/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCREUR

/raid1/www/Hosts/bankrupt/TCREUR_Public/121120.mbx T R O U B L E D C O M P A N Y R E P O R T E R E U R O P E Tuesday, November 20, 2012, Vol. 13, No. 231 Headlines C R O A T I A HRVATSKA ELEKTROPRIVREDA: S&P Affirms 'BB-' Corp. Credit Rating C Y P R U S * CYPRUS: Moody's Reviews 'B3' Bond Ratings for Downgrade F R A N C E PAGESJAUNES GROUPE: Moody's Affirms 'B3' CFR/PDR; Outlook Stable * FRANCE: Moody's Cuts Govt Bond Rating to Aa1, Keeps Neg Outlook G E R M A N Y KIRCHMEDIA GMBH: Deutsche Bank May Have to Pay Up to EUR1.5-Bil. I R E L A N D CORNERSTONE TITAN 2007-1: S&P Cuts Rating on Class D Notes to 'D' INDEPENDENT NEWS: Plans to Ask Lenders to Write Off EUR100MM Debt TALISMAN-3 FINANCE: S&P Cuts Ratings on 3 Note Classes to 'CC' TOUGHER'S OIL: Has Two Weeks to Find Investor I T A L Y BANCA DELLE MARCHE: Moody's Reviews 'Ba1' Ratings for Downgrade BANCA POPOLARE: Moody's Reviews 'D+' BFSR for Downgrade CASSA DI RISPARMIO: Moody's Reviews 'Ba3' Rating for Downgrade L U X E M B O U R G BREEZE FINANCE: Fitch Affirms CCC Rating on EUR36.3MM Cl. B Bonds CARGOLUX: OGBL Union Wants Government to Rescue Business CRC BREEZE: Fitch Cuts Rating on EUR225MM Class A Bonds to 'B' GEO TRAVEL: S&P Cuts Long-Term Corporate Credit Rating to 'B' P O L A N D CENTRAL EUROPEAN: Investor Concerned Over Company's Condition CENTRAL EUROPEAN: S&P Cuts Corporate Credit Rating to 'CCC' CIECH GROUP: Moody's Rates New Senior Secured Notes '(P)B2' CIECH SA: S&P Assigns Prelim. 'B' Corporate Credit Rating R U S S I A RUSSIAN AGRICULTURAL: Fitch Puts 'B' Viability Rating on RWN * KRASNODAR REGION: Fitch Rates RUB5.6-Bil. Domestic Bond 'BB+' S E R B I A & M O N T E N E G R O * SERBIA: Fitch Assigns 'BB-' Rating to US$750-Mil. Eurobond S P A I N FONCAIXA FTGENCAT: Moody's Cuts Ratings on 2 Note Classes to Caa1 FTPYME BANCAJA 3: S&P Raises Rating on Class C Notes to 'BB' S W E D E N SAS GROUP: Gets Nod From 8 Pilot/Crew Unions on New Labor Deal SAS GROUP: S&P Cuts CCR to 'CCC+' on Restructuring Uncertainty U N I T E D K I N G D O M ATH RESOURCES: Becap Fund Acquires Some of Banking Facilities DECO 12 - UK 4: S&P Lowers Rating on Class D Notes to 'CCC-' GLOBAL SHIP: Has US$8.3 Million Net Income in Third Quarter MALL FUNDING: S&P Lowers Rating on Class A Notes to 'BB+' METRIX FUNDING I: S&P Withdraws 'BB-' Ratings on 2 Note Classes PHONES4U FINANCE: S&P Cuts Long-Term Corp. Credit Rating to 'B' PIONEER POINT: Seeks Recognition of UK Proceedings VICTORIA FUNDING: Fitch Affirms 'Csf' Rating on Class E Notes X X X X X X X X * Large Companies with Insolvent Balance Sheets ********* ============= C R O A T I A ============= HRVATSKA ELEKTROPRIVREDA: S&P Affirms 'BB-' Corp. Credit Rating --------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'BB-' long-term corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on Hrvatska Elektroprivreda d.d. (HEP), the 100% state-owned, vertically integrated Croatian electricity utility. "At the same time, we removed the ratings from CreditWatch, where they were placed with negative implications on Oct. 3, 2012. The outlook is stable," S&P said. "In addition, Standard & Poor's corrected a database entry error related to HEP's Croatian kuna (HRK) 500 million and HRK700 million unsecured domestic bonds, which were previously incorrectly described as secured. The debt ratings on the two bonds are 'BB-'," S&P said. "The affirmation reflects our view that HEP has resolved its immediate funding gap, which was due to upcoming debt maturities and our projected cash flow deficit in the context of its large capital commitments. HEP's liquidity position has improved following the placement of a five-year US$500 million bond (swapped into euros) on Nov. 9, 2012. We understand that HEP will use the proceeds to partly repay before maturity up to EUR163 million of long-term debt that is subject to restrictive financial covenants. These covenants were breached (but waived) as of June 30, 2012. The proceeds will also be used to repay funds drawn under various short-term lines, while retaining the majority of these facilities as back-up liquidity. The balance of the proceeds will be used to fund investments in 2012 and, partly, in 2013. In our opinion, the extension of debt maturities and maintenance of headroom under back-up credit lines stabilizes HEP's financial risk profile," S&P said. "That said, we continue to view HEP's financial risk profile as 'highly leveraged,' due to our assessment of its liquidity position as 'less than adequate.' HEP still has significant maturities under amortizing loans, and we project negative free operating cash flows (FOCF; after capital expenditures, net of connection income) in the medium term," S&P said. "The 'BB-' rating on HEP is based on its stand-alone credit profile (SACP), which we assess at 'b', as well as on our opinion that there is a 'high' likelihood that the government of the Republic of Croatia (BBB-/Negative/A-3) would provide timely and sufficient extraordinary support to HEP in the event of financial distress," S&P said. "In accordance with our criteria for government-related entities (GREs), our view of a 'high' likelihood of extraordinary government support is based on our assessment of HEP's," S&P said: "Very important" role for the energy sector and the broader economy in Croatia; and "Strong" link with the Croatian government, which is the sole shareholder and is actively involved in defining HEP's strategy. "In our opinion, HEP's financial standing and liquidity have stabilized. We also anticipate that HEP will proactively and more conservatively manage its liquidity position to avoid any further liquidity pressures," S&P said. "According to our GRE methodology, a potential downgrade of the sovereign rating on Croatia by one notch will not affect the rating on HEP, assuming no change in HEP's SACP. That said, should we downgrade the sovereign, we will likely review HEP's SACP for any potential implications arising from the factors behind the sovereign downgrade," S&P said. "An upward revision of HEP's SACP depends on continued improvement in its liquidity profile to a level that we consider "adequate" on a sustainable basis. We would take a positive view of: the future timely prefunding of any committed investment projects; the extension and diversification of debt maturities; and the maintenance of sufficient headroom under back-up liquidity facilities to cover unexpected cost overruns," S&P said. "Downward pressure on HEP's SACP could nevertheless develop if HEP's financial risk profile were to deteriorate due to a weakened liquidity position--for example, if the cash flow deficit rises due to more ambitious investment levels than we currently anticipate. Equally, the SACP could come under pressure if the government resumes dividend payments. Downward pressure on the SACP could also come from a weakened business risk profile resulting, for example, from a loss of retail market share due to competition or negative political interference that could include delayed or insufficient tariff increases. We would also consider covenant breaches, which we view as unlikely at present, as adverse for HEP's credit quality," S&P said. "We anticipate that the state's implicit support of HEP will continue for the foreseeable future. Any evidence of weaker government support for HEP could lead us to revise our current assessment of the likelihood of extraordinary state support that we factor into the corporate credit rating," S&P said. =========== C Y P R U S =========== * CYPRUS: Moody's Reviews 'B3' Bond Ratings for Downgrade --------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has placed Cyprus's B3 government bond ratings on review for possible downgrade. The review for downgrade was triggered by two factors: 1. The slow pace of negotiations with the Troika and the resulting uncertainty regarding the likelihood and timing of a support package which raises liquidity risks. 2. Evidence that Cyprus's budget deficit will be significantly larger than expected, which further increases liquidity risks for the government. The key difference between the drivers underlying the rating action and Moody's previous actions on Cyprus is the increase in the country's liquidity risk in a short period of time. This is a new risk factor that was not present when Moody's downgraded Cyprus' bond ratings to B3 from Ba3 in October 2012. The rating action in October focused on the profound difficulties in the Cypriot banking sector, which creates both a macroeconomic risk and a solvency risk for the government. RATINGS RATIONALE Rationale for the Review for Downgrade The first driver behind Moody's decision to place Cyprus's B3 ratings on review for downgrade is the slow pace of negotiations with the Troika, which raises liquidity risks for the country. Cyprus requested assistance in June, but negotiations only began in mid-November. Given that politically controversial measures such as significant changes in the structure of public expenditures (like the linkage between public-sector wages and inflation) and privatizations are high priorities for the Troika, Moody's points to the risk that negotiations could potentially be prolonged. Even if negotiations were to be concluded in 2012, Moody's considers it unlikely that any assistance will be disbursed in 2012 because of the length of time that it takes for euro area national parliaments to agree to any new assistance program. Moreover, the country's political and election calendar, in particular Cyprus's presidential election due on February 17, 2013, materially raises the risk of a delay in agreeing the conditionality and disbursement of assistance until late in the first quarter of 2013. The second key driver underlying Moody's review of Cyprus's sovereign rating is the extent of deterioration in the country's fiscal position in a short period of time, which is further heightening liquidity risk given the government's limited market access. The deterioration reflects a number of factors including declining revenues, a sharp upturn in retirements over the course of this year and the inclusion of debt servicing costs on loans from the Russian government in the deficit numbers. The extent of the deterioration is sufficiently material not just to pose further challenges to the government's fiscal consolidation program, but to materially heighten liquidity risk given the government's very limited market access. Moody's notes that the Cypriot government has been without international market access for well over a year, but can still issue T-bills in its domestic market. In 2011, the country received liquidity support from the government of Russia, but public statements indicate that further Russian support is likely to be linked to any Troika program. At the same time, the weaker macroeconomic environment has taken its toll on revenues, while the benefits stemming from expenditure reductions have to some extent been offset by rising expenditure on pensions and interest costs, as reflected by Moody's recent upward revision of Cyprus's 2012 deficit forecast to 5.7% of GDP from the previous estimate of 4.9%. Factors to be Considered in the Review The review of Cyprus's sovereign rating will focus on three issues. - Most immediately, Moody's will monitor the Cypriot government's ability to access short-term funding while the Troika negotiations continue. The rating agency expects that this access will remain sufficient for the government to meet its funding needs, but evidence to the contrary would likely lead to a substantial downward transition in the rating. - Secondly, Moody's will monitor the progress and outcome of Cyprus's negotiations with the Troika. - The rating agency will also factor in bank recapitalization needs, the key driver for the downgrade in October, in any agreed Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) against Moody's own central scenarios, which have been incorporated into 2013 debt calculations. Moody's central scenario assumes that the three largest Cypriot banks will require more than EUR8 billion in capital from the government. What Could Move The Ratings Down/Up Cyprus's rating could be downgraded if there is evidence that the government's access to short-term funding will be insufficient to meet its funding needs. The rating could also be downgraded if the government fails to agree on a MoU with the Troika in a timely fashion. Finally, the rating could be lowered if the MoU incorporates banking sector recapitalization needs that are materially higher than Moody's current estimates. Cyprus's rating could be confirmed at its current level if an MoU with the Troika is agreed in a timely fashion, and if banking sector recapitalization needs are in line with Moody's current estimates. Upward movement in the rating is unlikely as long as debt levels are projected to remain at very high levels. The magnitude of the government's fiscal challenge is unlikely to decline materially even following agreement on an MoU because of the sheer size of the financial support needed for the banking sector. The principal methodology used in this rating was Sovereign Bond Ratings Methodology published in September 2008. =========== F R A N C E =========== PAGESJAUNES GROUPE: Moody's Affirms 'B3' CFR/PDR; Outlook Stable ---------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has changed the outlook on the ratings of PagesJaunes Groupe S.A to stable from developing. Moody's has also affirmed the company's B3 corporate family rating (CFR) and probability of default rating (PDR) of PagesJaunes Groupe S.A, and the rating of the EUR350 million senior secured notes due 2018 issued by PagesJaunes Finance & Co. S.C.A. Ratings Rationale "The change in outlook to stable from developing reflects the agreement reached by the company with its lenders to the amend- and-extend (A&E) request launched in May, leading to an improvement in the company's debt maturity profile," says Tanya Savkin, a Moody's Vice President -- Senior Analyst and lead analyst for PagesJaunes. "However, the B3 rating continues to incorporate concerns over the prospects of the business triggered by the lack of year-on-year improvement, difficult prospects facing the industry in the deteriorating macro-economic environment as well as the company's liquidity and covenant headroom post-refinancing." PagesJaunes reached the required level of approval among its lenders to partially prepay its debt maturing in November 2013 (c. EUR417 million) and extend c. EUR430 million of debt to September 2015. The revised terms of the credit agreement also include a dividend suspension (until net reported leverage falls below 3.0x), scheduled debt amortization and a cash flow sweep mechanism. The refinancing is expected to close at the end of November. However, the company continues to face the challenge of print revenue decline in the increasingly uncertain macroeconomic environment, despite the growing internet business (in particular through mobile internet audience) and monetization of new products. Although no marked deterioration accompanied the company's performance during the first nine months of 2012, PagesJaunes' revenue continued to decline, with a 2.4% year-on- year decrease. Margins remained below last year both in internet and print business due to the investment made to develop a specialist sales channels to grow revenue from internet. The company's reported gross operating margin (EBITDA before employee profit sharing and share based payment) declined by 5% versus prior year during the period. Moody's does not expect this trend to reverse in the near-term. The company's liquidity profile remains somewhat weak, given the fully drawn revolving credit facility (RCF) (subject to scheduled repayment and cancellation) and expected tight covenant headroom, especially in the last quarter of 2013, when the leverage covenant test level steps down. The RCF size will be reduced from EUR281 million to EUR96 million in Q4 2012 and to EUR71 million in Q4 2013 under the revised terms of the credit agreement. Following its protracted bank negotiation process, Moody's retains concerns about any future negotiations that may be necessary with its creditors. Should the company seek to refinance bank debt with more bonds, Moody's expects that this would lead to a greater interest burden that would further weaken free cash flow generation. The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation of relatively stable operating performance with some slowdown in revenue decline in 2013 but with continued pressure on margins. Upward pressure on the rating could occur should stabilized performance in PagesJaunes' revenue and EBITDA lead to adjusted Gross debt/EBITDA falling sustainably and materially below 4.0x and FCF / Debt increasing sustainably to at least 10%, while maintaining a solid liquidity profile with no covenant headroom pressure. Downward pressure on the ratings could result from further deterioration in operating performance, leading either to adjusted Gross Debt/ EBITDA moving above 4.5x or free cash flow generation becoming negative. A more weakened liquidity profile including increased covenant pressure would also cause ratings pressure. The principal methodology used in rating PagesJaunes Groupe S.A. and PagesJaunes Finance & Co. S.C.A. was the Global Publishing Industry Methodology published in December 2011. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative- Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009. PagesJaunes is the leading provider of local media advertising and local website and digital marketing services, with the majority of its operations (approximately 96% of 2011 total revenue) in France and the remainder (approximately 4%) of operations in Spain and Luxembourg. The company reported EUR1,102 million revenues in 2011. PagesJaunes is listed on the Paris stock exchange with Mediannuaire Holding S.A. (MDH) as the main shareholder with a 54.7% holding. MDH's shareholders are KKR (80%) and Goldman Sachs Capital Partners (20%). * FRANCE: Moody's Cuts Govt Bond Rating to Aa1, Keeps Neg Outlook ---------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded on Nov. 19, 2012, France's government bond rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa. The outlook remains negative. The rating action follows Moody's decision on July 23, 2012 to change to negative the outlooks on the Aaa ratings of Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. At the time, Moody's also announced that it would assess France's Aaa sovereign rating and its outlook, which had been changed to negative on 13 February 2012, to determine the impact of the elevated risk of a Greek exit from the euro area, the growing likelihood of collective support for other euro area sovereigns and stalled economic growth. The rating action concludes this assessment. Moody's decision to downgrade France's rating and maintain the negative outlook reflects the following key interrelated factors: 1.) France's long-term economic growth outlook is negatively affected by multiple structural challenges, including its gradual, sustained loss of competitiveness and the long-standing rigidities of its labour, goods and service markets. 