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       T R O U B L E D   C O M P A N Y   R E P O R T E R

                          E U R O P E

          Friday, March 20, 2020, Vol. 21, No. 58

                           Headlines



C R O A T I A

ULJANIK: Gets 1-Year Extension of Concession Fee Payment Deadline


F R A N C E

CASSINI SAS: Fitch Alters Outlook on 'B' LT IDR to Negative


G E R M A N Y

DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA: Moody's Cuts Senior Unsecured Ratings to Ba1


G R E E C E

ELLAKTOR SA: S&P Lowers ICR to 'B-' on Slower Leverage Reduction


I R E L A N D

ALLIED IRISH: Fitch Cuts Subordinated LT Debt to 'BB+'
TURNER'S PRINTING: Increasing Competition Prompts Liquidation


K A Z A K H S T A N

FREEDOM FINANCE: S&P Assigns 'B' ICR, Outlook Stable


N E T H E R L A N D S

GROSVENOR PLACE 2015-1: Fitch Affirms B- Class E-RR Notes Rating


R U S S I A

KAZANORGSINTEZ PAO: Fitch Affirms LT IDR at 'B+', Outlook Stable
TURON BANK: S&P Affirms B/B Issuer Credit Ratings, Outlook Stable


S W I T Z E R L A N D

DUFRY: S&P Downgrades Sr. Unsec. Debt Rating to BB-, On Watch Neg.


U N I T E D   K I N G D O M

CINEWORLD GROUP: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'B' on Closure of Cinemas
CLARION EVENTS: S&P Places 'B-' Long-Term ICR on Watch Negative
DONCASTERS GROUP: Moody's Places Caa3 CFR on Review for Upgrade
DOWSON 2020-1: S&P Assigns Prelim BB- (sf) Rating on Class D Notes
OSPREY ACQUISITIONS: Fitch Cuts LT IDR to BB-, Outlook Negative

PIER 64: Goes Into Liquidation, 21 Jobs Affected
PROJECT MANAGEMENT: Goes Into Liquidation, Halts Trading
THOMAS COOK: Atol Scheme to Pay GBP481MM to Refund Customers
TRITON UK: Moody's Assigns Caa1 CFR, Outlook Stable


X X X X X X X X

[*] BOOK REVIEW: Hospitals, Health and People

                           - - - - -


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C R O A T I A
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ULJANIK: Gets 1-Year Extension of Concession Fee Payment Deadline
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Iskra Pavlova at SeeNews reports that Croatia's government said it
has granted a one-year extension to the deadline for payment of
annual concession fee by local Uljanik shipyard, which is a subject
of bankruptcy proceedings.

According to SeeNews, the government has authorized transport
minister Oleg Butkovic to sign an annex to its concession contract
with Uljanik that will allow to delay the payment of concession fee
due in 2020 for a period of 12 months, with no interest to be
charged, the cabinet said in a statement on March 12 following its
regular meeting.

The amount of the concession fee was not provided, SeeNews notes.

In January 2011, Uljanik signed a 30-year concession deal with the
Croatian government for the use of 326,471 sq m of land and 340,400
sq m of sea area for the purpose of its operations, SeeNews relays,
citing data published on the website of the company.

                      About Uljanik Group

Uljanik Group is a shipbuilding company and shipyard in Pula,
Croatia.  It comprises of Uljanik Shipyard and 3.Maj.  It employed
about 1,000 people at May 2019.

On May 13, 2019, the commercial court in Pazin launched bankruptcy
proceedings against the Uljanik Group.  Marija Ruzic is named as
bankruptcy trustee.

The Company's accounts have been frozen for more than 200 days by
the time if filed for bankruptcy. Uljanik encountered financial
troubles in the past years due to a global crisis in the
shipbuilding sector.  The Croatian government also declined to
support a restructuring of the Company in early 2019.




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F R A N C E
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CASSINI SAS: Fitch Alters Outlook on 'B' LT IDR to Negative
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Fitch Ratings has revised Cassini SAS's (Comexposium) Outlook to
Negative from Stable; while affirming the company's Long-Term
Issuer Default Rating at 'B'. Its senior secured instrument rating
has been affirmed at 'B+' with a Recovery Rating 'RR3'indicating
recoveries of 51% to 70%.

The Outlook revision reflects the risk of deterioration in
Cassini's credit profile from business disruption due to the
coronavirus outbreak over the following months from show
cancellations, either in compliance with government regulations to
contain the outbreak, or due to limited venue availability to
accommodate rescheduling of shows to later in the year.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Coronavirus Uncertainty: Fitch has analysed several scenarios to
assess Cassini's rating headroom to absorb downside risks from the
impact of the coronavirus in 2020 and expected lower profitability
in 2021 from potential rebates or commercial actions to maintain
client relationships. The coronavirus has the potential to lead to
a significant erosion of credit quality if large-scale
cancellations continue in 4Q, which Fitch does not expect, and
severely stretch the company's cash resources.

Capacity for Temporary Shock: In its view, Cassini is proactively
managing its portfolio of shows to minimise the impact on credit
metrics and protect liquidity. The risk of a rating downgrade seems
unlikely if normal activity resumes during 3Q20 and the 2Q20 main
shows can be successfully rescheduled to later in the year. The
company has the capacity to absorb some show cancellations due to
its flexible cost structure, priority access to venues and
comfortable liquidity with EUR75million in cash and EUR61 million
available from its RCF.

Downgrade Risk: Longer-than-expected effect of the coronavirus
resulting in show cancellations and travel disruptions beyond 3Q20
would likely result in funds from operations (FFO)-adjusted gross
leverage breaching its rating downgrade sensitivity of 7x both in
2020 and 2021, possibly leading to a downgrade of the rating. Show
cancellations would also trigger refunds of deposits paid up-front
by exhibitors to secure exhibition space, putting higher pressure
on liquidity. Fitch does not currently expect wide-scale
cancellations in 4Q20 but continue to monitor developments.

Upside Case: Change of the Outlook to Stable could be driven by a
sharp recovery in business activity during 3Q20 with main big shows
originally due in 2Q20 either held or successfully rescheduled to
the second half of the year, therefore protecting around EUR40
million of revenue. Financial performance would be supported by the
quarterly seasonality where 4Q typically accounts for 40% of annual
revenue.

Managing Profitability: The main priority for Cassini is to manage
its exhibitions to prevent potential loss of revenue and profits,
and increased pressure on liquidity when shows are cancelled due to
"force majeure" as deposits paid by exhibitors in advance have to
be refunded. Rescheduling events is the preferred option for
largely booked events while the main risk remains in securing venue
availability.

Higher-risk Shows: The risk of revenue loss is higher for annual
shows, rather than biennual or triennial events, which have longer
time between shows, allowing more time for rescheduling before the
next event. Larger events also have higher cancellation risks due
to limited venue capacity for rescheduling. This would be the case
of the next two coming shows in May, SIAL China and Foire de Paris.
However, Fitch sees some protection from Cassini's grandfather
rights under their rental agreements with Paris venues, including
the "Paris Expo Porte de Versailles" for the Foire de Paris, which
may guarantee priority access to a venue if the show has to be
postponed.

Margin Pressure: Risk of margin deterioration emerges when shows
are cancelled closer to the start date as around 20% of costs may
have been incurred by then. However, further margin deterioration
is mitigated by a waiver of rents under the event of "force
majeure" as per current government measures.

Cash Flow Risks: Cash flow volatility stems mostly from biennial
and triennial shows, and exhibits are also seasonal, with about two
thirds of 2020 revenue budgeted in 1Q and 4Q. Negative working
capital from up-front deposits from exhibitors funding future
exhibition expenses is likely to be reversed in the event of
multiple forced cancellations, which is aggravated in bigger shows.
This could be mitigated by commercial actions aimed at reducing the
total amount of refundable deposits and preserving liquidity in the
short term.

Low FCF forecast: Under its new forecasts, free cash flow is
expected to range between 8% and 17% of sales on a reported basis
from end-2020 until 2023, assuming show cancellations to continue
in 2Q while SIAL China and Foire de Paris are assumed to be
rescheduled. FCF would likely become negative in 2020 if all shows
in 2Q20 and 3Q20 are cancelled. This would significantly weaken
liquidity.

Slower Deleveraging Capacity: The company has demonstrated
deleveraging capacity from operating cash flow, which has improved
due to recent bolt-on acquisitions. Fitch continues to expect
FFO-adjusted gross leverage under its revised rating case to
increase by 0.2x to 6.3x in 2020 (2019: 6.3x) before declining to
6.0x by end-2021, assuming normal activity will resume in 3Q20.
Fitch expects a breach of the downgrade FFO-adjusted gross leverage
sensitivity of 7x by end-2021 should the coronavirus disrupt
Cassini's business beyond 3Q20 and hit profitability in 2021.

Leading Exhibition in France: Cassini has achieved consistent
revenue growth since 2013. This is underpinned by its leading
exhibitions in France (74% pro-forma annualised revenue), which
generally rank top with their targeted audience. In 2019, the
impact of localised disruptions that materialised, particularly in
Paris, was well-managed.

Revenue Hit Forecast: Modest revenue growth of 1.3% in 2019 on a
pro-forma annualised basis compares with 3.6% CAGR over the
preceding two years, and core revenues from exhibitor stand sales
remain robust with strong exhibitor bookings for upcoming shows.
However, Fitch expects 2020 revenue to fall by 13% due to the
coronavirus under its revised base-case on the assumption that
business activity will resume during 3Q20 with big shows in 2Q
rescheduled. A worse scenario where shows are cancelled in 2Q and
3Q20 would lead to a 35% drop in 2020 revenue.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

Cassini is a global exhibition organiser and shows a stronger
credit profile than close competitors within its leveraged credit
opinion portfolio. Its operating profile benefits from lower
exposure than peers to cyclical sectors, a leading position in the
B2B event space within France, and revenues predominantly derived
from exhibitors. It has an asset-light business model and benefits
from regulatory protection that allows it to renew exhibition
venues in Paris on effectively the same terms. Its strong
foundation in France and modest, centralised fixed-cost base make
Cassini highly scalable and flexible, supporting higher
profitability and cash flow margins.

Cassini is more exhibition-focused than its peers, resulting in
less diversified revenue streams but helps reduce execution risks
while it pursues an M&A strategy to gain further scale. Compared
with larger peers such as Reed Exhibitions (owned by RELX
(BBB+/Stable)), Cassini is small in terms of scale, has less
geographical and product diversification, and exhibits
significantly higher leverage although both benefit from highly
visible recurring, albeit cyclical, revenue.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

Key assumptions under its revised rating case (on annualised basis)
are as follows:

  - Annualised pro-forma revenue to grow at 7% CAGR 2018-2023
(excluding pro-forma effect from Europa acquisition).

  - Pro-forma gross margin of 49% in 2020 and 50% in 2021, trending
to 51% from 2022 onwards.

  - Annualised pro-forma EBITDA margin at 24% in 2020 and trending
to 25% by 2021.

  - Trade working capital and maintenance capex-to-sales ratios in
line with low historical trends, supported by Cassini's asset-light
business model, except one-off working capital outflows in 2020 of
EUR20 million-EUR25 million to refund deposits for shows
potentially up for cancellations in 2Q20.

  - Bolt-on acquisitions and earn-outs assumed at 10%-12% of
revenue in 2020 and 2021.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to an
Upgrade

  - FFO-adjusted gross leverage sustainably less than 5.0x on an
annualised basis.

  - FFO fixed charge cover sustainably more than 3.5x on an
annualised basis.

  - Additional scale and geographical diversification with less
venue concentration in France.

  - Successful acquisitive strategy without diluting
profitability.

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
revision of Outlook to Stable

  - FFO-adjusted gross leverage below 7.0x on an annualised basis.

  - FFO fixed charge cover sustainably greater than 2.5x on an
annualised basis.

  - Annualised EBITDA margin trending to 25% on a sustained basis.

  - Evidence of sharp business recovery from lifted government bans
on tradeshows and stabilised global travel.

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to a
Downgrade

  - FFO-adjusted gross leverage sustainably more than 7.0x on an
annualised basis.

  - FFO fixed charge cover sustainably less than 2.5x on an
annualised basis.

