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       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                          E U R O P E

          Tuesday, May 5, 2020, Vol. 21, No. 90

                           Headlines



A Z E R B A I J A N

PASHA BANK: S&P Affirms B+ Issuer Credit Rating, Outlook Stable
SOCAR: Fitch Affirms BB+ LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Negative


F R A N C E

GINKGO PERSONAL 2020-1: Fitch Puts Final BB-sf Class E Note Rating
KAPLA HOLDING: Moody's Cuts CFR to B2, On Review for Downgrade
NOVARTEX: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa3, Outlook Negative
RENAULT SA: Egan-Jones Lowers Senior Unsec. Debt Ratings to BB


G E O R G I A

GEORGIA: Fitch Corrects April 24, 2020 Ratings Release


G E R M A N Y

DOUGLAS GMBH: Bank Debt Trades at 24% Discount
DOUGLAS GMBH: Bank Debt Trades at 35% Discount
GHD GESUNDHEITS: S&P Cuts ICR to B- on Operating Underperformance
HAPAG-LLOYD AG: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable & Affirms B+ LT Rating
RAFFINERIE HEIDE: Moody's Cuts CFR, Outlook Remains Negative

THYSSENKRUPP AG: Egan-Jones Lowers Senior Unsec. Debt Ratings to B


H U N G A R Y

NITROGENMUVEK ZRT: S&P Alters Outlook to Pos. & Affirms 'B-' Rating


I R E L A N D

DRYDEN 74: Moody's Gives B3 Rating to EUR11MM Class F Notes
PERMANENT TSB: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative & Affirms BB- ICR
PROVIDUS CLO IV: S&P Assigns Prelim BB- (sf) Rating on Cl. E Notes
PROVIDUS CLO VI: Fitch Gives 'BB-(EXP)sf' Rating on Class E Notes
SPICERS IRELAND: High Court Appoints Provisional Liquidators



I T A L Y

[*] Fitch Takes Action on 12 Tranches from 3 Italian RMBS Deals
[*] Fitch Takes Rating Actions on 7 Credit-Linked Notes


K A Z A K H S T A N

AMANAT INSURANCE: Fitch Affirms B IFS Rating, Alters Outlook to Neg
BANK RBK: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable & Affirms 'B-/B' ICRs
CENTRAS INSURANCE: Fitch Affirms 'B' IFS Rating, Outlook Now Neg.
FIRST HEARTLAND: S&P Upgrades Long-Term ICR to B, Outlook Stable
KASPI BANK: S&P Affirms 'BB-/B' ICRs, Outlook Stable

KAZAKHMYS INSURANCE: Fitch Affirms BB- IFS Rating, Outlook Now Neg.
SB ALFA-BANK: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable & Affirms 'BB-/B' ICR


L U X E M B O U R G

EUROPEAN OPTICAL: S&P Cuts ICR to 'B-', Outlook Stable
LSF10 XL: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3 & Alters Outlook to Stable
MOTION FINCO: Moody's Rates New EUR500MM Senior Secured Notes 'B1'


N E T H E R L A N D S

BOELS TOPHOLDING: Moody's Affirms B1 CFR, Alters Outlook to Neg.
JUBILEE CLO 2015-XVI: S&P Affirms B- (sf) Rating on Cl. F Notes
[*] Fitch Takes Action on 3 Dutch Non-Conforming Deals


N O R W A Y

NORWEGIAN AIR: Shareholders Back Debt-for-Equity Swap
PGS ASA: Fitch Cuts Rating to CCC on Seismic Services Market Drop


P O L A N D

ALIOR BAN: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative & Affirms 'BB/B' ICR
PARTNERBUD SA: Files Motion for Bankruptcy in Czestochowa Court
POLSKI KONCERN: Egan-Jones Lowers Sr. Unsec. Debt Ratings to BB+


P O R T U G A L

NOVO BANCO: Moody's Affirms B2 Deposit Ratings,  Outlook Stable


R U S S I A

ALFA-BANK: S&P Affirms BB+/B Issuer Credit Ratings, Outlook Stable
BANK URALSIB: S&P Affirms 'B/B' ICRs, Outlook Stable
BORETS INTERNATIONAL: Fitch Cuts LT IDR to 'B+', Outlook Negative
HAMKORBANK JSCB: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable & Affirms B+ Rating
RUSSNEFT PJSC: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa1 & Alters Outlook to Neg.

[*] Moody's Takes Action on Three Russian Banks


S P A I N

DISTRIBUIDORA INTERNACIONAL: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa2, Outlook Neg.
JOYE MEDIA: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, On Review for Downgrade


S W E D E N

QUIMPER AB: Moody's Affirms B2 CFR, Alters Outlook to Negative


T U R K E Y

DOGUS HOLDING: S&P Lowers National Scale Rating to 'TrCCC+'
TURKCELL FINANSMAN: Fitch Affirms Then Withdraws 'B+' LT IDR


U K R A I N E

VF UKRAINE: Fitch Affirms 'B' LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Stable


U N I T E D   K I N G D O M

AMIGO LOANS: S&P Keeps 'B' Long-Term ICR on CreditWatch Negative
BYRON: To Launch Sale Process, Explores Other Options
ELLI INVESTMENT: Fitch Corrects April 24 Ratings Release
GRAINGER PLC: S&P Affirms 'BB+' LT ICR Amid COVID-19 Pandemic
HSS HIRE: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, On Review for Downgrade

PETROFAC LTD: S&P Lowers ICR to 'BB+' on Poor Backlog Visibility
PREZZO: Taps FRP Advisory Amid Coronavirus Crisis
THREE CROSS: Cash Flow Crisis Prompts Administration
[*] S&P Puts 18 Class Ratings from 14 European CLOs on Watch Neg.

                           - - - - -


===================
A Z E R B A I J A N
===================

PASHA BANK: S&P Affirms B+ Issuer Credit Rating, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings took the following rating actions on Azeri
banks:

                                To            From
  Kapital Bank OJSC
   Issuer Credit Rating    BB-/Stable/B    BB-/Positive/B

  PASHA Bank
   Issuer Credit Rating    B+/Stable/B     B+/Stable/B

  Muganbank OJSC
   Issuer Credit Rating    B-/Watch Neg/B  B-/Stable/B

NB: This list does not include all the ratings affected.

S&P said, "We expect lower oil prices will weigh on Azerbaijan's
economic prospects. Risks to growth in the short term could be
further exacerbated by reduced activity due to the COVID-19
pandemic, which could exert significant pressure on the economy,
specifically the trade, retail, and hospitality sectors. We expect
an economic contraction of 6.6% in 2020 and project a rebound with
growth averaging about 2.6% over 2021.

"The ratings on Azerbaijan remain at 'BB+/B' with a stable outlook.
We assume an average Brent oil price of $30 per barrel (/bbl) in
2020, recovering to $50/bbl in 2021. Azerbaijan's strong external
balance sheet will remain a core strength, reinforced by the large
amount of foreign assets accumulated in the sovereign wealth fund,
SOFAZ (about $41.3 billion as of March 31, 2020, compared with the
country's nominal GDP of about $48 billion at year-end 2019). The
full impact of the spread of the coronavirus on the economy remains
unclear and could be worse than we currently assume." The speed of
the recovery will also depend on policy measures to cushion the
blow and limit economic dislocation and support the economy and
households.

Amid the volatile oil price environment, pressure on the manat has
increased. In our view, if oil prices remain low for a prolonged
period, the authorities could allow the exchange rate to adjust to
avoid a similar substantial loss of foreign currency reserves, as
happened in 2015. In such a case, there will be an additional blow
to the banking sector.

S&P said, "We expect growing challenges for domestic banks, which
could constrain their business growth and earnings prospects. We
believe that these challenges, together with remaining external
vulnerabilities, could ultimately have a more negative impact on
the banks' capital buffers than we previously forecast--and in some
cases on their funding stability, as well. Moreover, despite the
rebound of credit activity in 2019, largely in retail, we continue
to consider Azerbaijan's economy to be in a "correction" phase with
a high impact on its banking sector.

"Our base-case scenario assumes that tough economic conditions will
erode the debt-servicing capacity of many corporate, small and
midsize, and individual borrowers. We assume that nonperforming
loans (NPLs) may reach 12%-15% in 2020, compared with about 8%
reported at year-end 2019. The impact on Azeri banks' profitability
from additional provisioning could be deferred over 2020-2021,
which could to some extent lessen immediate reduction of capital
buffers.

"For 2020, we expect that Azeri banks' new lending will slow while
credit costs will likely increase to 4.0% of their average loan
books (versus an average 3.2% over 2015-2019), leaving some banks
with only breakeven financial results." Household and corporate
indebtedness constituted 8.5% and 10.2% of GDP, respectively, at
year-end 2019, which is lower than in some Azerbaijan's peers in
our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment, such as Georgia,
Tunisia, or Greece.

Although the banking system has a relatively high level of core
customer deposits and no high reliance on external funding, steep
manat depreciation over the past few years has led to protracted
currency imbalances between banks' assets and liabilities due to
the increased share of foreign currency (FX) funding to more than
60% of banks' customer funds. S&P still views persisting currency
mismatches as risky, especially in light of the increasing pressure
on the manat from the severe drop in oil prices in the first
quarter of 2020.

S&P said, "Notwithstanding increased economic pressure and
uncertainty, our anchor, the starting point in assigning an issuer
credit rating to a bank, remains at 'b+' for banks operating
predominantly in Azerbaijan. In our view, this already incorporates
inherent risks, such as elevated credit risk, the cyclical economy,
and banks' past relatively aggressive lending practices."

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak. Some
government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak about
midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic
and credit implications. S&P said, "We believe the measures adopted
to contain COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession.
As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and
estimates accordingly."

Kapital Bank OJSC

S&P said, "We revised our outlook on Kapital Bank to stable from
positive because we think the sharp economic downturn and COVID-19
pandemic will likely negatively affect its new business generation,
profitability, and asset quality in 2020, thus limiting the
likelihood of an upgrade. Nevertheless, we expect that the bank
will be able to withstand the current crisis better than its local
and international peers, thanks to sufficient capital and liquidity
buffers as of mid-April 2020.

"The ratings on Kapital Bank remain one notch higher than our 'b+'
anchor for a commercial bank operating in Azerbaijan. We believe
that Kapital Bank's combined capital and risk position is stronger
than that of domestic and some international peers. Although we
expect that the bank's NPLs could increase in 2020-2021 from 5% at
year-end 2019, they will still compare favorably with peers'.

"We expect subdued loan growth in 2020-2021 will likely ease
pressure on capitalization, which we think will remain adequate,
despite no planned capital injections. We expect the bank to
sustain its substantial market share in retail lending and funding
in Azerbaijan as the country's third-largest bank. Our base case is
that the bank will maintain a broadly stable deposit base of retail
and government-related entities, and a high liquidity cushion."

Outlook

S&P said, "The stable outlook on Kapital Bank reflects our
expectation that the bank's adequate capitalization, stable deposit
funding, and ample liquidity will enable it to withstand potential
stresses from macroeconomic contraction and the COVID-19 pandemic
over the next 12 months."

Downside scenario.  S&P said, "Over the same time horizon, a
negative rating action could follow if we see higher pressure on
Kapital Bank's risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio, liquidity, and
asset quality than we envision in our base-case scenario. This
could happen if the effects of COVID-19 and the oil price decline
on the banking system and economy are materially worse than in our
base case."

Upside scenario.   An upgrade or positive outlook is unlikely over
the next 12 months. However, a positive rating action could follow
in the longer term if we view Kapital Bank as a clear outperformer
in 2020 among its domestic and international peers, demonstrated by
more sustained and less volatile performance, higher capital
buffers, and adequate liquidity.

PASHA Bank

S&P said, "We affirmed our rating on PASHA Bank and maintained the
stable outlook because we see PASHA Bank's good earning capacity
enabling it to absorb credit losses stemming from potentially
higher NPLs in the current economic environment. The stable outlook
also reflects our expectation that the bank's sizable market share
and solid franchise in corporate lending will support its business
volumes and revenue over the next 12 months, while its high
liquidity buffer and stable customer deposits will underpin its
credit profile."

The expected recession in Azerbaijan in 2020 because of COVID-19
and the oil price slump will likely lead to deterioration of the
bank's asset quality and higher credit losses this year. S&P said,
"In particular, we expect NPLs will increase to 12%-13% (including
restructured loans) this year from 7.4% at year-end 2019, with the
cost of risk climbing to 3.2% of the loan portfolio. In our view,
the bank's NPLs will gradually decline to below 10% starting from
2021 on the back of economic recovery. Nevertheless, we believe
that PASHA Bank's good earnings power will enable it to absorb
additional credit losses without material pressure on the bank's
capital buffer. In our base-case scenario, we expect that the
bank's RAC ratio will be sustainably above 3% by year-end 2021.

"We think that PASHA Bank will continue demonstrating good business
sustainability over the cycle. We expect that the bank's high
market share in corporate lending in Azerbaijan (about 20% as of
year-end 2019) will prevent a material decline in the bank's
revenue. At the same time, traditionally good operating efficiency
will help the bank remain profitable even in 2020, despite a spike
in credit losses. Although the slower growth of risk-weighted
assets in 2020-2021 will provide some relief for its capital
buffer, potentially high FX translation losses and dividend payout
will continue pressuring the bank's capital position on the
consolidated level.

"We think that the bank's ample liquidity buffer and stable
depositor base support its credit profile. As of year-end 2019,
liquid assets, including cash, interbank deposits, and liquid
investment in securities covered about 54% of customer deposits."

Outlook

The stable outlook on PASHA Bank is based on S&P's expectation that
its solid corporate business franchise in Azerbaijan, large
liquidity buffer, and stable customer deposits will support its
credit profile over the next 12 months.

Downside scenario.  S&P said, "We could lower the rating in the
next 12 months if the bank's capital position continues to
deteriorate and our forecast RAC ratio falls below 3%. This may
happen, for example, if the bank's credit losses increase much
higher than we currently anticipate and the bank receives
significant revaluation losses from negative FX movements. Although
not our base-case scenario, we could also consider a downgrade if
the bank's asset quality declines so that it has significantly more
NPLs than peers' in Azerbaijan."

Upside scenario.   S&P said, "We could consider raising the rating
if PASHA Bank improves its capital sustainability and broadens its
customer diversity. A material improvement in the bank's capital
position on the group level, so that our forecast RAC ratio rises
sustainably above 7%, may also prompt us to upgrade the bank."

Muganbank OJSC

S&P placed its ratings on Muganbank on CreditWatch with negative
implications because it sees an increased risk the bank may breach
the regulatory liquidity ratio. In the worst case, it may be unable
to honor its obligations in full and on time in case of potential,
more intense customer deposit outflows.

In the first quarter of 2020, corporate deposit outflows reduced
Muganbank's deposits by 19% from year-end 2020. This worsened the
bank's regulatory quick liquidity ratio to 40% on March 31, 2020,
from 65% at year-end 2019, approaching the minimum of 30%. However,
on March 13, 2020, the state extended the full guarantee of all
retail deposits (within interest rate limits), which had been set
to expire after being in effect for five years, until Dec. 4, 2020.
As a result, Muganbank's retail deposit outflows until now have
been immaterial. The Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) has
sufficient tools, in S&P's view, to provide a liquidity line in
cases of deposit outflows.

CreditWatch

S&P said, "We could downgrade Muganbank if its liquidity further
deteriorates because of ongoing deposit outflows and the outflows
are not fully and on time compensated by support, either from the
bank's shareholder or the CBA as lender of last resort. We will
monitor the bank's funding and liquidity metrics and compliance
with regulatory requirements. We aim to resolve the CreditWatch
within three months. We could remove the ratings from CreditWatch
if the bank's deposit becomes less volatile and the bank
accumulates a sufficient liquidity buffer, which would enable it to
absorb further potential deposit outflows."

  BICRA Score Snapshot

  Azerbaijan BICRA
  BICRA group                       9
  Implied anchor                   b+
  Economic risk                     9
  Economic resilience          Very high risk
  Economic imbalances            High risk
  Credit risk in the economy   Extremely high risk
  Trend                           Stable
  Industry risk                     9
  Institutional framework      Extremely High Risk
  Competitive dynamics           High risk
  Systemwide funding           Very high risk
  Trend                           Stable
  Government support             Uncertain

Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) economic risk and
industry risk scores are on a scale from 1 (lowest risk) to 10
(highest risk).

  Ratings Score Snapshots

  Kapital Bank OJSC  
                                     To            From
   Issuer Credit Rating        BB-/Stable/B BB-/Positive/B
   SACP                              bb-              bb-
   Anchor                            b+               b+
   Business Position           Adequate (0)      Adequate (0)
   Capital and Earnings        Adequate (+1)     Adequate (+1)
   Risk Position               Adequate (0)      Adequate (0)
   Funding                     Average and       Average and
   and Liquidity               Adequate (0)      Adequate (0)
   Support                           (0)              (0)
   ALAC Support                      (0)              (0)
   GRE Support                       (0)              (0)
   Group Support                     (0)              (0)
   Government Support                (0)              (0)
   Additional Factors                (0)              (0)

   SACP--Stand-alone credit profile.

  PASHA Bank  
   Issuer Credit Rating      B+/Stable/B
   SACP                         b+
   Anchor                       b+
   Business Position        Adequate (0)
   Capital and Earnings      Weak (0)
   Risk Position            Adequate (0)
   Funding                  Average and
   and Liquidity            Adequate (0)
   Support                     (0)
   ALAC Support                (0)
   GRE Support                 (0)
   Group Support               (0)
   Government Support          (0)
   Additional Factors          (0)

   SACP--Stand-alone credit profile.


SOCAR: Fitch Affirms BB+ LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Negative
-----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan
Republic's Outlook to Negative from Stable. Its Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating and senior unsecured rating have been affirmed at
'BB+'.

The rating action reflects a recent similar action on the sovereign
rating of Azerbaijan (BB+/Negative) as SOCAR is fully owned by the
state and their ratings are equalized under Fitch's
Government-Related Entities Rating criteria. This is underpinned by
state support provided to the company in the form of financial
guarantees, cash contributions and equity injections, as well as
SOCAR's social functions and its importance as a state vehicle for
the development of oil and gas projects.

Fitch continues to assess SOCAR's standalone credit profile at 'b+'
but leverage headroom in 2020-2021 is limited due to the slump in
oil prices caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Further sustained
deterioration in SCP may result in the revision of its rating
approach to notching down of SOCAR's IDR from the sovereign's
rating under the GRE criteria, which also supports the Negative
Outlook.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

SCP under Pressure: Its revised rating case forecasts higher
leverage than Fitch previously expected based on lower oil prices
in 2020-2022 and lower upstream production due to Azerbaijan's
OPEC+ commitments. Fitch forecasts SOCAR's FFO net leverage to
remain at or below its downgrade guideline of 6.0x (2020F: 6.1x,
2022F: 5.5x) limiting leverage headroom.

Supportive Business Profile: SOCAR's rating is underpinned by its
business profile of a medium-sized oil company with good reserve
life and profitability. In 2018, SOCAR's net production amounted to
256 thousand barrels of oil equivalents (boe) per day, including
around 60% of liquids and its proved reserve life was comfortable
at 15 years. SOCAR's unit profitability, calculated as funds from
operations to upstream production, was robust at USD23/boe, between
integrated oil majors (e.g. Royal Dutch Shell plc, AA-/Stable,
USD38/boe) and Russian oil producers (e.g. Rosneft Oil Company,
USD12/boe).

Close Links with the State: The rating of SOCAR is equalized with
that of the state given their strong ties resulting in a score of
30 under Fitch's GRE criteria. As the IDR reflects the combination
of the strength of state linkage and SOCAR's SCP, any deterioration
of the SCP on a sustained basis may result in the IDR being notched
down from the sovereigns. Most oil and gas projects in Azerbaijan
operate under production-sharing agreements, in which SOCAR has a
minority stake and where it also represents the state and is
involved in marketing the latter's share of crude oil and gas
(profit oil). In addition, SOCAR has stakes in some other major
energy projects promoted by the state, such as the Southern Gas
Corridor (SGC).

Significant Tax Contributor: Taxes paid by SOCAR accounted for
almost 10% of government revenue in 2018, while income from
marketing of the state's share in profit oil, to be transferred to
the State Oil Fund of the Republic of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), the
national oil fund, accounted for almost 80% of government revenue
(compared with 65% in 2017). The growth resulted from stronger
international oil prices in 2018. The state, in its turn,
guarantees 9% of SOCAR's debt and provides equity injections to
cover cash deficits.

Social Functions: Its assessment of links between the state and
SOCAR is also supported by the latter's social role. One of its key
functions is production and sale of fuel at regulated prices to the
domestic market, which are enough to cover the company's operating
cash costs but are lower than international prices. Also, SOCAR
employs more than 50,000 staff in Azerbaijan. The company does not
pay dividends but it may be required by the state to make cash
contributions to the state budget, government agencies or to
directly fund some social projects.

Performance Controlled by State: The state exercises significant
control over the company's profitability and balance sheet through
regulation of domestic fuel prices, cash injections, government
distributions and other measures. To a large extent, SOCAR's high
leverage is the function of the company's close links with the
state but Fitch believes that the government has incentives to keep
SOCAR adequately funded.

More Emphasis on Historical Performance: Fitch has limited
visibility on possible cash outflows related to SOCAR's large
investments, such as the Absheron field and the company's
downstream projects. Fitch therefore puts more emphasis on
historical performance when assessing SOCAR's credit profile. This
limited visibility is one of the factors constraining the SCP to
the 'b' rating category.

SGC Mostly Completed: The USD40 billion SGC project, which is being
developed in cooperation with BP plc (A/Stable) and other partners,
includes the full-field development of the Shah Deniz 2 gas field
(SD2), the expansion of the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCPX), and the
construction of Trans-Anatolian and Trans Adriatic gas pipelines
(TANAP and TAP) connecting Azerbaijan with Turkey, Italy and some
other countries. The project has largely been completed as SD2,
SCPX and TANAP became operational in 2018 and TAP should come
on-stream by end-2020.

STAR Refinery Fully Ramped-up: Construction of STAR Refinery in
Turkey, SOCAR's largest investment abroad, was completed in
December 2018. The refinery ramped up to full capacity in mid-2019.
The USD6.3 billion project was mainly funded by the USD3.3 billion
project finance debt raised in 2015, split into two tranches with
maturities of 15 and 18 years and with a four-year grace period.
Fitch believes that the project, which is not consolidated on
SOCAR's balance sheet, will require no further major cash input and
that it will repay debt from operating cash flows as a priority
before paying dividends. Fitch does not expect any dividends in
2020-2022.

Volatility from Trading Business: Trading operations add volatility
to SOCAR's performance. In 2019, the company's traded volumes
averaged 1.5 million barrels of oil per day, of which around 70%
were third-party volumes. Trading business could lead to large
working capital fluctuations.

ESG Influence: SOCAR has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Governance
Structure and Financial Transparency. Fitch believes that
decision-making in the company is largely influenced by the state,
and its transparency, financial reporting and disclosures are
limited. This is not untypical for some national oil companies.
This is relevant to the SCP in conjunction with other factors
constraining the SCP to the 'b' category.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Fitch equalizes SOCAR's rating with that of Azerbaijan to reflect
the strong ties. High leverage along with corporate governance
factors are the main constraints on the company's 'b+' SCP. High
leverage is typical for some national oil companies, with SOCAR's
three most relevant peers rated on a top-down or capped basis:
Petroleos Mexicanos (BB/Negative, top-down minus 3) in Mexico, JSC
National Company KazMunayGas (BBB-/Stable, top-down minus 1) in
Kazakhstan, and Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (BB-/Stable, capped) in
Brazil.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - Brent crude price of USD35/bbl in 2020, USD45/bbl in 2021 and
USD53/bbl in 2022

  - SOCAR's upstream production volumes decreasing by 11% in 2020,
recovering to above 2018 levels by 2022

  - USD/AZN exchange rate: 1.7 over 2019-2022

  - Working capital inflow of AZN0.8 billion in 2020, working
capital outflow of AZN0.8 billion in 2021

  - Aggregate capex of AZN12 billion over 2019-2022

  - Net contributions in associates and joint-ventures of AZN0.8
billion over 2019-2022

  - Continued support from the state over 2019-2022

RATING SENSITIVITIES

SOCAR

The rating is on a Negative Outlook, so an upgrade is unlikely in
the short term. However,

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action/Upgrade:

  - Revision of the sovereign Outlook to Stable and improvement in
credit metrics supporting SCP with its FFO net leverage staying
consistently below 6x, which may lead to the Outlook being revised
to Stable

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action/Downgrade:

  - Downgrade of Azerbaijan

  - Negative revision of SOCAR's SCP, which could stem from FFO net
leverage exceeding 6x over an extended period

  - Weakening state support

Azerbaijan

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to
positive rating action/upgrade are:

  - Easing of external pressures stabilizing the public and
external balance sheets, e.g. from higher oil prices

  - Improvement in the macroeconomic policy framework, including
exchange-rate policy, that strengthens the country's ability to
address external shocks and reduces macroeconomic volatility

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to
negative rating action/downgrade:

  - Developments in the economic policy framework that undermine
macroeconomic stability, e.g. rapid erosion of the sovereign's
external balance sheet or disorderly devaluation of the manat
exchange rate

  - Sustained low oil prices or a more prolonged external shock
that would have a significant adverse effect on the economy,
banking sector, public finances or the external position

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.


LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Manageable Liquidity: As of December 31, 2019, SOCAR's liquidity
sources amounted to around AZN7.8 billion, compared with AZN4.6
billion of short-term debt. Liquidity included cash and cash
equivalents of AZN6.8 billion from SOCAR's unaudited 2019
financials and AZN1-billion of undrawn committed lines of credit
mainly related to the modernization project at Heydar Aliyev Oil
Refinery. The bulk of short-term debt was mainly in US dollars and
related to SOCAR's trading arm, Turkish petrochemical subsidiary
Petkim, and the holding company.

Fitch forecasts negative free cash flow over 2020-2021. It also
assumes a cash outflow due to put options of AZN2.7 billion that
could be exercised by Goldman Sachs International in 2H21, under an
agreement of certain asset disposals. However, Fitch would expect
the state to cover any liquidity gaps with equity injections.

No Subordination Issue: A significant part of SOCAR's consolidated
debt (around 50%) is at the level of subsidiaries. Subsidiaries'
debt is comfortably below 2.0x of the group's EBITDA after readily
marketable inventory adjustment on SOCAR Trading's debt, implying
no subordination issues for unsecured creditors at the group.
Consequently, Fitch rates SOCAR's senior unsecured notes at 'BB+'
in line with IDR.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS

SOCAR's rating is equalized with Azerbaijan's sovereign rating.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

SOCAR has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Governance Structure and
Financial Transparency. Except for the matters discussed above, the
highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score of 3.
This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal
credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or to
the way in which they are being managed by the entity(ies).



===========
F R A N C E
===========

GINKGO PERSONAL 2020-1: Fitch Puts Final BB-sf Class E Note Rating
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Ginkgo Personal Loans 2020's notes final
ratings.

Ginkgo Personal Loans 2020-1      

  - Class A FR0013463270; LT AAAsf; New Rating   

  - Class B FR0013463288; LT AA-sf; New Rating   

  - Class C FR0013463312; LT A-sf; New Rating   

  - Class D FR0013463346; LT BBB-sf; New Rating   

  - Class E FR0013463304; LT BB-sf; New Rating   

  - Class F FR0013463338; LT NRsf; New Rating   

  - Class G FR0013463353; LT NRsf; New Rating   

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

Ginkgo Personal Loans 2020-1 is a 27-month revolving securitization
of French unsecured consumer loans originated in France by CA
Consumer Finance (CACF, A+/Negative/F1). The securitized portfolio
consists of general-purpose personal loans advanced to individuals.
All the loans bear a fixed interest rate and are amortizing with
constant monthly instalments.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

High Credit Risk Expected

Fitch analyzed obligor credit risk, notably in the context of the
coronavirus pandemic by forming base-case default expectations
(9.5%) and recovery assumptions (43.4%), stressing these
assumptions according to the rating of each class of notes. The
agency reviewed default and recovery data on the originator's total
personal loan book.

Revolving Period Increases Risk

The transaction will have a maximum 27-month revolving period.
Fitch believes the early amortization triggers envisaged by the
documentation are relatively loose for protecting against asset
deterioration. The principal deficiency ledger (PDL) trigger allows
the structure to have an uncleared PDL of up to 2.75% of the
initial balance. Fitch took this aspect into consideration and
assumed an under collateralization of 2.75% at the beginning of the
amortization period.

Fitch has also analyzed potential pool mix shifts during this
period and modelled a stressed-case portfolio.

Hybrid Pro-Rata Redemption

The transaction has hybrid pro-rata redemption. The transaction
will amortize sequentially until class A reaches its targeted
subordination ratio. The notes will then amortize at their targeted
subordination ratio calculated as a percentage of the performing
and delinquent balance less 1.25% of the initial asset portfolio
balance. If no sequential amortization event occurs and there is no
PDL in debit, all the notes will amortize pro rata.

Servicing Continuity Risk Mitigated

CACF is the transaction servicer. No back-up servicer was appointed
at closing. However, servicing continuity risks are mitigated by,
among other things, a monthly transfer of borrowers' notification
details, a commingling reserve and a reserve fund to cover
liquidity and the management company being responsible for
appointing substitute servicer within 30 calendar days upon the
occurrence of a servicer termination event.

Coronavirus Exposure

The coronavirus pandemic and the related containment measures
resulted in an unprecedented economic contraction and asset
performance across all sectors will be affected. Fitch took the
situation into consideration when determining its asset
assumptions. Fitch believes this structure is resilient to the
near-term disruption.

The ratings reflect the transaction's ability to withstand severe
credit stresses as Fitch incorporated the stresses observed
following the 2008-2009 global financial crisis when determining
its expected case. The class A and B notes have a strong liquidity
position, which should support timely interest payments in the
event of the servicer granting temporary payment relief to
borrowers. The payment interruption risk is mitigated for the class
C/D/E notes when they are the most senior class of notes as they
will benefit from the commingling reserve to cover three months of
senior fees and interest in case a servicer disruption occurs. To
date, the French government has not granted any payment holidays to
all the retail borrowers but has taken measures to support
employment, notably with the partial unemployment scheme and the
EUR1,500 indemnity offered to the self-employed.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

This section provides insight into the model-implied sensitivities
the transaction faces when one assumption is modified, while
holding others equal. The modelling process uses the modification
of these variables to reflect asset performance in up- and down
environments. The results below should only be considered as one
potential outcome, as the transaction is exposed to multiple
dynamic risk factors. It should not be used as an indicator of
possible future performance.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

Expected impact on the note rating of decreased defaults and
increased recoveries (class A/B/C/D/E)

Decrease base case defaults by 25%, increase recovery rate by
25%:'AAAsf'/'AAAsf'/'AA-sf' /'A-sf'/'BBB-sf'

Decrease base case defaults by 50%, increase recovery rate by
50%:'AAAsf'/'AAAsf'/'AAAsf' /'AAsf'/'A-sf'

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

Expected impact on the note rating of increased defaults (class
A/B/C/D/E)

Increase base case defaults by 25%:
'AAsf'/Asf'/'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'/'CCCsf'

Increase base case defaults by 50%:
'A+sf'/'A-sf'/'BB+sf'/'B+sf'/'NRsf'

Expected impact on the note rating of decreased recoveries (class
A/B/C/D/E)

Reduce base case recovery by 25%: 'AA+sf'/'AA-sf'/'BBBsf'/
'BBsf'/'B-sf'/

Reduce base case recovery by 50%:
'AA+sf'/'A+sf'/'Asf'/'BBB-sf'/'BB-sf'/'NRsf'

Expected impact on the note rating of increased defaults and
decreased recoveries (class A/B/C/D/E)

Increase base case defaults by 25%, reduce recovery rate by 25%:
'AA-sf'/'Asf'/'BBB-sf' /'BB-sf'/'NRsf'

Increase base case defaults by 50%, reduce recovery rate by 50%:
'Asf'/'BBBsf'/'BBsf'/'NRsf'/'NRsf'

Coronavirus Downside Scenario Sensitivity (class A/B/C/D/E)

Fitch has added a coronavirus downside sensitivity analysis that
contemplates a more severe and prolonged economic stress caused by
a re-emergence of infections in the major economies, before a slow
recovery begins in 2Q21. In this downside scenario, Fitch assumes a
sharper increase in delinquencies than what was experienced during
the global financial crisis, leading to an increased default base
case to 11% compared with 9.5% applied in the baseline scenario.
The 'AAAsf' default multiple is unchanged at 4x. Under this
downside scenario, the expected impact would be:

'AA+'sf/'A+sf'/'BBBsf'/'BB+sf'/'B-'

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance
transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as
the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
are based on historical performance.

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10

Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.

DATA ADEQUACY

Fitch reviewed the results of a third party assessment conducted on
the asset portfolio information, and concluded that there were no
findings that affected the rating analysis.

Fitch conducted a review of a small targeted sample of CACF's
origination files and found the information contained in the
reviewed files to be adequately consistent with the originator's
policies and practices and the other information provided to the
agency about the asset portfolio.

Overall, Fitch's assessment of the asset pool information relied
upon for the agency's rating analysis according to its applicable
rating methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

KAPLA HOLDING: Moody's Cuts CFR to B2, On Review for Downgrade
--------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Kapla Holding S.A.S.'s
corporate family rating to B2 from B1, its probability of default
to B2-PD from B1-PD and the instrument ratings of its backed senior
secured notes to B2 from B1. In parallel, Moody's has placed all of
Kiloutou's ratings on review for downgrade. The outlook has been
changed to ratings under review from stable.

"Kiloutou's downgrade reflects the rapid and widening spread of the
coronavirus outbreak, which has brought Kiloutou's French
operations, its main market, to an effective halt. This will cause
Kiloutou's revenues and EBITDA to fall sharply in 2020 and lead to
a drain on cash flow and liquidity" said Florent Egonneau,
Assistant Vice President and Moody's lead analyst for Kiloutou."
Although the company started to partially re-open its branches to
professional customers, the recovery phase remains highly
uncertain" added Mr. Egonneau.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented.

The equipment rental sector is one of the sectors affected by the
shock given restrictions on movement in some European countries,
including France, and the temporary halt to activity on
construction sites and other projects. More specifically, Kiloutou
remains vulnerable for as long as the restrictions on movement
persist.

Its action reflects the impact on Kiloutou of the breadth and
severity of the shock, as well as the broad deterioration in
earnings it has triggered for an unknown period of time. Moody's
regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its ESG
framework, given the substantial implications for public health and
safety.

During the lockdown period, Moody's estimates that Kiloutou's
revenues will decline in the range of 80% to 90%. The degree of
business disruption varies widely between countries, with France
(84% of total revenues in 2019) seeing its activity down to 5-10%
of normal levels while Germany and Poland are still at 80-100%. The
company has a high fixed cost structure mainly related to fleet and
personnel, a credit negative even if technical unemployment
measures will partially alleviate the pressure on costs in the
short-term. However, the nature of the coronavirus crisis makes it
very challenging to financially adapt to the level of activity in
such a short time frame, especially in terms of capex. As such,
Kiloutou's capex commitment for 2020 remains relatively high at
EUR130-140 million, compared to the EUR211 million spent in 2019.

Moody's expects Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA will temporarily spike
to 8.0x in 2020 under its base case, which assumes that revenues
will decrease by 30% for the full year as a result of coronavirus,
before returning below 5.0x in 2021. Under this scenario, Moody's
expects Kiloutou's free cash flow to be negative in the range of
EUR50-75 million in 2020 but to turn positive in 2021 as the
company should have time to adjust its capex level to the
recessionary environment. However, Moody's acknowledge the downside
risk linked to a prolonged period of lockdowns and/or recessionary
pressure more severe than currently envisaged.

The review will focus on Kiloutou's ability to preserve its
liquidity as a consequence of the significant earnings decline, and
the resilience of the company's credit metrics following the
disruption of its operations. Moody's will also closely monitor the
recovery in business activity in the next few months.

LIQUIDITY

Moody's considers Kiloutou's liquidity to be adequate. As of March
31, 2020, the company had EUR206 million cash on balance sheet,
which included the proceeds from the full drawdown on its EUR120
million revolving credit facility. Moody's estimates that Kiloutou
has enough liquidity to last eight to ten months if current
lockdown restrictions continue over the longer-term. The company is
currently negotiating a state guaranteed loan of up to EUR155
million or 25% of the revenues that it generated in France in
2019.

The company's RCF documentation contains a springing financial
covenant based on net leverage set at 7.2x and tested on a
quarterly basis only when the RCF is drawn by more than 40%.
Moody's expects Kiloutou to breach this covenant in September 2020,
if not amended or waived.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Given the high uncertainty over the length of the lockdowns,
positive pressure on the rating is unlikely in the near-term but
could occur if: (i) the coronavirus outbreak is resolved quickly
and Kiloutou is able to ramp-up its operations fast enough to limit
the negative impact on EBITDA level and related cash burn; (ii)
Moody's adjusted leverage declines back below 4.5x on a sustainable
basis; and (iii) it generates consistent, positive FCF while
maintaining good liquidity.

Negative pressure on the rating could occur if: (i) the company's
operational performance continues to deteriorate as a result of
prolonged lockdowns or a weaker macroeconomic environment,
particularly in France; (ii) Moody's adjusted leverage remains
above 5.5x in the next 12-18 months; and (iii) free cash flow
generation deteriorates or becomes negative leading to weaker
liquidity.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Equipment and
Transportation Rental Industry published in April 2017.

COMPANY PROFILE

Founded by Franky Mulliez in 1981, Kiloutou is the number two
player in the French equipment rental market and the number three
in Europe. The company serves more than 300,000 customers through a
network of 532 branches across five countries. Kiloutou has a focus
on tools and light equipment, construction equipment, access
equipment and services. In 2019, the company generated EUR737
million of revenues and EUR244 million of EBITDA.

NOVARTEX: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa3, Outlook Negative
----------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the ratings of French
apparel retailer Novartex S.A.S., including its corporate family
rating to Caa3 from Caa1 and its probability of default rating to
Caa3-PD from Caa1-PD. The company's outlook remains negative.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Its action follows Novartex' announcement that its core operating
subsidiary, La Halle, has entered into a safeguard procedure under
French law. The other subsidiaries of the group and its remaining
banners, Caroll and Minelli, were excluded from this safeguard
procedure. The purpose of the safeguard is to protect the group's
balance sheet during the store lockdown imposed by the French
government to counter the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.

All liability payments will be frozen at La Halle during the
safeguard procedure. Novartex and its subsidiaries, including La
Halle, have no financial debt following the full debt equitization
completed at the end of 2019, but La Halle does have outstanding
creditor payments for rents, social charges, taxes and amounts due
to suppliers.

