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T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R
E U R O P E
Monday, May 19, 2025, Vol. 26, No. 99
Headlines
B U L G A R I A
FIBANK: Fitch Affirms 'B' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
F R A N C E
HOLDING D'INFRASTRUCTURES: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' IDR, Outlook Stable
I T A L Y
AUTO ABS ITALIAN 2025-1: Fitch Gives 'BB+(EXP)sf' Rating on E Notes
L U X E M B O U R G
ALBION FINANCING 1: Fitch Rates USD2-Bil. Secured Notes 'BB+(EXP)'
AURIS LUXEMBOURG II: Fitch Affirms 'B' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
375 PROPERTIES: Edge Recovery Named as Administrators
AITA FILMS: Kallis Insolvency Named as Administrators
CARNIVAL PLC: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDR to 'BB+', Outlook Positive
HOSPITAL PIPELINE: Azets Holding Named as Administrators
IOR GROUP: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
LHP SOLUTIONS: CG&Co Named as Administrators
MACQUARIE AIRFINANCE: Fitch Alters Outlook on 'BB+' IDR to Positive
MANTA SYSTEMS: RSM UK Named as Administrators
MAVEN LEISURE: Interpath Advisory Named as Administrators
MAVEN PREMIUM: Interpath Advisory Named as Administrators
MOUNT PACKAGING: Philmore & Co Named as Administrators
NEWGATE FUNDING 2007-2: Fitch Affirms B+ Rating on Class F Debt
PATERSON ASSOCIATES: Opus Restructuring Named as Administrators
SMALL BUSINESS 2025-1: Fitch Assigns BB+sf Final Rating on C Notes
TTD TRADES: WSM Marks Named as Administrators
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B U L G A R I A
===============
FIBANK: Fitch Affirms 'B' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed First Investment Bank AD's (Fibank) Long
-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' with a Stable Outlook and
its Viability Rating (VR) at 'b'.
Key Rating Drivers
Asset Quality Affects Credit Profile: Fibank's weak asset quality
weighs on its assessment of its profitability and business model
and encumbers its capital, given its only modest provisioning. This
is balanced against a reasonable domestic franchise and adequate
funding and liquidity.
Operating Environment to Improve: Bulgaria's planned eurozone
accession should improve the operating environment for its domestic
banks, strengthen the institutional framework and its resilience,
and reinforce prospects for continued profitable operations. The
accession should strengthen banks' already good liquidity position
and provide flexibility for contingency planning. Business
prospects are underpinned by Bulgaria's solid economic performance,
reflected in rising income levels, and significant and structural
improvements in asset quality and materially reduced sector
fragmentation.
Constrained Business Model: Fibank's business profile is weighed
down by a high share of problem assets, limiting its ability to
grow and improve returns. Fibank is Bulgaria's fifth-largest bank,
with an 8% share of sector assets at end-2024.
High Problem Asset Exposures: The bank's weak asset quality and
high capital encumbrance weigh on its risk profile, despite some
improvement in underwriting, particularly in retail lending. These
issues also affect its business model, resulting in a strong
linkage between Fibank's business and risk profiles.
Weak Asset Quality: Fibank's impaired loans ratio was stable at
12.6% at end-2024, despite sizeable write-offs of 2.7% of gross
loans. Fitch expects the ratio to reduce over the next two years,
as higher revenue should help reduce impaired loans, but the ratio
is likely to remain much higher than at peers. A large stock of
foreclosed assets, including investment properties, remain
difficult to resolve and weigh on asset quality. Reserve coverage
of problem assets is considerably weaker than at peers, with loan
loss allowances covering 32% of impaired loans at end-2024.
Profitability Fluctuates on Impairments: Fitch expects Fibank's
profitability metrics to moderately weaken over 2025-2026 due to
falling interest rates and continued efforts to resolve problem
assets. Fitch also anticipates them to remain more volatile than at
peers, given the bank's modest provisioning of large problem loans
and assets. The operating profit/risk-weighted assets ratio
weakened to 1.8% in 2024 from 2.3% in 2023 on higher loan
impairment charges.
High Capital Encumbrance: The bank's common equity Tier 1 ratio
improved to 18% at end-2024 from 17.1% at end-2023, but encumbrance
by unprovisioned impaired loans remained high at 47%.
Reasonable Funding and Liquidity: The bank's funding relies on
customer deposits. Customer deposits are granular, and liquidity
buffers provide strong coverage of Fibank's refinancing needs. The
bank remains comfortably self funded and is making progress in
meeting its fully phased-in minimum requirement for own funds and
eligible liabilities from mid-2025.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Negative rating action could stem from a weakening of Fibank's
asset quality, resulting in the bank's unprovisioned impaired loans
exceeding its common equity Tier 1 capital without clear prospects
for a swift recovery.
A deterioration of the bank's common equity Tier 1 ratio below 15%
on a sustained basis due to asset-quality pressure or weaker
profitability could also lead to negative rating action.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
An upgrade would be contingent on major progress in resolving the
bank's problem assets, while maintaining reasonable profitability
and capitalisation. This would require a credible improvement in
loan book quality or increased coverage of impaired loans towards
the sector average, leading to a sustainable reduction of capital
encumbrance by unprovisioned impaired loans. Progress in addressing
the bank's stock of non-loan problem assets would also be positive
for the rating.
No Government Support: Fibank's Government Support Rating (GSR) of
'ns' (no support) expresses Fitch's opinion that, although
potential sovereign support for the bank is possible, it cannot be
relied on. This is underpinned by the EU's Bank Recovery and
Resolution Directive, transposed into Bulgarian legislation, which
requires senior creditors to participate in losses, ahead of a bank
receiving sovereign support.
An upgrade of the GSR would most likely result from a positive
change in Bulgaria's propensity to support domestic banks. While
not impossible, Fitch believes this is highly unlikely in light of
the existing resolution legislation.
VR ADJUSTMENTS
The 'bb+' operating environment score is below the 'bbb' category
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: financial
market development (negative).
The 'b' earnings and profitability score is below the 'bb' category
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: earnings
stability (negative).
The 'b' capitalisation and leverage score is below the 'bb'
category implied score due to the following adjustment reason:
reserve coverage and asset valuation (negative).
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
First Investment
Bank AD LT IDR B Affirmed B
ST IDR B Affirmed B
Viability b Affirmed b
Government Support ns Affirmed ns
===========
F R A N C E
===========
HOLDING D'INFRASTRUCTURES: Fitch Affirms 'BB+' IDR, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Holding d'Infrastructures des Métiers
de l'Environnement's (SAUR) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR)
and senior unsecured rating at 'BB+'. The Outlook on the IDR is
Stable.
The affirmation and Stable Outlook reflect its expectation that
SAUR's funds from operations (FFO) net leverage will return within
the 'BB+' rating sensitivities (FFO net leverage below 5.2x) by
2026, widening the headroom in 2027. The company is deleveraging
from the 2023 peak, mainly thanks to organic growth and margin
recovery in its French business. However, further business growth,
cost optimisation and working-capital management efforts will be
required to position the rating more comfortably.
The rating reflects SAUR's robust business profile as an integrated
water and wastewater operator with good visibility on revenues on
its municipal business. However, some earnings volatility resulting
from tariff indexation time lag, and the growing share of more
profitable industrial water activities limit the group's debt
capacity.
Key Rating Drivers
Deleveraging Begun, not Yet Sufficient: SAUR's Fitch-defined FFO
net leverage fell to 6.6x in 2024 (8.2x in 2023), a level not yet
consistent with the rating. Fitch expects SAUR to continue
deleveraging, supported by the recovery in EBITDA margin from its
municipal water activity, and growth in the industrial and
international businesses. Fitch also expects cost optimisation and
improvements in working-capital management towards a neutral to
positive position by 2026. Its forecast anticipates that FFO net
leverage will return broadly within the 'BB+' sensitivities by 2026
and fall further, reaching about 4.5x in 2027.
Cash-flow Generation Gradually Improving: SAUR's free cash flow
(FCF) generation was negative in 2023-2024, although with a
year-on-year recovery, affected by a reduced EBITDA margin and
working-capital cash absorption. Fitch expects FCF to recover
throughout the forecast period and turn neutral in 2026. FCF
recovery remains contingent on the successful improvement of the
EBITDA margin, effective working-capital management and capex
moderation. However, some execution risk remains, especially
regarding renewed inflation pressure or negative working-capital
trends driven by engineering, construction and construction, and
industrial segment growth.
