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       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                          E U R O P E

          Friday, April 10, 2020, Vol. 21, No. 73

                           Headlines



A R M E N I A

ARMENIA: Fitch Affirms BB- LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Negative


A Z E R B A I J A N

PASHA INSURANCE: S&P Assigns 'BB+' ICR, Outlook Stable


F I N L A N D

FERRATUM OYJ: Fitch Cuts LT IDR to 'B+', Outlook Negative


F R A N C E

COOKIES ACQUISITION: S&P Assigns 'B' Long-Term ICR, Outlook Stable
NOVARTEX SAS: Moody's Affirms Caa1 CFR, Alters Outlook to Negative


I R E L A N D

ARDAGH PACKAGING: Fitch Rates $500MM Sr. Sec. Notes BB+
INVESCO EURO IV: Fitch Gives B-sf Rating to Class F Notes


I T A L Y

CREDITO VALTELLINESE: DBRS Confirms BB (high) LT Issuer Rating
EVOCA SPA: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, Outlook Stable
INT'L DESIGN: Moody's Affirms B2 CFR, Alters Outlook to Negative
MONTE DEI PASCHI: DBRS Confirms B (high) Long Term Issuer Rating


L U X E M B O U R G

ALGECO INVESTMENTS: Fitch Places 'B' LT IDR on Watch Negative


N E T H E R L A N D S

BOELS TOPHOLDING: Fitch Places BB- LT IDR on Watch Negative
EAGLE INTERMEDIATE: Moody's Cuts CFR, Sr. Sec. Notes Rating to Caa2
IGNITION TOPCO: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative & Affirms 'B' ICR


P O R T U G A L

[*] Fitch Takes Action on 5 Portuguese Banks on Coronavirus Threat


R U S S I A

DME LIMITED: Moody's Places Ba1 CFR on Review for Downgrade


S P A I N

A.I. CANDELARIA: Fitch Dowgrades LT IDR to 'BB+'
NH HOTEL: Fitch Corrects April 1 Ratings Release
SANTANDER CONSUMO 3: DBRS Assigns Prov. BB(high) Rating on E Notes


S W E D E N

QUIMPER AB: Fitch Affirms 'B' LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Negative


T U R K E Y

BURSA METROPOLITAN: Fitch Affirms LT IDR at BB-, Outlook Stable
ISTANBUL METROPOLITAN: Fitch Affirms LT IDR at BB-, Outlook Stable
IZMIR METROPOLITAN: Fitch Affirms LT IDRs at 'BB-', Outlook Stable
MANISA METROPOLITAN: Fitch Affirms LT IDR at BB-, Outlook Stable


U N I T E D   K I N G D O M

BBD BIDCO: S&P Lowers Ratings to 'B-', Outlook Negative
DEBENHAMS PLC: Goes Into Administration for Second Time
DEBENHAMS RETAIL: To Go Into Liquidation, 11 Stores Face Closure
DRAX GROUP: Fitch Affirms LT IDR at BB+, Outlook Stable
ELIZABETH FINANCE 2018: S&P Cuts Class E Notes Rating to 'B (sf)'

JDP FURNITURE: Appoints FRP Advisory to Oversee Administration
NMC HEALTH: UK High Court Judge Puts Business Into Administration
[*] DBRS Changes Trend to Neg. on 3 UK Hospitality CMBS Transaction
[*] UK: More Than Half of Non-Food Retailers May Collapse


X X X X X X X X

[*] BOOK REVIEW: Hospitals, Health and People

                           - - - - -


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A R M E N I A
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ARMENIA: Fitch Affirms BB- LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Negative
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Armenia's Long-Term Issuer
Default Ratings to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IDRs at
'BB-'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The revision of the Outlook reflects the following key rating
drivers and their relative weights:

MEDIUM

The coronavirus shock negatively affects the Armenian economy due
to its exposures to commodities (a majority of exports), the
Russian economy (for remittances, trade and FDI) and to tourism,
only partially offset by the benefit of a lower oil price. This is
in the context of Armenia's relatively high net external debt and
structural current account deficit, which is only partly financed
by non-debt creating capital inflows. Despite a robust
macroeconomic policy framework and continuing commitment to reform,
the economic shock has put public debt on a markedly higher
trajectory, and there are downside risks to its forecasts should
the COVID-19 outbreak not be contained in 2H20 in line with Fitch's
current baseline assumption.

Fitch forecasts the coronavirus shock will drag down GDP growth
from 7.6% in 2019 to 0.5% this year (a 4.4pp downward revision
since its last review six months ago). Growth accelerated in 2H19
to 7.9%, and momentum remained strong in 2M20, providing some
offset to the sharp contraction expected in 2Q20. The government
has announced a state of emergency, with a support package totaling
2.3% of GDP, and the central bank has cut interest rates by 25bp to
5.25% following a fall in inflation to an average -0.1% in the
first two months of 2020.

Fitch projects that GDP growth partially recovers in 2021, to 5.5%,
supported by a rebound in external demand, investment catch-up, and
revival of private consumption and employment growth, with a
moderate drag from fiscal tightening. However, in line with its
global macro-economic forecasts, the pace of recovery will be
highly dependent on the path of the health crisis and the extent to
which the coronavirus outbreak can be contained in 2H20. If a
second wave of infections materializes and lockdown measures have
to be re-introduced, its economic and fiscal forecasts for Armenia
could be subject to material negative adjustment.

Fiscal stimulus and weak growth will push out this year's general
government deficit to a forecast 5.0% of GDP in 2020, up from 1.0%
in 2019. The government's coronavirus stimulus package has a focus
on social support, subsidized lending, and loan refinancing and
risk-sharing, with a high degree of uncertainty over how much will
ultimately fall on the government balance sheet. Fitch anticipates
additional fiscal measures including to directly support
employment, partly offset by under-execution on capital projects
and some reprioritization of non-essential recurrent spending this
year. Fitch forecasts the general government deficit will narrow to
3.5% of GDP in 2021, on the back of stronger GDP growth and a
partial unwinding of support measures, underpinned by the
government's strong commitment to its medium-term fiscal targets.

General government debt is projected to rise from 53.6% at end-2019
to 59.2% of GDP in 2020 before falling back to 56.0% in 2021,
upward revisions of 9.4pp and 7.4pp, respectively, since its last
review, and well above the current 'BB' median of 46.5%. Fitch
assumes some drawdown on central government deposits this year (by
0.8pp to 5.0% of GDP), use of budget support available under
Armenia's IMF precautionary Stand-By Arrangement, and domestic debt
issuances. A high share of government debt is foreign
currency-denominated (79% versus the 'BB' median of 56%) giving
rise to exchange rate risk.

The coronavirus shock has increased external risks to the Armenian
economy. Fitch forecasts the current account deficit remains high,
at 8.5% of GDP in 2020 and 8.1% in 2021, compared with the
2018-2019 average of 8.8% and the current 'BB' median of 2.9%.
Allowing for statistical discrepancies, the actual deficit could be
closer to 5% of GDP, but only around a third of this is covered by
non-debt creating capital inflows. The current account will be
negatively affected this year by a collapse in tourism (which
contributed 0.7pp to last year's balance), the fall in prices of
commodities and lower remittances from Russia. Fitch expects this
to be largely offset by import compression and lower energy costs.
Fitch forecasts that net external debt will increase to 52.9% of
GDP in 2021 from 46.7% in 2019, well above the 'BB' median of
19.4%, and the relatively high bank deposit dollarization ratio, at
52%, adds to risks.

Armenia's 'BB-' IDRs also reflect the following key rating
drivers:

Armenia's institutions have facilitated a peaceful and orderly
political transition, and preserved macroeconomic and financial
stability through a period of external volatility and domestic
political shocks. Governance indicators are moderately above the
peer group median, and there is a credible reform agenda and
commitment to fiscal targets, also underpinned by the IMF Stand-By
Arrangement. Set against these factors are Armenia's lower income
per capita, weaker external finances and higher general government
debt than 'BB' medians. Armenia also has a high reliance on Russia,
borders are closed with two neighbors, and the long-standing
conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh has the potential to
escalate.

An increase in foreign exchange reserves, and the availability of
IFI financing mitigate near-term balance of payments risks. FX
reserves have increased to 4.4 months of current external payments,
from 3.5 months at end-2018, and in line with the 'BB' median.
Fitch expects May's IMF program benchmarks will be met, with up to
USD0.2 billion of budget support available in 2H20, in addition to
which Armenia has USD1.3 billion of undisbursed IFI project
financing in place. These external buffers have helped limit
currency pressures, with the dram depreciating only 4% against the
US dollar over the last month.

Fitch anticipates broad continuity in macroeconomic policy, and a
quickening of structural reform from next year, building on efforts
to tackle corruption and strengthen institutions and public
financial management. The government's Medium-Term Expenditure
Framework targets a 2.2% of GDP increase in capex (to 5% of GDP) in
line with a more growth-enhancing expenditure mix, and the
government lowered corporate tax and introduced a flat income tax
rate this year. The initial coronavirus response has been designed
with a view to also limiting negative impacts on the government's
tax compliance drive. These factors underpin its forecast of a
post-coronavirus fiscal adjustment. Under its longer-term debt
projections, which assume average GDP growth of 4.1% from 2020-2029
(close to the current 'BB' median) and a 0.8pp improvement in the
primary surplus, general government debt declines steadily to 47%
of GDP in 2029.

Banking sector fundamentals will weaken as a result of the
coronavirus shock, captured by the negative banking sector outlook
for 2020. Fitch anticipates a marked worsening in asset quality,
although regulatory forbearance should help banks manage NPL and
capital metrics and avoid statutory limit breaches. At
end-February, the sector NPL ratio was 5.7% and Tier 1 capital
ratio 15.2% (but unevenly distributed within the sector).
Profitability is lower than in similarly rated peers and is
expected to come under pressure due to weaker economic growth and
higher risk costs. Government subsidies and co-financing under the
coronavirus response package will help support the supply of credit
this year. Bank deposits grew 12.2% last year and so far, Fitch
does not observe sizable outflows as a result of stressed market
conditions.

ESG - Governance: Armenia has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for both
Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law,
Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption, as
is the case for all sovereigns. These scores reflect the high
weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in its
proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Armenia has a medium WBGI
ranking at the 46th percentile (an improvement from 42nd in 2017),
reflecting a recent track record of peaceful political transitions,
a moderate level of rights for participation in the political
process, moderate institutional capacity, established rule of law
and a moderate level of corruption.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) AND QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)

Fitch's proprietary SRM assigns Armenia a score equivalent to a
rating of 'BB-' on the LTFC IDR scale.

Fitch's sovereign rating committee did not adjust the output from
the SRM to arrive at the final LTFC IDR.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating
model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centered
averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score
equivalent to a LTFC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking
qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM
output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within its
criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected
in the SRM.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to
negative rating action/downgrade are:

  - A worsening of external imbalances, potentially evidenced by
higher net external debt or current account deficits, or the
recurrence of external financing pressures leading to a fall in
reserves and a rise in the interest burden.

  - Failure to put government debt/GDP on a downward trajectory
over the medium term, for example due to a structural fiscal
loosening or weaker GDP growth prospects

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to
positive rating action/upgrade are:

  - A sustained improvement in external indicators, for example
lower net external debt, a narrower current account deficit or
improved FDI inflows.

  - General government debt/GDP returning to a firm downward path
over the medium term, for example due to a post-coronavirus-shock
fiscal consolidation.

  - Further improvement of structural indicators such as governance
standards, leading to convergence towards the 'BB' peer median.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of Public Finance issuers have a best-case rating upgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a
three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three
years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit
ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best-
and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch assumes that Armenia will continue to experience broad social
and political stability and that there will be no prolonged
escalation in the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh to
a level that would affect economic and financial stability.

Fitch expects macroeconomic indicators to move in line Fitch's
Global Economic Outlook forecasts, but acknowledges that these are
likely to be subject to frequent and possibly significant downward
revisions given the evolving nature of the global crisis.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Armenia has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Political Stability and
Rights as World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight
in Fitch's SRM and are highly relevant to the rating and a key
rating driver with a high weight.

Armenia has an ESG Relevance Score of 5 for Rule of Law,
Institutional & Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption as
World Bank Governance Indicators have the highest weight in Fitch's
SRM and are therefore highly relevant to the rating and are a key
rating driver with a high weight.

Armenia has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Human Rights and
Political Freedoms as strong social stability and voice and
accountability are reflected in the World Bank Governance
Indicators that have the highest weight in the SRM. They are
relevant to the rating and a rating driver.

Armenia has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Creditor Rights as
willingness to service and repay debt is relevant to the rating and
is a rating driver for Armenia, as for all sovereigns.



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A Z E R B A I J A N
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PASHA INSURANCE: S&P Assigns 'BB+' ICR, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BB+' long-term insurer financial
strength and issuer credit ratings to Azerbaijan-based Pasha
Insurance OJSC. The outlook is stable.

S&P said, "The ratings reflect our view of the company's leading
position in the property and casualty (P/C) insurance market of
Azerbaijan and its solid underwriting performance compared with
both local and global peers. At the same time, we note high
industry and country risks in Azerbaijan's P/C insurance sector.
Our ratings on Pasha Insurance are also constrained by the
company's significant exposure to high-risk assets and
concentration risk in the investment portfolio.

"We assess the operating environment for Azerbaijan insurers as
challenging, taking into account macroeconomic trends, a low
insurance penetration rate, and only moderate growth prospects. Our
assessment of insurance industry and country risk (IICRA) is high
for property/casualty (P/C) insurance sector in Azerbaijan,
reflecting these factors. We expect Azerbaijan's real GDP will
contract by 0.7% in 2020, gradually rebounding in the next two
years, reflecting weakness in external demand. This follows our
downward revision of the expected average Brent oil price in 2020
to $30 per barrel from $60 previously, as well as our expectation
for a global recession in 2020, with GDP rising by just 0.4%.
Therefore, we expect P/C insurance sector premium growth in
Azerbaijan will not exceed 5% annually in the next two years, and
that the sector will largely depend on regulatory measures to
develop new lines of business and increase market transparency.
Despite a number of new regulatory initiatives, we expect their
implementation might take time and require additional effort from
the regulator. Taking this into account, as well as declining
business activity and GDP growth prospects, we believe insurance
spending will remain at $20-$25 per capita, while insurance
penetration will remain low and close to the five-year average of
0.5%.

"These many factors also weigh on our assessment of Pasha
Insurance's operating environment. Pasha Insurance is the clear
market leader, benefiting from its expertise, brand awareness, and
diversified business mix. With Azerbaijani manat 148 million (AZN)
(approximately $87 million) of gross written premium (GWP) in 2019,
Pasha Insurance has a 36% share of the P/C insurance market in
Azerbaijan, which we expect it will maintain over the next two
years. While the local P/C insurance market is generally
concentrated on motor insurance (about 35% of overall gross
premiums in 2019), Pasha Insurance's business is well diversified
across various business lines. The major lines are medical (40% of
GPW in 2019), motor (20% of GPW in 2019) and property (18% of GPW
in 2019). We expect these three business lines will account close
to 80% of the business mix in 2020-2021. We note that a significant
part of the company's premiums come from one medical contract
representing about 28% of the company's total GPW in 2019.

"We project the company will remain well capitalized in the next
two years, with capital adequacy (based on our model) above 'A'
benchmark level. In our base-case assumptions, we expect premiums
will increase annually by about 5% on average during this period,
in line with our expectations for the Azerbaijani P/C insurance
market. We expect, however, that premium growth in 2020 may be
constrained due to overall pressure on Azerbaijan's economic growth
prospects as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and oil price
volatility. We expect market turbulence, in particular securities
market volatility, could negatively affect investment income. As a
result, we also incorporate potential negative revaluation of the
company's bonds in our forecasts, although this could be somewhat
offset by foreign exchange revaluation of the dollar-denominated
instruments.

"We believe Pasha Insurance will maintain favorable profitability
metrics in the next two years. In our projections, the company's
combined (loss and expense) ratio will likely remain below 85% due
to strict underwriting standards, the company's pricing power as
the market leader, and its operating efficiency. We note that the
company's portfolio does not include protection against pandemic
risks, or tourist operator liability risk. We also expect Pasha
Insurance's dividends won't exceed 50% of net income in the next
two years, in line with the company's plans. We believe that
revaluation of noninvestment grade bonds, while material, will be
absorbed by Pahsa Insurance's capital buffers.

"Our assessment of Pasha Insurance's financial risk profile is
constrained by the average credit quality of its investments, which
we consider in 'BB' range. This is relatively low compared with
that of global peers. We note, however, that this is mostly
explained by our sovereign rating on Azerbaijan (BB+/Stable/B) and
limitations imposed on insurance companies by the local regulator
(investments in foreign instruments are not recognized when
calculating the regulatory capital adequacy ratio). We also note
that the company's investment portfolio is highly concentrated in
the local banking sector.

"We consider that Pasha Insurance benefits from an experienced
management team and established risk management practices relative
to peers.

"We assess that Pasha Insurance has sufficient liquidity to meet
its obligations, with a liquidity ratio of 112% at the end of 2019
as per our calculations. We note, however, that this level of
liquidity is lower than that of rated peers in the commonwealth of
independent states region. We believe that Pasha has a sufficient
liquidity cushion and will follow strict liquidity management in
order to meet its obligations. However, if the company's liquidity
position deteriorates, we would review its liquidity score.

"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Pasha Insurance
will maintain a strong operating performance in the next 12 months,
supported by both favorable underwriting and investment results.
This will allow the insurer to maintain its solid capitalization
level and safeguard its leading positions in the P/C insurance
segment in Azerbaijan."

S&P could consider a negative rating action in 12 months if:

-- S&P took a negative action on the Azerbaijan sovereign rating,
which could put pressure on Pasha Insurance's investment credit
quality and underwriting results in view of tightening operating
conditions;

-- The company's capitalization came under pressure as a result of
higher-than-expected insurance portfolio growth,
higher-than-expected dividends, or underwriting and investment
losses that S&P does not anticipate in our base case;

-- Pasha Insurance's investment strategy became more aggressive,
with the weighted average credit quality of investments moving
toward 'B' level; or

-- If S&P saw significant pressure on the company's liquidity
position.

S&P views a positive rating action as remote in the next 12 months,
taking into account the concentration of the company's insurance
and investment activities in Azerbaijan and the sovereign long-term
rating of 'BB+'.




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F I N L A N D
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FERRATUM OYJ: Fitch Cuts LT IDR to 'B+', Outlook Negative
---------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ferratum Oyj's Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating and the Long-Term Rating of senior unsecured notes
issued by Ferratum Capital Germany GmbH from 'BB-' to 'B+'/'RR4' on
increasing coronavirus-related risks. The Outlook on Ferratum's
Long-Term IDR is Negative.

Ferratum is an online-focused consumer finance company operating in
the high-cost credit sector with an international footprint in over
20 countries, including a strong presence in its domestic market of
Finland. The company is listed on the prime standard segment of the
Frankfurt Stock Exchange and also incorporates a Malta-domiciled
bank (Ferratum Bank p.l.c.) under its wider franchise.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

IDR

The downgrade primarily reflects coronavirus-related pressures on
Ferratum's business and financial profile. In particular,
Ferratum's revenue generation, notably interest income, will in
Fitch's view in the short term come under pressure from suppressed
consumer confidence and government-initiated customer relief
measures (such as payment holidays). Given its focus on sub-prime
or near-sub-prime unsecured lenders, Fitch also expects distressed
borrower credit profiles to lead to higher loan impairment charges
negatively affecting operating profitability. It also sees
increased downside risk for Ferratum's Company Profile assessment,
particularly pertaining to its ability to attract business flows
and sustain franchise strength across its numerous markets in the
current environment. As a result, Fitch's assessment of Ferratum's
Company Profile (which was previously identified as an important
factor for the rating outcome) is no longer commensurate with
Ferratum's previous 'BB-' rating.

The Negative Outlook reflects Fitch's view that while short-term
rating pressures are now limited at Ferratum's current rating
level, downside risk in the medium-term persists, in particular if
the deterioration of Ferratum's revenue base and asset quality
materially exceeds Fitch's base case.

Under Fitch's base case, Fitch has assumed a sharp reduction in new
loan volumes both as a result of weakening consumer appetite and
because of more challenging conditions in Ferratum's funding
markets. Fitch has also assumed a moderate increase in impairment
charges (in absolute terms) and a significant reduction in both
staff and other operating expenses reflecting cost reduction
measures which are to some extent supported by government furlough
measures. Based on these assumptions, Fitch sees increased downside
risk to Ferratum's profitability and capitalization, in particular
if lockdown measures extend beyond 2Q20.

Ferratum's leverage was high even before the onset of the
coronavirus pandemic (gross debt/tangible equity: 5.5x as at
year-end 2019) and the coronavirus-related dislocation exacerbates
leverage downside risks in Fitch's view. In its recent rating
review of Ferratum earlier this year, Fitch cited a gross
debt-to-tangible equity ratio of 6x as a downward rating trigger
for leverage. While gross leverage at FYE19 remained within the
stipulated range (at 5.5x), Fitch anticipates gross leverage to
increase notably over the near term (to around 8x based on Fitch'
base case assumptions described above), with earnings pressure
constraining internal capital generation. Ferratum's ability to
de-leverage after the crisis will depend on its ability to grow the
balance sheet profitably in a post-stress environment, which Fitch
considers challenging in the current environment without easing
current prudent underwriting standards.

However, Ferratum has adopted a number of corrective measures to
limit the business impact of the coronavirus challenges. These
measures include a tightening in underwriting standards (aimed at
curbing loan impairments), as well as a focused improvement of its
deposit offering in its banking subsidiary (targeted at enhancing
deposit stickiness and funding stability).

Ferratum's liquidity profile is in Fitch's view adequate for its
rating level and benefits from a EUR155 million cash buffer (at
end-2019) and no near-term upcoming wholesale funding maturities.
Ferratum has a largely unsecured funding profile (which Fitch views
positively), mainly comprising bank deposits (EUR242 million at
end-2019) and senior unsecured bonds (EUR180 million at end March
2020). While the bonds have long-term maturities (three to four
years), online deposits are mostly shorter-term. In its view, these
are less reliable than traditional retail deposits (particularly in
periods of market stress). However, the company has some discretion
with rate setting, which supports liquidity management.

SENIOR UNSECURED NOTES

Ferratum Capital Germany's senior unsecured bond is rated in line
with Ferratum's Long-Term IDR because Ferratum acts as the
guarantor of the bond issuance. The rating alignment reflects
Fitch's expectation of average recovery prospects of the senior
unsecured bond, reflected in the assigned 'RR4' Recovery Rating.
The bond constitutes a direct and unsecured senior obligation of
Ferratum Capital Germany and ranks pari passu with all present and
future senior unsecured obligations of the issuer.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

KEY RATING SENSITIVITIES

IDR

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative
rating action/downgrade:

  - A significant increase in leverage measured as debt to tangible
equity above 8x;

  - A weaker franchise, arising from a sustained loss in
revenue/operational losses, an adverse reputational event, or a
significant tightening of regulatory requirements in key markets
resulting in a significant loss of business and/or notable margin
pressure could result in a downgrade;

  - Increased risk appetite leading to higher credit losses as the
product mix evolves toward larger and longer-term origination (such
as SME loans), notably if combined with looser provisioning
standards, pressuring profitability and ultimately eroding
Ferratum's capital base;

  - Signs of funding weakness in the form of a loss of retail
deposits at Ferratum Bank or a loss of wholesale funding market
access leading to higher refinancing risk;

  - Any sustained adverse operational developments at the Ferratum
Bank level (either of a regulatory nature or with regard to
customer confidence), thereby impacting on the company's ability to
effectively leverage its banking subsidiary as a market-facing
financial services provider;

  - The growth of Ferratum Bank in comparison with the rest of the
group leading to increased structural subordination risk for
wholesale creditors outside the bank.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive
rating action/upgrade:

  - Materially lower leverage on a sustained basis, if combined
with an enhanced and more resilient franchise;

  - A strengthening in the franchise through improved scale and
pricing power without a marked increase in risk appetite.

SENIOR UNSECURED NOTES

The senior unsecured notes' rating is primarily sensitive to
changes in Ferratum's Long-Term IDR. Changes to Fitch's assessment
of recovery prospects for senior unsecured debt in default (e.g.
the introduction of debt obligations ranking ahead of the senior
unsecured debt notes) could also result in the senior unsecured
notes' rating being notched below the IDR.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of Financial Institutions issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years.
The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Ferratum has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Exposure to Social
Impacts as a result of its exposure to the high-cost consumer
lending sector and the increasing levels of regulatory scrutiny,
including tightening of interest rate caps. The evolving regulatory
environment has had direct impact on Ferratum's business model
including the pricing strategy, product mix, and targeted customer
base.



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F R A N C E
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COOKIES ACQUISITION: S&P Assigns 'B' Long-Term ICR, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned France-based biscuit manufacturer
Cookies Acquisition S.A.S. (Biscuit International) its 'B'
long-term issuer credit rating.

S&P said, "We are also assigning our 'B' issue rating to Biscuit
International's EUR490 million term loan B (TLB) and our 'CCC+'
issue rating to the company's EUR110 million second-lien
instrument; the respective recovery ratings are '3', indicating our
estimate of 60% recovery prospects, and '6', indicating our
estimate of 0%.

"Biscuit International is constrained by its limited size and
relatively narrow product offering within a challenging industry,
where we see low single-digit-growth and a relatively small scale
of operations.   The company is in only the sweet biscuit product
category within the package food industry, leading us to consider
its product offering limited. The company derives the vast majority
of its volume from the private label segment, a market expected to
experience low-single-digit growth. In 2019, the group should
report EBITDA of close to EUR80 million (pro forma the Aviator
acquisition), which we consider limited compared with branded
players in this product category. However, its ability to provide a
wide array of sweet products--ranging from cakes to breakfast
biscuits--with leading position in niche products such as FEW
(fresh egg waffles), stroopwafels, Sticks in Europe, cookies, and
sandwich biscuits supports our view on the business."

