequate to cover its
stressed servicer fees at the notes' maximum achievable rating
throughout the transaction's life. Consequently, Fitch has not
modelled any servicing fees in its cash flow analysis, resulting in
the availability of higher excess spread to the structure.
Excess Spread Notes Rating Cap: The class E notes will be issued to
fund the cash reserve, are uncollateralised and interest and
principal will be paid from the available excess spread. The class
E notes will start amortising from the issue date. Fitch caps these
notes' ratings at 'BB+sf', in line with its Global Structured
Finance Rating Criteria.
'AA+sf' Sovereign Cap: The class A notes are rated at their highest
achievable rating, six notches above Italy's sovereign rating
(BBB+/Stable/F1), which is the cap for Italian structured finance
and covered bonds. The Stable Outlook on the class A notes reflects
that on the sovereign.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The rating on the class A notes, at the applicable rating cap, is
sensitive to changes in Italy's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating
(IDR), as a downgrade of Italy's IDR and downward revision of the
'AA+sf' rating cap for Italian structured finance transactions
would trigger downgrades of the notes rated at this level.
Unexpected increases in the frequency of defaults or decreases in
recovery rates that could produce loss levels larger than the base
case and could result in negative rating action on the notes. For
example, a simultaneous increase in the default base case by 25%
and decrease in the recovery base case by 25% would lead to a
downgrade of up to three notches of the class B to D notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
An upgrade of Italy's Long-Term IDR and revision of the related
rating cap for Italian structured finance transactions could
trigger an upgrade of the class A notes.
An unexpected decrease in the frequency of defaults or an increase
in the recovery rates could produce loss levels lower than the base
case. For example, a simultaneous decrease in the default base case
by 25% and an increase in the recovery base case by 25% would lead
to upgrades of up to three notches for the class B to D notes,
provided there are no other qualitative elements that could limit
the ratings.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Golden Bar (Securitisation) S.r.l. - Series 2026-1
Fitch reviewed the results of a third party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information, and concluded that there were no
findings that affected the rating analysis.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
===================
L U X E M B O U R G
===================
ARENA LUXEMBOURG: Moody's Affirms Ba3 CFR, Alters Outlook to Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has revised the outlook to stable from negative and
affirmed the long-term corporate family rating and probability of
default rating of Arena Luxembourg Investments S.a r.l. (Arena) at
Ba3 and Ba3-PD, respectively. At the same time Moody's have revised
the outlook to stable from negative and affirmed the ratings on the
backed senior secured notes due in 2028 and 2030 issued by Arena
Luxembourg Finance S.a r.l. at Ba3.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating affirmation and stable outlook reflects Moody's
expectations that Arena will continue to deliver strong operating
performance and maintain leverage metrics in line with the Ba3
ratio guidance over the next 12–18 months, namely a funds from
operations (FFO)/debt ratio at least 9% and a Moody's-adjusted Debt
to EBITDA ratio of no more than 7.5x.
In the first nine months of 2025, Arena demonstrated strong
results. Its adjusted revenue and EBITDA grew by 11% and 15%
(excluding the Turkey business), respectively, driven by both
organic growth and M&A activity. For the full year 2025, Moody's
expects that the company achieved double-digit growth, with
Moody's-adjusted EBITDA likely exceeding EUR120 million. At the
same time, the company issued additional debt to fund a one-off
special distribution of EUR75 million, limiting Arena's improvement
in debt leverage metrics. Furthermore, Moody's anticipates that the
company will continue to actively invest in organic and inorganic
growth with the capex level to remain high in 2026-2027, which
would result in negative free cash flow and may further require
drawing additional debt, although Moody's notes that most of the
growth capex is discretionary.
In 2026, Moody's expects Arena's recent growth to continue, driven
primarily by cost efficiencies and contribution from recent
acquisitions, allowing Moody's-adjusted EBITDA to reach
approximately EUR135 million. As a result, in 2026, Moody's expects
Arena's Moody's-adjusted FFO/debt to increase to above 10% and
Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA to improve to around 7x. Given that
deleveraging is primarily reliant on EBITDA growth, Moody's
identify potential risks if the company fails to achieve the
expected synergies from new contracts or acquisitions. However,
these risks are somewhat mitigated by the fact that the company has
been successful in executing its business plan and replacing
existing contracts in the past and has delivered a consistently
improving EBITDA margin.
More generally, as the holding company of the Empark Aparcamientos
y Servicios S.A. group (Empark), Arena benefits from a long track
record of operations and well-established position as a leading
car-park operator in Spain and Portugal; the strategic location of
Empark's assets, which mitigates competitive threats and demand
risk; a significant number of long-term off-street contracts, which
accounted for around 91% of the group's consolidated EBITDA as of
September 2025, providing a degree of medium-term visibility for
the group's future cash flow generation; a track record of cost
controls, digital penetration and commercial capabilities, which
have enabled the company to maintain its growing EBITDA; and
continued growth in like-for-like revenue above macro indicators.
At the same time, the ratings are constrained by Arena's high
financial leverage, with FFO/debt projected at 10%-11% for the next
12-18 months; the execution risks stemming from its strategy
focused on changing its operating model from a traditional parking
business into a more digitalised retailer; the renewal risk
associated with Empark's maturing concessions and contracts; the
competitive and fragmented nature of the car-parking sector in
Iberia; and Empark's relatively small size and limited geographical
diversification.
LIQUIDITY
Arena's liquidity is adequate. As of 30 September 2025, Arena had
around EUR60 million of available cash. In addition, the company
can draw on a EUR125 million revolving credit facility (RCF), which
is due 6 months before the senior secured floating rate notes as
long as the senior secured fixed rate notes are refinanced.
Arena's next significant maturity will be in February 2028 when the
company's EUR475 million notes become due. Scheduled debt
amortisation of non-recourse entities of the group is relatively
limited and will likely be covered with cash flow. Overall, Moody's
expects Arena's cash position and cash flow generation to allow the
company to cover its basic cash requirements over the next 12-18
months.
The company is subject to one springing financial covenant of
maximum 12x net consolidated debt/EBITDA, tested quarterly if the
RCF is 40% drawn. However, the financial covenant only acts as a
drawstop to new drawings under the RCF and, if breached, will not
trigger an event of default under the RCF. As of September 2025,
EUR30 million of the RCF were drawn.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The Ba3 ratings on Arena's senior secured notes are aligned with
the Ba3 CFR, reflecting the upstream guarantees and share pledges
from significant subsidiaries of the group. The Ba3 rating also
takes into account the presence of the relatively small super
senior RCF ranking ahead in the event of enforcement and its pari
passu ranking with other liabilities in the structure, such as
trade payables.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Arena will be
able to maintain a financial profile commensurate with the Ba3
rating, namely an FFO/debt ratio of at least 9% and a
Moody's-adjusted Debt to EBITDA ratio of no more than 7.5x.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Upward rating pressure could develop over time if the group reduces
leverage, such that its Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA remains below
6.5x and FFO/debt stays above 12%, both on a sustained basis.
Deleveraging would need to be coupled with a strong liquidity
position, successful replacement rates on existing contracts and a
carefully managed capital expenditure profile.
Conversely, Arena's ratings could be downgraded if Arena's
Moody's-adjusted Debt to EBITDA ratio would likely remain above
7.5x and the FFO to Debt ratio below 9% on a sustained basis, or
significant liquidity concerns were to arise.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Privately
Managed Toll Roads published in December 2022.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Arena Luxembourg Investments S.a r.l. is the holding company of
Empark and is majority-owned by Macquarie European Infrastructure
Fund 5 (MEIF5), which is managed by Macquarie Infrastructure and
Real Assets.
Empark is the largest car-park operator in the Iberian Peninsula by
number of parking spaces. The company's major geographical focus is
Spain and Portugal, where it generated 74% and 25% of its gross
margin, respectively, as of September 2025. Empark operates through
two main divisions: off-street (includes EV business) and on-street
concessions. In 2024, Empark reported revenue of EUR211 million and
adjusted EBITDA of EUR107 million.
GARFNKELUX HOLDCO 3: Fitch Affirms 'C' Rating on Sr. Secured Debt
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Garfunkelux Holdco 2 S.A.'s (Lowell)
Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'Restricted Default' (RD)
from 'C'. Fitch has affirmed Garfunkelux Holdco 3 S.A.'s (GH3)
senior secured debt rating at 'C' with a Recovery Rating (RR) of
'RR6'.
The downgrade follows the expiration of the original 30-day grace
period on a scheduled interest payment, which constitutes a
restricted default under Fitch's ratings definitions.
Key Rating Drivers
Expiration of the Original Grace Period: On 1 February 2026, Lowell
failed to meet the coupon payment on its EUR467 million
floating-rate senior secured notes due 2029 amid ongoing
discussions with its lenders on a debt restructuring. The original
30-day grace period ended on 3 March.
The Long-Term IDR of 'RD' indicates that an issuer has experienced
an uncured payment default or distressed debt exchange (DDE), but
has not entered into bankruptcy filings, administration, or other
formal winding-up procedure, or has not otherwise ceased operating.
This includes the uncured expiry of any applicable original grace
period following a payment default on financial obligations.
Grace Period Extension: Lowell secured a majority of noteholders'
support to extend the grace period to 120 days from 30 days in
relation to non-payment of certain upcoming interest payments for
its 2028 and 2029 senior secured notes. In addition, the company
extended the deadline for the 90% consent solicitation to 20 March
2026, which if successful, would allow it to change the payment due
date for the senior secured notes.
ESG - Governance: As the largest bondholder, Arini Capital
Management was permitted certain governance rights, including the
right to nominate an independent non-executive director to the
boards of certain Lowell entities. In its view, this results in
weakened creditor protection for the minority bondholders and
resulted in lower recovery expectations for the senior secured
notes.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A court-led implementation of a debt restructuring, which Fitch
would consider a DDE, or entering into bankruptcy filings,
administration, receivership, liquidation or other formal
winding-up procedure would result in a downgrade to 'D'.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Fitch would reassess the ratings upon the completion of a debt
restructuring process or if Lowell became current on its
outstanding debt again. The Long-Term IDR would reflect the
issuer's new capital structure and credit profile.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
The affirmation of the senior secured notes' debt rating at
'C'/'RR6' reflects Lowell's 'RD' IDR and Fitch's view of poor
recovery prospects, given a large amount of debt ranking senior to
the rated notes, including the new ABS facility and the recent
securitisation - Wolf IV - that remains on the balance sheet.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
The debt rating could be upgraded if Lowell's Long-Term IDR was
upgraded.