Good 2024 Performance: The company's Fitch-adjusted EBITDA rose by
29% to EUR197 million in 2024, above its previous guidance of
EUR185 million. This was driven by the recovery of the municipal
water business in France and international, while industrial water
continued strong growth. Nevertheless, negative EUR44 million
working capital continued to penalise the company's FCF, which was
around negative EUR100 million. FFO net leverage of 6.6x was in
line with its expectations.
Robust Organic Growth: SAUR's revenues have had 8% annual organic
growth over the last three years, supported by distribution and
industrial water. In water distribution, the company benefits from
a revenue backlog of EUR7.6 billion with churn rate below 5%. The
industrial water business continued its strong organic growth,
supported by water management outsourcing, and benefiting from the
latest acquisitions. Fitch expects SAUR's revenues will grow at 6%
CAGR from 2024 to 2027, driven by tariff revisions, commercial
efforts and growing demand.
Cost Optimisation Plan Under Way: The company's optimisation plan
started in 2024 with full-time equivalent improvement at the local
level, contract renegotiations and productivity gains with a total
benefit of EUR25 million for the year. In 2025 the company aims to
complete its water reorganisation in France and centralise and
optimise purchasing processes, reducing external charges. Fitch
also expects exceptional costs related to completed M&A and
efficiency measures to diminish.
Working-Capital Management Still Challenging: SAUR's cash
absorption from working capital of EUR44 million fell short of its
expectations for neutral working capital by end-2024, also due to
increasing industrial business and engineering, construction and
construction works. Fitch forecasts working capital will improve
over the rating horizon, but that the expansion of the industry
segment will largely offset the benefit of working-capital cash
generation within municipal water distribution. Fitch therefore
expects broadly neutral working capital in 2025 and mild cash
generation thereafter, still far from the large cash generation
reported until 2022.
Supportive Shareholders: SAUR's main shareholders (EQT, PGGM and
DIF) have supported its strategy, prioritising growth over
dividends. SAUR's external growth strategy was conservatively
financed, mostly through capital increases allowing it to
strengthen its market position in the industry segment while
minimising the impact on leverage. Its forecast does not assume any
further acquisitions but Fitch expects the shareholders will
continue to provide equity support for potential new acquisitions.
A reduction of shareholder support for acquisitions could hinder
the company's deleveraging trajectory.
Peer Analysis
SAUR is France's third-largest water and wastewater management
company, behind Veolia Environnement S.A. and Suez S.A. Both
companies benefit from larger scale and a greater presence outside
the domestic market than SAUR. In water, these peers also benefit
from larger and more profitable contracts, which explains their
higher profitability even though they operate under the same
contractual framework as SAUR.
FCC Aqualia, S.A. (BBB-/Stable), the Spanish water concessions
operator, is SAUR's closest rated peer by business mix and scale.
Aqualia's municipal business accounts for about 90% of EBITDA,
compared with around 70% for SAUR at end-2024. Overall, Fitch
considers Aqualia's business risk slightly better than SAUR's, with
longer average concession residual life, higher renewal rates,
better profitability due to higher capex intensity, and a
contractual framework that includes timely financial equilibrium
mechanisms. This allows for higher debt capacity with a threshold
for investment grade at 5.0x for FFO net leverage for Aqualia
compared with 4.5x for SAUR.
Acea SpA (BBB+/Stable) is an Italian diversified multi-utility
operating in water distribution, environmental services, and
electricity production and distribution. Acea benefits from a
stronger business profile thanks to a high share of regulated
revenues provided by a mature and predictable regulatory framework.
Acea's diversified revenue streams and regulated revenue mechanism
provides better protection against inflation, which enabled it to
preserve its EBITDA margin during the recent inflationary period.
Key Assumptions
- Revenue CAGR of 6.7% for 2025-2027, supported by organic
development (mainly Industrial Water and Water France) and tariff
indexation
- Fitch-calculated consolidated EBITDA margin gradually increasing
to 11.5% by 2027 (9.5% in 2025; 10.8% in 2026), from 8.4% in 2024
- Average capex of about EUR210 million a year over 2025-2027
- No M&A; any large M&A to be largely supported by equity
injections
- No dividends over the period
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- Failure to show credible deleveraging pattern towards 5.2x FFO
net leverage by 2026 at the latest
- Persisting earnings volatility due to changes in public contract
agreements, regulatory frameworks or having a less-contracted
business mix or being contracted with higher-risk counterparties
(Industrial Water rising above 35%-40% of total EBITDA - around 30%
forecast in 2025 - for example, could lead Fitch to review SAUR's
debt capacity for the current rating
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- FFO net leverage below 4.5x on a sustained basis, accompanied
with tangible recovery of EBITDA margin
Liquidity and Debt Structure
SAUR's liquidity at end-2024 was EUR824 million including EUR674
million of readily available cash and EUR150 million of undrawn
revolving credit facility. The liquidity was supported by the
EUR550 million blue bond issued in October 2024 to refinance the
EUR450 million sustainability-linked bonds maturing in September
2025 (EUR208 million were already prepaid).
Fitch expects SAUR to return to neutral FCF by 2026 supported by
increasing EBITDA and improvement in working capital. Fitch expects
the company will proactively refinance its bond maturities to
2027-2029.
Issuer Profile
SAUR is an integrated water and wastewater treatment and
distribution operator for households and a water services provider
for industries. It also provides engineering and procurement and
other water-related works for municipalities and serves more than
20 million residents and 9,200 municipalities.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Holding d'Infrastructures
des Metiers de
l'Environnement LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
senior unsecured LT BB+ Affirmed RR4 BB+
=========
I T A L Y
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AUTO ABS ITALIAN 2025-1: Fitch Gives 'BB+(EXP)sf' Rating on E Notes
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Auto ABS Italian Stella Loans S.r.l.
(Series 2025-1) notes expected ratings.
The assignment of final ratings is contingent on the receipt of
final documents conforming to information reviewed.
Entity/Debt Rating
----------- ------
Auto ABS Italian
Stella Loans S.r.l.
(Series 2025-1)
A1 LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
A2 LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
B LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating
C LT A(EXP)sf Expected Rating
D LT BBB+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
E LT BB+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
Transaction Summary
The transaction is a seven-month revolving period securitisation of
Italian balloon or amortising auto loans originated by Stellantis
Financial Services Italia (SFS), a captive lender resulting from a
joint venture between Stellantis N.V. (BBB/Stable/F2) and Santander
Consumer Bank S.p.A. (not rated).
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Low Expected Defaults: Fitch has observed historical default rates
lower than for other captive auto loan lenders operating in Italy.
The provisional portfolio comprises loans advanced to private
borrowers (93.4%) and commercial borrowers (6.6%). Fitch derived
separate asset assumptions for different products, reflecting
different performance expectations and product features. Fitch has
assumed a weighted average (WA) base-case lifetime default and
recovery rate of 2.0% and 40.1%, respectively, for the provisional
portfolio.
Balloon Loans Risk Addressed: The provisional portfolio partly
consists of balloon loans (41.2% of the pool balance), while the
remainder comprises amortising auto loans. Balloon loan borrowers
may face a payment shock at maturity if they cannot refinance the
balloon amount or return or sell their car. Fitch has considered
this additional default risk by applying a higher default multiple.
The WA default multiple of the portfolio is 5.2x at 'AA(EXP)sf'.
Shorter Data History for Multi-Step Loans: The preliminary
portfolio includes approximately 15% multi-step loans, with no
restrictions during the revolving period. SFS began originating
these loans in 2021, and the data history is shorter compared with
other products offered by the originator. Fitch has factored this
into the default multiples for sub-pools with a significant
proportion of multi-step loans, such as private used and private
new standard loans.
Strong Excess Spread Supports Mezzanines: The provisional portfolio
is expected to generate substantial excess spread, as the assets
earn materially higher yields than the notes' interest and
transaction senior costs. Fitch tested several stresses on
portfolio yield reduction and prepayments assumptions and concluded
that the repayment of the class C and D notes was dependent on
excess spread, currently constraining the ratings at 'A(EXP)sf' and
'BBB+(EXP)sf', respectively.
The uncollateralised class E excess spread notes receive principal
solely through the available excess spread in the revenue priority
of payments and it will start amortising at the first payment date
after closing. Fitch caps excess spread notes' ratings at
'BB+(EXP)sf'.
'AAsf' Sovereign Cap: Italian structured finance transactions are
capped at six notches above Italy's Issuer Default Rating (IDR,
BBB/Positive/F2), which is the case for the class A1, A2 and B
notes. The Positive Outlook on these notes reflects that on the
sovereign.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The ratings of the class A and B notes, at the applicable rating
cap, are sensitive to changes to Italy's Long-Term IDR and Outlook.