An inability to cope with difficult price negotiations with
retailers could result in a temporary margin squeeze.   S&P said,
"In our view, this is a tough market because retailers' business
model has been under pressure in recent years due to the growing
popularity of other distribution channels such as online or
convenience stores. However, Biscuit International should
outperform the sweet biscuit market average over the forecast
period thanks to its long-lasting relationship with customers and
its efficient sourcing strategy. Even if retailers usually pressure
their suppliers, creating unbalanced relationship, we consider that
France's EGalim law should partially offset this trend. The sweet
biscuits market is expected to see slightly higher volumes in 2020
and 2021." However, if Biscuit International cannot withstand
potential pressure from retailers in geographies, there could be
temporary pressure on margins. Biscuit International's historically
resilient EBITDA margin shows that the company has been able to
manage these challenges.

A flexible pan-European manufacturing footprint, reliability, and
quality of product offering translate into resilient margins.
Biscuit International operates 20 manufacturing sites across
Europe, enabling it to effectively meet clients' needs in terms of
volume and quality in each of the group's geographies. This
commitment to quality and reliability on its products offering
enabled Biscuit International to develop a good rapport with its
customers. Also, the company has been able to propose product
innovations--a key strength to secure long-term relationships with
retailers. In fact, its white label offer increasingly focuses on
quality in addition to price. Biscuit International intends to
increase its positioning toward organic or free from product
offering (8% of sales in 2018) to capture additional growth on
these fast-growing segments. In our view, the company has
historically managed inflation in raw material prices without
significant negative impact on the EBITDA margin. This supports
Biscuit International's business and its overall credit quality.

The company's longstanding relationships with key customers should
advance its cross-selling strategy.   Biscuit International has
proven, longstanding relationships with key European retailers,
such as Lidl, Aldi, Carrefour, and Leclerc, with some partnerships
spanning more than two decades. This translates into the company
providing the vast majority of volume sold by these retailers on
certain product categories like FEW and stroopwafels, and S&P
believes this protects it from potential volume shifts from these
clients. The stickiness of these relationships should enable the
group to further strengthen its cross-selling strategy, providing
opportunities for volume growth.

Biscuit International's ambitious operational improvement plan to
further boost operating performance in the coming year and to
further integrate Aviator could squeeze free operating cash flow in
the next two years.   The company's new shareholders, Platinum,
will support the launch of an ambitious operational improvement
plan and target synergies to bolster EBITDA over the next few
years. S&P said, "We are more cautious on the timing of these
synergies, and have incorporated more conservative assumptions
within our base-case scenario. However, we recognize that some
synergies following the Aviator acquisition, mainly those on
sourcing, functional headcounts, and revenues initiatives, seem
achievable in reasonable time. This leads us to apply a milder
haircut versus all measures linked to footprint reorganization.
With these initiatives and their costs, free operating cash flow
(FOCF) will still be positive in 2020 but constrained in 2021, when
we expect it to be somewhat negative due to specific investment to
expand capacity dedicated to FEW cluster in the Netherlands or
optimize some of the existing facilities."

Post-closing the leveraged buyout transaction, Biscuit
International will have a highly leveraged capital structure with
S&P Global Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA reaching 7.2x.   Cookie
Acquisition SAS was acquired by private equity fund Platinum
Equity, which will finance this through a mix of bank debt (split
between a EUR490 million of TLB with a seven-year maturity and a
EUR110 million second-lien instrument with an eight-year maturity)
and pure equity. Biscuit International's adjusted debt to EBITDA
will reach 7.2x. S&P considers this level of leverage aggressive
but still commensurate with our 'B' rating level.

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak.  S&P said,
"Some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak about
midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic
and credit implications. We believe the measures adopted to contain
COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession. As the
situation evolves, we will update our assumptions and estimates
accordingly."

S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that Biscuit
International's operating performance should remain resilient and
that its S&P Global Ratings-adjusted margin to stand at 15.5%-16.5%
over the next 12-18 months.

"In our view, Biscuit International's EBITDA margin is supported by
a winning strategy executed historically by leveraging
cross–selling. This is on the back of the company's close ties
with European retailers with whom it shares sound relationships for
more than two decades. Also, the increase in scale of operation
following the Aviator acquisition will enable the group to
capitalize on sourcing opportunities where its raw materials
represent 60% of its cost structure. We anticipate that the company
will generate positive FOCF of about EUR15 million in 2020, which
will come under pressure in 2021 and therefore slightly negative as
the company launches its ambitious capex program to extract
synergies. Under our base-case scenario, we expect that the company
will maintain its EBITDA interest coverage at close to 3x over the
next 12-18 months.

"We could downgrade the company if it pursues a more aggressive
debt-financed acquisition strategy than we currently anticipate,
resulting in a material deterioration in its leverage metrics that
hamper the expected deleveraging path."

A negative rating action could also occur if Biscuit
International's sustained EBITDA interest coverage falls below 2x
or if it fails to generate positive FOCF (excluding growth capex)
due to under performance on its operations. This could result from
significant deviation versus our base-case scenario linked to
fierce competition with branded companies, and lower penetration of
private label for or from an unanticipated sharp increase in raw
material costs and inability to pass through cost increases for a
prolonged period.

S&P could take a positive rating action if Biscuit International's
revenue and EBITDA base increase significantly higher than its
current assumptions, such that debt to EBITDA would fall below 5x
and EBITDA interest coverage clearly supports a higher rating. This
would also hinge on robust FOCF reaching at least 10% of total
debt. A higher rating would also depend on a firm commitment from
the owner to sustain such a low level of leverage. This could occur
from higher penetration of private label product category within
the company's core geographies mainly France and a very successful
execution of operational improvement plan.

NOVARTEX SAS: Moody's Affirms Caa1 CFR, Alters Outlook to Negative
------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has changed the outlook of French apparel
retailer Novartex S.A.S., to negative from stable. Concurrently,
Moody's has affirmed the company's Caa1 corporate family rating and
its probability of default rating at Caa1-PD.

"Its rating action reflects its expectations that the spread of the
coronavirus will negatively impact Novartex's results and financial
profile at least in the first half of 2020" said Guillaume Leglise,
Moody's lead analyst on Novartex and Assistant Vice President.
"Operational disruptions from store closures will lead to cash burn
and strain liquidity", adds Mr Leglise.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The apparel retail
sector is one of the sectors most significantly affected by the
shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment. More
specifically, Novartex's exposure to store-based discretionary
spending, have left it vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in
these unprecedented operating conditions.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. Its action reflects the impact on Novartex of the
breadth and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in
credit quality it has triggered.

Its rating action reflects Moody's expectation that the nationwide
lockdown imposed by many European governments, including in France,
will materially and negatively affect revenues with a consequent
impact on EBITDA and cash flow generation. Moody's believes that
Novartex is particularly vulnerable considering its large store
base (over 1,500 stores at end-August 2019) mostly in France, and
its limited online channel capabilities.

Most governments in Europe, including France, have announced a
package of measures to support corporates, which will limit the
negative effects during the lockdown period. Despite these
measures, Moody's expects that Novartex will emerge with weaker
credit metrics and liquidity post the crisis. Moody's expects that
there is likely to be fierce competition and pricing pressure once
stores reopen and weaker demand for discretionary products, notably
apparel products, in the medium-term.

The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty regarding the losses,
demand and supply chain impact of the coronavirus outbreak, but
also the risk that demand and consumer sentiment may not recover to
levels prior to the crisis.

LIQUIDITY

Moody's considers Novartex's liquidity to be adequate. The company
had around EUR134 million of cash on balance sheet as of the end of
October 2019. This large cash balance offsets to some extent the
absence of a committed revolving credit facility. Novartex has no
funded debt. However, Moody's believes the company will face
operational headwinds which will weigh on its liquidity. Prior to
the coronavirus outbreak, Moody's already expected the company's
free cash flow to be negative for fiscal 2020 (year ending 31
August 2020), although this was partly due to the company's planned
capital spending investments in store refurbishments (EUR50 million
budgeted in fiscal 2020). Moody's understands that the company is
taking steps to conserve cash in the months ahead including
postponements to capital spending and reduced stock purchasing.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The ratings are unlikely to be upgraded in the short term until the
coronavirus outbreak has been brought under control, store closure
restrictions are lifted, and it is evident that consumer sentiment
has not materially affected demand for Novartex's products.

Over time, Moody's could consider an upgrade of the ratings if the
company manages to turnaround its business operations. Positive
rating pressure would require signs of gradual recovery in net
sales growth, profitability improving sustainably with Moody's
adjusted EBIT margin in the mid-single digit (in percentage terms),
positive free cash flow generation, and the maintenance of an
adequate liquidity profile.

The ratings could come under downwards pressure if (1) there are
signs of operational deterioration, such as a further decline from
already weak earnings and margins, (2) free cash flow deteriorates
such that Moody's expects the company to have insufficient
liquidity to meet its basic cash needs and creditor payments.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Retail Industry
published in May 2018.

COMPANY PROFILE

Novartex S.A.S. is the holding company of Vivarte, a France-based
footwear and apparel retailer focusing on city center boutiques and
out-of-town stores through its 3 remaining banners (La Halle,
Minelli and Caroll) and around 1,500 stores. In the fiscal year
ended 31 August 2019 (fiscal 2019), the company generated revenue
of EUR1.2 billion and reported EBITDA of EUR40.4 million. The
company offers a range of apparel and footwear products, mostly
ready-to-wear products for women (around 75% of revenue) and, to a
lesser extent, apparel products for men and children (around 25% of
revenue).



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I R E L A N D
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ARDAGH PACKAGING: Fitch Rates $500MM Sr. Sec. Notes BB+
-------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned a rating of 'BB+'/'RR1'/100% to USD500
million senior secured guaranteed notes due 2025 co-issued by
Ardagh Packaging Finance plc and Ardagh Holding USA Inc. The notes
are guaranteed by Ardagh Group S.A. (B+/Stable).

The bonds are rated three notches above Ardagh Group S.A.'s 'B+'
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) reflecting Fitch's expectation of
superior recovery. The newly issued bonds rank pari-passu with and
share the same security package as the issuers existing senior
secured bonds.

The proceeds of the bonds will be used to refinance recently drawn
credit facility (USD300 million); the remainder will be kept on
balance sheet as cash. The combined addition of USD500million in
new liquidity will serve as a near-term cash buffer.

Ardagh's rating is based on its leading positions in the metal and
glass packaging segment in Europe, North America and Brazil. Fitch
views these markets as mature and competitive, but offering very
stable demand and with virtually no cyclicality. There is some
concentration to large beverage customers that increased after the
disposal of the food & specialty metal packaging business but this
is mitigated by strong and long-term relationships. Ardagh's
operations generate stable earnings and growing cash flow over the
rating horizon.

The rating is constrained by high leverage and whereas Fitch sees
good potential to deleverage given Ardagh's strong cash flow
generation, the agency expects the company will prioritize further
investments in its operations. As such, Fitch expects leverage to
remain well above its main peers.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

High Leverage, Predictable Cash Flow: Ardagh remains highly
leveraged despite the repayment of USD2.4 billion debt using
proceeds of the disposal of parts of metal packaging to Trivium.
Fitch expects pro-forma FFO adjusted leverage to be around 7.5x for
2020, which is higher than many rated peers. Fitch includes the
USD1.13 billion and EUR1.0 billion toggle notes in Ardagh's
consolidated debt when calculating Ardagh Group's leverage and
interest cover. Fitch expects some deleveraging, with FFO adjusted
leverage likely to fall to 6x by 2022, mainly due to gradually
improving EBITDA and FFO.

Capital Structure Complex: Fitch views Ardagh's financial policy as
aggressive compared with other global packaging companies, and
expects the company to continue to return a higher dividend to its
shareholders than its peers. Ardagh's debt and corporate structure
is more complex than most corporate issuers. Despite this, Ardagh
has demonstrated good access to the debt markets with substantial
refinancing of both group and holding company debt during 2019,
supported by strong capital markets conditions to extend maturities
and lower the cost of debt. Ardagh's maturity profile is
substantially more spread than most rating peers, reducing
refinancing risk.

Near-Term Coronavirus Implications: Fitch expects Ardagh to be
moderately affected by the coronavirus pandemic, primarily due to
weaker demand for glass bottles consumed at restaurants and bars,
offset by potentially stronger household demand. Current financial
market risk during the crisis is offset by Ardagh's satisfactory
liquidity that it now estimates at USD1.1billion of cash including
this issue and further supported by a USD663 million asset based
revolving credit facility (expected as undrawn) at the end of March
2020.

Continued Organic Growth: Fitch expects Ardagh's revenues to grow
organically at between 1%-2% per year, based on new contracts, with
capex driven by the investment in plants to service new contracts.
Further acquisitions would likely generate higher growth. Demand
for packaging is underpinned by population growth, urbanization and
higher living standards. There is some risk of replacement between
various types of packaging made from plastics, metal, glass, carton
and composites and all materials can be subject to pressure from
rising raw material prices.

Beverage Sector Resilient: Following the Trivium disposal, Ardagh
will have more exposure to the beverage sector, representing 85% of
revenue. Fitch views the beverage market as highly resilient to
economic cycles as the consumption of beer, drinks, carbonated
soft-drinks or even wines and spirits show limited cyclicality. The
beverage market in Europe and North America is mature, albeit with
little over-capacity, which is supportive.

Ardagh's smaller operations in Brazil (6% of sales) offer higher
growth as the market develops. There has been some transition in
the materials used in packaging, with metal cans replacing glass
for conventional beers, primarily in the U.S.

Strong Business Profile: Fitch views the packaging industry as
being stable in terms of the predictability of margin and FCF.
Fitch believes that Ardagh's business risk could support an
investment-grade rating with significantly lower leverage. Fitch
views Ardagh's business risk as strong, supported by its scale with
revenue of about USD6.7 billion for the full year 2019, strong
market positions in the U.S. and EMEA, and strategically located
packaging facilities, typically located close to customers to
reduce transportation costs.

Historically Acquisitive: Ardagh has grown quickly since 2007
through continued debt funded acquisitions. Fitch has not factored
further acquisitions into its own forecasts. However, Fitch
believes that higher than expected cash build up could be deployed
to further acquisitions, which would be EBITDA accretive. Fitch
expects Ardagh to maintain a high level of growth capex during 2020
and 2021, reflecting investment in new contracts, which would also
demonstrate a continued improvement in the business risk profile.

Ratings Uplift for Senior Secured Lenders: Fitch expects that
Ardagh will achieve better recoveries on a going concern basis in a
hypothetical default situation. Based on its assumptions of post
recovery EBITDA of approximately USD890 million, using a valuation
multiple of 5.5x, a discount of 10% for administrative claims and
further reduction of the enterprise value to take into account
receivables factoring of USD473 million, Fitch expects superior
recoveries for the super senior and senior secured lenders to
Ardagh Group S.A. and its subsidiaries in a hypothetical default
scenario. This allows Fitch to rate the senior secured debt three
notches above the IDR. Fitch expects the senior unsecured loans
issued by subsidiaries of Ardagh Group S.A. to have below average
recovery prospects, with ratings one notch lower than the IDR at
'B'. Fitch views the toggle notes issued by ARD Finance S.A. as
deeply subordinated, with no prospect's recovery, reflected in a
rating two notches lower at 'B-'.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Ardagh is similar to its main packaging peers (Ball Corporation,
Berry and Crown) in terms of diversification and strong market
positions in its geographic markets. However, it is smaller at
close to half the size in turnover but with EBITDA and FFO margins
in line with these peers. Fitch believes that Ardagh's business
profile is similar to that of Amcor (BBB/Stable) and Stora Enso
(BBB-/Stable), with strong EBITDA margins and good levels of FCF.
Ardagh's capital structure is substantially more leveraged than its
peers, resulting in a much lower IDR. Compared with higher rated
packaging related companies Irel/IFCO (B+/Stable) Ardagh is
substantially larger but with weaker EBITDA and FFO margins.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - Moderate sales growth for continuing Ardagh (excluding Trivium
assets) of 1% in FY20-21, thereafter 2% with contribution from
recent years growth capex;

  - EBITDA margin forecast to grow by around 1% from FY20 to FY23
driven by cost savings, better product mix of glass packaging and
growth capex;

  - Cash taxes of -10% of EBIT throughout the rating horizon;

  - Common dividends of USD11 million paid to equity stakeholders;

  - The dividend related to pay interest on the HoldCo PIK Toggle
notes as interest;

  - Working capital outflow at around USD40 million per year;

  - Capex of around 7%-8% of sales per year including maintenance
capex of USD350 million and growth capex of USD260 million-USD280
million in FY20-21.

RECOVERY ANALYSIS

As Ardagh's IDR is in the 'B' rating category, Fitch undertakes a
bespoke recovery analysis in line with its criteria. Ardagh's
strong market positions and strategically located packaging
facilities, in Fitch's view, support a going concern approach
should the company enter a distress situation.

Valuation and Discount: Fitch has applied an EBITDA discount of 15%
on 2019 EBITDA resulting in a post restructuring EBITDA of USD890
million, which the agency finds adequately represents Ardagh's
recovery prospects. Fitch applies a 5.5x distressed EV/EBITDA
multiple, which is in line with similarly rated peers.

Outcome: After deducting 10% for administrative claims, Ardagh's
senior secured notes are rated 'BB+'/'RR1'/100%, its senior
unsecured notes 'B'/'RR5'/23% and the senior secured notes issued
by ARD Finance S.A. 'B-'/'RR6'/0%.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action

  - Positive FCF margins towards mid-single digit of sales on a
sustained basis;

  - FFO fixed-charge cover sustainably greater than 3.0x;

  - Clear deleveraging commitment and disciplined financial policy
having FFO-adjusted gross leverage sustainably below 5.5x.

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action

  - EBITDA margin deteriorating to below 15%;

  - Neutral FCF, thereby reducing financial flexibility;

  - FFO fixed-charge cover less than 2.2x;

  - FFO adjusted gross leverage including PIK greater than 7.5x on
a sustained basis.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years.
The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Fitch views Ardagh's liquidity as satisfactory supported by USD614
million of cash and cash equivalents as of Dec. 31, 2019, together
with access to a USD663 million global asset based RCF (all
undrawn) at Dec. 31, 2019. Fitch restricts USD300 million cash to
reflect intra year working capital swings. Ardagh's refinancing
activity of recent years pushed most of its maturities to 2026 and
beyond, reducing repayment risk. The lower interest rates on its
debt helps support cash flow generation.

Fitch expects positive free cash flow over the rating horizon
driven by (i) modest EBITDA margin expansion, (ii) minimal working
capital outflows and (iii) lower interest expenses due to the
recent refinancing. Although counterbalanced by high capex spending
in FY20-21, Fitch expects Ardagh to generate consistent FCF at
around 3% of sales by FY23.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of 3 - ESG
issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on
the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are
being managed.

INVESCO EURO IV: Fitch Gives B-sf Rating to Class F Notes
---------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has assigned Invesco Euro CLO IV DAC final ratings.

Invesco Euro CLO IV DAC       

  - Class A LT; AAAsf

  - Class B-1 LT; AAsf

  - Class B-2 LT; AAsf

  - Class C LT; Asf

  - Class D LT; BBB-sf

  - Class E LT; BB-sf

  - Class F LT; B-sf

  - Subordinated Notes LT; NRsf

  - Class X LT; AAAsf

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

Invesco Euro CLO IV Designated Activity Company is a cash
flow-collateralized loan obligation (CLO). Net proceeds from the
notes are being used to purchase a EUR400 million portfolio of
mainly European leveraged loans and bonds. The transaction has a
4.5-year reinvestment period and a weighted average life of 8.5
years. The portfolio assets are actively managed by Invesco
European RR L.P.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

'B' Portfolio Credit Quality

Fitch assesses the average credit quality of obligors at the 'B'
category. The Fitch-calculated weighted average rating factor
(WARF) of the underlying portfolio is 32.1, i.e. below the
indicative maximum covenant of 32.3 for the final ratings.

High Recovery Expectations

At least 90% of the portfolio comprises senior secured obligations.
Recovery prospects for these assets are typically more favorable
than for second-lien, unsecured and mezzanine assets. The
Fitch-calculated weighted average recovery rate (WARR) of the
identified portfolio is 67.3%, above the indicative minimum
covenant of 64.8% for the final ratings.

Diversified Asset Portfolio

The transaction includes two Fitch test matrices corresponding to
the two top-10 obligors' concentration limits of 15% and 26.5%,
respectively. The manager can interpolate within and between two
matrices. The transaction also includes limits on maximum industry
exposure based on Fitch's industry definitions. The maximum
exposure to the three-largest Fitch-defined industries in the
portfolio is covenanted at 40%. These covenants ensure that the
asset portfolio will not be exposed to excessive obligor
concentration.

Portfolio Management

The transaction features a 4.5-year reinvestment period and
includes reinvestment criteria similar to other European
transactions. Fitch's analysis is based on a stressed-case
portfolio with the aim of testing the robustness of the transaction
structure against its covenants and portfolio guidelines.

Cash Flow Analysis

Fitch used a customized proprietary cash flow model to replicate
the principal and interest waterfalls, and the various structural
features of the transaction, as well as to assess their
effectiveness, including the structural protection provided by
excess spread diverted through the par value and interest coverage
tests.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

This section provides insight into the model-implied sensitivities
the transaction faces when one assumption is modified, while
holding others equal. The modelling process uses the modification
of these variables to reflect asset performance in upside- and
downside- environments. The results below should only be to
multiple dynamic risk factors. It should not be used as an
indicator of possible future performance.

Rating Upgrade Sensitivities

A 25% default multiplier applied to the portfolio's mean default
rate, and with this subtracted from all rating default levels, and
a 25% increase of the recovery rate at all rating recovery levels,
would lead to an upgrade of up to three notches for the class E
notes and up to five notches for the remaining rated notes, except
considered as one potential outcome, as the transaction is exposed
for the class A notes for which the rating is already at the
highest rating scale at 'AAA' and cannot be upgraded further.

The transaction features a reinvestment period and the portfolio is
actively managed. At closing, Fitch uses a standardized stress
portfolio (the "Fitch's Stress Portfolio") that is customized to
the specific portfolio limits for the transaction as specified in
the transaction documents. Even if the actual portfolio shows
losses and lower defaults (at all rating levels) than Fitch's
Stressed Portfolio assumed at closing, an upgrade of the notes
during the reinvestment period is unlikely, given the portfolio's
credit quality may still deteriorate, not only by natural credit
migration, but also by reinvestments. After the end of the
reinvestment period, upgrades may occur if portfolio credit quality
and deal performance are better-than- initially expected, leading
to higher credit enhancement (CE) and excess spread available to
cover for losses on the remaining portfolio.

Rating Downgrade Sensitivities

Fitch has analyzed the warehouse portfolio, which includes EUR346
million of assets. Fitch has identified the following sectors with
the highest exposure to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic:
transportation and distribution (airline and shipping-related);
gaming and leisure and entertainment; retail, lodging and
restaurants; metal and mining; energy, oil and gas; and aerospace
and defense (airline-related). The total ramped-up portfolio
exposure to these sectors is 12.8%.

Fitch has run a scenario that envisages negative rating migration
by one notch for all assets in these sectors, plus any assets that
are on Negative Outlook. The resulting default rate is still below
the breakeven default rate for the stress portfolio analysis,
meaning that rating migration of this magnitude would not affect
the rating of the CLO.

A 125% default multiplier applied to the portfolio's mean default
rate, and with the increase added to all rating default levels, and
a 25% decrease of the recovery rate at all rating recovery levels,
would lead to a downgrade of up to four notches for the classes D
and E and up to two notches for the remaining rated notes.

Downgrades may occur if the build-up of CE following amortization
does not compensate for a larger loss expectation than initially
assumed due to unexpected high levels of default and portfolio
deterioration. As the disruptions to supply and demand due to the
pandemic for other vulnerable sectors become apparent, loan ratings
in such sectors would also come under pressure. Fitch will update
the sensitivity scenarios in line with the view of its Leveraged
Finance team.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of structured finance transactions have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of seven notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of seven notches over three
years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit
ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best-
and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10

Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.

DATA ADEQUACY

The majority of the underlying assets or risk-presenting entities
have ratings or credit opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally
Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations and/or European
Securities and Markets Authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch
has relied on the practices of the relevant groups within Fitch
and/or other rating agencies to assess the asset portfolio
information.

Overall, Fitch's assessment of the asset pool information relied
upon for the agency's rating analysis according to its applicable
rating methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.



=========
I T A L Y
=========

CREDITO VALTELLINESE: DBRS Confirms BB (high) LT Issuer Rating
--------------------------------------------------------------
DBRS Ratings GmbH confirmed the ratings of Credito Valtellinese SpA
(Creval or the Bank) including the Long-Term Issuer Rating of BB
(high) and the Short-Term Issuer Rating of R-3. The trend on all
ratings remains stable. The Bank's Deposit ratings were confirmed
at BBB (low)/R-2 (middle), one notch above the Intrinsic Assessment
(IA), reflecting the legal framework in place in Italy which has
full depositor preference in bank insolvency and resolution
proceedings. DBRS Morningstar has also maintained the Bank's IA at
BB (high) and support assessment at SA3.

KEY RATING CONSIDERATIONS

The wide and growing scale of economic and market disruptions
resulting from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic will put
additional pressure on the Bank's profitability and balance sheet.
The deteriorating operating environment in Italy will likely affect
revenues, asset quality and cost of risk. The impact will likely
emerge in the coming quarters, whilst the implications for the
medium to long-term will depend on the evolution of the outbreak.
Downward rating pressure would intensify should the crisis be
prolonged.

We will continue to monitor the performance of the Bank, its
contingency plans and all measures to support the franchise and
customer base, including debt moratoriums. At the same time, we
will assess the impact of unprecedented support measures announced
by the Italian government, as well as several other international
authorities and central banks. Supporting the banks and the economy
is a critical factor to withstand the impact of this crisis.

