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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Tuesday, November 18, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 230
Headlines
A Z E R B A I J A N
SOCAR: S&P Upgrades Issuer Credit Rating to 'BB', Outlook Stable
F R A N C E
ARGENT MIDCO: Moody's Assigns 'B2' CFR, Outlook Stable
I R E L A N D
AQUEDUCT EUROPEAN 5-2020: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on F-R Notes
ARINI EUROPEAN VII: Fitch Assigns B-sf Final Rating to Cl. F Notes
BBAM EUROPEAN VII: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F Notes
CARLYLE 2015-1: Fitch Assigns B-sf Final Rating to Cl. E-R-R Notes
HARVEST CLO XXI: Fitch Affirms 'B+sf' Rating on Class F Notes
OCP EURO 2024-9: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F-R Notes
PENTA CLO 10: Fitch Hikes Rating on Class E Notes to 'BBsf'
RONDA RMBS 2025: S&P Assigns Prelim. Bsf Rating on F-Dfrd Notes
SOUND POINT I: Moody's Affirms B1 Rating on EUR15MM Cl. F-R Notes
I T A L Y
EOLO SPA: Fitch Affirms 'B-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
P O L A N D
SYNTHOS SA: Moody's Cuts CFR & EUR600MM Sr Sec Notes Rating to Ba3
P O R T U G A L
TAGUS - VASCO FINANCE 1: DBRS Cuts Class E Notes Rating to B(low)
S P A I N
CAIXABANK CONSUMO 7: DBRS Gives Prov. BB(high) Rating to D Notes
GRIFOLS, S.A.: Fitch Affirms 'B+' LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Pos.
SANTANDER RESIDENTIAL 1: DBRS Gives Prov. CCC Rating to E Notes
S W I T Z E R L A N D
PEACH PROPERTY: Fitch Hikes Long-Term IDR to 'B', Outlook Stable
T U R K E Y
ARCELIK A.S: Fitch Lowers Long-Term IDR to 'B+', Outlook Negative
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
ARGO BLOCKCHAIN: Plan Meetings Scheduled for December 2
ATLAS FUNDING 2025-2: DBRS Finalizes BB Rating on Class E Notes
CHETWOOD 2025-1: DBRS Gives Prov. BB(high) Rating to 2 Note Classes
CHETWOOD 2025-1: Fitch Assigns 'BB-(EXP)sf' Rating to Class X Notes
CLEVERCHEFS: Exigen Group Appointed as Administrators
EUROSAIL-UK 2007-6: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class C1a Notes
LANSDOWNE CARE: Begbies Traynor Appointed as Administrators
PAVILLION CONSUMER 2025-1: DBRS Gives Prov. B(high) F Notes Rating
SOLUTIONS 30 UK: S&W Partners Appointed as Joint Administrators
VISIONS LIVE EVENTS: Oury Clark Appointed as Joint Administrators
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A Z E R B A I J A N
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SOCAR: S&P Upgrades Issuer Credit Rating to 'BB', Outlook Stable
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S&P Global Ratings raised the long-term issuer credit rating and
issue rating of State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic's (SOCAR)
and its senior unsecured debt to 'BB' from 'BB-'.
The stable outlook reflects S&P's views that SOCAR will maintain a
manageable liquidity position, supported by its sizable cash
balances, while its operational performance remains stable
supporting funds from operations (FFO) to debt above 12%, with
unchanged state support considerations.
S&P said, "A clearer financial policy and improved transparency
adds visibility to SOCAR's credit profile. We revised our
assessment of the company's governance and financial policy, which
affected our view of its SACP, to 'bb-' from 'b'. We had viewed the
levels of disclosure and transparency as materially weaker than
those of international peers. Although SOCAR is still lagging, we
have seen meaningful progress in this regard recently. This
improvement includes timeliness and scope of disclosure, with
better granularity on the company's business segments, corporate
structure, and strategy. We now understand SOCAR will focus more on
domestic upstream projects, which have been core to its cash flow
and have less uncertainty on investments than previous years.
Still, we will be closely monitoring developments given the
company's track record of opportunistic investments and complex
corporate structure.
"SOCAR's credit metrics should remain relatively stable, albeit
with limited headroom. We expect SOCAR's EBITDA to decrease over
2025-2027 toward Azerbaijani new manat (AZN) 5.5 billion-AZN6
billion from AZN6.7 billion in 2024 on lower oil and gas prices, as
well as slowly declining oil and gas production output. SOCAR's FFO
should remain generally stable thanks to lower taxes and slightly
lower interest expenses, allowing FFO to debt to remain in the
12%-15% range under our base-case scenario. This incorporates
higher capital expenditure (capex) of about AZN3 billion annually,
reflecting potential upstream investments, and steady dividend
distribution. Under these assumptions, SOCAR's S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted debt should remain relatively high, at AZN27.5
billion-AZN28 billion despite moderately positive free operating
cash flow (FOCF) of AZN1 billion. We base our ratios on gross debt
(although they incorporate other adjustments), as we do not net
SOCAR's sizable cash with debt. However, the company has
significant amounts of cash on the balance sheet of about AZN14
billion as of December 2024 which supports SOCAR's liquidity
characterized by large share of short-term debt. Accounting for the
cash, FFO to debt improves to slightly above 20%, which we expect
the company to maintain.
"Turkish operations' challenging environment, weak cash flow, and
high indebtedness make them one of the key constraints to group's
credit quality. SOCAR Turkey Enerji A.Ş. (STEAS) incorporates
SOCAR's Turkish operations, including refining, petrochemicals, and
transport. While its Turkish refineries benefit from the group's
vertical integration, operating performance has been hurt by the
challenging local environment. Persistently high inflation, above
50% for a number of years but recently moderating toward 33% in
2025 and 18% in 2026 under our expectations, has affected the costs
of local companies and pressed their profitability. Combined with
weak markets for petrochemicals and generally volatile refining,
this leads to poor cash generation and the inability to repay its
large debt. We estimate SOCAR's Turkish subsidiary to have a gross
debt to EBITDA leverage in the high single digits as of 2024 with
limited prospects of reducing it." High interest rates and an
inability to raise long-term debt are other features of operating
in the Turkish market. This results in high interest expense, which
further reduces the company's cash flow. At the same time, a large
share of short-term debt results in weak liquidity and the need to
constantly refinance large amounts of debt. SOCAR's debt at its
Turkish subsidiary represents about 40% of the group's
indebtedness, and has a material impact on the company's credit
metrics given the associated leverage.
S&P said, "Under our base-case scenario, we expect a gradual
decline in hydrocarbon production, which could lead to further
investments in the company's upstream operations. SOCAR's own
assets production in 2024 was of 7.5 million tons of oil and 7.7
billion cubic meters of natural gas. SOCAR also has minority stakes
in projects led by international players, the main ones being
Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli (ACG) and Shah-Deniz. While we view the
company's reserves as ample, we expect output to keep gradually
declining under the current production profile, ACG being well past
its peak and Shah-Deniz having recently seen a decline in
production. Given that upstream is the segment contributing the
most to SOCAR's EBITDA and has been the core of its operations, we
would expect investments to fund new projects in undeveloped areas
of the country or develop existing ones. To reflect these expected
investments, we include in our base-case about AZN3 billion of
capex per year, above the levels of the past two years. The nearly
completed Shah Deniz 2 project and Shah Deniz Compression project
signed earlier this year illustrate this ongoing effort to increase
production output through further investments.
"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that SOCAR's liquidity
will remain manageable, thanks to its sizable cash balances that
together with cash flows cover near-term maturities, and the
government's willingness to provide extraordinary and ongoing
support will stay solid. It also reflects our anticipation there
will be no major delays, cost overruns, or operating issues at the
company's capex projects and core operations and no major changes
in SOCAR's very strong link with the government.
"In our base-case scenario, we anticipate S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted FFO to debt of 12%-15% in 2025-2027 and slightly
above 20% if accounting for the cash. However, we anticipate
relatively high investments of AZN3 billion per year, with positive
FOCF of about AZN1 billion."
S&P could downgrade SOCAR if:
-- The government's ability and willingness to support it
materially weakens, for example, if the sovereign faces economic
pressure or it focuses more resources on social and military
purposes rather than cofinancing the company's new oil and gas
projects;
-- S&P sees FFO to debt drop below 12% (or below 20% if accounting
for the cash) consistently, following weaker cash flow or higher
investments. This could stem from projects requiring high
investments, significant acquisitions, or a much steeper decline in
oil and gas output, for instance; or
-- SOCAR's liquidity deteriorates substantially, which could
happen if the company's available cash balances decrease, and the
company cannot cover its short-term maturities with a combination
of cash on the balance sheet and generated cash flow.
Rating upside could stem from a sovereign upgrade. S&P could also
upgrade SOCAR in case its SACP improves to at least 'bb+', which is
unlikely given the high leverage and limited deleveraging
potential.
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) credit factors for this
change in credit rating/outlook and/or CreditWatch status:
-- Governance--Transparency and reporting
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F R A N C E
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ARGENT MIDCO: Moody's Assigns 'B2' CFR, Outlook Stable
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Moody's Ratings has assigned a B2 corporate family rating and a
B2-PD probability of default rating to Argent Midco SAS (Sebia or
the company), the new top holding company of Sebia's restricted
group. At the same time, Moody's have assigned B2 instrument
ratings to the proposed EUR1,900 million equivalent backed senior
secured term loan B (TLB) and the EUR150 million backed senior
secured revolving credit facility (RCF), both due in 2032, borrowed
by Argent Bidco SAS. Concurrently, Moody's have withdrawn the B2
CFR and B2-PD PDR of SAM Bidco SAS, the previous top entity of
Sebia's restricted group. The outlook on SAM Bidco SAS is
unaffected at stable and the outlook on all other entities is
stable.
Proceeds from the new term loan, along with new equity, will be
used to fund the acquisition of a significant stake in Sebia by
Warburg Pincus International LLC (Warburg Pincus) and repay Sebia's
existing debt. Closing of the transaction is expected in early
2026. Moody's will withdraw the instrument ratings of the backed
senior secured bank credit facilities borrowed by SAM Bidco SAS,
due in 2027, at closing of the transaction.
RATINGS RATIONALE
Sebia's B2 rating reflects its leading position in the global
in-vitro diagnostics sector, driven by its capillary
electrophoresis technology. The rating considers the company's
leadership in multiple myeloma diagnostics, a robust base of
recurring revenues contributing to solid Moody's-adjusted free cash
flow (FCF), a consistent record of organic growth, and strong
profit margins.
However, Sebia's high initial Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA
(leverage) as of end-2025 of 7.2x pro forma of the refinancing
constrains the rating, leaving the company weakly positioned within
its current rating category. The company's relatively modest scale
and reliance on a core technology, despite ongoing diversification,
and the risk of future debt-funded acquisitions, which could slow
deleveraging, also weigh on Moody's assessments. That said, Moody's
expects Sebia to prioritise organic deleveraging over the next
12-18 months.
Governance factors were key to the rating action, notably Sebia's
financial policy, which demonstrates a significant tolerance for
leverage, as well as its concentrated ownership.
Moody's forecasts revenue growth in the low double digits in
percentage terms over the next 12-18 months, driven by continued
strength in the multiple myeloma segment, new product launches in
autoimmune and infectious diseases, and increased market
penetration in genetic and metabolic disease technologies. Over the
same period, Moody's anticipates Moody's-adjusted gross leverage to
fall below 6.5x, with Moody's-adjusted EBITDA to interest expense
of about 2.8x-3.0x, and Moody's-adjusted FCF of EUR50 million to
EUR60 million. Moody's do not forecast dividend payments, but
potential distributions would impact FCF.
OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Sebia will
maintain a good operating performance that will lead to
deleveraging below 6.5x over the next 12-18 months, while
generating good free cash flow. The outlook also assumes that the
company will not undertake any major debt-funded acquisitions or
shareholder distributions.
LIQUIDITY
Sebia's liquidity is good, supported by EUR35 million of cash, pro
forma the refinancing, and Moody's expectations of positive
Moody's-adjusted FCF over the next 12-18 months. Liquidity is also
supported by the new EUR150 million senior secured RCF which is
expected to be undrawn at closing. Over the same period, Moody's
assumes working capital requirements of about 4% of revenue, and
capital spending at about 8% of revenue. The acquisition by Warburg
Pincus also comprises a deferred payment of about EUR150 million
due 12 months after closing, which Moody's have assumed will be
covered via new equity and will not impact Sebia's key credit
metrics.
The new RCF includes a springing financial covenant set at a senior
secured net leverage of 13.0x, tested only when the RCF is drawn by
more than 45%. Moody's expects the company to have significant
capacity against this threshold, if tested.
A comprehensive review of all credit ratings for the respective
issuer(s) has been conducted during a rating committee.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Upward pressure could develop if the company continues to gradually
diversify its product mix while preserving strong profitability.
Quantitatively, Moody's could upgrade the rating if the company's
Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA declines below 5.0x, Moody's-adjusted
EBITDA/interest expense increases above 3.0x, and Moody's-adjusted
FCF/debt improves to the high-single digits in percentage terms,
all on a sustained basis. An upgrade of the ratings would also
require a more conservative financial policy and management around
the hybrid instruments issued outside of the restricted group.
Downward pressure on the rating could emerge if technology threats
or pricing pressure constrain Sebia's operating performance; its
Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA remains above 6.5x, its
Moody's-adjusted EBITDA/interest expense falls below 2.0x, or its
liquidity weakens, including a sustained deterioration of free cash
flow. Major debt-funded acquisitions or shareholder distributions
could also lead to a downgrade of the ratings.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The B2-PD PDR, in line with the CFR, reflects Moody's assumptions
of a 50% family recovery rate, typical for bank debt structures
with a limited or loose set of financial covenants. The B2
instrument ratings of the proposed EUR1,900 million equivalent
senior secured TLB and the EUR150 million senior secured RCF are in
line with the CFR, reflecting their pari passu ranking in the
capital structure and the upstream guarantees from material
subsidiaries of the company.
There is a sizable shareholder loan entering the restricted group
which matures 10 years after closing and is subordinated to all
other creditors and unsecured. Moody's considers this instrument as
equity for adjusted metrics.
There will be a material amount of preferred shares issued outside
of the restricted group held by the company's shareholders. Moody's
understands these shares will be unsecured, unguaranteed and
structurally subordinated, and will not contractually mature,
amortize or require contractual prepayment. They will have no
cross-default or cross-acceleration and no mandatory fixed or
periodic dividend payments.
In Moody's views, the presence of such instruments increases the
risks that the company could upstream cash or raise debt at the
restricted group to repay or service these instruments, which would
pressure Sebia's credit quality. Nevertheless, Moody's understands
shareholders do not intend to use the company's FCF generation to
service these instruments and Moody's rating does not assume
shareholder distributions.
COVENANTS
Moody's have reviewed the draft terms for the new credit facility.
Notable terms include the following:
Guarantor coverage will be at least 80% of cons. EBITDA (determined
in accordance with the agreement) and include wholly owned
companies representing 5% or more of cons. EBITDA. Only companies
incorporated in England & Wales, France, Germany, Italy and the
states of New York and Delaware in the US are required to provide
guarantees and security. Security will be granted over key shares,
bank accounts and intra-group receivables as well as, in the case
of companies in England & Wales, New York and Delaware only,
security over all liabilities under the senior finance documents.
Pari passu additional facilities are permitted up to 100% of EBITDA
as well as unlimited amounts up to a senior secured net leverage
ratio (SSNLR) of 6.5x. Unlimited junior secured facilities are
permitted subject to a secured net leverage ratio of 7.5x and
unsecured facilities or facilities secured on non-collateral assets
are permitted subject to a 2.0x fixed charge coverage ratio or a
net leverage ratio of 8.5x or less. Unlimited restricted payments
are allowed up to a 6.5x SSNLR. Asset sale proceeds are only
required to be applied in full where the SSNLR exceeds 6.5x.
Adjustments to cons. EBITDA include the full run rate of cost
savings and synergies, capped at 30% of cons. EBITDA, and believed
to be obtained within 36 months.
The proposed terms, and the final terms may be materially
different.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Medical
Products and Devices published in October 2025.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Sebia, founded in 1967 and headquartered in Lisses, France, is a
manufacturer of equipment and associated reagents used in
specialized segments of the in vitro diagnostics market. The
company holds a prominent market share in the diagnosis of multiple
myeloma. Sebia also operates in the diagnosis of other conditions,
including diabetes, hemoglobinopathies, and chronic diseases.
Warburg Pincus will hold a controlling shareholding position in the
company after closing of the transaction, along with other
shareholders CVC, Tethys Invest, La Caisse and management.
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I R E L A N D
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AQUEDUCT EUROPEAN 5-2020: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on F-R Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Aqueduct European CLO 5-2020 DAC class
B-1-R and B-2-R notes and affirmed the others. The Outlook on the
class C-R notes has been revised to Positive from Stable. All other
Outlooks are Stable.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Aqueduct European
CLO 5-2020 DAC
A-R XS2389541009 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B-1-R XS2389541777 LT AA+sf Upgrade AAsf
B-2-R XS2389541850 LT AA+sf Upgrade AAsf
C-R XS2389542155 LT Asf Affirmed Asf
D-R XS2389542312 LT BBB-sf Affirmed BBB-sf
E-R XS2389542585 LT BB-sf Affirmed BB-sf
F-R XS2389542742 LT B-sf Affirmed B-sf
Transaction Summary
Aqueduct European CLO 5-2020 DAC is a cash flow collateralised loan
obligation (CLO), mostly comprising senior secured obligations. The
deal is actively managed by HPS Investment Partners CLO (UK) LLP
and will exit its reinvestment period in April 2026.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Performance Better Than Expected Case: The portfolio's performance
has remained broadly stable, with no defaulted assets since Fitch's
last rating action in December 2024. The transaction is currently
slightly above par and passing all tests, with a comfortable
cushion against the current weighted average rating factor,
weighted average recovery rate and weighted average spread
covenants. The transaction's performance has resulted in an
increase on the break-even default-rate cushions versus the last
review, which also drives the upgrades of the class B-1-R and B-2-R
and the revision to Positive Outlook for the class C-R notes.