A revision of the Outlook on Italy's IDR to Stable would trigger
similar action on the notes.
Unexpected increases in the frequency of defaults or decreases in
recovery rates that could produce loss levels larger than the base
case and could result in negative rating action on the notes. For
example, a simultaneous increase in the default base case by 25%
and decrease in the recovery base case by 25% would lead to up to
two-notch downgrades of the class B to D notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
An upgrade of Italy's IDR and revision of the related rating cap
for Italian structured finance transactions could trigger an
upgrade of the class A and B notes, provided that sufficient credit
enhancement is available to withstand the stresses associated with
higher rating scenarios.
An unexpected decrease in the frequency of defaults or an increase
in the recovery rates could produce loss levels lower than the base
case. For example, a simultaneous decrease in the default base case
by 25% and an increase in the recovery base case by 25% would lead
to upgrades of up to four notches for class C and D notes, provided
there are no qualitative arising elements that could limit the
ratings.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Auto ABS Italian Stella Loans S.r.l. (Series 2025-1)
Fitch reviewed the results of a third party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information, and concluded that there were no
findings that affected the rating analysis.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
===================
L U X E M B O U R G
===================
ALBION FINANCING 1: Fitch Rates USD2-Bil. Secured Notes 'BB+(EXP)'
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned co-borrowers Albion Financing 1 S.a.r.l
and Aggreko Holdings Inc proposed USD2,085 million new senior
secured notes an expected rating of 'BB+(EXP)' with a Recovery
Rating of 'RR2' on the refinancing announcement. The final rating
is contingent upon the receipt of final documents conforming to the
information already reviewed.
The co-borrowers are the financing entities of Albion HoldCo
Limited (Albion), which is the owner of UK-based temporary power
and energy supply provider Aggreko Limited. The announced
refinancing includes a USD323 million dividend recapitalisation,
which will not result in the EBITDA leverage downgrade sensitivity
of 5.0x being exceeded. Fitch forecasts EBITDA leverage to reach
4.5x by end-2025, up from its previous forecast of 4.0x, which
leaves lower rating headroom.
Key Rating Drivers
Dividend Recapitalisation: Albion plans to issue USD323 million of
new debt to fund a special distribution to its sponsors. This is
the first dividend payment since the business was taken private in
2021, and Fitch understands there are no plans to pay further
dividends over the short to medium term. Fitch generally views an
increase in borrowings to fund shareholder distributions
unfavourably, especially when free cash flow (FCF) is already weak.
However, Fitch expects Albion's leverage to remain appropriate for
the current rating, even with the additional debt.
Refinancing Near-Term Facilities: Albion plans to refinance its
USD1,035 million senior secured notes due October 2026 and USD450
million senior unsecured notes due April 2027. The company also
intends to repay USD177 million in preference shares. The new notes
will be senior secured.
The refinancing will simplify Albion's debt structure by removing
unsecured debt and preference shares and extending its maturity
profile. The company will also refinance and extend its GBP300
million revolving credit facility (RCF) and GBP150 million
ancillary bonding facility due June 2026 and plans to increase the
total size of these facilities to approximately USD1.2 billion to
reflect the group's growth since 2021.
Leverage to Rise: The USD423 million increase in debt, which
includes the special dividend and transaction fees relating to the
refinancing, will increase its forecast EBITDA leverage at end-2025
to 4.5x, up from its previous forecast of 4.0x. Fitch expects debt
to continue rising each year to fund the company's growth strategy,
which should lead to corresponding higher EBITDA. If this is not
the case, it could pressure the rating.
Consistently Negative FCF a Constraint: Fitch anticipates negative
FCF generation until 2028 as Albion expands its existing fleet and
invests in the latest emissions-compliant engines and renewable
technologies. The company has plans for large discretionary capex
(around 70%-75% of total) to 2028 to support expansion, which
amounts to average growth capex at 20%-25% of revenue during this
period. This sustained FCF deficit, which Fitch estimates could
reach as much as USD1.8 billion during 2025-2028, could reduce
liquidity headroom and pressure the rating if forecast growth is
not achieved.
Strong Profitability to Continue: Fitch forecasts Albion's
Fitch-calculated EBITDA margin to improve to 39% over the medium
term, compared with an EBITDA margin of about 35% at end-2024.
Albion's company-reported margin improved each year from 2021 to
2024 due to tight cost management, improved pricing, and
cost-saving initiatives. Fitch believes further margin improvement
will be driven by investments in human resources, economies of
scale from an expanded fleet, synergies from acquisitions, and
growth of solar within the energy transition solutions business.
Continued Revenue Growth: Revenue grew about 14% year-on-year in
2024 to 2,854 million, primarily led by a 19% growth in North
America. This increase was due to higher customer activity in
petrochemical and refining, data centres and building services and
construction. It extended the near 14% revenue gain in 2023, which
included USD196 million from recent acquisitions. Fitch anticipates
revenue growth will remain strong while Albion undertakes its
expansion plans.
Attractive Underlying Market: Fitch believes the energy market has
long-term attractive structural drivers, due to ageing electrical
infrastructure, particularly against the backdrop of the transition
to renewable energy. Global demand for power is set to increase
2.5x current levels by 2050, with the largest growth in demand
expected in data centres. Additionally, the gap between power
supply and demand is widening, as governments remain reluctant to
make large investments in fossil-fuel based power plants during
energy transition.
Peer Analysis
Albion's revenue is slightly higher then Boels Topholding B.V.'s
(BB-/Stable) but less than a third of Ashtead Group plc's
(BBB/Stable). Albion's EBITDA margin is similar to Boels but higher
than BCP V Modular Services Holdings III Limited (Modulaire).
Allowing for the planned dividend recapitalisation, Albion's EBITDA
leverage will be between that of Boels and Modulaire.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within Its Rating Case for the Issuer
- Low double-digit revenue growth for 2025-2028, driven by
acquisitions and the company's expansionary capex to meet
increasing demand
- EBITDA margin to continue to improve 2025-2028, driven by key
cost-saving initiatives, focus on pricing and synergies stemming
from acquisitions and growth in solar in the emissions trading
system business
- No further dividend distribution in line with management
expectations to 2028
- Increasing capex in line with management's expectations to 2028
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- EBITDA leverage above 5.0x
- EBITDA margin decreasing due to lower productivity on
expansionary capex, margin-dilutive debt-funded acquisitions, loss
of large customers or significant pricing pressure
- EBITDA interest coverage below 3.0x
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- EBITDA leverage below 4.0x on a sustained basis
- EBITDA interest coverage above 5.0x
- Improvement of FCF margin to above 3% on a sustained basis
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Albion reported USD165 million of cash at end-December 2024. It
also has access to a largely undrawn GBP300 million revolving
credit facility which is currently being extended and increased.
Liquidity will be supported by additional debt to cover the
forecast negative FCF while its expansionary capex plan is
underway. Fitch believes Albion has the flexibility to put on hold
expansionary capex to restore FCF.
Issuer Profile
UK-based Aggreko Limited, a subsidiary of Albion, is a global
leader providing mobile modular power, temperature control and
energy services across more than 60 countries.
Date of Relevant Committee
January 20, 2025
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery
----------- ------ --------
Albion Financing 1
S.a.r.l
senior secured LT BB+(EXP) Expected Rating RR2
AURIS LUXEMBOURG II: Fitch Affirms 'B' LongTerm IDR, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Auris Luxembourg II S.A.'s (WSA)
Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B' with a Stable Outlook.
Fitch has also affirmed the senior secured rating on Auris
Luxembourg III S.a.r.l.'s term loan B (TLB) at 'B+', with a
Recovery Rating of 'RR3'.
The 'B' IDR balances WSA's moderately high financial leverage and
neutral free cash flow (FCF) generation against a strong business
profile supported by a meaningful market position as the
third-largest manufacturer in the global, non-cyclical hearing-aid
market.
The Stable Outlook reflects the steady organic revenue improvement
amid softer product demand in FY25 (financial year ending
September). The company still faces some execution risks, but Fitch
expects WSA's EBITDA margins to remain in the mid-to-high teens
through the implementation of operating efficiencies across its
supply chain that should translate into steady deleveraging towards
5.4x by FY28.
Key Rating Drivers
Limited Tariff Impact: Fitch expects potential tariffs in the US to
have a limited effect on WSA as articles imported for the
handicapped are currently exempt from tariffs. Fitch views the
cancellation of any type of exemptions on WSA devices or parts as
event risk.
