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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Tuesday, May 27, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 105
Headlines
F R A N C E
AIR FRANCE: Fitch Assigns BB Final Rating on EUR500MM Hybrid Notes
I R E L A N D
ARES EUROPEAN XXII: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)sf' Rating on Cl. F Notes
GLENBROOK PARK: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating on Cl. F-R Notes
I T A L Y
INTER MEDIA: Fitch Puts B+ Notes Rating Under Criteria Observation
K A Z A K H S T A N
KYRGYZSTAN: Fitch Assigns 'B' Rating on Global MTN Programme
MOGO KAZAKHSTAN: Fitch Assigns 'B-' LongTerm IDRs, Outlook Stable
P O L A N D
GLOBE TRADE: Fitch Lowers LongTerm IDR to 'BB', On Watch Negative
INPOST SA: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDRs to 'BB+', Outlook Stable
S W E D E N
POLESTAR AUTOMOTIVE: 2024 Net Loss Widens to $2 Billion
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
ALDBROOK MORTGAGE 2025-1: Fitch Assigns BB+(EXP) Rating on E Notes
AMBX LIMITED: FRP Advisory Named as Administrators
BBOXX LTD: PKF Littlejohn Named as Administrators
BRADFIELD ROAD: Leonard Curtis Named as Administrators
CORBYN CONSTRUCTION: FRP Advisory Named as Administrators
CORRE ENERGY: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
LIP SYNC: Oury Clark Named as Administrators
LW&P (BICKNACRE): Forvis Mazars Named as Administrators
MARGREITER LIMITED: Marshall Peters Named as Administrators
RANDALL WATTS: MHA Advisory Named as Administrators
REGENT QUARTER: Leonard Curtis Named as Administrators
SKYBRIDGE UK: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
WHEEL BIDCO: Fitch Lowers IDR to 'C' on Distressed Debt Exchange
WMS ENTRANCE: Booth & Co Named as Administrators
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F R A N C E
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AIR FRANCE: Fitch Assigns BB Final Rating on EUR500MM Hybrid Notes
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Fitch Ratings has assigned Air France KLM's (AF-KLM; BBB-/Stable)
EUR500 million perpetual hybrids a final rating of 'BB'. The
perpetual hybrids qualify for 50% equity credit and are rated two
notches below AF-KLM's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR), which
Fitch affirmed on May 15, 2025.
AF-KLM's rating reflects its recent performance and its
expectations of improving margins after some cost challenges in
2024 driven by broadly stable demand, increasing cost efficiency
and lower oil prices. Fitch therefore forecasts that the group will
maintain EBITDAR net leverage below 2.5x, in line with the rating
sensitivities.
The IDR also incorporates the company's strong market position,
full-service offering, complementary aircraft maintenance (MRO) and
cargo businesses, strong hub positions and sound growth strategy.
Key Rating Drivers
Stabilised Operating Performance: AF-KLM reported a 2024 EBITDAR
margin of 13.6%, down from 14.3% in 2023, reflecting the unit cost
increase, primarily at KLM's Schiphol hub. However, in the last
part of 2024 and 1Q25 the trend reversed, especially due to
improved labour productivity. For 2025 Fitch expects EBITDAR of
EUR4.9 billion, and the EBITDAR margin to rise to 14.5%, driven by
lower fuel costs (most of which are locked through hedges), a
slight improvement in yields and a small increase of about 2% in
unit costs (excluding fuel). Fitch believes some softness on
transatlantic routes could be offset by growth in other regions.
In the medium term, Fitch forecasts revenues to grow at around
mid-single digits, driven by growth in deployed capacity and stable
load factors, with the EBITDAR margin gradually improving to around
16% by 2027.
Stable Net Leverage: Fitch expects average EBITDAR net leverage of
2.2x over 2025-2028, consistent with a 'BBB-' rating and broadly in
line with the company's financial policy, targeting net debt/EBITDA
between 1.5x and 2.0x. Fitch considers the publicly stated
financial policy consistent with its rating sensitivities as a key
rating driver.
Moderate Growth Plans: Fitch assumes average net annual capex of
EUR3.7 billion in 2025-2028, with lease-adjusted net debt gradually
rising to above EUR12 billion in 2028 (around EUR10.8 billion in
2024). AF-KLM had 191 aircraft on order at end-2024 (vs fleet of
574 aircraft at the same date), with most meant for replacement,
increasing the share of more efficient new-generation aircraft in
the fleet.
Active Participant in European Consolidation: Fitch believes AF-KLM
remains interested in TAP, the Portuguese air carrier following
AF-KLM's acquisition of a 19.9% stake in the restructured SAS AB,
although Fitch foresees strong competition from other airlines.
However, Fitch expects potential acquisitions to be limited to a
minority stake, limiting the impact on metrics.
Adequate Financial Flexibility: EBITDAR-based fixed-charge coverage
ratios are weak for the rating at 1.7x. However, Fitch sees this as
largely due to the higher proportion of leased debt (with
relatively short tenor) in the capital structure. Fitch expects
this metric to improve to around 2.0x by 2028 and believe the weak
coverage ratio is offset by healthy liquidity, available
unencumbered assets and a well-monitored financial policy.
Hybrid Assigned 50% Equity Credit: AF-KLM's perpetual hybrid
qualifies for 50% equity credit with a two-notch lower rating than
AF-KLM's IDR based on the terms of the instrument. It has been
issued at the parent company and is a deeply subordinated
instrument with optional cumulative coupon deferral and an
effective maturity at the second coupon step-up date (at least
20.25 years from the issue date).
Standalone Approach: Fitch referenced the French government when
applying its Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria given its
stronger presence in AF-KLM's equity than the Dutch government.
Fitch sees 'Strong' Precedents of Support, but Fitch assesses all
other factors as 'Weak' (Decision Making and Oversight,
Preservation of Government Policy Role and Contagion Risk).
Therefore, Fitch rates AF-KLM on a standalone basis. Fitch views
the significant aid package that the company received during the
pandemic as an exceptional event caused by extreme market
conditions, which also led to a temporary relaxation of the EU's
approach towards state aid.
Solid Business Profile: AF-KLM is the flagship carrier for France
and the Netherlands, connecting over 300 destinations in about 120
countries at end-December 2024. This puts AF-KLM among the top
three carriers in Europe and the top 10 carriers globally. AF-KLM
operates through Charles De Gaulle in Paris (for Air France) and
Schiphol in Amsterdam (for KLM), which are among the top five
airports in Europe and benefit from large and wealthy catchment
areas for leisure and business travel. AF-KLM is one of the
founding members of the SkyTeam alliance, which has the
second-largest market share on the lucrative North Atlantic
routes.
Diversified Aviation Offering: AF-KLM is a full-service carrier,
including large low-cost carrier Transavia (with 115 aircraft),
which enables it to compete to an extent with large European
low-cost carriers and tap European leisure-related demand. AF-KLM
also runs a large maintenance, repair and overhaul business with
external revenues of EUR2.1 billion in 2024. It aims to grow market
share through a new JV with Airbus regarding A350 components. The
group's air cargo business contributes about 6% of group revenue
and adds to the diversification of its revenue streams.
Peer Analysis
AF-KLM is the second-largest EMEA airline group, behind Deutsche
Lufthansa AG (BBB-/Stable) by fleet size. Both companies benefit
from a strong position in passenger, cargo and MRO businesses but
Lufthansa remains the leader in each. The companies have the same
debt capacity, while the same rating reflects similar business
profiles and slightly higher leverage for AF-KLM.
AF-KLM's business profile compares well with those of International
Consolidated Airlines Group S.A., British Airways Plc (BBB Stable),
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (BBB-/Stable), Alaska Air Group Inc.
(BB+/Stable) and American Airlines Group Inc. (B+/Stable) and the
difference in ratings is primarily driven by their financial
profiles.
Compared to Turk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi (Turkish Airlines;
BB/Stable; Standalone Credit Profile bb), which has a broadly
similar business profile, AF-KLM benefits from more stable home
market conditions as well as lower exposure to foreign-currency
movements.