The Caa3 CFR reflects the current stressed financial situation of
Novartex and the increased likelihood that creditors will not
receive full amounts due. Moody's also believes that the company's
remaining banners may also come under financial pressures because
of the lockdowns in France. Despite the opening of a safeguard
procedure, the company's will continue to burn cash because the
remaining banners, Caroll and Minelli, are not part of the
safeguard and shall continue to pay their creditor obligations.
Also, the company's decision to place its main banner into
safeguard creates some reputational risks, which can result into
accelerated payment requests by obligors of the remaining brands,
Caroll and Minelli. Moody's believes this could ultimately create
further liquidity stress on Novartex and lead to an insolvency for
the whole group.

The company estimates that its cash balance was around EUR80
million as at end-March 2020, compared to EUR134 million as at
end-October 2019. The company's significant cash burn is mainly due
to La Halle, which represented around 70% of the group's revenues
in fiscal 2019. This vulnerability reflects La Halle's large store
network and high fixed cost structure together with the absence of
sales currently.

Moody's believes that EUR80 million of cash should be sufficient to
run the operations and withstand the store closures at the level of
Caroll and Minelli for a couple of months. However, there is still
material uncertainty on the length of the store lockdown in France
and other countries where the group operates. Moody's also expects
that there is likely to be fierce competition and pricing pressure
once stores reopen and potentially weaker demand for discretionary
products, notably apparel products, in the medium-term.

Its action also incorporates social risk considerations for
Novartex. Firstly, Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a
social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial
implications for public health and safety. Second, the safeguard
procedure will likely result into another restructuring program, to
contain the company's cost base. This could translate into store
closures or collective layoff, and hence potentially result in
tensions with employee unions, as seen in the past. As at
end-August 2019, La Halle had 860 stores in France and employed
over 6,000 workers.

RATIONALE FOR NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty surrounding current
lockdown and confinement measures initiated by various governments
and the impact this will have for the company's losses, demand and
supply chain. There is also uncertainty regarding future demand and
consumer sentiment and the fact that these may not recover to
levels prior to the crisis.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The ratings are unlikely to be upgraded in the short term given its
rating action.

Over time, Moody's could consider an upgrade of the ratings if the
company manages to turnaround its business operations. Positive
rating pressure would require signs of gradual recovery in net
sales growth, profitability improving sustainably with Moody's
adjusted EBIT margin in the mid-single digit (in percentage terms),
positive free cash flow generation, and the maintenance of an
adequate liquidity profile.

The ratings could come under downwards pressure if free cash flow
deteriorates such that Moody's expects the company to have
insufficient liquidity to meet its basic cash needs and creditor
payments.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Retail Industry
published in May 2018.

COMPANY PROFILE

Novartex S.A.S. is the holding company of Vivarte, a France-based
footwear and apparel retailer focusing on city centre boutiques and
out-of-town stores through its 3 remaining banners (La Halle,
Minelli and Caroll) and around 1,500 stores. In the fiscal year
ended 31 August 2019 (fiscal 2019), the company generated revenue
of EUR1.2 billion and reported EBITDA of EUR40.4 million. The
company offers a range of apparel and footwear products, mostly
ready-to-wear products for women (around 75% of revenue) and, to a
lesser extent, apparel products for men and children (around 25% of
revenue).

RENAULT SA: Egan-Jones Lowers Senior Unsec. Debt Ratings to BB
--------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company, on April 20, 2020, downgraded the
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by Renault SA to BB from BB+.

Headquartered in Boulogne-Billancourt, France, Renault SA designs,
manufactures, markets, and repairs passenger cars and light
commercial vehicles.




=============
G E O R G I A
=============

GEORGIA: Fitch Corrects April 24, 2020 Ratings Release
------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings replaced a ratings release published on April 24,
2020 to correct the name of the obligor for the bonds.

Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Georgia Long-Term
Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to Negative from Stable and
affirmed the IDR at 'BB'.

Under EU credit rating agency regulation, the publication of
sovereign reviews is subject to restrictions and must take place
according to a published schedule, except where it is necessary for
CRAs to deviate from this in order to comply with their legal
obligations. Fitch interprets this provision as allowing us to
publish a rating review in situations where there is a material
change in the creditworthiness of the issuer that Fitch believes
makes it inappropriate for us to wait until the next scheduled
review date to update the rating or Outlook/Watch status. The next
scheduled review date for Fitch's sovereign rating on Georgia will
be 14 August 2020, but Fitch believes that developments in the
country warrant such a deviation from the calendar.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The revision of the Outlook reflects the following key rating
drivers and their relative weights:

HIGH

The Outlook revision reflects the evolving impact of the COVID-19
pandemic on Georgia. This significant shock will lead to a sharp
contraction of Georgia's small and open economy with a high
dependence on tourism, deterioration in fiscal accounts including
markedly higher public debt and increased risk stemming from
Georgia's higher external debt and wider structural current account
deficit relative to the median of its 'BB' category peers.

Real GDP growth is forecast to contract by 4.8% in 2020 (a
significant downward revision of 9.2pp from its last review in
February 2020). Services and industries related to the tourism
sector will be hardest hit. The direct contribution from tourism to
GDP and employment is around 11.6% and 10.9%, respectively,
according to the World Travel Tourism Council. A national lockdown,
in place since 21 March, will accentuate the impact on domestic
demand.

Fitch projects that GDP growth partially recovers in 2021, to 4.3%,
supported by a rebound in external demand, revival of private
consumption, employment growth, and a recovery in investment.
However, there are material downside risks to its forecasts given
the uncertainty around the extent and duration of the coronavirus
outbreak. If a second wave of infections materializes and lockdown
measures have to be re-introduced, this would exacerbate negative
spillovers to the Georgia's labour market, banking sector and
public finances and cause material negative adjustment to its
forecasts.

Fitch forecasts that the general government deficit will rise to
8.6% of GDP in 2020, from a deficit of 2.0% in 2019, reflecting the
government's fiscal support measures, automatic stabilizers and the
impact on revenue of the contraction in the economy. Georgia's
announced fiscal package in response to COVID-19 amounted to GEL2
billion (approx. 4.0% of GDP) as of 23 April 2020. This includes
grants to businesses, higher social expenditure and subsidies,
acceleration in VAT refunds, and higher capital spending, including
additional funds for healthcare sector. Fitch expects that
Georgia's fiscal deficit should narrow towards 5.0% of GDP in 2021
due to the fading of one-off expenditure and recovery in economic
growth.

General government debt is projected to increase significantly,
from 39.8% at end-2019 to 59.4% of GDP in 2020, before declining
moderately to 56.3% in 2021; an upward revision of 19.3pp and
18.6pp, respectively, since its February review; and above its
latest projected median debt ratio (51.0%) of 'BB' category peers.
Georgia's high share of foreign-currency denominated debt (77.7%,
2019) gives rise to exchange rate risk. Fitch considers that
increased fiscal risks are partly mitigated by Georgia's
demonstrated fiscal consolidation, underpinned by the IMF Extended
Fund Facility (EFF), and a high share of multilateral debt (73% of
total debt, 2019), low interest costs and long maturities.

MEDIUM

The COVID-19 shock has increased vulnerabilities to Georgia's
external finances. Deteriorating external demand, a halt on inward
tourism, and lower inflows of remittances, are forecast by Fitch to
more than double Georgia's current account deficit (CAD) to GDP
from 5.1% in 2019 to 11.6% in 2020; significantly higher than the
projected 4.6% median CAD of 'BB' rated category peers. Fitch
expects external financing need to be met by concessional official
borrowing, which will also help preserve external buffers and CXP
coverage. Net external debt to GDP will increase to 68.3% in 2020
from 60.3% in 2019, well above the projected 23.7% median ratio of
'BB' category peers.

Georgia's IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers:

A consistent and credible policy framework has underpinned
Georgia's resilience to previous shocks and will preserve
macroeconomic stability and mitigate balance of payments risks. The
National Bank of Georgia (NBG) has acted decisively in its response
to the COVID-19 crisis, to preserve financial stability through
macroprudential measures, and limited intervention in the foreign
exchange (FX) market to smooth exchange rate volatility. In March,
the NBG conducted three FX auctions, selling a total of USD110
million to the market in response to heightened inflation
expectations as the USD/GEL exchange rate depreciated close to 25%
from end February (2.79) to its March peak (3.48). The USD/GEL
exchange rate has since stabilized at around 3.15.

Georgia has a track record of cooperation and strong support from
official creditors, which supports policy credibility, continued
reform momentum and reduce financing risks. This strong
relationship has helped the government quickly secure official
financing to meet its increased needs (estimated at 14.4% of GDP in
2020), as well as supporting government plans to increase fiscal
buffers that would allow for additional policy space if downside
risks materialize. Its 2020 government debt forecast includes the
accumulation of an additional 6.0% of GDP in government deposits.

The severity of the economic recession in 2020 and a high share of
foreign currency loans (55% of sector loans, end 2019), will likely
result in a deterioration of banks' asset quality, earnings and
capitalization, with downside risks in the event of a deeper and
longer economic downturn. Support measures from the NBG (which
includes postponing additional Pillar 2 capital buffers and
allowing banks to utilize their capital conservation buffer
(reduced to 0% from 2.5%), will help cover foreign-currency risk,
reduce pressure on borrowers and lower the risk for regulatory
breaches by banks in the short-term. The impact of the COVID-19
shock led Fitch to revise the outlook on the Georgian banking
sector to negative from stable on 25 March 2020.

Political uncertainty remains high in the run-up to October's
parliamentary elections. A recent memorandum of understanding
between the ruling Georgian Dream party and opposition parties
concerning changes to the electoral system has eased political
tensions to some degree. However, these proposals are yet to go
through parliament, with the risk that the current COVID-19 shock
could delay its vote. Meanwhile, relations with Russia remain
fragile, associated with the Russia-occupied territories of
Autonomous Republic of Abkhazia and Tskhinvali Region.

Georgia's structural features are more favorable than 'BB' category
peers; with both governance and ease of doing business indicators
outperforming the median percentile of its peers. The recent
extension of the IMF EFF program until April 2021 underscores the
authorities' commitment towards maintaining policy credibility and
structural reform, even against the backdrop of an electoral
cycle.

ESG - Governance: Georgia has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for both
Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law,
Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption, as
is the case for all sovereigns. Theses scores reflect the high
weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators have in its
proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Georgia has a medium WBGI
ranking at 64.0, reflecting a moderate institutional capacity,
established rule of law, a moderate level of corruption and
political risks associated with the unresolved conflict with
Russia.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Georgia a score equivalent to a
rating of 'BB' on the LTFC IDR scale.

Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM
to arrive at the final LTFC IDR by applying its QO, relative to
rated peers, as follows:

  - External finances: -1 notch, to reflect that relative to its
peer group, Georgia has higher net external debt, structurally
larger CADs, and a large negative net international investment
position.

The addition of +1 notch under "Macroeconomic policy and
performance" since the previous review reflects Georgia's policy
framework strength and consistency, including a credible monetary
and exchange rate policy, prudent fiscal strategy and strong record
of compliance with IMF's quantitative performance criteria and
structural benchmarks. This policy mix has delivered a track record
of resilience to external shocks, including negative developments
in its main trading partners, and reduced risks to macroeconomic
stability.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

  - Fiscal consolidation post-coronavirus crisis that is consistent
with a medium-term reduction in general government debt and
improvements in debt composition.

  - A significant reduction in external vulnerability, stemming
from decreasing external indebtedness and rising external buffers.

  - Stronger GDP growth prospects leading to higher GDP per capita
level, consistent with preserving macro stability.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

  - Deterioration in the projected medium-term outlook for public
finances, for example due to the absence of fiscal consolidation
and/or deterioration in growth prospects.

  - An increase in external vulnerability, for example a sustained
widening of the CAD and rapid decline in international reserves.

  - Deterioration in either the domestic or regional political
environment that affects economic policy-making, economic growth
and/or political stability.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Public Finance issuers have a
best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile
of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three
notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating
downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a negative direction) of three notches
over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case
scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA'
to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on
historical performance.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch expects the global economy to go through a deep but
short-lived recession in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In
particular, eurozone GDP is expected to fall by 7.0% in 2020,
followed by 4.3% growth in 2021 (Fitch Global Economic Outlook, 22
April 2020). Fitch notes that there is an unusually high level of
uncertainty around these forecasts and that risks are firmly to the
downside.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Georgia has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Political Stability and
Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight
in Fitch's SRM and are highly relevant to the rating and a key
rating driver with a high weight.

Georgia has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Rule of Law,
Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as
World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's
SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key
rating driver with a high weight.

Georgia has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms as strong social stability and voice and
accountability are reflected in the World Bank Governance
Indicators that have the highest weight in the SRM. They are
relevant to the rating and a rating driver.

Georgia has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and
is a rating driver for Georgia, as for all sovereigns.



=============
G E R M A N Y
=============

DOUGLAS GMBH: Bank Debt Trades at 24% Discount
----------------------------------------------
Participations in a syndicated loan under which Douglas GmbH is a
borrower were trading in the secondary market around 76
cents-on-the-dollar during the week ended Fri., April 24, 2020,
according to Bloomberg's Evaluated Pricing service data.

The EUR130 million term loan is scheduled to mature on August 13,
2022.  As of April 24, 2020, the full amount has been drawn and is
outstanding.

The Company's country of domicile is Germany.

DOUGLAS GMBH: Bank Debt Trades at 35% Discount
----------------------------------------------
Participations in a syndicated loan under which Douglas GmbH is a
borrower were trading in the secondary market around 65
cents-on-the-dollar during the week ended Fri., April 24, 2020,
according to Bloomberg's Evaluated Pricing service data.

The EUR194 million term loan is scheduled to mature on August 13,
2022.  As of April 24, 2020, the full amount has been drawn and is
outstanding.

The Company's country of domicile is Germany.

GHD GESUNDHEITS: S&P Cuts ICR to B- on Operating Underperformance
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit ratings on
Germany-based health care company GHD GesundHeits GmbH Deutschland
to 'B-' from 'B'. The recovery rating on the company's senior
secured debt remains at '4'.

The downgrade follows GHD's disappointing results for 2019 and what
S&P Global Ratings views as a continuously challenging operating
environment.  S&P said, "It also reflects a downward revision of
our sales growth forecast at 0.5%-1.5% over the next two years,
versus 1.5%-3.0% previously, with flat EBITDA margins of about 10%.
As a result, we expect the group's FOCF will remain modest at less
than EUR5 million and adjusted debt to EBTIDA will remain above 6x
(excluding the shareholder loan) over the next two years."

The group's operating performance in 2019 was disappointing.  Stiff
regional- and therapy-specific pressure from competitors in ostomy
and parenteral nutrition led to sales growth below expectations.
Higher prices after the ban on tenders leads to a situation where
smaller competitors can remain active in the market and competition
remains intense. Furthermore, GHD's performance was undermined by
fluctuations and shortages of staff that led to lower efficiency
levels and the incapacity to exploit market demand and
opportunities. The German government push for increasing quality of
services led to higher demand for qualified nurses and staff,
which, coupled with higher compensation levels, led to higher staff
turnover. As a result, sales in 2019 remained flat versus 2018 at
EUR574 million as the positive contributions of Wholesale (EUR8
million) and For Life (EUR5.9 million) were fully offset by the
negative impact from other business lines. The lack of revenue
growth ultimately translated to lower-than-expected EBITDA as the
company was unable to sufficiently cut expenses in its efforts to
retain personnel, with EBITDA in 2019 coming in at EUR57 million
versus EUR60 million in 2018.

The company's FOCF was undermined in 2019.   Inventory levels
increased as a result of more aggressive negotiations with
suppliers in the wholesale and distribution channel and ramp-up
inefficiencies in management of collections due to site
consolidations, leading to a spike in trade receivables. Overall,
the group's FOCF was negative in 2019.

The new management team has put in place strategic measures to
refocus the business toward margin accretive business lines.   The
company appointed a new CEO on April 1, 2020, as part of the
group's succession in light of poor operating performance. A key
strategic measure is to increase the group's presence in parenteral
nutrition and other core homecare therapy areas. Furthermore, the
group aims to improve its FOCF capabilities though the
implementation of working capital efficiency measures such as the
centralization of reimbursement sites and inventory optimization.
S&P said, "Although we consider that these measures will be
beneficial for the group's future performance, the timing and
effectiveness remain uncertain at this stage. Finally, we expect
the group to collect EUR18 million in proceeds from the disposal of
Profusio by the end of the year."

S&P said, "Our revised forecasts incorporate softer-than-expected
revenue growth and stable EBITDA margins at about 10%.   GHD's
operating environment is increasingly competitive. Lower revenue
should translate into higher adjusted leverage above 12x over the
next two years because of flat EBITDA growth and the full draw of
the group's EUR80 million revolving credit facility (RCF), adding
to EUR360 million outstanding under the term loan B and about
EUR220 million under a shareholder loan. We do not deduct cash from
our leverage calculation.

"We do not expect the group to be drastically affected by the
COVID-19 crisis.   The German governments considers homecare
services as a critical service as they help alleviate the amount of
people attending hospitals, thus reducing pressure on the German
healthcare system. In our view, GHD's cash profile should benefit
as the inventory buildup generated last year should gradually
decrease in response to rising demand.

"We see as GHD's main weaknesses its relatively small size, focus
on Germany, and exposure to regulatory changes.  GHD manufactures,
purchases, and distributes health care products for stoma,
incontinence, and wound care to health care professionals,
institutions, and to patient-at-home care, accompanied by ancillary
services. We view the market as challenging due to continuing
pricing pressure and inherent working capital intensity.

"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that GHD will post
some EBITDA growth despite the challenging operating environment,
such that its adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio will remain above 6x
(excluding the shareholder loan). Furthermore, we believe that the
company's working capital efficiency measures will allow GHD to
improve its liquidity position and generate slightly positive FOCF
in 2020 of less than EUR5 million. We do not foresee short-term
liquidity issues as the company has fully drawn its RCF. We don't
expect refinancing risks either, given the group's successful
capital structure refinancing in 2019.

"Any downside would be primarily linked to a liquidity shortage or
a covenant breach. We could also lower the ratings if GHD's
performance deviated materially from our base case such that we
deemed the capital structure to be unsustainable.

"We could raise the rating if GHD posted operating performance
above our expectations with adjusted debt to EBITDA approaching 5x
(excluding the shareholder loan) and supported by positive FOCF of
at least EUR10 million per year, translating into an improved cash
position and liquidity. This would require in our view an
improvement of market conditions and successful implementation of
working capital efficiency measures."


HAPAG-LLOYD AG: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable & Affirms B+ LT Rating
-------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings took the following actions on four European
container shipping companies.

-- S&P is revising its outlook on A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S
(Maersk) to negative from stable and affirming its 'BBB' long-term
rating on the company and its senior unsecured debt.

-- S&P is also revising to stable from positive its outlook on
Hapag-Lloyd AG, while affirming its 'B+ long-term rating on the
company and our 'B-' rating on its senior unsecured debt.

-- In addition, S&P is affirming its 'B+' long-term ratings on CMA
CGM S.A. and its core entity CEVA Logistics AG (and related
entities), as well as its 'B-' rating on the unsecured debt issued
by CMA CGM and our 'B+' issue rating on the secured debt issued by
CEVA Logistics Finance B.V. The outlooks on all entities remain
negative.

S&P said, "The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic will likely
be more severe than we previously anticipated.  We have again
lowered our macroeconomic forecasts. We now expect global GDP to
fall 2.4% in 2020, with the U.S. and eurozone contracting by 5.2%
and 7.3% respectively. We expect global economic growth to rebound
to 5.9% in 2021. Economic activity is unlikely to stabilize by the
end of the second quarter, but we expect the recovery will kick
into gear during the second half of the year. Depressed consumer
demand, disrupted supply chains, and recessionary trends will
hamper the container shipping industry at least this year. We
forecast that global trade volumes will plunge by up to 15% in 2020
compared with 2019, and that this will be only partly offset by
blank sailings (a measure implemented by container liners to reduce
running capacity) and a lower bunker price. Consequently, we expect
that lower revenues and cash flows will result in weaker credit
metrics for European container liners we rate in 2020 than we
forecast before the COVID-19 pandemic.

"Furthermore, we believe risks for the shipping industry are
mounting.   There is significant uncertainty regarding the pandemic
and its impact on global trade; therefore, we may revise our
assumptions and projections in the near term." At the moment, S&P's
base-case scenario for the industry factors in these assumptions:

-- Global trade volume declines of up to 15% versus 2019 as
consumer demand shrinks worldwide and supply chains and cargo
distribution to inland destinations face disruptions for at least
the next several months. S&P thinks that actual transported volumes
for individual container liners will vary somewhat depending on
their market positions, network coverage, and commercial
strategies.

-- Average freight rate declines of 4%-5%, mainly triggered by
lower bunker prices. Although S&P believes the industry has acted
rationally by adapting capacities and pricing to falling trade
volumes in recent months, there remains a risk that some container
liners will allow lower yields to fill containers if sluggish
demand continues.

-- A bunker fuel price linked to S&P Global Ratings' oil price
deck. S&P said, "We forecast a significant drop in crude oil prices
to $30 per barrel (/bbl) in 2020 from the 2019 average price of
$64/bbl, followed by a rebound to $50/bbl in 2021. As such, we
expect container liners' bunker bills to be much lower than in
2019, also because of reduced transported volumes and continued
optimization efforts to reduce fuel consumption. According to
Clarkson Research, the March-April average price of IMO-2020
compliant very low sulfur fuel was around $240 per tonne, compared
with $515-$585 per tonne quoted in January 2020 and the 2019
average of around $350 per tonne for heavy sulfur fuel (largely
used before the IMO 2020 low sulfur regulation took effect). We
assume container liners will return the bunker cost decrease to
customers via lower freight rates on fixed contracts, including
bunker adjustment factors, which typically account for 40%-50% of
total shipped volumes. However, we think they will seek to retain
part of this benefit on spot contracts. We note that rated
container liners have reported smooth implementation of their IMO
2020 strategies, both in terms of cost-reduction initiatives and
fuel price recovery so far this year."

-- S&P said, "An EBITDA decline of 15%-20% in 2020 compared with
that in 2019 and our previous forecast. The actual decline will
depend on the flexibility of the companies' cost bases and their
ability to retain the benefit of lower bunker fuel cost. We
understand that up to 70% of total costs could be variable under
the harshest cost-cutting measures. The highest costs are typically
the 100% variable terminal handling charges, as well as inland
container transport and logistics expenses, which represent 50%-55%
of operating costs. This is because they are related to container
moves. The next largest expenses are semi-variable bunker fuel
costs (15%-20% of operating costs) because void/blank sailing
combined with slow-steaming initiatives significantly reduce fuel
consumption."

-- A significant reduction or deferral of capital expenditure
(capex).

-- Suspension of dividends and share buybacks beyond those already
proposed or approved.

The timing of a recovery is highly uncertain.  S&P said, "We
currently assume that the first quarter of 2020 will be adversely
affected, particularly due to weak performance in March. The second
quarter will likely be the toughest for shipping companies
experiencing a sharp drop in demand. We assume that the third
quarter (normally including a seasonal peak) will see a slow
recovery of trade volumes, and that trade volumes may gradually
return to normal in the fourth quarter. The recovery could be
delayed however, particularly if the economic recession drags on,
further pressuring companies' credit metrics. We note that China,
one of the largest seaborne exporters and importers in the world,
is progressively restarting its economy but could face sporadic
setbacks. Industrial sector operating capacity is around 90% of
normal levels as workers increasingly return to work and calls at
maritime port come back to normal levels. The service sector is
opening slowly, hampered by social distancing rules still in place.
Policy stimulus has been building and should provide a tailwind for
ongoing recovery through the second half of 2020. But, even if
shipments from China start ramping up, consumption elsewhere in the
world is dwindling. What's more, ships clearing China are finding
it difficult to be unloaded efficiently in their end markets. We
believe that Europe is now approaching the peak of the pandemic,
the U.S. is now the epicenter, and much of the global COVID-19
story is yet to unfold in emerging markets, with cases increasing
in Latin America, South East Asia, and Africa."

S&P said, "We expect a positive stimulus from the industry's
capacity to partly offset sluggish demand.   In our view,
containership supply growth will be muted this year, which is
particularly important in times of weak demand. With no incentive
to place new large orders amid subdued contracting activity since
late 2015, the containership order book is at a historical low:
currently only 10% of the total global fleet. Combined with funding
constraints, more stringent regulation to cut sulfur emissions (to
0.5% as of January 2020), and coronavirus-related disruptions (such
as delays in new-build ship deliveries, ship maintenance and repair
works, and scrubber retrofits owing to staff absences and
equipment/spare parts shortages in Chinese yards), this translates
into tighter supply conditions that favor ocean carriers. Higher
utilization rates because of lower capacity would normally prop up
freight rates. We note that the coronavirus outbreak was followed
by a quick withdrawal of sailings from China, in addition to the
large number of blank sailings during the winter slack season. We
see this as a sign of reactive capacity management by container
liners, which we would typically expect from an industry that has
been through several rounds of consolidation in recent years."
Notably, the five largest container shipping companies together
have a market share of about 65%, up from 30% around 15 years ago.

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak.   S&P
said, "Some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak
about midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the
economic and credit implications. We believe the measures adopted
to contain COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession.
As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and
estimates accordingly."

A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S

Maersk's credit metrics will be under considerable pressure in 2020
amid the increasingly challenging industry conditions.  
Furthermore, a path to recovery for Maersk, the world's largest
container liner with an 18% global market share of capacity,
depends on the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic and its ultimate
impact on the global economy and trade volumes. S&P said, "We
anticipate Maersk's transported trade volumes will decline by
10%-15% in 2020, consistent with our expectation of global trade
volumes falling by up to 15%. The revenue shortfall and fixed
operating costs (accounting for up to 40% of Maersk's cost base),
partly offset by lower bunker fuel prices, will compress earnings.
We estimate that adjusted EBITDA (including recurring dividends
from equity investments) will drop to $5.0 billion-$5.2 billion in
2020 from $6.0 billion in 2019, which is significantly below our
previous base-case of about $6 billion."

S&P said, "We expect Maersk will counterbalance its shrinking
EBITDA with strict working capital management and capex cuts.
Maersk will reduce capex to $3 billion-$4 billion in total in 2020
and 2021, from $2 billion in 2019 and $3.2 billion in 2018, to
generate ample free operating cash flow. In our view, Maersk's
well-invested asset base allows for such a reduced level of capex.
In addition, we believe the group will carry on with its
disciplined and flexible shareholder returns, most importantly,
continuing the link between share buybacks and free operating cash
flow. Moreover, we expect it can allocate excess cash flows to
reduce net debt, and thereby temper erosion of its credit measures.
We forecast adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt will
decline to 30%-35% in 2020 from 36% in 2019 versus our rating
threshold of at least 40%. Although we envisage Maersk's financial
performance improving in 2021 as global trade volumes recover and
net debt reduces, with adjusted FFO to debt exceeding 40%, low
visibility means our forecasts are subject to increasing risks."

Maersk's liquidity remains exceptional despite expected reduced
cash flow generation.   S&P said, "We anticipate that the group
will generate solid available cash flows in 2020, assuming a
substantial capex cut and no further share buybacks beyond the $750
million expected in 2020. We believe that Maersk has ample
liquidity headroom to accommodate the acquisition of U.S.-based
Performance Team, which has an enterprise value of $545 million
(including IFRS 16 lease liabilities of around $225 million). We
expect liquidity sources to exceed uses by around 3.0x in both 2020
and 2021. Maersk's available cash and bank balances totaled about
$3.9 billion (net of $0.9 billion of restricted cash) as of Dec.
31, 2019, and credit lines maturing beyond 12 months amounted to
$6.25 billion (including a new $5 billion revolving credit facility
due 2025), resulting in total liquidity of more than $10 billion.
The group has no maintenance financial covenants in its outstanding
debt."

Outlook

S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects our view that Maersk's
financial metrics will be under considerable pressure in the next
few quarters in the difficult environment induced by COVID-19,
which we think may undermine consumer confidence, delay purchase
decisions, and reduce trade volumes."

Downside scenario:   S&P would lower the rating if:

-- Demand does not recover in the second half of 2020 and
offsetting measures by Maersk and the industry are insufficient to
restore credit metrics, for example with adjusted FFO to debt
staying below 40%; or

-- Once demand conditions have rebounded, Maersk prioritizes
shareholder distributions ahead of deleveraging, preventing a quick
recovery of adjusted FFO to debt to a rating-commensurate level.

Upside scenario:   S&P said, "To revise the outlook to stable, we
would need to be confident that demand conditions are normalizing
and the recovery is robust enough to enable Maersk to restore its
financial strength, such as adjusted FFO to debt to above 40%. We
would expect this to be further underpinned by conservative capital
spending and prudent shareholder returns."

Hapag-Lloyd AG

S&P said, "Reduced demand due to COVID-19 have led us to revise our
base case for Hapag-Lloyd, the fifth largest container liner in the
world by capacity.   We project S&P Global Ratings-adjusted FFO to
debt to fall to 17%-18% over the next 12 months, which is below the
20% threshold for an upgrade and the 20%-23% range we previously
anticipated. As a result, we now regard Hapag-Lloyd's financial
risk profile as aggressive rather than significant, and our
comparable ratings analysis results in a neutral instead of
negative modifier. We expect Hapag-Lloyd's transported trade
volumes will decline by 10%-15% in 2020, consistent with our
forecast of up to a 15% drop in global container demand. We expect
Hapag-Lloyd's earnings to weaken because expected benefits from its
variable cost base (60%-65% of total costs) and lower bunker prices
will only partly offset the revenue losses we anticipate. We
estimate S&P Global Ratings-adjusted (post IFRS16) EBITDA will drop
to EUR1.5 billion-EUR1.6 billion in 2020 from about EUR2.0 billion
in 2019 and our previous base-case of about EUR1.9 billion. In our
revised base case, operating cash flows in 2020 will likely be
lower than we previously expected but still exceed the proposed
dividend of about EUR200 million and the company's low capex
requirements, which we forecast at about EUR300 million annually.
This is because of the group's well-invested and competitive asset
base and no new ships on order. In our view, Hapag-Lloyd's capacity
to generate discretionary cash flows provides some financial leeway
under the current rating if the COVID-19 pandemic or economic
recession drags on.

"We continue to assess Hapag-Lloyd's liquidity as adequate despite
expected reduced cash flow generation.   That said, we anticipate
the company will generate sufficient operating cash flows (after
cash interest cost) this year to cover capex and dividends, as well
as short-term lease obligations of EUR482 million. We expect
liquidity sources to exceed uses by about 1.4x (or 1.7x excluding
dividends) in 2020 and about 1.7x in 2021. As of Dec. 31, 2019,
Hapag-Lloyd's accessible cash and cash equivalents totaled about
EUR200 million (excluding a $350 million minimum cash requirement
under a bank covenant) and availability under its credit lines
maturing beyond 24 months was about EUR520 million. This was
complemented by about EUR290 million of availability under its
securitization program (due December 2022) and a committed sale and
lease-back transaction of EUR80 million, resulting in total
liquidity of more than EUR1.1 billion (excluding $350 million
minimum covenant cash requirement). This compares with short-term
bank debt of EUR759 million as of Dec. 31, 2019. The company has no
leverage or interest-coverage covenants attached to its outstanding
debt, and it met minimum equity and loan-to-value covenants as of
March 31, 2020."

Outlook

S&P said, "The outlook is stable because we think the global demand
for container transport should progressively recover from the
second half of 2020, and we believe Hapag-Lloyd can withstand the
currently difficult operating environment. In our base case, we
expect adjusted FFO to debt to drop to 17%-18% in 2020 but recover
toward 20% in 2021, indicating ample financial headroom under the
current rating."

Downside scenario:   S&P said, "We would lower the rating if our
adjusted FFO-to-debt metric declines and stays below 12% for a
prolonged period because operating conditions do not ease in the
second half of 2020, with trade volumes dropping more than we
currently expect, and industry pricing discipline deteriorates
because some container liners prioritize filling capacities ahead
of preserving operating margins." This would be combined with
Hapag-Lloyd implementing insufficient measures to preserve cash and
moderate the erosion of credit metrics, such as timely capex cuts
and cost-cutting actions beyond those already in place.

Upside scenario:   S&P could raise the rating if its adjusted
FFO-to-debt ratio for Hapag-Lloyd comfortably exceeds 20% on a
sustainable basis. This could occur if global trade recovers over
2021, and the company's ongoing cost base optimization and debt
reduction contribute to credit metric improvement, while it
maintains solid liquidity.

CMA CGM S.A.

CMA CGM, the world's fourth-largest provider of container shipping
services, has strengthened its liquidity position in recent months.
  S&P said, "We consider CMA CGM's liquidity to be adequate rather
than less than adequate, despite the expected lower cash flow
generation in 2020. According to our base case, liquidity sources
will exceed uses by more than 1.5x in 2020 and by more than 1.2x in
2021, thanks to various treasury measures. These include an almost
fully executed disposal and liquidity enhancement plan that will
release a total of $2.1 billion in cash proceeds: for example, CMA
CGM closed the sale of a $1 billion portfolio of terminals to China
Merchants Port Holdings, along with several sale-and-leaseback
deals generating about $930 million in cash. Furthermore, the group
rolled over, to 2023, $535 million of unsecured revolving credit
facilities (RCFs) maturing in 2020, including a $405 million RCF at
CMA CGM. Furthermore, we believe that CMA CGM is eligible for and
could potentially benefit from funding under a French state support
scheme to enhance its liquidity, on top of measures it has taken in
recent months."

CMA CGM will find it difficult to maintain solid EBITDA achieved
last year amid sluggish global trade due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
S&P said, "We estimate that adjusted EBITDA will drop to $3.1
billion-$3.2 billion in 2020 from $3.8 billion in 2019 and compared
with our previous base-case of about $3.9 billion. We anticipate a
10%-15% decline in transported trade volumes in 2020. This is
consistent with our expectation of up to a 15% decline in global
trade volumes, assuming COVID-19-related disruptions to trade flows
and supply chains start easing from midyear 2020." Revenue
shortfall and fixed operating costs (accounting for up to 30%-40%
of total costs), partly offset by lower bunker fuel prices, will
weigh on CMA CGM's earnings capacity.

S&P said, "We see an uncertain recovery path for credit measures,
depending on how the pandemic evolves and its impact on the global
economy and trade.   CMA CGM's reduced debt--thanks to asset
disposals and the deconsolidation of terminals (sold to China
Merchants Port Holdings Co. in early 2020)--will moderate the
impact of the expected EBITDA decline and erosion of credit
measures. In our base case, adjusted FFO to debt will drop to
10%-11% in 2020 from about 13% in 2019, compared with our rating
threshold of at least 12%. This resulted in a negative view of the
company in our comparable ratings analysis and our adjustment of
its anchor to 'b+' from 'bb-'. We envisage financial performance
improving in 2021, with adjusted EBITDA expanding to $3.5
billion-$3.7 billion and adjusted FFO to debt rising to above 12%,
thanks to higher demand for container transportation and a gradual
recovery at CEVA Logistics (currently undergoing a major
transformation). In the current environment, however, risks to our
forecasts are high, given low earnings visibility."

Outlook

The negative outlook reflects S&P's view that CMA CGM's financial
metrics will be under pressure in the difficult economic
environment, which it thinks will continue to undermine consumer
confidence, delay purchase decisions, and reduce trade volumes.

Downside scenario:   S&P said, "We would lower the rating if demand
does not recover in the second half of 2020 and freight rate
conditions deteriorate, weighing on profitability, without CMA CGM
taking sufficient offsetting actions such as timely capex
optimization and strict cost cutting measures beyond those already
implemented, resulting in adjusted FFO to debt staying below 12%
for a prolonged period. We would also lower the rating if CMA CGM's
earnings fall short of our base case, which combined with the
company's inability to offset the shortfall through, for example,
further asset disposals or funds backed by the French state support
scheme, will result in insufficient liquidity sources to cover
upcoming bond maturities, in particular the outstanding $725
million unsecured notes due in January 2021."

Upside scenario:   To revise the outlook to stable, S&P would need
to be confident that demand conditions are normalizing and the
recovery is robust enough to restore CMA CGM's financial strength,
with adjusted FFO to debt higher than 12%. Conservative capital
spending, positive free operating cash flow, and debt reduction,
alongside stabilized liquidity, would support a positive rating
action.

CEVA Logistics AG

S&P said, "We equalize our rating on CEVA Logistics with that on
CMA CGM, which owns all the shares.  We view CEVA Logistics as a
core group entity and therefore equalize our rating on CEVA
Logistics with that on the parent and the group credit profile of
'b+'. Proactive treasury management has relieved near-term
liquidity pressure for the group. However, we think transported
trade volumes due to the COVID-19 pandemic will decline by 10%-15%
in 2020 and lead to a drop in earnings in CMA CGM's major shipping
segment. The related increasing macroeconomic uncertainty will also
delay an improvement in operating performance at CEVA Logistics,
which contributed about 13% of the group's total adjusted EBITDA in
2019 and is undergoing a major restructuring and transformation
initiated by its owner CMA CGM.

"We expect cost-cutting to only partly offset revenue losses in the
weaker industry environment.  For CEVA Logistics, we anticipate a
drop in revenues to below $6.5 billion in 2020 from $7.1 billion in
2019, unlike our previous forecast of low single-digit growth. This
is due to the company's high exposure to the automotive and retail
industries, hit hardest by the pandemic. As such, we expect CEVA
Logistics' profitability to deteriorate in 2020 from its already
low 2019 level, which was weighed down by large write-downs on
loss-making contracts and several major customer losses in the
Freight Management and Contract Logistics divisions. In 2019, CEVA
Logistics' EBIT margin was just 0.9% after 1.7% in 2018. We
forecast it will recover up to 2% in 2021 as business rebounds, but
this is still significantly lower than our previous projection of
about 4% and the average for rated European logistics peers. We
currently view the low margin as a major constraint and therefore
now see CEVA Logistics' business risk profile as weak rather than
fair, and its financial risk profile as highly leveraged instead of
aggressive. As a result, we've revised to 'b' from 'b+' our
assessment of CEVA Logistics' stand-alone credit profile (SACP).

"We foresee high cash use this year, but liquidity should remain
adequate, thanks to support from CMA CGM.   In 2019, CEVA generated
negative free operating cash flow (after lease payments),
necessitating $198 million in cash injections from CMA CGM that
allowed the company to pass its net leverage (net debt to EBITDA)
covenant test. In 2020, we expect CEVA Logistics' negative cash
flow generation will continue, and the company will rely on
continued support from its parent to pass the net leverage covenant
test, with the net debt to EBITDA threshold stepping down to 3.75x
as of Dec. 31, 2020, from 4x currently. We still view CEVA
Logistics' liquidity as adequate, given the ongoing support from
CMA CGM. Apart from net leverage, CEVA Logistics' senior facilities
agreement includes a covenant stipulating EBITDA to net finance
charges no lower than 2.0x both tested quarterly. The definition of
EBITDA in the agreement allows adjustments and certain items to be
added back to reported EBITDA to calculate the covenant ratios. As
of Dec. 31, 2019, CEVA Logistics complied with both financial
covenants. Leverage was 3.5x compared with the test level of 4.0x
and the interest coverage ratio was 2.6x versus the test level of
2.0x. We believe CEVA Logistics will remain compliant with these
covenants, given ongoing group support if needed."

