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       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                          E U R O P E

          Wednesday, April 15, 2020, Vol. 21, No. 76

                           Headlines



D E N M A R K

NORICAN GLOBAL: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, Outlook Negative


F R A N C E

AIR FRANCE-KLM: Egan-Jones Lowers Sr. Unsec. Debt Ratings to B-
LAGARDERE SCA: Egan-Jones Lowers Sr. Unsec. Debt Ratings to BB-


I R E L A N D

[*] IRELAND: Urged to Make Temporary Changes to Insolvency Laws


I T A L Y

IMMOBILIARE GRANE: Moody's Places Ba1 CFR on Review for Downgrade
PIAGGIO: Moody's Affirms Ba3 CFR, Alters Outlook to Negative


K A Z A K H S T A N

[*] Fitch Alters Outlook on 4 Kazakh Banks to Negative


L U X E M B O U R G

A.B. ASSET: Moody's Cuts $172.8MM Series 1 Notes to Ba1


N E T H E R L A N D S

ARUBA: Fitch Cuts LT IDRs to BB, Outlook Negative
PRINCESS JULIANA: Moody's Affirms Ba3 Rating, Alters Outlook to Neg


S P A I N

INSTITUT CATALA: Fitch Affirms 'BB' IDR, Alters Outlook to Neg.
PROMOTORA DE INFORMACIONES: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, Outlook Neg.


U N I T E D   K I N G D O M

BEALES GOURMET: Coronavirus Outbreak Prompts Administration
CARLUCCIO'S: Employees Can Access Gov't Job Retention Scheme
CONNECT BIDCO: Moody's Affirms B1 CFR, Alters Outlook to Negative
INMARSAT GROUP: Moody's Withdraws Ba2 CFR on Debt Repayment
OASIS AND WAREHOUSE: On Brink of Administration, Sale Unlikely

PINNACLE BIDCO: Fitch Cuts LT IDR to B-, Outlook Negative
PROSPECT BUSINESS: Bought Out of Administration by Inc & Co
THAME & LONDON: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa1, Outlook Negative

                           - - - - -


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D E N M A R K
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NORICAN GLOBAL: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, Outlook Negative
--------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to B3 from B2 the
corporate family rating and to B3-PD from B2-PD the probability of
default rating of Norican Global A/S, a Denmark domiciled
manufacturer of machines and aftermarket products for the global
metallic parts formation and preparation industries. Concurrently,
Moody's downgraded to B3 from B2 the instrument rating on the
EUR340 million guaranteed senior secured notes due 2023, issued by
Norican A/S, a subsidiary of Norican. The outlook on all ratings
remains negative.

"The decision to downgrade Norican was prompted by the rapid
spreading of the coronavirus, which Moody's expects to have a
material negative effect on Norican's results and credit metrics at
least during 2020, while the final implications are difficult to
assess at this time" said Goetz Grossmann, Moody's lead analyst for
Norican.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The manufacturing
sector has been one of the sectors moderately to strongly affected
by the shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and
sentiment. More specifically, the weaknesses in Norican's credit
profile, including its exposure to cyclical end-markets, especially
the automotive sector, have left it vulnerable to shifts in market
sentiment in these unprecedented operating conditions and Norican
remains vulnerable to the outbreak continuing to spread.

The downgrade was further driven by Moody's recently downward
revised outlook for the global automotive manufacturing sector,
which should see global light vehicle sales falling by 14% this
year. Given Norican's around 60% revenue exposure to the automotive
industry, Moody's expects the group's topline and earnings to
significantly shrink this year, especially in the new equipment
segment, while a recovery in 2021 will depend on when the virus
will be contained and consumer sentiment improve.

The B3 rating is currently weakly positioned, as indicated by the
negative outlook, which mainly reflects Norican's already high
leverage, as shown by a Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA ratio of 7x at
the end of 2019 (2018: 6.0x). Considering the projected slump in
earnings over the next few quarters, Moody's expects the group's
leverage to significantly increase further to levels well above the
required 7x maximum ratio for a B3 rating. The profit deterioration
will also weaken Norican's cash flow generation this year with some
risk of free cash flow turning negative (EUR18 million positive in
2019). However, Moody's would expect strict working capital
management and disciplined capex spending to help prevent a more
material cash consumption or eroding liquidity position.

The final impact of the coronavirus pandemic and the length and
pace of business disruptions it will cause are impossible to
predict at this time. This leaves significant forecast uncertainty,
while Moody's currently expects that the spreading will be
controlled by the second half of 2020. Any longer demand weakness
or disruption in Norican's production capabilities, however, after
plants in Italy, India and France had to be shut already recently,
could lead to further downward pressure on its ratings over the
coming months.

LIQUIDITY

Moody's regards Norican's liquidity as adequate. At the end of
2019, the group's cash position amounted to EUR112 million and
there were EUR55 million available for cash drawings under its
EUR75 million committed revolving credit facility (maturing October
2022). These cash sources, together with forecast funds from
operations of up to EUR10 million and modest working capital
releases are more than sufficient to cover capital expenditures of
around EUR10 million (Moody's-adjusted) and Moody's 3% of sales
working cash assumption. The group has no material debt maturities
before its EUR340 million bond is due in May 2023.

Moody's expects Norican to remain in compliance with its
maintenance covenants at this stage, although the capacity could
swiftly diminish in a scenario of a much sharper earnings decline
than currently anticipated.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Moody's considers the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under
its ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public
health and safety. Its action reflects the impact on Norican of the
breadth and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in
credit quality it has triggered.

OUTLOOK

The negative outlook indicates further downgrade pressure resulting
from a potential faster deterioration in Norican's operating
performance and credit metrics than currently anticipated or
mounting liquidity concerns, including through the inability to
maintain compliance with financial covenants over the next few
months.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Negative rating pressure would build, if Norican's (1) operating
performance were to weaken faster than expected in the coming
months or quarters, reflecting a more severe deterioration in
business conditions, (2) Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA could
not be reduced towards 7x over the next 18 months, (3) FCF turned
materially negative, (4) liquidity started to weaken.

Upward pressure on the rating would build, if Norican's (1)
Moody's-adjusted EBITA margin remained above 8%, (2)
Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA declined sustainably below 5.5x,
(3) positive free cash flow generation could be sustained.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Manufacturing
Methodology published in March 2020.

COMPANY PROFILE

Norican Global A/S is a holding company for a variety of branded
industrial technology businesses that offer products and services
to the global ferrous metals and light metals industries. The group
consists of the following brands: (1) DISA, a provider of equipment
and aftermarket services for the green sand molding sector
(predominantly gray iron casting); (2) Wheelabrator, a complete
provider of cleaning, strengthening and polishing equipment, and
aftermarket services mainly for the ferrous metals sector; (3)
ItalPresse, a provider of gravity, and low- and high-pressure
die-casting solutions; (4) Gauss, a provider of automated
die-casting solutions; and (5) StrikoWestofen, a provider of
aluminum furnace technologies. Norican is owned by a fund
affiliated to Altor Equity Partners, a Nordic-focused private
equity sponsor. In 2019, Norican generated revenue of EUR504
million and reported EBITDA of EUR63 million (12.4% margin).



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F R A N C E
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AIR FRANCE-KLM: Egan-Jones Lowers Sr. Unsec. Debt Ratings to B-
---------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company, on April 1, 2020, downgraded the
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by Air France-KLM to B- from B.

Air France–KLM S.A., also known as Air France–KLM Group, is a
Franco-Dutch airline holding company incorporated under French law
with its headquarters at Charles de Gaulle Airport in
Tremblay-en-France, near Paris. The group has offices in Montreuil,
Seine-Saint-Denis, Paris, and in Amstelveen, Netherlands.


LAGARDERE SCA: Egan-Jones Lowers Sr. Unsec. Debt Ratings to BB-
---------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company, on April 3, 2020, downgraded the
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by Lagardere SCA to BB- from BB+. EJR also downgraded
the rating on commercial paper issued by the Company to B from A2.

Lagardere is a multinational media conglomerate headquartered in
the 16th arrondissement of Paris. The group was created in 1992 as
Matra, Hachette & Lagardère and once covered a broad range of
industries. It is now largely focused on the media sector, in which
it is one of the world's leading companies.




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I R E L A N D
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[*] IRELAND: Urged to Make Temporary Changes to Insolvency Laws
---------------------------------------------------------------
Eoin Burke-Kennedy at The Irish Times reports that the Irish
government has been urged to make temporary changes to the
insolvency laws to prevent businesses unable to meet debts due to
the coronavirus from going into bankruptcy.

Dublin-based legal firm Philip Lee said certain aspects of the
regulations here needed to be "dialled down" to enable companies
trade through the current crisis, The Irish Times relates.

In particular, it called for the penalties for trading while
insolvent to be temporarily lifted, The Irish Times notes.
According to The Irish Times, it said this would allow directors of
companies to pay staff and suppliers even if there are fears the
company could become insolvent.

Currently, directors have personal liability for debts incurred
and/or may face disqualification if they are knowingly party to
carrying on a business that is insolvent, The Irish Times
discloses.

Philip Lee's John Given, as cited by The Irish Times, said
directors making bona fides decisions to continue trading "in the
expectation that the current crisis can be weathered" should not
face such penalties.




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I T A L Y
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IMMOBILIARE GRANE: Moody's Places Ba1 CFR on Review for Downgrade
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has placed on review for downgrade the
Ba1 corporate family rating of the Bologna-based real-estate
company Immobiliare Grande Distribuzione SiiQ S.p.A. as well as the
Ba1 senior unsecured rating of its EUR 300 million notes maturing
2021 (out of which around EUR 71 million outstanding). The outlook
has been changed to rating under review from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE / FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR
DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The retail real
estate segment has been one of the sectors more affected by the
shock given the sensitivity to the retail environment and financial
health of retailers. Italy's retail closures to contain coronavirus
are credit negative for IGD, as they will materially reduce the
foot traffic and retail sales at its shopping centres. IGD's
food-anchored portfolio will partially mitigate the disruptive
effect given that its hyper- and supermarkets remain open and are
reporting growing sales. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak
as a social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial
implications for public health and safety.

The operating environment has deteriorated strongly with the
business interruption caused by the coronavirus and will likely be
sustainably weaker even after the immediate disruption has ceased.
Furthermore, many retailers will face acute liquidity and solvency
challenges because of store closures and loss of income. While the
Italian government has announced measures to support businesses
challenged by the coronavirus crisis, Moody's expects that IGD will
need to provide concessions through extended payment terms and rent
reductions to support its occupancy rate, while vacancy through
insolvencies or non-renewals of leases will be more challenging to
fill. While the business interruptions may only last until May
2020, Moody's expects an increasing number of tenant insolvencies
and subdued leasing activity that will result in declining rental
income throughout 2020 and 2021.

IGD's net rental income generation is likely to be additionally
challenged by the sluggish prospects for the Italian economy,
worsened by the impact of the coronavirus outbreak in the country.
The above together with the reduced investors' appetite for retail
real estate is likely to reflect negatively on properties
valuation. This will put a greater strain on IGD's credit metrics
and the ultimate effect on them will depend of the length and
severity of the outbreak.

