250703.mbx
T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Thursday, July 3, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 132
Headlines
A U S T R I A
AMS-OSRAM AG: Fitch Lowers LongTerm IDR to 'B', Outlook Stable
B E L G I U M
MANUCHAR GROUP: Moody's Cuts CFR to 'B3', Outlook Remains Stable
G E R M A N Y
HT TROPLAST: Moody's Affirms 'B2' CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
I R E L A N D
AQUEDUCT EUROPEAN 11: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating on F Notes
CVC CORDATUS XXXV: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating on Cl. F Notes
L U X E M B O U R G
ECARAT DE SA 2025-1: Moody's Assigns Ba2 Rating to EUR30MM F Notes
R U S S I A
UZBEKISTAN: Fitch Hikes Foreign Currency IDR to BB, Outlook Stable
S P A I N
AUTONORIA SPAIN 2025: Fitch Assigns 'BBsf' Final Rating on F Notes
S W I T Z E R L A N D
PEACH PROPERTY: Fitch Hikes Rating on Senior Unsecured Debt to 'B'
T U R K E Y
BALIKESIR METROPOLITAN: Fitch Assigns 'B+' IDRs, Outlook Stable
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
AMLO BIOSCIENCES: Grant Thornton Named as Administrators
BH KNIGHTSBRIDGE: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
FINSBURY SQUARE 2025-1: Fitch Assigns B+(EXP) Rating on Cl. F Debt
GUID3D LIMITED: CBW Recovery Named as Administrators
HERTFORD HOUSE: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
NCP CROWES: McTear Williams Named as Administrators
NORTHERN CIVILS: Leonard Curtis Named as Administrators
PROTOCOL NATIONAL: Grant Thornton Named as Administrators
SURF BRISTOL: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
- - - - -
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A U S T R I A
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AMS-OSRAM AG: Fitch Lowers LongTerm IDR to 'B', Outlook Stable
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded ams-OSRAM AG's Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) to 'B', from 'B+'. The Outlook on the IDR is
Stable. Fitch has also downgraded the company's senior unsecured
rating to 'B', from 'B+'. The Recovery Rating is 'RR4'.
The downgrade reflects ams-OSRAM's 2024 under-performance on
weaker-than-expected demand from key end-markets, which has
resulted in under-utilisation of capacity and weaker earnings.
Fitch expects ams-OSRAM's key credit ratios, such as gross leverage
and free cash flow (FCF) margin, to remain weak for the previous
rating.
The Stable Outlook reflects its belief that ams-OSRAM will offset
further weakness in revenues in 2025 through restructuring and cost
savings, allowing EBITDA margin to rebound and supporting neutral
FCF and deleveraging.
Key Rating Drivers
Weak Recovery in Some End-Markets: Fitch expects ams-OSRAM's
revenue for 2025 to be 3% lower than in 2024, due primarily to
reduced global demand in the automotive sector, a key end-market
for the group, in addition to sluggish demand in the industrial
applications market. Over the longer term, underlying demand
dynamics remain favourable, and Fitch expects mid-single digit
revenue rises annually from 2026.
Earnings Margins Rising Gradually: Fitch expects Fitch-calculated
EBITDA margins to improve slightly, supported by cost initiatives,
reaching about 13% for 2025, compared with 10.3% in 2024. Further
margin improvement will be driven by enhanced pricing strategies.
However, the pace of improvement is slower than Fitch previously
expected, reflecting continued economic weakness that has led to
underuse of capacity and lower profitability.
Potential Asset Sales: During 1Q25, management indicated that asset
sales are key to ams-Osram's strategic plan to accelerate
deleveraging and improve its financial position. The group aims to
generate proceeds exceeding EUR500 million from strategic asset
disposals to expedite deleveraging and meet future obligations,
such as the 2027 convertible bond. However, these sales are not
part of its rating case, as specific assets and timelines remain
uncertain.
Put Option Repayment in 2025: Fitch anticipates most of a EUR570
million put option repayment will occur in 2025, in line with the
group's guidance, although there is no timetable. Historically, put
option exercises have been settled with cash. Fitch expects the
repayment to be covered by ams-OSRAM's revolving credit facility
(RCF), which exceeds the outstanding liability and has a maturity
of September 2026.
Deleveraging Slower Than Expected: ams-OSRAM's Fitch-calculated
EBITDA leverage reached 7.5x at end-2024, significantly exceeding
its previous estimate of 5.5x, due to weaker-than-expected
operational performance. The near-term demand outlook remains weak,
although Fitch expects this to improve, with mid-single digit
revenue growth from 2026. The repayment of put options in 2025,
likely to be covered by the RCF, will increase debt. However, Fitch
expects EBITDA leverage to remain below the revised negative rating
sensitivity, at 5.9x at end-2025, supporting the Stable Outlook
after the downgrade.
Peer Analysis
ams-OSRAM's business profile is broadly in line with that of
diversified industrial peers rated in the 'BB' category, given the
group's leading share in global automotive and sensor solutions,
reasonable geographic concentration and strong, although more
volatile, profitability and cash flow generation. It compares
favourably with US technological 'BB' category peers in
profitability and cash flow margins but has higher leverage and
customer concentration.
The closest peer to ams-OSRAM in the diversified industrials sector
is BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (BB+/Stable), which also has a
high technology content in its end products. BE Semiconductor
Industries is less diversified but has far stronger profitability
and financial profile compared with ams-OSRAM. Other higher-rated
peers in the diversified industrials sector, such as KION GROUP AG
(BBB/Stable) and GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft (BBB+/Stable), are
larger and more diversified, but have lower EBITDA margins,
typically of 10%-12% (although ams-OSRAM recently underperformed).
Leverage at KION GROUP AG and GEA Group Aktiengesellschaft is
usually within 0.5x-1.5x, better than ams-OSRAM and a key rating
differentiator.
Microchip Technology Inc. (BBB/Stable) and NXP Semiconductors N.V.
(BBB+/Stable) have sharply higher EBITDA margins and FCF margins
than ams-OSRAM. Both companies, along with STMicroelectronics N.V.,
have stronger leverage profiles, at around 2x for NXP
Semiconductors and under 1x for STMicroelectronics.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within Its Rating Case for the Issuer
- Continued weakness in revenue throughout 2025, due primarily to
reduced global demand in the automotive sector, but a recovery to
low-to-mid single-digit growth starting in 2026
- Profitability to gradually recover, supported by enhanced pricing
strategies and cost-saving measures
- Capex at about 8% of revenue a year for 2025-2028
- No dividend payments through the rating horizon
- Repayment of 90% of the put options in 2025 and the rest in 2026
with RCF
- Successful extension of RCF maturity
Recovery Analysis
- The recovery analysis assumes that ams-OSRAM would be considered
a going concern (GC) in bankruptcy and that it would be reorganised
rather than liquidated.
- Fitch estimates its GC value available for creditor claims at
about EUR1.4 billion, assuming GC EBITDA of EUR330 million. GC
EBITDA incorporates a loss of a major customer, deterioration in
demand and a reduced order intake. The assumption also reflects
corrective measures taken in reorganisation to offset the adverse
conditions that trigger default.
- Fitch assumed a 10% administrative claim.
- Fitch applied 5x multiple to GC EBITDA to calculate a
post-reorganisation enterprise valuation. The multiple is based on
ams-OSRAM's good market position and geographical diversification,
long-term cooperation with customers and sound supplier
diversification. However, the multiple also reflects a rather
limited range of products.
- Fitch deducted about EUR100 million from the enterprise
valuation, due to ams-OSRAM's high use of non-recourse factoring
facilities at end-1Q25, adjusted for a discount, in line with
Fitch's criteria.
- Fitch estimated the amount of senior debt claims at EUR2.9
billion, comprising EUR1.2 billion of senior unsecured notes, the
EUR800 million RCF, EUR75 million of reverse factoring, around
EUR175 million of bank loans and EUR697 million of convertible
bonds.
- The allocation of value in the liability waterfall results in
recoveries corresponding to 'RR4' for unsecured debt.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Negative FCF margin throughout the cycle
- Gross debt/EBITDA consistently above 6.0x
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Neutral to positive FCF on a sustained basis
- Gross debt/EBITDA below 5.0x
- Improved diversification of the customer base
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-1Q25, ams-OSRAM had EUR573 million of reported cash
following the repayment of the convertible bond due 2025, funded
through cash balances. It also benefits from the due September 2026
RCF, which is being extended.
Issuer Profile
Austria-based ams-OSRAM designs and manufactures semiconductor
sensor and emitter components and high-performance sensors for
applications requiring the highest level of miniaturisation,
integration, accuracy and sensitivity, and less power.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
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ams-OSRAM AG LT IDR B Downgrade B+
senior unsecured LT B Downgrade RR4 B+
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B E L G I U M
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MANUCHAR GROUP: Moody's Cuts CFR to 'B3', Outlook Remains Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings downgraded Manuchar Group BV's (Manuchar or the
company) long-term corporate family rating and probability of
default rating to B3 and B3-PD from B2 and B2-PD, respectively.
Concurrently, Moody's assigned a B3 instrument rating to the
proposed EUR415 million backed senior secured floating rate notes
due 2032. The outlook remains stable.
The proceeds from the proposed EUR415 million backed senior secured
floating rate notes will be used to refinance the company's
existing EUR350 million senior secured notes, repay some drawings
under the super senior revolving credit facility (SSRCF), and to
pay for transaction-related fees and expenses. The proposed capital
structure includes also a new $85 million SSRCF, which is expected
to mature half a year earlier than the newly proposed notes.
Moody's expects to withdraw the B3 instrument rating of the
existing EUR350 million senior secured notes, which was unaffected
by this rating action, upon repayment. The ratings incorporate the
expectation that the company will execute its proposed refinancing
transaction.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The rating action reflects the weakness in credit metrics and
Moody's expectations that Moody's-adjusted EBITA interest coverage
will not improve to a level commensurate with the previous rating
over the next 12-18 months, especially given the increase in
long-term gross debt. Furthermore, pro-forma for the transaction,
Moody's considers Manuchar's liquidity somewhat weaker, although
still adequate, given the smaller size of the SSRCF. The amount of
the SSRCF is expected to be downsized to $85 million from
previously $150 million.
