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       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                          E U R O P E

          Tuesday, March 31, 2020, Vol. 21, No. 65

                           Headlines



F R A N C E

NEXANS S.A.: Egan-Jones Lowers Senior Unsecured Ratings to BB-


G E R M A N Y

ESPRIT: Puts Six German Subsidiary Companies in Administration
KIRK BEAUTY: Moody's Places B3 CFR on Review for Downgrade
VAC INTERMEDIATE: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa1, Outlook Negative


G R E E C E

ELLAKTOR SA: Fitch Downgrades LT IDR to B+, Outlook Negative


I R E L A N D

CIMPRESS PLC: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'B+', Outlook Negative


I T A L Y

ELROND NPL 2017: Moody'c Cuts EUR42.5M Class B Notes Rating to Caa1
ESSELUNGA SPA: Moody's Cuts Sr. Unsec. Debt Rating to Ba1
PIAGGIO & C.: S&P Downgrades Rating to B+ Due to Coronavirus Impact
SOCIETA DI PROGETTO: Fitch Downgrades Sr. Sec. Notes Rating to BB+


L U X E M B O U R G

ADECOAGRO SA: Moody's Affirms Ba2 CFR, Alters Outlook to Neg.
ARCELORMITTAL S.A.: Egan-Jones Cuts Sr. Unsec. Debt Ratings to BB+


N E T H E R L A N D S

INTERXION HOLDING: Moody's Withdraws B1 CFR on Debt Repayment


N O R W A Y

AKER BP: Moody's Affirms Ba1 CFR, Alters Outlook to Neg.


R U S S I A

TRANSCONTAINER PJSC: Fitch Downgrades LT IDR to BB-, On Watch Neg.
UGI INTERNATIONAL: Fitch Affirms BB+ LT IDR, Outlook Stable


S P A I N

BAHIA DE LAS ISLETAS: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa2, Outlook Neg.
EL CORTE: Fitch Places BB+ LT IDR on Rating Watch Negative


S W E D E N

SCANDINAVIAN AIRLINES: Egan-Jones Cuts Sr. Unsec. Debt Ratings to B


S W I T Z E R L A N D

DUFRY AG: Moody's Cuts CFR to Ba3, Rating Under Review
SWISSPORT GROUP: Moody's Places B3 CFR on Review for Downgrade


U K R A I N E

DTEK: Seeks Debt Restructuring Due to Coronavirus Crisis


U N I T E D   K I N G D O M

ATOTECH UK: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'B-' on COVID-19 Disruptions
BRIGHTHOUSE: Goes Into Administration, Seeks Buyer for Business
CARLUCCIO'S: Goes Into Administration Amid Coronavirus Pandemic
CONNECT BIDCO: S&P Places 'B+' Long-Term ICR on Watch Negative
ENQUEST PLC: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3; Put on Review for Downgrade

EXTENTIA GROUP: Cash Flow Problems Prompt Administration
ITHACA ENERGY: Fitch Cuts IDR to B; Places Rating on Neg. Watch
ITHACA ENERGY: Moody's Places B1 CFR on Review for Downgrade
KELDA FINANCE: S&P Withdraws 'BB-' Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating
LOMBOK: Enters Administration, 43 Jobs Affected

NEPTUNE ENERGY: Moody's Places Ba3 CFR on Review for Downgrade
NEPTUNE ENERGY: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative & Affirms 'BB-' ICR
OCADO GROUP: Moody's Cuts CFR to B2, Outlook Revised to Stable
PLAYTECH PLC: Moody's Cuts CFR to Ba3 & Alters Outlook to Neg.
SQUARE CHAPEL: Cash Flow Difficulties Prompt Administration

SYNTHOMER PLC: S&P Assigns BB Issuer Credit Rating, Outlook Stable
TULLOW OIL: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, On Review for Further Downgrade


X X X X X X X X

[*] Moody's Reviews Ratings on 7 Auto Manufacturers for Downgrade

                           - - - - -


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F R A N C E
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NEXANS S.A.: Egan-Jones Lowers Senior Unsecured Ratings to BB-
--------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company, on March 20, 2020, downgraded the
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by Nexans S.A. to BB- from BB+.

Nexans S.A. is a global player in the cable and optical fiber
industry headquartered in Paris, France. The group is active in
four main business areas: buildings and territories, high voltage
and projects, data and telecoms, industry and solutions.




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G E R M A N Y
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ESPRIT: Puts Six German Subsidiary Companies in Administration
--------------------------------------------------------------
Robert Stockdill at Inside Retail Asia reports that Hong
Kong-listed apparel retailer Esprit has placed six German
subsidiary companies in administration to give them protection
during the coronavirus crisis, which has decimated sales.

The move was finalized at the end of last week while the company's
shares were suspended from trading, Inside Retail Asia notes.

The measure, called Protective Shield Proceedings under the German
Insolvency Act, allows restructuring to take place in
self-administration, Inside Retail Asia states.

According to Inside Retail Asia, in an explanatory statement filed
with the Hong Kong stock exchange, Esprit said that with many
countries implementing public health measures and taking drastic
actions to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic, all of
Esprit's European stores have been temporarily shuttered, along
with almost all those of the group's franchise and wholesale
partners.

"Subsequent to the announcement, the position of the European
companies in the group has further deteriorated significantly, as
they currently generate only weak e-commerce turnover, while
salaries, rents and operating costs continue to accrue."

Esprit describes the protective self-administration as a "proactive
and forward-looking measure to protect the solvency and liquidity
of the group", Inside Retail Asia relays.  It protects the company
from claims from individual creditors while they work out a
restructuring plan for the approval of creditors and the courts,
which must be lodged by June 29, according to Inside Retail Asia.

The German courts approved the process on March 27, appointing Dr
Biner Bahr -- bbaehr@whitecase.com -- a Dusseldorf-based partner of
the international law firm White & Case, as the preliminary
custodian to supervise the restructuring of the subject
subsidiaries in self-administration, Inside Retail Asia discloses.

Esprit has appointed Detlev Specovius --
DSpecovius@schultze-braun.de -- a partner of the German
restructuring law-firm Schultze & Braun, who has extensive
experience in self-administration cases, to actively support the
process, Inside Retail Asia relates.


KIRK BEAUTY: Moody's Places B3 CFR on Review for Downgrade
----------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has placed under review for downgrade the
B3 corporate family rating and the B3-PD probability of default
rating of German beauty products retailer Kirk Beauty One GmbH.
Concurrently, Moody's has placed under review for downgrade the
Caa2 rating on the EUR335 million senior notes due 2023 issued by
Kirk Beauty One GmbH and the B2 rating on the senior secured debt
instruments borrowed by its subsidiaries, comprising the EUR200
million revolving credit facility, the EUR1,670 million Term Loan B
and the EUR300 million senior secured notes due 2022 issued by
Douglas GmbH. The outlook on the ratings was changed to rating
under review from stable.

"We have placed Douglas' ratings under review for downgrade because
the spread of the coronavirus across Europe will result in lower
sales and earnings for the company, owing to the temporary closure
of most of its stores across Europe. Douglas has sufficient
liquidity to cope with a temporary stoppage of its activity, but a
more prolonged closure would stress its liquidity in the near term
and also limit its ability to refinance its 2022 debt maturities,"
says Lorenzo Re, a Moody's Vice President - Senior Analyst and lead
analyst for Douglas.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The retail sector
has been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the
shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment. More
specifically for Douglas, the closure of most of its stores across
Europe will lead to depressed sales and cash generation over the
coming months. Douglas remains vulnerable to the outbreak
continuing to spread.

Moody's expects Douglas to face material operational disruptions in
the second and third quarter of the 2019/2020 fiscal year, leading
to a significant deterioration of the company's financial profile.
The company's performance during the first quarter of fiscal 2020
was solid, owing to a positive Christmas season, and strengthened
the company's liquidity. Douglas generates approximately 40% of its
annual EBITDA during the Christmas season, which leaves the company
with some time to recover its performance before the next high
season.

However, the rating agency estimates that, despite the company has
taken aggressive cost reductions and cash preserving measures,
Douglas could incur in large operating losses in the next couple of
months because of the sharp reduction in sales and the under
absorption of fixed SG&A costs. Moody's estimates that around
EUR130 million of Douglas' Moody's adjusted EBITDA (out of a total
estimated EBITDA of about EUR600 million in fiscal 2020) is at risk
during the next three months. In this scenario, the company's
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage would increase to above 8.0x in
fiscal 2020 from a previous estimate of 6.6x. However, the duration
and extent of the shutdown is still uncertain and any recovery
prospects once the lockdown is ended will be hampered by reduced
macroeconomic growth, reduced consumer confidence and lower
consumer disposable income.

Moody's also expects that Douglas' liquidity will weaken, owing to
the lower cash generation caused by the store closures. Moody's
estimates that the company's liquidity's buffer will be sufficient
to cope with a short-period of business disruption, but a prolonged
shutdown could cause liquidity stress. The rating review process
will focus on (1) the degree and extension to which the spread of
the coronavirus will impair the company's business; (2) the
flexibility of the company to adapt its cost structure and preserve
cash; (3) the potential benefits from any measures implemented by
European governments to support liquidity needs of corporates; and
(4) the recovery prospects after the business normalisation in the
context of a weakened macroeconomic environment.

Moody's expects to conclude the review within the next three
months.

Douglas' credit profile continues to be supported by the company's
strong market position and significant scale in the specialist
beauty retail sector, which shows positive demand dynamics.
However, demand in the beauty sector is highly discretionary and
exposed to consumer sentiment, and competition in the sector
remains strong.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE (ESG) CONSIDERATIONS

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. The action reflects the impact on Douglas of the
breadth and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in
credit quality it has triggered.

In addition, Douglas, as other retailers, is exposed to increasing
social risks because of the shift in consumer preferences and
spending patterns. In particular, the shift towards e-commerce has
increased pressure on retail companies to intensify their online
presence, which however weighs on margins, because of the
associated logistics, IT and marketing costs.

In terms of governance, Moody's notes that the company is tightly
controlled by private equity firm CVC Capital Partners and - as is
often the case in highly levered, private equity sponsored deals -
has a high tolerance for leverage, while governance is
comparatively less transparent.

LIQUIDITY

Liquidity as of December 2019 included EUR360 million of available
cash and a EUR200 million revolving credit facility (RCF), which
Moody's expects the company to fully draw in March. Moody's also
expects that Douglas' liquidity will weaken because of normal
working capital seasonality and of lower cash generation caused by
the store closures. Moody's estimates this liquidity to be
sufficient to cope with a short-period of business disruption.
However, Douglas will be reliant on the full drawing of the RCF and
its liquidity will be very stretched in the next six months.
Moreover, Moody's expects that a material deterioration in EBITDA
would likely lead to a breach of the springing net leverage
covenant, tested when drawings exceed 40% under the company's RCF,
leaving the company reliant on its ability to get a covenant
waiver.

The company has increasing refinancing risk due to the maturity in
2022 of both the EUR1,670 million term loan and the EUR300 million
senior secured notes. A prolonged period of business disruption
with weak recovery prospects might impair the company's ability to
refinance these maturities on a timely manner.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

The EUR1,670 million senior secured Facility B, the EUR300 million
senior secured notes and the EUR200 million RCF are all rated B2,
one notch above the CFR, reflecting the senior position of these
instruments relative to the junior instruments in the capital
structure, the EUR335 million senior notes that are rated Caa2.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN

The ratings are currently under review for downgrade.

Prior to the ratings review process, Moody's said that negative
pressure on the rating could materialise in case of continued
pressure on margin that further impairs operating performance,
leading to Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA above 7.0x on a sustained
basis and negative free cash flow for an extended period of time
leading to liquidity concerns.

Prior to the ratings review process, Moody's said that positive
ratings pressure could result over time from (1) solid top line
growth, margin improvement and free cash flow generation over and
above Moody's expectations; (2) Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA
falling below 6.0x on a sustained basis; and (3) visibility
regarding the successful refinancing of the debt maturing in 2022.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: Kirk Beauty One GmbH

On Review for Downgrade:

Probability of Default Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade,
currently B3-PD

Corporate Family Rating, Placed on Review for Downgrade, currently
B3

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for
Downgrade, currently Caa2

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Douglas Finance B.V.

On Review for Downgrade:

Backed Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Placed on Review for
Downgrade, currently B2

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Douglas GmbH

On Review for Downgrade:

Backed Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Placed on Review for
Downgrade, currently B2

Backed Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, Placed on Review for
Downgrade, currently B2

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Groupe Nocibe France S.A.S.

On Review for Downgrade:

Backed Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Placed on Review for
Downgrade, currently B2

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Nocibe France S.A.S.

On Review for Downgrade:

Backed Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Placed on Review for
Downgrade, currently B2

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Parfumerie Douglas GmbH

On Review for Downgrade:

Backed Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Placed on Review for
Downgrade, currently B2

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Parfumerie Douglas International GmbH

On Review for Downgrade:

Backed Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, Placed on Review for
Downgrade, currently B2

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Retail Industry
published in May 2018.

COMPANY PROFILE

Kirk Beauty One GmbH, headquartered in Dusseldorf, is a
multichannel retailer of selective beauty and personal care
products with stores in 20 different European countries and
e-commerce operations in 24 countries. The group was acquired in
August 2015 by funds advised by CVC Capital Partners. The founders,
the Kreke family, still retain a 15% stake in the company. The
company generated EUR3,453 million and EUR611 million in revenue
and Moody's-adjusted EBITDA, respectively, in the fiscal year ended
September 2019.

VAC INTERMEDIATE: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa1, Outlook Negative
------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service downgraded to Caa1 from B3 the corporate
family rating and to Caa1-PD from B3-PD the probability of default
rating of New VAC Intermediate Holdings BV (VAC). Concurrently,
Moody's downgraded to Caa1 from B3 the instrument ratings of VAC
Germany Holdings GmbH. The outlook on the rating is negative.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The manufacturing
industry has been one of the sectors most significantly affected by
the shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment.
More specifically, the weaknesses in VAC's credit profile,
including its exposure to the automotive industry have left it
vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in these unprecedented
operating conditions and VAC remains vulnerable to the outbreak
continuing to spread. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a
social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial
implications for public health and safety. The action reflects the
impact on VAC of the breadth and severity of the shock, and the
broad deterioration in credit quality it has triggered.

The downgrade of VAC's ratings to Caa1 with a negative outlook
reflects the expectation, that the company's operating performance
is likely to weaken over the next quarters with weakening credit
metrics, against the expectation of the previous rating category of
performance and leverage improvements. Credit metrics are currently
already below the requirements for the lower end of the single
B-rating category. In a scenario of a weakening operating
performance and negative free cash flow generation, additional
liquidity needs arise.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

The $30 million revolver is pari passu with the $225 million
first-lien term loan. Both the revolver and the term loan are rated
Caa1, which reflects the credit facility comprising most of the
debt in the capital structure before giving effect to the pension.
VAC Germany Holdings GmbH (the German borrower) and New VAC US LLC
(the US borrower) hold instrument ratings that are consistent with
the CFR. Under a default scenario, Moody's expects the recovery of
the credit facility to be in line with that represented by the CFR
partly because of the guarantee from New VAC Intermediate Holdings
BV.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

The coronavirus outbreak is regarded as a social risk under its ESG
framework, given the substantial implications for public health and
safety. With regard to governance, Moody's notes that the company
is controlled by private equity company Apollo Global Management,
LLC, and it expects VAC's financial policy to favits shareholders
over creditors as evidenced by its high leverage. However, in the
near-term the company foresees no dividend distribution and targets
deleveraging instead. The understanding is that large M&A deals are
not excluded, but unlikely in the near term.

LIQUIDITY

Concerned by EUR24 million negative free cash flow during the first
nine months of 2019 and limited visibility, Moody's considers the
company's liquidity position to be just adequate. As per end of
September 2019 VAC reported a cash balance of EUR11 million and
EUR23 million availability under its $30 million (EUR 27 million)
revolving credit facility, which is subject to a springing leverage
covenant of 5.35x, to be tested if drawings exceed 35% of the
facility. While these liquidity sources, combined with projected
FFO generation, are sufficient to accommodate working capital
swings and cover forecasted capital expenditures as well as
upcoming debt maturities in the next 12 months, VAC has still some
headroom for possible underperformance. No significant debt
repayments are due until 2025 when the company's Term Loan B
matures.

OUTLOOK

The negative outlook mirrors the challenge for VAC to sustainably
restore profitability towards historical level. Moody's will
continue to closely monitor the further development in particular
with regard to the development of order intake and potential
cancellations of orders, potential further restructuring needs, the
company's ability to reduce leverage as well as to strengthen the
liquidity position, which currently suffers from a negative free
cash flow generation and tightening covenant headroom.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

The ratings could be downgraded further in case of the company's
inability to stop the negative free cash flow, or further
tightening covenant headroom. Albeit currently unlikely, Moody's
would consider an upgrade action should VAC manage to sustainably
generate an adjusted EBITA margin above 8%, reduce its gross
adjusted debt/EBITDA below 7.0x on a sustainable basis, generate
meaningful positive FCF and maintain an adequate liquidity profile
with sufficient covenant headroom at all times.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Manufacturing
Methodology published in March 2020.

COMPANY PROFILE

New VAC Ultimate Holdings BV is the top holding company in the
organization structure. The Caa1 corporate family rating (CFR) is
located at the guarantor of the issued debt at New VAC Intermediate
Holdings BV. This entity lies below New VAC Ultimate Holdings BV,
which in turn is the indirect parent of the co-borrowers VAC
Germany Holdings GmbH and New VAC US LLC.

The company focuses on special magnetic materials and components,
and serves key global markets, including automotive systems,
industrial automation and the medical community. Headquartered in
Hanau, Germany, the company reports in euros. The company operates
manufacturing facilities in the Americas, Europe and Asia. Moody's
expects its total annual revenue for 2019 to be around EUR360
million.



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G R E E C E
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ELLAKTOR SA: Fitch Downgrades LT IDR to B+, Outlook Negative
------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded ELLAKTOR S.A.'s Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating and Ellaktor Value PLC's EUR670 million notes to
'B+' from 'BB'. The Outlooks are Negative.

RATING RATIONALE

The downgrades reflect its view that ELLAKTOR's ability to achieve
the leverage guidance of around 3.0x in 2023 has reduced.
Unexpected cash leakages from the restricted group to support the
construction business represent the loosening of a prudent
financial policy and weakening of its assumptions about the
strength of the ring-fence. Lower economic growth and COVID-19
disruption to the company's concession business support the
downgrade. The company's solid liquidity position and the absence
of immediate refinancing needs are positive for the rating.

The 'B+' ratings reflect the diversified infrastructure business
risk profile of the restricted group whose activities are
concentrated in Greece. The concession business benefits from the
essential infrastructure character of ELLAKTOR's major and mature
toll road concession Attiki Odos - a crucial ring-road around
Athens. However, traffic volatility has been high and tariffs flat.
The ring road is highly cash-generative but has a short tenor.

The renewable energy projects receive fixed tariffs under Greek
regulation, and are operated through long-term maintenance
contracts with wind-turbine manufacturers. The historical
performance has been strong with high availability levels, and
cumulative production mostly in line with P50 levels, and has only
fallen below 1YP90 levels in one year. The cash-flow stability from
renewables improves the overall profile of the restricted group's
cash flows.

The corporate high-yield debt structure provides some protection in
form of ring-fencing and covenants. The ring-fencing provides some
protection against the contagion from the restructured Moreas
motorway and ELLAKTOR's construction business, which has a history
of volatile profitability. Fitch expects the construction
activities to be downsized, but the residual exposure to the
construction activities has increased as the company used flows out
of the restricted group to support the construction business.
Although allowed under the bond documentation, the pay-outs are in
contrast with its previous assumptions based on company's strategy
and its previous discussions with management. Fitch will monitor
the evolution of this exposure.

The Negative Outlook reflects the unclear extent and length of the
COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the company's concessions. The
outbreak could affect the company's cash flows beyond its current
expectations.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Rating Approach

Fitch rates ELLAKTOR and the notes using its global infrastructure
and project finance master criteria. Fitch uses analytical elements
of the toll roads, bridges and tunnels sector criteria as well as
renewable energy project criteria. Fitch assesses the business risk
profile using the volume risk and price risk assessments for both
concessions and renewables including the environmental business
segments and set overall leverage guidance for the restricted group
considering both criteria (mainly toll roads) and peer comparison.
In addition to revenue risk (including volume risk and price risk),
Fitch has identified infrastructure development and renewal and
debt structure as key rating drivers.

Concessions Revenue Risk

Essential Infrastructure but High Volatility Traffic - Revenue Risk
- Volume: Midrange

The concession business generates over 70% of the restricted
group's EBITDA and is underpinned mainly by toll road concessions
in Greece. Most of the restricted group's cash flows are generated
by Attiki Odos. Contributions from other minority-owned concessions
are insignificant at present.

Attiki Odos constitutes essential infrastructure and is the
backbone of the road network in the metropolitan area of Athens,
the economic and administrative centre of Greece. The catchment
area is well-developed but has historically underperformed. The
ring road is a mature concession but with a short tenor of five
years. Light vehicles and commuters represent the majority of
traffic. Its peak-to-trough traffic decline of 36% puts the ring
road among the weakest of its rated toll roads in terms of traffic
volatility. However, the severe decline was exacerbated by
austerity measures introduced following the Greek debt crisis. To
date, traffic has not recovered to its peak. The road benefits from
limited competition as inner-city roads can be heavily congested
with traffic. In addition, the ring road acts as the main conduit
between central Athens and Athens International Airport.

Fitch expects traffic to be negatively affected by the coronavirus
disruption, given the expected slowdown in the economic activity
and as various measures to contain a further spread of the disease
are introduced by the government.

Limited History of Tariff Increases - Revenue Risk - Price: Weaker

Tariffs on Attiki Odos are subject to an inflation-linked cap but
with a limited history of tariff increases. The flat historical
toll rates reflect the challenging economic environment since the
introduction of the first austerity package in 2010, which led to a
substantial reduction in traffic.

Although the ring road is free to set its toll rates up to the cap,
there is some (contained) political interference. Improving
employment, rising disposable income and moderate fiscal loosening
could support potential tariff increases.

Renewables Revenue Risk

Strong Portfolio Performance -Revenue Risk - Volume Risk: Midrange

The difference between the P50 and the 1YP90 forecasts is 14% in
operating projects. The historical performance of the portfolio has
been robust, performing slightly below 1YP90 estimates in only one
year, and the portfolio effect (i.e. lower production in one
project partially mitigated by higher production in other projects)
will mitigate any underperformance in wind farms. The overall
assessment of volume risk for the portfolio is 'Midrange' given the
difference between P50 and 1YP90. The higher degree of production
uncertainty in new projects is partially offset by the strong
performance of the current portfolio, as well by the potential
portfolio effect.

Fixed tariffs funded by consumers - Revenue Risk - Price Risk:
Stronger

The renewable energy projects of the portfolio have two different
types of remuneration. The oldest projects receive fixed
feed-in-tariffs (FiTs), while the remainder receive
feed-in-premiums (FiPs). All except one project originates from the
pre-auctions period (before 2017) with tariffs of around EUR90/MWh,
fixed during the entire life of the power purchase agreements
(PPAs) signed with the market operator. The framework relies on the
pass-through to end-consumers, and therefore is assessed as
systemic risk. The portfolio mostly comprises wind farms, with only
one PV (2MWs) and one hydro (5MW) project in the portfolio. Only
projects on the islands (9MWs) are exposed to curtailment due to
grid instability.

The electricity system in Greece was previously subject to
retroactive measures to reduce tariffs, with the aim of eliminating
the renewables system deficit. The measures achieved their
objective, and the deficit used to pay renewables in Greece has
disappeared. While wind farms were affected by these measures, the
effect was smaller than for other technologies. Projects suffered
tariff reductions, but received extended PPAs in some cases.

Well-Maintained with Renewable Capacity Expansion - Infrastructure
Development and Renewal: Stronger

Attiki Odos is a modern motorway with high safety standards and
sufficient capacity to accommodate forecast traffic. Its
maintenance and capex planning are well-defined. The two priorities
of the investment policy are concessions and renewables. Both are
capital-intensive and have high initial capital requirements. The
majority of capex relates to the building-out of the wind farm
portfolio with a capex cycle peak in 2019-2020, with construction
well-advanced for many wind farms and completion expected by
end-2020. Capex is funded mainly through debt.

Corporate high yield structure - Debt Structure - Midrange

The rated senior unsecured notes are issued within a high-yield
corporate structure with some protection to the noteholders in form
of ring-fencing and covenants. These covenants limit the restricted
group's ability to incur further debt, pay dividends or make
inter-company payments, all subject to certain baskets. However,
the covenant package is looser than in traditional project-finance
structures. The financial documentation allows the provision of
performance guarantees in favour of ELLAKTOR's construction
business but only for projects that the restricted group will
directly benefit from.

The notes effectively rank parri-passu with other ELLAKTOR's debt
(renewable debt) and all the debt of the guarantors in right of
payment. However, the notes are subordinated in terms of the
security provided to the benefit of the debt used for developing
renewable projects. The notes are also structurally subordinated to
the debt of the non-guarantor subsidiaries, typically with
non-recourse project-finance debt.

The notes are bullet and exposed to refinancing risk. The
proportion of bullet debt on the restricted group's total debt is
over 60% as the restricted group's other debt is fully amortising.
The debt is partially exposed to interest-rate risk as only the
notes are fixed-rate and the other debt is almost completely
floating.

PEER GROUP

French concessions and construction company Vinci S.A.
(A-/Positive) and Italian toll road operator SIAS S.p.A.
(BBB+/Negative) are the closest peers.

Vinci's key activities mainly include toll road and airport
concessions and construction. The toll roads and airports generate
the majority of the group's EBITDA. Its toll road network is
considerably larger than ELLAKTOR's. In addition, Vinci's
consolidated leverage is lower, with a 2019-2021 average of 3.0x,
although this offsets the greater volatility of the contracting
business.

SIAS is the second-largest Italian toll road operator in wealthy
north-west Italy. Its average concession tenor is seven years,
similar to ELLAKTOR's mature concession Attiki Odos. Fitch-adjusted
leverage is expected to peak at 3.8x in 2022. SIAS has now merged
with its parent ASTM. The new group is firmly anchored in toll
roads but has a modest exposure to the engineering & construction
business.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action

Deleveraging path consistent with achieving Fitch-adjusted net
debt/EBITDAR for the restricted group of around 3.0x in 2023

The Attiki Odos concession being extended or renewed

Softer than expected impact of COVID-19 on traffic

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action

Fitch-adjusted net debt/EBITDAR for the restricted group exceeding
4.0x in 2023

A failure to manage refinancing in a timely manner

Further loosening of a prudent financial policy or weakening of the
ring-fence

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

ELLAKTOR is an infrastructure and construction group with a strong
position in Greece. The transaction's restricted group consists of
concessions (excluding the Moreas Motorway), renewables, and
environment business. It excludes the construction and real estate
business.

Ellaktor Value PLC is the issuer and a wholly-owned subsidiary of
ELLAKTOR, which together with other guarantors, guarantees the
notes.

CREDIT UPDATE

Coronavirus Outbreak

The outbreak of coronavirus and related government containment
measures worldwide create an uncertain global environment for toll
road traffic in the near term. While ELLAKTOR's performance data
from the most recently available issuer data may not have indicated
impairment, material changes in revenue and cost profile are
occurring across EMEA toll roads and likely to worsen in the coming
weeks and months as economic activity suffers and further
government restrictions are introduced, maintained or expanded.
Fitch's ratings are forward-looking in nature, and Fitch will
monitor developments in the sector as a result of the coronavirus
outbreak as it relates to severity and duration, and incorporate
revised base and rating case qualitative and quantitative inputs
based on expectations for future performance and assessment of key
risks.