Despite the expected cash flow decline over the next few quarters
amid the likely reduction in passing rent caused by the retail
closures at its properties, Moody's estimates that the company will
generate funds broadly covering maintenance capital spending and
interest payments over the next six to 12 months. Furthermore,
IGD's early refinancing of its 2021 bond bolstered its liquidity
with EUR128 million cash on hand as of year-end 2019 (out of which
EUR71 million is earmarked for repaying the residual outstanding
amount of its 2021 bond). The company has an additional EUR60
million available under revolving credit facilities with no MAC
clauses and which mature between Q4 2020 and Q1 2021. The company
plans to extend these for up to three years to 2024, by the end of
April 2020.

Moody's understands the company will take additional measures to
preserve cash flows such as reducing project capital spending that
is not committed throughout 2020 and 2021.

During the rating review process, Moody's will focus on (i) the
extent of business interruptions on IGD's operations, which it
currently expects to last through May 2020, (ii) a review of the
expected impact on the retail industry in general, considering
governmental and policy support, and retailers in IGD's centres,
also compared to peers, (iii) the company's actions to protect its
balance sheet against a backdrop of falling rents and property
values as well as (iv) the success of the company in terming out
its liquidity profile.

IGD's Ba1 corporate family rating is supported by, under more
normal operating conditions, a resilient income generation backed
by a food-anchored portfolio of convenience shopping centres, a
solid coverage of fixed charges following its operational
efficiency and the recent refinancing measures, which have also
bolstered the company's liquidity. At the same time the rating is
mainly constrained by the strain on retail properties' valuation
because of structural challenges depressing investment sentiment,
the concentration of its operations in Italy, a high tenant
concentration and a reduced access to equity because of the large
discount to net asset value at which the company's shares are
currently trading.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Upward rating pressure is unlikely at this point given the review
for downgrade.

Negative rating pressure could develop if the business disruptions
last longer than during March to May, or Moody's expects a high
level of retailer distress to translate into sustained weakened
credit quality and occupancy. Other factors that could lead to a
downgrade include:

  - Weakening operating performance, reflected by declining
footfall, tenant sales per sqm and tenant affordability ratio,
coupled with a lower occupancy ratio

  - Moody's-adjusted leverage reaching levels above 50% or
Moody's-adjusted net debt to EBITDA reaching levels above 12x

  - Fixed-charge coverage falling below 2.0x

  - A negative rating action on Italy's sovereign rating

  - The company fails to maintain good liquidity or refinance debt
maturities well in advance

  - The credit quality of its main tenant deteriorates to an extent
that affects IGD's key metrics through declining rents or other
channels

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was REITs and Other
Commercial Real Estate Firms published in September 2018.

COMPANY PROFILE

Immobiliare Grande Distribuzione SiiQ S.p.A. is a retail property
company based in Bologna, Italy. It owns and operates medium to
large sized convenience shopping centres valued at EUR2.4 billion
per year-end 2019 and generating net rental income of ca.
EUR137million. The company also has a small presence in Romania,
where it owns 14 shopping centres, representing 6% of portfolio
value and rental income.

PIAGGIO: Moody's Affirms Ba3 CFR, Alters Outlook to Negative
------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Piaggio & C.S.p.A.'s Ba3
corporate family rating and Ba3-PD probability of default rating.
Concurrently, Moody's has also affirmed the Ba3 senior unsecured
rating on Piaggio's EUR250 million senior unsecured notes due 2025.
The outlook has been changed to negative from stable.

"The outlook change to negative reflects the supply and demand
shocks that Piaggio is facing owing to the coronavirus outbreak.
Piaggio largely relies on production facilities in both Italy and
India, and its revenues are exposed to discretionary spending that
is likely to contract in case of prolonged macroeconomic
deterioration," says Paolo Leschiutta a Moody's Senior Vice
President and lead analyst for Piaggio.

"The decision to affirm the ratings takes into account the strong
performance of the group in 2019, which Moody's understands
continued in early 2020 up to mid-March, and a degree of resilience
demonstrated by the group in previous economic crises. At this
stage, however, Moody's cannot exclude that prolonged lockdowns
across Europe and India and a severe macroeconomic downturn might
affect the company's credit metrics in 2020 and 2021 to a level not
commensurate with its existing Ba3 rating, while the company's
liquidity remains only adequate," added Mr Leschiutta.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The spreading of coronavirus across Europe and the related health
and safety social considerations are likely to result in severe
contraction in consumer spending on discretionary items. This will
add to the current production disruption for those companies, like
Piaggio, which production plants are temporarily closed due
lockdown measures. Piaggio's production facilities in Italy and
India, which are currently shut down, represent the bulk of its
production capacity, adding some short-term pressure on its ability
to produce and deliver its products.

Although Moody's expects Piaggio's production disruption to be
contained and to have only minor impacts on its operating result
this year, uncertainty remains high and Moody's sees the company's
exposure to potential contraction in demand as severe, particularly
during the seasonally important second quarter of this year, in
light of the company's reliance on consumer spending on
discretionary items. Visibility is low as to assessing the full
impact of potential volume decline over the next 12 to 18 months,
the company's ability to withstand such volatility and to preserve
its cash flow generation, and the potential for recovery in the
second half of 2020 and in 2021. The longer the current situation
lasts, the higher the impact on Piaggio's credit metrics and
liquidity.

In 2020, Moody's expects a substantial reduction in the company's
profits and a commensurate increase in leverage, measured as
Moody's adjusted gross debt to EBITDA, to around 5.0x, compared
with 4.0x reported in 2019 and higher than 4.5x, which is the
threshold for downward pressure on the Ba3 rating. However, Moody's
also expects a recovery in 2021 towards 4.5x. Moody's derives some
comfort from the company's increased diversification in recent
years across Asian markets, including Vietnam and Indonesia, which
so far are less affected by the coronavirus outbreak, and might
show faster recovery following a downturn. In addition, the company
demonstrated a degree of resilience in previous crises, both after
2008 and 2012, albeit recovery in profitability following a crisis
might take some time.

LIQUIDITY

Piaggio's liquidity is only adequate at this stage, owing to the
company's reliance on some short-term uncommitted credit lines and
significant use of reverse factoring. The company's liquidity is
nonetheless supported by approximately EUR191 million of cash on
balance sheet as of December 2019 and approximately EUR132 million
of availability under the company's revolving credit facility due
in 2023. Moody's notes that working capital absorption during the
first quarter is typically high, of approximately EUR50 million to
EUR60 million, which might have resulted in a degree of
deterioration in the company's liquidity availability compared to
December 2019. Moody's expects the company to have negative free
cash flow this year, for approximately EUR30 million - EUR40
million, including dividend payment according to Moody's
definition, however the rating agency also expects covenant
headroom to remain adequate based on the current expectations in
terms of financial leverage evolution.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE (ESG) CONSIDERATIONS

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The consumer
durables sector is one of the sectors affected by the shock given
its sensitivity to discretionary spending and consumer sentiment.
More specifically, the weaknesses in Piaggio's credit profile,
including its exposure to multiple affected countries, have left it
vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in these unprecedented
operating conditions and the company remains vulnerable to the
outbreak continuing to spread. Moody's regards the coronavirus
outbreak as a social risk under its ESG framework, given the
substantial implications for public health and safety. Its action
reflects the impact on Piaggio of the breadth and severity of the
shock, and the broad deterioration in credit quality it has
triggered.

In terms of governance, Piaggio is controlled by its majority
shareholder, IMMSI S.p.A., which is ultimately controlled by the
Colaninno family, with a stake of around 50.3%, while free float
represents around 44% of shares. Piaggio has a balanced financial
policy, with a track record of modest dividend payment and
reduction in financial debt in recent years, after a peak of gross
debt in 2016 following soft operating performance at the time of a
relatively large expansion program.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

Piaggio's EUR250 million senior unsecured notes due in 2025 were
issued by Piaggio & C. S.p.A., which is the parent company of the
group but also the main operating company, and are not guaranteed
by its subsidiaries. The notes rank pari passu in priority of
payment with all of Piaggio's other senior debt, namely the main
bank facilities (including the main revolving credit lines). The
company has a small amount of local debt in Vietnam, which,
however, is not sizeable enough to cause subordination of the rest
of the capital structure. Hence, the senior unsecured notes are
rated Ba3, in line with the group's CFR.

RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects the uncertainties around Piaggio's
ability to limit the credit metrics deterioration in 2020 and the
degree of recovery in both the company's operating performance and
the general economic environment in 2021. The negative outlook also
reflects that Piaggio's liquidity is just adequate, leaving limited
headroom for deviation if operating performance weakens beyond
current expectations.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Upward pressure on the rating is limited in light of the negative
outlook.

For a rating upgrade, Piaggio has to demonstrate (1) improvements
in its business profile demonstrated by better geographic
diversification and lower performance volatility; (2) further
improvement in Piaggio's profitability, with the company improving
its Moody's adjusted EBIT margin towards the high-single-digit
level in percentage terms; (3) a financial leverage, measured as
Moody's adjusted (gross) debt to EBITDA ratio, trending towards
3.5x for a prolonged period of time; and (4) a ratio of retained
cash flow to net debt above 10% (including Moody's adjustments).

Conversely, Piaggio's rating could be lowered in case of (1) a
deterioration in Piaggio's operating performance beyond current
expectations demonstrated among other things by a weaker Moody's
adjusted EBIT margin falling towards the mid-single digit level in
percentage terms; (2) failure to maintain leverage below 4.5x on a
sustained basis (including Moody's adjustments); or (3) negative
free cash flow generation beyond 2020.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: Piaggio & C. S.p.A.

Affirmations:

Probability of Default Rating, Affirmed Ba3-PD

Corporate Family Rating, Affirmed Ba3

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Ba3

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Consumer
Durables Industry published in April 2017.

COMPANY PROFILE

Based in Italy, Piaggio & C. S.p.A. (Piaggio) is a leading global
manufacturer and distributor of light mobility vehicles for both
personal and business purposes. Piaggio is the largest European
manufacturer of two-wheelers and the market leader in the scooter
segment by sales volume. During 2019, the group sold 611,300
vehicles (+1.3% from 2018) and reported total consolidated revenue
of EUR1,521.3 million (+9.5%) and EBITDA of EUR220.2 million
(+14.5%, excluding FX and IFRS 16).



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K A Z A K H S T A N
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[*] Fitch Alters Outlook on 4 Kazakh Banks to Negative
------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlooks on Kazakhstan-based JSC
Halyk Bank and ForteBank to Negative from Positive, and on JSC SB
Alfa Bank and SB JSC Home Credit and Finance Bank to Negative from
Stable. The Outlooks on Halyk's subsidiaries, Halyk Finance and
Halyk Georgia, have also been revised to Negative from Positive.
The Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings of all six entities have been
affirmed at 'BB+' for Halyk and HF, 'BB' for HG, 'BB-' for ABK,
'B+' for HCK and 'B' for Forte.

The rating actions follow the revision of the sector outlook for
Kazakh banks to negative as a result of the coronavirus disruption
and the fall in the oil price. While the ultimate economic and
financial market implications of the coronavirus pandemic are
unclear, Fitch considers the risks to the banks' credit profiles to
be clearly skewed to the downside and this has driven the rating
actions.