2.) France's fiscal outlook is uncertain as a result of its deteriorating economic prospects, both in the short term due to subdued domestic and external demand, and in the longer term due to the structural rigidities noted above. 3.) The predictability of France's resilience to future euro area shocks is diminishing in view of the rising risks to economic growth, fiscal performance and cost of funding. France's exposure to peripheral Europe through its trade linkages and its banking system is disproportionately large, and its contingent obligations to support other euro area members have been increasing. Moreover, unlike other non-euro area sovereigns that carry similarly high ratings, France does not have access to a national central bank for the financing of its debt in the event of a market disruption. At the same time, Moody's explains that France remains extremely highly rated, at Aa1, because of the country's significant credit strengths, which include (i) a large and diversified economy which underpins France's economic resiliency, and (ii) a strong commitment to structural reforms and fiscal consolidation, as reflected in recent governmental announcements, which may, over the medium term, mitigate some of the structural rigidities and improve France's debt dynamics. In a related rating action, Moody's has also downgraded the ratings of Societe de Financement de l'Economie Fran‡aise (SFEF) and Societe de Prise de Participation de l'Etat (SPPE) to Aa1 from Aaa. Furthermore, Moody's has affirmed the Prime-1 rating of SPPE's euro-denominated commercial paper programme. The outlooks on the ratings of the two entities remain negative. The senior debt instruments issued by the two entities are backed by unconditional and irrevocable guarantees from the French government. Ratings Rationale The first driver underlying Moody's one-notch downgrade of France's sovereign rating is the risk to economic growth, and therefore to the government's finances, posed by the country's persistent structural economic challenges. These include the rigidities in labour and services markets, and low levels of innovation, which continue to drive France's gradual but sustained loss of competitiveness and the gradual erosion of its export-oriented industrial base. The rise in France's real effective exchange rate in recent years contributes to this erosion of competitiveness, in particular relative to Germany, the UK and the US. The challenge of restoring price-competitiveness through wage moderation and cost containment is made more difficult by France's membership of the monetary union, which removes the adjustment mechanism that the ability to devalue its own currency would provide. Apart from elevated taxes and social contributions, the French labour market is characterised by a high degree of segmentation as a result of significant employment protection legislation for permanent contracts. While notice periods and severance payments are not significantly higher than they are in other European countries, some parts of this legislation make dismissals particularly difficult. This judicial uncertainty raises the implicit cost of labour and creates disincentives to hire. In addition, the definition of economic dismissal in France rules out its use to improve a firm's competitiveness and profitability. Moreover, the regulation of the services market remains more restrictive in France than it is in many other countries, as reflected in the OECD Indicators of Product Market Regulation. The subdued competition in the services sector also has a negative effect on the purchasing power of households and the input costs of enterprises. France additionally faces significant non-price competitiveness issues that stem from low R&D intensity compared to other EU countries. Moody's recognises that the government recently announced measures intended to address some of these structural challenges. However, those measures alone are unlikely to be sufficiently far-reaching to restore competitiveness, and Moody's notes that the track record of successive French governments in effecting such measures over the past two decades has been poor. The second driver of the rating action is the elevated uncertainty with respect to France's fiscal outlook. Moody's acknowledges that the government's budget forecasts target a reduction in the headline deficit to 0.3% of GDP by 2017 and a balancing of the structural deficit by 2016. However, the rating agency considers the GDP growth assumptions of 0.8% in 2013 and 2.0% from 2014 onwards to be overly optimistic. On top of rising unemployment, France's consumption levels are being weighed down by tax increases, subdued disposable income growth and a correction in the housing market. Net exports are unlikely to drive economic activity in light of reduced external demand, in particular from euro area trading partners such as Italy and Spain. As a result, Moody's sees a continued risk of fiscal slippage and of additional consolidation measures. Again, based on the track record of successive governments in implementing fiscal consolidation measures, Moody's will remain cautious when assessing whether the consolidation effort is sufficiently deep and sustained. The third rating driver of Moody's downgrade of France's sovereign rating is the diminishing predictability of the country's resilience to future euro area shocks in view of the rising risks to economic growth, fiscal performance and cost of funding. In this context, France is disproportionately exposed to peripheral European countries such as Italy through its trade linkages and its banking system. Moody's notes that French banks have sizable exposures to some weaker euro area countries. As a result, despite their good loss- absorption capacity, French banks remain vulnerable to a further deepening of the crisis due to these exposures and their significant -- albeit reduced -- reliance on wholesale market funding. This vulnerability adds to the government's contingent liabilities arising from the French banking system. Moreover, France's credit exposure to the euro area debt crisis has been growing due to the increased amount of euro area resources that may be made available to support troubled sovereigns and banks through the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the facilities put in place by the European Central Bank (ECB). At the same time, in case of need, France -- like other large and highly rated euro area member states -- may not benefit from these support mechanisms to the same extent, given that these resources might have already been exhausted by then. In light of the liquidity risks and banking sector risks in non- core countries, Moody's perceives an elevated risk that at least part of the contingent liabilities that relate to the support of non-core euro area countries may actually crystallise for France. The risk that greater collective support will be required for weaker euro area sovereigns has been rising, most for notably Spain, whose economy and government bond market are around twice the combined size of those of Greece, Portugal and Ireland. Highly rated member states like France are likely to bear a disproportionately large share of this burden given their greater ability to absorb the associated costs. More generally, further shocks to sovereign and bank credit markets would further undermine financial and economic stability in France as well as in other euro area countries. The impact of such shocks would be expected to be felt disproportionately by more highly indebted governments such as France, and further accentuate the fiscal and structural economic pressures noted above. While the French government's debt service costs have been largely contained to date, Moody's would not expect this to remain the case in the event of a further shock. A rise in debt service costs would further increase the pressure on the finances of the French government, which, unlike other non-euro area sovereigns that carry similarly high ratings, does not have access to a national central bank that could assist with the financing of its debt in the event of a market disruption. The rating action on France's government bond rating was limited to one notch given (i) the country's large and diversified economy, which underpins France's economic resiliency, and (ii) the government's commitment to structural reforms and fiscal consolidation. The limited magnitude of today's rating action also reflects an acknowledgment by Moody's of the French government's ongoing work on a reform programme to improve the country's competitiveness and long-term growth perspectives, with key measures expected to be outlined in the National Pact for Growth, Competitiveness and Employment. Moreover, on the fiscal side, the European Treaty on the Stability, Coordination and Governance of the Economic and Monetary Union (TSCG), known as the "fiscal compact", will be implemented through the Organic Law on Public Finance Planning and Governance. RATIONALE FOR CONTINUED NEGATIVE OUTLOOK Moody's decision to maintain a negative outlook on France's government bond rating reflects the weak macroeconomic environment, and the rating agency's view that the risks to the implementation of the government's planned reforms remain substantial. Moreover, Moody's currently also holds negative outlooks on those Aaa-rated euro area sovereigns whose balance sheets are expected to bear the main financial burden of support via the operations of the EFSF, the ESM and the ECB. Apart from France, these countries comprise Germany (Aaa negative), the Netherlands (Aaa negative) and Austria (Aaa negative). WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING UP/DOWN Moody's would downgrade France's government debt rating further in the event of additional material deterioration in the country's economic prospects or difficulties in implementing reform. Substantial economic and financial shocks stemming from the euro area debt crisis would also exert further downward pressure on France's rating. Given the current negative outlook on France's sovereign rating, an upgrade is unlikely over the medium term. However, Moody's would consider changing the outlook on France's sovereign rating to stable in the event of a successful implementation of economic reforms and fiscal measures that effectively strengthen the growth prospects of the French economy and the government's balance sheet. Upward pressure on France's rating could also result from a significant improvement in the government's public finances, accompanied by a reversal in the upward trajectory in public debt. COUNTRY CEILINGS France's foreign- and local-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Aaa. The short-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain Prime-1. METHODOLOGY The principal methodology used in determining France's ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings Methodology, published in September 2008. ============= G E R M A N Y ============= KIRCHMEDIA GMBH: Deutsche Bank May Have to Pay Up to EUR1.5-Bil. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Karin Matussek at Bloomberg News reports that a Munich court said on Thursday Deutsche Bank AG may have to pay as much as EUR1.5 billion (US$1.9 billion) in a case tied to the collapse of the Kirch group of media companies. Bloomberg relates that Judge Guido Kotschy said in a preliminary assessment of the case that it is likely that Deutsche Bank and former Chief Executive Officer Rolf Breuer will be found liable in the lawsuit. The judge said, Bloomberg cites, the damages will range from EUR120 million to EUR1.5 billion. The case is one of several lawsuits continuing after Leo Kirch's July 2011 death that allege the bank secretly plotted to bring about the demise of his media empire, Bloomberg says. Part of the conspiracy, they argue, was a 2002 interview on Bloomberg Television in which Mr. Breuer said "everything that you can read and hear" is that "the financial sector isn't prepared to provide further" loans or equity to Kirch, according to Bloomberg. The court scheduled another hearing for Dec. 14, Bloomberg discloses. Deutsche Bank rejected a possible settlement with the Kirch side in March, Bloomberg recounts. According to Bloomberg, a person with knowledge of the negotiations said at that time, the lender and Mr. Kirch's heirs discussed a possible EUR800 million settlement. The Frankfurt- based bank last year was said to have rejected a EUR775 million settlement proposed by the Munich court, Bloomberg notes. "The judge looks to have given a range with a sum that is unacceptable to the Kirch side and includes a horror scenario for Deutsche Bank, which is likely to help get them to settle," Bloomberg quotes Christian Muschick, an analyst with Silvia Quandt Research in Frankfurt, as saying. "The figure Deutsche Bank was said to reject as a settlement earlier is pretty much in the middle of the range, maybe that's where we'll end up after all." Judge Kotschy told the parties in October that the court was of the preliminary opinion the Kirch side successfully showed Breuer and Deutsche Bank intentionally wronged Kirch by obstructing the restructuring of the group, Bloomberg relates. About KirchMedia Headquartered in Ismaning, Germany, KirchMedia GmbH -- http://www.kirchmedia.de/-- was the country's second largest media company prior to its insolvency filing in June 2002. The firm's collapse, caused by a US$5.7 billion debt incurred during an expansion drive, was Germany's biggest since World War II. Taurus Holding is the former holding company for the Kirch group. The case is docketed under Case No. 14 HK O 1877/07 at the Regional Court of Munich. ============= I R E L A N D ============= CORNERSTONE TITAN 2007-1: S&P Cuts Rating on Class D Notes to 'D' ----------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its credit ratings on Cornerstone Titan 2007-1 PLC's class C and D notes. "At the same time, we have affirmed our 'D (sf)' rating on the class E notes. Our ratings on the class A1, A2, and B notes are unaffected by the rating actions," S&P said. "The rating actions reflect our opinion on cash flow disruptions in the transaction. As the October 2012 cash manager report reflects, the class D, E, F, and G notes have deferred unpaid interest. As of October 2012, the cumulative amount of deferred interest under these classes stood at EUR2.5 million," S&P said. S&P said it understands that the excess spread distributed to the class X notes is not available to mitigate interest shortfalls for the other classes of notes in this transaction. The issuer relies on servicer advances to address timely payment of interest on the notes. However, S&P noted, according to the transaction documents, the back-up advance provider is not permitted to make advances to cover interest shortfalls on the notes if such shortfalls result from: -- Extraordinary expenses payable to the transaction parties (for example, special servicing fees); or -- The reduction of servicing advances (if any drawings are required, they are not allowed on the portion of the securitized loans that represents more than 90% of the securitized loans). "We believe that it might be difficult to refinance individual loans, and therefore we consider that the number of loans in special servicing will likely increase within the next 18 months. This, combined with impending lease rollovers and a declining floating interest rate, may, in our view, exacerbate the risk of cash flow disruptions to the senior classes of notes on future payment dates. Our analysis indicates that the class B and C notes may be at risk of interest shortfalls," S&P said. RATING ACTIONS "Our ratings address the timely payment of interest quarterly in arrears, and the payment of principal no later than the legal final maturity date in January 2017," S&P said. "The rating actions have not resulted from a change in our opinion on the default probability and likely recovery associated with the remaining pool of loans backing the transaction," S&P said. "We have affirmed our 'D (sf)' rating on the class E notes because this class of notes continues to experience interest shortfalls," S&P said. "We have lowered to 'D (sf)' from 'CCC- (sf)' our rating on the class D notes because this class of notes experienced interest shortfalls on the October 2012 payment date," S&P said. "We have also lowered to 'CCC- (sf)' from 'B- (sf)' our rating on the class C notes to reflect our opinion that they have become more vulnerable to interest shortfalls," S&P said. "Our existing ratings on the class A1, A2, and B notes already factor in our view of liquidity risks associated with these classes of notes. Therefore our ratings on these classes of notes are unaffected by the rating actions," S&P said. "We do not rate the class F and G notes," S&P said. "We continue to monitor the situation. We are likely to take further rating actions if the risk of interest shortfalls increases," S&P said. Cornerstone Titan 2007-1 is a European commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) transaction that closed in March 2007. It is currently secured on 21 pan-European commercial real estate loans. POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CRITERIA CHANGES "On Nov. 7, 2012, we published our updated criteria for European CMBS securities. The criteria update refines the approach to rating European CMBS transactions, and provides a more transparent framework for analyzing the commercial real estate assets and transaction structures commonly associated with European CMBS. We expect that the criteria update will have a moderate impact on outstanding ratings on European CMBS, based on a sample of transactions we tested. The impact on investment- grade ratings is likely to be greater than that on speculative- grade ratings," S&P said. "These criteria will be effective for all in-scope ratings from Dec. 6, 2012, at which time we expect to place all the ratings likely to be affected on CreditWatch. We expect to resolve any rating changes within six months of the effective date of the criteria," S&P said. STANDARD & POOR'S 17G-7 DISCLOSURE REPORT SEC Rule 17g-7 requires an NRSRO, for any report accompanying a credit rating relating to an asset-backed security as defined in the Rule, to include a description of the representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors and a description of how they differ from the representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms in issuances of similar securities. The Rule applies to in-scope securities initially rated (including preliminary ratings) on or after Sept. 26, 2011. If applicable, the