Dividends to Support Construction Segment

The restricted group has recently paid out around EUR40 million,
which was subsequently injected into the construction segment.
Although the flows between the restricted and unrestricted group
are envisaged by the documentation of the notes, these payments
have partially weakened its perception of the strength of the
ring-fencing. Fitch was previously assured by the management that
no money is expected to leave the ring-fencing through dividends
distributions or payments to unrestricted subsidiaries and as such
these were not included in its previous forecast.

Solid Liquidity and No Immediate Refinancing Needs

The restricted group has a strong liquidity position. According to
management accounts, cash and liquid assets of restricted group
were material at the end of February 2020. Companies outside of the
restricted group had further cash reserves and ELLAKTOR is
negotiating a revolving credit facility to address the construction
segment's financing needs. Although ELLAKTOR's debt in renewable
and environment segments amortises, the company has no material
refinancing needs until 2024 when the EUR670 million notes mature.

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

Under Fitch's base and rating cases, Fitch expects projected
five-year average Fitch-adjusted net debt/EBITDAR for restricted
group to reach 3.8x and 4.6x, respectively. This represents an
increase of leverage of around 1.0x compared with its previous
forecast.

Leverage peaks in 2020 with 5.3x under the rating case as the
company reaches the peak of its renewable investment programme and
traffic in the concession segment suffers due to COVID-19
containment measures and economic disruption. Thereafter, Fitch
expects the company to embark on deleveraging in line with the
shortening of the remaining life of its main toll road concession
and renewable portfolio towards 3.9x in 2023. However, this
deleveraging is no longer commensurate with its previous
expectations of leverage of around 3.0x in 2023.

Fitch Cases

Fitch's key assumptions within base and rating case are:

Concessions

Traffic severally impacted by measures introduced to contain the
spread of COVID-19 and subsequent economic disruption. Fitch
expects a decline of traffic by around 25% in 2020 followed by a
sharp recovery in 2021 and residual catch-up in 2022 under its
rating case.

On average effective toll rate to rise by 1.7% under the Fitch base
case and 0.7% under the Fitch rating case.

The company will embark on cost-cutting measures and will keep the
EBITDA margins at around 68% level.

Renewables

Fitch uses P50 for its Fitch base case and 1YP90 for its rating
case, and in both cases a 2% haircut on production to reflect
uncertainty in production forecasts.

A 5% stress on operating expenditure has been applied in the Fitch
rating case, while costs are in line with the sponsor's case for
the Fitch base case.

Other Assumptions

Between 2020 and 2023, around EUR180 million assumed to be spent
under the Fitch base case and around EUR200 million spent under the
Fitch rating case. This represents a curtailment of capital
expenditure compared to its previous assumptions.

Dividends assumed at 50% of net income; and

Readily available cash excludes cash proportionally belonging to
minority shareholders in Attiki Odos.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).



=============
I R E L A N D
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CIMPRESS PLC: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'B+', Outlook Negative
----------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on Cimpress PLC
to 'B+' from 'BB-', its issue-level rating on the company's senior
secured facility to 'BB-' from 'BB', and its issue-level rating on
the company's unsecured notes to 'B-' from 'B'.

S&P Global Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about
the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak. S&P said,
"Some government authorities estimate the pandemic will peak
between June and August, and we are using this assumption in
assessing the economic and credit implications. We believe measures
to contain COVID-19 have pushed the global economy into recession
and could cause a surge of defaults among nonfinancial corporate
borrowers. As the situation evolves, we will update our assumptions
and estimates accordingly."

Leverage will likely remain elevated through 2020.  S&P said, "We
believe COVID-19 has significantly limited the operations of
Cimpress' key customer base of micro and small businesses. We
expect this will diminish Cimpress' order volume, revenue, and
EBITDA, and cause leverage to spike above our 4.5x downgrade
threshold in fiscal 2020 from 3.8x as of Dec. 31, 2019." Cimpress
predominantly operates in Europe and North America, where the
spread of COVID-19 has been extensive and social distancing
measures to prevent its spread have forced much of the population
to remain in their homes. This has impaired micro and small
businesses that rely on in-person interaction, likely significantly
reducing Cimpress' sales of specialized business cards, postcards,
signage, and apparel to these customers.

The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty surrounding the
duration and severity of the COVID-19 impact on Cimpress and the
risk that operating performance declines will extend through the
calendar year, with leverage remaining elevated over the next two
years.

S&P said, "We could lower the rating if in-person interactions
remain limited because of the pandemic through the rest of the
calendar year, substantially reducing revenue and EBITDA. In this
scenario, we would expect leverage to remain above 5.25x for an
extended period.

"We could revise the outlook to stable if we see evidence that
Cimpress' customer base of micro and small businesses resumes
normal operations, we expect Cimpress' EBITDA will improve to
pre-virus levels within 12 months, and we expect leverage will
remain in the 4.5x-5.25x range. We could raise the rating back to
'BB-' if the impact of the virus is not as severe as we expect, the
company successfully enacts cost cutting and cash flow preservation
measures, and we expect leverage will return below 4.5x within the
next 12 months."



=========
I T A L Y
=========

ELROND NPL 2017: Moody'c Cuts EUR42.5M Class B Notes Rating to Caa1
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service downgraded the ratings of Class A and B
Notes in Elrond NPL 2017 S.r.l. The rating action reflects slower
than anticipated cash-flows generated from the recovery process on
the non-performing loans (NPLs) and simulation of cashflows from
remaining collateral resulting in lower future recoveries than
previously considered for the assigned ratings, in all scenarios.

EUR 464.0M Class A Notes, Downgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Jul
14, 2017 Assigned Baa3 (sf)

EUR 42.5M Class B Notes, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Jul
14, 2017 Assigned B1 (sf)

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rating action is prompted by slower than anticipated cash-flows
generated from the recovery process on the NPLs and simulation of
cashflows from remaining collateral resulting in lower future
recoveries than previously considered for the assigned ratings, in
all scenarios.

Slower than anticipated cash-flows generated from the recovery
process on the NPLs:

Cumulative Collection Ratio as of the latest reporting date stood
at 72.7%, which means collections are significantly slower than
anticipated in the original Business Plan projections. NPV
Cumulative Profitability Ratio stood at 136.9%, above its
expectations, however it only refers to closed positions while the
key consideration will be the time to process open positions and
the future collections on those.

Simulation of cashflows from remaining collateral resulting in
lower future recoveries than previously considered for the assigned
ratings, in all scenarios:

Moody's makes its own simulations of cashflows generated from the
recoveries of the defaulted loans, their timing and their
volatility depending on future property values.

Reported GBV stood at EUR 1,122.23 million as of December 2019 down
from EUR 1,405.25 at closing. Split was EUR 1,032.9 million secured
and EUR 372.4 unsecured as of November 2016, compared to EUR 799
million secured and EUR 323 unsecured as of December 2019 reporting
date. Moody's has not received information on prior lien loans and
therefore treated loans with a second and lower lien as unsecured.
Same approach was taken for loans for which no reference to a
backing collateral was found in the loan by loan information.
Borrowers are mainly corporates (around 86%) and the pool is mostly
concentrated in the North (about 58%) versus 23% in South and
Islands.

Simulation of cashflows from the remaining pool in light of pool
characteristics, for instance the share of secured loans and the
backing collateral, results in lower recoveries expected in all
scenarios and commensurate with lower ratings. In addition to this,
temporary disruptions related to the coronavirus outbreak will
create an additional backlog of legal proceedings, which will delay
gross recoveries.

The analysis has considered the increased uncertainty relating to
the effect of the outbreak on the Italian economy as well as the
effects that the announced government measures, put in place to
contain the virus, will have on the performance of NPL
transactions. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social
risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial implications
for public health and safety. It is a global health shock, which
makes it extremely difficult to provide an economic assessment. The
degree of uncertainty around its forecasts is unusually high.

Moody's has taken into account the potential cost of the GACS
Guarantee within its cash flow modelling, while any potential
benefit from the guarantee for the senior noteholders has not been
considered in its analysis.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Non-Performing
and Re-Performing Loan Securitizations Methodology" published in
January 2020.

Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the ratings:

Factors or circumstances that could lead to an upgrade of the
ratings include: (1) the recovery process of the non-performing
loans producing significantly higher cash-flows in a shorter time
frame than expected; (2) improvements in the credit quality of the
transaction counterparties; and (3) a decrease in sovereign risk.

Factors or circumstances that could lead to a downgrade of the
ratings include: (1) significantly lower or slower cash-flows
generated from the recovery process on the non-performing loans due
to either a longer time for the courts to process the foreclosures
and bankruptcies, a change in economic conditions from its central
scenario forecast or idiosyncratic performance factors. For
instance, should economic conditions be worse than forecasted and
the sale of the properties generate less cash-flows for the issuer
or take a longer time to sell the properties, all these factors
could result in a downgrade of the ratings; (2) deterioration in
the credit quality of the transaction counterparties; and (3)
increase in sovereign risk.

ESSELUNGA SPA: Moody's Cuts Sr. Unsec. Debt Rating to Ba1
---------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to Ba1 from Baa2 the
ratings on the senior unsecured debt instrument ratings issued by
Esselunga S.p.A., a leading Italian food retailer.

Concurrently, Moody's has withdrawn Esselunga's Baa2 issuer rating
and subsequently assigned the company a Ba1 corporate family
rating, a Ba1-PD probability of default rating, and a Ba1
instrument rating to the EUR1 billion bonds in line with the rating
agency's practice for corporates with non-investment grade ratings.
The outlook is stable.

The rating action follows the announcement that Marina and Giuliana
Caprotti ("majority shareholders"), who currently hold 70% of the
share capital of Supermarkets Italiani S.p.A., the vehicle which in
turn fully owns Esselunga, reached an agreement to purchase the
remaining 30% share capital owned by Violetta and Giuseppe Caprotti
for EUR1,830 million.

This rating action concludes the ratings review process that began
on January 17, 2019, when the proposed transaction was initially
announced.

A newly incorporated company named Superit Finco S.p.A., fully
owned by the majority shareholders, will buy 30% of the shares in
SI. The transaction is expected to close in April and will be
funded through a combination of (1) EUR100 million equity injection
from the majority shareholders; (2) EUR435 million from the sale of
the majority shareholders' 32.5% interest in La Villata S.p.A. ("La
Villata"), the real estate company that owns most of Esselunga's
stores, to a financial investor; (3) EUR550 million bridge facility
with a maximum 15 months maturity to be repaid using Esselunga's
existing cash; and (4) EUR762 million acquisition facility with a
maturity of seven years. The new debt facilities have been raised
by Superit Finco.

Following the transaction, Esselunga will be merged with both
Superit Finco and SI and, as a consequence, will assume the
obligations under the new debt facilities.

"The downgrade to Ba1 from Baa2 reflects the significant debt and
resulting higher leverage that Esselunga will incur to facilitate
the acquisition of the 30% stake by its majority shareholders. The
transaction comes at a time of increased uncertainty given the
difficult retail environment and the weakened economic conditions
owing to the coronavirus outbreak In Italy, and mainly in the
Lombardy region, Esselunga's core market," says Ernesto Bisagno, a
Moody's Vice President - Senior Credit Officer and lead analyst for
Esselunga.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rating action reflects Moody's expectation that Esselunga's
leverage pro forma for the transaction will increase to around 4.3x
at December 2020 from around 2.5x pre-transaction. This material
increase also reflects a change in financial policy with has led to
a more aggressive balance sheet management. However, the limited
cash equity contribution of EUR100 million is partially mitigated
by the fact that the majority shareholders funded the transaction
through the disposal of their minority stake in La Villata. Moody's
understands that the 32.5% equity stake bought by the financial
investor has been converted from ordinary to preferred shares.
These preferred shares, despite being deeply subordinated at La
Villata level, do not receive any equity credit at Esselunga level
as the instrument is issued by a subsidiary, and therefore in a
distressed scenario would be closer to La Villata's assets.

Over 2020-21, Moody's expects Esselunga to continue to grow its
sales through the contribution from its new stores and stronger
online sales, more than offsetting weak organic growth. However,
the rating agency continues to anticipate an increase in operating
costs, which, combined with the competitive retail environment,
could exert pressure on the company's margins. The rating agency
cautions that the unprecedented situation owing to the coronavirus
outbreak leaves its forecasts exposed to increased uncertainty.

Moody's expects operating cash flow to remain stable or modestly
decline depending on the company's ability to continue to improve
working capital, to offset higher interest paid. Moody's assumes
around EUR20 million dividends each year mainly related to the
remuneration paid to the financial investor who has bought the
32.5% stake in La Villata. With capital expenditure of around
EUR400 million each year, the rating agency expects Esselunga to
continue to generate positive free cash flow of around EUR100
million - EUR150 million annually. However, the largest part of the
capital expenditure is discretionary, which gives Esselunga
additional levers to preserve cash flows, albeit temporarily, in
case operating performance deteriorates.

Moody's expects adjusted leverage to increase towards 4.3x in
2020-21. However, the company could use any excess cash to prepay
part of the new acquisition financing which could support an
improvement in credit metrics in 2021.

The leverage calculation at fiscal year-end 2020 is based on total
adjusted gross debt of EUR3 billion which includes (1) EUR1 billion
legacy bonds at Esselunga level, (2) EUR762 million new acquisition
facility, (3) EUR435 million preferred shares issued at La Villata
level; (4) around EUR720 million of lease obligations (including
both finance and operating leases); and (5) approximately EUR100
million of pension liabilities. Currently, there is also EUR300
million of debt at the level of SI that is not factored in Moody's
credit metrics, as the company indicated this debt will be repaid
in 2020.

Despite the weakened credit metrics, the Ba1 rating reflects (1)
Esselunga's defensive business profile and low seasonality; (2) its
well-established position as Italy's fourth-largest grocery
retailer; (3) the company's exposure to some of the wealthiest
parts of Italy; (4) its strong track record of generating stable,
above-average returns for the sector; and (5) expectation that the
company's free cash flow (FCF) generation (after capital spending
and dividends) will remain positive despite the material investment
programme.

The rating also reflects (1) Esselunga's lack of international
diversification and, hence, reliance on economic conditions in
Italy, despite the company's resilient performance during the
financial crisis; (2) its modest size and higher geographical
concentration compared with most other European retailers that
Moody's rates; and (3) the competitive retail environment, which
continues to exert pressure on its margins.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE (ESG) CONSIDERATIONS

Following the transaction, Esselunga will be fully owned by Marina
and Giuliana Caprotti. Despite being privately held, and
notwithstanding the lack of explicit commitment to a leverage
target, the controlling shareholders had historically maintained a
conservative financial policy with no appetite for material
shareholder distributions. However, the transaction suggests a
shift in financial policy which points to a higher leverage
tolerance, due to the fact that a material portion of the purchase
price has been funded with debt.

Moody's also regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk
under the ESG framework, given the substantial implications for
public health and safety. This is particularly relevant for
Esselunga as the company derives around 66% of its earnings in
Lombardy, which so far has been the region most affected by the
outbreak. The exposure to coronavirus is mitigated by the fact that
the company provides fundamental services and, for now, the food
supply chain remains protected by the Italian government despite
having imposed the nationwide lockdown on all the non-essential
activities.

LIQUIDITY

Liquidity is good but will weaken as a result of the transaction.
Cash at December 31, 2019 stood at EUR1.1 billion and is expected
to decline towards EUR400 million at December 2020, as Esselunga
will repay the EUR550 million bridge facility and the EUR300
million outstanding debt at SI, partially offset by positive FCF of
approximately EUR100 million - EUR150 million. In addition, the
company has access to committed bilateral revolving credit
facilities of EUR300 million maturing in August 2022, currently
fully undrawn. There are limited refinancing needs, given the two
EUR500 million bonds outstanding mature in October 2023 and October
2027, while the new acquisition financing will mature in January
2027.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

Esselunga's capital structure includes both bank debt and bonds,
and as a result, Moody's has assumed a 50% family recovery rate,
resulting in a PDR of Ba1-PD. The EUR1 billion bonds are rated Ba1,
in line with the CFR, as the vast majority of debt as sitting at
Esselunga's level, and the bonds rank pari passu.

RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK

The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Esselunga's
performance is likely to be fairly resilient to the unprecedented
economic and social challenges caused by the coronavirus outbreak,
and that leverage will remain at around 4.3x over 2020-21, barring
any debt reduction.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

Upward rating pressure would require an improvement in operating
performance with growing revenues and EBITDA which, combined with a
more prudent financial policy, would result in an improvement in
the company's financial profile. Quantitatively, that would require
(1) adjusted (gross) debt/ EBITDA to reduce towards 3.75x, and (2)
retained cash flow/net debt above 25%.

Downward pressure would be exerted on Esselunga's ratings if (1)
the company's operating performance weakens leading to a Moody's
adjusted (gross) debt/EBITDA ratio above 4.5x; (2) free cash flow
generation turns negative; or (3) liquidity deteriorates.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: Esselunga S.p.A.

Downgrade:

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ba1 from
Baa2

Assignments:

Probability of Default Rating, Assigned Ba1-PD

Corporate Family Rating, Assigned Ba1

Withdrawal:

Issuer Rating, Withdrawn , previously rated Baa2

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Stable From Rating Under Review

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Retail Industry
published in May 2018.

COMPANY PROFILE

Esselunga is a leading food retailer in Italy. In 2019, the company
reported revenues of EUR8.1 billion and EBITDA of EUR717 million.
The company distributes its products through integrated
multichannel capabilities, which included, as of December 31, 2019,
a network of 158 food retail stores, an e-commerce platform and
other sales channels, including 93 cafe bars under the Bar Atlantic
brand and 38 perfumeries through the EsserBella brand sales
channel.

PIAGGIO & C.: S&P Downgrades Rating to B+ Due to Coronavirus Impact
-------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings downgraded Piaggio & C. SPA to 'B+' from 'BB-'.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Europe is likely to weigh on
Piaggio's sales and profit margins in 2020.

Piaggio's credit metrics and liquidity could further deteriorate as
COVID-19 progressively spreads beyond Italy to the rest of Europe.
The rating downgrade primarily reflects our expectation that the
company's profit margins and cash flow generation are likely to be
weaker in 2020. S&P expects the Italian market lockdown to extend
into second-quarter 2020. Coupled with similar lockdowns in other
European markets, this will result in a significant sales decline
in the company's most important sales quarter, ending June 30.
Under S&P's updated base-case scenario, which foresees no growth in
the second half of 2020 against the same period of 2019 and
moderate growth in 2021 of about 2%, S&P expects 2020 sales to
decline by about 10% and adjusted EBITDA margins to fall by about
300 basis points (bps) in 2020 from about 13% in 2019. S&P said,
"Moreover, we see adjusted FFO to debt decreasing to 10%-15% by
year-end 2020, from above 20% at year-end 2019. Given the company's
exposure to Europe, representing about 50% of sales, and its
seasonal working capital, we believe that these metrics are now
more commensurate with a 'B+' rating. Although not included in our
base case, we acknowledge that the company has room to maneuver by
potentially revising capital expenditure (capex) plans, lowering
dividends, and efficiently rightsizing its cost base. Moreover, we
understand that several European governments are introducing
stimulus packages that could alleviate cash needs and improve
EBITDA." Conversely, the negative outlook primarily reflects the
very low visibility on the severity and ultimate length of the
COVID-19 pandemic and its bearing on customer demand, production,
and supply chain operations. This ultimately affects the company's
credit ratios and could have effects on its liquidity.

S&P said, "Liquidity and covenant headroom are adequate under our
revised base-case scenario, however, very severe market conditions
could drag on Piaggio's liquidity.  As of Dec. 31, 2019, we
estimate that Piaggio has more than EUR360 million of liquidity
sources available (about EUR150 million of cash that we estimate
will be accessible and EUR215 million of committed credit
facilities), which should enable the company to meet its short-term
debt maturities, capex, and high seasonal working capital needs.
Under our current base case, we foresee that those liquidity
sources should be sufficient to deal with the likely drop in
second-quarter demand in Europe. Nevertheless, we note that the
second quarter is the most important for Piaggio in terms of
operating cash flow generation.

"Good market momentum for the first two months of 2020 has been
erased by the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe.  We understand that the
first two months of 2020 were very supportive in terms of sales,
with all markets contributing to revenue growth above that seen in
the same period of 2019. However, the lock down Italian market
since March 2020, followed by several other European countries,
will likely materially dent consumer demand starting in the second
quarter of 2020. In 2019, sales from Europe and the Americas
represented about 60% of Piaggio's turnover.

"The negative outlook reflects the risk that we may need to further
revise downward our current base case if the COVID-19 pandemic
continues beyond the second quarter and in other geographies. This
could result in Piaggio's credit metrics and liquidity position
materially deteriorating, absent management's quick actions to
proactively tackle the downside risk.

"We could downgrade Piaggio if the company's cash position,
including its available committed revolving credit facility (RCF),
were to fall below EUR200 million, or if its covenant headroom were
to reduce to 15% or below, leading liquidity sources over uses to
likely fall below 1.2x. Furthermore, prospects of materially
negative free operating cash flow (FOCF) and adjusted leverage
sustainably above 5.0x would result in a downgrade.

"We could revise the outlook to stable if Piaggio withstood the
COVID-19 pandemic's effects by showing FFO to debt above 15% and an
adequate liquidity profile by year-end 2020."


SOCIETA DI PROGETTO: Fitch Downgrades Sr. Sec. Notes Rating to BB+
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings downgraded Societa di Progetto Brebemi S.p.A.'s
senior secured class A1, A2 and A3 notes to 'BB+' from 'BBB-' and
placed them on Rating Watch Negative.

RATING RATIONALE

The rating actions reflect its expectation that Brebemi's senior
secured class A1 and A2 notes' credit profile and metrics will be
affected by a severe, albeit potentially relatively short-lived,
demand shock related to the coronavirus pandemic, amid a relatively
rigid operating and financial structure where flexibilities are
minimal. The decline in traffic will likely delay Brebemi's ongoing
traffic ramp up, which Fitch now expects to last until 2026.

Brebemi's liquidity position is comfortable as cash available and
the debt service reserve account (DSRA) is sufficient to cover next
18 months debt service. Nevertheless, under the revised Fitch
Rating Case (FRC), Fitch expects the issuer will partially tap its
liquidity this year to make up for a marginal shortfall in free
cash flow generation.

Fitch currently assumes the 2020 shock will be progressively
recovered by 2021 and the ramp-up to continue from then. Fitch will
revise its FRC if the severity and duration of the outbreak is
longer than expected.

The rating action on Brebemi's senior secured zero coupon notes
(class A3) reflects cross default provisions with the class A1 and
A2 notes, which Fitch now assesses as riskier than the grantor's
(Concessioni Autostradali Lombarde) obligation to pay the terminal
value at concession maturity.

The RWN reflects a likely breach in the default historical debt
service coverage (DSCR) ratio covenant by December 2020 and related
uncertainty about the noteholders option to accelerate the debt or
waive the event of default. Fitch notes that under the existing
documentation, if the senior creditors do not act for 12 months and
the event of default is continuing, the junior noteholders are
entitled to take enforcement actions. Fitch will  monitor the
evolving situation and will react once Fitch has more visibility on
the process over the next few months.

Brebemi operates a 62km toll road stretch positioned in the middle
of Italy's most affected area in terms of number of coronavirus
cases. It directly links Brescia and Milan. Codogno/Lodi and
Bergamo are located south and north of Brebemi's asset,
respectively. Fitch believes this geographical position makes the
asset more vulnerable to traffic stress and will also take longer
to recover than the average Italian toll road network.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Coronavirus Outbreak Affecting Demand

The rapidly spreading of coronavirus is leading to an unprecedented
impact on people and to a lesser extent, freight mobility. Fitch
expects Brebemi's traffic to have materially contracted from the
week following the Italian government's decision to impose a
nationwide lockdown, mainly driven by the absence of commuter
traffic to and from Milan. Under its revised rating case, Fitch
assumes traffic to fall by 20% in 1Q20 and escalate to 50% in 2Q20.
Fitch assumes traffic to gradually recover thereafter but to remain
below 20% and 10% yoy in, 3Q20 and 4Q20, respectively, so that the
annual decline is 25% for 2020. From 2021 Fitch assumes traffic to
progressively normalise while ramp up should resume albeit from a
lower base than Fitch assumed in last year FRC, resulting in a
lower traffic profile than last year at least until 2026.

Few Defensive Measures

Opex is relatively rigid as most of it is related to an operation
and maintenance agreement with Argentea under which Fitch
understands there is little to no flexibility. There is virtually
no capex as the asset is brand new.

Fitch notes that under the concession agreement, the concessionaire
is entitled to ask for the rebalancing of the concession due to the
traffic shortfall, which could happen in the context of the
approval of the next regulatory business plan in 2022. Nonetheless,
Fitch notes that the Italian transport authority (Autorita di
Regolazione dei Trasporti or ART) has not yet issued detailed
guidelines related to the Brebemi concession. Also, there remains
limited visibility whether the traffic shortfall will be recovered
in the short term (price, grants) or in the longer term (terminal
value).

Reducing Coverage

Under the updated FRC, Fitch expects the traffic shock to reduce
the 2020 DSCR to slightly below 1x and for it to progressively
recovery thereafter, remaining below 1.4x until at least 2025 when
the ramp up period should end. Fitch is now forecasting the average
DSCR until 2025 to be 1.2x, increasing to 1.4x afterwards.

Fitch is closely monitoring developments in the sector as Brebemi's
operating environment has substantially worsened. Fitch will
revise the FRC if the severity and duration of the coronavirus
outbreak is longer than expected.

Sound Liquidity Under FRC

As of February 2020, Brebemi had EUR44 million under the nine month
DSRA in addition to EUR40 million of available cash, which Fitch
expects the issuer to tap in order to make up for the moderate
shortfall in free cash flow generation (after debt service). Under
the updated FRC, Fitch expects total liquidity at end 2020 to be
around EUR80 million which compares with 2021 debt service of EUR62
million.

Likely Covenant Breach

Without flexibility on costs/opex, Fitch expects the traffic shock
in 1H20 to lead to a breach of the 1.05x threshold under the
historical DSCR default covenants by December 2020, before
progressively increasing to 1.4x in 2026.

As per financial documentation, the historical DSCR threshold below
1.05x triggers an event of default whereby senior creditors may
take enforcement action and ask for acceleration of the debt. Fitch
notes that at any time after the date falling 12 months after the
occurrence of an event of default (which is still continuing and
has not been waived by the senior creditors) junior creditors may
be entitled to take enforcement action. Fitch will  monitor the
evolving situation and react once Fitch has more visibility on the
process over the next few months.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action:

  - Resolution of the RWN will focus on management of the expected
default covenant breach

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action:

  - A failure or inaction by senior creditors to waive the breach
would lead to a multi-notch downgrade

  - An escalation or a protraction in restricting measures leading
to traffic declines beyond its expectations would put additional
pressure on the rating

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

Brebemi has raised around EUR2 billion to refinance its bank debt
and fund the unwinding of a substantial portion (70%) of the
negative mark-to-market on the interest rate swap. The debt raised
is split into senior - fully amortising and zero coupon notes - and
junior debt.

