/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCREUR_Public/210126.mbx        T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                          E U R O P E

          Tuesday, January 26, 2021, Vol. 22, No. 13

                           Headlines



A Z E R B A I J A N

AZERBAIJAN: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable & Affirms 'BB+/B' SCRs
PASHA BANK: S&P Affirms 'B+/B' ICRs on Expected Capital Increases


B U L G A R I A

[*] BULGARIA: Hospitality Sector Wants Loan Moratorium Extended


F R A N C E

CAB SELARL: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR on Expected Refinancing
FAURECIA SE: S&P Rates New EUR190MM Secured Debt Add-On 'BB'


G E R M A N Y

LUFTHANSA: Losing EUR1 Million Every Two Hours, CEO Says


G R E E C E

GREECE: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Stable


I R E L A N D

CIFC EUROPEAN III: Fitch Assigns Final B Rating on Cl. F Debt
HARVEST CLO XV: Fitch Affirms B- Rating on Class F-R Notes
PENTA CLO 5: Moody's Assigns (P)B3 Rating on Class F-R Notes


K A Z A K H S T A N

FINCRAFT GROUP: S&P Upgrades LT ICR to 'B+' on Bond Buyback


N E T H E R L A N D S

PROMONTORIA HOLDING 264: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR on Solid Liquidity
SIGNATURE FOODS: S&P Assigns Prelim. 'B' LT ICR, Outlook Stable
WINTERSHALL DEA 2: Fitch Gives Final 'BB+' to EUR850MM Notes


S E R B I A

SRPSKA FABRIKA: Serbia In Talks with Potential Investors


T U R K E Y

TURKEY: S&P Affirms B+/B Sovereign Credit Ratings, Outlook Stable


U N I T E D   K I N G D O M

CONDER ALLSLADE: Enters Administration Following Losses
DEBENHAMS PLC: Booho Buys Brands for GBP55MM, 118 Stores to Close
MARKET GATES: Goes Into Administration, Business as Usual
SIGNATURE AVIATION: Moody's Puts Ba3 CFR on Review for Downgrade

                           - - - - -


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A Z E R B A I J A N
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AZERBAIJAN: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable & Affirms 'BB+/B' SCRs
---------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings, on Jan. 22, 2021, revised its outlook on
Azerbaijan to stable from negative and affirmed its long- and
short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at
'BB+/B'.

Outlook

S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our expectation that the
ceasefire agreement between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Russia will
broadly hold, underpinning a reduction in war-related security,
financial sector, and balance-of-payments risks.

"It also reflects our view that a rebound in economic activity and
comparatively higher hydrocarbon prices will, over the next 12
months, prevent Azerbaijan's fiscal and external positions from
deteriorating materially from strong levels."

Downside scenario

S&P said, "We could lower the ratings if another outbreak of
military confrontation leads to a deterioration in Azerbaijan's
security situation, its balance of payments position, or the
stability of the domestic financial system. This is not our
baseline scenario.

"Beyond the recent conflict, we could also lower the ratings if
Azerbaijan's fiscal and external balances weaken more than we
project." This could happen, for example, as a result of a
substantial decline in hydrocarbon revenue, increased fiscal
pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic slowdown, or
higher government capital expenditure compared with our baseline
assumptions.

Rating pressure could also build if Azerbaijan's real per capita
GDP growth falls further below that of peers with similar levels of
economic development.

Upside scenario

Conversely, S&P could consider an upgrade if external surpluses
were higher than we expect, resulting in further external asset
accumulation. This could happen, for example, if hydrocarbon
revenue increases markedly.

Ratings upside could also build if the government implements
reforms addressing some of Azerbaijan's structural impediments,
including constraints to monetary policy effectiveness stemming
from high financial dollarization and a still-weak domestic banking
system.

Rationale

A six-week-long war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Nagorno
Karabakh region ended on Nov. 10, 2020, with a ceasefire agreement
brokered by Russia. Under the peace deal, Russia has deployed about
2,000 peacekeepers to the region for at least five years. S&P said,
"Despite many still-unresolved political issues and incidents of
sporadic fighting, we expect the ceasefire will broadly hold, with
Russia's peacekeeping operations helping prevent another
large-scale armed conflict. Accordingly, we do not expect material
economic and financial sector risks to Azerbaijan's credit profile
from the conflict over our rating outlook horizon." Despite
heightened geopolitical uncertainties, there has not been any
increased conversion of domestic residents' savings to foreign
currency, or their outright withdrawal from the banking system.

S&P said, "We consider that Azerbaijan's fiscal and external stock
positions remain among the strongest of sovereigns we rate in the
'BB' category, despite lower hydrocarbon prices and the
COVID-19-induced economic slowdown. Large liquid government assets,
projected at an average of about 74% of GDP in 2021-2024, will
continue to provide a buffer against economic and financial shocks.
Reflecting our oil price and production assumptions, and
considering Azerbaijan's participation in the OPEC+ production cut
agreement, we expect external receipts and fiscal revenue will
gradually rise over the medium term. We expect that government's
import-driven reconstruction measures in the territories
surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh will, for now, have a moderate impact
on fiscal and external flows.

"Our ratings on Azerbaijan remain constrained by still-weak
institutional effectiveness, the country's narrow and concentrated
economic base with a moderate growth trend, and limited monetary
policy flexibility."

Institutional and economic profile: Economic activity will rebound
gradually, subject to the prolonged impact of the pandemic and
global oil demand

-- S&P expects the ceasefire agreement reached between Azerbaijan,
Armenia, and Russia to end the war in Nagorno-Karabakh will broadly
hold.

-- Following the COVID-19-induced shocks and oil price collapse,
Azerbaijan's economy will gradually rebound from 2021, supported by
a recovery in domestic consumption aided by fiscal stimulus, higher
public investment, and an increase in hydrocarbon exports.

-- S&P projects GDP will expand by 2.1% in 2021 and average 3.9%
over the remainder of our forecast horizon.

Following a six-week-long war in Nagorno-Karabakh that broke out in
late September, Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to a ceasefire,
brokered by Russia, that took effect on Nov. 10, 2020. The
ceasefire agreement's provisions included a phased withdrawal of
Armenian military forces from three territories surrounding
Nagorno-Karabakh and their handover to Azerbaijan by Dec. 1, 2020.
About 2,000 Russian peacekeepers have been mobilized to the region
to patrol the front line and a transport corridor connecting
Armenia to Khankendi (Stepanakert), Nagorno-Karabakh's largest
city.

S&P said, "Our baseline expectation is that the ceasefire will
hold, supported by Russia's peacekeeping operations. We do not
expect a return to a full armed confrontation. However, there is
still limited visibility on a sustainable political solution to the
long-standing conflict. Increased challenges to the Armenian
government amid domestic protests against the agreement and a
polarized political landscape could pose implementation risks to
the Russian-brokered truce.

"In our opinion, Azerbaijan's institutions are still developing.
They are characterized by highly centralized decision-making and
lack transparency, which can make policy responses difficult to
predict. Political power remains concentrated in the president and
his administration, with limited checks and balances. In our view,
structural reform and economic diversification efforts in recent
years have yielded only limited results."

Azerbaijan derives about 40% of its GDP, 50% of government revenue,
and more than 90% of exports from the hydrocarbons sector. This
makes Azerbaijan's concentrated economy and credit profile
vulnerable to volatility in oil prices, despite the government's
policy to encourage non-oil private-sector growth.

The COVID-19 pandemic and a drop in oil prices has exerted
significant pressure on Azerbaijan's economy, weighing on the
hydrocarbons, retail, hospitality, and construction sectors. In
2020, the government imposed and extended quarantine regimes with
different modifications. The current special quarantine regime
remains effective until Jan. 31.

S&P said, "Following a sharp GDP contraction estimated at about 5%
in 2020, we expect economic activity will gradually recover from
2021. We project GDP will expand by about 2.1% in 2021 and average
3.9% over 2022-2024. Growth will be supported by a rebound in
hydrocarbon exports, recovery in domestic consumption aided by
fiscal stimulus, and higher public investment associated with the
government's investments in Nagorno-Karabakh. Downside risks to our
projections remain due to the uncertainty of the duration of the
pandemic and its impact on Azerbaijan's economy.

"In line with Azerbaijan's compliance with the OPEC+ production cut
agreement in April 2020, we expect that the country's daily crude
oil production (excluding condensate) will average about 610,000
barrels (bbl) in 2021, broadly in line with the 2020 level. We
expect crude oil production will gradually resume to 2019 levels of
713,000 bbl after April 2022, when the current OPEC+ production
deal is terminated. The January 2021 OPEC meeting confirmed the
alliance's cautious stance in relation to an increase in production
levels in the face of uncertain pandemic developments and their
impact on oil demand. Our assumptions are subject to uncertainties
in relation to global demand dynamics and how quickly Azerbaijan
can return to its full production capacity. Long-term questions
have also emerged over the stability of production from the
Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli oilfield (Azerbaijan's biggest), which, given
its age, has seen a natural decline in output in recent years."

Flexibility and performance profile: Strong external and fiscal net
asset positions

-- Azerbaijan's strong fiscal and external net asset positions
will remain core rating strengths.

-- In view of higher hydrocarbon exports, S&P projects
Azerbaijan's external surpluses will rise from 2022.

-- However, due to increased capital expenditure, the general
government fiscal balance will run only marginal surpluses from
2023.

-- S&P assumes Azerbaijan will retain the manat's de facto peg to
the U.S dollar.

S&P said, "We assume an average Brent oil price of $50/bbl in 2021
and 2022 and $55 in 2023 and beyond. Our assumptions compare with
an average oil price of about $41/bbl in 2020.

"In line with our oil price assumptions and Azerbaijan's compliance
with the OPEC+ production cut agreement, we expect the current
account balance will run a marginal surplus in 2021, before
rebounding to an average surplus of about 4% of GDP over the
remainder of our forecast horizon through 2024. The launch of the
SDII gas project and its expansion over the next three-to-four
years should also support Azerbaijan's external performance.
Partially offsetting this, our projections also reflect a rebound
in imports on account of higher domestic consumption and the
government's planned reconstruction activities in Nagorno Karabakh.
Due to a substantial decline in hydrocarbon exports, we estimate
Azerbaijan's current account deficit at about 3.7% of GDP in 2020
compared with the strong surplus of 9.1% in the previous year."

Despite oil-driven external volatility, Azerbaijan's strong
external balance sheet will remain a core rating strength,
reinforced by the large amount of foreign assets accumulated in the
sovereign wealth fund SOFAZ. S&P said, "We estimate external liquid
assets will surpass external debt by 90% of current account
payments in 2021, and will remain broadly stable through 2024.
Azerbaijan will remain vulnerable to potential terms-of-trade
volatility. Nevertheless, in our view, its large net external asset
position will serve as a buffer to mitigate the potential adverse
effects of economic cycles on domestic economic development."

Broadly mirroring developments on the external side, Azerbaijan's
fiscal general government deficit will narrow to about 2.0% of GDP
in 2021 from an estimated 6.4% in 2020. S&P said, "In the remainder
of our forecast horizon through 2024, we project the fiscal balance
will gradually revert to a surplus of 1% of GDP. We expect
relatively higher oil prices, a staged increase in crude oil
production, and a pickup in non-hydrocarbon revenue as the
pandemic's effects abate will support fiscal revenue. However,
partially offsetting this trend, general government expenditure
will rise to higher levels than previously assumed, largely due to
the government's reconstruction measures in the Nagorno-Karabakh
region's surrounding territories, and increased funds dedicated to
defense and national security. The state budget for 2021 envisages
Azerbaijani manat (AZN) 2.2 billion (or about 2.9% of GDP) for
financing reconstruction activities. We also understand that the
government will maintain some of the COVID-19-related budget
support measures in 2021, including the provision of state
guarantees and loans to businesses, and the extension of some tax
benefits and holidays. We estimate these measures reflect about
0.8% of 2021 GDP."

S&P said, "Azerbaijan's fiscal asset position remains strong,
supporting the sovereign ratings. Nevertheless, in line with our
fiscal flow projections, we expect that the government's net asset
position will gradually reduce to about 40% of GDP through 2024
from 50% in 2019. Lower hydrocarbon prices for a prolonged period
and further increase in fiscal expenditure could lead erosion of
the government's fiscal buffers. We count only SOFAZ's external
liquid assets in our calculations; we exclude the 21% of 2021 GDP
equivalent exposures that might be hard to liquidate if needed,
such as the fund's domestic investments and certain equity
exposures abroad. Compared with many peers, for example in the Gulf
Cooperation Council, Azerbaijan is considerably more transparent in
the publication of detailed information on categories of
investments held by SOFAZ.

"We include the sovereign guarantee on AqrarKredit's outstanding
loans of AZN9.5 billion from the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA)
in general government debt. The government contributed
substantially to the debt restructuring of the majority state-owned
International Bank of Azerbaijan (IBA) in 2017 by explicitly
assuming the bank's liabilities of $2.3 billion. The government
subsequently transferred the bank's bad loans at book value of
about AZN11 billion to AqrarKredit, a state-owned non-banking
credit organization funded by the central bank on the sovereign
guarantee. IBA's open currency position is still large at about
$0.7 billion, although it has substantially reduced from $1.9
billion in 2017. Nevertheless, we believe that most risks to the
sovereign from the weak banking system have already materialized,
so we see additional contingent liabilities as relatively limited.