Soft US Market: Fitch expects the US retail market will remain
soft, given lower product demand, leading to slower overall sales
growth of around 3% in FY25 versus 7% in FY24, mainly fostered by
the launch of the high-end Widex Allure in March. Fitch expects the
product demand softness to be temporary, as the purchases of
hearing aids cannot be put off for a significant period.
Consequently, Fitch expects revenue to return to mid-single digits
from FY26.
Operating Efficiencies Realisation: WSA's profit margins are
improving, with EBITDA margins 3pp higher on a like-for-like basis
in 2QFY25. Fitch expects EBITDA margins to further benefit as WSA
adopts cost-efficiency measures such as simplifying its research
and development (R&D) teams, cutting administrative headcount and
taking measures on its supply chain, such as leveraging its
regional manufacturing footprint to reduce transportation costs.
This should result in the Fitch-defined EBITDA margin growing
towards 17% by FY28 from estimated 16% in FY25.
Accounting Change to R&D: In line with the company's adjustment,
Fitch has reclassified R&D costs as profit and loss expenses rather
than capitalising them, as it did previously. This results in a
EUR100 million downward revision of EBITDA, with an impact on the
EBITDA margin of around 350bp and around 1.3x on leverage, leading
to leverage being temporarily outside the sensitivities in FY25 by
0.3x. Operating efficiencies should mitigate the margin decline and
lead to steady deleveraging below its negative sensitivity of 6.5x
by FY26. There is no impact on FCF, as Fitch is reducing capex by
an equivalent amount.
Neutral FCF: Fitch expects WSA to continue reinvesting its cash
flow to support its ongoing development of new products, resulting
in moderate R&D, capex, and working capital requirements. Fitch
also expects interest costs to remain at or above EUR200 million
across FY25-FY26, before moderating to around EUR175 million in
FY27-FY28. This will allow neutral to slightly positive FCF. Fitch
sees a risk of higher working-capital volatility related to supply
chain or new product launches, but estimate that FCF will remain
closer to neutral over the medium term. Sustained negative FCF
would signal persisting operational vulnerabilities and could
pressure the ratings.
Long-Term Sector Growth: Hearing aid sales have been resilient
through economic cycles, despite being predominantly discretionary
spending. Fitch expects the customer base to expand, driven by
stronger penetration in large markets, demographic shifts in
advanced economies with more hearing-impaired people adopting
devices, and progress in hearing-aid technology and diagnostics.
WSA's diverse product portfolio, extensive geographic footprint,
and competitive position should allow it to capitalise on these
long-term trends.
Peer Analysis
WSA is one of the top manufacturers and distributors in the hearing
aid industry, benefiting from significant scale, a large portfolio
of brands and widespread geographical coverage. The business
profile is a cross between a medical device manufacturer, supported
by resilient health-driven demand, and a consumer goods company.
Worldwide state- and private insurance-led reimbursement regimes
are rapidly developing. However, most expenses for such devices
remain discretionary and require co-payment by customers.
Fitch assesses WSA's business profile as a solid 'BB' rating, but
its lower profitability, weaker FCF profile and moderately high
leverage constrains the credit profile at 'B'. The company's credit
metrics are broadly in line with those of manufacturers and retail
entities in sectors that share traits of healthcare and consumer
products such as Afflelou S.A.S. (B/Stable). These entities'
business models are also dependent on the marketing and
distribution of R&D-led products with a healthcare profile, which
result in similar EBITDA margins from the high teens to the low
20s.
Key Assumptions
Fitch's Key Assumptions Within Its Rating Case for the Issuer
- Sales growth of 3% in FY25 followed by 5%-6% in FY26-FY28
- Fitch-adjusted EBITDA margin close to 16% in FY25, gradually
increasing towards 17% in FY28, supported by organic growth and
cost-saving initiatives. Its EBITDA calculation now includes
capitalised R&D as operating expenses
- Capex at around 4% of sales to FY28
- Working capital outflow of around EUR50 million in FY25-FY28, to
support revenue growth
- No M&A in the next four years
- No dividends paid for FY24-FY28
Recovery Analysis
- The recovery analysis assumes that WSA would be considered a
going concern (GC) in bankruptcy, and that it would be reorganised
rather than liquidated, given the inherent value of its product
portfolio, brands, retail network and clients.
- Fitch assesses WSA's GC EBITDA at about EUR300 million, which
after undertaking corrective measures should allow the company to
generate moderately positive FCF.
- Financial distress, leading to restructuring, may be the result
of new technologies in the hearing aid market or a widespread
diffusion of value-for-money devices. Both could lead to a loss of
pricing power across WSA's portfolio, reducing gross margins and
overall profitability.
- Fitch believes that restructuring would primarily be triggered by
an increase in leverage associated with financial distress given
WSA's moderately high leverage, leading to above-average debt
multiples. This is likely to materialise at EBITDA levels still
potentially able to generate neutral FCF.
- Fitch applies an enterprise value (EV) multiple of 6.5x EBITDA to
the GC EBITDA to calculate a post-reorganisation EV. The multiple
is at the high end of the range of multiples used for other
healthcare-focused credit opinions and ratings in the 'B' category,
reflecting WSA's strong global market position in the hearing-aid
market and scale.
- Its waterfall analysis generated a ranked recovery in the 'RR3'
band, indicating a 'B+' instrument rating for the senior secured
TLB 1, TLB 2 and revolving credit facility. The latter ranks pari
passu with the TLBs, and which Fitch assumes to be fully drawn upon
default.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- EBITDA leverage above 6.5x on a sustained basis
- EBITDA interest coverage over 2.0x on a sustained basis
- Low to neutral FCF generation
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- EBITDA leverage below 5.5x on a sustained basis
- EBITDA interest coverage over 2.5x on a sustained basis
- FCF margin in the mid-single digits on a sustained basis
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Fitch views WSA's liquidity as satisfactory, as it has EUR39
million of Fitch-adjusted cash available for debt repayment, in
addition to EUR207 million available under its revolving credit
facility, with no major near-term maturities after last year's
refinancing. Its assessment is also underpinned its assumption of
positive, albeit limited, FCF generation though the next two
years.
Issuer Profile
WSA is the combination formed in 2019 of Sivantos and Widex. WSA is
a global leading hearing aid company, with a multi-branded
portfolio of product and business brands.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Auris Luxembourg III
S.a.r.l
senior secured LT B+ Affirmed RR3 B+
Auris Luxembourg II
S.A. LT IDR B Affirmed B
===========================
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
===========================
375 PROPERTIES: Edge Recovery Named as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------
375 Properties Limited was placed into administration proceedings
in the High Court of Justice, Court Number: CR-2025-003239, and
Robert Cundy of Edge Recovery Limited was appointed as
administrators on May 13, 2025.
375 Properties specialized in residents property management.
The Company's registered office and principal trading address is at
375 High Road, Ilford, Essex, IG1 1TF.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Robert Cundy
Edge Recovery Limited
Leonard House,
7 Newman Road, Bromley
Kent, BR1 1RJ
For further details, contact:
Robert Cundy
Tel No: +44 (0)20 8315 7430
Email: rob.cundy@edgerecovery.com
AITA FILMS: Kallis Insolvency Named as Administrators
-----------------------------------------------------
AITA Films Limited was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts of England
and Wales, Insolvency and Companies (ChD), Court Number:
CR-2025-002380, and Kikis Kallis and Andreas Arakapiotis of Kallis
Insolvency Practitioners were appointed as administrators on May 1,
2025.
AITA Films engaged in motion picture production activities.
The Company's registered office is at Unit 2-5 Croxted Mews,
286a-288 Croxted Road, London, SE24 9DA.
Its principal trading address is at Versa Studios Studio House,
Whitehall Rd, Holbeck, Leeds LS12 1AP.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Kikis Kallis
Andreas Arakapiotis
Kallis Insolvency Practitioners
Mountview Court,
1148 High Road,
Whetstone, London, N20 0RA
For further details, contact:
Antonis Stylianou
Tel No: 020 8446 6699
Email: Antonis@kallis.co.uk
CARNIVAL PLC: Fitch Hikes LongTerm IDR to 'BB+', Outlook Positive
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded the Long-Term Issuer Default Rating
(IDR) of Carnival Corporation, Carnival plc, and Carnival Holdings
(Bermuda) II Limited (together 'Carnival') to 'BB+', from 'BB'.
Fitch also affirmed the first lien term loans and senior secured
notes at 'BBB-'', with a Recovery Rating of RR1, and upgraded the
rating on the senior unsecured notes to 'BB+'/RR4, from 'BB'/RR4.
Fitch also assigned a 'BB+'/RR4 rating to the proposed issuance of
2031 senior unsecured notes. The Rating Outlook is Positive.