The debt rating is 'C', and therefore, cannot be downgraded.
ADJUSTMENTS
The 'rd' Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) is below the 'ccc+'
implied SCP due to the following adjustment reason: weakest link -
funding, liquidity and coverage (negative).
The 'b' business profile score is below the 'bbb' implied score due
to the following adjustment reason: business model (negative).
The 'ccc+' earnings and profitability score is below the 'bb'
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: earnings
stability (negative).
The 'rd' funding, liquidity and coverage score is below the 'b'
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: funding
flexibility (negative).
ESG Considerations
Lowell has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Governance Structure,
reflecting weaknesses related to the credit protection mechanism in
Lowell's senior secured notes, and certain governance rights
granted to the majority bondholder. This has a negative impact on
its credit profile and was highly relevant to the rating in
conjunction with other factors.
Lowell has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Customer Welfare -
Fair Messaging, Privacy & Data Security due to the importance of
fair collection practices and consumer interactions and the
regulatory focus on them, which has a negative impact on the credit
profile, and is relevant to the rating[s] in conjunction with other
factors.
Lowell has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Financial Transparency
due to the significance of internal modelling to portfolio
valuations and to associated metrics such as estimated remaining
collections, which has a negative impact on the credit profile, and
is relevant to the rating[s] in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Garfunkelux Holdco 3 S.A.
senior secured LT C Affirmed RR6 C
Garfunkelux Holdco 2 S.A. LT IDR RD Downgrade C
SES FINANCING: Moody's Rates New Junior Subordinated Notes 'Ba3'
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned a Ba3 rating to SES Financing S.a
r.l.'s proposed Junior Subordinated issuance of undated, deeply
subordinated, backed fixed rate reset securities (the new notes),
which are guaranteed by SES S.A. (SES or the company) and SES
AMERICOM, INC on a subordinated basis under certain conditions. The
outlook is stable.
At the same time, Moody's have affirmed the Ba1 long term corporate
family rating, the Ba1-PD probability of default rating, and the
ba2 Baseline Credit Assessment (BCA) of SES S.A. Moody's also have
affirmed the Ba1 ratings on the backed senior unsecured instrument
ratings, the (P)Ba1 ratings on the backed senior unsecured MTN
programme of SES and its subsidiary SES AMERICOM, INC, the Ba3
ratings on the backed junior subordinate (hybrid) ratings of SES,
and the Not-Prime (NP) on the short-term backed commercial paper
ratings of SES and SES AMERICOM, INC. The outlook on both entities
remains stable.
Proceeds from the new notes will be used for general corporate
purposes and to repay SES' upcoming debt maturities, including the
EUR625 million of perpetual backed junior subordinated notes
(EUR525 million outstanding) for which the company has launched a
tender.
"The Ba3 rating assigned to the new notes is two notches below SES'
Ba1 CFR primarily because the instrument is deeply subordinated to
other debt in the company's capital structure," says Agustin
Alberti, a Moody's Ratings Vice President - Senior Analyst and lead
analyst for SES.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Ba1 CFR incorporates SES' BCA of ba2, which represents Moody's
views of its standalone creditworthiness; and a one-notch uplift
based on Moody's assumptions of moderate support from the
Government of Luxembourg (Aaa stable) and a low default dependence
between the two entities. The Luxembourg government holds an
aggregate stake in SES of around 20%.
The rating takes into account SES' large scale and strong position
in satellite-based communications services, and the potential for
significant proceeds from the C-band spectrum monetisation.
The rating is constrained by the company's weak operating
performance and credit metrics following the combination with
Intelsat and by the intense competitive environment of the
satellite industry.
The Ba3 rating of the new notes reflects their junior subordinate
position that could switch to a position akin to preferred stock
upon certain events. The newly issued hybrids will receive 100%
equity credit under Moody's applicable methodology since they do
not have the ability to trigger bankruptcy (in line with existing
hybrids) but also do not offer its holders creditor rights in
bankruptcy via an automatic conversion into a claim akin to
preferred shares ahead of such a bankruptcy. Accordingly, Moody's
assigned a basket H (100% equity treatment) under Moody's Hybrid
Equity Credit methodology.
The new hybrids will improve SES' leverage because the new
instruments replace bonds Moody's treats as debt. Nevertheless, the
positive effect on SES' overall credit quality is only moderate.
The issuance does not offset some of the credit challenges the
company faces and cash flow expectations will slightly deteriorate
following this issuance, independently of equity treatment.
For 2026, SES's financial outlook points to both, revenue and
adjusted EBITDA, to be stable year-on-year at constant FX (2025
actuals were at EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.12). This would imply a
marginal absolute decline as the US dollar has so far, in 2026,
depreciated against the euro compared to 2025 levels. The company
also expects capital expenditures to be around EUR700 million
(including IRIS2 and first phase of meoSphere capital expenditures)
in 2026.
Following this issuance and updated projections, Moody's expects
leverage to slightly improve by 0.4x compared to Moody's previous
expectations with gross debt/EBITDA (as adjusted by Moody's) at
4.5x in 2026 and a significant reduction to 3.7x in 2027 owing to
the monetization of C-band spectrum and the use of proceeds for
debt reduction.
LIQUIDITY
SES's liquidity is adequate, supported by EUR674 million available
cash and cash equivalents as of December 2025; and by the
availability of a fully undrawn EUR1.2 billion revolving credit
facility, which matures in June 2028 and carries no financial
covenants.
Moody's expects that Moody's adjusted FCF will be negative over
2026-27. The new hybrids issuance transaction, together with
available cash on balance sheet and external liquidity sources,
will allow to cover for the EUR650 million backed senior unsecured
notes due in March 2026, and the tender offer for the outstanding
EUR525 million perpetual backed junior subordinate notes. In 2027,
the company will face additional refinancing requirements, with
EUR640 million backed senior unsecured notes maturing in May and
November.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
SES's PDR of Ba1-PD is at the same level as the CFR, reflecting the
use of the standard 50% family recovery rate assumption as is
customary for capital structures that include both term loans and
bonds.
The Ba3 rating on the hybrid bonds is two notches below SES' Ba1
long-term CFR, primarily because the instruments are deeply
subordinated to other debt instruments in the company's capital
structure.
The new notes rank junior to legacy hybrids. Upon certain trigger
events – the earlier of a downgrade of the CFR to Caa1,
insolvency or winding-up of the issuer or SES– the bondholder's
claim effectively changes into a claim for a "Conversion
Beneficiary Unit." Moody's views this as more akin to a preferred
share claim. These units can be issued under Luxembourg law and, in
SES' case, rank pari passu with the issuer's most senior class of
preferred shares. Moody's notes that SES has no preference shares
outstanding.
Upon the occurrence of the above mentioned trigger events, the debt
guarantee provided by SES Americom will be waived. At the same
time, the SES S.A. guarantee will no longer operate as a debt
guarantee and will instead remain solely in an equity-style
instrument at the level of SES S.A. aligned with the rights and
ranking of the Conversion Beneficiary Units, without conferring any
creditor claim, enforcement right or guarantee of principal or
interest.
If Moody's upgrade SES to investment grade in the future, the newly
issued hybrids revert to features that align with and rank pari
passu with legacy hybrids. Moody's assigned a basket M with 50%
equity credit for the legacy hybrids when SES was rated Baa3.
RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK
While leverage is currently high for the Ba1 rating, the stable
outlook reflects the expectation that the company will use the
proceeds from the C-band monetization in 2027 for debt reduction. A
second tranche of proceeds will be likely received in 2029,
providing further financial flexibility.
The stable outlook also reflects the expected stabilization in
operating performance over 2026-27, driven by a normalization of
the rate of decline in Video, coupled with robust growth in the
Government and Aviation segments and incremental contributions from
synergies from the integration with Intelsat.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
The ratings could be downgraded if competitive dynamics in the
satellite industry drive further pricing pressures such that the
company's operating performance deteriorates relative to Moody's
revised forecasts; its gross debt/EBITDA (Moody's-adjusted) does
not fall comfortably below 4.0x and its FCF turns negative on a
sustained basis; or the Luxembourg government or its wholly owned
investment affiliates reduce their aggregate economic ownership in
SES below the current level of around 20% (leading to SES no longer
being considered a Government-related Issuer), which could result
in a one-notch downgrade.
Conversely, the ratings could be upgraded if the company's
operating performance materially improves with steady growth in its
revenue and profit which would allow the company to generate
positive FCF and reduce its leverage (Moody's-adjusted gross
debt/EBITDA) to below 3.5x on a sustained basis.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The methodologies used in these ratings were Communications
Infrastructure published in September 2025.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in Luxembourg, SES S.A. is a leading company in the
fixed-satellite services (FSS) market. The Government of
Luxembourg, together with its wholly owned state banks, Banque et
Caisse d'Epargne de l'Etat (senior unsecured: Aa3 stable) and
Societe Nationale de Credit et d'Investisseme, owns around 20% of
SES.
===================
M O N T E N E G R O
===================
MONTENEGRO: Moody's Affirms Ba3 Issuer Rating, Outlook Now Pos.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has changed the outlook on the Government of
Montenegro to positive from stable, and affirmed its Ba3 foreign
currency long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings as well
as its Not Prime (NP) foreign currency short-term issuer rating.
The change of the outlook to positive reflects Montenegro's strong
momentum in implementing reforms under the European Union (EU, Aaa
stable) accession process, which supports improvements in
institutional quality and raises the prospect for the country to
join the EU by the end of the decade, unlocking multiple credit
benefits associated with the full membership. Such benefits would
include entrenching institutional improvements through integration
into the EU structures, gaining full access to the EU's single
market and the EU cohesion funds, which would strengthen its
medium-term growth potential, and—eventually—joining the euro
area currency union, which would mitigate Montenegro's external
vulnerability risks.