Ryanair Holdings plc (BBB+/Stable), which is also among the top
five European carriers by fleet size, has limited comparability
with AF-KLM due to its ultra low-cost carrier model, narrow body
only fleet and absence of long-haul services,
Key Assumptions
- Annual group network capacity up mid-single percentage in 2025
yoy and about 3.5% a year growth thereafter
- Broadly stable load factors for 2025-2028
- Yields up 0%-1% during the forecast period
- Unit cost (excluding fuel) increase of 1%-2% over the forecast
period
- Oil price of USD75/bbl in 2025 and broadly steady thereafter
- EUR365 million one-off payment in 2025 resulting from the claim
on the cargo business and a EUR520 million exceptional wage tax and
social charges cash payments
- Capex (net of sale and lease-back) totalling about EUR15 billion
in 2025-2028, or EUR3.7 billion on average a year
- Perpetual bonds issued by dedicated operating subsidiaries in
2022 and 2023 and accounted for as equity in the group's financial
statements; i.e. EUR497 million issued by the spare engines
subsidiary (July 2022), EUR498 million issued by the maintenance
subsidiary (July 2023) and EUR1,493 million issued by the Flying
Blue Miles subsidiary (November 2023) are treated as financial debt
with no equity credit
- 50% equity credit to the planned EUR500 million hybrid
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- EBITDAR margin falling consistently below 12%
- EBITDAR net leverage above 2.5x and EBITDAR leverage above 3.6x
- EBITDAR fixed-charge coverage below 1.5x on a sustained basis
- A negative change in the company's financial policy to a level no
longer commensurate with its sensitivities for an investment-grade
rating
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- EBITDAR margin sustained above 20%
- EBITDAR net leverage below 1.5x and EBITDAR leverage below 2.5x
- Assessment of stronger links with the French state
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-December 2024, AF-KLM had cash and cash equivalents of
EUR7.3 billion and committed and undrawn general facilities were
EUR2.4 billion. This compares well with short-term debt maturities
of about EUR1 billion (excluding leases) and negative FCF expected
in 2025. The group issued EUR500 million senior unsecured bonds in
2024 and the EUR500 million perpetual subordinated hybrids will be
used to refinance some of the existing hybrid instruments.
AF-KLM's liquidity policy has been defined as minimum consolidated
liquidity (cash in hand, marketable securities and available
committed facilities) at EUR6 billion-8 billion to 2028. This is in
line with peers' liquidity policies defined as a percentage (around
20%) of last 12 months revenue. The well-defined liquidity policy
and the large amount of cash on balance (which inflates gross debt)
are key drivers for us to assess leverage on a net basis,
notwithstanding the sector's cyclical volatility.
Issuer Profile
AF-KLM is the second-largest EMEA airline by 2024 revenues,
benefiting from one of the most diversified sources of revenues
among EMEA peers thanks to its passenger, cargo and maintenance
businesses mostly in Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific.
Date of Relevant Committee
09 May 2025
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
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Air France KLM
Subordinated LT BB New Rating BB(EXP)
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I R E L A N D
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ARES EUROPEAN XXII: Fitch Assigns 'B-(EXP)sf' Rating on Cl. F Notes
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Fitch Ratings has assigned Ares European CLO XXII DAC debt expected
ratings.
The assignment of final ratings is contingent on the receipt of
final documents conforming to information already reviewed.
Entity/Debt Rating
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Ares European
CLO XXII DAC
A LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
B-1 LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
B-2 LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
C LT A(EXP)sf Expected Rating
D LT BBB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
E LT BB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
F LT B-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Subordinated Notes LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Transaction Summary
Ares European CLO XXII DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior
secured obligations (at least 90%) with a component of senior
unsecured, mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield bonds. Note
proceeds will be used to fund a portfolio with a target par of
EUR400 million. The portfolio is actively managed by Ares
Management Limited. The collateralised loan obligation (CLO) will
have a reinvestment period of about 4.5 years and a seven-year
weighted average life (WAL) test at closing. The transaction can
extend the WAL by 1.0 years on or after the step-up date, which is
1.0 year after closing, subject to conditions.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch places the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch weighted
average rating factor (WARF) of the identified portfolio is 24.6.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio (if the class A investor condition is satisfied;
otherwise 96%) will comprise senior secured obligations. Fitch
views the recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable
than for second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch
weighted average recovery rate (WARR) of the identified portfolio
is 62%.
Diversified Asset Portfolio (Positive): The transaction will
include various concentration limits, including a fixed-rate
obligation limit of 10%, a top 10 obligor concentration limit of
16%, and a maximum exposure to the three largest Fitch-defined
industries of 40%. These covenants ensure the asset portfolio will
not be exposed to excessive concentration.
WAL Step-Up Feature (Neutral): The transaction can extend the WAL
by 1.0 years on or after the step-up date, which is 1.0 years after
closing. The WAL extension is subject to the collateral quality
tests being passed and the collateral principal amount (defaults at
Fitch-calculated collateral value) being at least equal to the
reinvestment target par balance.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction will have a
reinvestment period of about 4.5 years and will be governed by
reinvestment criteria that are similar to those of other European
transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on a stressed-case
portfolio, with the aim of testing the robustness of the
transaction structure against its covenants and portfolio
guidelines.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL used for the transaction's
Fitch-stressed portfolio analysis was reduced by 12 months. This is
to account for the strict reinvestment conditions envisaged after
the reinvestment period. These include passing the coverage tests
and the Fitch 'CCC' maximum limit after reinvestment and a WAL
covenant that progressively steps down over time after the end of
the reinvestment period. In Fitch's opinion, these conditions would
reduce the effective risk horizon of the portfolio during stress
periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) and a 25% decrease of
the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of the identified
portfolio would lead to downgrades of no more than one notch each
for the class C and D notes and would have no impact on all other
tranches.
Based on the identified portfolio, downgrades may occur if the loss
expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high default and portfolio deterioration. Due to the better metrics
and shorter life of the identified portfolio than the
Fitch-stressed portfolio, the class B, D, E and F notes each have a
rating cushion of two notches and the class C notes have a cushion
of one notch.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings of the
Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of up to four
notches each for the class A to D notes, and to below 'Bsf' for the
class E and F notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR and a 25% increase in the RRR
across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to
upgrades of up to two notches each for the notes, except for the
'AAAsf' rated debt.
During the reinvestment period, upgrades, which are based on the
Fitch-stressed portfolio, may occur on better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, enabling
the notes to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the
transaction's remaining life. After the end of the reinvestment
period, upgrades may result from stable portfolio credit quality
and deleveraging, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
spread available to cover losses in the remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Most of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities have
ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other nationally
recognised statistical rating organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch and
other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio information or
information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Ares European CLO
XXII DAC.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
GLENBROOK PARK: Fitch Assigns 'B-sf' Final Rating on Cl. F-R Notes
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Fitch Ratings has assigned Glenbrook Park CLO DAC reset notes final
ratings.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
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Glenbrook Park CLO DAC
A XS2633754598 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AAAsf
A-R XS3067927924 LT AAAsf New Rating
B XS2633754754 LT PIFsf Paid In Full AAsf
B-R XS3067928146 LT AAsf New Rating
C XS2633754911 LT PIFsf Paid In Full Asf
C-R XS3067928492 LT Asf New Rating
D XS2633755132 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BBB-sf
D-R XS3067928658 LT BBB-sf New Rating
E XS2633755306 LT PIFsf Paid In Full BB-sf
E-R XS3067928815 LT BB-sf New Rating
F XS2633755561 LT PIFsf Paid In Full B-sf
F-R XS3067929037 LT B-sf New Rating
Transaction Summary
Glenbrook Park CLO DAC is a securitisation of mainly senior secured
obligations (at least 90%) with a component of senior unsecured,
mezzanine, second-lien loans and high-yield bonds. The transaction
has a target par of EUR350 million. The portfolio is actively
managed by Blackstone Ireland Limited. The collateralised loan
obligation (CLO) has a reinvestment period of about 4.4 years and
an 8.5-year weighted average life test (WAL).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Average Portfolio Credit Quality (Neutral): Fitch assesses the
average credit quality of obligors at 'B'/'B-'. The Fitch weighted
average rating factor (WARF) of the identified portfolio is 24.8.
High Recovery Expectations (Positive): At least 90% of the
portfolio comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the
recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable than for
second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
average recovery rate of the identified portfolio is 62.3%.
Diversified Portfolio (Positive): The transaction includes four
Fitch test matrices. Two matrices are effective at closing, and
correspond to a top 10 obligor concentration limit at 20%,
fixed-rate obligation limits at 5% and 12.5%, and an 8.5-year WAL
covenant. The two forward matrices correspond to the same top 10
obligors and fixed-rate obligation limits, and a 7.5-year WAL
covenant. The forward matrices are effective 12 months after
closing, provided that the collateral principal amount (defaults at
Fitch-calculated collateral value) is at least at the target par.
The transaction also includes various other covenants to ensure the
asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive concentration,
including a maximum exposure to the three largest Fitch-defined
industries at 40%.
Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction has a 4.4-year
reinvestment period and includes reinvestment criteria similar to
those of other European transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on
a stressed-case portfolio with the aim of testing the robustness of
the transaction structure against its covenants and portfolio
guidelines.
Cash Flow Modelling (Positive): The WAL used for the transaction's
matrix and the Fitch-stressed portfolio analysis is 12 months less
than the WAL covenant. This is to account for the strict
reinvestment conditions envisaged by the transaction after its
reinvestment period. These include passing both the coverage tests
and the Fitch 'CCC' bucket limitation test after the reinvestment
period, and a WAL covenant that progressively steps down over time
both during and after the reinvestment period. Fitch believes these
conditions would reduce the effective risk horizon of the portfolio
during stress periods.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A 25% increase of the mean default rate (RDR) and a 25% decrease of
the recovery rate (RRR) across all ratings of the identified
portfolio would have no impact on the class A-R to C-R notes but
would lead to downgrades of one notch each for the class D-R and
E-R notes and to below 'B-sf' for the class F-R notes.