Standard & Poor's 17g-7 Disclosure Report included in this credit rating report is available at: http://standardandpoorsdisclosure-17g7.com RATINGS LIST Class Rating To From Cornerstone Titan 2007-1 PLC EUR1.322 Billion Commercial Mortgage-Backed Floating-Rate Notes Ratings Lowered C CCC-(sf) B- (sf) D D (sf) CCC-(sf) Rating Affirmed E D (sf) Ratings Unaffected A1 A+ (sf) A2 BB (sf) B B- (sf) INDEPENDENT NEWS: Plans to Ask Lenders to Write Off EUR100MM Debt ----------------------------------------------------------------- Conor Humphries at Reuters, citing Britain's Sunday Times, reports that Independent News & Media plans to ask its lenders to write off up to EUR100 million (US$127 million) of debt as part of a wider overhaul. The company on Friday said it will need urgent and substantial restructuring in response to high levels of debt and tough trading, Reuters relates. According to Reuters, the newspaper reported that the company hopes to secure agreement on the debt write-off with a consortium of eight banks by early next year. The report said that the restructuring will also include a rights issue, a radical cost-cutting program, and the sale of the company's South African unit, Reuters notes. About Independent News & Media Headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, Independent News & Media PLC (ISE:IPD) -- http://www.inmplc.com/-- is engaged in printing and publishing of metropolitan, national, provincial and regional newspapers in Australia, India, Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa and the United Kingdom. It also has radio operations in Australia and New Zealand, and outdoor advertising operations in Australia, New Zealand, South-East Asia and across Africa. The Company also has online operations across each of its principal markets. The Company has three business segments: printing, publishing, online and distribution of newspapers and magazines and commercial printing; radio, and outdoor advertising. INM publishes over 200 newspaper and magazine titles, delivering a combined weekly circulation of over 32 million copies with a weekly audience of over 100 million consumers. In March 2008, it acquired The Sligo Champion. During the year ended December 31, 2007, the Company acquired the remaining 50% interest in Toowoomba Newspapers Pty Ltd. TALISMAN-3 FINANCE: S&P Cuts Ratings on 3 Note Classes to 'CC' -------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its credit ratings on Talisman-3 Finance PLC's class D, E, and F notes. "At the same time, we have withdrawn our ratings on the class B and C notes following their full redemption," S&P said. Talisman-3 Finance is a commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) transaction that closed in 2006. It was initially secured against 13 loans, 12 of which have since repaid. The remaining loan in the pool is secured by multifamily housing (the Waterloo loan) in Germany. The outstanding note balance has reduced to EUR47,944.603 million from EUR689.9 million at closing. The class A notes have fully repaid since closing and the remaining notes mature in January 2015. "The rating actions follow the sale of the properties securing the Berlin and Dresden Loans. A final net recovery payment of EUR43,091,640 was received allowing for the full redemption of the class B and C notes. As a result, we have withdrawn our 'A (sf)' ratings on Talisman-3 Finance's class B and C notes," S&P said. "The sale of these properties has resulted in a principal shortfall on both the Berlin and Dresden loans. The total amount of principal written off on these loans totals EUR20,744,603. The principal losses will be applied to the class D, E, and F notes on the January 2013 interest payment date. We have lowered our ratings on these classes of notes to 'CC (sf)' from 'CCC- (sf)'. We expect to take further rating actions on these classes of notes once the principal losses have been applied to the notes," S&P said. WATERLOO LOAN (100% OF THE POOL) "The outstanding Waterloo Loan has a current loan principal balance of EUR27,200,000. The loan is secured by 10 multifamily housing buildings in Mannheim and Muenster, Germany and is due to mature in January 2013.The loan has a current reported interest coverage ratio of 1.89x and a loan-to-value ratio of 74.92%. The most recent portfolio revaluation was in December 2009 by Cushman and Wakefield for EUR36.3 million, marginally down from EUR36.7 million at issuance. Although we believe that a whole-loan refinancing by 2013 may be difficult to achieve if market conditions persist, we do not currently anticipate principal losses on the loan," S&P said. COUNTERPARTY RISK "As we are not seeking to rate the notes above the counterparty ratings, there is no associated counterparty risk," S&P said. POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CRITERIA CHANGES "On Nov. 7, 2012, we published our updated criteria for rating European CMBS. The criteria update refines the approach to rating European CMBS transactions, and provides a more transparent framework for analyzing the commercial real estate assets and transaction structures commonly associated with European CMBS. We expect that the criteria update will have a moderate impact on outstanding ratings on European CMBS, based on a sample of transactions we tested. The impact on investment-grade ratings is likely to be greater than that on speculative-grade ratings," S&P said. "These criteria will be effective for all in-scope ratings from Dec. 6, 2012, at which time we expect to place all the ratings likely to be affected on CreditWatch. We expect to resolve any rating changes within 6 months of the effective date of the criteria," S&P said. RATINGS LIST Class Rating To From Talisman-3 Finance PLC EUR689.9 Million Commercial Mortgage-Backed Floating-Rate Notes Ratings Lowered D CC (sf) CCC- (sf) E CC (sf) CCC- (sf) F CC (sf) CCC- (sf) Ratings Withdrawn B NR (sf) A (sf) C NR (sf) A (sf) TOUGHER'S OIL: Has Two Weeks to Find Investor --------------------------------------------- Irish Independent reports that Tougher's Oil Distributors has been given a two-week reprieve by a High Court judge before he decides whether or not it has a reasonable prospect of survival justifying further court protection. The National Asset Management Agency, owed EUR53 million by the company, had opposed an examiner being appointed to it, arguing the business has no reasonable prospect of survival and examinership would just mean more costs for the agency, Irish Independent relates. NAMA barrister Lyndon MacCann also raised issues about how Michael McAteer of Grant Thornton was appointed interim examiner to Tougher's by the High Court last month at the petition of the company, Irish Independent notes. Mr. MacCann, Irish Independent cites, said NAMA was not informed of the intention to make that application in breach of the NAMA Act 2009. According to Irish Independent, Mr. MacCann said it was very unlikely an investor would be found who would pay off the secured creditors and then invest in the business. Tougher's Oil Distributors is a company operating a chain of fuel stations. ========= I T A L Y ========= BANCA DELLE MARCHE: Moody's Reviews 'Ba1' Ratings for Downgrade --------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has placed on review for downgrade Banca delle Marche's Ba1 long-term debt and deposit ratings and D standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR), equivalent to ba2 standalone credit assessment. The bank's Not-Prime short-term rating is unaffected by these rating announcements. The decision to review the ratings for downgrade reflects Moody's concern about the bank's deteriorating asset quality and the adequacy of its provisions for these assets, against the backdrop of a very challenging operating environment in Italy. The concerns are further based on the bank's funding flexibility, with a significant dependence in central bank funding possibly being exacerbated by the maturity of its wholesale funding in 2014. The review will therefore focus on the bank's asset quality development and its ability to build sufficient loan loss provisions against non-performing assets, as well as its longer- term funding plans. Ratings Rationale The banks' asset quality is weak and below average, with problem loans as a percentage of gross loans at 14.3% at June 2012. In particular, the bank's coverage of the different Italian problem- loan categories is very weak and has been falling over recent years. Following the capital increase of EUR180 million (about 10% of current total tangible common equity) in the first half of 2012, the bank's capital provides a sufficient buffer under Moody's central scenario, but renders the bank vulnerable to losses under the rating agency's adverse scenario. The bank's Tier 1 ratio stood at 8.4% at June 2012, compared with a system average of about 10%. The bank is -- and has always been -- mainly retail funded; its other funds currently come from the European Central Bank (about 10% as of June 2012). The rest stems from wholesale market funding and Moody's believes that there is a risk that market access will continue to be restricted and costly for an extended period. As a result, uncertainty regarding when the bank will again be able to fund itself regularly -- and on an economic basis -- in the markets is an additional rating driver. Macroeconomic data and the outlook for Italy was revised down from Q2 2012 to now. Unemployment increased from 10.1% in May 2012 to 10.8% in September 2012 (as of ISTAT, the Italian institute for statistics). According to Moody's most recent forecast from November 2012, Italian GDP is expected to fall between 2.0% and 3.0% in 2012 (instead of a 1-2% decline forecast in April 2012), and between 1% and 0.0% in 2013 (rather than - 0.5% to +0.5% forecast in April 2012). What Could Change The Rating Up/Down As indicated by the review for downgrade, Moody's currently does not expect any upward rating pressure. Downward rating pressure on the bank's standalone credit assessment would primarily stem from further asset quality deterioration, coupled with insufficient profitability to allow an improvement in the coverage ratio of its non-performing assets. The bank's Ba1 debt and deposit ratings currently incorporate one notch of uplift due to systemic (government) support, from the bank's standalone credit strength. Therefore, any change in the BFSR will likely have an impact on the deposit ratings. LIST OF AFFECTED CREDIT RATINGS Bank Deposits Ba1 -- on review for downgrade Bank Financial Strength D -- on review for downgrade Baseline Credit Assessment ba2 -- on review for downgrade Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment ba2 -- on review for downgrade Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr Ba1 -- on review for downgrade Subordinate -Dom Curr Ba3 -- on review for downgrade Jr Subordinate MTN -Dom Curr (P)B1 -- on review for downgrade Tier III MTN -Dom Curr (P)Ba3 -- on review for downgrade Methodology Used The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology" published in June 2012. Banca della Marche is headquartered in Jesi, Italy. As of June 2012, it had total assets of EUR23.9 billion. BANCA POPOLARE: Moody's Reviews 'D+' BFSR for Downgrade ------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has placed on review for downgrade the Baa3/Prime-3 long and short-term debt and deposit ratings of Banca Popolare di Milano (BPM) and the D+ standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR), equivalent to a standalone credit assessment of ba1. The review primarily reflects Moody's view that BPM's internal capital generation is low and that its asset quality is weakening, against the background of a weak economic environment. The review will focus on the ability of BPM's new management to improve the bank's financial flexibility. Ratings Rationale Moody's says that between 2011 and 2012, BPM's internal capital generation capacity was weak, even when excluding considerable a goodwill impairment of EUR696 million from the bank's net results, against a continuing trend of deteriorating asset quality. In September 2012, the bank reported a high 31% annual increase of gross problem loans to 10.7% of loans, with a low coverage of loan-loss reserves, combined with continuing high concentrations to the real-estate and corporate sectors. The bank's business plan shows a planned reduction of its significant real-estate concentration from 24% of loans in 2011 to a projected 21% of the outstanding loans in 2015. In view of Moody's weak GDP growth outlook for Italy, the deteriorating trend of BPM's asset quality is likely to continue well into 2013, exerting pressure on the bank's performance, even though the bank's new management seeks to implement a business plan to improve the bank's financial condition. During its review, Moody's will assess the extent to which management is able to execute its plan in the face of potential challenges both internally -- given the bank's structural constraints to cost flexibility -- and externally, given the macroeconomic headwinds. Focus of the Review During the review period Moody's will assess, among other things: (1) How the bank addresses structural impediments to cost flexibility; (2) How the bank remediates the deficiencies highlighted by the 2011's regulatory inspection with respect to credit-risk management, IT and organization; (3) The performance of the real-estate portfolio; and (4) The impact on the bank's top-line profitability of low-cost ECB funding (EUR4.7 billion as of November 2012) and its investment in higher-yield instruments (i.e., Italian government bonds). What Could Move The Ratings Up/Down At present, there is no upwards pressure on the ratings, given the review for downgrade. However, the following factors could justify a confirmation of the ratings (1) material improvement in the internal capital generation on a sustainable basis; and (2) strengthening of the capital base (excluding the government support of EUR500 million hybrid). Conversely, a downgrade could result from (1) failure to structurally strengthen the group's profitability by regaining some cost flexibility; (2) unabated deteriorating asset-quality trends; or (3) lower capital adequacy. List of affected ratings: - Senior unsecured debt and EMTN, and bank deposits: Baa3; (P)Baa3 / RuR down - Short-term debt and deposit: P-3 / RuR down - Subordinate debt and EMTN: Ba2; (P)Ba2 / RuR down - Tier III EMTN: (P)Ba2 / RuR down - Junior subordinate EMTN: (P)Ba3 / RuR down - Preferred stock: B3(hyb) / RuR down - Bank Financial Strength Rating: D+ / RuR down - Baseline Credit Assessment: ba1 / RuR down The principal methodology used in this rating was Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology published in June 2012. CASSA DI RISPARMIO: Moody's Reviews 'Ba3' Rating for Downgrade -------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has placed on review for downgrade Cassa di Risparmio di Ferrara's (CR Ferrara) Ba3 long-term deposit ratings and the D- standalone bank financial strength rating (BFSR), equivalent to ba3 standalone credit assessment. CR Ferrara's Not-Prime short-term rating is unaffected by this rating action. The decision to review the ratings for downgrade reflects Moody's concern regarding (1) the ability of the management team to restore CR Ferrara's profitability and ensure sufficient internal capital generation against the backdrop of a very challenging operating environment; (2) the bank's high stock of problem loans; and (3) its funding flexibilities to reduce dependence on central bank liquidity support. The review will therefore primarily focus on whether -- in the current difficult operating environment -- CR Ferrara's financial fundamentals can be sufficiently improved in a short period of time to reduce the risk of requiring external support. Ratings Rationale Relative to its Italian banking peers, CR Ferrara's asset quality is amongst the worst, with problem loans as a percentage of gross loans at 20.3%, as of December 2011. CR Ferrara's Tier 1 capital (which stood at 8.1% at December 2011) remains vulnerable under Moody's adverse scenario. Given high loan-loss provisions, Moody's notes that CR Ferrara has been loss-making for the last three years. In 2011 CR Ferrara reported a reduced net loss of EUR22million (2010: net loss of EUR58million, 2009: net loss of EUR78million), and while Moody's expects its subsidiaries to be now mainly marginally loss-making, its future profitability will depend mainly on credit-expenditure costs. However, given its recently revised macroeconomic forecasts, Moody's is concerned that the bank faces strong headwinds in its restructuring program, and the review will focus on the bank's progress versus its plans and its ability to adapt its restructuring plans towards a harsher operating environment. In Moody's view, CR Ferrara's management team, has been relatively decisive in restructuring CR Ferrara. However, given the ongoing financial crisis and the weak Italian operating environment, Moody's notes that CR Ferrara has had to amend its restructuring process. CR Ferrara is a mainly retail funded institution; its other funds currently stem from the European Central Bank, (about 23% at December 2011), with the rest from wholesale market funding. Moody's believes that there is a risk that market access will continue to be restricted for an extended period. As a result, uncertainty regarding when the bank will again be able to fund itself regularly -- and on an economic basis --in the markets adds uncertainty to the restructuring plan and is another credit risk. Moody's notes that CR Ferrara had undertaken an expansion strategy outside its home region (total assets roughly doubled between 2004-09), including the acquisition of a leasing and factoring company and several newly established local retail banks. Many of these institutions never reached break-even, and since 2009 -- especially under new management -- CR Ferrara has been refocusing on its core activities in its home territory. The intention was initially to sell non-core assets and subsidiaries, but with the crisis, this has been difficult and ultimately few have been sold, many have been consolidated, or are in run-off. What Could Change The Rating Up/Down As indicated by the review for downgrade, Moody's currently does not expect any upward rating pressure. Downward rating pressure on the bank's standalone credit assessment would primarily be driven by the banks success (or lack thereof) of its turnaround plan, its ability to improve profitability and clean up its balance sheet, thus protecting it against further asset quality deterioration. CR Ferrara's Ba3 deposit ratings do not currently incorporate any uplift from systemic (government support), from the bank's standalone credit strength. Therefore, any change in the BFSR will likely have an impact on the deposit ratings. Depending on Moody's