  - Revenue Risk Volume : Midrange
  
  - Revenue Risk Price: Midrange

  - Infrastructure Development & Renewal: Stronger

  - Debt Structure - Fully Amortising Debt: Stronger

The coronavirus outbreak and related government containment
measures worldwide create an uncertain global environment for toll
road traffic in the short term. While Brebemi's performance data
through most recently available issuer data may not have indicated
impairment, material changes in revenue and cost profile are
occurring across the toll road sector and Europe and are likely to
worsen in the coming weeks and months as economic activity suffers
and government restrictions are maintained or expanded. Fitch's
ratings are forward-looking in nature, and Fitch will monitor
developments in the sector as a result of the coronavirus outbreak
as it relates to severity and duration, and incorporate revised
base and rating case qualitative and quantitative inputs based on
expectations for future performance and assessment of key risks.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).



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L U X E M B O U R G
===================

ADECOAGRO SA: Moody's Affirms Ba2 CFR, Alters Outlook to Neg.
-------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed Adecoagro S.A.'s Ba2
Corporate Family Rating and the Ba2 rating on its senior unsecured
rating. Outlook changed to negative from stable.

Outlook Actions:

Issuer: Adecoagro S.A.

Outlook, Changed To Negative From Stable

Affirmations:

Issuer: Adecoagro S.A.

Corporate Family Rating, Affirmed Ba2

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Sep 21, 2027, Affirmed
Ba2

RATINGS RATIONALE

The negative outlook reflects its expectation that Adecoagro gross
leverage will remain high for the rating level and risk profile, at
around 3.5x, due to lower than estimated EBITDA for 2020 following
a sharp decline in international oil prices. The base case scenario
incorporates a Moody's Adjusted EBITDA of $324 million for 2020, or
-7.6% lower year-on-year.

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The Brazilian
sugar-ethanol sector will be affected by lower commodity prices and
consumer demand. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a
social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial
implications for public health and safety.

Adecoagro's Ba2 ratings incorporate its position in Brazil´s
sugar-ethanol sector, including the economies of scale because of
the large size of its plants, high productivity levels, which allow
for one of the lowest cost profiles compared with local peers.
Adequate credit metrics and conservative financial policies are
also key credit considerations, especially in light of the
industry's inherent price volatility. The experienced management
team and diversification into agricultural products in Argentina
are additional credit positives. In order to mitigate the impact of
lower ethanol and sugar prices in the near term, Moody's believes
Adecoagro will be able to increase crushing in 2020 to over 11.5
million tons, compared to 10.8 million tons in 2019, helping to
increase cost dilution in 2020. This is because Adecoagro has
maintained a high level of investments to increase sugarcane
availability and it postponed some of its crushing from 2019 to
2020, after weather events delayed expected sugarcane growth last
year.

Raw material concentration in one region is a constraint for the
company. Adecoagro is also exposed to volatility in agriculture
commodities prices. Other constraints include the company's small
scale compared with its global peers, and its country risk exposure
to Argentina (Government of Argentina, Caa2 RUR) and Brazil
(Government of Brazil, Ba2 stable). Adecoagro's liquidity was
adequate as of December 2019 with cash of $290 million and
short-term borrowings of $188 million. Gross leverage was 3.4x in
December 2019 and it currently expects it to close 2020 at 3.5x.

Rating Outlook

The negative outlook reflects its expectation that Adecoagro cash
generation will be challenged by deteriorating fundamentals in the
sugar-ethanol market and that gross leverage will remain high for
the rating level and risk profile of Adecoagro.

The ratings could be downgraded in case of a deterioration in the
company´s liquidity profile, profitability or credit metrics.
Quantitatively, a downgrade could happen if Debt/EBITDA remains
above 3.5x or EBITA/Interest Expense remains below 2.0x.

An upgrade would require increased production diversification,
sustained free cash flow generation and an improvement in liquidity
profile, with a cash balance that consistently covers its
short-term obligations. Quantitatively an upgrade would require
Debt/EBITDA below 2.0x and EBITA/Interest Expense above 5.0x.

Adecoagro S.A., the group's ultimate parent company, is
headquartered in Luxembourg and it generated sales of $887 million
for the last twelve months ending December 31, 2019. An average of
63% of these sales were generated by the Brazilian operations in
the last three years. The company is primarily engaged in
agricultural and agro-industrial activities into three segments:
(i) sugar-ethanol and energy, mainly in Brazil; (ii) farming,
including the production and commercialization of soy, corn, wheat,
rice, dairy and others, and (iii) land transformation. In the LTM
the company´s consolidated EBITDA reached $350 million with a
margin of 39.5%.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Protein and
Agriculture published in May 2019.

ARCELORMITTAL S.A.: Egan-Jones Cuts Sr. Unsec. Debt Ratings to BB+
------------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company, on March 19, 2020, downgraded the
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by ArcelorMittal S.A. to BB+ from BBB-.

ArcelorMittal S.A. is a multinational steel manufacturing
corporation headquartered in Luxembourg City. It was formed in 2006
from the takeover and merger of Arcelor by Indian-owned Mittal
Steel.




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N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================

INTERXION HOLDING: Moody's Withdraws B1 CFR on Debt Repayment
-------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has withdrawn the B1 corporate family
rating, the B1-PD probability of default rating, the B1 rating on
the EUR1.2 billion senior unsecured notes due 2025 and the ratings
under review outlook of Interxion Holding N.V. The rating action
follows the full repayment of the company's senior secured notes.

At the time of withdrawal, the ratings were on review for upgrade
following the announcement that Digital Realty Trust, Inc. (Baa2
stable) had agreed to acquire Interxion, for an enterprise value of
around USD8.4 billion. The acquisition closed on March 12, 2020.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Moody's has decided to withdraw the ratings because Interxion's
debt previously rated by Moody's has been fully repaid.

COMPANY PROFILE

Interxion Holding N.V. is a provider of carrier-neutral internet
data center services and leases out co-location space in more than
50 data centers across 13 markets located in 11 European countries,
offering its customers power, cooling and a secure environment to
house their servers, network, storage and IT infrastructure. The
company has 159,800 square meters of equipped space across its
footprint. In the 12 months ended September 30, 2019, Interxion
reported revenue of EUR616 million and adjusted EBITDA of EUR308
million.



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N O R W A Y
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AKER BP: Moody's Affirms Ba1 CFR, Alters Outlook to Neg.
--------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service affirmed the Ba1 Corporate Family Rating
and Ba1-PD Probability of Default Rating of Aker BP ASA's as well
as the Ba1 ratings assigned to its senior unsecured notes.
Concurrently, Moody's changed Aker BP's outlook to negative from
stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The Ba1 rating reflects the solid position held by Aker BP as a
mid-sized oil and gas exploration and production company on the
Norwegian Continental Shelf, where it benefits from a stable
operating environment and attractive oil and gas tax regime
reducing the tax burden in a low oil price environment. Aker BP's
operating profile is underpinned by sizeable 2P reserves of 906
million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) representing 11.7 years
of production of around 212 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per
day (kboepd) based on the mid-point of the range projected for 2020
following the successful start-up of the Johan Sverdrup field in
October 2019. It benefits from low operating costs down to around
$7-8/boe following the recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone
against the US dollar. In addition, in line with its risk
management policy, Aker BP has put options in place that cover
approximately 60% of the net after tax value of the its expected
oil production in H1 2020 at an average strike price of
approximately $54 per barrel.

The rating also reflects Aker BP's robust financial profile, with
Moody's-adjusted total debt to EBITDA estimated at 1.5x at year-end
2019. In response to the high uncertainty caused by the coronavirus
outbreak, management decided to cut capex and exploration spend by
20% to around $1.2 billion and $400 million respectively in 2020,
as non-sanctioned field development projects are put on hold, while
capex may drop below $1 billion p.a. in 2021-2022 should the
current low oil price environment persist. These actions will help
conserve cash, protect the group's financial position and limit the
increase in leverage.

While the revised dividend plan set out in early 2019 projected
increase in payout over the future years, management announced on
March 23, 2020 that decisions on dividend distributions in the
coming quarters will depend on how oil prices and the coronavirus
outbreak develop, and impact it will have on the company's balance
sheet and liquidity position.

However, the rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The E&P sector has
been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the shock
given its sensitivity to demand and oil prices.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. The action reflects the impact on Aker BP of the
breadth and severity of the shock, and the deterioration in credit
quality it has triggered.

The revision in outlook to negative reflects (i) the heightened
uncertainty resulting from the coronavirus outbreak in the near
term, including potential operational disruptions and loss of
production; and (ii) the negative effect an extended period of low
oil prices would have on Aker BP's operating profitability and
leverage.

However, should the risks arising from the coronavirus outbreak
abate in the coming months while Aker BP continues to demonstrate a
resilient operating profile and robust financial position, Moody's
would likely consider a stabilisation of the outlook.

LIQUIDITY

Aker BP's liquidity position is robust. At the end of Q4 2019, the
group had $107 million in cash and cash equivalents and $2.55
billion available under its $4 billion RCF, which comprises a
3-year $2 billion working capital facility and a 5-year $2 billion
liquidity facility. Following the issuance of $1.5 billion in new
bonds in January 2020, Aker BP has available cash and undrawn
credit facilities of approximately $3.9 billion as of 20 March
2020.

This leaves the group with ample liquidity to repay its NOK1.9
billion ($227 million) bond falling due in July 2020 and meet
short-term lease debt obligations of around $120 million in the
next 12 months. The group's next bond maturity of $400 million
falls due in July 2022.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING - UP

The rating could be upgraded to Baa3 if Aker BP demonstrates the
ability to: (i) sustain a production profile in excess of 250
kboepd while achieving a reserve replacement rate of no less than
100%; ii) pursue financial policies which ensure that adjusted
retained cash flow (RCF) to total debt is maintained above 40% on a
sustained basis; and (iii) materially strengthen its FCF generating
capacity amid a constant need to access and develop new hydrocarbon
resources. The rating upgrade would also require the group to
maintain a strong liquidity profile.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING - DOWN

The rating could be downgraded to Ba2 if: (i) average production
falls below 150 kboepd on a sustained basis; (ii) Aker BP's
financial profile materially deteriorates and leverage increases so
that adjusted RCF to total debt falls below 20% for an extended
period of time. The rating could also be downgraded should the
group's liquidity profile significantly weaken.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Independent
Exploration and Production Industry published in May 2017.

Aker BP ASA is a Norwegian oil and gas company primarily involved
in the exploration, development and production of petroleum
resources on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. Its production assets
are entirely located in Norway and the company operates around 97%
of its producing fields. In 2019, Aker BP reported an average
production (on a working interest basis) of 156 kboepd, revenues of
$3.35 billion and proved plus probable (2P) reserves of 906 million
barrels of oil equivalent. Aker BP is owned 40% by Aker ASA, 30% by
BP p.l.c. (A1 stable) and the remaining is free float.



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R U S S I A
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TRANSCONTAINER PJSC: Fitch Downgrades LT IDR to BB-, On Watch Neg.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Russia-based transportation company
PJSC TransContainer's Foreign- and Local-Currency Long-Term Issuer
Default Ratings and senior unsecured rating to 'BB-' from 'BB+' and
maintained them on Rating Watch Negative.

The downgrade follows the acquisition of a majority stake in TC by
LLC Management Company Delo (MC Delo) and reflects its view of MC
Delo's consolidated credit profile. Fitch views the links between
TC and MC Delo as strong, as delineated in Fitch's Parent and
Subsidiary Rating Linkage Criteria and Fitch believes there is no
effective ring-fence protection around TC.

The RWN reflects the anticipated deterioration in the group's
consolidated credit profile if MC Delo pushes ahead with a
debt-funded acquisition of the remaining shares in TC through a
mandatory tender offer. Fitch expects to resolve the RWN once Fitch
has confirmed details of the updated consolidated credit profile
following the mandatory tender offer.

MC Delo has a stevedore business through wholly-owned LLC DeloPorts
(BB-/RWN) and 30.75% owned Global Ports Investment plc as well as a
transportation business through 50%+2 shares owned by TC and
wholly-owned Ruscon Ltd.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Consolidated Profile Constrains Rating: TC's ratings are capped by
MC Delo's consolidated credit profile, which Fitch currently views
as commensurate with 'BB-'. The constraint on TC's rating takes
into consideration the strong legal ties between TC and MC Delo and
its view that MC Delo can move cash around the consolidated
perimeter if needed. Fitch views MC Delo's commitment to maintain
TC's net debt/EBITDA below 3.0x as insufficient to ring-fence TC,
given MC Delo's high dependence on TC's cash flows (around 75% of
the group's EBITDA) to meet its debt service requirements.

In addition, MC Delo's majority ownership, which may increase to
100% after the mandatory offer, and the high likelihood of TC's
board of directors being dominated by Delo representatives, further
strengthen the operational linkage. TC's dividend policy envisages
distributing at least 25% of net income under Russian accounting
standards, but in Fitch's view the pay-out ratio may be increased
after the new board of directors is elected. TC shares are pledged
against the loan at the parent level.

Further Acquisition Credit Negative: Fitch envisages the
consolidated credit profile will weaken and likely become
commensurate with 'B+' if Delo Group increases its share in TC,
funded by debt. Prior to further acquisition, the consolidated
funds from operations (FFO) lease-adjusted net leverage will
average at 3.5x over 2020-23, which is strong for the 'BB-' rating.
If the mandatory offer is accepted by the remaining shareholders
and if the tender offer is debt-funded, Fitch expects leverage
metrics will significantly weaken, leading to a downgrade at least
by one-notch. The tender offer concluded on March 25, 2020 with
results to be announced thereafter.

Coronavirus Outbreak Adds Pressure: Fitch expects the company's
operational performance will be negatively impacted by the
coronavirus outbreak, given the expected slowdown in the economic
activities globally and TC's exposure to import and export volumes
to/from China as well as other borders. Fitch forecasts transported
volume will substantially decline during the outbreak of the
coronavirus, mitigated by the expected quick recovery in goods flow
once the situation eases.

Fitch believes the recent oil price slump which led to rouble
devaluation will have a smaller and manageable impact as 100% of
TC's debt is rouble-denominated and only around 15% of its revenue
is foreign currency denominated.

Market Leading Position: TC's market share decreased to 42% in 9M19
from 48% in 2015, but it is still far above its next biggest
competitor, which has just 10%. The company has a strong asset
base, with around 28.5 thousand of flatcars, 75.5 thousand of
ISO-containers and 61 railway container terminals across key
locations in Russia, Kazakhstan and Slovakia. TC also has strong
customer diversification, with the top 10 customers accounting for
30% of revenue and no single customer having a share higher than
7%.

Cargo mix is skewed towards high-value, premium cargoes -
chemicals, timber, metal ware, pulp and paper, auto parts. This
contrasts well with the overall cargo mix on the Russian rail
network, which is predominantly raw materials such as coal, oil and
oil products, construction materials and metal ores.

Growing Integrated Logistics Services: Fitch believes the growing
portion of integrated services in TC's business is positive as
operational efficiency with possible cost-cutting and customer
retention may be achieved. Integrated freight forwarding and
logistics services are bundled package services including rail
container transportation, terminal handling, truck deliveries,
freight forwarding and logistics services. Adjusted revenue from
integrated services was up 24% yoy in 2019 after 20% growth in
2018. Fitch expects integrated services to contribute more at 85%
of adjusted revenue during the rating horizon.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

TC's 'BB-' IDR is capped by MC Delo's consolidated profile, the
company's new controlling shareholder with 50%+2 shares. TC's
unconstrained credit profile reflects the company's strong 42%
share of total rail container transportation in Russia in 9M19,
historically moderate leverage and diversification in cargo and
customers. Compared with other rolling stock peers, JSC Freight One
or Globaltrans Investment Plc (both BBB-/Stable), TC is smaller and
has higher exposure to price and volume volatility because it
operates mostly on the spot market and containers have higher
sensitivity to the economic cycle than commodities. This is
partially offset by a less fragmented container market and TC's
stronger growth prospects due to low containerisation levels in
Russia.

The financial profiles of Freight One and TC are similarly strong,
but the latter may weaken following an expected change in its
capital structure after the acquisition of a controlling stake by
MC Delo.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Fitch's Key Assumptions Within Its Rating Case for the Issuer

  - Russian GDP growth of 1% in 2020 and 2% thereafter;

  - Inflation of 4.3% in 2020 and 4% thereafter;

  - Container transportation volumes to stay flat in 2020 due to
the coronavirus outbreak, with above GDP growth thereafter;

  - Container transportation rates to grow in line with inflation;

  - Dividend payments of 70% of net income over 2020-23;

  - Average interest rate for new borrowings of 9%

  - Average capex of around RUB11 billion annually over 2020-2023,
which is in line with management's guidance

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action

  - Weaker consolidated credit profile of MC Delo due to among
other things, debt-funded acquisition of the remaining shares in
TC, new financial policy financial policy and/or weaker operational
performance leading to FFO adjusted net leverage above 4.3x or net
adjusted debt/operating EBITDAR above 3.8x and FFO fixed-charge
cover below 2.5x on a sustained basis.

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action

  - TC's rating is capped by the consolidated credit profile of MC
Delo. The ability to maintain FFO lease-adjusted net leverage below
4.3x or net adjusted debt/operating EBITDAR below 3.8x and FFO
fixed-charge coverage above 2.5x on a sustained basis for MC Delo's
consolidated credit profile after the determination of the new
ownership and capital structure may result in resolution of the RWN
and affirmation with a Stable Outlook.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Adequate Liquidity: At end-3Q19 cash and cash equivalents of RUB4.4
billion and an available credit line of RUB3 billion from
Raiffeisen Bank were sufficient to cover short-term debt of RUB2.6
billion. Fitch expects TC to generate negative free cash flow in
2020 mainly due to expansionary capex, which may add to funding
requirements. However, the majority of capex is flexible and
subject to market conditions.

SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS

Gain from disposal of property, plant and equipment, gain from the
sale of inventory and change in provision for impairment of
receivables and property, plant and equipment are excluded from
EBITDA calculation.

Fitch treats 'Financial guarantee for investment in joint venture'
as debt. Fitch also treats the difference between the total amount
of guarantee and the portion recognised on TC's balance sheet as
the company's off-balance debt, which is included in the metrics
calculation.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).

UGI INTERNATIONAL: Fitch Affirms BB+ LT IDR, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed UGI International, LLC's Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating at 'BB+' with Stable Outlook.

The affirmation and Stable Outlook reflect Fitch's expectation of
no dividend payment during 2020 after the advanced dividend paid in
2019. This will allow UGII to deleverage during 2020 and 2021 from
elevated levels above its rating sensitivities at FYE19 and FYE20
(financial year end to September).

Fitch expects UGII's commercial sales to be hit by the COVID-19
pandemic. However, Fitch also expects the company to be able to
continue managing its unit margin under various operating
conditions, retain financial flexibility and comfortable liquidity
through the market shock, and to fully repay its revolving credit
facilities (RCF) by 2021. Inability to maintain unit margin under a
more prolonged effect of the pandemic, would put pressure on UGII's
metrics and likely lead to a negative rating action.

The rating is also underpinned by UGII's leading market position as
a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) distributor in Europe, with a solid
business profile with diversification by customer and supplier.
UGII's credit profile is constrained by limited organic growth
potential, reflecting the company's concentration of operations in
the EU and smaller scale than that of investment-grade-rated
peers.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

COVID-19 to Pressure 2020 Sales: Fitch expects LPG consumption to
decline in 2020, particularly in western Europe (65% of UGII's
revenue), in turn affecting EBITDA and credit metrics. Fitch
estimates the COVID-19 pandemic to impact UGII commercial
customers' consumption (which represents around 60% of total
volumes). Thus Fitch has conservatively revised downward its
rating-case assumptions and forecasts UGII's LPG distribution
monthly average volumes to fall in April-May 2020, before starting
to gradually recover to yield a LPG distribution volume decline of
15% for 2020. However, this may partially be offset by an increase
since March in residential customers' consumption for cooking and
heating houses.

Lower LPG Price Assumptions: Fitch has cut its LPG prices
assumptions following its recent revision of short- and medium-term
oil and natural gas price decks due to an expected large market
oversupply in 2020. However, Fitch assumes falling propane prices
may, to a certain extent, allow UGII to protect margins by delaying
benefits being passed onto end-customers. Fitch also views UGII's
management as experienced and focused on cost efficiency, which
allows the company to pass on weakening input price changes to
customers.

Fixed-Price Contracts Hedged: Long-term margins have been fairly
stable despite volume and pricing volatility, with higher margins
in retail and tighter mark-up for bulk customers. The contracts of
most UGII customers have pricing arrangements, whereby prices
fluctuate with changes in propane spot prices. Around 10% of UGII's
profits are derived from fixed-price contracts, for which sold
volumes are hedged with forward contracts.

Deleveraging by 2021 Expected: Fitch expects COVID-19 to pressure
UGII's LPG distribution volumes and therefore credit metrics
compared with its previous estimate. This may result in low
leverage headroom or a breach of its negative rating sensitivity of
funds from operations (FFO) adjusted net leverage (3.0x) to 3.5x at
FYE20. This is expected to recover by FYE21 to 2.6x and average
2.5x over 2021-2024, based on its current assumptions.

Solid Credit Metrics: Despite the expected COVID-19 pressure, UGII
has a solid financial profile, with flexible capex and dividends.
Fitch expects it to remain well-placed relative to its Fitch-rated
peers based on an average FFO- adjusted net leverage below 3.0x and
FFO fixed-charge coverage above 6.0x over 2020-2024. Given UGII's
moderate capex, Fitch estimates the company will generate steady
cash from operations above USD200 million a year, and an average
post-dividend free cash flow (FCF) of USD15 million annually over
2021-2024. In addition, UGII does not have a minimum dividend
policy, which adds to financial flexibility.

Elevated 2019 Leverage on Acquisitions: During 2019 UGII had paid
advanced dividends totalling USD386 million to its parent UGI Corp
to support two significant acquisitions - Amerigas MLP buy-in and
Columbia Midstream. These dividends were mostly funded by UGII's
revolving credit facilities (RCF) totalling EUR300 million, of
which USD180 million was draw-down at end-February 2020. According
to management, UGII will not pay further dividends to UGI Corp
until its RCF is fully repaid, which is expected by end-May 2020.
Inability to repay the RCF before 2021 may put pressure on UGII's
ratings.

Comfortable Liquidity through the Downturn: As of end-February 2020
UGII held cash and cash-equivalent balances of USD235 million and
undrawn committed credit lines of EUR137 million, available until
2023. This compared with short-term maturities of USD180 million,
moderate capex expectations and zero dividends in 2020. All this
should result in a healthy liquidity position to allow UGII to
operate through the market downturn and to generate positive FCF
during 2020-2024. UGII's senior unsecured EUR350 million notes are
due in 2025.

Supply Chain and Distributions: UGII has good security of supply
with almost half of the propane coming from the North Sea region
close to Norway (40%) and the UK, and remaining portion from west
and north Africa, the US, Middle East and Russia. It also has
multiple modes of transport of supply including trucks, railcars
and ships. UGII has an extensive storage network throughout Europe.
Potential supply disruptions of a few days can easily be mitigated
by UGII's own flexibilities (contractual, inventories, cross-border
etc.). Longer disruption might pressure supply but could partially
be mitigated by UGII suppliers' strong position in neighboring
countries, which would assist the country where the disruption is.

Rating on Standalone Basis: The IDR reflects UGII's standalone
credit profile (SCP), because Fitch assesses the legal, operational
and strategic ties between the company and its ultimate majority
shareholder, UGI Corp, as moderate in accordance with Fitch's
Parent and Subsidiary Rating Linkage methodology. While UGI Corp
has strong operational control over UGII, the legal ties are
limited, as UGII's EUR350 million notes and EUR300 million term
loan are non-recourse to the parent, with no guarantees or
cross-default provisions. Although UGII raises debt independently,
the parent has supported its growth funding.

Growth through Acquisitions: UGII is a leading distributor of LPG
in Europe with an advantage of scale compared with many competitors
and moderate geographic diversification. It plans to grow through
further LPG market consolidation, as in the past, by acquiring the
LPG businesses of oil majors (BP, Shell, Total in 2015). This would
enable cost savings by acquiring and optimising supply and
distribution channels in existing markets. LPG is a by-product and
not a focus of major energy companies, which continue to divest
their LPG operations. UGII is also considering expansion into
markets that it currently does not serve, which could enhance its
scale and operating profile. However, debt-financed M&A could
adversely affect the credit profile.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Fitch considers Fitch-rated fuel retail operators, such as Vivo
Energy plc (Vivo, BB+/Stable), Puma Energy Holdings Pte Ltd (Puma,
BB-/Stable) and EG Group Limited (EG Group, B/Stable) as UGII's
peers. Vivo and Puma have more diversified businesses with
integrated downstream and midstream operations. Puma is more
geographically diversified in emerging markets. Fitch views the
less volatile operating and stronger governance environment in
Europe for UGII, compared with emerging markets, as a mitigating
factor for the weak demand trend in the continent. EG Group is a
leading independent petrol station operator in Europe.

UGII has a strong cash-generative profile with neutral-to-positive
FCF (after dividends) and higher average EBITDA margin than peers.
This is due to a higher margin on retail propane/LPG sales (for
home heating and cooking as well as industrial use) than that of
Puma and Vivo, which are focused on highly competitive and
low-margin retail motor fuel sales. UGII has a stronger financial
profile with lower FFO adjusted net leverage than Puma and EG
Group, while Vivo has lower leverage than UGII. All three peers are
slightly less capital-intensive than UGII.

UGII is better-positioned than its sister company, AmeriGas
Partners, L.P. (APU, BB/Stable), which is also a large propane
retailer; the latter operates, however, in a highly fragmented US
market with about a 15% market share. APU has neutral to negative
FCF, much higher Fitch-estimated leverage, but a stronger EBITDA
margin. Its margin benefits from its ability to compete with small
retail propane distributors in the US and use its size to lower or
eliminate overhead costs while maintaining sales. Additionally, APU
has become adept at managing EBITDA and gross margins, even in an
environment of contracting sales and volatile propane prices.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - Eurozone GDP down in 2020 but growing in 2021; inflation of
1.3% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021

  - USD/EUR and GBP/USD rates of 0.9 and 1.3, respectively for
2020-2021

  - LPG volumes decline around 15% in 2020, and to recover to
historical average from 2021

  - Net sales by unit decline following Fitch's revision of short-
and medium-term oil and natural gas price decks over 2020-2021 to
USD41/barrel and USD48/barrel, respectively

  - No dividends for 2020 and an average USD130million annually
over 2021-2024

  - Annual average capex of around USD100 million over 2020-2024

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action

  - Increased scale of business while maintaining solid market
shares within the countries it operates in, and without impairing
profitability.

  - FFO adjusted net leverage below 2.0x, with FFO fixed charge
cover above 6x for the next four years.

  - Positive FCF generation with FCF margin of above 5% up to
2024.

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action

  - Inability to deleverage by 2021, with weaker-than-expected
financial performance or aggressive mostly debt-funded M&A,
resulting in FFO adjusted net leverage persistently higher than
3.0x and FFO fixed charge coverage below 4.0x up to 2024.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Comfortable Liquidity: As of February 2020, UGII held cash and cash
equivalent balances of USD235 million and undrawn committed credit
lines of EUR137 million that are available until 2023. This
compares with short-term maturities of USD181 million, as well as
Fitch-expected positive FCF of USD132 million for 2020.

Extended Maturities, Simplified Group Structure: UGII's EUR350
million seven-year senior unsecured notes ranks pari passu with an
unsecured EUR300 million loan with bullet repayment in 2023, and a
EUR300 million revolving credit facility (RCF) available until
2023, USD180 million of which is expected by management to be
repaid by end-May 2020.