"We assume Azerbaijan will retain the manat's de facto peg to the
U.S dollar at AZN1.7 to $1, supported by the authorities' regular
interventions in the foreign currency market. Because devaluation
pressure heightened last year, the CBA's scheduled and
extraordinary foreign exchange auctions with the participation of
SOFAZ ensured sufficient supply of foreign exchange, and lower
import bills during the April-May period reduced the demand for the
hard currency. In our view, should hydrocarbon prices remain low
for a prolonged period, the authorities could allow the exchange
rate to adjust to avoid a similar substantial loss of foreign
currency buffers as in 2015."

In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the
Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to
vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the
appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology
applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that
the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary
analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient
for Committee members to make an informed decision.

After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and
critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria.
Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and
discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.

The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to
articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the
draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The
views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in
the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating
factors is described in the methodology used in this rating
action.

  Ratings List
                                      To             From
  Outlook Action; Ratings Affirmed  
  
  Azerbaijan
   Sovereign Credit Rating         BB+/Stable/B   BB+/Negative/B
    Transfer & Convertibility Assessment    BB+   BB+


PASHA BANK: S&P Affirms 'B+/B' ICRs on Expected Capital Increases
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B+/B' long- and short-term issuer
credit ratings on Azerbaijan-based PASHA Bank. The outlook is
stable.

In contrast with S&P's previous forecast that PASHA Bank's
capitalization would weaken, we now expect it could strengthen over
2021-2022, supported by:

-- Sizable capital injections over two years, according to its
2021-2023 strategy;

-- Reduction in its annual dividend payout to about 60% from a
historically higher average rate of 69% over the past four years;
and

-- More robust earnings in 2020 than we previously expected.

S&P said, "Our risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio for the bank
improved to 6.2% at mid-2020 from 5.7% at year-end 2019, supported
by an AZN21.5 million capital injection and moderate asset growth.
We forecast the RAC at 6.1%-6.6% in 2021-2022, based on the
assumption that the bank's well-capitalized Turkish and Georgian
subsidiaries will remain consolidated in its financial accounts,
and depending on asset growth rates, cost of risk, and net income.
Therefore, we have revised our capital and earnings assessment to
moderate from weak.

"Our assessment of the bank's risk position as adequate balances
its stronger-than-system-average track record of asset quality and
credit losses against their expected deterioration in 2021 due to
the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and still depressed oil prices,
both of which had a pronounced negative effect on GDP growth in
Azerbaijan."

As of Sept. 30, 2020, Stage 3 loans accounted for 7.4% of PASHA
Bank's gross loans booked in Azerbaijan (excluding Turkish and
Georgia subsidiaries). Stage 2 loans accounted for 51.2% at Sept.
30, 2020. S&P said, "We expect Stage 3 loans will increase to
10%-11% in 2021, but will still compare favorably with our forecast
for the system of 12%-15%. In our view, the bank's coverage of
Stage 3 and Stage 2 loans by combined provisions and cash
collateral is moderate, at 77.3% and 47.4% respectively as of Sept.
30, 2020." In 2020 the bank provided credit holidays or
restructured about AZN240 million gross loans outstanding (about
10% of total loans). In line with Central Bank of the Republic of
Azerbaijan's recommendation, credit holidays were extended until
year-end 2021.

S&P thinks the bank's creditworthiness continues to benefit from
its solid position in Azerbaijan's corporate lending market as the
second largest domestic bank, despite the difficult and uncertain
operating environment due to COVID-19 and the drop in oil prices.
Nevertheless, the bank remains highly exposed to the fortunes of
its majority shareholder PASHA Holding Ltd., and reporting about
40% of deposits and about 25% of loans with related parties at
mid-2020.

The bank's funding profile remains concentrated on corporate and
high net worth individuals depositors because of PASHA Bank's focus
on corporate banking. Nevertheless, customer accounts have been
stable over 2020 and the bank keeps a large liquidity buffer, with
broad liquid assets comprising about 47% of total assets at
mid-2020, which largely mitigates the risk of potential depositor
volatility.

S&P said, "We consider Pasha Bank a systemically important bank,
taking into account its large market share and its important role
in servicing large and midsize corporations in Azerbaijan.
Nevertheless, we think that the government's tendency to support
systemically important banks in Azerbaijan is uncertain, and we
therefore give no uplift to the bank's stand-alone credit profile.

"The stable outlook on PASHA Bank is based on our expectation that
its solid corporate business franchise in Azerbaijan, large
liquidity buffer, and stable customer deposits will support its
credit profile over the next 12 months.

"We could lower the rating in the next 12 months if the bank's
asset quality declines so that it has significantly more problem
assets than peers' in Azerbaijan, if credit losses materially
exceed our expectations, or if it suffers a liquidity shortage due
to the withdrawal of large deposits.

"A positive rating action could follow in the next 12 months if the
bank demonstrates a track record of further strengthening its
capitalization, follows a more conservative capitalization policy,
and sets realistic budgets and closely delivers on them, such that
our forecast RAC ratio approaches 7%. At the same time, we will
monitor if the bank adequately recognizes and provisions for its
problem loans, maintains asset quality at least on par with the
system average, and maintains adequate liquidity."

Over the longer-term beyond 12 months, a positive rating action is
likely if the bank's projected RAC ratio is sustainably and
consistently a gbove 7%.




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B U L G A R I A
===============

[*] BULGARIA: Hospitality Sector Wants Loan Moratorium Extended
---------------------------------------------------------------
Aleksia Petrova at SeeNews reports that the Bulgarian Hotel and
Restaurant Association estimates that the moratorium on loan
repayments introduced over the Covid-19 crisis should be extended
for that sector of the economy by at least two years after the end
of the pandemic, the deputy chairman of the association Atanas
Dimitrov said.

Last month, the Bulgarian National Bank approved the request of the
local bank association to extend the current loan repayment
moratorium, SeeNews recounts.  The deadline for applying was
extended to March 23, while lenders will have until March 31 to
approve the applications, SeeNews notes.

According to SeeNews, Mr. Dimitrov said in an audio file published
on the website of public radio BNR the government's decision to cut
value-added tax (VAT) rate for restaurants is beneficial in itself
but it is not useful given that restaurants are staying closed to
limit the spread of the coronavirus.

Bars, restaurants, gyms, shopping malls and casinos in Bulgaria
will remain closed until the end of January under an order of
health authorities, SeeNews relates.  The suspension of their
activities has been in force since Dec. 22, SeeNews states.

According to SeeNews, Mr. Dimitrov said about one-third of
restaurant businesses in Bulgaria have gone bankrupt due to the
coronavirus-related restrictions on their operations imposed by the
government since the outbreak of the disease last spring.




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F R A N C E
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CAB SELARL: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR on Expected Refinancing
--------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B-' issuer credit rating on CAB
SELARL and assigned its 'B-' issue rating and '3' recovery rating
to the proposed new term loan B.

The stable outlook reflects S&P's view that Biogroup will maintain
sound operations and EBITDA margin across its laboratories' network
while transitioning to a potential post-pandemic environment where
it will lose material EBITDA contribution from COVID-19 testing.

Biogroup's parent CAB announced its plan to issue a new term loan B
and other senior debt to refinance a portion of its existing EUR2
billion term loan B, EUR305 million second-lien debt, and EUR218
million payment-in-kind debt; the revolving credit facility (RCF)
will increase to EUR270 million from EUR130 million.

The group's EBITDA benefits from well-executed acquisitions with
increasing scale and network density driving operating efficiency,
while the contribution from highly profitable COVID-19 testing more
than off-set the negative impact from the lockdown that have
affected routine testing.

S&P said, "The rating takes into account the enhanced competitive
position which we reflect as an assessment of business risk profile
of fair. Biogroup increased its scale and gained market shares in
France by building a dense network of collection points and
technical platforms which fosters operating efficiency. The group
targeted laboratories focused on routine biology testing with
almost no contracts with hospitals and clinics, which require a
larger cost base due to their necessity of having technical
platforms operating all the time.

"The rating on Biogroup remain constrained by the company's focus
in routine testing and exposure to a single payer.  Although we
recognize the progress in terms of scale and the higher
profitability, we view Biogroup's focus on routine testing as a
weakness relatively to the more diversified groups such as Cerba
(Constantin Investissement), Unilabs, or Synlab. Although now
present in Belgium, Biogroup still generates more than 80% of its
revenue in France and is reimbursed by the French social health
insurance. While we see payer risk as very low, the focus increases
sensitivity to price cuts and limits organic growth.

"We believe Biogroup will continue to focus on external growth
continuing to use debt as a main source of funding.

"We assume that the COVID-19 testing windfall will fund continued
acquisitions, and view the deleveraging path as constrained by
potential future debt-funded external growth. The company has
unproven track record of performing at S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
financial leverage below 7x. Given the level of consolidation of
the French market, where the top 5 players represent more than 60%
of the market, we believe any transformative acquisitions will
likely be outside of France. Furthermore, we note a key man risk
related to Stephane Eimer, the founder of the group who plays a
pivotal role in the external growth strategy.

"We understand that the company is on track to integrate the
assets, including the largest transactions.  This includes CMA
Medina in Belgium (closed end October 2020) and Laborizon and
Dyomedea in France (which closed July 2020). The majority of the
synergies will come from contractual reduction of the salaries of
biologists selling their stakes in their company. Once they agreed
to sell their stake, they agreed upon a reduction in salaries. In
our view, this mechanism is common in the laboratories industry."
Other synergies in the industry overall remain limited and mainly
comprise common procurement as new laboratories benefit from frame
contracts of the group and the centralization of the technical
platforms. This is where Biogroup mainly differentiates. The
centralization of these platforms is easier and more efficient
given the meshing of its network."

Biogroup has also been very active and efficient in providing
COVID-19 testing (mainly PCR, but also serological tests).  In
November 2020 alone, the group performed about 1.2 million PCR
tests. This represents 20% of the tests performed in France in
October 2020 and 9x the volume of tests the group performed in June
2020). These tests are highly profitable and have more than offset
the sharp decline in routine tests that occurred during the 1st
lockdown (March 17-May 11 in France). The company's ability to
perform large volumes at a very high profitability demonstrates the
strength of its established network. S&P believes that EBITDA in
2020 will substantially increase compared to the previous-year
level as Biogroup benefited and will continue to benefit from
highly profitable PCR testing, which accounted for a large portion
of the EBITDA. However, the large contribution of COVID-19 testing
to the performance could create volatility in the earnings and
credit metrics post-pandemic. According to management, volumes on
the core business (excluding PCR and serological tests) will stand
2% lower than that of the previous year on a like-for-like basis.
This reflects the effect of the first lockdown in France (March
17-May 11, 2020) which was very strict. Volumes have since
recovered and the routine tests did not suffer from cannibalization
from the strong demand for the PCR testing.

S&P said, "We expect Biogroup's leverage to surge once it loses the
substantial EBITDA contribution from nonrecurring COVID-19 testing.
We forecast that S&P Global Ratings-adjusted financial leverage
would decline to about 5x in 2020, supported by the COVID-19
testing windfall. We forecast leverage will increase in 2021 but
would remain near 5x-6x as the group should continue to benefit
from substantial contribution from nonrecurring COVID-19 testing.
However, we forecast leverage will increase above 7x by 2022 once
testing tapers off. We assume revenue reduction from COVID-19
testing, which will significantly impact EBITDA given the high
profitability of the tests.

"The stable outlook reflects our view that Biogroup, while
transitioning toward a post-pandemic environment, will continuously
pursue its external growth strategy and will maintain sound
operations and high EBITDA margins. This should translate into
positive free operating cash flow (FOCF) of at least EUR100 million
per year, a fixed-charge coverage ratio above 2x, and S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted leverage likely remaining above 7x by 2022 once
the group loses contribution from one-time COVID-19 EBITDA."

S&P would take a negative rating action if Biogroup's credit
metrics weaken beyond S&P's base-case scenario, including any of
the following factors:

-- EBITDA margin weaken materially due to unexpected integration
setbacks;

-- Financial policy becomes more aggressive with continued
debt-funded acquisitions and potential distribution to
shareholders, leading to increased financial leverage and raising
questions on the sustainability of the capital structure; or

-- Liquidity risks such as heightened risk of a specific default
event, such as a covenant breach, distressed exchange or
restructuring, or a debt purchase below par.

S&P would take a positive rating action once it has more certainty
around Biogroup's profitability without the nonrecurring COVID-19
EBITDA and if the following happen:

-- The group proves its ability to control its cost structure and
manage the tariff costs such that its EBITDA margin stays well
above industry peers; and

-- It demonstrates capability and willingness to reduce the
financial leverage to 7x in the near term; and gets on a clear path
of deleveraging toward 5x. This would require a change in the
company's financial policy.