Based on the identified portfolio, downgrades may occur if the loss
expectation is larger than initially assumed, due to unexpectedly
high levels of default and portfolio deterioration. Due to the
better metrics and shorter life of the identified portfolio than
the Fitch-stressed portfolio, the class B-R to F-R notes each have
a rating cushion of two notches and the class A-R notes have no
cushion.
Should the cushion between the identified portfolio and the
Fitch-stressed portfolio be eroded either due to manager trading or
negative portfolio credit migration, a 25% increase of the mean RDR
and a 25% decrease of the RRR across all ratings of the
Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to downgrades of up to four
notches each for the class A-R to D-R notes and to below 'B-sf' for
the class E-R and F-R notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A 25% reduction of the mean RDR and a 25% increase in the RRR
across all ratings of the Fitch-stressed portfolio would lead to
upgrades of up to three notches each for the notes, except for the
'AAAsf' rated notes, which are at the highest level on Fitch's
scale and cannot be upgraded.
Upgrades, which are based on the Fitch-stressed portfolio, may
occur during the reinvestment period on better-than-expected
portfolio credit quality and a shorter remaining WAL test, enabling
the notes to withstand larger-than-expected losses for the
remaining life of the transaction. After the end of the
reinvestment period, upgrades may result from stable portfolio
credit quality and deleveraging, leading to higher credit
enhancement and excess spread available to cover losses in the
remaining portfolio.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Most of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities have
ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for Glenbrook Park CLO
DAC reset notes.
In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in
connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme,
instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a
key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant
rating action commentary.
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I T A L Y
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INTER MEDIA: Fitch Puts B+ Notes Rating Under Criteria Observation
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Fitch Ratings has placed Inter Media and Communication S.p.A.'s
senior secured fixed-rate notes rating of 'B+ with a Stable Outlook
Under Criteria Observation (UCO). This action follows the
publication of Fitch's revised 'Sports Finance Rating Criteria' on
May 19, 2025.
RATING RATIONALE
Fitch will require additional information and analysis to fully
assess the effect of the criteria revision on the ratings. Not all
ratings placed UCO will necessarily change. Placement on the UCO
list does not indicate a change in the issuer's underlying credit
profile and does not affect existing Rating Outlooks or Rating
Watches. Fitch will review all the UCO ratings as soon as
practicable but no later than six months after the date of the
criteria release.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Key Criteria Changes: Fitch has adopted a global approach for
rating sports teams and franchises. Fitch has removed the
Europe-specific section and related subfactors from the criteria's
Key Rating Driver table. Fitch has also incorporated brand
recognition and franchise value into the overall Revenue Risk -
Franchise Strength assessment.
Fitch has updated the financial metric indicative guidance tables
to include key revenue risk rating drivers specific to each sports
sector. This establishes debt service coverage and leverage ranges
for each rating category. The updated tables introduce 'A' category
financial metrics for facilities, which were previously unlikely to
achieve such ratings, allowing lower coverage in the 'BBB' category
than was previously possible. Fitch will use the highest scoring
revenue risk Key Rating Driver to determine financial metric
ranges. Other considerations like debt structure, infrastructure
renewal and contractually obligated income levels will continue to
influence credit metrics.
The criteria now include facilities that derive a substantial share
of revenues from concerts and other entertainment events, even if
they do not have an anchor tenant.
Expected Impact: Fitch expects the impact of these criteria changes
on sports rating to be positive or neutral.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
The resolution of the UCO will depend on Fitch's evaluation of each
issuer's KRD assessments based on the revisions outlined above.
Existing issuer rating sensitivities remain unchanged until the UCO
resolution.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
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Inter Media and
Communication S.p.A.
Inter Media and
Communication S.p.A.
/Project Revenues –
Senior Secured
Debt/1 LT LT B+ Under Criteria Observation B+
===================
K A Z A K H S T A N
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KYRGYZSTAN: Fitch Assigns 'B' Rating on Global MTN Programme
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Fitch Ratings has assigned Kyrgyzstan's global medium-term note
(MTN) programme a 'B' rating.
The authorities intend to use proceeds from the issue of notes
under the programme for general budgetary purposes, including
financing hydroelectric power projects.
Key Rating Drivers
The rating of the MTN programme is in line with Kyrgyzstan's
Long-Term IDRs of 'B' to reflect that the notes under the programme
will represent a direct, general, unconditional, unsubordinated
obligation of Kyrgyzstan and will rank pari passu with all other
senior unsecured obligations.
The MTN programme allows borrowing across any tenors and
currencies, offering options for fixed or floating interest rates
or zero-coupon notes, all in the form of senior unsecured,
unsubordinated debt notes.
The following ESG issues represent key rating drivers for the
proposed MTN programme; other key rating drivers can be found in
the issuer rating action commentary, dated 24 April 2025.
ESG - Governance: Kyrgyzstan has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5'
for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law,
Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption.
These scores reflect the high weight that the WBGI have in its
proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Kyrgyzstan has a low WBGI
ranking at 21.2, reflecting repeated leadership changes, lagging
institutional capacity, uneven application of the rule of law and a
high level of corruption.
The rating on the proposed programme is sensitive to any changes in
Kyrgyzstan's Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR, which has the
following rating sensitivities (as per the rating action commentary
referenced above).
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- External Finances: A sustained decline in international reserves,
for example, as a result of reduced remittances, disruptions to
regional trade, and/or the inability to secure financing from
official and commercial creditors.
- Public Finances: A significant rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio in
the medium term, for example, due to sustained fiscal slippage or
large increase in contingent liabilities.
- Structural Features: Marked deterioration in political stability,
particularly if this leads to external financing strains and/or a
material weakening of medium-term growth prospects.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- External Finances: Reduction in external vulnerabilities, for
example, through significant accumulation of foreign-exchange
reserves and reductions in structural current account deficits.
- Public Finances: A material reduction in government debt, for
example, due to sustained revenue mobilisation.
- Structural Features/Macro: A sustained improvement in governance
standards and political stability that facilitate the
diversification of the economy, enabling substantial increase in
GDP per capita.
ESG Considerations
The ESG profile is in line with that of Kyrgyzstan.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Kyrgyzstan
senior unsecured LT B New Rating
MOGO KAZAKHSTAN: Fitch Assigns 'B-' LongTerm IDRs, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Microfinance Organization Mogo
Kazakhstan LLP (MK) Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Long-Term
Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of 'B-'. The Outlooks are Stable.
Fitch has also assigned MK a National Long-Term Rating of 'B+(kaz)'
with a Stable Outlook.
Key Rating Drivers
Small Franchise: MK's ratings reflect its small franchise, monoline
business model with a focus on used car-backed micro-loans (80% of
total loan portfolio at end-2024), high credit risk, significant
foreign-exchange (FX) risk and asset-liability mismatches. The
ratings also factor in the benefits of lending exclusively in local
currency backed by standard and liquid collateral with adequate
loan-to-value ratios (LTV) and increasing diversification of
funding sources.
Monoline Business: MK is a Kazakhstan-based micro-lending
organisation operating under the Jet Finance brand. It operates
mostly in secured loans to underbanked clients with limited credit
history and backed mostly by used cars. MK's franchise is small,
with a total loan portfolio equivalent to about USD28 million at
end-2024. Fitch believes its small size exposes the company to
significant competitive pressure from larger players, potentially
pushing the company to even riskier segments. However, MK benefits
from scalable digital business model with most loans issued online
and approved by its proprietary scorecard.
Seasoning Risk: Rapid loan portfolio growth of 133% in 2024 and
116% in 2023 and the impaired loans ratio increasing to 17% by
end-2024 from 11% a year earlier indicate high seasoning risks.
Provisioning of impaired loans weakened to 46% at end-2024 compared
with 132% a year earlier. These risks are mitigated by the secured
nature of lending that is only in local currency, adequate LTVs and
a relatively liquid market for cars.
Adequate Profitability: MK's profitability is supported by wide
margins, reflective of its business model, which targets higher
risk borrowers. However, the net interest margin weakened to (a
still strong) 15% in 2024 from 22% in 2023. The cost/income ratio
also weakened to 59% in 2024 from 55% in 2023. Pre-tax
income/average assets ratios improved to 6.6% in 2024 (2023: 6.2%),
which indicates lower provisioning of impaired loans.
High Share of Commission Income: Non-interest income accounted for
about 30% of total gross income in 2024. This primarily relates to
referral commissions from insurance policies bundled with lending
products. These are primarily generated at inception of the loan
and Fitch expects this to moderate once growth moderates.
Significant FX Risk: MK has a high share of unhedged foreign
currency funding (in euros and US dollars) accounting for about 70%
of debt at end-2024. A sharp depreciation of local currency could
threaten the company's solvency given all lending is in local
currency. The debt/tangible equity ratio was 3.7x at end-2024 (3.6x
at end-2023) and was supported by a substantial equity injection of
KZT2.8 billion (USD5.3 million equivalent) in 2024 and strong
internal capital generation. The quality of capital was compromised
by a sizable loan to a shareholder, but this was subsequently
repaid in 1Q25.