JSC SB Alfa Bank

  - LT IDR; BB- Affirmed

  - ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - LC LT IDR; BB- Affirmed

  - Natl LT; BBB+(kaz) Affirmed  

  - Viability; bb- Affirmed

  - Support; 4 Affirmed

SB JSC Home Credit and Finance Bank

  - LT IDR; B+ Affirmed

  - ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - LC LT IDR; B+ Affirmed

  - Natl LT; BBB(kaz) Affirmed

  - Viability; b+ Affirmed

  - Support; 4 Affirmed

  - Senior unsecured; LT B+ Affirmed

  - Senior unsecured; Natl LT BBB(kaz) Affirmed

JSC Halyk Bank Georgia

  - LT IDR; BB Affirmed

  - ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - Support; 3 Affirmed

JSC Halyk Bank

  - LT IDR; BB+ Affirmed

  - ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - LC LT IDR; BB+ Affirmed
  
  - LC ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - Natl LT; AA(kaz) Affirmed

  - Viability; bb+ Affirmed

  - Support; 4 Affirmed

  - Support Floor; B Affirmed

  - senior unsecured; LT BB+ Affirmed

ForteBank JSC

  - LT IDR; B Affirmed

  - ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - LC LT IDR; B Affirmed

  - Natl LT; BB+(kaz) Affirmed

  - Viability; b Affirmed

  - Support; 5 Affirmed

  - Support Floor; B- Affirmed

  - senior unsecured; LT B Affirmed

  - senior unsecured; Natl LT BB+(kaz) Affirmed

JSC Halyk Finance

  - LT IDR; BB+ Affirmed

  - ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - LC LT IDR; BB+ Affirmed

  - LC ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - Support; 3 Affirmed

KEY RATING DRIVERS

IDRS, VRS (HALYK, ABK, HCK, FORTE)

Unless noted, the key rating drivers for all four banks are those
outlined in its Rating Action Commentary published in December 2019
and March 2020.

The IDRs of Halyk, ABK and Forte are driven by their intrinsic
strength, as measured by their VRs. The IDRs of HCK are driven by
both its VR and institutional support. Fitch has revised the
Outlooks to Negative from Positive on Halyk and Forte, and to
Negative from Stable on ABK and HCK. The Positive Outlook on Halyk
and Forte were driven by its expectations that their asset quality
and capital positions could improve due to a reduction in legacy
problem assets (these are particularly significant for Forte,
equaling 0.9x of its equity at end-2019). However, these assets
could be harder to recover, given the currently significant
pressures on the operating environment stemming from the spread of
COVID-19 and lower oil prices. Fitch also expects loan impairment
in the remainder of the bank's loan book to increase in 2020.

Fitch has revised the outlooks on the operating environment, asset
quality and earnings & profitability scores for all four banks to
negative to capture the emerging pressures from the coronavirus
outbreak, the slump in oil prices, the 18% depreciation of the
Kazakh tenge in March 2020 and a projected slowdown in GDP growth.
According to Fitch's baseline forecast, Kazakhstan's GDP will
contract by 1.5% in real terms this year (a negative 530bp swing
from its December 2019 forecast), before recovering in 2021.

Fitch believes that asset quality (which has historically been the
most important rating driver for Kazakh banks) will materially
weaken over the Outlook horizon (12-18 months). The quality of
retail lending (Halyk: 25% of gross loans at end-2019; ABK: 33%;
Forte: 55%; HCK: 100%) could suffer the most, mainly due to higher
unemployment, forced unpaid leave and lower real disposable
incomes, which could impair borrowers' ability to service both
principal and interest payments. This risk is greatest for HCK due
to its business focus on consumer finance lending. Retail loan
growth (27% for the sector in 2019; 20% in 2018) has been faster
than that of nominal household income in the last few years, which
increases the risk of a marked deterioration in the downturn,
especially for unsecured consumer finance loans.

SME lending (10%-15% of sector gross loans; and a similar
proportion of portfolios at Halyk, ABK and Forte) is also of some
concern, given that the strict quarantine in the largest cities
will put pressure on business revenues, particularly in retail,
entertainment, transport, tourism and services. Some of the largest
corporate loans could also become impaired, with risks highest in
project finance exposures to the oil and gas sector (given lower
oil prices), infrastructure and real estate. Risks are particularly
high for foreign currency loans (23% of sector gross loans at
end-2019; 28% at Halyk, 17% at Forte; 10% at ABK and zero at HCK),
given the tenge depreciation.

The government support will only moderately mitigate the hit to
economic activity, especially if the current lockdown is extended
for a long period. The measures include two funding programmes,
each for KZT600 billion, for SMEs and manufacturing enterprises,
several tax relaxations and additional social security measures.
Fitch expects the banks (including Halyk, Forte and ABK) will be
involved in channeling the support to the real sector and will
benefit from liquidity injections but may have to compromise their
underwriting standards.

Spikes in loan impairment charges will result in weaker earnings at
all four banks. In 2019, their pre-impairment profit was strong,
particularly at HCK, underpinned by solid interest margins (HCK:
21%; Halyk: 6%; Forte: 5%; ABK: 8%). However, pre-impairment
performance in 2020 could be weakened by lower transactional income
and some margin compression. At the beginning of March, the key
rate was increased from 9.25% to 12% but then, on April 3, it was
reduced to 9.5%. The quality of reported revenues will also
deteriorate, as the government has announced three-month debt
servicing holidays for some bank borrowers, leading to higher
non-cash interest accruals.

Positively, the balance sheet structures of Halyk, ABK and Forte
will support their overall asset quality and performance. At
end-2019, the shares of net loans in total assets were only
moderate (41% for Halyk, 38% for Forte and 51% for Alfa, but a
higher 76% for HCK), while non-loan exposures were of mostly
quasi-sovereign credit quality. In addition, most corporate lending
in Kazakhstan is secured with hard collateral, so recognition of
impairment losses and corresponding provisioning should be
gradual.

A further mitigating factor is that the authorities heavily cleaned
up the banking sector in 2017-2019, and banks' capacity to absorb
losses has materially improved over the past three to four years.
Fitch notes limited contagion risks, as there are only a few
weaker/smaller banks in the sector that remain burdened with legacy
asset quality issues, while the sector core (equal to about 85% of
sector assets) enters the crisis with solid pre-impairment
profitability and significant capital and liquidity buffers.

Fitch affirmed all four banks' capitalisation & leverage scores
with stable outlooks. The banks' Fitch Core Capital ratios are high
(end-2019: Halyk 21%; Forte 18%; ABK 16%; HCK: 13%) and Fitch
believes that given the banks' reasonable pre-impairment profit
(2019: 15% of average gross loans for HCK; 10% for Halyk; 9% for
ABK and Forte), and gradual recognition of impairment losses in
corporate lending, pressure on the capital ratios will be
manageable, particularly in light of modest anticipated loan
growth.

In Fitch's view, there is no immediate pressure on banks' funding
and liquidity profiles from the weaker operating environment.
Moderate deposit outflows are possible, particularly if
depreciation pressures on the local currency intensify, but Fitch
expects banks to keep comfortable liquidity positions. At end-2019,
liquid assets covered a high 51% of total liabilities for Halyk,
47% for Forte and 39% for ABK, but a lower 23% for HCK. HCK's
funding structure is a relative rating weakness compared with the
other three banks, given more reliance on wholesale funding and
higher funding costs (10% at HCK compared with 5% at ABK and 4% at
Halyk and Forte).

SUPPORT RATINGS, SUPPORT RATING FLOORS (HALYK, ABK, HCK, FORTE)

The significant gap between the banks' Support Rating Floors (B for
Halyk, and B- for Forte) and Kazakhstan's sovereign rating
(BBB/Stable) are driven by a patchy record of state support, which
has recently involved the default of large local banks by means of
bailing in state-owned senior unsecured creditors.

In 2019, the president stated that the government should not
directly inject equity into private banks, and Fitch does not
expect this position to be reversed as a result of the current
downturn. However, banks will benefit from recently announced
regulatory forbearance (mostly relating to calculations on
provisioning and capital adequacy).

HCK's IDRs and its Support Rating of '4' are underpinned by
potential institutional support from its 100% parent, Russia-based
Home Credit & Finance Bank (HCFB; BB-/Negative). This reflects
majority ownership, common branding, the subsidiary's favourable
performance to date and high reputational risks in case of a
default by the subsidiary. The one-notch difference between HCK and
HCFB reflects the cross-border nature of the parent/subsidiary
relationship and the subsidiary's relatively large size (20% of the
parent's assets at end-3Q19), meaning that capital support could be
considerable relative to the parent's ability to provide it.

In Fitch's view, ABK's parent, Russia-based JSC Alfa Bank, will
have a limited propensity to provide support to ABK. This is due to
(i) ABK's complex ownership structure; (ii) limited synergies and
operational integration with the parent; and (iii) a mixed record
of support provided by the parent to its other CIS subsidiaries.
For these reasons Fitch has affirmed ABK's Support Rating at '4'.

NATIONAL RATINGS (HALYK, ABK, HCK, FORTE)

National Ratings reflect issuers' creditworthiness relative to
other credits in Kazakhstan.

DEBT RATINGS

Senior unsecured debt ratings are aligned with the banks' Long-Term
IDRs and National Long-Term Ratings, reflecting average recovery
prospects in case of default.

HALYK FINANCE AND HALYK GEORGIA

The IDRs of Halyk Finance (BB+) and Halyk Georgia (BB), and the
Support Ratings of '3' for both entities, reflect Fitch's view that
there is a moderate probability of institutional support from
Halyk, in case of need. Accordingly, the revision of the Outlooks
on both entities to Negative from Positive mirrors the action on
Halyk.

Fitch's view on availability of support for Halyk Georgia and Halyk
Finance is based on (i) full ownership and common branding; (ii)
the high degree of managerial and operational integration
(especially for Halyk Finance) between the parent and its
subsidiaries; and (iii) the subsidiaries' small size relative to
the parent limiting the cost of potential support.

Fitch equalises the ratings of Halyk Finance with its parent,
because it is a deeply-integrated core subsidiary, operating on
Halyk's domestic market and providing complementary services to
Halyk's clients. In its view, Halyk Georgia is a strategically
important subsidiary for Halyk. The one-notch difference in the
ratings captures the cross-border nature of the parent/subsidiary
relationship and the higher level of managerial independence in
Halyk Georgia compared with Halyk Finance.

Halyk Georgia's Viability Rating is unaffected by this rating
action.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

The VRs of all four Kazakh banks and the IDRs of Halyk, ABK and
Forte could be downgraded if the economic downturn in Kazakhstan is
more severe than it currently anticipates, and this leads to, or is
expected to lead to, a material asset quality deterioration and
weaker performance at the banks. HCK's IDRs will be downgraded if
both (i) the VR is downgraded; and (ii) HCK's parent is
downgraded.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

The IDRs of all four banks could be affirmed and the Outlooks could
be revised to Stable if COVID-19 related disruptions turn out to be
short-lived, and the banks are able to maintain adequate earnings
and asset quality. The Outlook on HCK's IDR may also be revised to
Stable if the Outlook on its parent is revised to Stable.

Upside potential for the ratings is currently limited, given the
negative outlook for the sector. However, in the longer-term, an
upgrade of the ratings would require a material reduction of legacy
problem assets (Halyk, Forte), a development of a stronger
franchise (ABK) and stronger funding profile (HCK). HCK may also be
upgraded, if its parent bank is upgraded, although this is unlikely
given the Negative Outlook on the parent.

National Ratings are sensitive to a change in creditworthiness
relative to other Kazakh issuers.

Debt ratings are sensitive to changes in banks' IDRs.

Evidence of a higher propensity of the state to support Halyk
and/or Forte may result in moderate upside potential for their SRs
and SRFs.