The confirmation of Creval's Long-Term Issuer Rating at BBB (low))
and the Stable Trend reflect the Bank's progress in reducing its
large stock of non-performing exposures mostly through sales and
securitizations, including two recent disposals in February and
March 2020. Asset quality levels now compare relatively well to
those of domestic peers, whilst still remaining above the European
peer average. However, we believe that the current situation could
delay the Bank's further planned NPE reduction, with Creval
planning to reach a gross NPL ratio of around 6% by 2023. We also
expect the coronavirus pandemic to increase pressure on the Bank's
risk profile, albeit this could be mitigated by the Italian
government and the European authorities' support measures.

In addition, the rating action incorporates the Bank's ample
capital position, and DBRS Morningstar notes that the Bank has
substantial cushions over regulatory requirements. These, combined
with the flexibility provided by the regulator on capital buffers,
should help the Bank mitigate the expected rise in risk-weighted
assets (RWAs) driven by a deterioration in the loan book. The
ratings are supported by the Bank's small national position but the
solid franchise in the region of Lombardy, especially in the
province of Sondrio, as well as in Sicily. However, Lombardy
remains one of the most affected regions in Italy by the global
coronavirus pandemic, which in our view could pressure the Bank's
franchise. The ratings are underpinned by the Bank's solid funding
and liquidity position, with Creval diversifying its funding mix
through a recent return to the unsecured wholesale market. Whilst
we do not see short-term downside risk on funding given the ECB's
assistance, we believe that smaller institutions like Creval could
experience difficulties in accessing wholesale funding markets.
This is however mitigated by the fact that the Bank has relatively
little funding needs from the wholesale markets.

The ratings take into account Creval's modest profitability, mainly
due to revenue pressure, the high cost of credit which was impacted
in 2019 by extraordinary LLPs related to the NPE disposal plan, and
the still high, albeit declining, operating costs. Although the new
management team had initiatives to improve profitability, the
coronavirus pandemic creates additional risk for the Bank's
revenues and is expected to lead to weaker lending growth, lower
fees and commissions as well as higher loan loss provisions.

RATING DRIVERS

Given the current situation and the implications from the global
pandemic, an upgrade is unlikely in the short-term. An upgrade of
the Long-Term ratings would require demonstration of sustained
profitability, as well as a further improvement in asset quality.

The ratings could be downgraded should the Bank's profitability
materially decline. A downgrade could also occur if much of the
progress in asset quality made by the bank were to be reversed or
if there was a significant weakening of capital as a result of the
coronavirus pandemic.

Notes: All figures are in EUR unless otherwise noted.

EVOCA SPA: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the corporate family
rating of EVOCA S.p.A. to B3 from B2, its probability of default
rating to B3-PD from B2-PD, as well as the rating of its senior
secured bond to B3 from B2. The outlook remains stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

RATIONALE FOR A DOWNGRADE

Its downgrade reflects the rating agency's expectation that EVOCA
will not be able to deliver the previously expected increase in
EBITDA in the next 12-18 month that would improve its Moody's
adjusted gross debt/EBITDA below 6.0x, which would be commensurate
with a B2 CFR. Based on preliminary results the rating agency
calculates that EVOCA's adjusted gross leverage was around 6.4x in
2019, which already positioned the company weakly in B2 rating.

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The manufacturing
sector has been one of the sectors most significantly affected by
the shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment.
More specifically, the weaknesses in EVOCA's credit profile,
including its exposure to Italy, have left it vulnerable to shifts
in market sentiment in these unprecedented operating conditions and
EVOCA remains vulnerable to the outbreak continuing to spread.
Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. Its action reflects the impact on EVOCA of the breadth
and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit
quality it has triggered.

As a result of the coronavirus pandemics on March 10, EVOCA decided
to suspend production in its Italian facilities located in the
Parma and Bergamo region, representing roughly half of its entire
production capacity. Following the Italian government's ministerial
decree on March 22 suspending all non-essential production, the
Company suspended the resumption of activities in these facilities
originally scheduled for March 23 and extended the suspension to
its other Italian facilities.

In addition, Moody's also sees a risk that the pandemics will lead
to a recession in a number of countries, in which EVOCA operates.
In such difficult environment, some of EVOCA's customers may decide
to postpone purchases of new machines, which would hit its revenues
and EBITDA at least through 2020, even though the degree of the
deterioration is difficult to quantify at this point.

To partially offset these challenges Moody's understands that the
company will benefit from the ordinary public scheme for
integration of the salary ("Cassa Integrazione Guadagni
Ordinaria"), enabling it to have some of its Italian employees'
salaries (or at least a part of them) paid by the Italian National
Social Security Institute for up to nine weeks. Furthermore, it has
identified a number of cost reduction initiatives to preserve cash
flow during this period and can also resort to a postponement of
some capital spending to protect its cash flows, if needed.

Evoca's B3 ratings also factor in its private equity ownership,
which entails weaker reporting standards than public companies and
a financial policy that has been tolerant of high leverage. Since
2015, the company's leverage, as adjusted by Moody's, has
oscillated around the agency's 6.0x downgrade trigger for a B2
rating, being most of the time weaker than that, even during the
periods of a relatively benign operating environment. The
aggressive financial policy is also exemplified by an issuance of
PIK notes outside of restricted group of EVOCA in October 2019,
proceeds of which have been applied to minimize the exposure of the
existing sponsor.

RATIONALE FOR A STABLE OUTLOOK

The stable outlook reflects EVOCA's adequate liquidity position,
enabling the company to weather a period of a weaker operating
performance. After the last October's bond upsizing EVOCA ended up
the financial year 2019 with a fairly sizeable cash of around EUR94
million, which was well above the levels it had historically
carried on its balance sheet. In addition, the company had an
access to EUR80 million revolving facility (undrawn at end of
2019), with a spring-in covenant, under which the agency expects
the company to maintain an ample capacity. EVOCA does not face any
material debt maturities until 2026.

The stable outlook also reflects EVOCA's solid business model,
which has improved over the past five year and which helps offset
its high leverage. EVOCA's business is characterized by high
profitability, a fairly high proportion of variable costs and
limited capital spending up to 4% of sales, which have enabled it
to operate with a positive free cash flow generation over the past
six years. In addition, the refinancing of the capital structure
the company undertook in October last year has reduced its annual
interest bill by roughly EUR10 million, which will benefit EVOCA's
cash flow generation at times when its operating cash flows are
likely to be under pressure. At this point Moody's does not expect
that the company will turn into meaningfully negative free cash
flows generation in 2020.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS:

EVOCA's ratings could be downgraded if the company's adequate
liquidity positioned deteriorated, for instance due to material
negative free cash flow generation or if EVOCA's gross debt/EBITDA,
as adjusted by Moody's, exceeds 7.0x for a prolonged period.

An upgrade would require EVOCA to be able to sustain its strong
profitability, with its Moody's-adjusted EBITA margin in high-teens
and a healthy FCF generation, while improving its Moody's-adjusted
gross debt/EBITDA sustainably below 6.0x.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Manufacturing
Methodology published in March 2020.

COMPANY PROFILE

Headquartered in Bergamo, Italy, EVOCA is a leading manufacturer of
professional coffee machines. As of December 2019, EVOCA operated
nine manufacturing sites and had around 2,000 employees. The
company reported revenue of EUR468 million for the twelve-month
period to June 2019.

INT'L DESIGN: Moody's Affirms B2 CFR, Alters Outlook to Negative
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed the B2 corporate family
rating and B2-PD probability of default rating of Italian high-end
lighting and furniture group International Design Group S.p.A.
Concurrently, Moody's has affirmed the B2 ratings on the aggregate
EUR720 million senior secured fixed and floating rate notes due
2025. The outlook has been changed to negative from stable.

"We have changed the outlook on IDG to negative to reflect the
impact that the spread and subsequent macroeconomic consequences of
the coronavirus are having on the company's business. Social
distancing measures in a number of countries have led to a supply
and demand shock for IDG, negatively impacting the company's top
line, profitability and cash generation in 2020," says Paolo
Leschiutta, a Moody's Senior Vice President and lead analyst for
IDG. "However, we have affirmed the rating because IDG's liquidity
at this stage is adequate, and Moody's expects a recovery in
operating performance in 2021," added Mr. Leschiutta.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The spread of the coronavirus across Europe and the related health
and safety social considerations are likely to result in severe
contraction in consumer spending on discretionary items such as
those produced by IDG. In addition, it is affecting supply chains
and disrupting production in factories across Europe. IDG's
factories in Italy are currently closed in light of the lockdown
imposed in the country, its Spanish factory might soon be closed,
while its production facility in Denmark remains operational.
Moody's sees IDG's exposure to potential contraction in demand as
severe in light of the reliance on spending on non-essential luxury
items. Moody's expects the company to be able to partially adapt to
volatility in demand owing to its flexible costs structure that
results from the outsourcing of a large part of its manufacturing,
particularly in its lights division, royalties to designers linked
only to actual revenues booked and low capital expenditure
requirements.

A prolonged and widespread demand shock combined with production
difficulties at some of the company's main facilities, along with
deterioration in the macroeconomic environment will result in
significant deterioration in the company's cash generation in 2020.
In particular, Moody's notes that a number of important fairs,
including the Italian Design week, on which the company's typically
showcases its new products and collects new orders, have been
cancelled or postponed because of the current outbreak.

Moody's expects the company's financial leverage, measured as
Moody's adjusted gross debt to EBITDA, to deteriorate significantly
in 2020, exceeding 9.0x at year end. This assumes partial recovery
in demand in the second half of the year, albeit at a level well
below prior expectations, resulting in an overall significant
contraction in top line and cash generation this year.

The rating reflects Moody's expectation that IDG's key credit
metrics in 2021 might recover supported by the release in pent up
demand and a general recovery in macroeconomic conditions.

However, visibility in terms of future operating performance is
very low, and while Moody's expects a recovery once the social
distancing measures implemented in many countries are lifted, the
longer the current situation lasts, the higher the impact on IDG's
credit metrics and liquidity.

Moody's derives comfort form the company's adequate liquidity
profile which should allow the company to weather the next six to
twelve months of weak cash generation. Liquidity is supported by
approximately EUR160 million of available cash, after the company
has fully drawn under its EUR100 million revolving credit facility.
The facility contains a springing financial covenant defined as
super senior net debt/EBITDA of 2.5x (tested when more than 40% of
the RCF is drawn), which, if not met, would stop any incremental
drawing under the facility. The companies have no debt maturities
until 2025.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE (ESG) CONSIDERATIONS

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The consumer
durable sector is one of the sectors affected by the shock given
its sensitivity to discretionary spending and consumer sentiment.
More specifically, the weaknesses in IDG's credit profile,
including its exposure to multiple affected countries have left it
vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in these unprecedented
operating conditions and the company remains vulnerable to the
outbreak continuing to spread.

In terms of corporate governance considerations, the company is
tightly controlled by funds managed by Investindustrial and the
Carlyle Group which, as is often the case in highly levered,
private equity sponsored deals, have a high tolerance for leverage
and governance is comparatively less transparent. The company is
undergoing a merger process of three separate entities and still
has to fully demonstrate its ability to implement a common
strategy.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

International Design Group S.p.A. is the issuer of the EUR720
million senior secured notes and the main borrower of the EUR100
million multicurrency super senior RCF, also available at the main
operating companies within the group.

The RCF and the senior secured notes benefit from guarantees from
the three main operating companies (representing approximately 80%
of group's EBITDA) and are secured on a first ranking basis. The
notes rank behind the super senior RCF as this benefit from
priority call on the security package in virtue of the
Intercreditor Agreement which states that proceeds from the
enforcement of the security will be applied to repay indebtedness
outstanding under the RCF in priority to the notes. The security
package comprises (1) the shares of the issuer, guarantors and
material subsidiaries; (2) certain material structural intercompany
receivables; and (3) certain material bank accounts. Moody's views
the security package as weak and the size of the revolver is not
enough to cause a notching differential on the notes.

RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty on the recovery in
the company's operating performance and credit metrics in 2021.
Albeit the liquidity profile is adequate, the negative outlook also
reflects the potential deterioration in the company's liquidity
should the current situation with a number of countries
implementing social distancing measures lasts longer than currently
anticipated.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

Given the negative outlook, an upgrade is currently unlikely.
However, success in weathering the current difficult operating
environment together with demonstrating the ability to implement a
common strategy deriving full revenues and cost synergies, together
with maintaining an operating margin in the high teens in
percentage terms could lead to a rating upgrade. In addition, to
consider a positive rating action, the group's financial leverage,
measured as Moody's adjusted debt to EBITDA, needs to reduce
towards 4.5x and its Moody's adjusted EBIT interest cover needs to
remain above 2.5x.

Sustained deterioration in the company's operating margins towards
the low teens in percentage terms leading to a financial leverage
above 5.5x also on a sustainable basis could result in a rating
downgrade. The rating could come under negative pressure also in
case of a weakening in the company's liquidity profile or in case
of a more aggressive financial policy signaled by aggressive
acquisitions or shareholders distribution in excess of free cash
flow generation.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: International Design Group S.p.A.

Affirmations:

Probability of Default Rating, Affirmed B2-PD

Corporate Family Rating, Affirmed B2

Backed Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, Affirmed B2

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed to Negative from Stable

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Consumer
Durables Industry published in April 2017.

COMPANY PROFILE

International Design Group S.p.A. is formed by the combination of
three high-end design companies: Flos, a leading Italian high-end
lights manufacturer, B&B Italia, a leading Italian high-end
furniture company, and Louis Poulsen, a leading Danish high-end
lighting company. The combined group generated EUR551 million of
revenues and EUR127 million of EBITDA as of September 2019 on a LTM
basis (or EUR137 million including IFRS 16 adjustment). The group
generates approximately 65% of revenues in Europe, including 15% in
Italy, with the rest spread between North America and Asia. The
group is owned by Investindustrial and the Carlyle Group, together
with the management.

MONTE DEI PASCHI: DBRS Confirms B (high) Long Term Issuer Rating
----------------------------------------------------------------
DBRS Ratings GmbH confirmed the ratings of Banca Monte dei Paschi
di Siena SpA (BMPS or the Bank), including the Long-Term Issuer
Rating of B (high) and the Short-Term Issuer rating of R-4. The
trend on the Group's long-term ratings has been revised to Negative
from Stable. DBRS Morningstar also confirmed the Long-Term and
Short-Term Critical Obligations Ratings (COR) at BBB (low) / R-2
(middle) and the Trend remains Stable. This reflects DBRS
Morningstar's expectation that, in the event of a resolution of the
Bank, certain liabilities (such as payment and collection services,
obligations under a covered bond program, payment and collection
services, etc.) have a greater probability of avoiding being
bailed-in and are likely to be included in a going-concern entity.
The Bank's Deposit ratings were confirmed at BB (low)/R-4, one
notch above the IA, reflecting the legal framework in place in
Italy which has full depositor preference in bank insolvency and
resolution proceedings. DBRS Morningstar has also maintained the
Intrinsic Assessment (IA) of the Bank is B (high) and the Support
Assessment is SA3.

KEY RATING CONSIDERATIONS

The change of the Trend to Negative reflects our view that the wide
and growing scale of economic and market disruptions resulting from
the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic will increase the pressure on
the Bank, especially its profitability, cost of risk and asset
quality. The impact will likely emerge in the coming quarters,
whilst the implications for the medium to long-term will depend on
the evolution of the outbreak. Downward rating pressure would
intensify should the crisis be prolonged.

DBRS Morningstar will monitor the performance of the Bank in the
coming quarters, including its measures to support the customer
base, and the implementation of the debt moratoriums. At the same
time, we will assess the impact of the unprecedented support
measures announced by the Italian government, as well as several
other international authorities and central banks.

The confirmation of BMPS's ratings takes into account the progress
the Bank has made in improving its asset quality by reducing its
stock of Non-Performing Exposures (NPEs). However, the stock of
NPEs remains high and above those of European peers and we expect a
deterioration of the Bank's risk profile as results of the COVID-19
pandemic, albeit mitigated by the Italian government and the
European authorities' support measures. In addition, the current
situation could bring delays to the Bank's planned NPE reduction,
which in our view is key to a successful exit from the Italian
government ownership.

BMPS's ratings are underpinned by its position as Italy's
fourth-largest bank by total assets and significant market share in
its home region of Tuscany. However, the Bank is currently
undertaking a restructuring plan for 2017-2021, following the
approval of the Italian State's precautionary recapitalization of
the Bank in 2017. The Bank is currently still owned by the Italian
Ministry of Finance (MEF) with a 68% stake. We view the current
situation as adding new challenges and higher execution risk to the
exit plan, which the MEF was expected to submit in 2020.

In addition, the ratings take into account the Bank's weak, albeit
improving, underlying profitability, which reflects modest
revenues, which will face additional pressure as a result of the
COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown of the country? Whilst we
previously observed some improvement in the Bank's access to
wholesale funding markets, we believe this could come under
pressure as a result of the crisis, albeit mitigated by the support
provided by the ECB. The ratings also incorporate the Bank's stable
liquidity position and adequate capital buffers.

RATING DRIVERS

Any upgrade is unlikely in the short-term given the Negative trend.
However, the trend on the Long-Term ratings could revert to Stable
if the Bank were able to demonstrate limited earnings and asset
quality impact from the global coronavirus pandemic.

A downgrade would likely be driven by a significant deterioration
of the Bank's profitability or capital. A downgrade could also
occur should the Bank experience severe delays in reducing its
non-performing exposures further than the already achieved targets
in the restructuring plan, as a result of the global coronavirus
pandemic.

Notes: All figures are in EUR unless otherwise noted.



===================
L U X E M B O U R G
===================

ALGECO INVESTMENTS: Fitch Places 'B' LT IDR on Watch Negative
-------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has placed Algeco Investments 2 S.a.r.l's Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating of 'B' and senior secured notes issued by
Algeco Global Finance Plc of 'B+' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR3'
and senior unsecured notes issued by Algeco Global Finance 2 plc of
'CCC+' with a Recovery Rating of 'RR6' on Rating Watch Negative
(RWN) on increasing coronavirus-related risks.

These actions are being taken in conjunction with a review of three
European equipment rental companies conducted today by Fitch.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

IDR

Unless noted, the key rating drivers for Algeco are those outlined
in its Rating Action Commentary published in July 2019 (Fitch
Affirms Algeco's Rating at 'B'; Negative Outlook).

The Rating Watch Negative on Algeco's's Long-Term IDR reflects
Fitch's view that the company's rental revenues will come under
pressure over the short-term amid wide-ranging lockdown measures
adopted in key operating markets, affecting a broad range of rental
sectors (most notably construction and infrastructure). More
specifically, Fitch believes the economic and financial market
fallout resulting from the coronavirus pandemic presents downside
risks for Algeco's company profile assessment. This potentially
weakens its asset quality and earnings profile relative to the last
annual review while prevailing leverage constraints are further
augmented.

The majority of Algeco's markets are currently subject to
comprehensive lock-down measures instituted by the respective
authorities (most relevant for Algeco in France), which implies a
significant decline in demand for its service offering over the
short term. While most of its offices across Europe continue to
operate and some markets, notably Germany, are less affected by
lockdown measures, rental demand for its modular space equipment
has notably declined in recent weeks as non-essential services and
activities (including construction) have been significantly
curtailed. Increasing rental demand from core government activities
and related to social distancing measures will in its view be
insufficient to mitigate the negative impact on core rental
revenues.

Under Fitch's base case, Fitch has assumed a sharp reduction in
rental revenue for a period of three months across all markets
(ranging between minus 40% and minus 80% compared to annualized 3Q
2019 rental revenue depending on the country) and a linear recovery
back to 2019 rental revenue levels in the six months thereafter.
Fitch has also assumed a 50% stress on sales of modular but have
also factored in a 15% reduction in fleet-related depreciation and
a 10% reduction in operating expenses reflecting management actions
taken in response to the market contraction.

Given the company's comparatively strong representation in France
and the UK (which both have been notably impacted the
coronavirus-related shutdown), EBITDA is subject to significant
pressure on the downside (a contraction of over 40%). In turn, this
augment leverage constraints, with the gross debt/ adjusted EBITDA
ratio increasing to 11.9x at end 2020 from 6.9x in 3Q 2019. On a
net debt basis, cash flow leverage would equate to around 10x in
2020 (from 5.8x in 2019). In the current environment leverage
mitigation derived from currently sizeable available cash reserves
(EUR379 million at end-3Q19, including EUR104 million held outside
the restricted group) is limited, as the reserves could be used (at
least partially) to fund any arising temporary cash flow
shortfalls. This underpins its current leverage assessment, which
is scored 'b-'/Negative Outlook.

A considerable proportion of Algeco's capital expenditure (capex)
is discretionary, which can be scaled back or turned off entirely
in a stress scenario, freeing up cash flow and aiding the
preservation of additional liquidity. However, a concern is
Algeco's high interest expenses (around EUR100 million in 9M19),
with the EBITDA/ interest coverage ratio having historically
tracked at low levels (below 2x which corresponds with an implied
benchmark score for Funding and Liquidity of b or below). Under the
current environment of severe market stress, such an elevated level
of debt service costs constrains the firm's financial flexibility.
Debt service capacity is supported by available unrestricted cash
on balance sheet (EUR275 million at end-3Q19), but this cash is
sensitive to the market interruption resulting from
coronavirus-related challenges.

Aside from coronavirus-related earnings pressures, Algeco's credit
profile recognizes the company's established position in the
modular rental space (with good representation in key markets-
particularly in Europe) and the benefit from longer average
contract lengths (around 12 months) compared with traditional
equipment rental companies. However, business model risk prevails
amid its exposure to cyclicality in the industries the firm
services. The financial profile balances good profitability against
an elevated leverage profile and relatively weak debt service
coverage metrics.

In line with other equipment rental businesses, funding comprises a
mix of an asset-based senior secured revolving credit facility (an
ABL facility) and senior secured and unsecured notes. The high
weighting of secured funding implies some dependence on wholesale
market confidence for renewal, but Algeco's funding profile is
long-term (first major upcoming debt maturity in 2023).

SENIOR SECURED AND UNSECURED NOTES

Algeco's asset-based lending (ABL) facility has a first lien on
assets under certain jurisdictions (Australia, New Zealand and the
UK) and a second lien on the assets in the rest of the world. Fitch
assumes the assets under ABL jurisdiction will be able to cover the
EUR61 million outstanding ABL amount at end-3Q19 and therefore
views the instrument as super senior to the senior secured notes.
Recoveries for senior secured noteholders stand at 60%, resulting
in a long-term rating of 'B+'/'RR3', one notch above Algeco's
Long-Term IDR. Recoveries for senior unsecured notes are zero
(RR6), resulting in a rating two notches below Algeco's Long-Term
IDR, at CCC+. Both instrument ratings are on RWN in line with
Algeco's Long-Term IDR.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

IDR

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

Fitch would downgrade Algeco's Long-Term IDR within the next three
to six months:

  - If following the likely sharp reduction in 2Q20 (April to
June), the projected improvement in EBITDA is further delayed or
recovers less quickly than currently anticipated by Fitch;

  - If cash flow leverage remains at a notably elevated level
relatively to pre-crisis levels and/or a significant narrowing of
the differential in gross and cash flow leverage to the upside
(arising in particular from the erosion of cash reserves as
potential operational cash flow shortages are covered);

  - Failure to improve interest coverage ratios over the short
term.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

Fitch could affirm Algeco's Long-Term IDR at its current level if
management actions, notably reductions in capex and operating
expenses, the short-term mitigation in revenue pressure and
commitment to contain leverage and improve debt serviceability are
demonstrated. Cost reductions could potentially be supported by
government furlough and other income support measures, notably in
key European markets such as France, Germany and the UK.

SECOND PRIORITY SENIOR DEBT

The ratings of the notes are sensitive to a change in Algeco's
Long-Term IDR. Changes leading to a material reassessment of
potential recovery prospects, for instance, change in equipment
valuation or competitive environment could trigger a change in the
rating.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of Financial Institutions issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years.
The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.



=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
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BOELS TOPHOLDING: Fitch Places BB- LT IDR on Watch Negative
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Fitch Ratings has placed Boels Topholding B.V.'s Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating and senior secured long-term debt rating on Rating
Watch Negative. The rating actions reflect the adverse effects of
the COVID-19 pandemic on the equipment rental sector and the
resulting increased probability of Boels triggering downgrade
sensitivities.

These actions are being taken in conjunction with a review of three
European equipment rental companies conducted by Fitch.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

IDR

Boels is a Netherlands-headquartered equipment rental company
operating in multiple European countries. Earlier this year it
completed a debt funded acquisition of Cramo plc (Cramo), extending
its geographic footprint in particular in Scandinavia, and raising
its leverage.

The RWN on Boels' Long-Term IDR reflects Fitch's view that Boels'
rental revenues will come under pressure in the short-term due to
the lockdown measures in place to varying degrees across most
European countries. These affect business activity and associated
rental equipment demand in many sectors, notably construction. Of
the three countries currently subject to most stringent
restrictions, Boels is not active in France or Spain, and has only
a limited presence in Italy. Nonetheless, Fitch expects rental
demand in Boels' markets to be materially lower in the short-term
even if work sites in many countries remain at least partially
open, and view this as a near-term risk to Boels' ratings. In
particular, Fitch believes the economic and financial market
fallout from the pandemic creates downside risks to its assessment
of Boels' earnings and leverage relative to when it published its
ratings in February 2020.

In view of the cash flow-driven nature of Boels' business, Fitch
uses debt/EBITDA-based metrics in assessing leverage, and
conservatively deducts depreciation of rental equipment from EBITDA
in arriving at 'adjusted EBITDA'. The acquisition of Cramo raised
adjusted EBITDA gross leverage from around 4.7x in 2018 to around
8.4x under previous forecasts for 2020. Expectation of deleveraging
from a short-term post-acquisition peak was factored into Boels'
rating at the 'BB-' level, and in the past Boels' business has
shown sound deleveraging potential. However, a severe or prolonged
reduction in EBITDA amid the pandemic would make this considerably
harder to achieve.