  - Annualised EBITDA margin below 22% on a sustained basis due to
significant tradeshow under-performance.

  - Annualised FCF margin less than 3% or negative FCF after
acquisitions on a sustained basis.

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Current liquidity is satisfactory with EUR75 million on balance
sheet and EUR61 million available under a revolving credit
facility. Fitch expects adequate liquidity headroom under the
revised rating case of EUR115 million by year-end of which EUR61
million are available from the RCF. This would be sufficient to
absorb show cancellations in 2Q20 (big shows are assumed to be held
or rescheduled).

Higher liquidity pressure would materialise under its downside
scenario where all 2Q and 3Q20 shows are cancelled, reducing
liquidity headroom by 48% to EUR61 million (including additional
EUR7 million of RCF drawings after the springing covenant on the
RCF is triggered limiting drawings to 40% of the total facility
limit of EUR90 million).



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G E R M A N Y
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DEUTSCHE LUFTHANSA: Moody's Cuts Senior Unsecured Ratings to Ba1
----------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Deutsche Lufthansa
Aktiengesellschaft senior unsecured ratings to Ba1 from Baa3.
Concurrently, Moody's has assigned a Ba1 Corporate Family Rating
and a Ba1-PD Probability of Default Rating to Lufthansa. The
issuer's senior unsecured EMTN program rating has also been
downgraded to (P)Ba1 from (P)Baa3. All ratings of Deutsche
Lufthansa AG are placed on review for downgrade.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The rapid and widening spread of the coronavirus outbreak,
deteriorating global economic outlook, falling oil prices, and
asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit
shock across many sectors, regions and markets. The combined credit
effects of these developments are unprecedented. The passenger
airline sector has been one of the sectors most significantly
affected by the shock given its exposure to travel restrictions and
sensitivity to consumer demand and sentiment. More specifically,
the weaknesses in Lufthansa's credit profile, including its
exposure to most destinations across the world have left it
vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment in these unprecedented
operating conditions and Lufthansa remains vulnerable to the
outbreak continuing to spread. It regards the coronavirus outbreak
as a social risk under its ESG framework, given the substantial
implications for public health and safety. The action reflects the
impact on Lufthansa of the breadth and severity of the shock, and
the broad deterioration in credit quality it has triggered.

The downgrade was prompted by the very sharp decline in passenger
traffic since the outbreak of coronavirus started during January
2020, which will result in a significant negative free cash flow in
2020, a weakening liquidity profile and a significantly higher
leverage. From a regionally contained outbreak the virus has
rapidly spread to many different regions severely denting air
travel. The International Air Travel Association's latest scenario
analysis forecasts a decline in passenger numbers of between 11%
and 19% for the full year 2020.

Moody's base case assumptions are that the coronavirus pandemic
will lead to a period of severe cuts in passenger traffic over at
least the next three months with partial or full flight
cancellations and aircraft groundings, with all regions affected
globally. The base case assumes there is a gradual recovery in
passenger volumes starting in the third quarter. However, there are
high risks of more challenging downside scenarios and the severity
and duration of the pandemic and travel restrictions is uncertain.
Moody's analysis assumes around a 50-60% reduction in Lufthansa's
passenger traffic in the second quarter and a 20% fall for the full
year, whilst also modelling significantly deeper downside cases
including a full fleet grounding during the course of Q2.

Lufthansa has felt the negative impact from declining passenger
traffic earlier than other European competitors due its strong
long-haul network to China and the APAC region. The spreading of
the virus beyond APAC has dented traffic on most of its network
forcing the issuer to announce capacity cuts of up to 25% on 29th
February and up to 50% on 06th March to react to sharply declining
revenue passenger kilometers and forward bookings for the next few
weeks. The travel ban announced by the United States on non-US
citizens from 26 European nations will further affect many of
Lufthansa's routes and Moody's expects travel restrictions to
deepen. The sharp decline in demand comes at a time when Lufthansa
has no headroom under its current rating category. Moody's expects
the issuer's adjusted gross debt / EBITDA to be around 3.5x at
fiscal year-end 2019, offering no breathing space against a
downgrade trigger of 3.5x. As a consequence of the negative free
cash flow generation, leverage metrics will be materially below the
requirements for the previous rating category going forward at
least in 2020. The recovery in metrics to a level commensurate with
the current rating within 12 to 18 months is seen as very remote at
the present time hence the downgrade of Lufthansa's senior
unsecured rating to Ba1.

Moody's acknowledges that Lufthansa is currently focusing on
managing its way through this very volatile market environment by
reducing costs as much as possible and by shoring up its liquidity
profile. The issuer has reduced all discretionary spending, has
offered unpaid leave to employees and will hopefully soon be able
to implement shortened working hours ('Kurzarbeit') following the
parliamentary vote to ease the access to this scheme in Germany two
weeks ago. The issuer has also raised funds in the German private
placement market ('Schuldschein') to beef up its liquidity profile
and counteract the lower working capital inflows from reduced
pre-booking fees. Lufthansa had slightly less than 10% cash /
revenue as per September 30, a relatively low level compared to
certain other European rated airlines. Moody's believes that
Lufthansa's monthly cash burn rate is currently elevated and that
additional liquidity measures will be required if the slump in
demand extends well into Q2 and possibly into Q3. Lufthansa should
be able to use its access to various funding markets and its
sizeable unencumbered fleet to protect liquidity even in a
prolonged period of depressed demand. As per 13th March 2020,
Lufthansa had EUR4.3 billion of cash on balance sheet and
approximately EUR800 million availability under undrawn credit
facilities without financial covenants.

Moody's also anticipates that the airline industry will require
continued and further support from regulators, national governments
and labour representatives to alleviate pressures on slot
allocations, provide indirect or direct financial support and
manage airlines' cost bases. An extension of slot alleviation
beyond the current provisions to June 2020 in Europe is also likely
to be important.

However, Moody's expects the measures taken to shore up the group's
liquidity profile alongside the cash burn due to lower pre-bookings
and passenger traffic to deteriorate Lufthansa's balance sheet by
adding additional debt. The longer the current situation lasts the
higher the balance sheet deterioration will be. In any instance,
Moody's expects credit metrics of Lufthansa to significantly exceed
its downgrade trigger in 2020. The recovery in metrics to a level
commensurate with the current rating within its rating horizon of
12 to 18 months is seen as very remote at the present time hence
the downgrade of Lufthansa's senior unsecured rating to Ba1.

The review process will be focusing on (i) the current market
situation with a review of current passenger traffic conditions and
pre-booking trends for the next few weeks, (ii) 2019 results and
company's guidance for 2020 including capex and operating
performance, (iii) the liquidity measures taken by the company and
their impact on the company's balance sheet, (iv) other measures
being taken by the company to alleviate balance sheet and credit
metrics stress, if any, and (v) a comprehensive review of
Lufthansa's debt structure to assess the ranking of unsecured debt
in a scenario where Lufthansa's credit rating would remain below
investment grade for a prolonged period of time.

LIQUIDITY

Lufthansa's liquidity position is considered as just adequate in
light of the very challenging market conditions the issuer is
currently facing. As per March 13, 2020, Lufthansa had
approximately EUR4.3 billion of cash on balance sheet and EUR774
million availability under credit facilities without any financial
covenants. Significantly lower pre-bookings and very depressed
passenger traffic will lead to material cash burn at the least in
the short term. Lufthansa will need to undertake extraordinary
measures to bolster its liquidity. Lufthansa has initiated
discussions to obtain lending collateralized by aircrafts and
senior unsecured lending both in the banking and German private
placement market.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP / DOWN

Given the current market situation, Moody's does not anticipate any
short-term positive rating pressure. A stabilization of the market
situation leading to a recovery in metrics to pre-outbreak levels
could lead to positive rating pressure. More specifically adjusted
Debt/EBITDA would have to drop back sustainably below 3.5x and
RCF/net debt to increase sustainably above 25% to pave the way back
to an investment grade rating.

Further negative pressure would build if Lufthansa fails to
stabilise its liquidity profile. A prolonged and deeper slump in
demand than currently anticipated leading to more balance sheet
deterioration and a longer path to restoring credit metrics in line
with a Ba1 credit rating could also lead to further negative
pressure on the rating.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS:

Issuer: Deutsche Lufthansa Aktiengesellschaft

Assignments and Placed on Review for Downgrade:

LT Corporate Family Rating, Assigned Ba1

Probability of Default Rating, Assigned Ba1-PD

Downgrades and Placed on Review for further Downgrade:

Senior Unsecured Medium-Term Note Program, Downgraded to (P)Ba1
from (P)Baa3

Senior Unsecured Regular Bond/Debenture, Downgraded to Ba1 from
Baa3

Withdrawals:

LT Issuer Rating, Withdrawn, previously rated Baa3

Outlook Actions:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Stable

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Passenger
Airline Industry published in April 2018.



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G R E E C E
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ELLAKTOR SA: S&P Lowers ICR to 'B-' on Slower Leverage Reduction
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit on Greek
infrastructure group Ellaktor S.A.  and the issue rating on debt
issued by Ellaktor Value PLC to 'B-' from 'B'.

S&P expects Ellaktor's leverage reduction to take longer in light
of persistent challenges in the construction segment.

S&P said, "We understand Ellaktor continues to face significant
issues in the construction segment due to delays and cost overruns
that are likely to harm the group's profitability for a longer
period than we previously anticipated. In conjunction with higher
working capital outflow, this has impaired the group's cash flow
and leverage reduction trend compared to our previous base-case
forecast. Under our updated base case, we forecast that S&P Global
Ratings-adjusted debt to EBITDA will gradually reduce to 6.0x-7.0x
in 2020-2021, which is higher than our previous estimate of
approximately 5.0x by 2021.

"We now expect Ellaktor's performance will remain relatively weak
in 2020 and could further deteriorate under a worsening market
scenario.

"We also see additional challenges in the concession segment, the
main contributor to the group's operational cash flow, since the
COVID-19 pandemic could affect traffic levels and limit the
profitability of this segment. Furthermore, we continue to think
execution risks are meaningful, since the group is still securing
the funds for the capex required for its renewable park and the new
Marina Alimos concession. Under an adverse market scenario,
Ellaktor may face delays to secure this funding, which could come
at a higher cost. This would weaken the expected funds from
operations (FFO) for 2020 and 2021. Ellaktor currently has 401MW of
installed capacity in operation in the renewables segment. The
group expects to finalize construction of a 90 megawatt (MW) park
in the first quarter of 2020 and a second of the same capacity by
the end of the year. If completion is delayed beyond 2020 and
Ellaktor cannot obtain a time extension, the tariff received could
decrease to EUR70 per megawatt hour (MWh) from EUR98 per MWh."

Uncertainty regarding FFO and working capital needs has weakened
the group's liquidity position.

S&P said, "We have also revised our liquidity assessment of the
company to less than adequate to reflect its limited liquidity
cushion. Furthermore, the outlook revision reflects our view that
Ellaktor has limited flexibility to accommodate additional
operating underperformance or increasing working capital needs for
construction because it could materially weaken the group's
liquidity position. We understand that the group has EUR190 million
in outstanding recognized claims in the construction segment as of
September 2019, but the settlement timing and amount remain
unclear.

"The negative outlook reflects that we could lower the rating over
the next six to 12 months if liquidity materially weakens from
current levels. This could stem from construction losses or
operational challenges in its concessions or renewables segments,
combined with the need to address working capital at a time of
market uncertainty.

"We could lower our rating on Ellaktor if its liquidity
deteriorated substantially without a short-term solution. This
could occur if the company continues to face material losses in the
construction segment and difficulty in improving its working
capital levels. We could also downgrade Ellaktor if its
profitability weakens further due to increasing economic
deterioration following the outbreak of COVID-19.

"We could revise our outlook to stable if the group is able to
manage working capital requirements by cashing them such that it is
able to generate positive cash flow from operations over the next
12 months."




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ALLIED IRISH: Fitch Cuts Subordinated LT Debt to 'BB+'
------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has upgraded Bank of Ireland's and Bank of Ireland
PLC's Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings and Derivative Counterparty
Ratings to 'BBB+' from 'BBB'. Fitch has also upgraded the Long-Term
IDR of AIB Group PLC to 'BBB+' from 'BBB'. The Outlooks are
Stable.