Outlook

The negative outlook reflects that on the parent, CMA CGM.

Downside scenario:   S&P said, "We would lower our rating on CEVA
if CMA CGM were downgraded. Additionally, we could lower our rating
on CEVA Logistics if we changed our view on its status as a core
group entity and its SACP did not strengthen to 'b+' in the
meantime."

Upside scenario:   S&P could revise the outlook to stable if it
took similar action on CMA CGM, assuming that demand conditions are
normalizing and the recovery is robust enough to restore CMA CGM's
financial strength, with adjusted FFO to debt above 12%, and the
group maintains solid liquidity.

  Ratings List

  A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S

  Ratings Affirmed  

  A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S
    Senior Unsecured                 BBB

  Ratings Affirmed; CreditWatch/Outlook Action  
                                      To           From
  A.P. Moller - Maersk A/S
   Issuer Credit Rating       BBB/Negative/--    BBB/Stable/--

  CEVA Logistics AG

  Ratings Affirmed  

  CEVA Logistics AG
  Ceva Logistics Finance B.V.
  CEVA Group PLC
   Issuer Credit Rating            B+/Negative/--

  Ceva Logistics Finance B.V.
   Senior Secured                  B+
    Recovery Rating                4(35%)

  CMA CGM S.A.

  Ratings Affirmed  

  CMA CGM S.A.
   Issuer Credit Rating            B+/Negative/--
    Senior Unsecured               B-
     Recovery Rating               6(0%)

  Hapag-Lloyd AG

  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  
                                      To           From
  Hapag-Lloyd AG
   Issuer Credit Rating         B+/Stable/--    B+/Positive/--
   Senior Unsecured                   B-
    Recovery Rating                  6(0%)


RAFFINERIE HEIDE: Moody's Cuts CFR, Outlook Remains Negative
------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Raffinerie Heide GmbH's
corporate family rating to Caa1 from B3 and downgraded the
company's probability of default rating to Caa1-PD from B3-PD. At
the same time, Moody's downgraded the instrument rating of the
senior secured EUR250 million bond due 2022 to Caa1 from B3. The
outlook remains negative.

"Its rating action reflects Heide's high Moody's adjusted leverage
at 7.9x debt to EBITDA at the end of 2019, which is outside of its
expectations for a B3 rating entering the downturn caused by
COVID-19", says Janko Lukac, Moody's analyst for Heide. "The
negative outlook reflects its expectations that Heide's earnings
and cash flows may erode meaningfully over the next quarters and
weaken its liquidity", adds Janko Lukac.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices and asset
price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit shock
across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The refining
sector has been affected by the shock given its sensitivity to
consumer demand and sentiment. More specifically, Heide's credit
profile has left it vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in
these unprecedented operating conditions and Heide remains
vulnerable to the outbreak continuing to spread. Moody's regards
the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its ESG framework,
given the substantial implications for public health and safety.
Its action reflects the impact on Heide of the breadth and severity
of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit quality it has
triggered.

Moody's downgraded Heide's CFR to Caa1, as the downturn caused by
the spread of the COVID-19 virus is likely to depress earnings and
cash flow of refiners over at least the next several quarters.
Hence, Moody's does not foresee Heide reducing its leverage to
below 6.0x from the current 7.9x in 2020 as required for the B3
rating and notes that Heide is likely to report negative free cash
flows in 2020.

As a result of the rapid collapse in crude oil prices, Moody's
expects the liquidity needs of the petroleum refining sector to be
significantly increased. In particular, the dislocation in crude
oil prices and unprecedented drop in refined product demand is
likely to generate a sudden and substantial increase in second
quarter working capital needs among the refiners, posing a
significant near-term financing requirement. In order to generate
additional liquidity, Heide has agreed with the German tax
authorities to delay the payment of EUR38 million in energy taxes
until September 2020 and EUR26 million of VAT payments until
November 2020 and postponed its statutory turnaround from 2020 into
2021, lowering CAPEX spending by about EUR25 million in 2020. There
are potentially other options of liquidity available to the company
such as KfW guaranteed facilities if it chooses to pursue this.
However, currently Heide does not see a need to do so.

At the same time, Moody's notes that Heide has no revolving credit
facility in place and has a maintenance covenant (requirement of at
least EUR40 million cash on balance) under both its EUR150 million
receivables and inventory financing (no volume limit) programs.
Given the current market conditions, Moody's cautions that under
its base case assumptions the company's cash balance could weaken
close towards EUR40 million during the course of 2020. Hence, the
rating agency will closely monitor Heide's cash balance and react
if the headroom should tighten.

LIQUIDTY

Heide's liquidity profile has weakened in the current environment.
The cash balance amounted to approximately EUR80 million as of
March 31, 2020 of which EUR5 million was restricted. Moody's
believes that this should be sufficient for day to day operations
in combination with the inventory and factoring facilities in place
but cautions on potential adverse negative working capital effects
from the COVID-19 crisis. Heide has no significant upcoming
maturities until December 2022, when its EUR250 million senior
secured bond comes due.

The refinery has a receivables financing facility of EUR150 million
in place (of which 63% was utilized at the end of Q1 2020, down
from 86% by year end 19). This facility is provided by Norddeutsche
Landesbank GZ (senior unsecured rating: A3, stable), NIBC Bank N.V.
(senior unsecured rating: Baa1, stable) and Raiffeisen Bank
International AG (senior unsecured rating: A3, stable). The
facility has a fixed term until November 2020 (or six months'
notice thereafter).

Heide also has access to an inventory financing facility with
Macquarie Group Ltd (senior unsecured rating: A3, stable) which
owns and holds almost all of the crude oil and refined products
requirements of Heide. This helps the company to fund its crude and
product inventory financing needs. This facility is not considered
as a debt obligation under Moody's adjusted debt and has a fixed
term until December 2020 (or six months' notice thereafter).

GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

Governance considerations for Heide include the dominant position
and ability to frame the company's strategy and financial policy of
A. Gary Klesch, the ultimate beneficial owner of the refinery. Mr.
Klesch has bought the refinery in 2010 from Shell Deutschland AG
for about $100 million (as reported by Shell). The current bond
documentation allows dividend distributions of up to 50% of
cumulative consolidated net income post October 1, 2017. The
Company has no plans for any dividend distributions in the short
term and has not issued any dividends since the issue of the bond.
Total dividends paid so far account for EUR366 million in total
since 2015 (of which EUR200 million was associated with the bond
issue) and Klesch group receives about EUR23 million fees annually
from Heide on an arm's length basis for services including the
crude & product supply & trading and hedging programs.

OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects the uncertainties around the demand
for Heide's refined products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline
and its impact on working capital and free cash flows in 2020/21
due the downturn caused by Covid 19. Moody's will closely monitor
Heide's liquidity and downgrade Heide's rating if cash balance
should decline towards EUR40 million and at same time no waiver
from its banking group under the inventory and receivables
facilities would have been granted.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Heide's rating could be upgraded to B3 if: (1) the refinery shows a
resilience to highly volatile crude prices and its end market
demand were about to stabilize, (2) Heide lowers its adjusted debt
to EBITDA below 6.0x on a sustained basis (3) Heide generates
meaningful positive free cash flows and strengthens its liquidity
profile.

Heide's rating could be downgraded if: (1) Heide's end market for
refined products and refining margins further deteriorate (2)
Heide's adjusted debt /EBITDA remains above 7.0x, when approaching
the maturity of its EUR250 million in December 2022 (3) Heide posts
meaningful negative free cash flows resulting in a deterioration of
its liquidity.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Refining and
Marketing Industry published in November 2016.

PROFILE

Raffinerie Heide GmbH is a small-sized refining company owning a
fully integrated refinery and petrochemical complex located north
of Hamburg (Germany) which includes a refinery, pipelines, tankage,
a coastal terminal operation and a captive power plant. The
refinery has a crude distillation capacity of 33.5 million barrels
per year (91.7 kbpd) and was acquired by the Klesch group in 2010
from Shell Deutschland Oil GmbH.

THYSSENKRUPP AG: Egan-Jones Lowers Senior Unsec. Debt Ratings to B
------------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company, on April 20, 2020, downgraded the
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by ThyssenKrupp AG to B from BB-. EJR also downgraded
the rating on commercial paper issued by the Company to B from A3.

Headquartered in Essen, Germany, ThyssenKrupp AG is a German
multinational conglomerate with a focus on industrial engineering
and steel production.




=============
H U N G A R Y
=============

NITROGENMUVEK ZRT: S&P Alters Outlook to Pos. & Affirms 'B-' Rating
-------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Nitrogenmuvek Zrt. to
positive from stable and affirmed its 'B-' ratings.

S&P said, "We expect further improvement in credit ratios in 2020,
supported by favorable natural gas prices and higher volumes.  
Following swift deleveraging in 2019, with S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA reaching 5.0x at year-end 2019 from
more than 10.0x at year-end 2018, we expect a further reduction in
leverage to 3.8x-4.5x this year. The strong performance in 2019
primarily stemmed from increased EBITDA, which almost tripled to
Hungarian forint (HUF) 17.8 billion (EUR55 million) thanks to
substantially lower natural gas prices in Europe than in 2018,
which more than offset slightly lower nitrogen-fertilizer sale
prices. We expect natural gas prices to decrease further in 2020,
with potential for a moderate recovery from 2021, although likely
staying well below the 2018 level. Nitrogen-fertilizer prices are
correlated with gas prices and could decline in 2020. However,
healthy demand for nitrogen fertilizers, as shown by a more than
50% increase in the company's delivered volumes in first-quarter
2020, support continuously solid nitrate premiums and further
strengthening of profitability. Despite lower production volumes in
2019, due to the extensive scheduled plant maintenance every three
years, we expect production to rebound this year and remain high in
2021, given no large scheduled maintenance works in either year. As
a result, we expect adjusted EBITDA to further increase to HUF20
billion-HUF25 billion." However, there is some uncertainty about
the pace of deleveraging, since the company still needs to build up
a track record of higher production stability as shown by a
reduction in unexpected plant outages.

Continuous deleveraging and positive FOCF indicate increased rating
headroom.   FOCF increased significantly to HUF20 billion in 2019,
fueled by higher EBITDA, working capital releases, and lower
capital expenditure (capex) following the completion of large
expansion projects in 2017. Substantial working capital inflow last
year stemmed from positive one-off effects from customer advance
payments in the last quarter and the winding down of inventory in
crop trading, both of which are not recurring. S&P therefore
expects FOCF to be lower this year, but remain solidly positive.
Combined with continuous deleveraging, this indicates increased
headroom under the current rating, hence its positive outlook.

Highly volatile profitability and cash flows reflect the industry's
cyclicality and the company's vulnerability to an increase in
natural gas prices, decrease in fertilizer prices, and extended
plant outages.   Nitrogenmuvek's credit ratios remain volatile,
reflecting the fertilizer industry's cyclicality. Extensive
scheduled plant maintenance every three years also leads to
relatively high volatility in production volume. For example, a
more than 10% decline in production volumes in 2022 due to large
scheduled maintenance can result in leverage temporarily weakening
to above 6.5x in our base case. Moreover, the company's
profitability and cash flows depend on multiple external factors
outside its control, such as natural gas and nitrogen fertilizer
prices in Europe, the latter driven by the still fragile
supply-demand balance and unexpected adverse weather conditions.
S&P views Nitrogenmuvek's credit metrics as more vulnerable to
external changes than most of its larger European peers (such as
Yara and OCI), due to its relatively small size and limited
diversification in products and geographies. Leverage peaked to
more than 10x in 2018, when natural gas price surged in the second
half, combined with adverse weather conditions weighing on nitrogen
fertilizer prices, as well as lower-than-expected production due to
extended unplanned plant outages.

S&P said, "We expect the COVID-19 pandemic to have a very limited
negative impact on Nitrogenmuvek's performance.  Since nitrogen
fertilizers are important to secure healthy crop production, we do
not expect a negative impact from COVID-19 on market demand for
nitrogen fertilizers, the distribution of which has also been
subject to few restrictions. We understand that the company's plant
operation and supply chain have remained uninterrupted so far." The
company's main focus is to keep production running at the current
high rate.

The positive outlook indicates that S&P could raise the rating if
Nitrogenmuvek delivers continued improvements in leverage and FOCF
generation in the next 12 months.

S&P could raise the rating if:

-- Nitrogenmuvek develops a track record of recurring positive
FOCF generation and improved production stability, as shown by
limited unplanned plant outages in the next 12 months; and

-- Leverage improves, with adjusted debt to EBITDA sustainably
below 6x on average through the cycle and financial policy remains
supportive of a higher rating.

S&P could revise the outlook to stable if:

-- Nitrogenmuvek's operating performance did not improve in line
with its base-case scenario, due to a sudden surge in European
natural gas prices or longer-than-expected unplanned plant outages,
with FOCF turning negative with weakening liquidity; or

-- Adjusted debt to EBITDA weakens, climbing above 6x without
near-term prospects of recovery.




=============
I R E L A N D
=============

DRYDEN 74: Moody's Gives B3 Rating to EUR11MM Class F Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service announced that it has assigned the
following definitive ratings to notes issued by Dryden 74 Euro CLO
2020 DAC:

EUR 246,400,000 Class A Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2033, Definitive Rating Assigned Aaa (sf)

EUR 17,900,000 Class B-1 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due
2033, Definitive Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)

EUR 20,000,000 Class B-2 Senior Secured Fixed Rate Notes due 2033,
Definitive Rating Assigned Aa2 (sf)

EUR 14,700,000 Class C-1 Mezzanine Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2033, Definitive Rating Assigned A2 (sf)

EUR 10,000,000 Class C-2 Mezzanine Secured Deferrable Fixed Rate
Notes due 2033, Definitive Rating Assigned A2 (sf)

EUR 29,200,000 Class D Mezzanine Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2033, Definitive Rating Assigned Baa3 (sf)

EUR 23,800,000 Class E Mezzanine Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2033, Definitive Rating Assigned Ba3 (sf)

EUR 11,000,000 Class F Mezzanine Secured Deferrable Floating Rate
Notes due 2033, Definitive Rating Assigned B3 (sf)

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rationale for the ratings is based on a consideration of the
risks associated with the CLO's portfolio and structure as
described in its methodology.

The Issuer is a managed cash flow CLO. At least 90% of the
portfolio must consist of senior secured obligations and up to 10%
of the portfolio may consist of senior unsecured obligations,
second-lien loans, mezzanine obligations and high yield bonds. The
portfolio is expected to be 75% ramped up as of the closing date
and to comprise of predominantly corporate loans to obligors
domiciled in Western Europe. The remainder of the portfolio will be
acquired during the 6-month ramp-up period in compliance with the
portfolio guidelines.

PGIM Limited will manage the CLO. It will direct the selection,
acquisition and disposition of collateral on behalf of the Issuer
and may engage in trading activity, including discretionary
trading, during the transaction's 4.5-year reinvestment period.
Thereafter, subject to certain restrictions, purchases are
permitted using principal proceeds from unscheduled principal
payments and proceeds from sales of credit risk obligations or
credit improved obligations.

In addition to the eight classes of notes rated by Moody's, the
Issuer has issued EUR 39,000,000 Subordinated Notes due 2033 which
are not rated.

The transaction incorporates interest and par coverage tests which,
if triggered, divert interest and principal proceeds to pay down
the notes in order of seniority.

Its analysis has considered the increased uncertainty relating to
the effect of the coronavirus outbreak on the European economy as
well as the effects that the announced government measures put in
place to contain the virus, will have on the performance of
corporate assets. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a
social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial
implications for public health and safety. It is a global health
shock, which makes it extremely difficult to provide an economic
assessment. The degree of uncertainty around its forecasts is
unusually high.

Methodology underlying the rating action:

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Global
Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan Obligations" published in
March 2019.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:

The rated notes' performance is subject to uncertainty. The notes'
performance is sensitive to the performance of the underlying
portfolio, which in turn depends on economic and credit conditions
that may change. The collateral manager's investment decisions and
management of the transaction will also affect the notes'
performance.

Moody's modeled the transaction using a cash flow model based on
the Binomial Expansion Technique, as described in Section 2.3 of
the "Moody's Global Approach to Rating Collateralized Loan
Obligations" rating methodology published in March 2019.

Moody's used the following base-case modeling assumptions:

Par Amount: EUR 400,000,000

Diversity Score: 51

Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF): 3038

Weighted Average Spread (WAS): 3.70%

Weighted Average Coupon (WAC): 4.50%

Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR): 42.5%

Weighted Average Life (WAL): 8.5 years

Moody's has addressed the potential exposure to obligors domiciled
in countries with local currency ceiling (LCC) or foreign currency
ceiling of A1 or below. As per the portfolio constraints and
eligibility criteria, exposures to countries with LCC (or FCC if
such country is not in the European Union) of A1 to A3 cannot
exceed 10% and obligors cannot be domiciled in countries with LCC
(or FCC if such country is not in the European Union) below A3.

PERMANENT TSB: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative & Affirms BB- ICR
---------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings took various rating actions on Irish banks.

S&P affirmed all the ratings and revised the outlooks to negative
from stable on:

-- Allied Irish Banks PLC (AIB), its nonoperating holding company
(NOHC) AIB Group PLC (AIB Group), and U.K.-based subsidiary AIB
Group (UK) PLC;

-- Bank of Ireland (BOI) and its NOHC Bank of Ireland Group PLC
(BOIG); and

-- Permanent TSB PLC (PTSB) and its NOHC Permanent TSB Group
Holdings PLC (PTSB NOHC).

-- S&P affirmed the ratings and stable outlook on KBC Bank Ireland
PLC.

The rating actions follow a review of several banking systems in
Western Europe amid the COVID-19 pandemic and its unprecedented
effects on economies. The Irish economy is small and open, making
it vulnerable to economic cycles and external shocks, like the ones
caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. S&P said, "We expect the Irish
economy to contract in 2020 and recover only gradually starting
from 2021. However, despite the anticipated recovery, we believe
that there will be significant pressure on Irish banks' operating
environment and earnings prospects over the next two-to-three
years. Of course, we expect a rise in credit costs after years of
provision recoveries. However, we are revising our Banking Industry
Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) industry risk trend to negative (as
opposed to the economic risk trend for most other systems) to
reflect the heightened downside risk we see for Irish banks to
generate structurally sound profitability, which is more acute than
fundamental and prolonged economic weakness in the economy. Indeed,
profitability is under increasing pressure due to a persistently
high cost base as Irish banks continue investing into business
transformation and digital capabilities, amid compressing interest
margins and a lack of business diversity. Growth opportunities are
modest and competition stiff given high industry concentration and
the relatively small size of the domestic economy and bankable
population. The rating actions we have taken reflect that we now
see Irish banks' profitability remaining structurally low for at
least the next two years with return on equity in the low single
digits."

Until the start of March, Irish banks were fully engaged with the
same two key themes that have been paramount in recent
years--harmonizing balance sheet strength with solid investor
returns, and identifying how to refine business and operating
models in the face of the looming risks and opportunities of the
digital era. For the short term at least, the COVID-19 pandemic has
changed (almost) everything. In addition to the human cost, large
parts of economic activity in Ireland and much of the rest of
Europe have ground to a halt. With isolation strategies still very
much in force, our economists expect a sharp economic contraction
in second-quarter 2020, followed by a rebound starting in the third
quarter. However, they are now more cautious on the strength of
recovery through year-end 2020 and into 2021, envisaging a 5.5%
real GDP contraction this year to be followed by 5.5% growth in
2021. Even under this base case, the effects of COVID-19 will be
evident long after the crisis subsides.

Authorities have delivered unprecedented policy responses in the
form of monetary, fiscal, and regulatory support to their
economies. The better-capitalized, better-funded, more-liquid banks
that have gradually emerged in Ireland since the global financial
crisis have played an instrumental role as a conduit of the
expansion of low cost credit to affected households and businesses.
S&P said, "However, while we expect banks in Ireland and across
Europe to remain resilient in the face of this short-term cyclical
shock, we expect that it will have a meaningful impact on asset
quality, revenue, profitability, and, potentially, capitalization.
We expect very few of these negative trends to be strongly evident
in Irish banks' first-quarter results, but consider that they would
become increasingly evident through the course of 2020 and persist
into 2021." Banks' asset quality will be key to this outcome.

S&P said, "We are acutely mindful that this base case remains
subject to significant downside risks. Even under our economic base
case, the policy responses taken in Ireland may not be completely
successful in avoiding permanent economic damage later. We note
also that a significant component of the fiscal support package
comprises additional indebtedness--for the sovereign, some
households, and many businesses. At best, the easing of physical
isolation will not start for some weeks, is likely to be slow, and
could be subject to setbacks. The longer the delay in the recovery
of economic activity, the less sustainable this extra debt will
be.

"Across the Irish banking sector, we have affirmed bank ratings in
view of the resilience that we expect them to demonstrate in the
face of this short-term cyclical event. Negative outlooks tend to
reflect the significant downside risks that we see, and our
expectation that we could lower ratings on one or several banks if
the recession weakens the structural profitability of the banking
sector beyond the inevitable increase in credit losses. We will
look particularly at how pre-provision income evolves. We overlay
this broad assessment with our view on the idiosyncratic features
of individual banks, reflecting aspects such as pre-existing
positive and negative rating pressures, their asset and funding
profiles, and our view of their potential to absorb setbacks within
earnings and so avoid significant capital depletion."

AIB Group PLC

S&P said, "The outlook revision to negative from stable reflects
the sharp reduction in economic activity we anticipate for Ireland
and the U.K., where the bank operates via its subsidiary AIB UK
PLC, in 2020. It also reflects our view that there are downside
risks to the ratings given the material uncertainties associated
with the COVID-19 pandemic and to Irish banks' operating
environment in general, leading to weaker business and
profitability prospects. The longer and deeper the economic
contraction, and related repercussion on capital markets, the more
this could impair AIB's business prospects, revenue generation
capacity, returns, and asset quality. The bank's structural
exposure to local midsize enterprises and larger
corporates--reliant on the domestic and global economies
respectively--pose asset-quality risks. Indeed, we expect credit
losses to rise in 2020, following recoveries in recent years. The
group's relatively modest business and revenue diversification,
compared with stronger international peers', could sharpen the
downside risk to its earnings and internal capital generation
capacity, in our view, since interest rates remain low and
competition stiff. Still, the ratings affirmation reflects our
expectation that AIB will be able to withstand the negative effects
of a shock to the economy and private sector in the first nine
months of 2020, while remaining committed to its medium-term
business plan objectives, in particular cost discipline and
asset-quality performance. Our view is supported by the measures
announced by the Irish government and European Central Bank (ECB),
which aim to provide liquidity support to affected corporates,
small and midsize enterprises (SMEs), individuals, and financial
institutions while potentially calming volatility in the capital
markets." AIB's decade-long deleveraging and focus on
risk-management improvement have better placed the bank to
withstand an economic shock.

The negative outlook on AIB UK reflects that on its ultimate parent
AIB Group. S&P said, "We consider AIB UK to be strategically
important to its parent. As such, we cap the ratings at one notch
below our 'bbb+' group credit profile (GCP) on AIB Group. This
means that we could lower the ratings on the U.K.-based subsidiary
following a similar action on the group."

Bank of Ireland Group PLC

S&P said, "The outlook revision to negative from stable reflects
the sharp economic slowdown we anticipate in 2020 for Ireland and
the U.K., where the bank operates commercial banking operations, on
the back of the COVID-19 pandemic and our view that there are
downside risks to Irish banks' operating environment, leading to
weaker business and profitability prospects. The longer and deeper
the economic contraction than we currently anticipate, the more
this could impair BOI Group's business prospects, pre-provision
income, returns, and asset quality. BOIG has better diversification
compared with other domestic players in terms of geographies and
business lines, due to its large operations in the U.K. and its
domestic insurance franchise. However, in the current environment,
BOIG may not benefit much from this diversification since the
pandemic is negatively affecting different sectors and we forecast
declining interest-related revenue and weaker fees from asset
gathering businesses. We expect the performance of the mortgage
book, which represents most of BOIG's loan exposure (equally split
between Ireland and the U.K.) could slightly worsen, while exposure
to domestic midsize enterprises and corporates could represent more
significant asset-quality risks. We also forecast a rise in credit
losses in 2020, which will put additional pressure on the group's
profitability."

Before the emergence of the pandemic, BOIG was already struggling
to meet its profitability targets due to pressure from low interest
rates on income and necessary digital investments, which are hard
to offset with equivalent cost savings. Still, the ratings
affirmation reflects our expectation that it will be able to
withstand the negative effects of a shock to the economy thanks to
years of deleveraging, clean-up and focus on risk management
improvement. Therefore, the bank has entered this crisis with good
capital buffers and a liquidity cushion. The measures announced by
the Irish government and ECB, aimed at providing liquidity support
to economic agents and smoothing volatility in the capital markets,
also support S&P's view.

KBC Bank Ireland

S&P said, "We are affirming our 'BBB/A-2' ratings and maintaining
the stable outlook on KBC Bank Ireland PLC (KBCI). The rating
action primarily reflects our view that KBCI's parent, KBC Group,
will remain willing and able to provide both ongoing and
extraordinary support to its Irish subsidiary over the next 18-24
months. Specifically, we expect that KBCI will continue benefitting
from funding, liquidity, portfolio de-risking, and capital support,
as well as from the group's expertise and diverse experience in
digitalization. In our view, this will allow KBCI to proceed with
its ongoing business and digital transformation plan,
notwithstanding a material deterioration in the surrounding
macroeconomic environment. We expect the bank to suffer the same
profitability pressures as domestic peers, in part due to its lack
of diversification, but parental support should mitigate these
risks. We also consider several positive factors in our assessment,
including authorities' unprecedented policy responses. The measures
introduced by the Irish government aim to provide liquidity support
to affected SMEs, individuals, and financial institutions.
Moreover, given KBCI's profile as a retail bank focusing on
mortgage lending, we see the effects from the COVID-19
macroeconomic shock as more manageable than for corporate-exposed
banks."

Permanent TSB Group Holding PLC

The outlook revision to negative from stable reflects the sharp
economic slowdown we anticipate for Ireland in 2020 on the back of
the COVID-19 pandemic and our view that there are downside risks in
Irish banks' operating environment, leading to weaker business and
profitability prospects. S&P said, "We forecast a reduction in
interest-related revenue and fees because demand for new mortgages
is likely to decline and interest rates remain low. We expect the
performance of mortgages, which dominate the group's loan exposure,
to deteriorate somewhat. Therefore, we forecast an increase in
credit losses in 2020 and 2021, placing additional pressure on the
group's already-modest profitability. In our view, the group's lack
of business diversity remains the main impediment for
profitability. However, we have affirmed the rating as years of
deleveraging and balance sheet clean-up have substantially improved
the group's capital position and better placed it to cope with the
current economic shock than a decade ago."

  BICRA Score Snapshot
  Ireland
                                  To              From
  BICRA Group*                     4                4
  Economic Risk                    5                5
  Economic Resilience           Low risk         Low risk
  Economic Imbalances          High risk         High risk
  Credit Risk in the Economy   High risk         High risk
  Industry Risk                    4                4
  Institutional Framework   Intermediate risk   Intermediate risk
  Competitive Dynamics      Intermediate risk Intermediate risk
  Systemwide Funding        Intermediate risk Intermediate risk
  Economic Risk trend            Stable            Stable
  Industry Risk Trend           Negative           Stable

*Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) economic risk and
industry risk scores are on a scale from 1 (lowest risk) to 10
(highest risk).

  Ratings List

  AIB Group PLC
  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  
                                  To        From
  AIB Group PLC
   Issuer Credit Rating     BBB-/Negative/A-3    BBB-/Stable/A-3

  AIB Group (U.K.) PLC
   Issuer Credit Rating     BBB/Negative/A-2     BBB/Stable/A-2

  Allied Irish Banks PLC
   Issuer Credit Rating     BBB+/Negative/A-2    BBB+/Stable/A-2

  Bank of Ireland Group PLC

  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  

  Bank of Ireland Group PLC
   Issuer Credit Rating     BBB-/Negative/A-3    BBB-/Stable/A-3

  Bank of Ireland
   Issuer Credit Rating     A-/Negative/A-2      A-/Stable/A-2

  KBC Group N.V.

  Ratings Affirmed  

  KBC Bank Ireland PLC
   Issuer Credit Rating             BBB/Stable/A-2

  Permanent TSB Group Holdings PLC
  
  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  

  Permanent TSB Group Holdings PLC
   Issuer Credit Rating      BB-/Negative/B     BB-/Stable/B

  Permanent TSB PLC
   Issuer Credit Rating     BBB-/Negative/A-3   BBB-/Stable/A-3


PROVIDUS CLO IV: S&P Assigns Prelim BB- (sf) Rating on Cl. E Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its preliminary credit ratings to
Providus CLO IV DAC's class A, B, C, D, and E notes. At closing,
the issuer will also issue unrated subordinated notes.

Under the transaction documents, the rated notes will pay quarterly
interest unless there is a frequency switch event. Following this,
the notes will switch to semiannual payment.

The portfolio's reinvestment period will end approximately 1 year
after closing, and the portfolio's maximum average maturity date
will be approximately 6.2 years after closing

The preliminary ratings assigned to the notes reflect S&P's
assessment of:

-- The diversified collateral pool, which consists primarily of
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
bonds that are governed by collateral quality tests.

-- The credit enhancement provided through the subordination of
cash flows, excess spread, and overcollateralization.

-- The collateral manager's experienced team, which can affect the
performance of the rated notes through collateral selection,
ongoing portfolio management, and trading.

  Portfolio Benchmarks
                                                      Current
  S&P Global Ratings weighted-average rating factor   2,775.20
  Default rate dispersion                               621.14
  Weighted-average life (years)                           5.55
  Obligor diversity measure                              83.46
  Industry diversity measure                             11.43
  Regional diversity measure                              1.48
  
  Transaction Key Metrics
                                                      Current
  Total par amount (mil. EUR)                              200
  Defaulted assets (mil. EUR)                                0
  Number of performing obligors                             94
  Portfolio weighted-average rating
   derived from our CDO evaluator                          'B'
  'CCC' category rated assets (%)                         5.11
  Covenanted 'AAA' weighted-average recovery (%)         37.00
  Covenanted weighted-average spread (%)                  3.55
  Covenanted weighted-average coupon (%)                  5.00

S&P said, "Our preliminary ratings reflect our assessment of the
preliminary collateral portfolio's credit quality, which has a
weighted-average rating of 'B'. We consider that the portfolio will
be well-diversified on the effective date, primarily comprising
broadly syndicated speculative-grade senior secured term loans and
senior secured bonds. Therefore, we conducted our credit and cash
flow analysis by applying our criteria for corporate cash flow
collateralized debt obligations.

"In our cash flow analysis, we used the EUR200 million par amount,
the covenanted weighted-average spread of 3.55%, the covenanted
weighted-average coupon of 5.00%, and the covenanted
weighted-average recovery rates for all rating levels. We applied
various cash flow stress scenarios, using four different default
patterns, in conjunction with different interest rate stress
scenarios for each liability rating category.

"We expect that the transaction's documented counterparty
replacement and remedy mechanisms will adequately mitigate its
exposure to counterparty risk under our current counterparty
criteria.

"Following the application of our structured finance sovereign risk
criteria, we consider the transaction's exposure to country risk to
be limited at the assigned preliminary ratings, as the exposure to
individual sovereigns does not exceed the diversification
thresholds outlined in our criteria.

"At closing, we consider that the transaction's legal structure
will be bankruptcy remote, in line with our legal criteria.

"Our credit and cash flow analysis indicates that the available
credit enhancement for the class B to E notes could withstand
stresses commensurate with higher rating levels than those we have
assigned. However, as the CLO is still in its reinvestment phase,
during which the transaction's credit risk profile could
deteriorate, we have capped our assigned ratings on the notes. In
our view the portfolio is granular in nature, and well-diversified
across obligors, industries, and asset characteristics when
compared to other CLO transactions we have rated recently. As such,
we have not applied any additional scenario and sensitivity
analysis when assigning ratings on any classes of notes in this
transaction.

"Following our analysis of the credit, cash flow, counterparty,
operational, and legal risks, we believe that our preliminary
ratings are commensurate with the available credit enhancement for
the class A, B, C, D, and E notes."

In light of the rapidly shifting credit dynamics within CLO
portfolios due to continuing rating actions (downgrades,
CreditWatch placements, and outlook changes) on speculative-grade
corporate loan issuers, S&P is making qualitative adjustments to
its analysis when rating CLO tranches to reflect the likelihood
that changes to the credit profile of the underlying assets may
affect a portfolio's credit quality in the near term. This is
consistent with paragraph 15 of our criteria for analyzing CLOs. To
do this, S&P reviews the likelihood of near-term changes to the
portfolio's credit profile by evaluating the transaction's specific
risk factors, including, but not limited to, the percentage of the
underlying portfolio that comes from obligors that:

-- Are rated in the 'CCC' range;
-- Are currently on CreditWatch with negative implications;
-- Are rated with negative a negative outlook; or
-- Sit within a static portfolio CLO transaction.

Based S&P reviews of these factors, it believes that the minimum
cushion between this CLO tranches' break-even default rates (BDRs)
and scenario default rates (SDRs) should be 1% (from a possible
range of 1%-5%).

As noted above, the purpose of this analysis is to take a
forward-looking approach for potential near-term changes to the
underlying portfolio's credit profile.

S&P said, "Taking the above into account and following our analysis
of the credit, cash flow, counterparty, operational, and legal
risks, we believe that our ratings are commensurate with the
available credit enhancement for all of the rated classes of
notes.

"In addition to our standard analysis, to provide an indication of
how rising pressures among speculative-grade corporates could
affect our ratings on European CLO transactions, we have also
included the sensitivity of the ratings on the class A to E notes
to five of the 10 hypothetical scenarios we looked at in our recent
publication."

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak. S&P said,
"Some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak about
midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic
and credit implications. We believe the measures adopted to contain
COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession. As the
situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates
accordingly."

Providus CLO IV is a European cash flow CLO securitization of a
revolving pool, comprising euro-denominated senior secured loans
and bonds issued mainly by sub-investment grade borrowers. Permira
Debt Managers Group Holdings Ltd. will manage the transaction.

Ratings List

  Class   Prelim    Preliminary   Sub (%) Interest rate*
          rating      amount
                    (mil. EUR)           
  A       AAA (sf)    112.20        43.90  Three/six-month EURIBOR

                                             plus 1.45%
  B       AA (sf)     27.00         30.40  Three/six-month EURIBOR

                                             plus 2.65%
  C       A (sf)      13.70         23.55  Three/six-month EURIBOR

                                             plus 3.27%
  D       BBB (sf)    11.80         17.65  Three/six-month EURIBOR

                                             plus 4.64%
  E       BB- (sf)     8.70         13.30  Three/six-month EURIBOR

                                             plus 7.00%
  Sub. notes   NR     34.20         N/A    N/A

*The payment frequency switches to semiannual and the index
switches to six-month EURIBOR when a frequency switch event occurs.


EURIBOR--Euro Interbank Offered Rate.

NR--Not rated.

N/A—-Not applicable

PROVIDUS CLO VI: Fitch Gives 'BB-(EXP)sf' Rating on Class E Notes
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Providus CLO VI Designated Activity
Company expected ratings.

The assignment of final ratings is contingent on the receipt of
final documents conforming to information already reviewed.
  
Providus CLO VI DAC     

  - Class A; LT AAA(EXP)sf Expected Rating   

  - Class B; LT AA(EXP)sf Expected Rating   

  - Class C; LT A(EXP)sf Expected Rating   

  - Class D; LT BBB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating   

  - Class E; LT BB-(EXP)sf Expected Rating   

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

Providus CLO VI Designated Activity Company is a cash-flow
collateralised loan obligation. Net proceeds from the notes will be
used to purchase a EUR200 million portfolio of mainly
euro-denominated leveraged loans and bonds. The transaction has a
one-year reinvestment period and a weighted average life of 6.25
years. The portfolio of assets will be managed by Permira Debt
Managers Group Holdings Limited.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

'B'/'B-' Portfolio Credit Quality: Fitch expects the average credit
quality of obligors to be in the 'B' category. The weighted average
rating factor of the identified portfolio is 32.3, below the
maximum WARF covenant for assigning expected ratings of 37.00.

High Recovery Expectations: At least 90% of the portfolio comprises
senior secured obligations. Recovery prospects for these assets are
typically more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The weighted average recovery rating of the
identified portfolio is 69.04%, above the minimum WARR covenant for
assigning expected ratings of 65.00%.

Diversified Asset Portfolio: Exposure to the 10 largest obligors is
covenanted at a maximum 20% of the portfolio balance. The
transaction has various concentration limits, including a maximum
exposure of 40% of the three-largest (Fitch-defined) industries in
the portfolio. These covenants ensure that the asset portfolio will
not be exposed to excessive concentration.

Portfolio Management: The transaction features a one-year
reinvestment period and includes reinvestment criteria similar to
other European transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on a
stressed-case portfolio with the aim of testing the robustness of
the transaction structure against its covenants and portfolio
guidelines.

Cash Flow Analysis: Fitch used a customised proprietary cash flow
model to replicate the principal and interest waterfalls, and the
various structural features of the transaction, as well as to
assess their effectiveness, including the structural protection
provided by excess spread diverted through the par value and
interest coverage tests.

Coronavirus Sensitivity Analysis: In light of the coronavirus
pandemic, Fitch carried out a sensitivity analysis on the target
portfolio, which includes the ramped portfolio and further assets
provided by the manager that it intends to purchase. The agency
notched down the ratings for all assets with corporate issuers on
Negative Outlook regardless of sector and for all issuers in eight
sectors with high exposure to the coronavirus pandemic as
identified by the EMEA Leveraged Finance team.

Fitch assumed these assets will be downgraded by one notch (floor
at 'CCC'). In addition, the stress scenario includes a haircut to
recovery assumptions, by applying a multiplier of 0.85 at all
rating scenarios to issuers in these eight sectors.

Fitch also considered the possibility that the stress portfolio,
determined by the transaction's covenants, would further
deteriorate due to the impact of coronavirus mitigation measures.
Fitch believes this circumstance is adequately addressed by the
inclusion of the downwards notching by a single subcategory of all
collateral obligations on Negative Outlook for the purposes of
determining a Fitch rating of obligations at the effective date.