Fitch's base case for the sector assumes a sharp reduction in
rental revenue for a period of three months across all markets
(ranging between minus 40% and minus 60% compared to 2019 rental
revenue depending on the country) and a linear recovery back to
2019 rental revenue levels in the six months thereafter. It also
assumes no net gains from equipment sales and no ancillary
non-rental revenue in 2020 but a 15% reduction in fleet-related
depreciation and a 10% reduction in operating expenses due to
management actions.

Boels' capital expenditure (capex) is to a degree discretionary,
enabling it to reduce investment at the onset of a downturn and
thereby conserve liquidity at a time of reduced cash inflows. Over
a longer period, capex is needed in order to maintain a productive
fleet, but Boels entered the downturn with a fairly young
inventory, reducing that requirement in the near term. Fitch also
views positively Boels' chief executive's significant experience in
the equipment rental sector, in particular in having led the
business through the last global economic crisis.

As part of its acquisition of Cramo, Boels refinanced all of both
companies' debt via a EUR1.6 billion Term Loan B, supplemented by a
EUR200 million revolving credit facility (RCF) from the same
providers. The seven-year tenor of the Term Loan B (and 6.5 years
of the RCF) remove near-term refinancing risk, subject to
maintaining compliance with a 6.5x net debt to EBITDA covenant,
tested quarterly from September 2020.

SENIOR SECURED DEBT

The Term Loan B and RCF are classified as secured, in keeping with
other Term Loan B transactions. However, in the absence of direct
security over Boels' operating assets, Fitch rates the facilities
in line with Boels' Long-Term IDR (as it would an unsecured
obligation), indicating average recovery prospects.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

IDR

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

  - The business demonstrating a level of reduction in EBITDA which
in Fitch's view signals that it is unlikely to be able to achieve
meaningful deleveraging in the near term;

  - The covenant of a maximum 6.5x net debt to unadjusted EBITDA in
Boels' Term Loan B documentation appearing likely to come under
pressure;

  - Unexpected challenges arising in relation to the integration of
Cramo.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

  - Significant outperformance of Fitch's base case, or adequate
mitigation of expected revenue pressure via cost savings, to an
extent that meaningful near-term deleveraging still appears
achievable.

SENIOR SECURED DEBT

The debt ratings are primarily sensitive to any changes in Boels'
Long-Term IDR. Should Boels introduce a debt tranche secured on
operating assets ranking above existing instruments (or a
subordinated tranche below them), Fitch could notch the debt
ratings down (or up) from the Long-Term IDR, on the basis of weaker
(or stronger) recovery prospects.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of Financial Institutions issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years.
The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

Boels Topholding B.V.

  - LT IDR; BB-; On Watch Negative

  - Senior secured; LT BB-; On Watch Negative

EAGLE INTERMEDIATE: Moody's Cuts CFR, Sr. Sec. Notes Rating to Caa2
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Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Eagle Intermediate Global
Holding B.V.'s (d/b/a The LYCRA Company) Corporate Family Rating to
Caa2 from B3. At the same time, Moody's has downgraded The LYCRA
Company's senior secured notes to Caa2 from B3, Probability of
Default rating to Caa2-PD from B3-PD. The rating outlook has been
changed to stable from negative.

Ratings actions:

Issuer: Eagle Intermediate Global Holding B.V.

Corporate Family Rating, Downgraded to Caa2 from B3

Probability of Default Rating, Downgraded to Caa2-PD from B3-PD

Gtd. Senior Secured 1st Lien USD Notes due 2025, Downgraded to Caa2
(LGD4) from B3 (LGD4) (Co-issuer: Ruyi US Finance LLC)

Gtd. Senior Secured 1st Lien EUR Notes due 2023, Downgraded to Caa2
(LGD4) from B3 (LGD4) (Co-issuer: Ruyi US Finance LLC)

Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating, Remains SGL-4

Outlook, Changed to Stable from Negative

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The synthetic
fiber sector has been one of the sectors affected by the shock
given its sensitivity to textile and apparel manufacturing. More
specifically, the weaknesses in The LYCRA Company's credit profile,
including its high debt leverage and exposure to Asia and Europe,
have left it vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in these
unprecedented operating conditions and the company remains
vulnerable to the outbreak continuing to spread. Moody's regards
the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its ESG framework,
given the substantial implications for public health and safety.
Its action reflects the impact on The LYCRA Company of the breadth
and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit
quality it has triggered.

The weak global economy, reduced operating rates at textile and
apparel manufacturing facilities amid the virus outbreak, low
generic spandex prices and a strong dollar continue to weigh on The
LYCRA Company's earnings, more than offsetting the benefits of
increased diaper and hygiene product consumer stockpiling resulting
from the virus, lower raw material costs, business restructuring
and contribution from the acquired Taiwan assets. Moody's expects
its adjusted debt/EBITDA to rise to about nine times and its
interest coverage below two times in 2020, a further deterioration
from the already depressed levels in 2019. It is estimated that the
company sales fell by 8.6% and its EBITDA declined to $125 million
in 2019 from $197 million in 2018, due to lower Chinese demand,
lower generic spandex prices, the delay in acquisition closing by
Shandong Ruyi and a strong US dollar.

The company's weak liquidity profile (SGL-4) reflects its limited
free cash flow, the maturity of the promissory notes in July 2020
and constraints to access more than $25 million in revolving credit
facility. Moody's expects the company's large cash balance of about
$90 million at the end of 2019 to be sufficient for its daily
business operation over the next several quarters. However,
earnings erosion will result in very limited free cash flow this
year. There is limited external liquidity available at the moment,
as the company wouldn't be able to comply with the springing
financial covenant—consolidated net leverage not exceeding 5.75x,
if it were to draw more than $25 million from its $100 million
revolver which in turn would trigger the covenant test. The $57
million promissory notes (including accrued interests) due to a key
shareholder in July 2020 poses an imminent credit risk, although an
extension of the maturity still appears likely given the
shareholder's ownership in The LYCRA Company.

The rating downgrade has also factored in the deteriorating credit
quality of its parent company -- Shandong Ruyi Technology Group
Co., Ltd. (Caa3 negative), which owns 53.4% of The LYCRA company.
Moody's downgraded Shandong Ruyi's rating to Caa3 with a negative
outlook on March 24, 2020, given the company's tight liquidity and
refinancing risk. Ruyi's lingering refinancing risk has a negative
impact on The LYCRA Company's execution of its business plan and
increases the uncertainty of The LYCRA Company's ownership, which
Moody's regards as a governance risk under its ESG framework.

The LYCRA Company's credit profile is supported by its leading
market position in the spandex industry with well-known brands and
its long-term relations with textile mills and garment
manufacturers. Its premium LYCRA fiber brand spandex, including
LYCRA HyFit fiber for diapers, account for about three quarters of
total sales. The company's continuous R&D efforts, ability to
launch new products and strategic plan to shift product mix to
higher-margin spandex will support its margins against generic
competition and cost inflations.

The stable outlook reflects the company's efforts to reduce its
costs, improve its earnings, as well as the potential extension of
the promissory notes maturity to alleviate the refinancing risk.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The rating could be downgraded, if the company's earnings continue
to deteriorate and management fails to improve liquidity. In
addition, a further deterioration in Shandong Ruyi's credit profile
could negatively impact The LYCRA Company's rating.

A rating upgrade would require earnings recovery, free cash flow
generation and debt/EBITDA below 7.5x on a sustained basis. An
upgrade would also depend on a track record of prudent financial
policy, as well as an improvement in the credit rating of its
parent.

Eagle Intermediate Global Holding B.V. (The LYCRA Company) is a
leading producer of man-made fibers, including spandex, polyester
and nylon, which are used by many apparel brands. It owns
well-known brands such as LYCRA fiber, ELASPAN fiber, COOLMAX and
THERMOLITE, each of which provides garments with desired functional
performance. The company operates eight wholly owned manufacturing
and processing facilities in North America, Europe, Asia and South
America. In 2019, it generated about $1 billion revenues. Shandong
Ruyi together with other investors completed the acquisition the
LYCRA Company from INVISTA Equities, LLC. (Ba1 stable) in January
2019.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Chemical
Industry published in March 2019.

IGNITION TOPCO: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative & Affirms 'B' ICR
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S&P Global Ratings revised the outlook on IGM's parent, Ignition
Topco BV, to negative from stable, and affirmed the 'B' long-term
issuer credit rating.

S&P said, "We expect reduced demand in parts of IGM Resins' (IGM's)
main markets due to the extraordinary impact of the coronavirus
pandemic on economic activity. The global spread of COVID-19, the
economic effects of social-distancing measures to contain the
spread, and plummeting consumer and business confidence have dealt
a heavy blow to global economic growth prospects in the near term.
We believe that the measures adopted to contain the spread of
COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession. More
specifically, in the eurozone and the U.S., where IGM generates
about 70% of its total sales, we now expect the economies to
contract by 2.0% and 1.3%, respectively, this year." Asia, where
IGM generates about 30% of its sales, will also face much lower GDP
growth of less than 2.5% in 2020.

Nearly 50% of IGM's business is in the graphic arts, with a large
part of that dedicated to food and pharmaceutical packaging, which
should be less vulnerable to an economic downturn. S&P said,
"However, the remaining business is in exposed cyclical end
markets, including industrial coatings (mainly wood coatings used
for flooring, furniture, doors, and panels) and electronics and
adhesives, where we expect lower demand and sales volumes for IGM
in 2020. We expect a swift rebound in 2021, given IGM's leading
global position in the high-growth, niche market of ultraviolet
(UV) curing materials; its planned price reductions to regain
market share; and its expansion project in China to accommodate
strong demand for high-value photo-initiator (PI) products."

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak. Some
government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak about
midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic
and credit implications. As the situation evolves, S&P will update
its assumptions and estimates accordingly.

Price competition is putting additional pressure on IGM's sales and
earnings. In 2019, especially in the second half of that year, IGM
saw adverse effects from its competitors infringing the patents on
its high-margin PI BAPO products and selling growing levels of
these products on the global market at lower prices. In addition,
IGM saw continuous pricing pressure on its more commodity-like PI
products. As a result, the company's total sales volumes declined
by 12% in 2019. Despite higher average prices, revenue declined by
about 3% in 2019 to EUR260 million and S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
EBITDA was slightly down to EUR55 million. In response to the high
competitive pressure, IGM is planning to reduce the prices of
certain of its PI products to regain volume in 2020. This, combined
with weakening market demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic, could
lead to a double-digit decline in sales and EBITDA this year.

S&P said, "We expect IGM's leverage to weaken this year, but
recover swiftly in 2021, with FOCF remaining positive. In our base
case, we now expect IGM's adjusted debt to EBITDA to weaken to
above 7.0x this year from about 5.9x in 2019 (based on preliminary
results). IGM has fully drawn down its EUR50 million revolving
credit facility (RCF) as a precaution, and these funds remain on
the balance sheet. However, this results in temporarily higher
leverage of above 8x, as we do not net cash from debt in
calculating IGM's leverage, since we assess its business risk
profile as weak and it is owned by a financial sponsor. Although we
expect IGM's leverage to recover swiftly to below 6x by the end of
2021, driven by a rebound in sales volumes, the rating headroom is
minimal compared to the 5x-6x range we view as commensurate with
the current rating.

"Despite weakening market demand and earnings in a recessionary
environment, we expect that IGM will be able to maintain positive
FOCF generation, as it has the flexibility to postpone part of its
growth capital expenditure (capex) under challenging market
conditions and to reduce working capital if sales decrease. The
majority of IGM's capex (EUR18 million-EUR28 million) is on the
development of a green-field plant in China.

"The negative outlook reflects the possibility that we could lower
the rating if IGM failed to generate positive FOCF and the
weakening in market demand and decline in EBITDA this year were
more severe than our base case.

"We could lower the rating if IGM's FOCF turned negative, its
liquidity weakened significantly, or if it could not swiftly
deleverage to below 6x adjusted debt to EBITDA by 2021. This could
occur as a result of a prolonged weakening of IGM's EBITDA due to a
severe downturn across its main markets, a loss of key customers
due to price competition, or significant unexpected operational
issues.

"We could revise the outlook to stable if we observed a swift
recovery in IGM's performance and continuous positive FOCF
generation in the next 12 months. A stable outlook would require
IGM to maintain at least adequate liquidity and adequate headroom
under the springing covenant on its RCF. We would also expect IGM's
financial policy, especially on shareholder distributions,
acquisitions, and capex, to remain supportive of the current
rating."




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P O R T U G A L
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[*] Fitch Takes Action on 5 Portuguese Banks on Coronavirus Threat
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Fitch Ratings has taken rating actions on five Portuguese banks due
to the disruption caused by the coronavirus outbreak in Portugal.
The main actions are as follows:

Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings affirmed; Outlooks Revised to
Negative: Banco BPI S.A. (BBB), Santander Totta, SGPS, S.A. and
Banco Santander Totta S.A. (BBB+), Banco Comercial Portugues, S.A.
(BB), Caixa Geral de Depositos, S.A. (BB+).

Long-Term IDR placed on Rating Watch Negative (RWN): Caixa
Economica Montepio Geral, caixa economica bancaria SA (B+/RWN).

Fitch expects a significant deterioration in eurozone GDP,
including for the Portuguese economy. The ultimate negative impact
of the outbreak on the Portuguese GDP is uncertain, as it depends
on the duration of the lockdown and its long-term effects. Fitch
views significant downside risks to this driven by the fact that
Portugal has a small and very open economy that depends extensively
on exports and tourism. The high public- and private-sector
indebtedness adds to the vulnerability of the Portuguese economy to
external shocks.

To reflect this, Fitch has revised the outlook of the Portuguese
operating environment score to negative from stable. Fitch could
lower the 'bbb-' score if there are signs that private-sector
indebtedness sharply rises beyond sustainable levels or if the
domestic economy sees longer-term damage from the crisis, in
particular in terms of borrower credit quality or banks' risk
appetite.

The pandemic spread to Portugal later than other European countries
and it has been less affected. However, due to early containment
measures, the Portuguese economy has entered into a lockdown with
the tourism, hospitality, transportation and construction sectors,
which are likely to be more vulnerable to a downturn. Portuguese
banks have material exposures to these sectors, ranging from 5% to
15% of loan books at the biggest banks.

Support measures announced by the Portuguese government and
European authorities should support the banks' asset quality in the
short term and, to a lesser extent, revenue generation. Government
support is moderate in relation to GDP (about 4% of GDP so far) but
Fitch expects this to be extended. Approved measures total more
than EUR9 billion, including EUR3 billion of state guarantees on
new loans to support the economy and the most affected corporate
sectors, an amount that could be increased.

The government introduced a sector-wide debt moratorium suspending
interest and principal repayment for at least six months for
residential mortgage loans and loans to companies facing
difficulties as a result of the crisis. Although Fitch expects some
regulatory flexibility on problem asset recognitions, this may only
delay losses and will not offer much protection in an adverse
scenario of a durable stress extending in 2021. Fitch expects the
banking sector will face earnings pressure from the payment
moratoria offered to clients facing financial difficulties. The
agency will also be attentive as to whether these measures will
impact borrowers' long-term debt service capabilities.

Fitch views the Portuguese banking sector as more resilient than at
the start of the previous crisis in the country in 2011-2014.
However, a longer-than-expected crisis would threaten the sector's
viability.

Banco Comercial Portugues, S.A.

  - LT IDR; BB Affirmed

  - ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - Viability; bb Affirmed

  - Support; 5 Affirmed

  - Support Floor; NF Affirmed

  - Subordinated; LT B+ Downgrade

  - Junior subordinated; LT B- Affirmed

  - Senior preferred; LT BB Affirmed

  - Senior non-preferred; LT BB- Downgrade

  - Long-term deposits; LT BB+ New Rating   

  - Senior preferred; ST B Affirmed

  - Short-term deposits; ST B New Rating   

Banco Santander Totta SA

  - LT IDR; BBB+ Affirmed

  - ST IDR; F2 Affirmed

  - Viability; bbb- Affirmed

  - Support; 2 Affirmed

  - Senior preferred; LT BBB+ Affirmed

  - Long-term deposits; LT BBB+ New Rating   

  - Senior preferred; ST F2 Affirmed

  - Short-term deposits; ST F2 New Rating   

Caixa Economica Montepio Geral, Caixa economica bancaria, S.A.

  - LT IDR; B+ Rating Watch On

  - ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - Viability; b+ Rating Watch On

  - Support; 5 Affirmed

  - Support Floor; NF Affirmed

  - Subordinated; LT B-; Rating Watch On

  - Senior preferred; LT B-; Rating Watch On

  - Senior non-preferred; LT B-; Rating Watch On

  - Long-term deposits; LT BB-; New Rating  

  - Senior preferred; ST B; Rating Watch On

  - Short-term deposits; ST B; New Rating   

Banco BPI S.A.

  - LT IDR; BBB Affirmed

  - ST IDR; F2 Affirmed

  - Viability; bb+ Affirmed

  - Support; 2 Affirmed

  - Senior preferred; LT BBB+ Upgrade

  - Long-term deposits; LT BBB+ New Rating   

  - Senior preferred; ST F2 Affirmed

  - Short-term deposits; ST F2 New Rating   

Santander Totta, SGPS, S.A.

  - LT IDR; BBB+ Affirmed

  - ST IDR; F2 Affirmed

  - Viability; bbb- Affirmed

  - Support; 2 Affirmed

  - Senior preferred; LT BBB+ Affirmed

Caixa - Banco de Investimento S.A.

  - LT IDR; BB+ Affirmed

  - ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - Support; 3 Affirmed

Caixa Geral de Depositos, S.A.

  - LT IDR; BB+ Affirmed

  - ST IDR; B Affirmed

  - Viability; bb+ Affirmed

  - Support; 4 Affirmed

  - Support Floor; B Affirmed

  - Subordinated; LT BB- Downgrade

  - Junior subordinated; LT B Affirmed

  - Senior preferred; LT BB+ Affirmed

  - Senior non-preferred; LT BB Affirmed

  - Long-term deposits; LT BBB-; New Rating   

  - Senior preferred; ST B Affirmed

  - Short-term deposits; ST F3; New Rating   

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Banco BPI, S.A. (Banco BPI)

Unless noted, the key rating drivers for Banco BPI are those
outlined in its Rating Action Commentary published in October 2019
(Fitch Affirms Banco BPI at 'BBB'; Outlook Stable).

Fitch has affirmed Banco BPI's Long-Term IDR at 'BBB' and revised
the Outlook on the Long-Term IDR to Negative from Stable mirroring
the Outlook revision on its parent bank, CaixaBank, S.A.
(BBB+/Negative/F2) on March 27, 2020.

Fitch has also affirmed Banco BPI's 'bb+' Viability Rating (VR) but
Fitch believes the economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis
represents a medium-term risk to the bank's VR. The bank enters the
economic downturn with conservative underwriting standards that
have supported resilient asset quality through the cycle and a
stable funding profile that benefits from ordinary support from
CaixaBank. Fitch believes the economic and financial market fallout
from the coronavirus outbreak creates additional downside risks to
its assessment of operating environment, management and strategy
(in particular execution of strategic targets), asset quality and
earnings and profitability relative to when it last reviewed the
bank's ratings.

Banco BPI's long-term senior preferred debt rating has been
upgraded by one notch to 'BBB+' from 'BBB' and removed from being
Under Criteria Observation (UCO) to reflect the protection that
could accrue to senior preferred creditors from more junior bank
resolution debt and equity buffers. Fitch expects Banco BPI's
senior preferred creditors to benefit from credit protection from
resolution buffers, because Banco BPI is part of the same
resolution group as its parent under the plans approved by the
Single Resolution Board (SRB) and Banco BPI has started placing
internally its junior debt buffers.

Fitch has assigned deposit ratings of 'BBB+'/'F2' to Banco BPI, one
notch above the bank's Long-Term IDR and in line with senior
preferred debt. This reflects Fitch's view that depositors would be
protected by the bank's more junior debt and equity buffers in case
of a resolution. However, country risks constrain Banco BPI's
deposit ratings to one notch above the Portuguese sovereign rating
as the protection offered from more junior liabilities would not
offer an obvious incremental protection in a default scenario of
Portugal (BBB/Positive) over and above that of the senior preferred
debt ratings.

Santander Totta SGPS, SA (Totta) and Banco Santander Totta SA
(BST)

Unless noted below, the key rating drivers for Santander Totta,
SGPS, S.A. (Totta) and Banco Santander Totta, S.A. (BST) are those
outlined in its Rating Action Commentary published in October 2019
(Fitch Affirms Santander Totta at 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable).

Fitch has affirmed Totta's and its fully owned bank subsidiary
BST's Long-Term IDRs at 'BBB+' and revised the Outlook on their
Long-Term IDRs to Negative from Stable, mirroring the Outlook
revision on the ultimate parent, Banco Santander, S.A.
(A-/Negative/F2) on March 27, 2020. It analyses Totta and BST on a
consolidated basis and equalise their VRs. This reflects its view
of the very close correlation between failure and default
probabilities at BST and Totta.

Fitch has also affirmed Totta's and BST's VRs of 'bbb-' but Fitch
believes the economic fallout from the coronavirus crisis
represents a medium-term risk to the VRs. The bank enters the
economic downturn with a moderate risk appetite, resilient
operating profitability metrics, superior execution records than
domestic peers and a stable funding profile that benefits from
ordinary support from its parent. Fitch believes the economic and
financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak creates
additional downside risks to its assessment of operating
environment, management and strategy (in particular execution of
strategic targets), asset quality and earnings relative to when it
last reviewed the bank's ratings.

BST's long-term senior preferred debt rating has been affirmed at
'BBB+' and removed from UCO because resolution debt and equity
buffers at the Portuguese holding company do not offer obvious
incremental protection to senior preferred creditors of the
operating company over and above the institutional support benefit
already factored into the bank's Long-Term IDR, given that the
latter is constrained by country risk considerations at one notch
above the Portuguese sovereign.

Fitch has also assigned deposit ratings of 'BBB+'/'F2' to BST, in
line with the bank's Long-Term IDR, reflecting Fitch's view that
depositors would be protected by the bank's more junior debt and
equity buffers in case of a resolution. However, country risks
constrain BST's deposit ratings to one notch above the sovereign
rating as the protection offered from more junior liabilities would
not offer an obvious incremental protection in a default scenario
of Portugal over and above that of the senior preferred debt
ratings.

Banco Comercial Portugues, S.A. (BCP)

Unless noted below, the key rating drivers for BCP are those
outlined in its Rating Action Commentary published in October 2019
(Fitch Revises Banco Comercial Portugues' Outlook to Positive;
Affirms at 'BB').

Fitch has affirmed BCP's Long-Term IDR of 'BB' and its VR of 'bb'
and revised the Outlook on the Long-Term IDR to Negative from
Positive because Fitch believes the economic fallout from the
coronavirus crisis represents a medium-term risk to the bank's
ratings. However, the bank enters the economic downturn after
having made significant progress in addressing asset-quality
problems. Its ratings are underpinned by resilient pre-impairment
operating profitability and a generally stable funding and
liquidity profile. Fitch believes the economic and financial market
fallout from the coronavirus outbreak creates additional downside
risks to its assessment of operating environment, management and
strategy (in particular execution of strategic targets), asset
quality, earnings and capitalization relative to when it last
reviewed the bank's ratings.

Fitch has downgraded BCP's senior non-preferred debt rating by one
notch to 'BB-' from 'BB' and removed the rating from UCO to reflect
the risk of below average recoveries arising from the use of senior
preferred debt to meet resolution buffer requirements. In addition,
Fitch does not expect the combined buffer of additional Tier 1,
Tier 2 and senior non-preferred debt being to exceed 10% of
risk-weighted assets of BCP's resolution group.

BCP's Tier 2 debt rating has been downgraded by one notch to 'B+'
from 'BB-' and removed from UCO to reflect the change in baseline
notching for loss-severity to two notches (from one previously)
from the VR since the bank does not meet the specific conditions
under its criteria for applying one notch.

Fitch has assigned deposit ratings of 'BB+'/'B' to BCP, one notch
above the bank's Long-Term IDR, reflecting Fitch's view that
depositors, would be protected by the bank's senior preferred
instruments, junior debt and equity buffers in case of a
resolution. This is because Fitch expects BCP to comply with its
minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities (MREL).

Caixa Economica Montepio Geral, caixa economica bancaria, S.A.
(Banco Montepio)

Unless noted below, the key rating drivers for Banco Montepio are
those outlined in its Rating Action Commentary published on 31
October 2019 (Fitch Affirms Banco Montepio at 'B+'; Stable
Outlook).

Fitch has placed Banco Montepio's Long-Term IDR, VR and debt
ratings on Rating Watch Negative (RWN) because the economic fallout
from the coronavirus crisis represents a near-term risk to the
bank's ratings, since the bank enters the economic downturn from a
position of relative weakness. This is given its slower record in
improving asset quality than domestic peers, higher levels of
problem assets, weaker capitalization (in particular still elevated
capital encumbrance from unreserved problem assets) and more
confidence-sensitive funding and liquidity. Fitch believes the
economic and financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak
creates additional downside risks to its assessment of operating
environment, management and strategy (execution of strategic
targets), asset quality, profitability, capitalization and funding
and liquidity profile relative to when it last reviewed the bank's
ratings.

Fitch has affirmed the Short-Term IDR of 'B' as Fitch does not
believe that there is a heightened likelihood that Banco Montepio's
VR and Long-Term IDR will be downgraded by more than one notch,
which would remain commensurate with a Short-Term IDR of 'B'.