The Fitch-calculated 2025 estimated EBITDA leverage of 4.1x for
Carnival is in line with the 'BB+' range. Carnival benefits from
its scale, high operating margins, strong liquidity, and its
expectations of continued deleveraging. Potential risks include an
economic downturn that reduces leisure demand and higher fuel
prices.
The Positive Outlook reflects Fitch's belief that solid booking
activity will continue and management's commitment to debt
reduction will lead to stronger credit metrics.
Key Rating Drivers
Cruise Demand Remains Strong: Cruise companies benefit from
offering a better value proposition relative to resort vacations
and having a large base of repeat customers. Carnival, along with
Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Lines, has announced record
bookings for both 2025 and 2026. The long-term nature of cruise
bookings provides strong visibility, as cancellations are not
typically material. Carnival is guiding net yield growth to rise by
approximately 4.7% (constant currency) in 2025.
Continued Debt Reduction: Carnival's debt materially increased
during the Covid-19 pandemic to fund ship deliveries and cover
operating costs. Fitch expects debt will decline to $27 billion in
2025, from $35.6 billion in 2022. Fitch also expects FCF growth and
management's commitment to investment-grade metrics to lead to a
rapid improvement in credit metrics. The decline in new ship
deliveries over the next three years should lead to greater FCF
growth and further debt reduction. Carnival also has approximately
$1.1 billion of convertible notes, which Fitch expects to be
largely settled through share exchanges.
Increased FCF Growth: Fitch expects EBITDA growth, lower interest
costs from debt reduction, and lower growth capex to result in
higher FCF through the forecast horizon. Fitch estimates FCF will
grow to $1.6 billion in 2025 and materially thereafter. Carnival
should also benefit from higher customer deposits given the
continued growth in bookings. Fitch does not anticipate any
material shareholder returns until the company achieves
investment-grade status.
Leader in Cruise Industry: Carnival is the world's largest cruise
operator with multiple brands. Due to its brand acceptance and
market leading capacity, the company holds the top market share in
the North American and European markets, which contribute most of
its EBITDA. Historically, the company's scale has been a credit
positive, but pandemic-related disruptions severely impacted
Carnival due to its high fixed-cost structure and resulted in
delayed ship deliveries. Under normal cruise operating conditions,
Fitch considers Carnival's scale a positive factor.
Moderate Industry Capacity Growth: Capacity growth is expected to
be somewhat muted over the next several years given the reduction
of new ship orders during the pandemic, as industry credit metrics
weakened. However, Fitch believes lower supply growth will support
net yield growth in the near term. Recent announcements of new ship
builds will mostly not affect the market until the end of the
decade, although capacity growth would still be modest.
Favorable Industry Dynamics: The top players in the cruise line
industry benefit from high barriers to entry due to significant
ship capex spend, low global market penetration rates relative to
other leisure activities, mobile assets that allow companies to
move to other markets when existing markets are facing uncertain
economic or geopolitical issues, and favorable tax treatment given
their incorporation outside the U.S.
Peer Analysis
Carnival is the largest cruise ship operator in terms of berths and
passengers carried compared to Royal Caribbean Inc. (NR) and
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Ltd. (NR). Carnival is also
compared to other high-'BB' and low-'BBB' leisure credits, such as
Hyatt Hotels Corporation (BBB-/Stable) and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts
Inc. (BB+/Stable).
Carnival has materially greater scale and geographic
diversification than its comparable peers, although leverage is
higher. Fitch believes Carnival's scale and FCF generation will
result in materially improved credit metrics that will be more
indicative of an investment-grade credit over the forecast
horizon.
Key Assumptions
- Passengers carried expected to grow in the low-single digits
during the forecast horizon. Occupancy expected to increase to 106%
in 2026 and beyond;
- Net yields are expected to increase 4% in 2025 and in the low -to
mid-single digits over the remainder of the forecast horizon, which
is below management guidance;
- Adjusted cruise costs per available lower berth days, excluding
fuel, are forecast to increase in the low- to mid-single digits
over the forecast horizon;
- Capex including new ship deliveries are expected to drop to $3.7
billion in 2025 and $3.6 billion in 2026;
- There are no assumptions for share repurchases, common dividends,
acquisitions or asset sales;
- FCF is expected to be applied to debt reduction through the
forecast horizon.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
- EBITDA Leverage sustaining above 4.5x;
- Economic or geopolitical event that lasts for an extended period
and results in a deterioration of the capital structure (i.e.
increased debt, use of secured or priority guaranteed financing);
- A more aggressive financial policy that includes accelerated ship
building plans or increased shareholder allocations that would
allow for credit metrics to become vulnerable during a weaker
economic environment.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
- Sustainable positive FCF with application to debt payment;
- EBITDA leverage approaching 4.0x;
- A debt structure that does not include secured or guaranteed
debt;
- (CFO-Capex)/Debt is greater than 10%.
Liquidity and Debt Structure
Carnival had $833 million of cash and $2.9 billion of borrowings
available (subject to foreign exchange movements) under its current
RCF as of Feb. 28, 2025, maturing in Aug. 2027. The company also
had $7.8 billion of undrawn export credit facilities as of Feb. 28,
2025, to fund ship deliveries planned through 2033. Fitch expects
Carnival to be FCF positive through the forecast horizon, which
further enhances liquidity.
Proceeds from the proposed $1 billion senior unsecured note
issuance due 2031 will be used to redeem the remaining principal
outstanding on the 7.625% senior unsecured notes due 2026.
Carnival has material debt repayments due over the next several
years, including $4.9 billion due in 2027 and $6.7 billion due in
2028 pro forma the refinancing. Fitch believes debt reduction,
potential conversion of convertible debt exchanged into shares, and
refinancing opportunities should allow the company to address its
debt repayment schedule.
Fitch expects new ship deliveries to decline over the forecast
horizon. The company plans no ship additions in 2026, and will add
one each in 2027 and 2028. The company recently announced three new
ships for the Carnival brand and two ships for the Aida brand, but
the first delivery is not until 2029.
Issuer Profile
Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc (together, Carnival) is the
largest global cruise company and among the largest leisure travel
companies, with a portfolio of world-class cruise lines.
MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS AND SECTOR FORECASTS
Fitch's latest quarterly Global Corporates Macro and Sector
Forecasts data file which aggregates key data points used in its
credit analysis. Fitch's macroeconomic forecasts, commodity price
assumptions, default rate forecasts, sector key performance
indicators and sector-level forecasts are among the data items
included.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Recovery Prior
----------- ------ -------- -----
Carnival plc LT IDR BB+ Upgrade BB
senior unsecured LT BB+ Upgrade RR4 BB
Carnival Corporation LT IDR BB+ Upgrade BB
senior unsecured LT BB+ New Rating RR4
senior unsecured LT BB+ Upgrade RR4 BB
senior secured LT BBB- Affirmed RR1 BBB-
Carnival Holdings
(Bermuda) II Limited LT IDR BB+ Upgrade BB
senior secured LT BB+ Upgrade RR4 BB
HOSPITAL PIPELINE: Azets Holding Named as Administrators
--------------------------------------------------------
Hospital Pipeline Installations Limited was placed into
administration proceedings on May 9, 2025 and has ceased trading
with immediate effect. Blair Milne and James Fennessey of Azets
Holding Limited were appointed as administrators on May 9, 2025.
Hospital Pipeline engaged in specialized construction activities.
The Company's registered office is at 2 Duke Street, Paisley, PA2
6RF. Its principal trading address is at 2 Duke Street, Paisley,
Renfrewshire, PA2 6RF.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Blair Milne
James Fennessey
Azets Holding Limited
Titanium 1, King's Inch Place
Renfrew, PA4 8WF
For further details, contact:
The Joint Administrators
Tel No: 0141 886 6644
Alternative contact:
Michael Carr-White
Tel: 0141 886 6644
Email: martin.mcgrellis@azets.co.uk
IOR GROUP: Quantuma Advisory Named as Administrators
----------------------------------------------------
IOR Group Limited was placed into administration proceedings in the
High Court of Justice Business and Property Courts of England and
Wales, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD), Court Number:
CR-2025-002859, and Kelly Mitchell and Andrew Watling of Quantuma
Advisory Limited were appointed as administrators on May 9, 2025.
IOR Group engaged in specialised construction activities.
The Company's registered office is at 98 Kew Road, Richmond, TW9
2PQ (in the process of being changed to Office D, Beresford House,
Town Quay, Southampton, SO14 2AQ).