Manageable Refinancing Risk: The transaction has manageable near-
and medium-term refinancing risk, with only 3.1% of the assets in
the portfolio maturing by end-2026 and 5.2% in 2027, as calculated
by Fitch, in view of large default-rate cushions for each class of
notes.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the underlying obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The weighted average rating
factor of the current portfolio is 25.3 as calculated by Fitch
under its latest criteria. About 13.8% of the portfolio is
currently on Negative Outlook.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
98.3% of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for
these assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery
rate of the current portfolio is 61.7%.
Diversified Portfolio: The portfolio is well-diversified across
obligors, countries and industries. The top 10 obligor
concentration, as calculated by Fitch, is 10.5%, and no obligor
represents more than 1.3% of the portfolio balance. Exposure to the
three largest Fitch-defined industries is 32.2% as reported by the
trustee. Fixed-rate assets as reported by the trustee are at 3.9%,
complying with the limit of 10%.
Cash Flow Analysis: Fitch used a customised proprietary cash flow
model to replicate the principal and interest waterfalls and the
various structural features of the transaction, and to assess their
effectiveness, including the structural protection provided by
excess spread diverted through the par-value and interest-coverage
tests. Since the transaction is still within the reinvestment
period, Fitch's upgrade is based on a stressed portfolio testing
across the entire Fitch test matrices as per the transaction
document.
Deviation from MIR: The class C-R and E-R notes are one notch below
their respective model-implied ratings (MIR). The deviation
reflects the high concentration, albeit still below the 7.5%
covenant, and collateral obligations rated 'CCC+' and below by
Fitch, which may expose the transaction to losses if defaults
materialise. In Fitch view, junior class notes' default rate
cushion is more sensitive to losses and will benefit less from
amortisation after the end of the reinvestment period, resulting in
the Stable Outlook on the class E-R notes.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Based on the current portfolio, downgrades may occur if the loss
expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may result from stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other nationally
recognised statistical rating organisations and/or European
securities and markets authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Aqueduct European
CLO 5-2020 DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
ARINI EUROPEAN VII: Fitch Assigns B-sf Final Rating to Cl. F Notes
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Fitch Ratings has assigned Arini European CLO VII DAC's notes final
ratings, as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating
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Arini European
CLO VII DAC
A XS3190382054 LT AAAsf New Rating
A-1 Loan LT AAAsf New Rating
A-2 Loan LT AAAsf New Rating
B XS3190382997 LT AAsf New Rating
C XS3190383888 LT Asf New Rating
D XS3190384696 LT BBB-sf New Rating
E XS3190385404 LT BB-sf New Rating
F XS3190386394 LT B-sf New Rating
Subordinated Notes
XS3190387103 LT NRsf New Rating
Transaction Summary
Arini European CLO VII DAC is a securitisation of mainly (at least
90%) senior secured obligations with a component of senior
unsecured obligations, second-lien loans, mezzanine obligations and
high-yield bonds. Net proceeds from the issuance have been used to
fund an identified portfolio with a target par of EUR610 million.
The portfolio is actively managed by Arini Loan Management US LLC.
The CLO has a 4.7-year reinvestment period and an 8.5-year weighted
average life (WAL) test covenant.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors in the 'B+'/'B' category. The
Fitch weighted average rating factor of the identified portfolio is
22.4.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate of the identified portfolio is 62.2%.
Diversified Portfolio (Positive): The transaction includes two
matrices corresponding to an 8.5-year WAL that are effective at
closing and two forward matrices corresponding to a 7.5-year WAL.
Each matrix set corresponds to two different fixed-rate asset
limits of 5% and 10%. All matrices are based on a top 10 obligor
concentration limit of 20%. The forward matrices can be selected by
the manager 12 months from issue date, provided the collateral
principal amount (defaults at Fitch-calculated collateral value) is
at least at the reinvestment target par balance and the collateral
quality tests are satisfied, among other conditions.
The transaction also has various portfolio concentration limits,
including a maximum exposure to the three largest Fitch-defined
industries in the portfolio at 40%. These covenants ensure the
asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction has a reinvestment
period of about 4.7 years and includes reinvestment criteria
similar to those of other European transactions. Fitch's analysis
is based on a stressed case portfolio with the aim of testing the
robustness of the transaction structure against its covenants and
portfolio guidelines.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL used for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio analysis was reduced by 12 months. This is
to account for the strict reinvestment conditions envisaged by the
transaction after its reinvestment period, which include passing
the coverage tests and the Fitch 'CCC' maximum limit, and a WAL
test covenant that progressively steps down. In Fitch's opinion,
these conditions would reduce the effective risk horizon of the
portfolio during stress periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) across all ratings
and a 25% decrease of the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of
the identified portfolio would have no rating impact on the class
A, D and E notes and lead to downgrades of one notch for the class
B and C notes and to below 'B-sf' for the class F notes.
Based on the identified portfolio, downgrades may occur if the loss
expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration. Due to the
better metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio than
the Fitch-stressed portfolio, the class B, D, E and F notes display
rating cushions of two notches and the class C notes of three
notches. The class A notes are at the highest achievable rating and
therefore have no rating cushion.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
across all ratings and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings
of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of three
notches for the class A and D notes, four notches for the class B
and C notes and to below 'B-sf' for the class E and F notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR across all ratings and a 25%
increase in the RRR across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed
portfolio would result in an upgrade of no more than three notches
across the structure, apart from the 'AAAsf' notes, which are at
the highest level on Fitch's scale and cannot be upgraded.
During the reinvestment period, based on the Fitch-stressed
portfolio, upgrades may occur on better-than-expected portfolio
credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test covenant, allowing
the notes to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the
remaining life of the transaction. After the end of the
reinvestment period, upgrades may result from stable portfolio
credit quality and deleveraging, leading to higher credit
enhancement and excess spread available to cover losses in the
remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Arini European CLO VII DAC
The majority of the underlying assets or risk presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Arini European CLO
VII DAC. In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores
in connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
BBAM EUROPEAN VII: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to BBAM European CLO
VII DAC's class A, B, C, D, E, and F notes. At closing, the issuer
also issued unrated subordinated notes.
The ratings assigned to BBAM European CLO VII DAC's notes reflect
our assessment of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
our counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P weighted-average rating factor 2,739.58
Default rate dispersion 557.82
Weighted-average life (years) 5.07
Obligor diversity measure 150.38
Industry diversity measure 21.86
Regional diversity measure 1.32
Transaction key metrics
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from our CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 1.75
Actual 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 36.31
Actual weighted-average spread (net of floors; %) 3.75
Actual weighted-average coupon (%) 4.79
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes will pay quarterly
interest unless a frequency switch event occurs. Following this,
the notes will switch to semiannual payments.
Rationale
The portfolio is well diversified, primarily comprising broadly
syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and senior
secured bonds. Therefore, S&P has conducted its credit and cash
flow analysis by applying our criteria for corporate cash flow
CDOs.
S&P said, "In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR400 million
target par amount, the covenanted weighted-average spread (3.70%),
the covenanted weighted-average coupon (4.00%), the actual
weighted-average recovery rates calculated in line with our CLO
criteria for the class A notes, and the actual weighted-average
recovery rates for all other classes of notes. We applied various
cash flow stress scenarios, using four different default patterns,
in conjunction with different interest rate stress scenarios for
each liability rating category.
"Until the end of the reinvestment period on July 19, 2030, the
collateral manager may substitute assets in the portfolio as long
as our CDO Monitor test is maintained or improved in relation to
the initial ratings on the notes. This test looks at the total
amount of losses that the transaction can sustain--as established
by the initial cash flows for each rating--and compares that with
the current portfolio's default potential plus par losses to date.
As a result, until the end of the reinvestment period, the
collateral manager may through trading deteriorate the
transaction's current risk profile, if the initial ratings are
maintained.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, we consider
the transaction's exposure to country risk sufficiently mitigated
at the assigned ratings.
"The operational risk associated with key transaction parties (such
as the collateral manager) that provide an essential service to the
issuer is in line with our operational risk criteria.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our counterparty criteria. The transaction's legal structure
and framework is bankruptcy remote, in line with our legal
criteria.
"Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, the ratings are commensurate with the
available credit enhancement for the class A and F notes. Our
credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available credit
enhancement for the class B to E notes could withstand stresses
commensurate with higher ratings than those assigned. However, as
the CLO will be in its reinvestment phase starting from
closing--during which the transaction's credit risk profile could
deteriorate--we have capped our ratings on the notes.
"Given our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, our ratings are commensurate with the
available credit enhancement for all the rated classes of debt.
In addition to our standard analysis, to indicate how rising
pressures among speculative-grade corporates could affect our
ratings on European CLO transactions, we also included the
sensitivity of the ratings on the class A to E notes based on four
hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit or limit assets from being
related to certain industries. Since the exclusion of assets from
these industries does not result in material differences between
the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific
adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to account for
any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
BBAM European CLO VII is a European cash flow CLO securitization of
a revolving pool, comprising mainly euro-denominated leveraged
loans and bonds. It is managed by RBC Global Asset Management (UK)
Ltd.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) Interest rate§ enhancement (%)
A AAA (sf) 248.00 3M EURIBOR plus 1.29% 38.00
B AA (sf) 44.00 3M EURIBOR plus 1.85% 27.00
C A (sf) 24.00 3M EURIBOR plus 2.10% 21.00
D BBB- (sf) 28.00 3M EURIBOR plus 2.95% 14.00
E BB- (sf) 18.00 3M EURIBOR plus 5.20% 9.50
F B- (sf) 12.00 3M EURIBOR plus 8.00% 6.50
Sub. NR 32.00 N/A N/A
*The ratings assigned to the class A and B notes address timely
interest and ultimate principal payments. The ratings assigned to
the class C, D, E, and F notes address ultimate interest and
principal payments.
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
3M--three month.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
CARLYLE 2015-1: Fitch Assigns B-sf Final Rating to Cl. E-R-R Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Carlyle Global Market Strategies Euro
CLO 2015-1 DAC reset notes final ratings, as detailed below.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Carlyle Global Market
Strategies Euro
CLO 2015-1 DAC
A-1-LR LT AAAsf New Rating
A-1-R XS2109445671 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AAAsf
A-1-RR XS3190727647 LT AAAsf New Rating
A-2 XS3190727993 LT AAsf New Rating
A-2A-R XS2109446133 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AA+sf
A-2B-R XS2109446729 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AA+sf
B XS2109447537 LT PIFsf Paid In Full A+sf
B-R-R XS3190728298 LT Asf New Rating
C XS2109448006 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BBB+sf
C-R-R XS3190728538 LT BBB-sf New Rating
D XS2109448931 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BB+sf
D-R-R XS3190728702 LT BB-sf New Rating
E XS2109449582 LT PIFsf Paid In Full Bsf
E-R-R XS3190728967 LT B-sf New Rating
X-R XS3190727480 LT AAAsf New Rating
Transaction Summary
Carlyle Global Market Strategies Euro CLO 2015-1 DAC is a
securitisation of mainly senior secured obligations with a
component of senior unsecured, mezzanine, second-lien loans and
high-yield bonds. Note proceeds have been used to redeem the
existing notes, except the subordinated notes, and to top up the
portfolio with a target par of EUR450 million. The portfolio is
actively managed by Carlyle CLO Management Europe LLC. The
collateralised loan obligation (CLO) has a 4.4-year reinvestment
period and a 7.5-year weighted average life (WAL) test at closing.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch places the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch weighted
average rating factor of the identified portfolio is 25.1.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate of the identified portfolio is 61.3%.
Diversified Asset Portfolio (Positive): The transaction includes
various concentration limits in the portfolio, including a
fixed-rate obligation limit at 10%, a top 10 obligor concentration
limit at 15%, and a maximum exposure to the three largest
Fitch-defined industries in the portfolio at 40%. These covenants
ensure that the asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive
concentration.
WAL Test Step-Up Feature (Neutral): The transaction can extend its
WAL by one year on the step-up date, which is one year after
closing. The WAL extension is subject to conditions including the
satisfaction of collateral-quality tests, and the collateral
principal amount (treating defaulted obligations at their Fitch
collateral value) being at least equal to the reinvestment target
par balance.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction includes four Fitch
matrices. Two are effective at closing, corresponding to a 7.5-year
WAL. Another two are effective 18 months after closing,
corresponding to a seven-year WAL, and are subject to the
collateral principal amount (treating defaulted obligations at
their Fitch collateral value) being at least equal to the
reinvestment target par balance. Each matrix set corresponds to two
different fixed-rate asset limits at 10% and 5%. All matrices are
based on a top 10 obligor concentration limit at 15%.
The transaction has a 4.4-year reinvestment period governed by
reinvestment criteria similar to those of other European
transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on a stressed-case
portfolio with the aim of testing the robustness of the transaction
structure against its covenants and portfolio guidelines.
Cash Flow Analysis (Neutral): The WAL used for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio is 12 months less than the WAL covenant to
account for structural and reinvestment conditions after the
reinvestment period, including the satisfaction of the coverage
tests and Fitch 'CCC' limit, together with a consistently
decreasing WAL covenant. In Fitch's opinion, these conditions would
reduce the effective risk horizon of the portfolio during stress
periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) and a 25% decrease of
the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of the identified
portfolio would have no impact on the class X-R notes and A-1-RR
debt, and result in downgrades of one notch each for the class A-2,
B-RR, C-RR notes, and of two notches for the class D-RR notes. The
class E-RR notes would be downgraded to below 'B-sf'.
Downgrades, which are based on the identified portfolio, may occur
if the loss expectation is larger than Fitch assumed, due to
unexpectedly high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
The class A-2, C-RR and D-RR notes each have a rating cushion of
two notches, and the class B-RR and E-RR notes each have a cushion
of one notch, due to the better metrics and shorter life of the
identified portfolio than the Fitch-stressed portfolio.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings of the
Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of up to four
notches each for the class A-1-RR to C-RR debt, and to below 'B-sf'
for the class D-RR and E-RR notes. The class X-R notes would not be
affected,
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR and a 25% increase in the RRR
across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to
upgrades of up to three notches each for the rated notes, except
the 'AAAsf' notes.
Upgrades during the reinvestment period, which are based on the
Fitch-stressed portfolio, may occur on better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, allowing
the notes to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the
remaining life of the transaction. Upgrades after the end of the
reinvestment period may result from stable portfolio credit quality
and deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other nationally
recognised statistical rating organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Carlyle Global
Market Strategies Euro CLO 2015-1 DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
HARVEST CLO XXI: Fitch Affirms 'B+sf' Rating on Class F Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Harvest CLO XXI DAC's class B-1-R, B-2-R
and class C-R notes, and affirmed the rest.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Harvest CLO XXI DAC
A-1-R XS2326512378 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
A-2-R XS2326512964 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B-1-R XS2326513772 LT AAAsf Upgrade AA+sf
B-2-R XS2326514317 LT AAAsf Upgrade AA+sf
C-R XS2326515041 LT AA-sf Upgrade A+sf
D-R XS2326519035 LT BBB+sf Affirmed BBB+sf
E XS1951930533 LT BB+sf Affirmed BB+sf
F XS1951930616 LT B+sf Affirmed B+sf
Transaction Summary
Harvest CLO XXI DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior secured
loans (at least 90%) with a component of senior unsecured,
mezzanine and second-lien loans. The transaction is managed by
Investcorp Credit Management EU Limited and exited its reinvestment
period in October 2023.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Transaction Deleveraging: Around EUR60.1 million of the class A-1-R
notes and EUR8.5 million of the class A-2-R notes has been repaid
since its last review in December 2024. This deleveraging was
caused by the failure of certain tests that prevented the manager
from reinvesting, resulting in an increase in credit enhancement
for the rated notes.
Losses Below Rating Case Assumptions: As of the latest trustee
report, the transaction was around 2.3% below par (calculated as
defaults at trustee reported value less the reinvestment target par
balance and then divided by the current par difference over the
original target par). However, the loss is below its rating case
assumptions and the portfolio has no defaulted assets.
Low Refinancing Risk: The transaction has manageable exposure to
near- and medium-term refinancing risk, with no portfolio assets
maturing in 2025 and 0.9% maturing in 2026.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the underlying obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch-calculated weighted
average rating factor (WARF) of the current portfolio was 26.4
under the latest criteria.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
98.6% of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for
these assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The weighted average recovery rate of the current
portfolio as reported by the trustee was 63.4%.
Transaction Outside Reinvestment Period: The transaction exited its
reinvestment period in October 2023, and the most senior notes are
deleveraging. The transaction is failing the weighted average life
(WAL) test, another rating agency's 'CCC' test and the Fitch WARF
test, according to the trustee report. The manager has not made any
purchases since May 2025. As a result, Fitch's upgrade analysis is
based on the current portfolio with assets on Outlook Negative
notched down by one level, while the WAL is floored at four years,
according to its criteria.
Deviation from Modelled Implied Rating: The class D-R notes and
class C-R notes are rated one notch and two notches, respectively,
below their model-implied ratings (MIR), reflecting insufficient
default rate cushion at the MIRs.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Downgrades may occur if build-up of credit enhancement following
amortisation does not compensate for a larger loss expectation than
assumed, due to unexpectedly high levels of defaults and portfolio
deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may result from stable portfolio quality and continued
amortisation of the notes, leading to higher credit enhancement
across the structure.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other nationally
recognized statistical rating organisations and/or European
securities and markets authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Harvest CLO XXI
DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
PARTICIPATION STATUS
The rated entity (and/or its agents) or, in the case of structured
finance, one or more of the transaction parties participated in the
rating process except that the following issuer(s), if any, did not
participate in the rating process, or provide additional
information, beyond the issuer’s available public disclosure.