Manuchar's Moody's-adjusted EBITA interest coverage is weak at
about 1.2x (excluding movements for foreign exchange and cross
currency interest rate swap; or 1.5x including full year
contribution of Proquiel Químicos Ltda) for the last 12 months
ending March 2025 driven by soft EBITDA generation and relatively
high interest costs. Also, the contemplated transaction increases
Moody's adjusted pro-forma gross leverage to 6.3x from 6.1x
(excluding movements for foreign exchange and cross currency
interest rate swap; but including full year contribution of
Proquiel Químicos Ltda) for the last for the last 12 months ending
March 2025. On a non-pro-forma basis for the Proquiel Químicos
Ltda acquisition, gross leverage would be over 1x higher.
The downgrade also reflects the negative Moody's-adjusted free cash
flow (FCF) in 2024 and Q1-2025, as well as Moody's expectations
that Moody's-adjusted FCF will be modestly negative in 2025 before
turning slightly positive in 2026 —though still low relative to
the total debt amount. Overall, the company's cash flow performance
exhibited significant volatility since the rating assignment in
2022.
Although the downsizing of the SSRCF weighs negatively on the
liquidity, it also reduces the potential debt ranking ahead of the
senior secured floating rate notes. The combination of a smaller
amount of debt ranking senior to the bond and improved EBITDA
guarantor coverage supports the removal of the notching between the
proposed notes and the CFR.
More generally, Manuchar's B3 CFR reflects positively the company's
solid presence in emerging markets; long-standing relationships
with customers, including multinational corporations, and
suppliers; and the diverse end-market exposure, but to a lower
degree compared to other rated chemical distributors. The credit
profile also benefits from the positive growth fundamentals of the
third-party chemicals distribution markets, despite its current
challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties.
However, the company's credit profile remains constrained by its
weak credit metrics; long supply chains and some reliance on key
suppliers; a less diversified product portfolio compared to rated
peers; relatively small size compared to other rated distributors
(including non-chemical distributors); and relatively volatile
earnings and cash flow performance.
A comprehensive review of all credit ratings for the respective
issuer(s) has been conducted during a rating committee.
RATIONALE FOR OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that the company
will be willing and able to maintain credit metrics commensurate
for the B3 rating over the next 18 months.
LIQUIDITY
Manuchar's liquidity is adequate. Pro-forma for the refinancing
transaction, the company has an estimated cash balance of around
$47 million and has access to a $85 million super senior revolving
credit facility, of which $44 million remains drawn on a pro-forma
basis (on a reported basis, the SSRCF was drawn by $93 million as
of Q1-2025). These estimates are subject to changes during the
refinancing process, though Moody's expects any potential changes
to be relatively marginal.
The company expects to repay the remaining drawings under the SSRCF
with working capital releases in the remainder of the year. In
addition, the company has access to non-recourse factoring
agreements and other working capital facilities.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
Manuchar's proposed EUR415 million backed senior secured floating
rate notes are rated B3, in line with the CFR, which reflects its
dominant position in the capital structure despite the existence of
the SSRCF. The collateral package of the notes mainly consist of
share pledges, and pledges over certain intercompany receivables
and certain bank accounts. The EBITDA guarantor coverage of the
newly proposed bond is around 62%. This represents a material
improvement compared to the outstanding notes, which had a weaker
guarantor coverage. The company added additional subsidiaries as
guarantors compared to the legacy instrument.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Moody's could upgrade the rating if the company improves its
Moody's-adjusted EBITA/interest expense above 1.75x;
Moody's-adjusted total debt/EBITDA declines sustainably below 5.5x;
builds a track record of generating positive FCF; maintains
adequate liquidity with adequate capacity to absorb volatile
working capital swings.
Moody's could downgrade the rating if the company fails to generate
positive FCF; if there is a deterioration of the liquidity profile;
Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA is sustainably above 6.5x or
Moody's-adjusted EBITA interest is below 1.25x without prospects of
earnings driven deleveraging.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Distribution
and Supply Chain Services published in December 2024.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Headquartered in Antwerpen, Belgium, Manuchar Group BV (Manuchar)
is a commodity chemical distributor that operates mainly in
emerging markets. In the last 12 months ended March 2025, the
company generated revenue of $1.3 billion and company-adjusted
EBITDA of $94 million ($111 million pro-forma the acquisition of
Proquiel Químicos Ltda). Since 2022, the company is majority owned
by the private equity firm Lone Star Fund.
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G E R M A N Y
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HT TROPLAST: Moody's Affirms 'B2' CFR, Outlook Remains Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has affirmed the B2 long term corporate family
rating and the B2-PD probability of default rating of HT Troplast
GmbH's (Profine or the company). Concurrently, Moody's have
affirmed the B2 rating of the EUR380 million backed senior secured
notes due July 2028 issued by the company. The outlook remains
stable.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The affirmation of Profine's ratings reflects solid operating
performance, relative to peers in the general building materials
and window and door profile systems sectors, amid prolonged market
downturn for both new build and renovation activities. In the
oligopolistic European fenestration market, Profine stands out as a
vertically integrated PVC profile manufacturer, managing all
production processes internally, from mixing and extrusion to
outbound logistics. The company has a diversified product portfolio
which includes both fenestration and semi-finished products. In the
fenestration segment, Profine expanded its product portfolio with
the acquisition of Dutch aluminum business EFP in October 2024,
which serves as a complement to the PVC business and enables margin
uplift within the aluminum facade systems. Profine has also
expanded its reach by introducing European standardized window and
door profile systems to the US market, becoming one of the few
fully integrated companies in that region.
Profine's global footprint, strong market position, and
premium-quality offerings enable it to sustain robust customer
relationships across a diversified base and effectively pass on
fluctuations in raw material costs. The company has also mitigated
energy cost volatility through hedging and solar panels
installations, while increasing the variability of its operating
cost structure to safeguard margins amidst unpredictable market
dynamics influenced by GDP growth and investment sentiment. This
strategic approach is reflected in Moody's-adjusted EBITDA margin,
which was 13.6% for the twelve months ending March 2025, only
slightly lower than 13.8% in 2024 and a record 14.5% in 2023.
Despite softer earnings, Profine maintained a Moody's-adjusted
debt/EBITDA ratio of 4.9x in LTM March 2025, within rating guidance
for its B2 rating. However, the ratings are constrained by the high
interest, resulting in weak Moody's-adjusted EBIT/Interest coverage
of 1.3x.
Profine's B2 ratings are limited by its inconsistent track record
of positive free cash flow (FCF) generation, due to a high fixed
coupon of 9.375% on its EUR380 million backed senior secured notes,
significant working capital fluctuations, and high capital
expenditures above maintenance needs. The rating is also
constrained by key man and succession risks associated with the CEO
and the owner, Dr. Peter Mrosik. However, Moody's expects Profine
to maintain disciplined financial policies, refraining from
aggressive large debt-funded acquisitions or sizable shareholder
distributions, while focusing on further improving revenues,
earnings, and liquidity.
RATIONALE OF THE OUTLOOK
The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that Profine will
sustain solid operating performance over the next 12-18 months,
with Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA in the range of 4.5x – 5.1x and
Moody's-adjusted EBIT/Interest in the range of 1.3x – 1.5x. It
also assumes that the company will not undertake material
debt-funded acquisitions or shareholder distributions, and will
maintain adequate liquidity at all times.
LIQUIDITY
Profine has adequate liquidity, underpinned by access to EUR26.9
million cash on hand and EUR66.8 million undrawn committed
revolving credit facility (RCF) as of March 31, 2025. In addition,
the company had access to a EUR31.3 million undrawn committed
factoring program, maturing in December 2028, to manage intra-year
working capital fluctuations.
In the next 12-18 months, Moody's estimates that the company will
generate funds from operations in the range of EUR40-55 million,
which should cover working capital requirements, maintenance
capital expenditures of EUR15-20 million, and principal lease
repayments. However, Moody's expects additional discretionary
capital expenditures for the expansion of manufacturing plants in
Poland and the USA will result in negative FCF of up to -EUR25
million. Despite this, Moody's expects the company to maintain an
ending cash balance of EUR30-35 million by the end of 2025 and
2026, which is above the minimum operating cash requirement.
Profine faces no imminent debt maturities prior to January 2028,
when the drawn portion of the RCF matures, followed by the backed
senior secured notes maturing in July 2028. The super senior RCF
contains springing maintenance covenant, assessed quarterly if RCF
utilisation exceeds 35% of total commitments, imposing a maximum
net leverage ratio of 4.5x in 2025, 4.25x in 2026, and 4.0x
thereafter. As of March 31, 2025, Profine's RCF utilization stood
at 21% and the net leverage ratio was 3.8x. In the next 12-18
months, while Moody's expects only a modest covenant headroom,
Moody's do not anticipate RCF drawings exceeding 35% of total
commitments.
STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS
Profine's capital structure comprises EUR380 million backed senior
secured notes and an EUR85 million super senior secured RCF. Both
the backed senior secured notes and the RCF are guaranteed by
operating subsidiaries in various jurisdictions (Germany, France,
Spain, Italy, Poland, the United Kingdom, and the United States)
that account for at least 80% of consolidated EBITDA and 70% of
assets of the group. The notes and RCF share the same security
package, consisting of customary shares pledges, intragroup
receivables, bank accounts, certain current fixed assets, and
certain land charges over real property. However, the super senior
secured RCF benefits from first-ranking security interests over the
senior secured notes. Consequently, in Moody's Loss Given Default
(LGD) waterfall, the super senior secured RCF ranks ahead of the
senior secured notes and trade payables, which then rank ahead of
short-term liabilities, pension obligations, and other bank debt at
the operating entity.
The backed senior secured notes' B2 rating, in line with the CFR,
reflects current low size and drawings under the super senior RCF.
The company's probability of default rating (PDR) of B2-PD, also in
line with the CFR, reflects Moody's standard assumption of a 50%
family recovery rate.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
Positive rating pressure could develop if:
-- Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA remains below 4.0x on a sustained
basis;
-- Moody's-adjusted EBIT/interest exceeds 2.0x;
-- The company demonstrates good liquidity, with Moody's-adjusted
FCF/Debt improving towards high single digits; and
-- The company adheres to conservative financial policies, with no
excessive profit distributions to shareholders or larger
debt-funded acquisitions
Conversely, negative rating pressure would arise if:
-- Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA exceeds 5.0x on a sustained
basis;
-- Moody's-adjusted EBIT/interest declines below 1.5x on a
sustained basis;
-- Liquidity deteriorates, evidenced by significantly weaker or
consistent negative FCF
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was Building
Materials published in September 2021.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores
or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any,
was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
CORPORATE PROFILE
Headquartered in Pirmasens, Germany, Profine is a leading
manufacturer of high-quality PVC window and door profile systems
and PVC sheets. The company encompasses well-known brands,
including Kömmerling (71% of revenue in 2024) founded in 1987, KBE
(26%) founded in 1950, and Trocal (3%) founded in 1981. Profine
operates globally across 25 countries, with Europe contributing 88%
of 2024 revenue, and has significant exposure to renovation
activities, accounting for up to 85% of 2024 revenues, and
residential end-market. In the last twelve months ending March
2025, the company generated EUR806 million in revenue and EUR117
million in company-adjusted EBITDA.