The affirmation of the ratings at Ba3 is supported by the balance
of Montenegro's key credit strengths and challenges: (1) its high
per-capita income relative to peers, which is balanced by the very
small scale of its economy that constrains diversification and
makes growth dynamics vulnerable to external shocks; (2) its
elevated government debt burden and fiscal risks related to the
multi-stage Bar-Boljare highway project, balanced by favorable debt
affordability metrics; and (3) elevated external vulnerability
risks, underscored by its very large structural current account
deficits and heavy reliance on external funding.
Montenegro's foreign-currency country ceiling remains Baa2. In the
context of euroization, Montenegro does not have a local currency
country ceiling. The four-notch gap between the foreign-currency
ceiling and the sovereign issuer rating reflects adequate
predictability of institutions and government policy making, a
contained government footprint in the economy and the financial
system, and manageable political risk, balanced against persistence
of large external imbalances.
RATINGS RATIONALE
RATIONALE FOR CHANGING THE OUTLOOK TO POSITIVE FROM STABLE IS THE
STRONG REFORM MOMENTUM UNDER THE EU ACCESSION PROCESS
Since Moody's last rating action in September 2024, Montenegro
provisionally closed 10 new negotiating chapters with the EU,
including six during the past three months. This acceleration
contrasts with a sluggish start to the accession process during
2012-17, when the government closed only three chapters, followed
by an extended pause until December 2024. The acceleration
underscores the current government's commitment to advancing EU
accession with a stated goal of closing all the remaining 20
chapters before the end of 2026 and joining the EU by the end of
2028.
While Moody's considers these targets to be very ambitious—given
the limited time to pass all the required legislation and meet the
necessary benchmarks that include track record of
implementation—the preparations related to most of the remaining
chapters are well advanced. Moreover, the legislative process and
implementation assessment could, in principle, continue up until
the parliament's pre-election recess, which is likely to start in
April 2027, and then resume after the elections scheduled for
June.
Opinion polls indicate that more than 70% of Montenegro's
population, and all key political parties favor EU accession. This
increases the likelihood that the upcoming election will produce
another coalition government that will be committed to completing
the accession process, albeit the pace could slow, depending on the
composition of the next coalition.
Notwithstanding the strong legislative momentum to date, the pace
of closing additional chapters could also slow because of
Montenegro's mixed track record of implementation. This mainly
applies to benchmarks related to the judiciary and rule of law
chapters. Closing these chapters will require building a credible
track record of final convictions, particularly in high-level
corruption cases, demonstrating independence of the judicial and
prosecutorial councils, reducing significant case backlogs,
especially in administrative courts, furnishing evidence of
effective application of the asset recovery and confiscation law,
and aligning border and migration management with EU standards.
Progress in some of these areas has been hampered by political
disagreements, but is also constrained by limited administrative
capacity to implement changes and enforce new legislation.
The pace of reform implementation over the coming 12 to 18 months,
along with clarity around the policy direction adopted by the next
government, will inform Moody's expectations for the timing of
Montenegro's prospective EU membership. It will also indicate the
extent to which reforms, linked to the closing of the remaining
chapters, have the potential to improve quality and effectiveness
of Montenegro's institutions, which in itself would be credit
positive. This period will also give us additional time to assess
the appetite of the current EU members for further enlargement.
RATIONALE FOR THE AFFIRMATION
SOLID GROWTH PROSPECTS ARE BALANCED BY LOW DIVERSIFICATION
Montenegro's PPP-adjusted per-capita income of $32,566 in 2024
compares favorably to the median of the Ba3-rated peers ($21,813)
as well as some regional peers such as Albania (Ba3 stable,
$21,813). This supports Montenegro's economic resilience and its
capacity to absorb shocks.
However, Montenegro's very small economic scale, with GDP of $8.3
billion in 2024, along with its high reliance on the tourism sector
(more than 20% of GDP), positions Montenegro among the least
diversified economies, which exposes its growth dynamics to
external shocks. While the influx of tourists and migrants related
to the Russia-Ukraine conflict provided a significant boost to
growth during 2022-23, the coronavirus pandemic shock in 2020 led
to a 15% real GDP contraction, one of the largest globally.
Montenegro's exposure to rising energy prices as a result of the
ongoing Iran conflict is more limited compared to most other
European sovereigns. Although its imports of transportation fuels
are material, at around 3.7% of GDP, Montenegro's electricity
generation—split between hydropower and domestically-sourced
coal—does not depend on energy imports.
In the baseline scenario Moody's expects the economy to grow
annually at around 3.0 to 3.5% during 2026-28, broadly in line with
the last two years and the longer-term trend before the pandemic.
This is a slowdown from unusually high rates during 2021-23 which
benefitted from the post-pandemic tourism recovery and the one-off
effect of the inflow of migrants and capital from Russia. However,
Montenegro's medium-term growth prospects are solid and will be
supported by large-scale infrastructure projects, partly funded by
grants and concessional lending under the EU's Growth Plan for the
Western Balkans, which includes EUR384 million (4.7% of GDP)
earmarked for Montenegro.
The key projects include the second phase of the Bar-Boljare
highway, which is set to start in 2026, several railway
infrastructure upgrades and extensions, as well as the Tivat-Budva
coastal road upgrade. Growth will also benefit from foreign direct
investment (FDI) inflows into the tourism and renewable energy
sectors, the latter being driven by Montenegro's existing
underwater connection with Italy (Baa2 stable), which underpins its
potential as a platform for electricity exports to the EU.
More effective absorption of available infrastructure funds over
the coming years and stronger ability to attract FDI in the context
of Montenegro's prospective EU accession present an upside risk to
the medium-term growth outlook. Meanwhile, ongoing and planned
investments in transportation infrastructure are set to boost
Montenegro's tourism potential, including through the expansion of
the capacity of the Podgorica airport through a long-term
private-public partnership concession, for which the tender is
close to being finalized.
FAVORABLE DEBT AFFORDABILITY BALANCES ELEVATED DEBT BURDEN AND
RISKS RELATED TO THE HIGHWAY PROJECT
The government's debt burden has declined significantly since the
peak of more than 106% of GDP in 2020, but at nearly 60% of GDP at
the end of 2024 remains higher than the Ba3-rated median of 54.3%
of GDP and Eastern Europe and CIS median of 43.3% of GDP. In
contrast, Montenegro has relatively favorable debt affordability
metrics, with government interest payment at 4.8% of revenue (2.0%
of GDP) in 2024, below the Ba3-rated median of 9.8% of revenue
(2.9% of GDP).
Moody's expects general government deficits will average around 4%
of GDP in the coming years. This reflects Moody's assumptions that
the room to implement significant fiscal consolidation ahead of the
upcoming elections will be limited, especially in the context of
spending commitments for several large infrastructure projects. The
deficit widened to 4.3% of GDP in 2025 from 3.3% of GDP in 2024,
above the 3.7% of GDP budget target, due to a combination of weaker
revenue collection and higher spending. Although revenue was in
line with the budget plan, it was weaker than in 2024 when measured
relative to GDP as a result of the tax reform, which significantly
reduced social security contributions. Meanwhile, non-interest
expenditure exceeded the 2024 level by around 0.5% of GDP, mainly
due to higher capital spending.
Moody's fiscal projections for the coming years point to the
general government gross debt burden stabilizing at around 65% of
GDP. While this is above the government's long-term target of less
than 60%, the increase is at least partly due to the accumulation
of additional liquidity buffers in the form of government deposits,
which nearly doubled to 9.7% of GDP in 2025.
Ongoing improvements in tax administration and the anticipated
increase in the recurring revenue related to the pending Podgorica
airport concession have the potential to strengthen revenue
performance and narrow the deficits beyond Moody's baseline
projections. However, despite these near-term positive fiscal
trends, Moody's views the balance of fiscal risks over the medium
term as being mostly skewed to the downside.
These risks are mainly related to the multi-stage Bar-Boljare
highway project. Based on the available estimates of the cost of
constructing the remaining sections three sections of the highway,
completing the full project will likely require the government to
spend an equivalent of 2.5-3.5% of GDP each year for the next 10
years. The impact of such a large spending commitment on the
government's debt metrics will depend on how much of the
highway-related expense will be covered by future EU grants and to
what extent the remaining amount will be accommodated within the
government's medium-term fiscal deficit target of less than 3% of
GDP.
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS
Montenegro's CIS-3 Credit Impact Score indicates that ESG
considerations currently have a limited impact on the sovereign's
credit profile, although moderate environmental and social risks
could exert greater negative pressure over time, while governance
risks remain low. The E-3 issuer profile score reflects exposure to
physical climate risks and challenges related to natural capital
and waste and pollution, which could weigh on economic
performance—particularly tourism, agriculture and transport—if
adaptation investment remains insufficient. The S-3 score captures
moderate social risks, notably adverse demographics and
labor-market skill mismatches that constrain growth and pose
longer-term fiscal risks. Governance risks are limited (G-2),
although regulatory and administrative weaknesses continue to
affect the business environment; ongoing EU-accession-related
reforms should gradually strengthen institutions and support higher
growth potential.
GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 32,566 (2024) (also known as Per
Capita Income)
Real GDP growth (% change): 3.2% (2024) (also known as GDP Growth)
Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 2.5% (2024)
Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -3.3% (2024) (also known as Fiscal
Balance)
Current Account Balance/GDP: -17.1% (2024) (also known as External
Balance)
External debt/GDP: [not available]
Economic resiliency: ba1
Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been
recorded since 1983.
On March 10, 2026, a rating committee was called to discuss the
rating of the Montenegro, Government of. The main points raised
during the discussion were: The issuer's economic fundamentals,
including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The
issuer's institutions and governance strength, have not materially
changed. The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its
debt profile, has materially decreased. The issuer's susceptibility
to event risks has not materially changed.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE
Increasing confidence that reform implementation is materially
transforming the quality of Montenegro's institutions and will
increase the likelihood of further credit improvements thanks to
the institutional and economic benefits of EU membership would
likely lead to an upgrade. An acceleration of fiscal consolidation
efforts that place the government debt burden on a firm declining
path would also exert upward pressure on the rating. Positive
credit pressure would also result from a material reduction in
external vulnerability risks, such as through a durable reduction
in external imbalances.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO A DOWNGRADE
Stalling of the EU accession related reform momentum would likely
prompt us to stabilize the rating, unless compensated by
significant improvements in the fiscal and economic outlook.