Fitch has assigned deposits ratings of 'BB-'/RWN/'B' to Banco
Montepio, one notch above the bank's Long-Term IDR. Fitch has
assigned an RR3 Recovery Rating the long-term deposit rating to
reflect good recoveries on the bank's deposits in a resolution
because of the protection afforded to depositors from more junior
bank resolution debt and equity buffers, including from senior
preferred debt.

Caixa Geral de Depositos, S.A. (CGD)

Unless noted below, the key rating drivers for CGD are those
outlined in its Rating Action Commentary published on 30 October
2019 ('Fitch Upgrades Caixa Geral de Depositos to 'BB+'; Outlook
Stable').

Fitch has affirmed CGD's 'BB+' Long-Term IDR and 'bb+' VR, and
revised the Outlook on the Long-Term IDR to Negative from Stable
because Fitch believes the economic fallout from the coronavirus
crisis represents a medium-term risk to the bank's ratings. CGD
enters the economic downturn after having made significant progress
in addressing asset-quality problems and delivering on its
2017-2020 restructuring plan. Its ratings are underpinned by
satisfactory capital buffers and now moderate capital encumbrance
from unreserved problem assets, improved operating profitability,
and generally stable funding and liquidity. Fitch believes the
economic and financial market fallout from the coronavirus outbreak
creates additional downside risks to its assessment of operating
environment, management and strategy (in particular execution of
strategic targets), asset quality, earnings and capitalization
relative to when it last reviewed the bank's ratings.

CGD's Tier 2 debt has been downgraded by one notch to 'BB-' from
'BB' and removed from UCO to reflect the change in baseline
notching for loss-severity to two notches (from one previously)
from the VR since the bank does not meet the specific conditions
under its criteria for applying one notch.

Fitch has assigned deposits ratings of 'BBB-'/'F3' to CGD, one
notch above the bank's Long-Term IDR, reflecting Fitch's view that
depositors would be protected by buffers of senior preferred and
junior debt and equity buffers in case of a resolution.

Fitch has revised the Outlook on Caixa Banco de Investimento's
(Caixa BI) Long-Term IDR to Negative from Stable as a result of the
rating action on CGD. Caixa BI is a wholly-owned subsidiary of CGD
and its ratings are equalized with those of its parent, driven by
the full ownership, its integration within its parent and the
offering of investment banking products to CGD's customer base.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Except otherwise stated below, existing rating sensitivities as
defined in the latest rating action commentaries on each issuer and
its respective debt classes continue to apply.

With the exception of Totta, BST and Banco BPI, whose Long-Term
IDRs are driven by expectations of support from Banco Santander and
CaixaBank, respectively, the most immediate downside rating
sensitivity for banks' IDRs, VRs and debt ratings is now the
economic and financial market fallout arising from the coronavirus
outbreak. The crisis results in a clear downside risk to its
assessment of the banks' operating environment, their execution of
strategic targets, asset quality, earnings and capitalization.
Pressure on the ratings could be mitigated to the extent that
government and central bank support packages offset the impact of
the expected decline in Portuguese and eurozone GDP in 2020 on
banks' financial metrics.

Banco BPI, S.A. (Banco BPI)

BPI's IDRs and debt ratings are sensitive to the same factors that
may drive a change in CaixaBank's IDRs, from which they are
notched.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

BPI's VR is likely to be downgraded if there is a pronounced and
sustained deterioration in the Portuguese operating environment
expected to last into 2021, in particular due to rapidly rising
private-sector indebtedness and permanent erosion of business
prospects, or if the bank experiences a material deterioration in
its asset quality and earnings metrics without being able to take
appropriate mitigating actions. Banco BPI has headroom to emerge
with its VR intact due to the relative strength of its management
and strategy, better starting point asset quality than peers, more
conservative risk appetite, acceptable capitalization and leverage
(including moderate capital encumbrance), and stable funding and
liquidity, which are all assessed above its VR.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

An upgrade would require a significant strengthening of the company
profile, in terms of franchise and business model diversification
towards non-interest income while maintaining the bank's more
conservative risk appetite than domestic peers. Further integration
within CaixaBank may help revenue generation in the medium term,
which would also ultimately be positive for the VR as it would
likely result in a more resilient business model and operating
profitability.

Banco BPI's senior preferred debt and deposit ratings are primarily
sensitive to Banco BPI's IDRs. They are also sensitive to a
downgrade of the Portuguese sovereign as they are constrained by
its assessment of country risks.

Santander Totta, SGPS, S.A. (Totta) and Banco Santander Totta S.A.
(BST)

Totta's and BST's IDRs and debt ratings are sensitive to the same
factors that may drive a change in Banco Santander's IDRs, from
which they are notched.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

Totta's and BST's VRs is likely to be downgraded if there is a
pronounced and sustained deterioration in the Portuguese operating
environment expected to last into 2021, in particular due to
rapidly rising private-sector indebtedness and a permanent erosion
of business prospects, or if the bank's experiences acute
deterioration in its asset quality and earnings metrics without
being able to take appropriate mitigating actions. Totta and BST
have headroom to emerge with their VR intact due to the relative
strength of the bank's company profile, its management and
strategy, better starting point asset quality than peers, more
conservative risk appetite than domestic peers, acceptable
capitalization and leverage, and stable funding and liquidity,
which are all in line or above its VR.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

Upside for the VRs is limited in the short term and would be
contingent on an improvement in the operating environment in
Portugal, and stronger asset quality and capitalization. A material
reduction in private sector indebtedness and better competitive and
business growth prospects in Portugal would be positive for its
assessment of the Portuguese operating environment.

BST's senior preferred debt and deposit ratings are sensitive to
BST's IDRs. They are also sensitive to the Portuguese sovereign
rating as they are constrained by its assessment of country risks.

Banco Comercial Portugues, S.A. (BCP)

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

BCP's ratings would likely be downgraded in case of a pronounced
and sustained deterioration in the Portuguese operating environment
expected to last into 2021, in particular due to rapidly rising
private-sector indebtedness and permanent erosion of business
prospects. Fitch has also likely to downgrade BCP if Fitch expects
its execution capabilities, earnings and profitability, asset
quality and capitalization to suffer from a prolonged
deterioration. BCP has some headroom to emerge with its IDRs, VR,
debt and deposit ratings intact due to the relative strength of its
company profile, which provides it with some pricing power in
Portugal, resilient pre-impairment profitability and a generally
stable funding and liquidity profile, which are all assessed above
its VR.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

An upgrade of its ratings would be contingent on further material
reduction in the bank's stock of problem assets, including
harder-to-reduce restructuring funds and real estate assets. A
sustained reduction in problem assets at BCP would result in lower
loan impairment charges over time, stronger operating profitability
and ultimately reduce capital vulnerability to asset-quality
shocks. Stronger capital ratios, which are comparatively low at
BCP, would also be ultimately positive as they would further
increase BCP's headroom relative to total capital requirements.

BCP's senior-non preferred debt rating could be downgraded if the
bank's Long-Term IDR is downgraded. Conversely, the senior
non-preferred debt rating could be upgraded if Fitch expects that
BCP will meet its MREL without recourse to senior preferred debt or
if the agency expects the buffer of Tier 1, Tier 2 and senior
non-preferred debt to sustainably exceed 10% of the Portuguese
resolution group's risk-weighted assets.

BCP's Tier 2 ratings are sensitive to changes in the bank's VR and
BCP's deposit ratings are sensitive to changes in the bank's IDRs.

Caixa Economica Montepio Geral, caixa economica bancaria, S.A.
(Banco Montepio)

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

The RWN on Banco Montepio's ratings reflects the near-term risks to
its ratings arising from the coronavirus outbreak and a heightened
probability Fitch will downgrade the bank. The bank's weaker
starting point than domestic peers means its ratings have only
limited headroom in the face of the economic disruption posed by
the outbreak.

Fitch expects to resolve the RWN in the near term, when the impact
of the outbreak on Banco Montepio's credit profile becomes more
apparent. Potential downgrade triggers are a material increase in
the impaired loans ratio or in forborne exposures; increased
likelihood of weaker capitalization due to higher loan impairment
charges or problem asset build-up; or failure to maintain operating
profitability, capital and liquidity in the downturn. In resolving
the RWN, Fitch will seek to understand the extent to which fiscal
support measures for the private sector and Banco Montepio's own
corrective actions will cushion the financial impact on the bank's
asset quality, earnings, capital, funding profile and liquidity.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

There is limited rating upside due to a still large, although
declining, stock of problem assets and weak operating
profitability. An upgrade would be contingent on the bank improving
substantially operating profitability and asset-quality metrics and
materially reducing capital encumbrance from problem assets.
Further evidence of a more efficient and developed corporate
governance in conjunction with significant positive developments in
the bank's financial profile would ultimately be positive for
ratings.

Banco Montepio's deposit ratings are primarily sensitive to changes
in the bank's IDRs. They are also sensitive to recovery prospects.

Caixa Geral de Depositos, S.A. (CGD), Caixa Banco de Investimento

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

CGD's VR are likely to be downgraded if there is a pronounced and
sustained deterioration in the Portuguese operating environment
expected to last into 2021, in particular due to rapidly rising
private-sector indebtedness and a permanent erosion of business
prospects, or if the bank's ability to execute its strategy weakens
in a more challenging environment, or if asset quality and earnings
deteriorate without appropriate mitigating actions. CGD has
headroom to emerge with its IDRs, VR and debt ratings intact due to
the relative strength of its company profile, risk appetite,
acceptable capitalization relative to its risk appetite with
moderate capital encumbrance and generally stable funding and
liquidity, which all support its VR.

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

Upside to CGD's ratings is contingent on further improvements in
its financial profile, in particular its asset quality and
operating profitability to levels in line with global sector
averages while maintaining an unchanged risk appetite in Portugal
and abroad. Sustained improvements in CGD's cost-efficiency and
increased business model diversification towards activities
generating recurring non-interest income would also ultimately be
positive for the bank's ratings.

CGD's Tier 2 ratings are sensitive to changes in the bank's VR and
CGD's deposit ratings sensitive to changes in the bank's IDRs.

The ratings of Caixa Banco de Investimento are sensitive to changes
in CGD's IDRs or to a change in CGD's propensity to support its
subsidiary, which is not expected.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Best/Worst Case Rating Scenarios - Financial Institutions:

Ratings of Financial Institutions issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years.
The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS

The ratings of Caixa - BI, a wholly owned subsidiary of CGD, are
linked to CGD's ratings. The ratings of Banco BPI are linked to
CaixaBank's ratings. The ratings of BST and Totta are linked to
Banco Santander, S.A.'s ratings.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Banco Montepio has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for governance
structure. Alleged disagreements between Banco Montepio's previous
management team and the bank's majority shareholder, MGAM, led to
the nomination and appointment of a new management team, within a
new governance model framework, since March 2018. The stabilisation
of the bank's management and board of directors is taking longer
than expected, in Fitch's opinion. This reflects less-developed
corporate governance than those of its domestic peers, although the
bank has been making progress. Banco Montepio's governance
structure could have a negative impact on the bank's credit
profile, if it led notably to a slower execution of the bank's
restructuring plan and/or commercial franchise erosion. It is
relevant to Banco Montepio's rating in conjunction with other
factors.

Except for the matters discussed, the highest level of ESG credit
relevance, if present, is a score of '3' - ESG issues are credit
neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entities,
either due to their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entities.



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DME LIMITED: Moody's Places Ba1 CFR on Review for Downgrade
-----------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has placed under review for downgrade DME
Limited (Moscow Domodedovo Airport)'s Ba1 corporate family rating,
Ba1-PD probability of default rating and Ba1 senior unsecured
rating of the USD loan participation notes issued by DME Airport
DAC. The outlook on both entities has changed to ratings under
review from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE / FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR
DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The rating action reflects the unprecedented pressure in the
industry caused by the evolving outbreak of coronavirus, which
involves the increasingly stringent travel restrictions imposed
both in Russia and globally as well as elevated counterparty risks
given the severe stress being experienced by key airlines serviced
by the airport.

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The airport sector
has been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the
shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment.
Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety that lead to severe restrictions to air travel,
cancellation of airline routes and closing of borders, as well as
enhanced health and safety standards and regulation potentially
resulting in additional compliance expenses and potential
non-compliance costs in the form of fines. Its action reflects the
impact on DME of the breadth and severity of the shock, and the
broad deterioration in credit quality it has triggered.

While in January-February 2020, air travel in Russia continued to
grow with DME's traffic expanding by 15%, after a series of local
restrictions starting February 2020, on 27 March all the
international flights were banned according to press release by
Rosaviation dated March 26. Although domestic flights, which
accounted for around 55% of DME's traffic in 2019, remain intact so
far, weak consumer sentiments and rising local mobility
restrictions have already started to pressure demand in this
segment, particularly hitting travel in Moscow and Moscow region,
which are the most affected by the virus spread in the country.

Whilst the environment is difficult to predict, Moody's base case
assumption is that the coronavirus pandemic will lead to a period
of severe cuts in passenger traffic over the upcoming weeks but
that there will be a gradual recovery in passenger volumes starting
by the third quarter 2020. The prospects for traffic rebound is,
however, highly uncertain because (1) travel restrictions in some
form may continue for some time even if the spread of the virus
seems contained; (2) the deteriorating domestic and global economic
outlook would likely slow the recovery in traffic and consumer
spending, even if travel restrictions are eased; and (3) the
coronavirus outbreak is also weakening the credit profile of
airlines, which have been drastically cutting capacity. Additional
risks for DME come from the intense competition in the Moscow Air
Cluster and the presence of the clear market leader Sheremetyevo, a
hub for the national flag carrier, Aeroflot Group. As events
continue to unfold, there is a higher than usual degree of
uncertainty around the length of travel restrictions and drop in
travel demand. Hence, it is difficult to predict the overall
traffic volumes for 2020 with high risks of more challenging
downside scenarios including new travel restrictions on domestic
flights and extension of the existing ban on international flights
into Q3.

Nevertheless, Moody's currently assumes that the decline in DME's
passenger traffic will be at least around 30% in the financial year
ending December 2020, driven by dramatic declines in the first half
of the year and a recovery in the second half albeit phased over
the period with traffic likely remaining well below pre-crisis
levels.

The significant rouble depreciation, which followed a major drop in
oil prices in March 2020, if sustained through the year, will
further pressure DME's credit profile given its exposure to
foreign-exchange risks, with most of its debt denominated in
foreign currency. Although the airport historically had some
natural hedge coming from around 50% of revenue and most of its
cash balance being in US dollars and euros, the full lock-down of
international air travel over at least the next three months will
cut materially its foreign exchange revenue in 2020.

As a response to the crisis, DME has initiated the implementation
of countermeasures, including deferral of non-essential capital
spending and cost saving initiatives. In addition, Russian
government is now considering a set of indirect or direct financial
support measures to domestic airports to alleviate pressures on
their cost bases and balance sheets, the exact form and timing of
which, however, still remain uncertain. Nevertheless, the
unprecedented stress to the industry from the coronavirus outbreak
with significant uncertainty in a rapidly evolving situation pose
challenges that may counterbalance all the support measures.

Overall, a sharp decline in passenger and aircraft traffic in the
coming months as a result of implementation of travel restrictions
and the significantly weaker credit profile of its carrier base,
which coincides with the material rouble depreciation, will
significantly weaken DME's credit metrics. Moody's expects the
airport's financial leverage, as measured by funds from operations
(FFO) to debt to fall to the low single digit in percentage terms
in 2020, while its reported net debt/EBITDA will breach the current
debt covenant level well exceeding 4.0x.

Notwithstanding the significantly reduced cash flow over at least
the next few weeks, DME remains an important infrastructure
provider with a potential for a strong recovery once the
coronavirus outbreak and its effects have been contained. A
reversion of the airport's metrics to within the Ba1 rating
tolerance level hinges on a consistent recovery in passenger
volumes along with stabilization of the macroeconomic situation in
Russia over 2021.

DME's current liquidity provides some flexibility to withstand an
extended disruption to the aviation sector, particularly given
moderate debt service requirements until November 2021, when a $350
million outstanding Eurobond matures as well as the absence of any
material development projects following the completion of its major
investment cycle in 2019. Moody's also assumes that management will
proactively take steps to obtain waivers for financial maintenance
covenant breaches resulting from the disruption. However, a more
severe downside into Q3 would likely start to pressurize the
company's current resources. In that case, DME's access to
financial markets or other sources of alternative liquidity may be
required.

DME's ratings continue to factor in the airport's (1) position as
the second-largest airport in the Moscow Air Cluster (MAC), with a
vast service area and strong fundamentals; (2) well-developed
infrastructure, to be reinforced by the new terminal and airfield
facilities, which, once operational, will strengthen its
competitive position and service offering and provide sufficient
capacity to accommodate future growth; and (3) diversified carrier
base, with a sound anchor airline and mostly origin and destination
(O&D) traffic.

At the same time, the intense competition and the inherent exposure
to airline failures, exacerbated by the current distress, will
continue to strain DME's operating profile. The ratings also remain
constrained by DME's (1) reliance on the state to develop airfield
facilities, which has driven a delay in launching the new terminal
at full capacity; (2) exposure to the evolving regulatory
environment, particularly in view of an upcoming shift to
concession agreement and overall less-developed legal, political
and economic frameworks in Russia (Baa3 stable); and (3)
concentrated ownership structure with weak corporate governance
standards.

The ratings review will consider (1) the airport's financial
profile over the next two to three years as the coronavirus
situation evolves, (2) the airport's liquidity position over the
next 12 to 18 months, (3) any increase in DME's exposure to
counterparty risk from key airlines as a result of the virus
outbreak, and (4) actions that DME is undertaking to bolster its
liquidity and protect its credit profile in the face of the
challenging operating conditions as well as the timeliness and the
extent of any potential state support measures.

Given that the ratings are placed on review for downgrade, Moody's
currently does not envisage any upward rating pressure. The ratings
could be confirmed if there is clear evidence that the impact from
the virus outbreak is easing and the airport is returning to
normalized operating conditions, successfully resolves any
temporary financial covenant breaches, is able to demonstrate
sustainable capitalization profile and sustain a comfortable
liquidity buffer.

Moody's could downgrade DME's ratings if the traffic decline in the
coming months exceeds Moody's base case expectations, or if there
is an evidence of liquidity stress, stemming from a worsening
counterparty exposure.



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A.I. CANDELARIA: Fitch Dowgrades LT IDR to 'BB+'
------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ecopetrol S.A., Oleoducto Central S.A.
(OCENSA) and A.I. Candelaria (Spain), S.L. and affirmed its ratings
on other Colombian corporates following this week's Sovereign
Rating downgrade of Colombia.

The rating downgrades of Ecopetrol, OCENSA and A.I. Candelaria
reflect the direct and indirect linkage of these companies to the
Sovereign Rating downgrade of Colombia, which Fitch downgraded this
week to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. The ratings for Emgesa, Isagen and UNE
EPM Telecomunicaciones have been affirmed at 'BBB' reflecting the
country ceiling for Colombia of 'BBB'. The negative outlooks on the
foreign currency ratings reflect the fact that they could be
negatively impacted by downgrades of the country's Sovereign Rating
and country ceiling. These companies operate within Colombia and do
not have substantial offshore cash or EBITDA from other countries.
The ratings on Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana (Grupo Sura)
('BBB'/Stable) reflect their offshore cash and EBITDA outside of
Colombia. The applicable country ceiling for Grupo Sura is that of
Chile, since cash flow from Chile is sufficient to cover interest
expenses for both companies. Grupo Energia Bogota's (GEB's)
('BBB'/Stable) applicable country ceiling is that of Peru, since
cash flow from Peru is adequate to cover GEB's interest expense.
The ratings of Transportadora de Gas Internacional (TGI)
('BBB'/Stable) reflect its strong linkage with its parent company,
GEB. A further downgrade of Colombia's Sovereign Rating will likely
result in rating downgrades for Ecopetrol, OCENSA, A.I. Candelaria,
Emgesa, Isagen and UNE EPM Telecomunicaciones.

UNE EPM Telecomunicaciones S.A.

  - LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

  - LC LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

Ecopetrol S.A.

  - LT IDR BBB-; Downgrade

  - LC LT IDR BBB-; Downgrade

  - Senior unsecured; LT BBB-; Downgrade

Grupo de Inversiones Suramericana S.A.

  - LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

  - LC LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

Oleoducto Central S.A. (OCENSA)

  - LT IDR BBB-; Downgrade

  - LC LT IDR BBB-; Downgrade

Isagen S.A. ESP

  - LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

  - LC LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

Grupo Energia Bogota S.A. E.S.P. (GEB)

  - LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

  - LC LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

A.I. Candelaria (Spain), S.L.

  - LT IDR BB+; Downgrade

  - LC LT IDR BB+; Downgrade

  - Senior secured; LT BB+; Downgrade

Emgesa S.A. E.S.P

  - LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

  - LC LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

  - Senior unsecured; LT BBB; Affirmed

Transportadora de Gas Internacional S.A. ESP (TGI)

  - LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

  - LC LT IDR BBB; Affirmed

  - Senior unsecured; LT BBB; Affirmed

KEY RATING DRIVERS

The sovereign downgrade reflects a likely weakening of key fiscal
metrics in the wake of the economic downturn caused by a
combination of shocks stemming from the sharp fall in oil prices
and efforts to combat the worldwide coronavirus pandemic. Fitch
expects a moderate contraction of the Colombian economy by 0.5% in
2020, driven by a significant slowdown in domestic demand and oil
exports, followed by a modest recovery of 2.3% in 2021. A rise in
the debt burden in recent years and an expected fall in tax
revenues have left the government with less fiscal space to
counteract economic shocks, in Fitch's view. The Negative Outlook
reflects downside risks to the outlook for economic growth and
public finances, and to the capacity and quality of the
government's policy response to decisively cut deficits and
stabilize debt over the coming years, given the scale of the
shocks.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments that May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to a
Positive Rating Action:

Fitch does not currently anticipate developments with a high
likelihood of leading to a positive rating change. However, the
main factors that could lead Fitch to stabilize the Outlook
include:

  -- Fiscal consolidation consistent with an improved trajectory
for public debt dynamics.

  -- A return to economic growth prospects consistent with medium
term potential above 3%.

  -- Reduced external imbalances that improve external debt and
liquidity ratios.

Developments that May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to a
Negative Rating Action:

  -- Failure to achieve a fiscal consolidation consistent with
stabilization and eventual reduction in the government debt
burden.

  -- Damage to medium term growth prospects.

  -- Sustained large external imbalances that lead to a continuous
rise in the external debt burden.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Best/Worst Case Rating Scenarios Non-Financial Corporate:

Ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years.
The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Ecopetrol has an environmental, social and governance Relevance
Score of 4 for waste and hazardous materials management due to oil
spills the company has experienced in the past.

The company's relevance score of 4 also stems from exposure to
social impacts due to multiple attacks to its pipelines.

Ecopetrol's score for Governance Structure is 4, resulting from its
nature as a majority government-owned entity and the inherent
governance risks that arise with a dominant state shareholder.
Except for the matters discussed above, the highest level of ESG
credit relevance, if present, is a score of 3 - ESG issues are
credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
due to either their nature or the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

NH HOTEL: Fitch Corrects April 1 Ratings Release
------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings replaced a ratings release published on April 1, 2020
to correct the name of the obligor for the bonds.

Fitch Ratings has downgraded NH Hotel Group S.A.'s Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating to 'B-' from 'B' and senior secured long-term rating
to 'B+'/'RR2' from 'BB-'/'RR2'. The Outlook is Negative.

The downgrade reflects a weakening of the consolidated credit
profile of the Thai group Minor International Public Company
Limited (Minor), which owns 94% of NHH, due to severe operational
disruption in the lodging sector - one of the sectors most impacted
by the COVID-19 outbreak. Its assessment is based on the
application of Fitch's Parent Subsidiary Linkage Criteria.

The Negative Outlook reflects uncertainty around the financial
profile of the consolidated Minor group and of NHH once the crisis
concludes, which may exhibit weaker-than-expected credit metrics.

NHH's standalone credit profile (SCP) has been revised down to 'b'
from 'b+'. It however reflects satisfactory financial flexibility
to withstand the current crisis, with a progressive rebound of
operational performance in 2021 to levels seen in 2019, and a
continued deleveraging path, although delayed by around 24 months
compared with its previous rating case.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

High Exposure to Coronavirus Disruption: Its downgrade reflects the
material impact of the COVID-19 economic disruption for lodging
companies. As a result of the restriction of movements imposed by
governments to limit the pandemic spread and exceptional measures
to offset sharp declining demand, Fitch expects worldwide
occupancies to fall sharply during 2020, before normalizing
progressively from 4Q20 into 2021. Some government support to
soften the economic shock has been incorporated in its assumptions,
but additional initiatives could ease the immediate downturn impact
from the outbreak.

Parent Subsidiary Linkage: The near full ownership (94%) by Minor
has led us to assess the ties between the two entities as strong
since it technically can access NHH's cash flows through a change
in financial policy and could take control of the Board. This
assessment is in light of Minor's higher leverage and vulnerability
to credit profile deterioration from the pandemic versus NHH's.
NHH's rating is therefore constrained at 'B-', reflecting Minor's
consolidated credit profile and strong linkages between the two
entities in line with Fitch's Parent and Subsidiary Rating Linkage
Criteria.

Post-crisis Leverage Higher: Its rating case expects funds from
operations (FFO)-adjusted net leverage to peak in 2020 and to
remain above or at 5.5x up to 2022, albeit still with deleveraging
capacity. Operating leases remain a high burden on adjusted
financial debt, especially given the high share of fixed rents.
This is mitigated by NHH's efforts to renegotiate and cancel
onerous leases along with rent variability and by NHH introducing a
cap mechanism. As of December 2019, 24% of their rents were
variable or had a cap mechanism.

A return to pre-crisis trading conditions, coupled with a continued
focus on free cash flow (FCF) generation and the support of a
conservative financial policy by the shareholder, could accelerate
deleveraging. However, uncertainty around this scenario supports
the Negative Outlook.