Diversifying Funding: MK has been diversifying its funding sources
by issuing domestic unsecured bonds. Local bonds accounted for 67%
of total debt at end-2024, but more than half of local bonds were
issued in US dollars, pursuing lower rates and longer maturities.
MK maintained minimal headroom on two covenants (capitalisation and
interest coverage) on financing from Mintos (32% of the total debt
at end-2024) exposing it to refinancing risk in case of a covenant
breach.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Deterioration of the company's capital position, for instance,
due to growth outpacing capital generation, loss from currency
depreciation or material receivables from related parties.
- Weakening profitability to a point of operational loss making,
for example, due to a sharp decline in the net interest margin, or
increase in credit or operating losses.
- Signs of funding access or refinancing difficulties.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Upside is limited by the company's risk profile and modest
franchise. Over the medium term, sustained growth of MK's scale
coupled with reduction of FX risk and proven control over the asset
quality could lead to an upgrade.
ADJUSTMENTS
The business profile score has been assigned above the implied
score due to the following adjustment reason(s): historical and
future developments (positive).
The asset quality score has been assigned above the implied score
due to the following adjustment reason(s): collateral and reserves
(positive).
The earnings & profitability score has been assigned below the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason(s): historical
and future metrics (negative), Portfolio risk (negative).
The capitalization & leverage score has been assigned below the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason(s): size of
capital base (negative), Risk profile and business model
(negative).
The funding, liquidity & coverage score has been assigned below the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason(s): funding
flexibility (negative), Foreign-currency liquidity (negative).
Date of Relevant Committee
13 May 2025
ESG Considerations
MK has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Customer Welfare given its
exposure to higher-risk underbanked borrowers with limited credit
history and variable incomes. This highlights social risks arising
from increased regulatory scrutiny and policies to protect more
vulnerable borrowers (such as lending caps) regarding its lending
practices, pricing transparency and consumer data protection. This
has a moderately negative impact on MK's credit profile and is
relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other factors.
MK has as ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Exposure to Social
Impacts. This reflects risks arising from a business model focused
on extending credit at high rates, which could give rise to
potential consumer and public disapproval, as well as to potential
regulatory changes and conduct-related risks that could impact the
company's franchise and performance metrics. This has a moderately
negative impact on MK's credit profile and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.
MK has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for Governance Structure. This
reflects developing corporate governance evidenced in material
related party transactions and has a moderately negative impact on
the credit profile and is relevant to the rating in conjunction
with other factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Microfinance
Organization
Mogo Kazakhstan LT IDR B- New Rating
ST IDR B New Rating
LC LT IDR B- New Rating
LC ST IDR B New Rating
Natl LT B+(kaz) New Rating
===========
P O L A N D
===========
GLOBE TRADE: Fitch Lowers LongTerm IDR to 'BB', On Watch Negative
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Globe Trade Centre S.A.'s (GTC)
Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured debt to
'BB' from 'BB+' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR4'. Fitch has placed
the ratings on Rating Watch Negative (RWN).
The downgrades reflect heightened refinancing risk on GTC's 2026
debt maturities, including its June 2026 EUR494 million bond. GTC
is working on debt refinancing options including asset disposals,
but selling assets takes time. Refinancing efforts are hindered by
the group's high leverage, which is not commensurate with the
previous 'BB+' ratings.
The RWN reflects execution risk related to repayment or extensions
of 2026 debt maturities and planned asset disposals. Previous debt
reduction options, including selling Kildare in Ireland and
residential assets in Germany (whereas GTC may incur net debt to
buy-out minorities), have delayed deleveraging. Fitch expects to
review the RWN in August 2025, before GTC's major bond maturity in
June 2026.
Key Rating Drivers
Increased Refinancing Risk: GTC plans to address its EUR754 million
(46% of gross debt) debt maturities in 2026 with a combination of
capital-market transactions, new secured funding, refinanced bank
loans, and asset disposals. GTC may prioritise any of these
initiatives subject to market conditions. Nevertheless, all require
time and are subject to execution risk. At end-2024, GTC owned
unencumbered income-producing properties in central and eastern
Europe (CEE) valued at about EUR600 million, plus landbank and
other assets, and EUR1 billion of properties subject to secured
financing at an average loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 49%.
Moderate Disposal Progress in CEE: In 4Q24, GTC sold the Matrix C
office in Zagreb, and in 1Q25 sold the GTC X office in Belgrade and
a land plot in Warsaw. Net disposal proceeds totalled EUR91
million, some of which will increase end-2024 EUR53 million cash.
Further progress with disposals will be slower and subject to
execution risk. This includes the Kildare investment, with a
balance sheet value of EUR119 million. Fitch continues to exclude
the Kildare disposal from its rating case.
Non-consolidated Analytical Approach: Fitch does not use GTC's
consolidated profile, including the ex-Peach residential-for-rent
portfolio (19% of the group's asset value), as the resulting
metrics would have no CEE-weighted peer with German residential to
compare. Instead, Fitch applies a 'BB' 18x net debt/rental-derived
EBITDA to the acquired Peach portfolio and adds any excess debt
(above 18x net debt/EBITDA) to GTC's commercial property profile.
Fitch can then compare GTC's resultant financial profile with 'BB'
peers and guidelines.
Leverage Reduction Contingent on Disposals: Fitch assumes delayed
residential disposals from the acquired Peach portfolio. To reflect
this, Fitch adds about EUR85 million-70 million of debt to GTC's
commercial property profile, which increases its net debt/EBITDA by
around 0.5x-0.8x. Fitch forecasts 2025's adjusted net debt/EBITDA
at 11.8x, falling to 10.5x in 2027, and to 9.0x in 2028 aided by
about EUR290 million planned disposal proceeds from CEE assets.
Deleveraging is helped by rent from new developments, EBITDA margin
improvement and gradual vacancy reduction.
Lower Interest Coverage: GTC commercial property profile's interest
cover falls to 1.9x in 2025 and 1.5x in 2026 (2024: 3.5x) when
Fitch allocates the German holdco acquisition funding's
post-interest expense shortfall to GTC's profile. Fitch deducts
these amounts from GTC's EBITDA, assuming delayed residential
disposals.
Negative Optima Newsflow: Fitch continues to rate GTC on a
standalone basis, even though the news regarding 63% shareholder
Optima Befektetsi Ltd's liquidity may hinder GTC's refinancing
efforts. GTC has separate operations, financing and treasury
functions, and no cross-default links. However, Fitch assumes
Optima will require dividends (as in 2024) despite GTC's management
intention to conserve its liquidity.
German ex-Peach Residential Portfolio: In December 2024, GTC
completed the acquisition of a EUR452 million (end-2024 value), a
residential-for-rent portfolio in secondary locations in Germany.
The portfolio comprises over 5,100 units, of which GTC plans to
sell 2,241 to repay acquisition funding. GTC is in discussions with
potential buyers, but any disposals, expected to commence in 4Q25,
require the internal restructuring to be completed. This includes
the total EUR46 million acquisition of minority interests, which
may be financed with net debt.
Expensive Acquisition Financing: The debt held at GTC's German
holding company (holdco) level, including a EUR190 million
five-year secured facility, is more expensive than the company's
debt. The planned EUR46 million payment for minorities' shares may
be funded from net debt. This would result in a post-rental
income-derived, post-interest expense annual shortfall of around
EUR11 million at the German holdco. This would be met from
residential disposal proceeds or a cash injection from GTC.
Persistent CEE Office Vacancies: The end-2024 occupancy rate in
GTC's office portfolio (52% of total portfolio value) was 82%
(end-2023: 84%). The highest vacancy rate was 26% in Poland, where
37% of GTC's office space is located. This was driven by continued
high vacancies in regional cities. Vacancy in Bucharest was 18%
(11% of space), 15% in Sofia (10%) and 14% in Budapest (38%).
Declining Office Rents: The average headline rent across the office
portfolio fell to EUR17.5 per square metres/month (3% down from
end-2023). Fitch expects negative re-leasing spreads to continue to
trend towards valuer's estimated rental values (ERVs) which at
end-2024 were below the actual average rents in most of GTC's
office portfolio. The office portfolio's weighted average lease
length (WALT) was 3.8 years until expiry, and shorter to earliest
break.
Stable Retail Assets Performance: GTC's five core malls (about 29%
of total portfolio value) perform well. 2024 footfall increased by
3% to almost 30 million visitors. The retail tenants' sales
increased by 10%. The average occupancy rate (end-2024: 96%) and
headline rent were stable (EUR22.4/square metres/month).
Peer Analysis
GTC's EUR2.4 billion portfolio is similar in size to the EUR2.5
billion office-focused portfolio of Globalworth Real Estate
Investments Limited (BBB-/Stable). NEPI Rockcastle N.V.'s
(BBB+/Stable) EUR6.9 billion retail-focused portfolio is over three
times larger. However, only GTC's portfolio benefits from
meaningful asset class diversification with offices (52% of market
value), retail (29%) and residential-for-rent in Germany (19%), as
underscored in its looser leverage rating sensitivities.