FAURECIA SE: S&P Rates New EUR190MM Secured Debt Add-On 'BB'
------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BB' issue rating and '3' recovery
rating to Faurecia SE's (BB/Stable/--) proposed EUR190 million
add-on to its EUR700 million senior unsecured notes due 2027. The
'3' recovery rating indicates S&P's expectation of meaningful
recovery (50%-70%; rounded estimate: 50%) in the event of a payment
default.

Auto parts manufacturer Faurecia will use the proceeds to partly
reduce the use of short-term commercial paper. The rest of the
proceeds will be kept as cash on the balance sheet. S&P expects
that the proposed transaction will be almost neutral for the
company's credit metrics because it does not change the amount of
adjusted net debt.

S&P said, "Our 'BB' long-term issuer credit rating on Faurecia
reflects our belief that the company will maintain leading market
positions in its three largest divisions (seating systems,
interiors, and clean mobility) and strict cost discipline. With a
gradual recovery of global auto production volumes expected in 2021
and 2022, we anticipate that Faurecia's operating performance will
gradually improve from the low level we expect in 2020. For
instance, we forecast that in 2021 Faurecia's funds from operations
to debt will increase toward 20% from an estimated 9%-11% in 2020,
and that its free operating cash flow to debt will rise toward 10%
from negative levels."

Issue Ratings--Recovery Analysis

Key analytical factors

-- S&P's issue and recovery ratings on Faurecia's senior unsecured
notes and EUR1.2 billion revolving credit facility are 'BB' and '3'
respectively. Indicative recovery prospects are mainly constrained
by factoring liabilities of about EUR1.2 billion and debt at
operating companies, which it considers priority liabilities in its
payment waterfall. The recovery rating of '3' on this debt reflects
our expectation of meaningful recovery prospects (50%-70%; rounded
estimate: 50%) in the event of a default.

-- In S&P's hypothetical default scenario for Faurecia, it assumes
a cyclical downturn in the industry, combined with intensified
competition, would hamper production volumes and prices, causing
the company's operating performance, EBITDA, and cash flow to
decline sharply.

-- S&P values Faurecia as a going concern, given its global
industrial footprint and long-standing relationships with auto
original equipment manufacturers.

Simulated default assumptions

-- Simulated year of default: 2026
-- EBITDA at emergence: EUR930 million
-- EBITDA multiple: 5x
-- RCF assumed 85% drawn at default

Simplified waterfall

-- Net enterprise value (after 5% administrative costs): EUR4.4
billion
-- Priority claims: EUR1.6 billion*
-- Total value available to unsecured claims: EUR2.9 billion
-- Senior unsecured debt claims: EUR5.4 billion*
    --Recovery expectations: 50%-70% (rounded estimate: 50%)

*All debt amounts include six months of prepetition interest.




=============
G E R M A N Y
=============

LUFTHANSA: Losing EUR1 Million Every Two Hours, CEO Says
--------------------------------------------------------
Ilona Wissenbach and Laurence Frost at Reuters report that
Lufthansa is losing EUR1 million (US$1.2 million) every two hours,
"a significant improvement" over the low point of the COVID-19
crisis, the German airline group's chief executive said on Jan.
21.

According to Reuters, Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr said in a webcast
interview hosted by Eurocontrol the airline, which was racking up
losses at twice that rate at one point last year, has cut costs and
pared back flights to those generating positive cash thanks to
buoyant cargo rates.

The group last year received a EUR9 billion bailout in which the
German government took a 20% stake, Reuters recounts.

Lufthansa has so far used about EUR3 billion of its cash injection,
Mr. Spohr said, and may end up not needing the full amount, Reuters
notes.




===========
G R E E C E
===========

GREECE: Fitch Affirms 'BB' LT Foreign Currency IDR, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Greece's Long-Term Foreign-Currency
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BB' with a Stable Outlook.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Greece's ratings reflect high income per capita levels, which far
exceed both the 'BB' and 'BBB' medians, and governance scores above
most sub-investment grade peers. These strengths are set against
weak medium-term growth potential, an extremely high level of
non-performing loans (NPL) in the banking sector and very high
stocks of general government debt and net external debt. The Stable
Outlook reflects a degree of confidence in the sustainability of
public finances, even after the severe shock to the economy and
public finances from the Covid-19 pandemic, and the risks to the
economic outlook.

Real GDP declined by 9.2% on an annual basis over the first three
quarters of 2020, with a particularly sharp fall in exports of
around 25%, primarily due to greatly reduced tourist arrivals.
Fitch estimates that GDP declined by 10.2% over the full year.
Fitch expects a robust economic recovery over the next two years,
based on the assumption of a significant easing of the global
health crisis following the roll-out of vaccination programmes, and
the front-loading and absorption of the funds available in the EU's
Recovery Fund. However, there are downside risks to the economic
outlook and Fitch’s forecasts. A delayed roll-out of vaccination
programmes, not just in Greece but also in its main trading
partners, would slow down the rebound of the tourism sector; and a
slow absorption of EU funds would slow domestic demand growth.

Fitch forecasts that real GDP will start to recover strongly from
2Q this year, although the weak carry-over effect from 2020 and the
ongoing restrictions during 1Q21 mean that Fitch’s forecast for
GDP growth this year is only 3.0%. Fitch expects that the funds
available as grants from the EU's Next Generation fund (NGEU),
primarily the Recovery and Resilience Facility, will be
front-loaded in 2021 and 2022, in line with European Commission
guidelines. For Greece, the grants component amounts to EUR16.2
billion (around 9% of 2019 GDP). Fitch assumes that 10% of these
grants will be disbursed and utilised this year, and 60% in 2022.

A much stronger carry-over next year and the boost from the
Recovery Fund implies that Fitch expects GDP growth to accelerate
to 7.6% in 2022, before tapering back towards Fitch’s assessment
of medium-term growth potential of 1% as the output gap closes and
the benefits of EU funds dissipate over time. There are upside and
downside risks to these forecasts, with the potential for stronger
growth reflecting a combination of effective structural reforms and
sustained higher EU funding, while downside risks include a
longer-lasting impact from the pandemic on business closures and
job losses than Fitch currently expects.

The much-reduced number of tourist arrivals has had a significant
impact on the current account. Fitch estimates that the current
account deficit widened from 1.5% in 2019 to 7.2% last year ('BB'
median estimate: 3.9% of GDP). Fitch expects a gradual narrowing of
the current account deficit over the next two years, to 5.7% of GDP
in 2022. Net external indebtedness increased further in 2020 to
154.3% of GDP, remaining much higher than the 'BB' median (end-year
estimate: 23.2% of GDP). Risks stemming from Greece's high external
indebtedness are mitigated by the large share of euro-denominated
liabilities owed to official creditors and the relatively low level
of vulnerability to external market sentiment.

The overall size of policy support measures to the economy affected
by the pandemic crisis, including tax deferrals and guarantees that
do not immediately affect public finance metrics, is estimated to
be EUR24 billion for 2020 and EUR7.5 billion for 2021 (overall 17%
of 2019 GDP). The 2021 budget envisages a reversal of a number of
support measures but also tax cuts ofaround 0.8% of GDP. The
combination of policy support, lower economic activity and
automatic stabilisers implies that the general government balance
will swing from a surplus of 1.5% of GDP in 2019 to an estimated
9.3% deficit for 2020. The economic recovery over the next two
years will result in the deficit falling back to 7.2% this year and
then to 2.6% in 2022.

Our projections and assumptions imply that general government debt
as a share of GDP rose from 180.5% at end-2019 to 210.5% of GDP at
end-2020, which would be around 3.5x the 'BB' median estimate
(close to 60.0%), and among the highest of Fitch-rated sovereigns.
Fitch projects that the debt ratio will then edge down to 206.9% by
the end of this year, and fall further to 191.5% by end-2022.

Greece's public debt stock will remain very high over a prolonged
period, but there are mitigating factors that support public debt
sustainability. Greece's liquid asset buffer is substantial (around
20% of forecast GDP), and can accommodate unexpected increases in
spending. The concessional nature of the vast majority of Greece's
public debt means that debt-servicing costs are low. The
amortisation schedule is moderate, and the average maturity of
Greek debt (around 20 years) is amongst the longest across all
Fitch-rated sovereigns, reducing the risk from interest rate
rises.

Moreover, and importantly, the European Central Bank (ECB) has
included Greek government bonds in its pandemic emergency purchase
programme (PEPP), in contrast to most previous asset purchase
schemes. The PEPP has an overall envelope of EUR1,850 billion. On
the basis of Greece's capital key at the ECB, this would allow for
up to EUR37 billion (around 23% of GDP) of Greek government bonds
to be bought on the secondary market by the Eurosystem. This
provides an important additional source of financing flexibility
and should continue to contribute to keeping debt servicing costs
manageable. During 2020, the Greek state issued or re-issued on the
market bonds for EUR12 billion at historically low rates (1.2% on a
10-year bond in October).

The banking sector remains a weakness for the sovereign credit
profile. The NPL ratio remains well above the EU average, despite
the recent progress on asset quality metrics, which saw a decline
in the NPL ratio to 35.8% from 42.1% over the four quarters to
3Q20, and a nominal decline of EUR12.5 billion. Fitch expects
increased inflows of impaired loans after the expiry of the
moratoria on loan payments introduced by Greek banks. However, the
overall NPL ratio could decline if banks execute planned
securitisations of impaired loans in 2021, making use of the asset
protection scheme. A proposal from the Greek central bank to
establish an asset management company to address banks' stock of
impaired loans, and the implementation of an insolvency law reform
from January may be positive for banks' asset-quality prospects in
the medium term.

Funding conditions and liquidity levels for Greek banks have
improved thanks to deposit inflows from the private sector and
other support initiatives at European level such as new targeted
longer-term refinancing operations and waivers on limitations of
the use of Greek government bonds as collateral in credit
operations.

ESG - Governance: Greece has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of 5 for
both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law,
Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption, as
is the case for all sovereigns. Theses scores reflect the high
weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in
Fitch's proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Greece has a
medium/high WBGI ranking at 64.8, well above both the 'BB' and
'BBB' medians, reflecting well established rights for participation
in the political process, and relatively strong institutional
capacity, regulatory quality and rule of law.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to
positive rating action/upgrade are:

-- Public Finances: Government debt/GDP returning to a firm
    downward path after the Covid-19 shock, for example due to
    fiscal consolidation, a return to GDP growth and sustained low
    costs of borrowing.

-- Macro: An improvement in medium-term growth potential and
    performance following the Covid-19 shock, particularly if
    supported by the implementation of the EU Recovery Plan and
    structural reforms.

-- Structural: Renewed progress on asset quality improvement by
    the systemic banks, consistent with successful completion of
    securitisation transactions and lower impairment charges, and
    leading to improved credit provision to the private sector.

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to
negative rating action/downgrade:

-- Public Finances: Failure to reduce government debt/GDP, for
    example due to a more pronounced and longer period of fiscal
    easing and economic contraction.

-- Structural features: Adverse developments in the banking
    sector increasing risks to the public finances and the real
    economy, via the crystallisation of contingent liabilities on
    the sovereign balance sheet and/or an inability to undertake
    new lending to support economic growth.

-- Macro: Evidence of a long-lasting negative impact of the
    coronavirus shock on the Greek economy and its medium-term
    potential growth.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Greece a score equivalent to a
rating of 'BB' on the Long-Term Foreign-Currency (LT FC) IDR scale.
This is one notch lower than the SRM score at the time of the
previous committee, which was equivalent to a rating of 'BB+'.

Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM
to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its QO, relative to
SRM data and output, as follows:

-- Structural Features: -1 notch, to reflect weaknesses in the
    banking sector, including a very high level of NPLs, which
    represent a contingent liability for the sovereign, and a
    constraint on credit provision to the private sector. The
    government's stable parliamentary majority and the
    constructive relationship with EU creditors reduce risks of
    financial market instability.

-- Public Finances: Fitch has introduced a new +1 notch
    adjustment, to reflect the manageable amortisation schedule,
    long average maturity of debt, and the high degree of
    financing flexibility compared to rating peers. Financing
    flexibility is enhanced by ECB monetary policy and has
    improved following the inclusion of Greek government bonds in
    the PEPP, which has resulted also in historically low market
    interest rates. Greece's access to the NGEU fund also enhances
    its financing flexibility relative to BB category rated peers.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating
model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred
averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score
equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking
qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM
output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within
Fitch’s criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully
reflected in the SRM.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Sovereigns, Public Finance
and Infrastructure issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario
(defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in
a positive direction) of three notches over a three-year rating
horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative
direction) of three notches over three years. The complete span of
best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating
categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario
credit ratings are based on historical performance.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

The global economy performs broadly in line with Fitch's latest
Global Economic Outlook published on 7 December 2020. Eurozone real
GDP is estimated to have fallen by 7.6% in 2020, and is forecast to
recover by 4.7% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Greece has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Political Stability and
Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight
in Fitch's SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and
a key rating driver with a high weight.