OCP EURO 2024-9: S&P Assigns B-(sf) Rating on Class F-R Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its credit ratings to OCP Euro CLO
2024-9 DAC's class A-R Loan and class X-R, A-R, B-R, C-R, D-1-R,
D-2-R, E-R, and F-R notes. At closing, the issuer also had unrated
subordinated notes outstanding from the existing transaction.
This transaction is a reset of the already existing transaction
that closed in May 2024. The issuance proceeds of the refinancing
notes were used to redeem the refinanced debt (the original
transaction's class A Loan, and class A, B-1, B-2, C, D, E, and F
notes, for which S&P withdrew its ratings at the same time), and
pay fees and expenses incurred in connection with the reset.
The ratings assigned to the reset debt reflect S&P's assessment
of:
-- The diversified collateral pool, which primarily comprises
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.
-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.
-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated debt through collateral selection, ongoing
portfolio management, and trading.
-- The transaction's legal structure, which is bankruptcy remote.
-- The transaction's counterparty risks, which are in line with
S&P's counterparty rating framework.
Portfolio benchmarks
S&P Global Ratings' weighted-average rating factor 2,667.04
Default rate dispersion 671.44
Weighted-average life (years) 4.31
Weighted-average life (years) including reinvestment 4.40
Obligor diversity measure 162.90
Industry diversity measure 24.36
Regional diversity measure 1.34
Transaction key metrics
Portfolio weighted-average rating
derived from S&P's CDO evaluator B
'CCC' category rated assets (%) 2.01
Portfolio target par amount (mil. EUR) 500
Actual 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%) 36.09
Actual weighted-average spread 3.68
Actual weighted-average coupon 2.51
Rating rationale
Under the transaction documents, the rated notes will pay quarterly
interest unless a frequency switch event occurs. Following this,
the notes will switch to semiannual payments.
The portfolio's reinvestment period will end on April 20, 2030.The
portfolio is well-diversified, primarily comprising broadly
syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and bonds.
Therefore, S&P has conducted its credit and cash flow analysis by
applying its criteria for corporate cash flow CDOs.
S&P said, "In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR500 million
target par amount, the actual weighted-average spread (3.68%),
actual weighted-average coupon (2.51%), and the covenanted
weighted-average recovery rate at each rating level.
"We applied various cash flow stress scenarios, using four
different default patterns, in conjunction with different interest
rate stress scenarios for each liability rating category.
"The transaction's documented counterparty replacement and remedy
mechanisms adequately mitigate its exposure to counterparty risk
under our current counterparty criteria.
"Under our structured finance sovereign risk criteria, the
transaction's exposure to country risk is sufficiently mitigated at
the assigned ratings.
"The transaction's legal structure and framework is bankruptcy
remote, in line with our legal criteria.
"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class B-R to E-R notes could withstand
stresses commensurate with higher ratings than those assigned.
However, as the CLO is still in its reinvestment phase, during
which the transaction's credit risk profile could deteriorate, we
capped our assigned ratings on these notes.
"For the class A-R Loan and class X-R, and A-R notes, our credit
and cash flow analysis indicate that the available credit
enhancement could withstand stresses commensurate with the assigned
rating.
"Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe our ratings are
commensurate with the available credit enhancement for the class
A-R Loan and class X-R to F-R notes.
"In addition to our standard analysis, to provide an indication of
how rising pressures among speculative-grade corporates could
affect our ratings on European CLO transactions, we have also
included the sensitivity of the ratings on the class A-R Loan and
X-R to E-R notes based on four hypothetical scenarios.
"As our ratings analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and we would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, we have not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F-R notes."
Environmental, social, and governance
S&P said, "We regard the exposure to environmental, social, and
governance (ESG) credit factors in the transaction as being broadly
in line with our benchmark for the sector. Primarily due to the
diversity of the assets within CLOs, the exposure to environmental
credit factors is viewed as below average, social credit factors
are below average, and governance credit factors are average. For
this transaction, the documents prohibit or limit assets from being
related to certain industries. Since the exclusion of assets from
these industries does not result in material differences between
the transaction and our ESG benchmark for the sector, no specific
adjustments have been made in our rating analysis to account for
any ESG-related risks or opportunities."
OCPE 2024-9 DAC is a European cash flow CLO securitization of a
revolving pool, comprising euro-denominated senior secured loans
and bonds issued mainly by speculative-grade borrowers. Onex Credit
Partners, LLC is the collateral manager.
Ratings
Amount Credit
Class Rating* (mil. EUR) enhancement (%) Interest rate§
X-R AAA (sf) 2.50 N/A Three/six-month Euribor
plus 0.83%
A-R AAA (sf) 150.00 38.00 Three/six-month Euribor
plus 1.30%
A-R Loan AAA (sf) 160.00 38.00 Three/six-month Euribor
plus 1.30%
B-R AA (sf) 51.50 27.70 Three/six-month Euribor
plus 1.80%
C-R A (sf) 32.00 21.30 Three/six-month Euribor
plus 2.20%
D-1-R BBB- (sf) 36.50 14.00 Three/six-month Euribor
plus 3.25%
D-2-R BBB- (sf) 1.50 13.70 Three/six-month Euribor
plus 3.95%
E-R BB- (sf) 22.25 9.25 Three/six-month Euribor
plus 5.70%
F-R B- (sf) 14.00 6.45 Three/six-month Euribor
plus 8.30%
Sub. Notes NR 53.90 N/A N/A
*S&P said, "Our ratings on the class A-R Loan and A-R, and B-R
notes address timely interest and ultimate principal payments. Our
ratings on the class C-R, D-1-R, D-2-R, E-R, and F-R notes address
ultimate interest and principal payments."
§The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.
EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
N/A--Not applicable.
PENTA CLO 10: Fitch Hikes Rating on Class E Notes to 'BBsf'
-----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Penta CLO 10 DAC's class C to E notes
and affirmed the rest. The Outlooks on the notes are Stable.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Penta CLO 10 DAC
A XS2401707877 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
B-1 XS2401707950 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
B-2 XS2401708339 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
C XS2401708412 LT A+sf Upgrade Asf
D XS2401708255 LT BBBsf Upgrade BBB-sf
E XS2401708925 LT BBsf Upgrade BB-sf
F XS2401709063 LT B-sf Affirmed B-sf
Transaction Summary
Penta CLO 10 DAC is a cash flow collateralised loan obligation
(CLO), mostly comprising senior secured obligations. The deal is
actively managed by Partners Group (UK) Management Limited and its
reinvestment period is scheduled to end in November 2026.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Stable Performance, Shorter Risk Horizon: The portfolio's credit
quality has remained stable over the last 12 months. Exposure to
assets with a Fitch-Derived Rating of 'CCC+' and below remains low
at 2.3%, versus a limit of 7.5%, according to the latest trustee
report dated September 2025. The transaction is around 0.57% below
par (calculated as the current par difference over the original
target par) and defaults comprise 0.3% of the portfolio's
outstanding principal balance.
The transaction is also passing all its collateral-quality,
portfolio-profile and coverage tests. The stable performance of the
transaction, combined with a shortened weighted average life (WAL)
test covenant since the last review in December 2024, resulted in
today's upgrades and affirmations.
Low Refinancing Risks: The transaction has low near- and
medium-term refinancing risk, with no portfolio assets maturing in
2025 and 0.4% maturing in 2026.
Revolving Transaction: The transaction is still in its reinvestment
period which is scheduled to end in November 2026. During this
phase, principal proceeds are actively reinvested, resulting in
ongoing changes to portfolio metrics. Accordingly, Fitch based its
analysis on the Fitch-stressed portfolio, which assumes portfolio
parameters at their maximum covenant allowances.
'B'/'B-' Portfolio: Fitch assesses the average credit quality of
the underlying obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The weighted average rating
factor of the current portfolio is 24.9 as calculated by Fitch
under its latest criteria. About 11.5% of the portfolio is
currently on Negative Outlook.
High Recovery Expectations: Senior secured obligations comprise
99.4% of the portfolio. Fitch views the recovery prospects for
these assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery
rate of the current portfolio is 59.6%.
Diversified Portfolio: The portfolio is well-diversified across
obligors, countries and industries. The top 10 obligor
concentration, as calculated by Fitch, is 11.2%, and no obligor
represents more than 1.4% of the portfolio balance. Exposure to the
three largest Fitch-defined industries is 37.1%, as calculated by
Fitch. Fixed-rate assets reported by the trustee are at 2.6%,
complying with the limit of 5%.
Cash Flow Analysis: Fitch used a customised proprietary cash flow
model to replicate the principal and interest waterfalls and the
various structural features of the transaction, and to assess their
effectiveness, including the structural protection provided by
excess spread diverted through the par-value and interest-coverage
tests. The transaction benefits from a low weighted average cost of
capital of 1.9%.
Deviation from Modelled Implied Rating: The rating for the class B
notes is one notch below its model-implied rating, reflecting their
thin default-rate cushions at higher ratings. A deterioration in
portfolio credit quality would further erode these cushions.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Downgrades may occur if the loss expectation is larger than
assumed, due to unexpectedly high levels of default and portfolio
deterioration.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Upgrades may result from stable portfolio credit quality and
deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other nationally
recognised statistical rating organisations and/or European
securities and markets authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Penta CLO 10 DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
RONDA RMBS 2025: S&P Assigns Prelim. Bsf Rating on F-Dfrd Notes
---------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its preliminary credit ratings to Ronda
RMBS 2025 DAC's class A, B-Dfrd, C-Dfrd, D-Dfrd, E-Dfrd, and F-Dfrd
notes. At closing, the issuer will also issue unrated class X, G,
RFN notes and VRR Loan.
S&P said, "Our preliminary ratings address the timely payment of
interest and the ultimate payment of principal on the class A
notes. Our preliminary ratings on the class B-Dfrd, C-Dfrd, D-Dfrd,
E-Dfrd, and F-Dfrd notes address the ultimate payment of interest
and principal on these notes, and timely payment of interest when
they become the most senior class of notes outstanding." Unpaid
interest will not accrue additional interest and will be due at the
notes' legal final maturity.
Credit enhancement for the rated notes will comprise mainly
subordination. A fully funded liquidity reserve fund will be
available from closing to meet revenue shortfalls on the class A
and B-Dfrd notes when they become the most senior class
outstanding.
The pool of EUR422.7 million was originated by various banks and
saving banks in Spain, which have now been consolidated into Banco
Santander S.A. (Banco Santander). The assets are first-ranking
reperforming mortgages secured primarily on residential
properties.
63% of the borrowers have had their loans restructured in the past.
In a stressed economic environment, there is increased probability
of these borrowers going back into arrears.
Within the pool, more than 32% of the loans are at least one month
in arrears, with 17.5% of these borrowers being more than three
months in arrears. S&P views these borrowers as having a higher
risk of default.
The primary servicer, Banco Santander is an experienced servicer
with well-established servicing systems and policies. Additionally,
given the material percentage of assets (32.10%) that are currently
in arrears, Pepper Spanish Servicing, S.L.U (Pepper) will act as
special servicer on these assets and master servicer of the overall
portfolio
S&P said, "We received legal opinions that aim to provide comfort
that the sale of the mortgage certificates would survive the
seller's insolvency. We also received tax opinions that set out the
issuer's tax liabilities under the current tax legislation,
particularly with regards to withholding tax under the FT bond. The
Spanish FT will be subject to value-added tax from services
provided to it (i.e. servicing fees). We have incorporated these
potential taxes that would reduce the issuer's available funds."
Compared to other transactions, FT Jerez will not be duly
registered at closing. If six months have elapsed since the closing
date without FT Jerez having been incorporated into the official
registers of the CNMV, the FT Jerez Management Company will be
entitled to proceed with an early liquidation of FT Jerez and,
consequently, to redeem the FT Jerez Bonds. In such a scenario, the
FT will not receive payments due under the mortgage certificates
and, in turn, will not be able to make payments due on the FT bonds
until it is duly registered with the CNMV. The occurrence of such
an early redemption event would have a direct and adverse impact on
the issuer's ability to meet its obligation under the rated notes.
S&P said, "At closing, we will only assign preliminary ratings. The
assignment of final ratings is contingent upon the successful
registration of the Spanish securitization fund (Fondo de
Titulización, FT) with the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de
Valores (CNMV). We understand that such registration typically
occurs within two to three weeks following submission of the
application. While a short delay beyond this timeline may be
accommodated, if registration is not completed at least one month
prior to the issuer's first interest payment date (IPD), we will
withdraw the preliminary ratings."
Ratings
Prelim.
Class rating* Amount (EUR) Coupon (%)
A AAA (sf) 263,018,000 Three-month EURIBOR + 0.80
B-Dfrd* AA (sf) 20,077,000 Three-month EURIBOR + 1.50
C-Dfrd* A (sf) 18,069,000 Three-month EURIBOR + 2.00
D-Dfrd* BBB (sf) 12,046,000 Three-month EURIBOR + 2.50
E-Dfrd* BB (sf) 13,050,000 Three-month EURIBOR + 3.00
F-Dfrd* B (sf) 6,023,000 Three-month EURIBOR + 3.50
G NR 69,268,000 8.00
RFN NR 7,891,000 N/A
VRR Loan NR 21,555,000 N/A
X NR 100,000 0.08
*S&P's preliminary ratings address timely payment of interest and
ultimate repayment of principal for the class A notes, and the
ultimate payment of interest and principal on the other rated
notes. S&P's preliminary ratings also address the timely payment of
interest on the rated notes when they become most senior
outstanding. Any deferred interest is due at maturity.
†The structure includes an X note that is pari passu with the
class A interest payment. The fixed rate is calculated on the asset
balance.
NR--Not rated.
N/A--Not applicable.
SOUND POINT I: Moody's Affirms B1 Rating on EUR15MM Cl. F-R Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has upgraded the ratings on the following debt
issued by Sound Point Euro CLO I Funding Designated Activity
Company:
EUR34,750,000 Class B-1-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2034, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on May 25, 2021 Assigned Aa2
(sf)
EUR12,750,000 Class B-2-R Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due
2034, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on May 25, 2021 Assigned Aa2
(sf)
EUR33,850,000 Class C-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on May 25, 2021
Assigned A2 (sf)
EUR33,650,000 Class D-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Upgraded to A3 (sf); previously on May 25, 2021
Assigned Baa3 (sf)
Moody's have also affirmed the ratings on the following debt:
EUR150,400,000 Class A-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2034, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on May 25, 2021 Assigned Aaa
(sf)
EUR159,600,000 Class A-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Loan due
2034, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on May 25, 2021 Assigned Aaa
(sf)
EUR26,250,000 Class E-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed Ba2 (sf); previously on May 25, 2021
Assigned Ba2 (sf)
EUR15,000,000 Class F-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2034, Affirmed B1 (sf); previously on May 25, 2021
Assigned B1 (sf)
Sound Point Euro CLO I Funding Designated Activity Company, issued
in May 2019 and refinanced in May 2021, is a collateralised loan
obligation (CLO) backed by a portfolio of mostly high-yield senior
secured European loans. The portfolio is managed by Sound Point CLO
C-MOA, LLC ("Sound Point"). The transaction's reinvestment period
will end in November 2025.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating upgrades on the Class B-1-R, B-2-R, C-R and D-R debt are
primarily a result of the benefit of the shorter period of time
remaining before the end of the reinvestment period in November
2025.
The affirmations on the ratings on the Class A-R, A-R Loan, E-R and
F-R debt are primarily a result of the expected losses on the debt
remaining consistent with their current rating levels, after taking
into account the CLO's latest portfolio, its relevant structural
features and its actual over-collateralisation ratios.
In light of reinvestment restrictions during the amortisation
period, and therefore the limited ability to effect significant
changes to the current collateral pool, Moody's analysed the deal
assuming a higher likelihood that the collateral pool
characteristics would maintain an adequate buffer relative to
certain covenant requirements.
The key model inputs Moody's uses in Moody's analysis, such as par,
weighted average rating factor, diversity score and the weighted
average recovery rate, are based on Moody's published methodology
and could differ from the trustee's reported numbers.
In Moody's base case, Moody's used the following assumptions:
Performing par and principal proceeds balance: EUR496.0m
Defaulted Securities: EUR5.3m
Diversity Score: 57
Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 2900
Weighted Average Life (WAL): 4.40 years
Weighted Average Spread (WAS) (before accounting for Euribor
floors): 3.64%
Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 3.66%
Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 44.30%
Par haircut in OC tests and interest diversion test: 0%
The default probability derives from the credit quality of the
collateral pool and Moody's expectations of the remaining life of
the collateral pool. The estimated average recovery rate on future
defaults is based primarily on the seniority of the assets in the
collateral pool. In each case, historical and market performance
and a collateral manager's latitude to trade collateral are also
relevant factors. Moody's incorporates these default and recovery
characteristics of the collateral pool into Moody's cash flow model
analysis, subjecting them to stresses as a function of the target
rating of each CLO liability it is analysing.
Moody's notes that the October 2025 trustee report was published at
the time Moody's were completing Moody's analysis of the November
2025 data. Key portfolio metrics such as WARF, diversity score,
weighted average spread and life, and OC ratios exhibit little or
no change between these dates.
Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Collateralized
Loan Obligations" published in October 2025.
Counterparty Exposure:
The rating action took into consideration the debt's exposure to
relevant counterparties, such account bank, using the methodology
"Structured Finance Counterparty Risks" published in May 2025.
Moody's concluded the ratings of the debts are not constrained by
these risks.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
The rated debt's performance is subject to uncertainty. The debt's
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the debt's
performance.