Fitch has also downgraded Allied Irish Banks, plc's and Bank of
Ireland Group Public Limited Company's - the operating company of
AIB Group PLC and the holding company of the Bank of Ireland Group,
respectively - Tier 2 debt and upgraded AIB's AT1 debt. All the
ratings were removed from Under Criteria Observation.

The rating actions follow the publication of Fitch's updated Bank
Rating Criteria on February 28, 2020.

Allied Irish Banks, plc

  - Subordinated; LT BB-; Upgrade; previously at B+

  - Subordinated; LT BB+; Downgrade; previously at BBB-

Bank of Ireland Group Public Limited Company

  - Subordinated; LT BB+; Downgrade; previously at BBB-

Bank of Ireland

  - LT IDR; BBB+; Upgrade; previously at BBB

  - DCR; BBB+(dcr); Upgrade; previously at BBB(dcr)

Bank of Ireland (UK) Plc

  - LT IDR; BBB+; Upgrade; previously at BBB

  - ST IDR; F2; Upgrade; previously at F3

  - DCR; BBB+(dcr); Upgrade; previously at BBB(dcr)

AIB Group (UK) PLC

  - LT IDR; BBB+; Upgrade; previously at BBB

KEY RATING DRIVERS

BOIG, BOI, BOIUK

BOI's and BOIUK's Long-Term IDRs and DCRs have been upgraded to
reflect that senior third-party liabilities are expected to benefit
from resolution funds ultimately raised by BOIG, down-streamed to
BOI and BOIUK (the latter through its direct parent bank BOI) and
designed to protect these operating companies' (opcos) external
senior creditors in a group failure. Fitch expects the group will
comply with MREL (minimum requirement for own funds and eligible
liabilities) targets and that internal debt down-streamed to BOI
will become junior to BOI's external liabilities by end-2022.

Fitch has also upgraded BOIUK's Short-Term IDR to 'F2', the
baseline approach for a 'BBB+' Long-Term IDR under its updated
banking criteria.

As a result of the upgrades, the IDRs of BOIUK are no longer based
on its standalone risk profile as reflected by its 'bbb' Viability
Rating, but are instead based on its assessment of the protection
offered to external senior bondholders.

BOIG's Tier 2 debt has been downgraded by one notch to reflect the
change in baseline notching for loss-severity to two notches (from
one previously) from its 'bbb' VR, since the bank does not meet the
specific conditions under its updated criteria for applying one
notch.

AIB, AIBUK

AIBUK's Long-Term IDR has been upgraded to reflect that external
senior creditors are expected to benefit from resolution funds
ultimately raised by AIB Group PLC, the group's holding company,
and down-streamed to AIBUK through its direct parent bank AIB and
designed to protect the OpCo's external senior creditors in a group
failure. Fitch expects the group will comply with MREL targets.

AIB's Tier 2 debt has been downgraded by one notch to reflect the
change in baseline notching for loss-severity to two notches (from
one previously) from the bank's 'bbb' VR since AIB does not meet
the specific conditions under its criteria for applying one notch.

AIB's AT1 debt has been upgraded by one notch to reflect a change
in baseline notching to four notches (from the previous five) from
the bank's 'bbb' VR, reflecting a reduction in incremental
non-performance risk. Its assessment is based on the group
operating with CET1 ratio levels that are well above maximum
distributable amount hresholds and its intention to continue to do
so in the future, despite some possible decline in CET1 ratio
levels, as well as having comfortable levels of items available for
distribution at end-2019.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

BOI, BOIUK

The IDRs and DCRs of BOI and BOIUK are sensitive to changes in
BOI's VR and in the group being unable to meet its MREL through
senior non-preferred debt and more junior instruments, or in
failing to meet BOIUK's internal MREL, as this would reduce the
level of protection for senior third-party liabilities.

BOI's VR remains sensitive to a successful execution of the group's
strategy to improve cost efficiency and profitability and further
progress in reducing the still high proportion of problem loans to
levels more commensurate with higher-rated peers' while reducing
capital encumbrance.

The VR could come under pressure if the post-Brexit relationship
between the UK and the EU results in a less supportive environment
for Irish or UK banks and negatively impacts asset quality and
capitalisation or if the Irish economic environment is negatively
impacted by the spread of the coronavirus. Negative pressure on the
VR would also arise if the bank increases its risk appetite, for
example, by materially increasing its exposure to commercial real
estate. Negative rating action could also arise from a significant
erosion of profitability.

AIBUK

The IDR of AIBUK is sensitive to changes in AIB's VR and in the
group being unable to meet its MREL through senior non-preferred
debt and more junior instruments, or in failing to meet its
internal MREL, as this would reduce the level of protection for
senior third-party liabilities.

Given the AIB Group PLC's (and AIB's) focus on a fairly small and
volatile Irish market upside to the VR is limited. An upgrade will
depend on the ability of the group to strengthen its company
profile and profitability significantly and operate with a much
lower risk appetite.

The ratings could come under pressure if the economic effect of the
UK's decision to leave the EU is particularly severe for either
Ireland as it could negatively impact asset quality and ultimately
capitalisation or if the Irish economic environment is negatively
impacted by the spread of the coronavirus. Negative pressure on the
VR would also arise if the group increases its risk appetite.

SUBORDINATED DEBT AND OTHER HYBRID SECURITIES

The ratings of the subordinated and hybrid instruments are
primarily sensitive to a change in the banks' VRs from which they
are notched, or to changes in their notching in accordance with its
criteria and assumptions on non-performance risk.

PUBLIC RATINGS WITH CREDIT LINKAGE TO OTHER RATINGS

The ratings of Bank of Ireland (UK) Plc are directly linked to Bank
of Ireland; a change in Fitch's assessment of the ratings of Bank
of Ireland may result in a change in the ratings of Bank of Ireland
(UK) Plc.

The ratings of AIB Group (UK) PLC are directly linked to Allied
Irish Banks, plc; a change in Fitch's assessment of the ratings of
Allied Irish Banks, plc may result in a change in the ratings of
AIB Group (UK) PLC.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).

TURNER'S PRINTING: Increasing Competition Prompts Liquidation
-------------------------------------------------------------
RTE reports that Longford firm Turner's Printing has gone into
liquidation after over 180 years in business.

According to RTE, the firm ceased trading on March 13, bringing the
curtain down on close to two centuries in operation.

It is understood up to 50 jobs are affected by the closure, RTE
discloses.

The business stopped short of blaming the decision on the
escalating Covid-19 crisis, blaming the move on ever increasing
market competition from across the border, RTE relates.




===================
K A Z A K H S T A N
===================

FREEDOM FINANCE: S&P Assigns 'B' ICR, Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its 'B' issuer credit and financial
strength ratings to Kazakhstan-based Freedom Finance Insurance Life
(FFI Life). The outlook is stable. S&P also assigned FFI Life out
'kzBBB-' national scale rating.

S&P Said, "In our view, FFI Life has a modest, though gradually
strengthening, competitive position in the domestic life insurance
market and has reported good operating performance over the past
two years despite elevated competition and still-challenging
operating conditions in Kazakhstan. At the same time, the company's
creditworthiness is constrained by the company's modest
capitalization compared with peers', as per regulatory requirements
and S&P Global Ratings' risk-based capital adequacy model. In our
assessment of FFI Life's financial profile, we take into account
our expectation that the company will sustain its capital adequacy
deficient around 30%, which is below the thresholds for our 'BBB'
rating level, through retained earnings."

FFI Life has a modest business position compared with the market
leaders such as Halyk Life and Nomad Life. At end-2019, with
Kazakhstani tenge (KZT) 9.5 billion ($25 million) of gross premiums
written (GPW), FFI Life holds 4.9% of the Kazakhstani life
insurance market. S&P said, "The company also showed substantial
growth between 2018 and 2019, and we consider it stems from the
continual development of the nascent Kazakhstan life insurance
sector. We forecast that FFI Life's will more than double its GPW
in 2020, then we see growth between 20% and 25% in 2021-2022."

S&P said, "At the same time, in our base-case scenario, we expect
FFI Life will report average annual net profit of about KZT700
million, return on equity of 15%, and return on assets of 3%-4%.
Although these levels are high, they fall below the Kazakhstani
market average. We expect FFI Life's investment yield will be close
to 8.5% in order to meet its obligations under insurance policies
with investment guarantees. We expect limited overlap in terms of
business from other parts of the group owned by Mr. Timur Turlov.
We assume FFI Life's business will come primarily from the open
market.

"Our assessment of FFI Life's financial risk profile reflects our
view of the insurer's modest levels of capital and its exposure to
higher risk assets within its investment portfolio. We estimate FFI
Life will consolidate its capital at the current levels over
2020-2021, partially retaining its future earnings with a zero or
very modest dividend payout ratio in order to maintain the solvency
margin at least at 150% (with regulatory minimum of 100%). We
expect FFI Life will maintain its capital position over the next
two to three years, in order to sustain growth and increase
liabilities. FFI Life invests mostly in fixed-income instruments.
Around 51% of these investments (deposits and bonds) are rated
between 'B-' and 'BB+', while 49% were rated 'BBB-' or higher as of
Jan. 1, 2019. FFI Life has some foreign exchange risk exposure,
which we expect will continue.

"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that FFI Life's
management will safeguard its market position in the Kazakhstan
life insurance market while maintaining sound profitability metrics
compared with its peers. At the same time, we expect that the
company will maintain its capital adequacy at the current level
through retained earnings."

S&P could consider a negative rating action over the next 12 months
if:

-- FFI Life's business profile deteriorates such that it is unable
to sustainably generate sound profitability and earnings compared
to previous years and with that of peers'.

-- The company increased its exposure to lower quality
instruments, or the capital position weakened, squeezed either by
weaker-than-expected operating performance, investment losses, or
considerable dividend payouts.

-- S&P views an upgrade as remote in the next 12 months
considering the FFI Life's current risk profile. However, further
strengthening of the company's competitive position, teamed with
improvements in the company's capital adequacy could prompt us to
take a positive rating action.




=====================
N E T H E R L A N D S
=====================

GROSVENOR PLACE 2015-1: Fitch Affirms B- Class E-RR Notes Rating
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Grosvenor Place CLO 2015-1
B.V.'s class B notes to Positive from Stable and affirmed all
classes of notes.

Grosvenor Place CLO 2015-1 B.V.

  - Class A-1A-RR 39927WBU0; LT AAAsf Affirmed

  - Class A-1B-RR 39927WBW6; LT AAAsf Affirmed

  - Class A-2A-RR 39927WBY2; LT AAsf Affirmed

  - Class A-2B-RR 39927WCA3; LT AAsf Affirmed

  - Class B-RR 39927WCC9;    LT Asf Affirmed

  - Class C-RR 39927WCE5;    LT BBBsf Affirmed

  - Class D-RR 39927WCG0;    LT BBsf Affirmed

  - Class E-RR 39927WCJ4;    LT B-sf Affirmed

TRANSACTION SUMMARY

Grosvenor Place CLO 2015-1 B.V. is a cash-flow collateralised loan
obligation backed by a portfolio of mainly European leveraged loans
and bonds. The portfolio is managed by CQS Investment Management
Limited.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

End of Reinvestment Period

The Positive Outlook reflects that the transaction will be soon
exiting its reinvestment period in April 2020. Post reinvestment
period, the manager will only be able to reinvest sale of credit
risk obligations, credit improved obligations and from unscheduled
principal proceeds subject to the reinvestment criteria, including
among others, that the WAL test is satisfied following a
reinvestment, if it was not satisfied on the last day of the
reinvestment period. If the WAL test was satisfied on the last day
of reinvestment period, the WAL test should be satisfied or
maintained or improved following any reinvestment post-reinvestment
period. The current WAL of the portfolio is 4.5 years while the
current covenant is 5.0 years (against 6.5 years when the notes
were refinancing).

In addition, the transaction's performance has been satisfactory
and it is passing all the par value and coverage tests, collateral
quality test and portfolio profile tests.