Sharp Revenue Decline Expected: Fitch projects a sharp decline of
NHH's revenues by more than 50% in 2020, leading to a negative
EBITDA margin, due to forced closure of hotels in its main markets
(Spain and Italy) and voluntary temporary closure of hotels in
other countries based on low activity or occupancy. Fitch projects
a recovery towards 17% by 2022.

Actions Protecting Cost Base: NHH's cost base is aided by measures
from different European governments (especially in Spain where the
group is based) that will largely enable staff cost reduction on a
temporary basis and provide some fiscal relief, and by a
contingency plan being implemented to adapt operations. EBITDA is
also partially supported by the 21% freehold portfolio of NHH,
bargaining power with its landlords and the outsourced nature of
part of its operating expenditure.

Sufficient Liquidity to Weather Crisis: NHH's EUR289 million of
reported cash on balance sheet and more than EUR300 million of
committed lines available at end-2019 as well as no sizeable
maturities until 2023 provide a liquidity cushion to withstand the
current crisis, until early 2021. Fitch expects NHH to slow down
its capex and manage its working capital focusing on cash
preservation in the current highly volatile circumstances. However,
Fitch believes the risk that a more aggressive financial policy
imposed by its Asian shareholder may put pressure on already
forecasted negative free cash flow (FCF) for the next two years.

Uncertain Shareholder's Financial Policy: Minor has publicly
established a long-term target net leverage of around 2.5x for NHH.
Despite restrictions imposed by the bond and revolving credit
facility (RCF) documentation on dividends, investments, guarantees
or new loans, Fitch views this as potentially detrimental to NHH's
credit quality. The current crisis could lead Minor to upstream
more cash from NHH than Fitch has assumed in its rating case,
putting pressure on NHH's credit profile.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

The highest level of ESG credit relevance, if present, is a score
of 3. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a
minimal credit impact on the entity(ies), either due to their
nature or to the way in which they are being managed by the
entity(ies).

DERIVATION SUMMARY

NHH ranks among the top 10 European hotel chains in Europe,
significantly smaller than global peers such as Accor SA
(BBB-/Negative) or Melia Hotels International by breadth of
activities and number of rooms. NHH focuses on urban cities and
business travellers, while Accor and Melia are more diversified
across leisure and business customers. NHH is comparable with
Radisson Hospitality AB (B+/Stable) in size and urban positioning,
although Radisson is present in a greater number of cities. NHH had
an EBITDA margin above 17% in 2019, which is above close competitor
Radisson's, but still far from that of investment-grade,
asset-light operators such as Accor or Marriott.

NHH's FFO lease-adjusted net leverage at 4.8x (adjusted for
variable leases) at end-2019 was higher than peers' due to a large
exposure to leases. NHH remains a more asset-heavy hotel group than
peers, although the use of management contracts increased to around
18% of the hotel portfolio as of end-December 2019. NHH
nevertheless owns rather than leases a material proportion of its
hotel assets, which eases the cost base in a disruptive scenario
such as the coronavirus outbreak.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's Key Assumptions within its Rating Case for the Issuer:

  - Revenue decreasing by more than 50% in 2020, driven by revenue
per average room (RevPar) decline across all regions.

  - EBITDA deteriorating more sharply than revenues in 2020 as a
result of limited immediate cost reductions versus the sudden
decline in trading activity. EBITDA margin to recover towards 17%
by end-2022 from negative in 2020.

  - Around EUR530 million of aggregate capex for 2020-2023 to cover
maintenance capex, additional repositioning within the portfolio,
develop current signed pipeline and some additional limited
expansion.

  - Stable dividend distribution with gross amount in line with
previous distributions, plus a total EUR130 million of
extraordinary dividends distributed over 2021 to 2023.

Recovery Assumptions:

NHH's 'RR2' Recovery Rating for the senior secured notes' rating
reflects the collateral of EUR356.8 million secured notes and a
EUR250 million revolving credit facility, which rank equally with
each other. Collateral includes Dutch hotels as properties that
would be managed by NH group operators, a share pledge on a Dutch
hotel, share pledges on Belgian companies owning hotels that
equally would be managed by NH group operator companies and finally
a share pledge on NH Italy as a single legal entity operating and
owning the whole Italian group. This includes both assets and
operating contracts. The described collateral had a market value of
EUR1,612 million at end-June 2019 as evaluated by a third-party
appraiser.

The expected distribution of recovery proceeds results in potential
full recovery for senior secured creditors, including for senior
secured bonds. The Recovery Rating is, however, constrained by
Fitch's country-specific treatment of Recovery Ratings for Spain,
which effectively caps the uplift from the IDR to two notches at
'B+'/'RR2'.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action (Outlook revised back to Stable)

  - Improvement of the credit profile of the consolidated Minor
group.

The following developments would be considered for the assessment
of NHH's SCP but only provided that links with Minor have been
reassessed as weak:

  - FFO lease-adjusted net leverage below 5.5x on a sustained
basis, due for instance to due for instance to NHH's limited
dividend distribution.

  - EBITDAR/ (gross interest + rent) sustainably above 1.3x.

  - Continued improvement in the operating profile via EBIT margin
and RevPar uplift

  - Sustained positive FCF

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action

  - Weakening of the credit profile of the consolidated Minor group
so long as links between Minor and NHH are assessed as strong.

The following developments would be considered for the assessment
of NHH's SCP and in the event of Minor displaying a stronger SCP
profile:

  - FFO lease-adjusted net leverage above 6.0x on a sustained
basis, for example due to shareholder's initiatives such as
increased dividend payments

  - EBITDAR/ (gross interest +rent) below 1.3x

  - Weakening trading performance leading to EBIT margin (excluding
capital gains) trending toward 5% in 2021 and thereafter.

  - Negative FCF

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of non-financial corporate issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years.
The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Satisfactory Liquidity: NHH's EUR250 million revolving credit
facility (RCF) was fully drawn in March 2020 and provides a healthy
liquidity buffer, in addition to EUR254 million of readily
available cash on balance sheet as of end-2019 (as defined by
Fitch). This cash is partially derived from the sale and lease-back
of the Barbizon Palace in Amsterdam (EUR122 million net). This
supports the current rating through its forecast-crisis scenario,
along with the capacity to shore up liquidity with further
cash-preservation measures, including flexing its capex plans and
cost base.

The ownership of unencumbered assets (EUR951 million of
un-encumbered assets as valued at end-June 2019 partially by a
third-party appraiser) provides additional financial flexibility.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS

This rating is linked to Minor International's rating.

SANTANDER CONSUMO 3: DBRS Assigns Prov. BB(high) Rating on E Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
DBRS Ratings GmbH assigned provisional ratings to the following
classes of notes (collectively, the Rated Notes) to be issued by
Santander Consumo 3, FT (the Issuer):

-- Series A Notes at AA (sf)
-- Series B Notes at A (sf)
-- Series C Notes at A (low) (sf)
-- Series D Notes at BBB (sf)
-- Series E Notes at BB (high) (sf)

DBRS Morningstar does not rate the Series F expected to be issued
in this transaction.

The rating of the Series A Notes addresses the timely payment of
interest and the ultimate repayment of principal by the legal
maturity date in December 2031 The ratings on the Series B Notes,
Series C Notes, Series D Notes, and Series E Notes address the
ultimate payment of interest and ultimate repayment of principal by
the legal maturity date.

DBRS Morningstar based its ratings on a review of the following
analytical considerations:

-- The transaction's capital structure, including form and
sufficiency of available credit enhancement.

-- Credit enhancement levels are sufficient to support DBRS
Morningstar's projected expected net losses under various stress
scenarios.

-- The ability of the transaction to withstand stressed cash flow
assumptions and repay investors according to the terms of the
notes.

-- The seller's, originator's, and servicer's financial strength
and their capabilities with respect to originations, underwriting,
and servicing.

-- The other parties' financial strength with regard to their
respective roles.

-- DBRS Morningstar's operational risk review on Banco Santander,
which it deemed to be an acceptable servicer.

-- The credit quality, diversification of the collateral and
historical and projected performance of the seller's portfolio.

-- DBRS Morningstar's current sovereign rating of the Kingdom of
Spain at "A" with a Positive trend.

-- The consistency of the transaction's legal structure with DBRS
Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance
Transactions" methodology, the presence of legal opinions that
address the true sale of the assets to the Issuer, and
nonconsolidation of the Issuer with the seller.

The transaction represents the issuance of Series A Notes, Series B
Notes, Series C Notes, Series D Notes, and Series E Notes backed by
a portfolio of approximately EUR 2.0 billion fixed-rate and
floating-rate receivables related to consumer loans granted by
Banco Santander, S.A (the originator) to private individuals
residing in Spain. The originator will also service the portfolio.
Series F Notes will be issued to fund the cash reserve.

The transaction includes an 11-month revolving period scheduled to
end in March 2021. During the revolving period, the originator may
offer additional receivables that the Issuer will purchase provided
that eligibility criteria and concentration limits set out in the
transaction documents are satisfied. The revolving period may end
earlier than scheduled if certain events occur, such as the breach
of performance triggers, insolvency of the originator, or
replacement of the servicer.

The transaction allocates payments on a combined interest and
principal priority and benefits from a amortizing EUR 30.0 million
cash reserve funded through the subscription proceeds of the Series
F Notes. The cash reserve can be used to cover senior costs,
interest on Series A Notes, Series B Notes, Series C Notes, Series
D Notes, and Series E Notes but cannot be used to offset losses.

The repayment of the notes will start after the end of the
revolving period on the first principal payment date in June 2021
on a pro rata basis unless certain events such as breach of
performance triggers, insolvency of the originator or the
termination of the servicer occur. Under these circumstances, the
principal repayment of the notes will become fully sequential, and
the switch is not reversible.

The Rated Notes pay interest indexed to three-month Euribor whereas
most of the portfolio pays a fixed-interest rate.

The interest rate risk arising from the mismatch between the
Issuer's liabilities the portfolio is hedged through a swap
agreement with an eligible counterparty.

Banco Santander acts as the account bank for the transaction. Based
on the DBRS Morningstar rating of Banco Santander at A (high) (COR
at AA (low)), the downgrade provisions outlined in the transaction
documents, and structural mitigants, DBRS Morningstar considers the
risk arising from the exposure to Banco Santander to be consistent
with the rating assigned to the Series A Notes, as described in
DBRS Morningstar's "Legal Criteria for European Structured Finance
Transactions" methodology.

Banco Santander acts as the swap counterparty for the transaction.
DBRS Morningstar's Long-Term Issuer and Long-Term COR ratings of
Banco Santander at A (high) and AA (low), respectively, are
consistent with the First Rating Threshold as described in DBRS
Morningstar's "Derivative Criteria for European Structured Finance
Transactions" methodology.

Notes: All figures are in Euros unless otherwise noted.



===========
S W E D E N
===========

QUIMPER AB: Fitch Affirms 'B' LT IDR, Alters Outlook to Negative
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Nordic building products
distributor Quimper AB's (Ahlsell AB) Long-Term Issuer Default
Rating to Negative from Stable and affirmed the IDR at 'B'. Fitch
has also affirmed the instrument ratings at 'B+'/'RR3' for the SEK
16.3 billion first-lien term loan and SEK2,250 million revolving
credit facility, and at 'CCC+'/'RR6'/ for the SEK3.9 billion
second-lien term loan.

The Negative Outlook reflects pressure on Ahlsell's credit metrics
due to the expected coronavirus effects resulting in leverage being
even higher than it already was for the rating in the Fitch
forecast.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Coronavirus Effects: The coronavirus has had a limited effect on
Ahlsell's customer demand; all of its branches are open and the
central warehouses in Sweden, Norway and Finland are operating
without disruption. However, in the latter part of March, Ahlsell
experienced a high single-digit decrease in sales compared with the
beginning of the month. This related primarily to the operations in
Norway and Finland, where the government has imposed restrictions
on movement and has closed schools. Demand in Norway is also
greatly correlated with oil price movements.

For Ahlsell's suppliers, Chinese factories have re-opened and are
running at almost full capacity; however, Fitch expects the recent
shuttering of factories in central Europe to affect the company's
sourcing, especially if it is unable to find alternative suppliers.
Transportation restrictions can also limit the supply of goods.
Fitch forecasts there will be temporary pressure on Ahlsell's
revenue and profitability in 2020, but Fitch believes that solid
underlying demand in combination with Ahlsell's proven business
model will support a fairly quick recovery.

Ongoing High Leverage: The rating is restricted to the 'B' category
because of leverage that was high for the rating after the public
to private transaction in 2019 involving Ahlsell, and because of
only modest deleveraging during the forecast period. Although Fitch
expects Ahlsell to be moderately affected by the coronavirus
crisis, Fitch forecasts it will put temporary pressure on cash flow
and will push FFO leverage to 9x in 2020, which it deems aggressive
and above its negative rating guideline. Fitch believes the company
will be able to recover fairly quickly, and leverage will decline
to 7.5x in 2023, supported by Fitch-anticipated improvement in
profitability.

Leverage is still high for the rating and any deviation from the
expected deleveraging path, due to a weaker-than-expected operating
performance for example, may result in a negative rating action.

Cyclicality Affects Revenue: Ahlsell is exposed to cyclical
markets, because its main customers are construction, industrial
and infrastructure companies. The global economic slowdown in 2019
and the related trade war had an impact on Ahlsell's end-markets.
The company's revenue growth slowed materially from 2018, but was
in line with Fitch's forecast that was based on a fall in the
number of housing starts in Sweden in 2018 and in combination with
fewer acquisitions.

Fitch expects Ahlsell's revenue growth in 2020 to be burdened by
the coronavirus, but Fitch forecasts it will recover from 2021.
Fitch bases this expectation on the strong, long-term drivers of
the company's end-markets, such as the trend towards urbanization
and population growth, which Fitch expects to remain resilient.
Fitch also believes that Ahlsell's limited exposure (15% of sales)
to new residential construction, the company's scale and product
diversification mitigate cyclical effects.

Resilient Free Cash Flow: Ahlsell has a good record of converting
EBITDA into cash flow due to the asset-light nature of the business
and its focus on working-capital management, especially
inventories. This is to some extent reflected in the funds from
operations (FFO) margin, but more clearly in the free cash flow
(FCF) margin that is supported by modest capex.

Fitch expects the effects of the coronavirus to pressure the FCF
margin in 2020 to 1.5% and in combination with temporarily higher
capex. However, Fitch forecasts it will recover to about 3% in
2021, which is similar to other investment-grade companies, and
thereafter improve gradually given no expected dividend payments
and capex below 1% of sales. Fitch views a good FCF margin as
critical for the ratings given the company's high leverage.

Strong Business Profile: Fitch views Ahlsell's business profile as
solid, based on its position as the leading Nordic distributor of
installation products, tools and supplies to professional customers
as well as its market-leading position in Sweden. Ahlsell's
products, customers and suppliers are well-diversified although
there is significant geographic concentration to Sweden. The
company's products are available through branches, online and
unmanned on-site solutions. Fitch views Ahlsell's efficient
logistics system as a competitive advantage with short delivery
lead-times in the Nordic region.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Ahlsell has a solid business profile, with market-leading positions
and strong diversification, albeit with a geographical
concentration in Sweden. It compares favorably with other building
products producers, such as Praesidiad Group Ltd (B-/Negative) and
Assemblin Financing AB (B/Stable), and benefits from significant
scale, end-market diversification and market position. HESTIAFLOOR
2's (B+(EXP)/Stable)'s distribution channels provide it with strong
exposure to renovation construction activities similar to Ahlsell,
but it benefits from its own production of flooring products
thereby decreasing the replacement risk associated with
distributors.

Ahlsell's leverage is high for the rating, but in line with
similarly rated Assemblin Financing and HESTIAFLOOR 2. Fitch
expects the effects of the coronavirus to temporarily raise
leverage for Ahlsell and its peers, but for them to recover fairly
quick, based on solid underlying demand and strong market
positions. Ahlsell has a high cash conversion ratio throughout the
cycle, resulting in resilient FCF and adequate financial
flexibility relative to cyclical industrial manufacturers or
building product companies in the same rating categories.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's Key Assumptions Within its Rating Case for the Issuer

Revenue growth of 1.5% CAGR in 2019-2023 driven by long-term
supportive market trends in the Nordics and bolt-on M&A. Fitch
expects the coronavirus to cause a temporary revenue decline in
2020

Coronavirus effects to temporarily pressure EBITDA in 2020, related
to possible cost overruns following supplier replacements and
branch shutdowns. Thereafter a gradual improvement up to 9.3% in
2023 supported by cost savings and synergies

Higher capex of 1% of revenue in 2020 due to the finalization of
investment in the central warehouse in Sweden; thereafter
maintenance capex at 0.6%

Annual acquisitions at around SEK 150 million during the forecast
period (excluding 2020)

RECOVERY ANALYSIS

Fitch's recovery for Ahlsell's first- and second-lien term loans is
based on a going-concern approach. This reflects the company's
asset-light business model. Fitch has taken into account the FY2019
adjusted EBITDA of SEK2.8 billion including a deduction of
financial lease payments and applied a discount of 25%.

Fitch has used an EBITDA multiple of 5x, reflecting the cyclicality
of the business and the company's low valuation in the market's
cyclical downturn. These assumptions result in a recovery rate for
the first-lien term loan rating within the 'RR3' range, which
enables a one-notch uplift from the IDR and the 'RR6' range for the
second-lien term loan resulting in a 'CCC+' rating.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action/Upgrade

  - FFO gross leverage below 6.0x on a sustained basis

  - EBITDA margin consistently above 10%

  - Increased geographical diversification outside Sweden

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action/Downgrade

  - FFO gross leverage above 8.0x on a sustained basis

  - FCF margin below 1% on a sustained basis

  - FFO margin consistently below 4%

  - Aggressive acquisition pace with margin dilution as a result

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Best/Worst Case Rating Scenarios Non-Financial Corporates:

Ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years.
The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings
for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Satisfactory Liquidity: At year-end 2019, Ahlsell had a
Fitch-adjusted cash balance of SEK1,750 million, which is higher
than its previous forecast. The cash balance is further supported
by the RCF of SEK2,250 million with maturity in 2025, and Ahlsell's
strong FCF generation compared to peers' as well as limited
seasonal working-capital needs. In March 2020, Ahlsell made a
SEK900 million drawdown on the RCF to secure liquidity during the
coronavirus crisis.

The debt maturity profile is concentrated to 2026 (first-lien term
loan) and 2027 (second-lien term loan), but it views refinancing
risk as manageable due to the long-term maturities.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).



===========
T U R K E Y
===========

BURSA METROPOLITAN: Fitch Affirms LT IDR at BB-, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Bursa Metropolitan Municipality's
Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings at
'BB-' with Stable Outlooks.

The affirmation reflects Fitch's expectations that Bursa will
maintain its operating performance although it may be adversely
affected by rising costs and weaker growth prospects in 2020-2021
underpinned by the coronavirus pandemic. Fitch expects Bursa to
continue with its cost discipline for generating a robust operating
balance, which will help the city's primary debt sustainability
ratio (debt to operating balance) to remain below 5x over the
medium term.

Fitch's ratings are forward-looking in nature, and Fitch will
monitor developments in the public sector for coronavirus pandemic
severity and duration, and incorporate revised base- and
rating-case qualitative and quantitative inputs based on
performance expectations and assessment of key risks.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Revenue Robustness (Weaker)

Bursa benefits from a well industrialized local economy heavily
based on the automotive industry with a strong export-oriented
nature. Although this results in a strong and buoyant tax base, it
also exposes the tax base to cyclicality. Fitch's Weaker assessment
results from an expected higher volatility in the tax revenue
growth prospects in 2020-2021, which will be triggered by the
Coronavirus pandemic. However, Fitch expects the stable revenue
growth prospect to restored to a nominal growth rate of about 14.0%
based on the inflation expectations of 10.5% over the medium term.

The majority of Bursa's operating revenue stems from its respective
shares of the nationally collected and allocated tax revenues
attributable to the city's local performance. These remained stable
and constituted almost 59% of operating revenue in 2019. The next
largest revenue item is current transfers, comprising tax revenue
allocated by the central government according to population and
area, at 20.5% followed by charges and fees at high of 19.5% of its
total operating revenue.

Revenue Adjustability (Weaker)

Bursa's ability to generate additional revenues is constrained by
the nationally predefined tax rates. Cities have very limited
rate-setting power over own local taxes such as property tax,
natural gas and electricity consumption tax, advertisement and
promotion, fire insurance and entertainment providing little or no
leeway to absorb an unexpected fall in revenue.

Expenditure Sustainability (Midrange)

Fitch expects Bursa's cost control to remain moderate in the
midterm and contribute for generating robust operating margins
close to 30%. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, Fitch expects higher
costs in the provision of services in the complementary public
health issues, social aid and welfare, and environmental protection
in 2020-2021, which Fitch expects to ease over the midterm. Bursa
has a strong investment profile; with moderately cyclical to
countercyclical responsibilities concentrated in the provision
urban infrastructure investments; allowing the city maintain
control over its total expenditure. At end 2019, Bursa accordingly
reduced its capex below 30% of total expenditure at 28.50%, well
below its five-year average of 47%, to maintain its cost control.

Expenditure Adjustability (Midrange)

Fitch has reassessed Expenditure Adjustability for Bursa to
'Midrange' from 'Weaker' amid international peers analysis showing
a low share of inflexible costs accounting for less than 70% on
average of its total expenditure, as the city's infrastructure
investments can be cut down or postponed because the level of
existing investments is moderate and the investments are
self-financed. Stronger flexibility in the city's expenditure
profile is counterbalanced by the weak track record of balanced
budget, due to large swings in capex realizations

Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness (Weaker)

Bursa's debt management policy has significant risks, as a moderate
share of its total debt, 27.8% at -end 2019 is in euros and
unhedged, exposing the city to significant FX risk. At end-2019,
the Turkish lira had depreciated by 10.26% yoy against the euro,
increasing total debt by TRY73 million

The city's debt has an amortizing structure with a relatively short
weighted average maturity of total debt at 4.2 years, and with 19%
of debt maturing within one year, which increases refinancing
pressure. Bursa's debt consists of solely bank loans, with 85% of
its total debt are at fixed interest rate, mitigating interest rate
risk. The city is not exposed to material off balance sheet risks.

Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility (Weaker)

At end- 2019 Bursa's year end cash remained weak at TRY11 million
(2018: TRY9 million) and was fully earmarked for the payable's
settlement. Fitch estimates that over the rating case Bursa's cash
will be restricted due to payables. However, Bursa has moderate
access to international financial markets with main lenders being
domestic banks such as state-owned banks Vakifbank, Halkbank,
Ziraat Bank and Vakif Katilim Bank as well as the commercial banks
such as Denizbank, Isbank and Anadolu Bank.

Debt Sustainability Assessment: 'aa'

Under Fitch's stressed rating case for 2020-2024 due to the
coronavirus pandemic, Bursa's expected payback ratio to remain
below five years, translating to 'aaa' debt sustainability, which
it overrides to 'aa' due to a weaker debt service coverage.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Weaker' risk profile combined with 'aa' debt sustainability leads
to a Standalone Credit Profile in the 'bb' category. With a debt
service coverage below 1 and the debt burden stabilizing at about
110% compared with its national and international peers in the same
rating category, the SCP notch specific is positioned at the mean
bound of the category at 'bb' and compressed to a 'BB-'IDR in
application of the sovereign cap (BB-/ Stable). In its assessment,
Fitch does not apply extraordinary support from upper-tier
government or asymmetric risk,

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's rating case scenario is a "through-the-cycle" scenario,
which incorporates a combination of revenue, cost and financial
risk stresses. It is based on the 2015-2019 figures and 2020-2024
projected ratios.

The key assumptions for the scenario in 2020-2024 include:

  - Tax revenue nominal growth rate at CAGR 15.2%

  - Operating expenditure growth rate at CAGR 14.2%

Fitch's rating case envisages the following stress compared with
the base case:

  - Stress on the tax revenue growth rate by- 1.0% yoy

  - Stress on the opex growth rate by +1.4% yoy

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

An upgrade of Turkey's IDRs would lead to an upgrade of Bursa

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

A downgrade of Turkey's IDRs would lead to a downgrade of Bursa as
would a debt service coverage ratio below 1 on a sustained basis.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of Public Finance issuers have a best-case rating upgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a
three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three
years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit
ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best-
and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).

ISTANBUL METROPOLITAN: Fitch Affirms LT IDR at BB-, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality's
Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings at
'BB-' with Stable Outlooks.

The affirmation reflects Fitch's expectations that Istanbul's
credit metrics will remain robust, although its operating
performance may be depressed by rising costs due to the coronavirus
pandemic. Istanbul's debt sustainability ratios, or debt-to
operating balance, are expected to remain below 5x over 2020-24
with debt service coverage ratio gradually improving above 1x in
the medium term.

Fitch's ratings are forward-looking in nature, and Fitch will
monitor developments in the public sector for coronavirus pandemic
severity and duration, and incorporate revised base- and
rating-case qualitative and quantitative inputs based on
performance expectations and assessment of key risks.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Revenue Robustness (Midrange):

Fitch has revised Revenue Robustness for Istanbul to Midrange from
Weaker based on the expected sound growth rate of Istanbul's tax
revenue over the medium term, although it may be depressed in
2020-2021 because of the coronavirus pandemic. Istanbul has a
well-diversified local economy with a value-added contribution to
the national economy far above the national average (contributional
share to national GDP is consistently at 30%), reflecting that is
the economic and financial hub of the country.

Istanbul's diversified tax revenue base leads to low volatility.
This makes it resilient to economic downturns, which Fitch expects
to continue over the forecast horizon 2020-2024.