Greece an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Rule of Law, Institutional &
Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as World Bank
Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's SRM and
are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key rating
driver with a high weight.

Greece has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms as the Voice and Accountability pillar of the
World Bank Governance Indicators is relevant to the rating and a
rating driver.

Greece has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and
is a rating driver for Greece, as for all sovereigns.

Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG
credit relevance, if present, is a score of 3. This means ESG
issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity(ies), either due to their nature or to the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).




=============
I R E L A N D
=============

CIFC EUROPEAN III: Fitch Assigns Final B Rating on Cl. F Debt
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned CIFC European Funding CLO III Designated
Activity Company ratings as follows.

DEBT                 RATING               PRIOR
----                 ------               -----
CIFC European Funding CLO III DAC

A              LT  AAAsf  New Rating    AAA(EXP)sf
B-1            LT  AAsf   New Rating    AA(EXP)sf
B-2            LT  AAsf   New Rating    AA(EXP)sf
C              LT  Asf    New Rating    A(EXP)sf
D              LT  BBB-sf New Rating    BBB-(EXP)sf
E              LT  BBsf   New Rating    BB(EXP)sf
F              LT  Bsf    New Rating    B(EXP)sf
Subordinated   LT  NRsf   New Rating    NR(EXP)sf
Y              LT  NRsf   New Rating

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

This is a securitisation of mainly senior secured obligations (at
least 90%) with a component of senior unsecured, mezzanine,
second-lien loans and high-yield bonds. Note proceeds have been
used to fund a portfolio with a target par of EUR350 million. The
portfolio is actively managed by CIFC Asset Management Europe
Limited. The collateralised loan obligation (CLO) has a four-year
reinvestment period and an 8.5-year weighted average life (WAL).

KEY RATING DRIVERS

-- Average Portfolio Credit Quality: Fitch assesses the average
    credit quality of obligors to be in the 'B' category. The
    Fitch weighted average rating factor (WARF) of the identified
    portfolio is 32.64.

-- High Recovery Expectations: At least 90% of the portfolio
    comprises senior secured obligations. Fitch views the recovery
    prospects for these assets as more favourable than for second
    lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The Fitch weighted
    average recovery rate (WARR) of the identified portfolio is
    63.23%.

-- Diversified Portfolio (Positive): The transaction has four
    matrices corresponding to two 10 largest obligors at 15% and
    21% of the portfolio balance and two maximum fixed-rate asset
    limits at 0% and 10%. The transaction also includes various
    concentration limits, including the maximum exposure to the
    three largest (Fitch-defined) industries in the portfolio at
    40%. These covenants ensure that the asset portfolio will not
    be exposed to excessive concentration.

-- Portfolio Management (Neutral): The transaction has a four
    year reinvestment period and includes reinvestment criteria
    similar to those of other European transactions. Fitch's
    analysis is based on a stressed-case portfolio with the aim of
    testing the robustness of the transaction structure against
    its covenants and portfolio guidelines.

-- Cash Flow Analysis: Fitch used a customised proprietary cash
    flow model to replicate the principal and interest waterfalls
    and the various structural features of the transaction, and to
    assess their effectiveness, including the structural
    protection provided by excess spread diverted through the par
    value and interest coverage tests. The WAL is set at 8.5
    years, in line with the maximum covenant at closing.

-- The transaction was also modelled using the current portfolio
    and the current portfolio with a coronavirus sensitivity
    analysis applied. Fitch analysis for the coronavirus
    sensitivity analysis was based on a stable interest-rate
    scenario but include the front-, mid- and back-loaded default
    timing scenarios as outlined in the agency's criteria.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

-- A 25% reduction of the mean default rate (RDR) across all
    ratings and a 25% increase in the recovery rate (RRR) across
    all ratings would result in an upgrade of no more than four
    notches across the structure, apart from the class A notes,
    which are already at the highest 'AAAsf' rating.

-- At closing, Fitch uses a standardised stress portfolio
    (Fitch's Stressed Portfolio) that is customised to the
    specific portfolio limits for the transaction as specified in
    the transaction documents. Even if the actual portfolio shows
    lower defaults and smaller losses at all rating levels than
    Fitch's Stressed Portfolio assumed at closing, an upgrade of
    the notes during the reinvestment period is unlikely, as the
    portfolio credit quality may still deteriorate, not only by
    natural credit migration, but also through reinvestments.

-- After the end of the reinvestment period, upgrades may occur
    if there is better-than-expected portfolio credit quality and
    deal performance, leading to higher credit enhancement and
    excess spread available to cover for losses on the remaining
    portfolio.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

-- A 25% increase of the mean RDR across all ratings and a 25%
    decrease of the RRR across all ratings would result in
    downgrades of between two to four notches across the
    structure.

Coronavirus Baseline Scenario Impact

-- Fitch carried out a sensitivity analysis on the target
    portfolio to envisage the coronavirus baseline scenario. The
    agency notched down the ratings for all assets with corporate
    issuers on Negative Outlook regardless of sector. This
    scenario shows resilience of the assigned ratings, with a
    substantial cushion across the class A to D notes while the
    cushion is more limited for the class E and F notes.

-- Fitch also considered the possibility that the stress
    portfolio, determined by the transaction's covenants, would
    further deteriorate due to the impact of coronavirus
    mitigation measures. Fitch believes this circumstance is
    adequately addressed by the coronavirus baseline sensitivity
    run, in which all classes pass the current ratings.

Coronavirus Downside Scenario impact

-- Fitch has added a sensitivity analysis that contemplates a
    more severe and prolonged economic stress caused by a re
    emergence of infections in the major economies, before halting
    recovery begins in 2Q21. The downside sensitivity incorporates
    the following stresses: applying a single-notch downgrade to
    all Fitch-derived ratings in the 'B' rating category and
    applying a 0.85 recovery rate multiplier to all other assets
    in the portfolio.

-- Under this downside scenario, the ratings would be one to five
    notches below the current ratings. For more information on
    Fitch's Stressed Portfolio and initial model-implied rating
    sensitivities, see the new issue report.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance
transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as
the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
are based on historical performance.

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10

Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.

DATA ADEQUACY

CIFC European Funding CLO III DAC

The majority of the underlying assets or risk presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information.

Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.


HARVEST CLO XV: Fitch Affirms B- Rating on Class F-R Notes
----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Harvest CLO XV DAC's class
D-R, E-R and F-R notes to Stable from Negative.

       DEBT                  RATING              PRIOR
       ----                  ------              -----
Harvest CLO XV DAC

A-1A-R XS1817777375    LT  AAAsf  Affirmed       AAAsf
A-1B-R XS1820806328    LT  AAAsf  Affirmed       AAAsf
A-2-R XS1820808456     LT  AAAsf  Affirmed       AAAsf
B-1-R XS1817777961     LT  AAsf   Affirmed       AAsf
B-2-R XS1817778696     LT  AAsf   Affirmed       AAsf
C-R XS1817779231       LT  Asf    Affirmed       Asf
D-R XS1817779827       LT  BBBsf  Affirmed       BBBsf
E-R XS1817780320       LT  BBsf   Affirmed       BBsf
F-R XS1817780676       LT  B-sf   Affirmed       B-sf

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

Harvest CLO XV DAC is a cash flow CLO mostly comprising senior
secured obligations. The transaction is still within its
reinvestment period and is actively managed by Investcorp Credit
Management EU Limited.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Stable Asset Performance

The transaction was below par by 89bp as of the investor report on
30 November 2020. All portfolio profile tests, collateral quality
tests and coverage tests were passing except for another rating
agency's weighted average rating factor (WARF) test, Fitch's and
another rating agency's 'CCC' tests, and the limit to obligors
domiciled in Portugal, Italy, Greece, or Spain. Exposure to assets
with a Fitch-derived rating (FDR) of 'CCC+' and below was 9.06%
(excluding non-rated assets). The transaction had one defaulted
asset as of the same report.

Outlook Change Based on Coronavirus Stress

The Outlooks on the class D-R, E-R and F-R notes have been revised
to Stable from Negative as a result of a sensitivity analysis Fitch
ran in light of the coronavirus pandemic. For the sensitivity
analysis Fitch notched down the ratings for all assets with
corporate issuers with a Negative Outlook (31.9% of the portfolio)
regardless of sector and ran the cash flow analysis based on a
stable interest rate scenario. The D-R, E-R and F-R notes have
positive cushions under this cash flow model run.

The Stable Outlook reflects the respective tranches' rating
resilience under the coronavirus baseline sensitivity analysis with
a cushion. For more details on Fitch’s pandemic-related stresses
see "CLO Sensitivity Remains Focused on Portfolio Rating Migration
over Time."

'B'/'B-' Portfolio

Fitch assesses the average credit quality of the obligors in the
'B'/'B-' category for the transaction. The Fitch WARF calculated by
Fitch of 35.6 (assuming unrated assets are 'CCC') and calculated by
the trustee of 34.51 of the current portfolio were above the
maximum covenant of 34.5. The Fitch WARF would increase by 3.18
after applying the coronavirus stress.

High Recovery Expectations

Senior secured obligations comprise 98.55% of the portfolio. Fitch
views the recovery prospects for these assets as more favourable
than for second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets.

Diversified Portfolio

The portfolio is well-diversified across obligors, countries and
industries. The top 10 obligor concentration is 14.54%, and no
obligor represents more than 1.91% of the portfolio balance.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

-- At closing, Fitch used a standardised stress portfolio
    (Fitch's stressed portfolio) that was customised to the
    portfolio limits as specified in the transaction documents.
    Even if the actual portfolio shows lower defaults and smaller
    losses (at all rating levels) than Fitch's stressed portfolio
    assumed at closing, an upgrade of the notes during the
    reinvestment period is unlikely as the portfolio credit
    quality may still deteriorate, not only through natural credit
    migration, but also through reinvestments.

-- Upgrades may occur after the end of the reinvestment period on
    better-than-expected portfolio credit quality and deal
    performance, leading to higher credit enhancement and excess
    spread available to cover for losses in the remaining
    portfolio.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

-- Downgrades may occur if the build-up of credit enhancement
    following amortisation does not compensate for a larger loss
    expectation than initially assumed due to unexpectedly high
    levels of default and portfolio deterioration.

-- As disruptions to supply and demand due to the pandemic become
    apparent, loan ratings in those sectors will also come under
    pressure. Fitch will update the sensitivity scenarios in line
    with the view of its leveraged finance team.

Coronavirus Downside Sensitivity

Fitch has added a sensitivity analysis that contemplates a more
severe and prolonged economic stress caused by a re-emergence of
infections in the major economies. The downside sensitivity
incorporates a single-notch downgrade to all FDRs in the 'B' rating
category and a 0.85 recovery rate multiplier to all other assets in
the portfolio. For typical European CLOs this scenario results in a
category-rating change for all ratings.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance
transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as
the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
are based on historical performance.

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10

Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.

DATA ADEQUACY

Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset pool
and the transaction. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.

The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information or information on the risk-presenting entities.

Overall, and together with any assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.


PENTA CLO 5: Moody's Assigns (P)B3 Rating on Class F-R Notes
------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service announced that it has assigned the
following provisional ratings to refinancing notes to be issued by
Penta CLO 5 Designated Activity Company (the "Issuer"):

EUR2,500,000 Class X-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2035, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)

EUR245,450,000 Class A-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2035, Assigned (P)Aaa (sf)

EUR33,400,000 Class B-1-R Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2035, Assigned (P)Aa2 (sf)

EUR10,000,000 Class B-2-R Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due
2035, Assigned (P)Aa2 (sf)

EUR22,300,000 Class C-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2035, Assigned (P)A2 (sf)

EUR26,250,000 Class D-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2035, Assigned (P)Baa3 (sf)

EUR24,000,000 Class E-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2035, Assigned (P)Ba3 (sf)

EUR10,150,000 Class F-R Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2035, Assigned (P)B3 (sf)

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rationale for the rating is based on a consideration of the
risks associated with the CLO's portfolio and structure as
described in our methodology.

The Issuer will issue the notes in connection with the re-issuance
of the following classes of notes (the "Original Notes"): EUR
1,500,000 Class X Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes, EUR
158,000,000 Class A-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes, EUR
90,000,000 Class A-2 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes, EUR
32,900,000 Class B-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes, EUR
5,000,000 Class B-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes, EUR 23,900,000
Class C Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes, EUR
26,600,000 Class D Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate Notes,
EUR 22,500,000 Class E Senior Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes, EUR 12,900,000 Class F Senior Secured Deferrable Floating
Rate Notes, due October 2032 previously issued on December 20,
2018.

The Issuer is a managed cash flow CLO. At least 95% of the
portfolio must consist of senior secured obligations and up to 5%
of the portfolio may consist of senior unsecured obligations,
second-lien loans, mezzanine obligations and high yield bonds. The
portfolio is expected to is fully ramped up as of the closing date
and to comprise of predominantly corporate loans to obligors
domiciled in Western Europe.