Negative credit pressure would also arise from a significant
deterioration in the government's fiscal position, including due to
crystallization of risks related to the Bar-Boljare highway
project, pointing to a steadily rising government debt burden in
the coming years. Further significant increase in Montenegro's
external imbalances or evidence of government liquidity challenges
would also exert negative pressure on the rating.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereigns
published in November 2022.
The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology
used in this credit rating action, if applicable.
Montenegro's "ba2" economic strength is set below the initial score
of "baa3" to reflect its limited diversification and infrastructure
constraints compared to peers as well as its very narrow export
base that makes the economy vulnerable to fluctuations in
international demand. The "baa2" fiscal strength score is two
notches below the initial score of "a3" to reflect the fiscal risks
posed by the four-stage Bar-Boljare highway project. This leads to
a final scorecard-indicated outcome of Ba1-Ba3, compared to the
initial scorecard-indicated outcome of Baa1-Baa3. The assigned Ba3
rating is inside the final scorecard-indicated outcome range.
=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================
BOELS TOPHOLDING: Fitch Affirms 'BB-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Boels Topholding B.V.'s Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a Stable Outlook. Fitch also
affirmed Boels' senior secured debt rating at 'BB-'.
Key Rating Drivers
Solid European Franchise: Boels' Long-Term IDR reflects its
franchise as Europe's second-largest equipment rental company,
long-dated funding profile and management's experience in
maintaining liquidity through periods of changeable capex
requirements. It also takes into account Boels' exposure to the
cyclical construction sector, recent volatility of margins and
profitability, and high leverage.
Construction Volumes Stagnation Pressures Demand: About half of
Boels' revenue is sourced from various construction and related
end-markets, to which the company provides a wide range of
equipment on rental. Fitch believes equipment demand will remain
under pressure over the medium term due to slow construction
activity. Over the longer term Fitch expects a gradual volumes
recovery, which would increase rental equipment demand and support
the company's revenue. The longer-term trend of customers
preferring to lease rather than buying equipment should also
support rental demand.
Granular Client Base: Boels has about 670,000 clients, including
individuals as well as small, medium-sized, and large companies,
with its top 10 clients representing a modest 5% of total revenue
in 2025. Boels' business is well diversified across equipment and
customer types, with more than 800 depots across its markets.
Discretionary Capex Supports Liquidity: Boels has demonstrated its
capacity to manage capex and maintain liquidity through fluctuating
economic conditions. Its corporate governance practices are
adequate and its shareholder has historically reinvested most
earnings in the business to support further growth. Capex is
discretionary to an extent in the short term, enabling the company
to moderate spending at a time of reduced cash inflows; however,
reinvestment is required over the longer term to maintain an
attractive fleet.
Long-Term Growth Trend, Adequate Depreciation: The equipment rental
market has grown considerably over the past 15 years as customers
increasingly choose to rent rather than buy, and Fitch expects this
trend to continue through the current cycle. Larger operators, such
as Boels, benefit from strong brand recognition and the ability to
shift equipment between locations to manage utilisation.
Boels' average fleet age was around 62 months in 2025,
significantly below its average useful life. However, according to
management, the company may consider using certain equipment types
for longer, which in its view, should delay replacement capex and
support the company's leverage over the medium term. Boels'
depreciation assumptions remain appropriate, with limited incidence
of impairments or losses on disposal. Equipment sales do not
constitute a major revenue source.
Pressured EBITDA, Acquisition Benefits: Boels' EBITDA came under
pressure in 2025 as higher operating costs outpaced moderate
revenue growth. The preliminary EBITDA margin declined to 32% from
34% and the company reported a net loss. Management expects
profitability to improve in 2026, supported by lower capex and
operating and interest expense, and synergies from its Riwal
acquisition. Boels has already repriced its term loan, cutting the
cost by 25bp, which should provide some support, but Fitch
considers the company's broader cost-reduction targets to be
ambitious. Fitch has thus tightened the negative rating sensitivity
for leverage due to weak profitability.
Deleveraging Delayed: Boels' cash flow leverage increased slightly
to 4.4x at end-2025 (2024: 4.3x), remaining well above Fitch's
positive rating sensitivity of 3.5x. Fitch does not expect a
meaningful reduction in leverage before 2027, given a challenging
operating environment and pressured EBITDA, although management
targets to reduce leverage by end-2026 through capex optimisation,
cost reductions and only moderate dividends. Fitch believes weak
construction activity and possible longer-term fleet renewal needs
will continue to constrain deleveraging. The 2024 acquisition of
Riwal also increased goodwill, leaving Boels with net tangible
liabilities.
Long-Dated Funding: Boels' funding profile remains broadly
unchanged, comprising about EUR1 billion of senior secured notes,
an EUR1.1 billion term loan and EUR400 million leasing liabilities
(largely premises), with liquidity supported by a largely undrawn
EUR300 million revolving credit facility and some capex
flexibility. In 2026, Boels secured a 25bp pricing reduction for
its term loan, supporting interest coverage (EBITDA/interest 4.9x
in 2025). Boels' notes will mature in 2029, and Fitch expects them
to be refinanced ahead of maturity.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Material reduction in EBITDA, either from lower fleet utilisation
or from rising costs, resulting in gross debt/EBITDA exceeding 5x
- Reduction in EBITDA interest coverage to 3x on a sustained basis
- Insufficient liquidity to support the capex required to maintain
a reasonable fleet
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Reduction in leverage to below 3.5x, accompanied by ongoing sound
management of capex and liquidity
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
Boels' debt is classified as secured, but in the absence of direct
security over operating assets, Fitch rates it in line with the
Long-Term IDR (as it would an unsecured obligation), indicating
average recovery prospects.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
The debt ratings are primarily sensitive to a change in Boels'
Long-Term IDR. Should Boels introduce any debt secured on operating
assets ranking above rated instruments (or a subordinated tranche
below them), Fitch could notch the debt ratings down (or up) from
the Long-Term IDR, on the basis of weaker (or stronger) recovery
prospects.
ADJUSTMENTS
Boels' 'bb-' Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) is in line with the
implied SCP.
The 'bbb' sector risk operating environment score is in line with
the 'bbb' category implied score.
The 'bb' business profile score is below the 'bbb' category implied
score due to the following adjustment reason: business model
(negative).
The 'bb' asset quality score is below the 'a' category implied
score due to the following adjustment reason: risk profile and
business model (negative).
The 'bb-' earnings and profitability score is below the 'a'
category implied score due to the following adjustment reasons:
revenue diversification (negative).
The 'b+' capitalisation and leverage score is in line with the 'b'
category implied score.
The 'bb-' funding, liquidity and coverage score is in line with the
'bb' category implied score.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Boels Topholding B.V. LT IDR BB- Affirmed BB-
senior secured LT BB- Affirmed BB-
===========
P O L A N D
===========
CITY OF ZABRZE: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT IDRs, Alters Outlook to Pos.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised The City of Zabrze's Outlook to Positive
from Stable while affirming its Long-Term Foreign-and
Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BB'.
The Outlook revision reflects stronger 2025 operating performance
than anticipated in its rating case, following the implementation
of the city's prudential budget programme. Zabrze's debt metrics
remain in line with the rating but Fitch expects them to improve to
levels consistent with a 'BB+' IDR over the medium term. The level
of improvement and its sustainability will depend on continued
successful implementation of revenue-increasing and cost-saving
measures as well as debt discipline under the prudential programme
in 2026 and beyond.
The city's IDRs are derived from its 'bb' Standalone Credit Profile
(SCP) and no other factors apply to the ratings.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Zabrze's 'bb' SCP reflects a combination of a 'Midrange' risk
profile and a 'bbb' financial profile. It also factors in peer
comparison and is not affected by any asymmetric risk.
Risk Profile: 'Midrange'
Zabrze's 'Midrange' risk profile reflects the following combination
of key risk factors assessments:
Revenue Robustness: 'Midrange'
Zabrze's revenue sources are stable and are aligned with national
GDP growth prospects. Income taxes are the major revenue,
accounting for over 50% of 2025 total revenue, and rely on
moderately cyclical activities. Transfers from the state
represented about 16% of total revenue, while real estate tax
accounts for over 10%. Both items' growth is linked to inflation.
Following the law changes in 2025, Fitch expects operating revenue
growth to slow to an average 3%-4% annually in 2026-2030, versus
7.1% in 2021-2025. Revenue, however, should be stable and
predictable, unlike in prior years, when the city received ad-hoc
supplementary funds in 4Q, and should benefit budget planning.
Revenue Adjustability: 'Midrange'
Its assessment reflects the equalisation mechanism under the local
and regional governments' (LRG) revenue law, which offsets the
city's limited fiscal flexibility. Zabrze would qualify for
equalisation funding if its per-capita tax revenue (over 60% of
total revenue) fell below 80% of its LRG tier average, leading to a
larger subsidy from the central government. However, the city is
above the threshold and therefore does not qualify for this
funding. The system also ensures an automatic increase in the
general state subsidy if income tax revenue grows more slowly than
financial needs.
Expenditure Sustainability: 'Midrange'
Zabrze's main responsibilities, including education, family and
social care, public transport, municipal services and
administration, are largely non-cyclical. The city adopted a
prudential budget programme in 2024, following liquidity challenges
from accumulated postponed payments and understated opex. This led
to layoffs in the city hall, and reorganisation of educational and
cultural institutions, which allowed the city to keep 2025
expenditure broadly unchanged from 2024.
Fitch expects the city to continue optimising opex, while
maintaining tight capex control. Fitch forecasts opex growth to
average 3%-4% annually, in line with operating revenue. The city
will focus on externally co-financed capex projects that generate
opex savings.
Expenditure Adjustability: 'Midrange'
The city's budget is subject to balanced budget rules. Zabrze's
mandatory responsibilities represent about 90% of its total
expenditure, limiting its spending flexibility, although the city
has been cutting spending on mandatory tasks where possible. Capex
is partly flexible, allowing for phased implementation and
postponement. Fitch expects capex to be at 9% (PLN744 million in
total) of total expenditure in 2026-2030, down from 14.5% in
2021-2025. Zabrze's long-term capex commitment to support its
municipal companies (stadium and football club) averages PLN26
million a year.
Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: 'Midrange'
Polish LRGs must align debt servicing with their operating balances
and maintain an amortising repayment structure. Zabrze's debt
extends to 2045 with a smooth repayment schedule. It totalled
PLN1,031 million at end-2025, down from PLN1,091 million at
end-2024, and is solely in Polish zloty, eliminating currency risk.
However, 88% carries floating rates, exposing the city to
interest-rate risk, as LRGs cannot use derivatives. Its PLN354
million state loan under the prudential programme has preferential
terms, including a three-year grace period and 2045 maturity. The
loan is subject to specific prerequisites and conditions on future
debt, including The Ministry of Finance approval.
Fitch treats liabilities of non-self-supporting municipal companies
as other Fitch-classified debt. These totalled PLN128 million at
end-2025 (PLN127 million at end-2024) and will decline gradually to
PLN35 million in 2030.
Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: 'Midrange'
Counterparty risk is moderate. Banks providing liquidity in Poland
are rated between 'BBB-' and 'A+'. The central government provides
no emergency liquidity support. Zabrze has a PLN70 million
overdraft facility with Bank Pekao S.A. (BBB+/Stable). Available
liquidity should cover the city's spending throughout 2026,
although new debt may be required in the final months to finance
any budget deficit. Cash at end-2025 was PLN64 million (PLN181
million at end-2024), while the average month-end cash balance in
2025 was PLN186 million. Projected debt servicing in 2026 is PLN102
million.
Financial Profile: 'bbb category'
Fitch classifies Zabrze as a Type B LRG, as it must cover debt
service from cash flow annually. Under its rating case, payback
(net adjusted debt/operating balance) should improve to below 15x
in 2029-2030, from 15.5x in 2025, within the 'bbb' category. The
city's fiscal debt burden will remain 'aa' at over 70% of operating
revenue to end-2030. Fitch expects synthetic debt service coverage
ratio (operating balance/synthetic debt amortisation including
short-term maturities) to remain weak at 0.7x, consistent with a
'b' score. This metric typically understates Polish LRGs'
performance, as it calculates debt annuities for 15 years, while
loan agreements are usually longer.
Fitch forecasts the city's operating balance to gradually rise to
an average PLN73 million in 2026-2030 in its rating case, from
PLN71 million in 2025 and a PLN30 million deficit in 2024, as it
implemented various revenue-enhancing and cost-cutting initiatives.
Sustained progress will depend on the city's continued efforts
under the prudential programme. Net adjusted debt will rise by
PLN48 million to PLN1,143 million in 2030, as new borrowing under
the programme is limited and partly offset by declining municipal
company debt.
National Ratings
Fitch upgraded Zabrze's National Rating to 'BBB+(pol)' from
'BBB(pol)' following the revision of Outlook to Positive on the
city's Long-Term Local Currency IDR due to its improving financial
profile. The National Rating is the higher of two options mapping
to a 'BB' IDR on Fitch's National Rating scale. The Outlook on the
National Rating is Stable.
Peer Analysis
Zabrze has no direct peers with a 'Midrange' risk profile and a
'bb' SCP category. The nearest Polish peer is The City of Chorzow,
which has a better payback than Zabrze and thus an SCP of 'bbb-'.
Zabrze's closest international peers in risk profile and SCP are
Italian regions, The City of Naples and the Portuguese Region of
Azores, but they are hardly comparable due to different
responsibilities and funding sources as well as the size of its
territories and population. All of them have similar payback ratios
and debt service ratios to Zabrze, but most have significantly
larger fiscal debt burden.
Issuer Profile
Zabrze is an urban county in the Slaskie region with about 152,000
inhabitants at end-2024. Its tax base is diversified but weaker
than that of other rated Polish cities. The unemployment rate was
5.4% at end-2025 (Poland: 5.7%).
Key Assumptions
Qualitative Assumptions, their respective change since the last
review and weight in the rating decision:
Risk Profile: 'Midrange, Unchanged with Low weight'
Revenue Robustness: 'Midrange, Unchanged with Low weight'
Revenue Adjustability: 'Midrange, Unchanged with Low weight'
Expenditure Sustainability: 'Midrange, Unchanged with Low weight'
Expenditure Adjustability: 'Midrange, Unchanged with Low weight'
Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: 'Midrange, Unchanged with Low
weight'
Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: 'Midrange, Unchanged with
Low weight'
Financial Profile: 'bbb, Improved with High weight'
Asymmetric Risk: 'N/A, Unchanged with Low weight'
Support (Budget Loans): 'N/A, Unchanged with Low weight'
Support (Ad Hoc): 'N/A, Unchanged with Low weight'
Rating Cap (LT IDR): 'N/A, Unchanged with Low weight'
Rating Cap (LT LC IDR) 'N/A, Unchanged with Low weight'
Rating Floor: 'N/A, Unchanged with Low weight'
Quantitative assumptions - Issuer Specific
Its rating action is driven by quantitative assumptions about
reference metrics under its 2026-2030 rating case. These include
their respective changes since the last review and weights in the
rating decision:
- Payback ratio: 14.5x in 2030; Improved with High weight
- Synthetic debt service coverage ratio: 0.7x in 2030; Unchanged
with Low weight
- Fiscal debt burden: 71.6% in 2030; Improved with Low weight
Fitch's rating case is a "through-the-cycle" scenario, which
incorporates a combination of revenue, cost and financial risk
stresses. It is based on 2021-2025 published figures and 2026-2030
projected ratios. The key assumptions for the scenario include:
- Annual average 3.4% increase in operating revenue, including tax
revenue growth of 4.3% and transfers received of 1.9% linked to the
growth of GDP and inflation, respectively, while local taxes and
fees should be additionally boosted by actions under the prudential
programme
- Annual average 3.5% increase in opex due to expected inflation
just above 3% in 2026-2027, before easing to 2.5% from 2028 on
further spending optimisations from the city's administration
- Negative net capital balance on average at PLN55 million a year,
considering uncertainty about the timing and amount of available
non-returnable EU and national capital grants, as well as limited
self-financing possibilities
- Average cost of debt of 4.4% a year in 2026-2030, down from 5% a
year in 2021-2025, and long-term maturities of new debt at a
minimum 15 years
Quantitative assumptions - Sovereign Related
Figures as per Fitch's sovereign estimates for 2025 and forecasts
for 2026-2027, respectively (no weights and changes since the last
review are included as none of these assumptions were material to
the rating action):
- GDP per capita (US dollar, market exchange rate): 28,532.37;
31,638.9; 33,164.09
- Real GDP growth (%): 3.6; 3.6; 2.9
- Policy interest rate (end-year; %): 4; 3.75; 3.5
- Consumer prices (annual average % change): 3.34; 2.8; 3.2
- General government balance (% of GDP): -7.; -6.68; -6.21
- General government debt (% of GDP): 59.3; 65.3; 69.6
- Current account balance plus net FDI (% of GDP): 0.13; 0.73;
0.58
- Net external debt (% of GDP): 1.23; 0.05; -0.34
- IMF Development Classification: EM
- CDS Market Implied Rating: 'A-'
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A debt payback ratio returning to above 15x on a sustained basis
under Fitch's rating case could lead to an Outlook revision to
Stable.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A debt payback ratio remaining equal to, or lower than, 15x on a
sustained basis under Fitch's rating case could lead to an
upgrade.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Discussion Note
Committee date: 12 March 2025
There was an appropriate quorum at the committee and the members
confirmed that they were free from recusal. It was agreed that the
data was sufficiently robust relative to its materiality. During
the committee no material issues were raised that were not in the
original committee package. The main rating factors under the
relevant criteria were discussed by the committee members. The
rating decision as discussed in this rating action commentary
reflects the committee discussion.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Zabrze, City of LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
LC LT IDR BB Affirmed BB
Natl LT BBB+(pol)Upgrade BBB(pol)
=========
S P A I N
=========
SANTANDER CONSUMO 10: Moody's Assigns (P)B3 Rating to Class F Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned provisional ratings to Notes to be
issued by SANTANDER CONSUMO 10, FONDO DE TITULIZACION:
EUR []M Class A1 Floating Rate Asset Backed Notes due May 2041,
Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
EUR []M Class A2 Floating Rate Asset Backed Notes due May 2041,
Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
EUR []M Class B Floating Rate Asset Backed Notes due May 2041,
Assigned (P)Aa1 (sf)
EUR []M Class C Floating Rate Asset Backed Notes due May 2041,
Assigned (P)A2 (sf)
EUR []M Class D Floating Rate Asset Backed Notes due May 2041,
Assigned (P)Baa3 (sf)
EUR []M Class E Floating Rate Asset Backed Notes due May 2041,
Assigned (P)Ba3 (sf)
EUR []M Class F Floating Rate Asset Backed Notes due May 2041,
Assigned (P)B3 (sf)
RATINGS RATIONALE
The transaction is 11-month revolving cash securitisation of
Spanish unsecured consumer loans originated by Banco Santander,
S.A. (Spain) ("Santander") (A1/P-1; A2(cr)/P-1(cr)) to private
obligors residing in Spain. Santander also acts as servicer, swap
counterparty, collection account bank and issuer account bank
provider of the transaction.
The provisional portfolio consists of approximately EUR1,790.0
million of loans as of January 14, 2026 pool cut-off date. A final
portfolio of EUR1,400.0 million will be randomly selected from the
provisional portfolio to match the final collateralised notes
issuance amount. The weighted average remaining maturity of the
provisional portfolio is 5.6 years and the weighted average
seasoning is 0.9 years. 67.6% of the loans in this pool were used
to finance living expenses, 6.2% for home improvements and 7.2% for
the purchase of vehicles. All the loans are fixed-rate loans.
Around 85.3% of the provisional portfolio is composed of
pre-approved loans where the borrower was offered an unsecured
consumer loan up to a maximum amount without initiating an
application process. Pre-approved loans require the borrower to be
an active customer of Santander and meet a minimum behavioural
scoring.
The Reserve Fund will be funded to 2.0% of the collateralised notes
balance at closing with the issuance of Class F Notes, and the
total credit enhancement for the Class A Notes (Class A1 notes and
Class A2 notes) will be 22.0%.