Peers' assets are all in CEE. By market value, 38% of GTC's CEE
income-producing assets are in Poland (A-/Stable), 5% in Croatia
(A-/Stable) and the rest in four countries rated in the 'BBB'
rating category or below. This results in an average country risk
exposure similar to that of NEPI, which is present in eight
countries, with around 40% of assets located in countries rated
'A-' or above. Globalworth's average country risk is similar but
its assets are almost equally split between Poland and Romania
(BBB-/Negative).
Fitch expects GTC's residential-adjusted net debt/EBITDA to remain
higher than peers. Adjusted for the residential-for-rent
portfolio's 'excess debt', Fitch forecasts leverage to decrease to
10.5x in 2027 from 11.8x in 2025. This compares negatively with
Globalworth's leverage at about 8.5x. NEPI's financial profile is
stronger than GTC's and Globalworth's.
Fitch believes that GTC's CEE portfolio quality is broadly similar
to that of Globalworth and NEPI, although not all CEE peers quote
directly comparable net initial yield data (annualised net
rents/investment property asset values).
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within Its Rating Case for the Issuer
Assumptions for the acquired Peach portfolio:
- Like-for-like, year-on-year rent increase at 3%, consistent with
Peach's historical performance and the regulated Mietspiegel and
Kappungsgrenze's rent frameworks; rental yield at 8% of capex for
the retained portfolio
- Initial operating expenditure including void costs at 30% of
gross rental income, improving in 2025 as voids decrease and rents
increase more than opex
- Debt including loans secured on residential assets, the EUR190
million acquisition funding, Fitch-assumed potential additional
debt incurred in 1H25 of EUR46 million to finance the buyout of
minorities, plus interest expense on additional debt funding for
the retained portfolio's tenant improvement capex
Assumptions for the GTC profile:
- Rental income modelled on an annualised rent basis
- Rental income to fluctuate, due to timing of disposals and
completed developments; average 1.5% like-for-like increase in rent
a year due to CPI indexation of leases and gradual improvement in
occupancy levels, partly offset by some rent decreases on lease
renewals
- Total committed and uncommitted capex of about EUR310 million
during 2025-2028
- Cash dividend payments made during 2025-2028
- About EUR290 million of cash proceeds related to income-producing
asset and land plots disposals in 2025-2028, not including proceeds
from sale of Kildare Innovation Campus in Ireland
- GTC's EUR500 million 2.25% coupon due June 2026 bond refinanced
by end-2025 (reduced to EUR450 million) at the current market's
higher rates
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Failure to address the June 2026 bond maturity by at least
end-July 2025, which may lead to a multi-notch downgrade to the 'B'
rating category
-Net debt/EBITDA above 11.5x
- EBITDA net interest coverage below 1.25x
- LTV above 60%
- Operating metric deterioration including occupancy below 90%,
weighted average lease term (including tenants' earliest breaks)
below three years and like-for-like rental decline
- Unencumbered investment property assets/unsecured debt below
1.25x
- 12-month liquidity score below 1.0x
- For notching down the senior unsecured rating: unencumbered
property assets/unsecured debt below 1.0x
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Net debt/EBITDA below 10.5x
- EBITDA net interest coverage above 1.5x
- Weighted average debt tenor above five years
- Unencumbered investment property assets/unsecured debt trending
towards 1.25x with no adverse selection
- An improved operating profile with longer WALT, like-for-like
rental growth and a group occupancy rate above 90%
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-2024, GTC's cash totalled about EUR53 million. Supported
with EUR91 million of 1Q25 disposal proceeds, this largely covers
EUR117 million of debt maturing in 2025, excluding the 1Q25
extension of a EUR101 million loan secured on Galeria Jurajska.
Most of 2025's scheduled debt maturities (about EUR100 million) are
loans secured on German residential assets that will mature at
end-3Q25. GTC is negotiating extension of these loans. The group
does not have a committed revolving credit facility as a liquidity
buffer.
In 1H26, EUR714 million of debt matures, including EUR494 million
of unsecured bond in June 2026.
GTC's unencumbered investment property assets/unsecured debt was
0.93x end-2024. If this ratio deteriorates further, Fitch may
downgrade GTC's senior unsecured rating relative to its IDR.
Issuer Profile
GTC is a property investment company that holds and develops assets
(office, retail and residential) in Poland, capital cities in CEE
(particularly Budapest, Bucharest, Belgrade, Zagreb and Sofia) and
Germany (residential-for-rent).
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Globe Trade
Centre S.A. LT IDR BB Downgrade BB+
senior unsecured LT BB Downgrade RR4 BB+
GTC Aurora
Luxembourg S.A.
senior unsecured LT BB Downgrade RR4 BB+
INPOST SA: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDRs to 'BB+', Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded InPost S.A.'s Long-Term Foreign- and
Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) to 'BB+' from 'BB' and
its National Long-Term Rating to 'BBB+(pol)' from 'BBB(pol)'. All
ratings are on Stable Outlook. It has also upgraded InPost's senior
unsecured rating to 'BB+' from 'BB'. The Recovery Rating is 'RR4'.
The upgrade reflects InPost's consistently solid EBITDA growth,
high EBITDA margins relative to peers and positive free cash flow
(FCF) before acquisitions, both historically and expected,
resulting in leverage metrics that are consistent with a 'BB+'
rating. The upgrade considers InPost's increasing diversification
following acquisitions in the UK and organic growth in Europe.
However, InPost's scale and international presence remain below
that of larger, integrated peers.
The Stable Outlook reflects its expectation that EBITDA net
leverage will stabilise within the rating sensitivities for a 'BB+'
rating, ranging from 1.5x to 2.3x. This will be supported by EBITDA
growth, driven by increasing volumes and positive FCF generation.
Key Rating Drivers
Strong EBITDA Growth in 2024: In 2024, InPost increased its
Fitch-defined EBITDA by about 25% year on year to PLN2,389 million.
Consistent growth has allowed the company to more than double its
revenue and EBITDA since 2021, leading us to relax its debt
capacity by 0.3x. InPost recorded EBITDA growth in Poland (up 10%,
around 80% of total EBITDA), at Mondial Relay (up 20%, around a 10%
share) and in the international segment (UK, Italy), which
delivered its first year of positive EBITDA.
Solid Growth Drivers: EBITDA growth in Poland was primarily driven
by about a 20% increase in parcel volumes to 709 million, fuelled
by SMEs and the fashion industry. In the international division
(the UK, Italy), EBITDA was supported by growth in the
consumer-to-consumer sector and higher returns in
business-to-consumer. InPost gained full control over its logistics
in the UK through the acquisition of Menzies, enabling more
efficient operations and profitability improvements. At Mondial
Relay, EBITDA growth was mostly driven by increased parcel volumes
to about 267 million.
Mild Decrease in Profitability Expected: Fitch forecasts InPost's
EBITDA margin to gradually decrease to 18.4% on average in
2026-2029 from 21.9% in 2024. This will be driven by the increasing
share of less profitable international operations in total EBITDA.
Fitch projects the EBITDA margin at 18.7% in 2025, as higher
logistics costs and selling, general, and administrative expenses
(SG&A) in the UK are only partly offset by price increases. Fitch
forecasts stable margins in Poland and margin improvement at
Mondial Relay in 2025, facilitated by slightly better pricing and
normalisation of the additional marketing and finance costs
incurred after the acquisition.
Leverage Consistent with 'BB+' Rating: Fitch projects EBITDA net
leverage to be unchanged at around 1.8x at end-2025, consistent
with the 'BB+' rating. Fitch expects a further reduction to 1.6x on
average in 2026-2029, driven by solid EBITDA growth and positive
FCF before acquisitions. InPost's public target of maintaining
EBITDA net leverage around 2.0x is broadly in line with its rating
sensitivities for EBITDA net leverage at 1.5x-2.3x.
Strategy Focused on Growth: Fitch believes management's strategy is
geared towards growth and market diversification. Fitch expects
InPost's capex to average PLN2.1 billion a year in 2025-2029, well
above PLN1.4 billion in 2024, as the company develops its automated
parcel machine (APM) network internationally and to lesser extent
in Poland. Fitch views InPost's approach toward acquisitions as
opportunistic, with a focus on the strategic fit of the target and
the payback period of the investment. External growth brings some
execution risk, especially in international markets. Fitch
forecasts annual acquisitions of PLN500 million for 2026-2029.
Acquisition of Yodel: In April this year InPost acquired a 95.5%
stake in Yodel Delivery Network (Yodel), a company focused on
'to-door' parcel delivery in the UK. The transaction will enable
InPost to gain an 8% market share in the largest e-commerce market
in Europe, creating a platform for further growth. InPost aims to
restructure Yodel, which is unprofitable, mainly through automation
and logistics efficiency, to gradually increase the share of the
more profitable APM model. Yodel is currently in legal dispute with
its previous owners, which depending on the outcome may create
additional execution risk. Fitch will monitor the ongoing legal
case.