Since 2012, Profine has been privately owned (95% of share capital)
and managed by Dr. Peter A. Mrosik, who also serves as the
company's CEO.
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I R E L A N D
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AQUEDUCT EUROPEAN 11: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating on F Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Aqueduct European CLO 11 DAC final
ratings.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Aqueduct European
CLO 11 DAC
Class A Notes
XS3055724119 LT AAAsf New Rating AAA(EXP)sf
Class B Notes
XS3055724382 LT AAsf New Rating AA(EXP)sf
Class C Notes
XS3055724549 LT Asf New Rating A(EXP)sf
Class D Notes
XS3055724895 LT BBB-sf New Rating BBB-(EXP)sf
Class E Notes
XS3055725272 LT BB-sf New Rating BB-(EXP)sf
Class F Notes
XS3055725439 LT B-sf New Rating B-(EXP)sf
Class Z-1 Notes
XS3055725603 LT NRsf New Rating NR(EXP)sf
Class Z-2 Notes
XS3055725868 LT NRsf New Rating NR(EXP)sf
Class Z-3 Notes
XS3055726080 LT NRsf New Rating NR(EXP)sf
Sub Notes
XS3055726247 LT NRsf New Rating NR(EXP)sf
Transaction Summary
Aqueduct European CLO 11 DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior
secured obligations (at least 90%) with a component of senior
unsecured, mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield bonds. Note
proceeds have been used to purchase a portfolio with a target par
of EUR400 million. The portfolio is actively managed by HPS
Investment Partners CLO (UK) LLP. The collateralised loan
obligation (CLO) has a 4.6-year reinvestment period and an 8.6-year
weighted average life test (WAL).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'. The Fitch-calculated
weighted average rating factor (WARF) of the identified portfolio
is 24.5.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch-calculated
weighted average recovery rate (WARR) of the identified portfolio
is 61.4%.
Diversified Asset Portfolio (Positive): The transaction has a
concentration limit for the 10 largest obligors of 20%. The
transaction also includes various other concentration limits,
including a maximum exposure to the three largest Fitch-defined
industries in the portfolio of 40%. These covenants ensure the
asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction has two matrices
that are effective at closing and two that are effective 18 months
after closing, all with fixed-rate limits of 5% and 12.5%. The
closing matrices correspond to a 8.5-year WAL test while the
forward matrices correspond to a seven-year WAL test. The
transaction has a reinvestment period of about 4.6 years and
includes reinvestment criteria similar to those of other European
transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on a stressed portfolio
with the aim of testing the robustness of the transaction structure
against its covenants and portfolio guidelines.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio analysis is 12 months less than the WAL
covenant. This is to account for the strict reinvestment conditions
envisaged by the transaction after its reinvestment period. These
conditions include passing the coverage tests and the Fitch 'CCC'
bucket limitation test after reinvestment, as well as a WAL
covenant that gradually steps down, before and after the end of the
reinvestment period. Fitch believes these conditions would reduce
the effective risk horizon of the portfolio during stress periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) and a 25% decrease of
the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of the current portfolio
would have no impact on the class A notes, and would lead to
downgrade of one notch each for the class B to E notes and to below
'B-sf' for the class F notes.
Downgrades, which are based on the current portfolio, may occur if
the loss expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to
unexpectedly high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
The class B, D, E and F notes each have a rating cushion of two
notches and the class C notes have a cushion of one notch, due to
the better metrics and shorter life of the current portfolio than
the Fitch-stressed portfolio.
Should the cushion between the current portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings of the
Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to a downgrade of up to three
notches for the class A notes, four notches each for the class B to
D notes and to below 'B-sf' for the class E and F notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR and a 25% increase in the RRR
across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to an
upgrade of up to three notches each for the rated notes, except for
the 'AAAsf' rated notes.
Upgrades during the reinvestment period, which are based on the
Fitch-stressed portfolio, may occur on better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining weighted average
life test, allowing the notes to withstand larger-than-expected
losses for the remaining life of the transaction. Upgrades after
the end of the reinvestment period may result from a stable
portfolio credit quality and deleveraging, leading to higher credit
enhancement and excess spread available to cover losses in the
remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Most of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities have
ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Aqueduct European
CLO 11 DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
CVC CORDATUS XXXV: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating on Cl. F Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned CVC Cordatus Loan Fund XXXV DAC notes
final ratings.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
CVC Cordatus Loan
Fund XXXV DAC
A-1 XS3081947106 LT AAAsf New Rating
A-2 XS3081947361 LT AAAsf New Rating
B XS3081947528 LT AAsf New Rating
C XS3081947874 LT Asf New Rating
D XS3081948096 LT BBB-sf New Rating
E XS3081948252 LT BB-sf New Rating
F XS3081948419 LT B-sf New Rating
Sub Notes XS3081948849 LT NRsf New Rating
Transaction Summary
CVC Cordatus Loan Fund XXXV DAC is a securitisation of mainly (at
least 90%) senior secured obligations with a component of senior
unsecured, mezzanine, second lien loans and high-yield bonds. Note
proceeds have been used to fund the identified portfolio with a
target par of EUR400 million, to close the warehouse arrangements
and pay issuance expense.
The portfolio is actively managed by CVC Credit Partners Investment
Management Limited. The collateralised loan obligation (CLO) has a
4.8-year reinvestment period and a 7.7-year weighted average life
(WAL) test at closing.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'. Fitch's weighted average
rating factor (WARF) of the identified portfolio is 24.0.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate (WARR) of the identified portfolio is 59.5%.
Diversified Portfolio (Positive): The transaction includes two
matrices at closing and two forward matrices that are effective six
months after closing or 18 months after closing if the WAL step-up
occurs, provided the aggregate collateral balance (defaults at
Fitch-calculated collateral value) is at least at the reinvestment
target par balance, among other things. Each matrix set has
fixed-rate asset limits of 5% and 10%.
The transaction also features various portfolio concentration
limits, including a fixed-rate asset limit at 10%, a top 10 obligor
concentration limit at 20% and a maximum exposure to the
three-largest Fitch-defined industries at 40%. These covenants
ensure the asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive
concentration.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The 4.8-year reinvestment period
includes criteria common in European CLO transactions. Fitch's
analysis is based on a stressed portfolio aimed at testing the
robustness of the transaction structure against its covenants and
portfolio guidelines.
WAL Step-Up Feature (Neutral): The transaction could extend the WAL
test by 13 months from the step-up date one year from issue date if
the aggregate collateral balance (defaulted obligations at the
lower of Fitch and another rating agency's-calculated collateral
value) is at least at the reinvestment target par balance and if
the transaction is passing the portfolio profile tests.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL for the Fitch-stressed
portfolio is 12 months shorter than the WAL covenant. This is to
account for the strict reinvestment conditions envisaged by the
transaction after its reinvestment period, which include coverage
test satisfaction and the Fitch 'CCC' bucket limitation test after
reinvestment, as well as a WAL covenant that gradually steps down,
during and after the reinvestment period. These conditions reduce
the effective risk horizon of the portfolio during stress periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (DR) and a 25% decrease of
the recovery rate (RR of the identified portfolio ) across all
ratings would not affect the class A-1 and A-2 notes, but would
lead to a downgrade of one notch each for the class B to E notes
and to below 'B-sf' for the class F notes.
Downgrades, which are based on the identified portfolio, may occur
if the loss expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to
unexpectedly high levels of default and portfolio deterioration.
Due to the better metrics and shorter life of the identified
portfolio than the Fitch-stressed portfolio, the rated notes each
display a rating cushion of up to two notches.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean DR
and a 25% decrease of the RR of the Fitch-stressed portfolio across
all ratings would lead to a downgrade of up to four notches each
for the class A to E notes and to below 'B-sf' for the class F
notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean DR and a 25% increase in the RR across
all ratings of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to an
upgrade of up to three notches each for the class B to E notes and
of five notches for the class F notes.
Upgrades during the reinvestment period, which are based on the
Fitch-stressed portfolio, may occur on better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, allowing
the notes to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the
remaining life of the transaction. Upgrades after the end of the
reinvestment period may result from stable portfolio credit quality
and deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
The majority of the underlying assets or risk presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and European Securities
and Markets Authority- registered rating agencies. Fitch has relied
on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch and other
rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio information or
information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above, its
assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's rating
analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies indicates
that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for CVC Cordatus Loan
Fund XXXV DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
===================
L U X E M B O U R G
===================
ECARAT DE SA 2025-1: Moody's Assigns Ba2 Rating to EUR30MM F Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Ratings has assigned definitive ratings to Notes issued by
ECARAT DE S.A., COMPARTMENT LEASE 2025-1:
EUR717.5M Class A Asset-Backed Floating Rate Notes due May 2034,
Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)
EUR57.5M Class B Asset-Backed Floating Rate Notes due May 2034,
Definitive Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)
EUR55M Class C Asset-Backed Floating Rate Notes due May 2034,
Definitive Rating Assigned A1 (sf)
EUR45M Class D Asset-Backed Floating Rate Notes due May 2034,
Definitive Rating Assigned Baa1 (sf)
EUR85M Class E Asset-Backed Floating Rate Notes due May 2034,
Definitive Rating Assigned Ba1 (sf)
EUR30M Class F Asset-Backed Floating Rate Notes due May 2034,
Definitive Rating Assigned Ba2 (sf)
Moody's have not assigned a rating to the subordinated EUR10M Class
G Asset-Backed Floating Rate Notes due May 2034.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The Notes are backed by a 1 year revolving pool of German auto
leases originated by Stellantis Bank S.A. Niederlassung
Deutschland.