Since end-2018 UGII has managed to simplify its debt structure with
repayment of the debt at operating company level and replacing it
by debt at the holding company level. This refinancing extended the
repayment schedule and eased debt management.

Debt Guarantees: All three instruments share the same guarantors.
The bonds are guaranteed by subsidiaries representing about 80% of
UGII's EBITDA with the two main French guarantors representing
around two-thirds of UGII's total EBITDA. There is no prior-ranking
debt at the operating companies.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).



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S P A I N
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BAHIA DE LAS ISLETAS: Moody's Cuts CFR to Caa2, Outlook Neg.
------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service downgraded the corporate family rating of
Bahia De Las Isletas, S.L., a holding company owner of Spanish
ferry operator Naviera Armas, to Caa2 from B3, and its probability
of default rating to Caa2-PD from B3-PD. At the same time, Moody's
has downgraded Naviera Armas, S.A.'s senior secured notes to Caa2
from B3. The outlook remains negative on both entities.

"The decision to downgrade Naviera by two notches reflects Moody's
expectations that the spread of the coronavirus in Spain will
negatively impact the company's operations and profitability, but
more specifically the company's liquidity in the first half of
2020" said Guillaume Leglise, Moody's lead analyst for Naviera and
Assistant Vice President.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The transportation
sector is one of the sectors most significantly affected by the
shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment.

The rating agency believes that the nationwide lockdown imposed by
the Spanish authorities a few days ago will materially affect
passengers' demand in the Canary Islands and Balearic Islands, and
will potentially lead to a suspension of certain maritime routes.
As such, Moody's expects Naviera's ferry activities to face
material operational disruptions in the coming months, leading to a
significant deterioration of the company's financial profile.

More specifically, the weaknesses in Naviera's credit profile,
including its tight liquidity and high fixed-cost structure, have
left it vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in these
unprecedented operating conditions. The action reflects the impact
on Naviera of the breadth and severity of the shock, and the broad
deterioration in credit quality it has triggered.

Moody's expects that Naviera's liquidity will remain stretched in
2020 because earnings will fall and free cash flow is likely to
stay negative. Moody's expects that challenging operating
conditions will also make it difficult for the company to achieve
the cost savings it guided to following the Trasmediterranea, S.A.
acquisition. Having sufficient liquidity hinges on vessel disposals
and the financing of scrubbers. Naviera has identified two vessels
that it can dispose of, but in view of currently challenging market
conditions, Moody's expects any sale is now uncertain in the
short-term. Naviera also has yet to secure financing for its
scrubbers.

As of September 30, 2019, Naviera had around EUR40 million of
unrestricted cash on balance sheet but had fully drawn its EUR31
million revolving credit facility. Moody's understands that the
company secured the disposal of a vessel for EUR35 million in
December 2019. A decline in earnings increases the risk that it
will breach its RCF covenant at the year end.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. Naviera's rating also incorporates the large capital
spending needed to comply with the IMO 2020 regulation, which
Naviera has had to comply with since 1 January 2020. This
regulation bans ships using fuel with a sulfur content higher than
0.5%, compared with 3.5% in the past, unless a vessel is equipped
to clean up its sulfur emissions. Moody's expects this regulation
may lead to increased operational costs, from the use of
lower-sulfur fuels, or increased capital spending to equip vessels
with scrubbers to clean up exhaust emissions. The rating also takes
into consideration the company's less conservative financial
policy, as illustrated by its high leverage and the large
investments made in recent years to expand the fleet.

RATIONALE FOR NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook reflects the uncertainty surrounding the
maintenance of passenger and freight maritime services during the
next few months in Naviera's core Spanish markets as well as the
potential impact of the coronavirus outbreak on demand for ferry
services. The outlook reflects Moody's concerns on Naviera's
ability to preserve its operations and liquidity during this period
of significant earnings decline.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATINGS UP / DOWN

Upward pressure is unlikely following the rating action.

However, over time, Moody's could upgrade the ratings if Naviera:
(1) successfully achieves the synergies planned as part of the
integration of Trasmediterranea, S.A.; (2) its liquidity
strengthens substantially such that it has adequate liquidity for
12-18 months without the need to sell assets and it has
successfully secured financing for its scrubbers, (3) its leverage
(Moody's adjusted gross debt/EBITDA) falls below 7.0x on a
sustainable basis, and (4) the operating environment improves.

Conversely, Moody's could downgrade the ratings if Naviera's
liquidity weakens further, if there is evidence of lower recoveries
in a default scenario or if there is an increased likelihood of
default.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Shipping
Industry published in December 2017.

COMPANY PROFILE

Headquartered in Las Palmas, Naviera is a Spanish ferry operator.
The company provides passenger and freight maritime transportation
services mainly in the Canary Islands and Balearic Islands (between
islands and to/from the Iberian peninsula). At end-September 2019,
Naviera operated a fleet of 23 wholly-owned vessels as well as 13
additional ferries chartered in. The company also operates the
largest land transportation business in Spain with a fleet of more
than 500 trucks. In the 12 months to 30 September 2019 the company
reported consolidated revenues of EUR624 million and an EBITDA of
EUR63 million. The company has been operating for over 75 years and
remains under the Armas family ownership.

EL CORTE: Fitch Places BB+ LT IDR on Rating Watch Negative
----------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has placed El Corte Ingles S.A.'s (ECI) Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating of 'BB+' on
Rating Watch Negative (RWN).

The RWN reflects the adverse impact of the coronavirus outbreak on
ECI's financial profile and liquidity, given uncertainty regarding
the length of the ongoing lockdown in Spain. Fitch assumes that the
lockdown would remain in place until end-May 2020, which would lead
to a sharp decline in non-food retail sales in 1QFY21 (financial
year to February 2021), followed by a recovery from 2QFY21. Fitch
expects this to stress liquidity during 1QFY21 and cause ECI to
fully draw down its EUR1.1 billion revolving credit facility (RCF),
although Fitch expects it to implement contingency measures. The
RWN also reflects that post-crisis the financial profile expected
by Fitch may be altered and no longer be in line with the 'BB+'
rating.

The RWN resolution will depend on ECI building sufficient liquidity
headroom to address large working capital needs in FY20, adapting
its cost structure and on its leverage trajectory once normal
activity resumes.

The 'BB+' rating is supported by ECI's strong market position in
Spain, expected funds from operations (FFO) adjusted gross leverage
ratio of around 4.0x in FY22, and by its large unencumbered asset
base that enhances financial flexibility.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Coronavirus Outbreak to Stress Liquidity: Fitch believes the
closure of ECI's large department stores will lead to a significant
loss of revenue in 1QFY21 and put pressure on liquidity due to the
need to make payments to its suppliers for purchase orders already
committed until June 2020. Fitch believes ECI would be able to
manage the temporary cash burn, as Fitch assumes the duration of
the lockdown would be limited to a few months and that liquidity
will be supported by contingency measures. However, Fitch also
believes that the impact of a more prolonged period of stress would
be significant and could lead to a downgrade.

Deleveraging Delayed: Fitch sees FFO-adjusted gross leverage
temporarily breaching its negative rating sensitivity and peaking
in FY21 at levels outside the 'BB+' level. However, Fitch expects
the underlying deleveraging trend to resume in FY22, as management
remains fully committed over the long-term to attain
investment-grade. Thus, this would mean a delay to the historical
deleveraging path seen in the last five years. Fitch also views
ECI's contingency plan as a source of support to leverage metrics.

Contingency Plan in Place: ECI has already initiated a contingency
plan to mitigate impact from the coronavirus outbreak, which
includes immediate reduction of purchase orders, working capital
adjustments and other operating spending reductions, including
temporary layoffs. Fitch also expects expansion capex to be put on
hold in FY21 as well as reduced shareholder distributions.

Low but Resilient Profitability: Fitch expects EBITDA margin to be
very weak in FY21, due to difficulty to adapt the cost base to much
lower sales, before recovering in FY22 to levels close to past
years'. ECI's track record of maintaining profitability in the
competitive retail environment is a positive factor, in Fitch's
view. ECI shows structurally low margins - EBITDAR margins of about
8% - relative to that of rated peers from other regions, although
this is partly attributable to ECI's exposure to food retail and
the travel agency sector.

Adapting to Retail Challenges: Changes in consumer habits have been
particularly severe on the retail industry (and more specifically
fashion), mainly due to growth of the online channel, with
aggressive strategies from pure online operators leading to a more
challenging operating environment. Despite disruptive trends, Fitch
views ECI's strategy as adequate for fending off competition, due
to a clear commitment to digital transformation and omni-channel
capabilities, which is critical in positioning the business. ECI
also benefits from a milder penetration of e-commerce in Spain,
although the gap with other developed markets could close rapidly.

Largest Department Store in Europe: ECI derives 95% of its revenue
from Spain, where it operates the only large department store
chain. It enjoys a privileged position in Spain due to its wide
product and service offering, long-established brand, consumer
loyalty and the prime location of several of its stores. ECI also
has hypermarkets integrated within its department stores and
proximity stores. Its large scale allows it to profitably sell
financial products to clients, including consumer loans to finance
their purchases, sold through a 49%-owned joint venture with Banco
Santander.

Other Businesses: ECI operates the leading retail and
business-to-business travel agency in Spain (18% sales, 7% EBITDA),
as well as a small but highly profitable insurance business (1.4%
sales, 8% EBITDA). It also owns a small IT services unit, which it
is in the process to divest.

Valuable Real Estate Portfolio: ECI owns a large real-estate
portfolio, whose value was appraised at around EUR17 billion by
Tinsa in February 2019. Fitch views this portfolio as an important
source of financial and operational flexibility, as assets can be
sold or used as collateral in case of need. The sale of parts of
this portfolio, or non-core businesses, could help ECI reach target
leverage metrics consistent with an investment-grade rating over
the medium term. Since 2018, ECI has accelerated its real-estate
management policy to achieve a more efficient structure through
better use of its retail space. In the past three years, ECI has
obtained over EUR600 million from monetising non-core real estate
assets, which has enabled it to reduce debt.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

ECI's 'BB+' IDR is lower than that of US peers such as Nordstrom,
Inc (BBB+/Negative), Macy's Inc. (BBB-/Stable), Dillard's, Inc
(BBB-/Stable) as well as UK-based Marks and Spencer Group plc
(BBB-/Negative). The main factors behind the rating differential
are ECI's lower profitability and higher leverage. However, ECI
benefits from lower volatility, due to its unrivalled market
positioning in Spain and a more gradual penetration of e-commerce
in this market. It also benefits from positive free cash flow (FCF)
generation due to tight control over capex and low dividends. This,
combined with asset disposals, has allowed the company to swiftly
deleverage in recent years.

ECI's IDR compares well with that of JC Penney Inc (CCC+/Stable),
which has lower scale and has seen LfL sales decline and
experienced margin deterioration and growing leverage.

Compared with its peers, ECI benefits from the flexibility provided
by owning most of its real-estate assets (similar to Dillard's),
with an appraisal value representing a loan-to-value of around 20%.
This ownership provides ECI with strong financial and operational
flexibility and underpins its solvency through the cycle.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - Revenues decreasing 25% in FY21, driven by a material reduction
of non-food retail and the travel agency, which is partially
mitigated by food retail. Sharp rebound in FY22 but with sales
still below FY20 levels.

  - Very weak EBITDA margin in FY21, stabilising at around 6.5% in
FY22 and thereafter.

  - Capex at around EUR180 million in FY21 before strongly
rebounding to EUR350 million in FY22 and EUR400 million in FY23.

  - Strong working capital outflows in FY21, mainly due to
inventories related to the fashion spring season, partially funded
with the undrawn RCF.

  - In the event of further cash needs Fitch assumes that the
company would able to obtain liquidity from additional funding
sources.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action (i.e. Rating off Watch and Affirmed at 'BB+'
wtith Stable Outlook)

  - Increase of the liquidity buffer to comfortably address
unforeseen liquidity needs through the coronavirus outbreak.

  - Some visibility that FY22 operational and financial performance
will return to at least pre-crisis levels, i.e. FFO margin
returning above 5% and FFO-adjusted gross leverage decreasing
towards 4.0x.

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action

  - Delays to obtaining additional liquidity to manage a
potentially more severe scenario, or liquidity obtained well above
market terms impairing FFO fixed-charge cover below 3.5x by FY22.

  - Longer and slower recovery post-coronavirus outbreak, leading
to deterioration in organic sales growth and profit margins with
FCF trending toward neutral to negative levels.

  - FFO-adjusted leverage sustainably above 4.3x on a gross basis
and above 3.8x on a net basis.

  - Volatile FCF margin not compensated with asset disposals or
other forms of external support, leading to delays to
deleveraging.

  - FFO margin sustainably below 5%.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are
credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,
either due to their nature or to the way in which they are being
managed by the entity.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Tight Liquidity in 1Q21: The impact of coronavirus outbreak on
ECI's liquidity is significant, especially in 1Q21, when the
company faces significant cash outflows for payment of purchase
orders committed until 2Q21 while their large department stores
remain closed (except for food retail). At February 28, 2020 the
company also had EUR409 million of short-term maturities from a
EUR1.2 billion short-term notes programme.

ECI completed its refinancing of its syndicated facilities in
February 2020 after partial repayment of its term loan. The terms
of its new EUR900 million senior unsecured term loan and EUR1.1
billion RCF include substantially lower margins and an extension of
maturities to 2025

Fitch believes that ECI will fully draw on its EUR1.1 billion RCF.
Fitch also incorporates the proceeds from the sale of IECISA,
expected for April 2020.



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S W E D E N
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SCANDINAVIAN AIRLINES: Egan-Jones Cuts Sr. Unsec. Debt Ratings to B
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Egan-Jones Ratings Company, on March 19, 2020, downgraded the
foreign currency and local currency senior unsecured ratings on
debt issued by Scandinavian Airlines to B from BB. EJR also
downgraded the rating on commercial paper issued by the Company to
B from A2.

Scandinavian Airlines, usually known as SAS, is the flag carrier of
Denmark, Norway, and Sweden. SAS is an abbreviation of the
company's full name, Scandinavian Airlines System or legally
Scandinavian Airlines System Denmark-Norway-Sweden.




=====================
S W I T Z E R L A N D
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DUFRY AG: Moody's Cuts CFR to Ba3, Rating Under Review
------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Dufry AG's Corporate
Family Rating to Ba3 from Ba2 and its Probability of Default Rating
to Ba3-PD from Ba2-PD. Concurrently, Moody's has downgraded to Ba3
from Ba2 the backed senior unsecured ratings of Dufry One B.V The
outlook on all ratings has been changed to ratings under review.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The passenger
airline sector has been one of the sectors most significantly
affected by the shock given its exposure to travel restrictions and
sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment. The action reflects
the direct linkage of Dufry's revenues to airline passenger volumes
and the breadth and severity of the shock.

Less than two weeks ago the company published its 2019 results,
which were in line with Moody's expectations and absent the clear
negative implications of Covid-19 would have seen the company well
positioned in the Ba2 rating category. Dufry grew its top line,
reported adjusted operating profit of CHF767.8 million just behind
the 2018 level, and reduced net debt by CHF184.2 million over the
year. The rating agency calculates the company's year end
Moody's-adjusted gross leverage (including the IFRS 16 impact) was
3.8x.

The rating action reflects the significant pace of negative
developments and dramatically reducing international air traveller
volumes. As such, Moody's now believes that the impact on the
company's profits and cash flow this year will be significant, and
that depending on the severity and duration of the pandemic, the
company's liquidity could be materially diminished in the absence
of additional funding or actions to preserve cash which were not
previously contemplated.

Moody's base case assumptions are that the coronavirus pandemic
will lead to a period of severe cuts in passenger traffic over at
least the next three months with partial or full flight
cancellations and aircraft groundings, with all regions affected
globally. The base case assumes there is a gradual recovery in
passenger volumes starting in the third quarter. However there are
high risks of more challenging downside scenarios.

The rating agency's base case analysis assumes around a 50%
reduction in Dufry's revenues in the second quarter and an 23% fall
for the full year, but the rating agency has also modelling
significantly deeper downside cases including airlines in most
regions having full fleet grounding during the course of Q2 and a
more extended period of severely depressed volumes.

Under the rating agency's base case Dufry's net debt at the end of
2020 will be approximately CHF300 million higher than a year
earlier and the company's Moody's-adjusted gross leverage will have
increased to more than 5.5x. The modeling does not factor in any
potential support that governments around the globe may provide to
companies affected by the crisis, including for example paying part
of the salaries of employees that would otherwise have been laid
off. In addition, although the rating agency has modeled reductions
in variable rents it has not factored in any temporary amendments
to minimum annual guaranteed rents which Dufry may be able to agree
with landlords. Moody's highlights the inherent uncertainties and
variables involved in modeling profitability and cash flows in
times of great uncertainty.

LIQUIDITY

Dufry started 2020 with total available liquidity of more than
CHF1.2 billion, comprising cash of CHF553 million and access to
around CHF700 million undrawn funds in its EUR1.3 billion revolving
credit facility. In normal circumstances Moody's would have
considered this to represent a good liquidity position, given known
seasonality and a history of positive free cash flow generation
over the course of the year.

However, in Moody's base case modelling Dufry's liquidity will be
weak during the course of 2020, and in particular during the second
and third quarters when headroom against the RCF limit could be
less than CHF100 million. In its cash flow modeling the rating
agency assumes that the proposed dividend is not paid and that the
company retains full access to its RCF despite an anticipated
covenant breach. Moody's also recognises that the company may be
able to access additional credit facilities to boost liquidity.
However, the material fall in Dufry's share price since the start
of the crisis is negative in the rating agency's view as it may
limit its access to capital.

The review process will be focusing on (i) the current market
situation with a review of current passenger traffic conditions and
pre-booking trends for the next few weeks, (ii) the liquidity
measures taken by the company and their impact on the company's
balance sheet, (iii) other measures being taken by the company to
alleviate balance sheet and credit metrics stress.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

The ratings are unlikely to be upgraded in the short term. Positive
rating pressure would not arise until the coronavirus outbreak is
brought under control, travel restrictions are lifted, and
passenger volumes return to more normal levels. At that stage
Moody's would evaluate the balance sheet and liquidity strength of
the company and positive rating pressure would require evidence
that the company is capable of substantially recovering its
financial metrics and restoring liquidity headroom within a
1-2-year time horizon.

Moody's could downgrade Dufry if:

  - there are expectations of deeper and longer declines in airport
passenger volumes including a material extension into Q3 2020 as a
result of the coronavirus outbreak, particularly if not matched by
additional sources of liquidity;

  - wider liquidity concerns increase, for instance due to cost
inflexibility;

  - there are clear expectations that the company will not be able
to maintain financial metrics compatible with a Ba3 rating
following the coronavirus outbreak, in particular if (a) gross
adjusted leverage is expected to remain sustainably well above
5.0x; or (b) interest cover is expected to be sustainably below
1.5x.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety, and as detailed above the impact of the crisis on the
company's credit quality has been the key driver of the downgrade
and review. The rating agency considers Dufry's governance
practices have been and remain appropriate and typical of a
publicly listed company.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Retail Industry
published in May 2018.

COMPANY PROFILE

Headquartered in Basel, Switzerland, Dufry is the leading global
travel retailer, covering 65 countries across over 400 locations,
operating over 2,400 shops in airports (90% of sales),as well
cruise liners, seaports, railway stations and downtown tourist
areas. The company reported sales and operating profit of CHF8.8
billion and CHF433 million respectively in 2019.

Dufry is listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange with a free float of
approximately 60% and a market capitalisation of around CHF1.5
billion currently, compared to around CHF5 billion this time last
year and in the period immediately before the escalation of the
Coronavirus crisis.

SWISSPORT GROUP: Moody's Places B3 CFR on Review for Downgrade
--------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has placed on review for downgrade all
ratings of Swissport Group S.a r.l., Swissport Investments S.A.,
Swissport Financing S.a r.l. and Swissport International AG,
including its the B3 Corporate Family Rating and B3-PD Probability
of Default Rating. The outlook on all ratings has been changed to
ratings under review from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The passenger
airline sector has been one of the sectors most significantly
affected by the shock given its exposure to travel restrictions and
sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment. The action reflects
the impact on Swissport of the breadth and severity of the shock,
and the broad deterioration in credit quality it has triggered.

The rating action was prompted by the very sharp decline in
passenger traffic since the outbreak of coronavirus started during
January 2020, which will result in a significant negative free cash
flow in 2020, a weakening liquidity profile and a significantly
higher leverage. From a regionally contained outbreak, the virus
has rapidly spread to many different regions severely denting air
travel. On a full-year basis, Moody's expects global industry
capacity to fall 25% to 35%, assuming the spread of the virus slows
by the end of June and, subsequently, passenger demand returns.
Approximately 80% of Swissport's revenue is linked to the number of
flights, which although is somewhat less volatile than passenger
traffic, will also be significantly affected. Around 20% of
Swissport's business is cargo handling, which is less vulnerable to
a complete shutdown scenario compared to passenger traffic, but in
Moody's view will also be depressed due lower economic activity and
supply chain disruption.

Moody's base case assumptions are that the coronavirus pandemic
will lead to a period of severe cuts in passenger traffic over at
least the next three months with partial or full flight
cancellations and aircraft groundings, with all regions affected
globally. The base case assumes there is a gradual recovery in
passenger volumes starting in the third quarter. However, there are
high risks of more challenging downside scenarios and the severity
and duration of the pandemic and travel restrictions is uncertain.
Moody's analysis assumes around a 50% reduction in Swissport's
revenue from baggage handling and circa 25% decline in cargo
handling volumes in the second quarter and a 20% fall for the full
year, whilst also modelling significantly deeper downside cases
including a full fleet grounding during the course of Q2.

Moody's acknowledges that Swissport is currently focusing on
reducing costs as much as possible and building up its liquidity.
Moody's understands that the company has pro-actively started to
reduce personnel costs with staff layoffs, unpaid leaves and
enrolling to government support programs. Moody's also expects that
Swissport will be significantly cutting this year's capex spend as
well as tightening payment terms for the airlines to speed up
revenue collection. However, the rating agency estimates that in
case the coronavirus pandemic continues into the summer months,
which is normally the peak travel season, and the air traffic
remains at a fraction of normal activity levels, Swissport will
likely have to seek additional external sources of liquidity from
banks or government support.

RATIONALE FOR RATING REVIEW

The review process will be focusing on (i) the current market
situation with a review of current passenger traffic conditions and
cargo volumes over the next 1-2 months, (ii) the liquidity measures
taken by the company and their impact on the company's balance
sheet, (iii) other measures being taken by the company to alleviate
balance sheet and credit metrics stress.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

The ratings are unlikely to be upgraded in the short term. Positive
rating pressure would not arise until the coronavirus outbreak is
brought under control, travel restrictions are lifted, and
passenger volumes return to more normal levels. At that stage
Moody's would evaluate the balance sheet and liquidity strength of
the company and positive rating pressure would require evidence
that the company is capable of substantially recovering its
financial metrics and restoring liquidity headroom within a
1-2-year time horizon.

Moody's could downgrade Swissport's rating if there are
expectations of deeper and longer declines in airport passenger
volumes including a material extension into Q3 2020 as a result of
the coronavirus outbreak, particularly if not matched by additional
sources of liquidity; wider liquidity concerns increase, for
instance due to cost inflexibility; or a prolonged period of
significantly negative free cash flow generation.

ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND GOVERNANCE CONSIDERATIONS

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety, and as detailed above the impact of the crisis on the
company's credit quality has been the key driver of the downgrade
and review.

Moody's would like to draw attention to certain governance
considerations related to Swissport. The company is controlled by
HNA, which had a track record of pursuing an aggressive financial
policy, including making Swissport issue an intra-group loan to the
parent and pledging Swissport's shares in a breach of the company's
financial covenants.

LIQUIDITY

Swissport's liquidity is challenged by the decline in free cash
flow generation. The company had EUR308 million cash as of February
2020 pro-forma for the recent EUR50 million term loan upsize and
has fully drawn the revolving credit facility (RCF) and capex
facility to cover the expected outflows. Swissport also has circa
EUR25 million available under its factoring facility.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

The B2 rating for the Term Loan B (TLB), the senior secured notes
(SSN) and the RCF is one notch above the corporate family rating
(CFR), benefiting from a sizeable amount of subordinated debt in
the form of senior notes (SN, EUR280 million), which provides loss
absorption in Moody's Loss Given Default model. Conversely, the SN
instrument rating of Caa2 reflects the subordination of the
instrument in the capital structure.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: Swissport Financing S.a r.l.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, currently B2

BACKED Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, B2

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently Caa2

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Swissport Group S.a r.l.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

LT Corporate Family Rating, currently B3

Probability of Default Rating, currently B3-PD

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Swissport International AG

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, currently B2

Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, currently B2

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Swissport Investments S.A.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently Caa3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently Caa3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

PRINCIPAL METHDOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Service Industry published in October 2016.

COMPANY PROFILE

Headquartered near Zurich Airport, Swissport is the world's largest
independent ground handling services company, based on revenue and
the number of airport locations. In 2019, Swissport serviced
flights at 300 airports in 50 countries. The Ground Services
segment accounts for roughly 80% of Swissport's group revenue, with
cargo handling contributing the remainder. In 2019 Swissport
generated revenues and management-adjusted EBITDA of EUR3.1 billion
and EUR413 million, respectively. The company is owned by the
Chinese investment group HNA Group Co., Ltd.



=============
U K R A I N E
=============

DTEK: Seeks Debt Restructuring Due to Coronavirus Crisis
--------------------------------------------------------
Pavel Polityuk at Reuters reports that Ukraine's largest private
power producer DTEK said on March 28 it is suspending interest
payings on Eurobonds and bank loans and will ask creditors to
restructure some of its debt due to the economic crisis caused by
the coronavirus pandemic.

Ukraine has reported 311 cases of coronavirus, including 8 deaths,
and the government declared an emergency across the whole country
for the next 30 days, Reuters relates.

"In order to minimize the negative economic consequences,
DTEK-Energo is taking emergency measures and suspending payment of
a coupon on Eurobonds and interest on bank debt," Reuters quotes
the company as saying in a statement.

"DTEK-Energo is developing proposals for the introduction of a
'standstill' and debt restructuring regarding the issue of
Eurobonds and asks the holders of Eurobonds and bank debt to
support the company in this difficult decision."

The company, owned by the country's richest man, Rinat Akhmetov,
did not clarify how much debt might be restructured, Reuters
notes.




===========================
U N I T E D   K I N G D O M
===========================

ATOTECH UK: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'B-' on COVID-19 Disruptions
--------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered to 'B-' its issuer credit rating on
Atotech U.K. Topco Ltd., and downgrading its related debt
instruments by one notch.

Recent disruption to its manufacturing in China and the long-term
effect of the pandemic on demand will put Atotech under pressure in
2020

Atotech recently indicated that its performance in the first
quarter of 2020 will be relatively close to first quarter 2019
levels. Its production facilities in China are now fully
operational and ramping up--the situation appears to be stabilizing
in much of China. S&P said, "That said, we believe Atotech is at
risk not only through its operations, but also through its sales.
In the short term, Atotech's products could suffer supply chain
disruptions in China; in the longer term, we expect to see a
protracted period of lower demand extending globally across all
Atotech's geographies and end-markets."

S&P said, "We anticipate that Atotech will feel the effects of the
disruption arising from the COVID-19 pandemic from the first
quarter of 2020. It has direct exposure to China, which accounted
for about 38% of its chemistry division in 2019, the largest by
revenue. We now expect China's economy to shrink by 10% during the
first quarter, compared with the same period a year ago. Our real
GDP growth expectations for China in 2020 have also shrunk to 2.9%
from 4.8% previously."