'B'/'B-' Portfolio Credit Quality

Fitch places the average credit quality of obligors to be in the
'B'/'B-' range. The Fitch-weighted average rating factor of the
current portfolio is 35.07 (per Fitch's calculation) above the
current covenant maximum of 34. In the 17 January report, the Fitch
WARF was reported below its maximum covenant at 32.79. Fitch's
calculation shows a higher WARF due to the different reporting date
and the presence of three unrated names that are conservatively
assumed at 'CCC', while the manager may assume a 'B-' for up to 10%
of the portfolio. The exposure to 'CCC' rated assets is limited to
7.5% and currently at 3.3% per Fitch's calculation, below its
maximum. The portfolio does not contain exposure to defaulted
collateral obligations.

High Recovery Expectations

The portfolio comprises of 99.2% of senior secured obligations
(above its minimum of 90%). Fitch views the recovery prospects for
these assets as more favourable than for second-lien, unsecured and
mezzanine assets. The Fitch-weighted average recovery rate of the
current portfolio is 66.1% (per Fitch's calculation) above the
current covenant minimum of 59.67%.

Diversified Asset Portfolio

The transaction's collateral is well diversified with the 10
largest obligors representing 23.7% of portfolio (below its current
maximum of 24%). In addition, the three largest (Fitch-defined)
industries in the portfolio currently amount to 31.8%. There is no
specific limit for the top three (Fitch-defined) industries but a
30% limit for the two largest second-largest Fitch industries,
which is currently 20.6%.

Portfolio Management

The transaction is still in its reinvestment period and includes
reinvestment criteria similar to other European transactions.
Fitch's analysis is based on a stressed-case portfolio with the aim
of testing the robustness of the transaction structure against its
covenants and portfolio guidelines.

Cash Flow Analysis

Fitch used a customised proprietary cash flow model to replicate
the principal and interest waterfalls and the various structural
features of the transaction, and to assess their effectiveness,
including the structural protection provided by excess spread
diverted through the par value and interest coverage tests.

Up to 10% of the portfolio can be invested in fixed-rate assets
(currently 0.85%), while fixed-rate liabilities represent 7.1% of
the target par. Fitch modelled both 0% and 10% fixed-rate buckets
and found that the rated notes can withstand the interest rate
mismatch associated with each scenario.

The calculation of the effective spread of assets having an
interest rate floor does not floor Euribor at zero and therefore
leads to an inflated weighted average spread due to the current
negative Euribor. In its cash flow modelling, Fitch has applied a
haircut equal to the current 3-month Euribor (ie. 40bp) to the
current WAS covenant to reflect the WAS overstatement.

The transaction is allowed to invest up to 10% of the portfolio in
non-euro-denominated assets (currently no exposure), provided these
are hedged with perfect asset swaps within six months of purchase.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

A 125% default multiplier applied to the portfolio's mean default
rate, and with this increase added to all rating default levels,
would lead to a downgrade of up to two notches for the rated notes.
A 25% reduction in recovery rates would lead to a downgrade of up
to four notches for the rated notes.

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10

Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by,
Fitch in relation to this rating action.

DATA ADEQUACY

The majority of the underlying assets have ratings or credit
opinions from Fitch and/or other Nationally Recognised Statistical
Rating Organisations and/or European Securities and Markets
Authority-registered rating agencies. Fitch has relied on the
practices of the relevant groups within Fitch and/or other rating
agencies to assess the asset portfolio information. Overall,
Fitch's assessment of the asset pool information relied upon for
the agency's rating analysis according to its applicable rating
methodologies indicates that it is adequately reliable.



===========
R U S S I A
===========

KAZANORGSINTEZ PAO: Fitch Affirms LT IDR at 'B+', Outlook Stable
----------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has affirmed PAO Kazanorgsintez's Long-Term Issuer
Default Rating at 'B+'. The Outlook is Stable.

The affirmation and Stable Outlook reflect Fitch's view that KOS
will maintain a conservative financial profile, with funds from
operations adjusted net leverage comfortably below its negative
guideline of 3x in 2019-2022 even as the company resumes
expansionary investments despite weaker polyethylene prices and
high dividend distributions.

The ratings are constrained by KOS's exposure to commodity
chemicals, small size relative to that of larger and more
diversified EMEA peers, single-site operation, exposure to
concentrated feedstock supply and limited transparency. While KOS's
geographical diversification is limited, this is mitigated, in its
view, by higher-margin domestic sales due to higher prices and/or
cheaper logistics, than export sales.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Financial Profile to Weaken From 2020: As of end-2019 KOS did not
have any outstanding debt. Fitch views KOS's credit metrics as
comfortable for the current rating and expect the company to remain
net cash- positive in 2019-2020. However, it expects FFO-adjusted
net leverage to gradually increase towards 2x by 2022 due to a new
investment cycle later this year, pricing pressure from lower gas
prices, and higher dividend distributions in 2019-2022.

New Investment Cycle: KOS started an over RUB50 billion new
expansionary programme in 2019, of which RUB11 billion was spent
last year and another RUB45 billion to be spent in 2020-2023 on new
projects. These will boost propane intake for a small increase in
KOS's ethylene production, provide partial self-sufficiency in
energy, and result in a 35% PE output increase. The latter is
expected over the next four years through an upgrade of KOS's PE
capacities concurrently with major shareholder TAIF's
Nizhnekamskneftekhim's expansion of ethylene output, which will be
used as feedstock at KOS. Fitch believes these projects will
improve moderately KOS's business profile beyond 2022.

Negative FCF: Fitch conservatively forecasts that KOS will spend
around RUB10 billion p.a. on expansion and maintenance over
2020-2023. It also assumes that KOS will distribute to shareholders
all previous-year profits reported under IFRS starting from 2019,
up from 30%-50% historically. All this, coupled with PE price
decline, translates into negative free cash flow for 2019-2022. But
KOS should remain in net cash position in 2019-2020 while its
FFO-adjusted net leverage should trend towards 2x by 2022. It does
not incorporate any positive FFO impact from the new projects as
higher PE output is not expected before 2023 and the economic
effects of energy self-sufficiency have yet to be assessed.

Medium-Term Pricing Pressure: The recently observed drastic drop in
feedstock prices, as well as the broader impact on the global
economic activity from both the drop in oil prices and coronavirus,
will likely cause PE prices to contract further in 2020-2021, and
the sector to face more difficulties as a whole. Russian producers
should however be able to weather this turmoil better than their
international peers from the likely depreciation of the rouble.
Fitch now expects only moderate PE price recovery from 2022. Fitch
expects this to reduce KOS's EBITDA margin to below 25% in 2021 and
onward, from 27% in 2019.

Longer-term Demand Fundamentals: Stable petrochemical products
growth normally exceeds that of GDP because of growing per-capita
plastic use. In developed markets, per-capita usage is stabilising
or even falling for certain plastics, such as PE. However, Fitch
believes global plastic market saturation is a long way off,
especially in emerging markets. The PE market will still grow in
2020 even if the use of select plastics for certain applications
starts decreasing.

Supplier Concentration: KOS has a 10-year ethane purchase contract
expiring in 2025 with its principal supplier PJSC Gazprom
(BBB/Stable). Gazprom has historically supplied over 60% of KOS's
ethane feedstock. The contract secures KOS's supply of ethane, for
which the company has no immediately available and sufficient
alternatives. The contract links the ethane purchase price with PE
sale price, supporting KOS's margins, which is credit- positive as
PE prices continue to fall.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

KOS is comparable to its EMEA peers Nitrogenmuvek Zrt (B-/Stable)
and Petkim Petrokimya Holdings A.S. (B/Stable) by way of
single-site operations and modest portfolio diversification. It
however has larger scale, a higher domestic market share and a more
advantageous cost position. These factors also differentiate KOS
from higher-rated EMEA players such as PAO SIBUR Holding
(BBB-/Stable). KOS's financial profile remains the strongest among
the abovementioned peers with zero debt at end-2019. KOS's
financial profile will weaken from 2021 on increased capex but
remain well below its negative rating sensitivity.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - PE prices to decline in 2020 and 2021, and stabilising in the
following two years

  - PE sales volumes flat yoy in 2019 and to decrease by 20% in
2020-2021 on weaker demand expectations. Polycarbonate sales to
remain flat in 2019-2022

  - Capex at around RUB10 billion per year for 2020-2023, versus
RUB11 billion for 2019

  - Dividends at 100% of previous year's net income; RUB13 billion
for 2019

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action

  - Substantial improvements in business profile, with greater
self-sufficiency, scale and/or product diversification

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action

  - Aggressive capex leading to FFO -adjusted net leverage
sustainably above 3x (2018: -0.8x) and FFO fixed charge cover
falling below 3x

  - Increasing reliance on FX debt leading to material FX mismatch
between debt and earnings

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

KOS had no outstanding debt at end-2019. It is planning to raise
around RUB40 billion to finance its capex plan with repayments over
2021-2023.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

ESG issues are credit neutral or have only a minimal credit impact
on the entity(ies), either due to their nature or the way in which
they are being managed by the entity(ies).

TURON BANK: S&P Affirms B/B Issuer Credit Ratings, Outlook Stable
-----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'B/B' long- and short-term issuer
credit ratings on Uzbekistan-based Turon Bank. The outlook is
stable.

S&P said, "The affirmation reflects our expectation that, despite
significant recent and projected lending growth, Turon Bank will
maintain its stable asset quality, with the level of nonperforming
assets (NPAs) remaining close to the system average. This is
because the government guarantees about 23% of the bank's loan
portfolio, and Turon Bank's new commercial lending is mainly in
sectors where it has developed good expertise over the past 15
years. We further believe that expected pressure on the bank's
capital position will not impair its creditworthiness.

"We think the bank has a strong link with the government, which now
owns about 98% of the bank's capital. Although the government has
decided to privatize the bank, we think this will take several
years and the government will retain control of the bank over the
next two-to-three years. At the same time, we think that the bank's
role for the government remains limited due to its small market
share and the relatively small scope of its investment projects.
Nevertheless, we believe Turon Bank benefits from ongoing
government support in the form of guarantees, regular capital
injections, and government funding.

"In 2019, Turon Bank's loan portfolio increased by about 89%
compared with a systemwide average of 26%. We note that systemwide
growth would have been close to 60% without the state-initiated
transfer of assets from state-owned banks to Uzbek Fund for
Reconstruction and Development. Implementation of government-led
infrastructure projects and new lending to the agriculture and food
processing sectors were key factors behind Turon Bank's significant
growth. In particular, in the past few years the bank continued
financing government-driven infrastructure projects to upgrade
Uzbekistan's hydropower capacity. The government chose Turon Bank
as the project's key financing bank in 2017, and has provided it
with a substantial capital support totaling Uzbekistani sum (UZS)
835 billion (about $100 million) over the past three years. We
expect Turon Bank will provide about UZS1.5 trillion (about $150
million) of new financing in 2020-2021 to the hydropower sector. We
also expect the bank will continue to actively expand its lending
business in agriculture and the food industry, as well as in retail
lending, to support profitability and increase its client base.

"In our view, the bank's risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio will
deteriorate to about 6.4% by year-end 2021 from 11.2% at year-end
2019. This mainly reflects high expected lending growth, averaging
40% in 2020-2021, and the bank's modest profitability. We note that
all projects in the hydropower sector have a very low net interest
margin, which will drag on the bank's earnings capacity. We do not
incorporate potential government support in our RAC forecast, and
instead assume a 50% dividend payout ratio. However, the payout
ratio could be lower, depending on the government's decision.

"We note that over the past two years, Turon Bank has maintained
good asset quality and the inflow of new NPAs has been low, despite
rapid lending growth. In 2019, the bank's cost-of-risk was close to
0.6%, with share of NPAs of about 1.6% of the loan portfolio. We
estimate the share of problem assets in the system at year-end 2019
was about 2.5%. Although we recognize that high lending growth may
distort the bank's true asset quality, we do not expect it to be
worse than the system average. We note, in particular, that
although loans provided to hydropower projects are denominated in
foreign currency, the government guarantees the debt, mitigating
credit risks for the bank.

"We think the bank's funding profile and liquidity metrics are
close to the system averages, while its liquidity management
remains prudent.

"The stable outlook reflects our expectation that over the next 12
months, Turon Bank will likely maintain stable asset quality, with
NPA levels similar to the system average. The stable outlook also
incorporates our assumption that the bank will remain involved in
government-led projects in the hydropower industry, while its
capital buffer will remain sufficient to support lending growth.