assessment of the bank's financial fundamentals, the rating agency says that CR Ferrara's ratings might be downgraded by several notches. List of Affected Credit Ratings Bank Deposits Ba3 -- on review for downgrade Bank Financial Strength D- -- on review for downgrade Baseline Credit Assessment ba3 -- on review for downgrade Adjusted Baseline Credit Assessment ba3 -- on review for downgrade Issuer Rating -Dom Curr Ba3 -- on review for downgrade Senior Unsecured MTN -Dom Curr (P)Ba3 -- on review for downgrade Subordinate MTN -Dom Curr (P)B1 -- on review for downgrade Jr Subordinate MTN -Dom Curr (P)B2 -- on review for downgrade Tier III MTN -Dom Curr (P)B1 -- on review for downgrade Methodology Used The principal methodology used in these ratings was "Moody's Consolidated Global Bank Rating Methodology" published in June 2012. CR Ferrara is headquartered in Ferrara, Italy. As of December 2011, it had total assets of EUR7.3 billion. =================== L U X E M B O U R G =================== BREEZE FINANCE: Fitch Affirms CCC Rating on EUR36.3MM Cl. B Bonds ----------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has affirmed Breeze Finance S.A.'s (Breeze 3) class A and B bonds as follows: -- EUR222.3m class A (XS0294895999) affirmed at 'B+'; Outlook Negative -- EUR76.3m class B (XS0294895726) affirmed at 'CCC' The affirmation reflects the transaction's stable performance in 2011 and 2012 in terms of revenue generation, as a result of much improved wind conditions compared to 2009 and 2010 and solid availability levels. Historically, class A has proven to be relatively resilient, with full debt service payments also met at the particularly testing October 2010 payment date without the need to draw on the cash reserve. At the most recent payment date in October 2012, the excess cash available after class A debt service was EUR2.5 million. A positive development for the transaction is the German parliament's resolution regarding the over-indebtedness provision under the German insolvency law on November 9, 2012. This removes the risk that the Breeze 3 borrower may be forced into insolvency due to formal balance sheet over-indebtedness. The Negative Outlook however reflects, primarily, the risk of operation and maintenance (O&M) costs materially exceeding present projections. Class A remains exposed to the risk of shortfalls in cash available for debt service at the October payment dates as a result of weak wind conditions during the summer months, coupled with a decrease in availability and cost increases due to the ageing of the wind turbines. This may result in drawings on the class A debt service reserve (class A DSRA) to meet class A debt service in full. As the replenishment of class A's cash reserve is structurally subordinated to debt service on class B, it is not expected that amounts drawn would be paid back. A total of EUR7.8 million of class B past debt service is currently deferred. The transaction's historical performance clearly suggests that a repayment in full of such class of bonds by their scheduled maturity in 2027 is increasingly doubtful. This could be achieved only if wind conditions in the future where to consistently exceed the best year of performance so far. Breeze 3 is a Luxembourg SPV that issued three classes of notes on 19 April 2007 for an aggregate issuance amount of EUR455m to finance the acquisition and completion of a portfolio of wind farms located in Germany and France, as well as establishing various reserve accounts. The notes will be repaid from the cash flow generated by the sale of the energy produced by the wind farms, mainly under regulated tariffs. CARGOLUX: OGBL Union Wants Government to Rescue Business -------------------------------------------------------- Nicholas Comfort at Bloomberg News, citing Die Welt, reports that the Luxembourg labor union OGBL said the government should act to keep Cargolux from bankruptcy. According to Bloomberg, the German newspaper said the company's management estimates Cargolux needs EUR200 million equity. Bloomberg notes that Welt, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter, said Volga-Dnepr Group is in talks to supply funds. FlightGlobal reported on Nov. 16 that Qatar Airways is abandoning its 35% shareholding in Cargolux after failing to push through restructuring measures, Bloomberg relates. Cargolux is a Luxembourg-based freight carrier. CRC BREEZE: Fitch Cuts Rating on EUR225MM Class A Bonds to 'B' -------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has downgraded CRC Breeze Finance S.A.'s (Breeze 2) class A and affirmed the class B bonds as follows: -- EUR226m class A (XS0253493349) downgraded to 'B' from 'B+'; Outlook Stable -- EUR33m class B (XS0253496441) affirmed at 'CCC' The downgrade of the class A bonds reflects the borrower's tight liquidity position at the November payment dates. A marginal reduction in cash available for debt service as a result of low energy production during the summer months or rising operating and maintenance costs is a conceivable scenario, that may result in the need to draw on the class A debt service reserve account (class A DSRA) to meet class A debt service in full. The wind yield in 2011 and 2012 to date improved compared to the low wind experienced in 2009 and 2010. However, the EUR973,000 excess cash available after servicing class A debt at the most recent payment date in November 2012 is testament to the thin cash cushion available for class A in case of a decline of operating cash flows. This compares to the EUR2.5 million of cash available after class A debt service for Breeze 3 -- Breeze 2's closest comparable peer -- demonstrating Breeze 2's relatively weaker financial position. In addition, the DSRA in Breeze 2 remains partially funded. In November 2009 -- a particularly weak wind year -- the reduction in revenue resulted in Breeze 2's need to draw EUR2.2 million on the class A DSRA leaving approximately EUR10.9 million available for future withdrawals. In contrast, Breeze 3's class A DSRA remains fully funded despite experiencing a similar decline in wind yield during the period. Due to the class A DSRA's structural subordination to class B debt service Breeze's class A debt reserve will not be replenished as long as class B deferrals remain outstanding. The amount currently deferred on class B is EUR11.7 million and Fitch does not expect that the borrower will be in the position to pay back such amount, nor possible future additional deferred amounts, unless energy production in the future consistently and materially exceeds the historical average. Fitch is aware that Breeze 2 is intending to improve the cash flows available at November payment dates by anticipating the payment of operating and maintenance costs from the summer period to the winter period. The company's pro-active management of operations may prove helpful in mitigating the risk of future cost pressures stemming from the increasing age of the turbines, the expiry of manufacturer warranties and the weak financial standing of maintenance providers. The Stable Outlook reflects the German parliament's resolution regarding the over-indebtedness provision under the German insolvency law on the November 9, 2012. This removes the risk that the Breeze 2 borrower may be forced into insolvency due to formal balance sheet over-indebtedness. Fitch considers that further downside risk exists for class A notes as a result of weak wind conditions, a decline in availability beyond expectations or high cost increases reducing cash available for debt service at the November payment date leading to drawings on the class A DSRA. A positive rating action for class A could be the result of several years of strong wind yield allowing class B deferrals to be repaid and class A DSRA to be replenished and a demonstration of stable cost and availability profile despite the aging of the turbines. Breeze 2 is a Luxembourg special purpose vehicle that issued three classes of notes on May 8, 2006 for an aggregate issuance amount of EUR470 million to finance the acquisition and completion of a portfolio of wind farms located in Germany and France, as well as establishing various reserve accounts. The notes are scheduled to be repaid from the cash flow generated by the sale of the energy produced by the wind farms, mainly under regulated tariffs. GEO TRAVEL: S&P Cuts Long-Term Corporate Credit Rating to 'B' ------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term corporate credit rating on online travel agent Geo Travel Finance SCA Luxembourg (Odigeo) to 'B' from 'B+'. "We revised the outlook to negative from stable," S&P said. "At the same time, we lowered our issue rating on the group's senior secured bank facilities to 'B+' from 'BB-'. The recovery rating is unchanged at '2', indicating our expectations that lenders would receive substantial (70%-90%) recovery in the event of a payment default," S&P said. "We also lowered our issue rating on Odigeo's senior unsecured notes to 'CCC+' from 'B-'. The recovery rating is unchanged at '6', indicating our expectation of negligible (0%-10%) recovery in the event of a payment default," S&P said. "The downgrade and outlook revision reflect our view that Odigeo's EBITDA growth will likely be significantly lower than we expected over the coming quarters. We base our view on the group's weak performance in the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2013 (fiscal 2013), owing to deteriorating economic conditions in Europe and continued pressure on the travel sector. We don't expect any major improvement in the difficult operating environment over 2013," S&P said. "Our revised forecasts lead us to expect the group's covenant headroom to tighten below 15% by fiscal year-end 2013, and potentially further contract the following year. We have therefore revised downward our assessment of Odigeo's liquidity to 'less than adequate' from 'adequate,'" S&P said. "We still believe the company's market position and the long-term prospects for the online travel agent (OTA) sector remain sound. However, under our revised base-case scenario for fiscal 2013, we now expect net revenue growth in the low- to mid-single digits, compared with our previous mid- to high-single digits forecast. We further expect EBITDA growth to remain either flat or slightly negative, on the back of anticipated margin contraction by more than 100 basis points on fiscal 2012. We expect personnel costs to be one of the drivers of this margin contraction, in view of the company's strategy to expand its business. We also anticipate a rise in marketing expenses compared with our initial estimates, to support revenue growth and maintain current market shares on the back of ongoing tough competition. This should place further pressure on margins, in our view. As a result, if Odigeo's operating performance doesn't materially improve, we believe covenant headroom could tighten below our 15% threshold for fiscal 2013, and further contract in fiscal 2014 to less than 10%. This would also be driven by the significant covenant step- up embedded in the senior bank documentation," S&P said. "In addition, we think it unlikely that Odigeo will deleverage in line with our previous expectations to levels that we consider commensurate with a 'B+' rating. At fiscal year-end 2012, Odigeo's Standard & Poor's adjusted leverage ratio--including the subordinated shareholder convertible bonds--was 6.1x (or 4.9x excluding the bonds). We believe that the group isn't likely to meet our expectation of a leverage ratio decreasing to 5.5x (including the subordinated convertible shareholder bonds) by fiscal year-end 2013, considering our revised forecasts and based on first-half results. We now forecast that Odigeo's adjusted leverage ratio (including the subordinated convertible shareholder bonds) will likely increase to about 6.3x (or 4.9x excluding the bonds) by fiscal year-end 2013. The negative outlook reflects our revised forecasts of stalling EBITDA growth over the next 12 to 18 months, owing to challenging economic conditions in Odigeo's main markets, which could place an additional strain on the group's tightening covenant headroom," S&P said. "We could lower the ratings if Odigeo's operating performance deteriorated further than we currently anticipate under our revised base-case scenario. For example, if the group were unable to increase its EBITDA above EUR110 million in fiscal 2014, resulting in the likelihood of further covenant tightening. Similarly, downward rating pressure could arise if free operating cash flow falls considerably short of our expectations," S&P said. "We could revise the outlook to stable if we revised our assessment of Odigeo's liquidity to 'adequate' from 'less than adequate,' which would depend on headroom under its financial covenants of at least 15% on a sustainable basis," S&P said. =========== P O L A N D =========== CENTRAL EUROPEAN: Investor Concerned Over Company's Condition ------------------------------------------------------------- Mark Kaufman and W&L Enterprises Ltd, owning approximately 9.5% of Central European Distribution Corporation's outstanding common stock, sent a letter to the members of the Board of Directors of the CEDC. According to Mr. Kaufman, he shared Roustam Tariko's profound concern and deep frustration regarding the financial and operating condition of CEDC. Mr. Tariko is the beneficial owner of approximately 19.5% of CEDC's outstanding common stock. "Over the past year, CEDC has suffered a number of stunning and inexcusable setbacks, including (1) having to restate financial statements because of accounting errors, (2) failing to establish any semblance of long-term leadership following the resignation of its Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President, (3) missing two consecutive filing deadlines for its Form 10-Qs, (4) violating a NASDAQ listing rule, (5) undergoing the suspension of trading of its shares on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, (6) disclosing potentially serious FCPA violations, and (7) failing to solve a liquidity crisis that may result in a default under the Company's indebtedness," Mr. Kaufman wrote. ". . . [A]s CEDC continues to lurch from crisis to crisis under your leadership (or lack thereof), I . . . urge you in the strongest terms to adopt a new attitude towards stewardship of the company, to make an immediate change in the composition of CEDC's board, and to engage directly with CEDC's major stockholders," stated Mr. Kaufman. A copy of the letter is available at http://is.gd/0dajK4 About CEDC Mt. Laurel, New Jersey-based Central European Distribution Corporation is one of the world's largest vodka producers and Central and Eastern Europe's largest integrated spirit beverages business with its primary operations in Poland, Russia and Hungary. Ernst & Young Audit sp. z o.o., in Warsaw, Poland, expressed substantial doubt about Central European's ability to continue as a going concern, following the Company's results for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2011. The independent auditors noted that certain of the Company's credit and factoring facilities are coming due in 2012 and will need to be renewed to manage its working capital needs. The Company's balance sheet at June 30, 2012, showed US$1.86 billion in total assets, US$1.68 billion in total liabilities, US$29.55 million in temporary equity, and U$$158.10 million in total stockholders' equity. Liquidity Certain credit and factoring facilities are coming due in 2012, which the Company expects to renew. Furthermore, the Company's Convertible Senior Notes are due on March 15, 2013. The Company's current cash on hand, estimated cash from operations and available credit facilities will not be sufficient to make the repayment of principal on the Convertible Notes and, unless the transaction with Russian Standard Corporation is completed the Company may default on them. The Company's cash flow forecasts include the assumption that certain credit and factoring facilities that are coming due in 2012 will be renewed to manage working capital needs. Moreover, the Company had a net loss and significant impairment charges in 2011 and current liabilities exceed current assets at June 30, 2012. These conditions raise substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern. The transaction with Russian Standard Corporation is subject to certain risks, including shareholder approval which may not be obtained. The Company's 2012 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, which was postponed due to the need to restate the Company's financial statements, is expected to be held as soon as practicable. The Company believes that if the transaction is completed as scheduled, the Convertible Notes will be repaid by their maturity date, which would substantially reduce doubts about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern. * * * As reported by the TCR on Aug. 10, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services kept on CreditWatch with negative implications its 'CCC+' long-term corporate credit rating on U.S.-based Central European Distribution Corp. (CEDC), the parent company of Poland-based vodka manufacturer CEDC International sp. z o.o. "The CreditWatch status reflects our view that uncertainties remain related to CEDC's ongoing accounting review and that CEDC's liquidity could further and substantially weaken if there was a breach of covenants which could lead to the acceleration of the payment of the 2016 notes, upon receipt of a written notice of 25% or more of the noteholders," S&P said. In the Oct. 9, 2012, edition of the TCR, Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the corporate family rating (CFR) and probability of default rating (PDR) of Central European Distribution Corporation (CEDC) to Caa2 from Caa1. "The downgrade reflects delays in CEDC securing adequate financing to repay its US$310 million of convertible notes due March 2013 which are increasing Moody's concerns that the definitive agreement for a strategic alliance between CEDC and Russian Standard Corporation (Russian Standard) might not conclude at the current terms," says Paolo Leschiutta, a Moody's Vice President - Senior Credit Officer and lead analyst for CEDC. CENTRAL EUROPEAN: S&P Cuts Corporate Credit Rating to 'CCC' ----------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered to 'CCC' from 'CCC+' its long-term corporate credit rating on U.S.