The portfolio of assets amount to approximately EUR1,000.0 million
as of June 5, 2025, pool cutoff date. The Liquidity Reserve Fund
will be funded to 1.1% of the total Notes balance at closing and
the total credit enhancement for the Class A Notes will be 28.25%.
Margins of the notes and swap rate to be paid by the issuer to the
swap counterparty have decreased with respect to those assumed at
the time of provisional ratings, thus increasing the excess spread
available in the transaction.
The ratings are primarily based on the credit quality of the
portfolio, the structural features of the transaction and its legal
integrity.
According to Moody's Ratings, the transaction benefits from various
credit strengths such as: (i) an amortizing liquidity reserve fund
sized at 1.3% of Class A, B, C and D note balance with a floor at
0.5% of Class A, B, C and D initial note balance; and (ii) a
granular portfolio of assets.
However, Moody's notes that the transaction features some credit
weaknesses such as: the pro-rata amortization of the notes under
certain scenarios. Various mitigants have been included in the
transaction structure such as: (i) an independent cash manager;
(ii) sufficient liquidity provided by the liquidity reserve; (iii)
principal to pay interest; and (iv) the performance and structural
triggers which can stop the addition of new loans in the pool and
change the payment structure in the waterfall.
The portfolio of underlying assets was distributed through dealers
to private individuals (60.0%) and commercial borrowers (40.0%) to
finance the purchase of new (70.4%) and used (29.6%) cars. As of
5th June 2025, the portfolio consists of 54,009 auto finance
contracts to 49,819 borrowers with a weighted average seasoning of
1.4 years.
Moody's determined the portfolio lifetime expected defaults of
1.2%, expected recoveries of 50.0% and Aaa portfolio credit
enhancement (PCE) of 7.5% related to borrower receivables. The
expected defaults and recoveries capture Moody's expectations of
performance considering the current economic outlook, while the PCE
captures the loss Moody's expects the portfolio to suffer in the
event of a severe recession scenario. Expected defaults and PCE are
parameters used by us to calibrate its lognormal portfolio loss
distribution curve and to associate a probability with each
potential future loss scenario in the cash flow model to rate Auto
ABS.
Portfolio expected defaults of 1.2% is lower than the EMEA Auto ABS
average and is based on Moody's assessments of the lifetime
expectation for the pool taking into account: (i) historic
performance of the book of the originator; (ii) benchmark
transactions; (iii) the potential drift in asset quality since new
loans can be added to the pool subject to certain conditions being
met; and (iv) other qualitative considerations.
Portfolio expected recoveries of 50.0% is in line with the EMEA
Auto ABS average and is based on Moody's assessments of the
lifetime expectation for the pool taking into account: (i) historic
performance of the book of the originator; (ii) benchmark
transactions; and (iii) other qualitative considerations.
PCE of 7.5% is in line with the EMEA Auto ABS average and is based
on Moody's assessments of the pool which is mainly driven by: (i)
the relative ranking to originator peers in the EMEA market; (ii)
benchmark transactions; (iii) the potential drift in asset quality
since new loans can be added to the pool subject to certain
conditions being met; and (iv) other qualitative considerations.
The PCE level of 7.5% results in an implied coefficient of
variation ('CoV') of 82.5%.
The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Auto Loan- and Lease-Backed ABS" published in
June 2025.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:
Factors that may cause an upgrade of the ratings of the notes
include significantly better than expected performance of the pool
together with an increase in credit enhancement of Notes.
Factors that would lead to a downgrade of the ratings include: (i)
increased counterparty risk leading to potential operational risk
of (a) servicing or cash management interruptions and (b) the risk
of increased swap linkage due to a downgrade of a currency swap
counterparty ratings; and (ii) economic conditions being worse than
forecast resulting in higher arrears and losses.
===========
R U S S I A
===========
UZBEKISTAN: Fitch Hikes Foreign Currency IDR to BB, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Uzbekistan's Long-Term Foreign-Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BB', from 'BB-'. The Outlook is
Stable.
Key Rating Drivers
Ratings Upgraded: The upgrade reflects accelerated reform progress
and favourable medium-term growth prospects, which Fitch expects
will contain macrostability risks and continue to drive a sustained
improvement in structural credit metrics. These reforms include
measures to improve credibility and transmission of monetary
policy, advancement of privatisation plans and enhancing
transparency of public institutions. Energy tariff liberalisation
and subsidy reform contributed to stronger-than-expected fiscal
performance in 2024. This is reflected in steady strengthening of
governance indicators, although they are still weaker than peers.
The rating continues to reflect low public debt, sizeable external
and fiscal buffers and high potential growth, which is balanced by
relatively low GDP per capita, high commodity dependence, and still
high inflation and financial dollarisation.
Improved Fiscal Position, SOE Reforms: The consolidated budget
deficit for 2024 was just over 3% of GDP, better than the
authorities' fiscal deficit target of 4% of GDP. This was the
result of a broad-based increase in revenues, coupled with halving
energy subsidy expenditure to less than 1% of GDP. Fitch expects
the deficit to average 3% of GDP in 2025 and 2026, with continued
commitment from the authorities to expenditure restraint. Reforms
to increase revenue mobilisation could provide an additional
buffer.
Reforms to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have gained momentum,
with a further reduction in their number, the transfer of the
state's share in 18 SOEs to the National Investment Fund that was
set up in August 2024, and reorganisation and restructuring of some
large enterprises last year with the objective of improving
independence and governance.
Low Government Debt: Fitch forecasts government debt-GDP (excluding
external guarantees), at about 32% in 2025 and 2026, well below the
'BB' median of about 54%. Nearly 89% of debt is
foreign-currency-denominated and a sizeable share is concessional.
The average maturity of external debt is just over nine years.
Explicitly guaranteed government debt is about 6% of GDP. Based on
its estimates, net general government debt, excluding central
government deposits, was about 26% of GDP at end-2024 (down from
2019, when it was about -6% of GDP). Unguaranteed SOE external debt
was about 5% of GDP and external borrowings for public private
partnership projects was about 4% of GDP at end-2024.
Favourable Growth Prospects: Fitch forecasts high economic growth
in 2025 and 2026 of 6.3% (peer median of 3.8%), broadly in line
with 2024, supported by ongoing economic reforms, favourable demand
for key commodity exports, particularly gold, and the rising inflow
of remittances. Real GDP in 1Q25 grew by 6.8% year on year, boosted
by continued strong expansion in services. There is still sizeable
economic dependence on Russia, which accounts for about 13.7% of
exports, 20.4% of imports and 77% of remittances at end-2024, but
Uzbekistan continues to cooperate on enforcement of Western
sanctions.
Substantial External Buffers: FX reserves including gold increased
to USD49.7 billion at 1 June 2025, from about USD41 billion at
end-2024, and Fitch expects reserve coverage of current external
payments will be high, at about 10 months over 2025 and 2026, more
than double the 'BB' peer median. The increase was largely driven
by higher gold prices (gold accounts for nearly 77% of FX
reserves), highlighting vulnerability to commodity price changes.
Net External Creditor, Commodity Dependence: Uzbekistan has a
relatively large net external creditor position, estimated at about
21% of GDP in 2025. This is down from about 44% in 2020, but
remains a strength relative to the 'BB' median. Dependence on
commodity exports is relatively high and leaves external finances
vulnerable to external shocks. Commodity dependence as a share of
current external receipts, was substantial at nearly 30% in 2024.
However, the share of services in exports of goods and services has
been increasing, with services accounting for about 25% of total
exports of goods and services in 2024, up from 14% in 2021.
Inflation Moderating But Still High: The Central Bank of Uzbekistan
has continued to phase in inflation targeting and has raised the
policy rate by 50bp so far in 2025, to 14%. Fitch expects inflation
to slow to an average of 7% in 2026, from about 9% in 2024. This
will still be above the central bank's 5% medium-term target.
Yearly inflation fell in May 2025, to just below 9% after a high of
about 10% in March this year, mainly on the back of lower inflation
in services, which make up about 23% of the CPI basket.
Stable Banking Sector: Banking sector profitability is modest, with
a return on equity of nearly 7% at end-2024, while the total
capital adequacy ratio was around 17%. The regulatory
non-performing loan ratio was a low 4% at end-2024, although Fitch
estimates the sector's impaired loans under IFRS was close to 10%.
Financial dollarisation has been falling, with deposit
dollarisation reaching about 24.5% in March 2025, a substantial
reduction from about 40% in early 2020. The share of
state-subsidised lending in outstanding loans fell further, to 23%
in April 2025, from 28% in June 2024, helped by reforms. However,
it remains substantial and impairs monetary policy transmission.
ESG - Governance: Uzbekistan has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for
Political Stability and Rights and the Rule of Law, Institutional
and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. Theses scores
reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators
(WBGI) have in its proprietary Sovereign Rating Model (SRM).
Uzbekistan has a low WBGI ranking at the 28th percentile,
reflecting relatively weak rights for participation in the
political process, weak institutional capacity, uneven application
of the rule of law and a high level of corruption.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
External Finances: A marked worsening of external finances, for
example, through a large and sustained drop in remittances, or a
widening in the trade deficit owing to a sustained drop in
commodity prices, which leads to a significant decline in FX
reserves.
Public Finances: A marked rise in the government debt-to-GDP ratio
or an erosion of sovereign fiscal buffers, for example, due to an
extended period of lower growth, substantial fiscal loosening,
sharp currency depreciation or crystallisation of contingent
liabilities.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Macro: Faster implementation of structural reforms that promote
macroeconomic stability, sustain stronger GDP growth prospects and
support better fiscal outturns.
Structural: A marked and sustained further improvement in
governance standards.
Public Finances: Durable fiscal consolidation and improvement in
public finance management that enhances medium-term public debt
sustainability.
Sovereign Rating Model (SRM) and Qualitative Overlay (QO)
Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Uzbekistan a score equivalent to a
rating of 'BB-' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR
scale. Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from
the SRM to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its QO,
relative to SRM data and output, as follows:
Macro: +1 notch to reflect its forecast for a fall in inflation and
GDP growth volatility alongside continued strong economic growth
supported by reform progress, which is not yet fully captured in
the SRM.
Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating
model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred
averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score
equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking,
qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM
output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within its
criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected
in the SRM.