The outbreak in China has now morphed into a full-blown global
pandemic. Asia Pacific alone, the first region affected, accounts
for a further 33% of Atotech's chemistry revenue. S&P Global
Ratings acknowledges a high degree of uncertainty about the rate of
spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak in particular countries
and regions. S&P said, "That said, our base case assumes a
reduction in global GDP of 0.5 percentage points (ppt) to 1.0%-1.5%
this year. We also revised down GDP growth in the eurozone and the
U.S: two of the main areas where Atotech's end-customers operate.
Our forecast for the eurozone is down by 0.5 ppt, and for the U.S.
is down 0.3 ppt. Downside risks to our base-case forecast could
arise, depending on whether the epidemic persists beyond the second
quarter of 2020."

Atotech's revenue and EBITDA growth in 2020 are particularly at
risk, given its large exposure to the automotive sector.
S&P said, "We anticipate the outbreak will cause already-weak
demand to worsen and lower volumes in the automotives sector, which
accounted for about 36% of chemistry revenue in 2019. The general
metal finishing (GMF) segment, which supplies chemical equipment
that has a wide range of applications in the automotive sector, was
already down 6% organically in 2019. Despite evidence that China is
starting to see some recovery from COVID-19, we think it is likely
that light vehicle sales in China will decline by 8%-10% this year
because of the first-quarter shock."

Globally, the situation is worse. S&P said, "We are further
lowering our forecasts for global light vehicle sales as the
COVID-19 pandemic escalates and global growth heads sharply lower.
We now project global sales will decline by almost 15% in 2020 to
less than 80 million units."

During the first half of 2020, Atotech is likely to suffer a
significant volume decline in electronics

Electronics represented 40% of Atotech's chemistry revenue in 2019.
The COVID-19 outbreak in China has led to severe restrictions
disrupting the global technology sector, especially hardware and
semiconductor companies.

S&P said, "We estimate that China accounts for more than 70% of
global phone manufacturing and the gradual recovery of its supply
chain across logistics, transportation, and millions of laborers
will weigh on the timing of new phone launches. That said, we don't
expect phone-related supply chain issues to reverberate beyond the
first half of the year.

Many of the hardware and smartphone manufacturers to which Atotech
supplies electronic plating chemicals and equipment still assume
that demand will be deferred by a quarter or two, and that recovery
in the second half of the year may make up for the first-half loss.
S&P agrees that the second half will see a recovery, but believe
some demand, especially in hardware, will be permanently lost as
enterprises, IT service providers, and consumers lose confidence in
the economy. This will cause them to reduce orders for later
quarters.

The COVID-19 outbreak has decimated smartphone demand in China,
where International Data Corp. (IDC) has forecast a decline in
phone consumption of about 40% during the first quarter of 2020.
IDC does not expect growth to return until the third quarter. China
accounted for approximately 30% of smartphone consumption in 2019.
Although S&P sees signs of the outbreak in China stabilizing, U.S.
and Europe are in the early stages of demand destruction as
economic activity comes to an indefinite halt and consumer
confidence wanes.

Although adjusted debt is now forecast to exceed 7.0x in 2020, FOCF
will remain positive and liquidity adequate
This could reduce further deterioration in credit metrics. S&P's
preliminary forecast suggests that adjusted EBITDA could decline to
about $315 million in 2020 from $331 million in 2019. This scenario
would arise if revenue fell by 2% and the adjusted EBITDA margin by
100-200 basis points (bps) to 26%-27%. This would mean adjusted
debt to EBITDA increasing to about 7.5x in 2020, from below the
6.5x that it initially estimated for 2020.

If the outbreak proves more difficult to contain, the effects on
Atotech could be more extensive than S&P currently
forecasts--lengthy factory shutdowns or significant
underutilization could materially lower the global output of
components, subassemblies, or finished goods.

S&P said, "Currently, we anticipate that the company will maintain
positive FOCF of $50 million in 2020 (initial forecast: above $100
million). Although FOCF to debt is now around 3%-5%, we consider
that Atotech's continued ability to generate positive cash flow
could prevent its creditworthiness from deteriorating further.

"We anticipate that Atotech will maintain adequate liquidity in
2020, supported by a multicurrency committed senior secured
revolving credit facility (RCF) that had borrowing capacity of
about $230 million as of December 2019 and is available until
2022.

"The stable outlook indicates that we expect Atotech to generate
positive FOCF even as its adjusted debt to EBITDA increases to
about 7.5x in 2020. Additionally, we consider that its liquidity
and headroom under financial covenants will remain adequate. Both
of these factors reduce the risk of further credit deterioration.

"We could lower the rating if Atotech's operating performance
deteriorates to such an extent that FOCF turns negative, or if its
interest coverage ratio falls below 2.5x and we think its credit
metrics are likely to deteriorate significantly in 2021. We could
also lower the rating if the company's liquidity deteriorates
materially."

These scenarios could result from a steeper decline in revenue and
EBITDA than we currently anticipate.

S&P said, "We could raise the rating if revenue in electronics and
automotive segments recovers in the second half of 2020 and looks
set to grow in 2021. We consider that these conditions would lead
to a strengthening in EBITDA, enabling the ratio of adjusted debt
to EBITDA to return comfortably below 7x on a sustainable basis."


BRIGHTHOUSE: Goes Into Administration, Seeks Buyer for Business
---------------------------------------------------------------
Phil Hill at Somerset County Gazette reports that the BrightHouse
rent-to-own business, which has an outlet in High Street, has gone
into administration.

According to Somerset County Gazette, the administrators are
attempting to find a buyer for all or part of the company.

BrightHouse has been hit by huge compensation claims for selling
household appliances to customers unable to make the repayments,
Somerset County Gazette relates.

The company has 240 stores and employs 2,400 staff nationwide,
Somerset County Gazette discloses.


CARLUCCIO'S: Goes Into Administration Amid Coronavirus Pandemic
---------------------------------------------------------------
David Child at Evening Standard reports that Carluccio's has
confirmed it has fallen into administration amid the ongoing
coronavirus pandemic, casting a shadow over the future of the
dining chain's 71 UK restaurants and 2,000 employees.

The business, which was founded by Antonio Carluccio in 1991,
confirmed on March 30 it has hired advisory firm FRP to oversee its
administration, Evening Standard relates.

FRP, as cited by Evening Standard, said it was "urgently" assessing
all options for the future of Carluccio's, including mothballing
restaurants using government support, as well as selling on some or
all of the business.

According to Evening Standard, commenting on Carluccio's
administration, Geoff Rowley, joint administrator and partner at
FRP, said: "We are operating in unprecedented times and the issues
currently facing the hospitality sector following the onset of
Covid-19 are well documented.

"In the absence of being able to continue to trade Carluccio's, in
the short term we are urgently focused on the options available to
preserve the future of the business and protect its employees."

The chain said Carluccio's Ireland operation and its franchise
business in the Middle East is unaffected by the administration,
Evening Standard notes.


CONNECT BIDCO: S&P Places 'B+' Long-Term ICR on Watch Negative
--------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings placing all its ratings on Connect Bidco Ltd.
(Inmarsat), including the 'B+' long-term issuer credit rating, on
CreditWatch with negative implications.

Inmarsat's near-term revenue will be negatively affected by the
COVID-19 pandemic, with volume-based aviation revenue most exposed.
  S&P said, "We assume that Inmarsat's revenue will be $50
million-$100 million weaker in 2020 than in our previous base case,
translating to up to $50 million lower than 2019 (excluding one-off
revenue from RigNet). However, our base case does not include
material impact on the core maritime revenues, hence there remains
a risk for greater downside in 2020, as laid out below."

S&P said, "A key driver of revenue weakness under our base case is
a fall in revenue from in-flight connectivity (IFC; about 9% of
total revenue in 2019), compared with our previous expectation of
about 25% growth, due to COVID-19's effect on global travel. This
is mainly reflected in 50% lower usage-based airtime revenue (about
35% of total IFC revenue in 2019). In addition, slower airline
installations mean that there will be a further delay in generating
previously expected airtime revenues for 2021.

"We currently assume that subscription-based airtime revenue (about
23% of total IFC revenue) will remain resilient. This is based on
the assumption that Inmarsat's commercial airline customers will
continue to operate as going concerns. These are predominantly
airlines which are large, or likely to receive government support
if needed, including Emirates, Qatar Airways, Lufthansa, British
Airways, and Air New Zealand. While the financial strain these
airlines are experiencing means there is a risk of cancellations or
delays to IFC installations (about 42% of total IFC revenue), this
revenue has minimal margin for Inmarsat.

"The other potential determinant of revenue weakness in 2020 will
be a fall in maritime revenue (about 38% of total revenue in 2019).
While maritime installation revenue is expected to decline by only
$10 million to $20 million as a result of COVID-19 (corresponding
to a negative 2%-4% effect on maritime revenue), we see further
risk to revenue from some of Inmarsat's distributors. We understand
that Inmarsat has single-digit revenue exposure to Speedcast
(CCC/Negative/--; a distributor), which could be highly exposed to
COVID-19 because of its exposure to Carnival cruise line, weak
liquidity, and our view of its capital structure as unsustainable.
Revenue from Marlink (Inmarsat's other main distributor) could also
come under pressure, as it is also exposed to cruise lines. Over
the longer term we expect these revenue streams will be recovered,
but see a short-term risk due to potential contract renegotiation
or payment issues from these distributors.

"We do, however, still anticipate that usage-based revenue from
global merchant shippers such as Anglo-Eastern and Maersk will
remain relatively resilient. We also see a high likelihood that
customer churn will reduce, linked to slower migration of customers
from narrowband to broadband, and general unwillingness of
customers to switch maritime connectivity provider in the current
environment.

"We do not envisage a material effect from the COVID-19 pandemic on
Inmarsat's enterprise segment (about 9% of revenue in 2019) and
government segment (about 30% of revenue).

"EBITDA impact will be somewhat cushioned by cost savings, but the
effect will still be negative--meaning S&P Global Ratings-adjusted
leverage will come under strain.   We do not assume the negative
revenue effect in 2020 will fully pass through to EBITDA, owing to
various cost savings. These include a lower cost of sales, lower
bonus payments, and a weaker pound sterling (a significant portion
of the cost base is in pound sterling)."

Nonetheless, the EBITDA effect will still be negative, likely in
the $35 million-$75 million range. This is because of the company's
significant degree of operating leverage (about two-thirds of the
cost base is fixed), and the expectation that there will no longer
be a revenue-mix shift in aviation toward high-margin airtime from
low-margin installation.

S&P said, "EBITDA weakness means we now expect Inmarsat's adjusted
leverage will come under strain in 2020. We now assume an adjusted
debt to EBITDA of 5.8x–6.2x in 2020, from about 5.5x in our
previous base case.

"Cash impact will be further cushioned by lower capex, interest,
and working capital inflow, but free cash flow will still be
significantly negative.   We assume that the negative cash effect
in 2020 stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic will be about half of
the negative revenue effect. This is based on further offsetting
from lower capital expenditure (capex), working capital inflow, and
lower interest payments. We assume that capex reduction will amount
to about $20 million, mainly due to lower success-based capex. We
assume a working capital inflow of about $5 million-$15 million,
reflecting an unwind of about 10%-15% of the negative revenue
effect. Finally, we assume about $15 million lower interest
payments on Inmarsat's variable rate debt (about 46% of outstanding
debt), thanks to a lower U.S. dollar Libor rate following the
Federal Reserve's decision to cut its policy rate to the 0%-0.25%
range.

"We still expect that Inmarsat's negative free cash flow will
exceed $100 million in 2020. We also now expect that negative free
cash flow will exceed $50 million in 2021, contrary to our previous
base case of nearly breakeven free cash flow for 2021. This is
mainly because of lower EBITDA than our previous base case, but
also the risk that capex deferral will mean higher capex in 2021
than previously assumed.

"The CreditWatch placement reflects the potential that we will
lower our ratings within the next 90 days if it becomes clear that
adjusted leverage will exceed 6x in 2020, and free cash flows will
remain highly negative in 2021."

This could be the result of:

-- Sharper-than-expected fall and slower anticipated recovery in
usage-based aviation revenue; or

-- More-negative-than-anticipated performance in the core maritime
segment, including from distributors.

S&P said, "We could affirm the ratings if we see signs of recovery
over the next three months, which would give us more confidence in
Inmarsat's ability to retain credit metrics in line with the
current rating.

"We assess Inmarsat's liquidity as adequate. Inmarsat's liquidity
is mainly supported by its undrawn $700 million revolving credit
facility (RCF). We calculate Inmarsat's ratio of liquidity sources
to uses at more than 2x over the 12 months from March 1, 2020, and
we estimate that sources would continue to exceed uses even if
EBITDA were to fall by 30%. Our liquidity assessment also factors
in Inmarsat's general standing in credit markets after the buyout,
its lack of a track record of liquidity risk management under new
ownership, and its expected cash burn over the next couple of
years."

S&P estimates that Inmarsat's liquidity sources over the 12 months
from March 1, 2020, will include:

-- About $120 million of cash;
-- $700 million undrawn RCF maturing in 2024; and
-- Cash funds from operations (FFO) of about $370 million-$400
million.

S&P estimates that Inmarsat's liquidity uses over the same period
will include:

-- $17.5 million of debt amortization;
-- Peak intra-year working capital outflow of about $15
million-$25 million; and

-- Reported capex of about $520 million-$540 million.

The $700 million RCF includes a springing first-lien financial
maintenance covenant comprising a 9x net leverage test that will be
applied if Inmarsat uses more than 40% of the RCF. In S&P's base
case for 2020-2021, it anticipates significant headroom of more
than 30% above the covenant, and that drawdown on the RCF will be
less than 15%.


ENQUEST PLC: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3; Put on Review for Downgrade
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service downgraded EnQuest PLC's corporate family
rating to B3 from B2 and probability of default rating to B3-PD
from B2-PD, as well as the ratings assigned to the $677.5 million
high yield notes due 2022 to Caa1 from B3. Concurrently, Moody's
placed EnQuest's ratings on review for further downgrade. The
previous outlook on the company was stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rating action reflects Moody's expectation that despite the
operating cost and capital expenditure reduction programme
initiated by management, an extended period of low commodity prices
will lead to lower EBITDA and an increase in EnQuest's leverage
ratio.

While EnQuest generated robust revenues until the recent collapse
in oil prices in early March 2020, Moody's notes that the hedges
put in place by the group provide limited protection to its future
revenue and cash flow generation, covering around 20% of 2020
entitlement production with c. 2.9 million barrels (mmbbl) and c.
1.1 mmbbl at an average floor price of c.$65 per bbl and c.$52 per
bbl respectively. In spite of the 30% cut in operating costs and
$80 million reduction in capex to approximately $150 million in
2020 that were recently initiated by management, Moody's considers
that assuming oil prices remain close to their current level,
EnQuest is likely to turn free cash flow (FCF) negative in 2020.
While management targets a cash flow breakeven of around $35 per
boe in 2021, Moody's estimates that the group's leverage as
measured by adjusted debt (i.e. including contingent consideration
related to the Magnus transaction) to EBITDA would be around 6.5x
in 2021, based on a $37 per barrel price assumption.

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The E&P sector has
been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the shock
given its sensitivity to demand and oil prices.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. The action reflects the impact on EnQuest of the
breadth and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in
credit quality it has triggered.

LIQUIDITY

While EnQuest has no maturity falling due in the next twelve
months, Moody's cautions that should the low oil price environment
persist, its liquidity position would materially weaken ahead of
the amortisations of $65 million and $360 million falling due under
its main credit facility in April and October 2021, respectively.

Following an accelerated voluntary payment of the $35 million April
amortisation in January 2020, the group had total cash of $200
million at the end of February 2020, including ring-fenced accounts
associated with Magnus, the Oz Management facility and other joint
venture accounts totaling $63 million. It also has access to a $75
million revolving credit facility (RCF) under its credit facility
maturing in October 2021, out of which $7 million was utilised by
way of letters of credit at the end of February 2020.

The $964 million senior notes mature on 15 April 2022 but EnQuest
has the option to extend the maturity date to 15 April 2023.
Further, the maturity date of the notes will be automatically
extended to 15 October 2023 if the credit facility is not repaid or
refinanced in full prior to October 15, 2020. Also, while the notes
accrue a semi-annual fixed coupon of 7.0%, the interest is only
payable in cash if the average of the daily Brent oil prices during
the six-month period ending one month prior to the interest payment
date is equal to or above $65/bbl. If this condition is not
satisfied, the interest is paid in kind.

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW

The review will focus on (i) EnQuest's ability to preserve its
liquidity during this period of significant decline in revenue and
operating cash flow; (ii) the prospects for the refinancing of the
group's maturities falling due in 2021; and (iii) the potential
operational disruptions and loss of production that may result from
the coronavirus outbreak.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

EnQuest's major borrowings, including the $515 million senior term
loan and RCF, $746 million high-yield bond and $218 million retail
bond, are guaranteed by essentially all of its producing
subsidiaries. The senior facility is secured by share pledges and
floating charges of the subsidiary guarantors. The guarantees and
security pledges are subject to a priority of claim in accordance
with their terms, ranking the facility most senior with the senior
notes effectively subordinated.

The Caa1 rating on the senior notes is one notch below the B3 CFR,
reflecting the substantial amount of secured liabilities ranking
ahead of the senior notes within the capital structure. The notes
are senior unsecured guaranteed obligations and are subordinated in
right of payment to all existing and future senior secured
obligations of the guarantors, including their obligations under
the senior secured facility. However, the amount of secured debt
ranking ahead of the senior notes will decrease as the term loan
gets repaid and has reduced very significantly since 2016.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP

While an upgrade is unlikely at this juncture, EnQuest's ratings
could be upgraded should a sustained recovery in operating
profitability ensure that FCF remain positive, allowing the group
to permanently reduce Moody's-adjusted leverage below 4x and
strengthen its liquidity profile.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN

Conversely, the ratings could come under pressure should the
group's liquidity profile markedly deteriorate amid further
weakening in cash flow generation and increase in leverage.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Independent
Exploration and Production Industry published in May 2017.

EnQuest PLC is an independent oil and gas development & production
company with the majority of its asset base on the United Kingdom
Continental Shelf region of the North Sea. In 2019, it reported
average daily production of 68.6 thousand barrels of oil equivalent
(boe). As of 2018 year-end, EnQuest had 2P reserves of 245 million
boe, of which 92% were located in the UKCS in the North Sea, where
it has interests in 17 production licences. In addition, it holds
interests in three Malaysian production licences, of which two are
currently producing. In the 12 months ended June 2019, EnQuest
reported revenue of $1,511 million and EBITDA of $930 million.

EXTENTIA GROUP: Cash Flow Problems Prompt Administration
--------------------------------------------------------
David Price at Construction News reports that Extentia Group Ltd.,
the parent company of Styles & Wood and three other companies
connected to it, have gone into administration, with the loss of
230 jobs.

Extentia Group, which acquired Styles & Wood in 2018, was placed
into administration alongside the fit-out firm on Feb. 28,
Construction News relates.  Three other businesses in the Extentia
Group: Mobias, iSite and Arctick, have also gone under,
Construction News understands.

Administrators from EY were called in on Feb. 28 following reports
on Feb. 27 that Styles & Wood had filed for administration,
Construction News recounts.  According to Construction News,
cashflow problems linked to some major projects were blamed for the
company's demise.  One of the joint administrators from EY, Charles
King, as cited by Construction News, said "significant losses"
incurred over the past 12 months had created "severe cash
pressure".  The majority of the 230 redundancies involve staff at
Styles & Wood, Construction News notes.

In its last filed accounts for the 18 months ending June 30, 2018,
Styles & Wood reported a pre-tax loss of GBP5.5 million on revenue
of GBP151.5 million, Construction News discloses.  The loss was
blamed in part on higher overheads as the company prepared to take
on support an enlarged group as a result of further acquisitions by
Extentia, according to Construction News.

Arctick was Extentia's risk management services operation and iSite
provided property estate management software.  Mobias offered
change management services to companies.

Extentia Group Ltd is a non-trading holding company.


ITHACA ENERGY: Fitch Cuts IDR to B; Places Rating on Neg. Watch
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Ithaca Energy's Issuer Default Rating
to 'B' from 'B+' and USD500 million notes issued by Ithaca Energy
(North Sea) Plc and guaranteed by Ithaca Energy to 'B-'/'RR5'/20%
from 'B+'/'RR4'/40%. The agency has also placed the ratings on
Rating Watch Negative (RWN).

The downgrade and RWN reflect the potential pressure Ithaca may
face due to liquidity issues experienced by its 100% parent, Delek
Group. While Ithaca's ring-fencing mechanism should provide
protection to its credit profile, Fitch sees a risk that decisions
taken at the parent could have negative consequences for Ithaca's
creditworthiness.

Ithaca's standalone liquidity is strong for the rating and the
company is well-positioned to survive the oil price shock, if it
turns out to be short-lived, given its flexible capex and
well-hedged position for 2020-2021. However, consistently low oil
prices could have negative implications for Ithaca's financial and
business profiles, given its low proved reserve life and high cost
of production.

Fitch has also downgraded Ithaca's USD500 million senior unsecured
notes given their worsened recovery prospects based on Fitch's
updated oil price assumptions. Fitch believes that the valuation of
upstream assets, particularly in higher-cost production areas such
as United Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS), could be negatively
affected by lower oil prices.

Fitch will aim to resolve the RWN once Fitch has more clarity on
the Delek's financial and liquidity positions and their potential
implications for Ithaca.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Parent Experiencing Liquidity Issues: Israel-focused Delek acquired
Ithaca in 2017 and supported the latter's acquisition of Chevron's
U.K. assets in 2019 to expand internationally. Fitch assesses
Delek's current liquidity position as very weak, which is
exacerbated by its high leverage and low oil and gas prices. On
March 8, 2020, Delek published annual cash flow projections, which
mainly rely on dividends from Ithaca and Delek Drilling, its other
large investment, and uncommitted secured borrowings.

Potential Parent Debt Restructuring: Fitch understands from press
reports that several international banks are attempting to
accelerate repayments of Delek's debts. Fitch believes that Delek
may be forced to consider different options, including financial
restructuring.

Ring-Fencing Mechanism: Fitch believes that Ithaca's credit
documentation limits Delek's ability to extract high dividends and
other distributions from the company. Based on the recently
published cash flow forecast by Delek the parent expects Ithaca to
pay USD135 million in dividends in 2020, but subsequent
distributions would be subject to the 1.3x incurrence net debt
covenant test (with the definition broadly in line with net
debt-to-EBITDAX), as well as other tests. Moreover, Ithaca is not
allowed to provide intra-group loans or guarantee external debt
based on its reserve-based lending (RBL) and bond documentation, or
attract material new debt.

Weaker Parent; Change-of-Control Clause: Fitch recognises the
parent's deteriorating financial profile and that it is not
possible to foresee all possible actions that the parent may take
in view of its vulnerable liquidity position that may affect
Ithaca's credit profile, which is reflected in the downgrade to 'B'
and the RWN. Also, Ithaca's debt is subject to a change-of-control
clause under the RBL and bond documentation, which may trigger an
earlier repayment in the event of Delek disposing of its stake in
Ithaca.

Strong Cash Flows despite Weak Oil: Fitch expects Ithaca to
generate strongly positive free cash flows (FCF), at least in
2020-2021, due to its hedging arrangements (75% and 55% of
production hedged in 2020 and 2021, at a strike price of USD63/bbl
for oil and 0.51p/therm for gas), flexible capex programme mainly
focused on infill drilling, and accumulated tax losses sheltering
cash flows from taxes.

Decommissioning Obligations Long-Tem, Tax Deductible: Ithaca has
assumed responsibility for Chevron's outstanding North Sea
decommissioning obligations increasing its abandonment liability by
around USD550 million to USD738 million. The majority of the
decommissioning-related cash outflows is expected after 2026 and
tax-deductible. Fitch does not add decommissioning obligations to
debt, but deduct them from projected operating cash flows as they
are being incurred. Fitch assumes a cumulative cash outflow of
around USD40 million over 2019-2022.

Low Leverage: Ithaca's leverage is low, and Fitch expects its
absolute amount of net debt to fall even in the low oil price
environment on the back of projected FCF. Ithaca is planning to
gradually repay its committed RBL facility, which should enhance
its standalone liquidity. Its base case expects Ithaca's net
leverage to fall to 1.5x in 2021 from 2.0x in 2020. Under its
stress-case Ithaca's net leverage should fall to 1.8x from 2.1x. It
has no maturities in 2020-2021 and its RBL will start amortising in
2022.

Moderately Diversified Asset Base: Ithaca's asset base is
moderately diversified. The company produces from 18 fields located
predominantly in the Central North Sea area, with the largest asset
(the Captain field) accounting for around 30% of 2019 total
production, and its three largest assets accounting for around 63%.
The largest part of the company's 2019 production is operated,
which means more capex flexibility, and it is exposed to both
liquids (63%) and natural gas (37%).

Production Gradually Falling: Because many of Ithaca's assets are
beyond their mid-life point Fitch assumes production to decline to
below 70kboepd by 2022-2023 in the absence of acquisitions and new
projects. Ithaca's cost position with an operating expenditure of
USD17/boe in 2020 is fairly high though typical for the UKCS, and
could put the company at a disadvantage if low oil prices persist.

Low Proved Reserves: Ithaca's low proved (1P) reserve life ratio of
four years is weaker than that of other Fitch-rated E&P peers.
However, it is not uncommon for a company focusing on the UKCS
given the basin's ageing characteristics. Fitch believes this is
somewhat mitigated by its proved and probable (2P) reserve life of
eight years, strong financial profile and solid cash flow
generation, which Fitch assumes should enable it to replenish
reserves organically and potentially through acquisitions. However,
if low oil prices persist, its ability to replenish reserves could
suffer.

ESG Influence: Ithaca has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Waste and
Hazardeous Materials Management; Ecological Impacts due to high
decommissioning liabilities, which has a negative impact on the
Recovery Rating, and is relevant to the senior unsecured rating in
conjunction with other factors. Because of Ithaca's high
decommissioning obligations and in combination with other factors,
in its recovery analysis Fitch applies a 3.5x multiple, which is
lower than the average 4x-5x multiple normally applied by Fitch for
the natural resources sector.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Ithaca's 'B' rating and the RWN reflect the liquidity issues and
deterioration of the financial profile experienced by Delek, though
the subsidiary's standalone liquidity remains strong for the
rating. Ithaca's scale, measured by the level of production
(75kboepd pro-forma for the CNSL acquisition), compares well with
that of peers in the 'B' rating category, such as Kosmos Energy
Ltd. (B+/Stable, 4Q19: 65.2kboepd) and Seplat Petroleum Development
Company (B-/Positive, 2019E: 45kboepd). However, Ithaca's absolute
level of proved reserves is lower than that of Kosmos and Seplat,
which results in a weaker 1P reserve life of four years. This is
mitigated by Ithaca's forecast low leverage and strong FCF
generation capacity over its four-year rating horizon, as well as
adequate 2P reserve life of eight years.

Ithaca's operations are focused on the UK North Sea, a more stable
operating environment compared with that of Kosmos, which still
derives the majority of its production in Ghana, and of Seplat,
which only focuses on Nigeria.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - Base-case assumptions for Brent: USD41/bbl in 2020, USD48/bbl
in 2021, USD53/bbl in 2022, and USD55/bbl thereafter

  - Stress-case assumptions for Brent: USD36/bbl in 2020, USD40/bbl
in 2021, USD48/bbl in 2022, and USD50/bbl thereafter

  - Pro-forma upstream production of 75kboepd in 2019, declining to
65kboepd by 2022

  - Average capex of around USD180 million over 2020-2023

  - USD135 million dividend in 2020, and no dividends in 2021 based
on Ithaca's incurrence 1.3x leverage covenant.