The model-implied ratings for all tranches under the coronavirus
sensitivity test are the target ratings.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

This section provides insight into the model-implied sensitivities
the transaction faces when one assumption is modified, while
holding others equal. The modelling process uses the modification
of these variables to reflect asset performance in up and down
environments. The results below should only be considered as one
potential outcome, as the transaction is exposed to multiple
dynamic risk factors. It should not be used as an indicator of
possible future performance.

A 25% default multiplier applied to the portfolio's mean default
rate, and with this increase added to all rating default levels,
would lead to a downgrade of up to two notches for the rated notes.
A 25% reduction in recovery rates would lead to a downgrade of up
to four notches for the rated notes.

A 25% default multiplier applied to the portfolio's mean default
rate, and with this subtracted from all rating default levels, and
a 25% increase of the recovery rate at all rating recovery levels,
would lead to an upgrade of up to five notches for the rated
notes.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

The transaction features a reinvestment period and the portfolio is
actively managed. At closing, Fitch will use a standardised stress
portfolio (Fitch's Stressed Portfolio) that is customised to the
specific portfolio limits for the transaction as specified in the
transaction documents. Even if the actual portfolio has lower
defaults and losses (at all rating levels) than Fitch's Stressed
Portfolio assumed at closing, an upgrade of the notes during the
reinvestment period is unlikely, as portfolio credit quality may
still deteriorate, not only through natural credit migration, but
also through reinvestments.

After the end of the reinvestment period, upgrades may occur in
case of better portfolio credit quality and deal performance than
initially expected, leading to higher credit enhancement for the
notes and excess spread available to cover for losses on the
remaining portfolio.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

Fitch has analysed the warehouse portfolio, which includes
EUR112,325,304 of assets, and the target portfolio. Fitch has
identified the following sectors with the highest exposure to the
impact of the coronavirus: automobiles, transportation and
distribution (airline and shipping related); gaming and leisure and
entertainment; retail, lodging and restaurants; metal and mining;
energy, oil and gas; and aerospace and defence (airline related).
The total ramped portfolio exposure to these sectors is 9.64% and
the target portfolio exposure to these sectors is 6.42%.

Fitch has run a scenario that envisages negative rating migration
by one notch for all assets in these sectors, plus any assets that
are on Negative Outlook. This scenario was carried out on the
target portfolio, which includes the ramped portfolio and assets
which the manager intends to purchase, due to the low ramp level of
the warehouse portfolio. The resulting default rate is still below
the breakeven default rate for the stress portfolio analysis,
meaning that rating migration of this magnitude would not affect
the rating of the CLO.

Downgrades may occur if the build-up of credit enhancement for the
notes following amortisation does not compensate for a higher loss
expectation than initially assumed due to an unexpectedly high
level of default and portfolio deterioration. As the disruptions to
supply and demand due to the coronavirus pandemic become apparent
for other sectors, loan ratings in those sectors would also come
under pressure. Fitch will update the sensitivity scenarios in line
with the view of the Fitch Leveraged Finance team.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance
transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as
the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
are based on historical performance.

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10

Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.

DATA ADEQUACY

The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognised Statistical Rating Organisations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information. Overall, Fitch's assessment of the asset pool
information relied upon for the agency's rating analysis according
to its applicable rating methodologies indicates that it is
adequately reliable.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

REPRESENTATIONS, WARRANTIES AND ENFORCEMENT MECHANISMS

A description of the transaction's representations, warranties and
enforcement mechanisms that are disclosed in the offering document
and which relate to the underlying asset pool was not prepared for
this transaction. Offering Documents for this market sector
typically do not include RW&Es that are available to investors and
that relate to the asset pool underlying the trust. Therefore,
Fitch credit reports for this market sector will not typically
include descriptions of RW&Es.

SPICERS IRELAND: High Court Appoints Provisional Liquidators
------------------------------------------------------------
Aodhan O'Faolain at The Irish Times reports that the High Court has
appointed joint provisional liquidators to Spicers Ireland Ltd, a
Dublin-based office supplies wholesaler employing more than 40
people.

On May 1, Ms. Justice Leonie Reynolds appointed insolvency
practitioners Luke Charleton -- luke.charleton@ie.ey.com -- and
Colin Farquharson of EY as joint provisional liquidators to the
company, The Irish Times relates.

The company is part of a UK-based group, and had been operating in
Ireland for over 30 years, The Irish Times notes.

However, the group had been experiencing difficulties and was
involved in a sales process which was not successful, The Irish
Times discloses.

As a result, the group entered administration in the UK, The Irish
Times states.

According to The Irish Times, while the Irish company had been
trading profitably, and was stable, it was heavily dependent on
other companies in the group for important services, including IT.

As a result of entering administration, the provision of those
support services to the Irish company was withdrawn, The Irish
Times relays.

The company had also been experiencing difficulties arising out of
the Covid-19 pandemic, which had caused a dramatic fall in revenue,
The Irish Times states.

The court was told all other options were considered, including
entering examinership, The Irish Times notes.

The Irish company said, given the circumstances, it had no option
other than to seek an order winding up the company and the
appointment of liquidators, The Irish Times recounts.

The company, as cited by The Irish Times, said appointment of joint
provisional liquidators would ensure an orderly winding up, was in
the best interests of employees and the creditors and would ensure
the firm's assets are secured.




=========
I T A L Y
=========

[*] Fitch Takes Action on 12 Tranches from 3 Italian RMBS Deals
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has upgraded the ratings of six notes and
affirmed the ratings of six notes in three Italian RMBS deals. The
rating action reflects the increased levels of credit enhancement
for the affected notes.

Moody's affirmed the ratings of the notes that had sufficient
credit enhancement to maintain the current rating on the affected
notes.

Issuer: Capital Mortgage S.r.l. (Capital Mortgages Series 2007-1)

EUR 1736.0M Class A1 Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on May
22, 2017 Upgraded to A3 (sf)

EUR 644.0M Class A2 Notes, Upgraded to A1 (sf); previously on May
22, 2017 Upgraded to A3 (sf)

EUR 74.0M Class B Notes, Upgraded to B2 (sf); previously on May 22,
2017 Affirmed B3 (sf)

Issuer: Cordusio RMBS - UCFin S.r.l.

EUR 1735.0M Class A2 Notes, Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Oct
25, 2018 Downgraded to Aa3 (sf)

EUR 75.0M Class B Notes, Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Oct 25,
2018 Downgraded to Aa3 (sf)

EUR 25.0M Class C Notes, Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Oct 25,
2018 Downgraded to Aa3 (sf)

EUR 48.0M Class D Notes, Upgraded to A2 (sf); previously on Oct 25,
2018 Affirmed Baa1 (sf)

Issuer: Cordusio RMBS Securitisation S.r.l. - Series 2007

EUR 738.6M Class A3 Notes, Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Oct 25,
2018 Downgraded to Aa3 (sf)

EUR 71.1M Class B Notes, Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Oct 25,
2018 Downgraded to Aa3 (sf)

EUR 43.8M Class C Notes, Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Oct 25,
2018 Affirmed Aa3 (sf)

EUR 102.0M Class D Notes, Upgraded to Baa3 (sf); previously on Oct
25, 2018 Affirmed Ba1 (sf)

EUR 19.5M Class E Notes, Upgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Oct
25, 2018 Affirmed Caa1 (sf)

Maximum achievable rating is Aa3 (sf) for structured finance
transactions in Italy, driven by the corresponding local currency
country ceiling of the country.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rating action is prompted by an increase in credit enhancement
for the affected tranches. Moody's affirmed the ratings of the
notes that had sufficient credit enhancement to maintain the
current rating on the affected notes.

Increase in Available Credit Enhancement

Sequential amortization, non-amortizing reserve funds and a recent
repurchase of some previously defaulted or quasi-defaulted loans
led to the increase in the credit enhancement available in these
transactions. The funds resulting from the repurchases flowed into
the waterfall thus causing some overcollateralization to build up
in Cordusio RMBS - UCFin S.r.l. and Cordusio RMBS Securitisation
S.r.l. - Series 2007 and the outstanding unpaid PDL to decrease
significantly in Capital Mortgage S.r.l. (Capital Mortgages Series
2007-1).

For instance, the credit enhancement for the most senior tranches
upgraded in its rating action increased to 13.44%, 8.03% and
20.50%, respectively, on Cordusio RMBS - UCFin S.r.l., Cordusio
RMBS Securitisation S.r.l. - Series 2007 and Capital Mortgage
S.r.l. (Capital Mortgages Series 2007-1) from 6.22%, 3.35% and
6.45%, respectively, on Cordusio RMBS - UCFin S.r.l., Cordusio RMBS
Securitisation S.r.l. - Series 2007 and Capital Mortgage S.r.l.
(Capital Mortgages Series 2007-1) since the last rating actions.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's
Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN Framework" published in
July 2019.

The analysis undertaken by Moody's at the initial assignment of a
rating for an RMBS security may focus on aspects that become less
relevant or typically remain unchanged during the surveillance
stage. Please see Moody's Approach to Rating RMBS Using the MILAN
Framework for further information on Moody's analysis at the
initial rating assignment and the on-going surveillance in RMBS.

Please note that a Request for Comment was published in which
Moody's requested market feedback on potential revisions to one or
more of the methodologies used in determining these Credit Ratings.
If the revised methodologies are implemented as proposed, it is not
currently expected that the Credit Ratings referenced in this press
release will be affected.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:

Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the
ratings include: (1) performance of the underlying collateral that
is better than Moody's expected; (2) an increase in available
credit enhancement; (3) improvements in the credit quality of the
transaction counterparties; and (4) a decrease in sovereign risk.

Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings include: (1) an increase in sovereign risk; (2) performance
of the underlying collateral that is worse than Moody's expected;
(3) deterioration in the notes' available credit enhancement; and
(4) deterioration in the credit quality of the transaction
counterparties.

Its analysis has considered the increased uncertainty relating to
the effect of the coronavirus outbreak on the Italian economy as
well as the effects that the announced government measures, put in
place to contain the virus, will have on the performance of
consumer assets. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a
social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial
implications for public health and safety. It is a global health
shock, which makes it extremely difficult to provide an economic
assessment. The degree of uncertainty around its forecasts is
unusually high.

[*] Fitch Takes Rating Actions on 7 Credit-Linked Notes
-------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has taken rating action on seven credit-linked
notes.

The rating actions reflect changes in the ratings, Outlooks and
Under Criteria Observation status on the banks that are
risk-presenting entities in the CLN transactions.

Signum Finance II plc BTPei GSI Inflation linked CLN 2041  
    
BTPei GSI Inflation linked CLN 2041 XS0659372980

  - LT BB+sf; Affirmed

Citi- SPIRE 2020-40   
   
  - EUR200mn SPIRE 2020-40 XS2123320629; LT A+sf; Upgrade

Signum Finance II Plc 2016-02  
    
  - 2016-02 XS1391723530; LT BBB+sf; Affirmed

Citi- SPIRE 2019-140  
    
  - EUR250mn Spire 2019-140 XS2092203426; LT A+sf; Upgrade

Citi- SPIRE 2020-08  
    
  - Single Platform Investment Repackaging Entity SA Compartment
2020-08 XS2106042604; LT A+sf; Upgrade

Citi- SPIRE 2019-156  
    
  - EUR 80mn Spire 2019-156 XS2092154975; LT A+sf; Upgrade
Signum Finance II Plc BTPei GSI Inflation Linked CLN 2023
     
  - BTPei GSI Inflation linked CLN 2023 XS0854395539; LT BB+sf;
Affirmed

KEY RATING DRIVERS

SPIRE Transactions (all four transactions)

The upgrade of the CLN and Negative Outlook follow similar rating
action on its sole risk-presenting entity, Citigroup Global Markets
Ltd. (Citi, A+/Negative/F1+) on April 22, 2020. The rating and
Outlook of the SPIRE transactions are directly linked to Citi as
the risk-presenting entity.

Fitch placed the SPIRE transactions' ratings UCO following the UCO
action on Citi. The UCO on Citi has been resolved and the CLN have
been removed from UCO.

SIGNUM Finance II Plc 2016-02

The revision of the Outlook on the CLN to Negative from Stable
follows similar rating action on the weakest-link entity, Standard
Chartered Plc (Standard Chartered; A/Negative/F1) whose Outlook was
revised to Negative on 17 April 2020. All things equal, a downgrade
of Standard Chartered would lead to a downgrade of the notes and as
a result the Outlook on the notes has been revised.

SIGNUM Finance II Plc 2016-02's rating was placed UCO following the
UCO action on Goldman Sachs International (Goldman,
A+/Negative/F1), the additional risk-presenting entity in March
2020. The UCO on Goldman has been resolved with an upgrade on 22
April 2020 and the CLN have been removed from UCO. The upgrade of
Goldman itself does not impact the rating or the Outlook on the
CLN.

Restructuring is applicable to Standard Chartered. Therefore, the
Two-Risk CLN Matrix is applied with a one notch reduction on the
entity affected by the restructuring.

SIGNUM Finance II Plc BTPei Transactions (both transactions)

Fitch placed the SIGNUM II BTPei transactions' ratings UCO
following the UCO on Goldman, the additional risk-presenting entity
in March 2020. The UCO on Goldman has been resolved with an upgrade
of Goldman on 22 April 2020 and the CLN have been removed from UCO.
The upgrade of Goldman itself does not impact the rating or the
Outlook on the CLN. The Outlook on the CLN was already Negative in
line with the weakest link entity Italy (BBB/Negative/F2).

Restructuring is applicable to Italy. Therefore, the Two-Risk CLN
Matrix is applied with a one notch reduction on the entity affected
by the restructuring.

Coronavirus Has Second-hand Effect On Ratings

The CLN ratings are affected by changes in the rating of their
risk-presenting entities. These may be affected by the economic
fallout from the spread of coronavirus.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

SPIRE Transactions (all four transactions)

The Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (LT IDR) of the risk-presenting
entity and its Outlook and or Rating Watch is directly
passed-through to the CLN notes.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

If the risk-presenting entity, Citi, was downgraded by one notch
then the notes' ratings would be downgraded by one notch.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

If the risk-presenting entity Citi was upgraded by one notch then
the notes' ratings would be upgraded by one notch.

SIGNUM Finance II Plc 2016-02

The rating is determined using the two-risk matrix. Restructuring
is applicable for the weakest link entity Standard Chartered and
its LT IDR is reduced by one notch when applying the matrix. For
the additional risk-presenting entity, Goldman, the LT IDR is
used.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

If the weakest link entity, Standard Chartered, was downgraded by
one notch then the notes' ratings would be downgraded by one notch.
If the additional risk-presenting entity, Goldman, was downgraded
by one notch, the notes' ratings would be unchanged. If both were
downgraded by one notch, the notes' ratings would be downgraded by
one notch.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

If the weakest link entity, Standard Chartered, was upgraded by one
notch, the notes' ratings would be upgraded by one notch. If the
additional risk-presenting entity, Goldman, was upgraded by one
notch, the notes' ratings would be upgraded by one notch. If both
were upgraded by one notch, the notes' ratings would be upgraded by
two notches.

SIGNUM Finance II Plc BTPei Transactions (both transactions)

The rating is determined using the two-risk matrix. Restructuring
is applicable for the weakest link entity, Italy, and its LT IDR is
reduced by one notch when applying the matrix. For the additional
risk-presenting entity, Goldman, the LT IDR is used.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

If the weakest link entity, Italy, was downgraded by one notch, the
notes' ratings would be downgraded by one notch. If the additional
risk-presenting entity, Goldman, was downgraded by one notch, the
notes' ratings would be unchanged. If both were downgraded by one
notch, the notes' ratings would be downgraded by one notch.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

If the weakest link entity, Italy, was upgraded by one notch, the
notes' ratings would be upgraded by one notch. If the additional
risk-presenting entity, Goldman, was upgraded by one notch, the
notes' ratings would be upgraded by one notch. If both were
upgraded by one notch, the notes' ratings would be upgraded by two
notches.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance
transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as
the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
are based on historical performance.

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10

Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.

DATA ADEQUACY

Fitch has not conducted any checks on the consistency and
plausibility of the information it has received about the
performance of the asset pools and the transactions. Fitch has not
reviewed the results of any third-party assessment of the asset
portfolio information or conducted a review of origination files as
part of its ongoing monitoring.

Overall and together with the assumptions referred to above,
Fitch's assessment of the information relied upon for the agency's
rating analysis according to its applicable rating methodologies
indicates that it is adequately reliable.



===================
K A Z A K H S T A N
===================

AMANAT INSURANCE: Fitch Affirms B IFS Rating, Alters Outlook to Neg
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised Kazakhstan-based Joint Stock Company
AMANAT's Outlook to Negative from Stable, while affirming the
company's Insurer Financial Strength Rating at 'B'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The rating actions are based on Fitch's current assessment of the
impact of the coronavirus pandemic, including its economic impact,
under a set of rating assumptions. These assumptions were used by
Fitch to develop pro-forma financial metrics for Amanat that are
compared to both rating guidelines defined in its criteria, and
relative to previously established Rating Sensitivities for
Amanat.

The Negative Outlook reflects Amanat's earnings vulnerability to
the economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic. The
affirmation of the rating takes into account Amanat's relatively
resilient risk-adjusted capital position, as measured by Fitch's
Prism FBM, the insurer's adequate buffer above regulatory capital
requirements and resilient liquidity and investment risk ratios
under its rating-case assumptions.

Amanat is mainly focused on the retail motor business and the
insurer's capital has largely been generated through earnings, but
profit in 2020 is likely to be curbed by a sector-wide contraction
in premium volume, reduced underwriting profit margins and some
investment losses under its rating case.

Fitch's pro-forma analysis, which is based on end-2019 figures,
indicates a moderate weakening of Amanat's Prism FBM Score compared
with the actual end-2019 balance sheet as a result of the modelled
investment losses under its rating case. Based on actual 2019
IFRS-based consolidated financial results the Prism FBM score was
'Somewhat Weak', significantly below the 'Strong' score in 2018.

Assumptions for Coronavirus Impact (Rating Case):

Fitch used the following key assumptions, which are designed to
identify areas of vulnerability, in support of the pro-forma rating
analysis:

  -- Decline in key stock market indices by 35% relative to January
1, 2020.

  -- Increase in two-year cumulative high-yield bond default rate
to 13%, applied to current non-investment grade assets, as well as
12% of 'BBB' assets.

  -- For the non-life and reinsurance sectors, a negative impact on
the industry-level accident year loss ratio from COVID-19-related
claims at 3.5pp, partially offset by a favourable impact from the
auto line averaging 1.5pp.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The ratings remain sensitive to a material change in Fitch's
rating-case assumptions with respect to the coronavirus pandemic.
Periodic updates to its assumptions are possible given the rapid
pace of changes in government actions in response to the pandemic,
and the pace with which new information is made available on the
medical aspects of the outbreak. An indication of how ratings would
be expected to be impacted under a set of stress-case assumptions
is included at the end of this section to help frame sensitivities
to a severe downside scenario.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

  - A material adverse change in Fitch's rating assumptions with
respect to the coronavirus impact.

  - The ratings could be downgraded if Amanat's regulatory position
weakens to a non-compliant level and the insurer is unable to
rectify it within a short timeframe.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

  - A material positive change in Fitch's rating assumptions with
respect to the coronavirus impact.

  - A positive rating action is prefaced by Fitch's ability to
reliably forecast the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the
financial profiles of both the Kazakh insurance sector and Amanat.

  - The ratings could be upgraded if AMANAT achieves a
significantly stronger underwriting performance and maintains the
asset quality of its investment portfolio.

Stress Case Sensitivity Analysis

  - Fitch's stress case assumes a 60% stock market decline,
two-year cumulative high-yield bond default rate of 22%, an adverse
non-life industry-level loss ratio impact of 7pp for COVID-19
claims that is partially offset by a favourable 2pp impact for
motor, and a notch-lower sovereign rating.

  - The implied-rating impact under the stress case would a
downgrade of Amanat's IFS by one notch.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Financial Institutions
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

The highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score
of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a
minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their
nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the
entity(ies).

BANK RBK: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable & Affirms 'B-/B' ICRs
------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Bank RBK to stable from
positive and affirmed its 'B-/B' long- and short-term issuer credit
ratings. At the same time, S&P also affirmed the 'kzBB' Kazakhstan
national scale rating.

S&P revised its outlook to stable because the current operating
conditions are making it increasingly difficult for Bank RBK to
maintain its previous pace in recovering problem loans. Moreover,
the prospects for further growth in core earnings and return on
equity (ROE) are now less certain, owing to the economic slowdown
in Kazakhstan.

Bank RBK's management team has made some progress in working out
its on-balance-sheet legacy problem loans and has managed to reduce
the share of problem loans to 18% from 28% over the past nine
months. These are "stage III" and "purchased and originated credit
impaired" loans as classified in International Financial Reporting
Standard 9.

S&P said, "However, further legacy problem loan recovery may take
longer than we initially anticipated, given the deterioration of
the operating environment. We also believe that the bank's loan
book quality may be adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and
related disruptions in economic activity (around 9% of the bank's
net portfolio is related to food and accommodation services and
another 9% to real estate and development). Moreover, there is
additional risk of unexpected credit losses that could stem from
the rapid loan portfolio growth in 2019 (at around 30%) and
persistently high credit risk concentrations (the 20 largest groups
of borrowers constituted 2.5x of total adjusted capital as of Sept.
30, 2019). We furthermore foresee that downside risks in
Kazakhstan's operating environment could weigh on the bank's
business and profitability prospects.

"We think its relatively small size, increased credit costs, and
still substantial cost base, at about 60%, could pressure Bank
RBK's profitability. On a positive note, we believe that the bank's
ability to leverage its relationship with the large Kazakhmys
group, the key asset of the bank's shareholder, could somewhat
offset pressure from the deteriorating operating environment and
support revenue stability. We expect ROE to be around 5.5% over the
next two years and our projected risk-adjusted capital ratio to
approach 5% in the next 18 months, versus 7.5% as of year-end 2018.
But we recognize there are substantial downside risks to those
forecasts and they could worsen if the COVID-19 business crisis
persists longer than experts currently estimate.

"Bank RBK's funding and liquidity are sound and we don't expect
them to deteriorate significantly over the next year. Our
expectations are based on the bank's historically relatively
conservative liquidity management policy, .

"The stable outlook reflects our view that, over the next 12-18
months, the bank will be able to withstand the pressures exerted by
the difficult operating conditions on Bank RBK's asset quality and
capitalization.

"We may take a positive rating action in the next 12-18 months if
we see that the bank is able to sustain progress in working out its
problem loans, with the share of nonperforming loans in the loan
book and cost of risk remaining significantly below the market's
average levels. An upgrade would also require improvement in the
bank's core profitability.

"The likelihood of a negative rating action is currently remote.
However, we may take a negative rating action if we see significant
pressure on the bank's funding and liquidity ratios, or
worse-than-expected deterioration in loan book quality, and
consequently higher provisioning needs than we currently
anticipate."


CENTRAS INSURANCE: Fitch Affirms 'B' IFS Rating, Outlook Now Neg.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised Insurance Company Centras Insurance
Joint-Stock Company's Outlook to Negative from Stable, while
affirming the company's Insurer Financial Strength Rating at 'B'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The rating actions are based on Fitch's current assessment of the
impact of the coronavirus pandemic, including its economic impact.
These assumptions were used by Fitch to develop pro-forma financial
metrics for Centras that are compared with both rating guidelines
defined in its criteria, and relative to previously established
Rating Sensitivities for Centras.

The Negative Outlook reflects significant downside pressure on the
insurer's Prism factor-based capital model score at end-2019 under
Fitch's pro-forma modelling of the coronavirus rating case
assumptions. Based on actual 2019 regulatory reporting the Prism
FBM score remained below 'Somewhat Weak', slightly stronger than
the 2018 score. The affirmation of the rating takes into account
Centras's strong buffer above regulatory capital requirements and
compliance of the insurer's liquidity and investment risk ratios
with the criteria benchmarks for the insurer's rating level after
the pro-forma modelling.

Centras mainly focuses on the retail motor business and the
insurer's capital has been largely generated through earnings.
Fitch expects 2020 profitability to be curbed by a sector-wide
contraction in premium volume, reduced underwriting profit margins
and some investment losses under its rating case.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Assumptions for Coronavirus Impact (Rating Case):

Fitch used the following key assumptions, which are designed to
identify areas of vulnerability, in support of the pro-forma
ratings analysis discussed above:

  -- Decline in key stock market indices by 35% relative to 1
January 2020.

  -- Increase in two-year cumulative high-yield bond default rate
to 13%, applied to current non-investment grade assets, as well as
12% of 'BBB' assets.

  -- For the non-life and reinsurance sectors, a negative impact on
the industry-level accident year loss ratio from COVID-19-related
claims at 3.5pp, partially offset by a favorable impact from the
auto line averaging 1.5pp.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The ratings remain sensitive to a material change in Fitch's
rating-case assumptions with respect to the coronavirus pandemic.
Periodic updates to its assumptions are possible given the rapid
pace of changes in government actions in response to the pandemic,
and the pace with which new information is made available on the
medical aspects of the outbreak. An illustration of how ratings
would be expected to be impacted under a set of stress-case
assumptions is included at the end of this section to help frame
sensitivities to a severe downside scenario.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

  -- A material adverse change in Fitch's rating assumptions with
respect to the coronavirus impact.

  -- Capital depletion based on Fitch's assumed pro-forma figures
and the company's actual figures, a breach of prudential metrics,
or other form of significant regulatory non-compliance.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

  -- A positive rating action is prefaced by Fitch's ability to
reliably forecast the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the
financial profiles of both the Kazakh non-life insurance sector and
Centras.

  -- A sustained improvement in business diversification and in
reserving practices, as indicated by favorable overall reserve
development and improved underwriting performance.

Stress Case Sensitivity Analysis

  -- Fitch's stress case assumes a 60% stock market decline,
two-year cumulative high-yield bond default rate of 22%, high-yield
bond spreads widening by 600bp, more prolonged declines in
government rates, heightened pressure on capital-market access, an
adverse non-life industry-level loss ratio impact of 7pp for
COVID-19 claims partially offset by a favorable impact for motor of
2pp and a notch-lower sovereign rating.

  -- The implied-rating impact under the stress case would be a
downgrade of one notch.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Financial Institutions
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).

FIRST HEARTLAND: S&P Upgrades Long-Term ICR to B, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings raised its long-term issuer credit rating on
First Heartland Jusan Bank (FHJB) to 'B' from 'B-' and affirmed the
'B' short-term issuer credit rating. The outlook is stable. S&P
also raised its Kazakhstan national scale rating on FHJB to 'kzBB+'
from 'kzBB'.

S&P said, "The upgrade reflects our view that First Heartland Jusan
Bank (FHJB) has accumulated significant capital and liquidity
buffers, which should help it to withstand the deterioration in
operating conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and lower oil
prices. We believe that FHJB's new management team has made
progress in de-risking the institution, and recovering legacy
problem assets: Kazakh tenge (KZT)125 billion in 2019, and KZT17.2
billion in 2020. The bank's net income was KZT33.7 billion (net of
one-off items; total net income stood at KZT275 billion) in 2019,
and its regulatory Tier-1 ratio stood at 61.4% at year-end 2019,
significantly above the 8.6% minimum regulatory requirement. Our
risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio stood at 12.5% at the same date.
We expect that FHJB will only show moderate business expansion over
the next 18 months, due to a highly uncertain operating
environment, maintaining its RAC ratio above 10%, which we consider
to be strong.

"Funding and liquidity are currently neutral for our ratings,
although we acknowledge that the bank is maintaining high liquidity
buffers due to the bank's risk-averse strategy. Cash, equivalents,
and sovereign bonds represented a high 58% of the balance sheet as
of Dec. 31, 2019. The broad liquid assets to short-term funding
ratio stood at 75% at the same date. We also note that the bank has
managed to restore its deposit base, as we see gradual growth in
core customer deposits over 2019 and at the beginning of 2020. The
loan to deposit ratio remains low, at 53% as of Dec. 31, 2019.

"Despite the progress made in the course of the bank's
restructuring, we continue to view the new management team's track
record as limited. We consider that the bank may face challenges in
its strategy implementation in currently challenging operating
conditions. Therefore, we still see the bank's weak business
position as a rating constraint. Under our base-case assumption,
FHJB is likely to maintain a lower risk appetite than domestic
peers, and will continue to focus on servicing the financial needs
of Nazarbayev University (NU) and a related educational cluster in
Kazakhstan. We believe is supportive for the bank's overall
business profile, allowing it to develop treasury services and
salary projects over the medium term.

"Our assessment of the bank's risk position remains unchanged,
despite significant progress in asset recoveries and low cost of
risk for 2019. This is because gross problem loans (by which we
mean stage 3 loans under IFRS 9 classification and POCI loans)
remain very high at 73% of customer loans, although they are mostly
represented by legacy assets and are 84% provisioned.

"The stable outlook reflects our view that the current capital
buffers, significant liquidity cushion, and risk-averse strategy
should sustain the bank's overall credit risk profile over the next
12-18 months.

"We could take a negative rating action within the next 12-18
months, if we believed that bank's capitalization had notably
deteriorated, with our RAC ratio declining below 10%, and business
position remaining a weakness. This could happen, for example, if
we saw that the bank was facing higher-than-expected provisioning
needs, or if it pursued a more aggressive capital policy implying
higher dividend payouts."

A positive rating action is unlikely at this stage, as it would
require stabilization of economic and operating conditions and
significant decline in the bank's gross nonperforming loans ratio,
with the bank maintaining a low risk appetite and showing a track
record of sustainable earnings generation capacity.


KASPI BANK: S&P Affirms 'BB-/B' ICRs, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term issuer
credit ratings on Kaspi Bank JSC. The outlook is stable.

S&P affirmed the rating because Kaspi Bank has entered this crisis
in a good position to withstand the challenging operating
environment in Kazakhstan provoked by COVID-19 containment measures
and expected economic slowdown in 2020 exacerbated by low oil
prices.

Kaspi Bank has well-developed risk management practices that should
allow the bank to contain the pressure on its asset quality. At
year-end 2019, problem loans stood at about 11% versus 20% on
average for the system. The bank's sound retail franchise should
support its historically good earnings generation capacity--and
ultimately its capitalization. Moreover, S&P thinks that Kaspi
Bank's sound retail franchise and leading position in consumer
financial services and payment solutions in Kazakhstan will
continue to support its business stability and revenue, through a
significant portion of fee and commission income (58% of operating
revenue at end-2019).

S&P said, "However, we anticipate that revenue in 2020 might
decline up to 10% on the back of the local demand shock. We also
foresee a spike in credit costs to around 8%-9% of total loans,
from around 3% last year. We note that, although the bank has
historically operated with a relatively high cost of risk, that
cost has always been properly incorporated into the product price,
allowing the bank to deliver sustainable profitability over the
economic cycle, including during economic slowdowns like the one in
2015-2016, unlike many other local banks. We expect that the bank
will remain profitable with return on equity of around 19%-23% and
our risk-adjusted capital ratio staying at 6.5%-6.9% over the next
two years. We also believe that Kaspi Bank will continue operating
with significant buffers to regulatory capital requirements. As of
March 1, 2020, the Tier 1 ratio was 13.1% and the total capital
adequacy ratio was 16.1%, compared with the regulatory minimums of
6.5% and 8.0%, respectively.

"We continue to see Kaspi Bank as moderately systemically important
for the local banking sector, due to considerable market shares in
unsecured consumer loans and retail deposits (approximately 31% and
16%, respectively, as of March 1, 2020).

"We expect Kaspi Bank's funding base to remain stable in the next
12-18 months. It is dominated by retail deposits (94% of total
deposits and 81% of overall funding at the end of 2019),
differentiating the bank from domestic peers that are mostly funded
by concentrated corporate deposits. The dominance of retail
deposits helps keep deposit concentration lower than the system
average (the largest 20 depositors account for less than 10% of
total deposits, compared with around 30% average for the system).
Kaspi Bank's customer deposits have proved quite stable over the
past two years, while some Kazakh banks have suffered from
significant withdrawals of customer funds, especially by
state-related institutions. Kaspi Bank's deposit funding is
complemented by domestic senior unsecured and subordinated bonds of
Kazakhstani tenge 216 billion, which accounted for about 11.5% of
its funding base at the end of 2019.

"We also view Kaspi Bank's liquidity position as sound. The bank
has maintained positive cumulative liquidity gaps on all time
horizons over the past two years. We expect the bank will keep its
ample liquidity buffers, given it has no large wholesale debt
repayments due in the next two years. At the end of 2019, net broad
liquid assets covered short-term customer deposits by around 57%.

"The outlook is stable because of our view that Kaspi Bank will
retain its sound earnings power, thanks to its solid market
position in Kazakhstan's retail banking segment. This should allow
the bank to withstand the pressure from the expected increase in
credit costs in the challenging operating environment.

"We could lower our rating on Kaspi Bank in the next 12 months if
its earnings weakened materially, which could result from a severe
cut of the bank's revenue, a higher cost of risk than we
anticipate, or other unexpected losses. In addition, pressure on
the bank's funding and liquidity ratios would also trigger a
downgrade."

An upgrade of Kaspi Bank appears remote in the next 12 months.
However, it could happen in the longer term if the bank
demonstrated the ability to maintain strong earnings while
simultaneously sustaining asset quality ratios that compare
favorably with local peers.


KAZAKHMYS INSURANCE: Fitch Affirms BB- IFS Rating, Outlook Now Neg.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised JSC Kazakhmys Insurance Company
(Kazakhstan)'s Outlook to Negative from Stable and affirmed the
Insurer Financial Strength Rating at 'BB-'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The rating actions are based on Fitch's current assessment of the
impact of the coronavirus pandemic, including its economic impact,
under a set of rating assumptions. These assumptions were used by
Fitch to develop pro-forma financial metrics for Kazakhmys Ins that
are compared with both rating guidelines defined in its criteria,
and relative to previously established Rating Sensitivities for
Kazakhmys Ins.

The Negative Outlook reflects Kazakhmys Ins' very high dependence
on outward reinsurance coverage purchased abroad (88% of premiums
written were ceded abroad in 2019), which may expose the insurer's
underwriting result and capital to higher foreign currency
(FC)-driven volatility due to the economic implications of the
coronavirus pandemic. A partially mitigating factor is a meaningful
surplus of FC-denominated investment assets over FC-denominated net
insurance liabilities.

Fitch's pro-forma analysis, which is based on end-2019 figures,
indicates a moderate weakening of Kazakhmys Ins' Prism FBM Score
compared with the actual end-2019 balance sheet, driven by
investment and loss ratio stresses.

The affirmation of the ratings reflects Kazakhmys Ins' good-quality
investment portfolio, comfortable liquidity relative to net
technical reserves and a strong risk-adjusted capital position, as
measured by Fitch's Prism factor-based capital model score.

Assumptions for Coronavirus Impact (Rating Case):

Fitch used the following key assumptions, which are designed to
identify areas of vulnerability, in support of the pro-forma
ratings analysis discussed above:

  -- Decline in key stock market indices by 35% relative to January
1, 2020.

  -- Increase in two-year cumulative high-yield bond default rate
to 13%, applied to current non-investment grade assets, as well as
12% of 'BBB' assets.

  -- For the non-life and reinsurance sectors, a negative impact on
the industry-level accident year loss ratio from COVID-19-related
claims at 3.5pp, partially offset by a favorable impact from the
auto line averaging 1.5pp.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The ratings remain sensitive to a material change in Fitch's
rating-case assumptions with respect to the coronavirus pandemic.
Periodic updates to its assumptions are possible given the rapid
pace of changes in government actions in response to the pandemic,
and the pace with which new information is made available on the
medical aspects of the outbreak. An indication of how ratings would
be expected to be impacted under a set of stress-case assumptions
is included at the end of this section to help frame sensitivities
to a severe downside scenario.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

  - A material adverse change in Fitch's rating assumptions with
respect to the coronavirus impact.

  - The ratings could be downgraded if Kazakhmys Ins's underwriting
losses start to erode capital.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

  - A material positive change in Fitch's rating assumptions with
respect to the coronavirus impact.

  - A positive rating action is prefaced by Fitch's ability to
reliably forecast the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the
financial profiles of both the Kazakh insurance sector and
Kazakhmys Ins.

  - The ratings could be upgraded if Kazakhmys Ins reduces its
dependence on reinsurance, provided that the company repositions
its business mix while maintaining its asset risk.

Stress Case Sensitivity Analysis

  - Fitch's stress case assumes a 60% stock market decline,
two-year cumulative high-yield bond default rate of 22%, an adverse
non-life industry-level loss ratio impact of 7pp for COVID-19
claims that is partially offset by a favorable 2pp for motor, and a
notch-lower sovereign rating.

  - The implied-rating impact under the stress case would be a
downgrade of Kazakhmys Ins' IFS by up to two notches.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Financial Institutions
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

The highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score
of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a
minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their
nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the
entity(ies).

SB ALFA-BANK: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable & Affirms 'BB-/B' ICR
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings said it revised its outlook to stable from
positive and affirmed its 'BB-/B' long- and short-term issuer
credit ratings on SB Alfa-Bank JSC. At the same time, S&P Global
Ratings affirmed its 'kzA' Kazakhstan national scale rating on the
bank.

S&P said, "The outlook revision reflects our view that current
challenging operating conditions from the economic slowdown in
Kazakhstan will likely put pressure on SB Alfa-Bank's asset quality
in the medium term as well as on core earnings and return on
equity.

"We believe the bank has a better risk management framework
compared with local peers and view positively the SB Alfa-Bank's
good underwriting standards, knowledge transfer from its parent,
and low share of the loan book in total assets (43% as of March 31,
2020, while 50% are in liquid assets, mainly cash and cash
equivalents and government securities). However, we think that the
bank's loan book quality might still be adversely affected by the
COVID-19 pandemic and related disruptions in economic activity
(about 30% of the gross portfolio relates to retail loans, and
another 15% to small and midsize enterprises). Unexpected credit
losses could stem from the rapid loan portfolio growth of 26% in
2019 and credit risk concentrations that, despite being lower than
local peers, are still high in an international context (the top 20
largest groups of borrowers constituted 1.6x of total adjusted
capital as of Dec. 31, 2019).

"We also foresee that downside risks in Kazakhstan's operating
environment could weigh on profitability prospects and subsequently
on capitalization. Our base-case forecast envisages increased
provisioning needs in 2020-2021, only modest loan book growth in
2020 followed by a gradual recovery of growth in 2021-2022, and no
dividends. These assumptions, together with no expected capital
injection, lead our projected risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio to
decline closer to 4.0%-5.0% in 2020-2021 compared with 6.5% as of
year-end 2019.

"We continue considering SB Alfa-Bank a strategically important
subsidiary to Alfa banking group. We think that it will continue
benefiting from a sound liquidity cushion; well-established
managerial, operational, and risk-management links with and
potential extraordinary financial support from the group. This all
somewhat mitigates risks from unfavorable market distortions in
Kazakhstan's banking sector.