Partners Group (UK) Management Ltd ("Partners Group") will manage
the CLO. It will direct the selection, acquisition and disposition
of collateral on behalf of the Issuer and may engage in trading
activity, including discretionary trading, during the transaction's
four-year reinvestment period. Thereafter, subject to certain
restrictions, purchases are permitted using principal proceeds from
unscheduled principal payments and proceeds from sales of credit
risk obligations or credit improved obligations.

Interest and principal amortisation amounts due to the Class X
Notes are paid pro rata with payments to the Class A Notes. The
Class X Notes amortise by 10% or EUR 250,000 over the first ten
payment dates.

In addition to the 8 classes of notes rated by Moody's, the Issuer
will issue EUR 42.40 million of Subordinated Notes which are not
rated.

The transaction incorporates interest and par coverage tests which,
if triggered, divert interest and principal proceeds to pay down
the notes in order of seniority.

The coronavirus outbreak, the government measures put in place to
contain it, and the weak global economic outlook continue to
disrupt economies and credit markets across sectors and regions.
Moody's analysis has considered the effect on the performance of
corporate assets from the current weak European economic activity
and a gradual recovery for the coming months. Although an economic
recovery is underway, it is tenuous and its continuation will be
closely tied to containment of the virus. As a result, the degree
of uncertainty around our forecasts is unusually high.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety.

Methodology underlying the rating action:

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in
December 2020.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:

The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.

Moody's modeled the transaction using a cash flow model based on
the Binomial Expansion Technique, as described in Section 2.3 of
the "Moody's Global Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan
Obligations" rating methodology published in December 2020.

Moody's used the following base-case modeling assumptions:

Par Amount: EUR 400,000,000.00

Diversity Score: 50

Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3100

Weighted Average Spread (WAS): 3.65%

Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 4.50%

Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 45.00%

Weighted Average Life (WAL): 8.5 years



===================
K A Z A K H S T A N
===================

FINCRAFT GROUP: S&P Upgrades LT ICR to 'B+' on Bond Buyback
-----------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term issuer credit ratings on
Fincraft Group LLP and its subsidiary BTA Bank JSC to 'B+' from
'B'. The outlooks on both entities are stable.

At the same time, S&P affirmed its 'B' short-term issuer credit
ratings on both entities. The national scale ratings were raised to
'kzBBB' from 'kzBB+.

S&P also withdrew its ratings on BTA Bank JSC at the bank's
request.

The upgrade stems from Fincraft Group's repurchase of almost all
its bonds.  On Jan. 5, 2021, Fincraft Group bought back almost 93%
of its outstanding 10-year bonds, due in 2029, using proceeds from
the sale of a large plot of land in Almaty. S&P said, "This results
in a sharp improvement of stressed leverage (measured as the value
of assets after haircuts divided by debt) to about 23x, which we
consider to be very strong, compared with 1.75x previously. We also
note, that the impending listing of Battery Metals
Technologies--one of the key mining assets of Fincraft Group's
ownerKenges Rakishev--will open the way for settling transactions
between Mr. Rakishev and the group's entities. Upon settlement we
expect stressed leverage to improve further. This development
enhances the group's credit quality and is therefore positive for
the ratings, in our opinion."

S&P said, "We believe the debt repayment will have a modest
positive impact on the group's liquidity.  This is because the
group intends to buy back the remaining bonds over 2021 and its
cash flows remain largely transactional. As a result, the liquidity
ratio for the next 12 months will improve only slightly, to about
1.4x from about 1.0x previously.

"Yet, we note that the group experienced some setbacks last year,
and its long-term debt strategy is not yet defined.  We note that
some of the group's strategic initiatives scheduled for 2020 were
delayed or otherwise restructured due to various legal and
operational reasons. This, in our view, highlights the complexity
of the group's operations and legal structure. Moreover, the
group's long-term strategy regarding recourse debt is yet to be
defined. While, in the short term, new sizeable acquisitions appear
unlikely because travel restrictions have complicated the due
diligence process, some new debt may eventually materialize once
transactions take place. We therefore modify our ratings by one
notch to reflect this uncertainty.

"The stable outlook on Fincraft Group reflects our expectations
that over the next 12 months the group will not accumulate material
new debt to pursue acquisitions, while generating sufficient cash
flows to meet its outstanding obligations on bonds.

"We may take a negative rating action if rapid accumulation of debt
results in deterioration of stressed leverage. We could also lower
the ratings if the group failed to dispose of assets on time,
putting pressure on cash flows. A negative rating action may also
take place if risks from Fincraft Group's entrepreneurial ownership
materialize."

A positive rating action appears to be remote at this stage due to
the still challenging operating environment in Kazakhstan and
volatile nature of the group's operations.




=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================

PROMONTORIA HOLDING 264: S&P Affirms 'B-' ICR on Solid Liquidity
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B-' ratings on air cargo and
ground handling operator Promontoria Holding 264 B.V. and its
senior secured debt, and its 'B+' issue rating on the company's
revolving credit facility. The recovery ratings on the debt remain
unchanged.

The negative outlook reflects S&P's view that Promontoria's cash
flow and financial metrics will be under considerable pressure in
the coming quarters due to sluggish trading conditions.
Additionally, there is high uncertainty regarding the impact of the
pandemic-induced economic recession on air traffic and
Promontoria's financial position and liquidity.

S&P said, "Thanks to various proactive treasury measures, we now
assess Promontoria's liquidity as adequate (from previously less
than adequate).  In our view, ample liquidity should help
Promontoria withstand the ongoing weak trading conditions and
absorb the impact of negative free operating cash flow (FOCF) while
the industry starts to recover, which we believe could happen by
mid-2021. In addition to the sale and lease back of a warehouse in
Copenhagen in April 2020, which released net proceeds of about
EUR28 million, liquidity measures included the equivalent of EUR26
million ($30.6 million) of unsecured promissory notes and the
equivalent of EUR65 million ($76.6 million) of a direct grant under
the U.S. Payroll Support Program (PSP) of the Coronavirus Aid,
Relief, and Economic Security Act (CARES Act) obtained through the
U.S. subsidiary WFS Inc. in June-July 2020. Cost-savings measures,
operational efficiency initiatives--such as the reduction in staff
costs, the renegotiation of contracts with suppliers and the
deferral of rentals, payroll, and social taxes--and stringent
working capital management also improved liquidity. We therefore
forecast that Promontoria ended 2020 with a cash balance of EUR170
million-EUR180 million, much higher than EUR66 million at Dec. 31,
2019. Accordingly, we forecast that liquidity sources will cover
liquidity uses by 1.5x-1.6x in the next 12 months."

As stipulated by the legal documentation of the revolving credit
facility (RCF), a potential covenant breach would not constitute a
drain on Promontoria's liquidity.   The company obtained a
financial covenant amendment pertaining to its RCF in which the net
senior secured leverage ratio was replaced by a minimum liquidity
covenant of EUR50 million (initially EUR40 million) and valid until
end-March 2021. S&P said, "We believe that Promontoria will pass
the covenant test with significant headroom at the end of each
month until that date. However, unless the minimum liquidity
covenant remains in place beyond the currently agreed end March
date, we anticipate a breach of the senior secured net leverage
covenant in 2021. That said, we understand that a covenant breach
would not trigger an event of default nor a repayment under the
RCF; but rather, it would represent a draw stop under the RCF,
which is currently already fully drawn."

A spike in COVID-19 cases continues to weigh on air passenger
traffic.  Given the new round of government-imposed lockdowns and
travel restrictions to combat the spread of COVID-19, there is
still considerable uncertainty regarding the outlook for air travel
and the recovery of trading conditions. Promontoria's ground
handling segment (about 30% of the group's 2019 revenue) continues
to suffer heavily. Under our current base case, 2020 traffic as
measured by revenue passenger kilometers and revenues was likely
65%-80% lower than in 2019. S&P said, "We see a weak recovery in
2021, with traffic and ground handling revenue still 40%-60% lower
than in 2019. We also revised down our expectations for 2022 to
20%-30% below 2019 levels, marginally lower than our previous
forecast. Furthermore, we do not envisage air traffic returning to
2019 levels until at least 2024."

Positively, the company's cargo handling services (about 65% of
group revenue in 2019) prove to be more resilient.  Cargo flights
are not restricted, e-commerce is booming, and unutilized passenger
airplanes are used for pure cargo flights. S&P said, "Based on our
expectation of a 10% drop in cargo handling revenue in 2020, we
anticipate a slow recovery of 4%-5% in 2021 compared with 2020.
This is in line with our expectation of GDP growth in the
respective regions. Overall, we forecast that Promontoria's revenue
will rise about 14%-15% in 2021 against 2020 level to EUR1.18
billion-EUR1.2 billion."

S&P said, "Similarly, reported EBITDA is likely to double in 2021,
spurring a moderate improvement in the company's debt to EBITDA.
We forecast that reported EBITDA (after restructuring and
nonrecurring costs) could recover to as much as EUR45 million-EUR50
million (S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA of EUR150
million-EUR160 million) in 2021 from about EUR20 million (adjusted
EBITDA of EUR125 million-EUR130 million) in 2020. The ongoing weak
profitability will hinder FOCF from turning positive in the next 12
months, even factoring in only a maintenance capital expenditure
(capex) of up to EUR15 million. We forecast that Promontoria's
adjusted debt has increased moderately in 2020, reaching up to
EUR1.3 billion from about EUR1.2 billion as of Dec. 31, 2019, and
it should stay relatively stable in 2021. Our forecasted debt
primarily comprises senior secured notes of EUR660 million,
operating lease commitments with a net present value of about
EUR300 million, the full drawdown of the EUR100 million RCF, the
use of factoring facilities, as well as postretirement debt and
other debt guarantees and litigation. We now also include in our
debt calculations the equivalent of EUR26 million of unsecured
promissory notes under the U.S. PSP. Accordingly, we forecast the
S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA has weakened to 9.0x-10x
in 2020 from 6.1x in 2019. Positively, it is likely to improve to
8.0x-9.0x in 2021.

"The negative outlook reflects our view that Promontoria's cash
flow and financial metrics will be under considerable pressure in
the coming quarters due to sluggish trading conditions.
Additionally, there is high uncertainty regarding the impact of the
pandemic-induced economic recession on air traffic and
Promontoria's financial position and liquidity.

"We would lower the rating if we saw that continued cash burn
diminished the company's financial flexibility, translating into a
material shortfall of liquidity sources to uses for the coming 12
months (absent offsetting measures), increasing financial leverage,
and making its capital structure unsustainable. This could occur if
the recovery of passenger traffic is delayed or appears to be
structurally weaker than expected due to prolonged COVID-19-related
lockdowns and travel restrictions.

"We could revise the outlook to stable if trading conditions appear
set to gradually recover and Promontoria demonstrates a clear path
to achieving positive FOCF, while maintaining liquidity headroom."


SIGNATURE FOODS: S&P Assigns Prelim. 'B' LT ICR, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'B' preliminary long-term issuer
credit and issue ratings to Signature Foods (SF; legal name PHM SF
Dutch Bidco) and its new term loan B (TLB).

Signature Foods (SF; legal name PHM SF Dutch Bidco) is a leading
chilled convenience food producer in the Benelux region (consists
of Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg).

Despite its modest revenue base and high geographic concentration,
SF benefits from well-known local brands in niche categories with
strong growth, which enable good pricing power.

S&P said, "SF's capital structure is highly leveraged, but we
believe it will be able to maintain positive FOCF.  Under the
proposed new capital structure, the group will operate with a EUR62
million revolving credit facility (RCF) undrawn at closing, a
EUR341 million TLB, and EUR87 million of payment-in-kind (PIK)
notes. We forecast that over the next two years SF will have
adjusted debt to EBITDA of 6.0x-6.5x, fund from operations (FFO)
cash interest of about 4.0x, and positive FOCF.

"We believe SF will pursue regular acquisitions in coming years to
consolidate the fragmented chilled food sector in the Benelux
region and Europe, and have included this in our financial
projections. That said, the group's focus on small-to-midsize
acquisitions in adjacent segments and nearby geographies should
mitigate integration risk, which it has managed well in the past.

"Our base-case scenario is supported by continued organic growth of
about 5%-6% and contributions from acquisitions. We project
adjusted EBITDA will increase to EUR65 million-EUR70 million in
fiscal 2022 and about EUR80 million in fiscal 2023. Organic revenue
growth should be supported by positive volume growth prospects for
the retail spreads and dips business. The higher share of earnings
from the highly profitable branded business should help offset
potentially volatile raw material costs. We also account for volume
expansion in Poland and a good track record of operating cost
control. We see potential upside in the second half of fiscal 2022
if there is a rebound in the food service business, which has been
struggling due to pandemic-related lockdowns.

"We view SF's good track record of positive FOCF over past years as
supportive of the rating. We estimate FOCF of up to EUR10 million
in fiscal 2022 due mostly to high capex, followed by a rebound in
fiscal 2023 to about EUR25 million thanks to higher EBITDA and
lower capex. Overall, the group's business has moderate capex
intensity and experiences limited working capital swings during the
year."