Country Ceiling
Fitch has revised Uzbekistan's Country Ceiling up to 'BB' from
'BB-', in line with the LT FC IDR. This reflects the absence of
material constraints and incentives, relative to the IDR, against
capital or exchange controls being imposed that would prevent or
significantly impede the private sector from converting local
currency into foreign currency and transferring the proceeds to
non-resident creditors to service debt payments.
Fitch's Country Ceiling Model produced a starting point uplift of 0
notches above the IDR. Fitch's rating committee did not apply a
qualitative adjustment to the model result.
ESG Considerations
Uzbekistan has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Political
Stability and Rights as WBGI have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM
and are, therefore, highly relevant to the rating and a key rating
driver with a high weight. As Uzbekistan has a percentile rank
below 50 for the respective Governance Indicator, this has a
negative impact on the credit profile.
Uzbekistan has an ESG Relevance Score of '5' for Rule of Law,
Institutional and Regulatory Quality, Control of Corruption as WBGI
have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and are, therefore, highly
relevant to the rating and a key rating driver with a high weight.
As Uzbekistan has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective
Governance Indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit
profile.
Uzbekistan has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the
WBGI is relevant to the rating and a rating driver. As Uzbekistan
has a percentile rank below 50 for the respective Governance
Indicator, this has a negative impact on the credit profile.
Uzbekistan has an ESG Relevance Score of '4[+]' for Creditor Rights
as willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating
and is a rating driver for Uzbekistan, as for all sovereigns. As
Uzbekistan has a record of 20+ years without a restructuring of
public debt, as captured in Fitch's SRM variable, this has a
positive impact on the credit profile.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Uzbekistan,
Republic of LT IDR BB Upgrade BB-
ST IDR B Affirmed B
LC LT IDR BB Upgrade BB-
LC ST IDR B Affirmed B
Country Ceiling BB Upgrade BB-
senior
unsecured LT BB Upgrade BB-
=========
S P A I N
=========
AUTONORIA SPAIN 2025: Fitch Assigns 'BBsf' Final Rating on F Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned AutoNoria Spain 2025, FT final ratings.
The final ratings on the class D to F notes are up to two notches
higher than their expected ratings. This has mainly been driven by
lower final coupon rates payable to noteholders and a lower
interest rate payable to the swap provider than initially
considered.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
AutoNoria Spain
2025, FT
A ES0305904007 LT AAAsf New Rating AAA(EXP)sf
B ES0305904015 LT AAsf New Rating AA(EXP)sf
C ES0305904023 LT Asf New Rating A(EXP)sf
D ES0305904031 LT BBB+sf New Rating BBB(EXP)sf
E ES0305904049 LT BB+sf New Rating BB(EXP)sf
F ES0305904056 LT BBsf New Rating B+(EXP)sf
G ES0305904064 LT NRsf New Rating NR(EXP)sf
Transaction Summary
AutoNoria Spain 2025, FT is a revolving securitisation of a
portfolio of fully amortising auto loans originated in Spain by
Banco Cetelem S.A.U. (Cetelem; the seller). Cetelem is a specialist
lender fully owned by BNP Paribas SA (A+/Stable/F1).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Asset Assumptions Reflect Mixed Portfolio: The portfolio includes
loans for the acquisition of cars (new and used), motorcycles and
recreational vehicles. Due to the differences in product
characteristics, Fitch has calibrated asset assumptions for each
product reflecting its performance expectations. Fitch has assumed
base-case lifetime default and recovery rates of 3.4% and 17.5%,
respectively, for the blended portfolio, given the historical data
provided by Cetelem, Spain's economic outlook and the originator's
underwriting and servicing strategies.
Recovery Rate Expectations: The base case recovery rate expectation
is lower than Spanish auto ABS peer transactions, and reflects
information received from the originator that the recovery strategy
will be influenced by non-performing loan sales.
Short Revolving Period: The transaction has a nine-month revolving
period. Fitch has not stressed the portfolio composition as it
views the relatively short revolving period and tight replenishment
criteria to be sufficient to limit any potential adverse migration
of the pool.
Hybrid Pro-Rata Redemption: After the revolving period, the class A
to G notes will amortise based on their target subordination
ratios, which are equal to their initial credit enhancement (CE)
ratios. Therefore, all the notes amortise pro rata if no sequential
amortisation event occurs and there is no principal deficiency
ledger (PDL) in debit.
Sequential amortisation events are linked to performance triggers
such as a PDL or cumulative defaults exceeding certain thresholds.
Fitch views these triggers as sufficiently robustto prevent the pro
rata mechanism from continuing on early signs of performance
deterioration. Fitch believes the tail risk posed by the pro rata
pay-down is mitigated by the mandatory switch to sequential
amortisation when the note balance falls below 10% of the initial
balance.
Servicing Disruption Risk Mitigated: Fitch views the liquidity
reserve as adequate to mitigate payment interruption risk in a
scenario of servicer disruption. It is available to cover senior
costs, net swap payments (if any) and interest for the rated notes
over three months, a period Fitch views as sufficient to implement
an alternative arrangement.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
For the class A notes, a downgrade of Spain's Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating (IDR) that could decrease the maximum achievable
rating for Spanish structured finance transactions. This is because
these notes are rated at the maximum achievable rating, six notches
above Spain's IDR.
For the class F notes, a combination of reduced excess spread and
the late reception of recovery cash flows, particularly at the tail
of the life of the transaction. This considers the thin layer of CE
protection available to these notes.
Long-term asset performance deterioration such as increased
delinquencies or reduced portfolio yield, which could be driven by
changes in portfolio characteristics, macroeconomic conditions,
business practices or the legislative landscape.
Expected impact on the notes' ratings of increased defaults (class
A/B/C/D/E/F)
Increase default rates by 10%:
'AA+sf'/'AAsf'/'Asf'/'BBBsf'/'BBsf'/'BBsf'
Increase default rates by 25%:
'AA+sf'/'A+sf'/'BBB+sf'/'BBB-sf'/'BBsf'/'B+sf'
Increase default rates by 50%:
'AA-sf'/'Asf'/'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'/'B+sf'/'Bsf'
Expected impact on the notes' ratings of reduced recoveries (class
A/B/C/D/E/F)
Reduce recovery rates by 10%:
'AAAsf'/'AAsf'/'Asf'/'BBB+sf'/'BB+sf'/'BBsf'
Reduce recovery rates by 25%:
'AAAsf'/'AAsf'/'Asf'/'BBB+sf'/'BB+sf'/'BBsf'
Reduce recovery rates by 50%:
'AAAsf'/'AA-sf'/'Asf'/'BBBsf'/'BBsf'/'BBsf'
Expected impact on the notes' ratings of increased defaults and
reduced recoveries (class A/B/C/D/E/F)
Increase default rates by 10% and reduce recovery rates by 10%:
'AA+sf'/'AA-sf'/'A-sf'/'BBBsf'/'BBsf'/'BBsf'
Increase default rates by 25% and reduce recovery rates by 25%:
'AAsf'/'A+sf'/'BBB+sf'/'BBB-sf'/'BB-sf'/'B+sf'
Increase default rates by 50% and reduce recovery rates by 50%:
'A+sf'/'A-sf'/'BBB-sf'/'BBsf'/'B-sf'/'CCCsf'
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
The class A notes are rated at the highest level on Fitch's scale
and cannot be upgraded.
For the other notes, increasing CE ratios as the transaction
deleverages to fully compensate for the credit losses and cash flow
stresses commensurate with higher rating scenarios.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
AutoNoria Spain 2025, FT
Fitch reviewed the results of a third party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information, and concluded that there were no
findings that affected the rating analysis.
Fitch conducted a review of a small targeted sample of the
originator's origination files and found the information contained
in the reviewed files to be adequately consistent with the
originator's policies and practices and the other information
provided to the agency about the asset portfolio.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
=====================
S W I T Z E R L A N D
=====================
PEACH PROPERTY: Fitch Hikes Rating on Senior Unsecured Debt to 'B'
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Peach Property Group AG's Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'CCC+' and upgraded its senior
unsecured rating to 'B' from 'B-'. The Recovery Rating is 'RR2'.
The affirmation reflects remaining but reduced uncertainty around
the outstanding EUR173 million unsecured bond maturing in November
2025. The group's EUR1.9 billion residential-for-rent portfolio was
geographically refocused after the end-2024 block disposal. This
will improve the group's cash flows and reduce vacancy costs
through planned capex carved out of tight liquidity, but legacy
overhead costs are unlikely to reduce.
On 16 June, Peach announced a new EUR120 million secured financing,
of which EUR90 million is new liquidity to part-repay the unsecured
bond. Other plans for the remaining EUR83 million outstanding,
including additional equity, are in progress. Fitch expects net
debt/EBITDA leverage after refinancing to improve to below 18x and
interest coverage above 1.5x by 2026, indicating a higher IDR. The
Recovery Rating has improved as cash has prepaid debt.
Key Rating Drivers
November 2025 Bond Approaching: Management has demonstrated its
ability to take measures to repay 2025 debt, including the EUR300
million senior unsecured bond maturing in November 2025.
By end-1Q25 Peach had used some of its EUR218 million end-2024 cash
to repay promissory notes maturing in March 2025, and EUR125
million of November 2025 bonds tendered. There are three likely
solutions for the repayment of the remaining EUR173 million: the
new secured debt announced on 16 June; raising fresh equity, as
approved at the May 2025 shareholders' general meeting; and adding
other secured debt, possibly using the residual value of existing
low loan-to-value (LTV) mortgage lending.
Renewed Capex Programme: Fitch expects Peach to allocate around
EUR40 million capex a year from 2025, mainly to assets within the
strategic portfolio to reduce vacancy (end-2024: 5.2%) and achieve
rental uplifts. Addressing high vacancy in the scattered
non-strategic portfolio (end-2024: 10.6%), often far from local
teams ("Peach Points" - customer service hubs), will be more
challenging. The proportion of non-strategic assets, at 25% of the
portfolio, has not decreased despite the portfolio disposal.
In 2024 Peach increased capex to EUR36 million carved out from
inbound liquidity after having to cut this to EUR19 million in
2023, which reversed vacancy reduction trends.
Refocused Portfolio: Peach has improved its geographical focus,
facilitating more efficient asset management and capex. Eighty-four
percent of the EUR1.9 billion of assets at end-2024 are located in
Germany's North Rhine-Westphalia area after the November 2024
portfolio disposal (5,200 units/19% of the portfolio) to Globe
Trade Centre S.A. (BB/Rating Watch Negative). The assets are
affected by their concentration in the Ruhr area, one of Germany's
most densely populated regions. Cities such as Gelsenkirchen, where
Peach holds a substantial number of assets, face economic
challenges resulting from the decline of traditional industries.