The IDRs of Halyk Finance and Halyk Georgia will move in tandem
with Halyk's ratings. If there are any delays in provision of
capital support to either of these subsidiaries, then the notching
of the subsidiary ratings from the parent bank may be widened.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Best/Worst Case Rating Scenarios - Financial Institutions:

Ratings of Financial Institutions issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years.
The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS

The IDRs of Halyk Finance and Halyk Georgia are driven by potential
support from their parent, Halyk.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).



===================
L U X E M B O U R G
===================

A.B. ASSET: Moody's Cuts $172.8MM Series 1 Notes to Ba1
-------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the ratings on the
following notes issued by A.B. Asset Finance Company S.A.:

USD172.8M Series 1 Notes due 2021, Downgraded to Ba1; previously on
Dec 6, 2018 Assigned Baa3

USD400.8M Series 2 Notes due 2030, Downgraded to Ba1; previously on
Aug 30, 2019 Assigned Baa3

These transactions represent the repackaging of loans or
sub-participations of loans originated by ABSA Bank Limited. Under
cash flow agreements for both transactions, ABSA Bank Limited
unconditionally and irrevocably agrees to pay to the issuer the
interest and principal amounts due under the notes, as well as all
fees and expenses incurred by the issuer, and the issuer agrees to
pay ABSA Bank Limited any interest and principal received on the
collateral.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Moody's explained that the rating actions taken today are the
result of a rating action on ABSA Bank Limited, which was
downgraded to Ba1 from Baa3 on 31 March 2020. For further
information on the underlying action see the press release titled
"Moody's downgrades the ratings of five South African banks
following downgrade on the South African sovereign. The outlook is
negative".

Under the cash flow agreements for both transactions, payments
received by the issuer from ABSA Bank Limited are used to make
payments due under the notes on a pass-through basis. Given the
pass-through nature of the transactions, the noteholders are fully
exposed to the credit risk of ABSA Bank Limited.

As a result, Moody's has used the long-term foreign currency bank
deposit rating of ABSA Bank Limited as the reference point for the
obligations of ABSA Bank Limited under the cash flow agreements.

In addition, for both transactions, noteholders benefit from a
guarantee by ABSA Bank Limited to the issuer of any amount due in
respect of the notes. No benefit has been given to the guarantee
since it is provided by the same entity as the one under the cash
flow agreements.

Methodology Underlying the Rating Action:

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's
Approach to Rating Repackaged Securities" published in March 2019.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:

These ratings are essentially a pass-through of the rating of ABSA
Bank Limited. Noteholders are exposed to the credit risk of ABSA
Bank Limited and therefore the rating moves in lock-step.

Moody's notes that this transaction is subject to a high level of
macroeconomic uncertainty, which could negatively impact the
ratings of the notes, as evidenced by 1) uncertainties of credit
conditions in the general economy and 2) more specifically, any
uncertainty associated with the underlying credits in the
transaction could have a direct impact on the repackaged
transaction.



=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================

ARUBA: Fitch Cuts LT IDRs to BB, Outlook Negative
-------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Aruba's Long-Term Foreign and Local
Currency Issuer Default Ratings by two notches to 'BB' from 'BBB-'
with a Negative Outlook.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The downgrade reflects the sharp economic downturn expected in
Aruba from the loss of tourism receipts in 2020-2021 and the severe
deterioration in fiscal and external accounts as a result. Fitch
projects that Aruba's consolidated government debt/GDP will rise to
92.6% in 2020 from 62.8% in 2019. Fitch expects financial support
in some form from the Kingdom of the Netherlands, of which Aruba is
a member with 'status aparte', to assist the Government of Aruba's
extraordinary financial requirements, in turn, facilitating the
island economy's ability to absorb a very large shock. The Negative
Outlook reflects the considerable downside risks to its global
economic forecasts and Aruba's tourism industry from the global
coronavirus pandemic as well as the ability of the authorities' to
decisively cut the debt burden as the economy recovers starting in
2021.

Aruban authorities are expecting an 80% fall in tourism receipts
following global lockdown measures and the closure of the national
airport to foreign visitors in March. Tourism is Aruba's economic
mainstay, and Fitch estimates tourism receipts at 63% of GDP and
76% of current external receipts (CXR) in 2019, making it among the
most tourism-dependent rated sovereigns. Fitch expects steep
economic contraction in Aruba's main markets - U.S. (-3.3% real GDP
change), Canada (-3.6%), and Eurozone countries (-4.2%) - in 2020
and a recovery in 2021, although there is downside risk.

Fitch forecasts the tourism freeze and Aruba's quarantine and
lockdown measures to cause a 10% yoy contraction of Aruba's real
GDP, dramatically increase unemployment and curtail small business
activity, and deteriorate the current account to a 15% of GDP
deficit in 2020 from a small surplus in 2019.

Supporting external financing flows, the government plans to
refinance most of its 2020 budget needs (near USD750 million) and
its 2020 maturities (roughly USD168 million of the USD202 million
total) externally, likely before June when the second of three debt
service peaks during 2020 occurs. The central bank has tightened
capital controls, mainly restrictions of new FX licenses and
dividend transfers, while explicitly stating its prioritization of
debt service flows to support the Aruban florin's 's peg to the
U.S. dollar. Aruba's international reserves were USD997 million at
December 2019, sufficient to keep Aruba's net external debt near
balance, estimated at 1.3% of CXR in 2019. Aruba's external
interest ratio (4% of CXR) was in line with the 'BB' and 'BBB'
medians in 2019. The Netherlands has also demonstrated support for
Aruba's balance of payments (1986) and Sint Maarten's (unrated)
post-hurricane reconstruction (2017) amid significant shocks and
the Netherlands provided varying degrees of budget support and debt
forgiveness to the former members of the Netherlands Antilles at
its dissolution (2010), underlining its peg assumptions. Under the
charter of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, the Netherlands could
support Aruba with "aid and assistance".

Fitch expects a severe deterioration in public finances due to a
steep loss of tourism and consumption tax revenues and emergency
social assistance and health care measures announced in the 2020
budget, resulting in wider deficits and a large debt increase.
Fitch expects the government balance to swing to a deficit of 25%
of GDP in 2020 from a small surplus of 0.8% of GDP in 2019. Fitch
expects a gradual tourism and economic recovery in 2021 to narrow
the deficit, although downside risks persist to its projections.
Fitch expects the resulting large increase of consolidated
government debt/GDP (net of APFA pension fund holdings), to 92.6%
in 2020 from 62.8% in 2019, to weaken Aruba's debt dynamics with
increased financing costs and greater sustainability risks. Low
potential GDP growth will limit rapid fiscal consolidation and
reduction in the debt burden after the coronavirus pandemic shocks
dissipate.

Fitch assumes that lending from the Netherlands and/or EU funds
meets a substantial share of this financing need, but the
modalities have yet to be determined. Negotiations between the
governments of Aruba and the Netherlands concerning possible
assistance and public finance expectations are underway with
potential developments over the coming weeks. Although Aruba
outperformed its 2019 budget (and the protocol agreement target)
with a small 0.8% of GDP surplus, envisioned tax reform measures
urged by the protocol have been deferred. As a result, fiscal
policy commitment discussions may be more difficult between the
governments.

The financial system enters the crisis with a firm capital cushion,
31% at December 2019, supported by a decade of stable returns, and
modest deposit dollarization, 17% of deposits. Non-performing
loans, which started the year moderate at 3.9%, reached 10.7% in
2010, after the Great Financial Crisis. Foreign private capital
backs the majority of hotel interests in Aruba, focusing bank asset
risks on consumer and other business loans, which government
emergency assistance measures will partially alleviate.
Nevertheless, the sharp rise in unemployment for any households
uncovered by social security payments and the damage to other
businesses could be large, leading to a significant deterioration
in banks' asset quality.

Aruba's ratings reflect its higher per-capita income than peers,
long-standing political and macroeconomic stability, and the
institutional strengths of Aruba's membership of the Kingdom of the
Netherlands. Economic concentration in tourism is a key weakness.

ESG - Governance: Aruba has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of 5 for
both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law,
Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption, as
is the case for all sovereigns. These scores reflect the high
weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in its
proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Aruba has a high WBGI ranking
in the 86th percentile, reflecting its long track record of stable
and peaceful political transitions, well established rights for
participation in the political process, strong institutional
capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Aruba a score equivalent to a
rating of 'BBB-' on the LT FC IDR scale.

Fitch's sovereign rating committee adjusted the output from the SRM
to arrive at the final LT FC IDR by applying its QO, relative to
rated peers, as follows:

  -- Macroeconomic performance, policies, and prospects: -1 notch,
to reflect both Aruba's weak near-term growth prospects resulting
from the coronavirus pandemic shock to tourism and low longer-term
prospects for the narrowly-based economy as well as from the
Aruba's relative lack of fiscal policy credibility and lower
monetary policy discretion under the exchange rate peg.

  -- Public finances: -1 notch, to reflect very high government
debt levels. The SRM is estimated on the basis of a linear approach
to government debt/GDP and does not fully capture the risk at high
debt levels.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating
model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred
averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score
equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking
qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM
output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within its
criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected
in the SRM.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

  -- Emergence of financing constraints, such as in the absence of
material financial support from the Kingdom of the Netherland
and/or other sources of funding;

  -- Failure to stabilize and eventually reduce government debt/GDP
ratio;

  -- Sharp reduction in international reserves that undermines the
credibility of the peg.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a
stabilization of the Outlook/positive rating action/upgrade are:

  -- Evidence of a material financial support package from the
Kingdom of the Netherlands that increases confidence in debt
sustainability;

  -- Sustained fiscal consolidation that stabilizes and eventually
reduces government debt/GDP;

  -- Higher private investment leading to a sustained faster growth
trajectory.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of Public Finance issuers have a best-case rating upgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a
three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three
years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit
ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best-
and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  -- The global economy performs in line with Fitch's Global
Economic Outlook.

  -- Fitch assumes that the global tourism industry experiences a
gradual recovery extending into 2021 after the initial, sharp shock
from the coronavirus pandemic this year.

  -- Aruba will continue to benefit from broad support from the
Dutch government due to its status as part of the Kingdom of the
Netherlands, including some form of financial support that supports
interest and debt sustainability.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Aruba has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Political Stability and
Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight
in Fitch's SRM and are highly relevant to the rating and a key
rating driver with a high weight.

Aruba has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Rule of Law,
Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as
World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's
SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key
rating driver with a high weight.

Aruba has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms as strong social stability and voice and
accountability are reflected in the World Bank Governance
Indicators that have the highest weight in the SRM. They are
relevant to the rating and a rating driver.

Aruba has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and
is a rating driver for the U.S., as for all sovereigns.

Aruba has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Human Development, Health
and Education as managing the impact of the coronavirus crisis is
having an adverse impact on the economy, which is relevant to the
rating and a rating driver.

The highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score
of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a
minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their
nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the
entity(ies).

PRINCESS JULIANA: Moody's Affirms Ba3 Rating, Alters Outlook to Neg
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service affirmed the Ba3 rating assigned to
Princess Juliana Intl Airport Op Company N.V.'s (PJIA) $142.6
million (approximate original issuance amount) Senior Secured Notes
due 2027. Moody's also changed the outlook to negative from
stable.

Affirmations:

Issuer: Princess Juliana Intl Airport Op Company N.V.

Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed Ba3

Outlook Actions:

Issuer: Princess Juliana Intl Airport Op Company N.V.

Outlook, Changed to Negative from Stable

RATINGS RATIONALE

Its rating action reflects PJIA's exposure to sharply declining
traffic and revenues in 2020 stemming from materially lower demand
and travel restrictions resulting from the coronavirus outbreak.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
Environmental, Social and Governance framework, given the
substantial implications for public health and safety that lead to
severe restrictions to air travel and thus cancellations of airline
routes and closing of borders as well as enhanced requirements to
maintain health and safety in the airport operations.

Moody's assumption is that the coronavirus outbreak will lead to a
period of severe cuts in passenger traffic over the next months but
that there will be a gradual recovery in passenger volumes starting
by the third quarter 2020. On a yearly basis, Moody's currently
expects that the decline in passenger traffic at PJIA will amount
to around 35-45% in 2020 compared to the previous year. Moody's
recognizes that more challenging downside scenarios could
materialize.

As a result, Moody's expects that the contraction in cash flow
generation resulting from the declining passenger levels will lead
to a significant deterioration of PJIA's liquidity position.
Specifically, Moody's expects that PJIA will rely significantly on
cash available and $21 million liquidity facility granted by the
Government of St. Maarten (Baa3 stable) over the year for its
operations and debt service payments. Under its base case scenario,
Moody's does not expect PJIA to rely on its 6-month debt service
reserve fund, unless the company is unable to reduce costs or the
enplanement recovery takes longer than expected. Nonetheless, it
projects that PJIA will breach the minimum debt service coverage
ratio covenant that will require waivers from bondholders by Q3.

RATING OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects the downside risks stemming from the
impact on the coronavirus on passenger performance and cash
generation capacity which could lead to weaker liquidity.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING

In light of the negative outlook, upward rating pressure on PJIA's
ratings is unlikely in the near future.

The rating could be downgraded if the coronavirus outbreak has a
longer and continued impact on passenger levels that lead to a
material reduction of available liquidity sources or its assessment
that PJIA will not be able to obtain waivers from bondholders after
the breach of covenants.

ABOUT PRINCESS JULIANA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Princess Juliana International Airport Operating Company N.V. is a
private corporation with regulated rate setting ability. PJIAE
operates the Princess Juliana International Airport, which is the
major commercial airport on the island of Sint Maarten/Saint Martin
and serves as a hub for connecting traffic to eight nearby
Caribbean islands such as Anguilla, St. Barths, Tortola, Saba, St.
Eustatius, Nevis, St. Kitts and Dominica. The sole owner of all
capital stock in SXM is Princess Juliana International Airport
Holding Company N.V., which is 100% owned by the Government of St.
Maarten (Baa3 stable). SXM is managed by a Managing Director under
supervision of a Supervisory Board consisting of between three and
seven members.

The methodologies used in this rating were Privately Managed
Airports and Related Issuers published in September 2017.



=========
S P A I N
=========

INSTITUT CATALA: Fitch Affirms 'BB' IDR, Alters Outlook to Neg.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Institut Catala de
Finances' to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IDRs at 'BB'.
Fitch has also affirmed ICF's Short-Term Foreign Currency IDR at
'B'. The long- and short-term ratings on ICF's senior unsecured
outstanding bonds and commercial paper programme have also been
affirmed at 'BB' and 'B', respectively.

The revision of the Outlook reflects the rating action on ICF's
sponsor on March 27, 2020 (see Fitch Revises Autonomous Community
of Catalonia's Outlook to Negative; affirms at 'BB'), as a
consequence of the COVID-19 crisis. Under the Government-Related
Entity Criteria, ICF's IDRs are equalised with the Autonomous
Community of Catalonia's IDRs entirely based on the unchanged
statutory guarantee for ICF's financial obligations from the
Autonomous Community of Catalonia.

The recent outbreak of coronavirus and related government
containment measures worldwide creates an uncertain global
environment for public sector in Spain in the near term. While
ICF's performance data through most recently available issuer data
has indicated strength, material changes in revenue and cost
profile are occurring across the sector and are likely to worsen in
the coming weeks and months as economic activity suffers and
government restrictions are maintained or expanded. Fitch's ratings
are forward-looking in nature, and Fitch will monitor developments
in the sector as a result of the coronavirus outbreak as it relates
to severity and duration, and incorporate revised base and rating
case qualitative and quantitative inputs based on expectations for
future performance and assessment of key risks.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Under the criteria Fitch assesses the strength of linkage in
status, ownership and control, as well as support track record and
expectations; and the incentive to support, which covers the
socio-political and financial implications of a GRE's default.

Status, Ownership and Control: Assessed as Strong

ICF is wholly owned by the regional government of Catalonia and
benefits from a statutory explicit guarantee on its liabilities
from the regional government. As a public entity, in case of
dissolution its assets and liabilities would revert to the regional
government.

Since 2015, and according to ICF's law, the entity has more
independent management, given that the regional government has only
four representatives out of 11 on the board of directors. The three
main commissions (Executive, Audit and Control, Remuneration and
Appointment) have a majority of independent members.

Eurostat classifies ICF as a financial institution
(non-administrative body) of the regional government of Catalonia
and therefore ICF's results and debt are not included in the
regional government's national accounts. The regional annual budget
law only sets limits on ICF's debt (the limit was EUR4 billion in
2019 vs. current debt level of only EUR1 billion in 2019). ICF's
president is the Secretary of the Department of Vice-Presidency,
Economy and Finance of Catalonia and the managing director is
appointed by the regional government.

Support Track Record and Expectations: Assessed as Very Strong

ICF's ratings mirror those of Catalonia, particularly following the
region's enhanced support for ICF via a statutory guarantee as a
result of the July 29, 2011 amendment to the regional Decree Law
4/2002. ICF has not received capital injections from the regional
government of Catalonia since 2013 and given the entity's current
capital solvency, no capital injection is expected according to its
statutes.

Socio-Political Implications of Default: Assessed as Moderate

ICF complements the activity of regional domestic banks.
Nevertheless, the entity has a specific model as it was created to
channel public credit and foster the economic and social
development of Catalonia, in particular SMEs. SMEs in Catalonia
accounted for 55% of total regional employment in December 2019.

ICF has a market share of approximately 7% of lending to its
relevant segment of enterprises in Catalonia, and Fitch considers
that the market is relatively concentrated. Since 2015, ICF has
posted positive net results of a cumulative EUR75.9 million. ICF is
an anti-cyclical entity, maintaining the concession of financing
when private credit becomes more restricted.

Its moderate assessment reflects the fact that ICF's financial
default would not endanger continued provision of its activity,
since the company and its activities benefit from strong regional
government support.

Financial Implication of Default: Assessed as Moderate

ICF had EUR310.4 million debt securities outstanding at the end of
2019, representing 31% of its outstanding debt. A default of ICF
would have a negative impact on the image/creditworthiness of the
regional government of Catalonia. Moreover, ICF is the second
highest indebted regional public entity given its nature as a
financial entity.

Approximately 84% of the regional government's debt is currently in
the form of state mechanisms, so Fitch considers that a
hypothetical default of ICF would have only moderate implications
for the regional government's funding.

Operations

In 2019, ICF generated a result before taxes of EUR38.3 million
(EUR15.9 million in 2018), while its outstanding loans and
guarantees were valued at EUR1.71 billion, from total assets of
EUR2.07 billion. Its coverage ratio was estimated in 2019 at
150.9%, which is high compared with other credit institutions in
Spain.

Credit risk has reduced throughout the years and its solvency ratio
according to Basel 3, was high at 47.3% at the end of 2019 (39.8%
in 2018). Meanwhile, at end of 2019 financial debt reached EUR1.0
billion a decline versus EUR1.3 billion in 2018, due to the early
amortisation of debt.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Under Fitch's GRE top-down rating approach, the strength of linkage
with the regional government as well as the incentive to provide
support lead to an overall score of 25 points so that ICF could be
credit linked to the regional government of Catalonia, but the
statutory, irrevocable and unconditional guarantee allow us to
override this and equalise ICF's rating with the regional
government of Catalonia's rating.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

ICF's IDR could be upgraded if Catalonia's IDR is upgraded.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

ICF's IDR could be downgraded if Catalonia's IDR is downgraded.

A weakening in its assessment of the guarantee from the regional
government on ICF's liabilities could eventually lead to a
downgrade depending on its standalone credit profile.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of Public Finance issuers have a best-case rating upgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a
three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three
years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit
ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best-
and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS

The ratings of ICF are linked to the Autonomous Community of
Catalonia's.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).

PROMOTORA DE INFORMACIONES: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, Outlook Neg.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the corporate family
rating of Promotora de Informaciones, S.A., a leading provider of
cultural, educational, information and entertainment to the Spanish
and Portuguese speaking markets, to B3 from B2. The outlook has
been changed to negative from stable.

"The downgrade reflects the weaker than expected operating
performance in 2019 and the expected revenue and profitability
contraction caused by the coronavirus outbreak which will lead to
deterioration in credit metrics and liquidity in 2020 and 2021,"
says Victor Garcia Capdevila, a Moody's AVP-Analyst and lead
analyst for Prisa.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented.

The media sector has been affected by the shock given its
sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment and advertisement
budgets. More specifically, the weaknesses in Prisa's credit
profile, including its large exposure to Latin America and Spain
have left it vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in these
unprecedented operating conditions and the company remains
vulnerable to the outbreak continuing to spread. Moody's regards
the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its ESG framework,
given the substantial implications for public health and safety.
Its action reflects the impact on Prisa of the breadth and severity
of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit quality it has
triggered.

The company's performance in 2019 has been weaker than expected
when Moody's assigned the initial rating of B2. The company's
EBITDA in 2019 reached EUR237 million, a 19% shortfall compared to
Moody's expectations. Three out of the four business segments
underperformed Moody's expectations, particularly TV (-50%) and
Press (-50%) and to a less extent Radio (-10%). These traditional
media segments face structural challenges and are vulnerable to an
economic downturn given the cyclical nature of the advertising
markets.

The rating agency expected Prisa to reach Moody's-adjusted
consolidated EBITDA of EUR291 million in 2019, including Media
Capital.

The rating agency expects Prisa's Moody's-adjusted consolidated
EBITDA to reduce by 22% to EUR185 million in 2020 compared to
EUR237 million in 2019. This is mainly due to demand shock caused
by the coronavirus outbreak which Moody's estimates will reduce
revenue in the Education business by around 10% and in the Radio
and Press divisions by about 25% year-on-year. Profitability is
also likely to be negatively affected by adverse foreign exchange
movements as currencies in Latin America have depreciated against
the euro and USD, particularly since the start of the year. The
negative foreign currency impact in EBITDA in 2019 was around EUR10
million.

Moody's-adjusted gross leverage stood at 6.1x in 2019 (2018: 6.3x)
compared to the rating agency's original expectations of 4.9x. In
2020, Moody's expects leverage to increase to around 8.0x and
reduce towards 7.0x in 2021.