The ratings are primarily based on the credit quality of the
portfolio, the structural features of the transaction and its legal
integrity.
The transaction benefits from credit strengths such as the
granularity of the portfolio, securitisation experience of
Santander, a reserve fund sized at 2.0% of the total collateralized
notes balance at closing, and credit enhancement provided via
subordination of the Notes. However, Moody's notes that the
transaction features a number of credit weaknesses, such as (i) a
complex structure including interest deferral triggers for junior
notes, (ii) pro-rata payments on Classes A-E Notes from the first
payment date, (iii) eleven-months revolving period which could
increase performance volatility of the underlying portfolio, and
(iv) the relatively high linkage to Santander, which is acting as
an originator, servicer, swap counterparty, account bank and paying
agent. Various mitigants have been put in place in the transaction
structure, such as early amortisation and sequential redemption
triggers and strict eligibility criteria on both individual loan
and portfolio level.
Hedging: all the loans are fixed-rate loans, whereas the Notes are
floating-rate liabilities. As a result, the issuer is subjected to
a fixed-floating interest-rate mismatch. To mitigate the
fixed-floating rate mismatch, the issuer has entered into a swap
agreement with Santander. Under the swap agreement, (i) the issuer
pays a fixed rate of [ ]%, (ii) the swap counterparty pays 3M
Euribor, (iii) the notional will be tracking the outstanding
balance of the non-defaulted loans in the portfolio.
Moody's analysis focused, amongst other factors, on (i) an
evaluation of the underlying portfolio of loans at closing and
incremental risk due to loans being added during the revolving
period; (ii) the historical performance information of the total
book and past ABS transactions originated by Santander; (iii) the
credit enhancement provided by the subordination, the excess spread
and the reserve fund; (iv) the liquidity support available in the
transaction, by way of principal to pay interest, and the reserve
fund and (v) the overall legal and structural integrity of the
transaction.
MAIN MODEL ASSUMPTIONS
Moody's determined a portfolio lifetime expected mean default rate
of 5.0%, expected recoveries of 15.0% and portfolio credit
enhancement ("PCE") of 17.5%. The expected mean default rate and
recoveries capture Moody's expectations of performance considering
the current economic outlook, while the PCE captures the loss
Moody's expects the portfolio to suffer in the event of a severe
recession scenario. Expected defaults and PCE are parameters used
by us to calibrate its lognormal portfolio loss distribution curve
and to associate a probability with each potential future loss
scenario in the ABSROM cash flow model to rate Consumer ABS.
Portfolio expected mean default rate of 5.0% is in line with recent
Spanish consumer loan transaction average, and is based on Moody's
assessments of the lifetime expectation for the pool, taking into
account: (i) historic performance of the loan book of the
originator, (ii) performance track record on most recent Santander
Consumer deals,(ii) benchmark transactions, and (iii) other
qualitative considerations.
Portfolio expected recoveries of 15.0% are in line with recent
Spanish consumer loan average, and are based on Moody's assessments
of the lifetime expectation for the pool, taking into account: (i)
historic performance of the loan book of the originator, (ii)
benchmark transactions, and (iii) other qualitative
considerations.
The PCE of 17.5% is in line with other Spanish consumer loan peers,
and is based on Moody's assessments of the pool taking into account
the relative ranking to originator peers in the Spanish consumer
loan market. The PCE of 17.5% results in an implied coefficient of
variation ("CoV") of 39.7%.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's
Approach to Rating Consumer Loan-Backed ABS" published in July
2024.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors that would lead to an upgrade of the ratings include
significantly better than expected performance of the pool together
with an increase in credit enhancement of Notes.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings would be (1) worse than expected performance of the
underlying collateral; (2) deterioration in the credit quality of
Santander; or (3) an increase in Spain's sovereign risk.
===========
S W E D E N
===========
REN10 HOLDING: Fitch Affirms 'B+' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Ren10 Holding AB's Long-Term Issuer
Default (IDR) Rating at 'B+', with a Stable Outlook. Fitch has
assigned Renta Group Oy (Renta) a Long-Term IDR of 'B+', with a
Stable Outlook. Fitch also affirmed Ren10 Holding AB's senior
secured debt rating at 'B+' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4'.
Fitch rates Ren10 Holding AB and Renta under the Group Ratings
approach of its Non-Bank Financial Institutions Rating Criteria,
and their Long-Term IDRs are aligned.
Key Rating Drivers
Growing Franchise: The Long-Term IDR reflects Renta's small but
growing equipment-rental franchise and modest profitability. The
rating also considers Renta's high leverage, reliance on
wholesale-market funding, net earnings losses, and its exposure to
the cyclical construction sector.
Limited Economies of Scale: Renta has grown organically and through
acquisitions to achieve sizeable market shares in its core markets
of Finland, Norway and Sweden, with a smaller presence in other
markets. However, it remains small and largely Nordic-focused,
benefiting from only limited economies of scale compared with
higher-rated peers, which constrains its rating.
Construction Market Stagnation Pressures Demand: About
three-quarters of Renta's rental revenue is drawn from
infrastructure, renovation and new construction end-markets. Fitch
believes equipment demand will remain under pressure in the medium
term due to subdued activity, particularly in residential
construction. However, the longer-term trend of customers
preferring to lease equipment should support rental demand. Renta
can repurpose and move fleet between its locations to maximise
utilisation.
Low Client Concentration, Adequate Depreciation: Renta's core
clientele comprises around 100,000 clients, including individuals
as well as small, medium-sized, and large companies, reducing
revenue concentration. Its business model is decentralised, with
more than 190 depots across its markets. Renta usually retains
equipment for its useful life and does not rely on equipment sales
as a significant revenue source (less than 2% of gross operating
income in 2025).
Pressured Profitability, Adequate Margin: Renta's EBITDA margin was
stable at 34% in 9M25 (2024: 32%; 2023: 35%). It reported
annualised pre-tax loss/average assets of 4.1% in 9M25 (2024: loss
of 5.7%), driven by increased financing and depreciation expenses,
but Fitch expects some improvements following the term loan B (TLB)
repricing in early 2026.
Fitch believes that low construction activity in the Nordics will
weigh on Renta's margins and profitability in the medium term.
Lower funding costs and inflation should mitigate this, together
with decelerating depreciation expense growth amid an aging fleet
and slower portfolio expansion.
Leverage Moderates as Growth Slows: Ren10 Holding AB's reported
gross debt/EBITDA ratio was stable at 4.4x at end-3Q25, as it
continued to integrate and fully roll out its newly acquired
locations and rental companies. In its view, the continued
integration of newly acquired entities, along with modest expected
portfolio and depreciation expense growth, will support
deleveraging in the longer term.
Stable Funding: Ren10 Holding's EUR580 million TLB is its core
funding source, supplemented by a EUR125 million super senior
revolving credit facility for general corporate purposes (undrawn
at end-3Q25). Renta raises other third-party debt at the operating
entity level (i.e. lease liabilities), amounting to EUR297 million
at end-3Q25. Renta's lease liabilities relate mostly to equipment
and facilities and are treated as debt.
Adequate Liquidity: Fitch regards liquidity as adequate, supported
by predictable operational cash generation, coupled with some capex
flexibility. Interest coverage improved to 2.6x in 9M25 (2024:
2.5x) and Fitch expects further improvements after the TLB
repricing.
HoldCo Ratings Equalised: Ren10 Holding AB's Long-Term IDR is
equalised with Renta's, reflecting that they belong to the same
security group as well as prudent liquidity management, which
reduces the risk of cash flow mismatches and offset high double
leverage at the holdco level (defined as equity investments in
subsidiaries plus holding company intangibles, divided by holding
company common equity).
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A reduction in EBITDA leading to considerable delays in
deleveraging, for example, if gross debt/EBITDA rises above 5x
A reduction in EBITDA/interest expense to below 2x for an extended
period
Insufficient liquidity or access to funding to support the required
capex to maintain an attractive fleet
Material erosion of earnings due to fleet-valuation impairments or
losses on the disposal of used equipment
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Material strengthening of franchise, in conjunction with scale
benefits that feed into material profitability
Gross debt/EBITDA below 3.5x on a sustained basis without
deterioration in other financial metrics and in conjunction with a
materially enlarged franchise
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
Debt Rating Aligned With IDR: The senior secured debt rating of
Ren10 Holding's Term Loan B (TLB) is aligned with Ren10 Holding's
Long-Term IDR, reflecting Fitch's view that the likelihood of
default is materially identical between the two. The TLB is
guaranteed by group subsidiaries that account for a substantial
majority of Renta's consolidated assets, net sales and EBITDA. The
'RR4' Recovery Rating reflects average recovery expectations. The
TLB ranks junior to Ren10 Holding's super senior revolving credit
facility.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
The senior secured debt rating is primarily sensitive to a change
in Renta's Long-Term IDR. Therefore, an upgrade or downgrade of the
latter would be mirrored in similar action on the secured debt
rating.
The senior secured debt rating is also sensitive to Fitch's
recovery expectations, which could be affected by the introduction
of new debt ranking senior or junior to the rated outstanding
senior secured debt. Fitch could rate the senior secured debt below
or above the Long-Term IDR, based respectively on weaker or
stronger recovery prospects.
SUBSIDIARY AND AFFILIATE RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
Ren10 Holding AB's Long-Term IDR is primarily sensitive to a change
in Renta's Long-Term IDR. Therefore, an upgrade or downgrade of the
latter would be mirrored in similar action on Ren10 Holding AB's
Long-Term IDR.
ADJUSTMENTS
The 'b+' business profile score has been assigned below the implied
'bb' score due to the following adjustment reason: business model
(negative).
The 'bb-' asset quality score has been assigned below the implied
'a' score due to the following adjustment reason: concentrations;
asset performance (negative).
The 'b' earnings & profitability score has been assigned below the
implied 'bb' score due to the following adjustment reason:
historical and future metrics (negative).
The 'b+' funding, liquidity & coverage score has been assigned
below the implied 'bb' score due to the following adjustment
reason: funding flexibility (negative).