Secondary Portfolio Liquidity: Peach's residential rental assets
are of secondary quality, as indicated by an average asset value
per apartment of EUR86,000 and EUR1,300 per sqm at end-2024, along
with unusually high tenant churn above 10%. The portfolio had a 11%
downward revaluation during 2022-2023. Peach has shown assets can
be sold with minimal discount to book value if disposals are
carried out individually rather than as block sales.
Improving Financial Profile: Fitch forecasts Peach's net
debt/EBITDA will decline to below 18x in 2026, aided by the 2024
portfolio disposal proceeds. The 2024 leverage of 17.2x is
transitional, as it does not reflect the rent lost from the
portfolio disposal. The low Fitch-calculated LTV of 54% at end-2024
(end-2023: 60%) helps the company access or extend debt. Fitch
calculates that EBITDA interest coverage could increase above 1.5x
from 2025 following the 2025 refinancing challenges, and the
allocation of resources and funds from the disposal of
non-strategic assets to improve cash flows, supported by reduced
interest rates.
Peer Analysis
Peach's portfolio, totalling EUR1.9 billion at end-2024, is
materially smaller than Fitch-rated German residential-for-rent
Vonovia SE's (IDR: BBB+/Stable) EUR78.3 billion and Heimstaden
Bostad AB's (BBB-/Stable) EUR29 billion. Peach's portfolio is more
comparable to D.V.I. Deutsche Vermogens- und Immobilienverwaltungs
GmbH's (DVI, BBB-/Stable), which is all German and valued at EUR2.3
billion (excluding commercial buildings) at end-2024.
Peach's portfolio average end-2024 in-place rent was EUR6.4 per sqm
per month, indicating lower-quality assets and locations than
Vonovia's German portfolio, which averages rent of EUR8 per sqm,
and DVI's Berlin-weighted portfolio rent of EUR8.9 per sqm. The
difference in the portfolios' qualities is also reflected in their
respective vacancy rates, at a reported 7.4% for Peach at end-2024,
above 1.6% at DVI and 1.5% at Vonovia at end-2024.
Peach's interest cover, forecast at around 1.2x in 2024, is lower
than Heimstaden Bostad's 1.4x which is due to improve thereafter.
Fitch forecasts the interest cover for both DVI and Vonovia to
remain at or above 2.3x over the next three years. Peach's end-2024
remaining average debt maturity was low at 2.9 years, compared with
Vonovia's 6.9 years, and at or above eight years for Heimstaden
Bostad and DVI, putting Peach's liquidity and rating under
significant pressure.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within its Rating Case for the Issuer
- Rent loss from the 2024 5,200 unit disposal translating into a
EUR23 million reduction in rental income fully reflected in 2025
- EUR40 million of capex in each year in 2025-2029 (2024: EUR36
million), funded by equivalent disposals from the non-strategic
portfolio
- Annual rental growth of about 4.0%, comprising 1.5% for phased
indexation/re-lettings and 2.5% for re-letting of units that have
been refurbished
- EUR14 million of other operating costs in 2024, which were
inflated by one-offs related to the portfolio disposal and costs
from the change in management; other operating costs to return to
normalised levels of EUR10 million a year
- Interest costs on newly issued euro-denominated variable-rate
debt based on Fitch's Global Economic Outlook policy rate
assumptions (2025: 2.0%; 2026 and thereafter: 1.5%)
- EUR50 million in equity expected to be received in 2H25 based on
the May 2025 general meeting-approved capital increase
- Hybrid bond interest not deferred, but paid at 9.25% margin plus
policy rate
- Completion of Peach's Swiss residential-for-sale development in
2026 resulting in a working-capital inflow of EUR30 million
Recovery Analysis
Its recovery analysis assumes that Peach would be liquidated rather
than restructured as a going concern in a default.
Recoveries are based on the EUR344 million unencumbered portfolio,
using the end-2024 independently valued investment property
portfolio, updated for the EUR120 million secured facility
announced on 16 June (which raised EUR90 million new cash
proceeds). Fitch applies a standard 20% discount to the EUR190
million it estimates remains unencumbered after this transaction.
After deducting a standard 10% for administrative claims, this
generates an estimated liquidation value of EUR137 million compared
with debt of EUR134 million including EUR90 million debt reduction
from the recent secured facility. Fitch's principal waterfall
analysis generates a high ranked recovery for the unsecured bond
but under Fitch's Recovery Rating criteria, the unsecured bond's
Recovery Rating is capped at 'RR2'.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- A material likelihood of a debt restructuring on terms that would
constitute a distressed debt exchange
- Senior unsecured rating: reductions in the unencumbered property
portfolio relative to unsecured debt, adversely affecting recovery
estimates
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Execution of a plan to address 2025's remaining refinance risk
that is not viewed by Fitch as a distressed debt exchange
- Twelve-month liquidity score above 1.0x, combined with a
sustainable capital structure with limited funding risks
Liquidity and Debt Structure
As at end-1Q25 Fitch expect funds to repay the remaining EUR173
million of the November 2025 senior unsecured bond to stem
primarily from new debt and new equity capital. Generating net
proceeds from further disposals, likely from non-strategic assets
(end-2024: EUR475 million) is unlikely to provide short-term
liquidity as further portfolio disposals are not management's
preference. Peach does not have any revolving credit facility.
Excluding maturing secured debt, which Fitch assumes will be
rolled-over, further funds are required for 2025.
During 1Q25, aided by EUR218 million end-2024 cash from 4Q24's
equity raise and asset disposal, Peach reduced its 2025 debt
maturities by EUR182 million (consisting of a EUR127 million
voluntary tender offer repayment for the EUR300 million unsecured
bond and the EUR55 million promissory note). Peach has executable
options (see Key Rating Drivers) to address the EUR173 million
remaining on the senior unsecured bond.
A return to unsecured capital market funding seems remote due to
non-competitive pricing and the remaining outstanding bond lacking
benchmark size.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Peach Property
Group AG LT IDR CCC+ Affirmed CCC+
senior unsecured LT B Upgrade RR2 B-
Peach Property
Finance GmbH
senior unsecured LT B Upgrade RR2 B-
===========
T U R K E Y
===========
BALIKESIR METROPOLITAN: Fitch Assigns 'B+' IDRs, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned the Balikesir Metropolitan Municipality
Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs)
of 'B+' with Stable Rating Outlooks.
Fitch expects Balikesir's operating performance and debt ratios to
be commensurate with a 'b+' Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) and 'b'
category peers over the rating case horizon. The 'B+' IDRs are
driven by Balikesir's 'b+' SCP.
The SCP results from a 'Weaker' risk profile and a financial
profile at the upper end of the 'bbb' category. No other rating
factors affect the IDRs.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Risk Profile: 'Weaker'
Fitch has assessed Balikesir's risk profile at 'Weaker', reflecting
a combination of a four 'Weaker' key risk factors and two
'Midrange' factors, The assessment reflects Fitch's view that there
is a high risk of the issuer's ability to cover debt service with
the operating balance weakening unexpectedly over the scenario
horizon (2025-2029) due to lower revenue, higher expenditure, or an
unexpected rise in liabilities or debt service requirements.
Revenue Robustness: 'Midrange'
The 'Midrange' assessment factors in Balikesir's dynamic tax base
and its mainly agriculture based industrialized local economy. Its
diversified tax-revenue structure demonstrates resilience against
significant volatility, and its robust tax revenue growth prospects
are broadly in line with expected national nominal GDP in
2025-2029. Tax revenue CAGR was 62.7% in 2020-2024, surpassing the
national nominal GDP CAGR of 58.8%.
Taxes averaged 70% of operating revenue for the last five years.
Tax revenue growth should drive operating revenue towards TRY21.4
billion by 2029 (2024: TRY7.3billion), even under Fitch's
conservative rating case.
Revenue Adjustability: 'Weaker'
Balikesir's ability to generate additional revenue is constrained
by nationally pre-defined tax rates. At end-2024, nationally set
and collected taxes comprised 66% of total revenue. Local taxes,
over which Balikesir has tax autonomy, made up a low 0.3% of total
revenue, indicating negligible tax flexibility due to ceilings set
by the central government. However, this is partially offset by
financial equalization transfers received by metropolitan
municipalities. These transfers contribute 25% of Balikesir's total
revenue, and remain significant for Turkish mid-sized metropolitan
municipalities, which are net recipients due to their lower GDP per
capita compared to the sovereign.
Expenditure Sustainability: 'Weaker'
Moderately cyclical to countercyclical spending responsibilities
allows Balikesir to adapt spending to local economic cycles. High
inflation caused operating expenditure (CAGR 69.4%) to increase
more quickly than operating revenues (CAGR: 60.6%) over 2020-2024.
Fitch expects persistently high inflation to challenge Balikesir's
control over its total expenditure.
Balikesir reported substantial deficits of 50% of total revenue
before financing over the past two years. This was mainly due to
ambitious capital expenditure plans, increased staff costs from
salary adjustments above inflation, and workforce expansion in
municipal companies during the 2023-2024 election cycle.
Post-election cycle, new senior management implemented cost-cutting
measures, leading to total revenue growth surpassing total
expenditure growth in 2024. Therefore, under Fitch's rating case
scenario, Fitch expects that operating expenditure growth will be
largely contained and in line with operating revenue growth. Recent
cost-cutting initiatives by the central government and an expected
reduction in inflation starting in 2026 should support more
effective management of rising expenditures.
Expenditure Adjustability: 'Midrange'
On average, inflexible costs account for less than 80% of
Balikesir's total expenditure, which is less than its international
peers but aligns with other Fitch-rated Turkish metropolitan
municipalities. Balikesir's spending flexibility is hindered by its
recent weak history of balanced budgets, attributed to ambitious
capital expenditure plans during the 2023-2024 election cycle.
Fitch anticipates that persistent high inflation will further
reduce the metropolitan municipality's spending flexibility.
However, Fitch expects Balikesir's spending flexibility to
gradually improve from 2026, as inflation slows. Also, thanks to
its moderate level of services and investments, Fitch expects city
to scale down its investment plan in 2024-2026 to accommodate its
budgetary consolidation measures.