Istanbul's revenue is mainly composed of its respective share of
tax revenues collected within its boundaries and redistributed by
the central government according to a predefined formula, On
average these shared tax revenues accounted for about 80% of its
operating revenue in 2014-2019 This is followed by charges and fees
(9.3%) and the city's other own local taxes for 1% of its operating
revenue. Intergovernmental transfers from the central government
make up about 12% of its operating revenue, a fairly low share
compared with national peers due to the city's high socio-economic
wealth indicators with GDP per capita at USD16,624.

Revenue Adjustability (Weaker)

Istanbul's ability to generate additional revenues is constrained
by the nationally predefined tax rates. Cities have very limited
rate-setting power over own local taxes such as property tax,
natural gas and electricity consumption tax, advertisement and
promotion, fire insurance and entertainment providing little or no
leeway to absorb an unexpected fall in revenue.

Expenditure Sustainability (Midrange)

Fitch expects Istanbul's cost control in the medium term to
contribute to maintaining sound operating balances and margins,
although increased spending responsibilities due to the coronavirus
pandemic will push higher the cost growth in 2020-2021. Istanbul
spending is heavily skewed towards urban infrastructure
investments. Accordingly, the main drivers of total spending are
capex (41.8% of total expenditure) followed by purchase of goods
and services (32%) and staff costs (7.9%) at end-2019. The
moderately cyclical to countercyclical nature of capex allows the
city to resize total expenditure growth.

Expenditure Adjustability (Midrange)

Fitch has re-assessed Expenditure Adjustability for Istanbul to
'Midrange' from 'Weaker' amid international peer analysis showing
the low share of inflexible costs, accounting for less than 70% on
average of its total expenditure, as the city's infrastructure
investments can be cut or postponed, also because of the relatively
good level of existing socio-economic infrastructure . Spending
flexibility is somewhat counterbalanced by the weak track record of
balanced budget due to large swings in capex realizations, although
this had improved at end 2019.

Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness (Weaker):

Istanbul's debt management policy inherits significant risks, as
nearly 70% of its total debt is in euros and unhedged, exposing the
city to significant FX risk. At end-2019, the Turkish lira had
depreciated by 10.26% yoy against the euro, increasing total debt
by TRY1.16 billion or 8.6%.

The city's debt consists only of bank loans and is amortizing. The
weighted average maturity of its total debt is relatively short at
4.6 years, with subsequent refinancing pressure as nearly 20% of
debt stock comes due year on year. In addition, as the majority of
bank loans bear a floating rate of interest, the city is exposed to
interest rate risk. This risk is partly mitigated as the majority
of floating rate loans are in euros, which Fitch does not expect to
increase due to the low interest rate environment. The city is not
exposed to material off balance sheet risks

Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility (Midrange).

Fitch has revised city's liability and liquidity flexibility to
Midrange from Weaker as Istanbul demonstrates a good track record
of accessing national and international lenders ranging from
multilaterals such as EIB, EBRD, World bank, IFC, AFD, KfW, to
commercial banks such as Deutsche Bank, ING, Societe Generale, BNP
Paribas, Credit Agricole and Intesa Sanpaolo SPA. In case of
liquidity needs, the city has also committed bank lines from
domestic lenders amounting to TRY3.4 billion or nearly 20% of its
total revenue.

At end-2019 Istanbul's year-end cash improved to TRY594.2 million
from 2018 TRY102.9 million. However, Fitch deems liquidity as fully
earmarked for the payable settlement, which Fitch estimates will
remain the case over the rating case horizon.

Debt Sustainability Assessment: 'aa'

Under the Fitch's rating case for 2020-2024, which includes
additional stress due to the coronavirus pandemic, Istanbul will
maintain a payback ratio or debt-to-operating balance, below five
years. Fitch has lowered its debt sustainability assessment to the
'aa' category from 'aaa' due to a debt service coverage ratio below
1x in 2020-2021. However, Fitch expects this to improve gradually
over the medium term, due to easing of the depressed operating
balances/margins triggered by the coronavirus crisis.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Fitch has raised Istanbul's risk profile to 'Low Midrange' from
'Weaker' reflecting an assessment of improved resiliency of the
operating balance, which Fitch expects not to shrink below TRY5
billion over the medium term, as well as a lower risk of debt
liabilities reaching above TRY5.5 billion.

Low Midrange risk profile combined with 'aa' debt sustainability
leads to a Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) in the 'bbb' category.
With debt service coverage gradually just above 1x and debt burden
on average at 131% compared with its national and international
peers in the same rating category, the notch-specific SCP is
positioned at the lower bound of the category at 'bbb-' and
compressed to "BB-" IDR in application of the sovereign cap (BB-/
Stable). In its assessment Fitch does not apply extraordinary
support from the upper-tier government or asymmetric risk.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's rating case scenario is a "through-the-cycle" scenario,
which incorporates a combination of revenue, cost and financial
risk stresses. It is based on the 2015-2019 figures and 2020-2024
projected ratios.

The key assumptions for the scenario in 2020-2024 include:

  - Tax revenue nominal growth rate at CAGR 15.7%

  - Operating expenditure growth rate at CAGR 15.7%

Fitch's rating case envisages the following stress compared with
the base case:

  - Stress on the tax revenue growth rate by- 0.7% yoy

  - Stress on the opex growth rate by +1.4% yoy

  - Annual depreciation of Turkish lira against a basket of major
currencies by 10%yoy on average

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

An upgrade of Turkey's IDRs would lead to an upgrade of Istanbul

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

A downgrade of Turkey's IDRs would lead to a downgrade of Istanbul

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of Public Finance issuers have a best-case rating upgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a
three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three
years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit
ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best-
and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).

IZMIR METROPOLITAN: Fitch Affirms LT IDRs at 'BB-', Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Izmir Metropolitan Municipality's
Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings at
'BB- ' with Stable Outlooks.

The affirmation reflects Fitch's expectations that Izmir will
maintain its strong operating performance over the medium term,
although it will be depressed by near-term upside risks to its cost
structure and weakened operating environment from the coronavirus
pandemic. However, compared with its national peers Izmir has
stronger financial headroom, which will support its debt
sustainability ratios remaining strong with a payback ratio well
below 5x and coverage ratio above 2x.

Fitch's ratings are forward-looking in nature, and Fitch will
monitor developments in the public sector for coronavirus pandemic
severity and duration, and incorporate revised base- and
rating-case qualitative and quantitative inputs based on
performance expectations and assessment of key risks.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Revenue Robustness (Midrange)

Fitch has revised Revenue Robustness for Izmir to Midrange from
Weaker based on the stable and sound growth prospects of the city's
tax revenue base of about 4% over the medium term. Izmir has a
well-diversified buoyant local economy as the economic hub on the
Aegean cost and third largest contributor to national GDP, making
it resilient to economic downturns. This is reflected in the city's
less volatile, diversified and strong tax revenue base,
safeguarding sustainable revenue growth prospects.

Izmir's revenue is mainly composed of its respective share of tax
revenues collected within its boundaries and redistributed by the
central government according to a predefined formula,. On average
these shared tax revenues accounted for about 80% of its operating
revenue in 2014-2019. This is followed by charges and fees (8.7%)
and the city's own local taxes by less than 1% of its operating
revenue. Intergovernmental transfers make for about 11% of its
operating revenue, which is fairly low compared with its national
peers, due to the city's high socio economic wealth indicators with
GDP per capita at USD 11,505.

Revenue Adjustability (Weaker)

Izmir's ability to generate additional revenue source is
constrained by the nationally predefined tax rates.; Ccities have
very limited rate-setting power over own local taxes such as
property tax, natural gas and electricity consumption tax,
advertisement and promotion, fire insurance and entertainment
providing little or no leeway to absorb unexpected fall in
revenue.

Expenditure Sustainability ( Midrange)

Fitch expects Izmir's operating margins to remain sound in the
medium term , due to moderate cost control.. However, increased
spending responsibilities due to the coronavirus pandemic will
create upside risks to cost control in 2020-2021, which Fitch
expects to ease after 2021. As the third-largest city in Turkey by
population. Izmir has a strong investment profile, with
responsibilities mainly concentrated in the provision urban
infrastructure investments; with moderately cyclical to
countercyclical nature, allowing the city to maintain control over
total expenditure growth. Accordingly, the main drivers of total
spending are capex (49.7% of total expenditure) followed by
purchase of goods and services (32%) and staff costs (7.9%) at
end-2019.

Expenditure Adjustability (Midrange)

Fitch has re-assessed Expenditure Adjustability for Izmir to
'Midrange' from 'Weaker' based on the low share of inflexible costs
accounting for less than 70% on average of its total expenditure,
as the city's infrastructure investments can be cut or postponed as
existing investments are moderate and investments are
self-financed. Stronger flexibility in its expenditure profile is
counterbalanced by the weak track record of balanced budget.

Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness (Weaker)

Izmir's debt management policy has significant risks, as a
substantial share of its total debt, 77.6% at -end 2019 is in euros
and unhedged, exposing the city to significant FX risk. At
end-2019, the Turkish lira had depreciated by 10.26% yoy against
the euro, increasing total debt by TRY242.7 million or 8.6%.

The city's debt has an amortising structure with a moderate
weighted average maturity of its total debt at 4.5 years. However,
17% of its debt matures within one year increasing refinancing
pressure. Izmir's debt consists of solely bank loans with the
majority at fixed interest rate, mitigating interest rate risk. The
city is not exposed to material off balance sheet risks.

Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness (Weaker)

At end- 2019 Izmir's year end cash improved from 2018 but was fully
earmarked for the payable's settlement. Fitch estimates over the
rating case Izmir's cash will be restricted due to payables.
However, Izmir has good access to a broad range of multilateral
domestic and international lenders such as EIB, EBRD, AFD; MIGA,
IFC and domestic banks such as Vakifbank, Vakif Katilim Bank,
Türkiye Finans Katilim Bankasi, Fibabanka and Denizbank, which the
city could tap in case of liquidity needs.

Debt Sustainability Assessment: 'aaa'

Under Fitch's stressed rating case for 2020-2024 due to the
coronavirus pandemic, Izmir will maintain its payback ratio strong
well below five years, with strong debt service coverage above 2x
and low debt burden translating into a debt sustainability
assessment of 'aaa'.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

A 'Weaker' risk profile combined with 'aaa' debt sustainability
leads to a Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) in the 'bbb' category.
With debt service coverage above 2 and debt burden less than 100%
compared with its national and international peers in the same
rating category the notch-specific SCP is positioned at the mean
bound of the category at 'bbb' and compressed to "BB-" IDR in
application of the sovereign cap (BB-/Stable). In its assessment
Fitch does not apply extraordinary support from the upper- tier
government or asymmetric risk.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's rating case scenario is a "through-the-cycle" scenario,
which incorporates a combination of revenue, cost and financial
risk stresses. It is based on the 2015-2019 figures and 2020-2024
projected ratios.

The key assumptions for the scenario in 2020-2024 include:

  - Tax revenue nominal growth rate at CAGR 14.5%

  - Operating expenditure growth rate at CAGR 16.7%

Fitch's rating case envisages the following stress compared with
the base case:

  - Stress on the tax revenue growth rate by- 1.0% yoy

  - Stress on the opex growth rate by +1.4% yoy

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

An upgrade of Turkey's IDRs would lead to an upgrade of Izmir

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

A downgrade of Turkey's IDRs would lead to a downgrade of Izmir

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO
Best/Worst Case Rating Scenarios - Public Finance:

Ratings of Public Finance issuers have a best-case rating upgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a
three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three
years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit
ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best-
and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).

MANISA METROPOLITAN: Fitch Affirms LT IDR at BB-, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Manisa Metropolitan Municipality's
Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings at
'BB- 'with Stable Outlooks.

The affirmation reflects Fitch's expectations that Manisa will
maintain its operating performance, although it may be adversely
affected by rising costs and weaker growth prospects in 2020-2021
underpinned by the coronavirus pandemic. Fitch expects Manisa to
continue its cost discipline for generating a stable operating
balance over the medium term, which will support the city's primary
debt sustainability (debt to operating balance ratio) remaining
below 5x.

Fitch's ratings are forward-looking in nature, and Fitch will
monitor developments in the public sector for coronavirus pandemic
severity and duration, and incorporate revised base- and
rating-case qualitative and quantitative inputs based on
performance expectations and assessment of key risks.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Revenue Robustness (Weaker)

The Weaker assessment results from the expected adverse effects of
the negative operating environment on Manisa's tax revenue growth
prospects in 2020-2021, reflecting the coronavirus pandemic. Fitch
expects tax revenue to return to a nominal growth rate of about
13.7% based on inflation expectations of 10.5% over the medium
term. Manisa's tax base is diversified and moderate in size with
fairly robust growth prospects, based on the industrialised local
economy, which leads to a robust tax revenue stream underlined by
moderate volatility.

Revenue is largely composed of the city's share of tax revenue
collected within its boundaries and allocated by the central
government (59.5% of total operating revenue). Another important
revenue source is transfers from the central government, which
contributed 24% of operating revenue, followed by charges and fees
(17%) at end-2019.

Revenue Adjustability (Weaker)

Manisa's ability to generate additional revenues is constrained by
nationally predefined tax rates. Cities have very limited
rate-setting power over own local taxes such as property tax,
natural gas and electricity consumption tax, advertisement and
promotion, fire insurance and entertainment providing little or no
leeway to absorb an unexpected fall in revenue.

Expenditure Sustainability (Midrange)

Fitch expects Manisa to generate sound operating margins close to
40% based on the expected cost control. However, increased spending
responsibilities in the provision of services in the complementary
public health issues, social aid and welfare, and environmental
protection in 2020-2021 due to coronavirus epidemic would cause
upside risks to costs, by depressing its operating margins. Fitch
expects cost increases to ease after 2021.

After becoming a metropolitan city in 2014, Manisa has
significantly increased its capex investments, averaging 49% of
total expenditure with moderately cyclical to countercyclical
responsibilities focused on the provision urban infrastructure
investments, similar to other Turkish large metropolitan
municipalities. The nature of countercyclical responsibilities
provides the city with spending flexibility. Accordingly, in 2019
city reduced its total expenditure ratio to 13.9% from 50.0% in
2018.

Expenditure Adjustability (Midrange)

Fitch has re-assessed Expenditure Adjustability for Manisa to
'Midrange' from 'Weaker' due to international peers analysis on the
low share of inflexible costs, accounting for less than 70% on
average of its total expenditure, as the city's infrastructure
investments can be cut or postponed as existing investments are
moderate and investments are self-financed. Greater flexibility in
the city expenditure profile is counterbalanced by the weak track
record of balanced budget, which Fitch expects to improve and could
lead to a reassessment of this key risk factor.

Liabilities and Liquidity Robustness (Weaker)

The city's debt has an amortising structure. However, a shorter
weighted average maturity of its total debt at 3.2 years, and a
significant share of its debt at 19% maturing within one year
increases refinancing pressure, which Fitch expects to be mitigated
by the city's undrawn committed lines. Manisa's debt consists of
solely bank loans with a majority of its total debt at fixed
interest rate, mitigating interest rate risk. The city is not
exposed to material off balance sheet risks. Compared with its
national peers, Manisa has negligible unhedged FX risk with a euro
denominated loan accounting for only 2.3% of its total.

Liabilities and Liquidity Flexibility (Weaker)

At end-2019, Manisa's year-end cash remained weak, covering less
than 1x its debt servicing. In Turkey, LRGs do not benefit from
treasury lines or cash pooling on a national level.

Manisa has moderate access to international financial markets, with
its main lenders being state owned domestic banks such as Halkbank,
Ziraat Bank and the Turkish Municipal Bank ILBANK A.S. with one
international lender Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB). The
city's committed bank lines accounted for TRY388 million at end
2019, which it could tap for liquidity.

Debt Sustainability Assessment: 'aa'

Under Fitch's stressed rating case for 2020-2024 due to the
coronavirus pandemic, Manisa continues to maintain its payback
ratio below five years, which translates to a 'aaa' debt
sustainability that it overrides to 'aa' due to a weaker debt
service coverage.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

A Weaker risk profile combined with 'aa' debt sustainability leads
to a Standalone Credit Profile in the 'bb' category. With debt
service coverage improving above 1 and debt burden stabilizing at
100% compared with its national and international peers in the same
rating category, the notch specific SCP is positioned at the upper
bound of the category at 'bb+' and compressed to 'BB-'IDR in
application of the sovereign cap (BB-/ Stable).. In its assessment
Fitch does not apply extraordinary support from the upper- tier
government or asymmetric risk,

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's rating case scenario is a "through-the-cycle" scenario,
which incorporates a combination of revenue, cost and financial
risk stresses. It is based on the 2015-2019 figures and 2020-2024
projected ratios.

The key assumptions for the scenario in 2020-2024 include:

  - Tax revenue nominal growth rate at CAGR 14.9%

  - Operating expenditure growth rate at CAGR 12.4%

Fitch's rating case envisages the following stress compared with
the base case:

  - Stress on the tax revenue growth rate by- 1.2% yoy

  - Stress on the opex growth rate by +2% yoy

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action/Upgrade:

An upgrade of Turkey's IDRs would lead to an upgrade of Manisa

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action/Downgrade:

A downgrade of Turkey's IDRs would lead to a downgrade of Manisa as
would a debt Service coverage ratio) below 1 on a sustained basis.

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Ratings of Public Finance issuers have a best-case rating upgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a positive direction) of three notches over a
three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of three notches over three
years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit
ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best-
and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).



===========================
U N I T E D   K I N G D O M
===========================

BBD BIDCO: S&P Lowers Ratings to 'B-', Outlook Negative
-------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its ratings on U.K.-based BBD Bidco (BCA
Marketplace Ltd.) and its debt to 'B-' from 'B'. The '3' recovery
rating is unchanged, reflecting its expectation of meaningful
recovery prospects (50%-70%; rounded estimate: 55%) in the event of
a payment default.

The COVID-19 pandemic will depress demand for both new and used
cars in 2020 and could materially affect the group's financial
results and weigh on credit quality--at least in the near term.  
To curb the spread of COVID-19, particularly in Europe, governments
have locked down entire cities or countries. BCA generates most of
its revenue from remarketing and auctions, which are primarily
dependent on used car churn. Because of the lockdown in most of
BCA's core markets, S&P expects a material decrease in demand from
car dealers.

S&P said, "Consequently, we expect that the group's revenue will be
materially lower--at least in the short term--until the pandemic
abates. On the other hand, in previous economic downturns, BCA was
able to react quickly to a sudden drop in demand by limiting
capital expenditure (capex) and merger and acquisition spending.
BCA generates most of its sales and more than 75% of its revenue in
the U.K., with the balance coming from other European countries. We
therefore consider BCA to be more highly exposed to the U.K.
government's strategy to contain COVID-19 than some of its rated
peers.

"We think BCA could reduce costs, but still foresee significant
pressure on profitability and credit metrics.  We forecast a
decline in remarketing revenue of more than 10% for 2020.
Additionally, in response to falling demand, most global auto
manufacturers (original equipment manufacturers [OEMs]) have
announced production shutdowns at most of their plants in Europe
and in the U.S., and have switched to liquidity protection mode. We
therefore also forecast a 15%-20% decline in volumes in BCA's
automotive services division, in line with our new light vehicle
sales forecast in "COVID-19 Will Batter Global Auto Sales And
Credit Quality," published on March 23, 2020. The overall effect
will be a 3.4% decline in revenue for 2020.

"However, we think that BCA could reduce costs through various
government support measures, and understand that the company has
furloughed over 80% of its U.K. employees. Despite these measures,
we expect margins to be around to 5%-6% and S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA of almost 8.0x-8.5x in 2020, from
our previous expectation of slight deleveraging toward 7.0x-7.5x.
Given the expected delay in deleveraging, we now view BCA's
adjusted leverage as consummate with a 'B-' rating."

BCA's ability to rapidly reduce investment to preserve liquidity is
key to its ability to weather the crisis.  S&P said, "For the
period of subdued demand, we expect that BCA will protect cash and
cut costs as much as possible through the furlough of employees and
shutdown of activities. Despite this, we expect BCA to burn about
GBP20 million-GBP30 million of cash for each month under the
current status quo. The company has a current cash balance of
GBP216 million after fully drawing its GBP155 million revolving
credit facility, meaning it has several months' worth of liquidity
to cover a period of very low demand. By drawing on its RCF, BCA
has triggered the testing of the springing covenant, as of
end-September 2020, at a total senior secured net leverage of
9.25x. We expect BCA to pass the covenant tests, based on our
current assumptions, however if the pandemic lasts for longer than
expected, both covenant and liquidity pressures could lead us to
consider a default likely."

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors relevant to the
rating action:

-- Health and safety

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak.  

Some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak about
midyear, and we are using this assumption in assessing the economic
and credit implications. We believe the measures adopted to contain
COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession. As the
situation evolves, S&P will update its assumptions and estimates
accordingly.

The negative outlook indicates that S&P sees a risk of liquidity
and covenant pressures as a result of COVID-19.

S&P said, "We could lower the ratings on BCA if the impact of
COVID-19 were to result in liquidity sources over uses declining
below 1.2x or if total senior secured net leverage was to begin to
approach 9.25x, leading us to believe a covenant breach was likely.
We would also lower the rating if funds from operations (FFO) cash
interest coverage were to fall below 1.5x, or we thought the
capital structure was unsustainable in the medium term.

"We could revise the outlook to stable if the group maintains
adequate liquidity with sources over uses being above 1.2x,
adjusted debt to EBITDA tending toward 7.5x, and adjusted FFO to
debt increasing to around 8%."


DEBENHAMS PLC: Goes Into Administration for Second Time
-------------------------------------------------------
James Davey at Reuters reports that British department store group
Debenhams, whose 142 UK stores have been shuttered by the
coronavirus emergency, has fallen into administration for the
second time in a year, it said on April 9.

The group said it had entered administration to protect its UK
business from the threat of legal action that could have pushed it
into liquidation, Reuters relates.

It added that it anticipated the UK administrators from FRP
Advisory would appoint a liquidator to the 11-store Ireland
business, Reuters discloses.




DEBENHAMS RETAIL: To Go Into Liquidation, 11 Stores Face Closure
----------------------------------------------------------------
Thejournal.ie reports that Debenhams has told staff that the
company is to go into liquidation and will not be reopening its 11
Irish stores after the Covid-19 emergency.

The Mandate Trade Union has said this will mean the loss of almost
2,000 jobs across the country, Thejournal.ie relates.

The company operates four stores in Dublin, two in Cork and others
in Galway, Limerick, Newbridge, Tralee and Waterford.

In a statement on April 9, Debenhams, as cited by Thejournal.ie,
said the Republic of Ireland retail operations had trading
challenges which were exacerbated by the impact of Covid-19 and
that it has already suspended trading in Irish stores, the majority
of which are not now expected to reopen.

The retailer said customers will still be able to shop online,
Thejournal.ie notes.

Debenhams in Ireland operates under a separate company, Debenhams
Retail (Ireland) Ltd, following an examinership process in the
Republic of Ireland in 2016.

Under that process, the vast majority of the company's 1,400
directly employed staff, some 500 concession staff and 300 cosmetic
staff were to be retained, Thejournal.ie discloses.

The company has suspended trading due to the Covid-19 pandemic and
Irish staff have now been informed in a letter that "these stores
are not expected to reopen", Thejournal.ie relays.


DRAX GROUP: Fitch Affirms LT IDR at BB+, Outlook Stable
-------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed Drax Group Holdings Limited's Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating at 'BB+' with a Stable Outlook and senior
secured notes issued by Drax Finco plc at 'BB+'.

The affirmation reflects its expectation of positive free cash flow
generation in the absence of strategic growth projects, underpinned
by regulatory support, hedging of merchant price risk and increased
contribution to quasi-regulated EBITDA on reinstatement of the UK
capacity market. However, ahead of any regulatory support for
carbon capture, continued biomass cost reduction represents a more
visible route to maintaining leverage within target of net debt/
EBITDA of 2x, set on annual basis.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Regulatory Support Reinstated: The reinstatement of the capacity
market raises quasi-regulated EBITDA from 60% to around 80% of
Group EBITDA, improving visibility. In addition, the government has
recently announced a Carbon Capture and Storage Infrastructure Fund
to establish CCS in at least two UK sites, the first by the
mid-2020s, most likely with a CFD or guaranteed power price for a
10-15-year period, to be finalized later this year. There are
technical risks but sustained financial support would likely
resemble a CFD for biomass, reducing the risk profile. Although
there are several scenarios for CCS, this subsidy solution would
effectively extend the useful life of Drax Power Station at 60% of
group generation capacity some 10-15 years beyond the expiry of
subsidies in March 2027.

Biomass Cost Reduction: This is becoming increasingly important as
an alternative to CCS by expanding the pellets business with
potential offtake agreements in Asia. Also, there is substantially
higher visibility to biomass cost reduction than potential
regulatory support for CCS, and a greater need in view of weak
power prices and Sterling/ Dollar exchange rate. Drax has set a
target of lowering unit costs to GBP50/ MWh by 2027 against GBP75/
MWh currently, investing organically and by acquisition up to
GBP700 million to raise annual self-supply in pellets from around
2mt to 5mt. Drax, which achieved a 3% reduction in US self-supply
pellet cost in 2019, has committed plans and capex for further
savings.

Merchant Price Risk: Around 20% of average gross margin over
2020-23 is exposed to wholesale price risk (directly and
indirectly) under the Renewables Obligation RO scheme, with
potential vulnerability to price volatility and an impact on cash
flows. At 12 February, Drax had sold forward 16 TWh of 2020 output
at GBP54/ MWh and 8.4TWh at GBP50-51/MWh, giving visibility to the
majority of RO and hydro income in 2021. With respect to current UK
forwards, the price impact of COVID-19 is greater in 2020-21, where
Drax is largely hedged, but also it also affects its estimates for
2022-23, for which latest forwards are GBP43-44/MWh. Fitch believes
that electricity price trend is less relevant to the rating
compared with growth in quasi-regulated system support revenue
streams, reducing sensitivity to uncontracted business.