"The stable outlook reflects our view that, over the next 12-18
months, the bank will withstand pressure from difficult operating
conditions on asset quality and capitalization.

"We would consider a positive rating action in the next 12-18
months if the effect of deteriorated macroeconomic fundamentals on
the bank's asset quality is manageable and the share of
nonperforming loans in the loan book and cost of risk remain
significantly below market averaged.

"The likelihood of a negative rating action is currently remote.
However, we would consider one if we observed worse-than-expected
deterioration in loan book quality, and consequently high
additional provisioning needs translated in additional pressure on
the bank's capitalization associated with a decline in S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted RAC ratio to below 3%."




===================
L U X E M B O U R G
===================

EUROPEAN OPTICAL: S&P Cuts ICR to 'B-', Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit and senior
secured debt ratings on European Optical Manufacturing S.a.r.l.,
Rodenstock's parent company, to 'B-'.

S&P said, "We estimate that Rodenstock will face a significant drop
in demand amid the COVID-19 outbreak, which will result in lower
EBITDA and higher debt leverage in 2020.  We believe Rodenstock is
facing a significant drop in demand because of local regulation in
its core markets imposing the closure of shops or social
distancing. We anticipate that lower demand will result in 2020
EBITDA significantly lower than in 2019 and negative free operating
cash flow (FOCF). Rodenstock has taken several measures to mitigate
the impact of lower demand, including using subsidies for employees
and delaying non-urgent expenses and investments. All measures are
temporary and Rodenstock can remediate them as soon as the company
has clear visibility on demand. We expect demand to gradually
resume after the COVID-19 outbreak, thanks to the resilience of
demand for ophthalmic lenses to economic cycles, because we
consider lenses to be a medical need. As a consequence of
significantly lower activity, we forecast that Rodenstock's
adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio will peak above 10x in 2020."

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak. S&P said,
"Some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak about
midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic
and credit implications. We believe the measures adopted to contain
COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession. As the
situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates
accordingly."

S&P said, "We estimate that Rodenstock will be able to meet its
short-term financial commitments thanks to external sources of
funding provided by its stakeholders.  Rodenstock had about EUR31
million of cash available at the end of February 2020, in addition
to EUR20 million available under the revolving credit facility
(RCF), which is now drawn in full. Considering the negative effect
of lockdowns and of swings in liquidity needs associated with this
situation, in our view the existing liquidity might not be
sufficient for Rodenstock to meet its short-term commitments in the
next few quarters. However, the company has indicated to us that
these issues will be resolved by new funding that is expected to be
secured in the next few weeks.

"We forecast that Rodenstock could breach its springing financial
covenant should it fail to secure fresh funding.   Rodenstock's
debt documentation does not include any covenant on the EUR395
million term loan B but there is a springing covenant on the EUR20
million RCF when more than 30% of it is drawn. The covenant states
that senior secured net leverage shall not exceed 5.5x. This
covenant is subject to quarterly testing, and given the expected
fall in EBITDA, we see a risk the covenant test might not be met at
end-June 2020, putting pressure on liquidity. That said, we
forecast that Rodenstock will use fresh funding to prevent this
situation from developing.

"The stable outlook reflects our view that Rodenstock will be able
to manage its liquidity requirements in the next 12 months thanks
to the fund-raising steps it is currently taking. In our base case,
we forecast a significant decline in EBITDA this year that puts
pressure on the company's credit metrics and will lead to negative
FOCF in 2020.

"We could lower the rating if demand for ophthalmic lenses does not
resume after the COVID-19 outbreak and if Rodenstock's debt
leverage ratio deteriorates beyond our expectation for a prolonged
period, such that we consider its capital structure unsustainable.
This would also likely trigger higher-than-anticipated pressure on
liquidity.

"We could also take a negative action if unforeseen circumstances
prevent the company from completing the fresh funding that it is
currently pursuing.

"We could raise our rating if we see a strong improvement in demand
after the COVID-19 outbreak and if we anticipate Rodenstock will
generate an EBITDA margin of about 21%-22% on a sustained basis.
Under this scenario, we also expect the company will post FFO cash
interest coverage sustainably exceeding 2.0x, combined with a
gradual annual deleveraging trend."


LSF10 XL: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3 & Alters Outlook to Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the corporate family
rating of the German manufacturer of wall-building and insulation
materials LSF10 XL Investments S.a r.l. to B3 from B2 and the
probability of default rating has been downgraded to B3-PD from
B2-PD. Concurrently, Moody's has downgraded the instrument ratings
on the EUR1,674 million senior secured term loans B and EUR175
million senior secured revolving credit facility issued by LSF10 XL
Bidco SCA and guaranteed by LSF10 XL Investments S.a r.l. to B3
from B2. The rating outlook on both entities has been changed to
stable from negative.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented, and Moody's views
them as a social risk factor under its assessment of ESG
considerations.

Its rating action reflects Moody's belief that Xella will face
challenging operating conditions across Europe, where the company
generates almost all of its revenues. Moody's expects a deep
recession in Europe in 2020 that will diminish demand for Xella's
products. Lockdowns and social distancing are disrupting
construction activity and supply chains, raising the risk of
project delays and cancellations. Moreover, Moody's anticipates
that the eventual pick-up in construction activity once the
lockdowns are lifted will only be gradual and companies with large
exposure to new-build construction such as Xella will be more
affected by a drop-in business activity.

Consequently, Xella's already significant financial leverage
(Moody's adjusted gross debt/ EBITDA of around 6.8x in 2019), which
was already high for the previous B2 rating, will likely
deteriorate in 2020 and will remain elevated also in 2021. And even
on a net leverage basis (Moody's adjusted net debt/ EBITDA was 5.6x
in 2019), the metrics will likely exceed the 6x threshold in the
next 12-24 months.

However, Xella's rating is supported by its solid market position
across Building Materials and Insulation business units and its
largely variable cost structure. But even more important, the
rating is supported by the company's strong liquidity position
before the virus outbreak. Moody's expects that the company's
EUR331million of cash on the balance sheet is sufficiently large to
cover the eventual negative cash flow generation this year and also
the working capital build-up in the first half of 2021. The EUR175
million RCF, fully undrawn at the end of 2019, provides additional
liquidity buffer, although the covenant headroom in case of over
35% drawdown will be tight and may require negotiations with key
lenders later this year.

RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK

The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that the company's
solid liquidity would allow it to cushion the earnings and cash
flow setback in 2020 while the recovery in the following year would
enable credit metrics to return to metrics more commensurate with
its B3 rating.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS - UP

Positive rating pressure could arise if:

  - Moody's adjusted gross debt/EBITDA declines sustainably below
6x;

  - Moody's adjusted retained cash flow/ net debt in high single
digit

  - Positive free cash flow generation with FCF/ debt approaching
mid-single digit

WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATINGS -- DOWN

Conversely, negative rating pressure could arise if:

  - Moody's adjusted gross debt/EBITDA increases sustainably above
8x;

  - Moody's adjusted EBITA/ Interest below 1x;

  - Substantial deterioration in liquidity profile as a result of
large negative FCF, aggressive shareholder distributions or M&A.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATION

In the loss-given-default assessment for Xella, Moody's ranks pari
passu EUR1,674 million seniors secured TLB and the EUR175 million
RCF, which share the same collateral package, mainly consisting of
share pledges over operating subsidiaries of the Xella group
accounting for at least 80% of the group's assets and EBITDA. The
instruments are rated B3 in line with the corporate family rating.
Moody's is using a standard recovery rate of 50% due to the
covenant lite package.

LIQUIDITY

The liquidity profile of the company is good. This is reflected in
EUR331 million of cash at the year-end 2019 and full availability
under the EUR175 million RCF. Moody's believes that Xella's high
cash position can cover the eventual negative free cash flow in
2020 even in case of a very large drop in earnings with the RCF
providing additional liquidity buffer. Xella has a covenant lite
debt structure with a spring net leverage covenant of 8.25x only
applicable to the revolver if it is drawn by more than 35%.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Building
Materials published in May 2019.

PROFILE

Headquartered in Luxembourg, LSF10 XL Investments S.a r.l. (Xella)
is the holding company of the Xella group. Xella is a leading
European multi-brand manufacturer of modern wall-building and
insulation materials. Xella was acquired by certain Lone Star Funds
in a secondary leveraged buyout in April 2017. In 2019 the company
reported revenues of EUR1.6 billion.

MOTION FINCO: Moody's Rates New EUR500MM Senior Secured Notes 'B1'
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's has assigned a B1 rating (under review for possible
downgrade) to the proposed issuance size of EUR 500 million senior
secured notes due in 2025 to be issued by Motion Finco S.A.R.L. All
the existing ratings of the group, including the B2 Corporate
Family Rating and the B2-PD Probability of Default Rating assigned
to Motion Midco Limited, remain unchanged and under review for
downgrade. Outlook on all ratings is under review.

The new notes will rank pari passu with the existing senior secured
notes at Merlin Entertainment Limited and the term loans borrowed
by Motion Finco S.A.R.L, and benefit from the same guarantor
package and security. Moody's understands that the guarantors of
the new notes are substantially the same as for the existing loans
and notes and represent at least 80% of EBITDA. In line with the
existing secured credit facilities, the security will only include
pledges over material intercompany receivables of obligors, shares
in each obligor and material company and bank accounts of each
obligor. The senior secured credit facilities, including the
proposed notes, and Merlin Entertainment Limited senior secured
bonds, which were previously unsecured but were granted security
following Merlin's acquisition by its current shareholders in
November 2019, are rated B1 - one notch above the CFR as they
benefit from the cushion provided by structurally and legally
subordinated senior unsecured notes issued by Motion Bondco DAC,
which are rated two notches below the CFR at Caa1. Moody's
incorrectly referred to Merlin Entertainment Limited senior secured
bonds as unsecured in its press releases dated 18 November 2019 and
April 7, 2020.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The planned issuance will strengthen the group's liquidity which is
under pressure following the closure of most of the company's
attractions. However, the additional debt will add approximately
0.5x to the company's already high leverage, delay the anticipated
deleveraging, and increase the interest burden. Moody's estimates
the company's adjusted leverage at around 7.7x as of December
2019.

All ratings remain under review, prompted by the closure of
Merlin's attractions in most of the geographies the company
operates, including Europe, the US and Australia, and will result
in a sharp decline in revenue and free cash flows in 2020.

Moody's base case assumptions are that the coronavirus pandemic
will result in a shutdown of the majority of the company's
attractions for three months, with most of the attractions
operating again from mid-June to July. However, the pace of
recovery may be slow in the first few months after opening and
uneven across different countries depending on social distancing
measures, consumer sentiment, and travel restrictions. There are
also high risks of more challenging downside scenarios. For
instance, the recent state of emergency in Japan, which was
declared amid the second wave of the virus spread, led to closure
of LEGOLAND Japan, which had been re-opened a few weeks prior to
that.

The outlook is rating under review. The review that was initiated
on April 7, 2020 and is still unresolved will focus on (i) the
current market situation with a review of travel and leisure
restrictions and visitation levels across Merlin's key markets,
(ii) the liquidity measures taken by the company and their impact
on the company's balance sheet, and (iii) other measures being
taken by the company to reduce its cost base and protect cash flow.
The proposed transaction would have a positive impact in supporting
the company's liquidity.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL & GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety.

Governance risks taken into consideration in Merlin's credit
profile include a private-equity sponsored structure that often
results in higher tolerance for leverage and a greater appetite for
M&A and dividends. Nevertheless, Moody's views Merlin's ownership
structure to have a longer investment horizon and potentially more
supportive compared to a typical LBO. KIRKBI, which owns 50% of the
company, is Merlin's partner and a major investor in the company
for almost 15 years. KIRKBI has been increasingly relying on Merlin
as one of the major avenues to promote its LEGO brand and hence is
interested in Merlin's long-term development. In addition, CPP
Investments and Blackstone, whose investment in Merlin is through
its longer dated Core fund, are both long-term oriented
shareholders.

LIQUIDITY

Merlin's liquidity is adequate. The rating agency estimates that
the proposed issuance will bring the company's total pro-forma
liquidity to around GBP980 million as of March, which should
provide the group with enough resources to withstand the
pandemic-driven shutdown, even if it continues through the key
summer months.

The company's cash flow remains characterized by material seasonal
swings, with nearly all earnings and net inflows generated in the
second and third quarters. Cash flow from operations tends to be
negative in the first quarter because of lower earnings and
seasonal capital investment, although there is a working capital
inflow in the quarter, in part owing to prepayments by
ticket-holders for activities during the summer.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Upward rating pressure would not arise until the coronavirus
outbreak is brought under control, travel restrictions are lifted,
and travel flows return to more normal levels. Over time, Moody's
could upgrade the company's rating if Merlin's Moody's adjusted
Debt/EBITDA decline toward 7x while recovering its number of
visitors and EBITA margins to pre-crisis levels.

Moody's could downgrade Merlin's ratings if confinement measures
and travel restrictions extend through or beyond the peak summer
season, leading to further deterioration in credit metrics and
liquidity.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Service Industry published in October 2016.



=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================

BOELS TOPHOLDING: Moody's Affirms B1 CFR, Alters Outlook to Neg.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has changed the outlook for Boels
Topholding B.V. to negative from stable and affirmed the B1
corporate family rating, B1-PD probability of default and B1
instrument ratings of its EUR1,611 million senior secured term loan
B and EUR200 million senior secured revolving credit facility.
Subsequent to its rating action, Moody's will withdraw all of
Boels' ratings for business reasons.

"Boels' change of outlook reflects the weaker macroeconomic outlook
that is likely to occur following the coronavirus outbreak and its
expectations that this will negatively weigh on the company's
earnings. The uncertainty about the depth and duration of this
crisis increases the downside risk in the short to medium-term."
said Florent Egonneau, Assistant Vice President and Moody's lead
analyst for Boels. "The rating affirmation reflects the favorable
geographical exposure to countries where there are less restrictive
lockdowns and confinement measures. This allows the company to
maintain a high level of revenues during the coronavirus crisis."
added Mr. Egonneau.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented.

The equipment rental sector is one of the sectors affected by the
shock given restrictions on movement in some European countries and
the related temporary halt of construction sites and other
projects. More specifically, Boels benefits from the less
restrictive lockdown measures put in place in its core markets,
which favorably positions the company relative to its European
peers that are exposed to southern Europe. Moody's regards the
coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its ESG framework,
given the substantial implications for public health and safety.

During the lockdown period, Moody's estimates that Boels' revenues
will maintain a relatively high level of revenues in the range of
70% to 80%. The degree of business disruption varies widely between
countries, with Netherlands, Sweden and German (c. 70% of total
revenues in 2018) running close to normal levels, in contrast with
Belgium. However, the nature of the coronavirus crisis has made it
difficult to adapt the level of capex in the short-term. As such,
capex spending for 2020 remains relatively high at EUR140-150
million, compared to the EUR284 million initially budgeted.

Moody's expects that Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA will
temporarily spike to around 5.0x in 2020 under its base case, which
assumes that revenues will decrease by c.10% as a result of
coronavirus, before returning below 4.5x in 2021. Under this
scenario, Moody's expects Boels' free cash flow to remain largely
positive in the range of EUR100-120 million in 2020.

OUTLOOK RATIONALE

The negative outlook reflects the downside risk to credit metrics
and liquidity linked to uncertainties on (i) the length of the
crisis and its medium-term impact on the construction sector and
(ii) the future lockdown approach in the company's core markets.
The outlook assumes a decrease of capex spending to 10% of revenues
in 2021 and a conservative financial policy geared towards
deleveraging in the next 18-24 months.

LIQUIDITY

Moody's considers Boels' liquidity to be adequate. As of 16th April
2020, the company had EUR215 million cash on balance sheet,
reflecting the drawdown of EUR190 million on its revolving credit
facility. Moody's expectations of positive free cash flow in 2020
should support the company's liquidity in the short-term.

As part of the documentation, the RCF contains a maintenance
financial covenant based on net leverage set at 6.5x and tested on
a quarterly basis. Moody's expects Boels to maintain adequate
headroom under this covenant. A breach of this covenant would
constitute an event of default.

Moody's has decided to withdraw the ratings for its own business
reasons.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Equipment and
Transportation Rental Industry published in April 2017.

COMPANY PROFILE

Founded by Pierre Boels Sr in 1977, Boels is the leading player in
the Dutch equipment rental market and the number two in Europe with
the acquisition of Cramo. The company operates a network of over
700 branches across 17 countries. Pro-forma for the Cramo
acquisition, Boels generated EUR1,265 million of revenues and
EUR394 million of EBITDA on a combined basis. Pierre Boels Jr is
its Chief Executive Officer since 1996 and owns 100% of the
company.

JUBILEE CLO 2015-XVI: S&P Affirms B- (sf) Rating on Cl. F Notes
---------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings raised its credit rating on the class C-R notes
in Jubilee CLO 2015-XVI B.V. At the same time, S&P affirmed its
ratings on all other classes of notes.

The rating actions follow the application of our global corporate
CLO criteria and its credit and cash flow analysis of the
transaction based on the March 2020 trustee report.

S&P's ratings address timely payment of interest and ultimate
payment of principal on the class A1-R, A2-R, B1-R, and B2-R notes
and the ultimate payment of interest and principal on the class
C-R, D-R, E-R, and F notes.

Since the refinancing date in December 2017, S&P notes that:

-- The weighted-average rating of the portfolio remains at 'B'.

-- The portfolio has become more diversified, as the obligor
diversity measure (ODM) increased to 105 from 72.

-- The weighted-average life of the portfolio decreased to 4.80
years from 5.35 years.

  Portfolio Benchmarks
  Current Previous review
  SPWARF 2,919.40 N/A
  Default rate dispersion (%) 6.39 6.45
  Weighted-average life (years) 4.80 5.35
  Obligor diversity measure 105 72
  Industry diversity measure 18.92 17.85
  Regional diversity measure 1.22 1.41
  
  SPWARF--S&P Global Ratings weighted-average rating factor.
  N/A--Not applicable.  

On the cash flow side, S&P notes that:

-- The reinvestment period for the transaction ended in December
2019, and S&P expects the transaction to begin deleveraging.

-- No class of notes is deferring interest.

-- All coverage tests are passing as of the March 2020 trustee
report.

-- Despite a reduction in par of EUR0.19 million since December
2017 (according to our analysis), the level of credit enhancement
for each note has remained largely stable.

-- The reported portfolio weighted-average spread increased to
3.98% from 3.81%.

-- The portfolio's weighted-average recovery increased at each
rating level.

  Transaction Key Metrics
                                        Current    Previous review
  Total collateral amount (mil. EUR)*   396.97     397.16
  Defaulted assets (mil. EUR)             0.00       6.53
  No. of performing obligors            150.00     107.00
  Portfolio weighted-average rating       B          B
  'CCC' assets (%)                       10.05       2.77
  'AAA' WARR (%)                         37.63      34.26
  WAS (%)                                 3.98       3.87
  Fixed-rate assets (%)                   3.70       0.99

*Performing assets plus cash and expected recoveries on defaulted
assets.
WARR--Weighted-average recovery rate.
WAS--Weighted-average spread.  

Following these developments, our model results show that the class
B1-R, B2-R, C-R, D-R, and E-R notes benefit from a level of credit
enhancement that is typically commensurate with higher rating
levels than those previously assigned.

S&P said "In light of the rapidly shifting credit dynamics within
CLO portfolios due to continuing rating actions (downgrades,
CreditWatch placements, and outlook changes) on speculative-grade
corporate loan issuers, and in line with paragraph 15 of our global
corporate CLO criteria, we have considered a minimum cushion
between the break-even default rate (BDR) and scenario default rate
(SDR) of 2.3%. We based our application of a 2.3% cushion on the
amount of assets in the 'CCC' rating category, those rated 'B-' and
below, and the proportion of ratings that are on CreditWatch or
have a negative outlook.

"Following our credit and cash flow analysis, and the application
of our minimum BDR-SDR cushion, we have raised our rating on the
class C-R notes to 'A+ (sf)' from 'A (sf)', and we have affirmed
our ratings on all other classes of notes.

"Our model result for the class D-R notes indicates a passing
rating one notch above 'BBB', with a BDR-SDR cushion greater than
2.30%. We have however decided to affirm our 'BBB (sf)' rating on
the class D-R notes as we await for the issuer to amortize its
liabilities. Despite the transaction having entered its
amortization phase, the manager can still reinvest unscheduled
redemption proceeds and sale proceeds from credit-impaired and
credit-improved assets. Such reinvestments (as opposed to repayment
of the liabilities) may have a negative impact on these notes'
level of credit enhancement.

"Our model-based analysis on the class F notes shows that their
credit enhancement is typically in line with a 'CCC+' rating.
However, following the application of our "Criteria For Assigning
'CCC+', 'CCC', 'CCC-', And 'CC' Ratings," published Oct. 1, 2012,
we have affirmed our 'B- (sf)' rating on the class F notes." In
particular, we considered the following factors:

-- The level of credit enhancement, which for the class F notes is
6.89%.

-- The cushion between the value of the class F par value triggers
and the level set at the transaction's closing. This stands at
2.68%.

-- S&P's model generated a portfolio default rate at the 'B-'
rating level of 27.1%. If we were to consider a default rate of
3.1% for 4.80 years, it would result in a default rate of 14.9%.

-- How the break-even default rates at 'B-' compare against the
lowest scenario default rate generated by the CDO Evaluator. This
provides a cushion of 4.50%.

-- The relative level of portfolio diversity, as measured by S&P's
industry diversity measure (IDM). This currently stands at 18.92 as
per CDO Evaluator.

-- Counterparty, operational, and legal risks are adequately
mitigated in line with S&P's criteria.

Scenario analysis

S&P said, "In addition to our standard analysis, to provide an
indication of how rising pressures among speculative-grade
corporates could affect our ratings on European CLO transactions,
we have also included the sensitivity of the ratings on the class
A-R to E-R notes to five of the 10 hypothetical scenarios we looked
at in our recent publication."

The results are as follows:

-- Increase in 'CCC' category asset exposure to 15% and 25%: there
was no rating migration on any of the tranches in the 15% 'CCC'
scenario or in the 25% 'CCC' scenario.

-- 10% portfolio default, assuming a weighted-average recovery
rate at the 'AAA' rating level: the class B1-R and B2-R notes would
be downgraded by one notch and the class E-R notes by three
notches.

-- All the underlying issuers in the portfolio had their ratings
lowered by one notch: the class B1-R, B2-R, and E-R notes would be
downgraded by two notches and the class C-R and D-R notes by one
notch.

-- 10% decline in the weighted average recovery rate assumptions:
the class B1-R and B2-R notes would be downgraded by two notches,
the class E-R notes by one notch, and the class F notes by three
notches.

-- S&P intends this scenario analysis to be broadly representative
of how its ratings may move in a variety of downturn scenarios.
However, the estimation approach it has used includes some
simplifying assumptions and limitations.

-- As S&P's rating analysis makes additional considerations before
assigning ratings in the 'CCC' category, and it would assign a 'B-'
rating if the criteria for assigning a 'CCC' category rating are
not met, it has not included the above scenario analysis results
for the class F notes.

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak. S&P said,
"Some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak about
midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic
and credit implications. We believe the measures adopted to contain
COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession. As the
situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates
accordingly."

Jubilee CLO 2015-XVI is a cash flow CLO transaction that
securitizes loans granted to primarily speculative-grade corporate
firms. The transaction was refinanced in December 2017 and is
managed by Alcentra Ltd. S&P ratings address timely payment of
interest and ultimate payment of principal on the class A1-R, A2-R,
B1-R, and B2-R notes and the ultimate payment of interest and
principal on the class C-R, D-R, E-R, and F notes.

  Ratings List

  Class   Amount        Rating   Credit enhancement
         (mil. EUR)  To      From   (%) as at refi date (%)
                                                     Interest rate
  A1-R   225.00   AAA (sf)   AAA (sf)  42.06  42.09
                                Three/six-month EURIBOR plus 0.80%
  A2-R   5.00     AAA (sf)   AAA (sf)  42.06  42.09
                                                             1.10%
  B1-R   19.00 AA (sf)    AA (sf)   27.95  27.99
                                Three/six-month EURIBOR plus 1.05%
  B2-R   37.00    AA (sf)    AA (sf)   27.95  27.99
                                                             1.85%
  C-R    25.00    A+ (sf)    A (sf)    21.66  21.69
                                Three/six-month EURIBOR plus 1.45%
  D-R    20.00    BBB (sf)   BBB (sf)  16.62  16.66
                                Three/six-month EURIBOR plus 2.30%
  E-R    25.60    BB (sf)    BB (sf)   10.17  10.21
                                Three/six-month EURIBOR plus 4.60%
  F      13.00    B- (sf)    B- (sf)   6.89   6.94
                                Three/six-month EURIBOR plus 6.85%


[*] Fitch Takes Action on 3 Dutch Non-Conforming Deals
------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has taken various actions on three Dutch
non-conforming transactions, Eurosail-NL 2007-1 B.V., Eurosail-NL
2007-2 B.V. and EMF-NL Prime 2008-A B.V.

The social and market disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak
and related containment measures was one of the factors leading to
the negative rating actions.

Eurosail-NL 2007-2 B.V.     

  - Class A XS0327216569; LT A-sf; Downgrade

  - Class B XS0327217880; LT Bsf; Downgrade

  - Class C XS0327218425; LT CCCsf; Affirmed

  - Class D1 XS0327219159; LT CCCsf; Affirmed

  - Class M XS0330526772; LT BB+sf; Downgrade

Eurosail-NL 2007-1 B.V.     

  - Class A XS0307254259; LT A+sf; Affirmed

  - Class B XS0307256114; LT Asf; Upgrade

  - Class C XS0307257435; LT BB+sf; Upgrade

  - Class D XS0307260496; LT CCCsf; Affirmed

  - Class E1 XS0307265370; LT CCCsf; Affirmed

EMF-NL Prime 2008-A B.V.     

  - Class A2 XS0362465535; LT Bsf; Downgrade

  - Class A3 XS0362465881; LT Bsf; Downgrade

  - Class B XS0362466186; LT CCCsf; Affirmed

  - Class C XS0362466269; LT CCsf; Affirmed

  - Class D XS0362466772; LT CCsf; Affirmed

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

The transactions are securitisations of Dutch residential mortgages
originated by ELQ Portefeuille I BV and partially by Quion 50 (in
EMF only).

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Expected Coronavirus Scenario

Fitch has made assumptions about the spread of the coronavirus and
the economic impact of the related containment measures. As a
base-case (most likely) scenario, Fitch assumes a global recession
in 1H20 driven by sharp economic contractions in major economies
with a rapid spike in unemployment, followed by a solid recovery
that begins in 3Q20 as the health crisis subsides.

As a downside (sensitivity) scenario provided in the Rating
Sensitivities section, Fitch considers a more severe and prolonged
period of stress with a slow recovery beginning in 2Q21.

Coronavirus Exposure and Updated Assumptions

Fitch expects the coronavirus outbreak to cause deterioration in
the performance of Dutch mortgage loan portfolios as self-employed
borrowers, those on temporary or flexible contracts and a
proportion of borrowers who work for SMEs experience a fall in cash
flow and income. Fitch has increased the foreclosure frequency by
15% and reduced the recovery rate by 15% to account for this
expectation. The downgrade of Eurosail 2007-2's class A and class M
notes was in part driven by this change in assumptions.

Liquidity Risk from Payment Holidays

Fitch expects that Dutch RMBS may face heightened liquidity risks
this year as mortgage lenders embrace forbearance options for
borrowers affected by the crisis. In EMF, the downgrade and the
Rating Watch Negative on the class A2 and class A3 notes to 'Bsf'
reflect the absence of any liquidity protection and a higher
exposure to self-employed borrowers (more than 70% of the
portfolio).

In contrast, in both Eurosail 2007-1 and Eurosail 2007-2 Fitch
views the available liquidity sources sufficient to withstand
potential liquidity stresses that may be caused by a wider take-up
of the payment moratoriums among borrowers.

Asset Performance

The share of performing loans as of end-2019 had risen by 2pp to
4pp in all three transactions from the level 12 months before. In
Eurosail 2007-1 and Eurosail 2007-2, the late-stage arrears (loans
delinquent for over three months) continued to improve over the
last 12 months decreasing by 0.5pp to 1.5pp, whereas in EMF there
has been a year-on-year increase in late-stage arrears, the first
since 2013. The absolute level of late-stage arrears in all three
transactions remains high (up to 5%) compared with the equivalent
measure in the Fitch Netherlands All Deals Index (less than 0.15%
as of end-2019).

Originator Adjustment

Fitch applied originator adjustments of 3.55x (EMF), 3.35x
(Eurosail 2007-1) and 3.10x (Eurosail 2007-2) that are different to
those applied at transactions' close (1.3x) given the significant
portion of borrowers with adverse credit characteristics. These
adjustments address the portfolios' sub-standard credit quality and
the weak performance reported since closing.

Ratings Capped in the 'Asf' category

Fitch views the transactions' portfolio characteristics as not
compatible with high investment-grade categories (ratings at
'AA-sf' or higher). Consequently, Fitch has capped the
transactions' ratings in the 'Asf' rating category. As a result,
Eurosail 2007-1's class A notes have been affirmed at 'A+sf', one
notch lower than the class's model-implied rating.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Coronavirus Downside Scenario Sensitivity

Fitch has added a coronavirus downside sensitivity analysis that
contemplates a more severe and prolonged economic stress caused by
a re-emergence of infections in the major economies, before a slow
recovery begins in 2Q21. The test has been conducted by increasing
portfolios' assumed foreclosure frequency by 30% and decreasing
portfolios' recovery rate by 30%.

Fitch expects that Eurosail 2007-1 and Eurosail 2007-2 ratings may
face downgrades up to four notches (for most tranches by one or two
notches), should the asset performance deteriorate in line with the
downside scenario. Under the same scenario, EMF's class A notes
would be expected to face challenges in maintaining timely interest
payments, whereas the junior notes, given currently distressed
rating levels, are unlikely to experience further downgrades in the
medium term.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade

  - Material increases in the frequency of foreclosures and reduced
recoveries on foreclosed properties that produce losses larger than
Fitch's current base case expectations

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade

  - Increasing resilience of the transactions to asset maturity
concentration

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance
transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as
the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
are based on historical performance.

CRITERIA VARIATION

The portfolios comprise over 90% of interest-only loans with
maturity profiles clustered within a short two-year period, close
to the notes' final legal maturity, exposing the structures to the
risk of extended recovery timings (beyond Fitch's standard
assumptions) that may put pressure on the issuers' ability to meet
the payments due to the noteholders. To account for this perceived
maturity concentration risk, Fitch applied a criteria variation by
changing the distribution of defaults for the back-loaded default
curve and extending the recovery timing for additional 18 months
across all rating scenarios.

Furthermore, to account for the coronavirus stresses, in its
analysis of the transactions for its base scenario Fitch assumed a
15% increase in the weighted average foreclosure frequency of the
portfolios and a 15% decrease in the recovery rates. The outcome of
this analysis showed that despite the application of these
stresses, the credit support available to the class B and C notes
of Eurosail 2007-1 was sufficient to withstand such performance
deterioration, leading to the upgrades listed above.

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10

Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.

DATA ADEQUACY

Fitch has checked the consistency and plausibility of the
information it has received about the performance of the asset
pools and the transactions. There were no findings that affected
the rating analysis. Fitch has not reviewed the results of any
third-party assessment of the asset portfolio information or
conducted a review of origination files as part of its ongoing
monitoring.

Fitch did not undertake a review of the information provided about
the underlying asset pools ahead of the transactions' initial
closing. The subsequent performance of the transactions over the
years is consistent with the agency's expectations given the
operating environment and Fitch is therefore satisfied that the
asset pool information relied on for its initial rating analysis
was adequately reliable.

Overall, Fitch's assessment of the information relied on for the
agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating
methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of 3 - ESG issues are credit
neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the transaction,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed.

EMF-NL Prime 2008-A B.V. has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for
Transaction Parties & Operational Risk due to weaker underwriting
standards applied by the originator that have manifested in
weaker-than-market performance of the asset portfolio and reflected
in originator adjustments to the foreclosure frequency, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.

Eurosail-NL 2007-1 B.V. has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for
Transaction Parties & Operational Risk due to weaker underwriting
standards applied by the originator that have manifested in
weaker-than-market performance of the asset portfolio, reflected in
originator adjustments to the foreclosure frequency, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.

Eurosail-NL 2007-2 B.V. has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for
Transaction Parties & Operational Risk due to weaker underwriting
standards applied by the originator that have manifested in
weaker-than-market performance of the asset portfolio, reflected in
originator adjustments to the foreclosure frequency, which has a
negative impact on the credit profile, and is relevant to the
ratings in conjunction with other factors.



===========
N O R W A Y
===========

NORWEGIAN AIR: Shareholders Back Debt-for-Equity Swap
-----------------------------------------------------
Oliver Gill at The Telegraph reports that Norwegian is poised to
unlock a crucial GBP230 million state bailout after investors
backed a painful restructuring of the airline's finances.

Shareholders approved plans on May 4 for lenders and aircraft
leasing firms to swap debts of more than NOK10 billion (GBP770
million) for shares in the carrier, The Telegraph relates.

The debt-for-equity swap was vital for Norwegian to access
government support from Oslo after operations were brought to a
near standstill by the coronavirus pandemic, The Telegraph notes.

Norwegian, the third-biggest airline at Gatwick airport, was left
particularly exposed by the global emergency, having racked up
debts of more than GBP6 billion to fuel a dramatic expansion
program in recent years, The Telegraph relays.

Shareholders will be left with little more than 5% of the company
after the restructuring but will have the chance to participate in
a GBP30 million rights issue scheduled to take place on May 11, The
Telegraph discloses.

Norwegian, which even before the pandemic was belittled within the
industry as "the next airline to fail" due to its debt mountain,
had been expecting to run out of cash in mid-May, The Telegraph
notes.

According to The Telegraph, the airline said: "With the significant
contributions from lessors and bondholders, the company expects to
convert more than NOK10 billion (US$958 million) in debt to
equity."

The swap will unlock Norwegian state guarantees of up to NOK2.7
billion on top of NOK300 million it has already received, The
Telegraph states.


PGS ASA: Fitch Cuts Rating to CCC on Seismic Services Market Drop
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded PGS ASA to 'CCC' from 'B'/Stable.

The downgrade reflects its expectation of severe performance
deterioration due to a steep structural decline in the seismic
services market, which will put significant pressure on the
company's liquidity. Fitch expects revenue to shrink by over 30% in
2020 alongside an EBITDA decline to below USD350 million, which
will cause renewed strain on liquidity despite its successful
refinancing in February 2020.

PGS's liquidity risk primarily stems from a USD135 million tranche
of a fully drawn revolver maturing in September 2020 and an
additional USD74 million of debt amortization payments falling due
in 2021 while free cash flow is expected to be negative. This
results in very tight liquidity for 2020, which may run out in
2021, unless the maturity of the USD135 million revolver tranche or
the term loan and export credit facility amortization schedules are
extended. Breach of covenants on the revolver in 2020 is also
likely.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Drop in EBITDA: A sharp decline in global oil demand, against the
backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic, is expected to yield a deep
reduction in vessel utilization and pricing for PGS's services,
with most E&P companies cutting 20%-30% of exploration spending.
Fitch expects this will cause a deep reduction in PGS's cash flows
in 2020, with funds from operations more than halving to around
USD200 million, after being partially mitigated by the contract
services order book until 2H20, by which time most current
contracts will be completed.

Liquidity, Covenant Compliance Pressured: While PGS's refinancing
in February 2020 significantly improved the company's debt maturity
profile and leverage, the unprecedented decline in demand is
expected to weaken EBITDA and cash flow levels by more than
previously forecast. This will lead to very tight liquidity in 2020
with risks skewed to the downside and potentially no liquidity in
2021. While Fitch assumes some recovery in oil prices in 2021, the
seismic sector will be affected with the time lag making it
challenging for PGS to address its liquidity shortage throughout
2021. This will likely lead to a covenant breach of 2.75x net
leverage and USD75 million minimum liquidity in 2H20.

Debt Amendments Critical: PGS has announced its intent to request
extensions and concessions from its lenders regarding the covenant
package and amortization payments in its loan documentation to
prevent covenant breaches and running out of liquidity. Successful
revision of the maturity and amortization schedules before end-2020
will help to address the liquidity shortage in 2021.

Cost Reductions in Focus: The restructuring of PGS's cost base over
the last few years, alongside active cost management, are expected
to partially offset the revenue decline through the 2020-2021
trough period. PGS has already elected to cold-stack two of its
eight active vessels starting in 2Q20, which Fitch assumes will
yield USD40 million to USD50 million of cost savings per vessel on
an annual basis, and to warm-stack one vessel from 3Q20. Fitch
believes that PGS has the ability to take further action such as
cutting back investments in the MultiClient library as well as
further vessel-stacking to align with demand.

Contract Revenue Provides Ballast: PGS's revenue and EBITDA
(excluding IFRS16 impact) for 2019 were in line with Fitch's
forecasts. However, the segment split was skewed towards contract
revenue, a departure from the trend in 2018, and reflecting a
pick-up in the seismic contract market. In 1Q20, 47% of vessel
utilization was allocated to contract work. This provides PGS with
modest short-term cash flow stability, as the backlog typically
provides revenue insulation for up to two quarters before existing
contracts roll off. PGS has not experienced any cancellation but
most contract negotiations have been substantially delayed or
postponed since early March. In a weaker environment, Fitch expects
the MultiClient business to provide stability to revenue.

Premium Niche OFS Market Player: PGS generates revenue through
three major channels: (i) marine contract, where data is acquired
based on a contract and the customer acquires exclusive ownership
of the data; (ii) MultiClient pre-funding, where the data is sold
to a group of customers but PGS retains the right to use it in
future; and (iii) MultiClient late sales, where PGS sells data to
customers from its seismic data library. The MultiClient business
provides some revenue stability in downturns, as demonstrated by
the recent collapse in oil prices in 2014-2015 but requires
substantial investments to keep the library up to date.

Demand Weakness to Worsen: The seismic market caters exclusively to
the exploration phase of the E&P lifecycle, which is most exposed
to near-term volatility in the oil & gas (O&G) market, and is
generally one of the most price-sensitive services. With
unprecedented pressure on oil demand and the significant drop in
oil prices, the next two years are expected to be substantially
weaker than the trough years of the last cycle in both vessel
utilization and pricing.