Increasing Diversification: InPost is improving its geographic
diversification, particularly through the expansion of its Mondial
Relay division, and acquisitions in the UK and early development in
Italy. InPost will achieve an 8% market share in the UK following
the recent acquisitions. The company is also entering other
European markets, such as Iberia. However, most of its EBITDA is
still generated in Poland, with other markets contributing about
20% in total in 2024, which Fitch expects to increase to about 30%
by 2028. The weight of the domestic market limits further rating
upside.
High Customer Concentration: Allegro and Vinted are InPost's two
largest customers, together contributing 40% to total revenue.
Fitch believes concentration risk is inevitable due to the
structure of the Polish e-commerce market, where Allegro is by far
the largest operator. Concentration risk is mitigated by long-term
contracts, including a seven-year contract with Allegro with
minimum volumes, maturing in 2027, and a delivery agreement with
Vinted signed in 2025 covering eight countries until end-2027.
Fitch expects customer concentration to gradually reduce.
Peer Analysis
Comparability with large international logistics operators such as
Deutsche Post AG (DP; A-/Stable) and La Poste (A+/Stable) is
limited, despite similarities in the nature of their businesses.
This is due to InPost's considerably smaller scale than DP,
limited, although growing, international presence and the lack of
service-offering diversification, mitigated by its dominant
position and solid record of operations in APM in Poland.
Fitch believes InPost's geographic diversification has improved in
the recent years, given its established presence in France and
improving market share in the UK, and its entry into new markets
such as Iberia and Italy. However, it remains weaker than its
well-integrated global peers, resulting in a lower debt capacity
for a given rating.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions within its Rating Case for the Issuer
- InPost's parcel volumes to continue to grow, on average 14% a
year in 2025-2029
- Contracts to benefit from an annual repricing mechanism
- Capex (including maintenance capex) on average at PLN2.1 billion
annually over 2025-2029
- Acquisitions totaling PLN2.1 billion in 2025-2029
- No dividends
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- EBITDA net leverage above 2.3x on a sustained basis
- EBITDA interest coverage below 4.5x
- Negative FCF through the cycle due to lower operating margin,
high dividend pay-outs or major acquisitions
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- EBITDA net leverage below 1.5x on a sustained basis, supported by
EBITDA growth, positive FCF in line with its expectations and a
more conservative financial policy
- Successful implementation of its international expansion
strategy, supporting further growth and diversification, reflected
in an increasing share of international businesses in EBITDA
towards 50%
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-2024, InPost held unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of
PLN762 million. This compares with its forecast negative free cash
flow (FCF) after acquisitions and divestitures in 2025, totalling
PLN520 million. In 1Q25, InPost refinanced its term loan of PLN1.95
billion with a new term loan of PLN1.5 billion, and increased its
revolving credit facility to PLN2.7 billion from PLN0.8 billion,
each with a five-year term. Fitch expects available funds to cover
the forecast negative FCF in 2025-2026, although this negative FCF
reflects its conservative assumption of potential acquisitions.
InPost's next large debt maturities are in 2027, comprising PLN2.1
billion of senior unsecured notes and PLN0.5 billion of senior
secured bonds.
Issuer Profile
InPost is a leading parcel delivery service in Poland, providing
package delivery services through its nationwide network of
'locker-type' APMs, a 'to-door' delivery, and fulfilment services.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
InPost S.A. LT IDR BB+ Upgrade BB
LC LT IDR BB+ Upgrade BB
Natl LT BBB+(pol) Upgrade BBB(pol)
senior
unsecured LT BB+ Upgrade RR4 BB
===========
S W E D E N
===========
POLESTAR AUTOMOTIVE: 2024 Net Loss Widens to $2 Billion
-------------------------------------------------------
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC filed with the U.S. Securities
and Exchange Commission its Annual Report on Form 20-F reporting a
net loss of $2 billion for the year ended December 31, 2024,
compared to a net loss of $1.2 billion for the year ended 2023.
According to Polestar, there is substantial doubt about its ability
to continue as a going concern, meaning that it may not be able to
continue in operation for the foreseeable future or be able to
realize assets and discharge liabilities in the ordinary course of
operations. Polestar is already highly levered and needs to raise
additional funds through the issuance of new debt, equity
securities, or otherwise in order to support its current
operations, liquidity needs, and business growth. There is no
assurance that sufficient financing will be available when needed
to allow Polestar to continue as a going concern. The perception
that Polestar may not be able to continue as a going concern may
also make it more difficult to raise additional funds or operate
Polestar's business due to concerns about its ability to meet
contractual obligations.
Gothenburg, Sweden-based Deloitte AB, the Company's auditor since
2021, issued a "going concern" qualification in its report dated
May 9, 2025, attached to the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K
for the year ended December 31, 2024, citing that the Company
requires additional financing to support operating and development
activities that raise substantial doubt about its ability to
continue as a going concern.
Based on current operating plans, availability of short-term and
long-term debt financing arrangements, and continued financial
support from existing Polestar shareholders, Polestar believes that
it has resources to fund its operations for at least the next 12
months. However, Polestar will require additional funds to finance
its activities thereafter and expects to consider various financing
alternatives with banks and other third parties.
A full-text copy of the Company's Form 20-F is available at:
https://tinyurl.com/pcvnbkdf
About Polestar Automotive
Polestar (Nasdaq: PSNY) is the Swedish electric performance car
brand with a focus on uncompromised design and innovation, and the
ambition to accelerate the change towards a sustainable future.
Headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden, its cars are available in 27
markets globally across North America, Europe and Asia Pacific.
As of Dec. 31, 2024, the Company had $4.1 billion in total assets,
$7.4 billion in total liabilities, and a total deficit of $3.3
billion.
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
ALDBROOK MORTGAGE 2025-1: Fitch Assigns BB+(EXP) Rating on E Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Aldbrook Mortgage Transaction 2025-1
plc's notes expected ratings.
The assignment of final ratings is contingent on the receipt of
final documents conforming to the information already reviewed.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Aldbrook Mortgage
Transaction
2025-1 plc
A LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
B LT AA-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
C LT A-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
D LT BBB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating
E LT BB+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
X LT NR(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Transaction Summary
This transaction is a static securitisation of a mixed pool of
owner-occupied (OO) (20.4%) and buy-to-let (BTL) loans (79.6%)
originated by The Mortgage Lender (TML). TML remains the legal
title holder and the servicer of the assets. The seller will be
Shawbrook Bank plc, the ultimate parent of TML.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Mixed Pool, Low-Seasoned Assets: The mortgage pool comprises OO and
BTL loans, primarily originated after 2023, with a weighted average
(WA) seasoning of 14 months. Within the OO market, TML focuses on
borrowers who do not qualify for high street lenders' automated
scorecard criteria. They can include borrowers with some adverse
credit and complex incomes. TML's lending policies are in line with
prime BTL lenders', requiring full valuation of all loans and
applying loan-to-value (LTV) and interest cover ratio (ICR) tests
for underwriting. Fitch therefore applied originator adjustments of
1.1x and 1.0x to foreclosure frequencies for the OO and BTL
sub-pools, respectively.
Unhedged Basis Risk: The pool will comprise solely fixed-rate loans
that will revert to TML's standard variable rate (SVR) plus a
contractual margin of 4.2% on a WA basis at closing. Fitch has
stressed the transaction cash flows for basis risk between the Bank
of England base rate and SONIA, in line with its UK RMBS Rating
Criteria as TML's SVR historically closely tracks Bank of England
base rate movements.
Fixed Interest Rate Swap Schedule: The transaction will feature a
fixed-to-floating interest rate swap to hedge the interest rate
risk between the fixed-rate mortgage assets and the SONIA-linked
notes. The swap will have a defined notional schedule, calculated
using a 0% constant prepayment rate and assuming no defaults. In
Fitch's cashflow modelling, the combination of high prepayments and
decreasing interest rates leads to the transaction being
over-hedged with swap payments senior to notes interest. This
combination is the driving scenario in its ratings.
No Product Switches Permitted: No product switches may be retained
in the pool and will be repurchased. This mitigates the potential
for pool migration towards lower-yielding assets and the need for
additional hedging.
Fixed Loans Reversions Affect CPR: Most fixed-rate loans have a
tenor of five years, and the reversion dates are concentrated in
2029. Fitch therefore expects prepayment rates to remain low after
closing, particularly considering the high early repayment charges
applicable in the first few years from origination. This will limit
potential excess spread compression and the risk of over-hedging
arising from a high constant prepayment rate (CPR) in the early
years of the transaction.
Fitch has therefore considered alternative high CPR assumptions for
the first five years of the transaction's life, lower than Fitch's
standard assumptions. For year five, Fitch applied a CPR higher
than standard assumptions. The criteria variation results in a
multi-notch difference for all notes from the model-implied ratings
when using the standard high CPR assumptions.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The transaction's performance may be affected by adverse changes in
market conditions and the economic environment. Weakening economic
performance is strongly correlated to increasing delinquencies and
defaults that could reduce the credit enhancement available to the
notes. In addition, unexpected declines in recoveries could result
in lower net proceeds, which may make some notes susceptible to
negative rating action, depending on the extent of the decline in
recoveries.