"We may lower the ratings on Turon Bank in the next 12 months if
the bank's asset quality deteriorates, with the share of NPAs in
the loan portfolio materially exceeding that of peers. Although not
our base case, we may consider a negative rating action if the
bank's liquidity buffer declines materially because of aggressive
asset growth and unexpected outflows of funds from international
financial institutions or depositors. Significant deterioration of
the bank's capital position, with the RAC ratio falling below 3.0%,
may also prompt us to consider a negative rating action.

"Although unlikely, we could consider a positive rating action if
the bank's capitalization materially improves because of the
government support, and we forecast a RAC ratio sustainably over
10%."




=====================
S W I T Z E R L A N D
=====================

DUFRY: S&P Downgrades Sr. Unsec. Debt Rating to BB-, On Watch Neg.
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings downgraded Dufry and its senior unsecured debt
to 'BB-' from 'BB' and places all ratings on CreditWatch with
negative implications.

Travel disruption could last longer than S&P currently
anticipates.

S&P said, "The downgrade reflects our expectation that the group's
earnings and cash generation will be more volatile in the next
12-24 months amid an increasingly difficult retail travel
environment. The outlook for passenger traffic, particularly in
Europe, Asia-Pacific, and lately North America, has been steadily
deteriorating over the past few weeks, and we think that Dufry will
face headwinds for most of the first half of 2020. At its annual
results presentation on March 12, 2020, the group guided a limited
decline in annual revenues in 2020 in the high single digits. We
consider that severe travel restrictions imposed by multiple
governments leave the group susceptible to further downside risks
to its earnings and cash flows, especially if the pandemic is not
contained by mid-2020."

Liquidity sources are adequate so far but covenant headroom will
likely come under pressure.

The group manages its liquidity by maintaining a healthy cash
balance and having a committed multi-currency EUR1.3 billion (Swiss
franc [CHF] 1.4 billion equivalent) revolving credit facility
(RCF), as well as a number of uncommitted lines. As of Dec. 31,
2019, cash totalled CHF535 million and about CHF700 million was
undrawn under the RCF. Dufry's debt coming due in 2020 is limited
to about CHF65 million and its closest bullet maturity is Nov. 3,
2022, when the $700 million and EUR500 million term loans are due,
together comprising CHF1.2 billion equivalent as at Dec. 31, 2019.

The bank facilities contain two maintenance financial covenants:
leverage at maximum 4.5x net debt to adjusted operating cash flow
(AOCF) and interest coverage at minimum 3x AOCF to interest
expense. S&P said, "Our base case estimates the AOCF will decline
in 2020 to below the covenant threshold level. While we do not
expect that the banks would accelerate the group's capital
structure repayment in the current circumstances, its immediate
liquidity could weaken during negotiations with lenders or the
process could result in higher finance costs in the form of
additional fees or change in terms. Moreover, should pressure on
earnings persist for longer than we currently anticipate, Dufry
could find refinancing of its 2022 maturities more challenging."

Restrictions on movement in Europe and the U.S. are putting a
severe dent in economic activity and could result in a longer path
to recovery than earlier crises.

COVID-19 is affecting all aspects of life. Travel is being
curtailed, with passenger counts down sharply. Schools are being
closed. Mass gatherings such as sports events and theater are being
postponed. Offices and factories are being shuttered as companies
move to remote work. And, most recently, cities and parts of
countries are in or moving toward lockdowns, with all but basic
societal functions on hold.

All these will severely affect discretionary demand in the near
term, and have a lasting effect on air travel throughout 2020. S&P
believes that significant downside risks remain given the
uncertainty about when the spread of the virus will peak and
whether the pandemic will persist beyond second-quarter 2020; the
effect on the global economy and air travel could certainly persist
well beyond second-quarter 2020.

Dufry benefits from a relatively flexible cost base and can
temporarily scale back capital expenditure (capex), which should
support its credit quality in the near term.

The group indicated that it has already started implementing a
broad set of earnings-supportive measures. These include savings on
personnel and other operating expenses, as well as identifying
CHF60 million of cost savings and a further CHF40 million of cash
benefits from its working capital and capex management, all to be
achieved in 2020. These measures complement its generally
more-flexible cost structure compared to traditional retailers. For
example, about half of its total CHF2.5 billion annual concession
fees depends on revenue and passenger traffic and would not be
payable for the periods when the stores are shut. In addition,
luxury brands contribute a large share of sales promotions
supporting Dufry's revenues and gross margin.

The measures Dufry is taking should cushion it somewhat against the
immediate effects of travel industry disruption but may not
ultimately be sufficient to support its credit quality, especially
if the pandemic is protracted and air travel and discretionary
demand are not restored within 12 months.

In resolving the CreditWatch, S&P will evaluate new information
regarding the spread of COVID-19 and the effect it is having on
Dufry's operating performance, liquidity, and cash flows.

S&P said, "We could affirm the 'BB-' ratings once we have more
certainty regarding the duration and severity of COVID-19 and it
effect on global travel and Dufry's operating performance,
liquidity, and cash flow. We could consider an affirmation if
global travel looked as though it was going to rebound by the end
of 2020 and we saw the group reducing costs and taking financial
policy measures to preserve cash, thereby maintaining our adjusted
debt to EBITDA close to 4.0x, our adjusted funds from operations
(FFO) to debt comfortably above 12%, and adequate liquidity.

"We could downgrade Dufry to 'B+' or lower if COVID-19, and any
resulting travel disruption and economic weakness, looked likely to
extend through 2020. This would further pressure the group's
ability to restore its credit metrics and sustain comfortable
headroom under its maintenance covenants. In particular, we could
downgrade Dufry if its adjusted debt to EBITDA remains
significantly higher than 4x, adjusted FFO to debt falls below 12%
or adjusted free operating cash flow (FOCF) to debt falls below
10%. We could also lower the rating if liquidity weakens, primarily
because of tightening covenant headroom."




===========================
U N I T E D   K I N G D O M
===========================

CINEWORLD GROUP: S&P Downgrades ICR to 'B' on Closure of Cinemas
----------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on
U.K.-based Cineworld Group PLC and the issue ratings on its debt to
'B' from 'BB-', and maintaining all ratings on CreditWatch with
negative implications.

The downgrade to 'B' reflects S&P's expectation that Cineworld's
leverage will increase significantly in 2020 due to the COVID-19
pandemic and cinema closures.

On March 17, 2020, Cineworld announced that it is temporarily
closing its cinemas in its main markets of the U.S., the U.K., and
Ireland due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This follows closures of its
cinemas in Poland, Czech Republic, and Israel due to government
restrictions on public gatherings. S&P said, "It is hard to predict
the severity and length of the pandemic and the impact it will have
on global cinema attendance, but we expect attendance in the U.S.
and Europe to remain minimal for the next several months at least.
It also remains to be seen how quickly consumer confidence and
willingness to attend public places recover after the pandemic is
over. We estimate that the situation will result in significantly
lower EBITDA and cash flow for Cineworld in 2020, and its S&P
Global Ratings-adjusted leverage will likely increase significantly
above our previous guidance of 4.5x-5.0x and 5.2x at the end of
2019."

Cineworld has a large fixed cost base, but could cut some spending
under these exceptional circumstances.

Similar to other cinema operators, Cineworld has large fixed costs
and charges, mainly rents for its cinemas and interest on its debt.
At the same time, the film rent that Cineworld pays to studios is
based on a revenue share and is largely flexible, and its
concession and temporary staff costs also have a significant
variable component. S&P also expects that under such exceptional
circumstances, Cineworld will likely reduce or postpone a portion
of its capital expenditure. This should allow the group to partly
offset the sharp drop in free cash flow generation due to the
cinema closures. Management's successful integration of the
transformative acquisition of Regal in 2018 and over-delivery of
planned synergies and cost savings support S&P's view.

S&P now views Cineworld's liquidity as less than adequate due to
our expectation of a lack of covenant headroom.

Cineworld's capital structure consists of $3.5 billion of senior
secured term loans and a $463 million senior secured revolving
credit facility (RCF), of which $95 million was drawn as of Dec.
31, 2019. There is a springing covenant on the RCF, tested
semiannually when 35% of the RCF is utilized, specifying a maximum
total net leverage ratio of 5.5x. S&P estimates that due to the
significantly weaker cash flow that it expects in the second
quarter of 2020, the group will need to either draw more on the RCF
or arrange additional funding, and will be at risk of breaching the
covenant on the next test date of June 30, 2020.

Without a waiver or a reset of the covenant thresholds, Cineworld
might also have limited headroom for the covenant test on Dec. 31,
2020, and potentially for that on June 30, 2021, when the threshold
steps down to 5.0x. However, at this stage, S&P thinks that
Cineworld has some chance of negotiating a waiver due to the
extraordinary nature of the COVID-19 pandemic and the group's
previously good standing in credit markets and relationships with
its lenders.

S&P will reassess Cineworld's pending acquisition of Cineplex and
its implications for the combined group's credit quality.

Cineworld is in the process of acquiring 100% of Canada-based
cinema operator Cineplex Inc. for approximately $2.2 billion in
cash. The transaction was announced in December 2019, has received
approval from Cineplex's and Cineworld's shareholders, and is under
review by the Canadian government. Cineworld arranged the issuance
of about $2.2 billion of new debt to finance the acquisition in
January 2020.

S&P said, "Cineworld's guidance remains that the transaction will
close in the first half of 2020. However, given the increased
uncertainty and significant impact of COVID-19 on the operations of
both groups, we understand that Cineplex might not be able to
satisfy the conditions precedent for the transaction. We previously
estimated that in 2020, the combined group's leverage would be
about 5.0x, including Cineplex pro forma from the beginning of the
year. Given the impact of COVID-19, we estimate that if the
transaction proceeds, the combined entity's pro forma leverage in
2020 will likely be significantly higher than we previously
estimated.

"We intend to resolve the CreditWatch placement once we get more
information on the duration of the cinema closures and the
cost-cutting measures that Cineworld will undertake to offset them,
and once we reassess the sustainability of the group's capital
structure and covenant headroom well ahead of the next covenant
test on June 30, 2020. The resolution of the CreditWatch is also
contingent on the progress of the Cineplex acquisition and our
reassessment of the combined group's pro forma leverage and capital
structure.

"We could lower the ratings on Cineworld by several notches within
the next month or so if the group's liquidity weakens, for example
if it fails to obtain a waiver on its covenants to be tested in
June and December 2020.

"We could remove the ratings from CreditWatch and affirm them once
we get more clarity on the progress of the Cineplex acquisition and
if we believe that Cineworld's earnings and cash flow would improve
sufficiently in 2021 for the group to sustain adjusted debt to
EBITDA below 6.5x and restore and maintain adequate liquidity."


CLARION EVENTS: S&P Places 'B-' Long-Term ICR on Watch Negative
---------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings placed its 'B-' long-term issuer credit and
issue ratings on U.K.-based events organizer Clarion Events
(Clarion) and its debt on CreditWatch with negative implications.

The COVID-19 pandemic is putting increasing pressure on Clarion's
operations and credit metrics.

S&P said, "The CreditWatch placement reflects our forecast that
Clarion's financial 2021 (ending Jan. 31, 2021) revenue and EBITDA
will reduce, and adjusted leverage could temporarily rise to
8.0x-9.0x or higher from about 7.0x in financial 2020. This comes
as COVID-19 continues to spread rapidly around the world, leading
to trade show cancellations and delays through 2020. It is
currently hard to predict the magnitude and duration of the
negative effect on Clarion's operations, as well as the timeline
for recovery after the virus is contained. This leads to increased
risk that the group's credit metrics could significantly
deteriorate and stay elevated through next year, while its
liquidity position could worsen if events scheduled in
second-quarter 2020 are disrupted and new show bookings scheduled
for second-half 2020 and first-half 2021 are lower than we
currently expect. However, we believe that over the longer term the
trade show industry will recover as it has after previous negative
incidents."

Clarion will feel the immediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
due to its exposure to Asia Pacific (APAC).