Price Lag to O&G: While Fitch expects O&G prices to recover
gradually over the medium term, it sees a four-to-six quarter lag
between hydrocarbon prices resetting to normalized levels and
utilization and pricing for services following suit. Therefore,
Fitch expects this protracted weakness to weigh on PGS's
performance over the next three years.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

PGS is a leading global marine seismic company with a market share
of about 35%, offering both MultiClient and contract services.
PGS's leadership is supported by young and high-capacity vessels
(Ramform) that are fully equipped with GeoStreamers, a proprietary
technology that allows for higher clarity and accuracy of images.

PGS focuses only on the offshore segment of the market, so it does
not benefit from diversification, unlike other oilfield services
companies with exposure to both offshore and onshore, such as
Nabors Industries, Inc. (B-/RWN). In addition, while Nabors is
highly exposed to the spending patterns of higher- cost US shale
producers, its liquidity position is less strained than that of
PGS. Both companies' credit profiles are constrained by the high
likelihood of liquidity erosion over the next 12 months, vs.
companies such as Precision Drilling Corporation (B+/Negative)
which faces the same fundamental pressures as Nabors and PGS but
will enter the downturn with a more robust liquidity and lower
leverage.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's Key Assumptions within its Rating Case for the Issuer

  - Brent crude oil price USD35/bbl in 2020, USD45/bbl in 2021,
USD53/bbl in 2022, and USD55/bbl in 2023.

  - Average of six vessels in 2020 (8 actives in 1Q20, 6 through
3Q20, 5 thereafter), remaining under seven throughout its rating
case projections extending to 2023

  - Vessel utilization rate at 65% in 2020, gradually increasing to
75% through 2023

  - Annual operating cost savings of USD40 million to USD50 million
per cold-stacked vessel till 2023

  - Profitability (defined as FFO minus MultiClient library
investment, to revenue) of -5% in 2020, recovering to 11% in 2023

  - MultiClient library investment of USD180 million in 2020,
gradually normalizing to around USD250 million through 2023

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action/Upgrade:

  - Recovery in EBITDA towards USD400 million by 2022, in line with
Fitch's forecast

  - Ability to negotiate refinancing to support sufficient
liquidity for 2021

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action/Downgrade

  - Failure to finalize a debt amendment package ahead of the
September 2020 maturity of the USD135 million non-extending
revolver tranche

  - Failure to secure waivers for expected covenant breaches in a
timely manner

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

PGS's liquidity is challenged, with negative FCF generation and
upcoming debt service payments expected to exceed committed
internal liquidity sources in 2021, and a tight projected liquidity
balance in 2020.

SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS

  - USD46 million current lease debt and EUR151 million non-current
lease debt reclassified as other liabilities

  - USD13.8 million lease interest expenses reclassified as lease
expense from interest expenses

  - USD17.9 million impairments added back to EBITDA

  - USD55.2 million right-of-use assets depreciation & amortization
reclassified as lease expense

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

The highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score
of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a
minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their
nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the
entity(ies).



===========
P O L A N D
===========

ALIOR BAN: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative & Affirms 'BB/B' ICR
--------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook on Poland-based Alior Bank
S.A. to negative from stable. At the same time, S&P affirmed its
'BB' long-term and 'B' short-term issuer credit ratings on the
bank.

S&P said, "We believe that the difficult environment related to the
severe Polish state's countermeasures to contain COVID-19 will put
temporary-but-significant pressure on Alior's already recently
weakened earnings, inflating further the credit-related risk costs
towards the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. We believe that when
the debt repayment moratoria cease to apply, in three-to-six
months, a high level of nonperforming loans might materialize
because not every borrower will recover quickly from the shutdown.
High reported NPL ratio of over 13% as of December 2019 could
increase toward 20% in the next 12 months.

"Consequently, we see now increased risks to Alior's stand-alone
credit profile while still taking comfort from the potential
support from its controlling shareholder PZU (currently holding 32%
share of the bank). Our RAC ratio fully reflects the introduction
of IFRS-9, without recognition of any transition periods. For that
reason, at 7%-8%, it remains significantly lower than the reported
2019 Tier 1 ratio of 13.5%. Given the pandemic-related economic
circumstances in Poland, there is not much buffer left for
additional unexpected provisioning and the tail risks are high.
This might not be fully offset by the announced full earnings
retention for at least the next two years. In addition, we think
that the bank will only gradually recover its earnings profile
under a new, more careful underwriting business model.

"On the other hand, we view somewhat positively Alior's comparably
improved coverage level of NPLs toward the market standards and
note bank's strategy since year-end 2018, to reduce riskier
lending, focusing also on secure mortgage and state-supported small
and midsize enterprise facilities. Positively, the bank has no
legacy Swiss franc-denominated mortgage loans in its portfolio, so
remains immune to the related litigation or economic risks. In
addition, it continues to reduce its corporate exposure--toward 10%
of lending--the segment where Alior has always rather been a
challenger, forced to compromise on underwriting to increase or
defend market shares. Of importance, we will monitor the
development of the bank's consumer loans business over 2020-2021,
the product it specializes in but also largely relies upon, with
regard to its profitability.

"We expect Alior's liquidity to remain sound, given the
predominantly retail deposit funding base of the bank's business,
with negligible reliance on wholesale funding at 86% net
loans-to-deposits ratio."

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak. S&P said,
"Some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak about
midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic
and credit implications. We believe the measures adopted to contain
COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession. As the
situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates
accordingly."

S&P said, "The negative outlook on Alior reflects our view that the
current challenging macroeconomic shock in Poland could further
undermine the bank's already-weakened risk-return profile, bringing
our RAC ratio below 7% over the next 12 months.

"We could consider downgrading Alior if we perceived the economic
risk in Poland significantly worsened over the next 12 months,
leading the RAC ratio to drop below 7%. Also, any further
unexpected decrease in quality of the bank's portfolio, especially
in already very stretched legacy corporate loans segment, could
further accelerate that process."

An outlook revision to stable in the next 12 months horizon would
require the economy to stabilize with Alior returning to the
sustainably lower cost of risk, at a comfortable RAC ratio buffer
above 7%.


PARTNERBUD SA: Files Motion for Bankruptcy in Czestochowa Court
---------------------------------------------------------------
Reuters reports that Partnerbud SA said on April 30 it has filed a
motion for bankruptcy to the district court in Czestochowa.

According to Reuters, Partnerbud said the motion has been submitted
due to the company's insolvency as a result of the cessation of
financing and merger of the company and its capital group with
Murapol Group.

Partnerbud has decided to book write-downs on the company's assets
in the total amount of PLN30.7 million which will be accounted for
in its financial result for 2019, Reuters relates.

Headquartered in Poland, PartnerBud SA is a construction company
specializing in contract engineering and design.




POLSKI KONCERN: Egan-Jones Lowers Sr. Unsec. Debt Ratings to BB+
----------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company, on April 21, 2020, downgraded the
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA to BB+ from BBB.

Headquartered in Plock, Poland, Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen S.A.
refines and distributes petroleum products.




===============
P O R T U G A L
===============

NOVO BANCO: Moody's Affirms B2 Deposit Ratings,  Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the B2 long-term deposit
ratings and Caa2 long-term senior unsecured debt ratings of Novo
Banco, S.A. The outlook on these ratings has been changed to stable
from positive. At the same time, Moody's has affirmed the bank's
Baseline Credit Assessment and Adjusted BCA at caa1. Further, Novo
Banco's long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment has been affirmed at
B1(cr) as well as its long-term Counterparty Risk Ratings at B1 and
its subordinated debt rating at Caa2. The bank's short-term ratings
and assessments remain unaffected.

The rating action reflects the deteriorating operating environment
from the coronavirus outbreak in Portugal, which will limit the
upside potential of Novo Banco's standalone credit profile. In
Moody's view, the BCA of Novo Banco will be exposed to a reversal
of its improving trend in asset quality and will face additional
challenges to restore its very weak profitability metrics.

RATINGS RATIONALE

In mid-March, Portugal enforced widespread limitations on movement
to contain the rapid spread of the coronavirus that in Moody's view
will have a material impact on the country's economy, affecting
both corporate and individuals. The rating agency regards the
coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its Environmental
Social and Governance framework, given the substantial implications
for public health and safety.

The stabilization of Novo Banco's outlook reflects Moody's view
that in light of this deteriorating environment there is a high
likelihood for a reversal in the improving trend of Novo Banco's
standalone credit profile, which limits the previously anticipated
upward pressure on the bank's BCA.

In particular, Moody's views that Novo Banco's plan to further
de-risk its balance sheet is likely to be challenged by the rating
agency's expectation that Portuguese banks' problem loans will
increase as economic disruption reduces the repayment capacity of
households and businesses. Moody's considers that the scale of the
increase will depend on the duration of the crisis, and although it
considers that government support measures will provide some
counterbalancing uplift, they will not be sufficient to offset the
adverse impact on asset quality.

In addition, the rating agency considers that Novo Banco's very
weak profitability metrics will likely come under further pressure
from rising loan loss provisions, lower lending and fee-related
business volumes, and continued margin pressure as very low
interest rates persist.

In affirming the bank's BCA at caa1, Moody's has taken into
consideration Novo Banco's persistent solvency challenges,
reflected by a very high level of problematic assets (Moody's
estimated the bank's non-performing asset ratio at around 19% at
end-December 2019) and very weak profitability levels (the bank
reported a consolidated net loss of EUR1.1 billion at end-December
2019 that was hit by the losses related to the disposal of part of
its legacy portfolio). Moody's also acknowledges the reduction in
the funds from the contingent capital support mechanism (to EUR910
million from a total limit of EUR3.89 billion [1]) that is still
available to compensate Novo Banco for the losses incurred on the
set of assets covered by this scheme and is concerned about the
scope and effectiveness of the measures the bank will be
implementing in the current environment to ensure the long-term
sustainability of its franchise. Novo Banco's BCA incorporates one
notch of negative adjustment for corporate behavior to reflect the
high uncertainty around the bank's medium-term strategy and actions
to achieve the goals of its restructuring plan.

The affirmation of Novo Banco's long-term deposit ratings of B2 and
long-term senior unsecured debt ratings of Caa2 reflects (1) the
affirmation of the bank's BCA and Adjusted BCA at caa1; (2) the
outcome of Moody's Advanced Loss Given Failure (LGF) analysis,
which results in a two-notch uplift for the deposit ratings and a
negative notch for the senior unsecured debt ratings; and (3) the
rating agency's assumption of a low probability of government
support, which results in no further rating uplift.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The stabilization of Novo Banco's outlook limits the potential of
higher deposit and senior debt ratings. However, Novo Banco's
standalone BCA could be upgraded if the bank makes progress in
reducing its stock of problematic assets and improving its very
weak profitability metrics as a result of the planned restructuring
of its operations.

Downward pressure on Novo Banco's standalone BCA could emerge if as
a result of Portugal's deteriorating operating environment: (1) the
bank's risk-absorption capacity deteriorates because of a further
weakening of its asset risk or larger-than-expected losses, or (2)
the bank's liquidity deteriorates from its current position.

Changes to the bank's liability structure could also have an impact
on its ratings. The bank's deposit ratings could be negatively
impacted by a reduction in the volume of junior deposits, that have
been fairly volatile over the recent past.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: Novo Banco, S.A.

Affirmations:

Long-term Counterparty Risk Ratings, affirmed B1

Long-term Bank Deposits, affirmed B2, outlook changed to Stable
from Positive

Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed B1(cr)

Baseline Credit Assessment, affirmed caa1

Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, affirmed caa1

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, affirmed Caa2, outlook
changed to Stable from Positive

Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, affirmed Caa2

Outlook Action:

Outlook changed to Stable from Positive

Issuer: NB Finance Ltd.

Affirmations:

Backed Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, affirmed Caa2,
outlook changed to Stable from Positive

Outlook Action:

Outlook changed to Stable from Positive

Issuer: Novo Banco S.A., Luxembourg Branch

Affirmations:

Long-term Counterparty Risk Ratings, affirmed B1

Long-term Bank Deposits, affirmed B2, outlook changed to Stable
from Positive

Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, affirmed B1(cr)

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, affirmed Caa2, outlook
changed to Stable from Positive

Outlook Action:

Outlook changed to Stable from Positive



===========
R U S S I A
===========

ALFA-BANK: S&P Affirms BB+/B Issuer Credit Ratings, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB+/B' issuer credit ratings on
Alfa-Bank JSC. At the same time, S&P affirmed the 'BB-/B' ratings
on its holding company ABH Financial Holdings Ltd. The outlook on
both entities is stable.

S&P said, "We affirmed the ratings because we see the consolidated
group's risk profile remaining resilient to the adverse operating
conditions in Russia, provoked by economic downturn, the COVID-19
pandemic, and lower oil prices. We think that the bank has a long,
proven track record of navigating financial crises, and that it
will likely therefore remain profitable even in the current
difficult conditions.

"At the same time, we believe that the bank's profitability will be
under pressure this year, predominantly from elevated credit costs,
which we expect to increase to 2.5%-3.0% this year. We expect that
the main provisioning needs will arise from the oil and gas sector,
as well as from the bank's retail loan book, which rapidly grew in
2018-2019. We also expect that the ratio of nonperforming loans in
the total loan book will rise to 5%-6% in 2020 from 4.24% as of
year-end 2019. However, we believe that the bank's sustainable
earnings generation capacity, as well as its proactive approach in
dealing with problem exposures, will secure its profitability and
financial standing over the next 12-18 months.

"We continue to deduct two notches in our ratings on ABH Financial,
given that its debt payment capacity remains reliant on dividends
from the main operating subsidiaries, which are prudentially
regulated and may therefore be subject to potential restrictions.
We also expect leverage at the holding company level will remain
stable in the next 12-18 months.

"The ratings on Alfa-Bank continue to reflect our 'bb-' anchor for
banks operating predominantly in Russia, as well as our view of
Alfa-Bank's leading competitive position among private-sector banks
in Russia in terms of assets, product lines, and efficiency. The
bank continues to maintain adequate capitalization, with our
expected risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio remaining above 8%. We
expect the bank to remain profitable in the next 12-18 months. We
view positively the bank's efficient risk management framework and
absence of direct lending, as well as its very swift reaction to
collateral foreclosure, which supports asset quality management,
even in downturns. We assess the bank's funding as average and
liquidity as adequate, and we note that it enjoys better access to
capital markets than local peers. We consider Alfa-Bank to have
high systemic importance in Russia and believe there is a
moderately high likelihood that the Russian government would
provide extraordinary support to Alfa-Bank if needed.

"We have assigned intermediate equity content to the Russian ruble
5 billion perpetual subordinated bonds Alfa Bank issued last year,
because we believe it contains features that allow it to absorb
potential unexpected losses (i.e., via coupon nonpayment).

"The outlook on both Alfa-Bank and ABH Financial is stable, because
we believe that, over the next 12-18 months, the bank will be able
to withstand the negative operating environment, and sustain its
current risk profile.

"The possibility of a negative rating action on Alfa-Bank is
currently remote, because it would require simultaneously a
deterioration in the issuer's credit standing and a downgrade of
Russia. We could take a negative rating action on ABH Financial if,
contrary to our base-case scenario, the group did not successfully
manage risks associated with the current adverse operating
conditions, with new loan-loss provisions significantly exceeding
market average metrics."

A positive rating action on either entity is also remote at this
stage, because such an action would require either significant
improvement in the group's capitalization levels, with the RAC
ratio at sustainably above 10%, or, a generally more supportive
operating environment for banking in Russia.


BANK URALSIB: S&P Affirms 'B/B' ICRs, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B/B' long-term and short-term
issuer credit ratings on BANK URALSIB. The outlook is stable.

S&P said, "The affirmation reflects our expectation that URALSIB
will be able to contain the pressure from the worsening economic
conditions in Russia and maintain relatively stable asset quality.
While we expect deterioration in the bank's bottom-line results in
the next two years, we expect that this won't significantly affect
its capital position due to sufficient capital cushion accumulated
in previous years.

"We expect that URALSIB will follow its moderately conservative
lending strategy in both the corporate and retail segments. The
bank has made substantial progress in cleaning its corporate
portfolio from legacy problem loans that led to the corporate loan
book contracting 17% last year. We expect that URALSIB will proceed
with these efforts in line with its financial rehabilitation plan.
We also anticipate it will stick with a prudent approach toward
retail lending focusing on mortgage and consumer loans to employees
of the salary projects it services, that together grew by about
12.9% in 2019. In our view, the bank will retain its market
position as a midsize player in the Russian banking sector. On
March 1, 2020, it ranked 19th among Russia's 478 banks by net
assets (488 billion Russian rubles [RUB] or about US$7.3 billion
under local accounting standards).

"We forecast that URALSIB'S risk adjusted capital ratio will
gradually decrease to 8.0%-8.5% in the next two years from about
9.9% at the end of 2019, in view of the economic pressures. We
expect muted loan portfolio growth in 2020, taking a hit from
COVID-19 quarantine measures, and resumed growth of 10%-15% in the
next two years. In our view, the bank's credit costs will be about
2.5% in the next two years, generally modestly lower than our
expectation for the Russian banking sector average. This takes into
account that URALSIB has improved the provision coverage of its
problem assets last year and reduced their amount. We estimate the
bank's problem loans have decreased to about 13.2% at year-end 2019
from about 14.6% a year ago. At the same time, loan loss provisions
covered Stage 3 and purchased and credit impaired loans by
approximately 92% (compared with 83% at the end of 2018). In our
forecast, the bank's bottom line results will be close to breakeven
in 2020-2021 and improve to RUB1.0 billion-RUB1.5 billion in 2022.

"We expect that URALSIB's funding profile will be stable in the
next 12 months thanks to established customer relations in both
corporate and retail segments. Client deposits are the main source
of funding for the bank making up about 80% of the bank's total
funding liabilities on April 1, 2020. Another 15% of funding came
from the state-owned Deposit Insurance Agency provided on favorable
terms. Concentration of client liabilities is low, with top 20
depositors accounting for about 10% of total deposits on the same
date, which compares positively with that of local peers.

"We also expect that URALSIB will keep its ample liquidity cushion.
Cash, bank deposits and liquid securities nonpledged under
repurchase agreements constituted about 31% of total assets on
April 1.

"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that URALSIB will keep
its financial profile stable in the challenging operating
environment in view of COVID-19 and drastic measures implemented to
contain it.

"We might take a negative rating action in the next 12 months if
the bank's asset quality was to deteriorate significantly contrary
to our expectations. This could happen because of weakening
creditworthiness of the bank's retail or corporate borrowers during
the expected economic downturn in Russia in 2020. We might also
consider a downgrade if we saw instability in its ownership
structure or other issues leading to corporate governance
weaknesses."

While less likely in the next 12 months, S&P might consider a
positive rating action if URALSIB demonstrated an ability to
sustain good quality of the new lending in the challenging
operating environment and continued to work out its legacy problem
assets in line with its financial rehabilitation plan.


BORETS INTERNATIONAL: Fitch Cuts LT IDR to 'B+', Outlook Negative
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Russia-based electric submersible
pumping systems producer Borets International Limited's Long-Term
Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Rating to 'B+' from
'BB-'. The Outlook is Negative. Fitch has also downgraded Borets
Finance DAC's senior unsecured rating to 'B+'/'RR4' from 'BB-'.

The downgrade reflects pressure on Borets' funds from operations
leverage metrics due to expected considerable rouble depreciation
in 2020, the severe drop in the oil prices and the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic, which has led to global recession. Fitch
forecasts that this will lead to a decline in funds from operations
in 2020 and FFO net leverage being higher in 2020 than its previous
negative sensitivity of 3.5x as the majority of revenue is
generated in roubles while almost all debt is linked to US dollars.
Moreover, a planned decrease of oil production by Russian oil
majors in 2020 will also affect the group's operating performance.

The Negative Outlook reflects the risk of prolonged deterioration
in the oil industry, which may ultimately affect the company's
operating performance and lead to weak liquidity position.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Leverage Metrics Under the Pressure: Borets' operating performance
was slightly lower than its expectations in 2019, due to ongoing
lower activity of the Russian segment, mainly as a result of a
reduced share of business from Rosneft, the company's largest
customer. Dollar-denominated debt further increased leverage with
FFO net leverage of 3.5x at end-2019. Given the current sharp
decrease in oil prices that drives rouble depreciation, Fitch
expects further pressure on Borets' FFO net leverage towards 4.0x
2020, outside its negative sensitivity for 'BB-'.

The group historically reported robust cash flow generation and has
long-term relationships with key oil majors. However, Fitch
believes that the oil majors will try to optimize their operating
costs, which will have a negative influence on the Borets'
operating performance in the face of collapsed oil prices.

Squeezed Free Cash Flow: Due to the company's ongoing strategy to
increase rental business, Borets' working capital further slightly
increased in 2019. Cash flow underperformed versus its previous
forecast and capex rose from about 3% in 2018 to around 4% in 2019,
resulting in minimal free cash flow generation, lower than previous
years.

Borets has signed several large contracts with oil majors in 2019
that should support its expansion to more profitable rental
business over the long term. However, Fitch expects squeezed FFO
generation in the short term amid the currently negative market
environment, which could lead to minimal or even negative FCF
generation, lower than its 'BB' mid-point as per Fitch's Navigator
for Diversified Industrials and Capital Goods.

Concentrated Customer Base: Borets is aiming to diversify its
customer base, which is currently concentrated and mainly
represented by Russian large oil majors. The top five customers
contributed about 48% of revenue in 2019 indicating a certain
customer diversification improvement versus 2018 where the top five
customers made up 55% of revenue. The group has material exposure
to Rosneft, the largest Russian oil producer, although its share
decreased to about 22% in 2019 from 42% in 2017. The oil major was
in the process of diversifying and expanding participants in its
supply chain, which affected Borets.

Despite a squeeze in Borets' operating performance in 2018-2019,
driven mainly by contraction of the business with Rosneft, Fitch
expects that the group will maintain healthy profitability in the
medium term, thanks to a considerably increased order book in 2019
from other Russian oil majors and ongoing international business
expansion.

Increasing International Business: Borets' business profile is
characterized by limited geographic diversification. Unlike other
Russian Fitch-rated industrial companies, which are mostly exposed
to domestic market, Borets has gradually increased its
international presence over the last two years. The majority of
revenue is derived in Russia while international business is
constantly increasing and contributes to about 40% over 2018-2019
versus 25%-30% during 2016-2017, in line with the group's strategy
to increase international business.

Borets plans to expand the international business to about 50% of
total generated revenue over the medium term. The group benefits
from mostly rouble-denominated operating costs accompanied with
increased international revenue, which should support the group's
profitability.

Narrow Range of Products: Borets' business activity is primary
focused on production of electrical submersible pump (ESP) systems
for oil extraction, making its revenue sensitive to output of oil
producers as key customers. Fitch expects that Russian oil
producers will cut oil production by around 8%-10% yoy for
full-year 2020 due to the recently agreed by OPEC+ deal. Fitch
expects that this will have a negative effect on Borets' revenue
generation, despite the relatively resilient nature of the ESP
business and stable demand for ESP in the long term compared with
other oil-services companies.

The limited range of products is mitigated by a significant share
of more profitable aftermarket services and rental revenues.

Leader in Niche Market: The company operates in a relatively niche
market. Almost all global oil wells rely on artificial lift
technology, of which ESP systems contribute about 16% by unit and
about 42% by value. Borets is the leading manufacturer globally,
with a market share of about 24% by installed base and the
third-largest global player in value terms. The group's strong
market position, high technology content and successful long-term
cooperation with major oil producers act as significant barriers to
entry in the company's niche market.

Recurring Nature of Business: Oil production largely relies on ESP
systems and installed ESPs have to be replaced at the end of their
average life cycle of two to five years due to the severe
environment of the well bore. As a result, these systems are
considered vital for oil producers and funds spent on it are viewed
as operating expenses rather than capex, making demand for ESPs
stable with a low to moderate correlation with oil price
fluctuations.

The resilience of the ESP market to oil price fluctuations provides
sustainable revenue generation for Borets in the long term.
However, Fitch cannot rule out a short-term decrease of demand
following the severe reduction of oil production in the currently
negative market environment.

Average Recovery of Senior Unsecured: Fitch estimates under its
bespoke recovery analysis that a going concern approach will lead
to higher recoveries for creditors, given the leading market
position of Borets and its long-term relationship with oil majors.
The waterfall results in 'RR2' for the bondholders, but because the
company operates primary in Russia and most of its assets are
located in Russia, the recovery rating is capped at 'RR4' in line
with Fitch's methodology.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Borets is one of the leading ESPs producers globally and has good
long-term relationship with large Russian oil majors.

The group has relatively small scale of operations, less
geographical diversification and narrow product range in comparison
to international peers like Flowserve Corporation (BBB-/Negative)
and Arcelik (BB+/Negative). Lack of diversification is common for
other Russian industrial peers like JSC HMS Group (B+/Stable) and
JSC Transmashholding (BB/Stable). Similar to Flowserve and
thyssenkrupp AG (BB-/Stable), Borets' business profile is supported
by a solid share of service revenue that provides the company with
the cash flow stability over the long term.

Historically Borets has higher profitability in comparison with
peers, with FFO margin being over 15% and positive FCF generation
on a sustained basis, albeit squeezed in 2018-2019 and expected to
be minimal or negative in the short term. Deteriorated FFO net
leverage by end-2019 towards 3.5x was higher than leverage metrics
of peers with 2.7x reported by Flowserve (end-2019) and around 3.0x
by HMS Group (end-2018).

No Country Ceiling, parent/subsidiary or operating environment
aspects has an impact on the rating.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - Double-digit decrease of revenue in 2020 due to rouble
depreciation and declining demand due to a severe market
environment in the oil industry; low single-digit rise of revenue
for further years

  - EBITDA margin averaging at about 28% during 2020-2023 being
supported with grown rental business which is more profitable

  - Capex at 4% of revenue

  - Fitch assumes that current bond issue due on 2022 will be
refinanced

  - No dividend payments

Key Recovery Rating Assumptions:

  - The recovery analysis assumes that the company would be
considered a going concern in bankruptcy and that it would be
reorganized rather than liquidated

  - Its going-concern value is estimated at around USD380 million
assuming distressed EBITDA of about USD95 million

  - A 10% administrative claim

  - An enterprise value (EV) multiple of 4.0x is used to calculate
a post-reorganization valuation, and is comparable with multiples
applied to other industrial peers

  - Fitch estimates the total amount of senior unsecured debt for
claims at USD448 million, which includes a bond issue of USD330
million

  - The principal waterfall results in 'RR2' recovery for senior
unsecured debt. However, Fitch applies a country-cap of 'RR4' as
the company operates mostly in Russia. As a result, the issue
rating for USD330 bond corresponds to 'B+'.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

  - FFO net leverage below 3.5x

  - FCF sustainably positive

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

  - Sustainably negative FCF

  - FFO adjusted net leverage above 4.5x on a sustained basis

  - FFO fixed charge coverage below 3.0x on a sustained basis

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Tight Liquidity: By end-March 2020 the group had drawn its
available revolver of about USD14 million (RUB1 billion) in order
to strength its liquidity position amid the vulnerable market
environment. Fitch-defined unrestricted cash of about USD48 million
as end-March 2020 was sufficient to cover short-term debt repayment
of about USD30 million and would be sufficient to cover potentially
slightly negative FCF generation in the short term.

Historically the group's liquidity was supported with sustainably
positive FCF generation. The current vulnerable market environment
could have a negative impact on the group's operating performance
and lead to negative FCF generation, eroding the group's liquidity
and pushing the company to a weak liquidity position over the short
term.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

The highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score
of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a
minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their
nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the
entity(ies).

HAMKORBANK JSCB: S&P Alters Outlook to Stable & Affirms B+ Rating
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings took the following actions on the
Uzbekistan-based banks it rates:

                               To             From
  
  Hamkorbank JSCB
   Issuer credit rating    B+/Stable/B    B+/Positive/B

  Orient Finans Bank
   Issuer credit rating    B/Stable/B     B/Positive/B

  Kapitalbank
   Issuer credit rating    B-/Stable/B    B-/Stable/B

  Davr-Bank
   Issuer credit rating    B-/Stable/B    B-/Positive/B

  Ravnaq-bank
   Issuer credit rating    B-/Negative/   B-/Stable/B

  Turkiston Bank
   Issuer credit rating    B-/Negative/B  B-/Stable/B

NB: This list does not include all the ratings affected.

S&P said, "In our view, the economic and financial consequences of
the coronavirus outbreak will have a negative impact on
Uzbekistan's economy and test the resilience of its banks.

"We have revised down our 2020 base-case GDP growth forecast for
Uzbekistan. We now expect the economy to grow by only 1% (down from
5.5% previously [see "Sovereign Risk Indicators," April 24, 2020]),
reflecting the hit to domestic and external demand from COVID-19
containment measures. We believe that Uzbekistan's economy will
absorb the current shocks and will likely return to growth at 5% on
average in 2021-2022. At the same time, the downside risks in our
base-case forecast remain. What the spread of the coronavirus means
for economic outcomes remains unclear and could be worse than we
currently assume. The speed of the recovery will also depend on
policy measures to cushion the blow and limit economic dislocation
and to support the economy and households.

"S&P Global Ratings expects Uzbek banks' profits to drop due to
weakening asset quality and slowing credit growth. We think that
the Uzbekistani sum (UZS) 45 trillion (approximately US$4.4
billion; about 9% of GDP) support package announced by Uzbekistan's
government will partially alleviate the stress on the economy and
households. We note that this slowdown is the first for
Uzbekistan's banks since the country opened its economy in 2017 and
follows a very rapid growth in loan portfolios across the system.

"We believe that Uzbek banks' credit losses will therefore increase
significantly in 2020-2021 to 3%-4% in 2020, from 1.6% in 2019 and
NPLs will rise to 4%-5% in 2020, 3%-4% in 2021, and 2%-3% in 2022.

"Consequences for Uzbekistan's economy could be worse that we
expect now, so downside risks remain firmly in place and the impact
on the banking sector could be even more negative.

"Therefore have revised our assessment of the risk trend for
Uzbekistan's banking system to negative from stable. This reflects
the implications of the upcoming slowdown."

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak. S&P said,
"Some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak about
midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic
and credit implications. We believe the measures adopted to contain
COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession. As the
situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates
accordingly."

Hamkorbank JCSB

S&P said, "We revised our outlook on Hamkorbank to stable from
positive because we no longer see a positive ration action as
likely in the next 12 months, as we did with our previous positive
outlook.

"We think that the adverse economic conditions in Uzbekistan in
2020 will lead to material deterioration of Hamkorbank's asset
quality and higher credit losses compared with previous years. We
expect Hamkorbank will restructure about 11.0% of its loan
portfolio, including loans with interest and principle payments
deferred until October 2020. We think that roughly half of the
restructured loans will become problematic by year-end 2020 and we
therefore expect that the bank's share of NPLs will likely increase
to 8.4% from 4.0% as of year-end 2019. In our view, the bank's
asset quality will be weaker than the system average due to its
high exposure to small and midsize enterprises (SMEs), private
entrepreneurs, and retail customers, which will all be more greatly
affected by the lockdown and slower economic growth than large
corporations. We also note that some unresolved legacy problem
loans will remain a burden for the bank's asset quality. We
therefore view the bank's risk position as a weakness for the
rating.

"At the same time, we think that the bank's high earnings capacity
will enable it to absorb a higher cost of risk, which will in our
opinion increase to 3.2% in 2020 and remain elevated in 2021. We
also think that the bank's sufficient capital buffer will protect
its credit profile from deterioration in the current economic
conditions. We expect that positive profitability and slower credit
growth will support the bank's capital adequacy with the
risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio remaining sustainably above 8.0%
over the next two years. We also expect that the bank will maintain
a buffer of at least 200 basis points (bps) above the capital
regulatory minimum.

"In our view, the bank's sound and stable franchise in SME and
retail lending, sizable customer base, and diversified lending mix
will support its business position, which we no longer see as a
negative rating factor. We also believe that the bank's good
earning capacity supports its business sustainability over the
cycle, thanks to high net interest margin and good operating
efficiency."

Hamkorbank has adequate liquidity. As of March 1, 2020, the bank's
liquid assets represented about 24.0% of its total assets. S&P
said, "At 47% of the bank's total liabilities, Hamkorbank has the
highest share of funds borrowed from international financial
institutions (IFIs) among Uzbek banks we rate. We cannot exclude
that the bank may breach covenants on asset quality for some of the
funds this year. Nevertheless, we expect that most of the IFIs will
provide a waiver to the bank and will not withdraw their funds. In
our base-case scenario, we therefore do not expect material
pressure on the bank's liquidity."

Outlook

S&P said, "The stable outlook on Hamkorbank reflects our view that
the bank's strong earnings power and solid capital buffer will
enable it absorb new credit losses stemming from weaker asset
quality without material pressure on its credit profile. We also
believe that the bank's high market share in SME and consumer
finance and its diversified lending mix will support the stability
of its business position."

Downside scenario.   S&P could take a negative rating action if in
the next 12 months the bank's liquidity position comes under
pressure due to withdrawal of IFIs' funding or customers' deposits.
Materially weaker asset quality than S&P currently expects with
higher credit losses may also lead us to consider a negative rating
action. Although unlikely, significant pressure on the bank's
capital adequacy, with its CAR falling below 100bps to the
regulatory threshold may also lead to rating pressure.

Upside scenario.   S&P thinks a positive rating action is unlikely
over the next 12 months. Nevertheless, S&P could consider it in the
medium term if the bank improves its asset quality closer to the
system average and maintains its good earning capacity, adequate
capital, and liquidity buffer.

Orient-Finans Bank

S&P said, "We revised our outlook on Orient Finance Bank (OFB) to
stable from positive because we no longer view a positive ration
action as likely in the next 12 months, as we did with our previous
positive outlook.

"We believe that OFB will experience a 3%-4% cost of risk in
2020-2021, in line with sector average. We believe that OFB has
substantial capital buffers, underpinned by good profits, to absorb
losses. We estimate our RAC ratio for OFB at 13.6% at end-2019 and
we expect it to remain above 10% in the coming two years. We
believe that OFB has lower loan dollarization than peers, with
loans in foreign currency (FX) at only 36% of gross loans, versus
about 48% for the system on average. This somewhat protects the
bank's performance from devaluation of the sum.

"We also note that OFB has access to large corporate customers and
is involved in financing high-profile projects initiated by the
Cabinet of Ministers, despite its relatively small market share and
in contrast to other small and midsize banks in Uzbekistan."

OFB has adequate liquidity. As of March 1, 2020, the bank's liquid
assets represented about 27.7% of its total assets, in line with
local peers. S&P has not seen any unusual funding volatility over
the past several months.

Outlook

S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that OFB's solid
capital buffer and earnings capacity will be sufficient to support
its credit standing over the next 12-18 months amid the worsening
economic conditions and COVID-19 outbreak. The outlook also
reflects our expectation that the bank's liquidity position will
remain adequate over the same period."

Upside scenario.   S&P could take a positive rating action in the
next 12 months if OFB proves its resilience to the adverse
operating environment, continuing to show relatively low credit
losses and a low share of NPLs versus peers, while maintaining
stable capitalization and profitability metrics.

Downside scenario.   A significant decline in capitalization,
either via higher-than-expected growth in exposures or large
dividend distributions, could also lead S&P to revise outlook to
negative or even to lower the rating.

Kapitalbank

S&P said, "We affirmed the ratings and maintained our stable
outlook on Kapitalbank because we have seen Kapitalbank's
capitalization improve, supported by an injection from the
shareholder and several subordinated debt tranches it has issued.
Besides, we note that the bank's new management team is adhering to
a more prudent capital policy than what we observed previously,
along with an expressed intention to attract more capital to
underpin its planned growth."

Kapitalbank's capital buffer has furthermore increased materially,
with its regulatory capital adequacy ratio at 15.6% on March 1,
2020, from 13.7% on March 1, 2019. This was thanks to a UZS50
billion capital injection by the shareholders, several subordinated
debt instruments totaling UZS70 billion that the bank managed to
issue in 2019, relatively low exposure growth in 2019, and full
profit retention. S&P said, "Simultaneously, our RAC ratio,
estimated under local generally accepted accounting principles
(GAAP), increased to 6.7% as of end-2019, versus 5.6% a year
earlier. As a result, we now assess the bank's capital and earnings
as moderate."

S&P forecasts that its RAC ratio will be 6.5%-6.7% in the next
12-18 months, based on the following assumptions:

-- Lending growth at around 10% in 2020, accelerating to 25%-30%
in 2021, with a gradual shift toward retail loans.

-- The net interest margin at 6.0%-6.2%, based on its assumption
of intensifying competition for high-quality borrowers in the SME
and retail segments.

-- Net commissions to drop by 5% in 2020, reflecting the general
trend of lowering commissions, combined with the effects of the
lockdown, rebounding to a 5% growth in 2021.

-- Regulatory capital adequacy above 14%.

-- Credit costs at about 3.0%-3.5% in 2020-2021, in line with our
sector expectations, affected by COVID-19.

-- Return on average equity at 9%-10%, pressured by increased
credit costs and shrinking margins.

-- No dividends in the next 12-18 months.

S&P said, "According to Kapitalbank's estimates, the amount of
loans subject for restructuring that have been hit by COVID-19
outbreak is about 10% of gross loans (about UZS300 billion), which
is in line with our sector assumptions. Although in our base case
we think the bank's current capital is sufficient to absorb the
expected losses, we understand there might be additional pressure
on the bank's asset quality metrics if the economy slows further.
Moreover, Kapitalbank's high share of FX lending (49% of total
loans as of March 1, 2020), potentially exposes it to additional
risks if the sum depreciates.

"Despite the negative trend of liquidity in the sector, in our view
Kapitalbank's liquidity is sufficient, with broad liquid assets
covering short-term wholesale funding by 3x or more over the last
five years, and net broad liquid assets covering short-term
customer deposits by 38% as of Jan. 1, 2020. We have not seen any
unusual funding volatility over the last several months. The
deposit base is well diversified in the local context, with the 20
largest deposits accounting for about 18% of total deposits on the
same date."

Outlook

S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that Kapitalbank's
increased capital buffer will support expansion of its lending
activities over the next 12-18 months, with our RAC ratio remaining
in the 6.5%-6.7% range. The outlook also reflects our expectation
that the bank's funding base will remain stable over this period."

Upside scenario.   S&P said, "We could raise the rating in the next
12-18 months if we observe Kapitalbank delivering sustainable
bottom-line results commensurate with its adopted strategy and
demonstrating prudent capital management, with our RAC ratio
sustainably above 7%. An upgrade would be possible only if we see
no material deterioration of the bank's loan book." Besides, a
positive rating action would hinge on Kapitalbank's ability to
overcome the challenging operating conditions the COVID-19 pandemic
is fomenting.

Downside scenario.   S&P said, "A negative rating action could
follow if the bank's capital becomes volatile, with our RAC ratio
dropping below 5% and regulatory capital ratios lowering to their
minimal values. This could happen follow substantial asset quality
deterioration, leading to elevated credit losses, or greater than
expected lending growth that is not supported by a fresh capital
injection. A downgrade is also possible if we see pronounced
funding and liquidity pressures, which could lead to visible
specific default scenarios over the next 12 months."