Additional uncertainty about performance is due to the following:
-- Portfolio amortisation: Once reaching the end of the
reinvestment period in November 2025, the main source of
uncertainty in this transaction is the pace of amortisation of the
underlying portfolio, which can vary significantly depending on
market conditions and have a significant impact on the debt's
ratings. Amortisation could accelerate as a consequence of high
loan prepayment levels or collateral sales by the collateral
manager or be delayed by an increase in loan amend-and-extend
restructurings. Fast amortisation would usually benefit the ratings
of the debt beginning with the debt having the highest prepayment
priority.
-- Weighted average life: The debt's ratings are sensitive to the
weighted average life assumption of the portfolio, which could
lengthen as a result of the manager's decision to reinvest in new
issue loans or other loans with longer maturities, or participate
in amend-to-extend offerings. The effect on the ratings of
extending the portfolio's weighted average life can be positive or
negative depending on the debt's seniority.
-- Recovery of defaulted assets: Market value fluctuations in
trustee-reported defaulted assets and those Moody's assumes have
defaulted can result in volatility in the deal's
over-collateralisation levels. Further, the timing of recoveries
and the manager's decision whether to work out or sell defaulted
assets can also result in additional uncertainty. Moody's analysed
defaulted recoveries assuming the lower of the market price or the
recovery rate to account for potential volatility in market prices.
Recoveries higher than Moody's expectations would have a positive
impact on the debt's ratings.
In addition to the quantitative factors that Moody's explicitly
modelled, qualitative factors are part of the rating committee's
considerations. These qualitative factors include the structural
protections in the transaction, its recent performance given the
market environment, the legal environment, specific documentation
features, the collateral manager's track record and the potential
for selection bias in the portfolio. All information available to
rating committees, including macroeconomic forecasts, input from
Moody's other analytical groups, market factors, and judgments
regarding the nature and severity of credit stress on the
transactions, can influence the final rating decision.
=========
I T A L Y
=========
EOLO SPA: Fitch Affirms 'B-' Long-Term IDR, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Eolo SpA's Long-Term Issuer Default
Rating (IDR) at 'B-' with a Stable Outlook. Fitch also affirmed the
company's senior secured notes (SSN) at 'B' with a Recovery Rating
of 'RR3'.
Eolo's ratings reflect its expectations of negative free cash flow
(FCF) due to high capex. They also reflect Eolo's good operating
performance to date and its shareholders' demonstrated commitment
to support liquidity through capital injections.
The Stable Outlook reflects Fitch's expectations that Eolo is
likely to achieve neutral FCF in the next four to five years and
make sufficient progress in executing its business plan ahead of
refinancing in 2028. Fitch estimates that current committed undrawn
equity of EUR40 million and an undrawn EUR14 million revolving
credit facility (RCF) should suffice in covering the company's
liquidity needs ahead of FCF generation. A lack of adequate FCF
improvement and visibility on the company's business model could
increase risks to refinancing in the medium term.
Key Rating Drivers
Negative FCF: Its base case expects Eolo's growth strategy and
network upgrade to keep FCF negative until FY30 (year ending
March). Persisting negative FCF alongside significant execution
risks are key influences on Eolo's rating and business profile.
Fitch expects the Fitch-defined EBITDA margin to increase to about
40% in FY29, from about 37% in FY25. Capex will decrease to 25% of
revenue, from 40%, in the same period, but upcoming refinancing of
instruments maturing in FY29 will likely increase the company's
interest costs, keeping FCF negative for longer, despite increased
EBITDA and lower capex.
Liquidity Secured through Shareholder Support: Under Fitch's base
case forecasts, the current available undrawn liquidity is likely
to be sufficient to get the company to its FCF break-even point.
However, Fitch expects Eolo's shareholders to intervene should the
company need additional support. Eolo has received additional
commitments of shareholder support to preserve liquidity and
continue investing in its network and in customer acquisition at
the current pace. The company has access to EUR40 million undrawn
shareholder support, after drawing on the EUR50 million made
available to it in FY25.
Upcoming Refinancing Risks: Sustained negative FCF may increase
Eolo's refinancing risk. The company's EUR375 million notes due in
October 2028 have a 4.875% fixed rate, which is well below market
rates for credits with similar ratings. It is likely that the
refinancing of its secured instruments due in 2028 will lead to an
increase in interest costs. Fitch's base case assumes a refinancing
interest rate of 9% for Eolo, which would increase its interest
costs by around EUR20 million and delay the company's FCF
break-even by two years.
Eolo Launches 1Gbps Offer: Eolo has launched its 1Gbps offer, which
will allow it to compete with fibre in overlapping areas and
protect and increase its market share. Fitch also expects the offer
to support the company's expansion of wholesale revenues. The 1Gbps
offer was made possible by Eolo's strategic partnership with
Fastweb, signed in April 2024, allowing Eolo exclusive access to
Fastweb's 26GHz spectrum. The agreement also gives Fastweb
wholesale access to Eolo's fixed wireless access (FWA) footprint,
enlarging Eolo's wholesale revenue growth opportunities.
New Capex Requirements: Eolo will initially need additional capex
to install antennas compatible with the new 26GHz frequencies on
its existing base transceiver stations. However, the transition to
26GHz will significantly benefit the company's FCF profile over the
long term, because the customer premise equipment (CPE) cost for
26GHz is much less than that for 28GHz frequencies. This means that
customer growth will be less expensive and have a higher FCF
conversion for every new customer on 26GHz.
Capex to Remain High: Fitch expects Eolo's capex to remain high at
over EUR250 million for FY26-FY28 before benefiting from the 26GHz
lower CPE cost. Its capex estimates include the cost to cover the
extension of the right-of-use of frequencies. Investments will
complete the coverage of Eolo's addressable market and upgrade its
network technology. Fitch estimates that in case of distress Eolo's
minimum capex would be around EUR60 million. At this level, the
company is likely to be able to invest in minimum short-term
customer additions but at the expense of its longer-term growth.
Good Customer Growth: Eolo's customer base grew by 3.7% year on
year in 1QFY26. The company increased its market share to 3.68% as
of March 2025, compared with 3.53% in the previous year. The share
of ultrabroadband subscribers among its active contracts increased
to 57% in 1QFY26, from 50% in 1QFY25, which Fitch views as credit
positive, as customers using this technology have lower churn than
those using Eolo's 5GHz technology. Eolo's subscriber base growth
is likely to slow in FY26 following the company's price increases
and as expected from its strategic focus on value rather than
volume.
Risks to FWA Operating Environment: Fitch believes FWA could be a
key technology in Italy, where fibre-to-the-home networks will not
be deployed or where fibre-to-the-cabinet connection is
sub-optimal. Fitch believes long-term fibre-to-the-home coverage
will be 85%-90% of Italian households, leaving a 10%-15% market
opportunity for FWA. Increasing medium-term household data
consumption should support broadband fixed connectivity usage.
However, in the long term FWA may be challenged by alternative
wireless technologies, such as satellite broadband and the
extensive deployment of 5G mobile networks.
Peer Analysis
Within the FWA technology niche of the Italian broadband market,
Eolo's peer is Tiscali (previously Linkem), which also operates a
FWA network but with limited geographical overlap. Eolo's ratings
are based on an expanding business model, high leverage, and large
capex requirements driving negative FCF. Its operating and
financial profiles are commensurate with a 'B-' rating.
Eolo is comparable with speculative-grade issuers in the
telecommunications sector, particularly smaller ones that cover
niche market positions. Nuuday A/S (B/ Stable) also has high
leverage and capex requirements driving negative FCF. It is the
leader in the end-user market for mobile and broadband services in
Denmark. For its infrastructure it relies on its network partner
TDC NET A/S (BB/Stable).
High leverage, tight liquidity and negative FCF generation are key
constraints on Eolo's ratings.
Key Assumptions
- Revenue growth of around 1% in FY26 and 4.7% FY27, benefiting
from increased wholesale revenue from Fastweb, and increasing to
4.8% and 5% in FY28 and FY29, respectively, as higher adoption of
the 26Ghz frequency improves customer growth and average revenue
per user (ARPU)
- Subscriber growth at an average of 5% a year for FY27-FY30, with
stable ARPU
- Moderate growth in ARPU from around EUR29 a month
- Limited cash tax payments due to large losses carried forward
until FY29
- Capex at around 40% of revenue in FY26 and 25%-35% in FY27-FY30
Recovery Analysis
Its recovery analysis assumes Eolo would be considered a going
concern (GC) in bankruptcy, and that it would be reorganised rather
than liquidated. This is based on the inherent value of its FWA
network in suburban and rural areas in Italy. Fitch has assumed a
10% administrative claim.
Fitch assesses GC EBITDA at about EUR80 million. Fitch assumes
financial distress will be driven by slower customer growth,
stagnation in pricing and higher capex requirements to maintain the
customer base. This will lead to shrinking margins and higher cash
needs to fund capex, causing increases in leverage. At the GC
EBITDA level, Fitch expects Eolo to have negative FCF. However, the
company may be able to achieve positive FCF after scaling back
capex, with a cut in unprofitable areas from its FWA coverage. A
sale to another telecoms operator with greater scale may also be an
option.
Fitch uses a 5.0x multiple, at the midpoint of its distressed
multiples range for high-yield and leveraged-finance credits. Its
choice of multiple is justified by the potential attractiveness of
the business for other Italian telecoms operators, balanced by the
lack of FCF generation in the medium term.
Fitch assumes Eolo's EUR140 million RCF to be fully drawn on
default. The RCF ranks super senior and ahead of SSNs. Its
waterfall analysis generates a ranked recovery for the SSN
noteholders in the 'RR3' category, leading to a 'B' instrument
rating.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Evidence of deterioration in short-term liquidity, due to a
persistently fully drawn RCF and lack of visibility on timely
shareholder support
- Increased refinancing risk as maturities on the RCF and notes
approach
- Disruptions to FWA expansion due to lack of access to frequency
renewals or faster-than-expected and more efficient roll-out of
fibre networks in rural and suburban areas in Italy
- EBITDA leverage higher than 6.0x, caused by a reduction in
margins and by increases in gross debt
- EBITDA interest coverage below 3.0x
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Increase in liquidity headroom through additional facilities or
reimbursements under the RCF
- Evidence of improvements in cash flow generation, leading to
neutral to positive FCF margins
- A successful roll-out of the FWA network leading to broadband
leadership in target niches with customer expansion and control on
pricing
- EBITDA leverage sustainably below 4.5x
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Eolo's cash position as of 1QFY26 was EUR14 million with remaining
RCF availability of around EUR14 million, which Fitch expects the
company to draw down in FY26. The company also has access to EUR40
million of committed equity injection from shareholders, which
Fitch expects the company to use in two tranches in FY27 and FY28.
The company's senior secured RCF of EUR140 million is due in April
2028 and its EUR375 million fixed-rate notes are due in October
2028. Fitch expects the company to refinance these instruments well
ahead of their maturities. Refinancing will likely cause an
increase in interest costs for the company, which may delay FCF
break-even.
Issuer Profile
Eolo is a provider of broadband and ultra-broadband services in
Italy. It focuses on rural and suburban areas through the
deployment of FWA and is the leading operator in Italy for this
technology.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
EOLO S.p.A. LT IDR B- Affirmed B-
senior secured LT B Affirmed RR3 B
===========
P O L A N D
===========
SYNTHOS SA: Moody's Cuts CFR & EUR600MM Sr Sec Notes Rating to Ba3
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings downgraded Synthos S.A.'s (Synthos or the company)
long-term corporate family rating to Ba3 from Ba2 and probability
of default rating to Ba3-PD from Ba2-PD. Concurrently Moody's
downgraded to Ba3 from Ba2 the instrument rating on the EUR600
million guaranteed senior secured notes (SSNs) due 2028 issued by
the company. The outlook remains negative.
RATINGS RATIONALE
"The downgrade of Synthos' CFR to Ba3 reflects the company's
sustained earnings deterioration over the last three years and
expectation that recovery will only be gradual", says Sebastien
Cieniewski, a Moody's Ratings Vice President – Senior Credit
Officer and lead analyst for Synthos. Moody's adjusted gross
leverage increased to 5.3x as of the last twelve months (LTM)
period to June 30, 2025 (Moody's includes net foreign exchange
losses and losses on derivatives in Moody's calculations of EBITDA)
due mainly to a depressed market for insulation materials only
partly mitigated by recovery in synthetic rubber. Moody's forecasts
leverage to rise even higher towards 6.0x by the end of 2025
reflecting temporary maintenance work to be completed at the
company's Schkopau facility in Germany in H2 2025, before improving
from 2026. Given upcoming maturities of its EUR500 million
revolving credit facility (RCF) in August 2027 and the SSNs in June
2028, restoration of earnings will be key for facilitating the
refinancing of these facilities, which would likely come at a
higher interest rate.
Synthos' CFR is weakly positioned within the Ba3 rating category.
Nevertheless, credit metrics could improve over 2026–2027,
supported by several positive catalysts, including: (1) the absence
of maintenance-related outages, leading to increased synthetic
rubber production availability; (2) a favorable impact on volumes
and pricing stemming from competitors' closure of insulation
materials and synthetic rubber capacity across Europe; and (3)
lower utility costs and improved commercial terms for some
monomers. Synthos should also benefit from higher free cash flow
(FCF) generation with higher projected earnings and a significant
decrease in capital expenditures in 2026 and 2027 following the
completion of its key strategic investments, including its new
butadiene unit in Plock, Poland. Moody's assumes that the company
will use the excess cash to repay drawings under the RCF supporting
deleveraging towards 4.0x in 2026 and below 3.5x by 2027.
However, the pace in earnings recovery remains uncertain after a
prolonged period of underperformance and relies on increased
activity in the European construction sector while demand for
synthetic rubber remains robust including from exports to Asia. At
the same time Moody's projects a weakening in earnings from
Synthos' utility segment due to the normalization of electricity
prices from the peak reached after the outbreak of the war in
Ukraine.
Moody's views the restoration of positive earnings momentum as an
important factor to facilitate the refinancing of Synthos' debt
obligations. The RCF and the SSNs come due in August 2027 and June
2028, respectively. The company has been operating at well above
its own financial target of company defined net leverage in the
2.0x to 2.5x range (4.0x reported as of June 30, 2025).
LIQUIDITY
Synthos' liquidity is adequate, supported by PLN1,120 million
(EUR264 million equivalent) availability under its RCF and cash of
PLN80 million as of June 30, 2025. Moody's projects an improvement
in FCF to mid- to high- single-digit rates as a percentage of
Moody's adjusted gross debt in 2026 and 2027. Moody's projects FCF
to be negative in 2025 due to depressed earnings, still elevated
capital expenditures, and unfavourable working capital change
mainly due to a PLN271 million settlement payment related to a
claim against a supplier at the company's Schkopau facility. The
company has two incurrence covenants in its bond documentation
which do not affect its ability to draw down on its existing RCF,
and the RCF has no maintenance covenants.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
The Ba3 rating on the EUR600 million SSNs is aligned with the CFR.
The SSNs rank pari passu with the EUR500 million RCF. The SSNs are
guaranteed by operating entities accounting for the bulk of the
group's consolidated assets, revenues and accounting EBITDA and
secured by share pledges and real estate of Polish subsidiaries.
OUTLOOK
The negative outlook reflects uncertainty around the timing and
level of recovery for Synthos' earnings as the company has been
operating in a challenging insulation materials market for the last
three years. The negative outlook also reflects the weak
positioning of Synthos within the rating category and the
increasing pressure on liquidity from approaching debt maturities
for the RCF in August 2027 and the SSNs in June 2028.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Positive ratings pressure is limited over the short-term, however,
over time the ratings could be upgraded in the context of a strong
and sustained recovery in volumes and prices in particular for
Synthos' insulation materials segment. For positive pressure
Moody's would expect Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA sustainably
well below 3.0x and strong liquidity with long debt maturities, and
FCF to debt sustained at least at high single digit rates. A higher
rating would also require continued commitment to conservative and
predictable financial policy, particularly in relation to
shareholder returns.
The ratings could be downgraded if Moody's do not see a material
improvement in market fundamentals which translates into improved
operational performance for Synthos in the short-term. The rating
could be downgraded if Synthos is not able to reduce its adjusted
debt/EBITDA to below 4.0x over the next 12 months or fails to
generate meaningful positive FCF of above 5% as a percentage of
Moody's adjusted gross debt. Negative pressure would also arise if
Synthos does not present a strategy to refinance its debt well in
advance of maturity.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Chemicals
published in October 2023.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in Oswiecim, Poland, Synthos is one of the leading
European synthetic rubber and styrene producers, with its
production facilities located in Poland, the Czech Republic,
France, Germany and the Netherlands. Synthos is a privately held
company, beneficially owned by Mr. Michal Solowow via MS Galleon
GmbH registered in Austria.
===============
P O R T U G A L
===============
TAGUS - VASCO FINANCE 1: DBRS Cuts Class E Notes Rating to B(low)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
DBRS Ratings GmbH downgraded the credit ratings on the following
notes (collectively, the Notes) issued by Tagus - Sociedade de
Titularizacao de Creditos, S.A. (Vasco Finance No. 1) (the Issuer)
and removed the Under Review with Negative Implication status:
-- Class A Notes downgraded to AA (low) (sf) from AA (high) (sf)
-- Class B Notes downgraded to BBB (high) (sf) from A (sf)
-- Class C Notes downgraded to BBB (low) (sf) from BBB (sf)
-- Class D Notes downgraded to BB (low) (sf) from BB (sf)
-- Class E Notes downgraded to B (low) (sf) from B (sf)
Morningstar DBRS did not rate the Class F, Class R or Class X Notes
also issued by the Issuer and notes the Class R Notes were fully
repaid in February 2024.
The credit ratings of the Class A, Class B and Class C Notes
address the timely payment of scheduled interest and the ultimate
repayment of principal by the legal final maturity date. The credit
ratings of the Class D and Class E Notes address the ultimate
payment of scheduled interest and principal by the legal final
maturity date.