-based Central European Distribution Corp. (CEDC), the parent company of Poland- based vodka manufacturer CEDC International sp. z o.o. "At the same time, we lowered the issue rating on CEDC's senior secured notes to 'CCC' from 'CCC+' and we lowered the issue rating on the senior unsecured notes to 'CC' from 'CCC-'," S&P said. "All ratings remain on CreditWatch Negative where we originally placed them on June 8, 2012," S&P said. "The downgrade reflects our view that there are increasing uncertainties regarding the refinancing of CEDC's convertible notes due March 15, 2013. We understand the agreement that CEDC signed in April 2012 with Russian Standard Corporation (Russian Standard) to back the refinancing of its US$310 million convertible notes (of which about US$270 million was outstanding at the end of June 2012) is under re-negotiation," S&P said. "The accounting review of the financial statements of CEDC, announced on June 4, 2012, has concluded with restatements which exceeded the threshold set in the refinancing agreement with Russian Standard. In addition, CEDC filed its second-quarter 2012 results with some delay -- on Oct. 9, 2012 -- but then announced on Nov. 10, 2012, that these results could no longer be relied on. CEDC also did not file its third-quarter 2012 results on time on Nov. 9, 2012, and has announced that it currently targets filing on Nov. 19, 2012," S&P said. "These three events constitute a breach of some of the clauses of the refinancing agreement. Therefore, at this stage, the refinancing agreement does not hold, and, as per management information, negotiations between CEDC and Russian Standard are ongoing," S&P said. "In our opinion, CEDC's persistent governance issues and material internal control weaknesses are putting significant pressure on its liquidity position. The recent events could lead to a failure in the refinancing of the 2013 convertible notes, since at this stage we understand that Russian Standard has no obligation to support the refinancing. Without the support from Russian Standard, we think that CEDC will likely default on these notes at maturity on March 15, 2013. We believe that CEDC's current poor operating performance and weak standing in capital markets will prevent the group from either repaying or refinancing the notes," S&P said. "CEDC's performance and metrics have weakened materially over the past three years. EBITDA shrunk to $65 million in 2011 from more than $200 million a few years ago, and the ratio of Standard & Poor's adjusted debt to EBITDA exceeded 18x at the end of 2011, and funds from operations (FFO) turned negative," S&P said. "We see limited upside in the future, because vodka markets are tough in Poland and Russia. Consumption is declining, while, at the same time, customers switch from local vodkas (which is the segment in which CEDC operates) to international spirits. In Russia, CEDC's biggest market, there have been two excise duty increases so far in 2012, and another 30% hike is scheduled for Jan. 1, 2013. Excise duty increases more negatively affect the local and typically cheaper vodkas. We therefore anticipate a significant negative volume impact on CEDC's Russian activities in the future," S&P said. "The CreditWatch negative reflects our view that persistent weaknesses in internal control and governance could render the current negotiations on the refinancing of the looming convertible notes unsuccessful. This would most likely lead to CEDC's defaulting at maturity of the convertible notes on March 15, 2013," S&P said. "We will continue to closely monitor CEDC's progress on the refinancing of the convertible notes," S&P said. CIECH GROUP: Moody's Rates New Senior Secured Notes '(P)B2' ----------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service assigned a provisional (P)B2 rating to the new EUR225 million of Senior Secured Notes to be issued by Ciech Group Financing AB and due in 2019. Concurrently, Moody's also assigned a (P)B2 corporate family rating (CFR) and probability of default rating (PDR) to Ciech SA. The notes are guaranteed by Ciech SA (Ciech) and certain of its subsidiaries and benefit from a security package that covers over 85% of total group assets. The outlook on all ratings is stable. Moody's has assigned the provisional ratings pending the completion of the refinancing transaction. Moody's issues provisional ratings in advance of the final sale of securities and these reflect Moody's credit opinion regarding the transaction only. Upon a conclusive review of the final documentation Moody's will endeavor to assign definitive ratings. A definitive rating may differ from a provisional rating. Ratings Rationale Ciech Group Financing AB is issuing the notes, together with PLN382 million of Polish Zloty notes and a PLN100 million revolving credit facility, to refinance Ciech's existing indebtedness. The assigned (P)B2 rating reflects the pari passu ranking of the notes with the Polish Zloty notes and behind the super-priority revolving credit facility. The (P)B2 CFR factors in Ciech's solid position as the largest regional producer of soda ash in Central Europe with production facilities in Poland, Germany and Romania. Moody's positively notes Ciech's low-cost production capabilities, as well as the improved energy efficiency at the company's Polish facilities, following recent investments. The company's competitive position is supported by established supply relationships with leading glass producers in the region and high transportation costs, relative to the cost of production, which mitigate competitive pressures from foreign suppliers and support solid operating margins. However, the rating also recognizes risks associated with the on-going divestment program of sizable non-core businesses, that have significantly weaker operating and credit characteristics, and Ciech's exposure to cyclical end markets such as construction. Finally, the rating reflects the elevated leverage and moderate historical operating cash flows although balanced by the expectation that Ciech will continue to focus on debt reduction and improving cash flow generation. Ciech operates four soda ash and baking soda production facilities located in Poland (2), Germany (1) and Romania (1) making it the second-largest producer of soda ash in Europe by capacity, after Solvay SA (Baa1 negative) and the largest producer in Central Europe. Transportation costs can be substantial and customers and suppliers are typically located in close proximity to ensure cost-efficient production, thereby also providing some barriers to entry. Soda ash is primarily used in the production of glass for construction, automotive and packaging end markets. Other applications include detergents and soaps. Products in Ciech's non-core business find their way into a variety of end markets including paint, coatings or furniture. As such Ciech is exposed to cyclicality, mitigated to a degree by a diversified customer base and strong regional competitive positions in its core soda business. The soda ash market has seen some consolidation and recovered following a downturn in 2009-10. It is expected to remain on a modest growth trajectory (more so in Central Europe). The market balance, however, remains sensitive to additional supply from lower-cost Turkish producers that run trona-based production processes. The rating assumes limited, if any, near-term pressure on Ciech. Energy represents the largest cost factor for soda ash production, along other raw materials, such as limestone, brine and anthracite. Ciech procures these mostly under long-term contracts with pre-defined pricing formulas and benefits from backwards integration into limestone, brine and energy (under a sale and leaseback arrangement) at its German facility and into energy at its Polish facilities. From 2013, Ciech will need to procure emission certificates, particularly for its coal-fired Polish facilities, which will require continued focus on energy efficiency and environmental compliance. Ciech retains a portfolio of non-core businesses including Organic, Agrochemicals and Silicates & Glass, which together accounted for 17% of company-adjusted EBITDA for the last twelve months to September 2012. While Ciech is actively restructuring and divesting these businesses, substantial execution risk exists as the company may not find interested parties, suffer cost overruns or incur unforeseen liabilities. In this context, Moody's would particularly expect the recent divestment and closure of Zachem to be executed as planned and within budget. Free cash flow (FCF) generation has been somewhat limited given moderate historical EBITDA/cash flow conversion, a high degree of working capital volatility and significant capital expenditure (capex). Moody's expects cash flow conversion to gradually improve as Ciech divests low-margin businesses and reduces restructuring costs while capex spending should reduce in 2013 following the completion of investment projects. However, Ciech is expected to visibly invest from 2014 on to improve energy efficiency at its Polish facilities. The company remains leveraged following the transaction with estimated adjusted Debt/EBITDA just below 4.0x, pro-forma, for the last twelve months to September 2012. However, Moody's also recognizes the debt reduction achieved by Ciech over the past three years and expects the company to maintain its focus on reducing leverage ahead of shareholder distributions. Ciech falls under Moody's Government-Related Issuers: Methodology Update, published July 2010, given the Polish government's (37.9%) partial ownership of the company. As a result, Moody's overlays the company's underlying credit strength with its joint default analysis for government-related issuers (GRIs). In this context, the assessment of Support is Low reflecting the relative independence of Ciech in managing its operations. It also recognizes the government's endorsement of Ciech's strategy, which is intended to over time maximize the value of the company and reflects the government's long-term aim to realise the monetary value of its stake. The Dependency assessment of Low reflects Ciech's relatively diversified revenue base with only 37% of 2011 revenues generated in Poland and minimal financial linkages with the government. As a result, the rating does not factor in explicit uplift to the b2 baseline credit assessment and would also not be affected if the government were to reduce its ownership. Moody's views Ciech's liquidity as adequate. As of September 2012, the company had cash balances of PLN161 million and, following the refinancing, will have an undrawn revolving credit facility of PLN100 million. In addition, Ciech will receive EUR43 million from the sale of certain assets of its subsidiary Zachem to BASF in the first half of 2013 following, amongst others, regulatory approval. This should be sufficient to compensate for swings in working capital and temporary capex peaks. The stable outlook reflects Moody's expectation that Ciech will successfully execute the restructuring and divestment of its non- core businesses over time and regain its focus on the core soda ash business while maintaining adequate liquidity. What Could Change The Rating Up/Down Positive rating pressure could develop if Ciech deleverages further, supported by a successful execution of the restructuring and divestment process, so that adjusted Debt/EBITDA decreases below 3x and FCF/Debt increases above 5%. Conversely, negative rating pressure could develop if any deviations from Moody's outlined expectations occur, such as a delay in the divestment process or a change in the competitive dynamics of the soda business, leading to weaker operating performance, with adjusted Debt/EBITDA reaching 4.5x and/or free cash flow turning negative; or any liquidity pressures becoming apparent. The principal methodology used in rating Ciech SA and Ciech Group Financing AB was the Global Chemical Industry Methodology published in December 2009. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009 and the Government-Related Issuers: Methodology Update published in July 2010. Ciech SA, headquartered in Poland, is Europe's second-largest soda ash producer, with a focus on Poland, Germany and Central Europe. It also operates a number of non-core chemical businesses that represent 17% of group EBITDA for the last twelve months to September 2012. For the same period, the company generated revenue and normalized EBITDA of PLN4.4 billion and PLN409 million, respectively. Ciech has been listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange since 2005 and its largest shareholder as of 29 August 2012 was the Polish State Treasury (37.9%). CIECH SA: S&P Assigns Prelim. 'B' Corporate Credit Rating --------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services assigned its preliminary 'B' long-term corporate credit rating to Poland-headquartered soda ash producer Ciech S.A. The outlook is stable. "At the same time, we assigned our preliminary 'B' issue rating to Ciech's EUR225 million senior secured notes. We are not rating the company's Polish zloty (PLN) 382.3 million domestic notes and PLN100 million revolving credit facility (RCF) due 2015," S&P said. "The issue rating on the EUR225 million notes is based on draft documentation and is subject to our review of the final terms and conditions. Any change to the final terms and conditions could affect the ratings," S&P said. "The preliminary ratings on Ciech reflect the company's capital structure pro forma for the placement of the proposed EUR225 million and PLN382.3 million senior secured notes. Ciech will use the funds to repay its existing debt. The preliminary ratings also reflect our assessment of Ciech's business risk profile as 'weak' and its financial risk profile as 'aggressive,'" S&P said. S&P's preliminary corporate credit rating on Ciech reflects its stand-alone credit profile of 'b+', without any uplift for extraordinary support from the government of the Republic of Poland (foreign currency A-/Stable/A-2, local currency A/Stable/A-1). Although the Polish government owns 39% of Ciech, we view the likelihood of it providing timely and sufficient extraordinary support to Ciech in the event of financial distress as 'low,' as per our criteria on government-related entities. S&P based its view of a 'low' likelihood of support on its assessment of Ciech's: -- 'Limited' role for the Polish government, reflecting S&P's view of Ciech's operations as non-strategic. Our view is underpinned by the privatization plan that the Polish Ministry of Treasury published in March 2012, in which Ciech was not included in the state's portfolio of strategic companies. -- 'Limited' link with the government because S&P understands that the government may dispose of its stake in Ciech in the near term. In addition, there is a lack of a formal mechanism for the government to provide timely extraordinary support to Ciech. That said, the Polish government participated in Ciech's 2011 capital increase. "In our view, Ciech's liquidity will remain 'adequate' post refinancing and its soda ash business will continue to perform satisfactorily in the fourth quarter of 2012 and in 2013, notwithstanding the currently difficult economic climate in Europe. We view an adjusted ratio of debt to EBITDA of up to 5x as commensurate with the current rating," S&P said. "Ratings upside could arise in 2013 if Ciech maintains satisfactory profits in the soda ash business and achieves adjusted debt to EBITDA of less than 4x on a sustainable basis. Notably, an upgrade depends on Ciech effectively executing its strategy of restructuring, disposing of non-core activities, and reducing capex, which are key to our projection of the company deleveraging in 2013," S&P said. "Rating downside could arise if Ciech was unable to deleverage, leading to adjusted debt to EBITDA of more than 5x. We envisage that this could occur if margins in Ciech's soda ash business were to deteriorate unexpectedly as a result of new capacity additions and/or its inability to dispose of underperforming activities," S&P said. =========== R U S S I A =========== RUSSIAN AGRICULTURAL: Fitch Puts 'B' Viability Rating on RWN ------------------------------------------------------------ Fitch Ratings has placed Russian Agricultural Bank (RusAg) on Rating Watch Negative (RWN). The agency expects that any downgrade of RusAg's 'BBB' Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) is likely to be limited to one notch. RATING ACTION RATIONALE, DRIVERS AND SENSITIVITIES: VIABILITY RATING The RWN on RusAg's 'b' Viability Rating (VR) reflects Fitch's concerns about the bank's current asset quality and capital positions. These concerns are based on: i) the absence of any disclosures from the bank on aggregate portfolio asset quality metrics beyond end-2011; ii) the apparently very weak quality of the bank's largest loans at end-Q312; iii) measures reportedly planned and being discussed within the Russian government to support the bank's capital, which in Fitch's view are likely to be driven primarily by asset quality deterioration, and iv) considerable uncertainty about whether the planned equity injection will be sufficient to support the bank's solvency. The RWN also takes into account Fitch's long-stated concerns about potential weaknesses in the bank's asset quality, and the negative trends in reported loan impairment ratios up to end- 2011. The limited information available to Fitch suggests that asset quality may currently be significantly weaker than reported at end-2011 (non-performing loans 12%, restructured 19%). At end- Q312, the largest 15 impaired loans (with payments overdue by 90 days or more) were all big enough to be among the largest 20 exposures in the overall portfolio (as of Q212), suggesting a high proportion of impairment at the top end of the book. However, the largest 20 loans accounted for a moderate 10% of the total portfolio, making it difficult to extrapolate overall portfolio quality from this sample with certainty. At end-October 2012, RusAg's regulatory capital ratio was a moderate 13.3%, meaning that the bank could have increased impairment reserves to only 14% of the portfolio (from the actual level of 10%) before breaching the minimum 10% capital ratio requirement. Fitch estimates that the reportedly planned equity injection of RUB40 billion, to be made before end-2012, would create capacity for the bank to increase reserves to approximately 18% of the portfolio. However, this may still prove to be insufficient relative to the level of loan impairment. The VR could be downgraded if significant additional asset quality deterioration, relative to previously reported levels, is confirmed. If the capital support required to sustain the bank's solvency is substantial relative to the bank's current equity of RUB140bn, the VR could be downgraded to 'f', indicating that the bank has failed. If the scale of asset quality deterioration turns out to be moderate, and the planned equity injection is sufficient to address this, downward pressure on the VR will be reduced. RATING ACTION RATIONALE, DRIVERS AND SENSITIVITIES: IDRS, SUPPORT RATINGS, DEBT RATINGS The RWN on RusAg's IDRs, Support Rating and debt ratings reflect considerable uncertainty about whether the reported equity injection will be sufficient to support RusAg's solvency, and a lack of clarity about what other measures the Russian authorities may take to assist