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. This means ESG issues are
credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating
process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality
of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Ren10 Holding AB LT IDR B+ Affirmed B+
senior secured LT B+ Affirmed RR4 B+
Renta Group Oy LT IDR B+ New Rating
=============
U K R A I N E
=============
FERREXPO PLC: Fitch Lowers Long-Term IDR to 'CC'
------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ferrexpo plc's Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) to 'CC' from 'CCC-'.
The downgrade reflects significant uncertainty on the business
continuity of the group due to bankruptcy proceedings opened
against its core operating subsidiary in Ukraine, whose operations
are being disrupted due to unstable electricity supply and tight
liquidity.
Fitch estimates Ferrexpo will have insufficient cash to cover
working-capital and capex in the next 12 months if it is unable to
resume sustainable production in 2Q26, assuming the suspension of
VAT refunds remains. Ferrexpo has no external debt, but Fitch
believes its ability to raise external funding is impaired.
Key Rating Drivers
Bankruptcy Proceedings Against Key Subsidiary: On 24 February 2026,
Ferrexpo announced that a local court of first instance in Ukraine
opened bankruptcy proceedings against its core Ukrainian operating
subsidiary, PJSC Ferrexpo Poltava Mining (FPM), and appointed an
insolvency manager. The proceedings were initiated in connection
with a contested sureties claim of UAH4,727 million, while the
underlying sureties dispute remains under Supreme Court review.
FPM has filed an appeal; however, this will not suspend the
bankruptcy proceedings. Fitch views the opening of proceedings as a
major negative event as FPM is central to Ferrexpo's operations,
being the group's major producing operation. FPM controls Poltava
mine and the group's processing plants and pelletising facilities.
In its view, the bankruptcy proceedings at FPM would increase
uncertainties over operational control, access to key assets and
consequently the group's ability to generate cash. Fitch believes
these factors heighten the risk of a distressed outcome for the
group despite the absence of debt.
Imminent Liquidity Risk: In late January 2026, Ferrexpo temporarily
suspended operations due to unstable domestic electricity supply in
the region, which hindered production at a sustainable level. Fitch
understands that an initial phase of production has restarted
around late February using imported and local electricity, but the
pace of ramp up remains uncertain and is contingent on the evolving
situation. Fitch believes failure to timely resume to a minimum
sustainable throughput could materially deplete available liquidity
over the near term.
VAT Refunds Suspension: The VAT refund suspension, linked to
personal sanctions on Ferrexpo's main shareholder, has led to
negative changes in working capital and negative operating cash
flow generation since 1Q25. The estimated VAT refund amount in
dispute at end-December 2025 was about USD70 million. Failure to
reinstate VAT refunds in a timely manner would drive ongoing cash
outflow and constrain the group's ability to fund working capital
and maintenance capex, increasing liquidity risk. Management is
working on resolving the suspension and optimising cash
management.
Legal Risks Cloud Outlook: Ferrexpo is also facing several legal
proceedings that could affect its financial performance. A
Ukrainian district court has granted a request to transfer 49.5% of
Ferrexpo's shares in FPM to a national agency. There is also a
civil claim related to alleged illegal mining and sale of subsoil
products, and a dispute with previous minority shareholders. The
timeline and outcome of these legal proceedings remain uncertain,
presenting substantial risks.
Weak Profitability; Limited Earnings Visibility: Ferrexpo's 2025
production of 6.1 metric tonnes (mt) was higher than Fitch's prior
forecast of 4.2mt, due primarily to higher concentrate output.
However, Fitch estimates EBITDA for 2025 to have fallen to about
USD10 million due to weakening iron ore prices and pellet premium
and rising energy costs. Fitch has limited visibility on 2026
earnings and cash flow generation given the uncertainty regarding
production stability and pace of ramp up following the initial
restart. Ferrexpo's lack of external debt does not mitigate the
heightened risk of liquidity depletion driven by negative free cash
flow and execution risk.
Peer Analysis
The ratings in the 'CCC' category and below for most corporate
issuers in Ukraine reflect heightened operational and financial
risks.
Interpipe Holdings plc's 'CCC-' ratings reflect the high risk of
damage or disruption at its main facilities and its liquidity
profile. Metinvest B.V. is rated 'CCC-' and on Rating Watch
Negative, which reflects increasing refinancing risk linked to its
USD428 million bonds falling due on 23 April 2026.
Fitch’s Key Rating-Case Assumptions
- No near-term enforcement of creditor claims during the initial
stages of the bankruptcy proceedings of FPM
- Pellet and iron ore concentrate production of about 3.4mt in
2026
- Average realised pellet price of USD104/tonne in 2026
- No VAT refunds in 2026
- Capex of USD45 million in 2026
- No dividends
Corporate Rating Tool Inputs and Scores
Fitch scored the issuer as follows, using its Corporate Rating Tool
(CRT) to produce the Standalone Credit Profile (SCP):
- Business and financial profile factors (assessment, relative
importance): Management (bb-, Lower), Sector Characteristics (bb+,
Lower), Market and Competitive Positioning (ccc+, Moderate),
Diversification and Asset Quality (b+, Moderate), Company
Operational Characteristics (ccc, Moderate), Profitability (ccc-,
Higher), Financial Structure (a, Lower), and Financial Flexibility
(ccc-, Higher).
- The quantitative financial subfactors are based on custom CRT
financial period parameters: 10% weight for the forecast year 2025,
70% for the forecast year 2026 and 20% for the forecast year 2027.
- Assessments of the quantitative financial subfactors also include
bespoke calculations.
- B+ to CC considerations apply in its analysis and result in an
adjustment of -1 notch(es).
- The Governance assessment of 'Some Deficiencies' results in no
adjustment.
- The Operating Environment assessment of 'ccc' results in no
adjustment.
- The SCP is 'cc'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- An adverse resolution of legal risks that results in loss of
access to and control of key assets and/or material operational
disruptions leading to liquidity constraints that ultimately result
in a default or the start of a default-like process
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- A positive resolution of legal risks that preserves Ferrexpo's
continued full access to and control of key assets, alongside
sustained resumption of production, resumption of VAT refunds, and
sufficient operational cash generation to meet minimum operational
liquidity requirements
Liquidity and Debt Structure
As of 31 December 2025, Ferrexpo had available cash and cash
equivalents of USD47 million. It has minimal liabilities linked to
leases.
Fitch estimates Ferrexpo will have insufficient cash to cover
working-capital and capex in next 12 months if it is unable to
resume to a sustainable production level during 2Q26, assuming the
suspension of VAT refunds remains in place and no near-term
enforcement of creditor claims during the initial stages of the
bankruptcy proceedings. The uncertainties stemming from the
litigations pose substantial risk to its liquidity.
Issuer Profile
Ferrexpo is an iron ore pellet producer with all of its assets
located in the Poltava region of central Ukraine.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
Climate Vulnerability Signals
The results of its Climate.VS screener did not indicate an elevated
risk for Ferrexpo.
ESG Considerations
Ferrexpo has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Group Structure and
Governance Structure due to related-party transactions, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
rating[s] in conjunction with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Ferrexpo plc LT IDR CC Downgrade CCC-
ST IDR C Affirmed C
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
AMBER ENERGY: FRP Advisory Appointed as Joint Administrators
------------------------------------------------------------
Amber Energy Solutions Ltd was placed into administration in the
High Court of Justice, Business and Property Courts of England and
Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number
CR-2026-0015228, and Matthew Whitchurch (IP No. 28110) and Jonathan
Dunn (IP No. 25150) of FRP Advisory Trading Limited were appointed
as Joint Administrators on March 3, 2026.
Amber Energy Solutions engages in energy consultancy.
The company's registered office and principal trading address is at
1 Central Square, Cardiff, CF10 1FS.
The Joint Administrators can be reached at:
Matthew Whitchurch (IP No. 28110)
Jonathan Dunn (IP No. 25150)
FRP Advisory Trading Limited
Kings Orchard, 1 Queen Street
Bristol, BS2 0HQ
For further details, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel: 0117 203 3700
Email: Marius.Pitulac@frpadvisory.com
Alternative contact: Marius Pitulac
BRACCAN MORTGAGE 2026-1: Moody's Assigns (P)B2 Rating to X Notes
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned provisional ratings to Notes to be
issued by Braccan Mortgage Funding 2026-1 plc:
GBP [ ]M Class A Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due April
2068, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)
GBP [ ]M Class B Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due April
2068, Assigned (P)Aa1 (sf)
GBP [ ]M Class C Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due April
2068, Assigned (P)A1 (sf)
GBP [ ]M Class D Mortgage Backed Floating Rate Notes due April
2068, Assigned (P)Baa1 (sf)
GBP [ ]M Class X Floating Rate Notes due April 2068, Assigned
(P)B2 (sf)
Moody's have not assigned a rating to the GBP [ ]M Class Z Notes
due April 2068.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Notes are backed by a static portfolio of UK buy-to-let (83.8%)
and UK non-conforming (16.2%) residential mortgage loans originated
by Paratus AMC Limited ("Paratus" as originator and seller, NR).
The provisional portfolio consists of 1,911 mortgage loans with a
current balance of GBP427.8 million as of January 31, 2026 pool
cut-off date.
The ratings are primarily based on the credit quality of the
portfolio, the structural features of the transaction and its legal
integrity.
The transaction benefits from a non-amortising general reserve;
sized at 0.20% of the Classes A to D notes and a liquidity reserve
fund which is equal to 1.00% of the outstanding balance of Class A
and B and will amortise together with Class A and B. The general
reserve fund will be part of available revenue receipts while the
liquidity reserve fund will be available to cover senior fees and
costs, and Class A and B interest (in respect of the latter, if it
is the most senior class outstanding and otherwise subject to a PDL
condition).
Paratus is the servicer and US Bank Global Corporate Trust Limited
is the cash manager in the transaction. In order to mitigate the
operational risk, CSC Capital Markets UK Limited (Not rated) will
act as the back-up servicer facilitator. To ensure payment
continuity over the transaction's lifetime the transaction
documents incorporate estimation language whereby the cash manager
can use the three most recent servicer reports to determine the
cash allocation in case no servicer report is available.
Additionally, there is an interest rate risk mismatch between the
98.6% of loans in the pool that are fixed rate and revert to Bank
of England Base Rate (BBR) plus a margin, and the Notes which are
floating rate securities with reference to compounded daily SONIA.