Capex accounts for 12% of total expenditures on average. Its
investment program for 2024-2026 avoids capital-intensive projects
and focuses on enhancing existing basic infrastructure,
particularly road maintenance and construction. This enhances
Balikesir's flexibility compared to some other Fitch-rated
municipalities.
Liabilities & Liquidity Robustness: 'Weaker'
While its national peers have high, unhedged FX exposure of above
30%, Balikesir has no unhedged FX risk because its entire debt
portfolio is denominated in Turkish lira. A majority of its loans
carry fixed interest rates, minimizing interest rate risk.
The short weighted average life of its total debt (2.6 years)
results in high refinancing pressure, as nearly 20% of its debt is
due in 2025.This exposes Balikesir to moderate refinancing risk,
compounded by a weaker coverage ratio below 1.0x. These risks are
partly offset by the amortising nature of Balikesir's bank loans
and additional budgetary flexibility from its expected capital
revenue generation capacity over the medium term.
Balikesir is exposed to moderately high off-balance sheet risk
compared to its national peers. The Balikesir Water and Sewerage
Administration (BASKI), a municipally owned utility, has total debt
of TRY1.68 billion. Fitch classifies it as 'other Fitch-classified
debt' of Balikesir because it could become a direct obligation of
the metropolitan municipality after reporting negative operating
balances for the last three years.
Fitch also classifies Balikesir Public Transportation Company's
(BTT) TRY60.8 million of debt as 'other Fitch-classified debt'. The
transportation company has consistently incurred losses. In
addition, Fitch classifies TRY2.0 billion of overdue liabilities
from majority-owned companies, mainly to the Social Security
Administration, as 'other Fitch-classified debt' after a recent
regulatory change. These overdue liabilities further pressures
Balikesir's liquidity. They are deducted monthly from tax shares
allocated by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance and are offset
against the payables owed to the companies.
Liabilities & Liquidity Flexibility: 'Weaker'
The counterparty risk associated with Balikesir's domestic
liquidity providers rated below 'BBB-' and with the short tenor of
its loans limit its assessment to 'Weaker', like other Turkish
local and regional governments (LRGs). Balikesir has good access to
national lenders, but international access is still evolving. Its
national lenders are a mix of state-owned and commercial banks such
as Ilbank (Turkish Municipal Bank), Turkiye Cumhuriyeti Ziraat
Bankasi Anonim Sirketi (B+/Positive), Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi
T.A.O.(B+/Positive), Turk Ekonomi Bankasi A.S. (BB-/Stable),
Turkiye HalkBankasi A.S. (B+/Stable), and Denizbank A.S.
(BB-/Stable).
The municipality's year-end cash was fully restricted for the
settlement of payables at end-2024. Turkish LRGs do not benefit
from treasury lines or national cash-pooling, making it challenging
to fund unexpected increases in debt liabilities or spending
peaks.
Financial Profile: 'bbb category'
Under Fitch's rating case for 2025-2029, Balikesir's operating
balance will increase to about TRY2.5billion, from TRY484million in
2024, with direct debt up at TRY31.5 billion in 2029 from TRY4.4
billion in 2024. This will result in a payback ratio (Fitch's
net-adjusted debt/operating balance) of 13.5x, at the upper end of
a 'bbb' financial profile assessment. For secondary metrics,
Fitch's rating case projects that the ADSCR will remain below 1.0x
corresponding to a 'b' assessment.
The fiscal debt burden will remain below 200%, corresponding to an
'bbb' financial profile assessment.
This forecast reflects Balikesir's moderate medium-term investment
agenda prior to local elections in 2029 and is further supported by
an expected improvement in its operating balance.
Derivation Summary
Fitch assesses Balikesir SCP at 'b+'. This reflects a combination
of a 'Weaker' Risk Profile and Financial Profile assessed in the
upper end of 'bbb' category under Fitch's rating case scenario. The
SCP also reflects the municipality's debt metrics compared with its
national and international peers. Fitch expects Balikesir's
operating performance to improve to a level commensurate with its
current ratings. Balikesir's IDRs are not capped by the Turkish
sovereign's IDRs, and no other rating factors affect the rating.
Short-Term Ratings
A 'B' Short-Term IDR is the only option possible for a 'B+'
Long-Term IDR.
National Ratings
Balikesir's National Rating is derived from its Long-Term
Local-Currency IDR of 'B+', which maps to 'A+(tur)' on its Turkish
National Rating Correspondence Table based on peer comparison.
Balikesir's ratings reflect lower operating margins than other
Turkish metropolitan municipalities, a significantly higher payback
ratio (net adjusted debt to operating balance) and an expected
decrease in capex because of budgetary consolidation measures.
Key Assumptions
Risk Profile: 'Weaker'
Revenue Robustness: 'Midrange'
Revenue Adjustability: 'Weaker'
Expenditure Sustainability: 'Weaker'
Expenditure Adjustability: 'Midrange'
Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness: 'Weaker'
Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility: 'Weaker'
Financial Profile: 'bbb'
Asymmetric Risk: 'N/A'
Support (Budget Loans): 'N/A'
Support (Ad Hoc): 'N/A'
Rating Cap (LT IDR): 'N/A'
Rating Cap (LT LC IDR) 'N/A'
Rating Floor: 'N/A'
Quantitative assumptions - Issuer Specific
Fitch's rating action is driven by the following assumptions for
reference metrics under its 2025-2029 rating case scenario.
- Payback ratio: 13.5 x in -2029;
- Actual debt service coverage ratio: 0.2x in 2029;
- Fiscal debt burden: 155.7% in 2029.
Fitch's through-the-cycle rating case incorporates a combination of
revenue, cost and financial risk stresses. It is based on 2020-2024
published figures and its expectations for 2025-2029:
- Operating revenues to grow at CAGR 23.8% in 2025-2029 (versus
60.6% yoy for 2020-2024 (due to expected high albeit declining
nominal GDP growth of 18.3% on average in 2025-2029);
- Tax revenue to grow at 25.0% CAGR in 2025-2029, versus 62.7% CAGR
in 2020-2024;
- Current transfers grow at 21.0% CAGR in in 2025-2029, versus
61.5% CAGR in 2020-2024;
- Operating expenses to grow by CAGR 22.5% in 2025-2029 (versus
69.4% yoy for 2020-2024 (due to expected high albeit declining
inflation of 21.1% on average in 2025-2029);
- Negative net capital balance of TRY1.8 billion in 2025-2029;
- Apparent cost of debt to be on average 34.1%, below the average
cost of debt in 2024 based on the expected decline in policy
rates.
Issuer Profile
Located in the Marmara region of Turkiye, Balikesir is a mid-sized
metropolitan municipality with 1.3 million residents, or nearly
1.5% of the national population. With a GDP per capita of TRY
259,858, it represents 84% of the national average and contributes
1.2% to the national GDP. Balikesir was the 16th largest city by
GDP contribution in 2023.
The local economy is fairly diversified, with agriculture-based
industry (36.9%) leading, followed by services (27.6%), public
administration, education, health, and social work (13.5%),
agriculture (12.8%), and real estate activities (5.4%).
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A payback ratio above 15x on a sustained basis in its rating
scenario could lead to a downgrade of Balikesir's IDRs.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A payback ratio below 9x on a sustained basis in its rating-case
scenario could lead to an upgrade of Balikesir's IDRs
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Discussion Note
Committee date: May 28, 2025
There was an appropriate quorum at the committee and the members
confirmed that they were free from recusal. It was agreed that the
data was sufficiently robust relative to its materiality. During
the committee no material issues were raised that were not in the
original committee package. The main rating factors under the
relevant criteria were discussed by the committee members. The
rating decision as discussed in this rating action commentary
reflects the committee's discussion.
Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings
Balikesir's ratings are credit-linked to Turkiye's ratings
(BB-/Stable).
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Balikesir Metropolitan
Municipality LT IDR B+ New Rating
ST IDR B New Rating
LC LT IDR B+ New Rating
LC ST IDR B New Rating
Natl LT A+(tur) New Rating
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
AMLO BIOSCIENCES: Grant Thornton Named as Administrators
--------------------------------------------------------
AMLO Biosciences Limited was placed into administration proceedings
in the High Court Of Justice, Insolvency & Companies List, No
000635 of 2025, and Christopher J Petts and James E Hichens of
Grant Thornton UK Advisory & Tax LLP, were appointed as
administrators on June 25, 2025.
AMLO Biosciences specialized in technical testing and analysis.
Its registered office is c/o Grant Thornton UK Advisory & Tax LLP,
11th Floor, Landmark St Peter's Square, 1 Oxford St, Manchester, M1
4PB
Its principal trading address is at Office 9, The Biosphere,
Drayman's Way, Newcastle, N34 5BX
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Christopher J Petts
Grant Thornton UK Advisory & Tax LLP
Rotterdam House, 116 Quayside
Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, NE1 3DY
Tel No: 0191 261 2631
-- and --
James E Hichens
Grant Thornton UK Advisory & Tax LLP
No 1 Whitehall Riverside, Whitehall Road
Leeds, LS1 4BN
Tel No: 0113 245 5514
For further details, contact:
CMU Support
Grant Thornton UK Advisory & Tax LLP
Rotterdam House, 116 Quayside
Newcastle-Upon-Tyne, NE1 3DY
Email: cmusupport@uk.gt.com
Tel No: 0161 953 6906
BH KNIGHTSBRIDGE: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------------
BH Knightsbridge Ltd was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts of England
and Wales, Court Number: CR-2025-004302, and Michael Kiely and
Andrew Andronikou of Quantuma Advisory Limited were appointed as
administrators on June 25, 2025.
BH Knightsbridge engaged in the buying and selling of own real
estate.