LIQUIDITY

The company's liquidity profile is adequate, although it could be
under pressure in the event there is a covenant breach under the
company's senior facilities. Moody's estimates that as of the end
of March 2020, the group had cash and cash equivalents of around
EUR260 million, out of which about EUR10 million is restricted
cash. The EUR80 million revolving credit facility was fully drawn
in Q1 2020. Moody's estimates that the company will generate
negative free cash flow of around EUR-25 million in 2020 and EUR-10
million in 2021. Prisa also faces mandatory debt repayments of
EUR15 million and EUR25 million 2020 and 2021, respectively.
Moody's assumes that the company needs a minimum cash buffer of
about EUR30 million at all times to run the business smoothly.
Intra-year working capital swings are relatively high, reaching up
to EUR50 million in some quarters. The financial covenants in the
company's senior facility agreements tightens overtime, and with
leverage increasing because of the negative impact of the
coronavirus outbreak, Moody's believes there is a high risk of
covenant breach in the coming quarters. In such event, the company
would need to secure a covenant waiver.

RATIONALE FOR NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects the high leverage of the company and
the downside risks related to a potential continuation of the
operating disruption into Q4 2020 and beyond.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATING

Positive rating pressure is unlikely in the current operating
environment. A rating upgrade would require a reduction in
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage below 5.0x and increased visibility
on the refinancing of the current capital structure in light of the
debt maturity wall in 2022.

Downward rating pressure could develop should operating conditions
deteriorate more than currently anticipated leading to a
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage remaining sustainably above 6.5x or
if the liquidity profile deteriorates.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: Promotora de Informaciones, S.A.

Downgrade:

Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to B3 from B2

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed to Negative from Stable

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in this rating was Media Industry
published in June 2017.

COMPANY PROFILE

Promotora de Informaciones, S.A., headquartered in Madrid (Spain),
is the leading provider of cultural, educational, informative and
entertainment content to the Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking
markets. It has a presence in 24 countries and offers its content
through four business lines: Education, Radio, Press and
Audiovisual. In 2019, Prisa reported revenue of EUR1,096 million
and EBITDA of EUR242 million.



===========================
U N I T E D   K I N G D O M
===========================

BEALES GOURMET: Coronavirus Outbreak Prompts Administration
-----------------------------------------------------------
Andy Martin at Daily Echo reports that Beales Gourmet, one of
Dorset's highest profile event catering businesses, has gone into
administration as a result of the coronavirus outbreak.

According to Daily Echo, the closure of all non-essential business
activity and introduction of social distancing guidelines has
forced the company to cease trading.

Along with the two directors and owners, Molly and Tony Beales, the
firm employs 14 permanent staff, along with 6 regular casual staff,
Daily Echo discloses.

All permanent staff have been furloughed, Daily Echo notes.

Business advisory firm Quantuma have been appointed as joint
administrators of events company Beales Gourmet Ltd ("Beales
Gourmet"), Daily Echo relates.

It is actively seeking buyers for the business and welcomes any
interested parties, Daily Echo discloses.

If the administrators are unable to secure a sale of the business,
there is still the prospect clients who have weddings and other
events booked and have paid deposits will secure at least a partial
return, Daily Echo states.

"We are exploring the possibility of securing buyers for the
internal and external event sections of the business in an effort
to maximize the return for clients and creditors, secure employment
and potentially provide continuity for some of the clients who have
weddings and other events booked," Daily Echo quotes David Meany of
Quantuma as saying.


CARLUCCIO'S: Employees Can Access Gov't Job Retention Scheme
------------------------------------------------------------
Henry Martin at MailOnline reports that employees at companies that
go into administration amid the ongoing coronavirus crisis could
get access to the Government's job retention scheme -- after staff
at restaurant chain Carluccio's won a landmark legal case.

Carluccio's went into administration on March 30, casting a shadow
over the future of its 71 UK restaurants and 2,000 employees,
MailOnline relates.

The Unite union took legal action because it was concerned that
those workers who had not yet responded to an offer by the
administrators faced the prospect of being made redundant over the
Easter bank holiday weekend, MailOnline recounts.

Insolvency laws mean administrators have 14 days to make staff
redundant in order to avoid liability for their employment and
wages, meaning Easter Monday was the last day those staff could be
dismissed, MailOnline states.

But High Court judge Mr. Justice Snowden's direction means the
scheme, announced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak as part of the
Government's business support package, can be used by companies in
administration during the Covid-19 crisis, MailOnline notes.

According to MailOnline, experts say the ruling provides "valuable
breathing space" to administrators in the wake of the coronavirus
outbreak, and "may help save jobs" that would otherwise be lost
among financially troubled companies.

Howard Beckett, Unite's assistant general secretary for political
and legal affairs, as cited by MailOnline, said the ruling could
provide a boost to staff at other firms recently entering
administration.


CONNECT BIDCO: Moody's Affirms B1 CFR, Alters Outlook to Negative
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has changed the ratings outlook to
negative from stable for Connect Bidco Limited, the top-entity of
the ring-fenced group that owns Inmarsat Limited after its
acquisition in late 2019 by Connect Top Co Limited (a joint venture
company formed by private equity groups Apax and Warburg Pincus
alongside Canada's CPPIB and Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board)
as well as for its rated subsidiaries.

At the same time, Moody's has affirmed the B1 corporate family
rating and B1-PD probability of default rating at Connect Bidco
Limited. The agency has also affirmed the B1 ratings for the
USD1.75 billion term loan B (due 2026), USD 2.075 billion senior
secured notes (due 2026) and USD700 million of revolving Credit
Facility (RCF, due 2024) issued by Connect Finco Sarl and Connect
U.S. Finco LLC.

The change in ratings outlook to negative reflects the pressures
from the global outbreak of coronavirus on Inmarsat's usage-based
aviation revenues, some softness in the non-subscription based
maritime revenues and a portion of maritime wholesale revenue
realized via certain distributors which are likely to be
financially stressed in 2020. Nevertheless, Inmarsat's comfortable
liquidity position, provides a good cushion at a time when its
profitability and cash flow generation is likely to be negatively
impacted.

"Moody's expects the Moody's adjusted gross leverage for Connect
Bidco to peak at over 6.5x in 2020 currently assuming a USD100
million decline in revenues and a USD50-75 million decline in
reported EDITDA versus its previous forecasts for the year", says
Gunjan Dixit, a Moody's Vice President -- Senior Credit Officer and
lead analyst for Connect Bidco.

"While 2021 will likely see some recovery in the business, the
negative outlook captures the risk of weaker than currently
anticipated 2020 as well as a slower recovery in 2021 particularly
in the usage-based aviation revenues", adds Ms. Dixit.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Revenue weakness in 2020 will primarily be driven by the pressure
in revenue in Inmarsat's Aviation segment which Moody's estimates
accounted for around 22% of total 2019 revenues. While Inmarsat's
key commercial airline customers are facing significant operational
pressures in 2020 due to the coronavirus related travel
disruptions, Moody's expects the large airlines such as Deutsche
Lufthansa Aktiengesellschaft (Ba1, RUR-down), British Airways, Plc
(Baa3, RUR-down), to receive potential government support if
needed, in this exceptionally difficult time. Nevertheless, demand
for Inmarsat's usage-based services is likely to be meaningfully
impacted and the company will likely face pricing pressure for its
products/services in the near future.

Within the Aviation segment, the Business and General Aviation
(BGA) revenues (around 9% of total revenue in 2019) will see some
softness in the usage-based revenues (around 50% of total BGA
revenues) in the year versus Moody's previous assumption of healthy
growth. Moody's expects the subscription-based part of this
business to show some resilience and also expects the
subscription-based portion of the Aircraft Operational & Safety
services (around 4% of total revenue in 2019) to remain somewhat
insulated.

Commercial in-flight connectivity (IFC; around 9% of total revenue
in 2019) will be most impacted and will decline in 2020, compared
with Moody's previous expectation of robust double-digit growth.
The usage-based airtime revenue (around 43% of total IFC revenue in
2019) is likely to see a sharp shortfall and a slower pace of
airline installations will potentially lead to delay in revenue
realization in 2021. While the significant financial strain on
Inmarsat's key airlines customers means there is a risk of
cancellations or delays to IFC installations (around 31% of total
IFC revenue), Moody's recognizes that installation business
generates very low margin and so will not have a material negative
impact on Inmarsat's profitability. Moody's expects the
subscription-based portion of IFC's revenues (around 26% of total
IFC revenue in 2019) to remain largely resilient subject to the
business continuity of Inmarsat's customers.

Moody's currently expects Connect Bidco's maritime revenues (around
38% of total revenue in 2019) to decline only modestly in 2020
versus Moody's previous expectation of largely flat revenues for
the year. The softness will be primarily driven by lower maritime
installation revenue, some softness in other non-subscription based
revenues as well as some reduction in revenue from some of
Inmarsat's wholesale business with distributors, such as Speedcast
International Limited (Ca/negative), which is under extreme
financial stress being exposed to cruise lines which are impacted
by the coronavirus outbreak. Nevertheless, Moody's still
anticipates that usage-based revenue from global merchant shippers
to remain relatively resilient. Also c. 80% of the Maritime
division's revenues are subscription based and will likely show
some resilience.

Moody's does not expect a material negative impact from the
coronavirus related disruptions on Inmarsat's enterprise segment
(around 8% of total revenue in 2019) and government segment (around
31% of total revenue in 2019).

The agency currently expects the company's EBITDA to be lower
around USD50-75 million versus its previous forecasts for 2020.
EBITDA impact is helped by cost savings including a lower cost of
sales and lower bonus payments. A significant portion of the cost
base is in pound sterling and therefore a weaker pound sterling
will also have some offsetting impact on profitability. However,
2020 will no longer be seen as big a shift in the company's
revenue-mix in aviation towards high-margin usage-based airtime as
was previously anticipated. The decline in EBITDA expectation
signals that Inmarsat's leverage (as adjusted by Moody's) will come
under strain in 2020. Moody's now expects an adjusted gross debt/
EBITDA of over 6.5x in 2020, from about 5.7x expectation in its
previous base case.

Moody's expects Inmarsat's negative free cash flow will be
adversely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on estimates at
the current time this could be around USD100 million worse than
planned in 2020 and 2021 depending on how long the impact persists.
This is despite the company's efforts to lower its cost base, and
all areas of capex in 2020. The agency expects the lower interest
cost on variable debt to be largely offset by the interest on the
drawings under the RCF. Moody's expects a largely neutral working
capital movement from a cash perspective in 2020 reflecting
overdues arising where customers are constrained.

Moody's considers Connect Bidco's liquidity as sufficient. The
company had cash and cash equivalents of USD400 million at the end
of March 2020 as the company drew its USD700 million RCF by just
under 40%. The cash on company's balance sheet should be sufficient
to cover for its cash needs beyond cash flow generated from
operations in 2020. Moody's does not currently expect the company
to draw under its RCF beyond 40% in 2020. The RCF is constricted by
a maintenance leverage covenant (of 9.0x Senior Secured First Lien
Net Leverage Ratio to be tested when RCF is drawn by greater of
USD240 million or 40% of the outstanding commitments).

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak in 2020,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The usage-based
mobility business of the satellite communications operators in the
aviation and maritime sectors has been affected by the shock. While
Connect Bidco's 80% of revenues are recurring, its usage-based
exposure to the aviation and maritime segments has left it
vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in these unprecedented
operating conditions, particularly if the outbreak continues to
spread or remains an issue for a prolonged period. Moody's regards
the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its ESG framework,
given the substantial implications for public health and safety.
Its rating action reflects the impact on Connect Bidco (or
Inmarsat) of the breadth and severity of the shock, and the broad
deterioration in credit quality it has triggered.