The Issuer is the earliest outstanding credit card securitization
program established by WiZink Bank S.A.U., Portuguese Branch (the
seller) after the full repayment of Tagus - Sociedade de
Titularizacao de Creditos, S.A. (Victoria Finance No. 1) in June
2025.
CREDIT RATING RATIONALE
Morningstar DBRS based the above credit rating actions on the
following analytical considerations:
-- The transaction's capital structure, including the form and
sufficiency of available credit enhancement to withstand stressed
cashflow assumptions and repay the Issuer's financial obligations
according to the terms under which the Notes were issued
-- The credit quality of the seller's portfolio, the
characteristics of the collateral, its historical performance and
Morningstar DBRS' expectation of monthly principal payment rates
(MPPRs), yield and charge-off rates under various stress scenarios
-- The seller's capabilities with respect to servicing and its
position in the market and financial strength
-- The transaction parties' financial strength regarding their
respective roles
-- Morningstar DBRS' long-term sovereign credit rating of the
Republic of Portugal, currently A (high) with a stable trend
-- The consistency of the transaction's legal structure with
Morningstar DBRS' "Legal and Derivative Criteria for European
Structured Finance Transactions" methodology
TRANSACTION STRUCTURE
The transaction entered into amortization after August 2024 with a
pro rata redemption among the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D,
Class E and Class F Notes, based on the respective percentages of
68.46%, 9.48%, 5.51%, 6.97%, 4.98% and 4.55%. The Class X Notes are
repaid from the interest waterfall. As of October 2025 payment
date, the class factor was 55.13% and no sequential amortization
trigger or event of default has occurred so far.
The transaction includes a cash reserve to cover the shortfalls in
senior expenses, servicing fees, senior swap payments and interest
on the Class A and, if not deferred, Class B and Class C Notes. The
reserve amount is maintained at the target 2% of the outstanding
principal amount of the Class A, Class B and Class C Notes and
could amortize down to a floor equal to 0.5% of the initial amount
of the Class A, Class B and Class C Notes.
Morningstar DBRS considers the interest rate risk of the
transaction to be limited as an interest rate swap continues to be
in place to reduce the mismatch between the fixed-rate collateral
and the floating-rate Notes.
COUNTERPARTIES
Deutsche Bank AG remains as the account bank for the transaction.
Based on its Long-Term Issuer Rating of A (high) and the downgrade
provisions outlined in the transaction documents, Morningstar DBRS
considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to
be commensurate with the assigned credit ratings.
BNP Paribas remains as the swap counterparty for the transaction.
Morningstar DBRS has a Long-Term Issuer Rating of AA (low) on BNP
Paribas, which meets Morningstar DBRS criteria to act in such
capacity. The transaction documents contain downgrade provisions
largely consistent with Morningstar DBRS criteria.
PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS
Morningstar DBRS placed the transaction Under Review with Negative
Implication in August 2025 following a review of the key
performance metric of MPPRs, which experienced a sharp decline from
7.8% at the end of revolving period in August 2024 to a historical
low of 3.1% in May 2025, before steadily increasing to 3.8% by
October 2025. Such volatile performance stems from the intended
amortization period without further receivables being transferred,
which has a noticeable negative impact on the borrower repayment
behavior compared to the seller's total managed portfolio.
As the collections of securitized receivables related to
transactors, which pay full or most balances, have already been
used to amortize the transaction and exited the securitized
portfolio during the initial periods of the amortization period,
the remaining securitized portfolio consists entirely of revolver
accounts and revolving balances crystalized at the end of the
revolving period and segregated from the seller's total managed
portfolio or other outstanding credit card securitization
transactions of Tagus - Sociedade de Titularizacao de Creditos,
S.A. (Vasco Finance No. 2) and Tagus - Sociedade de Titularizacao
de Creditos, S.A. (Vasco Finance No. 3).
While Morningstar DBRS continued to apply stresses to the
revolver-portfolio with the lower end of the stress ranges, which
are consistent with Vasco Finance No. 2 and Vasco Finance No. 3.
transactions and reflective of the low expected MPPR during the
amortization period after the exit of transactors, the relatively
high expected charge-off level and the yield floor support from the
usury rate, the current MPPR levels remain below Morningstar DBRS'
expected MPPR. Lower MPPRs, therefore, result in a longer tail of
the transaction in stressed scenarios, higher incurred losses, less
favorable cash flow outcomes and consequently credit rating
downgrades. In comparison, the current charge-off and yield levels
are comparable to Morningstar DBRS' expectations.
FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS
Morningstar DBRS' credit ratings on the applicable classes address
the credit risk associated with the identified financial
obligations in accordance with the relevant transaction documents.
Where applicable, a description of these financial obligations can
be found in the transactions' respective press releases at
issuance.
Morningstar DBRS' credit ratings do not address non-payment risk
associated with contractual payment obligations contemplated in the
applicable transaction documents that are not financial
obligations.
Notes: All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.
=========
S P A I N
=========
CAIXABANK CONSUMO 7: DBRS Gives Prov. BB(high) Rating to D Notes
----------------------------------------------------------------
DBRS Ratings GmbH assigned provisional credit ratings to the
following notes (the Rated Notes) to be issued by Caixabank Consumo
7, FT (the Issuer):
-- Class A Notes at (P) AA (low) (sf)
-- Class B Notes at (P) A (low) (sf)
-- Class C Notes at (P) BBB (sf)
-- Class D Notes at (P) BB (high) (sf)
-- Class R Notes at (P) A (high) (sf)
Morningstar DBRS does not rate the Class E Notes (collectively with
the Rated Notes, the Notes) also expected to be issued in the
transaction.
The credit rating of the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment
of scheduled interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by
the final maturity date. The credit ratings of the Class B, Class C
and Class D Notes address the ultimate payment of interest (timely
when most senior) and the ultimate repayment of principal by the
final maturity date. The credit rating of the Class R Notes
addresses the ultimate payment of interest and the ultimate
repayment of principal by the legal final maturity date.
The transaction is a securitization of a portfolio of fixed-rate,
unsecured, amortizing personal loans granted without a specific
purpose to private individuals domiciled in Spain by Caixabank S.A.
(Caixabank). Caixabank is also the initial servicer of the
transaction, which has no exposure to balloon payments or residual
value.
CREDIT RATING RATIONALE
Morningstar DBRS based its credit ratings on the following
analytical considerations:
-- The transaction's structure, including the form and sufficiency
of available credit enhancement to withstand stressed cash flow
assumptions and repay the Issuer's financial obligations according
to the terms under which the Rated Notes are issued
-- The credit quality of the collateral, historical, and projected
performance of Caixabank's portfolio, and Morningstar DBRS'
projected performance under various stress scenarios
-- An operational risk review of Caixabank's capabilities
regarding its originations, underwriting, servicing, and financial
strength
-- The transaction parties' financial strength regarding their
respective roles
-- The expected consistency of the transaction's structure with
Morningstar DBRS' "Legal and Derivative Criteria for European
Structured Finance Transactions" methodology
-- Morningstar DBRS' long-term sovereign credit rating on the
Kingdom of Spain, currently A (high) with a Stable trend
TRANSACTION STRUCTURE
The transaction includes a 13-month scheduled revolving period.
During the revolving period, the originator may offer additional
receivables that the Issuer will purchase, provided that the
eligibility criteria and concentration limits set out in the
transaction documents are satisfied. The revolving period may end
earlier than scheduled if certain events occur, such as the
insolvency of the originator or servicer, or the breach of
performance triggers.
The transaction allocates payments based on a combined interest and
principal priority of payments. The transaction also benefits from
an amortizing cash reserve equal to 1% of the Notes' outstanding
balance (excluding the Class R Notes), subject to a floor of EUR []
until the full redemption of the Notes (excluding the Class R
Notes). The cash reserve is part of the interest funds available to
cover shortfalls in senior expenses, servicing fees, senior swap
payments, interest on the Class A, Class B, Class C and Class D
Notes and, if not deferred, interest on the Class E Notes.
Unless an early termination event occurs, the repayment of the
Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D and Class E Notes will commence
after the end of the scheduled revolving period on a pro rata basis
until the occurrence of a sequential redemption event such as the
principal deficiency amount being higher than 0.1% of the
outstanding balance of the receivables at closing or an Issuer
event of default after which the repayment will switch to a
non-reversible sequential basis. In comparison, the lowest-ranked
Class R Notes will begin amortizing immediately after transaction
closing, subject to available funds, and expected to be fully
repaid during the scheduled revolving period.
COUNTERPARTY
Caixabank is the account bank for the transaction. Based on
Morningstar DBRS' Long-Term Issuer Rating of A (high) on Caixabank,
the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and
other mitigating factors in the transaction structure, Morningstar
DBRS considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account
bank to be consistent with the credit ratings assigned.
Caixabank is also the swap counterparty for the transaction.
Morningstar DBRS' Long-Term Issuer Rating of A (high) on Caixabank
meets Morningstar DBRS' criteria with respect to this role. The
transaction documents contain downgrade provisions consistent with
Morningstar DBRS' criteria.
PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS
Morningstar DBRS notes the gross default levels slightly
deteriorated compared to the previous transaction, Caixabank
Consumo 6, driven by differences in the compilation of default
rates with additional filters applied to the transaction. After
considering the quality and trend of the data, Morningstar DBRS
revised the expected default to 5.0% from 4.7% applied in the
Caixabank Consumo 6 transaction.
In comparison, Morningstar DBRS notes the recovery rates have
remained relatively stable, with the most recent vintages showing
slightly improved performance compared to earlier vintages, and
therefore revised the portfolio expected recovery to 10.4% from
9.8% applied in Caixabank Consumo 6 transaction.
FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS
Morningstar DBRS' credit ratings on the Rated Notes address the
credit risk associated with the identified financial obligations in
accordance with the relevant transaction documents. The associated
financial obligations for each class of the Rated Notes are the
related interest due amounts and the initial principal balance.
Notes: All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.
GRIFOLS, S.A.: Fitch Affirms 'B+' LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Pos.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised Grifols, S.A.'s Outlook to Positive from
Stable, while affirming its Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR)
at 'B+'. Fitch has also upgraded the senior secured rating of the
notes and debt issued by Grifols, S.A., Grifols Worldwide
Operations Limited and Grifols Worldwide Operations USA, Inc, to
'BB', from 'BB-', with a Recovery Rating of 'RR2' (previously
'RR3'), and affirmed Grifols, S.A.'s senior unsecured ratings at
'B-'/RR6.
The Positive Outlook reflects the strengthening underlying
performance of the business, which is benefiting from recovered
demand across key products, alongside improving collection yields.
This will lead to EBITDA-driven leverage reducing to its positive
leverage sensitivity of 5.0x by end-2026. This, combined with a
consistent financial policy, steady improvements to EBITDA and free
cash flow (FCF) margins, in line with Fitch's current projections,
could support an upgrade within the next 12 to 18 months.
Grifols' ratings reflect its assessment of a solid business risk
profile alongside improving corporate governance, although the
rating is constrained by its still high, albeit reducing, leverage
profile.
Key Rating Drivers
Resilient Organic Growth: Fitch projects that Grifols' operating
performance will continue its positive momentum in 2025, with
organic revenue offsetting the unfavourable impact of FX and the
Inflation Reduction Act Part D redesign. Fitch forecasts EBITDA
margin expansion to 22% in 2025, extending its recovery from its
low of 15.9% in 2022.
Fitch estimates the organic growth trajectory to continue to 2028,
although with negative FX effects in 1H26. This will be driven by
strong demand and increased penetration of key products. The growth
should also lead to gradual EBITDA margin improvement towards 24.6%
by 2028, driven by improved operating leverage and operating
efficiencies. Fitch considers the company to be well positioned to
manage the effect of US tariffs and global trade uncertainty due to
its US plasma collection and manufacturing footprint.
Leverage to Reduce: Fitch forecasts that Grifols' EBITDA leverage
will fall to 5.4x at end-2025, driven by EBITDA growth, from 6.2x
at end-2024. EBITDA expansion should lead to further deleveraging
to within its positive sensitivity of 5.0x EBITDA leverage in 2026.
This is despite its conservative assumption that the company's
Haema and BPC acquisitions will be partly debt-funded in 2026,
reflecting the organic deleveraging capacity of the company that
drives its Positive Outlook.
Expanding FCF: Fitch projects FCF margins to remain positive in the
low single-digits in 2025, driven by higher EBITDA, which absorbs
extraordinary capex increase, high interest expense, and the
reintroduction of dividends. Fitch anticipates FCF to steadily
increase as capex normalises from 2026, alongside a consistent
dividend distribution, which is strictly aligned with Grifols'
stated financial policies.
Manageable Refinancing Risk: Grifols faces maturities of about
EUR2.9 billion of senior notes and loans in November 2027, in
addition to an undrawn revolving credit facility (RCF) maturing in
May 2027. Fitch considers this risk is manageable, supported by an
improving operating profile with robust cash flow generation.
Leading Company in Attractive Niche: Grifols is a major provider in
the plasma-derivatives market, which Fitch expects to expand in the
high single-digits. The plasma-derivatives industry is more exposed
to cost and price pressure than innovative pharmaceuticals, with
manufacturing being a competitive differentiator as plasma-derived
proteins cannot be patented. Grifols balances its product
concentration with its competitive market position supported by its
vertical integration and diversified plasma-sourcing footprint.
This provides resilience to geopolitical risks, pricing pressures
and macroeconomic volatility.
Moderate Governance and Complexity Risks: Grifols has taken steps
to strengthen corporate governance, as the family has stepped down
from managerial roles, while also increasing transparency in its
reporting. Nevertheless, the company's concentrated ownership and
its complex structure still weigh on its assessment of governance,
with legacy complex business deals with entities related to the
family, reducing transparency. Fitch expects the company to address
these and Fitch expects governance to continue improving to a level
consistent with a higher rating.
Peer Analysis
Fitch rates Grifols using the framework of its generic Ratings
Navigator. The company stands out among non-investment grade
issuers with the strong global market position it has in its core
products, as well as its large size and sound underlying FCF
generation. This is counterbalanced by a heavy reliance on the
performance on four main plasma-derived medicinal products that
account for well over 50% of its sales. Financial risk is its main
rating constraint, with EBITDA leverage projected to remain at or
above 5.0x until 2026.
Fitch compares Grifols with pharmaceutical peers, such as
Grunenthal Pharma GmbH & Co. Kommanditgesellschaft (BB/Stable),
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (BB+/Stable), and
CHEPLAPHARM Arzneimittel GmbH (B/Stable). Grifols is larger than
Grunenthal and Cheplapharm, with size constraining Grunenthal's
ratings. However, both peers have higher margins than Grifols and
lower EBITDA leverage, which underpins Grunenthal's two-notch
higher rating despite its smaller scale.
Other life science peers, such as Avantor, Inc. (BB+/Stable), are
similar in scale to Grifols but with much lower leverage and higher
cash flows, which is reflected in its higher rating.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions within Its Rating Case for the Issuer:
- Mid single-digit organic revenue growth over 2025-2028, supported
by stable demand and new product launches
- Fitch-defined EBITDA margin gradually improving towards 24% by
2028 from 22% in 2025
- Working capital outflow of EUR150 million in 2025, followed by
annual outflows of about EUR175 million-EUR220 million during
2026-2028
- Capex close to EUR500 million in 2025, including investments in
Immunotek's plasma collection centres; capex to remain at 6% of
revenues during 2026-2028
- Acquisitions of EUR110 million in 2025, including the purchase of
the increased stake in Biotest. In 2026, Fitch expects the EUR550
million acquisition of Haema and BPC stakes. Annual acquisitions of
EUR100 million in 2027 and 2028
- Cash dividend of EUR102 million in 2025, gradually increasing
towards EUR320 million by 2028
Recovery Analysis
KEY RECOVERY RATING ASSUMPTIONS
The recovery analysis assumes that Grifols would be reorganised as
a going concern in bankruptcy rather than liquidated.
Fitch estimates a going-concern EBITDA of EUR1.1 billion
(previously EUR900 million), to which Fitch applies an enterprise
valuation multiple of 6.0x to calculate a post-reorganisation
enterprise valuation. Fitch assumes a 10% administrative claim
deduction.
Fitch does not assume Grifols' factoring liabilities to be repaid
given its assumption of reorganisation after financial distress.
Fitch also assumes that its revolving credit facility would be
fully drawn at the time of distress.
Based on its principal waterfall analysis, Fitch treats EUR835
million of debt, consisting of EUR675 million of debt held by the
sovereign wealth fund of Singapore and a portion of other current
debt, as super senior ahead of senior secured debt. Recoveries for
the senior secured debt, calculated after assigning the enterprise
value available to structurally senior-ranking debt holders, result
in a Recovery Rating 'RR2', leading to a 'BB' rating for the senior
secured debt, two notches above the IDR. Recoveries for the senior
unsecured notes are in the 'RR6' band, leading to a 'B-' instrument
rating, two notches below the IDR.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Total debt/EBITDA above 7.0x on a sustained basis
- Delays in new product launches or weakened cost management
leading to inability to maintain EBITDA margins (Fitch-defined,
excluding IFRS 16) to above 20%
- FCF margin below 1% on a sustained basis
- EBITDA/interest paid below 2.5x for an extended period
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Supportive financial policy and improving corporate governance
that lead to total debt/EBITDA below 5.0x on a sustained basis
- Cash from operations less capex/total debt with equity credit
consistently above 5%
- Continued operational improvement, as reflected in better Biotest
performance, continued reduction in collection cost per litre,
leading to EBITDA margins (Fitch-defined, excluding IFRS 16) above
24% on a sustained basis
- FCF margin rising towards mid-single digits
- EBITDA/interest paid persistently above 3.5x
Liquidity and Debt Structure
As of September 2025, Grifols had EUR520 million of cash Fitch
deems as available for debt repayment (EUR100 million is
restricted). The company has full availability under its USD1
billion revolver, which further strengthens its short-term
liquidity.