  - No cash taxes over 2020 - 2022

Key Recovery Rating Assumptions:

Its recovery analysis is based on a going-concern approach, which
implies that Ithaca will be reorganised rather than liquidated in a
bankruptcy.

Fitch has assumed a 10% administrative claim.

Ithaca's going-concern EBITDA is based on Fitch's base-case 2020
EBITDA of around USD420 million, excluding hedges, forecast under
its current price deck.

Fitch believes that a 3.5x multiple reflects a conservative view of
the going-concern enterprise value (EV) of the business. Such a
multiple is below the 4x-5x average multiple employed by Fitch for
the natural resources sector to reflect the declining profile of
production assets and the decommissioning obligation associated
with them.

In line with Fitch's criteria, Fitch assumes the availability under
the RBL is fully utilised upon default and treat it as senior to
notes in the waterfall.

After deduction of 10% for administrative claims, its waterfall
analysis generated a ranked recovery in the RR5 band, indicating a
'B-' instrument rating. The waterfall analysis output percentage on
current metrics and assumptions was 20%. The decline in recovery is
explained by lower going-concern EBITDA reflecting the new low oil
price environment.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action

  - Adverse change in financial policies or practices, including
the parent successfully upstreaming significant amounts of cash, or
taking other measures that negatively affect Ithaca

  - Ithaca's worsened standalone credit position, e.g. material
reduction of the borrowing base under the RBL

  - Inability to replenish proved reserves and/or production
falling consistently below 50kboepd

  - FFO-adjusted net leverage consistently above 3.5x

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action

  - The ratings are on RWN, therefore, positive rating action is
unlikely in the short term. However, improved liquidity and/or
stabilised financial position at parent level, or evidence of
limited parent influence on Ithaca could lead to the RWN resolution
and a Stable Outlook.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Strong Standalone Liquidity: Ithaca's standalone liquidity is
strong. The company is well-hedged and should generate substantial
positive FCF even under its extreme stress scenario (Brent
USD32/bbl in 2020 and USD35/bbl in 2021). However, its liquidity
could come under pressure due from the high leverage and tight
liquidity of Delek.

RBL Redetermination Risks Moderate: The borrowing base availability
on the RBL is re-assessed as part of bi-annual re-determination,
and the next one is due end of April. Fitch views the
redetermination risk as moderate, given the RBL is not fully
utilised, the company's recent reserve additions and well-hedged
position (which would normally be taken into account into the
updated borrowing base assessment).

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of
ESG credit relevance is a score of 3 - ESG issues are credit
neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either
due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by
the entity.

Ithaca has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for Waste and Hazardeous
Materials Management; Ecological Impacts due to high
decommissioning liabilities, which has a negative impact on the
Recovery Rating, and is relevant to the senior unsecured rating in
conjunction with other factors.

ITHACA ENERGY: Moody's Places B1 CFR on Review for Downgrade
------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service placed under review for downgrade the B1
corporate family rating and a B1-PD probability of default rating
of Ithaca Energy Limited, as well as the B3 rating assigned to the
$500 million senior unsecured bond due 2024 issued by Ithaca Energy
(North Sea) plc and guaranteed on a senior basis by Ithaca and on a
senior subordinated basis by certain of its subsidiaries. The
outlook on both entities has been revised to ratings under review
from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rating action reflects the fact that despite the extensive
commodity hedging book built by the group in the context of the
acquisition of Chevron North Sea Limited in November 2019, an
extended period of low commodity prices would still hurt Ithaca's
credit profile.

In addition, given the financial strain currently experienced by
Ithaca's sole owner Delek Group Ltd. ("Delek" unrated), Moody's
cautions that Ithaca may become under increasing pressure to
provide financial support to its parent, although the restricted
payments covenant governing the group's senior notes limits the
upstreaming of dividends to $135 million under a general basket.

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The E&P sector has
been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the shock
given its sensitivity to demand and oil prices.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. The action reflects the impact on Ithaca of the breadth
and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit
quality it has triggered.

However, Moody's notes Ithaca's ability to withstand low oil & gas
prices in the near-term is supported by the extensive commodity
hedging book built by the group in the context of the CNSL
acquisition. This provides significant protection to operating cash
flow generation in the next eighteen months. Currently, just under
80% of 2020 oil production from currently producing fields is
hedged, providing a floor price of $64 per barrel (bbl). Combined
oil and gas hedging covers over 70% in 2020 and 50% in 2021 (with a
gas price floor of 51 pence per therm) of production from existing
producing fields. Total 2020 production is forecast to average
between 70,000 to 75,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd)
including approximately 65% liquids.

The certainty of future cash flows afforded by the group's
commodity hedging book should also underpin the level of
availability under its $1.65 billion senior secured borrowing base
(RBL) facility, which subject to the borrowing base amount, starts
amortising on a semi-annual basis in 2022 and matures in 2024.
While the next six-monthly calculation of the borrowing base amount
under the RBL will only be finalised on 30 April 2020, this should
support Ithaca's ability to retain adequate availability under its
RBL facility post redetermination.

At the end of 2019, Moody's estimates that Ithaca had adjusted
total debt of $1.6 billion with gross leverage around 1.7x. It is
estimated that approximately 30% of Ithaca's $250 million 2020
capital expenditure programme (including approximately $20 million
of decommissioning expenditure) can be stopped, while 2021 capex is
essentially uncommitted at this stage. This gives the group further
capacity to conserve cash. Moody's estimates that based on the
current hedging book Ithaca should be free cash flow (FCF) positive
after capex under a range oil price scenarios and Moody's-adjusted
gross leverage should remain below 2.5x in 2020.

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW

The review will focus on (i) the outcome to the ongoing RBL
redetermination to be completed by the end of April 2020, and the
level of availabilities retained by the group considering a
projected drawn amount of around $900 million at the end of Q1
2020; (ii) the potential ramifications of Delek's current financial
difficulties on Ithaca's credit profile and (iii) the potential
operational disruptions and loss of production that may result from
the coronavirus outbreak.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

Ithaca's major borrowings, including the $1.65 billion RBL facility
and $500 million senior notes, are guaranteed by essentially all of
its producing subsidiaries. The two-notch differential between the
rating of the senior unsecured notes and the CFR, reflects the
substantial amount of secured liabilities outstanding under the RBL
facility, which rank ahead of the senior notes within the capital
structure.

The notes are senior unsecured guaranteed obligations but are
subordinated in right of payment to all existing and future senior
secured obligations of the guarantors, including their obligations
under the RBL facility, which is secured by first ranking fixed and
floating charges over all the assets of the borrower and the
guarantors under the facility.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP

While unlikely at this juncture, a rating upgrade would require
that Ithaca (i) further strengthens its resource base so that it
can lift its production above 100 kboepd and proved reserve life
into the high single digits on a sustained basis; (ii) keeps
leverage moderate with adjusted total debt to EBITDA below 2x; and
(iii) maintains a solid liquidity profile.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN

Conversely, the ratings could come under pressure should Ithaca
fail to (i) maintain adequate liquidity and headroom under its RBL
facility; (ii) generate sufficient free cash flow and materially
reduce debt; (iii) rebuild the financial headroom necessary to
access and develop new resources in order to sustain its production
profile and maintain an adequate reserve life.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Independent
Exploration and Production Industry published in May 2017.

Ithaca Energy Limited is a UK-based independent exploration and
production company with all of its assets and production in the
United Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS) region of the North Sea.
The company's growth strategy is focused on the appraisal and
development of undeveloped discoveries while maximizing production
from its existing asset base. On a pro-forma basis, Ithaca's
production averaged 75,000 boepd (63% liquids) in 2019.

KELDA FINANCE: S&P Withdraws 'BB-' Long-Term Issuer Credit Rating
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings withdrew its 'BB-' long-term issuer credit
rating on Kelda Finance (No. 3) PLC (Kelda). At the time of the
withdrawal, the outlook on the long-term issuer credit rating was
negative.

Successful refinancing alleviates any near-term liquidity
concerns.

Kelda successfully completed the refinancing of its GBP200 million
bullet bond maturing in February 2020, spreading future maturities
out to 2028. While this will limit future refinancing risks to a
certain extent, in S&P's view Kelda remains subject to risks
related to its 18-month GBP80 million bank facility.

Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of a testing final
determination and the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA)
appeal continues to limit the visibility on Kelda's future role for
Yorkshire Water Services Ltd. (YWS).

Kelda is the holding company of the U.K. water regulated company
YWS. In February 2020, YWS asked the regulator Ofwat to refer its
final determination of the 2019 price review to the CMA, with a
decision likely over the next six to 12 months. The decision to
appeal reflects the company's view that the final determination
does not allow it to meet the long-term hurdles it faces beyond the
next regulatory period, and its concerns that the final
determination does not adequately capture customers' priorities.
S&P's current base case does not assume any material changes on
YWS' operating conditions during the next regulatory period, based
on the outcome of the CMA's review.

S&P said, "In our current base case, we assume a gradual erosion of
YWS' credit metrics to below our rating thresholds on both classes
of debt (senior secured and subordinated) toward the end of the
AMP7 regulatory period. While we expect upstream distributions from
YWS to cover Kelda's interest costs over the next regulatory
period, we note that the group expects to reflect those tougher
operating conditions in its dividend policy by not paying its
ultimate shareholder dividends, and by aspiring to reduce gearing
toward 70% by the end of the next regulatory period, from the
current 76.8%. We believe this will be difficult for YWS to
achieve, and we cannot rule out potential additional capital
injections from Kelda. That said, capital injections are not part
of our base case at this stage."

Kelda's outlook was negative at the time of the rating withdrawal,
reflecting the risk that leverage may increase if Kelda issues
additional debt to finance capital injections. The negative outlook
also reflects the refinancing risk regarding the 18-month GBP80
million bank facility maturing in mid-2021.


LOMBOK: Enters Administration, 43 Jobs Affected
-----------------------------------------------
Elias Jahshan at Retail Gazette reports that low consumer
confidence and the recent coronavirus pandemic has caused furniture
retailer Lombok into administration, resulting in the redundancies
of all 43 members of staff.

Brian Burke and Sean Bucknall of business advisory firm Quantuma
were appointed as joint administrators for Angora Retail Limited,
which trades as Lombok, on March 27, Retail Gazette relates.

Lombok entered administration following a period of difficult
trading resulting from low consumer spending and confidence in the
lead up to 2020, Retail Gazette notes.

Its position has not improved and the detrimental impact on the
retail sector as a direct result of the current coronavirus crisis
subsequently pushed it into administration, Retail Gazette states.

All 43 members of staff have been made redundant, Retail Gazette
discloses.

Lombok has been through two pre-pack administrations previously --
one in 2009 when Privet Capital bought the group and the second in
2011 when it was bought by Lombok's private owner, Retail Gazette
recounts.

Prior to appointment, Quantuma conducted an accelerated marketing
process, but it was unable to conclude a sale, Retail Gazette
relays.

Discussions remain ongoing with a view to selling the brand and
intellectual property rights, and the administrators said it would
continue welcome interest from any parties, according to Retail
Gazette.

Founded in 1998, the retailer is a multichannel homeware brand
selling handcrafted furniture, lighting and accessories via its own
website and a flagship store in central London.


NEPTUNE ENERGY: Moody's Places Ba3 CFR on Review for Downgrade
--------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has placed on review for downgrade the
Ba3 Corporate Family Rating and Ba3-PD Probability of Default
Rating of Neptune Energy Group Midco Limited as well as the B1
rating assigned to Neptune Energy Bondco Plc's senior unsecured
notes due 2025. The previous outlook on the company was positive.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The E&P sector has
been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the shock
given its sensitivity to demand and oil prices.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. The action reflects the impact on Neptune of the
breadth and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in
credit quality it has triggered.

The rating action reflects the fact that despite the commodity
hedges put in place by Neptune, which help protect a significant
portion of post-tax cash flow on a three-year rolling basis by
covering 50-70% of post-tax production in the first year, 30-50% in
the second year and 15-30% in the third year, an extended period of
low commodity prices would still hurt the group's credit profile.

Moody's expects that lower operating profitability combined with
investments of $1.3- $1.4 billion in 2020, including the
acquisition of Edison E&P's UK and Norwegian assets from Energean
Oil and Gas plc (contingent on Energean completing its proposed
acquisition of Edison E&P), will lead to some deterioration in
Neptune's credit metrics. Moody's believes that should oil and gas
prices fail to recover from current levels, the group's adjusted
gross leverage will increase markedly in 2020, with adjusted total
debt to EBITDA rising towards 4x compared to Moody's estimate of
1.7x at year-end 2019.

Following the $300 million add-on to the existing 2025 bond issue
in October 2019, Moody's estimates that Neptune had available
liquidity of around $1.2 billion under the RBL facility at the end
of 2019. However, the group's future liquidity profile will depend
on the outcome of the ongoing redetermination of the RBL, which
includes an accordion feature for an increase to up to $4 billion
and is due to be completed by the end of March 2020.

Neptune's rating is underpinned by the robust operating
track-record established by the group since its $3.3 billion
acquisition of the oil and gas business of ENGIE SA (A3 stable) in
February 2018. Neptune markedly strengthened its reserve position
with 2P reserves of 638 million barrels of oil equivalent per day
(mmboe) at the end of 2018 compared to 555 mmboe at the end of
2017. In addition, Moody's expects that the group's reserve
position and production profile will further benefit from the
recent acquisitions in Indonesia and the UK and Norwegian sectors
of the North Sea.

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW

The review will focus on (i) the outcome to the ongoing RBL
redetermination to be completed by the end of March 2020, and the
level of availabilities retained by the group after funding
investments; and (ii) the potential operational disruptions and
loss of production that may result from the coronavirus outbreak.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

The B1 rating assigned to Neptune Energy Bondco Plc's senior
unsecured notes (including the proposed issuance), which is
guaranteed by some of the operating subsidiaries, reflects the fact
that the notes are senior subordinated obligations of the
respective guarantors and subordinated to all existing and future
senior obligations of those guarantors, including their obligations
under the RBL facility. In addition, the notes are structurally
subordinated to all existing and future obligations and other
liabilities (including trade payables) of Neptune's subsidiaries
that are not guarantors. The narrowing of the rating differential
between the notes and the CFR to one notch against two notches
previously reflects the smaller priority claim held by the RBL
lenders in proportion to the group's enlarged asset base.

However, there is a risk of higher subordination of the notes which
in turn could lead to further notching downwards, should Neptune
materially increase RBL drawdowns amid negative FCF and/or upsize
the RBL, which has an accordion feature for an increase to up to $4
billion.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING - UP

Although unlikely at this juncture, the ratings could be upgraded
if the company delivers the expected improvement in terms of its
production profile and 2P reserve life, while lowering adjusted
total debt to EBITDA below 2.5x and retained cash flow (RCF) to
total debt above 30% on a sustainable basis and maintaining strong
liquidity.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING - DOWN

The ratings could be downgraded should (i) the group's liquidity
profile weaken post RBL redetermination amid sustained negative FCF
generation (ii) leverage increase so that adjusted total debt to
EBITDA remains above 3.5x and/or RCF to total debt falls below 20%
for a prolonged period; and (iii) the production profile and/or
reserve life of the company significantly deteriorate.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Independent
Exploration and Production Industry published in May 2017.

Headquartered in London (UK), Neptune Energy Group Midco Ltd.
(Neptune) is the holding company of a medium-sized independent
exploration and production oil and gas group, with hydrocarbon
resources located mainly in the Norwegian, UK and Dutch sectors of
the North Sea (70% of total 2P reserves of 638 mmboe) as well as in
Germany, North Africa (Egypt and Algeria) and the Asia Pacific
region (Indonesia, Australia).

In the twelve months to June 30, 2019, Neptune reported average
production of 153.8 kboepd split between natural gas (including
LNG) for 71% and liquids for 29%. It generated revenues of $2.7
billion and EBITDAX of $2.0 billion. Neptune is scheduled to
publish its 2019 annual results on March 31, 2020.

NEPTUNE ENERGY: S&P Alters Outlook to Negative & Affirms 'BB-' ICR
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings took rating actions on 10 Europe-based
integrated oil and gas groups and E&P companies as part of its
global review of the sector following the oil price collapse.

S&P said, "At investment grade, we revised our outlooks to negative
and affirmed the ratings on Aker BP ASA, Eni SpA, Equinor ASA, and
Total S.A. We also revised our outlooks to stable from positive and
affirmed the ratings on BP PLC, MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas PLC, and
Repsol S.A..

"The rating actions reflect our forecast of weak debt coverage
measures for these companies in 2020 as well as varying degrees of
uncertainty about the rate of recovery to rating-commensurate
levels in 2021 and beyond.

"In speculative grade, we lowered our ratings on EnQuest PLC to
'CCC+' from 'B-' and revised the outlook to negative from positive
and our ratings on Tullow Oil to 'CCC+' from 'B' and maintained the
negative outlook. We also affirmed our 'BB-' ratings on Neptune
Energy Group Midco Ltd and revised the outlook to negative from
positive."

These downgrades reflect potential liquidity challenges over time
and much weaker free operating cash flow (FOCF) than previously
forecast, in spite of protection from some oil-price hedging.

S&P ranked the following actions in ratings order. If the rating is
the same, there is no particular order.

                                To              From
  Investment-grade issuers  

  Equinor ASA           AA-/Negative/A-1+      AA-/Stable/A-1+

  Total S.A.            A+/Negative/A-1        A+/Positive/A-1

  BP PLC                A-/Stable/A-2          A-/Positive/A-2

  Eni SpA               A-/Negative/A-2        A-/Stable/A-2

  Repsol S.A.           BBB/Stable/A-2         BBB/Positive/A-2

  MOL Hungarian Oil
    and Gas PLC         BBB-/Stable/--         BBB-/Positive/--

  Aker BP ASA           BBB-/Negative/--       BBB-/Stable/--

  Speculative-grade issuers  

  Neptune Energy
    Group Midco Ltd     BB-/Negative/--        BB-/Positive/--

  EnQuest PLC           CCC+/Negative/--       B-/Positive/--

  Tullow Oil            CCC+/Negative/--       B/Negative/--

S&P said, "In other separate rating actions in recent days we
downgraded Exxon Mobil Corp. to 'AA' from 'AA+' and revised the
outlooks on both Chevron Corp. (AA) and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (AA-)
to negative from stable. Our ratings and outlooks on CEPSA
(BBB-/Stable/A-3) and Matador Bidco S.a r.l. (BB-/Stable/--) are
unchanged. We expect to conclude our reviews of refiners, oil field
service companies, and drillers shortly. We will also publish a
separate note on Russian and Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) entities."

Oil and gas industry cash flows and credit metrics are under
intense pressure. Gas prices and refining margins have been low for
several quarters. Oil markets are now heading into a period of a
severe supply-demand imbalance in second-quarter 2020. The acute
oversupply threatens to test the limits of crude and product
storage as soon as May, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics.
In turn, spot and futures prices are testing multi-year lows.

S&P said, "Our review of the sector follows the recent revision of
our oil and gas price assumptions. As a direct consequence of these
revised price assumptions, we have updated our forecasts on E&P
companies. Before this downturn, 2019 financial results were
typically only moderate, with several companies reporting credit
metrics close to the lower thresholds for our ratings.
Consequently, in most cases credit metrics are likely to be below
our ratings guidelines for 2020, since headroom is generally low to
modest. Our analyses on investment-grade companies explicitly
factor in our current projections for 2021-2022, which include a
demand rebound for oil as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
recede. Therefore, we forecast a meaningful recovery over this
period. Our cash flow debt coverage metrics, based on the average
over three or five years, typically result in meaningfully lower
headroom compared with companies' balance-sheet-based debt leverage
targets.

"Compared with the 2014-2016 industry downturn, costs are lower and
annual cash flow after dividends may remain positive for many large
companies, but debt is still relatively high. Over the coming
months, we will focus on the timeliness and effectiveness of
companies' actions to protect liquidity and balance sheets and
reduce costs and outgoings. We recognize that many companies may
provide further updates and guidance on cash conservation steps and
other measures. We will also consider the balance of cuts and
payment deferrals made by companies between investments and
shareholder returns. As we noted in 2016, oil majors' decisions to
cut investment to facilitate generous shareholder distributions are
negative from a credit perspective, in part because lower
investment will affect future cash-generating assets. This remains
our view, notwithstanding the longer-term implications of climate
change on demand for oil and gas, especially since investment in
alternative businesses may also fall as capital expenditure (capex)
is cut."

S&P has focused on the imminent price-related risks in this review.
Over time, S&P may increasingly factor in the apparently increasing
volatility of the sector and the extent to which the integrated
model is an effective hedge. Also, the sector is facing increasing
direct and indirect actual and potential pressures from investors
and other stakeholders given its integral involvement in climate
change.

For lower-rated credits, liquidity is paramount since
creditworthiness is especially exposed to external market
conditions. A particular concern is the potential for distressed
exchanges or telegraphed market debt purchases below par, in
addition to restructurings--all of which S&P typically treats as
defaults. S&P perceives significant risk across the high-yield
sector globally that management teams may be tempted to reduce
their debt burdens as peers do so.

S&P's overall base-case assumptions include:

-- A Brent oil price of $30/bbl for the remainder of 2020, $50/bbl
in 2021, and $55/bbl in 2022 and thereafter.

-- A material drop in EBITDA as sharp price declines are only
partly offset by cost-cutting measures and foreign-exchange
movements. S&P assumes refining margins will also be weak in
second-quarter 2020 and remain volatile.

-- Lower effective tax rates and payments.

-- Capex in 2020 generally about 15%-20% lower than in 2019.

-- Maintenance of cash dividends, where paid, for most companies
but no further share buybacks.

-- Contracted asset disposal proceeds and a portion of other
indicated disposals.

INVESTMENT-GRADE ISSUERS

Equinor ASA

Primary analyst: Alexander Griaznov

S&P said, "We have revised our outlook on Equinor to negative from
stable because we believe it would take at least 18 months for the
company to restore its credit metrics to the level we see
commensurate with the rating. With the $30 oil price assumption for
2020, funds from operations (FFO) to debt will decline to about 35%
this year from 60% currently, because the drop in oil and gas
prices will be exacerbated by the six-month tax lag effect.
However, accounting for Equinor's historically conservative
financial policy, we believe the company will come up with measures
to protect its balance sheet, similar to its actions in 2015. These
measures could include lower capex and shareholder remuneration.
Equinor has already announced the cancellation of buybacks and we
believe the company will also cut capex, in line with its peers,
but do not exclude more actions if current market conditions
continue." This could bring metrics close to 60% toward year-end
2021, provided that oil and gas prices improve, in line with our
base-case scenario.

Supporting the 'AA-' rating is Equinor's relatively strong
positioning in terms of costs since many of its new projects in the
North Sea boast impressive break-even levels of $20/bbl or below.
The Norwegian tax system continues to support the company at times
of low commodity prices, because the Norwegian government takes the
biggest hit, further buffering downside risks for Equinor.
Therefore, S&P believes the company is generally better positioned
to withstand low oil prices compared with the majority of purely
upstream players.

Outlook

S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects the likelihood that we
could lower the rating on Equinor if prices remain depressed for
longer than we anticipate or if the company's response to market
conditions were to be insufficient. We believe that Equinor's 2020
credit metrics will be well below the rating-commensurate FFO to
debt of about 60%." However, they could recover back to this level
in 2021 if Brent prices improve to $50/bbl and management adjusts
capex and shareholder remuneration.

Downside scenario:  S&P could lower the rating if oil prices stayed
at or below $50 in 2021 and subsequent years. This would be
unlikely to allow Equinor to improve FFO to debt back to about 60%
and could result in a lower rating. However, in such a scenario,
the effect would likely be limited by one notch, since ownership by
the 'AAA' rated Norwegian government would likely prevent further
downside.

Upside scenario:   S&P could revise the outlook to stable if
improved commodity prices, coupled with balance-sheet-protective
measures, lift FFO to debt to above 60%--a level that the company
has maintained for several years.

Total S.A.
Primary analyst: Edouard Okasmaa

S&P said, "We revised the outlook to negative from positive and
affirmed the 'A+/A-1' long- and short-term issuer credit ratings.

"We are affirming our 'A+' rating because Total's commitment to a
robust balance sheet (the company has a gearing target of below
20%) and ability to take mitigating actions are key rating
strengths. The company has already announced organic capex cuts of
more than $3 billion (more than 20%), reducing 2020 net investments
to less than $15 billion; increased 2020 operating expenditure
(opex) savings by $500 million; and stopped the share buyback
program. Gearing is nonetheless guided to potentially increase by
about 3% and hence be above the 20% target in 2020. Although the
company is less likely to see material support from the downstream
segment in the current supply-and-demand shock that is putting
markets in imbalance, it enters this weak environment with a
stronger balance sheet and lower opex than in 2014. Capex is also
lower since the company has already expanded significantly in the
past couple of years. Having said that, we think the high
instability and reduced visibility on market developments increases
risks, and our revised base case factors FFO to debt dropping below
40% in 2020, compared with 40%-45% in 2018 and 2019, before
bouncing back to above that level in 2021. This is still in line
with an 'A+' long-term rating, but we acknowledge that weaker
scenarios, notably in downstream, could lead to downward
pressure."

Outlook

The negative outlook reflects the risk of a one-notch downgrade
over the next six-to-12 months, absent S&P's assumed gradual
improvement in oil prices in 2021 and management's commitment and
ability to limit the effect of lower oil and gas prices. FFO to
debt at about 45% on average is commensurate with the current
rating, in S&P's opinion.

Downside scenario:  S&P could consider a downgrade if FFO to debt
falls below 30% on a sustained basis over 2020, or if it does not
see this ratio progressing toward 45% by 2021. FFO to debt could
fail to improve due to persistently lower hydrocarbon prices, or a
significant fall in downstream profits, which could be the case if
the current supply-and-demand shock is long term.

Upside scenario:  S&P could revise the outlook to stable if it sees
an earlier and sustained recovery in Total's credit metrics to
35%-40% in 2020 and close to 45% in 2021, combined with neutral or
positive cash flow after dividends. This could result from a more
sustained oil price recovery in the short term to $55/bbl or more,
compared with its 2020 assumption of $30/bbl. Capex reductions,
lower shareholder distributions, and other measures not already
anticipated that would significantly mitigate the loss in operating
cash flow would also be supportive of a stable outlook.

BP PLC
Primary analyst: Simon Redmond

S&P said, "We are affirming our 'A-/A-2' ratings on BP PLC and
revising the outlook to stable from positive since both market
conditions and credit metrics currently make an upgrade unlikely in
the next year.

"We project BP's FFO to debt will deteriorate less than peers' in
2020. Although FFO may decline by about one-third, we forecast
discretionary cash flow, after dividends, will remain positive. The
announced but yet-to-complete disposals should therefore reduce
adjusted debt by at least $6 billion and result in FFO to debt of
25%-30% in 2020 and about 35% in 2021. As our multi-year threshold
for the rating is 30%, the company still faces rating downside
risk, but to a lesser degree than some peers. Importantly, we
believe the potential of a downgrade by one notch into the 'BBB'
category provides BP with a strong incentive to bolster
balance-sheet strength."