RATING OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects the risk of (1) a steeper than
currently expected fall in revenues and EBITDA in 2020 and (2) a
slower than currently anticipated recovery in the business in
2021.

Stabilization of outlook will require some recovery in the
company's business from second half of 2020 such that 2021 sees the
business trends normalizing in a way that the company's gross
leverage (Moody's adjusted) begins to trend towards the 5.5x.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Positive pressure on the ratings is unlikely over the next 12-18
months. It could develop over time should (1) Inmarsat demonstrate
sustained solid revenue and EBITDA growth; (2) its gross
debt/EBITDA (Moody's-adjusted) decreases sustainably and materially
below 5.0x; and (2) the company reaches and sustains positive free
cash flows (FCF, Moody's adjusted) on a normalized basis.

Downward ratings pressure would materialize if (1) Inmarsat's
revenue and EBITDA come under sustained pressure beyond 2020 (2)
its debt load increases relative to EBITDA, such that its gross
leverage (Moody's-adjusted gross debt/EBITDA) remains materially
above 5.5x beyond 2020; and/ or (2) its free cash flow is likely to
remain materially negative beyond 2021. There would also be
downward rating pressure if the company's liquidity were to
significantly deteriorate.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Affirmations:

Issuer: Connect Bidco Limited

Probability of Default Rating, Affirmed B1-PD

Corporate Family Rating, Affirmed B1

Issuer: Connect Finco Sarl

BACKED Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Affirmed B1

BACKED Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed B1

Outlook Actions:

Issuer: Connect Bidco Limited

Outlook, Changed to Negative from Stable

Issuer: Connect Finco Sarl

Outlook, Changed to Negative from Stable

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Communications
Infrastructure Industry published in September 2017.

COMPANY PROFILE

Headquartered in London, U.K., Inmarsat Limited is a market leader
in global mobile satellite communication services. The company has
an in-orbit fleet of 13 owned and operated satellites in
geostationary orbit and provides a comprehensive portfolio of
global mobile satellite communications services for customers on
the move or in remote areas for use on land, at sea and in the air.
In its fiscal year ended December 31, 2019, Inmarsat plc reported
revenue of USD1.345 billion and EBITDA of USD700 million.

INMARSAT GROUP: Moody's Withdraws Ba2 CFR on Debt Repayment
-----------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has withdrawn the Ba2 corporate family
rating and the Ba2-PD probability of default rating of Inmarsat
Group Holdings Limited.

At the time of the withdrawal, the rating was under review for
downgrade. Inmarsat's debt previously rated by Moody's has been
fully repaid.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Moody's has decided to withdraw the ratings due to full repayment
of all rated debt.

OASIS AND WAREHOUSE: On Brink of Administration, Sale Unlikely
--------------------------------------------------------------
Sarah Butler at The Guardian reports that the fashion chains Oasis
and Warehouse are to collapse into administration, putting about
2,300 jobs at risk.

According to The Guardian, the advisory firm Deloitte will handle
the insolvency process for the companies, which, until the
coronavirus lockdown, operated 90 standalone stores and more than
400 concessions in department stores including Debenhams and House
of Fraser.

The business, which is controlled by the Icelandic bank Kaupthing,
had been seeking a new investor to take on the fashion chains, The
Guardian discloses.  At least two prospective buyers are thought to
have come forward but a deal is unlikely to be finalized before the
imminent administration, The Guardian notes.

Uncertainty around the coronavirus crisis is understood to have
made a solvent sale impossible to conclude, The Guardian relays,
citing Sky News.

Oasis and Warehouse's stores in the UK all closed temporarily last
month under the government's lockdown aimed at controlling the
spread of coronavirus, The Guardian states.

Kaupthing took control of Oasis and Warehouse in 2009 when the
former parent group Mosaic collapsed into administration, The
Guardian recounts.


PINNACLE BIDCO: Fitch Cuts LT IDR to B-, Outlook Negative
---------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Pinnacle Bidco's (Pure Gym) Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating to 'B-' from 'B' and its GBP430 million
senior secured notes (originally GBP360 million) to 'B'/RR3/51%
from 'B+'/RR3/56%. The Outlook on the IDR is Negative.

The downgrade is driven by Pure Gym's slower than anticipated
deleveraging to a level consistent with a 'B' rating, amid the
coronavirus outbreak, in the context of already elevated leverage
following the debt- funded Fitness World acquisition. Fitch
believes the company has sufficient liquidity headroom to weather a
lockdown period of at least three to six months, while its low-cost
business model should help the company recover and perform well in
a recessionary environment.

The Negative Outlook reflects the uncertainty around the intensity
of the negative impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the group's
operating and financial performance, especially if the current
lockdown continues for longer than three or six months, signaling
limited liquidity headroom. However, if visibility improves after
the COVID-19 disruption (from summer 2020) Fitch could revise the
Outlook to Stable.

The 'B-' rating also takes into consideration Pure Gym's market
position as the second-largest fitness and gym operator in Europe
and improved geographic diversification gaining presence in four
European countries as a result of the latest acquisition.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Slower Deleveraging: Funds from operations adjusted gross leverage
will exceed levels consistent with a 'B' rating due to the
coronavirus disruption at 7.6x for FY21. This compares with its
prior forecasts of 6.7x for FY21 post Fitness World acquisition
(which was funded with a GBP378 million (EUR445 million) bridge
loan, completed in January 2020). Following business recovery after
the coronavirus outbreak with continued focus on free cash flow
generation, the speed of deleveraging and repayment of drawings
under currently fully drawn GBP95 million RCF would be offset by
capital allocation towards growth. Fitch assumes a slightly more
cautious approach to new gym openings, leading to slower
deleveraging to below 7.0x only by 2023.

Sufficient Liquidity Headroom: Under a scenario of three months of
gym closures, Pure Gym has a sufficient liquidity cushion to
weather the COVID-19 crisis due to its decent liquidity position
(GBP150 million available liquidity as of March 31, 2020) and its
ability to considerably reduce cash burn, aided by government
support measures and cost cutting. All Pure Gym's sites were closed
by March 21 as mandated by governments and gym memberships frozen.

Fitch estimates mitigating actions to reduce weekly cash burn to
GBP5.2 million from GBP9.0 million, with half of the reduction
coming from government support. The company is in advanced
negotiations with its landlords to reduce its rents over the
lockdown period. The liquidity position is further supported by no
imminent maturities until 2024.

Value/ Cost Business Model: Pure Gym's value/low cost business
model is expected to recover more quickly when gyms reopen and
perform better in a recessionary environment than its traditional
peers. Fitch estimates initial recovery of monthly subscriptions at
80% due to some attrition given expected economic weakness and
social distancing, with full recovery in memberships by 1Q21.
Monthly fees are typically 50% lower than for traditional private
operators and the majority of members do not have membership
contracts with notice periods.

Fitch believes this provides Pure Gym with a competitive advantage
as consumer preferences are expected to shift to seek lower
cost-value propositions in a recessionary environment. The business
model is further strengthened by Pure Gym's variable pricing
strategy where local markets define the company's positioning,
allowing the group to preserve margins while competing with local
peers.

Acquisition Neutral to the Rating: The acquisition of Fitness World
is neutral to the rating (pre-COVID-19) as the improvement in the
business profile is offset by initially weaker financial metrics.
As a result of the acquisition of Fitness World, Pure Gym gained
presence in four European countries, improving its geographic
diversification, and increased its scale with over 500 gyms
combined and 1.7 million members, making it the second-largest gym
and fitness operator in Europe. Pure Gym plans to bring this
pricing model to Fitness World's markets, which provides some
synergy opportunities.

Limited Execution Risks: Although the two entities have very
similar business models and are strategically aligned, Fitch
expects that the combined group's profitability (Fitch-defined
EBITDA margin around 27%) will be lower than Pure Gym's standalone
profile (Fitch-estimated FY19E: 29.4%) given Fitness World's higher
share of staff costs, and being less digitally-driven than Pure
Gym. The combined group's PF FFO margin of at least 18% is healthy
for the rating. Management expects only modest synergies, primarily
through procurement and sharing best practices.

Fitch believes that the acquisition poses some execution risks,
albeit manageable, as Pure Gym has solely operated in the UK so far
and has no direct market expertise or presence in continental
Europe.

Growing Value Gym Market: The rating reflects Pure Gym's position
in one of the fastest growing segments of the gym market. The
European fitness market grew by 2.4% between 2015 and 2018 and is
expected to continue growing in the medium term. (Source: European
Health and Fitness Market Report). The growth is primarily driven
by the value segment and, to a lower extent, by the premium
segment. The value segment in the UK is also expected to grow and
Pure Gym is well-positioned to benefit from these market trends
given its value proposition. Fitch expects the growth of the
European gym market will be weighted even more towards the value
gym segment given the expectation of recessionary economic
environment after the COVID-19 crisis.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Pure Gym's IDR reflects the group's position as the second-largest
gym and fitness operator in Europe following the acquisition of
Fitness World with 500 gyms combined and 1.7 million members. Due
to its scale and a value/low-cost business model, it operates on
higher EBITDAR margins than the median for gym operators rated by
Fitch, including those within its credit opinion food/non-food
retail/ leisure portfolios. Due to the competitive nature of its
pricing structure it has been taking market share mainly from its
mid-market peers.

Leverage is high at around 7.6x on a FFO gross lease-adjusted basis
in FY21 amid coronavirus disruption but in line with similar
leisure credits in the low 'B' rating category. Historically its
development programme has involved significant capex that reduces
FCF available for deleveraging, constraining the rating. However,
Pure Gym's cash flow conversion, and hence its deleveraging
capability, is structurally better than high-street retailers.

Relative to other leisure credits more broadly, such as Cineworld
(B+/RWN), both companies enjoy strong positions in core markets and
demonstrate a cash-generative business model despite hefty capex to
either expand or invest in equipment. Cineworld is exposed to
financial volatility from the dependency on the success of film
releases, changing secular trends while Pure Gym is characterised
by smaller scale but relatively better profitability, even though
both credits are exposed to discretionary consumer spend. The
two-notch rating differential with Pure Gym currently reflects the
latter's smaller scale, higher FFO leverage and lower fixed charge
cover.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - Fitch assumes that all of the gyms within the group will be
closed for three months due to the coronavirus outbreak

  - Fitch expects eight new gym openings in 2020, which has been
already completed by end March while the rest of the planned gym
openings have been postponed for the year. Afterwards Fitch expects
Pure Gym to open 30 gyms per year.

  - Average members per gym in 2020 expected to decline by around
10% resulting from increased cancellations due to the coronavirus
outbreak and fewer people joining after the gyms reopen due to
weaker consumer confidence and lower amount of disposable income.
This is partially mitigated by more members joining from the mid
and premium segments supported by the company's low-cost business
profile, which supports good recovery in 2021. After 2021, Fitch
expects average members per gym to decline gradually driven by a
large number of new gym openings ramping up and a higher share of
small format boxes that have lower capacities.

  - Sales expected to decline by around 35% in 2020 resulting from
the closures of all gyms for a three-month period and membership
cancellations resulting from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak
on the economy.

  - EBITDA margin estimated to decline to 1.7% for 2020 driven by
the Fitch estimated cash burn of GBP4.2 million/week during the
three-month closure. In 2021, Fitch expects EBITDA margin to
improve to 27% and gradually improve thereafter resulting from the
maturation of new gyms and cost efficiency measures.