Davr-Bank

S&P said, "We revised our outlook on Davr-Bank to stable from
positive because we see a lower likelihood we would take a positive
rating action in the next 12 months than we did with our previous
positive outlook.

"We think that the deterioration of economic conditions in
Uzbekistan triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and global economic
slowdown will lead to increased pressure on the bank's asset
quality metrics and to higher credit losses than in previous
years.

"We believe that Davr-Bank will experience 3%-4% cost of risk in
2020-2021, in line with the sector's average. We believe that
Davr-Bank has substantial capital buffers, underpinned by good
profitability, to absorb losses. We estimate our RAC ratio for
Davr-Bank was 10.6% at end-2019 and we expect it to be about 10% in
the coming two years.

"We note as positive that Davr-Bank's credit standing benefits from
lower single-name concentrations in the loan book than local
peers'. We also note that Davr has lower dollarization than peers,
with loans in FX at around 25% of gross loans, versus about 48% for
the system on average. This protects the bank's performance from
potential sum volatility.

"Davr-Bank has an adequate liquidity buffer in our view. As of
March 1, 2020, the bank's liquid assets represented about 24% of
its total assets and covered 29% of total liabilities. We also note
that about 25% of the bank's liabilities are long-term funds from
IFIs, obtained to finance lending to SMEs and entrepreneurs. We
cannot exclude that the bank may breach covenants on asset quality
for some of the funds this year. Nevertheless, we expect that most
of the IFIs will provide a waiver to the bank and will not withdraw
the funds. In our base-case scenario, we therefore do not expect
material pressure on the bank's liquidity."

Outlook

S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that Davr-Bank's
solid capital buffer and earnings capacity will be sufficient to
support the bank's credit standing over the next 12-18 months amid
worsening economic conditions and the COVID-19 outbreak. The
outlook also reflects our expectation that the bank's liquidity
position will remain adequate over the same period."

Upside scenario.   S&P could take a positive rating action if
Davr-Bank proves its resilience to the adverse operating
environment, continuing to show relatively low credit losses and a
low share of NPLs, compared with that of its peers, while
maintaining stable capitalization and profitability metrics. A
positive rating action would hinge on the bank's funding and
liquidity remaining adequate.

Downside scenario.   S&P would revise the outlook to negative if
Davr-Bank's asset quality deteriorated beyond our current
assumptions, hit by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic or
weakening of underwriting standards, which would result in higher
impairment charges. Furthermore, a negative rating action is
possible if lending growth results in weaker capitalization, with
our RAC ratio dropping below 7%. In addition, S&P would revise its
outlook to negative if the bank's funding and liquidity metrics
deteriorate. This could happen if the bank faced unexpected funding
outflows.

Ravnaq-bank

S&P revised its outlook on Ravnaq-bank to negative from stable
because of its view that the increased amount of problem loans,
triggered by worsening economic conditions, puts increased pressure
on the bank's capital buffer and may lead to deterioration of the
bank's liquidity position in the next 12 months.

According to Ravnaq-bank's estimates, the share of problem loans
(Stage 3 under International Financial Reporting Standard [IFRS] 9)
increased significantly in the first quarter of 2020 to about 12%
of the loan book, which is the highest level among peers. Depending
on the length of the COVID-19 lockdown, this figure might increase
further, given the already high level of restructurings in the loan
book. S&P said, "We think that such a high amount will require the
bank to create significant new loan-loss provisions that could
reach 8%-9% of average loans this year. As a result, we expect our
RAC ratio on Ravnaq-bank to decrease sharply to 10.3%-10.5% in the
next 12 months, versus 14.3% at end-2019."

S&P said, "We note that Ravnaq-bank's single-name concentrations
have historically been higher than the sector average, at around
50%-55% of gross loans. In addition, the high approximately 48%
share of FX lending in total loans adds to the vulnerability of the
bank's performance in case of a sharp depreciation of the sum.
Given these factors and the bank's volatile performance track
record, we now assess Ravnaq-bank's risk position as weak, from
moderate previously.

"We have therefore revised Ravnaq-bank's stand-alone credit profile
(SACP) to 'b-' from 'b'. We have also removed the negative
adjustment notch applied to the issuer credit rating, because we
now believe the respective negative factors, including lack of
track record of sustainable growth and more aggressive liquidity
management, compared with those of 'B' rated banks, are now
included in our SACP assessment.

"Ravnaq-bank's current liquidity buffers are sufficient to service
its needs, with liquid assets comprising about 22% of total assets
and covering 29% of total liabilities, providing a cushion for
potential outflows. We have not seen any unusual funding volatility
over the past several months. Although not the case as of now, we
note a relatively aggressive liquidity policy over the past couple
of years. Moreover, should the loan book worsen further, the
disruption in the flow of loan repayments might undermine the
bank's liquidity position, in our view."

Outlook

The negative outlook indicates S&P's view of the deterioration of
the bank's loan book quality amid the challenging operating
conditions since the COVID-19 outbreak, putting pressure on the
bank's credit standing. This is combined with the bank's relatively
high loan book concentration and its aggressive liquidity policy
over the past few years.

Downside scenario.   S&P could consider a negative rating action
over the next 12-18 months if asset quality deteriorates further
and disrupts loan repayments, which would lead it to believe
Ravnaq-bank is vulnerable and dependent upon favorable business,
financial, and economic conditions to meet its financial
commitments. Moreover, a downgrade could follow deterioration of
the bank's funding and liquidity profile.

Upside scenario.   An upgrade is a remote possibility, in S&P's
view, and would hinge upon a visible improvement of the
sustainability of the current business model and strengthening of
the bank's asset quality and funding and liquidity profiles. In
addition, the bank would need to provide more transparent
disclosure of asset quality in line with IFRS 9.

Turkiston Bank

S&P revised its outlook on Turkiston Bank to negative from stable
because it sees that the increased amount of problem loans and very
high concentration of the loan book, triggered by worsening
economic conditions, puts increased pressure on the bank's capital
buffer and regulatory ratios, and ultimately may lead to
deterioration of the bank's liquidity position in the next 12
months.

According to Turkiston Bank's estimates, less than 1% of its
portfolio could fall into delinquency and require provisions, and
an additional 2% will have to be restructured in 2020. That said,
the loan book is concentrated. The largest 20 loans account for
almost 350% of the reported capital base. That level is very high,
and above that of similarly rated local peers. S&P said, "We also
note that loan book is unseasoned and was formed during the recent
period of extremely high growth. Although we expect growth in 2020
will approach systemwide levels, at about 10%, we note that
Turkiston Bank's loan book expanded by 108% in 2019 and by 180% in
2018."

FX loans comprised about 43% of total loans, which compares with
the system average. But S&P notes that seven of the 10 largest
loans are in U.S. dollars, which makes Turkiston Bank vulnerable to
rapid FX movements.

S&P's preliminary calculation for Turkiston Bank's RAC under local
GAAP suggests a RAC ratio of 9.13% as of end-2019 and in its
base-case scenario, it anticipates that Turkiston Bank's RAC ratio
will gradually decline to 7.8%-8% in 2020-2021. The capital
adequacy ratio (CAR) is 14.5% as of April 1, 2020, versus the
minimal regulatory ratio of 13%.

Turkiston Bank's current liquidity buffers are sufficient to
service its needs, with liquid assets comprising around 12% of
total assets and 19% from short-term liabilities. S&P has not seen
any unusual funding volatility over the last several months. But it
notes that the largest 20 deposits accounted for almost 70% of
total customer deposits on April 1, 2020, which is greater
concentration than among peers and renders Turkiston Bank
vulnerable to potential deposit volatility.

Outlook

The negative outlook balances Turkiston Bank's adequate capital
levels with moderating growth prospects for 2020 and expected
deterioration in performance because of negative effects of
economic deceleration and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Downside scenario.   S&P could consider a negative rating action
over the next 12 months if it sees deterioration in the bank's
funding and liquidity profile, or significant asset-quality
deterioration, or if the bank breaches regulatory capital ratios.

Upside scenario.   A positive rating action over the next 12 months
is unlikely.

  BICRA Score Snapshot

  Uzbekistan BICRA
                                     To              From
  BICRA group                        8                8
  Implied anchor                     b+               b+
  Economic risk                      7                7
  Economic resilience          Very high risk     Very high risk
  Economic imbalances         Intermediate Risk  Intermediate Risk
  Credit risk in the economy  Very high risk   Very high risk
  Trend                           Negative           Stable
  Industry risk                      9                 9
  Institutional framework              Extremely high risk
  Competitive dynamics           High risk           High risk
  Systemwide funding            Very high risk     Very high risk
  Trend                             Stable            Stable
  Government support               Supportive       Supportive

  Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) economic risk   

  and industry risk scores are on a scale from 1 (lowest risk) to

  10 (highest risk).

  Ratings Score Snapshots

  Hamkorbank  
                                     To              From
   Issuer Credit Rating           B+/Stable/B    B+/Positive/B
   SACP                              b+               b+
   Anchor                            b+               b+
   Business Position              Adequate (0)   Moderate (-1)
   Capital and Earnings           Adequate (+1)  Adequate (+1)
   Risk Position                  Moderate (-1)  Adequate (0)
   Funding                          Average         Average
   Liquidity                      Adequate (0)   Adequate (0)
   Support                            (0)            (0)
   ALAC Support                       (0)            (0)
   GRE Support                     (0)            (0)
   Group Support                      (0)            (0)
   Government Support                 (0)            (0)
   Additional Factors                 (0)            (0)
   
  SACP--Stand-alone credit profile.

  Orient Finans Bank  
                                     To              From
   Issuer Credit Rating          B/Stable/B       B/Positive/B
   SACP                              b                b
   Anchor                            b+               b+
   Business Position             Moderate (-1)    Moderate (-1)
   Capital and Earnings          Strong (+2)      Strong (+2)
   Risk Position                 Weak (-2)        Weak (-2)
   Funding                       Average          Average
   and Liquidity                 Adequate (0)     Adequate (0)
   Support                           (0)              (0)
   ALAC Support                      (0)              (0)
   GRE Support                       (0)              (0)
   Group Support                     (0)              (0)
   Government Support                (0)              (0)
   Additional Factors                (0)              (0)

  SACP--Stand-alone credit profile.

  Kapitalbank  
                                     To              From
   Issuer Credit Rating         B-/Stable/B       B-/Stable/B
   SACP                              b-               ccc+
   Anchor                            b+                b+
   Business Position             Moderate (-1)        N.M.
   Capital and Earnings          Moderate (0)         N.M.
   Risk Position                 Moderate (-1)        N.M.
   Funding Average                 N.M.
   and Liquidity                 Adequate (0)         N.M.
   Support                           (0)              (+1)
   ALAC Support                      (0)              (0)
   GRE Support                       (0)              (0)
   Group Support                     (0)              (0)
   Government Support                (0)              (+1)
   Additional Factors                (0)              (0)

  SACP--Stand-alone credit profile.
  N.M.--Not meaningful.

  Davr-Bank  
                                     To              From
   Issuer Credit Rating         B-/Stable/B      B-/Positive/B
   SACP                              b-               b-
   Anchor                            b+               b+
   Business Position              Weak (-2)         Weak (-2)
   Capital and Earnings         Adequate (+1)    Adequate (+1)
   Risk Position                Moderate (-1)    Moderate (-1)
   Funding                        Average          Average
   and Liquidity                 Adequate (0)    Adequate (0)
   Support                           (0)              (0)
   ALAC Support                      (0)              (0)
   GRE Support                       (0)              (0)
   Group Support                     (0)              (0)
   Government Support                (0)              (0)
   Additional Factors                (0)              (0)

  SACP--Stand-alone credit profile.

  Ravnaq-bank  
                                     To              From
   Issuer Credit Rating        B-/Negative/B     B-/Stable/B
   SACP                              b-               b
   Anchor                            b+               b+
   Business Position              Weak (-2)        Weak (-2)
   Capital and Earnings          Strong (+2)      Strong (+2)
   Risk Position                  Weak (-2)      Moderate (-1)
   Funding                       Average and     Average and
   Liquidity                     Adequate(0)      Adequate(0)
   Support                           (0)              (0)
   ALAC Support                      (0)              (0)
   GRE Support                       (0)              (0)
   Group Support                     (0)              (0)
   Government Support                (0)              (0)
   Additional Factors                (0)              (-1)

  SACP--Stand-alone credit profile.


RUSSNEFT PJSC: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa1 & Alters Outlook to Neg.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded RussNeft PJSC's corporate
family rating to Caa1 from B1 and probability of default rating to
Caa1-PD from B1-PD. RussNeft's outlook has been changed to negative
from rating under review. This concludes the review for downgrade
initiated by Moody's on March 13, 2020.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The oil and gas
sector has been one of the sectors most significantly affected by
the shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment,
and oil prices. More specifically, the weaknesses in RussNeft's
credit profile have left it vulnerable to shifts in market
sentiment in these unprecedented operating conditions and RussNeft
remains vulnerable to the outbreak continuing to spread, and oil
prices remaining low. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a
social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial
implications for public health and safety. Its action reflects the
impact on RussNeft of the breadth and severity of the shock, and
the broad deterioration in credit quality it has triggered, with a
backdrop of weak liquidity.

The downgrade of RussNeft's rating to Caa1 with a negative outlook
reflects (1) RussNeft's weak liquidity, which has been amplified by
the severe drop in oil prices and aggressive liquidity management,
both of which have materially increased the probability of default
in the current oil price environment; (2) Moody's expectation that
the company's credit metrics will materially deteriorate over the
next 12-18 months because of the continuing drop in oil prices and
anticipated production cuts under the new OPEC+ agreement, with
limited potential for recovery over the following 12-18 months; and
(3) the company's elevated corporate governance risks stemming from
substantial related-party transactions with other businesses of the
Gutseriev family which controls 46.5% of RussNeft's voting shares.

As of December 31, 2019, RussNeft's liquidity comprised cash and
cash equivalents of RUB3.0 billion, and operating cash flow of
below RUB10 billion which Moody's expects the company to generate
over the next 12 months assuming the average oil price for 2020 at
$25 per barrel of Urals. This liquidity will be insufficient to
cover the company's debt maturities of RUB7.2 billion (including
lease payments) over the same period, capital spending which
Moody's estimates at up to RUB19 billion and dividend payouts of at
least $60 million on the company's preferred shares, as anticipated
by its dividend policy.

RussNeft's borrowings mostly comprise a loan from Bank VTB, PJSC
(VTB, Baa3 stable), which represents around 92% of the company's
debt portfolio. RussNeft is to repay the outstanding $1.17 billion
loan in quarterly instalments totalling $91 million per year in
2020-25 and a $625 million final payment in 2026.

Moody's expects that in 2020 RussNeft's leverage will increase to
8.0x total debt/EBITDA from 3.2x as of year-end 2019; retained cash
flow (RCF)/debt will decline below 5% from 24.5%; and
EBITDA/interest expense will decline to 3.0x from 6.0x (all metrics
are Moody's-adjusted, with Moody's-adjusted debt including a RUB20
billion obligation under a forward contract to purchase RussNeft's
shares from VTB signed in late 2019, and around RUB53 billion of
financial guarantees issued for related parties). This
deterioration in credit metrics will be driven by the imminent
decline in EBITDA and operating cash flow because of the drop in
oil prices and production cuts under the OPEC+ agreement, along
with the likely increase in debt to cover the cash burn. Moody's
views the potential for recovery in the company's leverage and
RCF/debt in 2021 as limited, as long as its adjusted debt remains
inflated by obligations attributed to related-party transactions.

Moody's expects RussNeft's post-dividend FCF to be negative in
2020, driven by high capital spending and committed dividend
payouts on preferred shares, which are denominated in US dollar and
therefore will increase in rouble terms (the company's reporting
currency), amid lower operating cash flow. In 2019, RussNeft
updated its dividend policy which now anticipates payouts of at
least $60 million per year on its preferred shares, up from $40
million earlier.

RussNeft's rating also factors in (1) amortisation of the company's
loans and received prepayments under oil supply contracts, and
significant interest expenses; (2) its significant related-party
transactions and risks related to its concentrated ownership
structure; and (3) the sensitivity of the company's financial
metrics to the volatility in oil prices and the rouble exchange
rate.

RussNeft's rating takes into account the company's (1) sizeable
reserves and sustainable hydrocarbon production absent the OPEC+
restrictions; and (2) historically moderate leverage, robust cash
flow metrics and positive free cash flow, although all these will
deteriorate on low oil prices and production cuts.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE (ESG) CONSIDERATIONS

RussNeft is exposed to carbon transition risk in the long term. Oil
demand could peak in the next 10-15 years, well before natural gas,
which has a central role in the energy transition of power
generation away from carbon. The company has a low share of gas in
its production and reserves.

Corporate governance risks stem from the company's concentrated
ownership structure and substantial related-party transactions,
which frequently lack transparency and clear economic rationale.
RussNeft's key shareholders are the Gutseriev family (46.5% of
voting shares) and Glencore plc (Baa1 stable, 33% of voting
shares), with around 20% of ordinary shares in free float on the
Moscow Exchange.

RussNeft occasionally provides guarantees for related-party oil
supply contracts and borrowings, including those related to the M&A
activity of other businesses of the Gutseriev family. As of
year-end 2019, RussNeft had RUB60 billion of guarantees issued for
and to non-consolidated related parties, which represented 37% of
its Moody's-adjusted debt.

In H2 2019, RussNeft's subsidiary Russneft Cyprus Limited signed a
long-term forward contract with Business Finance LLC, an affiliate
of VTB, to purchase RussNeft's 33.2 million preference shares which
Business Finance LLC acquired earlier in the same period, in 2026
for RUB21 billion. In the same period, RussNeft provided a RUB23
billion financial guarantee to Business Finance LLC for Miraholl
Holdings Limited, an entity controlled by the Gutseriev family, and
a RUB13.5 billion short-term loan to an undisclosed third party,
without disclosing details and economic rationale of these
transactions.

As of December 31, 2019, RussNeft had a RUB51 billion outstanding
balance of legacy loans provided to its related parties, companies
of the GEA Group, through which RussNeft participates in oil
exploration and production projects in the Republic of Azerbaijan.
RussNeft consolidated these loans at the time of the acquisition of
significant influence over the GEA Group from a related party in
2014 for $870 million, including cash payment of $9 million. The
GEA Group currently does not generate cash flows sufficient to
repay these loans.

RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative rating outlook reflects uncertainty over RussNeft's
ability to materially improve its liquidity in the short term,
further elevating the probability of default under its bank debt.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

An upgrade of RussNeft's rating is unlikely over the next 12-18
months, given the negative outlook. Over time, Moody's could
upgrade the rating if the company (1) materially improves its
liquidity and liquidity management; (2) improves its corporate
governance practices and curtails its loans to and guarantees for
related parties; (3) improves public disclosure of its related
party transactions; (4) maintains its RCF/debt at or above 10%,
debt/EBITDA below 5.0x and EBITDA/interest expense above 2.5x (all
metrics are Moody's-adjusted).

Moody's could downgrade RussNeft's rating if (1) the company fails
to improve its liquidity, increasing the probability of default on
its debt obligations, including in the form of debt restructuring
which Moody's could view as a distressed exchange, a form of
default; or (2) the company's RCF turns negative and
EBITDA/interest expense declines below 1.0x on a sustained basis.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Independent
Exploration and Production Industry published in May 2017.

Headquartered in Moscow, Russia, RussNeft PJSC is a medium-sized
independent oil and gas producer, with key upstream assets located
in Western and Central Siberia, and Volga-Urals. As of December 31,
2019, the company had around 1,305 million barrels of oil
equivalent (boe) of proved oil and gas reserves in accordance with
the Petroleum Resources Management System classification. In 2019,
RussNeft produced 7.1 million tonnes (mt) of crude oil and
condensate (including 0.5 mt produced by companies of the GEA
Group, which is not consolidated by RussNeft) and 2.5 billion cubic
meters (bcm) of gas.

[*] Moody's Takes Action on Three Russian Banks
-----------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service took rating actions on three Russian
banks, namely Bank ZENIT PJSC, SME Bank and Transkapitalbank.
Moody's affirmed the banks' Baseline Credit Assessments, Adjusted
BCAs and their long-term and short-term local and foreign currency
deposit ratings and changed the outlooks on the three banks'
long-term deposit ratings to negative from stable. Concurrently,
the rating agency affirmed the long-term senior unsecured local
currency debt ratings of Bank Zenit and SME Bank and changed the
outlooks on these ratings to negative from stable. Moody's also
affirmed the three banks' long-term and short-term local and
foreign currency Counterparty Risk Ratings and their long-term and
short-term Counterparty Risk Assessments.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Its rating action reflects the increasingly difficult operating
environment in Russia, stemming from the collapse of the oil price
and the coronavirus outbreak, which will result in additional
hardship for a large array of banks' borrowers. This, in turn, will
lead to a weakening of Russian banks' solvency metrics, in
particular asset quality and profitability. The banks affected by
its rating action are unlikely to have sufficient pre-provision
income to fully absorb the increased provisioning charges, raising
the risk of losses and capital erosion. At the same time, the
rating agency expects that the affected banks' funding and
liquidity profiles will remain broadly stable.

Since March 2020, Russia's banking system has been challenged by
the oil price plunge, which has resulted in local-currency
depreciation, as well as the coronavirus outbreak, which has led to
unprecedented social distancing measures taken by the government
that will hurt the domestic economy, in particular a large array of
small and medium-sized enterprises working in the segments of
passenger transport industry, tourism, nonfood retail, cafes,
restaurants, hotels and others. Concurrently, individuals employed
in the aforementioned sectors will also face financial
difficulties. Larger corporates in general remain more resilient to
the current economic slump; however, they will also face a
reduction in revenues resulting from weakened consumer demand.
These factors will ultimately weigh on the banks' asset quality and
profitability in 2020 and, potentially, in 2021.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. Its rating action reflects the impact on Russian banks
of the breadth and severity of the shock, and the pressure on
banks' credit profiles it has triggered.

  -- Bank Zenit

The affirmation of Bank Zenit's b1 BCA, Ba3 long-term deposit and
Ba3 long-term local currency senior unsecured debt ratings and the
change of the outlook on the bank's long-term deposit and debt
ratings to negative from stable reflect, on the one hand, the
bank's moderate exposure to the loan segments and industries most
vulnerable to the current economic slump, and on the other hand,
its weak pre-provision revenue generation which provides relatively
little defense against increased provisioning charges and hence
there is an elevated risk of capital erosion.

As of January 1, 2020, Bank Zenit's loans to SME segment accounted
for 8% of the bank's total loans. According to the bank's
management data, as of the same reporting date, another 8% of Bank
Zenit's loans were issued to the sub-segments most vulnerable to
the lockdown resulting from the coronavirus outbreak, such as
hotels, restaurants, nonfood retail and transport. The bank's loans
to individuals accounted for 28% of the total loan book, and were
virtually equally split between mortgages and consumer loans.

Moody's believes that in its hostile operating environment in
Russia all classes of borrower segments will show a degree of asset
quality deterioration, in particular loans to SMEs and unsecured
consumer loans to individuals. The rating agency estimates that
Bank Zenit's weak pre-provision income generation, with a net
interest margin of 3.2% and cost-to-income ratio of 78% reported in
2019, will be insufficient to cover the increased loan loss
provisions thus leading to Bank Zenit reporting losses. This in
turn will erode the bank's already moderate capital adequacy levels
reflected in the ratio of tangible common equity to risk-weighted
assets of 9.9% as of January 1, 2020.

Bank Zenit's Ba3 long-term deposit ratings incorporate the bank's
BCA of b1 and a one-notch rating uplift reflecting Moody's
assessment of a moderate probability of affiliate support to the
bank from its controlling shareholder, the oil company Tatneft PJSC
(Baa2 stable).

  -- SME Bank

The affirmation of SME Bank's b2 BCA, Ba2 long-term deposit and Ba2
long-term local currency senior unsecured debt ratings and the
change of the outlook on the bank's long-term deposit and debt
ratings to negative from stable reflect the bank's focus on the
loans to smaller companies and the rapid growth in this lending
over the past two years, as well as its relatively weak
pre-provision revenue generation. This puts the bank at greater
risk of capital erosion.

Following its official mandate for extending and promoting
financing to Russia's SMEs, SME Bank is heavily exposed both to
commercial lending to SMEs, as well as the government-induced
programmes aimed at supporting businesses amidst the current
economic downturn. As of January 1, 2020, SME Bank's net loans to
SME segment accounted for 57% of the bank's total assets. This loan
portfolio is relatively unseasoned, having doubled in 2019, and its
quality has therefore not been tested through the cycle. According
to the bank's management data, as of January 1, 2020, the
sub-segments most vulnerable to the lockdown resulting from the
coronavirus outbreak (such as hotels, restaurants, nonfood retail,
transport and other leisure activities) accounted for approximately
10% of the bank's total loans.

Moody's believes that in its hostile operating environment in
Russia all classes of SME loans will show a significant degree of
asset quality deterioration. The rating agency estimates that SME
Bank's weak pre-provision income generation, with a net interest
margin of around 3% and cost-to-income ratio exceeding 70% in 2019,
will be insufficient to cover the increased loan loss provisions
thus leading to SME Bank reporting losses. This in turn will erode
the bank's currently good capital adequacy levels reflected in the
ratio of TCE to RWAs of 15.6% as of January 1, 2020.

SME Bank's Ba2 long-term deposit ratings incorporate the bank's BCA
of b2 and a three-notch rating uplift reflecting Moody's assessment
of a very high probability of government support for the bank,
given its full government ownership and SME Bank's key role in the
government's programme for rechanneling affordable loan facilities
to SME sector.

  -- Transkapitalbank

The affirmation of Transkapitalbank's b3 BCA and B3 long-term
foreign currency deposit rating and the change of the rating
outlook to negative from stable reflect increased downside risks
for the bank's standalone creditworthiness amid deteriorated
operating environment, as well as its relatively weak solvency
metrics.

Transkapitalbank's exposure to SME and consumer lending accounted
for 37% and 3%, respectively, of its total gross loans as of
September 30, 2019. In Moody's view, the bank has a modest revenue
generation capacity to absorb additional credit losses, largely
owing to a high share of non-performing loans. The level of problem
loans (defined as stage 3 loans) accounted for a very high 29% of
total gross loans as of September 30, 2019, a minor improvement
from the 33% ratio reported as of the end of 2018.

The bank's capital cushion is limited in this context of high
problem loans given its TCE/Total Assets ratio of 6.8% as of
September 30, 2019, and problem lending was equivalent to 100% of
the bank's total loss-absorption buffer of loan-loss reserves and
TCE. The rating agency considers that downside risks for
Transkapitalbank's credit profile will increase in the next 12-18
months, owing to declining profitability and, ultimately, capital
as a result of the elevated provisioning charges.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: Bank ZENIT PJSC

Affirmations:

Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed ba3

Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed b1

Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed NP(cr)

Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed Ba2(cr)

Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed NP

Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed Ba2

Short-term Bank Deposits, Affirmed NP

Long-term Bank Deposits, Affirmed Ba3, Outlook Changed To Negative
From Stable

Senior Unsecured, Affirmed Ba3, Outlook Changed To Negative From
Stable

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

Issuer: SME Bank

Affirmations:

Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed b2

Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed b2

Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed NP(cr)

Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed Ba1(cr)

Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed NP

Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed Ba1

Short-term Bank Deposits Affirmed NP

Long-term Bank Deposits, Affirmed Ba2, Outlook Changed To Negative
From Stable

Senior Unsecured, Affirmed Ba2, Outlook Changed To Negative From
Stable

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

Issuer: Transkapitalbank

Affirmations:

Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed b3

Baseline Credit Assessment, Affirmed b3

Short-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed NP(cr)

Long-term Counterparty Risk Assessment, Affirmed B2(cr)

Short-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed NP

Long-term Counterparty Risk Rating, Affirmed B2

Short-term Bank Deposits Affirmed NP

Long-term Bank Deposits, Affirmed B3, Outlook Changed To Negative
From Stable

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Banks
Methodology published in November 2019.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Upgrades of the three affected banks' deposit ratings are unlikely
in the next 12 to 18 months given the current negative ratings
outlooks and unfavourable operating conditions.

The affected banks' deposit and debt ratings could be downgraded if
their financial fundamentals, notably asset quality, capitalisation
and profitability, were to deteriorate materially.



=========
S P A I N
=========

DISTRIBUIDORA INTERNACIONAL: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa2, Outlook Neg.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the long-term corporate
family rating of Spanish grocer Distribuidora Internacional de
Alimentacion to Caa2 from Caa1 and its probability of default
rating to Caa3-PD from Caa1-PD. Moody's has also downgraded DIA's
senior unsecured long-term rating to Ca from Caa2 and its senior
unsecured MTN program rating to (P)Ca from (P)Caa2. The outlook
remains negative.

"We think that DIA's probability of default has increased after it
announced a possible debt-for-debt exchange on its bonds," said
Vincent Gusdorf, a Moody's Vice President - Senior Credit Officer
and lead analyst for DIA. "We would likely consider such a
transaction as a default under its methodology. At this stage, we
think that DIA does not have enough liquidity to repay its EUR300
million bond due in April 2021," Mr. Gusdorf added.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented.

On April 14, 2020, DIA said its access to debt markets had
deteriorated following the Coronavirus outbreak and that it could
make a debt-for-debt exchange offer on its bonds as a result[1].
Moody's would view any offer leading bondholders to receive less
than the obligation's original promise to pay as a distressed
exchange and therefore as a default. However, Moody's understands
that DIA has not yet started formal negotiations with its
bondholders.

Moody's views DIA's liquidity as weak. At year-end 2019, it had
only EUR164 million of cash and EUR57 million of undrawn credit
facilities. It also obtained in January 2020 a binding commitment
for up to EUR200 million of additional senior secured financing.
These liquidity sources do not suffice to cover EUR325 million of
short-term debt, assuming no renewal of bilateral credit
facilities, and the repayment of a EUR300 million bond due on April
28, 2021. In addition, the rating agency forecasts about EUR150
million of negative Moody’s-adjusted free cash flows in 2020.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety.

Several management changes point to weak corporate governance and
uncertainties around future capital structure. CEO Karl-Heinz
Holland will leave DIA in May after spending just one year in this
position. Stephan DuCharme, currently non-executive Chairman of
DIA's board of directors, will become executive Chairman. Stephan
DuCharme is also a managing partner at the investment fund
LetterOne, which owns 75% of DIA's capital. The successor of
Karl-Heinz Holland will be DIA's fifth CEO over a two-year period.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

The CFR is located at the level of Distribuidora Internacional de
Alimentacion S.A., the top entity of the group. DIA's gross
reported debt stood at EUR2,165 million at year-end 2019 and
encompasses EUR600 million unsecured bonds, which Moody's rates at
Ca, two notches below the CFR because of their subordination to
secured debt. This other debt includes EUR980 million of credit
facilities, which benefit from a security package that includes
DIA's international assets. DIA also has access to EUR280 million
of secured super senior credit facilities.

Moody's Loss Given Default analysis is based on an expected family
recovery rate of 50%, which reflects a capital structure comprising
secured bank debts and unsecured notes.

RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects Moody's view that DIA's default risk
has increased after it announced a possible debt-for-debt exchange
on its bonds. It also factors in the sizable cash burn forecast
over the next 12 months.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Rating upside is unlikely in the near-term. Over time, there could
be positive pressure on DIA's ratings if earnings and cash flows
improve significantly thanks to a successful implementation of the
transformation plan. A positive rating action would also require
that DIA restores an adequate liquidity, including a clear plan to
address future debt maturities, and a sustainable capital
structure.

Conversely, Moody's could downgrade DIA's rating if it makes an
offer to its bondholders that would lead them to receive less than
the initial promise to pay or if it failed to service interest
payments.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Retail Industry
published in May 2018.

COMPANY PROFILE

Based in Madrid, Spain, Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion
is one of the main food discounters in Europe, generating EUR6.9
billion in revenue in 2019. The company operated 6,626 stores as of
December 31, 2019. Of those, 4,236 were in Spain, 576 in Portugal,
934 in Argentina and 880 in Brazil. In 2019, Spain accounted for
61% of the company's revenue.

JOYE MEDIA: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, On Review for Downgrade
-----------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to B3 from B1 the
corporate family rating and to B3-PD from B1-PD the probability of
default rating of Joye Media S.L., the parent entity above the
restricted group that owns Imagina Media Audiovisual, S.L., a
leading global integrated international sports, media and
entertainment group. Concurrently, Moody's has downgraded to B2
from Ba3 the ratings of the EUR300 million senior secured first
lien term loan (TLA -- due in 2024), the EUR380 million amortizing
senior secured term loan (TLB -- due in 2025) and the EUR60 million
senior secured revolving credit facility (RCF -- due in 2024)
issued by Invictus Media S.L.U. and Imagina. Moody's has also
downgraded to Caa2 from B3 the EUR180 million senior secured second
lien facility issued by Invictus and Imagina (due in 2025). The
outlook was changed to ratings under review from stable for all
entities.

"The downgrade to B3 reflects the company's weaker than expected
operating performance in 2019, its expectation of a material
contraction in the company's revenues and profits in 2020 on the
back of the coronavirus outbreak, and the resulting deterioration
in credit metrics and liquidity," says Victor Garcia Capdevila, a
Moody's AVP-Analyst and lead analyst for Joye.

"The ratings remain on review for further downgrade due to the
fragile liquidity profile of the company. The rating could be
downgraded after the review process if the company fails to improve
its liquidity in light of upcoming cash needs in the next months,"
adds Mr. Garcia.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented.

Joye's main business division, sports rights management, has been
affected by the suspension and cancellation of sports events across
the world, and in particular, the Spanish La Liga, due to the
coronavirus outbreak. The other major business segments such as
audiovisual services and Mediapro studio, focused on the creation,
design and production of entertainment content, have also been
negatively affected by the social distancing measures and the
lockdowns imposed in most of the countries where the company
operates.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. Its action reflect the impact on Joye of the breadth
and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit
quality it has triggered.

Joye's performance in 2019 was weaker than expected. The company's
reported normalized EBITDA in 2019 was EUR224 million, about EUR40
million or 15%, below Moody's expectations. Its EBITA margin
dropped to 3.9% in 2019 from 6.8% in 2018. The main drivers of this
underperformance were: (1) higher investments in international
rights, mainly in Canada and Chile; (2) the deterioration in its
free-to-air channel, Gol TV, owing to a material fall in
advertising revenue; and (3) timing differences due to some
free-to-air broadcasters requesting delays in the delivery of
content to 2020 due to weaker TV ad spending in the second half of
2019. In addition, the company suffered a EUR306 million working
capital outflow, including the EUR221 million payment to its JV
partner BeIn Sports, that translated into material negative free
cash flow generation of EUR-234 million. This led to a
deterioration in credit metrics, with Moody's adjusted gross
leverage increasing to 4.6x in 2019 from 3.7x in 2018, and interest
coverage, measured as EBITA/interest, reducing to 1.4x in 2019 from
2.6x in 2018.

Moody's anticipates a significant operational disruption in 2020
due to the coronavirus outbreak. The rating agency estimates that
EBITDA could drop between 25% to 50% in 2020 depending on whether
the Spanish football league is resumed at the end of June or, on
the contrary, the remainder of the 2019/2020 season is cancelled.

The company's liquidity profile is very tight. Moody's estimates
that as of the end of March 2020, Joye had a cash balance of around
EUR200 million. Its EUR60 million revolving credit facility is
fully drawn. The company faces a number of sizeable cash outflows
in 2020, including (1) EUR48 million of debt amortization, split
between Q2 2020 and Q4 2020; (2) a negative change in working
capital of around EUR35 million; (3) capital expenditures between
EUR50 million - EUR60 million; and (4) other cash outflows of
around EUR5 million. Furthermore, the company needs to start making
sizeable payments in the summer related to the French League 1
football rights. This, together with Moody's expectation of a
negative free cash flow generation between EUR30 million -EUR35
million leads to a very fragile liquidity profile that is
vulnerable to unexpected cash outflows and the possibility of a
more prolonged period of coronavirus-related operational disruption
that currently anticipated.

In addition, Moody's expects the company to breach the maintenance
leverage covenant of its term loan facilities in June/September
2020, as the covenant tightens overtime.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The ratings are on review for further downgrade. The review process
will focus on the measures that the company may take to alleviate
its near-term liquidity pressures, the degree to which the spread
of the coronavirus across its key countries of operation will
affect the company's operating and financial performance in 2020 as
well as the shape of the recovery in 2021. Moody's expects to
conclude the review within the next three months.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

Joye's probability of default rating of B3-PD reflects the expected
recovery rate of 50% typically assumed by Moody's for a capital
structure that consists of secured first-lien and second-lien
facilities with financial covenants. The B2 rated EUR300 million
TLA and the EUR380 million term loan B are ranked highest in
priority of claims pari passu with the EUR60 million RCF. The loans
are secured against share pledges and benefit from guarantees from
subsidiaries accounting for 80% of group EBITDA.

The lowest ranking debt instrument in the liability waterfall is
the EUR180 million second lien term loan (rated Caa2), which
provides buffer to the B2-rated debt in the capital structure.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: Joye Media S.L.

Downgraded and Placed On Review For Further Downgrade:

Probability of Default Rating, Downgraded to B3-PD from B1-PD

Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to B3 from B1

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Ratings Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Imagina Media Audiovisual, S.L.

Downgraded and Placed On Review For Further Downgrade:

Backed Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Downgraded to B2 from
Ba3

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Ratings Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Invictus Media S.L.U.

Downgraded and Placed On Review For Further Downgrade:

Backed Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Downgraded to B2 from
Ba3

Backed Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Downgraded to Caa2 from
B3

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Ratings Under Review From Stable

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Service Industry published in October 2016.

COMPANY PROFILE

Joye Media S.L. is the ultimate holding company of Imagina Media
Audiovisual, S.L., a leading integrated international media group
with operations in sports rights management, audiovisual services
and content production. It is present in more than 150 countries
and employs more than 6,600 people. In 2019, Joye reported revenue
and normalized EBITDA of EUR1.8 billion and EUR224 million,
respectively.

Joye is majority owned (53.5%) by Kunshan Techonology Investment
(HK) Limited, an entity controlled by the Chinese private equity
group Orient Hontai Capital.



===========
S W E D E N
===========

QUIMPER AB: Moody's Affirms B2 CFR, Alters Outlook to Negative
--------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has changed the outlook on Quimper AB's
ratings to negative from stable. Concurrently, Moody's affirmed the
B2 corporate family rating, the B2-PD probability of default rating
the B1 ratings of the Senior secured 1st Lien Term Loan B and
Senior secured revolving credit facility and the Caa1 rating of the
Senior secured 2nd Lien Term Loan.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented, and it views them
as a social risk factor under its assessment of ESG
considerations.