The group's relatively small size and geographic concentration in
the Benelux region won't fully offset its positive growth prospects
and good profitability   SF operates in relatively niche product
categories within the chilled convenience foods industry. With
projected revenue of about EUR300 million and adjusted EBITDA of
EUR57 million in fiscal 2021, S&P assesses its size of operations
as modest compared with large food multinationals, which also
limits its product innovation, marketing, and distribution
capabilities. That said, most direct competitors in existing
markets are small, local firms.

The group's revenue is also highly geographically concentrated,
with about 65% generated in the Netherlands and nearly 30% in
Belgium. Spreads and dips is the group's biggest profit contributor
by far, but it is also well established, with shares of about 60%
in its home markets.

The positive volume growth prospects of categories like spreads and
dips are supported by changing consumption habits in Europe, with
more at-home meals and an increasing appetite for exotic flavors.
S&P said, "In a post-COVID-19 environment, we expect a slight
rebalancing of growth from retail sales, which have fared very
strongly in recent months, to the food service sales (22% of
revenue). The products' low average selling price of EUR2-EUR3 on
average also makes it marketable to large target population.
Overall, we believe the group will continue to pursue a consistent
business strategy in terms of product and geographic expansion.
This also reflects the continuity of senior management, which has
deep knowledge of its markets and segments."

SF benefits from a large branded business (65% of revenue), with a
portfolio of well-known local brands in the Benelux region, such as
Johma and Hamal. S&P thinks the group's pricing power and
increasing share of earnings from the branded business should
enable SF to maintain high and stable profitability with EBITDA
margins of 17%-18%.

S&P also views positively its established retail relationships in
its key markets, which are supported by a presence in both branded
and private labels categories. That said, there is some single-name
concentration to retailers like Jumbo (20% of sales).

As vaccine rollouts in several countries continue, S&P Global
Ratings believes there remains a high degree of uncertainty about
the evolution of the coronavirus pandemic and its economic effects.
Widespread immunization, which certain countries might achieve by
midyear, will help pave the way for a return to more normal levels
of social and economic activity. S&P said, "We use this assumption
about vaccine timing in assessing the economic and credit
implications associated with the pandemic. As the situation
evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates
accordingly."

S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that SF's operating
performance should remain resilient, supported notably by positive
growth prospects for its main segments like spreads and dips in the
Netherlands. We forecast the group's S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
EBITDA margin will remain at 17.0%-18.5% over the next 12-18
months, given that key branded products and efficient operating
cost structure should enable the group to withstand potential high
price pressure and raw materials inflation.

"Additionally, we believe SF will maintain adjusted debt to EBITDA
of about 6.0x-6.5x, FFO cash interest of 3.5x-4.0x, and positive
FOCF over the next 12-18 months.

"We could downgrade SF if we see weaker-than-anticipated FOCF
generation in fiscal 2022, with a low chance of a rapid rebound
through corrective measures. We think this could occur if volume
growth in spreads and dips decreases substantially in the
Netherlands combined with higher raw materials costs, cost overruns
in the large expansion capex projects due in fiscal 2022, or if
there is negative impact from the integration of new acquisitions.

"We could also take a negative rating action if FFO cash interest
decreases to close to 2.0x.

"For a positive rating action, we would need to see adjusted debt
to EBITDA falling below 5.0x, with a material increase in the FOCF
base on a sustained basis." A higher rating would be contingent on
a firm commitment from the new owner to sustain such a low level of
debt leverage over the medium term.

A significant increase in the FOCF base is likely to arise from the
company achieving a substantially larger scale of operations with
much-improved geographic diversity.


WINTERSHALL DEA 2: Fitch Gives Final 'BB+' to EUR850MM Notes
------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Wintershall Dea Finance 2 B.V.'s EUR650
million and EUR850 million subordinated resettable fixed-rate notes
final 'BB+' ratings. The notes are guaranteed by Wintershall Dea
GmbH on a subordinated basis. The securities qualify for 50% equity
credit (EC).

The hybrid notes are deeply subordinated and rank senior only to
Wintershall Dea's share capital, while coupon payments can be
deferred at the option of the issuer. These features are reflected
in the 'BB+' rating being two notches lower than Wintershall Dea's
'BBB' Issuer Default Rating (IDR). The 50% EC reflects the hybrids'
cumulative interest coupon, a feature that is more debt-like in
nature.

Wintershall Dea's IDR has a Stable Outlook, which reflects
Fitch’s expectations that the company's leverage metrics will
return to levels that are commensurate with a 'BBB' rating from
2021, after exceeding Fitch's negative rating sensitivities in
2020. This will be driven by production from new projects from 2020
and 2021, an expected increase in oil and gas prices, Wintershall
Dea's prompt financial response to a more difficult macro backdrop
for the oil and gas industry caused by the pandemic, positive
impact of Norwegian taxation changes and the impact of the hybrid
notes placement.

The rating of Wintershall Dea is supported by the scale of its oil
and gas production, a diversified asset profile and fairly low
through-the-cycle leverage. While Russia (BBB/Stable) and
lower-rated countries in the Middle East and Africa and Latin
America account for over half of the company's output, the
contribution of these regions to EBITDA is lower than Norway's
(AAA/Stable), which Fitch expects to decline as new Norwegian
fields add to production.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

NOTES

Ratings Reflect Deep Subordination: The proposed notes are rated
two notches below Wintershall Dea's IDR of 'BBB', given their deep
subordination and consequently, lower recovery prospects in a
liquidation or bankruptcy relative to senior obligations. The notes
rank senior only to the claims of equity shareholders, including
Wintershall Dea's preference shares that Fitch treats as ordinary
equity.

Equity Treatment: The securities qualify for 50% EC as they meet
Fitch's criteria with regard to deep subordination, such as
remaining effective maturity of at least five years, full
discretion to defer coupons for at least five years and limited
events of default. EC is limited to 50% given the cumulative
interest coupon, a feature that is more debt-like in nature.

Effective Maturity Date: Although the hybrids are perpetual, Fitch
deems their effective maturity in 2031 (the EUR650 million notes)
and 2034 (the EUR850 million notes), in accordance with the
agency's Corporate Hybrids Treatment and Notching Criteria. From
this date, the coupon step-up is within Fitch's aggregate threshold
rate of 100bp, but the issuer will no longer be subject to
replacement language, which discloses the intent to redeem the
instrument at its reset date with the proceeds of a similar
instrument or with equity.

According to Fitch's criteria, the 50% EC would change to 0% five
years before the effective maturity date. The issuer has the option
to redeem the notes starting from three months before the first
interest reset date for the EUR650 million notes and six months
before the first interest reset date for the EUR850 million notes.

Change of Control EC-Neutral: Terms of the hybrid notes provide
Wintershall Dea with an option to repurchase them in the event of a
change of control. If the notes are not called, the coupon will
increase by 500bp, which does not negate the EC assigned to the
notes. Fitch does not expect Wintershall Dea's potential IPO to be
a change-of-control event as defined in the hybrid notes
documentation.

WINTERSHALL DEA

Lower Capex, Common Dividend Suspended: In response to lower
hydrocarbon prices, Wintershall Dea had sought to decrease capex by
30% to EUR1.2 billion in 2020, exploration spending by 20% to
EUR175 million and costs by 10%. It also suspended dividends. These
measures in addition to the temporary tax incentives in Norway
would have allowed the company to keep its funds from operations
(FFO) net leverage at 3.0x in 2020 compared with 2.9x in 2019
(pro-forma for the full year of Wintershall and DEA merger) despite
sharply lower oil and gas prices.

Additional Levers Available: In line with Fitch's current oil and
gas price deck, Fitch assumes Wintershall Dea's FFO net leverage
will decrease to 1.8x in 2021, a level that is well below Fitch’s
negative sensitivity of 2.5x for the 'BBB' rating. Should oil and
gas prices remain lower than currently forecast, lower dividends
and potentially more asset sales may protect Wintershall Dea's
credit profile from more difficult economic conditions.

Gas Price Jump to Reverse: Fitch expects the surge in European gas
prices in January 2021 to be temporary. Extremely high spot gas
prices in east Asia, cold weather in some parts of Europe and
normalised European gas inventories led to an increase in title
transfer facility (TTF) European hub prices. We, however, assume
European gas prices at USD3.75/kcf in 2021 due to supply capacity
in the global LNG market materially outstripping demand under
normal weather conditions.

New Projects Coming Online: Wintershall Dea started production in
2020 at a number of oil and gas fields in Norway, Russia and Egypt
and will continue to do so in 2021 with a combined peak production
of 242kboe/d. Given that development of all those projects is
well-advanced, execution risk is minimal. Based on information
provided by Wintershall Dea, Fitch believes those projects have
sound economics, even in an environment of low oil and gas prices.

Formula-based Gas Pricing: Only about 35% of Wintershall Dea's gas
production is directly linked to spot TTF or Brent pricing, with
pricing of the remaining production linked to different formulas or
non-European gas prices. Formula-based and domestic gas prices
remain subject to volatility resulting from changing benchmark
prices and exchange rates. Realised gas prices in 9M20 declined 40%
versus a 46% decline of spot TTF prices, driven by lower benchmark
prices and a higher share of production from non-European locations
with lower profitability but marginally higher stability.

Climate Targets: Wintershall Dea plans to reach net zero greenhouse
gas emissions in upstream activities by 2030, by reducing Scope 1
and 2 emissions to the lowest technically and economically feasible
levels and offsetting remaining emissions with nature-based
solutions to achieve net zero levels. It also plans to reduce
methane intensity to 0.1% by 2025. A high proportion of gas in
total output (73%) and low production costs position Wintershall
Dea firmly for the energy mix transition. Yet, its focus on
upstream activities may put it at a disadvantage versus peers with
a more diversified business profile.

Country Risk Limited: Wintershall Dea's assets and production are
well-diversified. Production in Russia (BBB/Stable) and lower-rated
countries in North Africa and Latin America are estimated to have
accounted for around 30% of EBITDA in 2020. The share will,
however, gradually decrease to 25% in 2023 following an increase in
production in Norway, for example from Dvalin and fields in the
Njord Area.

Norwegian Tax Deferral: The Norwegian government has granted a
temporary tax relief to oil and gas companies to support the
industry and employment. Projects for which the associated
development plans are submitted to the government by end-2022 and
approved before end-2023 will benefit from the new regime until
start of production. Fitch incorporates EUR400 million of tax
rebate into Wintershall Dea's 2020 cashflow and more than a EUR150
million refund in 2021, but expect higher taxes paid thereafter.

Nord Stream 2 Exposure: Wintershall Dea is one of five
international project partners that provided debt funding to The
Nord Stream 2 pipeline project that is fully owned by Gazprom PJSC
(BBB/Stable). The construction of Nord Stream 2 has been subject to
a considerable amount of public and political attention in recent
years, including warnings from the US administration of sanctions
against companies participating in the project. Construction of the
pipeline re-started in December 2020. Fitch treats any negative
consequences from Wintershall Dea's financial participation in the
project as an event risk.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Wintershall Dea's closest peers are Aker BP ASA (BBB-/Stable) and
Diamondback Energy, Inc (BBB/Rating Watch Negative). Wintershall
Dea's production in 2019 of 642kboe/d was significantly higher than
that of Aker BP ASA (156kboe/d) or Diamondback Energy (283kboe/d).
Wintershall Dea is also more geographically diversified than its
peers with operations in northern Europe, MENA, Latin America and
Russia compared with North Sea for Aker BP and the US for
Diamondback.

Wintershall Dea had higher net leverage in 2019 than Aker BP ASA
and Diamondback, but Fitch expects leverage to be broadly similar
for the three companies from 2021.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's key assumptions within its rating case for the issuer
include:

-- Brent oil price at USD45/b in 2021, USD50/b in 2022, and
    USD53/b thereafter.

-- TTF gas price at USD3.75/kcf in 2021, USD4.5/kcf in 2022 and
    USD5/kcf thereafter.

-- EUR/USD exchange rate at 1.18 in 2021 and thereafter.

-- Production volumes growth for 2021-2023 slightly below
    management's projections.

-- Cash inflows related to Nord Stream 2 loan excluded from our
    Forecast.

-- Capex averaging EUR1.2 billion p.a. in 2020-2023 (including
    capitalised exploration and decommissioning spending).

-- Average dividends of EUR550 million p.a. in 2021-2023.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

-- FFO net leverage sustainably below 1.5x, coupled with
    consistently positive free cash flow (FCF).

-- Successful ramp-up of new upstream projects leading to oil and
    gas output in excess of 750 kboe/d and more geographically
    balanced output from countries with a more developed operating
    environment.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

-- FFO net leverage sustainably above 2.5x.

-- Aggressive M&A, dividend payments or other policies materially
    affecting credit profile and leading to consistently negative
    FCF.

-- Sustained weakness in gas prices.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Strong Liquidity: Wintershall Dea had EUR0.5 billion short-term
debt owed to its WIGA transportation JV, accounted for as an equity
affiliate, within a cash pooling framework at 30 September 2020.
Its short-term debt was fully covered by EUR0.5 billion of cash and
cash equivalents and a EUR0.9 billion committed revolving credit
facility (RCF) maturing in 2025. Its liquidity was further
strengthened with the issuance of the EUR1.5 billion hybrid notes.
Fitch expects net proceeds from the notes to be used to prepay
other debt.