Fitch found that a 15% increase in the weighted average foreclosure
frequencies and a 15% decrease in the weighted average recovery
rate may lead to downgrades of one category each for the class A,
B, C and D notes and of two notches for the class E notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stable-to-improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies
and defaults would lead to increasing credit enhancement and,
potentially, upgrades. Fitch found that a decrease in the weighted
average foreclosure frequencies of 15% and an increase in the
weighted average recovery rate of 15% would lead to upgrades of two
notches each for the class B, C and D notes. The class A notes are
at the highest achievable rating on Fitch's scale and cannot be
upgraded, and the class E notes would remain at their rating.
CRITERIA VARIATION
Fitch applied a criteria variation to the core CPR assumptions in
'high' stresses under the UK RMBS Criteria. This is based on
historical data that suggest prepayment rates may remain low until
a loan approaches the contractual reversion rate. Fitch therefore
amended the CPR assumptions in year one to five of its cash flow
modelling projections. The result is a multi-notch impact on the
class A to D notes, which formed the basis of Fitch's rating
assignment.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch reviewed the results of a third-party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information, and concluded that there were no
findings that affected the rating analysis.
Fitch conducted a review of a small targeted sample of the
originator's origination files and found the information contained
in the reviewed files to be adequately consistent with the
originator's policies and practices and the other information
provided to the agency about the asset portfolio.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
AMBX LIMITED: FRP Advisory Named as Administrators
--------------------------------------------------
Ambx Limited was placed into administration proceedings in the High
Court of Justice Business and Property Courts of England and Wales,
Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number: CR-2025-003259,
and Allan Kelly and Steven Philip Ross of FRP Advisory Trading
Limited were appointed as administrators on May 19, 2025.
Ambx Limited engaged in business and domestic software
development.
Its registered office is at Raven House, 29 Linkfield Lane,
Redhill, RH1 1SS, to be changed to Suite 5, Bulman House, Regent
Centre, Gosforth,Newcastle upon Tyne, NE3 3LS
Its principal trading address is at Raven House, 29 Linkfield Lane,
Redhill, RH1 1SS
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Allan Kelly
Steven Philip Ross
FRP Advisory Trading Limited
Suite 5, 2nd Floor, Bulman House
Regent Centre,
Newcastle Upon Tyne NE3 3LS
For further details contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel: 0191 605 3737
Alternative contact:
Sarah Dorkin
Email: cp.newcastle@frpadvisory.com
BBOXX LTD: PKF Littlejohn Named as Administrators
-------------------------------------------------
Bboxx Ltd was placed into administration proceedings in The High
Court of Justice, Business Property Courts of England and Wales,
Insolvency and Companies List, No 003422 of 2025, and Paul Williams
and Stephen Goderski of PKF Littlejohn Advisory Limited were
appointed as administrators on May 19, 2025.
Bboxx Ltd engaged in activities of distribution holding companies.
Its registered office is Fifth Floor, 5 New Street Square, London
EC4A 3BF.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Paul Williams
Stephen Goderski
PKF Littlejohn Advisory Limited
15 Westferry Circus
Canary Wharf
London E14 4HD
For further details contact:
Erin Dawson
Tel No: +44 (0)20 7516 2200
Email: edawson@pkf-l.com
BRADFIELD ROAD: Leonard Curtis Named as Administrators
------------------------------------------------------
Bradfield Road Properties Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD),
Court Number: CR-2025-003201, and Nick Myers and Alex Cadwallader
of Leonard Curtis were appointed as administrators on May 9, 2025.
Bradfield Road engaged in the development of building projects,
buying and selling of own real estate.
Its registered office is at 1 Railshead Road, St Margarets,
Isleworth, TW7 7EP
Its principal trading address is at 554-563 High Road, Finchley,
London, N12 0BA.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Nick Myers
Alex Cadwallader
Leonard Curtis
5th Floor, Grove House
248a Marylebone Road
London, NW1 6BB
For further details contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel: 020 7535 7000
Email: recovery@leonardcurtis.co.uk
Alternative contact: Amber Walker
CORBYN CONSTRUCTION: FRP Advisory Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------------------
Corbyn Construction Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD),
Court Number: CR-2025-003103, and David Hudson and Philip David
Reynolds of FRP Advisory Trading Limited, were appointed as
administrators on May 15, 2025.
Corbyn Construction engaged in construction.
Its registered office is at Gallions Hotel, Basins Approach,
London, E16 2QS in the process of being changed to c/o FRP Advisory
Trading Limited, 2nd Floor, 110 Cannon Street, London, EC4N 6EU
Its principal trading address is at Gallions Hotel, Basins
Approach, London, E16 2QS
The joint administrators can be reached at:
David Hudson
Philip David Reynolds
FRP Advisory Trading Limited
110 Cannon Street
London EC4N 6EU
For further details contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel No: 020 3005 4000
Alternative contact:
Chloe Norris
Email: cp.london@frpadvisory.com
CORRE ENERGY: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------
Corre Energy Ltd was placed into administration proceedings in the
High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts in the High
Court of Justice Business and Property Courts of England and Wales,
Court Number: CR-2025-003102, and Julian Pitts and Louise Longley
of Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP were appointed as administrators
on May 19, 2025.
Corre Energy is into business support service activities.
Its registered office is at 7 Bell Yard, London, England, WC2A
2JR.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Julian Pitts
Louise Longley
Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP
Floor 2, 10 Wellington Place
Leeds, LS1 4AP
For further details contact:
William Parker
Begbies Traynor (Central) LLP
Email: William.parker@btguk.com
Tel No: 0113 518 2449
LIP SYNC: Oury Clark Named as Administrators
--------------------------------------------
Lip Sync Post Limited was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice, Court Number: CR-2025-003134, and Nick
Parsk and Carrie James of Oury Clark Chartered Accountants were
appointed as administrators on May 15, 2025.
Lip Sync Post engaged in motion picture, video and television
programme post-production activities.
Its registered office is at Allen House, 1 Westmead Road, Sutton,
Surrey, SM1 4LA
Its principal trading address is at 123 Wardour Street, London, W1F
OUW
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Nick Parsk
Carrie James
Oury Clark Chartered Accountants
Herschel House
58 Herschel Street, Slough
Berkshire, SL1 1PG
For further details contact:
The Joint Administrators
Email: IR@ouryclark.com.
Alternative contact: Ben Briscoe
LW&P (BICKNACRE): Forvis Mazars Named as Administrators
-------------------------------------------------------
LW&P (Bicknacre) Limited was placed into administration proceedings
in the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts in
Manchester, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number:
CR-2025-000702, and Scott Christian Bevan and Simon David Chandler
of Forvis Mazars LLP were appointed as administrators on May 15,
2025.
LW&P (Bicknacre) engaged in the development of building projects.
Its registered office and principal trading address is at Dbh16
Diss Business Hub, Hopper Way, Diss, Norfolk, IP22 4GT.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Scott Christian Bevan
Simon David Chandler
Forvis Mazars LLP
1st Floor, Two Chamberlain Square
Birmingham, B3 3AX
Contact information for Administrators:
Ben Whitehouse
Email: Ben.whitehouse@mazars.co.uk
MARGREITER LIMITED: Marshall Peters Named as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------------
Margreiter Limited was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice, Court Number: CR-2025-003287, and Paul
Palmer of Marshall Peters was appointed as administrators on May
14, 2025.
Margreiter Limited engaged in the development of building
projects.
Its registered office is c/o Marshall Peters Manchester Ltd, Heskin
Hall Farm, Wood Lane, Heskin, Preston, PR7 5PA
Its principal trading address is at 136-144 New Kings Road, London,
SW6 4LZ
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Paul Palmer
Marshall Peters
Bartle House
Oxford Court
Manchester, M2 3WQ
Tel No: 0161 914 9255
For further details, contact:
Adam Clarke
Marshall Peters
Bartle House
Oxford Court
Manchester, M2 3WQ
Tel No: 01257 452021
Email: adamclarke@marshallpeters.co.uk
RANDALL WATTS: MHA Advisory Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------------
Randall Watts Spv 1 Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Court Number: CR-2025-003453, and
Georgina Marie Eason and James Alexander Snowdon of MHA Advisory
Ltd. were appointed as administrators on May 20, 2025.
Randall Watts engaged in the construction of commercial and
domestic buildings.
Its registered office is c/o Devonports Las Accountants Ltd, The
Rivendell Centre, White Horse Lane, Maldon, CM9 5QP
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Georgina Marie Eason
James Alexander Snowdon
MHA Advisory Ltd
6th Floor, 2 London Wall Place
London, EC2Y 5AU
Further details contact:
Clara Groves
Tel No: 020 7429 4100
Email: Clara.Groves@mha.co.uk
REGENT QUARTER: Leonard Curtis Named as Administrators
------------------------------------------------------
Regent Quarter Sutton Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD),
Court Number: CR-2025-003202, and Nick Myers and Alex Cadwallader
of Leonard Curtis were appointed as administrators on May 9, 2025.
Regent Quarter fka Mizen (Heron House) Limited engaged in the
buying and selling of own real estate, other letting and operating
of own or leased real estate.