Its rating action reflects an increased risk that Ahlsell's key
credit ratios will not be restored to the requirements for the
current B2 rating, in light of slightly weaker profitability in
2019 and the potential for macroeconomic weakness in Ahlsell's key
markets as a consequence of the Covid-19 outbreak. For 2019 (on a
pro forma basis), Moody's adjusted debt/EBITDA and operating margin
stood at 6.8x and 6.1% respectively, against the previous
expectation of improvements. Given that the current environment
might prove challenging in terms of respecting factors that could
lead to a downgrade -- failure to reduce and sustain debt/EBITDA
below 6.5x and operating margin remaining below 7% - Moody's sees
an increased risk for a ratings downgrade over the next quarters,
in particular in a scenario of weakened free cash flow generation.

The rating affirmation reflects Ahlsell's solid liquidity profile
and superior track record to generate free cash flows, with only 1
year of negative FCF since 2006, provide some cushion in a scenario
of weakening operating performance. Moody's previously had modelled
for the absolute debt level to come down by means of debt
prepayment in 2020, which will most likely not take place as long
as revenue visibility remains low due to the current crisis.
Nevertheless, the affirmation of the rating rests on the company
parking free cash flows on the balance sheet and uses it first and
foremost to pay down debt.

OUTLOOK

The negative outlook balances potential negative impact from the
coronavirus outbreak, which in its downside case translates to
gross and debt/EBITDA increasing to 8.2x and 6.9x in 2020 from 6.8x
and 6.2x in 2019, with the company's solid liquidity profile and
expectations to still generate positive FCF. The relatively high
profitability compared to other peers in the distribution industry,
historically above 7%, and long track record of sustaining high
irrespective of market environment also acts as a mitigating factor
to potential negative ratings pressure.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

A prerequisite for considering stabilizing the outlook is that the
company pays down debt as originally planned.

Furthermore, positive ratings pressure would arise should
debt/EBITDA trend toward 5.0x on a sustained basis, operating
margins of 10% or above and retained cash flow (RCF) / debt above
10%.

The company's ratings could be downgraded should debt/EBITDA stay
above 6.5x, operating margins remaining below 7% and RCF/debt trend
toward mid-single digits in percentage terms.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Distribution &
Supply Chain Services Industry published in June 2018.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS:

Affirmations:

Issuer: Quimper AB

LT Corporate Family Rating, Affirmed B2

Probability of Default Rating, Affirmed B2-PD

1st Lien Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Affirmed B1

2nd Lien Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Affirmed Caa1

Outlook Actions:

Issuer: Quimper AB

Outlook, Changed to Negative from Stable

PROFILE

Headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, Quimper AB (Ahlsell) is a
pan-Nordic wholesale distributor providing professional users with
a wide assortment of goods and services in the HVAC, electricals
and tools and supplies segments. The company is active in all four
Nordic countries, with Sweden generating 66% of revenue, Norway
19%, Finland 12%, and Denmark and other regions 2%. The company is
owned by funds affiliated with CVC Capital Partners. Pro forma for
2019, the company reported revenue of SEK32.7 billion and EBITDA of
SEK3.3 billion.



===========
T U R K E Y
===========

DOGUS HOLDING: S&P Lowers National Scale Rating to 'TrCCC+'
-----------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its national scale rating on Turkish
investment holding company Dogus Holding A.S. (Dogus)  to 'TrCCC+'
from 'TrBB'.

S&P said, "The COVID 19 pandemic will likely weaken Dogus' dividend
income, resulting in a high reliance on asset sales, which we
believe could occur at a meaningful discount in the current
macroeconomic environment. Dogus' dividend base is vulnerable to
sectors that are highly likely to face ongoing disruption from the
COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, the tourism, food and beverage,
and automotive sectors, which together comprise about 55% of Dogus'
total portfolio value, are likely to suffer in the months ahead. We
therefore see reduced dividend prospects for Dogus, and believe
this could further lower its cash flow adequacy ratio.

"In the year to date, Dogus has received EUR149 million in proceeds
from asset disposals. However, we expect that Dogus' current cash
holdings could be insufficient to fully cover all its debt
maturities in the next 12-18 months without further disposals.
Therefore, Dogus is highly dependent on further asset sales over
that period to cover its upcoming debt maturities at the holding
level, and also at the group level. In our view, in the current
macroeconomic environment, such asset sales could be difficult to
execute, or could only be possible at a meaningful price discount.
The primary assets earmarked for disposal are foreign hotels.

"In our base case, we expect Dogus' cash flow adequacy ratio to be
0.5x, excluding group receivables and group disposal proceeds.
Currently, we also calculate a high loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of
about 54.5%, which compares with an LTV ratio of about 44% at
year-end 2019. When calculating the LTV ratio, we applied a 30%
haircut to the latest available valuation of unlisted assets to
reflect the currently depressed market valuations. Dogus' net debt
of about EUR2.2 billion includes financial debt at the holding
level, as well as financial guarantees for debt at investee
companies.

"To preserve cash, Dogus has deferred EUR3.5 million of interest
payments due in March 2020 for three months, with the agreement of
its lending banks. In our view, the lenders will receive adequate
compensation. We understand that Dogus is servicing all its other
financial obligations, including EUR2.2 billion of refinanced debt
and other facilities. We would likely consider future material
postponements of debt service as a de-facto restructuring, and
therefore as tantamount to default absent adequate offsetting
compensation."


TURKCELL FINANSMAN: Fitch Affirms Then Withdraws 'B+' LT IDR
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Turkcell Finansman A.S.'s 'B+' Foreign
and Local Currency Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings and 'AA-(tur)'
National Long-Term Rating and have subsequently withdrawn all the
ratings for commercial purposes. The Outlooks are Stable.

The ratings were withdrawn for commercial purposes.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

TFS's ratings are based on potential support from the parent -
Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S (Turkcell, BB- /Stable). Fitch
believes Turkcell would have a strong propensity to support TFS
given (i) its 100% stake and full operational control; (ii) the
close integration of the subsidiary with its parent; and (iii)
TFS's role in customer-base acquisition for Turkcell.

TFS provides Turkcell retail customers with loans on mobile
devices. The core product is small-ticket unsecured loans and the
tenor was recently restricted to six months by the local regulator.
This limits TFS's short to medium-term growth potential.
Nevertheless, TFS remains strategically important for the group,
which underpins its support assumptions.

TFS sells its products directly via Turkcell's network across
Turkey with 3,300 sales-points. Its business model, which relies
heavily on digital integration with shops, allows TFS to limit
fixed costs.

The one-notch difference between the ratings of Turkcell and TFS
mainly reflects the subsidiary's focus on a different segment
(finance rather than telecom services) but also its short operating
history and different branding. These factors, in Fitch's view,
moderately reduce the potential reputational risk for the parent or
potential negative impact on other parts of the Turkcell group in
case of TFS's default.

The Stable Outlook reflects that on Turkcell.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Rating sensitivities are no longer relevant given its withdrawal.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Financial Institutions
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS

TFS's ratings are linked to those of Turkcell.



=============
U K R A I N E
=============

VF UKRAINE: Fitch Affirms 'B' LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Stable
--------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Private Joint Stock
Company VF Ukraine's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating to Stable from
Positive and affirmed all ratings.

The rating action follows the revision of the Outlook on Ukraine's
Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR to Stable from Positive on April 22,
2020. The macroeconomic environment has deteriorated, but Fitch's
assessment of VF Ukraine's market position and operating profile is
unchanged.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Country Ceiling Constraint: VF Ukraine's ratings are constrained by
Ukraine's Country Ceiling. The revision of the Outlook reflects the
likely correlation of rating actions with further changes of the
sovereign rating, assuming the Country Ceiling moves in line with
the sovereign IDR.

COVID-19 Impact on Revenue: Fitch expects the ongoing coronavirus
outbreak to have a moderate impact on revenue in 2020, mainly due
to declines in handset sales and a drop in roaming revenues. The
latter contributed 5%-6% to service revenue in 2019. Economic
contraction and quarantine measures will also put pressure on
revenues in B2B, especially on small and medium-sized entities.
However, the company has limited exposure, with B2B representing
around 7% of the company's revenues in 2019.

Fitch envisages the decline in revenue due to the COVID-19 fallout
will be partially compensated for by continued underlying ARPU
growth due to migration of customers to 4G from 2G and 3G. However,
the pace of this growth is likely to slow compared to its previous
expectations. Overall Fitch expects 2020 revenue to decline by low
single digits, with growth resuming in 2021. Its revenue forecasts
for 2020-2022 do not factor in any contribution from the
conflict-stricken eastern part of the country.

FX Risk, Headroom Remains: The Ukrainian hryvnia has depreciated by
12% against the US dollar since January 1, 2020. Its forecasts
already assume an average rate of UAH28.3 to the dollar for 2020.
The company is exposed to significant FX risks given its
considerable FX mismatch (100% of debt, 80% of capex and 20% of
operating expenses are denominated in dollars), while revenue is
mostly in hryvnia.

Its revised rating case, which takes into account the impact of
COVID-19, envisages that net debt/EBITDA will rise to 1.9x in 2020
from 1.7x in its previous forecast. Fitch expects FFO net leverage
of around 2.0x in 2020, gradually declining to 1.7x by 2022 as the
economic situation improves in 2021 and growth resumes. There is
still enough headroom within the FFO net leverage downgrade
threshold of 3.5x for the company to withstand further hryvnia
depreciation. However, there may be further downside risks to its
forecasts, depending on the duration of the crisis and its impact
on the economy.

Strong Market Position: VF Ukraine is the second-largest mobile
operator in Ukraine, and Fitch does not expect the crisis to affect
its competitive position. It held an around 37% market share by
subscribers in mobile at end-4Q19 with 19.7 million subscribers,
which has remained broadly stable over the last five years.
Competition is likely to remain moderate in the medium term given
the growth opportunities in ARPU from gradual migration of
subscribers to 4G from 2G and 3G.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

VF Ukraine's peer group includes emerging market telecom operators
Kcell JSC (BB/Positive), Silknet JSC (B+/Stable), PJSC Megafon
(BB+/Stable), PJSC Mobile TeleSystems (BB+/Stable), Turkcell
Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (BB-/Stable) and Turk Telekomunikasyon
A.S. (BB-/Stable).

VF Ukraine's operating profile compares well with that of Kcell and
Silknet by size, market position, competitive environment and
profitability. However, Kcell does not have significant FX risks
and corporate governance weaknesses, while Silknet is better
diversified with a presence in the fixed-line/broadband segment.

The Russian and Turkish peers are significantly larger and, except
for Megafon, benefit from product diversification. Like Turkcell
and Turk Telecomunikasyon, VF Ukraine's IDR is restricted by the
relevant Country Ceiling. FX risk also results in tighter leverage
thresholds for any given rating level for all three compared with
other rated companies in the sector.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - No revenue is forecast from the conflict-stricken eastern part
of the country for 2020-2022

  - Revenue from the rest of Ukraine to decline by
low-single-digits in 2020, with revenue growth resuming by mid to
high single digits in 2021 and low teens in 2022

  - EBITDA margin at 40%-41% in 2020-2022

  - Capex around 26% of revenue in 2020, easing to 22% in 2021 and
20% in 2022

  - Dividend payments of around UAH2.1 billion in 2021 and UAH0.3
billion in 2022, subject to compliance with covenants contained in
the proposed notes documentation

  - No material cash outflow on M&As

RATING SENSITIVITIES

VF Ukraine

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade

  - Upgrade of the Ukraine Country Ceiling (currently in line with
the sovereign rating), together with FFO net leverage below 3.0x on
a sustained basis, without any significant deterioration in the
competitive and regulatory environment

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade

  - Downgrade of the Ukraine Country Ceiling

  - FFO net leverage trending above 3.5x on a sustained basis in
the presence of significant FX risks

  - Competitive weaknesses and market-share erosion, leading to
significant deterioration in pre-dividend FCF generation

Ukraine

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to
positive rating action/upgrade:

  - General government debt/GDP returning to a firm downward path
over the medium term, for example due to a post-coronavirus-shock
fiscal consolidation

  - Reduction in external financial vulnerabilities, for example
due to a strengthened external balance sheet and greater financing
flexibility

  - Increased confidence that progress in reforms will lead to
improvement in governance standards and higher growth prospects
while preserving the improvements in macroeconomic stability

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to
negative rating action/downgrade:

  - Increased external financing pressures or increased
macroeconomic instability, for example stemming from failure to
agree an IMF programme or delays to disbursements from it

  - Persistent increase in general government debt, for example due
to a more pronounced and longer period of fiscal loosening,
economic contraction or currency depreciation

  - Sustained external or political/geopolitical shocks that weaken
the macroeconomic stability, growth prospects and Ukraine's fiscal
and external position

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Sufficient Liquidity: VF Ukraine had an adequate liquidity position
with a cash balance of around UAH1.9 billion at end-2019 and
forecast positive post-dividend FCF generation averaging around
UAH0.7 billion a year in 2020-2022. This compares favourably with
its maturity schedule for the loan participation notes with no debt
maturing for at least the next couple of years.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of 3. This means ESG issues are
credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or to the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

VF Ukraine has an ESG Relevance score of 4 for Governance Structure
reflecting the dominant majority shareholder's influence over the
company, absence of independent members on the board and lack of
transparency from its wider group. Although this does not restrict
the rating at the current level, it has a negative impact on the
credit profile, and is relevant to the rating in conjunction with
other factors.

VFU Funding Plc     

  - Senior unsecured; LT B, Affirmed

Private Joint Stock Company VF Ukraine

  - LT IDR B, Affirmed



===========================
U N I T E D   K I N G D O M
===========================

AMIGO LOANS: S&P Keeps 'B' Long-Term ICR on CreditWatch Negative
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings kept on CreditWatch negative its 'B' long-term
issuer credit rating on U.K.-based guarantor lending company Amigo
Loans Ltd. (Amigo) and 'B-' issue rating on Amigo's senior secured
bonds. Our recovery rating on the bonds is unchanged at '5'
(10%-30%; rounded estimate: 10%).

S&P said, "The extension of our CreditWatch negative status
reflects our view of the uncertainties that Amigo is facing from a
regulatory, strategy, and debt-servicing-capacity standpoint. We
believe that the difficult macroeconomic environment will put
additional pressure on Amigo to resume lending after a temporary
stoppage due to the COVID-19 pandemic (see "Outlooks Revised On Six
U.K. Banks On Deepening COVID-19 Downside Risks," published April
23, 2020). During the stoppage, we understand that Amigo will use
internal capital generation to build up its liquidity buffers. We
do not expect any further bond buybacks during the formal sale
process.

"Our base-case scenario is that the U.K. economy will face a sharp
contraction in GDP in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with a
recovery from the second half of 2020. We believe that Amigo's
collections capacity will be under pressure due to the customer
payment holidays, which started in mid-April and will last up to
three months. However, our base-case assumption is that Amigo will
be able to cover its next coupon payment due on July 15, 2020, and
resume lending once economic activity resumes." The company's bond
maturity is in 2024.

In the first nine months of the financial year (FY) ending March
31, 2020, Amigo's net loan book reached GBP722.3 million. Repeat
lending represented 26% of total originations in the third quarter
of FY2020, down from 41% in the same period of FY2019. Amigo
increased its provision for complaints to GBP26.6 million, of which
it has used GBP7.9 million. The remaining balance of GBP18.7
million is set aside to cover complaints that Amigo has received
and not yet processed, but also its estimate of future outflows. We
understand that complaints have dropped off over the past month,
but we monitor the levels closely.

S&P said, "Amigo reported GBP30.2 million in cash in December 2019,
and we expect this level to increase following the company's
strategy to build up its liquidity buffers. We understand that
Amigo is in compliance with its four covenants, although slower
loan book growth than we expect and higher impairment levels may
put pressure on its covenant ratios." These are:

-- Net debt below 80% of the gross loan book.

-- Limitations on revolving credit facility (RCF) drawings if the
proportion of net drawings relative to the gross loan book exceeds
17.5%.

-- A fixed-charge coverage ratio above 2.5x.

-- Impairment levels below 17.5% of the gross loan book.

S&P said, "The CreditWatch extension indicates that we continue to
see an increased risk of Amigo's leverage metrics weakening in the
next three months, particularly if an increase in complaints weighs
on its earnings or impairments increase beyond our forecast,
thereby putting pressure on the covenant ratios.

"We could lower the ratings if Amigo's credit ratios weaken, with
debt to EBIDTA deteriorating above 4.0x on a sustainable basis. We
could also downgrade Amigo if we think that regulatory or
operational issues would make its business model less viable, or if
the sale process appears to be leading to business instability.

"If Amigo is not able to resume lending and its business continues
to amortize, putting pressure on the covenant ratios, we could
lower our ratings, potentially by more than one notch.

"We could remove the ratings from CreditWatch if Amigo demonstrates
that it can maintain stable credit ratios and if its liquidity does
not deteriorate. We would also consider whether Amigo can resume
lending, achieve good earnings under its revised strategy, and
whether its business model and market position will remain
robust."


BYRON: To Launch Sale Process, Explores Other Options
-----------------------------------------------------
Spirit FM, citing Sky News, reports that Byron, which employs 1,200
people at 51 outlets across Britain, has asked KPMG to begin
contacting potential buyers.

The timing of the sale -- with its restaurants closed and the
prospects for their reopening uncertain due to the coronavirus
lockdown -- underlines the pessimism which has engulfed a once
thriving part of the economy, Spirit FM notes.

It was unclear whether a solvent sale would be possible, Spirit FM
states.

According to Spirit FM, sources close to the process said that
other options would be explored alongside a sale, including a
refinancing under the existing majority shareholder, Three Hills
Capital Partners.

It is also continuing to examine whether it can access any of the
Treasury's emergency lending programs, having already used the
Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme to subsidize the wages of most of
its staff, Spirit FM relays.

KPMG was appointed in March to begin a review of Byron's options,
Spirit FM recounts.

Its expansion was ill-fated, with dozens of sites saddled with
excessive rents and insufficient revenues, forcing the chain into a
company voluntary arrangement just over two years ago, Spirit FM
discloses.

The restructuring saw it wipe out its debts, close 20 sites and
slash rents across much of its ongoing estate, Spirit FM states.

Last year, the company recorded turnover of GBP70.9 million, with a
gross profit of GBP31.6 million, Spirit FM recounts.

A source, as cited by Spirit FM, said that the COVID-19 outbreak
had come at "a frustrating time for Byron", which is said to have
been making progress in its turnaround plan under chief executive
Simon Wilkinson.

One insider said KPMG would contact a range of restaurant operators
and financial investors as part of the process, Spirit FM notes.


ELLI INVESTMENT: Fitch Corrects April 24 Ratings Release
--------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings replaced a ratings release published on April 24,
2020 to correct the name of the obligor for the bonds.

Fitch Ratings has withdrawn UK care home operator Elli Investments
Ltd's ratings, including the Long-Term Issuer Default Rating of
'D'.

Subsequent to the appointment of independent administrators in
April 2019, there has been a reduction in available information. As
such, Fitch is withdrawing the ratings as Elli has stopped
participating in the rating process. Therefore, Fitch no longer has
sufficient information to maintain the ratings. Accordingly, Fitch
will no longer provide ratings or analytical coverage for Elli.

The ratings were withdrawn due to insufficient information
provided, due to Elli ceasing to participate in the rating
process.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

In Default: Fitch had downgraded Elli to 'D' following its
announcement on April 30, 2019 that independent administrators for
the issuers of Elli's bonds had been appointed and subsequently
initiated an independent sales process, which was terminated in
October 2019.

Unresolved Cost Pressures despite Scale: Elli has been facing
continuing constraints on profitability and cash flow generation
for the past few years. This is due to pressures on the group's
cost base associated with an increase in the national living wage,
and a shortage of nurses in the UK, leading to increasing reliance
on agency workers. Four Seasons Health Care is a UK care home
operator. It is one of the largest independent providers of elderly
care services in the UK.

Uncertainty around Social Care Reforms: Despite positive underlying
secular trends such as increasing demand for care and greater
differentiation of the care model, long-term visibility over social
care in the UK remains uncertain due to a chronic funding gap,
which so far has not been politically addressed and hence makes the
formulation of long-term strategies and business plans, as well as
asset valuations in the sector difficult.

Recovery Value: Fitch's recovery assumptions for the rated debt
were underpinned by valuations of Elli's properties given the
group's asset-heavy strategy, despite limitations on repurposing
these properties for alternative use in light of regulatory
oversight. However, there is no current information with regard to
any changes in the asset base or consolidation perimeter, in light
of discussions among stakeholders, to ascertain any impact on
recoveries for creditors in the event of financial restructuring.
Therefore, Fitch has withdrawn the ratings on the debt instruments
at their current levels.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

The highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score
of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a
minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their
nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the
entity(ies).

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

International scale credit ratings of Non-Financial Corporate
issuers have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the
99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive
direction) of three notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a
worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th
percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction)
of four notches over three years. The complete span of best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges
from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are
based on historical performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

GRAINGER PLC: S&P Affirms 'BB+' LT ICR Amid COVID-19 Pandemic
-------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BB+' long-term issuer credit
rating on Grainger PLC and its 'BBB-' issue rating on its senior
secured bond.

S&P said, "Grainger's rental income growth should slow down in the
short term, but we foresee little disruption to its earnings.  The
social-distancing and lockdown measures that the U.K. government
has imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic will slow
Grainger's rental income growth in the short term. We expect to see
a moderate decrease in rental income growth from Grainger's private
rental portfolio in the second half of the financial year ending
Sept. 30, 2020, compared with 3.4% like-for-like rental income
growth in the first half of the financial year. In addition, the
potential delay in executing planned capital expenditure (capex) in
Grainger's development pipeline may weigh on its rental income
generation. However, we do not think that the COVID-19 pandemic
will have a significant effect on Grainger as a residential
property landlord at this stage, thanks to the high tenant
diversity in its residential properties and sustained demand for
affordable private rental homes in the U.K. We still forecast
like-for-like rental income growth of 2.0%-2.5% for the remainder
of 2020.

"We are likely to see some disruption in the U.K. housing market
and consequently Grainger's property sales.  We expect housing
transactions in the U.K. to slow down due to the lockdown measures
in force. In addition, we anticipate that the COVID-19 pandemic
will have a materially negative impact on U.K. economic activity,
and forecast that GDP growth will fall by 6.5% in 2020. This, along
with more stringent mortgage conditions or a potential decline in
demand from institutional investors, may undermine people's ability
to buy properties in the coming 12-24 months. We therefore envisage
delays to Grainger's sales this year, along with uncertainties
around the evolution of house prices, demand, and the duration of
the slowdown in property sales. We believe this could reduce
Grainger's profit from property sales for the current fiscal year.
In our revised base case, we assume a decline of 10%-15% in
Grainger's sales revenues in 2020 compared with 2019, but a gradual
recovery in 2021. We view Grainger's income stream from property
trading as more volatile and sensitive to market
uncertainties--including the COVID-19 pandemic--than its income
stream from property rentals. Property trading should still
represent about one-half of Grainger's total income in 2020, in
spite of the company's strategy to continuously increase its share
of recurrent rental income. However, this is partially offset, in
our view, by Grainger's solid track record of generating profit on
sales of regulated tenancy properties throughout economic cycles.
Furthermore, Grainger has no obligation to sell its regulated
tenancy properties at a specific point in time and could re-let
them instead.

Grainger's EBITDA interest coverage ratio will face temporary
pressure at the current rating in 2020, due to a decline in EBITDA,
although debt to debt plus equity should remain strong after an
equity increase in Feb. 2020.   In our revised base case, we
forecast that the company's EBITDA interest coverage will fall
slightly below 3.0x in 2020 (3.1x in 2019), compared with our
previous expectation of above 3.0x. We believe that coverage will
gradually recover back above 3.0x in 2021, underpinned by
increasing EBITDA from the private rental portfolio. Furthermore,
Grainger issued GBP185 million of equity in Feb. 2020, which
provides it with ample headroom over our 50% threshold for debt to
debt plus equity. This is despite our revisions to our base-case
assumptions, including a valuation decline of up to 5% for 2020. We
also believe that the company will be able to maintain its ratio of
debt to EBITDA well below 13x.

Grainger's funding and liquidity profile will remain robust.  
Grainger has a solid liquidity position, with about GBP198 million
of cash on hand as of March 31, 2020, and undrawn bank lines of
about GBP329 million available, which should be largely sufficient
to cover its committed capex of GBP150 million over the next 12
months. The company does not face any significant debt repayments,
with the next facility maturity in March 2022. In addition, S&P
understands that the company has sufficient headroom under its
financial covenants.

S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that Grainger
should withstand the potential short-term revenue contraction in
2020, and that all its credit metrics will be commensurate with the
current rating thereafter. Overall, we estimate that Grainger's
interest coverage ratio will return back above 3x from 2021. In
addition, we forecast that the company will maintain debt to debt
plus equity well below 50%, as well as debt to EBITDA near 11x-12x
in the next 12-24 months.

"We could lower our rating if Grainger's operating performance
comes under pressure from falling property sales, due to a longer
decline than we anticipated in either average selling prices or
demand for its properties, leading its credit metrics to
deteriorate." In particular, S&P would downgrade the company if
its:

-- EBITDA interest coverage ratio falls below 3x on a sustainable
basis;

-- Debt to EBITDA rises to 13x or above;

-- Debt to debt plus equity reaches above 50% on a sustainable
basis; or

-- Liquidity cushion deteriorates significantly, which is not
S&P's base case.

S&P could raise the rating if Grainger materially decreases the
exposure of its cash flows to sales of regulated tenancy
properties, and adopts the key characteristics of a real estate
investment trust such that the majority of its absolute earnings
base comes from its rental activities.

S&P could also raise the rating on Grainger if its:

-- Interest coverage ratio rises above 3.8x;
-- Debt to debt plus equity falls sustainably below 35%; and
-- Debt to EBITDA is well below 9.5x.


HSS HIRE: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, On Review for Downgrade
---------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the corporate family
rating of HSS Hire Group plc to B3 from B2, and the probability of
default rating to B3-PD from B2-PD. The outlook has been changed to
ratings under review from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE / FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR
DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, and asset price declines are
creating a severe and extensive credit shock across many sectors,
regions and markets. The combined credit effects of these
developments are unprecedented. The equipment rental sector has
been one of the sectors affected by the shock given global
restrictions on movement and focus on essential equipment rental.
More specifically, HSS's is at risk of revenue losses in these
unprecedented operating conditions and the company remains
vulnerable to the outbreak for as long as the current situation
persists. Its action reflects the impact on HSS of the breadth and
severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit
quality it has triggered.

Moody's expects leverage to increase temporarily under a base case
scenario which assumes that revenue will decrease by around 15% in
2020 as a result of the coronavirus and resulting recessionary
pressure, recovering to 2019 levels in 2021. Under this scenario
Moody's expects HSS' free cash flow to be weak but positive,
however this assumes a very low level of fleet replacement and
capex which could weaken the company's prospects in the recovery
phase, although positively the company's OneCall rehire business
does not require capex and should benefit during the recovery
phase. If the lockdowns continue and/or recessionary pressure is
more severe than currently envisaged, Moody's expects HSS' business
to be more severely impacted.

Moody's views HSS' liquidity as currently adequate, but cautions
that this could weaken materially if the crisis is pro-longed and
financial covenant headroom may be eroded, requiring relief from
lenders. Moody's also notes the that liquidity may also be
increasingly impacted by working capital outflows, the relatively
high interest burden, and contractual amortization repayments
including a GBP15 million principal repayment due in January 2021.

HSS's rating is also constrained by the geographic concentration of
HSS' operations within the UK where economic uncertainties exist;
and the cyclicality and high capital spending requirements in the
tool and equipment rental industry.

The company's B3 rating is supported by the company's improved
performance prior to the coronavirus outbreak following the
reconfiguration of its network and sale of UK Platforms, which
resulted in a decrease in Moody's adjusted leverage to 3.1x in 2019
from around 4.2x at LTM September 2018. The rating also reflects
the company's leading position in the UK with a wide network
coverage of around 240 trading branches, albeit in a market that
remains highly fragmented ; its relatively better diversification
in terms of end markets compared with its rental peers that focus
on construction, and the large customer base.

The review process will be focused on a review of operating
performance in the context of the coronavirus pandemic, as well as
short and medium term and measures being taken by the company to
alleviate balance sheet, credit metrics and any potential liquidity
stress, including any changes to terms and conditions of the
company's loan documentation.

Whilst unlikely in the near term, upward pressure on the rating
could occur over time if HSS achieves (1) Moody's-adjusted leverage
reducing below 3.5x on a sustained basis, and; (2) consistent,
positive FCF while maintaining at least adequate liquidity.

Negative pressure could arise if Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA fails
to return sustainably towards 5x, and/or if free cash flow turns
negative or if the company does not maintain adequate liquidity.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under
Moody's ESG framework, given the substantial implications for
public health and safety.

HSS is publicly listed on the London Stock Exchange and has a good
corporate governance track record. The company has also
demonstrated adherence to a prudent financial policy over the last
few years, which Moody's regards as commensurate with the company's
rating level.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Equipment and
Transportation Rental Industry published in April 2017.

CORPORATE PROFILE

HSS provides tool and equipment hire and related services in the UK
and Ireland. The company operates mainly in the
business-to-business market through HSS Hire, its flagship brand
for core tool and equipment rental activities. HSS Hire Group plc
is listed on the London Stock Exchange, with a market
capitalisation of c. GBP41 million as of 21 April 2020.

PETROFAC LTD: S&P Lowers ICR to 'BB+' on Poor Backlog Visibility
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowering to 'BB+/B' from 'BBB-/A-3' its long-
and short-term issue credit ratings on engineering and construction
company Petrofac Ltd.

S&P said, "We are lowering our ratings on Petrofac to 'BB+' from
'BBB-' on the back of very difficult market conditions, with oil
prices at historically low levels, and uncertainty regarding the
company's ability to replenish its order book, after a weak order
intake over the past 12 months. We now project EBITDA of about $400
million with very limited upside, if any, in 2021. The company's
ability to secure $4 billion or more in new orders before the
year-end would be an important milestone to mitigate additional
pressure on the rating.

The cancellation of the $1.5 billion Dalma project, combined with
broader weakness across the O&G sector, have constrained Petrofac's
backlog.  After a weak order intake in 2019 of only $3.2 billion,
the company finished the year with a backlog of $7.4 billion; it
expected to recover its position in 2020. Although it achieved
positive momentum earlier in the year, securing two contracts worth
a combined $1.5 billion under ADNOC's Dalma Gas Development
Project, this proved short-lived. On April 16, ADNOC announced the
cancellation of the Dalma contracts, which had only been awarded in
February. Petrofac now has only $0.5 billion of new orders booked
since Jan. 1. S&P said, "We understand that the cancellation is
linked to the weak oil prices, rather than any other reasons. As a
result, we see a risk that other O&G projects could also see delays
or cancellations."

Given a backlog worth $4.5 billion on execution in 2020, Petrofac
would need to secure contracts worth about $3.0 billion to maintain
a backlog of about $6 billion. S&P considers this level key to its
assessment of its business risk profile as fair. In the
year-to-date, the company has secured contracts worth only $0.5
billion.

S&P said, "Petrofac's balance sheet and lack of debt anchor our
rating on it.  The modest financial risk profile is supported by
the company's commitment to run its operations without leverage and
its flexible dividend policy. Ultimately, the financial risk
profile is underpinned by Petrofac's ability to maintain S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted funds from operations (FFO) to debt of 60% or more
while the U.K. Serious Fraud Office (SFO) investigation is ongoing,
or 45%-60% during the low points of the cycle, taking swings in
working capital into account. In our view, the ability to generate
positive free operating cash flow (FOCF), even during weak periods,
will allow the company to defend its financial objectives."

The key elements supporting the current assessment, and maintaining
an adjusted FFO to debt about 60%, include:

-- Its low debt level--on Dec. 31, 2019, Petrofac reported a net
cash position of around $15 million.

-- The cancellation of the recently announced $85 million
dividend.

-- Positive FOCF of $250 million-$300 million in the 18-24 months
to December 2021. During this period, the company expects to see
the material working capital outflow in 2020 being reversed in
2021.

-- The SFO investigation continues to cast a shadow.  The
investigation into Petrofac's activities started in May 2017 and is
still ongoing. In 2019, it expanded into additional regions. No
charges have yet been brought against Petrofac.

S&P said, "Should a fine be imposed, we estimate that the company
could absorb a one-off payment of several hundred million dollars
without affecting its liquidity and rating, all else being equal.
Our main concern remains the potential impact on the company's
ability to tender projects if charges are indeed brought." The
reputational effect could weigh on the rating.

The negative outlook primarily captures the low visibility
regarding the global O&G industry pipeline. S&P said, "We see a
risk that lower awards could trigger a further decline in
Petrofac's backlog and profitability in the coming years. In our
view, this risk could materialize if crude oil continued to trade
at or below our assumption of $30/bbl in the rest of 2020 and below
$50/bbl in 2021."

In addition, a deterioration in Petrofac's liquidity position could
also be a trigger. This will make it harder for the company to deal
with a hefty potential SFO penalty or any cost overruns.

S&P said, "In our base case, we forecast a softer adjusted EBITDA
of about $400 million in 2020. This translates into positive FOCF
(before working capital) of about $100 million-$125 million in
2020, or negative $150 million-$200 million after factoring in
working capital outflows. Looking into 2021, we expect an
improvement, as EBITDA increases and working capital flows are
reversed.

"We consider adjusted FFO to debt of more than 60% commensurate
with the current 'BB+' rating as long as the SFO investigation
continues. Although FFO to debt will be around 30%-35% in 2020,
under our base case, we expect it to go back to above 60% starting
2021."

S&P would lower the rating if a combination of the following
scenarios materializes:

-- Adjusted FFO to debt remaining below 60% after 2020, without a
clear recovery path or after factoring in a single sizable one-off
potential fine from the SFO.

-- A further decline in the company's backlog to $5.0 billion or
below by year end.

-- Impairment in the company's liquidity position that would
prevent it from absorbing a one-off fine from the SFO without the
need to refinance its maturities. A key checkpoint would be the
refinancing of its $1.2 billion revolving credit facility (RCF) in
the coming months.

-- Any negative consequences from the SFO's criminal investigation
(for example, substantial charges against Petrofac or the inability
to compete for new awards).

-- S&P could revise the outlook to stable in the next six to 12
months if it saw a recovery in the O&G industry, and a material
rebound in oil prices.

Other conditions that could support an outlook revision include:

-- Building a track record of securing new awards and restoring
the backlog to $6 billion or more, while maintaining at least the
same historical profitability levels.

-- Successfully refinancing the RCF and rebuilding some more
headroom in the liquidity (particularly while the SFO investigation
has not concluded).


PREZZO: Taps FRP Advisory Amid Coronavirus Crisis
-------------------------------------------------
Katherine Price at The Caterer reports that restaurant group Prezzo
has engaged the services of FRP Advisory to see it through the
coronavirus crisis.

According to The Caterer, a spokesperson for Prezzo said: "We
entered this entirely unexpected closure after a period of strong
trading, which has given us the impetus and momentum to be able to
drive through to reopening.

"Given the continuing uncertainty around the reopening of
hospitality in the UK, appointing advisers is a sensible,
precautionary measure to ensure we have best advice available to us
as we respond to this pandemic and look forward to the important
period of reopening."


THREE CROSS: Cash Flow Crisis Prompts Administration
----------------------------------------------------
Business Sale reports that Dorset-based motorcycle dealership Three
Cross Motorcycles has gone into administration, after the
coronavirus lockdown caused a "catastrophic cash flow crisis" at
the family-owned business.

KRE Corporate Recovery of Reading have been appointed as
administrators and are seeking a buyer for the business, Business
Sale relates.  The company has 21 full-time staff and one part-time
employee, Business Sale discloses.

According to Business Sale, in a statement, the Davies family, who
own and run the business, said: "After two hard years, we had
restructured and had a positive budget to return us to
profitability in 2020."

"At the end of February we were on target and had a good order bank
of retail and wholesale bikes for March/April delivery.  However,
our expectations of a spring time recovery have been swept away by
the Covid-19 virus and subsequent government lockdown, which caused
a catastrophic cash-flow crisis, from which there was no way
back."

Administrators from KRE say that the business turned over GBP6.9
million in 2019, Business Sale relays.  According to its most
recent accounts, filed to the year ending December 31 2018, the
company held fixed assets of GBP335,924 and current assets of
GBP1.6 million, down from GBP2.4 million in 2017, Business Sale
notes.


[*] S&P Puts 18 Class Ratings from 14 European CLOs on Watch Neg.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings placed its ratings on 18 classes from 14
reinvesting European broadly syndicated collateralized loan
obligations (BSL CLOs) on CreditWatch with negative implications.

During the past few weeks, a growing number of companies with loans
held in European CLOs have experienced negative rating actions,
largely due to coronavirus-related concerns and the current
economic dislocation. The negative CreditWatch placements primarily
affect our rated BSL CLOs that are in their reinvesting period.

S&P said, "Our actions reflect a combination of multiple factors
that affected these transactions, with the primary one being the
increased exposure to 'CCC' category loans. Other factors include
pressure on the overcollateralization ratios, a decline in
portfolio credit quality, credit enhancement, and indicative
preliminary cash flow results. We also considered qualitative
factors to reflect our forward-looking view of the CLO portfolios.
In our analysis, based on the latest trustee report data available
as of April 20, 2020, some of the CLO tranches showed that the
break-even default rate (BDR) was higher than the scenario default
rates (SDRs). Nevertheless, the cushion was minimal, especially
when factoring the increase in 'CCC' assets.

"For CLO tranches rated 'B-' and below, in addition to the above
factors, we applied our 'CCC' criteria. Our rating analysis makes
additional considerations before assigning ratings in the 'CCC'
category or placing a 'B-' rated note on CreditWatch.

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak. Some
government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak about
midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic
and credit implications. S&P believes the measures adopted to
contain COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession. As
the situation evolves, S&P will update its assumptions and
estimates accordingly.

S&P said, "We will continue to review the ratings on our remaining
transactions in light of these macroeconomic events. We will take
further rating actions, including CreditWatch placements, as we
deem appropriate.

"We typically resolve CreditWatch placements within 90 days after
we complete a cash flow analysis and committee review for each of
the affected transactions. As we work to resolve these CreditWatch
placements, we will attempt to contact the managers of these
transactions to ensure we have the most current data, including any
credit risk sales or other trades that may have occurred but have
yet to be reflected in trustee reports, and understand the
strategies for their portfolios moving forward."

A list of Affected Ratings can be viewed at:

               https://bit.ly/3cSe1cY


                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills,
Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA.
Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.

Copyright 2020.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2754.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
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