the bank. However, Fitch's base case expectation is that sufficient support will ultimately be forthcoming, and that the bank's problems will be addressed without creditors incurring losses. RusAg's 'BBB' Long-Term IDRs are currently aligned with the Russian sovereign, and reflect Fitch's view that the bank will likely be supported by the Russian authorities in case of need. This reflects the bank's full government ownership, its policy role, the track record of government support to date and the moderate size of RusAg's balance sheet relative to the government's available financial resources. The reported RUB40 billion equity injection, for which an amendment would be made to the 2012 federal budget, suggests that the Russian authorities intend to provide support to the bank. Other potential support measures, including further equity injections and purchases of some of the bank's impaired loans by other state-controlled entities, have reportedly also been discussed at government level. However, there is currently little clarity as to how, in what amount, and in what timeframe the authorities are prepared to support the bank, beyond the initial equity injection. Any prolonged delay in the provision of necessary support, or the adoption of recapitalization measures which Fitch deems insufficient, could result in downward pressure on the IDRs, although any downgrade would likely be limited to one notch to 'BBB-'. A downgrade to sub-investment grade would only be considered if there was a more significant weakening of government support for the bank and/or any clear signs that creditors may suffer losses as part of measures to strengthen the bank's capitalization. Fitch currently views such scenarios as unlikely. If the Russian authorities announce measures to recapitalize RusAg which are clearly sufficient relative to the bank's asset quality problems, this would help support the ratings at their current levels. More broadly, Fitch will continue to review the Russian government's support for state-owned banks, and whether this support continues to be sufficiently strong to warrant aligning the ratings of the banks with the Russian sovereign. The 'BBB' ratings of state-owned JSC VTB Bank and Vnesheconombank, like RusAg, are driven by potential government support. However, the 'BBB' rating of Sberbank of Russia is driven by its intrinsic strength, reflected in its 'bbb' Viability Rating, and hence its IDRs are not dependent on Fitch's view of state support. Fitch has placed the following ratings of RusAg on RWN: -- Long-term IDR 'BBB' -- Short-term IDR 'F3' -- Local currency Long-term IDR 'BBB' -- Viability Rating 'b' -- National Long-term rating 'AAA(rus)' -- Support Rating '2' -- Support Rating Floor 'BBB' -- Senior unsecured Long-Term Rating 'BBB' -- Senior unsecured Short-Term Rating 'F3' -- Senior unsecured National Long-Term Rating 'AAA(rus)' -- Subordinated debt rating 'BBB-' * KRASNODAR REGION: Fitch Rates RUB5.6-Bil. Domestic Bond 'BB+' --------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has assigned Krasnodar Region's RUB5.6 billion domestic bond issue, due on November 9, 2017, within a total registered bond issue (ISIN - RU000A0JTBA3) of RUB12 billion a Long-term local currency rating of 'BB+' and a National Long-term rating of 'AA(rus)'. The region has Long-term local and foreign currency ratings of 'BB+' and a National Long-term rating of 'AA(rus)'. The Long- term ratings have Stable Outlooks. The issuer's Short-term foreign currency rating is 'B'. The bond issue has fixed-rate step-down coupons. The initial coupon was set at 8.95% on November 15, 2012. The principal will be amortized by 30% of the initial bond issue value in May 2014 and May 2015 and by 10% of the initial bond issue value in November 2015, May 2016, November 2016 and November 2017. The proceeds from the bond issue will be used to refinance maturing debt and to fund the region's capital expenditure. ===================================== S E R B I A & M O N T E N E G R O ===================================== * SERBIA: Fitch Assigns 'BB-' Rating to US$750-Mil. Eurobond ------------------------------------------------------------ Fitch Ratings has assigned Serbia's US$750 million Eurobond, due November 21, 2017, a 'BB-' rating. The Eurobond has a coupon rate of 5.25%. The rating is in line with Serbia's Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR), which has a Negative Outlook. The Negative Outlook reflects the deterioration in the country's fiscal and external financing position alongside likely weak economic growth. ========= S P A I N ========= FONCAIXA FTGENCAT: Moody's Cuts Ratings on 2 Note Classes to Caa1 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the ratings of nine classes of notes in three Spanish SME ABS transactions (FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 3, FTA, FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 4, FTA and FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 5, FTA) originated by Caixabank (Baa3/P-3) due to insufficient credit enhancement levels. At the same time, Moody's confirmed the ratings of three classes of notes. The rating action concludes the review initiated by Moody's on July 2, 2012. A detailed list of affected ratings is available toward the end of this press release. Ratings Rationale "We initially placed the notes on review because of the application of the Spanish country ceiling, the need to assess counterparty risk and the reassessment of needed credit enhancement levels, in the context of increased volatility," says Ludovic Thebault, a Moody's analyst and lead analyst for the issuers. "Following our review, the downgrades reflect insufficient levels of credit enhancement in the notes, given our negative forecast for Spanish SME performance and our severe downside scenarios for performance," adds Mr. Thebault. As transaction performance and pool characteristics have remained stable since the rating agency's portfolio assumptions revision in June 2012, Moody's has maintained its default assumptions at 13.5%, 11% and 13.4%, respectively, of the portfolio current balance for the respective three transactions. However, Moody's has decreased its recovery rate assumptions for all three deals to a 55% fixed recovery rate from a 65% stochastic recovery rate. This change reflects the ongoing and increasing difficulty in liquidating the real estate collateral of the loans backed by a mortgage guarantee. Moody's has also increased volatility levels in its default scenarios for all three transactions. To reflect the instability and deteriorating situation in Spain, the rating agency has increased its volatility assumptions to 90%, 114% and 95%, respectively. Despite lower recovery and higher volatility expectations for the transactions, Moody's confirmed the ratings of the Class A(G) notes of FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 3, the Class D notes of FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 4 and the Class A(S) notes of FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 5 as credit enhancement levels were sufficient to off-set the lower recovery rate and higher volatility assumptions. In particular, the Class A(S) notes of FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 5 currently represent 6% of the total pool balance and are currently amortizing senior to the other tranches. Moody's believes that it is extremely unlikely that the Class A(S) notes will amortize pro rata with the Class A(G) notes, given the distance to the pro rata trigger and the amortization speed of the Class A(S) notes -- PERFORMANCE Historically, all three transactions have generally performed better than Moody's Spanish SME delinquency index, and performance has shown signs of stabilization over the last months. Since the June 2012 review, delinquency levels in all three transactions have remained below the Spanish index. Delinquencies 90+ days now stand at 2.7% of current pool balance in FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 3, 2% in FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 4, and 3% in FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 5, versus 2.9%, 1.9% and 2.7%, respectively, in May 2012. -- SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Moody's analyzed various sensitivities of default rate and volatility levels to test the robustness of its revised ratings. In particular, if the revised levels of volatility were to be increased by a further 19% (to 107.5%, 135.6% and 113.1%, respectively), the rating of the senior tranche in each of the three deals would remain unchanged. As such, Moody's analysis encompasses the assessment of stressed scenarios. -- OPERATIONAL AND COUNTERPARTY RISK Since Moody's last rating action on 2 July 2012, the issuer accounts were transferred to Barclays Bank PLC (A2/P-1) from Caixabank, but Caixabank (Baa3/P-3) has remained swap counterparty in all three transactions. The swaps provide significant support to the notes by guaranteeing excess spread. A downgrade of Caixabank may negatively affect the ratings of the notes should the bank remain swap counterparty. On August 21, 2012, Moody's released a Request for Comment seeking market feedback on proposed adjustments to its modelling assumptions. These adjustments are designed to account for the impact of rapid and significant country credit deterioration on structured finance transactions. If the adjusted approach is implemented as proposed, the rating of the notes affected by the rating action should not be negatively affected. Methodologies The methodologies used in these ratings were Moody's Approach to Rating CDOs of SMEs in Europe published in February 2007, Refining the ABS SME Approach: Moody's Probability of Default assumptions in the rating analysis of granular Small and Mid- sized Enterprise portfolios in EMEA published in March 2009, and Moody's Approach to Rating Granular SME Transactions in Europe, Middle East and Africa published in June 2007. Moody's used its excel-based cash flow model, Moody's ABSROM(TM), as part of its quantitative analysis of the transaction. Moody's ABSROM(TM) model enables users to model various features of a standard European ABS transaction including: (i) the specifics of the default distribution of the assets, their portfolio amortization profile, yield or recoveries; and (ii) the specific priority of payments, triggers, swaps and reserve funds on the liability side of the ABS structure. Moody's ABSROM(TM) User Guide is available on Moody's website and covers the model's functionality as well as providing a comprehensive index of the user inputs and outputs. RATINGS LIST Issuer: FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 3 Fondo de Titulizacion de Activos EUR449.3M A(G) Notes, Confirmed at A3 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 Downgraded to A3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade EUR10.7M B Notes, Downgraded to Ba1 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 A3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade EUR7.8M C Notes, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 Ba2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade EUR6.5M D Notes, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 B3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade Issuer: FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 4 Fondo de Titulizacion de Activos EUR326M A (G) Notes, Downgraded to Baa1 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 Downgraded to A3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade EUR9.6M B Notes, Downgraded to Ba3 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 Baa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade EUR7.2M C Notes, Downgraded to B2 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 Ba2 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade EUR6M D Notes, Confirmed at Caa1 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 Caa1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade Issuer: FONCAIXA FTGENCAT 5 Fondo de Titulizacion de Activos EUR513.1M A (S) Notes, Confirmed at A3 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 Downgraded to A3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade EUR449.4M A (G) Notes, Downgraded to Baa2 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 Downgraded to A3 (sf) and Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade EUR21M B Notes, Downgraded to B1 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 Ba1 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade EUR16.5M C Notes, Downgraded to Caa1 (sf); previously on Jul 2, 2012 B3 (sf) Placed Under Review for Possible Downgrade FTPYME BANCAJA 3: S&P Raises Rating on Class C Notes to 'BB' ------------------------------------------------------------ Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised its credit ratings on FTPYME Bancaja 3, Fondo de Titulizacion de Activos' (FTPYME Bancaja 3's) class B and C notes. "At the same time, we have affirmed our ratings on FTPYME Bancaja 3's A3(G) and D notes," S&P said. "The rating actions follow our assessment of the transaction's performance since our previous review of the underlying portfolio's credit quality and capital structure in June 2011. We have also applied our 2012 counterparty criteria, our criteria for rating European small and midsize enterprise (SME) securitizations, and our nonsovereign ratings criteria to this transaction," S&P said. "We have performed our credit and cash flow analysis using data from the September 2012 trustee report. We have observed further amortization of the class A3(G) notes in accordance with the transaction documents. Based on the latest investor report, the current pool factor has decreased to 6.52% compared with 9.64% in June 2011. This has resulted in higher subordination for the class A3(G), B, C, and D notes," S&P said. "We have also observed a small increase to 1.58% from 1.38% in cumulative defaults (which the transaction documents define as loans in arrears for more than 18 months), and higher regional concentration risk," S&P said. "The number of loans has reduced to 421 from 2,455 at closing in 2004, with the top 10 obligors accounting for 25.24% of the outstanding pool balance. We have taken this increased concentration risk into account in our revised default assumptions," S&P said. "Geographically, obligors are located across 14 regions of Spain. However, Valencia still accounts for about 55% of the outstanding balance, which reflects FTPYME Bancaja 3's historical location and origination activities," S&P said. "The reserve fund now totals EUR1.4 million, which is less than the required level of EUR5 million under the transaction documents," S&P said. "We subjected the capital structure to our cash flow analysis, based on the methodology and assumptions outlined in our 2009 European SMEs criteria. We used the reported portfolio balance that we considered to be performing, the reserve fund balance, and the current weighted-average coupon. We also incorporated our revised default and recovery rate assumptions into our cash flow model, which we consider to be appropriate in light of the transaction's past performance and Spain's current difficult market conditions. We incorporated various cash flow stress scenarios using various default patterns, interest rate scenarios, and recovery timings," S&P said. "In our analysis, we also assumed a stressed commingling loss level of monthly interest and principal because the interest and principal collections are transferred to the issuer's account only once a month," S&P said. "In our view, the increased credit enhancement due to the amortization of the notes has helped to mitigate the risk of higher defaults for the class A3(G) and B notes. We have also observed a significant increase in available credit enhancement for the class C notes, and have therefore raised to 'BB (sf)' from 'B (sf)' our rating on this class of notes," S&P said. "The effect of higher defaults, however, will make full repayment of the class D notes unlikely because the current credit enhancement for this class of notes is not commensurate with a higher rating. We have therefore affirmed our 'CCC (sf)' rating on the class D notes," S&P said. "Although the results of our cash flow analysis suggest higher ratings for the class A3(G) and B notes, we have affirmed our 'AA- (sf)' rating on the class A3(G) notes and raised to 'AA- (sf)' our rating on the class B notes as a result of the application of our nonsovereign ratings criteria. Under these criteria, the highest rating we would assign to a structured finance transaction is six notches above the investment-grade rating on the country in which the securitized assets are located. Since our rating on Spain is currently 'BBB-/A-3' with a negative outlook, the maximum rating achievable in this transaction is 'AA- (sf)'," S&P said. "The transaction benefits from an interest-rate swap providing a level of excess spread of 0.87% of the performing balance of the loans. However, we do not give any credit to the swap in this transaction as the swap counterparty is Caja de Ahorros de Valencia, Castellon y Alicante (Bancaja), on which we withdrew our rating in December 2008. Since no substitution of the swap provider has taken place since, Bancaja became an ineligible swap provider at the end of the remedy period that followed the rating withdrawal," S&P said. FTPYME Bancaja 3 closed in October 2004 and is collateralized by loans granted to Spanish SMEs originated by Bancaja. STANDARD & POOR'S 17G-7 DISCLOSURE REPORT SEC Rule 17g-7 requires an NRSRO, for any report accompanying a credit rating relating to an asset-backed security as defined in the Rule, to include a description of the representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors and a description of how they differ from the representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms in issuances of similar securities. The Standard & Poor's 17g-7 Disclosure Report included in this credit rating report is available at: http://standardandpoorsdisclosure-17g7.com RATINGS LIST Class Rating To From FTPYME Bancaja 3, Fondo de Titulizacion de Activos EUR900 Million Floating-Rate Notes Ratings Raised B AA- (sf) A- (sf) C BB (sf) B (sf) Ratings Affirmed A3(G) AA- (sf) D CCC (sf) =========== S W E D E N =========== SAS GROUP: Gets Nod From 8 Pilot/Crew Unions on New Labor Deal -------------------------------------------------------------- Ola Kinnander at Bloomberg News reports that SAS Group's plans to eliminate jobs and shrink the business won the backing of all eight unions representing pilots and the bulk of cabin crew on Monday, Nov. 19, as Scandinavia's biggest airline fights to stay afloat. The airline previously set a Sunday, Nov. 18, deadline to reach deals with unions. The Wall Street Journal's Anna Molin and Niclas Rolander relate that the Danish union representing cabin-crew members, CAU, held out the