After the acquisition of Global Sources in 2018, Clarion has gained
significant presence in the APAC region, which currently accounts
for about 30% of revenue. Several of its large shows are held in
Mainland China and Hong Kong, including flagship electronics events
Consumer Electronics and Mobile Electronics, held twice a year in
Hong Kong in April and October. So far, the group has cancelled the
April events in Hong Kong, which will result in a revenue loss of
about GBP30 million this year. Despite this, S&P understands
Clarion can roll existing bookings for the cancelled shows into
similar shows taking place in second-half 2020. This should protect
it from losing cash payments that it received in advance. Other
large events in China, including the industrial and machinery
manufacturing shows in Shenzhen that were initially scheduled for
mid-March and early April, are likely to be postponed and go ahead
in the second quarter, as the country gradually returns to normal
operations. S&P's preliminary forecast including the cancellation
of spring shows in Hong Kong suggests that Clarion's revenue could
reduce by 10%-15% to GBP340 million-GBP360 million in financial
2021 from about GBP400 million in financial 2020. This would
translate to adjusted debt to EBITDA temporarily increasing to
8.0x-9.0x in financial 2021, from about 7.0x that it estimates for
financial 2020. EBITDA interest coverage could reduce to 1.5x-2.0x
in financial 2021.

Clarion could face further pressure as COVID-19 spreads in other
countries, especially the U.S. and U.K.

Clarion has several large U.S. and U.K. shows scheduled for
second-quarter 2020. These include the Fire Department Instructors
Conference in Indianapolis, U.S. (already postponed), and Traffic
and Conversion Summit West 2020 in San Diego, U.S., in April. S&P
thinks that COVID-19's rapid spread means governments are
increasingly likely to impose further bans on travel and public
gatherings, which could disrupt events scheduled in first-half
2020. Although there continues to be high uncertainty about the
rate of spread and timing of the COVID-19 pandemic peak, modeling
by academics with expertise in epidemiology indicates a likely
range of up to June 2020. S&P said, "As a result, we assume the
global outbreak will subside during the second quarter, which is
consistent with our recent report titled "Global Credit Conditions:
COVID-19’s Darkening Shadow," published March 3, 2020, on
RatingsDirect. However, we believe that it is too early to
determine the ultimate magnitude and duration of the effect on
Clarion."

At the start of financial 2021, the company had adequate liquidity,
but it could deteriorate if the COVID-19 effects persist.

At the end of financial 2020, Clarion had adequate liquidity and we
forecast its liquidity sources would exceed uses by more than 1.2x
over the next 12 months, even assuming an EBITDA decline in
financial 2021 due to the cancellation of the spring shows. S&P
said, "We understand currently Clarion has fully drawn its GBP75
million revolving credit facility (RCF) maturing in September 2023.
We think its liquidity sources will be sufficient to cover the
group's working capital needs and maintenance capital expenditure
(capex) through financial 2021." However, if more shows are
cancelled or disrupted in the second quarter, this could put
further pressure on the group's cash flow and liquidity. The
group's debt consists of two senior secured facilities, a GBP315
million senior secured term loan (facility B1) and $420 million
senior secured term loan (facility B2) both due in 2024, hence
there are no large debt maturities or refinancing risks in the near
term. There is a springing covenant in the capital structure, which
applies to the RCF and is tested when it is more than 40% drawn.
The threshold is set at a maximum senior secured leverage to EBITDA
ratio of 10.2x. Currently S&P estimates that Clarion has adequate
headroom, but note it could reduce if there are further show
delays.

The company's small scale and high leverage translates to weaker
credit quality than other trade show organizers.

With revenue of about GBP400 million and our estimate of adjusted
EBITDA of GBP90 million-GBP100 million for financial 2021,
Clarion's scale remains smaller than some rated industry peers,
including Informa PLC (BBB-/Stable/--) and Emerald X, Inc.
(B+/Watch Neg/--) Larger players generally achieve greater than 30%
EBITDA margins in their exhibition divisions, with typically
larger-scale brand name shows, greater operating efficiencies, and
a high proportion of business-to-business (B2B) events. Clarion's
events have established niches and attract a loyal and targeted
following. S&P said, "However, we have generally found that the
larger brand name events tend to be more resilient to external
market shocks, create a network effect, attract greater pricing
power, and achieve must-attend industry status. Larger players with
greater diversification also benefit from less seasonality in
earnings from events that may be biennial or triennial, which we
view as a positive."

S&P said, "We intend to resolve the CreditWatch once we can assess
and quantify the effects of event cancellations on Clarion's
earnings, cash flow generation, and liquidity.

"We could lower the rating if the economic effect of COVID-19 is
more significant than we currently expect, and leads to further
show cancellations and delays in financial 2021. This could result
in lower EBITDA and cash flow generation, as well as weaker
liquidity, such that the group's capital structure becomes
unsustainable in the medium term.

"We could affirm the current rating if Clarion performs in line
with our base case and maintains the shows currently scheduled for
the rest of 2020 as planned. The rating affirmation would also
require liquidity to be adequate with sufficient sources to cover
working capital needs and adequate covenant headroom."

U.K.-based Clarion Events is wholly owned by private-equity sponsor
Blackstone. It organizes more than 200 B2B (tradeshows) and
business-to-consumer (consumer and enthusiast exhibitions) events
in more than 50 countries globally with a material presence in the
U.S, the U.K, Europe, and Asia.

Key industries in which Clarion operates include retail and home,
defense and security, gaming and energy, and resources. In 2018,
the group increased its scale by integrating PennWell, a U.S.-based
organizer of events in the safety and energy industries, and Global
Sources, a Hong Kong-based operator that holds electronics and
technology events. Its largest events include the LAAD and DSEI
defense shows, the ICE gaming event, and the Consumer Electronics
Show (Hong Kong).

DONCASTERS GROUP: Moody's Places Caa3 CFR on Review for Upgrade
---------------------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has placed on review for upgrade the Caa3
corporate family rating of Doncasters Group Ltd. Moody's has also
placed on review for upgrade the company's Ca-PD probability of
default rating and the Caa3 rating of the senior secured first lien
facilities (B and C) issued by Doncasters US LLC and Doncasters US
Finance LLC. In addition, Moody's has withdrawn the C rating of the
senior secured second lien facilities, issued by the same entities.


The action follows Doncasters' announcement on 6 March 2020 that it
had completed the restructuring of its debt. The restructuring
included the partial write down of the company's debt structure.
Part of the first lien debt has been converted to payment-in-kind
and equity instruments and all the company's second lien debt has
been either released or converted to PIK and equity. Moody's has
appended the PDR with the limited default (/LD) indicator, which
reflects Moody's view that the completed debt restructuring
constitutes a distressed exchange under Moody's definition of
default. Moody's will remove the /LD indicator from the PDR in
three business days.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The review for upgrade reflects Moody's expectation that the
company's leverage has materially reduced following the
restructuring, and with substantially improved liquidity under the
new capital structure.

During the review Moody's will assess the new capital structure,
financing documentation, structural considerations including the
impact of inter-company and holdco debt, the profitability, cash
generation and outlook for the remaining divisions following recent
disposals and the company's business plan and strategies. This
could lead to the ratings being upgraded by one or more notches.

Moody's considers governance risks in the assessment of Doncasters'
credit profile and in particular the inherent challenges in
implementing effective governance within a lender-led transaction
post restructuring, mitigated by the alignment of equity and debt
holders' interests and the near-term disposal strategy.

LIST OF AFFECTED RATINGS

Issuer: Doncasters US Finance LLC

Placed On Review for Upgrade:

BACKED Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, currently Caa3

Withdrawal:

BACKED Senior Secured Bank Credit Facility, previously rated C

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

Issuer: Doncasters Group Ltd

Placed On Review for Upgrade:

LT Corporate Family Rating, currently Caa3

Probability of Default Rating, currently Ca-PD

Outlook Action:

Outlook, Changed To Rating Under Review From Negative

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Manufacturing
Methodology published in March 2020.

COMPANY PROFILE

Doncasters is a vertically integrated manufacturer of high-quality
engineered precision components for aero engines, industrial gas
turbines, and other specialist high performance applications. It
serves as a tier 1 and 2 suppliers to a diversified industry base
including the aerospace, energy, commercial vehicle and
petrochemical markets. As at December 31, 2018 the company operated
23 principal manufacturing facilities in the UK, US, Germany,
Belgium, China and Mexico.

DOWSON 2020-1: S&P Assigns Prelim BB- (sf) Rating on Class D Notes
------------------------------------------------------------------
S&P Global Ratings assigned its preliminary credit ratings to
Dowson 2020-1 PLC's (Dowson) asset-backed floating-rate class A, B,
C, D, E-Dfrd, and X-Dfrd notes.

The class X-Dfrd notes will be uncollateralized. The proceeds from
the class X-Dfrd notes will be used to fund the initial required
cash reserves, the premium portion of the purchase price, and pay
certain issuer expenses and fees (including the cap premium).

Dowson is the second public securitization of U.K. auto loans
originated by Oodle Financial Services Ltd. S&P also rated the
first securitization, Dowson 2019-1 PLC, which closed in September
2019.

Oodle is an independent auto lender in the U.K., with a focus on
used car financing for prime and near-prime customers.

The underlying collateral will comprise U.K. fully amortizing
fixed-rate auto loan receivables arising under hire purchase (HP)
agreements granted to private borrowers resident in the U.K. for
the purchase of used and new vehicles. There will be no personal
contract purchase (PCP) agreements in the pool. Therefore the
transaction will not be exposed to residual value risk.

Collections will be distributed monthly with separate waterfalls
for interest and principal collections, and the notes will amortize
fully sequentially from day one. A dedicated reserve ledger for
class A, B, C, D, and E-Dfrd notes will also be in place to pay
interest shortfalls for the respective class over the transaction's
life, any senior expense shortfalls, and once the collateral
balance is zero or at legal final maturity, to cure any principal
deficiencies.

A combination of note subordination, the class-specific cash
reserves, and any available excess spread will provide credit
enhancement for the rated notes. Commingling risk is partially
mitigated by sweeping collections to the issuer account within two
business days, and a declaration of trust is in place over funds
within the collection account. However, S&P has considered in its
cash flow analysis any unmitigated risk in the absence of downgrade
language in the collection account bank agreement. S&P considers
that the transaction is not exposed to any setoff risk because the
originator is not a deposit-taking institution, has not
underwritten any insurance policies for the borrowers, and there
are eligibility criteria preventing loans to employees of Oodle
from being in the securitization.

Oodle will remain the initial servicer of the portfolio. A moderate
severity and portability risk along with a high disruption risk
caps the potential ratings on the notes at 'A'. However, following
a servicer termination event, including insolvency of the servicer,
the back-up servicer, The Nostrum Group Ltd. trading as Equiniti
Credit Services, will assume servicing responsibility for the
portfolio. S&P has therefore incorporated a three-notch uplift,
which caps the potential ratings on the notes at 'AA (sf)' under
its operational risk criteria.

The assets pay a monthly fixed interest rate, and all notes pay
compounded daily sterling overnight index average (SONIA) plus a
margin subject to a floor of zero. Consequently, these classes of
notes will benefit from an interest rate cap provided by BNP
Paribas S.A. (A+/Stable/A-1). The cap notional amount will be based
on a predetermined notional schedule, which amortizes in line with
the expected runout schedule of the pool assuming no prepayments or
defaults. The issuer will also be exposed to counterparty risk
through Citibank N.A., London Branch (A+/Stable/A-1), as bank
account provider. S&P expects that the transaction documents and
remedy provisions at closing will adequately mitigate counterparty
risk in line with its counterparty criteria.

Interest due on the all classes of notes, other than the most
senior class of notes outstanding, is deferrable under the
transaction documents. Once a class becomes the most senior,
interest is due on a timely basis. However, although interest can
be deferred, our preliminary ratings on the class A, B, C, and D
notes address timely payment of interest and ultimate payment of
principal. S&P's preliminary ratings on the class E-Dfrd and X-Dfrd
notes address the ultimate payment of interest and ultimate payment
of principal.

The transaction also features a clean-up call option, whereby on
any interest payment date when the outstanding principal balance of
the assets is less than 10% of the initial principal balance, the
seller may repurchase all receivables, provided the issuer has
sufficient funds to meet all the outstanding obligations.
Furthermore, the issuer may also redeem all classes of notes at
their outstanding balance together with accrued interest on any
interest payment date on or after September 2022.