Outlook

S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that BP will dip
below the 30% FFO to debt rating threshold in 2020, but recover
meaningfully in 2021 under our price assumptions, assisted by
announced disposal proceeds. We anticipate timely cost and capex
reduction measures and that BP at least concludes the announced $6
billion of disposals in 2020. We do not currently project any
substantial negative cash flow after shareholder distributions this
year. Historical and projected FFO to debt consistently above 30%
on a multi-year basis would be commensurate with our 'A-' rating.

"Nonetheless, given the heightened industry uncertainty across BP's
businesses, we assume it will take decisive and effective steps to
protect its assets, cash generation, and credit metrics under
scenarios with oil and market gas prices below our industry
assumptions."

Downside scenario:  S&P said, "We do not exclude ratings downside
over the next year but presently see BP as having the capacity and
commitment to avoid a downgrade to 'BBB+' in the absence of low
average prices persisting in 2021. We could lower the rating if FFO
to debt remained below 30% for a long period, particularly if the
market environment or BP's financial policies are unsupportive."

BP's exposure to Russia, via its stake in Rosneft Oil Co. PJSC
(BBB-/Stable--), remains a potential weakness from a credit quality
perspective. Direct financial exposure is currently limited to the
amount of dividends that BP receives as Rosneft's minority
shareholder. However, severe geopolitical tensions leading to BP
losing its material and valuable stake in Rosneft would be more
likely to have negative rating implications.

Upside scenario:  An upgrade is improbable in the near term, but
S&P could raise the ratings in time if BP proves resilient in the
current downturn and oil prices recover sustainably over 2021. This
could allow BP to deleverage, reduce debt more meaningfully, and
build greater credit metrics headroom. It would also require a
conservative approach to growth and shareholder remuneration.

To support an upgrade, S&P would expect FFO to debt to reach a
sustainable average of at least 40%, which it thinks is unlikely in
the next one-to-two years, based on our current oil price
assumptions.

Eni SPA
Primary analyst: Edouard Okasmaa

The outlook revision reflects the relatively higher upstream
exposure putting operating cash flow at risk, but flexible and
conservative financial policies support the rating in the near
term, underpinning the affirmation. Eni's exposure to oil and gas
is significant, representing virtually all of the group's adjusted
operating profit in 2019. A drop of $1 in oil price translates into
a loss of EUR150 million in free cash flow. However, when there is
a larger drop (as S&P anticipates), the sensitivity would be less
pronounced for each decline of $1, notably given taxes and royalty
declines, as well as a strengthening dollar. S&P nevertheless
anticipates cash flow from operations to fall below EUR9 billion
(about EUR12.5 billion in 2019) and FFO to debt to be about 35% in
2020. Still, the share buyback program has already been paused, and
the rapid measures, coupled with further opportunities to mitigate
the fall in cash flows such as capex flexibility, support a return
to 45% FFO to debt by 2021. There is uncertainty about how hard the
downstream operations in Italy will be hit. They represent less
than 10% of group cash flows, so it is more important that we see
an oil price improvement in line with our base case to support
metrics improvements.

Outlook

The negative outlook reflects the likelihood that S&P could
downgrade Eni to 'BBB+', even within the year, if it sees continued
pressure on operating performance, including weak oil and gas
prices and potentially refining margins. In S&P's base-case
scenario, it assumes Eni will achieve FFO to debt of about 30% in
2020 and get closer to 45% in 2021.

Downside scenario:  S&P said, "We could lower our rating on Eni
over the next two years, and even in 2020, if debt increases on the
back of materially negative discretionary cash flow, mostly because
of weak industry conditions, and we do not see a clear FFO to debt
recovery toward and above 45% by 2021. We would likely not lower
the rating on Eni if we downgraded Italy (unsolicited;
BBB/Negative/A-2) by one notch to 'BBB-'. However, if the rating
differential increased to three notches, we would likely more
closely correlate our ratings on Eni with those on Italy."

Upside scenario:  S&P said, "We could revise the outlook to stable
if we concluded that the market environment and management's
actions were likely to support improvement of FFO to debt to a
level higher than 45%. This could be the case if oil prices were to
improve quicker than in our base-case scenario. We could also
revise the outlook to stable if the company took significant
financial policy decisions that would support credit metrics and
largely offset the diminishing operating cash flows in a $30 oil
environment."

REPSOL S.A.
Primary analyst: Christophe Boulier

S&P said, "The outlook revision reflects lower rating headroom due
to the profit contraction we now expect this year as a result of
our sharply reduced oil and gas price assumptions. We believe that
the company's financial performance will be materially affected by
the decline in Brent to $30/bbl on average in 2020 from about
$60/bbl in 2019.

"We now forecast FFO to debt of about 30% in 2020, compared with
52%-55% in our previous expectations. However, we factor in our
projections improved credit measures from 2021 onward on the back
of an oil sector recovery and higher hydrocarbon prices.

"The current rating is supported by our perception of the company's
willingness and ability to perform a variety of actions to mitigate
the negative effect of the lower price environment, including capex
cuts and asset sales. Combined, this should enable Repsol to
achieve about 40% FFO to debt on average, in our view. We also view
favorably Repsol's business diversification into downstream
activities, which should make the company more resilient to the
downturn and less sensitive to oil-price volatility than peers."

Outlook

S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that the company
will focus on reducing its net debt position to withstand the
sector downturn and limit the effect of lower hydrocarbon prices.
We project that FFO to debt will reach a low of about 30% in 2020,
which we view as weak for the current rating. However, we believe
the company will succeed in adjusting its costs and discretionary
spending and divest assets to reach 40% FFO to debt beyond 2020, on
the back of its diversified business activities."

Downside scenario:  S&P said, "We could lower the rating by one
notch if we forecast FFO to debt would fall closer to 30% on
average. This could happen if market conditions deteriorate more or
for a longer period than we currently anticipate, which would
hamper demand for commodities, or if the company did not succeed in
undertaking measures to reduce its net debt in the next few
quarters to withstand lower hydrocarbon prices and a global
recession."

Upside scenario:  S&P said, "We see rating upside as remote in the
next 12 months given the very challenging market conditions and
lack of visibility regarding any future sector recovery. However,
this could be supported by positive changes in the business, both
in terms of the continued focus on upstream value and efficiency
and downstream diversification, if coupled with FFO to debt above
50% over the cycle. If we do not deem the business trends
sufficient to support higher resilience and cash flow generation,
we could also raise the rating if FFO to debt was closer to 60% on
a weighted-five-year-average basis."

MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas PLC
Primary analyst: Edouard Okasmaa

S&P said, "We are affirming our ratings on MOL because we believe
the lower relative upstream exposure and conservative financial
policies support the rating. However, near-term upside has
vanished, in our view, leading us to revise our outlook on the
company to stable from positive. There is the flexibility to lower
capex in the years to come, potentially delaying construction of
major projects. We believe MOL will use these tools to protect the
balance sheet, and that there is a limited likelihood of a
downgrade in the near term under our base-case scenario. The
company's exposure to oil and gas is significant (about 45% of
Clean, current-cost of supply EBITDA in 2019), but the downstream
segment is relatively larger. Even if the ACG acquisition in
Azerbaijan (not yet part of our base-case scenario but due to close
in second-quarter 2020) will boost production by about 20,000
barrels per day, we still view sensitivity to oil prices to be less
than similarly rated upstream peers."

Outlook

S&P said, "The stable outlook reflects our view that, despite our
assumptions of challenging market conditions in the next 12 months,
MOL's business resilience and diversity, will limit the overall
effect on credit metrics. We anticipate that FFO to debt will
remain close to 60% over a five-year average, a level commensurate
with the 'BBB-' rating."

Downside scenario:  S&P said, "We could lower the rating in the
next 12 months if a much weaker macroeconomic scenario unfolds,
including low oil prices (below our $30 assumption for 2020) and
weak refining margins stemming from a global recession and weak
demand for refined products. These scenarios could lead to FFO to
debt falling below 45% on average without prospects for a quick
recovery."

Upside scenario:  S&P said, "We could raise the rating in the next
12-24 months if MOL's improving business mix and diversification,
coupled with a markedly stronger market environment and
conservative financial policies, lead to FFO to debt of about 60%
through the cycle. This would also require cash flows after capex
and dividends to be at least neutral."

Aker BP ASA
Primary analyst: Edouard Okasmaa

S&P said, "We have affirmed our ratings on Aker BP because we
believe that management will take measures to address reduced cash
flows from weaker oil prices in 2020. The company has already
announced a 20% cut in capex in 2020 and could lower it more
significantly in 2021 if lower oil prices persist. We anticipate
FFO to debt will be well below 45% in 2020 but bounce back in 2021.
However, the outlook revision reflects us seeing downside risks to
our base-case scenario, notably if the recovery in oil prices takes
longer than we anticipate."

The rating continues to be supported by low operating costs, world
class assets, and a portfolio of organic growth that provides
visibility on mid-term production levels. Although Aker BP has no
diversification outside upstream and Norway, some aspects of the
business provide relative resilience. Taxes, which are high in
Norway, limit upside when prices are high but also limit downside
in our current scenario. Furthermore, the Norwegian krone has
materially weakened against the U.S. dollar during the oil price
collapse, which should result in operating expenditure of
$7/bbl-$8/bbl in 2020. Aker BP continues to maintain very strong
liquidity with no major near-term debt maturities. As of March 20,
2020, it has available cash and undrawn credit facilities of $3.9
billion.

Outlook

S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects our view that, amid weak
industry conditions for oil producers, and despite a relatively
lower FFO effect on Aker BP on the back of the high tax regime, the
downside risk to our base-case scenario is significant and could
lead to its inability to restore credit metrics to a level we see
commensurate with a 'BBB-' rating, namely average FFO to debt of
about 45%. The company's recent actions, notably capex cuts, are
supportive nonetheless and reduce downside risk."

Downside scenario:   S&P said, "We could lower the ratings on Aker
BP if credit measures do not improve such that projected FFO to
debt is below 45% for a sustained period. This could occur if crude
oil and natural gas prices were to remain low and below our price
assumptions of $30/bbl of Brent for the rest of 2020 and $50/bbl
for 2021, and offsetting measures such as dividend cuts or
decreased capex would not be sufficient to mitigate shrinking
FFO."

Upside scenario:  S&P said, "We could revise the outlook to stable
if oil price development is in line with our base-case assumptions
while potential offsetting measures would provide a clear path to
full recovery of credit metrics to the level we see as consistent
with the 'BBB-' rating in the next 12-24 months."

SPECULATIVE-GRADE ISSUERS

Neptune Energy Group Midco Ltd.
Primary analyst: Ivan Tiutiunnikov

S&P said, "We have affirmed the rating on Neptune as we think the
drop in credit metrics in 2020 will be temporary and FFO to debt
will improve back to 20%-25%, a level we see commensurate with the
'BB-' rating. However, we have revised our outlook to negative from
positive, reflecting downside risks in case oil prices take longer
to rebound from about $25/bbl currently. We expect that Neptune
will generate EBITDA of $1.0 billion-$1.1 billion in 2020, compared
with our previous expectation of $1.4 billion-$1.5 billion. The
decline is partly limited thanks to the company's hedging of
slightly more than 50% of its total production (oil production is
hedged less than gas production). Still, we expect that the
significant capex plan and pending acquisition of Energean assets,
will mean Neptune posts negative FOCF in 2020. We note that the
company has some flexibility to cut capex and opex, which could
provide downside protection. Weaker cash flow generation could
translate into reported net debt to EBITDA plus exploration expense
(EBITDAX) above the 2x guidance for 2020. In such a scenario, we
would expect the company to cancel dividends to protect the balance
sheet, in line with its financial policy."

Outlook

S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects that we may lower the
rating in the next 12 months if FFO to debt stayed consistently
below our 20% target for the current rating. We expect FFO to debt
of 15%-20% in 2020, which is below the threshold. This is partly
due to Neptune's significant expansion plans in 2020 that will lead
to increased leverage amid reduced oil and gas prices."

Downside scenario:  S&P said, "We could downgrade Neptune if FFO to
debt declined below 20% on a consistent basis. This scenario could
materialize if oil prices remained at about $30/bbl for longer than
we currently expect, or if the company faced operational issues
leading to EBITDA losses. We may also lower the rating due to
rising liquidity pressure. In such a scenario, net debt to EBITDAX
could move toward the 3.5x covenant under the company's
reserve-based loan (RBL)."

Upside scenario:  S&P would revise the outlook to stable if FFO to
debt stays above 20%, as a result of more supportive prices,
proactive cost management, or shareholder support such as an equity
injection. Although not expected in the next 12-18 months, FFO to
debt of about 30% and above would likely make S&P consider an
upgrade.

EnQuest PLC
Primary analyst: Ivan Tiutiunnikov

S&P said, "The downgrade reflects mounting liquidity pressure and
our expectation of adjusted debt to EBITDA above 5x, exacerbated by
possible negative free cash flow in 2020. To protect cash flow amid
lower prices, EnQuest announced that it would reduce operating
expenses and capex and it now expects a break-even oil price of
about $38/bbl in 2020. With our assumption of Brent at $30/bbl for
the rest of the year, the risk of free cash flow turning negative
is still significant, although we understand that the company might
introduce further cost-saving initiatives. Negative free cash flow
could in turn reduce liquidity headroom ahead of the credit
facility maturity in October 2021 ($65 million due in April 2021,
and $360 million due in October 2021). From Jan. 1, 2021, our
12-month forward liquidity estimate could point to a shortfall if
the facility is not refinanced. We understand the company is
confident that it would be able to refinance the facility, with a
pre-financing transaction as one option. That said, in the
prevailing low oil price environment we would expect a significant
drop in EBITDA and adjusted debt to EBITDA materially above our
estimated 3.0x-3.5x in 2019. Therefore, any transaction remains
uncertain and cannot be factored into our base case.

"In addition, we note that the company's bonds are trading with a
very significant discount to par, although this is not too
different from its peers. Still, given the rising likelihood of
defaults in the sector, we think restructuring will remain a
possibility for EnQuest, although we understand it has to be agreed
by the banks. We anticipate that the company will try to preserve
cash through the downturn and so would not engage in bond buybacks.
If the company were to announce the purchase of the bonds and we
thought that investors were receiving less than the original
promise, we could see this as a selective default, lowering the
rating accordingly."

Outlook

S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects that we might downgrade
EnQuest over the next 12 months if its liquidity situation
deteriorates. We expect the company may generate negative free cash
flow this year, which will put its liquidity at risk ahead of the
credit facility maturity in October 2021."

Downside scenario:  S&P could downgrade EnQuest if it had acute
liquidity pressure. Such a scenario could materialize if, as of
Jan. 1, 2021, its 12-month forward liquidity estimate pointed to a
significant shortfall, which could be the case if the credit
facility were not refinanced.

Alternatively, S&P could also lower the rating if the company
bought bonds at significant discount or announced a distressed
exchange.

Upside scenario:  S&P said, "We could revise the outlook to stable
if EnQuest secured funds to refinance the credit facility maturing
in October 2021, and maintained adequate liquidity headroom to
address price volatility. We could raise the rating back to 'B-' if
market conditions improve with oil prices sustainably rising to
$50/bbl-$55/bbl. This would allow EnQuest to generate positive free
cash flow and reduce adjusted debt to EBITDA to below 4x."

Tullow Oil
Primary analyst: Elad Jelasko

S&P said, "The downgrade reflects a downward revision of our
expectation for Tullow's cash flow in 2020 and potential liquidity
issues. The recent material drop in oil prices has caught Tullow at
a time when it is downsizing its operations and addressing its high
level of absolute debt. Tullow's reported gross debt was $3.1
billion as of Dec. 31, 2019. Earlier this year, we assumed that the
company would generate free cash flow of about $150 million in
2020, with an oil price of $60 per barrel (/bbl). We now assume
negative free cash flow of up to $30 million. The drop in the
company's cash flow could have been even worse, were it not for its
sizable hedge book.

"Despite Tullow's track record of prudent liquidity management, we
now see its liquidity position as fragile. Tullow is currently
progressing the scheduled semi-annual review of its RBL and expects
the process to conclude with debt capacity of $1.9 billion by March
31, 2020. We expect that Tullow will need to obtain a waiver later
in the year to avoid a likely breach of the financial covenant on
the RBL at year-end 2020. Furthermore, Tullow needs to address the
maturity of its $300 million senior unsecured notes due in July
2021. With current oil prices unsustainably low, achieving each one
of these milestones is not a foregone conclusion. As of January
2020, Tullow had $97 million of unrestricted cash on its balance
sheet and $1,060 million under its RBL (or $560 million post the
undergoing review).

"In our view, when assuming no or limited availability under the
RBL post the undergoing review or because of the risk of a
financial covenant breach later this year, Tullow will be unable to
offset the cash flow shortfall over the next 12 months and address
the upcoming debt maturities with internal measures (such as
operating costs, capex, and exploration budgets). We understand
that Tullow is looking to divest key assets, including selling some
of its stakes in its projects in Uganda and Kenya, with the aim of
obtaining total proceeds of at least $1 billion. At this stage, we
do not include these proceeds in our base case."

Outlook

S&P said, "The negative outlook reflects our view that Tullow's
weak liquidity position could deteriorate further in the coming
six-to-12 months, leading to a distressed exchange offer or even a
default.

"Under our base-case scenario, and assuming a Brent oil price of
$30/bbl for the rest of the year, we expect Tullow to generate
negative free cash flow of up to $30 million in 2020. If oil prices
recover to $50/bbl in 2021, we expect Tullow to report breakeven
free cash flow."

Downside Scenario:  In S&P's view, the likelihood of further
downgrades, and potentially a default, could be triggered upon one
or more of the following:

-- No or very limited availability under the RBL post the ongoing
semi-annual review (the company expects availability of $560
million going forward).

-- Oil prices remain at $30/bbl-$40/bbl in the coming six-to-12
months, limiting Tullow's access to the financial markets, and its
ability to refinance its $300 million notes due in July 2021, as
well as fund the negative free cash flow S&P expects.

-- Tullow's failure to comply with its financial covenants later
this year, leading to an acceleration of its debt repayments.

-- An announcement of a distressed exchange offer, which
constitutes a default under S&P's definitions.

Upside Scenario:  S&P said, "We could revise our outlook to stable
if Tullow saw a material recovery in oil prices to $50/bbl or more
over the short term and the company addressed current liquidity
pressure. In our view, an agreement to divest some of its assets
with high upfront cash components could be another lever to
alleviate the liquidity situation, and based on the actual proceeds
may even support further rating upside."

  Ratings List

  Aker BP ASA
  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  
                                  To                From
  Aker BP ASA
   Issuer Credit Rating     BBB-/Negative/-- BBB-/Stable/--

  BP PLC
  Ratings Affirmed  
   BP America Production Co.
   BP Corp. North America Inc.
   BP Capital Markets PLC
    Issuer Credit Rating             A-/Positive/A-2

   BP Co. North America Inc.
   BP Products North America Inc.
   Standard Oil Co. Inc.
    Issuer Credit Rating             A-/Positive/--

  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  
                                    To               From
  BP PLC
  Burmah Castrol PLC
  Atlantic Richfield Co.
    Issuer Credit Rating         A-/Stable/A-2    A-/Positive/A-2

  BP Finance PLC
   Issuer Credit Rating          BBB+/Stable/--   BBB+/Positive/--

  Jupiter Insurance Ltd.
   Issuer Credit Rating          A-/Stable/--     A-/Positive/--
   Financial Strength Rating     A-/Stable/--     A-/Positive/--

  Standard Oil Co.
   Issuer Credit Rating          A-/Stable/--     A-/Positive/--

  EnQuest PLC
   Downgraded  
                                     To               From
  EnQuest PLC
    Issuer Credit Rating        CCC+/Negative/--  B-/Positive/--

  Eni SpA
  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  
                                     To                From
  Eni SpA
  Eni International B.V.

   Issuer Credit Rating          A-/Negative/A-2    A-/Stable/A-2

  Eni Lasmo PLC
  Eni U.S. Inc.
   Issuer Credit Rating          A-/Negative/--     A-/Stable/--

  Equinor ASA
  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  
                                      To                From
  Equinor ASA
   Issuer Credit Rating         AA-/Negative/A-1+  AA-/Stable/A-1+

  Equinor US Holdings Inc.
   Issuer Credit Rating         A/Negative/A-1     A/Stable/A-1

  Statoil Forsikring AS
   Issuer Credit Rating         A+/Negative/--     A+/Stable/--
   Financial Strength Rating    A+/Negative/--     A+/Stable/--

  MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas PLC
  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  
                                       To              From
  MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas PLC
   Issuer Credit Rating         BBB-/Stable/--    BBB-/Positive/--

  Neptune Energy Group Midco Ltd
  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  
                                       To              From
  Neptune Energy Group Midco Ltd
   Issuer Credit Rating         BB-/Negative/--   BB-/Positive/--

  Repsol S.A.
  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  
                                       To              From
  Repsol S.A.
  Repsol Oil & Gas Canada Inc.
   Issuer Credit Rating         BBB/Stable/A-2    BBB/Positive/A-2

  Total S.A.
  Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action  
                                       To              From
  Total S.A.
  Total Holdings SAS
   Issuer Credit Rating         A+/Negative/A-1   A+/Positive/A-1

  Omnium Reinsurance Co. SA
  Pan Insurance DAC
   Issuer Credit Rating         A+/Negative/--    A+/Positive/--
    Financial Strength Rating   A+/Negative/--    A+/Positive/--

  Tullow Oil
  Downgraded  
                                        To            From
  Tullow Oil
   Issuer Credit Rating         CCC+/Negative/--   B/Negative/--


OCADO GROUP: Moody's Cuts CFR to B2, Outlook Revised to Stable
--------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded to B2 from Ba3 the
long-term corporate family rating and to B2-PD from Ba3-PD
probability of default rating of UK online grocery retailer and
technology-driven software and robotics platform business Ocado
Group plc. Concurrently, the rating agency has upgraded to Ba2 from
Ba3 the rating of Ocado's GBP225 million outstanding backed senior
secured notes due 2024. The outlook has been revised to stable from
rating under review and the rating action concludes the review
process initiated by Moody's on December 3, 2019.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The downgrade of Ocado's CFR and PDR reflects (a) the doubling of
Ocado's total gross debt after the GBP600 million convertible bonds
were issued in December; (b) credit metrics which have weakened due
to the combination of the higher debt with lower profitability (the
latter in part due to the impact of accounting changes); (c)
ongoing execution risks with respect to the various commitments to
develop online delivery solutions for international partners and to
meet continued growth in demand in the UK; and (d) very significant
capital spending in respect of those commitments, which will result
in the company's high cash balances being depleted in the next two
to three years absent a return to the capital markets.

More positively the ratings recognise several positive developments
since the original rating assignment in 2017 including (a)
contractual agreements to develop online delivery solutions for
seven international grocers, which includes a number of fulfilment
centres going live this year; (b) a material increase in the
company's equity market capitalisation and continuing access to the
equity and debt capital markets last evidenced with the convertible
bond issuance; and (c) the establishment in early 2019 of a retail
joint venture with Marks & Spencer p.l.c. (Baa3 negative) which
resulted in a significant cash receipt for Ocado and also secured a
new branded grocery supplier ahead of the expiry of the contract
with Waitrose later this year. These factors in combination mean
that Moody's consider that Ocado's liquidity will remain good
during this year and next notwithstanding its major capital
spending plans.

Environmental and social considerations do not have a meaningful
impact on Moody's assessment of Ocado's current credit quality.
However, like all consumer facing businesses the company is exposed
to reputational damage in the event its actions harmed customers,
or were perceived to harm them. In the short to medium term,
subject to its ongoing ability to cope with the unprecedented
demand levels, Ocado will be a beneficiary of the impact of
Covid-19 as consumers strive to ensure they have sufficient
supplies. The crisis has also underpinned the efficiencies
inherently embedded in the centralised fulfilment centre model
compared with the store-picking model. The rating agency takes
Ocado's governance practices into account in its assessment of the
company's credit quality, including financial policies. Ocado has
primarily used equity to fund its heavy capital spending
commitments, and has to date demonstrated a prudent approach to
liquidity management.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

The Ba2 rated GBP225 million senior secured notes (SSNs) due 2024
rank pari passu with the company's GBP100 million revolving credit
facility which expires in 2022. The three-notch uplift in the
ranking of the SSNs relative to the CFR reflects the subordination
cushion provided by the GBP600 million unsecured convertible bonds
due 2025 and the fact that these funds will be used to further
develop the Solutions business, a credit positive for the SSNs.
Furthermore, Moody's expects the company's cash balances -- which
in December 2019 exceeded GBP1.3 billion pro-forma for the proceeds
of the convertible bond issue -- to remain in excess of the
outstanding SSN balance beyond the end of 2021.

RATIONALE FOR STABLE OUTLOOK

The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectations that the company
will over the next 12-18 months maintain an at least adequate
liquidity profile. In addition, the rating agency expects the
company to retain full access to the capital markets to support its
ongoing heavy capital spending. As such, an inability to access
additional funds at an appropriate time would have negative rating
implications.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATINGS UP/DOWN

In light of the expected continuing weak credit metrics and need
for ongoing access to additional funds to support the company's
future growth ambitions an upgrade is unlikely in the next two
years at least. Beyond that time, strong profit growth, sustained
positive free cash flow and a material deleveraging from current
levels would be prerequisites for positive rating pressure.

Conversely, a downgrade would be appropriate in the event of a
deterioration in the company's liquidity profile, most likely due
to an inability to access the capital markets at an appropriate
time. Moreover, a downgrade would be considered in the event of
material execution issues either with respect to Ocado's own retail
operations or in the development and deployment of online retail
solutions for third-party grocers.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Retail Industry
published in May 2018.

COMPANY PROFILE

Established in 2000, Ocado is the UK's only scale pure-play grocery
e-tailer and, with annual Retail revenue of GBP1.6 billion in 2019,
it has a 1.5% share of the overall UK grocery market, according to
Kantar Worldpanel. Ocado has been listed on the London Stock
Exchange since 2010 and currently has a market capitalisation of
over GBP8.5 billion.

In addition to its own online grocery operations, the company
provides services to other retailers via the Solutions division. WM
Morrison Supermarkets plc (Baa2 stable) is the longest-standing
Solutions customer, with Ocado operating the morrisons.com website
and fulfilling the orders placed on it. Since 2017, Ocado has
announced deals to provide solutions to several international
retailers, including France's Casino Guichard-Perrachon SA (B2
negative), Sobeys Inc. of Canada and The Kroger Co. (Baa1 stable),
the largest traditional supermarket chain in the US.

PLAYTECH PLC: Moody's Cuts CFR to Ba3 & Alters Outlook to Neg.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Playtech Plc's corporate
family rating to Ba3 from Ba2 and the probability of default rating
to Ba3-PD from Ba2-PD. Concurrently, Moody's has also downgraded
the ratings on the EUR530 million backed senior secured notes due
2023 and EUR350 million backed senior secured notes due 2026 to Ba3
from Ba2. The outlook has been changed to negative from stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The gaming sector
has been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the
shock given its sensitivity to retail gaming shop closures and the
cancellation of sports events. More specifically, the weaknesses in
Playtech's credit profile, including its exposure to Italy, Asia
and sporting events have left it vulnerable to revenue losses in
these unprecedented operating conditions and the company remains
vulnerable to the outbreak for as long as the current lockdowns and
cancellations continue. Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as
a social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial
implications for public health and safety. The action reflects the
impact on Playtech of the breadth and severity of the shock, and
the broad deterioration in credit quality it has triggered.

Moody's-adjusted gross leverage increased to 3.1x in 2019 from 2.5x
in 2018, and Moody's expects a further increase towards 4x (above
the previous 3.5x trigger for downward ratings pressure) in 2020
under a base case scenario that assumes market recovery in Q3.
Including full drawdown of the company's RCF, Moody's-adjusted
gross leverage for 2020 is expected to exceed 5x.