longest, but by midafternoon Monday agreed on a new deal. Bloomberg, citing the unions, notes that the newly hatched deal covers 600 Swedish cabin crew, freezing pay through 2014 and lifting the retirement age to 65. Spokeswoman Jennie Zetterstroem told Bloomberg that terms accepted by the Swedish cabin-crew group also include a tightening of travel and overtime payments, though there are no regular salary cuts, and the union is "very satisfied under the circumstances." The Journal, in a separate report, cites that as part of the new union agreements, pilots will take a pay cut corresponding to one month's salary and be obliged to work 7% more days in a year. SAS is targeting SEK3 billion (US$440 million) in cost reductions as it seeks an extension of credit lines, Bloomberg discloses. Majority of SAS' credit facilities extend through June 2013 and a new credit deal will extend larger credit lines through the first quarter of 2015, The Journal notes in a separate report. "They must reach agreement with everybody or the banks won't agree to the new credit facility," Kenneth Sivertsen, an analyst at Arctic Securities in Oslo, said, as quoted by Bloomberg in a Nov. 20 report. "Presale of SAS tickets is dropping dramatically, which means a cash hit, and suppliers of fuel and food may start requesting payments upfront." With the new union agreement, SAS's board has determined that the conditions are now in place to implement its cost-savings plan and get the credit facilities it needs, The Journal relays. The airline now needs parliamentary approval from Sweden and Norway, its key shareholders along with Denmark, which is expected to be a formality if SAS implements its plan, The Journal adds. "This is the result of very hard work and a strong sense of responsibility by union representatives, first and foremost," The Journal quoted Chief Executive Rickard Gustafson as saying in Copenhagen. "This is a big day for SAS. Now we have laid a foundation which we will continue to work on." SAS AB -- http://www.sasgroup.net/-- is a Sweden-based company, engaged in the air transport services. It is a parent company within SAS Group, which operates within two business areas. The Core SAS segment encompasses airline services in the Nordic countries, as well as intercontinental flights through SAS Scandinavian Airlines, as well regional airlines in Norway through Wideroe and in Finland through Blue1. The SAS Individual Holdings segment comprises operations of Estonian Air, bmi, All Cargo, Skyways, Air Greenland, Spirit and Trust. SAS AB's fleet encompasses ten planes. In addition, the Company offers ground handling services and technical maintenance for the aircraft, as well as air freight solutions and cargo capacity on passenger aircraft, purely cargo aircraft and cargo handling. The Group is also involved in the trainings within the technical aviation field. * * * As reported by the Troubled Company Reporter-Europe on Jan. 2, 2012, Moody's Investors Services maintained the Probability of Default ratings and Long Term Corporate Family (foreign currency) ratings of Caa1 on SAS AB at 'Caa1'. SAS GROUP: S&P Cuts CCR to 'CCC+' on Restructuring Uncertainty -------------------------------------------------------------- Standard and Poor's Rating Services said on Nov. 19, 2012, it lowered to 'CCC+' from 'B-' its long-term corporate credit rating on Sweden-based airline group SAS AB. At the same time, it placed the rating on CreditWatch with negative implications. The downgrade and CreditWatch placement follow SAS' announcement of its latest restructuring and refinancing plan. "In our opinion, there is uncertainty surrounding the plan and this has damaged customer and supplier confidence in SAS. We see a risk that this could continue to adversely affect SAS' ticket sales and increase its near-term liquidity risks," S&P said. The group's major shareholders and banks have agreed to increase the size of its revolving credit facility (RCF) to SEK3.5 billion from SEK3.1 billion, and to extend the term to March 2015. However, availability of the new RCF is subject to final documentation, parliamentary approval, and a new restructuring plan that partly depends on the support of labor unions. SAS has managed to reach agreements in principle with the majority of its labor unions. "However, we believe that should discussions with the final labor union prove unsuccessful and/or protracted, the group would face a significant increase in near- term liquidity risk. This risk would be especially acute if key suppliers tighten their payment terms, which would lead to significant cash outflows from SAS. Furthermore, demand in the airline industry is highly correlated with customer confidence and we see a risk that the uncertainty surrounding the restructuring could lead to a material decrease in ticket sales over the coming months. Therefore, in our opinion, it is crucial for the group's ongoing survival that it executes its plan in a timely manner," S&P said. "Our current base-case credit scenario assumes that SAS is successful in securing agreements with all of its labor unions. However, we believe that market conditions will become increasingly difficult for SAS in 2013, particularly taking into consideration the damage that the ongoing restructuring has done to its brand," S&P noted. "We see significant downside risk to our current base case should customer confidence deteriorate any further. We have seen in the past that airlines that lose customers' confidence in booking their services lose a significant proportion of their ticket sales in the short term," according to S&P. The CreditWatch placement reflects the possibility of S&P downgrading SAS further if it believes that it is unlikely to finalize its restructuring and refinancing plan, or likely to suffer from increased near-term liquidity risk or enter into creditor protection. "We aim to resolve the CreditWatch within the next three months, once the restructuring and refinancing are finalized and we can gauge the effect of the plan on SAS' credit quality," S&P said. "We will assess the impact of the damage to SAS' brand, and the effect of this damage on ticket sales, as well as the potentially positive effect of the restructuring on SAS' cost position. =========================== U N I T E D K I N G D O M =========================== ATH RESOURCES: Becap Fund Acquires Some of Banking Facilities ------------------------------------------------------------- Gareth Mackie at The Scotsman reports that ATH Resources on Nov. 19 said a fund controlled by turnaround specialist Better Capital had acquired some of its banking facilities. Last month, the company's future was thrown into doubt after it called in Deloitte to look at options including restructuring or a sale of the business, the Scotsman recounts. According to the Scotsman, ATH said its lenders, Clydesdale Bank and HSBC, had sold some of its banking facilities to Becap Fund, which is controlled by Jon Moulton's Better Capital. The group had told investors last month that the value of their shares could be wiped out under any restructuring, and while it reiterated that warning, it said its new lender may be prepared to inject new capital into the business following a review, the Scotsman relates. Better Capital said its fund had committed GBP15 million to the "special purpose vehicle" used to acquire ATH's banking facilities, the Scotsman notes. ATH Resources is a Doncaster-based coal miner. The company employs more than 300 people at its five Scottish open cast mines. DECO 12 - UK 4: S&P Lowers Rating on Class D Notes to 'CCC-' ------------------------------------------------------------ Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its ratings on DECO 12 - UK 4 PLC's class B to D notes. "At the same time, we have affirmed our ratings on the class E and F notes. Our ratings on the class A1 and A2 notes are unaffected by the rating actions," S&P said. DECO 12 - UK 4 closed in 2007. The loans were originated by Deutsche Bank AG (London branch) and are secured by U.K. properties. "The rating actions follow the interest shortfalls on the class D, E, and F notes on the October 2012 payment date. According to the cash manager, interest shortfalls under the class D, E, and F notes resulted from an appraisal reduction on the Borehamwood loan, limiting the amount available to draw on the liquidity facility for that loan. In addition, the liquidity facility cannot be used to cover special servicing fees on the loans and extraordinary fees/expenses incurred by the issuer are not able to be absorbed by the class X notes," S&P said. "In our opinion, extraordinary fees/expenses may increase in the future, as loans are either enforced or put into receivership, thereby incurring further costs and/or are subject to an appraisal reduction factor. This would limit the amount available that the liquidity facility can draw on an individual loan, which could create increased interest shortfalls," S&P said. "As a result of new valuations, the LMM Overseas and Group 7 Suffolk loans have both received appraisal reductions. At present, both loans are paying interest in full. However, due to the appraisal reductions, the liquidity facility may not be able to cover future interest shortfalls, in particular on the LMM Overseas loan due to its 169% appraisal reduction factor. In our view, this increases the potential risk of shortfalls to the higher classes of notes," S&P said. "As a consequence of the factors, we have lowered our ratings on the class B, C, and D notes to reflect the increased risk of cash flow disruptions and potential interest shortfalls. We have affirmed our ratings on the class E and F notes, which are already rated 'D (sf)' due to continued interest shortfalls. The ratings on the class A1 and A2 notes are unaffected by the rating actions," S&P said. "On Nov. 7, 2012, we published our updated criteria for rating European commercial mortgage-backed securities. The criteria update refines the approach to rating European CMBS transactions, and provides a more transparent framework for analyzing the commercial real estate assets and transaction structures commonly associated with European CMBS. We expect that the criteria update will have a moderate impact on outstanding ratings on European CMBS, based on a sample of transactions we tested. The impact on investment-grade ratings is likely to be greater than that on speculative-grade ratings," S&P said. "These criteria will be effective for all in-scope ratings from Dec. 6, 2012, at which time we expect to place all the ratings likely to be affected on CreditWatch. We expect to resolve any rating changes within 6 months of the effective date of the criteria," S&P said. STANDARD & POOR'S 17G-7 DISCLOSURE REPORT SEC Rule 17g-7 requires an NRSRO, for any report accompanying a credit rating relating to an asset-backed security as defined in the Rule, to include a description of the representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors and a description of how they differ from the representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms in issuances of similar securities. The Rule applies to in-scope securities initially rated (including preliminary ratings) on or after Sept. 26, 2011. If applicable, the Standard & Poor's 17g-7 Disclosure Report included in this credit rating report is available at: http://standardandpoorsdisclosure-17g7.com RATINGS LIST Class Rating To From DECO 12 - UK 4 PLC GBP672.884 Million Commercial Mortgage-Backed Floating-Rate Notes Ratings Lowered B BBB (sf) A- (sf) C B- (sf) BB+ (sf) D CCC- (Sf) B- (sf) Ratings Affirmed E D (sf) F D (sf) Ratings Unaffected A1 A (sf) A2 A (sf) GLOBAL SHIP: Has US$8.3 Million Net Income in Third Quarter ----------------------------------------------------------- Global Ship Lease, Inc., recorded net income of US$8.34 million on US$39.45 million of time charter revenue for the three months ended Sept. 30, 2012, compared with a net loss of US$935,000 on US$38.67 million of time charter revenue for the same period during the prior year. For the nine months ended Sept. 30, 2012, Global Ship reported net income of US$23.80 million on US$117.03 million of time charter revenue, compared with a net loss of US$1.78 million on $116.55 million of time charter revenue for the same period during the prior year. The Company's balance sheet at Sept. 30, 2012, showed US$907.84 million in total assets, US$549.46 million in total liabilities and US$358.38 million in total stockholders' equity. Ian Webber, chief executive officer of Global Ship Lease, stated, "We generated strong results for the third quarter, despite challenging conditions in the container shipping industry. We successfully maintained our entire fleet on charters during the quarter including two charter renewals, enabling us to achieve utilization of 99.2% and EBITDA of US$26.9 million. With contracted revenue for our 17 vessels of US$1.1 billion and an average remaining charter term of 7.6 years, we are optimistic about the outlook for our business." Mr. Webber continued, "We repaid US$23 million of debt during the third quarter, further strengthening our balance sheet. Net bank debt at September 30, 2012 was US$407.4 million and trailing 12 months Adjusted EBITDA was US$105.4 million giving a net bank debt to Adjusted EBITDA ratio of 3.9. Due to continued pressure on asset values, we proactively approached our bank group to secure a waiver from our upcoming loan-to-value test due November 30, 2012. Our stable business model has enabled us to agree with our lenders to suspend this requirement for a further two years. With the new waiver in place, we have no exposure to the volatility of asset values and will continue to deploy our strong cash flow to aggressively repay debt. Importantly, the Leverage Ratio has no direct impact on our ability to generate stable revenue and predictable cash flows." A copy of the press release is available for free at: http://is.gd/jVl8l9 About Global Ship Lease London, England-based Global Ship Lease (NYSE: GSL, GSL.U and GSL.WS) -- http://www.globalshiplease.com/-- is a containership charter owner. Incorporated in the Marshall Islands, Global Ship Lease commenced operations in December 2007 with a business of owning and chartering out containerships under long-term, fixed rate charters to world class container liner companies. Global Ship Lease owns 17 vessels with a total capacity of 66,297 TEU with a weighted average age at June 30, 2010, of 6.3 years. All of the current vessels are fixed on long-term charters to CMA CGM with an average remaining term of 8.6 years. The Company has contracts in place to purchase two 4,250 TEU newbuildings from German interests for approximately $77 million each that are scheduled to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2010. The Company also has agreements to charter out these newbuildings to Zim Integrated Shipping Services Limited for seven or eight years at charterer's option. As reported in the Dec. 1, 2012, edition of the TCR, Global Ship Lease disclosed that it had entered into an agreement with its lenders to waive until Nov. 30, 2012, the requirement under its credit facility to conduct loan-to-value tests. The credit facility requires that loan-to-value, which is the ratio of outstanding borrowings under the credit facility to the aggregate charter-free market value of the secured vessels, cannot exceed 75%. MALL FUNDING: S&P Lowers Rating on Class A Notes to 'BB+' --------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered to 'BB+ (sf)' from 'BBB- (sf)' its credit rating on The Mall Funding PLC's class A notes. "The Mall Funding is a single-borrower secured loan transaction backed by a portfolio of U.K. shopping centers. We initially assigned ratings to this transaction when it closed in April 2005, when it had a securitized balance of GBP1.06 billion. A tap issuance occurred in September 2006, increasing the number of assets to 23 and the note balance to GBP1.435 billion. In 2010, the transaction was restructured, extending the loan maturity to 2015 and legal final maturity to 2017. There are currently eight remaining shopping centers with an aggregate senior loan balance of GBP570 million," S&P said. "We have taken the rating action in light of our view on the continued challenges posed in the current U.K. commercial real estate market, which have led to decline in net operating income for the underlying assets in this transaction," S&P said. "In July 2010, the noteholders agreed to the proposal for a restructuring of the transaction, which resulted in a loan extension to April 22, 2015 (from April 22, 2012), while keeping the tail period unchanged at two years. Amortization targets and loan-to-value (LTV) ratio covenants were introduced from 2012 and so far both of these have been met through a number of sales-- most recently Castle Mall Shopping Centre in Norwich," S&P said. "Since the restructuring, the retail sector has continued to experience difficulties, with tenants coming under pressure from the current economic conditions and a volatile trading environment. Tenant incentive packages have increased as have unit vacancy periods. Together, these factors have caused a gradual decline in rental income across the portfolio of shopping centers," S&P said. "These factors are likely to put further pressure on the borrower to maintain its required amortization targets and LTV ratio trigger. We believe that, although the loan maturity in 2015 represents time to improve income and capital appreciation through asset management initiatives, this will continue to be a challenge in the current economic climate and refinance risk has therefore increased," S&P said. "Furthermore, in our opinion, the two-year tail period could add further pressure to dispose of the assets in a limited timeframe. Accordingly, we have lowered our rating on the class A notes to 'BB+ (sf)' from 'BBB- (sf)'," S&P said. "The transaction originally closed in April 2005. The loan backing this transaction financed a portfolio of 20 U.K. shopping centers. In October 2006, following a tap issuance, three additional assets were added to the portfolio. The Mall Funding is one of the largest U.K. in-town shopping center investment vehicles and is sponsored by Aviva Investors and Capital & Regional PLC," S&P said. POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF PROPOSED CRITERIA CHANGES "On Nov. 7, 2012, we published our updated criteria for European commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). The criteria update refines the approach to rating European CMBS transactions, and provides a more transparent framework for analyzing the commercial real estate assets and transaction structures commonly associated with European CMBS. We expect that the criteria update will have a moderate impact on outstanding ratings on European CMBS, based on a sample of transactions we tested. The impact on investment-grade