Its principal trading address is at Ground Floor, Bronze Building,
The Forge, 105 Sumner St, London, SE1 9HZ
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Andrew Watling
Kelly Mitchell
Quantuma Advisory Limited
Office D, Beresford House
Town Quay, Southampton, SO14 2AQ
Any person who requires further information may contact
Bethany Oldham
Tel No: 02382-357953
Email: bethany.oldham@quantuma.com
LHP SOLUTIONS: CG&Co Named as Administrators
--------------------------------------------
LHP Solutions Limited was placed into administration proceedings in
the Court of Session, No COS-P369-25, and Edward Avery-Gee and
Daniel Richardson of CG & Co were appointed as administrators on
May 9, 2025.
LHP Solutions engaged in the buying and selling of own real estate
and letting and operating of own or leased real estate.
The Company's registered office is at Clyde Offices, 2nd Floor 48
West George Street Glasgow G2 1BP.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Edward Avery-Gee
Daniel Richardson
C/o CG&Co
27 Byrom Street Manchester
M3 4PF
For further details, contact:
Clara Van Biesebroeck
Tel No: 0161 358 0210
Email: info@cg-recovery.com
MACQUARIE AIRFINANCE: Fitch Alters Outlook on 'BB+' IDR to Positive
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings
(IDRs) of Macquarie AirFinance Holdings Limited (MAHL) and its
rated subsidiaries, Macquarie Aircraft Leasing Inc. (MAL) and
Macquarie Aerospace Finance UK Limited (MAFU), at 'BB+'. The Rating
Outlook has been revised to Positive from Stable. Fitch has also
affirmed MAHL's senior unsecured debt at 'BB+'.
These rating actions are being taken in conjunction with Fitch's
global aircraft leasing sector review, covering 11 publicly rated
firms. For more information on the sector review, please see "Fitch
Ratings Completes Aircraft Lessor Peer Review, Sector Outlook
Remains Neutral,".
Key Rating Drivers
Improved Scale and Earnings Consistency: The Positive Outlook
reflects MAHL's improved scale and enhanced earnings consistency,
which Fitch expects will be sustained through various market and
economic cycles, including a moderation in travel demand due to a
dampening of global economic growth.
A one-notch upgrade of the rating over the next 12-24 months could
be supported by solid execution with respect to growth targets and
long-term strategic financial objectives, including pretax return
on average assets sustained above 1.5%, while maintaining leverage
below 3.0x, unsecured debt to total debt above 50%, and a liquidity
coverage ratio above 1.0x. An upgrade is also contingent on MAHL
maintaining new technology aircraft above 50% of the portfolio,
while further lengthening the weighted average lease profile and
portfolio aircraft age to align more closely with investment-grade
peers.
Moderate Franchise: MAHL's ratings reflect its position as a
global, full-service aircraft operating lease platform, its
portfolio focus on relatively liquid, narrowbody aircraft, its
appropriate current and targeted leverage, the absence of near-term
debt maturities, and solid liquidity metrics. The ratings also
consider MAHL's affiliation with long-term equity holders,
specifically Macquarie Group Limited (A/Stable), as well as its
management's depth, experience, and track record in managing
aircraft assets.
Weaker Earnings Profile; Sector Constraints: Rating constraints
include a weaker but improving earnings profile, moderate exposure
to older aircraft, a focus on the sale-leaseback market, which is
highly competitive, and shorter average remaining lease terms
relative to higher-rated peers. Fitch also notes the potential
governance risks relative to larger, public peers, including the
lack of independent board members and partial ownership by pension
funds.
Rating constraints applicable to the aircraft leasing industry more
broadly include the monoline nature of the business, vulnerability
to exogenous shocks, potential exposure to residual value risk, and
sensitivity to oil prices, inflation and unemployment, which
negatively impact travel demand. Constraints also include a
reliance on wholesale funding sources and meaningful competition.
Improved Asset Quality: MAHL's portfolio quality improved
meaningfully following the acquisition of the ALAFCO Aviation Lease
and Finance Company K.S.C.P. (ALAFCO) portfolio in August 2024,
resulting in an increase in portfolio liquidity. The WA age was 9.3
years as of Dec. 31, 2024 (3Q25), which aligns with management's
target of below 10 years and is down from 11.4 years a year ago.
The WA remaining lease term improved to 5.7 years, up from 4.2
years a year ago, enhancing cash flow stability. Highly liquid,
tier 1 aircraft comprised 74.4% of the portfolio, up from 67.5% the
previous year, as current technology aircraft were
opportunistically sold in a strong secondary market. MAHL sold
eight aircraft and six engines with an average age of 21 years in
9M25, generating proceeds of $119.7 million, with an average gain
of 68.9% of net book value (NBV).
For 9M25, the company determined there were no aircraft that had a
book value exceeding its recoverable value, and therefore no
impairment charges were taken. Given the increased lease and
trading activity seen in the market, Fitch does not expect material
impairment charges on MAHL's core new technology narrowbody fleet
going forward.
Improved Profitability: The company reported a pretax return on
average assets of 0.6%, up from a loss of 0.4% during the same
period. MAHL benefited from revenue expansion due to the recent
acquisition of 75 aircraft from ALAFCO, partially offset by
elevated funding costs associated with a larger portfolio and
higher rates on debt facilities. Net spread (lease yield minus
funding costs) was 5.5% in 9M25, unchanged from a year ago, but
down from the average of 8.8% for FY21-FY24. Fitch expects
economies of scale to reduce the SG&A margin, while net spreads are
likely to trend between 5.5% and 7.0% over the Outlook horizon.
Historically, operating performance has been somewhat susceptible
to remarketing risk, given MAHL's shorter WA lease term compared to
higher-rated peers. A further lengthening of MAHL's lease maturity
profile would be viewed favorably by Fitch, as it would enhance
operating cash flow predictability.
Appropriate Leverage: Leverage on a gross debt to tangible equity
basis was 2.8x at Dec. 31, 2024. With the $750 million capital
investment by shareholders to support the company's growth between
May 2022 and May 2024, leverage is expected to remain below
management's long-term target of 3.0x, which Fitch believes is
appropriate in the context of MAHL's portfolio liquidity profile.
Improved Funding Flexibility: As of Dec. 31, 2024, unsecured debt
constituted 67.9% of total debt, an improvement from 54% a year ago
and 28% in 2022. Secured debt to total assets was 19.2%, remaining
below management's long-term target of 30%. In March 2025, the
company completed a $650 million, three-year, 5.2% senior unsecured
debt issuance. Proceeds were used to repay outstanding borrowings,
including the redemption of its inaugural $500 million, five-year,
8.375% senior unsecured debt, to reduce funding costs. Fitch views
MAHL's ability to access the unsecured markets on more economic
terms favorably. The increase in the unsecured funding mix grows
the pool of unencumbered assets and enhances funding flexibility.
Solid Liquidity: Liquidity included $268.9 million in cash and
$1.22 billion of undrawn committed capacity under its revolving
credit facility as of Dec. 31, 2024. Fitch projects operating cash
flows of approximately $271.3 million over the next 12 months,
although this could vary depending on portfolio expansion, aircraft
sales, and collections. Together, these liquidity sources provide
2.3x coverage of $748.4 million of purchase obligations over the
next 12 months as of Dec. 31, 2024, which is above the peer
average. Fitch expects liquidity coverage ratios for MAHL to remain
at or above 1.5x over time.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
A revision of the Outlook to Stable could arise from failure to
execute on planned growth targets, while maintaining leverage below
3.0x, unsecured debt to total debt above 50%, and a liquidity ratio
above 1.0x. Beyond that, a downgrade of the ratings could be driven
by:
- Macroeconomic and/or geopolitical-driven headwinds that pressure
airlines and lead to additional lease restructurings, rejections,
lessee defaults, and increased losses;
- An inability to improve scale and a weakening of the company's
long-term cash flow generation, profitability, and liquidity
position;
- Higher impairments or a sustained increase in leverage above
4.0x;
- A deviation in funding strategy leading to secured debt to total
assets exceeding MAHL's internal target of 30% or a notably lower
anticipated proportion of unsecured debt to total debt;
- A weakening in portfolio quality, in particular new technology
aircraft representing notably less than the 50% targeted
communicated by management.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
A one-notch upgrade over the next 12-24 months could be contingent
upon solid execution with respect to growth targets and long-term
strategic financial objectives, including sustained pretax return
on average assets above 1.5%, while maintaining leverage below
2.7x, unsecured debt above 50% of total debt, and liquidity
coverage above 1.2x. An upgrade of MAHL's ratings could also be
contingent upon:
- Reduced exposure to weaker airlines, maintenance of an impairment
ratio below 1%;
- Further lengthening of the WA lease profile and a reduction in
the WA age of the fleet more in line with investment-grade peers;
- Increases in the proportion of tier 1 aircraft while maintaining
its new technology, narrow body focus.