Playtech's Ba3 rating also reflects (1) Playtech's high degree of
customer concentration (its 10 largest customers account for 50% of
its B2B gambling) and a degree of exposure to unregulated markets;
(2) the highly competitive operating environment, where new
companies or technologies as well as consolidation and insourcing
trends represent a threat to Playtech's business model. This is
particularly evident in the company's Asia segment which has seen a
severe decline in revenues over the past year; (3) the volatility
of performance in the financial trading division which depends on
market conditions; and (4) the ongoing threat of more stringent
regulatory requirements in both gambling and financial trading,
although this risk will likely be lower in the near future.

Playtech's rating benefits from (1) its position as an established
global technological operator in the online gaming software market;
(2) its medium-term contracts and entrenched relationships,
particularly with the largest customers in B2B gambling; and (3)
the positive fundamentals underpinning the online gambling sector,
including low fixed costs.

Playtech is publicly listed on the London Stock Exchange and has a
good corporate governance track record. The company has also
demonstrated adherence to a prudent financial policy over the last
few years, which Moody's regards as commensurate with the company's
rating level.

LIQUIDITY

Moody's considers Playtech's liquidity position to be adequate for
its near term requirements which include capex and R&D of around
EUR150 million and low potential cash burn as a result of the
coronavirus pandemic. Distributions to shareholders of around EUR65
million have been suspended. Liquidity is supported by (1)
available cash on balance sheet of more than EUR600 million,
including its EUR317 million RCF which is fully drawn to preserve
liquidity in the current environment; (2) EUR50 million expected in
Q2 2020 for the contracted sale of Snaitech land in Italy, and (3)
no significant debt maturities until 2023.

Playtech has a 3x net debt / Adjusted EBITDA covenant and a 4x
Adjusted EBITDA / interest cover covenant in its revolving credit
facility which will be tested in June and December 2020. Moody's
expects the company to maintain headroom for these testing dates,
although this will tighten as the year progresses.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

Using Moody's Loss Given Default (LGD) methodology, the Ba3-PD PDR
rating is aligned to the Ba3 CFR. This is based on a 50% recovery
rate, as is typical for transactions including both bonds and bank
debt. Playtech's Ba3 rating of the EUR530 million and EUR350
million SSNs is also in line with the CFR.

Both the notes and the RCF rank pari passu and are secured mainly
against share pledges of certain companies of the group. The RCF is
guaranteed by material subsidiaries representing at least 75% of
consolidated EBITDA and 55% of gross assets.

RATIONALE FOR THE NEGATIVE OUTLOOK

The negative outlook assumes that Playtech will experience
continued underperformance from the coronavirus outbreak, but that
the company will be able to partially offset these adversities and
minimize cash burn due to low fixed costs. The outlook could be
stabilized if there is enough clarity regarding the coronavirus
situation to reliably establish that the company's credit metrics
are expected to stay within the established key indicators
commensurate for the Ba3 rating.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN

Positive pressure on the ratings is unlikely in the near term due
to the high uncertainty of the market conditions. However, it could
develop if market conditions stabilize and Playtech can achieve 1)
sustainable Debt/EBITDA below 3.5x; and 2) FCF/Debt above 5%, while
maintaining good liquidity.

Conversely, negative pressure on the ratings could arise if (1) the
Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA exceeds 5x on a sustained basis; (2)
its free cash generation and liquidity profile weaken; or (3) its
profitability further deteriorates owing to the coronavirus
pandemic, or competitive, regulatory and fiscal pressure. An
aggressive financial policy including large-scale debt-funded
acquisitions which significantly increase leverage would be likely
to cause negative rating pressure.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Business and
Consumer Service Industry published in October 2016.

Headquartered in the Isle of Man, Playtech is a leading technology
company in the gambling and financial trading industries and the
world largest online gambling software and services supplier,
employing over 5,800 people across 17 offices, of which 1,800 are
developers. Playtech was founded by Israeli entrepreneur Teddy Sagi
in 1999 and has grown through a combination of organic growth and
acquisitions. It is currently listed on the London Stock Exchange
with a market capitalization of approximately GBP500 million as of
25 March 2020. For the financial year 2019, the group, generated
EUR1,508 million of revenue and EUR383 million of company adjusted
EBITDA.

SQUARE CHAPEL: Cash Flow Difficulties Prompt Administration
-----------------------------------------------------------
Ian Hirst at Halifax Courier reports that Patrick Lannagan and
Conrad Pearson of Mazars LLP have been appointed Joint
Administrators of The Square Chapel Trust ("the Trust"), a
registered charity, and its subsidiary Square Trading Ltd as of
March 19, 2020.

According to Halifax Courier, Mr. Lannagan said: "The Trust has
suffered a funding shortfall in the current financial year which
has caused significant cash flow difficulties, leaving the Trust
and its subsidiary with no option but to enter administration.

"Subsequent to the decision to enter Administration the facilities
closed to the public from March 17 for the foreseeable future in
response to the Government's latest advice on COVID-19."

The Trust operates as a centre for the arts, providing film,
theatre, live music, comedy, family shows, workshops from the grade
II listed building and new extension in the heart of Halifax
attracting almost 100,000 people per year.  The subsidiary operates
the café/bar located in the new extension.



SYNTHOMER PLC: S&P Assigns BB Issuer Credit Rating, Outlook Stable
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'BB' issuer credit rating to
Synthomer plc.

Synthomer plc expects to close the acquisition of Omnova Solutions
Inc. (Omnova) during first-quarter 2020.

The acquisition will increase Synthomer's U.S. presence and provide
additional diversification to the business, which is fairly
balanced between specialty chemicals and high-end commodities and
intermediates, supporting resilient operating performance despite
volatile raw materials prices and some exposure to cyclical end
markets.

S&P views Synthomer's business post acquisition as fairly
diversified across different chemicals and well balanced
geographically.  Synthomer and Omnova share some overlapping
product types, raw materials, and end markets but have different
technologies and geographic breakdowns. Omnova is a niche provider
of performance-enhancing chemicals with GBP576 million of revenue
in 2019. The company markets emulsion polymers and specialty
chemicals for various commercial, industrial, and residential uses.
The acquisition will help Synthomer complement its offering in
specialty chemicals and diversify its product portfolio in adjacent
chemicals and certain end markets. Omnova has 13 plants located
principally throughout the U.S., Western Europe, and China. About
58% of its 2019 revenue came from North America, against 5% for
Synthomer's existing footprint. The acquisition is expected to
increase Synthomer's presence in North America and Asia and deliver
about GBP23 million of synergies by 2022, according to the company.
It has relatively modest execution risk, with all regulatory
approvals anticipated for the end of first-quarter 2020. The
company's scope will also increase after integrating Omnova, with
pro forma revenue of GBP2 billion anticipated in 2020.

Demand for Synthomer's products is supported by its leading market
shares, research and development (R&D) capabilities, and favorable
market dynamics.  Synthomer is one of the world's top suppliers of
water-based polymers, with a number of products holding leading
market shares, especially in performance elastomers, which
comprises nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) and styrene butadiene
rubber (SBR) latex products. The company is the leading producer of
SBR in Europe and the second largest producer of NBR globally, on
both a volume and revenue basis. It is also the leading producer of
acrylic and vinylic dispersions in Europe and the Middle East. The
company's diversified portfolio of SBR, NBR, dispersions, and
specialties products post acquisition will allow it to serve a wide
range of end markets, such as construction and coatings (31% of
2019 pro forma revenue), health and protection (18%), and textile
and adhesives (11%), with specialties (19%) and functional polymers
serving the paper (9%) and oil and gas (3%) sectors. Demand for its
products is underpinned by global trends, such as ageing
populations and increase awareness of hygiene and health, a rising
middle class and the need for sustainable water-based solutions or
environmentally friendly polymers to replace certain solvents. In
particular, NBR products have seen demand growth of 8%-10% over the
past 10 years and we expect 3%-5% growth per year, spurred by an
increase in demand for disposable gloves as well as a shift toward
NBR latex as an alternative to natural rubber and PVC. We recognize
that about 20% of 2019 sales are generated from products introduced
over the past five years, with a degree of innovation capability
anticipated to support growth in health care, water-based polymers,
and performance.

S&P said, "We forecast resilient operating performance in 2020,
despite volatile raw materials prices and some exposure to cyclical
end markets.   Demand for Synthomer and Omnova's products has been
generally correlated to GDP growth, both regionally and globally.
Although the level of demand for each product varies by end market,
local dynamics, and specific factors (as shown with NBR), we think
certain overarching global trends will have an effect across all
end markets. In particular, soft GDP growth could pose significant
risks and increased pressure on revenue and earnings in 2020. There
continues to be high uncertainty about COVID-19's rate of spread
and peak. In our base case, we expect a global GDP reduction of 0.5
percentage points (ppt) this year, reducing China's economic growth
by 0.9 ppt, the eurozone's by 0.5 ppt, and the U.S.'s by 0.3 ppt.
We expect generally weaker demand growth for commodities in 2020,
given softer economic growth and rising global supply. Downside
risks to our baseline are contingent on whether the epidemic
persists beyond second-quarter 2020. Raw material prices
represented about 70% of Synthomer's total cost base in 2019.
Styrene, butadiene, acrylonitrile, and methyl methacrylate prices
have historically been volatile, and are partially dependent on
crude oil prices. Following the breakdown of the OPEC meetings in
early March 2020, S&P Global Ratings lowered all of its West Texas
Intermediate and Brent heavy crude oil price assumptions as well as
its Henry Hub natural gas price assumption for 2020-2022 and
beyond. We acknowledge that the volatility of raw material prices
for Synthomer is spurred by oil price dynamics, with lower oil
prices generally leading to lower costs. However, lower oil prices
could affect demand for dispersions products used by the oil and
gas sector in North America and affect demand in the wider
petrochemical industry."

Synthomer has a track record of maintaining a resilient gross
margin over the cost of raw materials, outlining a good
cost-pass-through ability, with typically a one-month time lag.  
Substantially, all of Synthomer's customer agreements have no
pricing commitment beyond one month, with approximately 40% of
agreements being formulaic and the remainder generally negotiable
on a monthly basis. The stability of the business is reinforced by
certain long-term customer relationships, and about 4,800 customers
spread globally across geographies and end markets. The company's
forecast adjusted EBITDA margin of about 12% over 2020-2021 is
consistent with average profitability for the chemical sector. In
S&P's view, this remains a constraining factor, given the pro forma
exposure to high-end commodity and differentiated intermediates
chemicals, rather than pure specialty chemicals products. In
comparison, SPCM, Clariant, or highly integrated commodity
chemicals producers such as Ineos Styrolution generate relatively
higher margin levels.

S&P said, "In line with Synthomer's stated financial policy, we
anticipate deleveraging over the coming one-to-two years as a
result of positive FOCF generation.  We forecast S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted leverage of about 3.5x in 2020, reducing to about
3.1x in 2021. We also anticipate positive FOCF generation of GBP85
million-GBP95 million per year in 2020 and 2021. Although outside
our two year forecast period, we see the prospect for further
deleveraging beyond 2021, given modest underlying maintenance
capital expenditure (capex) needs. We consider that expansionary
capex requirements will decrease as Synthomer completes its current
round of major investment programs. We note the Omnova acquisition
was financed within Synthomer's conservative financial policy, with
a rights issue executed to reduce leverage below its stated upper
limit of 2.5x-3.0x. Additionally, the company forecasts it will
deleverage to below 2.0x within two years. On an S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted basis, we include operating leases of GBP64
million and pension adjustments of GBP140 million (net of tax) for
Synthomer and Omnova, which adds a total of GBP204 million to our
adjusted debt in 2020, or about 0.9x 2020 adjusted EBITDA. We
consider less than GBP10 million as restricted cash, which we do
not deduct from gross debt.

"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Synthomer will
demonstrate moderate growth, resilient profitability, and positive
FOCF in the coming years. This is spurred by its favorable market
positions and recent capacity investments, along with the Omnova
acquisition upon integration. We expect pro forma adjusted EBITDA
of GBP235 million in 2020, leading to adjusted debt to EBITDA of
about 3.5x in 2020. We view adjusted debt to EBITDA of 3.0x-4.0x as
commensurate with the rating."

Pressure on the rating would arise from earnings volatility and
lower-than-expected FOCF, stemming from butadiene or styrene price
swings, a deterioration in market conditions, the loss of market
share, or difficulties in integrating Omnova. S&P could take a
negative rating action if adjusted debt to EBITDA was to exceed
4.0x. This could also arise in the case of large debt-funded
acquisitions or material deviations in Synthomer's financial
policy.

Rating upside may arise from higher-than-anticipated EBITDA and
FOCF growth, such that the company maintained adjusted debt to
EBITDA below 3.0x on a sustained basis. Rating upside could also
occur following a track record of resilient operating performance.
Management's commitment to a more conservative financial policy
would be an important consideration.


TULLOW OIL: Moody's Cuts CFR to B3, On Review for Further Downgrade
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service downgraded Tullow Oil's corporate family
rating to B3 from B2 and probability of default rating to B3-PD
from B2-PD, as well as the ratings on Tullow's $650 million
guaranteed senior unsecured notes due April 2022 and $800 million
guaranteed senior unsecured notes due March 2025 to Caa2 from Caa1.
Concurrently, Moody's placed Tullow's ratings on review for further
downgrade. The previous outlook on the company was negative.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rating action reflects Moody's expectation that despite the
comprehensive range of actions taken by Tullow management, an
extended period of low commodity prices is likely to leave the
group free cash flow negative. In the absence of any material asset
disposal, Moody's adjusted gross leverage is likely to rise to
between 5 and 6x during 2020.

In addition, while Tullow believes that even under a severe
downside scenario where it both fails to meet its production
forecast and assuming a flat $30/barrel (bbl) oil price it has
sufficient liquidity for the next 12 months, Moody's views Tullow's
liquidity as weak. In its recent 2019 full year results
announcement, Tullow warned that using both the base oil price
assumptions of $38/bbl for 2020 and $43/bbl for 2021, and a
downside sensitivity run at $30/bbl for both 2020 and 2021, its
leverage is forecast to be marginally above the RBL gearing
covenant when calculated at December 31, 2020, if planned portfolio
management proceeds are not realised.

The six-monthly calculation of the borrowing base amount under the
RBL is due to be finalised at the end of March 2020. The
significant downside protection and certainty of future cash flows
afforded by the group's hedge portfolio should help underpin the
level of availability under its RBL facility. In line with its
commodity hedging policy, 60% of 2020 sales revenue is hedged with
a floor of $57/bbl and 40% of 2021 sales revenue is hedged with a
floor of $53/bbl.

However, given the unprecedented market conditions currently
prevailing in the oil markets, the risk has increased that the
group may not be able to sufficiently progress any planned
portfolio management activities, as a result of which its lenders
may not approve the semi-annual RBL redetermination liquidity
assessments or a potential covenant amendment if subsequently
required. Therefore, Tullow pointed out that there is a material
uncertainty that may cast significant doubt on its ability to
operate as a going concern.

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The E&P sector has
been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the shock
given its sensitivity to demand and oil prices.

Moody's regards the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its
ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health
and safety. The action reflects the impact on Tullow of the breadth
and severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit
quality it has triggered.

However, in the next couple of years, Tullow's cash flow generation
should get some protection from its commodity hedging book while
the range of actions recently taken by management will help
conserve cash. These include: 1) cuts in capital and exploration
expenditure of 30% and 45% to $350 million and $75 million
respectively compared to 2019; 2) a group-wide restructuring
targeting a 35% reduction in headcount and around $200 million of
G&A cash cost savings over the period 2020-2022; and 3) the
suspension of the company's dividend.

In addition, Moody's acknowledges that should Tullow make
substantial progress with the execution of its portfolio management
initiatives, which aim to raise in excess of $1 billion of
proceeds, this would allow the group to achieve some significant
deleveraging.

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW

The review will focus on (i) the outcome to the ongoing RBL
redetermination to be completed by the end of March 2020 to help
preserve the group's availability under the facility taking into
account a projected drawn amount of around $1.3 billion; and (ii)
the potential operational disruptions and loss of production that
may result from the coronavirus outbreak.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

Tullow has undergone some significant changes in senior management
following the resignation of its CEO and exploration director,
which was prompted by the significant downward revision of the
group's forward-looking production guidance in December 2019 amid
persistent production performance issues. The appointment of a new
CEO has yet to be finalised, which gives rise to some uncertainty
as to the group's future strategy.

STRUCTURAL CONSIDERATIONS

The Caa2 rating on the $650 million due 2022 and $800 million due
2025 senior unsecured notes is two notches below the B3 CFR. This
reflects the substantial amount of secured liabilities ranking
ahead of the senior notes within the capital structure and the weak
positioning of the B3 CFR. The notes are subordinated in right of
payment to all existing and future senior obligations of the
respective guarantors, including their obligations under the RBL
facility. Should the positioning of Tullow's CFR stabilise at the
B3 level, the two-notch rating differential could be reassessed.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP

A rating upgrade would require (i) confirmation that the production
guidance reset by management in December 2019 can be sustained in
the medium term; (ii) material progress on the divestment programme
allowing significant deleveraging and resulting in Moody's-adjusted
total debt to EBITDA falling below 4.0x and (ii) restoration of a
robust liquidity profile.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN

Conversely, the ratings could be downgraded should the liquidity
position of the group deteriorate post RBL redetermination and/or
in the absence of any disposals. The rating would also come under
pressure should the group generate sustained negative FCF resulting
in Moody's-adjusted total debt to EBITDA failing to fall back below
5.0x for an extended period of time.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Independent
Exploration and Production Industry published in May 2017.

CORPORATE PROFILE

Headquartered in London (UK), Tullow Oil plc is an independent
exploration and production oil and gas company, with its main
operated and non-operated production assets located in West Africa
(Ghana, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Cote d'Ivoire) as well as
contingent resources in Uganda and Kenya. The company holds 87
licences across 17 countries. In 2019, the company reported an
average production (on a working interest basis) of approximately
86.8 thousand barrels of oil equivalent (including
production-equivalent insurance payments) and adjusted EBITDAX of
around $1.4 billion. As of December 2019, the group's 2P (proved
plus probable) reserves amounted to 243 million barrels of oil
equivalent. Tullow is listed on the London, Irish and Ghana Stock
Exchanges.



===============
X X X X X X X X
===============

[*] Moody's Reviews Ratings on 7 Auto Manufacturers for Downgrade
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has placed the ratings of 7 European
Automotive manufacturers on review for downgrade. This includes the
following issuers: Daimler AG (Daimler), Jaguar Land Rover
Automotive Plc (JLR), Peugeot S.A. (PSA), Renault S.A. (Renault),
Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft (VW), Volvo Car AB (Volvo Car),
McLaren Holdings Limited (McLaren).

Moody's placed the ratings of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (FCA)
on review with direction uncertain.

Concurrently, Moody's downgraded the long-term issuer rating of
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft (BMW) to A2 from A1.
The ratings are on review for further downgrade.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The auto sector
(and issuers within other sectors that relay on the auto sector)
has been one of the sectors most significantly affected by the
shock given its sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment. More
specifically, the weaknesses in the companies' credit profiles,
including their exposure to final consumer demand for light
vehicles have left them vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in
these unprecedented operating conditions and the companies remain
vulnerable to the outbreak continuing to spread. Moody's regards
the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under its ESG framework,
given the substantial implications for public health and safety.
The action reflects the impact on the companies of the breadth and
severity of the shock, and the broad deterioration in credit
quality it has triggered.

The review with uncertain direction for FCA balances on the one
hand the challenges the entire auto industry is facing during the
current crisis and which is driving the review for downgrade of the
other companies included in this press release. On the other hand,
Moody's still believes that the proposed merger with PSA will
create a larger, more diversified company and could hence result in
a higher rating of the combined entity compared to the stand alone
rating of FCA today.

BMW's downgrade today was driven by its already weakly positioning
in the A1 ratings category ahead of the current market stress with
financial metrics already below its expectation for an A1 rating.

Notably, based on BMW's reported financials 2019 Moody's estimates
that the Moody's adjusted EBITA margin was approximately 5.8%, and
Moody's adjusted Free Cash Flow around EUR0.6 billion compared with
and EBITA margin of 6.6%, and a Moody's adjusted Free Cash Flow of
EUR-0.5 billion in 2018. Thus both metrics remain well below what
Moody's would consider commensurate for the A1 rating.

Given that the auto sector has been one of the sectors most
significantly affected by the shock as described above BMW's A2 and
Prime-1 ratings are on review for downgrade.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP/DOWN.

Given the current market situation, Moody's does not anticipate any
short term positive rating pressure. A stabilization of the market
situation leading to a recovery in metrics to pre-outbreak levels
could lead to positive rating pressure. More specifically adjusted
Debt/EBITDA would have to drop back sustainably below 1x with an
EBITA margin sustainably above 8%.

Further negative pressure would build if BMW fails to return to
meaningful operating profit generation in the second half of 2020.
A prolonged and deeper slump in demand than currently anticipated
leading to higher demand in liquidity, a more balance sheet
deterioration and a longer path to restoring credit metrics in line
with an A2 credit rating could also lead to further negative
pressure on the rating.

In its review for downgrade, Moody's considers that the demand for
new vehicles will be reduced meaningfully over the coming months,
especially in the EMEA and North American markets. This is likely
to extend through the early summer at least, with a reasonable
recovery from the low points commencing at that point. Moody's
current assumptions are that global demand will shrink by about 14%
for all of 2020, and could be down in the range of 30% for the
second quarter. Accelerating incidence of the coronavirus across
the US and EMEA could lead to even more extended production
shutdowns and a much delayed recovery on unit sales. Production
facilities in Europe and North America are mostly closed, as are
the factories for the extended supply chain. This should enable
field inventories of unsold vehicles to be somewhat restrained, but
also leads to potential for meaningful disruption even once new
vehicle production starts back up unless the OEMs and the extended
supply chain cooperate carefully. Even without production for a
couple months, there will be an overhang of inventory which could
lead to considerable manufacturer incentives before the new model
year shipments. For now, Moody's assumes a reasonable pace of
recovery of demand as the third quarter develops, however the risk
to the downside is considerable and further downside scenarios
around the severity and duration of the pandemic are uncertain.

The review for downgrade for all affected issuers will consider (i)
the outbreak's impact on the manufacturing operations of the
European automotive manufacturers listed herein, as these issuers
largely have global operations. Most automotive manufacturers have
already temporarily closed facilities in order to ensure the safety
of their employees. The review will assess the impact from facility
closures and global automotive production declines these issuers
are experiencing and will experience in the coming quarters. The
review will also consider (ii) the lingering impact of diminished
consumer demand resulting from consumer concerns over contracting
coronavirus, and regional government policies restricting consumer
movement over coming quarters; (iii) the companie's liquidity
profiles and the resilience in its various stress scenarios
including the inability to refinance debt maturities in the capital
markets; (iv) the impact of governmental action to support
corporates and consumers in the companies' main markets, as well as
(v) the impact of potential self-help measures of the individual
issuers.

Moody's expects to solve the review process within the next three
months.

In addition to the disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus,
Moody's also recognizes a number of longer-term challenges related
to Environmental, Social and Governance factors and megatrends in
the automotive industry, such as (1) increasing environmental
standards, stricter emissions regulation and electrification, (2)
autonomous driving and connectivity, (3) increasing vehicle safety
regulations as well as (4) new market entrants. Moody's expects
automakers to require sizeable investments over the coming years to
weather these challenges. These investments into R&D and capex will
make it harder for these companies to support a turnaround in
profit and cash flow generation as it believes they are required to
protect their business in the long-term. While Moody's believes its
roadmap to become compliant with stricter emissions regulation in
Europe is largely achievable, compliance costs have materially
increased and success of the roadmap hinges to some degree on
consumer acceptance and pricing policies of peers that are not in
the control of automakers.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS:

Issuer: Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft

Downgrades and Placed On Review for further Downgrade:

LT Issuer Rating, Downgraded to A2 from A1

Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)A2 from
(P)A1

On Review for Downgrade:

Commercial Paper , currently P-1

Other Short Term, currently (P)P-1

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: BMW Australia Finance Ltd.

Downgrades and Placed On Review for further Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to
(P)A2 from (P)A1

On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Other Short Term, currently (P)P-1

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: BMW Canada Inc.

Downgrades and Placed On Review for further Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to A2
from A1

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: BMW Finance N.V.

Downgrades and Placed On Review for further Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to
(P)A2 from (P)A1

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to A2
from A1

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to A3
from A2

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Commercial Paper, currently P-1

BACKED Other Short Term, currently (P)P-1

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: BMW International Investment B.V.

Downgrades and Placed On Review for further Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to
(P)A2 from (P)A1

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to A2
from A1

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Commercial Paper, currently P-1

BACKED Other Short Term, currently (P)P-1

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: BMW Japan Finance Corp.

Downgrades and Placed On Review for further Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to
(P)A2 from (P)A1

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Other Short Term, currently (P)P-1

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: BMW US Capital, LLC

Downgrades and Placed On Review for further Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to
(P)A2 from (P)A1

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to A2
from A1

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Commercial Paper, currently P-1

BACKED Other Short Term, currently (P)P-1

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Daimler AG

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

LT Issuer Rating, currently A3

Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)A3

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Daimler Canada Finance Inc.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)A3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Daimler Finance North America LLC

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)A3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Shelf, currently (P)A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Daimler International Finance B.V.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)A3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: DaimlerChrysler Company LLC

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Mercedes-Benz Australia/Pacific Pty. Ltd

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)A3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Mercedes-Benz Finance Co., Ltd.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)A3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Mercedes-Benz Japan Co., Ltd.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Mercedes-Benz South Africa Limited

Affirmations:

NSR BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Affirmed
Aaa.za

NSR BACKED Other Short Term, Affirmed P-1.za

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

LT Issuer Rating, currently A3

Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Volkswagen Group of America Finance, LLC

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Volkswagen International Finance N.V.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Junior Subordinate Regular Bond/Debenture, currently Baa2

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)A3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: VW Credit Canada, Inc.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)A3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: VW Credit, Inc.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)A3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: GIE PSA Tresorerie

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

Commercial Paper, currently P-3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently Baa3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Peugeot S.A.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

LT Issuer Rating, currently Baa3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently
(P)Baa3

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently Baa3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Volvo Car AB

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

LT Corporate Family Rating, currently Ba1

Probability of Default Rating, currently Ba1-PD

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)Ba1

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently Ba1

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Renault S.A.

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

LT Corporate Family Rating, currently Ba1

Probability of Default Rating, currently Ba1-PD

Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)Ba1

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently Ba1

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V.

Placed On Review Direction Uncertain:

LT Corporate Family Rating, currently Ba1

Probability of Default Rating, currently Ba1-PD

Senior Unsecured Shelf, currently (P)Ba2

Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)Ba2

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently Ba2

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Positive

Issuer: Fiat Chrysler Finance Europe SA

Placed On Review Direction Uncertain:

BACKED Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, currently (P)Ba2

BACKED Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently Ba2

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Positive

Issuer: Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

LT Corporate Family Rating, currently B1

Probability of Default Rating, currently B1-PD

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently B1

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: McLaren Finance PLC

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

BACKED Senior Secured Regular Bond/Debenture, currently B3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

Issuer: McLaren Holdings Limited

Placed On Review for Downgrade:

LT Corporate Family Rating, currently B3

Probability of Default Rating, currently B3-PD

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Automobile
Manufacturer Industry published in June 2017.


                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills,
Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA.
Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.

Copyright 2020.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2754.

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