ratings is likely to be greater than that on speculative-grade ratings," S&P said. "These criteria will be effective for all in-scope ratings from Dec. 6, 2012, at which time we expect to place all the ratings likely to be affected on CreditWatch. We expect to resolve any rating changes within six months of the effective date of the criteria," S&P said. STANDARD & POOR'S 17G-7 DISCLOSURE REPORT SEC Rule 17g-7 requires an NRSRO, for any report accompanying a credit rating relating to an asset-backed security as defined in the Rule, to include a description of the representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors and a description of how they differ from the representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms in issuances of similar securities. The Rule applies to in-scope securities initially rated (including preliminary ratings) on or after Sept. 26, 2011. If applicable, the Standard & Poor's 17g-7 Disclosure Report included in this credit rating report is available at: http://standardandpoorsdisclosure-17g7.com METRIX FUNDING I: S&P Withdraws 'BB-' Ratings on 2 Note Classes --------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services withdrew its credit ratings on Metrix Funding No. 1 PLC's class A1, A2, A3, B1, B2, B3, C1, and C2 notes, and affirmed and withdrew its ratings on the class D1, D2, E1, E2, and E3 notes. "We have withdrawn our ratings on the class A1, A2, A3, B1, B2, B3, C1, and C2 notes as they were fully amortized on the May and August 2012 payment dates," S&P said. "After this, and since the pool factor was less than 10%, the issuer fully redeemed the remaining class D1, D2, E1, E2, and E3 notes on Nov. 13, 2012. The issuer fully paid down the principal balance and accrued interest. Therefore, we have affirmed and withdrawn our ratings on these classes of notes," S&P said. STANDARD & POOR'S 17G-7 DISCLOSURE REPORT SEC Rule 17g-7 requires an NRSRO, for any report accompanying a credit rating relating to an asset-backed security as defined in the Rule, to include a description of the representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms available to investors and a description of how they differ from the representations, warranties and enforcement mechanisms in issuances of similar securities. The Rule applies to in-scope securities initially rated (including preliminary ratings) on or after Sept. 26, 2011. If applicable, the Standard & Poor's 17g-7 Disclosure Report included in this credit rating report is available at: http://standardandpoorsdisclosure-17g7.com RATINGS LIST Class Rating To From Metrix Funding No. 1 PLC EUR863.47 Million, GBP682 Million, and US$1.274 Billion Floating- Rate Notes Ratings Withdrawn A1 NR AA- (sf) A2 NR AA- (sf) A3 NR AA- (sf) B1 NR A- (sf) B2 NR A- (sf) B3 NR A- (sf) C1 NR BB- (sf) C2 NR BB- (sf) Ratings Affirmed and Withdrawn D1 CCC (sf) NR CCC (sf) D2 CCC (sf) NR CCC (sf) E1 CCC- (sf) NR CCC-(sf) E2 CCC- (sf) NR CCC-(sf) E3 CCC- (sf) NR CCC-(sf) NR - Not rated. PHONES4U FINANCE: S&P Cuts Long-Term Corp. Credit Rating to 'B' --------------------------------------------------------------- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered to 'B' from 'B+' its long-term corporate credit rating on U.K.-based mobile phone retailer Phones4u Finance PLC (Phones4u). The outlook is stable. "At the same time, we lowered our issue rating on Phones4u's GBP125 million super senior revolving credit facility (RCF) to 'BB-' from 'BB'. We also lowered our issue rating on the company's GBP430 million senior secured notes to 'B' from 'B+'," S&P said. "The downgrade reflects our view that Phones4u's gross operating margin will continue to decline due to strong competition, and increasing marketing and new store costs. The ongoing decline in the margin is likely to pressure Phones4u's business and financial risk profiles, which we currently assess as 'weak' and 'aggressive,'" S&P said. "Phones4u achieved 11% year-on-year sales growth in the 12 months to Sept. 30, 2012, driven by new store openings and increased marketing investment. However, the company's Standard & Poor's- adjusted EBITDA margin declined to 12.8%, from 15.0% in the same period to Sept. 30, 2011. We forecast that in the full year to Dec. 30, 2012 (financial 2012), reported EBITDA will be broadly in line with 2011, at about GBP120 million," S&P said. "While Phones4u's year-to-date sales growth of about 15% is broadly line with our forecasts for financial 2012, flat earnings and the declining operating margin have caused the company's credit metrics to fall below our guidelines for a 'B+' rating. This rating reflected our previous assumptions of both sales and EBITDA margin growth, and consequently significant deleveraging in terms of our lease-adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio. For financial 2012, we now anticipate that Phone4u's adjusted debt to EBITDA will be close to 5x, and funds from operations (FFO) to debt will be slightly less than 15%, with both ratios being weak for an 'aggressive' financial risk profile," S&P said. "Phones4u has been unable to grow its earnings despite sales growth on the back of its rapid store expansion strategy (it opened about 70 new stores in 2012). This is because Phones4u faces increasing price competition from its main competitor Carphone Warehouse Europe (not rated), and from mobile network operators such as Everything Everywhere (BBB-/Positive/A-3); Vodafone Group PLC (A-/Stable/A-2); and O2, which is part of Telefonica S.A. (BBB/Watch Neg/A-2)," S&P said. "In our view, Phones4u should be able to generate positive discretionary cash flow and offset ongoing margin pressure to some degree through revenue growth on the back of new store openings and continued demand for new mobile devices," S&P said. "We could lower the rating if Phones4u does not achieve revenue growth in the mid-single digits, or if its gross operating margin continues to deteriorate, causing earnings to fall, adjusted debt to EBITDA to sustainably exceed 5x, or discretionary cash flow to turn negative. Ratings pressure may also arise if Phones4u adopts more aggressive financial policies to fund shareholder remuneration or if it increases capex significantly to expand into new areas of business," S&P said. "A positive rating action would be linked to stabilizing margins and strong earnings growth, with adjusted debt to EBITDA falling to less than 4x and FFO to debt rising to more than 20%," S&P said. PIONEER POINT: Seeks Recognition of UK Proceedings -------------------------------------------------- Administrators of Pioneer Point Limited filed a Chapter 15 bankruptcy petition in Manhattan (Bankr. S.D.N.Y. Case No. 12-14615) to seek recognition of the company's administration proceeding in the United Kingdom. Formerly known as Empire (SPV) Limited, Pioneer is the owner of a real estate development project in Ilford, England, consisting of two towers containing approximately 290 residential units and several ground floor commercial units. Pioneer breached various obligations to Landesbank Hessen-Thuringen Gironzentrale, which was owed GBP108.2 million as of March 2012. After talks for a restatement of the facility broke down, Landesbank sought appointment of administrators under the Insolvency Act 1986 of the United Kingdom. The administrators, namely Trevor Patrick O'Sullivan and David John Dunckley, both from Grant Thornton UK LLP, filed the Chapter 15 petition with a U.S. bankruptcy court to avoid and resolve disputes with Global Design Strategies LLC. Pursuant to an agreement dated Sept. 8, 2010, New York-based GDS agreed to provide certain art and design consultancy services in connection with the development of Pioneer's properties. In September, GDS tendered an invoice in the sum of GBP407,000. The administrators are concerned that, within the context of any future dispute with GDS, GDS may commence legal or arbitral proceedings against Pioneer in New York pursuant to the GDS Agreement which endows the courts of New York with exclusive jurisdiction over any such disputes. The administrators say that the cost of defending any legal or arbitral proceedings in New York would be prohibitively expensive as well as disruptive to their efforts in the U.K. proceeding to rehabilitate Pioneer. By granting recognition, the U.S. Bankruptcy Court would empower the administrators to deal with any action or proceeding commenced in the United States. VICTORIA FUNDING: Fitch Affirms 'Csf' Rating on Class E Notes ------------------------------------------------------------- Fitch Ratings has downgraded Victoria Funding (EMC III) plc's commercial mortgage-backed notes due 2014 notes, as follows: -- GBP0.2m class D (XS0231023077) downgraded to 'BBBsf' from 'Asf'; Outlook Negative -- GBP1.9m class E (XS0231024802) affirmed at 'Csf'; Recovery Estimate (RE) 30% The downgrade of the class D notes reflects the short duration until legal final maturity of the notes, in April 2014. With less than 18 months remaining, the agency has applied a 'BBBsf' rating cap -- despite the low leverage of the class D notes -- in order to reflect growing risk that unforeseen delays might jeopardize recovery in time for bond maturity. Meanwhile, the reduction in the RE for the class E notes takes into consideration further reductions in estimated net recoveries, resulting from sharp market value declines, as a result of a forced sale of the asset in a depressed investment market. The collateral consists of a single Coventry-based tertiary retail asset securing the sole loan in the pool, which is in default. Having failed to refinance the loan or sell the asset prior to loan maturity (September 30, 2011), the borrower of the Brisk loan went into bankruptcy in August 2012. An administrative receiver has been appointed and will be considering what options it has in order to realise value from the property. As at the last interest payment date, loan interest coverage was 1.36x, which will broaden the options available. However, interest due on the Brisk loan, which will increase as penalty interest is applied, is likely to still result in the class E notes failing to be serviced in full. As this shortfall falls on the class E notes, formal default of this instrument is only a matter of time. Given the depressed investment market and the tertiary quality of the asset, Fitch expects a significant loan loss to be borne exclusively by class E noteholders, as reflected in the ratings. The agency estimates a principal recovery for this class in the region of 30%. =============== X X X X X X X X =============== * Large Companies with Insolvent Balance Sheets ----------------------------------------------- Total Shareholders Total Equity Assets Company Ticker (US$MM) (US$MM) ------- ------ ------ ------ AUSTRIA ------- CHRIST WATER TEC 8131204Q GR -5754285.054 165995618.1 CHRIST WATER TEC CWT EO -5754285.054 165995618.1 CHRIST WATER TEC CWTE IX -5754285.054 165995618.1 CHRIST WATER TEC CWT AV -5754285.054 165995618.1 CHRIST WATER TEC CRSWF US -5754285.054 165995618.1 CHRIST WATER TEC CWT PZ -5754285.054 165995618.1 CHRIST WATER TEC CWT EU -5754285.054 165995618.1 CHRIST WATER-ADR CRSWY US -5754285.054 165995618.1 LIBRO AG LBROF US -110486313.8 174004185 LIBRO AG LIB AV -110486313.8 174004185 LIBRO AG LIBR AV -110486313.8 174004185 LIBRO AG LB6 GR -110486313.8 174004185 S&T SYSTEM I-ADR STSQY US -38841439.51 182832494.8 S&T SYSTEM INTEG SYA GR -38841439.51 182832494.8 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-89480492.56 159076577.5 SKYEUROPE HLDG SKURF US -89480492.56 159076577.5 SKYEUROPE HOL-RT SK1 AV -89480492.56 159076577.5 BELGIUM ------- AMERIKAANSE STOC 4163533Z BB -1513887.956 225769572.9 ANTWERP GATEWAY 496769Z BB -56441017.57 244539471.2 BIO ANALYTICAL R 3723198Z BB -41974594.66 193574592.4 CHIQUITA FRESH B 3727690Z BB -13035568.06 126531721.7 COMPAGIMMOBDU BR 3727538Z BB -3827271.16 143566526.3 DOOSAN BENELUX S 3724234Z BB -81416359 231093378.4 EXPLORER NV 4289181Z BB -17703159.47 266681154.3 FINANCIETOREN NV 3729210Z BB -42317802.71 777656536.7 IDEAL STANDARD I 4492755Z AV -912413970.6 2064684812 IDEAL STANDARD I 0288212Z BB -676607228.5 1580042243 IRUS ZWEIBRUCKEN 3738979Z BB -12563627.16 113270540 JULIE LH BVBA 3739923Z BB -32842124.57 159062205.9 KBC LEASE BELGIU 3723398Z BB -36721028.1 2861898350 LAND VAN HOP NV 3727898Z BB -141334.2956 138885001.8 NYNAS NV 3734766Z BB -7050037.824 133049490.2 ORACLE BELGIUM B 4525199Z AV -11669893.04 255041441.5 PHOTOVOLTECH NV 3557498Z 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166070003.7 VIRGIN MOBILE VGMHF US -392165409.3 166070003.7 VIRGIN MOBILE VMOB PO -392165409.3 166070003.7 VIRGIN MOBILE VMOB VX -392165409.3 166070003.7 VIRGIN MOBILE UEM GR -392165409.3 166070003.7 VIRGIN WINGS LTD 4500155Z LN -410616776.7 5155268566 VOLUTION GROUP L 4453393Z LN -44375617.45 212542790.8 VOYAGE GROUP LTD 4168725Z LN -89543682.76 572205624 WARNER ESTATE WRL GR -80276070.4 344291592.8 WARNER ESTATE WNER PZ -80276070.4 344291592.8 WARNER ESTATE WNEHF US -80276070.4 344291592.8 WARNER ESTATE WNER VX -80276070.4 344291592.8 WARNER ESTATE WNER EO -80276070.4 344291592.8 WARNER ESTATE WNER LN -80276070.4 344291592.8 WARNER ESTATE WNERGBP EO -80276070.4 344291592.8 WARNER ESTATE WNER PO -80276070.4 344291592.8 WARNER ESTATE WNER IX -80276070.4 344291592.8 WARNER ESTATE WNER EU -80276070.4 344291592.8 WATSON & PHILIP WTSN LN -120493900 252232072.9 WEAVER VALE HOUS 3953220Z LN -60271595.72 104022836.2 WESCOT TOPCO LTD 4007020Z LN -28467510.91 115035189 WEST HAM UNITED 1275834Z LN -60233495.23 174701255.1 WHELCO HOLDINGS 2741744Z LN -1295249.714 100781831 WHITE HART LANE 2004631Z LN -2707112.668 144247464.4 WIGHTLINK LTD 1385642Z LN -15131435.92 231775265.6 WILLIAM HILL-W/I 605547Q US -59180694.37 1343662688 WILLIAM HILL-W/I 101001Q LN -59180694.37 1343662688 WINCANTON PL-ADR WNCNY US -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1 S1 -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN IX -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN12 EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN LN -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN10 EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1EUR EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1 TQ -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1EUR EU -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1 EU -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1 EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1USD EU -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN PO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN9 EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN6 EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN13 EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1GBP EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1 QM -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN4 EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN5 EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN11 EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN7 EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WNCNF US -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1 BQ -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1 EB -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN VX -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1 NQ -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN PZ -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN1USD EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINCANTON PLC WIN8 EO -429205125.4 907823159.4 WINDSOR TELEVISI 1475394Z LN -249144874.4 319668047.9 WINTERTHUR FINAN 1353474Z LN -5097471.01 146472274 XCHANGING UK LTD 1814130Z LN -33399235.51 334395990.3 XSTRATA SERVICES 1975918Z LN -96321998.22 192299104.1 YANG MING UK LTD 1756777Z LN -38774828.18 293310550.5 YARLINGTON HOUSI 4435313Z LN -18443811.91 276648958.8 YOUNG'S BLUECRES 1841386Z LN -45872663.66 308087238.8 ZURICH EMPLOYMEN 1292298Z LN -122911831.6 159138559.6 ********* Monday's edition of the TCR delivers a list of indicative prices for bond issues that reportedly trade well below par. Prices are obtained by TCR editors from a variety of outside sources during the prior week we think are reliable. Those sources may not, however, be complete or accurate. The Monday Bond Pricing table is compiled on the Friday prior to publication. Prices reported are not intended to reflect actual trades. Prices for actual trades are probably different. Our objective is to share information, not make markets in publicly traded securities. Nothing in the TCR constitutes an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security of any kind. It is likely that some entity affiliated with a TCR editor holds some position in the issuers' public debt and equity securities about which we report. Each Tuesday edition of the TCR contains a list of companies with insolvent balance sheets whose shares trade higher than US$3 per share in public markets. At first glance, this list may look like the definitive compilation of stocks that are ideal to sell short. Don't be fooled. Assets, for example, reported at historical cost net of depreciation may understate the true value of a firm's assets. A company may establish reserves on its balance sheet for liabilities that may never materialize. The prices at which equity securities trade in public market are determined by more than a balance sheet solvency test. A list of Meetings, Conferences and Seminars appears in each Thursday's edition of the TCR. Submissions about insolvency- related conferences are encouraged. Send announcements to conferences@bankrupt.com Each Friday's edition of the TCR includes a review about a book of interest to troubled company professionals. All titles are available at your local bookstore or through Amazon.com. Go to http://www.bankrupt.com/booksto order any title today. ********* S U B S C R I P T I O N I N F O R M A T I O N Troubled Company Reporter-Europe is a daily newsletter co- published by Bankruptcy Creditors' Service, Inc., Fairless Hills, Pennsylvania, USA, and Beard Group, Inc., Frederick, Maryland USA. Valerie U. Pascual, Marites O. Claro, Rousel Elaine T. Fernandez, Joy A. Agravante, Ivy B. Magdadaro, Frauline S. Abangan and Peter A. Chapman, Editors. Copyright 2012. All rights reserved. ISSN 1529-2754. This material is copyrighted and any commercial use, resale or publication in any form (including e-mail forwarding, electronic re-mailing and photocopying) is strictly prohibited without prior written permission of the publishers. Information contained herein is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. The TCR Europe subscription rate is US$625 per half-year, delivered via e-mail. Additional e-mail subscriptions for members of the same firm for the term of the initial subscription or balance thereof are US$25 each. For subscription information, contact Peter Chapman at 240/629-3300. * * * End of Transmission * * *