  - Capex expected to decline to GBP30 million in 2020 as Pure Gym
has postponed all new site capital expenditure and most
refurbishment projects. Fitch projects capex to average at GBP80
million afterwards, driven by its expectation of 30 new gym
openings per year.

  - No dividends, no acquisitions

  - FY2019 is reported under IFRS16. Fitch derives the
Fitch-adjusted "ongoing lease charge" from the interest on lease
liability payments of GBP29.0 million and depreciation on leased
assets of GBP20.8 million (reclassified as opex).

KEY RECOVERY RATING ASSUMPTIONS

The recovery analysis assumes that Pure Gym would be considered a
going concern in bankruptcy rather than liquidated. Fitch has
assumed a 10% administrative claim. The going-concern EBITDA
estimate reflects Fitch's view of a sustainable,
post-reorganisation EBITDA level upon which it bases the valuation
of the company.

Pure Gym's going concern EBITDA is based on 2022 projected EBITDA
to reflect the profits brought by the acquisition of Fitness World
and recovery from the coronavirus impact. This going-concern EBITDA
assumes the worst EBITDA could conceivably go as low as GBP95
million-GBP100 million, leading to an unsustainable capital
structure, before stabilising at around GBP103 million
(post-restructuring). This represents a discount by 20% from the
2022 projected EBITDA, reflecting intensifying competitive dynamics
(partly offset by the relatively resilient format given its lower
price point but lack of contracts). The EBITDA discount is still
above the discount seen with other privately-operated gyms and
leisure clubs.

The current Fitch-distressed EV/EBITDA multiples for other gym
operators in the 'B' rating category has been around 5x to 6x.
Fitch recognises that the company has a leading market share in the
growing value gym market and this justifies a 5.5x multiple,
although Pure Gym currently does not have any unique
characteristics that would allow for a higher multiple, such as a
significant unique brand, or undervalued assets (ie. real estate).

The GBP95 million revolving credit facility (RCF), which ranks
super-senior to the senior secured notes, is assumed to be fully
drawn upon default.

After deducting 10% for administrative claims, its principal
waterfall analysis generates a ranked recovery for the new senior
secured debt in the 'RR3' category, leading to a 'B' rating for the
senior secured bonds. The waterfall analysis output percentage
based on current metrics and assumptions is 51% (previously 56% for
the existing senior secured debt), at the lowest end of the RR3
level, leaving no headroom for additional senior secured debt in
the capital structure at this RR level.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action (Outlook revised to Stable):

  - Stabilisation of liquidity position immediately after COVID-19
outbreak normalisation

  - FFO margin trending above 15% and FFO charge cover above 1.5x
on a sustained basis

  - FFO adjusted gross leverage below 7.5x by 2021

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade: (CCC+)

  - Deterioration of liquidity due to longer and more severe impact
from the coronavirus outbreak

  - Loss of revenue and decline in profitability due to economic
weakness, increased competition and pressure on pricing leading to
FFO margins consistently below 15% and FFO fixed charge cover below
1.0x

  - FFO adjusted gross leverage trending above 8.0x from 2021

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years.
The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Satisfactory Liquidity to Decline: In response to the coronavirus
outbreak, as a precautionary measure Pure Gym fully drew its RCF in
March 2020, with overall available liquidity at GBP150 million and
GBP10 million in senior overdraft facilities.

In order to preserve liquidity, the company has postponed all new
site capital expenditure and most site refurbishment projects and
has taken other mitigating steps to reduce its cash burn such as
salary reductions, rent waiver request from landlords and the
suspension of all marketing activities. As a result, Fitch expects
that the company's liquidity will be sufficient to cover the cash
needs during the three-month close-down. In addition, Fitch expects
that Pure Gym would not run out of cash even if the close-down is
prolonged to six months although the headroom would become
limited.

The company has no refinancing needs in the near term as the RCF
comes due in 2024 and the senior secured notes and bridge loan (if
converted to term loan in January 2021) mature in 2025.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS
ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).

PROSPECT BUSINESS: Bought Out of Administration by Inc & Co
-----------------------------------------------------------
Mike Phillips at Bisnow reports that Prospect Business Centres, a
flexible office business with multiple sites in London and Leeds
has been sold, with a deal coming after the company fell into
administration.

Prospect Business Centres has been bought by Inc & Co Property
Group, the property arm of Manchester-based digital marketing
company Inc & Co., Bisnow relates.

Partners from FRP were appointed as administrators to Prospect
Business Centres and several of its subsidiaries on March 19, and
sold the business to Inc on March 26, FRP confirmed to Bisnow.  As
a result of the sale, 35 jobs have been saved and transferred with
the business, Bisnow states.

"While the serviced office market has grown quickly in recent
years, it isn't immune to challenges facing many businesses to
sustain cashflow and perform in a competitive sector," Bisnow
quotes FRP Joint Administrator Simon Carvill-Biggs as saying.
"Unfortunately the business was unable to meet its liabilities as
they fell due, which led to the administration."

According to Bisnow, the company and subsidiaries put into
administration, and the properties they occupy, are:  

   -- Prospect Business Centres — Holding company.
   -- Prospect House Leeds Limited — Prospect House, 32 Sovereign
Street, Leeds.
   -- Prospect Business Centres (Furnival Street) — 40 Furnival
Street, London.
   -- Prospect Business Centres (Leadenhall) — 107 Leadenhall
Street, London.
   -- Prospect Business Centres (Mandeville Place) — 5-7
Mandeville Place, London.
   -- Prospect Business Centres (Midtown) — 20 Procter Street,
London.
   -- Prospect Business Centres (Monument) — 16-18 Monument
Street, London.
   -- Prospect Business Centres (Old Jewry) — Becket House, 36
Old Jewry, London.

Prospect Business Centres (Fountain) Limited, the special purpose
vehicle for its site at 4 South Parade, Leeds, remains in
administration and the joint administrators are engaging with the
landlord of the site, Bisnow notes.


THAME & LONDON: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa1, Outlook Negative
----------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to Caa1 from B3 the
Corporate Family Rating and to Caa1-PD from B3-PD the Probability
of Default Rating of Thame and London Limited. Concurrently,
Moody's downgraded to Caa1 from B3 the instrument rating of the
GBP440 million senior secured notes due 2025 issued by TVL Finance
Plc. The rating agency also downgraded to B1 from Ba3 the rating of
the GBP40 million revolving credit facility due 2024, borrowed by
Full Moon Holdco 7 Limited. The outlook on all ratings is changed
to negative from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The lodging sector
has been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the
shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment. More
specifically, Travelodge's hotel operations are severely affected
by travel restrictions and lockdowns implemented in the UK and the
company remains vulnerable to the pandemic continuing to spread.
Its action reflects the impact on Travelodge of the breadth and
severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit
quality it has triggered.

Travelodge's revised ratings and negative outlook reflect the
vulnerability of the company to the impact of the coronavirus on
the travel and leisure sectors. Travelodge's credit metrics, which
were already relatively weak for the previous B3 rating (Moody's
adjusted gross leverage close to 9x in 2019 and Moody's adjusted
EBITA coverage ratio around 1x) are unlikely to quickly recover to
the required levels even once the travel bans are lifted and the
business will return into a more normal stance.

Moody's base case assumptions are that the coronavirus pandemic
will lead to minimum revenues generated in Q2 with a re-opening and
gradual recovery in Q3, which will translate to 35%-40% fall in
revenue for the whole year compared to 2019. However, there are
high risks of more challenging downside scenarios given the
uncertainties around the severity and duration of the pandemic,
government restrictions and consumer sentiment including zero or
close to zero occupancy during the peak summer season.

Travelodge has been focusing on cost reduction and postponing
non-essential capital spending. Approximately two thirds of the
company's costs are considered to be fixed, including payroll and
rent. The latter is relatively high compared to peers and this may
lead to a significant cash burn during the time of very low
occupancy. However, Moody's expects that the company will be able
to benefit from the UK government scheme to compensate for payroll
of the staff as well as business rates holiday. The rating agency
also understands that the company is currently in negotiations with
its landlords to agree potential rent deferral.

Travelodge's ratings positively reflect the company's solid market
position in the UK and the affordable nature of its offering, which
is largely oriented on domestic demand and may see a quicker
recovery beyond the impact of the outbreak compared to
international travel.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL & GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. Moody's considers certain governance considerations
related to Travelodge's ownership which, as is common for private
equity sponsored businesses, has a high tolerance for leverage and
potentially high appetite for shareholder-friendly actions.

LIQUIDITY

Moody's considers Travelodge's liquidity to be weak as it is
challenged by the decline in free cash flow generation. The company
had around GBP130 million cash as of December 2019 pro-forma for
the fully drawn revolving credit facility (RCF) of GBP40 million.
The company is subject to a consolidated net leverage covenant
which Moody's expect to be in breach in the second quarter.
However, should the pandemic extend into Q3 Moody's estimates that
the company will require additional funding to maintain its
liquidity.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

The rated debt consists of a GBP440 million outstanding notes rated
at the same level as CFR and a GBP40 million super senior RCF rated
at B1. The difference reflects relative ranking of the two
instruments in Travelodge's capital structure in the event of
default.

RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects the uncertainties related to the
length and severity of the pandemic, which in a more challenging
downside scenario, would result in further deterioration
Travelodge's liquidity profile and could lead to an unsustainable
capital structure.

FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Upward rating pressure would not arise until the coronavirus
outbreak is brought under control, travel restrictions are lifted,
and travel flows return to more normal levels. Over time, Moody's
could upgrade the company's rating if Travelodge builds a track
record of profitability improvements and deleveraging.
Quantitatively, an upgrade would require Moody's adjusted EBITA /
Interest well above 1x and generating positive free cash flow.

Moody's could downgrade Travelodge's ratings if the hotel closure
extends through or beyond the summer season, leading to further
deterioration in credit metrics and liquidity. Over a longer term a
negative rating action would result from any operational
difficulties that would result in a decline in the company's
EBITDA, sustainably negative free cash flow generation or an
increasing likelihood of debt restructuring.

RATING METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Service Industry published in October 2016.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS:

Downgrades:

Issuer: Thame and London Limited

LT Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to Caa1 from B3

Probability of Default Rating, Downgraded to Caa1-PD from B3-PD

Issuer: Full Moon Holdco 7 Limited

Backed Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Downgraded to B1 from
Ba3

Issuer: TVL Finance plc

Backed Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Caa1
from B3

Outlook Actions:

Issuer: Thame and London Limited

Outlook, Changed to Negative from Stable

Issuer: Full Moon Holdco 7 Limited

Outlook, Changed to Negative from Stable

Issuer: TVL Finance plc

Outlook, Changed to Negative from Stable

PROFILE

Travelodge is a budget hotel chain operating primarily in the
fragmented UK lodging market. As at December 2019, the company
controlled 588 hotels across the UK, Ireland and Spain covering
both urban and roadside locations with the vast majority of rooms
in the UK.

In 2019, Travelodge generated revenues of GBP728 million and
reported EBITDA of GBP129 million. Over 90% of Travelodge's
revenues are generated from room bookings, with most of the
remainder generated from food and beverage sales. Around 80% of the
booking orders are placed on the company's website. As a result of
its 2012 restructuring, the shareholders of Travelodge are funds
advised by Golden Tree Asset Management, Avenue Capital and Goldman
Sachs.


                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills,
Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA.
Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.

Copyright 2020.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2754.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
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