DEBT AND OTHER INSTRUMENT RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
The equalization of the unsecured debt ratings with MAHL's
Long-Term IDR reflects the unsecured funding mix, as well as the
availability of sufficient unencumbered assets, which provide
support to unsecured creditors and suggest average recovery
prospects in a stressed scenario.
The senior unsecured debt ratings are primarily sensitive to
changes in MAHL's Long-Term IDR and secondarily to the relative
recovery prospects of the instruments. A decline in unencumbered
asset coverage, combined with a material increase in secured debt,
could result in the notching of the unsecured debt down from the
Long-Term IDR.
SUBSIDIARY AND AFFILIATE RATINGS: KEY RATING DRIVERS
The Long-Term IDRs assigned to MAL and MAFU are equalized with that
of MAHL given that they are wholly owned subsidiaries of the
company.
SUBSIDIARY AND AFFILIATE RATINGS: RATING SENSITIVITIES
The ratings assigned to MAL and MAFU are primarily sensitive to
changes in MAHL's Long-Term IDR and are expected to move in
tandem.
ADJUSTMENTS
- The Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) has been assigned in line
with the implied SCP. The Business Profile was identified as a
relevant negative factor in the assessment.
- The Business Profile score has been assigned below the implied
score due to the following adjustment reason: Market position
(negative).
- The Asset Quality score has been assigned below the implied score
due to the following adjustment reason: Risk profile and business
model (negative).
- The Earnings & Profitability score has been assigned below the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: Earnings
stability (negative).
- The Capitalization & Leverage score has been assigned below the
implied score due to the following adjustment reason: Risk profile
and business model (negative).
- The Funding, Liquidity & Coverage score has been assigned below
the implied score due to the following adjustment reason: Funding
flexibility (negative).
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Macquarie AirFinance
Holdings Limited LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
senior unsecured LT BB+ Affirmed BB+
Macquarie Aircraft
Leasing Inc. LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
Macquarie Aerospace
Finance UK Limited LT IDR BB+ Affirmed BB+
MANTA SYSTEMS: RSM UK Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------
Manta Systems UK Limited was placed into administration proceedings
in the High Court of Justice, The Business and Property Courts in
Leeds, Court Number: CR-2025-LDS-000437, and Lee Van Lockwood and
Gareth Harris of RSM UK Restructuring Advisory LLP were appointed
as administrators on April 29, 2025.
Manta Systems engaged in specialized construction activities; and
renting and leasing of other machinery, equipment and tangible
goods.
The Company's registered office and principal trading address is at
Beaumont House, Beaumont Street, Darlington, DL1 5RW.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Lee Van Lockwood
Gareth Harris
RSM UK Restructuring Advisory LLP
Central Square, 5th Floor
29 Wellington Street,
Leeds LS1 4DL
Correspondence address & contact details of case manager:
Gordon Bettany
RSM UK Restructuring Advisory LLP
Landmark, St Peter's Square
1 Oxford Street,
Manchester, M1 4PB
Tel No: 0113 285 5000
Contact details for the Joint Administrators:
Tel No: 0113 285 5000
MAVEN LEISURE: Interpath Advisory Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------------------
Maven Leisure Limited was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice, Business and Property Courts of England
and Wales, Insolvency and Companies List (ChD), No CR-2025-003182,
and Samuel Birchall and Christopher Robert Pole of Interpath
Advisory, Interpath Ltd, were appointed as administrators on May 9,
2025.
Maven Leisure engaged in business support service activities.
The Company's registered office is at Interpath Ltd, 10 Fleet
Place, London, EC4M 7RB.
Its principal trading address is at 8 St. Martin`s Place, London,
WC2N 4JH.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Samuel Birchall
Christopher Robert Pole
Interpath Advisory, Interpath Ltd
10 Fleet Place,
London EC4M 7RB
For further details, contact:
Seb Wharton
Tel No: 0161 529 9026
MAVEN PREMIUM: Interpath Advisory Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------------------
Maven Premium Sports Bars Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice, Business and Property
Courts of England and Wales, Insolvency and Companies List (ChD) No
CR-2025-003183, and Samuel Birchall and Christopher Robert Pole of
Interpath Advisory, Interpath Ltd, were appointed as administrators
on May 9, 2025.
Maven Premium specialized in business support service activities.
Its registered office is at Interpath Ltd, 10 Fleet Place, London,
EC4M 7RB
Its principal trading address is at 30 Old Jewry, City of London,
London, EC2R 8DQ
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Samuel Birchall
Christopher Robert Pole
Interpath Advisory, Interpath Ltd
10 Fleet Place,
London EC4M 7RB
For further details, contact:
Seb Wharton
Tel No: 0161 529 9026
MOUNT PACKAGING: Philmore & Co Named as Administrators
------------------------------------------------------
Mount Packaging Systems Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts in Leeds, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD) Court Number:
CR-2025-LDS-000459, and Jonathan Paul Philmore of Philmore & Co Ltd
was appointed as administrators on May 7, 2025.
Mount Packaging is a manufacturer of other special-purpose
machinery and other service activities.
The Company's registered office is at Yorkshire House, 7 South
Lane, Holmfirth, HD9 1HN
Its principal trading address is at Shawcross Business Park, Owl
Lane, Dewsbury, WF12 7RF
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Jonathan Paul Philmore
Philmore & Co Ltd
Yorkshire House,
7 South Lane
Holmfirth, HD9 1HN
For further details, contact:
Liam Cockfield
Email: enquiries@philmoreandco.com
Tel No: 01484 461959
NEWGATE FUNDING 2007-2: Fitch Affirms B+ Rating on Class F Debt
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Newgate Funding Plc 2007 series.
Fitch has revised the Outlooks on 2007-1 and 2007-2 class Db, E, F
notes to Negative from Stable.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Newgate Funding Plc
Series 2007-1
Class A3 XS0287753775 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class Ba XS0287757255 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class Bb XS0287757412 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class Cb XS0287759624 LT A+sf Affirmed A+sf
Class Db XS0287767304 LT BBBsf Affirmed BBBsf
Class E XS0287776636 LT BBB-sf Affirmed BBB-sf
Class F XS0287778095 LT BB+sf Affirmed BB+sf
Class Ma XS0287755713 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class Mb XS0287756877 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Newgate Funding Plc
Series 2007-3
Class A2b 651357AF2 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class A3 651357AG0 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class Ba 651357AH8 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class Bb 651357AJ4 LT AA+sf Affirmed AA+sf
Class Cb 651357AK1 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
Class D 651357AL9 LT A+sf Affirmed A+sf
Class E XS0329655129 LT A+sf Affirmed A+sf
Newgate Funding Plc
Series 2007-2
Class A3 XS0304280059 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Class Bb XS0304284630 LT AAsf Affirmed AAsf
Class Cb XS0304285959 LT A-sf Affirmed A-sf
Class Db XS0304286254 LT BBB-sf Affirmed BBB-sf
Class E XS0304280489 LT BB+sf Affirmed BB+sf
Class F XS0304281024 LT B+sf Affirmed B+sf
Class M XS0304280133 LT AAAsf Affirmed AAAsf
Transaction Summary
The three transactions are seasoned securitisations of mixed pools
containing mainly residential non-conforming owner-occupied
mortgage loans with a few residential buy-to let mortgage loans.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Asset Performance Deterioration: Since the last review, late-stage
arrears have increased in each transaction: by 6.9% for 2007-1,
4.2% for 2007-2 and 5.2% for 2007-3. This has resulted in an
increased weighted average foreclosure frequency (WAFF) being
applied in Fitch's asset modelling. If further loans move into
arrears, or those already in arrears accrue higher arrears
balances, Fitch's WAFF may increase at future rating reviews. The
continued performance deterioration and build up in late-stage
arrears drives the Negative Outlooks in 2007-1 and 2007-2. 2007-3
shows less sensitivity given its larger reserve fund.
Weak Recovery Performance: Transaction reporting suggests a loss
severity of around 25% for all three transactions, which is
significantly weaker than that estimated in Fitch's ResiGlobal: UK
model. Fitch examined the weighted average recovery rate (WARR)
sensitivities to align its base case with the observed performance.
The notes' model-implied ratings (MIRs) are sensitive to a lower
WARR so the ratings on the class B, C, D, E and F notes are up to
four notches lower than their MIRs.