Its registered office is at 1 Railshead Road, St Margarets,
Isleworth, TW7 7EP
Its principal trading address is at 342-346 High Street, Sutton,
SM1 1PR
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Nick Myers
Alex Cadwallader
Leonard Curtis
5th Floor, Grove House
248a Marylebone Road
London, NW1 6BB
For further details contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel: 020 7535 7000
Email: recovery@leonardcurtis.co.uk
Alternative contact: Amber Walker
SKYBRIDGE UK: Begbies Traynor Named as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------
Skybridge U.K. Ltd was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts of England
and Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number:
CR-2025-003090, and Kevin Murphy and Irvin Cohen of Begbies Traynor
(London) LLP were appointed as administrators on May 19, 2025.
Skybridge U.K. is a manufacturer of transport equipment.
The Company's registered office is at Unit V1, Vector Park, Forest
Road, Feltham, TW13 7EJ.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Kevin Murphy
Irvin Cohen
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
31st Floor, 40 Bank Street
London, E14 5NR
Any person who requires further information may contact:
Emily Clark
Begbies Traynor (London) LLP
Email: emily.clark@btguk.com
Tel No: 020 7516 1500
WHEEL BIDCO: Fitch Lowers IDR to 'C' on Distressed Debt Exchange
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Wheel Bidco Limited's (PizzaExpress)
Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'C', from 'CCC+', its
super senior debt rating to 'CCC', from 'B+', and senior secured
rating to 'C' from 'CCC+'. All ratings are removed from Rating
Watch Negative. The Recovery Ratings for the super senior debt and
senior secured debt are 'RR1' and 'RR4', respectively.
The downgrade follows PizzaExpress's confirmation that it has
obtained sufficient support from senior secured bondholders to
proceed with its debt restructuring, meeting the conditions for a
distressed debt exchange (DDE) under Fitch's Corporate Rating
Criteria.
Fitch expects to downgrade PizzaExpress to 'Restricted Default'
(RD) on execution of the recapitalisation, which should be
completed in the next few weeks. Fitch will then reassess the IDR
based on the new capital structure, business prospects and
liquidity position. Fitch expects the proposed DDE of an extended
debt maturity, reduced senior secured notes principal and higher
coupons to lead to a credit profile commensurate with the high end
of the 'CCC' rating category.
Key Rating Drivers
DDE Terms Agreed: PizzaExpress obtained consent from more than 97%
of bondholders to proceed with the debt restructuring. The
recapitalisation is anticipated to be completed in weeks. An
amendment and extension of the group's existing GBP30 million super
senior revolving credit facility (SSRCF) due January 2026 is a
condition for the senior secured notes extension.
Fitch will downgrade the IDR to 'RD' on the execution of the debt
exchange, before reassessing the company and assigning a rating
consistent with its forward-looking assessment of its credit
profile. Based on its view of persistently weak credit metrics,
fragile free cash flow (FCF) and material execution risks
associated with EBITDA expansion, the company's credit profile on
completion of the bond exchange is commensurate with the high end
of the 'CCC' rating category.
Material Reduction in Terms: The restructuring includes a planned
extension of bond maturity to September 2029 from July 2026. Fitch
believes the transaction has the effect of allowing the company to
avoid an eventual probable default. This is because the
non-acceptance of the refinancing by a majority of the bondholders
would cast doubt on its ability to meet debt obligations on current
terms. Under its criteria, this deal will materially reduce terms
for existing bondholders and will be classified as a DDE.
Uncertain EBITDA Recovery: PizzaExpress's revenue fell short of its
expectation for 2024, due primarily to a decline in like-for-like
(LFL) covers. Despite benefits from its cost-optimisation projects
and better terms with suppliers, its rating case assumes a slight
drop in EBITDA in 2025, driven by higher labour costs from a rise
in minimum wage and national insurance contributions in the UK.
Fitch sees material execution risks in increasing revenue growth
through promotion and loyalty and partnership programmes if
consumer demand is weaker than anticipated.
Structural Profitability Reduction: The reduction in PizzaExpress's
profitability during 2022-2023 was structural, due to its inability
to fully pass on cost inflation in food and beverage, energy and
labour to consumers. Consequently, Fitch forecasts Fitch-adjusted
EBITDA margin to remain subdued, at 10.5% in 2025-2028 versus 15%-
16% before the Covid-19 pandemic. Fitch believes a full recovery to
2019 levels is unlikely over the medium term.
Weak Coverage Ratios: Fitch forecasts PizzaExpress's EBITDAR
fixed-charge coverage to remain at 1.3x across 2025-2028 (end-2024:
1.4x), which is weak for the restaurant sector, underscoring the
importance of EBITDA recovery to improve its credit profile.
Neutral-to-Negative FCF: Fitch expects FCF to become slightly
negative from 2025, as working capital inflows will not be
sustainable over the medium term, while the pace and extent of the
EBITDA recovery remains uncertain. Fitch assumes capex will decline
to GBP17 million annually, as PizzaExpress finalises its
refurbishment programme and maintains a modest new restaurant
expansion.
Small Scale; Limited Diversification: The company's business
profile is stable and aligned with a low 'B' category, due to its
small scale in a fragmented UK restaurant sector, in which it holds
an 8% share. The market provides limited long-term growth
opportunities, due to consumer caution, the cost-of-living crisis
and intense competition. Fitch does not expect PizzaExpress to
expand its network substantially or increase its EBITDAR over the
medium term, from GBP84 million in 2024.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions within the Rating Case for the Issuer
- Revenue to gradually increase from 2025, after a 2.7% decline in
2024
- EBITDA at GBP45 million-48 million over 2025-2028
- Slight reversal in working capital outflows from 2025
- Capex at around GBP17 million a year
- Bond prepaid by GBP55 million and repriced at 9.875%
- Equity injection of GBP20 million from shareholders in 2025
- Extension of the Group's SSRCF concurrently with the maturity
extension of the senior secured notes
- No dividends or M&A to 2028
Recovery Analysis
The recovery analysis assumes that PizzaExpress would be
reorganised as a going concern in bankruptcy rather than
liquidated. Fitch has assumed a 10% administrative claim.
Fitch has maintained its estimate for post-reorganisation going
concern EBITDA at GBP40 million, on which Fitch bases the
enterprise value. It is similar to Fitch-adjusted EBITDA of EUR47.7
million in 2024, which came under pressure from high cost inflation
and a challenging market environment.
Fitch has applied a 5.0x enterprise value multiple to the gong
concern EBITDA to calculate a post-reorganisation enterprise value.
This is within the 4.0x-6.0x range Fitch has used across publicly
and privately rated peers. It takes into consideration the scale,
limited international diversification and single core brand of
PizzaExpress.
The company's senior secured notes rank behind its GBP30 million
SSRCF, which Fitch assumed to be fully drawn on default. The ranked
recovery for the GBP30 million super SSRCF is in the 'RR1' band,
indicating a 'CCC' instrument rating, three notches above the IDR.
Its waterfall analysis generates a ranked recovery for the GBP335
million senior secured notes in the 'RR4' band, indicating a 'C'
instrument rating, in line with the IDR.
The senior secured notes recovery prospects could improve to 'RR3'
from 'RR4', one notch above the IDR, on DDE completion with a
reduced face value of the notes.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Completion of the proposed debt restructuring would lead to a
downgrade to 'RD', followed by a reassessment of the company's
credit profile under the revised capital structure.
- Failure to pay interest on any financial debt on expiration of
the grace period, cure period or default forbearance period would
result in a downgrade to 'RD'.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Fitch does not expect to take positive rating action at least
until after the IDR is downgraded to 'RD' with the DDE completed
and the amended capital structure re-rated.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
At end-2024, PizzaExpress had Fitch-adjusted cash of GBP68 million
(after excluding GBP20 million for daily operations and, therefore,
not available for debt service) and GBP26 million available under
the GBP30 million SSRCF maturing in January 2026. Of the SSRCF,
GBP4 million was used to issue an electricity letter of credit.
Establishing a longer-dated RCF is important in supporting the
company's medium-term liquidity, although its forecast does not
anticipate a need for cash drawings.
Issuer Profile
PizzaExpress is a leading casual dining operator with more than 450
restaurants, of which over 360 are owned and operated in the UK and
Ireland.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Wheel Bidco Limited LT IDR C Downgrade CCC+
senior secured LT C Downgrade RR4 CCC+
super senior LT CCC Downgrade RR1 B+
WMS ENTRANCE: Booth & Co Named as Administrators
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WMS Entrance Systems Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts in Leeds, Court Number: CR-2025-000482, and Philip Booth of
Booth & Co were appointed as administrators on May 15, 2025.
WMS Entrance engaged in construction installation.
The Company's registered office and principal trading address is at
Gannex Park, Dewsbury Road, Elland, HX5 9AF.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Philip Booth
Booth & Co
Coopers House
Intake Lane
Ossett WF5 0RG
Contact details for Office Holder:
Tel No: 01924 263777
Email: enquiries@boothinsolvency.co.uk
Alternative contact: Claire Robinson
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S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
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Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
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Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754.
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