S&P's preliminary ratings in this transaction are not constrained
by the application of its structured finance sovereign risk
criteria.

  Ratings List

  Dowson 2020-1 PLC  
  Class    Prelim. rating   Prelim. amount (mil. GBP)
  A        AA (sf)          TBD
  B        A- (sf)          TBD
  C        BBB (sf)         TBD
  D        BB- (sf)         TBD
  E-Dfrd   CCC (sf)         TBD
  X-Dfrd   CCC (sf)         TBD

  TBD--To be determined.


OSPREY ACQUISITIONS: Fitch Cuts LT IDR to BB-, Outlook Negative
---------------------------------------------------------------
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Anglian Water Services Financing Plc's
senior secured class A debt rating to 'A-' from 'A' and removed it
from the Rating Watch Negative. Fitch has also downgraded its class
B debt rating to 'BBB' from 'BBB+'. The Outlooks on both debt
ratings are Stable.

Fitch has also downgraded the holding company Osprey Acquisitions
Limited's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating to 'BB-' from 'BB'. The
Outlook on the IDR is Negative.

The downgrades of AWF's debt ratings reflect pressure on Anglian
Water Services Limited's (AWS, operating company) financial profile
from Ofwat's challenging final price determinations. Fitch expects
AWS's financial profile to be substantially outside its negative
rating sensitivities for 'A'/'BBB+' in the upcoming regulatory
period AMP7. Despite uncertainty around the outcome of the
Competition Markets Authority appeal, Fitch does not expect a
potential increase in price settlement to be sufficient to maintain
AWS's credit quality. The Stable Outlooks reflect a fair amount of
headroom at the new rating levels.

The downgrade of OAL's IDR reflects its expectation of AWS's
reduced cash dividend distributions, as well as OAL's consistently
weak financial profile including gearing, interest cover and
dividend cover all being outside its previous negative rating
sensitivities. Lower cash flow at AWS as a result of the FD
intensifies pressure on OAL's financial profile. OAL's cash flows
and debt service rely significantly on dividends from AWS, as well
as on shareholder support.

The two-notch downgrade of OAL's senior secured debt rating
reflects the one-notch IDR downgrade and a one-notch downgrade for
recovery, reflecting its expectation of average debt recovery
prospects.

AWF is the debt-raising vehicle of AWS. AWS is one of 10 appointed
water and sewerage companies in England and Wales.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Challenging Price Control Ahead: The UK water industry regulator,
Ofwat, announced a significant cut to the allowed weighted average
cost of capital to 1.96% (real, long-term RPI of 3%) from 3.7%
(2.8%) for AMP7. Lower return will put pressure on AWS's cash flows
and interest cover metrics. Additionally, Ofwat has set tougher
cost and performance targets, introduced asymmetrical cost-sharing
rates and asked water companies to share financing outperformance
(through AMP8's revenue adjustment). AWS's upper quartile ranking
regulatory performance is likely to lead to meaningful outcome
delivery incentives outperformance in AMP7.

AWS's Weak Financial Profile: Fitch expects AWS's senior net
debt-to-regulated capital value at around 79%-80% throughout AMP7,
driven by lower allowed return, tight total expenditure allowances
and its assumption of GBP35 million of dividends in AMP7 to partly
meet OAL's cash requirements. Fitch also estimates average total
senior cash and nominal post maintenance coverage ratios at 1.2x
and 1.4x, respectively for AMP7. All of the forecast ratios are
substantially weaker than its negative rating sensitivities for the
'A'/'BBB+' class A/B debt ratings.

OAL's Weak Financial Profile: For OAL, Fitch estimates gearing at
around 84%-85% in AMP7, cash PMICR of 1.1x and dividend cover below
1.0x as it understands from management that part of OAL's cash
needs could potentially be met through equity injections from
holding companies structurally positioned above OAL. These metrics
are substantially outside of its negative rating sensitivities for
the 'BB' IDR. Fitch does not expect OAL's credit metrics to improve
even if the CMA appeal is successful.

CMA Appeal Underway: In February 2020, AWS refused to accept
Ofwat's FD and asked the regulator to refer it to the CMA. It
stated that the FD was incompatible with its business purpose as it
did not allow AWS to timely address the challenges associated with
climate change and population growth. The CMA process could run
until late 2020 and could result in a redetermination of the whole
price control. The outcome of the appeal is highly uncertain.

Appeal Unlikely to Support Ratings: Its analysis indicates that, in
order to keep its previous ratings, AWS would require a substantial
improvement of its financial profile, for example equivalent to
around 2%-3% of RCV or an incremental cash inflow of GBP200
million, or a 50bp-60 bp WACC increase. In Fitch's view, receiving
such an upside from the CMA appeal process is unlikely. Its
modelling sensitivities are based on modest upside, which would not
be sufficient to maintain the previous ratings.

Upper Quartile Ranking Performer: In the first four years of AMP6
AWS demonstrated strong overall operational performance compared
with the sectors. It estimates a total GBP75.6 million of net
financial rewards for its AMP6 performance (in 2017/2018 prices),
including GBP18.6 million related to customer service. In the first
four years of AMP6, AWS's incentive rewards plus totex
outperformance were equivalent to broadly 155bp annual return on
regulated equity (RoRE) outperformance.

Net ODI Rewards Assumed: Fitch rating case assumes around GBP40
million of net ODI rewards (nominal) related to AMP7's operational
performance, including C-Mex and D-Mex. In cash terms, Fitch
expects AMP7's revenue to increase by about GBP30 million in
FY23-FY25, due to a two-year lag between performance and revenue
adjustment. It estimates that the majority of rewards will come
from customer satisfaction and sewer flooding, while modest
penalties are expected from supply interruptions and leakage
performance. In its forecasts Fitch takes into account AWS's
historical performance, annual targets for AMP7 as well as
individual reward and penalty rates.

Tight Totex Allowance: AWS's wholesale totex allowance for AMP7 is
GBP5,150 million (in 17/18 prices, excluding pensions and
third-party cost), which is around 12% below the totex requested by
AWS in its representations. However, the company's base totex
allowance is GBP3,726 million, in line with its historical base
totex. AWS was also allowed to spend GBP1,425 million on
enhancement, which represents around 250% of its historical spend.
Given its long-standing record of delivering cost efficiencies, as
well as its ongoing cost transformation programme, Fitch assumes no
totex underperformance during AMP7. During the first four years of
AMP6, AWS spent around 9.6% less than its totex allowance.

Potential Shareholder Support: Management expects that a
substantial part of OAL's cash requirements in AMP7 could be
supported by cash flows from the unregulated businesses sitting
above OAL in the corporate structure. Consequently, the dividends
required from AWS to support OAL's debt service and cash needs are
lower, which is credit-positive for AWS. Should equity support be
unavailable for OAL, it would weaken OAL's and AWS's financial
profiles.

OAL's Recovery Uplift Removed: Fitch no longer assesses creditor
recovery of OAL's senior secured debt as above average, due to
general reduction of the valuation multiples in the sector as well
as a step-up in the net liabilities related to the index-linked
swap portfolio at AWS, mostly related to the recently raised CPI
swaps. It has, therefore, removed the one-notch uplift from the IDR
to the senior secured debt. AWS reported a net liability on it
index-linked swap portfolio of GBP717 million at end-March 2019
versus GBP539 million as at end-March 2018. At end-September 2019,
marked-to-market valuation of the index-linked swaps was GBP869
million. Although these liabilities depend on the level of interest
rates, they could reduce the recovery value of the OAL's creditors
in a default.

ESG Influence: AWS's and OAL's financial profiles benefit from
performance-related rewards, which are expected to be around
GBP56.6 million for AMP6, excluding customer service (in 17/18
prices). The existing regulatory framework remunerates UK water
companies with strong water and wastewater performance like AWS,
which supports their financial profiles. This leads to an ESG
Relevance Score of 4 for EWT Water & Wastewater Management.

Additionally, OAL's debt rating reflects the holding company's
structurally and contractually subordinated debt to AWS's. This
results in an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for GST Group Structure.

DERIVATION SUMMARY

AWS/OAL:

AWS is one of the regulated monopoly providers of water and
wastewater services in England and Wales. Its senior secured
ratings and credit metrics reflect the highly geared nature of the
company's secured covenanted structure versus that of peers such as
United Utilities Water Limited ('BBB+'/Stable, senior unsecured
'A-') and Wessex Water Services Limited ('BBB'/Stable, senior
unsecured 'BBB+'), which have lower leverage and do not have
covenanted secured structures. AWS's financing structure benefits
from structural enhancements, including trigger mechanisms (such as
dividend lock-up provisions tied to financial, positive and
negative covenants) and debt service reserve liquidity.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS

  - Ofwat's FD financial model used as a main information source

  - Allowed wholesale WACC of 1.92% (RPI-based) and 2.92%
(CPIH-based) in real terms, excluding retail margins

  - 50% of the RCV is RPI-linked and another 50% plus capital
additions is CPIH-linked, starting from FY21

  - Long-term RPI at 3%, long-term CPIH at 2%

  - Allowed totex of GBP5.5 billion in nominal terms (net of grant
and contributions)

  - No out/under performance on totex

  - Weighted average PAYG rate of 50.9% over AMP7

  - Weighted average run-off rate of 4.8%

  - Nominal ODI rewards of GBP40 million for AMP7

  - Non-appointed EBITDA of around GBP12.7 million per annum

  - Retail EBITDA around GBP15.5 million per year

  - Substantially reduced dividends at AWS to GBP35 million over
AMP7

  - Average nominal cost of debt for AWS at around 5.4% in FY20,
decreasing to 4.6% by FY25; for OAL, around 5% in FY20-FY25

  - OAL's annual cash requirements (excluding debt service) of
GBP17 million in FY21-FY25

  - Equity injection into OAL of GBP40 million over AMP7

RATING SENSITIVITIES

AWS:

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action

  - Class A debt forecast gearing below 67%, cash PMICR above 1.6x
and nominal PMICR above 1.8x

  - Total senior debt forecast gearing below 77%, cash PMICR above
1.3x and nominal PMICR above 1.6x on a sustained basis

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action

  - Class A debt forecast gearing above 72%, cash PMICR below 1.4x
and nominal PMICR below 1.7x

  - Total senior debt forecast gearing above 82%, cash PMICR below
1.2x and nominal PMICR below 1.5x on a sustained basis

OAL:

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Positive Rating Action

Upside is limited given the Negative Outlook. Fitch could change
the Outlook to Stable if OAL demonstrates the ability to maintain
its financial profile in line with its rating sensitivities during
AMP7, including:

  - Gearing below 87%, cash PMICR above 1.15x, nominal PMICR above
1.3x and dividend cover above 2.5x

Developments That May, Individually or Collectively, Lead to
Negative Rating Action

  - Forecast group gearing above 87% for a sustained period

  - Cash PMICR below 1.15x, nominal PMICR below 1.3x

  - A sustained drop of expected dividend covers below 2.5x

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

AWS:

As at December 2019, the operating company had GBP493 million in
cash and cash equivalents, excluding GBP40 million restricted cash
and GBP650 million of undrawn working capital and capex facilities,
with GBP50 million maturing in 2020. Over the next 12 months, Fitch
expects negative free cash flow of approximately GBP30.7 million
and overall debt maturities of around GBP380 million. Liquidity is
sufficient to support debt maturities for at least the next 18
months. AWS has prefunded all debt maturities until FY21 and does
not plan to access capital markets during the CMA appeal.

OAL:

As at December 2019, the holding company had GBP138 million in
unrestricted cash and a GBP250 million undrawn bank facility due in
2024. The next debt maturity is a GBP210 million 5% fixed-rate bond
in 2023. Fitch expects its debt service and head office needs to be
covered by dividends from AWS and non-appointed revenues. Overall,
liquidity is sufficient to support cash needs for at least the next
12 months.

SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL ADJUSTMENTS

  - Cash interest was adjusted to include 50% of the five-year pay
downs of the inflation accretion from RPI swaps for the purpose of
calculating PMICR.

  - Net debt is adjusted for part of pension deficit not recovered
through allowed regulated revenues at the holding company.