It has about EUR2.9 billion maturing in November 2027 on senior
secured notes and its two term loans B, and EUR2 billion in October
2028 from its senior unsecured issuance. Fitch expects Grifols will
refinance this issuance well ahead of maturity.
Issuer Profile
Grifols is a vertically integrated global manufacturer of plasma
derivatives, which treat diseases using components or proteins
derived from human plasma. The company sources most human plasma
from its own collection centres.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
Grifols has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance Structure
due to its concentrated ownership and continued significant family
involvement in the strategic decision making through the board of
directors, alongside legacy complex business transactions with
entities related to the family. This has a negative impact on the
credit profile and is highly relevant to the rating in conjunction
with other factors.
The company has an ESG Relevance score of '4' for Group Structure
due to the complex group structure with material related-party
transactions with entities where the family is a participant, and
which has resulted in cash outflows. This has a negative impact on
the credit profile and is relevant to the rating in conjunction
with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Grifols, S.A. LT IDR B+ Affirmed B+
senior unsecured LT B- Affirmed RR6 B-
senior secured LT BB Upgrade RR2 BB-
Grifols Worldwide
Operations USA, Inc
senior secured LT BB Upgrade RR2 BB-
Grifols Worldwide
Operations Limited
senior secured LT BB Upgrade RR2 BB-
SANTANDER RESIDENTIAL 1: DBRS Gives Prov. CCC Rating to E Notes
---------------------------------------------------------------
DBRS Ratings GmbH assigned provisional credit ratings to the
residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) Notes to be issued by
SANTANDER RESIDENTIAL 1, FONDO DE TITULIZACIÓN (SANTANDER
RESIDENTIAL 1, FT or the Issuer) as follows:
-- Class A Notes at (P) AAA (sf)
-- Class B Notes at (P) AA (low) (sf)
-- Class C Notes at (P) A (low) (sf)
-- Class D Notes at (P) BB (high) (sf)
-- Class E Notes at (P) CCC (sf)
The credit rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment
of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal before the
legal final maturity date. The credit rating assigned to the Class
B Notes addresses the timely payment of interest once they are the
most senior Class of Notes and the ultimate repayment of principal
on or before the final maturity date. The credit ratings on Class
C, D, and E Notes address the full payment of interest and
repayment of principal before the legal final maturity date.
CREDIT RATING RATIONALE
The Issuer, a special-purpose vehicle expected to be established as
a Fondo de Titulización governed by Spanish regulations, will use
the proceeds of the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, and Class E
Notes (the Rated Notes; together with the Class Z Notes, the Notes)
to purchase a portfolio of residential mortgage loans from Banco
Santander, SA (Banco Santander; rated A (high) with a Stable trend
by Morningstar DBRS); Banco Santander will service the underlying
mortgage loans in this transaction.
At closing, the Class A Notes will benefit from the subordination
of the Class B, C, D, E and Z Notes (17.5% of the Notes), plus the
reserve fund (1.0% of Class A, B, C, D and E Notes), which is split
in a Liquidity Reserve and a General Reserve. The Liquidity
Reserve, fully funded at closing and representing 1.0% of Class A
and B Notes initial balance, will be available to cover senior
expenses as well as interest payments on Class A and B Notes until
they are paid in full. The General Reserve, fully funded at closing
and representing the difference between 1.0% of the Rated Notes,
and the Liquidity Reserve outstanding amount, will provide credit
support to the Rated Notes. The Class B Notes will benefit from the
subordination of Class C, D, E, and Z Notes (15.0% of the Notes);
the Liquidity Reserve; and the General Reserve. Class C Notes will
benefit from the subordination of Class D, E, and Z Notes (10.5% of
the Notes) and the General Reserve. The Class D Notes will benefit
from the subordination of Class E and Z Notes (8.5% of the Notes)
and the General Reserve. Class E Notes will benefit from the
subordination of Class Z Notes (5.0% of the Notes) and the General
Reserve. The repayment of the Notes will be on a sequential basis
(from Class A to Class Z) with the Class A Notes being the most
senior Class of Notes at closing, and Class Z Notes being the most
junior Class of Notes.
The Rated Notes will pay a floating coupon rate of three-month
Euribor plus a margin which will then be increased after the
Step-up date happening in October 2028. The Notes will pay interest
on a quarterly basis. After the Step-up date, all the excess
revenue available after the payment of Class Z principal deficiency
ledger will be used first to redeem the RC1 Notes and then the
outstanding balance of the Class A to Z Notes (Turbo
Amortization).
Morningstar DBRS was provided with a provisional portfolio equal to
EUR 847.8 million as of 9 September 2025 (the cut-off date), which
consisted of 8,977 loans. As of the cut-off date, the
weighted-average (WA) current loan-to-value ratio (LTV) stood at
70.6%. The mortgage loan portfolio is distributed among the Spanish
regions of Andalucia (21.8% by current balance), Catalonia (15.0%),
and Madrid (14.9%). The mortgage loans in the asset portfolio are
almost all owner occupied, with 5.1% classified as second homes.
All the loans in the pool are amortizing loans and 99.4% pay their
instalments on a monthly basis. As of the cut-off date, 15.9% of
the mortgage loans were no more than 30 days in arrears, the WA
coupon of the mortgages was 4.0%, and the WA spread was 1.3%. The
WA remaining term of the portfolio was 20.2 years, and the WA
seasoning was 13.3 years. Within the provisional portfolio, 8.6% of
the mortgage loans have been restructured in the last 4 years, and
1.1% are second- and subsequent-lien mortgage loans having their
first lien included in the portfolio. Additionally, the servicer
can grant limited loan modifications related to maturity
extensions, without the management company's consent.
Currently, 94.9% of the portfolio are full-term floating-rate loans
indexed to 12-month Euribor; the remaining 5.0% and 0.1% are
referenced to IRPH and other indexes respectively. On the liability
side, the Notes are floating rate and linked to three-month
Euribor, leaving the transaction exposed to basis and resetting
risk.
The transaction's account bank agreement and replacement trigger
require Banco Santander, acting as the treasury account bank, to
find (1) a replacement account bank or (2) an account bank
guarantor upon loss of an applicable "A" account bank credit
rating. Morningstar DBRS' Long-Term Critical Obligations Rating
(COR), Long-Term Senior Debt credit rating and Issuer Rating, and
Long-Term Deposits credit rating on Banco Santander are AA, A
(high), and A (low), respectively, as of the date of this press
release. The applicable account bank rating is the higher of one
notch below the COR, Long-Term Senior Debt credit rating, and
Long-Term Deposits credit rating on Banco Santander. Based on
Morningstar DBRS' current reference credit rating (one notch below
the COR) of AA (low) on Banco Santander, the downgrade provisions
outlined in the transaction documents, and other mitigating factors
inherent in the transaction structure, Morningstar DBRS considers
the risk arising from the exposure to the account bank to be
consistent with the credit rating assigned to the Class A, Class B,
Class C, Class D and Class E Notes, as described in Morningstar
DBRS' "Legal and Derivative Criteria for European Structured
Finance Transactions" methodology.
Morningstar DBRS based its credit rating primarily on the following
analytical considerations:
-- The transaction's capital structure, including the form and
sufficiency of available credit enhancement and liquidity
provisions.
-- Estimated stress-level probability of default (PD), loss given
default (LGD), and expected loss levels on the mortgage portfolio,
which were used as inputs into the cash flow engine. The mortgage
portfolio was analyzed in accordance with Morningstar DBRS'
"European RMBS Insight Methodology".
-- The structural mitigants in place to avoid potential payment
disruptions caused by operational risk, such as the existence of an
experienced and highly rated servicer and the liquidity provided by
the Liquidity Reserve and the General Reserve.
-- The transaction parties' financial strength to fulfil their
respective roles.
-- The transaction's ability to withstand stressed cash flow
assumptions and repay investors in accordance with the terms and
conditions of the Notes.
-- The consistency of the transaction's legal structure with
Morningstar DBRS' "Legal and Derivative Criteria for European
Structured Finance Transactions" methodology and the expectation of
legal opinions addressing the assignment of the assets to the
Issuer.
Notes: All figures are in euros unless otherwise noted.
=====================
S W I T Z E R L A N D
=====================
PEACH PROPERTY: Fitch Hikes Long-Term IDR to 'B', Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Peach Property Group AG's Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'B', from 'CCC+', and senior
unsecured rating to 'BB-' from 'B'. Fitch has removed the IDR from
Rating Watch Positive and assigned a Stable Outlook. The Recovery
Rating remains at 'RR2'.
The upgrades reflect the successful prepayment of the remaining
EUR100 million of Peach's EUR300 million unsecured bond due
November 2025. Peach has progressively repaid the bond over the
past 11 months, using shareholder support, new debt secured against
portfolio assets, and end-2024's disposal proceeds.
The ratings reflect remaining execution risk on capex to improve
the company's residential-for-rent portfolio and reduce vacancies,
and medium-term challenges in refinancing its Castlelake secured
loan.
Key Rating Drivers
Current Refinancing Challenges Solved: Peach's prepayment of the
remaining EUR100 million senior unsecured bond completes most of
its secured and unsecured refinancings in 2024 and 2025. An
unsecured CHF50 million convertible bond remains outstanding and is
due May 2026, with cash set aside for repayment. All other secured
debt has maturities beyond 2027.
Focus on Operating Improvements: Peach's new management can now
re-focus on operational improvements, having raised cash to improve
the company's EUR1.9 billion regulated residential-for-rent assets,
mainly in Germany. Peach acquired most of its portfolio during
2019-2021 through successive acquisitions but it did not dedicate
resources to address inherited vacancies. Peach had identified a
strategic portfolio accounting for 79% of assets by value as at
1H25, with the rest in a non-strategic portfolio. The strategic
assets are refocused on North Rhine-Westphalia, supporting targeted
capex and lower overhead costs.
Turnaround Drivers: The company's part-disposal of its portfolio in
4Q24 marked a turning point in refinancing difficulties. Equity
injections totalling EUR185 million during 2024-2025 demonstrated
ongoing shareholder support for new management, in charge since
March 2024, and its turnaround plan. Extending and refinancing 2025
secured debt, alongside the EUR410 million Castlelake secured
funding signed in August 2025, provided financial resources to
improve the underlying portfolio.
Robust Rental Fundamentals: Fitch expects Peach's like-for-like
rents to grow around 4% in 2025 through indexation and re-letting,
increasing the portfolio's rents closer to relevant market rents
that are about 10% higher. Peach's portfolio needs capex to address
vacancies, but the company has stated that about half of the
strategic portfolio's vacant 1H25 units can be re-let without major
investment, enabling rents to rise closer to market levels.
Capex Programme Stabilised: Peach plans to deploy annual
maintenance capex at about EUR40 million, in line with 2024,
supported by a dedicated EUR30 million capex credit line and by
asset disposal proceeds. This follows significantly reduced spend
in 2023 when liquidity was insufficient, and inherent vacancies
remained un-addressed. About 60% of total planned capex is value
accretive, focusing on tenant improvements and yielding up to a 10%
return on incremental capex. This should lift rental income and cut
vacancy costs of EUR7 million in 2024, the benefits of which should
be more visible from end-2H25. The remaining 40% capex is mainly
ESG-related.
Occupancy Improvement: Peach's operational performance is set to
improve, supported by the company's revamped capex programme and
portfolio refocusing following the part-disposal in 4Q24. Peach has
already concentrated its occupancy efforts on its strategic
portfolio, where 1H25 vacancy fell 1.2pp year on year to 4.9%.
Disposals Moderately Paced: Non-strategic assets were 21% of
end-1H25 value and remain a meaningful part of the business, with
vacancy at 11% (1H24: 13%). Fitch expects Peach to sell EUR406
million of non-strategic assets over time, prioritising sales at or
above book value, which were stable at end-1H25, rather than
generating liquidity at all costs. Vacancy improvement to 6.5% at
the portfolio level will primarily stem from capex rather than
selling higher-vacancy assets from the non-strategic portfolio.
Improving Leverage, Tightening Coverage: Fitch forecasts net
debt/EBITDA to improve towards 16x by 2027, supported by stable
rental growth and debt reduction from disposals. Peach's rating
remains constrained by tight EBITDA interest coverage of about 1.3x
during 2025-2027, with the average cost of debt forecast to peak at
4.6% in 2027, up from 3.1% in 2022, driven by legacy low-coupon
debt being replaced with higher-cost debt.
Peer Analysis
Peach's portfolio, totalling EUR1.9 billion at end-2024, is
materially smaller than German residential-for-rent Vonovia SE's
(BBB+/Stable) EUR78.3 billion and Heimstaden Bostad AB's
(BBB-/Stable) EUR29 billion. Peach's portfolio is more comparable
to D.V.I. Deutsche Vermogens- und Immobilienverwaltungs GmbH's
(DVI, BBB-/Stable), which is solely in Germany and valued at EUR2.3
billion (excluding commercial buildings) at end-2024.
Peach's portfolio average in-place rent was EUR6.4 per sqm a month
at end-2024, indicating lower-quality assets and locations than
Vonovia's German portfolio, which averages EUR8 per sqm in rent,
and DVI's Berlin-weighted portfolio rent of EUR8.9 per sqm. The
difference in the portfolios' qualities is also reflected in their
respective vacancy rates: Peach's at a reported 7.4%, DVI's at
above 1.6% and Vonovia's 1.5% at end-2024.
Peach's interest cover of 1.3x at end-2024 is lower than Heimstaden
Bostad's 1.4x, which is due to improve thereafter. Fitch forecasts
interest cover for both DVI and Vonovia to remain at or above 2.3x
over the next three years. Peach's end-2024 remaining average debt
maturity was low at 2.9 years, compared with Vonovia's 6.9 years,
and at or over eight years for Heimstaden Bostad and DVI.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within Its Rating Case for the Issuer
- Rent loss from the 5,200 units disposal in 2024 translating into
a EUR23 million reduction in rental income that will be fully
reflected in 2025
- Capex at EUR40 million a year during 2025-2029 (2024: EUR36
million), partly funded by equivalent disposals from the
non-strategic portfolio
- Annual rental growth of about 4%, comprising 1.5% for phased
indexation/re-lettings and 2.5% for re-letting of refurbished
units
- Other operating costs to normalise at EUR10 million a year until
2028, after EUR14 million in 2024, which was inflated by one-offs
related to the portfolio disposal and costs from changes in
management
- Interest costs on newly issued euro-denominated variable-rate
debt based on Fitch's Global Economic Outlook policy rate
assumptions (2025 and thereafter: 2%)
- Hybrid bond interest not deferred and paid at a 9.25% margin plus
policy rate
- Completion of Peach's Swiss residential-for-sale development in
2026, resulting in a working capital inflow of EUR30 million
Recovery Analysis
Its recovery analysis assumes that Peach would be liquidated rather
than restructured as a going concern in a default.
Recoveries are based on the company's EUR344 million unencumbered
investment property portfolio, using an end-2024 independent
valuation, and updated for the EUR120 million secured facility
announced on 16 June (which raised EUR90 million new cash
proceeds).
Fitch applies a standard 20% discount to the EUR190 million
portfolio it estimates remains unencumbered after the June
transaction and prepayment of the November 2025 bond. After
deducting a standard 10% for administrative claims, this generates
an estimated liquidation value of EUR137 million compared with
unsecured debt of EUR51 million. Management has also identified
cash raised for the convertible's maturity in May 2026. Fitch's
principal waterfall analysis generates a high ranked recovery but
under Fitch's Recovery Rating Criteria the unsecured debt's
Recovery Rating is capped at 'RR2'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Net debt/EBITDA above 23x
- Interest coverage below 1.2x
- Lack of improvement in occupancy and rental levels, despite
capex
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Net debt/EBITDA below 20x
- Interest coverage above 1.3x
- Deployed capex increasing rents and reducing voids to around 5%
- A larger pool of unencumbered investment property assets
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Peach raised net liquidity of EUR90 million from a new secured
facility signed in June 2025, EUR50 million from the July 2025
equity increase and EUR100 million from a secured facility provided
by Castlelake in August 2025. This follows 1H25's repayments of the
EUR55 million March 2025 promissory notes and an initial EUR127
million of the November 2025 unsecured bond.
The company used some of its EUR250 million total liquidity to
reduce the remaining unsecured bond to EUR100 million in September
2025 and to repay this in November 2025. Within the remaining
funds, EUR51 million is earmarked for the repayment of the May 2026
convertible bond. Fitch expects Peach to lengthen the maturity
profile of its secured bank debt , as indicated by the September
2025 EUR202 million seven-year refinancing, which has helped
address nearly all of Peach's funding needs until 2027. Fitch
expects around EUR95 million of liquidity at end-2025.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Peach Property Group AG LT IDR B Upgrade CCC+
senior unsecured LT BB- Upgrade RR2 B
===========
T U R K E Y
===========
ARCELIK A.S: Fitch Lowers Long-Term IDR to 'B+', Outlook Negative
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Arcelik A.S.'s Long-Term (LT) Foreign-
and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) to 'B+', from
'BB-'. The Outlooks are Negative. The company's senior unsecured
notes have been downgraded to 'B', from 'BB-'. The Recovery Rating
has been revised to 'RR5', from RR4'.
The downgrade reflects persistently weak trading conditions, with
softer demand - particularly in international markets - driving a
downward revision of its assumptions for Arcelik. This has resulted
in margin compression, higher external funding needs and weaker
credit metrics. Fitch now expects EBITDA gross leverage of about
7.2x at end-2025 (versus previous projection of 5.2x), before
declining to just under 6.0x at end-2026 and approaching 5.5x - its
updated negative rating sensitivity - by end-2027.
The Negative Outlook reflects uncertainty about demand recovery and
margin improvement, with further downgrades likely on
underperformance.