Its registered office is at 66 St. Jame's Street, London, SW1A 1NE
and it is in the process of being changed to c/o Quantuma Advisory
Limited, 7th Floor, 20 St. Andrew Street, London, EC4A 3AG
Its principal trading address is at 45 – 47 Beaufort Gardens,
London, SW3 1PN.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Michael Kiely
Andrew Andronikou
Quantuma Advisory Limited
7th Floor, 20 St. Andrew Street
London, EC4A 3AG
For further details, contact:
Darren Habgood
Tel No: 020 3856 6720
Email: darren.habgood@quantuma.com
FINSBURY SQUARE 2025-1: Fitch Assigns B+(EXP) Rating on Cl. F Debt
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Finsbury Square 2025-1 PLC (FSQ25-1)
expected ratings.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Finsbury Square
2025-1 PLC
A XS3073599014 LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
B XS3073599873 LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
C XS3073600044 LT A(EXP)sf Expected Rating
D XS3073600390 LT BBB+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
E XS3073600986 LT BBB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
F XS3073601018 LT B+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
G XS3073601281 LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Z XS3073601521 LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Transaction Summary
FSQ25-1 will be a static securitisation of owner-occupied (OO) and
buy-to-let (BTL) mortgage loans originated by Kensington Mortgage
Company Ltd (KMC). The portfolio consists of new originations and
loans that were previously securitised in KMC transactions under
the Finsbury Square and Gemgarto RMBS shelf programmes, which were
rated by Fitch.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Mixed Specialist Prime Originations: The pool will consist of new
and seasoned OO and BTL loans, with about 72% originated before
2023. This results in a Fitch-calculated weighted average (WA)
sustainable loan-to-value (sLTV) of 80.3%, a WA indexed current
loan-to-value (CLTV) of 71.3%, a WA debt-to-income ratio of 32.6%
and a WA interest coverage ratio of 90.7%. KMC takes a manual
underwriting approach, targeting borrowers that may not meet the
criteria of high-street lenders' automated scorecard models. This
approach attracts a higher proportion of first-time buyers,
self-employed individuals and borrowers with adverse credit
histories than typical prime UK OO lenders.
To account for this, Fitch has applied a transaction adjustment of
1.2x to foreclosure frequency (FF) for the prime OO loans,
factoring in the performance of KMC's OO book data and prior
transactions. A 1.1x transaction adjustment was also applied to FF
for the BTL loans, reflecting the historical performance of KMC's
BTL book data and previous transactions.
Negative Selection, High Arrears: The loans in the portfolio have
not been selected randomly and include those with high indexed CLTV
(85% and above), representing 23% of the portfolio, and loans in
arrears (22.2%, with 10.9% in late-stage arrears). Late-stage
arrears have been increasing in KMC's book, due partly to a
Mortgage Charter application slowing repossession, and in previous
KMC securitisations, as eligible borrowers switch products at the
end of their fixed-rate period, leading to a concentration of
weaker borrowers.
Ratings Below Model-Implied Levels: The ratings of the class B to F
notes have been constrained one notch below their model-implied
ratings. This reflects limited headroom at their model-implied
rating levels and the potential for further deterioration in the
performance of the collateral pool due to negative selection,
future loan reversions and cost-of-living challenges across the UK,
stretching borrower affordability. It also factors in the
increasing arrears and a possible rise in WAFF.
Alternative Prepayment Rates, Hedging Schedule: At closing, 96.2%
of the loans will pay a fixed interest rate (reverting to
floating), while the notes will pay a SONIA-linked, floating rate.
The issuer will enter into a swap at closing to mitigate the
interest rate risk arising from the fixed-rate mortgages in the
pool. The swap features a notional balance based on the projected
amortisation profile of the fixed-rate loans, which could lead to
overhedging owing to higher defaults or prepayments and lower
available revenues in a decreasing interest rate scenarios.
Fixed-rate loans are subject to early repayment charges. The point
at which these loans are scheduled to revert from a fixed to the
relevant follow-on rate will likely determine the time of
prepayments. Fitch has, therefore, applied an alternative high
prepayment stress that tracks the fixed-rate reversion profile of
the pool. The prepayment rate applied is floored at 10% to 15% and
capped at a maximum rate of 40% a year.
Self-Employed Borrowers: Prime lenders assessing borrower
affordability typically require a minimum of two years of income
information and apply a two-year average, or, if income is
declining, the lower income amount. KMC's underwriting practices
permit underwriters' discretion in using the latest year's income
if it is going up. Fitch, therefore, applied an increase of 30% to
FF for self-employed borrowers with verified income, instead of the
20% increase typically applied under its UK RMBS Rating Criteria to
the OO sub-pool only. Self-employed borrowers constitute 37.1% of
the OO sub-pool and 56% of the total pool.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The transaction's performance may be affected by changes in market
conditions and the economic environment. Weakening economic
performance is strongly correlated to rising levels of
delinquencies and defaults that could reduce the credit enhancement
available to the notes. In addition, unexpected declines in
recoveries could result in lower net proceeds, which may make some
notes' ratings susceptible to negative rating action, depending on
the extent of the decline in recoveries.
Fitch found that a 15% increase in the WAFF and a 15% decrease in
the WA recovery rate (RR) would lead to downgrades of one notch for
the class A notes, two notches each for the class B and C notes,
three notches on the class D notes and four notches on the class E
notes. The class F notes would be assigned distressed ratings in
this scenario.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stable-to-improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies
and defaults would lead to increasing credit enhancement levels and
consideration for upgrades. Fitch found a decrease in the WAFF of
15% and an increase in the WARR of 15% would lead to upgrades of up
to one notch for the class B notes, four notches for the class C
notes and more than one rating category each for the class D to F
notes. The class A notes are at the highest achievable rating on
Fitch's scale and cannot be upgraded.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch reviewed the results of a third-party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information and concluded that there were no
findings that affected the rating analysis.
Fitch conducted a review of a small, targeted sample of the
originator's origination files and found the information contained
in the reviewed files to be adequately consistent with the
originator's policies and practices and the other information
provided to the agency about the asset portfolio.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for its analysis
according to its applicable rating methodologies indicates that it
is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
GUID3D LIMITED: CBW Recovery Named as Administrators
----------------------------------------------------
Guid3d Limited was placed into administration proceedings in the
High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts of England and
Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number:
CR-2025-004397, and Joseph Colley of CBW Recovery LLP was appointed
as administrators on June 27, 2025.
Guid3d Limited, trading as Guided Home, engaged in business and
domestic software development.
Its registered office is at 20-22 Wenlock Road, London, N1 7GU
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Joseph Colley
CBW Recovery LLP
10 Lower Thames Street
London, EC3R 6AF
For further details, contact:
Alice Guyatt
CBW Recovery LLP
Email: Alice.Guyatt@cbwrecovery.co.uk
Tel No: 020 4581 7151
HERTFORD HOUSE: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------------------
Hertford House Ltd was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts of England
and Wales, Court Number: CR-2025-004303, and Michael Kiely and
Andrew Andronikou of Quantuma Advisory Limited were appointed as
administrators on June 25, 2025.
Hertford House engaged in the buying and selling of own real
estate.
Its registered office is at 66 St. Jame's Street, London, SW1A 1NE
and it is in the process of being changed to c/o Quantuma Advisory
Limited, 7th Floor, 20 St. Andrew Street, London, EC4A 3AG
Its principal trading address is at 12 – 13 Hertford Street,
London, W1J 7RW
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Michael Kiely
Andrew Andronikou
Quantuma Advisory Limited
7th Floor, 20 St. Andrew Street
London, EC4A 3AG
For further details, contact:
Darren Habgood
Email: darren.habgood@quantuma.com
Tel No: 020 3856 6720
NCP CROWES: McTear Williams Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------------
NCP Crowes Holdings Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice, Court Number:
CR-2025-003977, and Jo Watts and Andrew McTear of McTear Williams &
Wood Limited were appointed as administrators on June 24, 2025.
NCP Crowes specialized in printing.
The Company's registered office and principal trading address is at
Unit 3 Drayton Industrial Estate, Taverham Road, Drayton, Norwich,
NR8 6RL.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Jo Watts
Andrew McTear
McTear Williams & Wood Limited
Prospect House, Rouen Road
Norwich, NR1 1RE
Enquiries should be sent to:
McTear Williams & Wood Limited
Prospect House, Rouen Road
Norwich, NR1 1RE
Tel: 01603 877540
Fax: 01603 877549
Email: jennyrandell@mw-w.com
NORTHERN CIVILS: Leonard Curtis Named as Administrators
-------------------------------------------------------
Northern Civils Ltd was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts in
Manchester, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number:
CR-2025-MAN-000911, and Andrew Poxon and Andrew Knowles of Leonard
Curtis were appointed as administrators on June 25, 2025.
Northern Civils engaged in construction and groundwork services.
The Company's registered office is at 21 Hollowgate, Rotherham,
England, S60 2LE
Its principal trading is at 19 Bookers Way, Dinnington, Sheffield
S25 3SH
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Andrew Knowles
Andrew Poxon
Leonard Curtis
Riverside House
Irwell Street
Manchester, M3 5EN
For further details, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel No: 0161 831 9999
Email: recovery@leonardcurtis.co.uk
Alternative contact:
Joe Thompson
PROTOCOL NATIONAL: Grant Thornton Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------------------
Protocol National Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in The High Court of Justice, Business & Property
Courts In Leeds, Insolvency & Companies List Chd, No 000630 of
2025, and Jason Bell and Philip Stephenson (IP No. 22810) of Grant
Thornton UK Advisory & Tax LLP were appointed as administrators on
June 24, 2025.
Protocol National engaged in educational support services.
The Company's registered office is at 11th Floor, Landmark St
Peter's Square, 1 Oxford St, Manchester, M1 4PB.
Its principal trading address is at The Point, Welbeck Road, West
Bridgford, Nottingham, NG2 7QW.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Philip Stephenson
Grant Thornton UK LLP
11th Floor
Landmark St Peter's Square
1 Oxford St
Manchester M1 4PB
Tel No: 0161 953 6900
-- and --
Jason Bell
Grant Thornton UK Advisory & Tax LLP
11th Floor, Landmark St Peter's Square
1 Oxford St
Manchester M1 4PB
Tel No: 0161 953 6900
For further details, contact:
CMU Support
Grant Thornton UK LLP
Tel No: 0161 953 6906
Email: cmusupport@uk.gt.com
11th Floor, Landmark St Peter's Square
1 Oxford St
Manchester M1 4PB
SURF BRISTOL: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------
Surf Bristol Limited was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts Court
Number: CR-2025-004343, and Asher Miller and Stephen Katz of
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP were appointed as administrators on
June 26, 2025.
Surf Bristol engaged in sports activities.
Its registered office is at Pearl Assurance House, 319 Ballards
Lane, London, N12 8LY.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Asher Miller
Stephen Katz
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
Pearl Assurance House
319 Ballards Lane
London, N12 8LY
Any person who requires further information may contact
Matthew Hull
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
Email: MH-Team@btguk.com
Telephone: 020 8343 5900
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
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Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.
Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754.
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