Fitch estimates that Wintershall Dea will generate positive FCF
over the next 12 months as lower underlying operating cashflow will
be offset by tax refund in Norway, and cuts to operating cost and
capex. Wintershall Dea has debt maturities from 2022, which will
amount to roughly EUR1 billion annually until 2025. Fitch expects
some of them to be repaid with FCF, while the rest may be
refinanced.

SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS

-- Wintershall Dea's 2019 EBITDA was reduced by EUR238 million to
    eliminate the effects of subsidiary deconsolidation,
    restructuring costs and other items. Its 2019 FFO was
    increased by EUR85 million to reflect restructuring and other
    non-recurring costs.

-- EBITDA was reduced by EUR56 million to deduct right-of-use
    assets depreciation and lease-related interest expense in
    2019. At the same time, its lease liabilities were removed
    from debt.

ESG Considerations

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.




===========
S E R B I A
===========

SRPSKA FABRIKA: Serbia In Talks with Potential Investors
--------------------------------------------------------
Radomir Ralev at SeeNews reports that Serbia's government is in
talks with potential investors for the sale of insolvent glassmaker
Srpska Fabrika Stakla (SFS), prime minister Ana Brnabic said.

"We are in talks with potential investors, they are conducting a
due diligence, an analysis of the financial situation and the
potential of the factory," SeeNews quotes Ms. Brnabic as saying as
seen in a video file posted on the website of Tanjug news agency on
Jan. 23.

According to SeeNews, she noted that the sale of the glassmaker
would be an investment of strategic importance for Serbia as the
country could become an exporter of glass products for the entire
region of Southeastern Europe (SEE).

SFS was declared bankrupt in 2017, SeeNews relates.




===========
T U R K E Y
===========

TURKEY: S&P Affirms B+/B Sovereign Credit Ratings, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings, on Jan. 22, 2021, affirmed its unsolicited
'B+/B' long- and short-term foreign currency sovereign credit
ratings on Turkey and its unsolicited 'BB-/B' long- and short-term
local currency sovereign credit ratings. The outlook is stable.

S&P also affirmed the unsolicited national scale ratings at
'trAA+/trA-1+'.

Outlook

The stable outlook considers the lingering risks from Turkey's
accumulated economic imbalances and the fallout from the pandemic
over the next 12 months. These are balanced against the resilience
of Turkey's private sector and the still-contained stock of net
general government debt. S&P expect the Turkish economy will
continue to recover while inflation moderates and current account
deficits reduce.

Downside scenario

S&P could lower the ratings if it saw heightened risks of banking
system distress, implying potential contingent liabilities for the
government. This could be the case, for example, if banks' access
to foreign funding diminished or domestic residents persistently
converted their savings to foreign currency, which is not its
base-case scenario. Weakened asset quality following 2020's
largescale credit stimulus could also put pressure on the banking
system.

Upside scenario

S&P said, "We could consider an upgrade if Turkey's balance of
payments position strengthened beyond our current projection,
particularly the net central bank foreign exchange reserves. This
could happen if Turkey ran lower current account deficits, for
example, as a result of stronger recovery in goods exports and
tourism services receipts. It could also occur if domestic resident
dollarization and elevated imports of non-monetary gold reversed.

"We could also raise the rating if we observed a sustained enhanced
public policy predictability and monetary policy effectiveness."

Rationale

Like other countries, Turkey has been substantially hit by the
coronavirus pandemic and experienced another notable increase in
COVID-19 cases toward the end of 2020. The authorities did not
adopt a full lockdown but instead opted for targeted regional
restrictions--including selective business closures and curfews and
restrictions for specific age groups--as they did during the first
wave of infections earlier in 2020. The number of new cases has
since been falling.

To cushion the economic effect of the pandemic, the government
enacted a series of fiscal measures such as additional health care
spending, tax deferrals, and labor market support programs.
However, largescale credit stimulus was also deployed in the first
half of 2020, with the stock of domestic credit expanding by 36%
overall last year.

S&P considers that this credit stimulus underpinned stronger
growth, which it now estimates at 0.9% in real terms in 2020.
However, it also led to an accumulation of macroeconomic
imbalances, including a wider current account deficit, a weakened
foreign exchange reserve position, and sticky double-digit
inflation, which reached 14.6% in year-on-year terms in December.

In response to the pressured Turkish lira, the government's policy
approach shifted notably in the second half of 2020. It
discontinued credit stimulus and the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT)
tightened monetary policy through raising the key one-week repo
rate by a cumulative 875 basis points since the end of September.
S&P said, "We consider that this apparent return to a more
conventional policy toolkit should help moderate the accumulated
imbalances, particularly external ones. There could still be risks
of reversal, for example if growth momentum wanes sparking
increased political pressure to revive it. This is not our baseline
scenario, however, given the recent announcements from the Ministry
of Finance and the central bank."

Positively, Turkish banks have maintained access to foreign funding
even during difficult times and were able to rollover maturing
loans throughout 2020, like they did in the aftermath of the August
2018 currency crisis. The government also demonstrated access to
foreign capital markets, issuing Eurobonds in October and November.
More recently, a dual-tranche Eurobond issuance took place in
January 2021, which was several times oversubscribed. S&P estimate
that Turkey's net general government debt totalled 35% of GDP at
the end of 2020, providing fiscal headroom in the event of a
further negative shock.

S&P said, "Our ratings on Turkey remain constrained by what we view
as its weak institutions. We see limited checks and balances
between government bodies, with power concentrated in the hands of
the executive branch, which renders policy responses difficult to
predict." Nevertheless, the outcome of local elections held in 2019
suggests that Turkey's political system retains a degree of
competition.

Institutional and Economic Profile: Growth in 2021 will depend on
the external environment and speed of vaccine rollout

-- S&P estimates that--bolstered by a large credit stimulus--the
Turkish economy expanded by close to 1% last year. Besides China,
Egypt, and Vietnam, Turkey is the only other major emerging market
economy to have grown, by our estimates.

-- S&P expects continued economic recovery, which is nevertheless
set to slow in quarterly terms.

-- Policy and institutional risks remain elevated.

S&P estimates that the Turkish economy expanded by 0.9% in 2020,
which represents a significant upward revision to the 3.3%
contraction we projected in July. Apart from China, Egypt, and
Vietnam, it believes Turkey is the only other major emerging market
economy to have registered growth, despite being hit hard by the
coronavirus pandemic.

This unusually strong outturn is largely explained by the sizable
credit stimulus the authorities engineered during the first half of
2020. Although Turkey has previously undergone several rapid credit
extension episodes, S&P estimates that the stock of domestic credit
increased by a total 36% in 2020, the highest level in over a
decade. The expansion appears significant even taking into account
the foreign exchange (FX) rate effect: Since about one third of
loans are denominated in FX, the stock inflates when the lira
depreciates.

The credit stimulus was fairly broad; corporate and household loans
rose rapidly--including housing loans, automobile loans, and, to a
lesser degree, credit card lines. This propelled private
consumption and investments. S&P estimates that both actually rose
last year, contrary to our prior expectations of contraction.

Despite providing short-term support to the economy, the credit
boom has widened Turkey's macroeconomic imbalances. Specifically,
stronger domestic demand kept imports elevated, which we estimate
grew by 6% in real terms last year (remaining flat in U.S. dollar
terms). This contributed to a current account deficit of 5.4% of
GDP last year, the highest level since 2013. Concurrently, the
central bank foreign exchange reserves fell and deteriorated in
quality while inflation reached 14.6% in year-on-year terms by the
end of 2020.

S&P considers that it will take time to unwind the accumulated
imbalances, but the authorities have already taken steps toward a
more conventional economic policy. In October 2020, the president
replaced the leadership of the ministry of finance and the central
bank. Since then, the CBRT has taken decisive steps to tighten
monetary policy amid a continued slide in the exchange rate. Policy
rates were raised by a cumulative 675 basis points over the last
three months of 2020 while previous regulations incentivizing banks
to lend are being abolished.

In S&P's view, the adopted measures should ultimately help Turkey
control inflation, while also reducing balance of payments risks
and replenishing FX reserves. At the same time, as previous policy
stimulus is withdrawn, the pace of recovery is set to slow in
quarterly terms. It remains to be seen whether lower growth for a
potentially prolonged period would be palatable politically.

S&P said, "Beyond government policy direction, we consider that the
shape of Turkish economic growth in the short term will depend on
the external environment and the vaccine rollout in Turkey.
Although we expect international tourism to recover, the process
will likely be only gradual, which could continue to constrain
domestic economic prospects." Turkey has also announced plans for a
vaccine rollout with a strong initial uptake, but it remains to be
seen whether this is sustained. That would, in turn, largely depend
on the availability of sufficient supplies and population's
willingness to get vaccinated.

S&P said, "Overall, our medium-term growth projections are
unchanged, with real GDP projected to expand by an average of 3.4%
annually over the medium term. We note, however, that Turkey's
economy is large and diverse, characterized by a highly flexible
SME sector, a strategic geographic location, and a young and
growing population. Consequently, economic recovery could
ultimately prove stronger than we currently project, particularly
beyond 2021.

"We consider that Turkey's institutional arrangements remain
comparatively weak and continue to constrain the sovereign credit
ratings. In the June 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections,
the president and the Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi-led coalition
secured a victory that marked the final chapter in Turkey's
transition to an executive presidential system. We see limited
checks and balances between government bodies." Because power is
concentrated in the hands of the executive branch, it is difficult
to predict policy responses.

Nevertheless, a degree of domestic political competition remains,
as highlighted by the local election results in 2019, when
opposition parties secured the mayorships of several large
cities--including Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir--and the electoral
authorities acknowledged these results.

Turkey's international relations remain complex. The country has
lately been involved in a series of military conflicts, including
in Libya, Syria, and more recently in the Nagorno-Karabakh war
between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Tensions with the EU and the U.S.
remain, even though immediate prospects of international sanctions
have subsided. The U.S. imposed limited CAATSA (Countering
America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions against
several defense industry officials over Turkey's purchases of S-400
anti-aircraft systems from Russia. This has had a limited impact so
far. Disagreements also remain with the EU over Turkey's continued
drilling activities in the Eastern Mediterranean in search for
gas.

Flexibility and Performance Profile: Recent policy steps suggest a
return to a more conventional macroeconomic rulebook

-- The CBRT has decisively tightened interest rates in recent
months and signaled inflation control as a primary monetary policy
objective.

-- Nevertheless, imbalances remain high, particularly for balance
of payments, with high short-term external debt and limited foreign
exchange reserve firepower.

-- Positively, Turkey's fiscal indicators remain strong, boasting
one of the smallest increases in debt to GDP ratios globally as a
result of the pandemic.

Turkey's monetary policy has historically been ineffective at
managing inflation. The CBRT has never met the 5% medium-term
target introduced in 2012, while Turkey's real effective exchange
rate has fluctuated substantially. The CBRT has faced increasing
political pressure in recent years, which frequently delayed timely
responses to rising inflation.

Toward the end of 2020, Turkey's monetary policy appears to have
shifted significantly, reversing the previous easing cycle
implemented between mid-2019 and mid-2020. The president replaced
the central bank governor in October and since then, the CBRT has
more firmly communicated its focus on the 5% inflation target and a
commitment to a market-determined exchange rate. Specific policy
steps included:

-- Decisive interest rate hikes in November and December of a
cumulative 675 basis points, bringing the nominal rate to 17% and
real rates into positive territory, considering inflation of
14%-15%;

-- Communicating a plan to withdraw forbearance measures
applicable to the banking sector, which would expire in mid-2021;
and

-- Abolishing the so-called asset ratio rule calculation, which
previously effectively pushed banks to lend more.

S&P said, "In our view, these steps, if sustained, should help
control elevated inflation. Consumer price index growth measured
14.6% year-on-year in December 2020 or almost 3x the CBRT's 5%
target. It remains unclear whether the tight monetary policy will
be sustained over a longer period, allowing the CBRT to regain
credibility. We consider that as tighter policy fully feeds into
the domestic economy, political pressure to loosen it could
resurface, like it did in 2019.

"We also believe that recent monetary policy steps should help
address Turkey's weakened balance of payments position. In 2020, we
estimate that Turkey's current account registered a 5.4% of GDP
deficit, the highest since 2013." The widening has largely been
underpinned by the effect of the credit stimulus, which contributed
to higher imports. A loss of exports, including in the tourism
sector due to the pandemic, also had an impact. Another major
contributor to the wider current account deficit was the import of
non-monetary gold, which totalled close to $20 billion compared
with the historical average of about $10 billion annually. It
effectively represents dollarization, with Turkish residents
shifting away from the lira to preserve purchasing power amid the
volatile exchange rate.

In parallel, the CBRT's FX reserves have declined and deteriorated
in quality as its borrowing has picked up via swap lines on the
liability side in foreign currency. After subtracting these
obligations, we estimate that usable FX reserves dropped close to
zero last year, from around $47 billion in 2019. In S&P's view,
this limits the CBRT's firepower to counteract further exchange
rate volatility or to meet unexpected external financing
requirements.