  - Net debt includes inflation accretion on index-linked swaps.

ESG CONSIDERATIONS

OAL has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for EWT Water & Wastewater
Management as AWS's top quartile operational performance in FY19
has generated around GBP14 million (18/19 prices)
performance-related rewards. It expects total ODI rewards for its
AMP6's performance to be around GBP56.6 million, excluding customer
service (in 17/18 prices).

OAL has an ESG Relevance Score of 4 for GST Group Structure as its
debt is structurally and contractually subordinated to AWS's debt.

PIER 64: Goes Into Liquidation, 21 Jobs Affected
------------------------------------------------
Joseph Draper at Penarth Times reports that Penarth wine bar and
steakhouse, Pier 64, has gone into liquidation, and all 21
employees have been made redundant.

Sansemea (UK) Limited, the company which owns Pier 64 at Penarth
Marina, ceased trading on March 9, Penarth Times relates.

It is the second time the restaurant has closed down since early
2019, when it was owned by former Wales footballer, Craig Bellamy,
Penarth Times notes.

Begbies Traynor, insolvency and business recovery specialists, have
announced that they will now commence liquidation proceedings,
Penarth Times discloses.

"In a difficult climate for leisure businesses, with high levels of
competition, the company has ceased trading following losses
suffered during a challenging first year," Penarth Times quotes Huw
Powell, a partner at the insolvency firm, as saying.



PROJECT MANAGEMENT: Goes Into Liquidation, Halts Trading
--------------------------------------------------------
Jenny Foulds at Daily Record reports that the completion of a new
nursery and community centre in Old Bonhill has been thrown into
jeopardy after Project Management and Construction Ltd (PM&C) went
into liquidation.

West Dunbartonshire Council has confirmed that the construction
firm, which has been building the GBP1.5 million Dalmonach centre,
is not trading, Daily Record relates.

According to Daily Record, major works are still needed to clear
the site and uncertainty now surrounds how and when the centre will
be completed.


THOMAS COOK: Atol Scheme to Pay GBP481MM to Refund Customers
------------------------------------------------------------
Tabby Kinder at The Financial Times reports that the collapse of
Thomas Cook will land the UK government with a bill of more than
GBP156 million and drain the travel industry's insurance scheme of
funds just as airlines have warned that they may not survive the
summer.

According to the FT, the National Audit Office said in a report
that the Air Travel Organiser's Licence (Atol) scheme will pay
GBP481 million to refund Thomas Cook customers, wiping out almost
all of its resources.

Thomas Cook collapsed in September after 178 years of trading after
it amassed debts of more than GBP1 billion and suffered mounting
losses following changing consumer behavior, the FT recounts.

It failed days after an attempt to raise a GBP200 million lifeline
from the government that would have helped secure a refinancing
agreement with its lenders, the FT notes.

The NAO's report said the government's costs on Thomas Cook have so
far included GBP83 million spent flying home 150,000 passengers and
GBP58 million of redundancy costs for the travel group's staff and
would include more than GBP15 million in fees to its liquidators,
KPMG and AlixPartners, the FT relates.

The official receiver, the civil servant in charge of winding down
Thomas Cook, has estimated that the travel group collapsed with
GBP9 billion of liabilities and said it had assets worth up to
GBP244 million, including airport landing slots and 40 UK aircraft,
the FT discloses.  In October, travel agent Hays bought 555 of
Thomas Cook's 563 stores for GBP6 million, the FT the FT states.

Thomas Cook's lenders, which include Royal Bank of Scotland and
Lloyds Banking Group, are expected to recover as little as GBP138
million out of the GBP1.9 billion debt they had provided, the FT
relays, citing estimates from AlixPartners.


TRITON UK: Moody's Assigns Caa1 CFR, Outlook Stable
---------------------------------------------------
Moody's Investors Service has assigned a Caa1 corporate family
rating and a Caa1-PD probability of default rating to Triton UK
Midco Limited. Concurrently, Moody's has withdrawn the Caa1 CFR and
Caa1-PD PDR at Synamedia Americas Holdings, Inc, an indirect
subsidiary of Triton UK Midco Limited. The B3 ratings for the
USD299 million first lien senior secured term loan (due 2024) and
the USD50 million revolving credit facility (RCF; due 2023) issued
by Synamedia Americas Holdings, Inc. remain unchanged. The ratings
outlook is stable.

Triton UK Midco Limited is the entity which sits at the top of the
restricted group defined under the senior facilities agreement.
This entity is 100% owned by Triton Holdco Limited, which is
primarily owned by SixPlatform VI Limited (a Permira legal entity)
and also by Sky UK Limited (a subsidiary of Sky Limited, which
carries senior unsecured debt ratings of A3, stable).

RATINGS RATIONALE

The Caa1 CFR for Synamedia reflects: (1) Moody's expectation of
continued revenue declines in FY2021 (fiscal year ending 30 June)
albeit at a moderate pace compared to FY2020 (2) elevated
exceptional costs in FY2020 relating to the TSAs, cash outflows for
which were funded by USD80 million of equity injection during the
year; (3) the expectation that exceptional costs will reduce in
FY2021 as the process of setting the company up as a stand-alone
entity nears completion.

Synamedia's credit quality also factors in: (1) the company's
strong market position in the content security, video platform and
video processing markets (2) large installed customer base and
recurring nature of licenses and services revenue and (3) a
supportive ownership strategy from the company's shareholders who
have recently injected equity to support the company's liquidity.

Excluding Cisco TSA and restructuring charges, Moody's adjusted
Gross Debt/ EBITDA of the company at the end of FY2020 is expected
to be around 4x (inclusive of those costs, leverage is considerably
higher). Moody's does not expect any material de-leveraging to
occur in FY2021.

The company has an adequate near-term liquidity profile. On October
2, 2019, the company received additional funding of USD80 million
from its shareholders in the form of an equity injection to help
with its liquidity needs. The company has a cash balance of USD64.7
million as of December 29, 2019 and the company's USD50 million
revolving credit facility is undrawn.

From a corporate governance perspective, Moody's factors in the
potential risk usually associated with private equity ownership,
which might lead to a more aggressive financial policy and lower
oversight compared with publicly traded companies.

RATING OUTLOOK

The stable outlook incorporates Moody's expectation of reduced
restructuring related cash outflows in FY2021 in combination with
some moderation in the rate of revenue decline.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE/DOWNGRADE

Synamedia's ratings could be upgraded if the company is able to
stabilize revenues, improve profitability and drive Moody's
adjusted free cash flow to debt above 3%.

Synamedia's ratings could move downward if the company's revenue
declines do not show signs of moderating, negative free cash flow
is sustained, or liquidity weakens further.

PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Diversified
Technology published in August 2018.

Headquartered in Staines, UK, Synamedia is a global provider of
video infrastructure technology comprised of NDS (security and
middleware solutions to global Pay TV operators), video processing
and cloud DVR solutions. Moody's expects the company to generate
revenues of approximately $600 million in its fiscal year ending
June 2020.



===============
X X X X X X X X
===============

[*] BOOK REVIEW: Hospitals, Health and People
---------------------------------------------
Author: Albert W. Snoke, M.D.
Publisher: Beard Books
Softcover: 232 pages
List Price: $34.95
Order your personal copy today at
http://www.beardbooks.com/beardbooks/hospitals_health_and_people.html

Hospitals, Health and People is an interesting and very readable
account of the career of a hospital administrator and physician
from the 1930's through the 1980's, the formative years of today's
health care system. Although much has changed in hospital
administration and health care since the book was first published
in 1987, Dr. Snoke's discussion of the evolution of the modern
hospital provides a unique and very valuable perspective for
readers who wish to better understand the forces at work in our
current health care system.

The first half of Hospitals, Health and People is devoted to the
functional parts of the hospital system, as observed by Dr. Snoke
between the late 1930's through 1969, when he served first as
assistant director of the Strong Memorial Hospital in Rochester,
New York, and then as the director of the Grace-New Haven Hospital
in Connecticut. In these first chapters, Dr. Snoke examines the
evolution and institutionalization of a number of aspects of the
hospital system, including the financial and community
responsibilities of the hospital administrator, education and
training in hospital administration, the role of the governing
board of a hospital, the dynamics between the hospital
administrator and the medical staff, and the unique role of the
teaching hospital.

The importance of Hospitals, Health and People for today's readers
is due in large part to the author's pivotal role in creating the
modern-day hospital. Dr. Snoke and others in similar positions
played a large part in advocating or forcing change in our hospital
system, particularly in recognizing the importance of the nursing
profession and the contributions of non-physician professionals,
such as psychologists, hearing and speech specialists, and social
workers, to the overall care of the patient. Throughout the first
chapters, there are also many observations on the factors that are
contributing to today's cost of care. Malpractice is just one
example. According to Dr. Snoke, "malpractice premiums were
negligible in the 1950's and 1960's. In 1970, Yale-New Haven's
annual malpractice premiums had mounted to about $150,000." By the
time of the first publication of the book, the hospital's premiums
were costing about $10 million a year.

In the second half of Hospitals, Health and People, Dr. Snoke
addresses the national health care system as we've come to know it,
including insurance and cost containment; the role of the
government in health care; health care for the elderly; home health
care; and the changing role of ethics in health care. It is
particularly interesting to note the role that Senator Wilbur Mills
from Arkansas played in the allocation of costs of hospital-based
specialty components under Part B rather than Part A of the
Medicare bill. Dr. Snoke comments: "This was considered a great
victory by the hospital-based specialists. I was disappointed
because I knew it would cause confusion in working relationships
between hospitals and specialists and among patients covered by
Medicare. I was also concerned about potential cost increases. My
fears were realized. Not only have health costs increased in
certain areas more than anticipated, but confusion is rampant among
the elderly patients and their families, as well as in hospital
business offices and among physicians' secretaries." This aspect of
Medicare caused such confusion that Congress amended Medicare in
1967 to provide that the professional components of radiological
and pathological in-hospital services be reimbursed as if they were
hospital services under Part A rather than part of the co-payment
provisions of Part B.

At the start of his book, Dr. Snoke refers to a small statue,
Discharged Cured, which was given to him in the late 1940's by a
fellow physician, Dr. Jack Masur. Dr. Snoke explains the
significance the statue held for him throughout his professional
career by quoting from an article by Dr. Masur: "The whole question
of the responsibility of the physician, of the hospital, of the
health agency, brings vividly to mind a small statue which I saw a
great many years ago.it is a pathetic little figure of a man, coat
collar turned up and shoulders hunched against the chill winds,
clutching his belongings in a paper bag-shaking, tremulous,
discouraged. He's clearly unfit for work-no employer would dare to
take a chance on hiring him. You know that he will need much more
help before he can face the world with shoulders back and
confidence in himself. The statuette epitomizes the task of medical
rehabilitation: to bridge the gap between the sick and a job."

It is clear that Dr. Snoke devoted his life to exactly that
purpose. Although there is much to criticize in our current
healthcare system, the wellness concept that we expect and accept
today as part of our medical care was almost nonexistent when Dr.
Snoke began his career in the 1930's. Throughout his 50 years in
hospital administration, Dr. Snoke frequently had to focus on the
big picture and the bottom line. He never forgot the importance of
Discharged Cured, however, and his book provides us with a great
appreciation of how compassionate administrators such as Dr. Snoke
have contributed to the state of patient care today. Albert Waldo
Snoke was director of the Grace-New Haven Hospital in New Haven,
Connecticut from 1946 until 1969. In New Haven, Dr. Snoke also
taught hospital administration at Yale University and oversaw the
development of the Yale-New Haven Hospital, serving as its
executive director from 1965-1968. From 1969-1973, Dr. Snoke worked
in Illinois as coordinator of health services in the Office of the
Governor and later as acting executive director of the Illinois
Comprehensive State Health Planning Agency. Dr. Snoke died in April
1988.



                           *********


S U B S C R I P T I O N   I N F O R M A T I O N

Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co-
published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills,
Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Washington, D.C., USA.
Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante,
Julie Anne L. Toledo, Ivy B. Magdadaro, and Peter A. Chapman,
Editors.

Copyright 2020.  All rights reserved.  ISSN 1529-2754.

This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or
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Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to
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