To mitigate this mismatch there will be a fixed-floating scheduled
amortisation swap provided by Royal Bank of Canada (Aa1(cr) /
P-1(cr)). The swap framework is in accordance with Moody's
guidelines. The collateral trigger is set at loss of A3(cr) and the
transfer trigger at loss of Baa3(cr).
Moody's determined the portfolio lifetime expected loss of 1.2% and
MILAN Stressed Loss of 9.4% related to borrower receivables. The
expected loss captures Moody's expectations of performance
considering the current economic outlook, while the MILAN Stressed
Loss captures the loss Moody's expects the portfolio to suffer in
the event of a severe recession scenario. Expected losses and MILAN
Stressed Loss are parameters used by us to calibrate its lognormal
portfolio loss distribution curve and to associate a probability
with each potential future loss scenario in the ABSROM cash flow
model to rate RMBS.
Portfolio expected loss of 1.2%: This is in line with the UK
buy-to-let RMBS sector average and is based on Moody's assessments
of the lifetime loss expectation for the pool taking into account:
(1) the portfolio characteristics, including a weighted-average
current LTV of 71.1%; (2) the good performance of the seller's
precedent transactions as well as the historical performance of the
seller's loan book; (3) benchmarking with comparable transactions
in the UK RMBS market; and (4) the current macroeconomic
environment in the UK.
MILAN Stressed Loss of 9.4%: This is lower than the UK buy-to-let
RMBS sector average and follows Moody's assessments of the
loan-by-loan information taking into account the following key
drivers: (1) the portfolio characteristics including the
weighted-average current LTV of 71.1% for the pool; (2) 83.8% of
the portfolio has BTL loans and 16.2% of the portfolio has owner
occupied loans with 87.2% interest-only or part and part and 10.0%
HMO/MUFB loans; and (3) benchmarking with comparable transactions
in the UK RMBS market as well as with the previous transactions of
Paratus.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Residential
Mortgage-Backed Securitizations" published in October 2024.
The analysis undertaken by Moody's at the initial assignment of
ratings for RMBS securities may focus on aspects that become less
relevant or typically remain unchanged during the surveillance
stage.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors that may cause an upgrade of the ratings of the notes
include significantly better than expected performance of the pool
together with an increase in credit enhancement of the Notes.
Factors that would lead to a downgrade of the ratings include: (i)
increased counterparty risk leading to potential operational risk
of servicing or cash management interruptions; and (ii) economic
conditions being worse than forecast resulting in higher arrears
and losses.
C2 VTG: Bespoke Insolvency Appointed as Administrator
-----------------------------------------------------
C2 VTG Group Ltd, was placed into administration in the High Court
of Justice, Business and Property Courts in Manchester, Insolvency
& Companies List (ChD), Court Number CR-2026-MAN-00372, and Peter
John Harold (IP No. 10810) of Bespoke Insolvency Solutions was
appointed as Administrator on February 27, 2026.
C2 VTG Group engages in the retail sale of clothing in specialised
stores.
The company's registered office and principal trading address is at
Stonecross, Trumpington High Street, Cambridge, CB2 9SU.
The Administrator can be reached at:
Peter John Harold (IP No. 10810)
Bespoke Insolvency Solutions
PO Box 798
Rochdale, OL16 9TX
For further details, contact:
Administrator
Email: info@bespokeinsolvency.co.uk
Alternative contact: Jessica Hodgson
DOWSON PLC 2024-1: Moody's Ups Rating on GBP22.75MM E Notes to Ba2
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings of four notes in Dowson
2024-1 PLC. The rating action reflects better than expected
collateral performance and the increased levels of credit
enhancement for the affected notes.
Moody's affirmed the ratings of the notes that had sufficient
credit enhancement to maintain their current ratings.
GBP227.5M Class A Notes, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Oct 29,
2024 Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
GBP35M Class B Notes, Upgraded to Aa1 (sf); previously on Oct 29,
2024 Definitive Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)
GBP24.5M Class C Notes, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Oct
29, 2024 Definitive Rating Assigned A3 (sf)
GBP14M Class D Notes, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Oct 29,
2024 Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)
GBP22.75M Class E Notes, Upgraded to Ba2 (sf); previously on Oct
29, 2024 Definitive Rating Assigned B1 (sf)
GBP26.25M Class F Notes, Affirmed Caa3 (sf); previously on Oct 29,
2024 Definitive Rating Assigned Caa3 (sf)
Dowson 2024-1 PLC is a static cash securitisation of agreements
entered into for the purpose of financing vehicles to obligors in
the United Kingdom by Oodle Financial Services Limited ("Oodle")
(NR).
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action is prompted by decreased key collateral
assumptions, namely the portfolio Mean Default Assumption (PD) due
to better than expected collateral performance as well as increase
in credit enhancement for the affected tranches.
Key Collateral Assumptions
As part of the rating action, Moody's reassessed Moody's expected
default rate and recovery rate assumptions for the portfolio
reflecting the collateral performance to date.
The performance of the transactions has been stable since closing,
with 90 days plus arrears currently standing at 0.94%. Cumulative
defaults currently stand at 5.95% of the original pool balance.
The current expected default rate probability assumption is 18% of
the current portfolio balance, which translates to a decrease of
the default probability assumption as a percentage of the original
balance to 15.54% from 17.89%. Moody's decreased portfolio credit
enhancement ("PCE") to 36% from 40%. The assumption for the fixed
recovery rate remains at 30%.
Increase in Available Credit Enhancement
Sequential amortisation led to the increase in the credit
enhancement available in this transaction.
For instance, the credit enhancement for the upgraded Class B, C, D
and E Notes increased to 47.10%, 33.90%, 26.34% and 14.19% from
25.10%, 18.07%, 14.04% and 7.57%, respectively, since closing.
Counterparty Exposure
The rating actions took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as servicer.
Moody's considered how the liquidity available in the transaction
and other mitigants support continuity of note payments, in case of
servicer default, using the CR assessment as a reference point for
servicers. The transaction has reserves for the Notes B, C, D, E
and F, which will be available to cover shortfalls related to the
corresponding Notes, each representing 1% of their respective
Notes. Moody's also considered in Moody's analysis that there is no
principal to pay interest in case of shortfall. The rating of the
Class B Notes is constrained by operational risk, due to
insufficient liquidity.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Auto Loan- and Lease-Backed ABS" published in
June 2025.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the
ratings include (1) performance of the underlying collateral that
is better than Moody's expected, (2) an increase in available
credit enhancement and (3) improvements in the credit quality of
the transaction.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings include (1) an increase in sovereign risk, (2) performance
of the underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expected,
(3) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement and
(4) deterioration in the credit quality of the transaction
counterparties.
HONOURS PLC 2: Moody's Cuts Rating on GBP11.95MM Cl. D Notes to Ca
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the rating of 1 class of notes and
downgraded the rating of 1 class of notes in Honours PLC Series 2.
The upgrade reflects the increased level of credit enhancement for
the affected notes, while the downgrade reflects Moody's views on
the loss-given-default as a percentage of original balance for
these notes.
GBP18M Class C Notes, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on Mar 10,
2022 Upgraded to Ba1 (sf)
GBP11.95M Class D Notes, Downgraded to Ca (sf); previously on Mar
10, 2022 Affirmed Caa3 (sf)
Honours PLC Series 2 is a static cash securitisation of student
loans extended to obligors in the UK by the Student Loans Company
Limited (The) ("SLC"), a UK public sector organization.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action is prompted by an increase in credit enhancement
for Class C notes and Moody's views on the loss-given-default as a
percentage of original balance for Class D notes.
Increase in Available Credit Enhancement
Sequential amortization led to the increase in the credit
enhancement available in this transaction. For instance, credit
enhancement calculated as subordinated notes minus unpaid PDL over
sum of all notes increased to 37.75% from 24.55% a year ago for
class C notes. In addition, the transaction benefits from a
liquidity reserve now at its floor of GBP2.5M that was funded with
collections and will be available ultimately to repay the notes.
The majority of the principal repayments now comes from the
Authority's cancelation indemnity which covers loans outstanding
for more than 25 years and that are not in arrears.
Projection of future losses
For Class D, the rating action is prompted by Moody's views on the
loss-given-default as a percentage of original balance for these
notes. The balance of qualifying loans do not fully cover the sum
of the Class C and D notes, with a shortage of around GBP4.5M.
The rating action reflects the payment made on this note since
issuance and the expected resulting loss for Class D notes.
Counterparty Exposure
The rating actions took into consideration the notes' exposure to
relevant counterparties, such as servicer, account banks or swap
providers.
The rating of the Class C notes is constrained by operational risk.
Moody's considers that the lack of back-up servicing arrangement
may lead to payment disruption in the event of servicer disruption.
The rating of Class C notes are constrained at A3 (sf).
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "UK Scheduled
Amortisation Student Loan-backed Securitisations: Surveillance"
published in April 2024.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the
ratings include (1) performance of the underlying collateral that
is better than Moody's expected, (2) an increase in available
credit enhancement and (3) improvements in the credit quality of
the transaction counterparties.
Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings include (1) an increase in sovereign risk, (2) performance
of the underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expected,
(3) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement and
(4) deterioration in the credit quality of the transaction
counterparties.
WILSHIRE BENCHMARKS: FRP Advisory Appointed as Joint Administrators
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Wilshire Benchmarks Topco Limited was placed into administration in
the High Court of Justice, Court Number CR-2026-001549, and Chad
Griffin (IP No. 9528) and Daniel Conway (IP No. 29112) of FRP
Advisory Trading Limited were appointed as Joint Administrators on
March 2, 2026.
Wilshire Benchmarks Topco engages in activities of other holding
companies not elsewhere classified.
The company's registered office and principal trading addres is at
C/O Tmf Group, 13th Floor, One Angel Court, London, EC2R 7HJ.
The Joint Administrators can be reached at:
Chad Griffin (IP No. 9528)
Daniel Conway (IP No. 29112)
FRP Advisory Trading Limited
Apex 3, 95 Haymarket Terrace
Edinburgh, EH12 5HD
For further details, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel: 020 3005 4000
Alternative contact: Ella Sutton
Email: cp.london@frpadvisory.com
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