Key Rating Drivers
Deleveraging Delayed: Fitch expects EBITDA leverage to be about
7.2x at end-2025, improving to about 5.8x at end-2026, which is
still higher than its previous forecast. This reflects lower
demand, slower margin recovery, and higher debt, compared with its
earlier projections. Fitch forecasts EBITDA leverage will fall
within the new sensitivities from end-2027. Further delays in
deleveraging could lead to another downgrade.
EBITDA Margin Recovering Slowly: Fitch forecasts that the EBITDA
margin will improve to 4.9% in 2025 (3.1% in 2024), supported by
higher gross margins and the early benefits of cost savings. The
benefits to the gross margin from lower raw material costs and a
favourable euro/US dollar exchange rate are partly offset by
pricing pressure and intensified competition from Chinese brands,
particularly in Europe and Asia. Fitch also notes that the adoption
of inflation-adjusted accounting continues to weigh on reported
margins.
Restructuring Efforts Underway: The company has completed about 90%
of planned job redundancies, with the rest to be finalised by
end-2026. The programme is expected to deliver about EUR140 million
in savings through optimisation of about 2,000 office roles across
global operations. Production was terminated at three factories in
Poland in 2Q25 and one is to close in Italy in 4Q25, with operating
lines transferred to Türkiye to support new product lines in
Europe. Operational reconfiguring and sizing initiatives in Italy
will continue in 2026.
Interest Cover Remains Weak: Fitch expects Arcelik's EBITDA
interest cover to remain low in 2025, as increased borrowings and
high local rates keep interest expense high while EBITDA generation
remains weak. As of end-3Q25, the company had substantial
short-term debt of about TRY144 billion, with about 30% in local
currency at an effective annual interest rate of 33%. It plans to
refinance its 2026 Eurobond with bank loans to secure lower rates.
Strong International Market Position: Arcelik is the clear leader
in Türkiye, with more than half the market since the 2000s, which
has been very cash generative, enabling expansion in European and
Asian markets. The company is the market leader in Europe, with the
Whirlpool partnership; with the acquired Beko brand being one of
the fastest-expanding white goods brands in the European market. It
also has market-leading positions in Romania, South Africa,
Pakistan and Bangladesh.
More Prior-Ranking Debt: As of end-9M25, senior secured debt at the
operating companies rose markedly and represented about 55% of
Arcelik's debt. The secured facilities are guaranteed by the
company and are senior to debt at the holding company (holdco). The
remaining 45%, including bonds, is issued by Arcelik. The one-notch
downgrade of the notes' rating from the IDR reflects this
additional subordination.
Financial Services Adjustments: Arcelik's reported leverage is
affected by higher-than-average working capital needs, as a large
portion of durable goods are sold on credit in Türkiye. This is
partly financed by Arcelik, and the dealer credit risk is covered
by banks' letters of credit, mortgages, direct debit system and
Arcelik stocks. Fitch assumes about 60 days of domestic receivables
are from selling goods on credit in Türkiye and adjusts debt down
accordingly, to reflect a more accurate peer comparison. Based on
its Financial Services Criteria, Fitch applies a 1x debt-to-equity
ratio to these receivables as a financial adjustment to debt.
Peer Analysis
Arcelik's business profile benefits from geographical
diversification and favourable cost base and is in line with that
of higher rated diversified industrial peers, given its leading
position in Europe's and Türkiye's white goods sector, as well as
its solid production base across low-cost countries. Its diverse
production base is better than those of Vestel Elektronik Sanayi Ve
Ticaret A.S. (B-/Negative) and Artel Electronics LLC (B/Negative),
which only manufacture on a single low-cost site.
Fitch expects Arcelik to maintain high market shares, domestically
and in Europe, despite the effect of competition from Chinese
manufacturers on the low-to-mid subsector of white goods. Margins
are expected to slightly recover to about 4.9% in 2025, from 3.1%
in 2024. This is much lower than historical levels due to the
margin-dilutive Whirlpool partnership, a competitive pricing
environment, and lower demand. Fitch forecast an improvement in
EBITDA leverage to 7.2x by end-2025 from 10.4x in 2024, but it
remains worse than peers in the 'B' category, such as Artel.
Key Assumptions
- Double-digit revenue rise annually between 2025 and 2028,
supported by favourable foreign-currency effects on sales, a demand
pickup in Europe and expansion into new products
- EBITDA margins recovering each year during 2025-2028, driven by
synergies from the Whirlpool partnership, including personnel and
site optimisation, and demand recovery improving capacity use
- Continued refinancing of upcoming short-term maturities at lower
interest rates
- Financial services adjustment assumes 60 days' domestic
receivables
- Minimal dividend distribution while Arcelik focuses on achieving
synergies from the Whirlpool partnership
Recovery Analysis
- Fitch assumes that Arçelik would be reorganised as a going
concern in bankruptcy rather than liquidated.
- Fitch assumes a 10% administrative claim.
- Fitch assumes a going concern EBITDA of USD600 million (TRY24,900
million), which Fitch translates into Turkish lira using the 30
September 2025 exchange rate to reduce volatility. This reflects
post‑reorganisation performance in Türkiye's challenging market
environment with high inflation, which is leading to weaker demand
domestically and internationally.
- A multiple of 5.5x is applied to going concern EBITDA to derive
post‑reorganisation enterprise valuation, reflecting Arçelik's
strong market position in Türkiye and Europe, well‑known brand
portfolio and a diversified manufacturing base across multiple
low‑cost countries.
- The waterfall analysis is based on the company's end-3Q25 capital
structure, with about 45% of debt issued at the level of
subsidiaries (and secured) and, therefore, structurally senior to
the euro and US dollar denominated senior unsecured bonds and loans
issued by Arçelik.
- Fitch assumes factoring facilities are not available at default,
reducing distributable value by about TRY10,400 million (deducted
from enterprise valuation).
- The recovery computation indicates a Recovery Rating of 'RR5' for
the senior unsecured notes, supporting the 'B' debt rating at one
notch below the IDR.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Downgrade
- EBITDA gross leverage above 5.5x
- EBITDA margin remaining below 4%
- Sustained negative free cash flow
- EBITDA interest coverage below 2.0x on a sustained basis
Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- EBITDA gross leverage sustainably below 4.5x
- EBITDA margins consistently above 6%
- Sustained return to neutral free cash flow
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Arcelik's liquidity score remains below 1.0x, reflecting the use of
short-term debt to fund high working capital needs. The company
reported TRY71.4 billion of cash and cash equivalents at end-3Q25.
Liquidity risk is mitigated by its access to uncommitted facilities
in the local market from Turkish and international lenders.
Its liquidity score of below 1.0x is not adequate for the rating,
but is partly offset by self-liquidating customer receivables
financing. Arcelik also has a demonstrated record in international
debt capital markets, having issued a USD400 million bond in
September 2023 and a USD100 million bond in November 2023.
Issuer Profile
Arcelik, which is owned by Koc Group, but rated on standalone
basis, is the largest white goods and consumer electronics
manufacturer in Turkiye and Europe.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Sector Forecasts Monitor
data file which aggregates key data points used in its credit
analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Arcelik A.S. LT IDR B+ Downgrade BB-
LC LT IDR B+ Downgrade BB-
Natl LT A+(tur) Downgrade AAA(tur)
senior
unsecured LT B Downgrade RR5 BB-
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
ARGO BLOCKCHAIN: Plan Meetings Scheduled for December 2
-------------------------------------------------------
IN THE HIGH COURT OF JUSTICE
BUSINESS AND PROPERTY COURTS OF ENGLAND AND WALES
INSOLVENCY AND COMPANIES LIST (ChD)
IN THE MATTER OF ARGO BLOCKCHAIN PLC
and
IN THE MATTER OF THE COMPANIES ACT 2006
The High Court of Justice of England and Wales has directed that
meetings be convened of the Plan Participants of Argo Blockchain
PLC for the purposes of considering and, if thought fit, approving
(with or without modification) the restructuring plan proposed to
be made between the Plan Company and its Plan Participants.
A copy of the document in which the terms of the Restructuring Plan
is contained and a copy of the statement required to be furnished
pursuant to section 901D of the Companies Act 2006 are available on
the Plan Website at
https:deals.is.kroll.com/argo Further details of the Restructuring
Plan and instructions and guidance for
Plan Participants are set out in the Explanatory Statement which is
also available on the Plan Website. Plan Participants are
encouraged to read the Explanatory Statement carefully.
The Plan Meetings will take place by way of video conference on
December 2, 2025 commencing not before the times set out below:
Meeting # Time Agenda
1. 2:00 p.m. London (GMT) time Shareholders' meeting
2. 3:00 p.m. London (GMT) time Noteholders' meeting
3. 4:00 p.m. London (GMT) time Secured Lender's meeting
The Restructuring Plan will be subject to the subsequent approval
of the Court.
ATLAS FUNDING 2025-2: DBRS Finalizes BB Rating on Class E Notes
---------------------------------------------------------------
DBRS Ratings Limited finalized its provisional credit ratings to
the following classes of notes (the notes) to be issued by Atlas
Funding 2025-2 PLC (the Issuer):
-- Class A notes at AAA (sf)
-- Class B notes at AA (sf)
-- Class C notes at A (high) (sf)
-- Class D notes at BBB (high) (sf)
-- Class E notes at BB (sf)
-- Class X1 notes at BB (high) (sf)
-- Class X2 notes at BB (low) (sf)
The credit rating on the Class A notes addresses the timely payment
of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal on or before
the legal final maturity date in July 2067. The credit ratings on
the Class B Notes, Class C Notes, Class D Notes, and Class E Notes
address the timely payment of interest once they are the
senior-most class of notes outstanding and until then the ultimate
payment of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal on or
before the legal final maturity date. The credit rating on the
Class X1 Notes and the Class X2 Notes address the ultimate payment
of interest and principal on or before the legal final maturity
date.
CREDIT RATING RATIONALE
The transaction represents the issuance of residential
mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) backed by first-lien, buy-to-let
(BTL) mortgage loans granted by Lendco Limited (Lendco; the seller
or the originator) in the UK.
The Issuer is a bankruptcy-remote special-purpose vehicle (SPV)
incorporated in the UK. Lendco is a UK specialist property finance
lender, which has been offering loans to customers in England and
Wales since 2018. Lendco's BTL business targets professional
portfolio landlords, often real estate companies or SPVs, which
they acquire through the broker marketplace.
This is Lendco's sixth securitization with the inaugural
transaction, Atlas Funding 2021-1, closing in January 2021, then
followed by Atlas Funding 2022-1 in May 2022, Atlas Funding 2023-1
in May 2023, Atlas Funding 2024-1 in May 2024, and Atlas Funding
2025-1 in April 2025.
Liquidity in the transaction is provided by the combination of a
liquidity facility (LF) available from closing and a liquidity
reserve fund (LRF) that will be funded through excess spread. The
LF shall cover senior costs and expenses, senior swap payments, and
interest shortfalls on the Class A Notes only whereas the LRF shall
cover the same items plus interest shortfalls on the Class B Notes.
In addition, principal borrowing is also envisaged under the
transaction documentation and can be used to cover senior costs and
expenses as well as interest shortfalls on the senior-most class of
notes outstanding but subject to some conditions for the Class B to
Class E Notes.
Interest shortfalls on the Class B to Class E Notes, as long as
they are not the senior-most class of notes outstanding, shall be
deferred and not be recorded as an event of default until the final
maturity date or such earlier date on which the Notes are fully
redeemed.
The transaction also features two fixed-to-floating interest rate
swaps, given the presence of a large portion of fixed-rate loans
(with a compulsory reversion to floating in the future), while the
liabilities shall pay a coupon linked to Sonia.
Morningstar DBRS based its credit ratings on a review of the
following analytical considerations:
-- The transaction's capital structure, including the form and
sufficiency of available credit enhancement;
-- The credit quality of the mortgage portfolio and the ability of
the servicer to perform collection and resolution activities.
Morningstar DBRS estimated stress-level probability of default
(PD), loss given default (LGD), and expected losses (EL) on the
mortgage portfolio. Morningstar DBRS used the PD, LGD, and EL as
inputs into the cash flow engine. Morningstar DBRS analyzed the
mortgage portfolio in accordance with its "European RMBS Insight
Methodology";
-- The transaction's ability to withstand stressed cash flow
assumptions and repay the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, Class
E, Class X1, and Class X2 Notes according to the terms of the
transaction documents. Morningstar DBRS analyzed the transaction
structure using Intex DealMaker. Morningstar DBRS considered
additional sensitivity scenarios of 0% CPR;
-- The structural mitigants in place to avoid potential payment
disruptions caused by operational risk, such as a downgrade, and
replacement language in the transaction documents;
-- Morningstar DBRS' sovereign credit rating on the United Kingdom
of Great Britain and Northern Ireland of AA with a Stable trend as
of the date of this press release; and
-- The expected consistency of the transaction's legal structure
with Morningstar DBRS' "Legal and Derivative Criteria for European
Structured Finance Transactions" methodology and the presence of
legal opinions that are expected to address the assignment of the
assets to the Issuer.
Notes: All figures are in British pound sterling unless otherwise
noted.
CHETWOOD 2025-1: DBRS Gives Prov. BB(high) Rating to 2 Note Classes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
DBRS Ratings Limited assigned provisional credit ratings to the
residential mortgage-backed notes (collectively, the Rated Notes)
to be issued by Chetwood Funding 2025-1 PLC (the Issuer) as
follows:
-- Class A1 Notes at (P) AAA (sf)
-- Class A2 Notes at (P) AAA (sf)
-- Class B Notes at (P) AA (low) (sf)
-- Class C Notes at (P) A (low) (sf)
-- Class D Notes at (P) BBB (sf)
-- Class E Notes at (P) BB (high) (sf)
-- Class X Notes at (P) BB (high) (sf)
The credit rating on the Class A Notes addresses the timely payment
of interest and the ultimate repayment of principal. The credit
rating on the Class X Notes addresses the ultimate payment of
principal on or before the legal final maturity date. The credit
ratings on the remaining classes of Rated Notes address the timely
payment of interest once each becomes the most senior class of
notes outstanding and the ultimate repayment of principal.
Morningstar DBRS does not rate the Residual Certificates that are
also expected to be issued in this transaction.
CREDIT RATING RATIONALE
The issuance will comprise United Kingdom of Great Britain and
Northern Ireland (UK) residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS)
backed by first-lien, buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage loans originated by
LendInvest BTL Limited (LendInvest), Landbay Partners Limited
(Landbay) and Paratus AMC Limited (Paratus), under its trading name
of Foundation Home Loans (FHL). Chetwood Financial Limited
(Chetwood or the Seller) purchased the loans via forward flow
agreements with the originators and will sell them to the Issuer
before the closing date.
The originators are three specialized lenders active in the UK BTL
space. Paratus was founded in 1998 whereas the trading name of FHL
was introduced in 2015, Lendivest has been an active BTL platform
since 2013 and Landbay has been operating as an
institutional-funded BTL lender since 2019. None of three
originators is new to the RMBS market because mortgages originated
by the three lenders have all been already securitized in public
securitizations, including in Chetwood Funding 2024-1 plc, the
first RMBS sponsored by Chetwood in January 2024 but not rated by
Morningstar DBRS.
The mortgage portfolio as of 31 August 2025 consists of GBP 533,1
million of first-lien mortgage loans collateralized by BTL
properties in the UK. The pool has a seasoning of eleven months and
yields a current weighted-average (WA) coupon of 5.2% whereas the
WA reversionary margin over Bank of England Rate (BBR) is 4.32%.
Liquidity in the transaction is provided by an amortizing liquidity
reserve fund (LRF), which shall cover senior costs and expenses as
well as interest shortfalls for the Class A1 and Class A2 notes. In
addition, the LRF shall also be available to cover interest
shortfalls in the Class B notes as long as either they are the most
senior class of notes outstanding or that the debit balance in
their principal deficiency ledger (PDL) does not exceed 10% of the
initial principal amount of the Class B notes at closing. The LRF
will be fully funded at closing from the proceeds of the notes
issuance.
Additionally, a general reserve fund (GRF) will be available to
cover interest shortfalls and clear PDL debits of all
collateralized notes.
Principal borrowing is also in place under the transaction
documentation and can be used to cover senior costs and expenses,
including swap payments, as well as interest shortfalls of all
collateralized notes, subject to the relevant class being the most
senior class of notes outstanding.
The transaction will also feature a fixed-to-floating interest rate
swap, given the presence of fixed-rate loans (which will revert to
BBR trackers in the future), while the liabilities will pay a
coupon linked to Sonia. The swap counterparty to be appointed at
closing will be NatWest Markets PLC. Furthermore, U.S. Bank Europe
DAC, UK Branch will be appointed as the Issuer Account Bank while
Barclays Bank PLC and National Westminster Bank PLC will act as
Collection Account Banks.
Morningstar DBRS based its credit ratings on a review of the
following analytical considerations:
-- The transaction's capital structure, including the form and
sufficiency of available credit enhancement;
-- The credit quality of the mortgage portfolio and the ability of
the servicers to perform collection and resolution activities.
Morningstar DBRS estimated stress-level PD, loss given default
(LGD), and expected losses (EL) on the mortgage portfolio.
Morningstar DBRS used the PD, LGD, and EL as inputs into the cash
flow engine. Morningstar DBRS analyzed the mortgage portfolio in
accordance with its "European RMBS Insight Methodology";
-- The transaction's ability to withstand stressed cash flow
assumptions and repay the Class A, Class B, Class C, Class D, Class
E, Class F, and Class X Notes according to the terms of the
transaction documents. Morningstar DBRS analyzed the transaction
structure using Intex DealMaker. Morningstar DBRS considered
additional sensitivity scenarios of 0% CPR;
-- The sovereign rating of AA with a Stable trend on the UK as of
the date of this report; and
-- The expected consistency of the transaction's legal structure
with Morningstar DBRS' "Legal and Derivative Criteria for European
Structured Finance Transactions" methodology and the presence of
legal opinions that are expected to address the assignment of the
assets to the Issuer.