Increasing Credit Enhancement: Credit enhancement (CE) has
increased in each transaction due to the amortisation of the asset
pool alongside a non-amortising reserve fund. This is most
beneficial for the senior notes as the notes are currently
amortising sequentially. The buildup of CE has offset the increase
in expected loss resulting from the higher WAFF and contributes to
the affirmations.
Excessive Counterparty Exposure: CE for 2007-3's class E notes is
solely from the transaction's reserve fund held by Barclays Bank
Plc (A+/Stable) as there are no collateralised subordinated notes.
The notes' rating is therefore capped at and linked to Barclays'
Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR), reflecting their excessive
dependence on Barclays.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
The transaction's performance may be affected by changes in market
conditions and economic environment. Weakening economic performance
is strongly correlated to increasing levels of delinquencies and
defaults that could reduce CE available to the notes.
Additionally, unanticipated declines in recoveries could result
from lower net proceeds, which may make certain notes susceptible
to negative rating action depending on the extent of the decline in
recoveries. Fitch conducted sensitivity analyses by stressing each
transaction's WAFF and WARR assumptions and examining the rating
implications for the notes. A 15% increase in the WAFF and a 15%
decrease in the WARR indicates downgrades of no more than six
notches for 2007-1, six notches for 2007-2 and no downgrades for
2007-3.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
Stable to improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies
and defaults would lead to increasing CE and potential upgrades.
Fitch tested an additional rating sensitivity scenario by applying
a decrease in the WAFF of 15% and an increase in the WARR of 15%.
The results indicate upgrades of up to four notches for 2007-3 and
six notches for 2007-1 and 2007-2.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset
pools and the transactions. Fitch has not reviewed the results of
any third party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.
Fitch did not undertake a review of the information provided about
the underlying asset pools ahead of the transaction's initial
closing. The subsequent performance of the transactions over the
years is consistent with the agency's expectations given the
operating environment and Fitch is therefore satisfied that the
asset pool information relied upon for its initial rating analysis
was adequately reliable.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
Newgate Funding Plc Series 2007-1, 2007-2, 2007-3 has an ESG
Relevance Score of '4' for Customer Welfare - Fair Messaging,
Privacy & Data Security due to the underlying asset pools with
limited affordability checks and self-certified income, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.
Newgate Funding Plc Series 2007-1, 2007-2, 2007-3 has an ESG
Relevance Score of '4' for Human Rights, Community Relations,
Access & Affordability due to a material concentration of
interest-only loans, which has a negative impact on the credit
profile, and is relevant to the ratings in conjunction with other
factors.
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
PATERSON ASSOCIATES: Opus Restructuring Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------------------------
Paterson Associates (Ne) Limited was placed into administration
proceedings in the High Court of Justice Business and Property
Courts in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, Insolvency & Companies List (ChD)
Court Number: CR-2025-000060, and Mark Nicholas Ranson and Emma
Mifsud of Opus Restructuring LLP were appointed as administrators
on May 7, 2025.
Paterson Associates fka Paterson Harkin Limited engaged in
specialized construction activities.
The Company's registered office and principal trading address is at
15 Britannia House, Brignell Road, Middlesbrough, TS2 1PS.
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Mark Nicholas Ranson
Emma Mifsud
Opus Restructuring LLP
Fourth Floor, One Park Row Leeds
West Yorkshire, LS1 5HN
For further details, contact:
Theo Skipper
Tel No: 01908 752 944
Email: theo.skipper@opusllp.com
SMALL BUSINESS 2025-1: Fitch Assigns BB+sf Final Rating on C Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Small Business Origination Loan Trust
2025-1 DAC (SBOLT 25-1) notes final ratings.
Entity/Debt Rating Prior
----------- ------ -----
Small Business
Origination Loan
Trust 2025-1 DAC
A-Loan LT NRsf New Rating NR(EXP)sf
B XS3045380824 LT BBB+sf New Rating BBB+(EXP)sf
C XS3045381046 LT BB+sf New Rating BB+(EXP)sf
R XS3045381475 LT NRsf New Rating NR(EXP)sf
Z XS3045381129 LT NRsf New Rating NR(EXP)sf
Transaction Summary
SBOLT 25-1 is a true-sale securitisation of a GBP399.97 million
static pool of UK mostly unsecured SME loans, originated through
the marketplace lending platform of Funding Circle Ltd (FC, the
servicer) and sold by Glencar Investments 49 DAC. The transaction
is the third issuance from this platform to be rated by Fitch, and
the ninth overall.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
SME Borrower Default Probability: Fitch analysed the default risk
of the underlying SME portfolio based on FC's static default
vintage data separately disclosed by their internal risk band. For
the securitised portfolio including 'A+' to 'D' risk bands Fitch
determined an average one-year probability of default (PD) at
5.1%.
Unsecured SME Loans: The transaction's underlying loans are backed
by personal guarantees granted by the owners or directors of the
SME borrowers, except for a minor portion of the portfolio (GBP10.4
million) that benefits from a debenture granted by the SME
borrowers themselves. Fitch analysed the static recovery vintage
data and determined an average recovery rate at close to 35%,
expected to be uniformly distributed over five years following a
borrower default. Waterfall Eden Master Fund, Ltd may also purchase
defaulted loans at a price no less than 36.5% of their par amount.
Granular Portfolio: The collateral portfolio features low single
obligor concentration levels, with the top 10 obligors accounting
for 1.3% of the portfolio balance. Industry concentration is more
in line with other SME portfolios, with the largest three
industries accounting for 43.8% of the portfolio balance, led by
property and construction (18.1%), followed by professional and
business support (12.9%) and manufacturing and engineering
(12.8%).
Sensitivity to Pro-Rata Period: The transaction will feature
pro-rata amortisation of the notes at closing until the breach of a
sequential-pay trigger. The pro-rata amortisation is based on the
note balance net of the corresponding principal deficiency ledger
but also includes the subordinated notes. Pro-rata structures
generally leak proceeds to subordinated notes and are therefore at
higher risk of sequential amortisation. Under pro-rata structures,
ratings are more sensitive to the back-loaded default timing
assumption as it determines the timing of the continued leakage of
principal to subordinated notes.
Consistent with the historical performance default data provided by
FC for its loan book and its previous securitisations, Fitch
applied some defaults also during the first year of the
transaction's life under its back-loaded default timing assumption.
This approach is also in line with the Fitch's criteria for
portfolios of consumer loans with similar granularity and tenor.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade
Weakening asset performance is strongly correlated to increasing
levels of delinquencies and defaults that could reduce credit
enhancement available to the notes. Additionally, unanticipated
declines in recoveries could also result in lower net proceeds,
which may make certain notes susceptible to negative rating action,
depending on the extent of the decline in those recoveries.
An increase of the rating default rate (RDR) by 25% of the mean
default rate and a 25% decrease of the rating recovery rate (RRR)
at all rating levels would lead to downgrades of up to three
notches for the notes.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade
After the end of the pro-rata period, upgrades may occur on
better-than-initially expected asset performance, leading to higher
credit enhancement and excess spread available to cover losses in
the remaining portfolio.
A reduction of the RDR by 25% of the mean default rate and a 25%
increase of the RRR at all rating levels would lead to upgrades of
up to one notch for the notes.
SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS
CRITERIA VARIATION
Fitch calibrated its correlation assumption to ensure that the
default rate for the overall portfolio at 'AAsf' covers the 32.7%
peak of delinquencies observed in FC's loan book during the
pandemic stress. This criteria variation has no impact on the
ratings of the notes.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.
DATA ADEQUACY
Fitch reviewed the results of a third party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information, and concluded that there were no
findings that affected the rating analysis.
Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless
otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not
inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the
relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision.
TTD TRADES: WSM Marks Named as Administrators
---------------------------------------------
TTD Trades Limited was placed into administration proceedings in
the High Court of Justice, No 007785 of 2024, and Andrew John
Whelan of WSM Marks Bloom LLP was appointed as administrators on
May 7, 2025.
TTD Trades engaged in wholesale of clothing and footwear.
The Company's registered office is at Unit 2 Spinnaker Court, 1C
Becketts Place, Hampton Wick, Kingston upon Thames KT1 4EQ,
formerly Riverbank House, 1 Putney Bridge Approach, London SW6 3JD
Its principal trading address is at 123 King Street, London W6 9JG
The joint administrators can be reached at:
Andrew John Whelan
WSM Marks Bloom LLP
Unit 2 Spinnaker Court
1C Becketts Place
Hampton Wick,
Kingston upon Thames KT1 4EQ
For further details, contact:
Jack Darby
Email: insolvency@wsm.co.uk
*********
S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N
Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
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Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.
Copyright 2025. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754.
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