The central bank has communicated that it plans to replenish its
depleted reserves, although S&P considers that, absent a current
account surplus, achieving this would be challenging. The CBRT's FX
reserves could benefit from portfolio flows to emerging markets,
including Turkey, but this would result in borrowed as opposed to
own reserves. Reserves could also strengthen if domestic residents
were to de-dollarize, which has not happened so far. Subscribing to
an IMF program could be yet another avenue, but we understand this
is not currently a policy option.

S&P said, "In our view, Turkey's fiscal position remains
comparatively strong and continues to support the sovereign
ratings. We estimate that--as a result of the implemented support
measures and the pandemic's effect on growth last year--the general
government deficit widened to 4.0% of GDP in 2020, from 3.2% in
2019." However, the increase in public leverage was higher,
primarily because of Turkish lira depreciation. Close to half of
government debt is denominated in foreign currencies. In addition,
back in May 2020, the government injected capital worth 0.5% of GDP
into state banks via the Sovereign Wealth Fund. S&P estimates net
general government debt totaled 35% of GDP at the end of 2020,
which leaves the government fiscal policy space to maneuver. The
government also issued Eurobonds in October and November,
demonstrating a ready access to capital markets. A more recent
dual-tranche Eurobond issuance in January 2021 was several times
oversubscribed.

Although fiscal leverage remains low, we note risks from contingent
liabilities. S&P said, "We estimate that direct government
guarantees and commitments under public-private partnership
agreements remain limited, at below 10% of GDP. That said, in an
adverse scenario, we anticipate that the government may have to
extend support to the financial sector, particularly the public
banks. We note that two cases of recapitalization have already
occurred over the past 18 months (0.7% of GDP in April 2019 and
0.5% of GDP in May 2020)." Additional support may be required
because of the rapid loan growth combined with the effects of the
COVID-19 pandemic on Turkish households and the corporate sector.

Bank asset quality is likely to deteriorate in the coming months.
Last year's Turkish lira 20% depreciation and the recent increases
in domestic interest rates would weigh on the corporate sector.
This could become more apparent once the forbearance measures are
withdrawn, particularly the extended period to classify loans as
nonperforming. Positively, Turkish banks have been consistently
able to rollover their external debt, even amid very difficult
markets, such as throughout 2020 and in the aftermath of the 2018
currency crisis.

The long-term local currency rating on Turkey is one notch higher
than the long-term foreign currency rating. S&P said, "We consider
that Turkey has a managed-float exchange rate regime and
comparatively developed local currency capital markets, while about
50% of government debt is denominated in local currency and almost
entirely held domestically. In our view, these factors imply lower
default risk on Turkey's lira-denominated sovereign commercial debt
than on its foreign currency-denominated debt."

In accordance with S&P's relevant policies and procedures, the
Rating Committee was composed of analysts that are qualified to
vote in the committee, with sufficient experience to convey the
appropriate level of knowledge and understanding of the methodology
applicable. At the onset of the committee, the chair confirmed that
the information provided to the Rating Committee by the primary
analyst had been distributed in a timely manner and was sufficient
for Committee members to make an informed decision.

After the primary analyst gave opening remarks and explained the
recommendation, the Committee discussed key rating factors and
critical issues in accordance with the relevant criteria.
Qualitative and quantitative risk factors were considered and
discussed, looking at track-record and forecasts.

The chair ensured every voting member was given the opportunity to
articulate his/her opinion. The chair or designee reviewed the
draft report to ensure consistency with the Committee decision. The
views and the decision of the rating committee are summarized in
the above rationale and outlook. The weighting of all rating
factors is described in the methodology used in this rating
action.

  Ratings List

  Ratings Affirmed

  Turkey

   Sovereign Credit Rating
    Foreign Currency |U^       B+/Stable/B
    Local Currency |U^         BB-/Stable/B
    Turkey National Scale |U^  trAA+/--/trA-1+

   Transfer & Convertibility Assessment
    Local Currency |U^         BB-

|U^ Unsolicited ratings with issuer participation, access to
internal documents and access to management.




===========================
U N I T E D   K I N G D O M
===========================

CONDER ALLSLADE: Enters Administration Following Losses
-------------------------------------------------------
David Price at Construction News reports that Portsmouth-based
structural steel specialist Conder Allslade has gone into
administration.

Administrators from RSM took over at the GBP16 million-turnover
firm earlier this month, Construction News recounts.

The company's accounts for 2019 were overdue, but its last filed
accounts for the year ending December 31, 2018, showed it had made
a GBP1.2 million pre-tax loss and had net liabilities of GBP2.5
million, Construction News discloses.

Conder Allslade suffered year after year of seven-figure losses
between 2009 and 2014, even as its revenue grew from GBP5 million
to GBP15.2 million, Construction News recounts.  It returned to
profit in 2015, but its margin remained low at 1-4%, Construction
News states.  The firm became loss-making again in 2018,
Construction News notes.

In 2008, it was acquired by Purico, which has interests in
construction, hotels, paper and the care sector, Construction News
discloses.

Purico provided support in the early part of 2019 to "stabilize the
business", Construction News relays.  This helped the company to
confirm it was a going concern and would be able to trade for the
next 12 months from the date of the accounts on July 19, 2019,
according to Construction News.

Auditor Grant Thornton did not raise any issues in its assessment
of those accounts, Construction News states.


DEBENHAMS PLC: Booho Buys Brands for GBP55MM, 118 Stores to Close
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Business Sale reports that online retailer Boohoo has acquired the
Debenhams brand in a GBP55 million deal that will see the company's
118 remaining UK high street stores close.

Boohoo said that the remaining stores would be wound down when they
are able to reopen after COVID-19 lockdown, Business Sale relates.

According to Business Sale, a statement from Boohoo confirmed: "The
group will only be acquiring the brands and associated intellectual
property rights.  The transaction does not include Debenhams'
retail stores, stock or any financial services."

Debenhams has been searching for a buyer since last summer after
going into administration for the second time in a year in April
2020, Business Sale notes.

JD Sports had looked set to acquire the department store chain in
November last year, before the collapse of Arcadia -- Debenhams'
biggest concession operator – caused it to end its interest,
Business Sale recounts.

Administrators had begun closing the business down after failing to
secure a rescue deal, while it had already been announced that six
stores, including the flagship Oxford Street branch, would not
reopen following lockdown, Business Sale relays.

While Debenhams' remaining stores are now set to close, there could
be some interest in acquiring some of its locations, Business Sale
states.  One potential bidder for some of the Debenhams store
portfolio is Mike Ashley's Frasers group, which has a long-standing
interest in the retailer, Business Sale discloses.


MARKET GATES: Goes Into Administration, Business as Usual
---------------------------------------------------------
Liz Coates at Great Yarmouth Mercury reports that the trio of
companies behind a town centre shopping mall has collapsed into
administration, it has emerged.

Tenants in Market Gates, Great Yarmouth, received letters on Jan.
19 advising them that joint administrators from Deloitte had been
appointed on Dec. 2 -- the day the second lockdown ended and shops
were allowed to reopen, Great Yarmouth Mercury relates.

According to Great Yarmouth Mercury, a spokesman for Deloitte said:
"David Soden and Matt Smith were appointed as administrators over
three shopping centres on December 2.

"These centres are based in Great Yarmouth, Sutton in Ashfield, and
Ashton Under Lyne.

"Each centre is run by Ellandi, who will continue to operate
them."

The letter, seen by this newspaper, said the administrators were
seeking to "stabilise the business, maximise the potential of the
locations by way of both retail and non-retail uses, and consider
an exit strategy to the administrations in due course."

It added that the effect of going into administration was to offer
protection to the limited companies named as Redleaf VI (Ashton),
Baymount Overseas, and Eisinger, Great Yarmouth Mercury notes.

Centre manager Nick Spencer said it was "business as usual" and
that day-to-day trading at the centre would not be affected, Great
Yarmouth Mercury relays.

The centre previously went into administration in 2012 when it was
retained by the Bank of Scotland as part of a much larger
restructuring of its then owners Miller Group, Great Yarmouth
Mercury recounts.

It was subsequently taken on by Ellandi, which claims to have the
largest and most geographically diverse shopping centre portfolio
in the UK, Great Yarmouth Mercury discloses.


SIGNATURE AVIATION: Moody's Puts Ba3 CFR on Review for Downgrade
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has placed the ratings of US leading
fixed base operator Signature Aviation plc (Signature or the
company) on review for downgrade. This includes the corporate
family rating of Ba3, the probability of default rating of Ba3-PD,
and the Ba3 ratings of the $650 million backed senior unsecured
notes due 2028 and $500 million backed senior unsecured notes due
2026 issued by Signature Aviation US Holdings, Inc., a subsidiary
of Signature Aviation plc. The outlook has changed to ratings under
review from negative.

The rating action reflects the announcement of a recommended cash
offer by GIP IV Hancock Bidco, L.P. (Bidco) a limited partnership
controlled by Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP) for the entire
share capital of Signature. The review reflects the uncertainties
over whether the acquisition will result in changes to Signature's
business, financial or liquidity profile.

RATINGS RATIONALE / FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR
DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

On January 11, 2021, it was announced that Signature's board of
directors had agreed the terms for a recommended cash acquisition
of the company by Bidco. The acquisition values Signature's share
capital at approximately $4.626 billion. As an infrastructure
investor Moody's expects GIP to maintain a more conservative
financial policy than traditional private equity investors. The
company's senior unsecured bonds include provisions which require
mandatory payment of the instruments in the event of a downgrade of
the ratings as a result of a change of control. However, GIP has
not yet disclosed it intentions in relation to Signature's capital
structure or the likelihood or extent of any increase in leverage
following the acquisition.

Accordingly the review will be focusing on the possible financial
arrangements following the acquisition, Bidco's overall financial
policy in relation to leverage and dividend distributions, and its
wider strategy for the business.

LIQUIDITY

Signature's liquidity is good, with total cash and available
liquidity headroom of $462 million as at 31 October 2020. This
comprised cash on balance sheet of $87 million and a $400 million
revolving credit facility (RCF) expiring in 2025, of which $25
million was drawn. There are no near-term debt maturities with the
$500 million senior notes maturing in 2026 and the $650 million
senior notes maturing in 2028.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL & GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

Moody's regards the coronavirus pandemic as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. Whilst the company was significantly affected by
reductions in flight activity at the start of the pandemic in the
second quarter of 2020, it has since seen a substantial recovery
with US flight activity across Signature's network at 80% of prior
year levels in October. The company's recovery was also supported
by significant non-flight revenues including from hangarage, and by
cost reductions, leading to low degrees of cash burn.

Governance of the company following the acquisition will be a key
consideration in the review of the ratings including leverage
targets, dividend policy, and the appetitive for mergers and
acquisitions.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

The $500 million backed senior unsecured notes due 2026 and $650
million backed senior unsecured notes due 2028 are rated Ba3, in
line with the CFR. This reflects their pari passu ranking with the
company's $400 million revolving credit facility and the all senior
unsecured debt structure. However, the notes do not have guarantees
from operating companies and are therefore structurally
subordinated to meaningful operating company level liabilities
including trade payables and operating leases which leaves the
instrument ratings relatively weakly positioned.

WHAT WOULD CHANGE THE RATINGS UP / DOWN

The ratings are unlikely to be upgraded in the short term. The
ratings could be stabilised if the coronavirus pandemic is brought
under control and flight volumes return to more normal levels, with
the company demonstrating an ability to substantially improve its
financial metrics within a 1-2 year time horizon.

The ratings could be upgraded if Moody's expects:

- Moody's-adjusted leverage to reduce sustainably to around 4.5x

- Moody's-adjusted EBITA / interest to increase sustainably above
2.5x.

An upgrade would also require positive organic revenue growth at or
above the market, and for the company to maintain financial
policies consistent with the above metrics.

Moody's could downgrade Signature if:

- There are expectations of deeper and longer declines in flight
volumes extending materially into the second half of 2021

- There is a material weakening in the company's liquidity
position

- Organic revenue growth is materially below market rates

In addition, the ratings could be downgraded if there are clear
expectations that the company will not be able to maintain
financial metrics compatible with a Ba3 rating following the
coronavirus pandemic, in particular if:

- Moody's-adjusted leverage is expected to be sustainably above
5.5x

- Moody's-adjusted EBITA / interest reduces consistently below 2x

- Free cash flow / debt before dividends reduces to low single
digit percentages

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Service Industry published in October 2016.

COMPANY PROFILE

Signature, headquartered in London and with shares listed on the
London Stock Exchange, has around 370 fixed base operator (FBO)
locations with approximately 200 Signature owned FBOs and
approximately 170 EPIC branded but non-owned FBOs providing B&GA
flight support services at airports, with the US being the largest
market followed by Europe. An FBO is a commercial business granted
the right by an airport to operate on the airport and provide
aeronautical services.



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S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills,
Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA.
Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.

Copyright 2021.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2754.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
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