Notes: All figures are in Pound Sterling unless otherwise noted.
CHETWOOD 2025-1: Fitch Assigns 'BB-(EXP)sf' Rating to Class X Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Chetwood Funding 2025-1 PLC's notes
expected ratings.
The assignment of final ratings is contingent on the receipt of
information conforming to the documentation already reviewed.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Chetwood Funding 2025-1 PLC
Class A1 XS3216965973 LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class A2 XS3216966195 LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class B XS3216966278 LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class C XS3216966351 LT A+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class D XS3216966435 LT BBB+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class E XS3216966518 LT BB(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Class X XS3216966609 LT BB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Transaction Summary
Chetwood Funding 2025-1 PLC is a static pass-through securitisation
of buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage loans originated in England and Wales.
The loans in the pool were mainly originated between 2023 and 2025
by three lenders, Landbay Partners Ltd. (44.7%), LendInvest BTL
Ltd. (33.4%), and Paratus AMC Ltd. under the brand name Foundation
Home Loans (21.9%).
Chetwood Financial Limited, acting in the capacity of the seller,
is a UK retail savings bank that partners with originators to
provide senior warehouse finance and to acquire assets through
forward flow agreements or whole-loan portfolio purchases.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Prime BTL Underwriting: The securitised portfolio comprises loans
originated by three prime BTL lenders that operate in the same
market segment and follow broadly similar underwriting standards.
The originators have advanced significant BTL loans since 2018,
with performance broadly in line with peers'. Fitch has assigned a
transaction adjustment of 1.0x to foreclosure frequency (FF), in
line with other prime BTL lenders.
Low-Seasoned Assets: Over 90% of loans in the provisional mortgage
pool were originated in and after 2024. The pool has a weighted
average (WA) original loan-to-value and a WA current LTV of 76.9%,
leading to a WA sustainable LTV of 87.1%. The pool also has a
Fitch-calculated WA interest coverage ratio of 98.5%.
Fixed Hedging Schedule: The issuer will enter into a swap at
closing to mitigate the interest rate risk arising from the
fixed-rate mortgage loans prior to their reversion date. The swap
will be based on a defined schedule, assuming no defaults and a
3.5% constant prepayment rate, rather than on the balance of
fixed-rate loans in the pool. If loans default or if the constant
prepayment rate is higher than 3.5% the issuer will be over-hedged.
The excess hedging is beneficial to the issuer in a rising
interest-rate scenario and detrimental when interest rates are
falling.
Alternative High Prepayment Rates: At closing, all loans will pay a
fixed interest rate, before eventually reverting to a floating rate
and will be subject to early repayment charges. The point at which
these loans are scheduled to revert from a fixed rate to the
relevant follow-on rate will likely determine the timing of
prepayments. Fitch has therefore applied an alternative high
prepayment stress that tracks the fixed rate reversion profile of
the pool. The prepayment rate applied is floored at 5% during
periods of low reversion activity and capped at a maximum 40% a
year.
Payment Interruption Risk Constrains Ratings: A funded liquidity
reserve will sufficiently mitigate payment interruption risk for
the class A1, A2 and B notes during a period of payment
interruption, although no such mitigation is available for the
class C to X notes. The limited availability of the reserve fund or
any other source of liquidity for the class C notes constrains
their maximum achievable rating below their model-implied rating.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The transaction's performance may be affected by changes in market
conditions and the economic environment. Weakening economic
performance is strongly correlated to increasing levels of
delinquencies and defaults that could reduce the credit enhancement
available to the notes. In addition, unexpected declines in
recoveries could result in lower net proceeds, which may make
certain notes' ratings susceptible to negative rating action,
depending on the extent of the decline in recoveries.
Fitch found that a 15% WAFF increase and 15% WA recovery rate
decrease would result in downgrades of no more than one notch each
on the class B and C notes and two notches each for the class D and
X notes. Other notes' ratings would not be affected.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stable-to-improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies
and defaults would lead to increasing credit enhancement and,
potentially, upgrades. Fitch found that a decrease in the WAFF of
15% and an increase in the WA recovery rate of 15% would lead to
upgrades of up to two notches each for the class D and X notes. The
class A-B notes are already rated 'AAAsf' and the class C notes are
capped at 'A+sf' by payment interruption risk. The class E notes'
rating would not be affected.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch reviewed the results of a third-party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information, and concluded that there were no
findings that affected the rating analysis.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
CLEVERCHEFS: Exigen Group Appointed as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------
Cleverchefs Ltd wa placed into administration in the High Court of
Justice, Business & Property Courts in Manchester, Court Number
CR-2025-001496. David Kemp and Richard Hunt of Exigen Group Limited
were appointed as administrators on Nov. 10, 2025.
The company was an events caterer.
Its registered office is at Warehouse W, 3 Western Gateway, Royal
Victoria Docks, London, E16 1BD.
Its principal trading address is at 10 Ty Nant Court, Morganstown,
Cardiff CF15 8LW.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
David Kemp
Richard Hunt
Exigen Group Limited
Warehouse W, 3 Western Gateway
Royal Victoria Docks, London, E16 1BD
For further details, contact:
David Kemp
Tel No: 0207 538 2222
EUROSAIL-UK 2007-6: Fitch Affirms 'B-sf' Rating on Class C1a Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Eurosail-UK 2007-2 NP Plc's (ES07-2)
class D1a and D1c notes. Fitch has also revised the Outlook for
Eurosail-UK 2007-6 NC Plc's (ES07-6) class B1a notes to Positive
from Stable. All other notes have been affirmed. All notes have
been removed from Under Criteria Observation.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Eurosail-UK 2007-6 NC Plc
Class A3a 29881HAG0 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class B1a 29881HAK1 LT BBB-sf Affirmed BBB-sf
Class C1a 29881HAN5 LT B-sf Affirmed B-sf
Class D1a 29881HAR6 LT CCCsf Affirmed CCCsf
Eurosail-UK 2007-2 NP Plc
Class B1a 29881AAN0 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class B1c 29881AAQ3 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class C1a 29881AAR1 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class D1a 29881AAU4 LT BBB-sf Downgrade A+sf
Class D1c 29881AAW0 LT BBB-sf Downgrade A+sf
Class E1c XS0291443892 LT CCCsf Affirmed CCCsf
Class M1a 29881AAK6 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class M1c 29881AAM2 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Transaction Summary
The transactions comprise non-conforming UK mortgage loans
originated by Southern Pacific Mortgage Limited (formerly a wholly
owned subsidiary of Lehman Brothers) and Preferred Mortgages
Limited.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
UK RMBS Rating Criteria Updated: The rating actions reflect Fitch's
updated UK RMBS Rating Criteria (see "Fitch Ratings Updates UK RMBS
Rating Criteria" dated 23 May 2025). Key changes include updated
representative pool weighted average foreclosure frequencies
(WAFF), changes to sector selection, revised recovery rate (RR)
assumptions and changes to cash flow assumptions.
The most significant revision was to the non-conforming sector
representative 'Bsf' WAFF. Fitch has applied newly introduced
borrower-level recovery rate caps to underperforming seasoned
owner-occupied (OO) and buy-to-let (BTL) collateral. In its cash
flow analysis. Fitch now applies dynamic default distributions and
high prepayment rate assumptions rather than static assumptions
previously.
Transaction Adjustment: Fitch has applied its non-conforming
assumptions, alongside an owner-occupied (OO) transaction
adjustment (TA) of 1.0x and buy-to-let (BTL) TA of 1.5x to FF, for
both transactions. This is because the transactions' historical
performance of loans that were three months or more in arrears has
broadly been in line with Fitch's non-conforming index.
BTL Recovery Rate Cap: The transactions have reported losses that
exceed its expectations, based on the indexed values of the
properties in the pool. Fitch has therefore applied borrower-level
recovery rate (RR) caps to the BTL loans in the pools, in line with
those applied to the non-conforming loans, where the RR cap is 85%
at 'Bsf' and 65% at 'AAAsf'.
Downgrades Despite Stable Asset Performance: The proportion of
loans in arrears for one month or more for ES07-2 has decreased to
24.7% as of September 2025, from 25% at the previous review, while
for ES07-6 it has fallen to 35% from 37.6%. Additionally, both
transactions continue to generate robust excess spread, which can
be used to clear losses from the asset pools. Nevertheless, its
revised RR and default assumptions (which treat loans in arrears
for more than 12 months as defaulted) drive the downgrades of
ES07-2's class D1a and D1c notes.
Decreasing Senior Fees: Both transactions have seen high senior
fees in recent years due to the LIBOR transition of the notes and
replacement of transaction counterparties. However, these fees have
started to fall from their high levels. Should the fees continue to
fall, this could lead to rating upgrades in future reviews. This
underlines the Positive Outlook revision on ES07-6's class B1a
notes.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The transactions' performance may be affected by adverse changes in
market conditions and the economic environment. Weakening economic
performance is strongly correlated to increasing delinquencies and
defaults that could reduce credit enhancement available to the
notes.
In addition, unexpected declines in recoveries could result in
lower net proceeds, which may make certain notes susceptible to
negative rating action, depending on the extent of the decline in
recoveries.
Fitch found that a 15% increase in the WAFF and 15% decrease of the
weighted-average recovery rate (WARR) could lead to downgrades of
up to five notches for ES07-2's class D1a and D1c notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stable to improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies
and defaults would lead to increasing credit enhancement and,
potentially, upgrades.
Fitch found that a 15% decrease in the WAFF and a 15% increase in
the WARR would result in upgrades of up to four notches to ES07-2's
class D1a and D1c notes, and up to two notches to its class E1c
notes. Fitch also found that this would result in upgrades of up to
five notches to ES07-6's class B1a notes.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset
pools and the transactions. Fitch has not reviewed the results of
any third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Fitch did not undertake a review of the information provided about
the underlying asset pools ahead of the transactions' closing. The
subsequent performance of the transactions over the years is
consistent with the agency's expectations given the operating
environment and Fitch is therefore satisfied that the asset pool
information relied upon for its initial rating analysis was
adequately reliable.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
ES07-2 and ES07-6 have an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for human
rights, community relations, access & affordability due to a
significant proportion of the pool containing OO loans advanced
with limited affordability checks, which has a negative impact on
the credit profiles, and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction
with other factors.
ES07-2 and ES07-6 have an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for customer
welfare - fair messaging, privacy & data security due to the pool
exhibiting interest-only maturity concentration of legacy
non-conforming OO loans of greater than 20%, which has a negative
impact on the credit profiles, and is relevant to the ratings in
conjunction with other factors.
Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs
in the rating process; they are an observation of the materiality
and relevance of ESG factors in the rating decision.
LANSDOWNE CARE: Begbies Traynor Appointed as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------------
Lansdowne Care Services Limited was placed into administration in
the High Court of Justice, Business and Property Courts of England
and Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number
CR-2025-007618. Paul Cooper, Paul Appleton, and Stephen Katz of
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP were appointed as administrators on
Nov. 5, 2025.
The company operated healthcare – care homes.
Its registered office is at Lightsky Group, Bromley Road, First
Floor, Unit 1, Bristol, BS39 4DE.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Paul Cooper
Paul Appleton
Stephen Katz
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
31st Floor, 40 Bank Street
London, E14 5NR
For further information, contact:
Alex Nekaj
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
Email: DE-Team@btguk.com
Tel No: 020 7400 7900
PAVILLION CONSUMER 2025-1: DBRS Gives Prov. B(high) F Notes Rating
------------------------------------------------------------------
DBRS Ratings Limited assigned provisional credit ratings to the
following notes (the Rated Notes) to be issued by Pavillion
Consumer 2025-1 (the Issuer):
-- Class A Notes at (P) AAA (sf)
-- Class B Notes at (P) AA (sf)
-- Class C Notes at (P) A (sf)
-- Class D Notes at (P) BBB (high) (sf)
-- Class E Notes at (P) BB (high) (sf)
-- Class F Notes at (P) B (high) (sf)
-- Class X Notes at (P) A (high) (sf)
Morningstar DBRS did not rate the Class R or Class Z Notes
(together with the Rated Notes, the Notes) also expected to be
issued in this transaction.
The credit ratings of the Class A and Class B Notes address the
timely payment of scheduled interest and ultimate repayment of
principal by the legal final maturity date. The credit ratings of
the Class C, Class D, Class E, Class F, and Class X Notes address
the ultimate payment of scheduled interest when the class is
subordinate and the timely payment of scheduled interest when the
class is the most senior class as well as the ultimate repayment of
principal by the legal final maturity date.
CREDIT RATING RATIONALE
Morningstar DBRS' credit ratings on this transaction are based on
the following analytical considerations:
-- The transaction's capital structure, including the form and
sufficiency of available credit enhancement to withstand stressed
cash flow assumptions and repay the Issuer's financial obligations
according to the terms under which the Rated Notes are issued
-- The credit quality and the characteristics of the collateral,
its historical performance and Morningstar DBRS' projection under
various stress scenarios
-- The operational risk review of Barclays Bank UK PLC (Barclays
UK) regarding its capabilities with respect to originations,
underwriting, servicing, and financial strength
-- The transaction parties' financial strength regarding their
respective roles
-- The expected consistency of the transaction's legal structure
with Morningstar DBRS' "Legal and Derivative Criteria for European
Structured Finance Transactions" methodology
-- Morningstar DBRS' long-term sovereign credit rating of the
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (UK),
currently AA with a Stable trend
TRANSACTION STRUCTURE
The transaction includes a 12-month scheduled revolving period,
during which the Issuer can purchase additional loan receivables,
subject to the eligibility criteria and concentration limits set
out in the transaction documents. The revolving period may end
earlier than scheduled if certain events occur, such as the
insolvency or replacement of the servicer or the breach of
performance triggers, the most prevalent of which is the principal
deficiency ledger trigger.
The transaction allocates collections in separate interest and
principal priorities of payments and benefits from an amortizing
liquidity reserve equal to 1.5% of the Notes (excluding the Class X
and Class R Notes) outstanding principal balances, subject to a
floor of 0.5% of the Notes (excluding the Class X and Class R
Notes) initial principal balances. This reserve will initially be
funded with the (Class X) Notes issuance proceeds, can be used to
cover senior expenses, senior swap payments and non-deferred
interest payments on the Notes (excluding the Class X and Class R
Notes), and would be replenished in the interest waterfall.
Principal funds can also be re-allocated to cover the remaining
shortfall if the interest collections and the liquidity reserve
were not sufficient.
After the revolving period ends, the repayment of the Notes will be
sequential until the pro rata target level is reached, then pro
rata (excluding the Class X and Class R Notes) until a sequential
amortization event occurs. Upon the occurrence of a sequential
amortization event, the repayment of the Notes will switch to be
sequential and non-reversible. In comparison, the Class X Notes
will be repaid with all available funds in the interest priority of
payments immediately after the transaction closes.
Morningstar DBRS considers the interest rate risk for the
transaction to be limited as an interest rate swap is in place to
reduce the mismatch between the fixed-rate collateral and the
floating-rate Notes.
COUNTERPARTIES
Barclays UK is the account bank for the transaction. Based on
Morningstar DBRS' private credit rating on Barclays UK, the
downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction documents, and
other mitigating factors in the transaction structure, Morningstar
DBRS considers the risk arising from the exposure to the account
bank to be consistent with the credit ratings assigned.
Barclays Bank PLC is the initial hedge counterparty for the
transaction, which meets Morningstar DBRS' criteria to act in such
capacity. The transaction documents contain downgrade provisions
consistent with Morningstar DBRS' criteria.
PORTFOLIO ASSUMPTIONS
As Barclays UK has a long consumer lending history in the UK,
Morningstar DBRS considers the performance data to be meaningful
for vintage analysis and established a lifetime expected gross
default at 5.5% for this transaction. Morningstar DBRS set its
expected recovery rates at 20% or a loss given default (LGD) of 80%
based on benchmarking of similar UK consumer loan portfolios.
FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS
Morningstar DBRS' credit ratings on the Rated Notes address the
credit risk associated with the identified financial obligations in
accordance with the relevant transaction documents. For the
securities listed in the table above, the associated financial
obligations are the related interest payment amounts and the class
balances.
Notes: All figures are in British pound sterling unless otherwise
noted.
SOLUTIONS 30 UK: S&W Partners Appointed as Joint Administrators
---------------------------------------------------------------
Solutions 30 UK Limited, fka Comvergent Limited, was placed into
administration in the High Court of Justice, Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD),
Court Number CR-2025-007907. Nadeem Sweiss and Ben Woodthorpe of
S&W Partners LLP were appointed as joint administrators on Nov. 10,
2025.
The company operated in the wireless telecommunications industry.
Its registered office is at Viscount House, River Lane, Saltney,
Chester, CH4 8RH.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Nadeem Sweiss
Ben Woodthorpe
S&W Partners LLP
c/o RRS Department,
45 Gresham Street
London, EC2V 7BG
For further information, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel No: 020 4617 5500
Email: Ulysses.Urban@swgroup.com
Alternative contact: Ulysses Urban
VISIONS LIVE EVENTS: Oury Clark Appointed as Joint Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Visions Live Events Ltd (formerly Visions Group Operations Ltd) was
placed into administration in the High Court of Justice, Court
Number CR-2025-007870. Nick Parsk and Carrie James of Oury Clark
Chartered Accountants were appointed as joint administrators on
Nov. 7, 2025.
The company was a conference organizer.
Its registered office is at c/o Oury Clark Chartered Accountants,
Herschel House, 58 Herschel Street, Slough, Berkshire, SL1 1PG.
Its principal trading address is Unit 2 Maxx House, Western Road,
Bracknell, EG12 1QP.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Nick Parsk
Carrie James
Oury Clark Chartered Accountants
Herschel House, 58 Herschel Street
Slough, Berkshire, SL1 1PG
For further details, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel No: 01753 551 111
Email: IR@ouryclark.com
Alternative contact: Emma Admans
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
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Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.
Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754.
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