Free Cash Flow Generation: With no strategic growth projects in the
rating case, free cash flow remains strong despite the impact of
the planned CFD outage in 2021. Drax continues to target a net
debt/ EBITDA of 2x, which Fitch believes is achievable. Drax has
not cancelled the shares from the GBP50 million buyback in 2018-19
and sees buybacks as a more flexible route to returning cash to
shareholders than dividends. Fitch expects the Board to take
account of contracted cash flows, less predictable cash flows from
the commodity based business and future investment opportunities in
defining dividend policy. If there is a build-up of capital, the
Board will consider the most appropriate means of returning this to
shareholders.

ESG Influence: Drax has an ESG Relevance Score of '4' for EFM
Energy & Fuel Management. This reflects supply risk in the
company's biomass supply chain, potentially impacting capacity
utilization and cash flows. This has a negative impact on the
credit profile, and is relevant to the rating in conjunction with
other factors.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Drax has substantially stronger credit metrics, a more conservative
financial policy than, and a size advantage over, Energia Group
Limited (B+/ Stable). Fitch estimates average FFO adjusted net
leverage of 2.3x at Drax compared with 3.5-4.0x at Energia for
FY20-21. Drax also has substantially stronger credit metrics than
SSE plc (BBB/Stable), but this is largely offset by SSE's presence
in regulated grids at 55% of EBITDA and widely diversified earnings
as broadest based energy company in the UK.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - Output projections are as per management, including a planned
CFD unit outage in 2021

  - Power price assumptions for uncontracted ROC volumes are based
on the Bloomberg forward curve.

  - UK RPI assumed at 2.2% in 2020, 2.0% in 2021 and 2.5%
thereafter

  - Capacity Market and Ancillary Services revenues are as per
management

  - Supply margins expected to recover to 1.2% by 2021-22

  - No capex or EBITDA related to any strategic growth projects

  - Dividend projections are based on guidance

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive
Rating Action:

  - Sustainably high proportion of contracted quasi-regulated
EBITDA, at least in line with the currently expected level

  - Based on the reinstatement of the capacity market and increase
in quasi-regulated EBITDA, FFO net leverage sustainably below 1.8x
against 1.5x previously

Factors That Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative
Rating Action:

  - FFO net leverage sustainably above 2.8x against 2.5x
previously

  - A change to the regulatory framework with a material negative
impact on profitability and cash flow

  - Major debt-funded acquisition

BEST/WORST CASE RATING SCENARIO

Best/Worst Case Rating Scenarios Non-Financial Corporate:

Ratings of Non-Financial Corporate issuers have a best-case rating
upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating
transitions, measured in a positive direction) of three notches
over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade
scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions,
measured in a negative direction) of four notches over three years.
The complete span of best and worst-case scenario credit ratings
for all rating categories ranges from 'AAA' to 'D'. Best- and
worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical
performance.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Strong Liquidity: At December 31, 2019, cash and cash equivalents
were GBP404 million. The company also has access to an unused
GBP350 million RCF due in April 2021 with a one-year extension
option. The RCF includes an index linked term loan of GBP35
million. In view of the modest capex and working capital
requirements, Fitch expects Drax to be substantially FCF positive.
The company has no debt maturities in 2020, GBP38m in 2021 and
GBP475m in 2022.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF
RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are
described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Drax Group Holdings Limited: 4; Energy Management: 4 In view of
Drax's recent announcement of an exit from coal generation in 2021,
Fitch has changed one of the '4' score for GHG Emissions and Air
Quality to '3'. However, the '4' score for Energy and Fuel
Management reflects biomass supply chain risk from the US to the
UK. This remains central to the rating given that Drax intends to
raise pellet volumes from around 2mt to 5mt in a bid to reduce unit
costs ahead of the end of biomass support in 2027.

ELIZABETH FINANCE 2018: S&P Cuts Class E Notes Rating to 'B (sf)'
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its credit ratings on all classes of
notes in Elizabeth Finance 2018 DAC.

Rating Rationale

The downgrades reflect the updated market valuation, dated Jan. 31,
2020, for the Maroon loan, which is secured by three U.K. shopping
centers. The three properties have been valued at GBP68.9 million,
which is lower than our S&P value at closing of GBP82.0 million. As
a result, S&P has constrained its recovery value for the properties
securing the Maroon loan to this lower value.

While COVID-19 may have an accelerated effect on performance
declines for properties with retail exposure, the downgrades do not
specifically address the outbreak of the virus.

Transaction overview

Elizabeth Finance is a true sale securitization of two loans that
closed in August 2018. The current balance on the larger one, the
Maroon loan, is currently GBP66.4 million. It is secured by three
regional town center shopping malls in the U.K. Two of the
properties are in England, and one is in Scotland. The second loan,
the MCR loan, has a current balance of GBP20.8 million, and is
secured on a single office property in Manchester, England.

In May 2019, there was a loan event of default in relation to the
Maroon loan following the January 2019 valuation. Under the loan
agreement, the borrower needs to maintain a loan-to-value (LTV)
ratio of 75% or less. The updated 2019 valuation resulted in the
LTV increasing to 77%. As a result, the mezzanine lender made a
cure payment of GBP1.1 million in July 2019, bringing down the LTV
to below 75%. The cure payment was posted to the cure account and
the cash trap was triggered. On the January 2020 interest payment
date, the cash manager applied GBP2.1 million from the cure account
and cash trap account to prepay the loan and, in turn, the notes.

With the updated January 2020 market valuation of GBP68.9 million,
the Maroon loan LTV has now increased to 96% and the loan is in
breach of the LTV covenant again.

Credit evaluation

Maroon loan.  At closing, S&P considered the Maroon loan
portfolio's S&P sustainable cash flow to be GBP7.7 million and the
sustainable value to be GBP82.0 million. As of fourth-quarter 2019,
the servicer reported the net operating income (NOI) to be GBP8.4
million, which is still above its S&P sustainable net cash flow of
GBP7.7 million.

The updated January 2020 market valuation of GBP68.9 million
reflects a GBP17.1 million decrease from the January 2019
valuation. The 2020 valuation reflects a drop in net income and
market rents. However, there is also an increase in the equivalent
yield by approximately 100 basis points for two of the three
properties, which is a contributor to the decrease in the
valuation.

Although S&P does not rely on point-in-time market valuations, its
methodology recognizes that the existence of a market value that is
lower than our S&P Global value would likely constrain recoveries
given that any potential buyer is unlikely to pay in excess of the
market value. S&P has therefore used the GBP68.9 million as its S&P
Global alternative value in our analysis.

MCR loan.  At closing, S&P considered the property's S&P
sustainable cash flow to be GBP2.6 million and the sustainable
value to be GBP25.3 million. As of fourth-quarter 2019, the
servicer reported the NOI to be GBP2.7 million, and reported a
September 2019 valuation of GBP34.4 million (an increase from the
2018 valuation of GBP31.4 million). S&P has used the same value in
our analysis.

Rating actions

S&P's ratings in this transaction address the timely payment of
interest, payable quarterly in arrears, and the payment of
principal no later than the legal final maturity dates.

The S&P Global Ratings LTV has increased to 93.0% (from 84.5%) due
to its revised S&P Global value for the Maroon loan. S&P has
therefore lowered its ratings on the class A, B, C, D, and E notes
to 'AA+ (sf)', 'A+ (sf)', 'A- (sf)', 'BB- (sf)', and 'B (sf)',
respectively, from 'AAA (sf)', 'AA (sf)', 'A (sf)', 'BBB (sf)', and
'BB+ (sf)'.


JDP FURNITURE: Appoints FRP Advisory to Oversee Administration
--------------------------------------------------------------
Business Sale reports that Long Eaton-based furniture group JDP
Furniture has entered administration, appointing FRP Advisory to
oversee the process.

The company employed 540 people at its Long Eaton plant, according
to its most recent accounts, having made 32 redundant in 2017 after
declining sales for its Wade brand put a stop to its sale to the
independent retail sector, Business Sale discloses.

In its latest set of accounts, JDP Furniture cited difficult
trading conditions as a reason for a drop in revenue, Business Sale
notes.  According to Business Sale, the group has now moved to
appoint Nathan Jones and John Lowe from the Leicester office of FRP
Advisory Trading Limited as joint administrators for the business.

JDP Furniture Group Limited's latest set of accounts were made up
the year ending September 29 2019, Business Sale states.  Amidst
difficult trading conditions, the group registered turnover of
GBP37.6 million for the year, down from GBP43.2 million the year
before, with an operating loss of just over GBP2 million, compared
to GBP3.5 million the year before, Business Sale notes.


NMC HEALTH: UK High Court Judge Puts Business Into Administration
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Jane Croft, Robert Smith and Simeon Kerr at The Financial Times
report that NMC Health has been placed into administration by a UK
high court judge who said that "something had gone very wrong with
the management and oversight" of the company as he granted an
application from creditors led by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank.

Judge Sebastian Prentis said on April 9 he was satisfied that the
healthcare provider was cash flow insolvent and granted ADCB's
application to have Alvarez & Marsal appointed as administrators,
the FT relates.

NMC's future has been uncertain in recent weeks since the Middle
East-focused group found evidence of suspected fraud in its
finances and reported previously undisclosed liabilities, which
raised its net debt pile to US$6.6 billion, the FT notes.

ADCB has almost US$1 billion in debt exposure to NMC, the FT
states.  Its application to the court was backed by other bank
creditors including Barclays, which has a US$146 million exposure,
Dubai Islamic Bank which is owed US$541 million, Abu Dhabi Islamic
Bank which is owed US$325 million and Standard Chartered, the FT
discloses.

Judge Prentis, as cited by the FT, said the administration process
would enable NMC to keep trading.  The court heard its lenders will
put in place a funding agreement to keep the group operational in
the short term, the FT relays.



[*] DBRS Changes Trend to Neg. on 3 UK Hospitality CMBS Transaction
-------------------------------------------------------------------
DBRS Ratings Limited changed the trend to Negative from Stable on
all classes of notes issued by Ribbon Finance 2018 Plc and Magenta
2020 Plc. Additionally, DBRS Morningstar changed the trend to
Negative from Stables on the Class A. Class B, Class C, Class D,
and Class E notes issued by Helios (European Loan Conduit No. 37)
DAC. The trend on the Class RFN notes remains Stable. DBRS
Morningstar currently rates the notes of the three transactions as
follows:

Ribbon Finance 2018 Plc:

-- Class A notes at AAA (sf)
-- Class B notes at AA (low) (sf)
-- Class C notes at A (sf)
-- Class D notes at BBB (high) (sf)
-- Class E notes at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Class F notes at BB (high) (sf)
-- Class G notes at BB (sf)

Helios (European Loan Conduit No. 37) DAC:

-- Class RFN notes at AAA (sf)
-- Class A notes at AAA (sf)
-- Class B notes at AA (low) (sf)
-- Class C notes at A (low) (sf)
-- Class D notes at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Class E notes at BB (high) (sf)

Magenta 2020 Plc:

-- Class A notes at AAA (sf)
-- Class B notes at AA (low) (sf)
-- Class C notes at A (low) (sf)
-- Class D notes at BBB (low) (sf)
-- Class E notes at BB (sf)

The trend change for the UK commercial mortgage-backed securities
(CMBS) transactions secured by hospitality properties (i.e., Ribbon
Finance 2018 Plc, Helios (European Loan Conduit No.37) DAC, and
Magenta 2020 Plc) is a result of the expected deterioration of the
UK hospitality sector following the recent outbreak of the
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) across the country. For more
information, please see the commentary: "Coronavirus (COVID-19)
Impact Negative in the Short Term for UK CMBS Backed by Hotel
Assets":https://www.dbrsmorningstar.com/research/357906/coronavirus-covid-19-impact-negative-in-the-short-term-for-uk-cmbs-backed-by-hotel-assets.
In DBRS Morningstar's view, the lockdown put in place by the UK
authorities, the travel restrictions for certain countries, the
widespread cancellation of conventions and meetings, the personal
travel disruptions, and related circumstances are expected to
significantly impact the cash flow of the properties in the
upcoming months. Because of the nature of advance booking
cancellations, daily bookings, and reliance on tourism, it is
uncertain if operators are prepared to manage these disruptions.

European CMBS transactions backed by hospitality assets are
generally insulated from a loss at the higher rating categories
based on DBRS Morningstar's stressed value approach outlined in its
"European CMBS Rating and Surveillance Methodology". However, at
this stage, the coronavirus' short-term impact on net cash flow
(NCF) and the immediate and long-term recovery of NCF and its
impact on values are unknown, in part because there are no
historical precedents for this type of pandemic-driven economic
downturn.

Despite the likely decrease of hotel revenue and the breach of loan
covenants in the forthcoming months, even if all borrowers stopped
paying interest due on the loans, DBRS Morningstar would not expect
immediate transaction note events of default to materialize, mainly
because the transactions benefit from liquidity facility (e.g.,
Ribbon Finance 2018 Plc) or liquidity reserves (e.g., Helios
(European Loan Conduit No.37) DAC and Magenta 2020 Plc). DBRS
Morningstar expects Ribbon Finance 2018 Plc's liquidity facility
provider, Goldman Sachs Banks USA, to still be required to perform
its obligations. The key exceptions would be (1) the operation of
any force majeure clauses in the contract (which DBRS Morningstar
could not identify in the liquidity facility agreement of Ribbon
Finance 2018 Plc) and (2) the common law concept of frustration
(which should not be relevant). DBRS Morningstar notes that in case
of payment shortfalls of interest due on the securitized loans,
there could be interest deferrals on bonds that are not covered by
the liquidity facility or liquidity reserve, respectively (for more
details, please refer to the respective DBRS Morningstar rating
reports).

Force majeure clauses in a contract will usually deal specifically
with how the party's obligations are affected by an event that
affects one of the party's ability to perform the contract. Events
such as a flu pandemic could, subject to the specific words of the
clause, be covered by the standard force majeure clause; however,
it is uncertain that a party will be able to rely on it to protect
against claims of nonperformance as these clauses are interpreted
strictly by the English courts. Typically a party will also need to
satisfy a number of tests to the court. In the absence of a force
majeure clause, the legal concept of frustration enables a party to
be discharged from its contractual obligations if a significant
change in circumstances makes it physically or commercially
impossible to perform the contract or would mean performing
radically different obligations from those originally agreed. Mere
inconvenience, hardship, or financial loss involved in performing
the contract is insufficient to amount to frustration.

Each of the loans has cash trap and default covenants; because of
the lack of revenue being generated, the debt yield (DY) and
interest coverage ratio (ICR) covenants could be breached at the
next respective interest payment date (IPD). Longer-term pressure
could also arise on loan-to-value (LTV) covenants. DBRS Morningstar
understands that the servicer for each of the transactions is in
active dialogue with the respective borrowers.

Falling short of the DY loan covenant, with respect to Helios
(European Loan Conduit No. 37), the servicer could call a loan
default resulting in a sequential payment trigger event. With
respect to Ribbon Finance 2018 Plc and Magenta 2020 Plc the
servicer could transfer the loan into special servicing which in
turn will result in a sequential payment trigger event. The excess
spread which would ordinarily benefit the Class X noteholders would
be diverted to the Class X diversion ledger wherever applicable.
Any payment to the Class X notes will become fully subordinated.

The liquidity facility, RFN, and issuer liquidity reserve provide
liquidity support for those notes which are covered by it: Classes
A-E for Ribbon Finance 2018 Plc, Classes A-D for Helios (European
Loan Conduit No. 37) DAC, and Classes A-C for Magenta 2020 plc.

Ribbon Finance 2018 Plc

Ribbon Finance 2018 Plc is a securitization of a GBP 449.8 million
senior loan advanced by Goldman Sachs Bank USA (GS) to the borrower
to provide partial acquisition financing for the Dayan family (the
sponsor) to acquire 20 hotels (or 4,840 rooms) located across the
UK and Lapithus Hotels Management UK (LHM), which acts as a
property manager for the same assets. GS also advanced a mezzanine
loan of GBP 69.2 million to Ribbon Mezzco Limited, which was later
sold to funds advised and/or managed by Apollo Global Management
LLC.

The sponsor of Ribbon Finance 2018 Plc had an organizational
restructure separating the direct ownership of the operations from
the direct ownership of the properties, forming a conventional
PropCo/OpCo structure. The ultimate controlling beneficial
ownership of both the operations and the properties remained the
same. No changes were made to the commercial terms of the senior
facility agreement and the mezzanine facility agreement.

At the end of 2019, the sponsor sold one property, the Bloomsbury
Hotel, resulting in net proceeds to partially repay the loan by GBP
49,749,621. Since issuance, GBP 59,870,121 has been repaid in total
(the sale proceeds were distributed pro rata along with scheduled
amortization/release premium allocated sequentially). Following the
January 2020 IPD, the outstanding principal loan balance was GBP
388.0 million, resulting in a senior LTV of 63.1% based on the
August 2019 valuation of GBP 618.0 million. Performance metrics
were in line with expectations, with occupancy at 80%, and EBITDA
of GBP 47 million, and a reported NOI of GBP 40.7 million.

It is still uncertain of what magnitude the final impact on cash
flow will be for the transaction as the length of time under
lockdown is currently unknown. As of the last IPD in January 2020,
all debt obligations were met in full, with a reported ICR of 2.57
times (x) and DY of 10.4%. The next IPD is April 15, 2020, the ICR
must exceed 1.78x and the DY must be greater than 9.26% in order to
be compliant with its loan covenants. The loan expected maturity
date is April 2, 2023, with no extension option available.

Helios (European Loan Conduit No. 37) DAC

Helios (European Loan Conduit No. 37) DAC is the securitization of
a GBP 350 million senior loan advanced by Morgan Stanley Bank N.A.
to Titan Acquisition Limited (the borrower), which is ultimately
owned by London & Regional Group (L&R). The senior loan refinanced
a portfolio of 49 limited-service hotels (with 5,972 rooms) located
across the United Kingdom, which were acquired by the sponsor in
2016. The hotels are managed by the Atlas Hotels Group, which was
also acquired as part of the transaction in 2016 and is now a
wholly-owned operating company of L&R.

As the transaction was recently issued in December 2019, DBRS
Morningstar only has available the performance figures at the time
of closing. At inception, the transaction's LTV was 64%, based on
Cushman & Wakefield's valuation of GBP 546.9 million (or GBP 91,577
per room) from May 2019. The LTV is 62.4% including escrowed
capital expenditure monies within lender control of GBP 14.2
million. At issuance, the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) was
2.0x, and DBRS Morningstar estimates that across the portfolio,
occupancy would have to stay at or above 50% from the reported 82%
in order to maintain debt service. The expected loan maturity date
is in December 2024. The trend on the RFN note remains unchanged;
DBRS Morningstar notes that it ranks senior to all other notes and
is currently backed by cash held on account, which is controlled by
the Issuer. The next IPD is in May 2020 and the DY must exceed 10%
in order to be compliant with its covenant.

Magenta 2020 PLC

The portfolio securing Magenta 2020 PLC (the most-recent UK
hospitality securitization transaction) is made up of 17 hotels
located across the UK. Valor Europe manages these hotels and
operates them under various franchise agreements with
InterContinental Hotels Group, Hilton, and Marriott. The portfolio
comprises three hotels operated under the Hilton DoubleTree brand,
seven hotels flagged by Crowne Plaza, three by Hilton Garden Inn,
two AC by Marriott, one Holiday Inn, and one Indigo.

The valuer, Savills - London Office (Savills), has estimated the
total market value to be GBP 435.5 million, or GBP 128,747 per room
based on the 3,383 rooms in the portfolio, resulting in an LTV of
62.2% based on the current senior loan balance of GBP 270.9
million. The actual DY and DSCR at issuance were 11.8% and 3.0x,
respectively, which provide some coverage to withstand any
short-term downward pressure on revenues caused by the impact of
the coronavirus. However, in a prolonged lockdown situation, DBRS
Morningstar is of the opinion that the transaction could fall under
significant refinancing pressure because of the initial loan
maturity in December 2021 and without the opportunity to exercise
the three one-year extension options due to potential breaches in
LTV and/or DY covenants. The next IPD is in June 2020 and the DY
must exceed 8.75% in order to be compliant with its covenant.

Notes: All figures are in British pound sterling unless otherwise
noted.

[*] UK: More Than Half of Non-Food Retailers May Collapse
---------------------------------------------------------
Laura Onita at The Telegraph reports that more than half of
Britain's non-food retailers will run out of cash and collapse if
the lockdown lasts until summer in a catastrophe for the high
street, industry experts have warned.

According to The Telegraph, most chains have been forced to shut
their physical shops after the nation was told to stay at home,
with many also voluntarily axing online operations as staff refused
to work and consumer spending dried up.

Sales are thought to have fallen by as much as 70% since the
lockdown began according to analysts at Retail Economics and
advisory firm Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) –-- with most retailers'
earnings being largely wiped out this year as a result, The
Telegraph discloses.

Half of the 34 biggest players are now in danger of going bust
within six months unless the economy is able to return to normal,
the experts, as cited by The Telegraph, said, despite huge
government support measures.  Five of these firms were already
running short on cash due to tough trading conditions before the
pandemic struck, The Telegraph states.




===============
X X X X X X X X
===============

[*] BOOK REVIEW: Hospitals, Health and People
---------------------------------------------
Author: Albert W. Snoke, M.D.
Publisher: Beard Books
Softcover: 232 pages
List Price: $34.95
Order your personal copy today at
http://www.beardbooks.com/beardbooks/hospitals_health_and_people.html

Hospitals, Health and People is an interesting and very readable
account of the career of a hospital administrator and physician
from the 1930's through the 1980's, the formative years of today's
health care system. Although much has changed in hospital
administration and health care since the book was first published
in 1987, Dr. Snoke's discussion of the evolution of the modern
hospital provides a unique and very valuable perspective for
readers who wish to better understand the forces at work in our
current health care system.

The first half of Hospitals, Health and People is devoted to the
functional parts of the hospital system, as observed by Dr. Snoke
between the late 1930's through 1969, when he served first as
assistant director of the Strong Memorial Hospital in Rochester,
New York, and then as the director of the Grace-New Haven Hospital
in Connecticut. In these first chapters, Dr. Snoke examines the
evolution and institutionalization of a number of aspects of the
hospital system, including the financial and community
responsibilities of the hospital administrator, education and
training in hospital administration, the role of the governing
board of a hospital, the dynamics between the hospital
administrator and the medical staff, and the unique role of the
teaching hospital.

The importance of Hospitals, Health and People for today's readers
is due in large part to the author's pivotal role in creating the
modern-day hospital. Dr. Snoke and others in similar positions
played a large part in advocating or forcing change in our hospital
system, particularly in recognizing the importance of the nursing
profession and the contributions of non-physician professionals,
such as psychologists, hearing and speech specialists, and social
workers, to the overall care of the patient. Throughout the first
chapters, there are also many observations on the factors that are
contributing to today's cost of care. Malpractice is just one
example. According to Dr. Snoke, "malpractice premiums were
negligible in the 1950's and 1960's. In 1970, Yale-New Haven's
annual malpractice premiums had mounted to about $150,000." By the
time of the first publication of the book, the hospital's premiums
were costing about $10 million a year.

In the second half of Hospitals, Health and People, Dr. Snoke
addresses the national health care system as we've come to know it,
including insurance and cost containment; the role of the
government in health care; health care for the elderly; home health
care; and the changing role of ethics in health care. It is
particularly interesting to note the role that Senator Wilbur Mills
from Arkansas played in the allocation of costs of hospital-based
specialty components under Part B rather than Part A of the
Medicare bill. Dr. Snoke comments: "This was considered a great
victory by the hospital-based specialists. I was disappointed
because I knew it would cause confusion in working relationships
between hospitals and specialists and among patients covered by
Medicare. I was also concerned about potential cost increases. My
fears were realized. Not only have health costs increased in
certain areas more than anticipated, but confusion is rampant among
the elderly patients and their families, as well as in hospital
business offices and among physicians' secretaries." This aspect of
Medicare caused such confusion that Congress amended Medicare in
1967 to provide that the professional components of radiological
and pathological in-hospital services be reimbursed as if they were
hospital services under Part A rather than part of the co-payment
provisions of Part B.

At the start of his book, Dr. Snoke refers to a small statue,
Discharged Cured, which was given to him in the late 1940's by a
fellow physician, Dr. Jack Masur. Dr. Snoke explains the
significance the statue held for him throughout his professional
career by quoting from an article by Dr. Masur: "The whole question
of the responsibility of the physician, of the hospital, of the
health agency, brings vividly to mind a small statue which I saw a
great many years ago.it is a pathetic little figure of a man, coat
collar turned up and shoulders hunched against the chill winds,
clutching his belongings in a paper bag-shaking, tremulous,
discouraged. He's clearly unfit for work-no employer would dare to
take a chance on hiring him. You know that he will need much more
help before he can face the world with shoulders back and
confidence in himself. The statuette epitomizes the task of medical
rehabilitation: to bridge the gap between the sick and a job."

It is clear that Dr. Snoke devoted his life to exactly that
purpose. Although there is much to criticize in our current
healthcare system, the wellness concept that we expect and accept
today as part of our medical care was almost nonexistent when Dr.
Snoke began his career in the 1930's. Throughout his 50 years in
hospital administration, Dr. Snoke frequently had to focus on the
big picture and the bottom line. He never forgot the importance of
Discharged Cured, however, and his book provides us with a great
appreciation of how compassionate administrators such as Dr. Snoke
have contributed to the state of patient care today.

Albert Waldo Snoke was director of the Grace-New Haven Hospital in
New Haven, Connecticut from 1946 until 1969. In New Haven, Dr.
Snoke also taught hospital administration at Yale University and
oversaw the development of the Yale-New Haven Hospital, serving as
its executive director from 1965-1968. From 1969-1973, Dr. Snoke
worked in Illinois as coordinator of health services in the Office
of the Governor and later as acting executive director of the
Illinois Comprehensive State Health Planning Agency. Dr. Snoke died
in April 1988.



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S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

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